Running 'Cause I Can't Fly 2

Monday, December 6, 2021

"The Bottom Is Far Lower Than Anyone Believes Possible"

"The Bottom Is Far Lower Than Anyone Believes Possible"

by Charles Hugh Smith

"All bubbles share common characteristics: during the euphoric expansion, participants are richly rewarded for buying every dip and for confidently embracing the belief that this time it's different. (Exactly how it's different changes from bubble to bubble, but the core mechanism is identical: for these entirely rational and "mathy" reasons, this time is truly different.)

The common characteristic when bubbles pop is the eventual bottom is far lower than anyone believes possible. This confidence in the bubble's permanence permeates the entire financial system and encourages a faith that buying every dip will continue to be the road to easy wealth. When euphoric risk-on switches polarity to risk-off, buying every dip becomes the road to ruin as the eventual bottom is incomprehensibly lower than the first stairstep down.

Here's a composite of what happened during the dot-com bubble burst. An Internet company that hit $90 per share has slipped to $60, and investment banks are recommending it at $60 based on "the Internet has endless growth ahead" and the loss of a third of its valuation makes it a relative bargain. The I>buy the dip crowd has already lost money buying every stairstep down, but a 30% decline must near the bottom, right?

Perhaps a 30% decline is the bottom in a risk-on market, but in a risk-off market, the eventual bottom isn't $60, it's $6 per share. In the optimistic, euphoric "this is permanent" risk-on phase, a $15 drop from $90 to $75 is a screaming buy. A decline to $60 is literally incomprehensible. The decline to $40 is a shock to the system because the rebound to $90 was the near-universal expectation. Those who could have sold at $85, $75, $65, $55 and $45 but did not are now so shell-shocked they cannot grasp that selling at $40 is the fantastic opportunity of a lifetime compared to selling at $9 or the eventual bottom at $6.

The mindset of decline is loss: those holding on for the "guaranteed" rebound to bubble highs can't bear to sell because that represents a loss of the profit that could have been reaped by selling at $90. Oh my, I've lost $50 per share of profit if I sell at $40. That's too painful to contemplate so instead the "diamond hands" punter holds on to the hope that the rebound from $40 to $90 is inevitable and merely a matter of patience (and yowza, I'll sell every share once it goes back up to $90).

But this isn't how risk-off markets function. Buy the dip rallies suck in true believers and then fade to new lows. Every new low is pronounced capitulation, i.e. the golden moment when every potential seller (weak hands) has sold and only strong hands are left. But only the oldest participants have experienced real capitulation and nobody listens to those old codgers because this time it's different and so the experience of ancient geezers doesn't apply.

Real capitulation is not an exciting flush and a soaring rebound. That's nothing but the late-stage euphoria of a risk-on market. Real risk-off capitulation is more like cleaning up after a giant party that ended badly. The unfortunate misadventures have been buried, the catatonic have been relegated to the funny farm, ahem, institutional care, and the walking wounded have gone back to the shattered shards of their pre-party lives or taken up residence in an RV just over the ridge from the Hotel California.

Those cleaning up the mess are tired and moving slowly. The clean-up and the drudgery seem endless. Nobody is in the mood to crack open a leftover bottle of champagne. They just want the pain to go away. The dream of the "guaranteed rebound" has dissipated, along with the confidence that this time it's different, easy wealth is one buy-the-dip away and strong hands are always rewarded with immense gains "because the Fed." Few players have the capital or desire to gamble in the casino that they mistakenly thought was rigged in their favor.

It was rigged in someone's favor, but not theirs. The smart hands were touting the stock at $80 and furiously (but oh so quietly) selling all the way down to those who had no experience in risk-off markets.

Nobody can fathom how low stocks can go at the eventual bottom. In a more recent example, consider the price action in a marijuana sector stock, Tilray (TLRY). Believers in the future prospects of the sector pushed the share price of TLRY to over $300. At the eventual capitulation low, shares traded hands in the $3 range-- a roughly 99% decline.

History is full of examples of 80% declines, 90%, 95% and yes, 99% declines. No one predicted the eventual capitulation low because such declines were inconceivable. Any decline could not possibly be more than three or four steps; a nightmarish fall into a chasm could not even be imagined.

