Gregory Mannarino,
"#TheREALSteal PLUS! Useful Idiots, The Markets, Bitcoin, The Fed"
So, we rise from the rubble...
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
"Future Imperfect"
"Future Imperfect"
By Bill Bonner
WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – "Yes, Dear Reader, 2021 is going to be a doozy. America’s money supply (M1) rose 70% last year. And it looks like the combination of the increasing supply of money and the anticipation of the damage to be done by a Democrat-controlled government might have finally turned the bond market around.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the I-beam of the entire capital structure – has gone up 20% in the last week. It’s still preposterously low – at 1.17%. (But remember, the real yield is adjusted for inflation. So if the nominal yield is 3%, and inflation is at 2%, the real yield is just 1%. Inflation is currently 1.81%. So the current real yield on the 10-year bond is -0.64%.) And it’s still too early to know if the downward trend in yields has come to an end.
But just to be clear about it, rising yields in an economy with $80 trillion of debt is a sign of impending doom. It becomes ever more expensive to finance and refinance the debt… requiring more and more infusions of fake money. The locomotive goes faster and faster… until it flies off the tracks.
Democrats in Control: And now, Democrats control both houses of Congress and the White House. Since the time of FDR, Democrats have always tried to get the government to do more – more welfare, more laws, more spending, more debt, and more regulation. They recognize that the more they spend, the more powerful they become. They regulate they control; they subsidize this and bail out that. And then, even the rich and powerful are forced to come before them on their knees – bearing campaign contributions, speaking fees, and sinecures – and beg them for help.
Of course, Republicans know the game, too. When they’re in power, they are insufferable… even bigger spenders than the Democrats (perhaps because there is no longer anyone holding them back). But when they are out of power, they become more philosophical and poetic. You will soon hear them fret that the Democrats are spending like drunken sailors… and the nation’s finances are going to Hell in a handcart.
Unfortunately, the Republican Party is now so powerless, and so brainless… it cannot act as much of a brake on the runaway Democratic train. Does this, too, signal a major change of direction? Again, we don’t know. But we will offer you a little reflection on the value of real conservatives.
Give and Take: Every society needs its forward-thinkers… and its foot draggers. Some people want to bring the Trojan Horse within the city walls. Others think it might be a trick. A society needs both. It needs those who want progress and are sure the greenest pasture is just around the corner. But it also needs people who hold onto their old Studebakers (Why not? They run great.) and think America’s last great president was Jefferson Davis.
It is the polite give and take… between new and old… looking ahead but with respect for the past… that makes a healthy, balanced community. The forward-looking world improvers always think they have solutions (mostly to the problems caused by their last solutions). True conservatives listen carefully. At first, they are uncertain. But then, after hearing the argument, they are not so sure.
Richer and Better: Many intelligent people, for example, are convinced that new technology will make our lives richer and better. The technophiles go on and on about how this or that breakthrough will “change our lives.” And yet, we eat the same food, more or less. We live in the same houses. We exchange lovesick glances… and howl at the moon, occasionally, just as we did when we still walked on all fours.
It’s been more than 20 years since the great internet-led tech breakthrough. The “dot-com revolution” was, of course, supposed to make us all richer and happier. But we can’t think of a single person who – thanks to the wonders of Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, or the worldwide web itself – was made happier by the digital advance (though many were made richer… including your editor).
Tesla founder Elon Musk recently became the richest man on the planet. (Yesterday, he fell to #2… the poor sap.) His shares in Tesla are valued at nearly $195 billion (the company is worth about as much as the GDP of Turkey). And what does Tesla do? It produces electric cars. But battery-powered cars are not new. The first one was driven through the streets of Paris by Gustave Trouvé in 1881. Now, 140 years later, everyone is sure that cars and trucks powered by internal combustion engines will soon go the way of lightbulbs powered by hamster wheels.
Then, too, people who know a lot more than we do insist that bitcoin is a superior form of money. It will soon make the other forms – including gold itself – as obsolete as the gas-powered auto, they say. Is that so?
As for face masks… keeping the grandchildren at a six-foot distance… and taking the vaccine as soon as it is available to us… is it only the QAnon people who doubt it?
