Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Chet Raymo, “Half Sick Of Shadows”

“Half Sick Of Shadows”
by Chet Raymo

“Who is this woman? Her name is on the prow of her boat: The Lady of Shalott.  Yes, it’s Tennyson’s “Lady of Shalott,” from the poem of 1842, here illustrated by John William Waterhouse in 1888. By some unspecified curse this lovely maiden was confined to a tower…
“Willows whiten, aspens quiver,
Little breezes dusk and shiver
Through the wave that runs for ever
By the island in the river”

near Camelot, where, forbidden to look out the window, she observed the world in a mirror and wove what she saw into a tapestry. So what is she doing in the boat, with her hand-stitched creation? One day, Sir Lancelot rode by her tower alone. She saw him in the mirror and – “half sick of shadows” – couldn’t resist turning to see him unreflected.
“His broad clear brow in sunlight glow’d;
On burnish’d hooves his war-horse trode;
From underneath his helmet flow’d
His coal-black curls as on he rode…”

The mirror cracked. She left her loom, descended from the tower, found a boat, inscribed her name on the prow, and…
“Lying, robed in snowy white
That loosely flew to left and right -
The leaves upon her falling light -
Thro’ the noises of the night”

cast off to drift downstream to Camelot – and to Lancelot. But curses are not to be foiled.

“For ere she reach’d upon the tide
The first house by the water-side,
Singing in her song she died,
The Lady of Shalott.”

We are all of us in a way the Lady of Shalott, all of us who seek to create an image of the world, artists, poets, scientists. We perceive the world through the filter of our limited senses, our biologically evolved brains, our nurtured preconceptions. We weave our tapestries, knowing that our creations are a reflection removed from reality. Our “curse” is to be in love with the real, yet never able to embrace it except in the cold glass of conceptualization. Our legacy? To be found in a boat lodged among the reeds, our tapestry draped across the thwart, with Camelot yet somewhere further down the stream, glistening, beckoning, inescapably out of reach. But, ah, there’s that gorgeous tapestry.

There is another curse, self made, and that is to mistake the mirrorworld for the world outside the window, to fail to recognize the contingency of our conceptualizations, to forego an honest seeking for the falsely found, and – most ominously – to want to impose our own mirrorworld on others.”

"If We Have No Idea..."

“If we have no idea what we believe in, we’ll go along with anything. Truth takes courage. Courage to stand up for what we believe in. Not necessarily in a confrontational way, but in a gentle yet firm way. Like an oak tree, able to sway gently in the wind, but strongly rooted to the ground.”
- A.C. Ping

"Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”

“Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song
Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”
By Melanie Curtin

“Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here’s a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one’s health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.

Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.

According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- “Weightless”- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants’ overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.

Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created “Weightless”, Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener’s heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.

When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer’s, or influenza.

In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you’ve got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.
Full screen highly recommended.
Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, “‘Weightless’ (above) was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous.” So don’t drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:

10. “We Can Fly” by Rue du Soleil (CafĂ© Del Mar)
7. “Pure Shores by All Saints
6. “Please Don’t Go by Barcelona
4. “Watermark” by Enya
2. “Electra” by Airstream
1. “Weightless by Marconi Union

I made a public playlist of all of them on Spotify that runs about 50 minutes (it’s also downloadable).”

"Peak Focus Soft House Study Music with Beta Isochronic Tones"

Full screen recommended
"Peak Focus Soft House Study Music 
with Beta Isochronic Tones"
by Jason Lewis

Headphones Are Not Required
What does this track do? A soft house upbeat study music mix with beta wave isochronic tones. Part of my peak focus for complex tasks series.Designed to produce a deep focus mental state while studying or working. This session stimulates Beta, SMR and Alpha, alternating in 2 minute increments to help keep the user relaxed and engaged. Note: SMR (sensorimotor rhythm) relates to the frequency range between 12 – 15Hz. It’s associated with sensory processing and motor control. Stimulating this can result in relaxed focus and improved attention. This session is meant to speed up the brain while keeping the left hemisphere dominant (good for attention, concentration and reducing emotional response and hyperactivity). ADD and similar disorders are often characterized by “slow-wave” EEG patterns, particularly in the left frontal region. As such, this session stimulates the left brain hemisphere with Beta frequencies and the right with SMR.

Can it be used to help with studying and if so, when should you listen to it? Yes, it can be helpful to use while studying, and if you read through the many comments about this track, you’ll see that many people have successfully used it for studying. You can either listen to it while you are studying, to get your brain into a good mental state when you need it. Or if you are someone that gets a bit distracted by music while studying, listen to it just before you begin.