And so here we are, witnessing the switch from risk-on to risk-off in real time. Retail investors are buying every dip with gusto, margin debt is at record highs and insiders are selling quietly but furiously as they race to dump all their over-valued shares on buy-the-dip believers in the permanence of risk-on euphoria and valuations.

From $900 to $90 is unimaginable. Yes, it is unimaginable now, but it will become conceivable as the risk-on bubble deflates, but too late for all those who clung on to the faith that risk-on euphoria is permanent. The final redoubt of risk-on markets is the confidence that I will get out at the top. The problem with this notion is there is no top in greed and hubris, and greed and hubris are the engines of risk-on markets. So please fall carefully into the chasm.

How do I know all this? Experience. Like most participants, I learned about risk-off markets and bubble pops the hard way, falling not-so carefully into the chasm."

- http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/

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"Confidence In The Bubble; Euphoric Investors; Easy Wealth; Buy The Dip Believers; Economic Ruin"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 12/6/21:

"Confidence In The Bubble; Euphoric Investors;

Easy Wealth; Buy The Dip Believers; Economic Ruin"

"Supply Chain Crisis Is Starting To Get Really Crazy: Be Ready For The Coming Apocalyptic End Game"

Full screen recommended.

"Supply Chain Crisis Is Starting To Get Really Crazy:

Be Ready For The Coming Apocalyptic End Game"

by Epic Economist

"The supply chain crisis is leaving hundreds of cargo ships stuck outside ports while more and more store shelves go empty around the nation as consumer demand intensifies amid the busy holiday shopping season. Truck and rail freight are also completely congested, falling victim to the slow-arriving cargo from international suppliers and a persistent labor shortage. But the crisis is also impacting supply chains on a local level, with many construction projects having to be put off across several U.S. cities, according to government officials.

Many big urban centers and small towns around the country are similarly struggling with the latest slowdown in the global supply chain, which has been leaving thousands of projects only halfway ready. Some key building materials cannot be found anywhere anymore, and even though companies have started ordering more supplies to fight local shortages, extended delivery delays mean that construction will remain halted for the foreseeable future.

“You’re having delays on any type of materials,” added Dothan Mayor Mark Saliba. “Any infrastructure work involving pipe is hard to get. Electrical supplies are hard to get. Paint has been put on backorders. And it ranges from three months to 1- 1/2 years. Nearly everything we have is delayed.”

Industry experts are warning that the combination of extreme weather this winter plus the emergence of a new virus variant are creating a "logistic nightmare” that will leave gaps on stores shelves until 2023. Even before the health crisis, transporting empty containers around the world significantly increased shipping costs. And the fast spread of a new virus strain is making everything a whole lot worse.

In China, new lockdowns and travel restrictions have sparked another surge in container demand, as manufacturers rush to export household goods before borders are effectively closed. That has set off a cascade effect, prompting intermittent and ongoing shocks across the global supply chain, draining spare shipping and port capacity. In short, if it was difficult meeting consumer demand before, now it has become almost impossible.

With the new port closures, logistics are severely compromised and maritime transportation services are in. And conditions are set to get worse, because another problem is raising concerns too. A devastating water shortage in China may be the factor that pushes U.S. supply chains over the edge.

The country is dramatically short on the water it needs to maintain its economy. A recent report published by The Hill has exposed that China’s per capita water availability is one-quarter of the global average, and nearly 700 million of its citizens are currently living in regions considered highly water-stressed.

China’s water shortages are having a massive impact in electrical power generation, and the nation’s hydroelectric and coal power producers are facing severe hardships due to irregular water access. Chinese officials have responded to the widespread power outages by cutting down on industrial energy consumption, and as a consequence, the nation's manufacturers are facing another series of disruptions.

That's where things get tricky for America’s supply chains. The United States imports huge quantities of manufactured goods from China, including 70 percent of Walmart’s store merchandise, and 40 percent of all the clothing items sold around the country. China is also the main producer of key industrial products that we use to finish our domestic construction projects, such as steel, aluminum and

All of this is resulting in the aggravation of the global container shortage, and pushing shipping costs to levels never seen before in all history. Michelle Bockmann, the markets editor for Lloyd’s List, warned that supply costs are spiraling "out of control" due to the latest port closures. Bockmann revealed that spot rates for transporting a single container have rocketed by 366 percent in the past year while longer-term shipping contract rates shot up up by 465 percent.