Done Deal: And who doesn’t know that more “stimulus” will help jump-start the economy? “We should be investing in deficit spending in order to generate economic growth,” says Joe Biden. Borrowing money can help you create a profitable new business. But what are the odds that government boondoggles – carefully dressed by lobbyists and masquerading as capital investment – will yield a positive rate of return?
And what’s ahead for the stock market? Every thirty-something RobinHoodie is absolutely convinced that the Dow is headed for 50,000… thanks to tech breakthroughs and the feds’ support. They’ve priced stocks today as if the future were a done deal… as if Tesla had sold a car – at a profit – to everyone on the planet with a driver’s license.
Worth Listening To: And now, in the latest step towards a glorious future, the owners of America’s most important communication channels – Facebook, Twitter, et al. – have decided to exclude the president of the United States. For all his obvious faults and failings, Donald Trump nevertheless speaks for a sizable portion of the U.S. population. Will the silencing of the Trumpistas by a few Silicon Valley billionaires really lead to peace, harmony, and prosperity? And what other “bad” ideas should be censored?
We bring this up just to remind readers that, sometimes, people you don’t want to listen to – the Cassandras in the story of the Trojan Horse – are worth hearing out. Sometimes, there really are Greeks hiding in the Trojan’s horse. Sometimes, the wonders of the future – like the flying cars we imagined in 1960 – never show up. Stock markets go down as well as up… all paper money eventually goes back to its intrinsic value (zero)… and all empires decline, sooner or later. And sometimes, you need the old-school, grumpy-pants conservatives to remind you. We suspect that this is one of those times."
The Poet: Derek Mahon, "Everything Is Going to Be All Right"
"Everything Is Going to Be All Right"
"How should I not be glad to contemplate
the clouds clearing beyond the dormer window
and a high tide reflected on the ceiling?
There will be dying, there will be dying,
but there is no need to go into that.
The poems flow from the hand unbidden
and the hidden source is the watchful heart.
The sun rises in spite of everything
and the far cities are beautiful and bright.
I lie here in a riot of sunlight
watching the day break and the clouds flying.
Everything is going to be all right."
~ Derek Mahon,
"Collected Poems"
"Without Freedom Of Speech, What Is Going To Happen To America?"
"Without Freedom Of Speech,
What Is Going To Happen To America?"
by Michael Snyder
"It is quite ironic that many of those that are always telling us that we need “diversity” in our society are also some of the strongest voices against a “diversity of viewpoints” on social media. The founders of this nation wanted to make sure that nobody would ever take the right to freedom of speech away from us, and that is why it was enshrined in the Bill of Rights. Unfortunately, courts have greatly eroded that right over the last several decades, and now we are facing an all-out assault on freedom of speech that is unlike anything that we have ever seen before. And once freedom of speech is completely gone, all of our other rights will soon follow, because there will no longer be any way to defend them.
When the United States was established, government was really the only major threat to free speech. In early America, corporations were severely limited in size and scope, and that is because our founders were determined not to let them get too big or too powerful. Our founders knew that enormous concentrations of money and power would be great threats to freedom, and that has definitely turned out to be the case.
In the old days, if you wanted to express yourself you could grab a soapbox and head down to a local street corner. The reason why we use the term “marketplace of ideas” today is because people literally used to gather in marketplaces and town squares and exchange ideas with one another.
In our time, the Internet has become the place where we all gather to exchange ideas, but unfortunately control of all of the most important gathering spaces is in the hands of a very small group of colossal tech corporations. When Facebook, Twitter and others were first growing, they generally allowed people to say pretty much what they wanted to say, and information flowed pretty freely. But censorship has escalated dramatically over the past four years, and it reached a crescendo the other day when Twitter announced that it would be permanently suspending President Trump’s account.
How would our founders feel about that? Tech giants such as Facebook and Twitter now have more money than many entire countries do, and in many ways they also have the same level of power that many national governments possess. Just think about this – President Trump could never take away your ability to express yourself, but Facebook and Twitter can.