How Loud Should The Volume Be? There is varying advice and opinions on the impact of volume with brainwave entrainment, with some saying the louder it is the more impact it has. From my own experience, my advice is to play it at a volume level you feel comfortable with. The main thing to consider is that it should be loud enough to hear the repetitive isochronic tones, so you don’t want it so quiet you can hardly hear them. But you also don’t want it so loud that its uncomfortable for you. Somewhere in the middle is my recommendation.

Use this session in the morning or afternoon, to train your brain for better cognition, such as clearer and faster thinking. You can either sit somewhere quiet and comfortable with your eyes closed and give your brain a nice workout, or you can also listen to this while doing an activity that requires a boost in concentration, like studying.

How long should you listen for to get a good effect? It takes around 6 minutes for your brainwaves to fall in step with the tones and become entrained. It then takes time to be guided along the frequency range used in the track. Listening to about half way through is the minimum in my opinion, but 30 minutes is the optimum and preferred length to listen for.

IMPORTANT RECOMMENDATIONS:
• Drink some water – Make sure you are well hydrated before listening to brainwave entrainment.
WHY? Your brain is made up of around 75% water, so it needs plenty of water to function well. When you stimulate your brain in this way, you’re increasing electrical activity and blood flow in the brain and giving your brain a good workout, so it can be a good idea to drink before listening, so that your brain can fire on all cylinders.

• It is not recommended to listen to this while driving or operating machinery.
WHY? Brainwave entrainment involves a process of stimulating your brainwaves and changing your mental state. While this is safe to do and use in normal situations, it can sometimes zone you out during the track, as you focus in on the sound of the tones. This could result in you being distracted temporarily, which is not a good thing while you’re driving or operating machinery. Some people also experience tingling and other sensations from the stimulation. While that might feel quite nice sitting in a comfortable chair at home, it could cause you to be distracted while driving and result in an accident.

• It is not recommended to listen to this while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or any mind altering substance.
WHY? When your brain is under the influence of drugs or alcohol it’s not operating to it’s full capacity, and you react differently to stimulation and situations, compared to when you are sober. So as a precaution and because I don’t know how you will react in that situation, I recommend you do not use it in that situation.

• Who should NOT listen to this audio? Those who should not listen to this video/audio include: Those who are prone to or have had seizures, epilepsy, pregnant or wear a pacemaker should NOT listen to this video/audio.
WHY? There is insufficient research data in this area, so as a precaution, if you are among the categories listed above, I would recommend you consult a doctor or medical professional before listening to this video/audio.”
Comments here:
Whether you want to know it or not we're all in the fight of our lives, for our lives. Some of you reading this will not survive, and I may not either, so I for one will take any edge I can get, and so should you. This works, I suggest you use it.
- CP

The Daily "Near You?"

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"Some Oddities..."

¨"There are some oddities in the perspective with which we see the world. The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be."
- Douglas Adams

"Risk of a Crash is Rising"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/5/22:
"Risk of a Crash is Rising"
"It makes no difference where you live. 
The economy is getting more precarious."
Comments here:

"Just Look At Us..."

"Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality"
- Michael Ellner

"As Robert Oppenheimer said a short while before he died, 'It is perfectly obvious that the whole world is going to hell. The only possible chance that it might not is that we do not attempt to prevent it from doing so.' You see, many of the troubles going on in the world right now are being supervised by people with very good intentions whose attempts are to keep things in order, to clean things up, to forbid this, and to prevent that. The more we try to put everything to rights, the more we make fantastic messes. Maybe that is the way it has got to be. Maybe I should not say anything at all about the folly of trying to put things to right but simply, on the principle of Blake, let the fool persist in his folly so that he will become wise."
- Alan Watts

"A Diagnostic Letter To Our Euro-Peon Vassals, Who Are Dumber Than The Better Class Of Nematode"

"A Diagnostic Letter To Our Euro-Peon Vassals, 
Who Are Dumber Than The Better Class Of Nematode"
by Fred Reed

"Well, I declare. I hear you Europeans bleating and hollering about how unfair life is and you don’t have gas to keep warm if it gets cold in winter, which generally it does, and everything costs too much. Fact is, you deserve it. To be honest, which we journalists sometimes do, I think it’s amusing. It’s like watching a man beating his thumb with a hammer and saying, oh ouch, oh ouch, it hurts, oh ouch, it hurts and can’t figure out why. It’s because Europeans are so easily led, managed, dominated by the fetid Yankee Rome in Washington, which regards you as trained seals. I’ve known fire plugs, even toaster ovens, more intelligent than you are.

You poor widdle fings! You aren’t even real countries. You can’t be a real country when you have American occupation troops and military bases everywhere and uncouth foreign soldiers drinking your beer and diddling your daughters. GIs tell me the Italian ones are best, with English girls often being mistaken for dead. I couldn’t stand the humiliation, but Europeans are a resilient people.

