"Free Speech in Russia and America"

"Free Speech in Russia and America"

by Brian Maher

"A Russian anti-war protester - bearing a message in two languages - recently streaked across a Moscow newsroom:This woman in question had evidently labored for the very same “news” organization. The United States media instantly shrieked with glee…What a heroic soul, they gushed. She has defied Mr. Putin before the world’s watching eyes. Solzhenitsyn himself had nothing on her. In a pre-recorded video this First Amendment heroine explained herself: "Russia is the aggressor country and one person, Vladimir Putin, solely bears responsibility for that aggression… I am ashamed that I allowed lies to be broadcast from TV screens. Ashamed that I allowed others to zombify Russian people."

American media naturally feared her transgression would ticket her for the gulag… if not the wall… once Vladimir’s goons collared her.

Fined $280 for an “Administrative Offense": Yet what happened to this anti-Putin, Russian subversive? Precisely this: She was fined 30,000 roubles (roughly $280) for an "administrative offense." She was released one day later to face future trial. We suspect our media were somewhat let down. We believe they inwardly yearned for a much rougher handling of her. They could then denounce the Russian brute for his strangulation of speech and strong-arming of dissent. Alas, the lady was cited for an administrative offense.

Let the record reflect: We concede at once that Mr. Putin is a propagandist and a geyser of lies. That is, he is a successful, if somewhat ungentlemanly, politician. We cite this example not to absolve Mr. Putin of his grave and multiplying atrocities - but to stand the American media before a mirror.

How Would the U.S. Media React? Imagine the scene… An American news anchor sits at a desk before a film camera. There she reads, stoically and dutifully, the latest communique issuing from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the Food and Drug Administration. Thus we are informed that novel mRNA vaccines are the only shield against the dreaded COVID-19. They are at once “safe” and “effective.” We are further informed that federal vaccine mandates are appropriate - and perhaps even lawful.

At that point an unauthorized person invades the television screen and disrupts the proceedings. She is armed with a placard. It bears this inscription: “My Body, My Choice. End the Tyrannical Mandates!”

This scalawag, an employee of this “news” network, pre-recorded a statement of explanation: "One person, Anthony Fauci, solely bears responsibility for thousands of deaths by suppressing the early use of effective treatments like ivermectin in order to push these experimental genetic therapies upon the American people. I am ashamed that I allowed lies to be broadcast from TV screens. Ashamed that I allowed others to zombify American people."

Questions: Now answer these questions, please: Would her brethren and sistren in the media empty hosannas upon her head? Would they hold this Joan of Arc out as a First Amendment crusader and sob about her bravery, her courage to confront Big Pharma and its propagandists? Or would they denounce her as a sort of bedlamite… as a believer of conspiracy theories… for propagating “misinformation” and “disinformation”… perhaps even for disseminating “Russian lies”?

We believe we have the answers. That is merely because we have observed their conduct for nearly two years. We know them snout to stem. Might certain members of the guardian media even yell for her jailing? We would not be one whit surprised if they did.

That’s Ridiculous! “You can’t compare the two situations,” you counter, continuing that: “Putin is a brutal dictator who has unjustifiably invaded his neighbor, killing many thousands of innocent people. That woman is a hero for doing what she did. You can’t compare Dr. Fauci to Putin. He’s trying to save lives, not take them.”

You are not yet through: “That protester you cite in your theoretical example is a nutjob. She’s spouting unsubstantiated claims, yes, fake news, that could actually kill people if they listened to her. She’s just an anti-vaxxer who shouldn’t have a public forum at all.”

Just so. But why are you so thoroughly convinced of her waywardness… and so thoroughly convinced of your correctness?

How Do You Know Which Experts to Trust? Are you not aware that multiple studies indicate these vaccines are poisons for many? They exist. Are you also not aware that multiple studies indicate such therapeutics as ivermectin are formidable and effective treatments? These studies likewise exist. You say you are not aware of them because they lack credibility. If they glowed with credibility, the media would have reported it.

Yet how do the media determine the credible from the incredible? Where are their doctorate degrees in the medical sciences? We can cite vastly conflicting information by equally credentialed medical men. The news people appeal instead to authority - to the authority of Dr. Fauci and his understrappers within the public health bureaucracies. After all, they are official agents of the United States government. They are not “quacks.”

Journalism Is About Covering Important Stories: Yet - yet - the same Dr. Fauci and his understrappers within the public health bureaucracies have repeatedly dispensed false “information.” A rascally and somewhat cheeky fellow might even label it “misinformation.” Perhaps “disinformation.”

In fact, the authorized experts have often been proven 100% wrong, falsified and discredited. And yet the American media kneel before them even now. All dissenting information is throttled, muffled and gagged. As one wag once observed: Journalism is about covering important stories - with a pillow. We believe there is hard truth in it. We also hazard that journalists are covering important stories on Ukraine with a suffocating pillow.

Here we speculate, though our spies report scandalous rumors. And let the record reflect: We do not stand Dr. Fauci beside Mr. Putin for comparison. The latter is vastly more practiced in the murderous arts and sciences. The former is merely a scoundrel.

The Limits of Free Speech: Our sights today are instead trained upon the United States media. We aspire merely to force arrogant people to their assumptions… and to turn their critical eyes upon themselves. Again, to stand them before a mirror. Our media like to croon about “free speech” and “the freedom of expression.” Yet their allegiance to these lovely ideals is conditional. They yell about the lack of free speech in Russia as they moan about excessive free speech in the United States of America.

We are with the incomparable Mencken: “I have believed all my life in free thought and free speech - up to and including the utmost limits of the endurable.”

The current run of American journalists turn Baltimore’s Sage upside down: “I have believed since the pandemic in free thought and free speech - up to and including the least limits of the permissible.”

- dailyreckoning.com

"The Truth About The 2.5 QUADRILLION Derivatives Bubble"

Full screen recommended.

The Atlantis Report, 

"The Truth About The 2.5 QUADRILLION Derivatives Bubble"

Full text here:

- https://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/

○

"Financial institutions such as JP Morgan love to buy derivatives because they are opaque, create fictional income that leads to real bonuses, and when, not if, they suffer losses so large that they would cause the bank to fail, they will be bailed out."

- William K Black

"A synthetic instrument has no real assets. It is simply a bet on the performance of the assets it references. That means the number of synthetic instruments is limitless, and so is the risk they present to the economy. Synthetic structures referencing high-risk mortgages garnered hefty fees for Goldman Sachs and other investment banks. They assumed an ever-larger share of the financial markets, and contributed greatly to the severity of the crisis by magnifying the amount of risk in the system.

