“The beautiful Trifid Nebula, also known as Messier 20, is easy to find with a small telescope in the nebula rich constellation Sagittarius. About 5,000 light-years away, the colorful study in cosmic contrasts shares this well-composed, nearly 1 degree wide field with open star cluster Messier 21 (top right).
Trisected by dust lanes the Trifid itself is about 40 light-years across and a mere 300,000 years old. That makes it one of the youngest star forming regions in our sky, with newborn and embryonic stars embedded in its natal dust and gas clouds. Estimates of the distance to open star cluster M21 are similar to M20's, but though they share this gorgeous telescopic skyscape there is no apparent connection between the two. In fact, M21's stars are much older, about 8 million years old.”
Sounds and sweet airs, that give delight, and hurt not.
Sometimes a thousand twangling instruments
Will hum about mine ears, and sometimes voices,
That, if I then had wak'd after long sleep,
Will make me sleep again.”
"Caliban is talking to Stephano and Trinculo in Shakespeare's “Tempest”, telling them not to be "afeard" of the mysterious place they find themselves, an island seemingly beset with magic, strangeness, ineffable presences. And you and I, and, yes, all of us, find ourselves inexplicably thrown up on this island that is the world, and we too, if we are attentive, hear the strange music, the sounds and sweet airs, that seems to come from nowhere and everywhere
No, I'm not talking about the usual ubiquitous clamor, the roar of internal combustion, the blare of the television, the beeping of mobile phones. I'm not talking about the Limbaughs and the Becks, the televangelists, the blathering politicians, the twitterers and bloggers (including this one). I'm not even talking about the exquisite music of Mozart, the poetry of Wordsworth, the theories of Einstein.
I'm talking about the sounds we hear in utter silence, in moments of repose, in the heart of darkness, when we are a little bit afraid, disoriented, off kilter. A strange music that comes from beyond our knowing, a felt meaning. You've heard it. I've heard it. You'd have to be deaf not to have heard it.
Where we differ is how we describe it. Mostly, we give its source a name. Angels. Fairies. Gods or demons. Yahweh. Allah. Father, Son and Holy Spirit. Nixies, E.T.s, shades and shadows. Naiads, dryads, Ariel and Puck. A host of invisible creatures who are, in one way or another, images of ourselves. And, in naming, we are a little less afraid.
And some of us are just content to listen, to take delight. Having woken to the inexplicable mystery of the world- the sounds and sweet airs that give delight and hurt not- we let the music lull us back into a sweet slumber, a kind of dreamless dream, a reverie. Does reverie share a deep root with reverence? I don't know.”
“Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here’s a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one’s health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.
Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.
According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- “Weightless”- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants’ overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.
Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created “Weightless”, Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener’s heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.
When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer’s, or influenza.
In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you’ve got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.
Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, “‘Weightless’ was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous.” So don’t drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:
"Churches gotta have bell towers. Rats gotta have tails.
And empires gotta do empire things…until they can’t do them anymore."
~ Bill Bonner
Dublin, Ireland - You may wonder, dear reader, why we continue (did we hear you say “harp”?) on the inflation story. “Don’t you know,” you might ask, “inflation is going down?” Not so fast! Prices may go up. They may go down. But inflation won’t go away anytime soon. Yes, it was triggered by the feds’ stimmie checks in 2020. But there was a lot of inflation waiting to happen. Because, inflation is not a thing unto itself. Instead, it’s part of a bigger picture – that includes federal deficits, trade deficits, transfer payments, a declining middle class, an ‘extractive’ elite, rising real interest rates, and the cost of maintaining a huge, worldwide empire.
A real “cluster,” as the kids say. Today, we’ll look at one of the biggest pieces of it, the empire itself.
Shorter, Blinder: In this, as in so many other things, America is a victim of its own flim-flam. The peak of it (the flim-flam, not the empire) probably came when Madeleine Albright, the US Secretary of State, announced that the US was ‘indispensable’…and that ‘we stand taller…and see farther’ than other people.