Really, it’s a cackle. Mornings, I fire up the computer to see what you squirming servile dwarves have done now. You are better than Monty Python. Think. Ten years ago you were all peaceful and had plenty of cheap Russian gas and your factories were humming like contented cats and you were buying stuff from Russia and selling it I don’t know what all. Then Master Washington says you have to push the Ukraine toward NATO. You dim twits need Ukraine in NATO like you need a corn cob where the sun don’t shine but Europe is servile by nature, so you say, “Yass, Bwana! What you say, Boss! Which boot we lick first, Massuh?” I see a bull market for flavored boot polish. Brussels would buy trainloads.

Anyway, Russia says over and over and over, If Washington tries to put NATO in Ukraine, dey gonna be wah. Even a European, or some anyway, could understand this. Or maybe, with help from a caring adult. But Massuh Washington wanted wah, and told you to keep pushing, “Yass, Bwana,” and you didn’t listen to Putin, because you are dumber than retarded possums and belong in diapers. What children you are. Nanny nanny booboo.

This is wonderfully funny, and I am enjoying it outrageously. You are going to freeze. Good. It’s a hoot but it’s a Darwin thing too. It’s good for the world when a region with the aggregate IQ of inbred bacteria eliminates itself. Well, except for the Italian girls for the GIs. We’ll keep those. You are going to freeze solid like terra cotta soldiers or burn your houses to keep warm and your farmers will grow scrawny underweight plants because you cut off fertilizer and gas from Russia to show your devotion to your stern Potomac Father. It’s comic. You are so stoopid! When American proconsuls go to Brussels your anointed European butt-sniffers rush out to be patted on the head and, or so I hear, receive suitcases of money. How dignified.

But the funniest part was blowing up the pipelines. Yes. See, Washington couldn’t let Germany, the only potentially serious country in Europe, except it really isn’t one, trade with Russia and China. So it gets the war going in Ukraine, easy with malleable European dimwits, and then…blows up the pipelines! Simple, direct, and effective. The amusing thing is that everyone in Brussels knows perfectly well that America did it, as must every European with the IQ of a doorknob, but none of you weak sisters has the dangling ellipsoidals to say so, because then you would have to do something about it, and you are scared unto death of the United States. Of which the United States is well aware and so, reasonably, holds you in contempt. I do too. I mean doesn’t everybody?

So some silly woman in Belgium - Ursula Borderline or something, anyway a scrawny blonde who looks like she really needs a sandwich - yaps from under the sofa that doing bad things to Europe’s energy infrastructure is “unacceptable,” Grr, bowwow, woof. But sweetheart, you poor, dumb monument to pusillanimous inadequacy, of course it is acceptable. You are accepting it, aren’t you? You know who did it, Washington knows you know, but you will look studiedly puzzled while Washington chuckles inwardly. Europeans are so gelatinous, so weak, so negligible.

I mean, seriously. Suppose you admitted that America did it. What could you poor dears do about it? Nothing. NATO controls Europe. What do you think those bases are for? And Washington is NATO. You wouldn´t dare close even the smallest US base, or even a closet door in one. Haha! Freeze, baby, freeze.

So, suckers, you’ve been taken for a ride by experts. And America makes out like a bandit. Washington tells you who you can trade with, and you obey, yass, Bwana, what you say. America gets to sell you overpriced LNG (liquefied natural gas). You will meekly buy uberbillions of costume-jewelry weapons from America. Your dependence on the US approaches outright ownership. Without cheap Russian gas, electricity will be really pricey and your factories will close or maybe go offshore to America and Europe will get in touch with its inner backwater. Hey, it’s a giggle.

England is America’s most devoted camp follower, a political barnacle firm glued to the ship of the Yankee state, making international noises in an effort to pretend it is more than an American poodle. (You may be wondering how it is possible to be a poodle and a barnacle at the same time. Multiple personality disorder, maybe.) From Brexit we went to endless Truss ads. Now we are back to the standby, hissing at Russia. Yass, Massuh.

You think you are defending democracy, doing something about human rights and, you know, having values or something. No, halfwits, you are helping Washington cut you off from the world’s largest markets. Yes, children. As the rest of Eurasia grows like Topsy, as the center of gravity of technology and economy moves eastward, America will pillage you as you pillaged most of the world and turn you into a peninsular homeless shelter. You will be all grateful to Massuh Washington for saving you from the evil Putin monster who was about to conquer all of Europe and turn you into slaves or robots or something else bad. You will buy lots of dysfunctional fighter planes.

And you will crawl. It is your way."
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.