Increasingly, synthetics became bets made by people who had no interest in the referenced assets. Synthetics became the chips in a giant casino, one that created no economic growth even when it thrived, and then helped throttle the economy when the casino collapsed."

- Carl Levin, US Senator

- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "Crude Surges Higher... The Dollar Nosedives... And Stocks Gain"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/17/22:

"Crude Surges Higher... The Dollar Nosedives... And Stocks Gain"

- https://traderschoice.net/

○

"It was risk on again today, as stocks shook off their early losses and rally back into the green and went out near the highs. The SP and NDX are approaching the level of their latest failed rallies. This could provide a good test of bullies new resolve to buy. Gold and silver were higher. The Dollar and the VIX both fell on the risk appetite for equities. Quad witching option expiration tomorrow.

Every day we read and hear fresh stories of how the Russian military is experiencing disaster after disaster in the Ukraine. Their generals are dropping like flies, soldiers are abandoning their equipment and surrendering in tears. Every day it seems as though Russia is on the verge of admitting defeat and surrendering. And the Ukraine goes from victory to victory, triumph to triumph.

Just like the economy. One can only wonder.

Have a pleasant evening."

- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Memory of the Sky"

Full screen recommended.

2002, "Memory of the Sky"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"These are galaxies of the Hercules Cluster, an archipelago of island universes a mere 500 million light-years away. Also known as Abell 2151, this cluster is loaded with gas and dust rich, star-forming spiral galaxies but has relatively few elliptical galaxies, which lack gas and dust and the associated newborn stars. The colors in this remarkably deep composite image clearly show the star forming galaxies with a blue tint and galaxies with older stellar populations with a yellowish cast.

The sharp picture spans about 3/4 degree across the cluster center, corresponding to over 6 million light-years at the cluster's estimated distance. Diffraction spikes around brighter foreground stars in our own Milky Way galaxy are produced by the imaging telescope's mirror support vanes. In the cosmic vista many galaxies seem to be colliding or merging while others seem distorted - clear evidence that cluster galaxies commonly interact. In fact, the Hercules Cluster itself may be seen as the result of ongoing mergers of smaller galaxy clusters and is thought to be similar to young galaxy clusters in the much more distant, early Universe."

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap140625.html

"Most People Are Good..."

"Most people are good and occasionally do something they know is bad. Some people are bad and struggle every day to keep it under control. Others are corrupt to the core and don't give a damn, as long as they don't get caught. But evil is a completely different creature. Evil is bad that believes it's good." 

- Karen Marie Moning

The Poet: Maya Angelou, "A Brave And Startling Truth"

"A Brave And Startling Truth"

by Maya Angelou

"We, this people, on a small and lonely planet

Traveling through casual space,

Past aloof stars, across the way of indifferent suns,

To a destination where all signs tell us

It is possible and imperative that we learn

A brave and startling truth.

And when we come to it,

To the day of peacemaking,

When we release our fingers

From fists of hostility

And allow the pure air to cool our palms.

When we come to it,

When the curtain falls on the minstrel show of hate,

And faces sooted with scorn are scrubbed clean.

When battlefields and coliseum

No longer rake our unique and particular sons and daughters

Up with the bruised and bloody grass,

To lie in identical plots in foreign soil.

When the rapacious storming of the churches,

The screaming racket in the temples have ceased.

When the pennants are waving gaily,

When the banners of the world tremble

Stoutly in the good, clean breeze.

When we come to it,

When we let the rifles fall from our shoulders,

And children dress their dolls in flags of truce.

When land mines of death have been removed,

And the aged can walk into evenings of peace.

When religious ritual is not perfumed

By the incense of burning flesh,

And childhood dreams are not kicked awake

By nightmares of abuse.

When we come to it,

Then we will confess that not the Pyramids

With their stones set in mysterious perfection

Nor the Gardens of Babylon

Hanging as eternal beauty

In our collective memory,

Not the Grand Canyon

Kindled into delicious color

By Western sunsets.

Nor the Danube, flowing its blue soul into Europe

Not the sacred peak of Mount Fuji

Stretching to the Rising Sun.

Neither Father Amazon nor Mother Mississippi who, without favor,

Nurture all creatures in the depths and on the shores

These are not the only wonders of the world.

When we come to it,

We, this people, on this minuscule and kithless globe,

Who reach daily for the bomb, the blade and the dagger

Yet who petition in the dark for tokens of peace.

We, this people on this mote of matter,

In whose mouths abide cankerous words

Which challenge our very existence,

Yet out of those same mouths

Come songs of such exquisite sweetness

That the heart falters in its labor,

And the body is quieted into awe.

We, this people, on this small and drifting planet,

Whose hands can strike with such abandon

That in a twinkling, life is sapped from the living.

Yet those same hands can touch with such healing, irresistible tenderness

That the haughty neck is happy to bow,

And the proud back is glad to bend.

Out of such chaos, of such contradiction

We learn that we are neither devils nor divines.

When we come to it,

We, this people, on this wayward, floating body,

Created on this earth, of this earth,

Have the power to fashion for this earth

A climate where every man and every woman

Can live freely without sanctimonious piety,

Without crippling fear.

When we come to it,

We must confess that we are the possible,

We are the miraculous, the true wonder of this world.

That is when, and only when,

We come to it."

○

"The Human Condition"

"The Human Condition"

by Meanings of Life

 "We are all of us born, live and die in the shadow of a

giant question mark that refers to three questions:

Where do we come from? Why? And where, oh where, are we going?"

- Tennessee Williams

"Man remains largely unknown of himself. What are we, in our innermost recesses, behind our names and our conventional opinions? What are we behind the things we do in our lives, behind what we see in others and what others see in us, or even behind things science says we are? Is man the crazy being about whom Carl Gustav Jung spoke ironically, when he demanded a man to treat? Is man the Dr. Jerkyll that contains in himself a criminal Mister Hyde, and more than a personality, and contradictory feelings?

Are we the result of our dreams, as Prospero, in the Shakespeare's "The Tempest" asked? Are we able to raise our nature and become the dignified beings evoked by Pico de la Mirandola (It's the seeds a man cultivates that "will mature and bear fruit in him. If vegetative, he will become a plant; if sensual, he will become brutish; if rational, he will reveal himself a heavenly being; if intellectual, he will be an angel and the son of God").

Almost two centuries ago, Spencer characterized the contradictory features of natives from the African east coast: "He has at the same time good character and hard heart; he is a fighter, conscientious, good in a precise moment, and cruel, pitiless and violent in the other; superstitious and rudely irreligious; brave and pusillanimous, servile and dominator, stubborn and at the same time fickle, relied to honor views, but without signs of honesty, niggard and economical, but careless and improvident".