Andrew Goodacre, the Chief Executive for the British Independent Retailers Association echoed Bockmann’s comments and alerted that costs will be passed onto U.S. consumers.“The inflation in the supply chain is much higher than the consumer inflation you are seeing at 5 percent,” Goodacre pointed out, outlining that the situation is becoming unsustainable and that businesses are likely to pass on a higher share of those increased shipping costs to consumers.

2022 will definitely be difficult year. With the economy slumping, markets crashing, and supply chains breaking apart, we should all brace for some serious challenges in the months ahead. Our country is rapidly collapsing into chaos, and all factors are aligning to change the course of our history."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

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"So Much For Fixing Supply Chains: A Record 96

Containerships Are Waiting To Dock At SoCal Ports"

- https://www.freightwaves.com/

"When Idiocy Becomes Hardwired"

"When Idiocy Becomes Hardwired"

by Jeff Thomas

"At this point, virtually all of us over the age of forty have encountered enough "snowflakes" (those Millennials who have a meltdown if anything they say or believe is challenged) to understand that, increasingly, young people are being systemically coddled to the point that they cannot cope with their "reality" being questioned.

The post-war baby boomers were the first "spoiled" generation, with tens of millions of children raised under the concept that, "I don’t want my children to have to experience the hardships that I faced growing up."

Those jurisdictions that prospered most (the EU, US, Canada, etc.) were, not coincidentally, the ones where this form of childrearing became most prevalent. The net result was the ’60s generation – young adults who could be praised for their idealism in pursuing the peace movement, the civil rights movement, and equal rights for women. But those same young adults were spoiled to the degree that many felt that it made perfect sense that they should attend expensive colleges but spend much of their study time pursuing sex, drugs, and rock and roll. Flunking out or dropping out was not seen as a major issue and very few of them felt any particular guilt about having squandered their parents’ life savings in the process.

The boomer generation then became the yuppies as they hit middle age, and not surprisingly, many coddled their own children even more than they themselves had been coddled. As a result of ever-greater indulgence with each new generation of children, tens of millions of Millennials now display the result of parents doing all they can to remove every possible hardship from their children’s experience, no matter how small.

Many in their generation never had to do chores, have a paper route, or get good grades in order to be given an exceptional reward, such as a cell phone. They grew to adulthood without any understanding of cause and effect, effort and reward.

Theoretically, the outcome was to be a generation that was free from troubles, free from stress, who would have only happy thoughts. The trouble with this ideal was that, by the time they reached adulthood, many of the critical life’s lessons had been missing from their upbringing. In the years during which their brains were biologically expanding and developing, they had been hardwired to expect continued indulgence throughout their lives. Any thought that they had was treated as valid, even if it was insupportable in logic.

And, today, we’re witnessing the fruits of this upbringing. Tens of millions of Millennials have never learned the concept of humility. They’re often unable to cope with their thoughts and perceptions being questioned and, in fact, often cannot think outside of themselves to understand the thoughts and perceptions of others.

They tend to be offended extremely easily and, worse, don’t know what to do when this occurs. They have such a high perception of their own self-importance that they can’t cope with being confronted, regardless of the validity of the other person’s reasoning. How they feel is far more important than logic or fact.

Hypersensitive vulnerability is a major consequence, but a greater casualty is Truth. Truth has gone from being fundamental to being something "optional" – subjective or relative and of lesser importance than someone being offended or hurt.

Of course, it would be easy to simply fob these young adults off as emotional mutants – spiteful narcissists – who cannot survive school without the school’s provision of safe spaces, cookies, puppies, and hug sessions. Previous generations of students (my own included) were often intimidated when presented with course books that had titles like Elements of Calculus and Analytic Geometry. But such books had their purpose. They were part of what had to be dealt with in order to be prepared for the adult world of ever-expanding technology.

In addition, it was expected that any student be prepared to learn (at university, if he had not already done so at home), to consider all points of view, including those less palatable. In debating classes, he’d be expected to take any side of any argument and argue it as best he could. In large measure, these requirements have disappeared from institutions of higher learning, and in their place, colleges provide coloring books, Play-Doh, and cry closets.