"How It Really Is"

Yeah...
Any questions?

"Popular Mechanics"

"Popular Mechanics"
by Addison Wiggin

“And if the world went to hell in a handbasket – as it seemed to be doing – you could say good-bye to everyone and retreat to your land, hunkering down and living off it.”
- Jeannette Walls, "Half Broken Horses"

"Yesterday, we got a glimpse of what trader’s call “the dead cat bouncing.” The Dow ended up 2.6%... S&P up 2.5%... even the tech heavy Nasdaq saw gains of 2.2%. Trader’s use the very technical term “dead cat bounce” when the market rallies despite languid fundamentals. Today, the Dow continues to rise. As of this writing it’s up another 2.5%, recresting 30,000 once again.

But that’s the thing about a bouncing cat, what goes up… must come down. The impending energy crisis in Europe and the ongoing saga of the Nordstream pipelines, which we discussed in this week’s Session, will likely weigh heavy on the markets up to and past the mid-term elections in early November.

“You offered your ‘three cents’ on the Nord Stream mystery,” Carl N. writes. “I guess even the usual and historic cost of our thoughts, two cents, is experiencing 50% inflation.” Reader mail of late has made me think back to an experiment my parents tried when I was a kid. They wanted to live off the land. Yes, it was the 70s, but they weren’t hippies, per se. More like old school Yankees. Pragmatic.

They bought and sold old colonial houses in New Hampshire. When I was five, we moved into a house that was built in 1750… in the middle of February. No one had thought to install indoor plumbing, yet. The outhouse was, um, a little icy.

The old house was sitting on 22 acres of land off Emery Road. Plenty enough for a garden to feed a family of four. We grew tomatoes, green beans and peppers, squash and pumpkins. There were chickens. And a dog who birthed puppies we could sell. There was a big forest that extended down to the Lamprey River offering plenty of firewood.
Lamprey River, near Stratham NH, 
where the Emery Road house is located. 

Starting with one pickup truck, my father delivered building supplies to his friends who were working as contractors building new houses, barns and doing odd job repairs. My mother sold flower arrangements on the roadside to pay for our school. I’m relaying this story to point out I was just a kid when the historic 40-year inflation we’ve been writing about today shut down my dad’s business.

The cost of lumber, asphalt shingles and nails was increasing at an unpredictable rate. The oil embargo of ‘73 sent gas up nearly 50% to unheard of $.59 a gallon– that’s if the gas station even had any supply. People stopped driving, building houses or even conceiving of odd jobs. Without much income, my parents sold the farm, took the capital gains and moved us into a more modest home. The next one was newer, maybe 1930s construction, and came equipped with plumbing and heat. In total we lived in nine different houses in Stratham before I left home at 17.

I remember my father used to lie awake on Sunday mornings planning his next project. It was just his thing. One idea led to a solar house he built into a hill with a greenhouse that generated heat. A convection system drew heat from the greenhouse. The air whooshed to the top of the rafters on the third floor… whipped across the highest level… then cooled against a thirty foot concrete retaining wall… dropping under the basement floor boards and returned to the greenhouse. The entire house could be heated in the winter or cooled in the summer using this flow of air. It was amazing to me. Apparently, my dad got the idea from reading an editorial in Popular Mechanics magazine.
An old copy of Popular Mechanics.

“We are eating out and going out less,” writes Juan U. in response to our question from last week: “With inflation on the horizon, how are you cutting back?” The idea was to get a bead on how much inflation and recession fears are changing your personal consumption plans. We want to get a real-world look at a recession. “We stopped discretionary spending,” Juan concludes, “and are now focused on our savings and investing.”

“We’re switching to store brands and foregoing the major labels when shopping,” writes Carl M. “dropping any streaming service that is of little use to us and thinking of dropping cable for internet only. We're eating out less and cooking more at home. Also, no more impulse purchases on Amazon!”

“Absolutely have cut back on spending,” another Carl writes, “Saving all I can to have a reserve to deploy when I think the bottom is close. I also believe every $1 I don’t spend is $5 or $10 I don’t have to earn. And based on your advice living remotely and self-sufficiently.”

“You asked if anyone was cutting cost on food or beverages to write in and let you know,” writes Gary K. “Well we aren't really cutting costs but my wife opened her coffee business in 2004 and started selling a fresh roasted (we roast on site), fresh brewed cup of coffee for $1, and to this day September 29th 2022 she still has a fresh roasted, fresh brewed cup of coffee for $1. This is her way of helping out where she can knowing that everything else is so expensive.”