Since then, we’ve gotten shorter…by almost every measure. Even life expectancy. The rest of the ‘western,’ fully developed nations in the G7 have an average lifespan of 83 years. In America, we live to 76…and life expectancies are falling, along with wages, productivity, GDP growth, trust in government, innovation, happiness and just about everything else.
As we pointed out in our 2006 book, “Empire of Debt,” the American economy became the world’s biggest at the end of the 19th century. By then, the country had plenty of experience taking land from others – the Indian tribes and the Spanish. Then, when it straddled the continent, sea to shining sea, it looked abroad. And by the early 20th century, it was master of islands in the Pacific (including Hawaii) and the Caribbean, as well the Philippines.
But rather than follow the tried-and-true empire model – conquer, steal, tax – the US imagined that it was doing the world a favor; it is a ‘good empire,’ handing out democracy and LBQT rights like free weed at a rock concert.
The net loss due to its imperial wars is said to be around $8 trillion so far this century. But the total cost of its empire is much higher – including foreign aid, veterans’ benefits, diplomatic missions, support for the World Bank and other international agencies, whose main purpose is to expand the influence of the US beyond its own borders. This year alone, the total cost is said to be around $1.5 trillion, or at least $20 trillion all-in since 1999. And since they have never had a lot of extra money lying around, the federales had to borrow and print it…which is now embedded, like a recurring nightmare, in America’s $33 trillion of government debt.
Yes, this is a new kind of ‘empire’…muddled in claptrap thinking and mired in debt. Yes, the US conquered. And yes, it killed – with as many as a million people dead this century alone. But it forgot to send a bill!
The White Man’s Burden: Inflation and empire go hand in hand. It is widely assumed – though never debated in Congress, or even whispered in the popular press – that the empire is a necessary or inevitable thing. We did not choose to be an empire – at least, not in a deliberate or conscious way. Instead, we believe that greatness was thrust upon us…like a crown upon the head of Claudius; we, Americans, had to take up the White Man’s Burden whether we liked it or not.
But the burden is fundamentally a hustle…a scam. Spend, borrow, print…bomb, sanction…put the coup in the coup d’etat. And give the money to favored elite groups. The ‘Green’ Lobby, for example. Fox News: "Biden energy secretary doubles down on electrifying US military's vehicle fleet by 2030: 'We can get there'. Last April, Biden said his administration is working to make 'every vehicle' in the U.S. military 'climate-friendly'. Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Wednesday that she supports efforts from the Biden administration to require the U.S. military to implement an all-electric vehicle fleet by 2030, telling lawmakers that she believes "we can get there."
Yes, we can get ‘there,’ but ‘there’ has nothing to do with protecting the country…or national defense. That could be done with as little as, maybe 25% of the existing empire budget. Maybe a good deal less. After all, the US has no enemies the empire didn’t create for itself.
In other words, why not renounce the empire, as presidential RFK,Jr. proposes? The US deficit could be eliminated…and the main driver of inflation removed. Switzerland has no troops stationed around the world. Sweden has no empire budget. Ireland spends only 0.3% of GDP on its military (compared to America’s Empire Budget of 6% of GDP…20 times as much). As far as we can tell, the people of Ireland and Switzerland are no less happy and no less prosperous than those of the USA.
So, why not give peace a chance? Russia renounced its disastrous Soviet Union. France withdrew from Vietnam and gave up Algeria. Britain turned India over to the Indians. And every one of these nations was better off. And the US? Why not become a regular, decent nation, minding our own business and balancing our own budget? Stay tuned..."
Joel’s Note: Economically, America's days as a world dominating trade empire are already entering what you might call the “sunset phase.” At the end of WWII, the United States accounted for roughly 50% of global GDP and held some 80% of the world’s hard currency reserves. By 1960, the country’s share of global GDP had dipped to 40%. And by 1980, it had fallen to 25%. Today, it’s down to 15%… and is projected to fall for the rest of the decade.