Of course big corporations dominate just about every other aspect of our society as well. These collectivist institutions have become extremely dangerous, and they are really starting to throw their weight around. Until the power of the big corporations is addressed, we will never have a truly free society again. Just like leftist governments, big corporations seek to gather as much money and as much power under a single umbrella as possible.
Our founders wanted to empower the individual, and that is why they wanted to limit the size of government and that is why they also wanted to limit the size of corporations.
Sadly, it wasn’t just President Trump that got booted off Twitter in recent days. Hordes of conservative accounts have been wiped out, and this has led many to use the word “purge” to describe what has been happening. On my Twitter account, I have literally lost more than a thousand followers in just a few days. Others have lost a lot more.
Many conservatives have been fleeing to Parler, but over the past several days the big tech giants teamed up to take that entire platform down… "Parler will likely go offline for “a while” Sunday evening given Amazon Web Services’ decision to suspend the upstart social media platform after Wednesday’s U.S. Capitol riot, executives said Sunday. “We are clearly being singled out,” Chief Policy Officer Amy Peikoff told “Fox & Friends Weekend” one day after Apple suspended Parler from its App Store even as it surged to the No. 1 spot in the free apps section earlier in the day."
I was absolutely stunned when I heard that had happened. These people are not playing games. For the moment, Gab.com is still up, and their traffic has surged more than 750 percent in just the last few days… "Gab.com, the free speech friendly social network, says traffic has increased by more than 750 percent in the past few days, following the blacklisting of President Donald Trump from most mainstream tech platforms. “Our traffic is up 753% in the past 24 hours. Tens of millions of visits,” said Gab in response to a question about slow loading speeds."
But how long will it be before Gab is taken down as well? The big tech companies don’t want diversity, they don’t want competition and they don’t want dissent. What they want is complete and total domination. Cancel culture is not good for our society. If everyone with viewpoints that are not “politically correct” is eventually “canceled” we will have a society that looks a whole lot like communist China. And I suppose that is precisely what a lot of people out there truly want.
It is not always easy to listen to viewpoints that you consider to be offensive. Personally, I do not like most of what my fellow citizens are saying in 2021. But in the United States we are not supposed to silence opposing viewpoints that we do not like. Instead, we are supposed to strive for victory in the marketplace of ideas by showing that our viewpoints are better.
Unfortunately, the big tech companies have decided that millions of Americans should no longer be allowed to participate in the marketplace of ideas because their viewpoints are just too offensive. Ironically, many of those that are doing the censoring have the most offensive and the most dangerous viewpoints of all.
Needless to say, if we stay on the path that we are currently on there is no future for America. Without free speech, the system of government that our founders established simply won’t work. What is the point of even having elections if we can only express one point of view?
In China, no dissent is allowed and one political party runs everything on a permanent basis. America appears to be heading in the same direction, and there are millions of people in this country that are actually quite thrilled that this is happening."
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"Only Barbarians..."
“Only barbarians are not curious about where they come from,
how they came to be where they are, where they appear to be going,
whether they wish to go there, and if so, why, and if not, why not.”
- Isaiah Berlin
"Economic Market Snapshot PM 1/12/21"
"Economic Market Snapshot PM 1/12/21"
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"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
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"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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Gregory Mannarino, AM 1/12/21:
"Important Updates:
Market, Bitcoin, Crypto, Stocks, Plus a WARNING"
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates
CNN Market Data:
CNN Fear And Greed Index:
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A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Daily Updates, Jan 11th to 13th
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Daily Job Cuts
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And now, the End Game...
"The Worst Part..."
"People cry not because they're weak.
It's because they've been strong too long."
~ Johnny Depp
"For Many Great Deeds..."
"For many great deeds are accomplished in times of squalid struggle. There is a kind of stubborn, unrecognized courage which in the lowest depths tenaciously resists the pressures of necessity and ill-doing; there are noble and obscure triumphs observed by no one, unacclaimed by any fanfare. Hardship, loneliness, and penury are a battlefield which has its own heroes, sometimes greater than those lauded in history. Strong and rare characters are thus created; poverty nearly always a foster-mother, may become a true mother, distress may be the nursemaid of pride, and misfortune the milk that nourishes great spirits."