"The Collapse Of Rome 2.0 Incoming"

"The Collapse Of Rome 2.0 Incoming"
National Debt Surpasses $31 Trillion
by BoatSurfer600

"Zimbabwe R Us. The government has no intention of ever repaying this debt – instead, the Fed will inflate it away, completing its extinction of the American middle class in the process. Got silver? www.foxnews.com/us/national-debt-surpasses-31-trillion

Debt continues to climb even after massive levels of spending during COVID pandemic have waned. It is not only the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle in 40 years. The current U.S. debt to gdp is also more than double the one from 1994 and even more than 3x the one from 1983. How far can they go from here?"

"Everybody Is A Genius..."

Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "It's YODO Time!"

"It's YODO Time!"
Forget HODL, TINA and YOLO...
 here's an acronym for our age...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Baltimore, Maryland - "In the fever and fury of the Great Bubble Epoch a number of short-hand messages were developed.

YOLO – you only live once, was enough to convince risk takers to make their move.
TINA – there is no alternative, described the lack of yield from ‘safe’ treasury bonds, leaving investors with no other choice but to buy stocks.
HODL – ‘hold on for dear life’ was what believers in crypto coins were supposed to do, ignoring the ups and downs of prices.

But now, it’s a new market. You still only live once, but now there’s no guarantee that stocks will go up. As for TINA, now there is an alternative. The 10-year Treasury is paying 3.6%. Not much. But better than losing 10%- 20% more the next drawdown. And HODL if you want… but there are some things you can HODL forever… and they’ll still be worthless.

The world is still the same… humans haven’t changed; we are as dumb and as credulous as ever. But new market conditions require a new anthem. So, we introduce:

YODO – you only die once. Today, we explain why this is a YODO market, not a YOLO market.

The Big Pivot: Yesterday, the dead cat bounced again. Market Watch: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 900 points at its session high and remained on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since June 2020 as equities kicked off the new month and quarter with a sharp bounce. The Dow remained up 890 points, or 3.1%, which would be its largest percentage rise since June 5, 2020."

What’s behind it? Investors saw the Bank of England ‘pivot.’ They saw the Reserve Bank of Australia almost pivot. They saw the government of the UK pivot. Perhaps a bit dizzy, they believe the Fed will soon pivot too. Markets Insider: "The Fed will hike rates once more in November and then stop because the soaring dollar risks breaking markets, market veteran Ed Yardeni says."

That point of view runs counter to market consensus, which currently expects a 75 basis point rate hike in November, followed by a 50 basis point rate hike in December. Some even expect the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in early 2023 before it ultimately pauses, with the Fed fund rate sitting around 4.50%. Apparently, everybody thinks the Fed will pivot – including us. But we do not see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Instead, it’s merely a way to lose more money.

In this opinion, we are joined by Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson. Markets Insider again: "It appears increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will pivot away from its currently hawkish monetary policy as global US dollar liquidity is now in the "danger zone where bad stuff happens," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said in a Monday note. But investors shouldn't put too much stock into a potential pivot by the Fed, he added. That's because an earnings recession is imminent, and potential stock market downside from a sizable earnings decline would likely outweigh the potential upside from a Fed pivot."

The Cat is Dead: The pivot is just part of the trap. If the Fed stops inflating, the bubble economy dies – and stocks along with it. But if it continues to inflate, consumer prices go up… the damage is delayed… though more widespread and unpredictable. Once on the loose, inflation is a hard thing to get back in the barn. People need more and more money just to stay in the same place. Then, it’s almost impossible to tighten the money supply without setting off a depression, probably accompanied by riots and a revolution.

Pivoting will signal to novice investors that the Fed is going to let the good times roll again. But the problem is this: the bons temps are over. The cat is dead. Sales and profits are falling. Stock values will go down. Lowering the Fed Funds rate (still not even half the rate of consumer price increases) will make little difference. Yes, Wall Street may rally for a while. But then, the reality of a recession…or stagflation… is likely to nest in investors’ minds. Nominal prices may go up, but real prices – reduced by inflation – will probably fall.

And it’s not as if investment markets operate in a germ-free laboratory. Not at all. Inflation, recession, war… productivity in reverse, real wages falling, house prices declining… the US empire rolling over… climate alarmists threatening to cut off fuel… warmongers threatening to start WWIII… the most blockheaded Washington in memory… $31 trillion in US federal debt… and $300 trillion in worldwide debt –yes, it’s YODO time now.

As the old timers put it: “your first loss is your best loss.” Because, when your money dies, it is dead forever. It won’t be resurrected. And a U-turn by the Fed won’t take you back where you started. It’s just a different route to Hell."
Joel’s Note: It is not given to man to know his future, much less the next quarter’s performance of his stock market. But history can provide a little guidance. As noted in this space over the weekend, the S&P 500 closed out its worst September in two decades. Before the dead cat bounced this week, it was down ~25% year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq were left similarly sore, off ~21% and ~32%, respectively, for 2022.