China, meanwhile, has tracked the opposite course. Back in 1980, the Middle Kingdom’s share of global GDP stood at a paltry 2.6%. By 2000, the year before China entered the World Trade Organization, it had tripled… but was still a fairly modest 7.3%. Ten years later, it had roughly doubled again, to 13.6%. In 2023, China’s share of global GDP stands at 18.9%. It is projected to hit 20% by the end of the decade.
China is also the top trading partner to no fewer than 120 countries around the world. As the Wilson Center notes: "China is the largest trading partner to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Given their proximity, those countries are hardly a surprise. But it is also the top trader with Russia—and Ukraine. In Africa, China is the top partner for countries like South Africa and Kenya. In South America, for places like Brazil; in the Middle East, places like Saudi Arabia. And China is the largest external trading partner of the European Union."
How, then, does the United States, with a shrinking share of the world’s trade, expect to maintain its empire around the world? Take a look at this graph, from April of this year, compiled by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation:
According to the Peter G. Peterson Institute, defense spending in the US accounts for around 12% of all federal spending and nearly half of discretionary spending. The US maintains something like 750 foreign military bases (nobody knows the exact number) in over 80 countries around the world. (Britain, France and Russia, by contrast, have about 30 foreign bases… combined.)
Hmm… shrinking economic dominance and an enormous military, just sitting around waiting for something to do...One recalls the famous line, attributed to French philosopher, Frédéric Bastiat: “When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.”
"In this video, Gerald Celente discusses the state of the country and the endless war that America has been engaged in for the last 75 years. He criticizes the military-industrial complex and politicians who continue to escalate conflicts while neglecting infrastructure like roads and train systems. Celente also takes aim at the mainstream media, which he views as propagandists who sell war to the public. Celente also comments on the recent announcement of Joe Biden's run for president, arguing that people are tired of both him and Trump. Finally, he addresses the commercial real estate bust and floating loans, warning of the negative effects that rising interest rates could have on the economy."
"Shopping At Meijer, Massive Recall On Gold Medal Flour!"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing that there has been a massive recall on Gold Medal Flour! We are also here to check out some of the major price increases that have been hitting a lot of grocery stores across the United States, and around the world!"
"Costco is facing a lot of pressure right now. Shoppers are reporting extreme price increases, while food and product shortages are forcing the company to discontinue a long list of items and reintroduce purchasing limits at its warehouses. Several reports reveal that the wholesaler’s supply chain is eroding, and that is leading the company to close some locations across the country and consider shutting down all of its famous food courts. But the retailer’s problems don’t end quite there. Bloomberg just reported that Costco registered its worse sales levels since the onset of the pandemic, and markets reacted by sending its stock right to the ground. Given all the turmoil the warehouse chain is facing, analysts are starting to question whether Costco is going to get through the crisis in retail intact or suffer some distressing consequences.
Something strange seems to be happening at Costco warehouses right now. The chain famously known for its cost-saving deals and fair prices is now dealing with increasing backlash for its eye-popping price increases. Consumers are reporting price hikes of almost 100% on basic items, while others note that their weekly purchases at Costco have gone up by $100 in a short few months. The revelations are quite shocking, with some people arguing that the company may be price gouging its customers.
“Chicken pot pies went from $16 to $30. Not buying those anymore,” commented one shopper. “I SWEAR the Bone Sipping Broth was 10.99 just 2 years ago. Now it’s 19.99,” marking an almost 100% surge, according to the shopper. “Our $400 trips have turned into $500 trips seemingly overnight,” shared another person on Reddit.
An April post shows a picture of smaller toilet paper packages and higher costs. “Costco shrunk their toilet paper and increased the price,” the caption read. According to CNN, toilet paper shortages are back again at the wholesaler’s warehouses, and scarce supplies led the company to reintroduce purchasing limits for the item in many areas of the country. Some regions may also see limits on some popular products such as paper towels, detergents, and other cleaning supplies.