It's probably a good definition of a certain primitive man, to whom we are undoubtedly connected. But we are also cultural and ethic beings. We are able to change our values and behaviors. As William James says, human beings can change their lives through their mental attitudes. We can grow ethically. We can dominate part of our own instincts. And that's why we can be different from the indigenous African described by Spencer. More: our thought dignifies us ("All the dignity of man consists in thought", says Blaise Pascal). We are, in many senses, the conscience of the Universe, and its utmost elaborated product. As Edgar Morin says, "in the core of our singularity, we carry not only all the humanity, all the life, but also all the cosmos, including its mystery, present in the heart of our beings".

We are creators, creator beings, and, in a sense, we can create, or recreate ourselves. All goes through our mind. It is our mind that constructs our truths and errors, and also the most sublime things in the Universe. And yet evil and stupidity exist in us. Sometimes we fall, we are stroked, and life reveals its cruelty, and we may think as Mark Twain, and say that it was a pity that Noah had arrived late to the ark. In our innermost recesses, there is also the cruelty and the inhumanity of life. Charles Darwin showed that we are descendants of inferior life forms: we have been long ago a "bush and a bird, and a fish silently swimming in the waters", to use the poetic terms used by Empedocles in its "Purifications."

From a genetic and evolutionist point of view, we contain in us the survival reflexes and the aggressiveness of the life forms that preceded us: "All that threatened the cave man - dangers, darkness, famine, thirst, ghosts, demons all has passed to the interior of our souls, all troubles us, grieves us, threatens us from inside." (Morin). Besides, we are also beings that can differ significantly from each other. We are equal, but also different. "The awake involve a common world, but dreams deviate each one to its own world," Heraclites rather enigmatically declares. He thought we can't help sleeping and living in illusory worlds, even when awake.

For all these reasons, Blaise Pascal's celebrated definition of the human being, despite the hard language, not exactly agreeable to our ears, is undoubtedly one of the most powerful that can be applied to the rather unknown being that we can't help being to ourselves: "What a chimera then is man! What a novelty, what a monster, what a chaos, what a contradiction, what a prodigy! Judge of all things, imbecile worm of the earth; depositary of truth, a sink of uncertainty and error; the pride and refuse of the universe! Who will unravel this tangle?"

- http://www.meaningsoflife.com/

This website no longer exists, sadly..

○

Full screen recommended.

Billy Joel, "You're Only Human (Second Wind)"

"Words..."

"Words ought to be a little wild, for they

are the assaults of thoughts on the unthinking."

- John Maynard Keynes

The Daily "Near You?"

Acapulco De Juarez, Guerrero, Mexico.

Thanks for stopping by!

"You May Want To Figure Out Where You Want To Spend Your Days When World War 3 Fully Erupts"

"You May Want To Figure Out Where You Want 

To Spend Your Days When World War 3 Fully Erupts"

by Michael Snyder

"The growing desire for war that we are witnessing in Washington D.C. right now should greatly alarm all of us. In this environment, voices of reason such as Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard are being accused of “treason” just because they are calling for peace. Well, you can add me to that list because I am calling for peace too. I don’t want nuclear war. I don’t want billions of people to die. You would think that we should all be able to agree on those things, but unfortunately the warmongers in Washington seem absolutely determined to keep escalating matters. That is a very dangerous game, and it is going to be way too easy for someone to make a huge mistake. Before that day arrives, you may want to figure out where you want to spend your days when global war fully erupts.

At some point, the shooting in Ukraine will end. Either Russia will achieve total victory, or more likely there will be some sort of a ceasefire agreement. But when the shooting in Ukraine stops, don’t be fooled into thinking that everything is okay. The truth is that a much bigger conflict between the United States and Russia has now begun, and both sides are beginning to realize that this is ultimately a struggle for all the marbles.

World War 3 is here, and now we must hope that we can keep both parties from “going nuclear” for as long as possible.

Of course there are some that would like to see the U.S. and Russia shooting at each other very soon. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky begged Congress to establish a “humanitarian no-fly zone” over Ukraine… "The t-shirt-attired Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed a joint session of the U.S. Congress by video on Wednesday and asked for the United States to send warplanes into the sky over Ukraine to create a “humanitarian no-fly zone” or, failing that, to provide Ukraine itself with warplanes." 

“Russia has turned the Ukrainian sky into a source of death for thousands of people,” Zelensky told Congress. Zelensky knows very well that the establishment of a “humanitarian no-fly zone” would require U.S. forces to shoot down Russian jets. And he also understands that this would spark a shooting war between the United States and Russia. But you can’t blame Zelensky for trying. He is trying to save his own skin, and the best way to do that is to drag the United States into the war.

Needless to say, the establishment media in the western world absolutely adored Zelensky’s speech. The following example comes from CNN… "Zelensky’s words are not only destined for the history books. They will likely energize support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine and reverberate across the US. When America’s top Democrats and Republicans rose side by side to give Zelensky a standing ovation, we knew the Ukrainian President had made his mark. Zelensky, reminding Americans what freedom really means after the country has spent years devaluing it in petty political battles, proves there is a new seriousness in the nation."

And most members of Congress ate it up as well. Following the speech, Senator Jeanne Shaheen boldly declared that “more must be done to assist Ukraine”… “It is clear that more must be done to assist Ukraine and hold Putin to account,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire Democrat, said in a statement following Zelenskeyy’s virtual address. “The images we watched today underscore the horrific violence – the war crimes – being committed by Putin. He will pay for what he has done.”

And Senator Joni Ernst said that Zelensky’s speech made her want to put on a uniform and “go help”… ‘It’s hurtful to see anything like, you know, thinking about if it were my child, if that were my family, that were my people. You know, I’d be doing the exact same thing that President Zelensky is,’ Ernst said. "I would be appealing to every nation possible to get whatever it takes to defeat the Russians and get them the heck out of my country. You know, it makes me want to throw on my uniform, you know, and go help."

Actually, I would love to see that. In fact, I would love to see U.S., Ukrainian and Russian politicians all flown to an island where they would resolve this conflict “Battle Royale” style. But instead, all of the politicians are safe and warm while millions upon millions of Ukrainians deeply suffer.

One of the biggest warmongers in the U.S. Senate, Lindsey Graham, has decided that it is time to start calling Vladimir Putin “a war criminal”…“It’s time for him to go. He’s a war criminal,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an erstwhile standard bearer for the Republican Party’s Reagan-era foreign policies, told reporters shortly after Zelenskeyy’s address. “I am asking the Russian people to rise up and end his rein of terror.”