At the same time as a generation of "snowflakes" is being created, the same jurisdictions that are most prominently creating them (the above-mentioned EU, US, Canada, etc.) are facing, not just a generation of young adults who have a meltdown when challenged in some small way. They’re facing an international economic and political meltdown of epic proportions. Several generations of business and political leaders have created the greatest "kick the can" bubble that the world has ever witnessed.

We can’t pinpoint the day on which this bubble will pop, but it would appear that we may now be quite close, as those who have been kicking the can have been running out of the means to continue. The approach of a crisis is doubly concerning, as, historically, whenever generations of older people destroy their economy from within, it invariably falls to the younger generation to dig the country out of the resultant rubble.

Never in history has a crisis of such great proportions loomed and yet, never in history has the unfortunate generation that will inherit the damage been so unequivocally incapable of coping with that damage. As unpleasant as it may be to accept, there’s no solution for idiocy. Any society that has hardwired a generation of its children to be unable to cope will find that that generation will be a lost one. It will, in fact, be the following generation – the one that has grown up during the aftermath of the collapse – that will, of necessity, develop the skills needed to cope with an actual recovery.

So, does that mean that the world will be in chaos for more than a generation before the next batch of people can be raised to cope? Well, no. Actually, that’s already happening. In Europe, where the Millennial trend exists, western Europeans have been growing up coddled and incapable, whilst eastern Europeans, who have experienced war and hardship, are growing up to be quite capable of handling whatever hardships come their way. Likewise, in Asia, the percentage of young people who are being raised to understand that they must soon shoulder the responsibility of the future is quite high.

And elsewhere in the world – outside the sphere of the EU, US, Canada, etc. – the same is largely true. As has been forever true throughout history, civilization does not come to a halt. It’s a "movable feast" that merely changes geographic locations from one era to another. Always, as one star burns out, another takes its place. What’s of paramount importance is to read the tea leaves – to see the future coming and adjust for it."

- internationalman.com

Musical Interlude: Justin Hayward, "The Way of the World"

Full screen recommended.

Justin Hayward, "The Way of the World"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Do you see the bat? It haunts this cosmic close-up of the eastern Veil Nebula. The Veil Nebula itself is a large supernova remnant, the expanding debris cloud from the death explosion of a massive star. While the Veil is roughly circular in shape and covers nearly 3 degrees on the sky toward the constellation of the Swan (Cygnus), NGC 6995, known informally as the Bat Nebula, spans only 1/2 degree, about the apparent size of the Moon. That translates to 12 light-years at the Veil's estimated distance, a reassuring 1,400 light-years from planet Earth.

In the composite of image data recorded through narrow band filters, emission from hydrogen atoms in the remnant is shown in red with strong emission from oxygen atoms shown in hues of blue. Of course, in the western part of the Veil lies another seasonal apparition: the Witch's Broom Nebula."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap211027.html

"I Don't Want..."

“I don’t want to pass through life like a smooth plane ride. All you do is get to breathe and copulate and finally die. I don’t want to go with the smooth skin and the calm brow. I hope I end up a blithering idiot cursing the sun- hallucinating, screaming, giving obscene and inane lectures on street corners and public parks. People will walk by and say, “Look at that drooling idiot. What a basket case.” I will turn and say to them, “It is you who are the basket case! For every moment you hated your job, cursed your wife and sold yourself to a dream that you didn’t even conceive. For the times your soul screamed yes and you said no. For all of that. For your self-torture, I see the glowing eyes of the sun! The air talks to me! I am at all times!” And maybe, the passersby will drop a coin into my cup.”