The reason is that not only demand is higher, but the chain is also having a hard time with its supply chain. Problems with suppliers and shortages of key ingredients and materials are leaving shelves barer. While some stockouts may be fixed soon, a long list of products may never make their way back to Costco warehouses. Due to the challenges the wholesale retailer is facing to source some foods and products, it decided to discontinue a series of items starting this month.
The drastic changes in its product range are coming as a surprise for many consumers. They might also be surprised to find out that over a dozen warehouse closings have been announced for 2023, with Florida alone losing 8 stores this year. The news came just after one current Costco employee shared online that they were informed by management in January that the company is considering phasing out all food courts at US locations due to dwindling profits.
In March, Costco missed first-quarter earnings expectations, according to Bloomberg, registering the slowest sales since May 2020 as shoppers turned frugal on discretionary spending amid persistently high inflation. That has triggered an unpleasant response in the stock markets, with shares sinking 5% in just two days. The wholesaler’s troubles are sending shockwaves through the industry, with many analysts predicting that more closings and further financial losses are on the way for Costco."
“Namibia has some of the darkest nights visible from any continent. It is therefore home to some of the more spectacular skyscapes, a few of which have been captured in the below time-lapse video. We recommend watching this video at FULL SCREEN (1080p), with audio on. The night sky of Namibia is one of the best in the world, about the same quality of the deserts of Chile and Australia.
Full screen recommended.
Visible at the movie start are unusual quiver trees perched before a deep starfield highlighted by the central band of our Milky Way Galaxy. This bright band of stars and gas appears to pivot around the celestial south pole as our Earth rotates. The remains of camel thorn trees are then seen against a sky that includes a fuzzy patch on the far right that is the Large Magellanic Cloud, a small satellite galaxy to the Milky Way. A bright sunlight-reflecting satellite passes quickly overhead. Quiver trees appear again, now showing their unusual trunks, while the Small Magellanic Cloud becomes clearly visible in the background. Artificial lights illuminate a mist that surround camel thorn trees in Deadvlei. In the final sequence, natural Namibian stone arches are captured against the advancing shadows of the setting moon. This video incorporates over 16,000 images shot over two years, and won top honors among the 2012 Travel Photographer of the Year awards.”
“I once received a book in the mail, as I sometimes do, for potential review on this blog, James Stein's “Cosmic Numbers: The Numbers That Define Our Universe”. I often write here about books I read, but I don't review. I did glance at Stein's book, however. It has an audience, but it's not for me; been there, done that. The subtitle is provocative, however. The idea that a dozen or so numbers "define the universe." That's a mind-blowing concept.
The gravitational constant. The speed of light. Absolute zero. Planck's constant. The Hubble constant. And so on. Familiar to every introductory physics student. Built into the very structure of the Earth. And every other earth in the universe.
Look again at the Hubble Ultra Deep Field photograph above. Those myriad of galaxies. Those yawning light-years. That infinitude of worlds. And, as far as we know, the fundamental constants are the same everywhere,
The human mind has thrown a net across the cosmos. And as we have brought the galaxies into our ken, so have we come to realize that we too are part and parcel of the fabric of cosmic space and time. Exceptional clarity. Impenetrable mystery.
So what do we make of the news so breathlessly reported in the media of neutrinos moving faster than the speed of light? This is surely a bit of heroic physics, pitting what we believe to be true against the refining fire of experience, but I wouldn't make too much of it yet. Tom suggested that perhaps the researchers unwittingly measured the distance from CERN in Switzerland to Gran Sasso in Italy with greater accuracy. That's the kind of whimsy the result calls for now. The real story - for the time being - is as an illustration of the way the engine of scientific knowing grinds inexorably toward consensus.”
“We all got problems. But there’s a great book out called “Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart.” Did you see that? That book says the statute of limitations has expired on all childhood traumas. Get your stuff together and get on with your life, man. Stop whinin’ about what’s wrong, because everybody’s had a rough time, in one way or another.”
