"Antigone", by Marie Spartali Stillman (1844-1927)
"The Burden of Memory"
Lessons from the past about losses in the future...
by Bill Bonner
"Then reflect, my son: you are poised,
once more, on the razor-edge of fate."
~ Tiresias, Antigone
Youghal, Ireland - "What should an old man do? What should he be? No longer raising children. No longer a captain of industry nor even a cog in the machine. No longer fit for battle or lead man in a rom-com. What is his role? Is it not to remember?
In ancient Ireland, ‘seanachies’ were employed to recall the lessons of the past. Wisemen, poets, and tellers of tales reminded kings and commoners of the great heroes of the past, their triumphs and their defeats. Some were real historical figures. Some were mythological. Scholars differ on what was real and what was not.
They told the story of the Great Queen Mebh (Maeve) of Connaught and the Cattle Raid of Cooley. She is the archetype of the independent, powerful, lusty modern woman. She’s also notable for having 7 sons, each of them named Maine. She wanted Ulster’s best bull; but this set off a familiar cycle of negotiation, treachery, murder, mayhem and war.
And who can forget the mighty Cuchulainn…who single handedly defended Ulster against Mebh’s armies? He had himself tied to a standing stone so he would be sure to die on his feet. They had their moments of glory…and their tragic flaws. Poised on the razor’s edge – all of them.
The Duty of Memory: And now, what should an old man do? Shouldn’t he remind and warn... and remember…the great snowstorm of ’58…the great drought of ’62…the flood of ’75? Shouldn’t he tell his grandchildren to stock up on firewood…and head for high ground? Shouldn’t he recall the bear market of ’66-82…the crash of Japanese stock market in 1990…the inflation of the ‘70s…and the Vietnam War?
Watching for sin with one eye and error with the other…shouldn’t the two eyes come together in a studied warning: ‘I wouldn’t do that if I were you?’ Of course, the young will ignore his unbidden advice. But so what? Just because his counsel is unwelcome doesn’t diminish his duty to give it out plain and simple. And like old, blind Tiresias, he can turn on his heels with a bit of dignity and a little mockery: "Just send me home. You bear your burdens, I’ll bear mine. It’s better that way, please believe me." Later, he can have the pleasure of saying “I told you so.”
There are few advantages of old age. The ‘I-told-you-so’s are one of them. Yes, you can get discount tickets at some theaters…get in free at some museums and the all-you-can eat buffet at 5 pm at some restaurants. But the big advantage is that you have seen more Big Losses. You know what they look like.
What Could Go Wrong? King Creon ignored the blind, old man and went on to suffer the Big Loss. He lost a son and a niece. (This is Greek tragedy, after all.) And if you are over the age of 70, you’ve probably seen some Big Losses yourself. Marriages that broke up, companies that broke down…people who went broke…crashes…murders…massacres…mistakes…lies…vain and transitory glories. And all of us are always perched on a razor’s edge of fate…the sides so close together we can barely tell them apart… And yet, toppling over in the wrong direction can be tragic.
Remember the disappointment felt by investors after the stock market boom ended in 1966…the shock of inflation in the ‘70s…and the debacle of the Vietnam War? In 1966, investors had the Nifty Fifty as their version of today’s Magnificent 7. They were supposed to be ‘one decision’ investments that you could have and hold until death did you part. They were the best companies, in the best stock market, in the best economy, during the best decade, in the best nation in history. Eastman Kodak, 3M, Procter and Gamble – they had the best technology…and so much money; they could hire the best engineers and managers. What could go wrong?
And yet, where did they go after 1966? Nowhere. The group of favorites was more or less flat for the next 16 years. And that was in nominal dollar terms. Adjusted for inflation, investors lost 70% to 80% of their money.
And then came the ‘70s. Inflation came in waves, not just in one single episode. The first splash arrived in 1969, when prices shot up 6%. Then, inflation went down to 3%…and the feds said it was over. But the next wave, in 1974, pushed prices up at a 12% annual rate. After that wave crested, inflation went down to around 6%, and again people said there was no further need to worry about it. The final soak didn’t come until 1979 – 10 years after the first one, with inflation at a 13% rate. If the pattern holds, the next big wave will come in 2032…with the dollar losing about 70% of its value between now and then.
Standard Abandoned
Through much of this period, 1966 to 1975, a morbid absurdity hung over the US – the Vietnam War. The idea was to keep the domino from falling over. Those of us over 70 may recall friends who went to ‘Nam’ and never came back alive. And the US squandered so much money on the war, President Nixon felt obliged to go ‘off the gold standard’ – setting in motion the financialization of the economy…the huge rise in debt…and the approaching bankruptcy of the US empire.
We remember the arguments in favor of continuing the war, now used to prolong the proxy war against Russia: we had to maintain our ‘credibility,’ by stopping them [communists] there; otherwise, we’d have to face them in California. To turn away would be appeasement. (The closest we got, personally, to Vietnam was patrolling the coast of California in a US navy cruiser. Had the North Vietnamese actually had a blue water navy, and had they used it to launch an assault across the vast Pacific, we were ready for them.)
In the event, the domino fell and nobody cared. Americans now take vacations in Vietnam and buy cheap T-shirts and running pants from Vietnamese mills. A trillion dollars down the rathole…a million dead …apparently, for nothing. Yes, like old, blind Tiresias, we’ve seen our share of misery, crackpottery, and jackassery. Shouldn’t we say something?"
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