- Henry Rollins

Chet Raymo, “Not Known, Because Not Looked For”

“Not Known, Because Not Looked For”

by Chet Raymo

“A reader shared with us those well-known lines of T. S. Eliot (“Little Gidding”). It is not quite what Eliot is up to, but I was reminded of some lines of Pascal that I shared here several years ago: “Scientific learning is composed of two opposites which nonetheless meet each other. The first is the natural ignorance that is man’s lot at birth. The second is represented by those great minds that have investigated all knowledge accumulated by man only to discover at the end that in fact they know nothing. Thus they return to the same fundamental ignorance they had thought to leave. Yet this ignorance they have now discovered is an intellectual achievement. It is those who have departed from their original condition of ignorance but have been incapable of completing the full cycle of learning who offer us a smattering of scientific knowledge and pass sweeping judgments. These are the mischief makers, the false prophets.” (“Pensees” V:327)

It took almost three centuries for Pascal’s remarkable insight to become the common opinion of scientists. The 20th-century philosopher Karl Popper expressed it this way: “The more we learn about the world, and the deeper our learning, the more conscious, specific, and articulate will be our knowledge of what we do not know, our knowledge of our ignorance. For this, indeed, is the main source of our ignorance- the fact that our knowledge can be only finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.”

It is an odd, unsettling thought that the culmination of the scientific quest- the long slow gathering of reliable empirical knowledge of the world- should be confirmation of how little we understand about the universe we live in. A willingness to say “I don’t know” is a prerequisite of scientific discovery. Only in the silence of acknowledged ignorance can we hear - half hear - the thing that calls us to attend.

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "BE WARNED: Central Banks Are Deliberately Trying To Break The Global Economy"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/6/21:

"BE WARNED: Central Banks Are Deliberately

Trying To Break The Global Economy"

- https://traderschoice.net/

The Daily "Near You?"

Mukwonago, Wisconsin, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"We Are Never Deceived..."

"We are never deceived; we deceive ourselves."

- Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “October”

“October”

"There’s this shape, black as the entrance to a cave.

A longing wells up in its throat

like a blossom

as it breathes slowly.

What does the world

mean to you if you can’t trust it

to go on shining when you’re

not there? and there’s

a tree, long-fallen; once

the bees flew to it, like a procession

of messengers, and filled it

with honey.

I said to the chickadee, singing his heart out in the

green pine tree:

little dazzler

little song,

little mouthful.

The shape climbs up out of the curled grass. It

grunts into view. There is no measure

for the confidence at the bottom of its eyes-

there is no telling

the suppleness of its shoulders as it turns

and yawns.

Near the fallen tree

something - a leaf snapped loose

from the branch and fluttering down - tries to pull me

into its trap of attention.

It pulls me into its trap of attention,

And when I turn again, the bear is gone.

Look, hasn’t my body already felt

like the body of a flower?

Look, I want to love this world

as thought it’s the last chance I’m ever going to get

to be alive and know it.

Sometimes in late summer I won’t touch anything, not

the flowers, not the blackberries

brimming in the thickets; I won’t drink

from the pond; I won’t name the birds or the trees;

I won’t whisper my own name.

One morning

the fox came down the hill, glittering and confident,

and didn’t see me - and I thought:

so this is the world.

I’m not in it.

It is beautiful."

- Mary Oliver

"Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent"

Full screen recommended.

"Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song

Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent"

By Melanie Curtin

"Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here's a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one's health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.

Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.

According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- "Weightless"- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants' overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.

Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created "Weightless", Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener's heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.

When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn't be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer's, or influenza.

In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you've got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.

Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, "'Weightless' was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous." So don't drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:

10. "We Can Fly," by Rue du Soleil (Café Del Mar)

9. "Canzonetta Sull'aria," by Mozart

8. "Someone Like You," by Adele

7. "Pure Shores," by All Saints

6. "Please Don't Go," by Barcelona

5. "Strawberry Swing," by Coldplay

4. "Watermark," by Enya

3. "Mellomaniac (Chill Out Mix)," by DJ Shah

2. "Electra," by Airstream

1. "Weightless," by Marconi Union

I made a public playlist of all of them on Spotify that runs about 50 minutes (it's also downloadable)."

- http://www.stumbleupon.com/

“Chronic Stress: The Hidden Health Risks”

“Chronic Stress: The Hidden Health Risks”

By Meryl Davids Landau

“According to a recent American Psychological Association poll, nearly a quarter of Americans confessed to currently feeling under "extreme stress." Respondents especially blamed money, work, and the economy—a feeling 50-year-old Sue Wasserman knows all too well. In February, the public relations manager left Atlanta after her job was eliminated by a corporate restructuring and took a new post in Asheville, N.C. When that proved a bad fit, she struck out on her own as a freelance writer and publicist. Though Wasserman is thrilled some days to be living near the Blue Ridge Mountains, the uncertainty of her income overwhelms her. "There's a sense of foreboding—of 'What did I just do?' " she says.