- Victor Hugo
Musical Interlude: Peder B. Helland, "Dance of Life"
Peder B. Helland, "Dance of Life"
Fantasy music for relaxation and meditation.
Absolutely beautiful!
Be kind to yourself, relax, and savor this at full screen!
Monday, January 11, 2021
"A Stock Market Crash Of 80% This Year?"
"A Stock Market Crash Of 80% This Year?"
by Epic Economist
"The entire U.S. economy is crumbling, but stock markets are still recording a frenetic bull run led by investors' euphoria surrounding tech stocks. However, massively overvalued tech stock prices are forming a bubble much like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, and we all know how things ended up back then. Several experts are alerting to the unsustainability of the markets, especially since these extraordinary prices are backed on delusional projections for the upcoming performance of our struggling economy. A stock market crash is looming, and strategists say stocks might be headed to a crash of crash of 65-80% by the end of this year, a collapse just as sharp as the previous housing bubble burst. That's what we're going to investigate in this video.
In all of our history stock prices have never been so disassociated from our economy. The year just started and the Russell 2000 index already went up over 6%. The only other year it rose more than 6% only at the beginning of January was in 1987. Then, it skyrocketed an additional 23%, and it crashed a little later in the year. We could easily witness a massive crash in 2021. However, it's even more likely that we wee this happen in the Nasdaq 100 than the small cap index due to high large cap growth valuations.
The Oxford Economics recovery tracker index has taken a turn for the worse in the past few weeks with the Pacific registering the lowest performance. The stimulus money for unemployment benefits is expected to last for 11 weeks, but roughly 12 million Americans are still out of their jobs and it's highly unlikely all of them will find work by the end of this period. Therefore, another stimulus bill will be necessary to assist these people again, that is to say, soon enough more artificial money will be launched into the system.
Meanwhile, completely disregarding what is coming next for the economy, the Nasdaq 100 is being flooded by investor euphoria, particularly on the large cap growth segment of tech stocks. But the names that are mentioned the most are from money losing tech firms. That's why the strategists affirm that now is possibly one of the worst times ever to be searching for the next great tech stock. There's over $1 trillion worth of tech stocks with negative earnings.
But investors seem to keep ignoring the real data and falling into the mainstream media trap of an untouchable market led by a fresh set of hot stocks. A burning news everyone seems to be talking about is the fact that Elon Musk became the richest man in the world, surpassing Jeff Bezos of Amazon. But what many fail to understand is that usually, when these types of landmarks happen, it’s a sign that speculation in the markets has gone way too far.
Another landmark was that Tesla stocks went almost vertical and its market cap surpassed Facebook’s, which made Tesla the 5th largest company in the United States. During the peak of the 1990s dot-com bubble, in March 2000, Cisco had a market cap of $569 billion. Adjusting this figure according to the current inflation, Cisco’s market cap peak in today’s dollars would be approximately $864.9 billion. This indicates that at $836.5 billion, Tesla is closing in on Cisco’s peak.
These are very similar bubbles, and keeping in mind that the health crisis doesn't have a clear end in sight, and as long as the economy remains impaired more stimulus relief will be issued to boost it, this time around, the bubble can get even larger, which means the crash would be much deeper. Worried about a downfall with similar proportions to the previous housing bubble burst, Michael Burry, the investor whose billion-dollar bet against the US housing market was immortalized in Michael Lewis' book "The Big Short," is warning that Tesla stocks might crash in the same fashion. "Well, my last Big Short got bigger and bigger and BIGGER too," Burry tweeted last Thursday.
Likewise, macro strategist David Hunter is predicting a massive melt-up in financial assets. Hunter's perception is remarkably aggressive, he forecasts that a 65-80% crash in prices may happen by the end of the year. However extreme it may seem, historic patterns and current evidences seem to be on his side.
Every time excessive debt has enabled market assets to distort to unsustainably excessive heights, a dramatic correction to clear out the bad debt and malinvestment has always occurred. In short, we are moving towards the most dramatic correction ever recorded. And when this stock market bubble finally bursts, it will be catastrophic."“Something Evil This Way Comes; You Can Run But You Won’t Hide; This Ends Badly; Wealth Destruction”
Jeremiah Babe,
“Something Evil This Way Comes; You Can Run But You Won’t Hide;
This Ends Badly; Wealth Destruction”
"What Leftists Think About Free Speech"
JP Sears,
"What Leftists Think About Free Speech"
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"The Social Reward for Being Afraid is High.