Excerpt: "Have you ever looked at Joe Biden and wondered if this guy is going to get us all killed? If so, you are definitely not alone. Biden is an ill-tempered lunatic that is not all there mentally, and his foreign policy team includes well-known warmongers such as Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken and Victoria Nuland. Over the past two years they have been provoking our enemies every chance they get, and that has pushed us to the brink of war with several of them. They keep telling us that they know exactly what they are doing, but if they get this wrong we are not going to get a “do over”. Once the missiles start flying, there will be no going back. The following are 4 ways that Joe Biden and his minions could get America into a nuclear war…"
"In America, all the restraint, inhibition, and modesty of the Old Republic has been blown away by the prevailing winds of the new empire. In its place has emerged a vainglorious system of conceit, deceit, debt and delusion."
~ "Empire of Debt", by Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin
Dublin, Ireland - In our opinion, we have clearly reached a turning point. Trouble is, the authorities may not turn. They need to turn away from money-printing, deficits, and expensive overseas meddling. Typically, the ruling class can’t do it. These things increase their wealth and power; they don’t want to give them up. Instead, they use tricks, disguises, and brute force to keep the racket going…all the way to the disastrous end. Will this time be different? We’ll see…
A Tear in the Fabric: In the great boom 2009-2022, anything seemed possible. Money grew on trees. And trees all got the Fed’s Miracle-Gro. It could be used to pay for pointless wars… ‘investments’ that didn’t pay off…deficits…zombies – you name it. No more. Inflation changes everything. It raises prices. And higher prices make consumers unhappy… and make voters restless. The ‘social fabric’ wrinkles…then rips.
Here’s the latest from Bloomberg: "More Young Adults Are Living Paycheck to Paycheck in the US." "The share of young people who struggle to cover everyday bills jumped from a year ago, while that of seniors living paycheck to paycheck leveled off, according to a report. Almost two-thirds of adult Gen Zs — people who are 26 and younger — were living paycheck to paycheck in March, an 8-percentage-point increase from a year earlier."
We have previously seen how inflation damages the middle class. The poor have their inflation-adjusted handouts. The rich have their inflation-boosted financial assets. The middle class has neither. All it has is its time — which it sells by the hour. Inflation depreciates time. Long term investments aren’t made. Long-term bonds get marked down. And real wages per hour have been falling for the last two years.
Others’ Expense: Meanwhile, inflation increases house prices. But a home is not a financial asset. Families can’t ‘cash out;’ they have to live somewhere. All they can do is borrow against the ‘equity.’ And then they are trapped; they will need low interest rates to refinance – or lose their homes.
In countries with severe inflation, the middle class gets squeezed so hard it vanishes. Venezuela…Argentina…Zimbabwe – as inflation rates go up, the middle class sinks into poverty. That’s why democracy is incompatible with inflation. The many poor are dependent on government handouts; they are easily bamboozled and bribed. And the elite get to be good at it. They become ‘extractive,’ that is, they use their skills and power to make themselves rich at others’ expense.
An honest democracy needs a free, informed middle class. It needs a yeoman class – people who own their own farms and houses…who pay the taxes…who are ready to protect the homeland…and vote independently. So, look what’s happening. Statistica reports: "America's Middle Class Is Shrinking."
While middle class Americans remain the biggest income group by number of people, the same can't be said of the aggregate income earned by them. From 1970 to 2021, the share of U.S. aggregate income earned by the middle class shrunk massively, from formerly 62 percent to just 42 percent. During the same time, aggregate earnings by high income Americans increased from 29 percent to 50 percent…"
The disappearance of the middle class corresponds with another of the great conceits we can no longer afford: an empire. We wrote a book about it almost 2 decades ago: “Empire of Debt,” we called it. The book, written with Addison Wiggin, was a best-seller. We were right about a number of things. So, the publisher, John Wiley & Sons, has asked for an update. Our book was written in 2005. Then, US debt was $13 trillion, 60% of GDP. Today, it’s $32 trillion, 120% of GDP.