Short periods of tension can actually be beneficial to people, sharpening thinking and heightening physical response in situations where performance counts, such as business meetings or athletic competitions. But experts are clear that when individuals are routinely under assault—over money, health woes, a daily freeway commute, whatever—a biological system that was designed to occasionally fight or flee a predator gets markedly out of balance. "The body's delicate feedback system starts to malfunction," says David Spiegel, director of the Center on Stress and Health at Stanford University.

Stress has been found to play a role in so many diseases of modern life—from asthma, depression, and migraine flares to heart attacks, cancer, and diabetes—that it likely accounts for more than half of the country's healthcare-related expenses, says George Chrousos, a distinguished visiting scientist at the National Institutes of Health. Chrousos spearheaded a conference on "The Profound Impact of Stress" in Washington, D.C., to educate policymakers and the public.

For decades, researchers have worked to unlock the scientific puzzle of how stress pervades and influences so many organ systems. In recent years, with an improved knowledge of biology and advanced laboratory techniques, they have produced a picture that identifies many more complex, and longer-lasting, effects than were previously understood.

One of the more disconcerting findings is that children (and perhaps even unborn babies) exposed to extreme emotional stressors may face a lifetime of consequences. "Children are extremely vulnerable to stress, because of their rapidly developing brain and their lack of prior experience with it," Chrousos says. In early March, Duke University scientists reported that twins ages 5 to 10 who had been targets of frequent bullying or physical assault or who watched their mothers become victims of domestic violence showed signs of premature aging in their cells, a risk factor for many diseases in adulthood.

Even more disturbing research reported in summer 2011 by German scientists and researchers at the University of California found that fetuses can be affected by their mother's emotional stress. Young adults whose mothers experienced a major event while pregnant with them, such as the loss of their home or the death of a relative, also had significant premature cell aging. Still, moms-to-be should not be too concerned, cautions Roberto Romero, chief of the Perinatology Research Branch of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, who was not involved with the research. For one thing, more studies are needed to confirm the findings. Moreover, these moms experienced highly traumatic events. "There's no evidence of a deleterious effect when pregnant women face the regular modern-life stressors of having 200 E-mails in their inbox," he says.

A chemical cascade. How does stress cause so much physical harm? In adults, at least, experts know that one route is its direct effect on the cardiovascular system. Lab studies confirm that blood pressure and heart rates rise in response to a stressor. Incidents of heart attacks also increase. After the big central California earthquake of 1983, heart attacks killed more people than the quake itself, says Noel Bairey Merz, director of the Cedars-Sinai Barbra Streisand Women's Heart Center in Los Angeles, who notes that victims likely already had some level of heart disease. Another mechanism: the poor habits people readily adopt during periods of prolonged tension. "People who are under stress are more likely to gain weight and to smoke, and are less likely to sleep well or exercise," which can lead to cardiovascular and other diseases, Bairey Merz says.

Researchers also blame stress's ability to impede the delicate dance of chemicals that keep the body functioning smoothly. Recent studies especially implicate chemicals involved in fat storage, the immune system, and the longevity of cells themselves. Among the most important findings for long-term health:

•Telomerase. Perhaps the most intriguing discovery focuses on this enzyme, which is so important to cell health that the researchers who discovered it were awarded the Nobel Prize in 2009. Likened to plastic shoelace tips, telomeres are caps on the ends of chromosomes that shorten each time a cell divides; when they become very small, the cell dies. An enzyme called telomerase adds some length back to the telomeres. Levels of telomerase seem to be enhanced by stress reduction techniques like yoga and meditation, while high levels of stress have been linked to premature telomere contraction. (This was the measure of cell aging used in the studies of stress in childhood and in utero.) In a landmark 2004 study by Elissa Epel and colleagues at the University of California–San Francisco, for example, women who felt the most stressed while caring for a chronically ill child had telomere lengths indicating their cells were 10 years older than those of the least stressed mothers. Shorter lengths predict a variety of the diseases of aging, from arthritis and diabetes to neurodegenerative diseases like dementia, says Epel, an associate professor of psychiatry.