Joe Biden also referred to Putin as a “war criminal” on Wednesday, and he announced that an additional 800 million dollars in military aid would be given to the Ukrainian government. To be honest, it is quite an impressive list that the Ukrainians will be receiving…

800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems

2,000 Javelin, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems

100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems

100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns and 400 shotguns

Over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds

25,000 sets of body armor

25,000 helmets

But of course this is not nearly enough for some of the warmongers in Congress. In fact, 40 Republican senators just signed a letter “in which they strongly disagreed with the decision to not transfer aircraft and air defense systems to Ukraine from Poland”. Biden was hesitant to take such a step because it might start a shooting war with Russia, but apparently that is a risk that most Republican senators are willing to take.

Thankfully, most Americans do not actually want a shooting war with Russia. But according to one new survey, more than a third of all Americans “would favor military action even if it risks nuclear conflict with Russia”… "However, most Americans (62%) say they would oppose the U.S. “taking military action even if it risks a nuclear conflict with Russia.” About a third (35%) of Americans say they would favor military action in this scenario. Comparable shares in both parties (36% of Republicans, 35% of Democrats) say they would favor military action even if it risks nuclear conflict with Russia."

Those of us in the majority need to be much louder than those in the minority, because if the warmongers get their way we could eventually find ourselves in the middle of a nuclear conflict. And if that happens, there won’t be a future for our country.

Speaking of World War 3, Joe Biden is also escalating matters with China by sending thousands of U.S. troops to Australia… "The Pentagon is to deploy over two thousand troops to Australia by September to join an established rotational force of 200 in anticipation of a conflict with China, according to reports. The Daily Mail notes that “The contingent is part of an ongoing US initiative in the Indo-Pacific region to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan in coming years.” The report notes that 1000 marines have already arrived in the country. The battle lines are being drawn.

Once World War 3 fully erupts, it will be the United States on one side, and Russia and China on the other. If Americans truly understood what was at stake, there would be massive demonstrations in the streets of every major U.S. city right now. But the general population just doesn’t get it. They just assume that war is something that happens on the other side of the globe and that our leaders have everything under control.

Unfortunately, our leaders most definitely do not have everything under control, and when World War 3 fully erupts the death and destruction that we will witness will be absolutely unimaginable."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Bill Bonner, "Diaguita Lives Matter"

(The reservoir… Source: Bill)

"Diaguita Lives Matter"

by Bill Bonner

San Martin, Argentina - "Today, we leave the world of comedy and fantasy to take a look at real life. On Sunday, we went to visit the widow of a farmhand. Carlos drowned in a reservoir. We came to pay our respects… and find out more.

But first, let’s check the headlines. Here’s the latest from Bloomberg: "US Rent Inflation Hits New High, Led by Miami, with 39% Rate."

Another ‘Putin Price Hike!’ But don’t worry about it. The Fed is on the case. Bloomberg again: "Powell kicks off most aggressive rate tightening in decades. As expected, the Fed raised its inflation-adjusted key rate from around MINUS 7.7% to around MINUS 7.5%. And the plan is to keep raising it until it reaches MINUS 5% by the end of next year."

That ought to stop the Putin Price Hikes, right? The Fed chief also assured the world that the US is not going into recession: “The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy,” said he." Tighter? At the present rate, even by the end of 2023, the Fed will still be operating an extremely inflationary money policy.

Meanwhile, in the real world… Alicia’s lip quivered when we greeted her. Then, tears appeared in her eyes, running down her cheeks. The widow had two children at her side. One, a boy of about 12, kept his head down. The girl, maybe 6 or 7, didn’t seem to understand what had happened. She looked at us expectantly, as if we could explain it to her.

“Your father was a good man,” we told them. “He was a good worker. And very strong. He helped me build that little casita.” We pointed to a house in the distance which we built ten years ago and now graces the labels for our Tacana wine. Carlos was on that job, part of the crew. It was hard work under the intense sun and, for us, with little air. We weren’t used to the altitude. But Carlos lived here all his life; if it was hard work, he didn’t notice. He had a ready smile, and often, a puzzled look. We assumed it was because he couldn’t understand what we were talking about. Our Spanish was even poorer then than it is today. And in this part of Argentina, they speak a local idiom; even people from Buenos Aires have a hard time keeping up.

“He was very strong. He was able to lift big stones that I couldn’t lift myself. I will miss him.” That was about all we knew about Carlos. Since we worked on the little house together, we hadn’t seen much of him. He was probably about 37 years old. Well-built and good looking. But the salient fact about him is that he was found under the water in our new reservoir two weeks ago.

It is very rare for someone to drown in this area; there is very little water to drown in. “I waited for him on Saturday night,” Alicia explained. “He never came home. The next day, I took the kids up the river. We found him in the reservoir. It was horrible. What am I going to do?” We tried to comfort her with small gestures and sympathetic tears. But Alicia had practical things on her mind. “I hope you will give me a widow’s pension,” she said, briefly restraining the tears and raising her head. “We will make sure you and the children are taken care of,” we replied. “It is the least we can do for one of our good men.”

We were standing in front of the house where Carlos and Alicia lived. Built of mud bricks, Carlos had been adding to it. He had worked as a mason and was making a substantial addition. This was slightly odd, because the house didn’t belong to him, but to us. As far as we know, he had never asked permission to add onto it.

Of course, we would have said ‘yes,’ but Alicia had turned him in a different direction. She calls herself an “originaria,” a person who doesn’t have to ask permission, because of her indigenous status. She told the police that Carlos was an originario, too, though he had never made that clear to anyone else. The ‘originario’ idea has brought conflict to the valley. It causes family break-ups, distrust, and disrespect. Gates have been broken; houses have been occupied. Two of our remote cabins – used by us and the originarios themselves – were set on fire.

Faux Tribalism: Except for maybe 10% of the population who are of pure European descent, everyone else is a mestizo… a mixture. In terms of culture, place of origin, tradition and genetic make-up, they are all about the same people. Alicia is one of them. But when the legislature in far-off Buenos Aires gave special status to “indigenous people” who lived in a “traditional way” on long-held “tribal” land, there were some people who recognized a good hustle when they saw one.

Where we live there are no real “indigenous” people. The valley was cleared out 3 centuries ago. Since then, the area has evolved, but the basic economy has remained much the same. Europeans bring in money and technology to try to make the big farms pay (usually, they fail). The ‘local people,’ who trickled in from other areas, work for them, or own their own small farms.