Bottom line, as Dan Denning reminded Bonner Private Research members in his Friday note, it was the fourth worst ‘start’ to the year since, well… ever. Here’s Dan, with some history…"The index was down 31.9% through September in 1974 but rallied to finish down ‘just’ 29.6% for the year. In 1931, it was down 28.8% but finished down, gulp, 47.1% for the year. In 2002, it was down 27.2% at the end of September but rallied in the fourth quarter to finish down 23.4%."

Historically, bear market losses have depended on – among other factors – whether the economy fell into an accompanying recession. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed last Thursday what every non-economist in the country already knew: that the US has been in recession for most of this year. Here’s Dan, again, putting some numbers on the table…"Since 1929, the average bear market lasts fourteen months and has a peak-to-trough drawdown of 36%. If there’s no recession, the average bear market lasts twelve months and the average drawdown is 29%."

If you take your bear markets with a side of recession, then the bear market lasts sixteen months and with a 42% drawdown. All these statistics are courtesy of Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors (a must follow on Twitter). Since we’re in a recession (or since we had one in the first eight months of this year with two consecutive quarters of declining GDP), that means we could be looking at a sixteen month bear market with a fall to around 2,782 on the S&P 500 (a 42% decline from the January closing high at 4,796). That’s another 22% below today’s close at 3,585, which by the way breaks the support at 3,600.

As regular readers know, Dan and Tom have advised Maximum Safety Mode throughout this bear market. It’s been the right call so far. But what about the rest of the year? “It’s possible we see a fourth quarter bear market rally,” Dan concluded in Friday’s note, “but if so, we’re staying firmly on the sidelines. The Fed conducted a giant financial experiment by lowering interest rates and keeping them there. An asset price boom ensued. Now comes the bust.”

You know what to do: Engage Maximum Safety, Keep Calm… and Carry On."
Related:

"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This Is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/5/22:
"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This Is Crazy!"
"In today's vlog we are at Sam's Club, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Important Updates"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/5/22:
"Important Updates: 
Stock Market, Debt, Gold, Silver, Crypto, Crude, Dollar, More!"
Comments here:

Tucker Carlson, "The Bobulinski Interview"

Full screen recommended.
Tucker Carlson Tonight, 10/4/22:
"The Bobulinski Interview"
Proof of the Biden crime family's activities.
Comments here:
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
- Taylor Caldwell

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

"A Banking Crisis Looms"

"A Banking Crisis Looms"
by Tuomas Malinen

"My columns have turned rather apocalyptic of late, but for a valid reason. Just this week, we got confirmation that our financial system is, again, on the brink of collapse, when the Bank of England (BOE) was forced to enact, de facto, a bailout of the pension funds of the United Kingdom.

On Sept. 28, around noon, the Bank of England stepped (back) into the gilt markets and started buying government bonds with longer maturities to stop the collapse in their value, which could have caused the financial system to become unhinged. Pension funds were faced with major margin calls, which threatened to cause a rapidly cascading run on their liabilities, as trust in their liquidity and solvency would have become questioned by a widening circle of investors and customers.

Effectively, the BOE stepped in to limit the vicious circle of margin calls faced by pension funds because of the crashing values of the gilts. Without the BOE intervention, mass insolvencies of pension funds, with about $3 trillion worth of assets - and thus most likely other financial institutions - could have commenced on that afternoon. It’s obvious that if one of the major financial hubs of the world, the City of London, would face a financial panic, it would spread to the rest of the world in an instant.

It looks as though the global financial system was pulled from the brink of collapse, once again, by central bankers. However, this was only a temporary fix. It’s now clear that an outright financial collapse threatens all Western economies, because if pension funds, often considered very dull investors because of their risk-averse investing profile, face a threat to their insolvency, it can happen to any other financial institution. I consider that the banking sector will be the next in line.

Banking is a business of trust. If the trust in a bank or in the unlimited support of authorities for the bank, disappears, a bank run commences. One of the most prominent scholars of financial crises, Gary B. Gorton, defines a financial crisis in his book “Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming” as “an event where holders of short-term debt issued by financial intermediaries withdraw en masse or refuse to renew their loans.”

In common language, Gorton says that during financial crises, a large number of holders of banks’ financial liabilities, such as deposits, want to cash out. Hence the name: a bank run. For example, during the Panic of 1819 in the United States, people queued outside banks in long lines to change their new financial innovations, bank notes, to metallic currency. The Panic of 1819 helped to create the first economic depression in the United States.