•Cortisol. Scientists continue to uncover the myriad ways this key stress hormone damages the body. Chronically high levels are now known to trigger insulin resistance, a precursor to diabetes. Spiegel, who regularly works with cancer patients, says cortisol is thought to be involved in that disease as well by interfering with expression of tumor suppressor genes. "By inhibiting suppression of certain cancer-related genes, there is some evidence that abnormal cortisol can increase the rate of cancer progression," he says. Excess cortisol also affects the heart, and at least one study links it to premature death. When Dutch researchers followed more than 800 people 65 and older for six years, they found that those with the highest cortisol levels at the start of the study were five times as likely to die of cardiovascular disease in the subsequent years as those with the lowest levels, they reported in 2010. This was true even in people with no signs of heart trouble when the study began.

•Neuropeptide Y (NPY). A decade ago, UCSF researcher Epel made headlines when her lab discovered that chronic stress causes people to pack on dangerous deep belly or "visceral" fat, the kind linked to cardiovascular and other diseases. Since then, other researchers have identified NPY, a neurotransmitter in the brain and body that regulates energy use, as the prime culprit. Under stress, NPY sends messages to the abdomen to both store fat there and recruit other cells to transform themselves into fat. This makes sense from an evolutionary standpoint, Epel says, because substances in belly fat are more easily converted to the energy needed to outrun a predator than those in the fat stored around the thighs and buttocks. This effect often combines with the desire to seek out the dense calories of comfort food when unnerved, another adaptive stress response (this one to famine). It also at least partly explains society's expanding waistlines, Epel says.

•Inflammatory molecules. Bouts of stress also trigger proteins like cytokines that activate an inflammatory response in the body. "We think that happens to protect the body from injury that might occur while it is fighting or fleeing," explains Philip Gold, a senior investigator at the National Institute of Mental Health, who codirected the Washington conference. Short-term inflammation is actually a good thing, since it prevents infection and, by increasing blood flow and releasing numerous compounds, starts the healing process. But over a prolonged period, too much inflammation is believed to play a role in promoting a host of medical conditions, including heart disease.

What you can do. Psychologists use the term "resilience" to describe how quickly people tend to recover from emotional setbacks, whether getting cut off in traffic or losing a job. The more resilient you are, the more you can limit the impact of stress on your health. Genetics play only a small role, says Richard Davidson, founder and chair of the Center for Investigating Healthy Minds at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. In fact, research spanning decades at Davidson's and other labs confirms that anyone can become more resilient with practice.

To help his own patients, Stanford's Spiegel coined an acronym, FACE. In short: Face or acknowledge stressors rather than running away from them; Alter perceptions to view these challenges in a more positive way, such as through cognitive therapy, hypnosis, or mindfulness training; Cope actively, by proactively heading off future stressors when possible; and Express your emotions rather than holding them in. "People under stress often view emotion as the enemy, but expressing it appropriately is important," Spiegel says. For example, you don't want to tell your boss he's a jerk, but you can say, "I felt negated when you said that at the meeting. " Or sound off instead to your partner, a friend, support group, or therapist.

Finally, help your body function at its optimum level: Eat regular, balanced meals; aim for the recommended daily seven to nine hours of sleep for adults; and, especially, exercise 30 minutes each day. Even gentle walking is sufficient to boost mood and lower stress, according to the NIMH. More vigorous exercise may provide additional protection. A 2010 study by Epel's lab found that those all-important telomeres were longer in highly stressed postmenopausal women who met the exercise goals outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which includes at least 150 minutes of brisk walking each week, plus two days of strength training. Sue Wasserman keeps her anxiety in check with daily treks along local hiking trails. "I may get stressed about an incoming check being late," she says, but as she starts moving, her worries and tension seem to ebb away.”

- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

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Affect Our Susceptibility to Burnout and Disease”

"Ever Have One Of Those Days?"

"How It Really Will Be"

"America’s Nightmare Winter Gets More Nightmarish"

"America’s Nightmare Winter Gets More Nightmarish"

by Bill Bonner

“Well, my dear Pangloss,” Candide said to them, “when you were hanged, dissected, whipped, and tugging at the oar, did you continue to think that everything in this world happens for the best?”