But along came an opportunist from another province. He re-invented a tribe – the Diaguita – and made himself its chief. He then told the locals that if they said they were members of the tribe, they wouldn’t have to obey the laws of Argentina... they could reclaim their ancestral land… and they’d get money from the government. Since then, there has been little money forthcoming, but enough to keep the activists in business. Alicia’s brother is one of them. He and she look to us to pay the salaries, fix the roads, put in irrigation canals, bring in tractors and other equipment…and to give the widows a pension. But she nevertheless believes that she is the rightful owner of the land. Diaguita lives matter. Others, not so much.

It is a familiar conflict. There are those who expect to get what is coming to them by their own efforts – generally, providing goods and services to others. And there are those who look to their tribal connections, their race, their color, their family, party affiliation, politics, ideology or religion for their identity… their sense of worth… and their income. There are those who are proud of what they do, in other words; there are others who are proud of who they are. The former hope to get what they are after by giving to others; the latter believe their status confers special rights and benefits.

This is the fundamental difference between civilization and barbarism… between a command economy and capitalism… and between the Old Testament and the New one. In the Old Testament, for example, being a Jew is the name of the game. In the New Testament, we are told that just being a Jew or a Gentile is not enough. It is our acts (love thy neighbor!) that count.

Likewise, in the modern world achievements – providing oil, inventing the laptop computer, teaching children, flipping burgers, investing shrewdly – that lead to self-esteem and wealth. But some people insist that they are entitled to special treatment…

The Final Scene: We expressed our sympathy to Alicia. We promised to help. And then, after hugs and kisses, we took our leave and headed up the valley. We wanted to see how Carlos died. “Very strange,” a neighbor had commented. “He lived here all his life. He knew that reservoir. It is not possible that he fell in and drowned. There is one end where the water is deep. But most of it is only about 4 or 5 feet deep. The whole thing just doesn’t add up.”

We drove up the rough road to where we could go no further. The river was too high to cross. Taking off our shoes and rolling up our pants, we waded across. The water rushed by fast and cold, we had to hold onto each other to avoid falling in.

The reservoir was just in front of us, up a hill. It is surrounded by a wire fence to keep the cattle out. You have to open a gate to get in. “As soon as we found out, we called the police,” said the farmhand who accompanied us. “Of course, it took a few hours for them to get here. They pulled him out of the water. They examined the body. No sign of injury. But look… you can see his footprints.”

The reservoir is new. It is lined with black plastic. Still relatively clean, the footprints were unmistakable. “See… they are Carlos’ footprints. And there are only one set of footprints. He started here, where we are. He walked around the edge to the deep side and that is where the footprints end. The police said they thought he slid on the plastic into the water. And since he didn’t know how to swim, he drowned. And they found his phone over by the fence, on the ground.”

“You mean, he put his phone down, and then by accident, slid into the reservoir?” “Yes… that’s what they said happened.” “What happened to the phone?” “They gave it to Alicia. She said there was nothing unusual on it.”

Carlos’ family is suspicious. They don’t like or trust Alicia. They are not ‘originarios.’ “They think they can do whatever they want,” an informant remarked, speaking of the originarios, on condition of anonymity, and looking around the corner to make sure no one was listening. “Alicia was never honest with them. (Her husband’s family.) She treated them like trash. She thought she was better than everyone else, because she was an ‘originaria.’”

Thus began a long list of grudges and further elucidation of the struggle between the self-proclaimed ‘Diaguita’ tribe members and everyone else. “That ‘Diaguita’ thing is a lie. There never was a ‘Diaguita’ tribe. It was just a term the Inca used to describe the local people in this region. They thought the tribes here were backward. It was an insult.

“Alicia and her brother thought that could take the grandmother’s place… just because they said they were ‘Diaguita.’” Carlos’ grandmother lived in a high farm way up in the hills beyond the reservoir. The mountains are dry and hostile. But in them there are oases, where a trickle of reliable water allows a family to eke out a living. A few cattle. A few goats. A few fruit trees. Not much more.

When she turned 80, the family decided that their grandmother could no longer stay by herself at her mountain farm. She was taken down to the town to live with a granddaughter. These little farms are owned by us. But by custom, and today’s political reality, the local people decide for themselves who lives in them. Typically, they pass down through a family.

The originarios, however, are eager to get control of the whole valley. If a farm is abandoned, they move in… and then they cannot be removed. You call the police. The police hear “originario” and the potato is soon too hot to handle. “She’s had her eye on that farm for years. And now, with Carlos out of the way, I think she’s going to get more originarios in there.”

“How did Carlos seem to you when you last saw him,” we asked. “We talked to him on Friday; he died on Saturday. He seemed fine.” The police say the case is closed. But there’s always more to the story. Stay tuned..."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

"Time..."

“Space I can recover. Time, never.” 

-  Napoleon Bonaparte

○

“Lands can be reconquered, indeed in the course of a battle, a hill or a certain plain might trade hands several times. But missed opportunities? These can never be regained. Moments in time, in culture? They can never be re-made. One can never go back in time to prepare for what they should have prepared for, no one can ever get back critical seconds that were wasted out of fear or ego. Napoleon was brilliant at trading space for time: Sure, you can make these moves, provided you are giving me the time I need to drill my troops, or move them to where I want them to be. Yet in life, most of us are terrible at this. We trade an hour of our life here or afternoon there like it can be bought back with the few dollars we were paid for it. And it is only much, much later, as they are on their deathbeds or when they are looking back on what might have been, that many people realize the awful truth of this quote. Don’t do that. Embrace it now.”

- Ryan Holiday

○

Full screen recommended.

Hans Zimmer, "Time"

"Get Ready for a Recession, Real Estate Crash and Stocks to Drop"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly AM 3/17/22:

"Get Ready for a Recession, Real Estate Crash and Stocks to Drop"

"The experts agree that we have huge problems in the economy. There will be a recession by summer, a bear market in real estate and the stock market headed down."

"How It Really Is"

 

"Bonfire of the Governments, Part One"

"Bonfire of the Governments, Part One"

by Robert Gore

"When Machiavelli wrote "The Prince" he had Vladimir Putin in mind. The president of Russia has adroitly sought, maintained, and used power, the theme of Machiavelli’s masterpiece (see “The Black Belt Strategist,” Robert Gore. SLL, July 19, 2018). That he is an amoral snake is both true and laughable as a criticism coming from the amoral snakes who populate Western power structures. Nobody who slithers to the top of those pits is anything other than an amoral snake. Western snakes hate Putin because he’s repeatedly outsnaked them.

Call Putin a rattlesnake for he clearly rattled before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That he was ignored is a worrisome indication of the epistemological breakdown that grips the West. Its leaders are unable to grasp that Putin meant what he said because they rarely mean what they say. Facts are not facts and the truth is whatever narrative they’re promoting at the moment. It’s become axiomatic that power flows from control of the narrative.