However, a bank run may not be visible, in the sense that other banks and financial institutions “run” on the liabilities of a bank. For example, during the crisis of 2007–2008, there was a run on sale and repurchase agreements (repo) market, market of commercial paper, and on prime broker balances. Most people didn’t notice these first stages of the panic, because financial firms ran on liabilities and assets of other financial firms. The main point is that, as liabilities are withdrawn in whatever form, en masse, the bank eventually runs out of assets to pledge/sell to fulfill the withdrawal requests, and the bank fails.

Going forward, the biggest risk of a systemic bank run most likely lays in Europe. European companies and households have been and continue to be decimated by ravaging inflation, fast-rising interest rates, and spiking energy prices. They are being hit on all sides, and this will, most likely, cause many of them to fail financially.

Banks are also currently being hit by heavy declines in the value of government bonds, which they use as collateral. These may easily lead to cascading losses on banks, possibly with a never-before-seen speed, size, and width. I find it hard to imagine how these developments wouldn’t lead to a banking crisis, without massive intervention by governments and central banks, that is. And like I’ve been detailing, a banking crisis that begins in Europe, won’t stay there.

How do you prepare for it then? A characteristic feature of a banking crisis is that many banks, possibly all, will close their doors to customers, and issue withdrawal limits. Another characteristic is disruptions in the financial system, most notably on card payments, as a result of which the retail payments system may seize up altogether.

While I was in Greece, in the summer of 2015 with my ex-wife, the whole economy turned into a cash-based one basically over the weekend. The 2015 Greek banking crisis was caused by the European Central Bank, when it, totally irresponsibly and most likely driven by political motives, shut Greek banks from its emergency liquidity assistance.

Cash withdrawal limits were set, credit card machines “disappeared” or “broke down” in restaurants, shops, and more, and finally, cash stopped coming out from the ATMs. Capital controls were enacted, and the ability of ordinary Greeks to transfer money abroad became seriously hindered. We naturally had sufficient cash, which often happens, when one travels with a crisis researcher to a country threatened by a crisis.

The main point is (was), that during banking crises, you won’t have full access to your deposits in the bank. As a result, electronic payments such as bank cards may become useless. In the extreme case, your deposits could be used to recapitalize ailing banks in a process called “bail-in.” Such laws were put in place after the 2008 crisis, and they were enacted for the first time to resolve the banking crisis in Cyprus in 2013. Technically, every sum you have in the bank above the deposit insurance threshold, a limit which also may not be “carved in stone,” is threatened by the bail-ins in a banking crisis.

We warned already in March 2017 that the global financial system, which broke out during the 2008 financial crisis, has never really been healed. We noted that it and the global economy were kept standing merely by continuous central bank and government interventions and nearly unlimited provisions of credit. On Sept. 28, we got a final confirmation from the BOE that this truly is the case.

We are in deep, deep trouble."
Ahh, yes, the vicious circle of margin calls... do you mean "The Truth About The 2.5 Quadrillion Derivatives Bubble" these psychopaths in their infinite greed have created with margin calls? That's a must-read, by the way. Why not at least know why it all, and I mean, ALL, collapses, world wide. You didn't really think you were going to collect that pension, did you? As this article concludes, "We are in deep, deep trouble." To put it mildly...
Related, Must-read:
"Banks Are Over-leveraged 2 QUADRILLION Dollars In Derivatives. 
This Will Be The Worst Financial Collapse EVER"

"A derivative is a contract that derives its value and risk from a particular security (like a stock or commodity) - hence the name derivative. Derivatives are sometimes called secondary securities because they only exist as a result of primary securities like stocks, bonds, and commodities. The four major types of derivative contracts are options, forwards, futures and swaps.

Banks use derivatives to hedge, to reduce the risks involved in the bank’s operations. For example, a bank’s financial profile might make it vulnerable to losses from changes in interest rates. The bank could purchase interest rate futures to protect itself.

Derivatives are a high-risk instrument. The volatile nature of derivatives can lead to huge losses. Moreover, the contracts are designed in such a way that it becomes very complicated for the investors to valuate them."

"The FED Just Flipped Again, Slamming Bonds; Major Grid Collapses Into Darkness"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/4/22:
"The FED Just Flipped Again, Slamming Bonds; 
Major Grid Collapses Into Darkness"
Comments here:

"97.7 Million Birds Are Already Dead As The Worst Bird Flu Outbreak Ever Sweeps Across North America"

Full screen recommended.
"97.7 Million Birds Are Already Dead As The Worst
 Bird Flu Outbreak Ever Sweeps Across North America"
by Epic Economist

"A scary bird flu outbreak is spiraling out of control all across the globe, killing dozens of millions of chickens and turkeys that were supposed to go to our food supply chains during the upcoming holiday season. Experts say the nightmarish pestilence is the worst epidemic of avian influenza ever recorded, and farmers are absolutely terrified by the severity of the situation. Things are escalating quickly, and in the U.S., supplies are getting so tight that consumers have seen egg prices shoot up nearly 40% in August, while the cost of turkey and poultry has been rising almost twice as fast as the official inflation rate. Shortages are expected in the coming weeks and months, and the animal death toll will continue to rise as the weather gets colder and conditions enable the spread of the virus. All this means that our food supply chains are in major trouble, and we’re about to see food prices reach unprecedented highs this fall.