Stumblin’ and Bumblin’: One of the features of the Roman Empire was that it destroyed the middle class – the people whose blood, sweat, and taxes had built the empire. It was these people who picked up their fathers’ swords and defended Rome when it seemed ready to fall to Hannibal, for example. It was they who filled the ranks after the disastrous battle of Cannae, 216 BC, in which Rome lost 50,000 to 70,000 soldiers…and again, after three entire legions were massacred in the Teutoburg forest in 9AD.
And how did the empire reward them? It brought in thousands of slaves. And soon, the small freeholders couldn’t compete with huge latifundia, farmed by slaves. And then, the government inflated their money and raised taxes. They sold their daughters to keep up. And then, they sold themselves into slavery But at least the empire was profitable!
The gist of our book is that though the US has been in the empire racket for more than a 100 years, it has never gotten the hang of it. It extends its power…it offers protection to nations who obey, war and sanctions to those who don’t. The trouble is, it loses the wars…and loses money on the whole enterprise.
The idea of an empire is that you conquer…steal…and then demand tribute. It’s supposed to be at least self-financing…and usually profitable. But the US stumbles and bumbles. It has the expense of conquering…then the expense of governing…and the extra cost of “building a democracy.” But where’s the pay-off? Where are the slaves? The booty? The tribute? What is going on? And what does it mean for America’s middle class? Tune in tomorrow…"
Joel’s Note: "Remember wily ol’ Willie Sutton, who used to rob banks dressed as a mailman? When asked by the FBI why he chose to rob banks he replied, simply: ”Because that’s where the money is.” It’s a simple enough insight… and one not lost on rapacious governments around the world, including that of the current, reigning Empire of Debt. For most prosperous economies, the bulk of the wealth rests in a vibrant, robust middle class. If you’re in the business of robbing, that’s where you’d be looking. (The rich have too many connections… the poor too few possessions.)
Unsurprising, then, that the middle class has shrunk considerably over the past half century, as governments local, state and federal have feasted on their wealth and toil. According to data collected by Pew Research Center, the percentage of Americans occupying the middle class fell from 61% in 1971 to 50% in 2021. The percentage of Americans in both the lower and upper income brackets both increased over the same period.
Stubbornly “non-transitory” inflation doesn’t help the average man on the street, either. Here’s Fortune Magazine: "Inflation is wreaking havoc on the American middle class and 8 out of 10 say they are spending their savings just to get by. One group of Americans has particularly suffered: middle-income families, who have had to stop saving as much or tap into their past savings to get by, financial services company Primerica found in a survey. An overwhelming 82% of middle-income households have cut down on the amount of money they’re savings or reached into existing savings to make up for the shortfall in their incomes in the last three months of 2022 due to the higher cost of living.
A recent Gallup poll suggested that a majority of middle-income Americans now expect the next generation’s standard of living to be lower than their own. CNBC: "Now, 59% of middle-income Americans - or those making between $40,000 and $100,000, according to Gallup - said it is very or somewhat unlikely that today’s young adults will have a better life than their parents compared to only 48% of those with annual household incomes under $40,000 who feel that way."
In other words, relying on the government to safeguard your savings is a bit like asking ol’ Willie Sutton to keep an eye on the bank. They’ll happily do the job… just don’t expect anything in the vault when you get back!"
"With the latest bank failures, things are only escalating to the downside. It is anticipated that there are 200 banks that have $2 trillion in losses that they’re hiding."
"In today's vlog we are at Aldi, and we are continuing to see price increases on groceries! With it getting harder and harder to put food on the table, we are seeking out cheaper options, and trying to get more creative with meals. Later in this video we also do a taste test on some new Aldi products!"
“Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good.” - Thomas Sowell
"Historians of the future, poaching ‘possum snouts in sorrel sauce over their campfires, will trace the fall of Western Civ in the 2020s to the dissolving hallucination that was called the financial economy. It was a phantom parasitical organism that thrived on the back of a real economy based on making-and-doing things derived from the natural world, turbo-charged by fossil fuels.
The orgy of making-and-doing went on for two-hundred-plus years. Even with cyclical “recessions,” the making-and-doing always increased in the aggregate, while its products got ever more plentiful, elaborate, and complex. The phantom financial parasite clinging to its back got used to this “growth” and it, too, developed ever more ingenious ways to suck the life out of its host organism, until it became a greater entity than the host itself, breaking its back.
The whole of this chapter in the long-running human project had strange effects on human minds that had not changed much since the late days of hunting and gathering. After the first hundred years of fossil fuel plentitude, humans had a hard time telling the difference between the host and the parasite. Both of them seemed to thrive equally. The real economy produced food and useful things and the financial economy produced money, which could buy food and useful things.
People made things incessantly, especially better and better tools and engines. That allowed people to grow more food and make more useful things that provided comfort and convenience. The financial economy made more and more money. It also produced myriad new ways for money to represent itself. At first, these things such as stocks and bonds (ownerships and loans-at-interest) were firmly attached to activities in the real economy - that is, they were sucked directly out of the host’s makings-and-doings.
Later on, the things which represented money became more numerous and more detached from real makings-and-doings, more abstract, more based on promises, hopes, and wishes than on things derived from nature. That is to say, these newer representations of money tended ever more to a realm of the unreal. After a while, it became very hard to tell the difference between money-things that were real and unreal. The financial economy furnished plenty of mystification to blend the two. This confusion prompted plenty of fraud, a brisk commerce in unreality that produced winners and losers.
Every story has a beginning, a middle, and an end, of course. As the fossil fuel supply drew closer to its end and further from the long, happy middle time of plenty, the business model for making-and-doing started to shudder and crack. It didn’t fall apart all at once, but it put many makers-and-doers out of business. They stopped making-and-doing. By then, the financial economy was a colossal phantom parasite that dwarfed its host. It was burdened with so much unreality, so many workings dissociated from nature, that it could no longer pretend to be anything but a phantom.
To keep the host alive, it upchucked some of what it had sucked out of the host, adulterated with money based on unreal promises, hopes, and dreams. This turned more and more into a spewage of money so debased by broken promises, hopes, and dreams that making-and-doing just about stopped altogether. That is when the phantom parasite of finance began to dissolve and humans began to regard it as an hallucination that had gone away, dissolved into mist. What remained were a lot humans embedded in nature.
And that is the place where the humans of Western Civ find themselves in the 2020s. Western Civ was the first region of the world that tapped into the fossil fuel orgy and it is now the first region exiting this phase of history. Even when the financial hallucination melts into air there will be a lot of real things around that were made before the great age of making-and-doing stopped.
Humans are ingenious animals, enterprising and resilient, though there will surely be fewer of us around. These fewer humans will likely be healthier, working more directly in nature and no longer compromised by the pernicious by-products of all the bygone making-and-doing. We will figure out how to use the left-over useful things to get food out of nature and keep making other useful things. The new making-and-doing will happen at nothing like the former pitch or scale. It may represent a time-out from the lost experience of the old, ever more elaborate and complex makings-and-doings. After a while, humans may discover a new way to get more out of nature. Or maybe not.
In the meantime, lodged as we are in the present, in the moment of this epochal transition, anxiety besets many millions of minds. Not a few minds have grown disordered watching all this go on around them, dreading the journey from one disposition of things to the next. Some have made themselves obnoxious. Let them do what they will until they tire themselves out. Keep your own well-ordered minds on the tasks ahead, your own makings and doings within the bounds of what is real. Take some time out to make some music. There are still plenty of good instruments around, and you can always sing. Put a meal together with your friends and loved ones and sing out. It’s all right, Ma, Bob sang out long ago, 'It’s life and life only.'*"
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI)is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding,safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
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