Until it doesn’t. Power flows from understanding reality and making use of what it can offer. If narratives were power, Ukraine’s army would be in Moscow by now. We haven’t seen this kind of excessive excrement from governments and their media minions since Covid. Narratives are for simple-minded sheep and the wolves who devour them.

The propaganda is devoid of any mention of: the 2014 U.S.-sponsored coup against a democratically elected government; rampant corruption within the Ukrainian oligarchy; Ukranian payola to American political figures (e.g., the Bidens and Clintons); widespread neo-Nazi infestation of Ukraine’s military and government; their eight-year war on its Russian-heritage citizens in eastern Ukraine; the government’s willful failure to adhere to the Minsk accords that were meant to resolve that conflict, or the latest—U.S. supported bioresearch labs in Ukraine.

Simply trying to find accurate information about the military situation in Ukraine is virtually impossible amidst the propaganda onslaught and the censoring or shutting down of Russian information sources. Previous wars have featured regular press updates and maps that detailed the situation on the ground, that is, reality. Not this one. No matter how loathsome the opponents, it’s always a good idea to know what they’re doing and saying, even when its demonstrably untrue. During the first Cold War the West had armies of analysts studying every scrap of information that came from the Soviet Union.

Now Western leaders and most of the populace are flying blind. They’re children sticking their fingers in their ears and screaming over anyone saying anything they don’t want to hear. It’s yet another sign of epistemological breakdown and reflects a terrifying feedback loop. Mental chaos leads to chaos in reality, which leads to more mental chaos and so on.

Trying to explain the Russian position on Ukraine, even when the explanation is festooned with disclaimers that it’s not a justification of the invasion or Putin, is as useless as trying to explain the dangers of Covid vaccines, even by doctors and scientists who have promoted vaccines their entire careers and who have had the Covid vaccines themselves. The children have their masks jabs, and boosters, they’re waving the blue and gold. You’re antivax, pro-Putin, and must be canceled immediately - that’s it, end of story.

This childishness can only lead to disaster, which has arrived on multiple fronts. Russia is a net exporter of grain, minerals, metals, oil, and natural gas. The U.S. and non-Russia Europe are net exporters of debt. The former are exchanged for the latter via the SWIFT inter-bank messaging network, fiat currency and debt’s global circulatory system. Some Russian banks’ access has been cut off, stopping the flow of debt and the counter flow of Russian exports. Although payments for gas and oil exports have been exempted, Russian oil and gas still trades at a steep discount on fears the exemption will be lifted if the war gets worse.

The exemption reflects Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. However, Germany canceled approval for the completed Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia. The energy situation in Europe was already strained, with natural gas trading at a large premium to the rest of the world. Renewable energy is meant to replace fossil fuels and nuclear, but solar and wind are intermittent. The stopgap is coal, ironically the dirtiest fuel. European energy’s shortages and high price hurt the competitiveness of its industries, particularly Germany’s. Stopping Nord Stream 2 exacerbates the problem.

Biden administration energy policies have shifted towards the same delusory green agenda, making the U.S. an importer again after it had achieved energy self-sufficiency during the Trump years. Although it’s not a huge percentage of total energy used, the U.S. has been importing Russian oil, gas, and coal, giving Russia additional wherewithal to make war on Ukraine.

Recognizing that awkward fact, the administration banned those imports by executive decree (now the favored form of rule), which will put more pressure on prices from non-Russian energy sources. Ascending gas prices are not helping the administration politically, notwithstanding its blatant lies that they are due solely to Russia’s invasion. (Prices had almost doubled prior to the invasion.)

The U.S. and Europe’s energy miscues are matched by their financial folly, which amount to children holding their breath until they suffocate and die. Stopping Russia’s exports via the SWIFT cutoff is severe. The price of nickel, a big Russian export, recently jumped 250 percent in one day.

Tsingshan Holding Group, a Chinese stainless steel giant whose largest creditor is J.P. Morgan Chase, has a huge short position in nickel. The London Metals Exchange, caught between its own Chinese owners, Tsingshan, and one of the world’s systemically important banks, shut itself down and is trying to undo some trades. A tentative settlement has been reached, but this kind of mess can reverberate quickly throughout the world’s financial daisy chain, sparking globalized financial meltdown. It certainly doesn’t increase faith in financial clearinghouses.

That’s not the worst of it. Curtailed access to SWIFT hinders Russian companies’ ability to service their debts. As with most of the sanctions regime, this hurts Europe the most. Several of its banks have large exposures to Russia debt, and its banking system was dangerously over-leveraged pre-Ukraine war, much more so than the U.S.’s. Bank insolvencies in Europe could also reverberate across the planet, as mortgage and mortgage-security insolvencies did in the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Even that’s not the worst of it. The U.S. and Europe crossed a monumentally important red line when they froze the Russian central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. The U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status has given the U.S. what’s been called an exorbitant privilege - the world sends it goods in exchange for its fiat currency, of which it can produce unlimited amounts.

Freezing the Russian central bank’s dollar reserves tells the world the reserve currency is no longer a safe haven. The move is not entirely unprecedented - the U.S. has frozen the Afghanistan and Venezuelan central banks’ reserves - but freezing the reserves of a nuclear power is an order of magnitude greater breach of global financial arrangements and contracts.

Joining Canadian dollar deposits, some of which Justin Trudeau recently froze, U.S. dollar deposits can now be frozen and potentially expropriated on a political whim. Of course dollars have been stealth-expropriated on political whim via monetary inflation since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913, but this crystalizes the threat that nations who don’t toe the U.S. line will have their dollar reserves stolen.

Russia and China have been reducing their dollar holdings - which they often invested in U.S. Treasury debt - for years, switching to euros, yuan, yen, and gold. They’ve also created alternatives to SWIFT. Now that the U.S. government has demonstrated that holding dollar deposits is like caching stores of food in a wolves’ den, this move is sure to accelerate until their dollar holdings are the bare minimum required for international trade.

The Russians have a financial nuclear option. As exporters of oil, gas, crucial raw materials and industrial goods, they can demand payment in gold rather than in the fiat currencies the U.S. and Europe have now rendered worthless to them. With this one masterstroke Russia would collapse what Alasdair Macleod calls “the global fiat Ponzi scheme.” The reserve currency will no longer be a fake money whose value is only maintained by political promises not to produce too much of it.

Gold - real money (see “Real Money,” Robert Gore, SLL, September 9, 2015)—will be restored to the place it has held for centuries as countless government-issued fiat currencies went to their ultimate value: zero. The current crop of fiat currencies is headed to the same destination, but the Russian nuclear option would bring down the curtain on them once and for all.