While American farmers struggle to depopulate contaminated flocks, more cases are recorded in several parts of the planet, including in over 30 European countries. According to the Food Safety Authority website, the world is facing the largest epidemic of avian influenza in all history, with over 2,467 outbreaks erupting in Europe alone since the start of the year. Over 47.7 million birds have been culled by poultry facilities where cases of the bird flu have been confirmed in the continent.

What we’re witnessing in America right now is actually worse than what’s happening in Europe. Last month, the total death toll of birds in the U.S. reached a staggering 50 million. Authorities describe the surge as “unprecedented” in scope, breadth, and lethality. Local food producers say that the total number is likely bigger. The official numbers are a “vast undercount,” one Californian farmer said. And though authorities are mainly concerned about poultry farms, the epidemic has struck wild birds, too — from waterfowl to raptors and vultures.

In sum, adding Europe’s 47.7 million dead birds to America’s 50 million dead birds, the global food supply chain has lost a grand total of 97.7 million animals in the past 10 months. The flu is leaving a massive inventory hole in many grocery stores across the nation. Shortages are going to be truly catastrophic, but most people remain unaware of what’s currently going on. Meanwhile, prices continue to climb to sky-highs. The bird flu epidemic pushed the price of turkey hens to soar 30% higher than last year and 80% higher than before the pandemic, and it seems unlikely that will change before the holidays.

This Thanksgiving, turkey shortages are almost certain as grocers run out of the meat and can’t find new suppliers in the market. Many other everyday products that contain chicken and eggs will be harder to find in the weeks and months ahead, which will cause more product stockouts than during last year’s festivities. Poultry farmer, Mark Gordon, said that farmers are “terrified” about the severity of the situation. “We're absolutely terrified of what's going to happen when big numbers of birds are wiped out from the supply chain. We're concerned it could make things a lot worse than it already is,” he stressed.

This is a slow-motion trainwreck that is playing out right before our eyes. A very dangerous development that could make this disaster far, far worse is if the bird flu mutates into a form that can spread easily among humans. We can only hope that this doesn’t happen any time soon. But the truth is that pestilences are becoming increasingly more common all over the world, and many more dangerous and unexpected threats can arise at any moment."

Gerald Celente, "Who Blew Up Nord Stream Pipeline?"

Gerald Celente, 10/4/22:
"Who Blew Up Nord Stream Pipeline?"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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"Russia Deploys Doomsday Nuclear Ocean Drones As Global Economic Meltdown Looms"

 
by Mike Adams

"Russia has now officially deployed the world's largest submarine which can carry up to eight "apocalypse drone" torpedoes. When detonated, one of these drones unleashes a highly destructive, 1,500 foot high radioactive tsunami that inundates coastal areas of the targeted country, rendering them uninhabitable. Notably, America's most important power centers - government, finance, military and trade - are all located near the coasts.

At the same time, the US government and State Dept are pushing Russia toward nuclear war, practically begging for Putin to nuke the United States before Election Day so that Democrats don't have to face an actual election where 20+ states have new election integrity laws in place.

Get the full report on this, plus the Fed's currency wars with Europe, and a special asset protection interview in today's feature article and podcast here:"
"Russian State TV Threatens Nuclear Strike On 
UK And Warns Of Radioactive Tidal Wave"

Musical Interlude: Moby, "Love Of Strings"

Full screen recommended.
Moby, "Love Of Strings"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Here is one of the largest objects that anyone will ever see on the sky. Each of these fuzzy blobs is a galaxy, together making up the Perseus Cluster, one of the closest clusters of galaxies. The cluster is seen through a foreground of faint stars in our own Milky Way Galaxy.
Near the cluster center, roughly 250 million light-years away, is the cluster's dominant galaxy NGC 1275, seen above as a large galaxy on the image left. A prodigious source of x-rays and radio emission, NGC 1275 accretes matter as gas and galaxies fall into it. The Perseus Cluster of Galaxies, also cataloged as Abell 426, is part of the Pisces-Perseus supercluster spanning over 15 degrees and containing over 1,000 galaxies. At the distance of NGC 1275, this view covers about 15 million light-years.”