– "Candide" by Voltaire

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "You’ll recall that on Thursday last week, we began by wondering: What if, instead of being too negative in our outlook, we were too positive… too pollyannish and Panglossian? Shouldn’t we explore the possibility? And so, we’ve been looking at the dark side. Today, we continue our history of America’s Frigid Nightmare.

But first, an interruption with the latest news. The “jobs report” on Friday was pathetic. Here’s CNBC: "The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, in a sign that hiring started to slow even ahead of the new Covid threat, the Labor Department reported Friday." The real story is much worse. If you look at hours worked – the real measure of how much laboring is going on – you see that it has been increasing at the average annual rate of 0.3% for the last 14 years. That’s slower than population growth over the same period, which was roughly 0.8% per year, on average. In other words, the real economy has not been growing at all. Nor have real jobs. Where does this lead? That’s what we’re looking at in our “history” of the crisis ahead.

Fragile System: It began when the electrical grid collapsed. On paper, there was enough capacity to keep the juice flowing. But in practice, a centrally controlled mixture of highly manipulated solar, wind, and other “renewable” energy sources was more fragile than it looked.

Without honest price signals to guide them (everything was either subsidized or penalized)… and with inflation moving fast to confuse them… investors put little new money into the energy sector. And what was invested – incentivized by the government – was put into projects that were politically attractive, but often not very productive.

Then, push came to shove. A very cold winter. Cloudy skies. And no wind. The nation’s energy grid – or most of it – simply collapsed.

Systems Down: Homeowners had been pressured into switching to all-electric heat. It was “greener,” they were told. Electricity prices were controlled to help the “Great Transition.” Internal combustion engines were banned. Drilling for oil was curtailed.

And then… when the power went off… what could people do? Some huddled around open fires. Others took refuge in schools and public buildings. But they, too, soon grew cold. Back-up generators ran night and day. But they ran out of fuel. And with no electricity, the pumps wouldn’t work. Nor could their new electric cars be charged.

Practically all the nation’s output and delivery systems depended on software. Software ran on computers. Computers ran on electricity. And electricity now depended on the sun… and the wind… backed up by a woefully inadequate supply of energy from traditional sources. And until the grid lit up again, almost nothing moved.

From coast to coast, hungry mobs looted darkened stores. But it was not sneakers or big screen TVs they carried off; it was food. The mobs included people on Social Security as well as young hoodlums. And with electronically controlled inventory systems “offline,” and trucks sitting idle, the shelves were quickly cleared… and not restocked.

Cold and Miserable: Out in the country, it was better at first. Cows were slaughtered in the field. Locals drew on their farm tanks for emergency heating fuel. Many people still had wood-burning stoves. And they had guns. They used them to drive off refugees from the suburbs.

But even in the country, farms were no longer self-sufficient. Few had chickens in the yard or pigs in the sty. Instead, they grew cash crops, such as wheat or soybeans. And like their cousins in the suburbs, they relied on just-in-time deliveries at their local food stores, rather than just-in-case food at home.

And then, all over the country, pipes burst… toilets cracked open… pets went missing… basements flooded… and ceilings were ruined. People were hungry… cold… and miserable.

Gut Punch: After a couple of weeks, power was restored to most of the country… and people counted up their losses. Thousands had died – mostly elderly people – from “exposure”… stress… and from hunger. “Now we can get back to normal,” said President Buttigieg. But “normal” was no longer within reach. Something else had been broken. Something more important.

A headline from The Daily Beast from Saturday, December 4, 2021 put it this way: "America Is One Gut Punch Away From Throwing in the Towel on Democracy." Now, the gut punch had been delivered. And the whole nation trembled… doubled up in fear, pain, and anger. The Nightmare Winter was about to get much worse. Stay tuned."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"The Economy is in Complete Turmoil - Nothing is Stable"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, 12/6/21:

"The Economy is in Complete Turmoil - Nothing is Stable"

"From one day to the next we continue to get bad economic news about the economy. We are supposed to go about our days without a care for any of this. As the problems mount people act like it’s no big deal. It’s all getting worse."