"Groundhog Day, But It’s The Economy"
by John Wilder
"Back in 2018, 2019, there were few reasons to post contemporary economic posts. I could do what I like to do best, sit back, research, think, and give a few strategic thoughts on what I thought the future would bring. There weren’t a lot of stories of an immediate nature. That had been true (more or less) going back to 2010. The motions in the markets were longer, and we could take the time to post the waves, print bikini-girl graphs, and talk about the problems that were coming.
Now? It’s that damn movie Groundhog Day. I have folders of graphs on economic doom that, in a normal year, where each would be the biggest story in months. In 2022, those stories are coming out every week. Germany collapsing and all of their people are going to be cold in the 2022-2023 winter? Check. Britain collapsing and the latest prime minister wants to (spins wheel) import 50 million illiterate immigrants that marry their first cousins because that’s what will fix Britain’s problem? People literally saying, “Global thermonuclear war? Bah, that’s not as bad as COVID®.
I’m not even making the above three stories up or exaggerating it in any way. The Babylon Bee in 2022 has become non-fiction. I’m expecting Joe Biden to pull a rubbery mask off his face and reveal himself as the old man who ran the carnival. He would have gotten away with it, if not for those pesky kids. So, this week I’m just going to rant. On (spins wheel) vodka. “Vodka, it’s not just for breakfast anymore®.”
Our economic system before the Federal Reserve™ was a mess. Why, people had to have actual gold to back money. And if a bank got sideways? It failed. Talk about incentives. Gold wasn’t the biggest of the pre-Fed© sins, though. Regional banking centers outside of New York were taking a larger and larger percentage of the banking market. That, my friends was a sin. If there’s money to be made off of charging people interest, and a New Yorker isn’t involved, that’s treason.
The Federal Reserve™ Act essentially stopped the growth of banking outside of New York like Kanye West would be stopped from attending a Soros-family bar mitzvah. But that pesky gold remained. So, FDR confiscated it. All of it.
Why? So he could immediately make the dollar worth less. It was a con. But one he sold because (smoke and mirrors) I have no idea. Seriously. Maybe it was the equivalent of the COVID® panic back then. If the American public had stormed the White House when FDR stole their money, lynched him, and then placed statues of Eleanor Roosevelt’s face on each coast to ward off evil spirits I think we’d be a better country. But we didn’t.
I’ll skip ahead to 1971. There are plenty of things I could complain about in the decades between the 1930s and 1971, but I don’t think there’s enough vodka in the house (only a few gallons) and my liver has indicated that it can only take these utter financial rants about once a year unless I switch to wine or beer. But, I tell my liver, we already drank the wine and we’re saving the beer for . . . hmmm. Why are we saving the beer? Shut up, liver.
Regardless of my weak organs, in 1971 Nixon booted the dollar off of any convertibility to gold. That was because the French had figured out the game: they saw how many dollars that we were printing and wanted us to give them gold instead of dollars. Nixon saw right through that (thank you, vodka!) and just said, “We’ll print all the damn money we want to, or I’ll send G. Gordon Liddy to eat France.”
Of course, inflation followed. Jimmy Carter was an awful president, mainly because he wasn’t aware of what happened, why it was happening, what he could do about it, or . . . wait, this is sounding like Biden, but Carter was actually smart and relatively virtuous.
Then we sailed. Interest rates were raised, stopped inflation, and after two decades of high interest rates the currency stabilized to the point gold prices dropped and the biggest problems the country had were Hillary killing people and Bill Clinton having sex with anyone else besides Hillary. Ahhh, brings back memories of a sillier time.
Pressure though, was there to inflate the currency. That was built in. Social Security and Medicare Hang on. Need more vodka for this. Be right back.
Social Security and Medicare require a growing economy. They require more people working than those that are receiving benefits. But tax policy and birth control and Hillary Clinton’s Abortion Clinic® (Motto: No human is too old to abort©!) made it important to import people to pay for this stuff, especially if they’d vote (D) in elections. That made the economy less stable, rather than more. But the Federal Reserve© retained two controls: printing money, and interest rates. Heck, the Fed© should call it, “This One Weird Trick Allows Us To Print Money Without Printing Money.”
That one weird trick is low interest rates. When people borrow money, it actually is inflationary. I could go into detail, but each $100 you have in a bank can be loaned out. So, if you put $100 in a bank, you think it’s there. In reality, it has been loaned out, so you think you have your $100 at the same time someone else is spending it. There’s more to it than that, but I’m running low on vodka and, last time I checked, you have the whole Internet. I mean, none of it is as funny as this place, but, you know, I have to leave room for other folks.
But that brings us to the Great Recession. The Fed™ and Congress wanted everyone to own a home, so they created massive amounts of money through the magic of low interest rates. Poof. Then everyone wanted to buy six or a dozen houses because they never go down in value. Then it collapsed.
The problem with a debt deflation as the loans collapse is that the cash supply collapses even faster than the Fed© can print it. That’s the Great Recession. So, the Fed™ tried to smooth things out by “dropping money from a helicopter” – which is a direct quote from the Fed© chairman. It worked. Sort of. When you do things like that, it distorts the economy in a big way. You bail out banks, but cause other people to fail. But those people aren’t congressmen, so, who cares, right?
Again, it worked. Sort of. The problems with Social Security and Medicare remain, and are getting bigger. We’re pretending that those things aren’t happening, just like I’m pretending that having Kamala within a heartbeat of the presidency is something that Jefferson, Adams, or Washington would be cool with.
Then, COVID. Solution? Print money. Now, we’re back to inflation. The solution is simple: raise interest rates to the point where they’re larger than Barron Trump. But we can’t! Back in the 1970s when we played this game the first time, we had functional manufacturing and the undisputed strongest economy in the world. It still almost wrecked the place.
We’ve run out of places to hide. Admittedly, this nonsense has gone on far longer than I expected it could already. We are living in a time and place where we’ll see more changes in a year than we normally see in a decade. Heck, we might see weeks in the near future where we see more economic changes in a week than in a decade.
I’ll admit, I do miss boring at this point. But, I still have you, vodka."
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