Russia and China are both large producers of gold and their governments have been stockpiling it for years. The U.S. government reportedly owns 8,000 tons of gold (Russia has a known 2,000 tons and Macleod estimates the Chinese government has 20,000 tons), but those holdings have never been audited and calls to do so have been fiercely resisted. Unknown as well is how much of the U.S. government’s physical gold has been collateralized, leased, or is otherwise tied into derivatives in the paper gold market. Tellingly, the U.S. has discouraged other countries for whom it acts as custodian of their gold reserves from withdrawing them.

War is the ultimate chaos and the Ukraine-Russia war has sparked another upside breakout. To say that the military situation favors Russia, or that the sanctions against it will end up hurting the U.S. and Europe more than Russia, or that Russia can bring down the global financial system is only to say that one way or another the situation adds to the chaos. Assuming Russia eventually achieves its military objectives in Ukraine, the U.S. will undoubtedly foment an insurgency by feeding weapons and the usual unacknowledged mix of intelligence spooks, covert military advisors, and private mercenaries into an Ukrainian resistance.

The goal is a long-running and enervating guerrilla war that drains Putin’s support and leads to his ouster. Cheap Stinger missiles will take out expensive Russian aircraft and cheap Javelin missiles will take out expensive Russian tanks. The template is the successful mujahideen-led and U.S.-aided war against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1989 in Afghanistan, often credited with helping bring down the Soviet government two years after its military withdrawal.

Syria may end up as the actual template, an effort by U.S.-aided jihadist groups to regime change that nation’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, which failed after Russia came to Syria’s defense. Even were that the case, if Putin thinks he can invade Ukraine, impose his objectives, and then withdraw with the country pacified and compliant, he’s as deluded as American schemers have been with all their surgical strikes, covert operations, limited wars, and regime changes since World War II. Insurgencies are always messy regardless of who “wins.” Ukraine has become another theater for the uncontrollable chaos engulfing the world.

It’s not hard to imagine what forms further amplification of that chaos might take. Modern agriculture is dependent on energy and fertilizers are made from minerals of which Ukraine and Russia are significant suppliers. Both countries also export grains. Skyrocketing food prices and famine in some areas loom, and food riots and other forms of civil unrest are sure to follow.

There is no limit to the pandemonium either centralized actors - governments and globalist institutions - or decentralized actors can wreak. Infrastructure is never completely protected. Electrical grids can be short-circuited, water supplies poisoned, transport and logistics disrupted or destroyed, and the internet sabotaged. The World Economic Forum’s Cyber Polygon “simulation” may well be an eerie harbinger of that last possibility, just as its Event 201 in October of 2019 presaged the Covid-19 pandemic. We’re still early days in chaos’s lengthy run.

Controlling chaos requires energy, resources, and production. While there is no way to determine the mathematical relationship between chaos and control (remember Get Smart?), that it is direct and exponential seems a reasonable hypothesis. Herein lies the contradiction at the heart of the globalist design. They are fomenting ever-increasing chaos while destroying the energy, resources, and production necessary to control it."

This is Part One. Part Two will be posted next week.

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "Important Updates: Economy, Stocks, Markets"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/17/22:

"Important Updates: Economy, Stocks, Markets"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Gerald Celente, "The Bombs Away Club. What’s Next In the Ukraine War?"

Full screen recommended.

Gerald Celente, Douglas Macgregor,

"The Bombs Away Club. What’s Next In the Ukraine War?"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com/

○

"NATO Calls up Hundreds of Thousands of Troops Ready to Begin WWIII"

○

"What's He To Do Then?"

"You've seed how things goes in the world o' men. You've knowed men to be low-down and mean. You've seed ol' Death at his tricks... Ever' man wants life to be a fine thing, and a easy. 'Tis fine, boy, powerful fine, but 'tain't easy. Life knocks a man down and he gits up and it knocks him down agin. I've been uneasy all my life... I've wanted life to be easy for you. Easier'n 'twas for me. A man's heart aches, seein' his young uns face the world. Knowin' they got to get their guts tore out, the way his was tore. I wanted to spare you, long as I could. I wanted you to frolic with your yearlin'. I knowed the lonesomeness he eased for you. But ever' man's lonesome. What's he to do then? What's he to do when he gits knocked down? Why, take it for his share and go on.”

- Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings

"What Keeps You Going..."

"What keeps you going isn't some fine destination but just the road you're on, and the fact that you know how to drive. You keep your eyes open, you see this damned-to-hell world you got born into, and you ask yourself, 'What life can I live that will let me breathe in and out and love somebody or something and not run off screaming into the woods?'"

- Barbara Kingsolver

"The Pale Blue Dot"

Full screen recommended.

"The Pale Blue Dot"

by Carl Sagan

"From this distant vantage point, the Earth might not seem of any particular interest. But for us, it’s different. Consider again that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every ‘superstar,’ every ‘supreme leader,’ every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there - on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity - in all this vastness - there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. 

The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known."

"Get Your Stuff Together..."

"We all got problems. But there's a great book out called "Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart." Did you see that? That book says the statute of limitations has expired on all childhood traumas. Get your stuff together and get on with your life, man. Stop whinin' about what's wrong, because everybody's had a rough time, in one way or another."

- Quincy Jones

"Petrodollar Collapse: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan For Chinese Oil Sales"

Full screen recommended.

"Petrodollar Collapse: Saudi Arabia Considers

Accepting Yuan For Chinese Oil Sales"

by Epic Economist

"One silent crisis is threatening to change everything in the United States. The U.S. dollar may be about to lose its status as the global reserve currency at a time our monetary system is already cracking and inflation is debasing the value of our money. A lot is at stake right now, and if the dollar loses its hegemony on global trade, the U.S. economy is going to be in deep trouble.

Recent negotiations between China and Saudi Arabia are a major indication that the U.S. dollar is on its way out as the global reserve currency. Saudi Arabia is now is actively engaging in negotiations with the Chinese government to price oil sales to China in yuan instead of using the petrodollar. The fact that two commodity-rich countries are conducting business and about to close a billionaire deal without using the petrodollar means trouble for America’s dominance as the global economic hegemon.

For the past 40 years, the currency was one of the core staples and an anchor that helped support the U.S. dollar’s reserve status. The entire global financial system used to be based on the petrodollar, with oil producers selling their product to America and the rest of the world only in dollars, which consequently propped up the USD as the world reserve currency and reinforced the standing of the U.S. as the world's undisputed financial superpower. But things are changing fast and those days are coming to an end.

Today, China purchases over 25% of the oil exported by Saudi Arabia, and if those exports are priced in yuan, the sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and help the Chinese currency to become the new global reserve currency. “The dynamics have dramatically changed. The U.S. relationship with the Saudis has changed, China is the world’s biggest crude importer and they are offering many lucrative incentives to the kingdom,” explained one Saudi official familiar with the negotiations. “China has been offering everything you could possibly imagine to the kingdom,” the official stressed.

Needless to say, the U.S. is getting very alarmed about the potential of this historic transformation. One U.S. official said in the interview with the WSJ that “the idea of the Saudis selling oil to China in yuan seems highly volatile and aggressive”. The official also revealed that the Saudis had floated the idea several times in the past when there was tension between Washington and Riyadh.

That’s how the pieces of the endgame start falling into place. While Russia is starving the western world of the resources it needs, which has been driving commodity prices to all-time highs, its silent partner, China, is quietly picking up the monetary pieces and taking advantage of the Western scramble to secure resources at all costs by approaching all those other "non-western" former petrodollar clients - who are also rich in other resources - to offer them a new product, the yuan, which Beijing is now actively and aggressively pushing to dethrone the dollar as a global reserve currency.

Our currency is the number one thing that we export, and if the rest of the world decides it doesn’t want dollars anymore we will be in really big trouble. This means we are going to lose the main driver that allowed us to enjoy a comfortable standard of living for so many years. And with U.S. relations with China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia rapidly falling apart, we will see the escalation of the economic tensions with other superpowers, and that is going to be a very dangerous game to play."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

○

"We're so freakin' doomed!"

- The Mogambo Guru

The Mogambo Guru Obituary

"Articles By The Mogambo Guru"

"Fed Unleashing 'Triple Whammy'”

"Fed Unleashing 'Triple Whammy'”

by Jim Rickards

"As widely expected, the Fed raised its target rate today, its first rate hike since December 2018. As you may recall, that hike crashed the stock market in what became known as the Christmas Eve Massacre. Today’s hike was only 25 basis points, not the 50-point hike some were predicting prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In a sense, Putin took the pressure off Jay Powell to make a bolder move.

The market rallied today, closing up big, but that’s not really a surprise. Markets were expecting a 25-basis-point hike, and they got one. What the stock market doesn’t like is surprises. Although today’s hike was minor, up is up. Importantly, this rate hike is the first of many more to come. We don’t have to guess at that. The Fed has already told us that’s their intention. The Fed also confirmed today that the taper is over. A so-called taper is the process of slowing the rate at which the money supply is expanding.

How Is Money Printing Tightening? When the Fed buys Treasury securities from banks, they pay for the securities with money printed from thin air. That’s called quantitative easing, or QE. The Fed has been doing that since early 2020 when the pandemic began. The Fed gets out of QE in stages by reducing the amount of securities they buy each month; that’s the so-called taper. They’re still printing money, but the amount printed is reduced until it hits zero.

It may seem odd to call money printing tightening, but everything in markets happens at the margins. If the Fed is printing less, they are tightening even though they’re still printing. The amount of QE hit zero last week, so QE is now officially over, the taper is done and the Fed is contemplating their next move.

The Fed also signaled they intend to actually reduce the money supply in the near future. This is the opposite of QE and is called quantitative tightening, or QT. This has not yet begun, but the Fed has made it clear they will start QT soon.

A Triple Whammy: So we have three forms of tightening at once: the end of QE, a rate hike and the beginning of QT. This is a triple whammy that will slam the U.S. economy and send stock markets down sharply in the days ahead. That’s not what the Fed wants, but that’s what they’re going to get.

When the Fed started QT in late 2017, they urged market participants to ignore it. They said the QT plan was on autopilot, the Fed was not going to use it as an instrument of policy and that it would “run on background” just like a computer program that’s open but not in use at the moment. It’s fine for the Fed to say that, but markets had another view. Analysts estimate that QT is the equivalent of two–four rate hikes per year over and above the explicit rate hikes. Not surprisingly, we had the Christmas Eve Massacre in December 2018, and Powell was forced to begin easing policy again.

The key takeaway is that tightening policy in a weak economy is almost certainly a recipe for a recession. When the recession does arrive, the Fed won’t have enough “dry powder” to fight it. The Fed needs rates to be at least 3%, and preferably higher, when recession begins. That gives it plenty of room to cut rates. But recession will hit long before the Fed can get rates that high, so cutting rates won’t be much help.

The Fed Is Far Behind the Curve on Inflation: Today’s actions are all in response to raging inflation. But it’s too late. The Fed is far behind the curve. The inflation is here and it’s about to get worse. Even worse, the Fed doesn’t understand why. They’re used to models that focus on “demand pull” inflation where consumers are buying in anticipation of even higher inflation to come. But the data shows that consumers actually don’t expect much inflation after this initial wave. Medium-term expectations are still anchored. The best research shows that expectations are overrated anyway. What affects behavior is what’s happening right now, not the expected future.

The inflation we’re seeing is called “cost push” inflation. This comes from the supply side, not the demand side. It consists of higher oil prices due to Biden policies of shutting down domestic oil production. It also comes from global supply chain disruption, and now the war in Ukraine. Since the Fed has misdiagnosed the disease, they are applying the wrong medicine. Tight money won’t solve a supply shock. Higher prices will continue. But tight money will hurt consumers, increase savings and raise mortgage interest rates, which hurts housing. The Fed is tightening into weakness.

The Fed’s Nothing if Not Consistent: The Fed’s track record of using the wrong models, using flawed models and doing the wrong thing at the wrong time remains intact. Today’s Fed announcement is the beginning of a chain of tightening that will sink stock markets and slow the economy.

Those rate hikes are a huge mistake, but the Fed will do it anyway. It really has no clue about the real world. I’m a big critic of the Fed models because they’re obsolete and they don’t accord with reality. When the Fed realizes its mistake of tightening into economic weakness, it will have to turn on a dime and shift to an easing policy.

What would cause the Fed to back off? A market meltdown. If the stock market sells off 5%, which would be over 1,700 points on the Dow, that would not be enough to throw them off. But if it goes down 15%, or over 5,000 points from current levels, that’s a different story. Ben Bernanke actually told me that once.

Easing will come first through forward guidance and pauses in the rate hike tempo, then possibly actual rate cuts back to zero and finally reversing their balance sheet reductions by expanding the balance sheet through more QE if needed. But by then, the damage will have been done. We can see the damage coming and plan accordingly."

- dailyreckoning.com

"FED Protects Stock Market, Ignores Inflation, Wrecks Economy And The Consumer"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 3/16/22:

"FED Protects Stock Market, Ignores Inflation,

 Wrecks Economy And The Consumer"

Musical Interlude: Afshin, "Prayer of Change"

Full screen recommended.

Afshin, "Prayer of Change"