But Bravery Please!"
by JP Sears
"WOW! When the world is on fire, what do you do? Probably start with staying out of the fire. (Great obvious advice, isn't it?) I don't know about you, but the past few days I've felt every emotion there is to feel. I think my body even invented some new ones and felt those.
What has my being engaged the most is the unprecedented assault on free speech being carried out by big tech. In my humble opinion, contrary to what the rage mob says and how the media spins it, I believe free speech is not a political issue. It is a human issue.
I freaking love humanity. I love hearing what people have to say. When I don't like what people have to say, I still love that they have the right to say it. And I also love that I have the right to turn the other way and stop listening without silencing them by taking away their rights.
Here's something you might not know about me. I don't align with any particular political party. And my only hard fast political view is this: Freedom is good. (And the Earth is awesome.) The past 10 months my comedy has largely morphed into a mission of upholding freedom. I'm deeply humbled to say I've never received so much support, love, and appreciation from around the world.
And something else you might not know, but probably won't surprise you, is I've never been attacked more. Angry comments online don't phase me in the slightest. Yet things have been taken further.
My family and I have received death threats.
Sponsors have dropped me (on private phone calls they share that they love the messaging, yet don't wanna deal with the rage mobs attacking them because they're associated with me).
There are organized rage mobs actively trying to get the rest of my sponsors to drop me.
Facebook has demonetized me.
I'm still monetized on YouTube, yet you never know when the next upload could get me demonetized or deplatformed.
But with all these symptoms of people being in an angry state of mind (because they're ultimately scared inside), here is my commitment to you. I WILL NOT STOP serving the mission of upholding freedom. Because I think you and I and our children deserve to live in a world where we can have free speech and all other God given freedoms.
Each day I'm putting everything on the line. I'm putting the living I make for my family on the line, simply because it's worth it. I would much rather risk losing everything while serving truth and freedom and have to figure out how to feed my family by picking up cans on the side of the highway than to bow down out of fear and silence myself in order to keep what I've achieved.
I'm not willing to live in the poverty of fear. I'm only willing to live in the riches of bravery. While I'm not perfect, I do my best to be brave every single day during a time when there's never been more social "reward" for succumbing to fear. And I'm guessing bravery speaks to you more than fear does or else you wouldn't be here as an Awakened Warrior insider.
So I deeply want to thank you for standing with me and for something that's greater than all of us put together. Freedom. Alright my Awakened Warrior friend! You'll be hearing from me soon. In the mean time, just know I really appreciate you being connected with me and standing with me. And I hope you do something to make yourself laugh today!"
"Stay weird,"
JP
Podcast: On my latest podcast episode my guest Elliott Hulse and I discuss How to Outsmart the Communist Takeover. If you love communism, don't listen to this episode. Otherwise, you can listen here:
Musical Interlude: Ludovico Einaudi, "Lady Labyrinth & Nightbook"
Ludovico Einaudi, "Lady Labyrinth & Nightbook"
"A Look to the Heavens"
"NGC 253 is one of the brightest spiral galaxies visible, but also one of the dustiest. Dubbed the Silver Coin for its appearance in smalltelescopes, it is more formally known as the Sculptor Galaxy for its location within the boundaries of the southern constellation Sculptor. Discovered in 1783 by mathematician and astronomer Caroline Herschel, the dusty island universe lies a mere 10 million light-years away.
About 70 thousand light-years across, NGC 253, pictured, is the largest member of the Sculptor Group of Galaxies, the nearest to our own Local Group of galaxies. In addition to its spiral dust lanes, tendrils of dust seem to be rising from a galactic disk laced with young star clusters and star forming regions in this sharp color image. The high dust content accompanies frantic star formation, earning NGC 253 the designation of a starburst galaxy. NGC 253 is also known to be a strong source of high-energy x-rays and gamma rays, likely due to massive black holes near the galaxy's center. Take a trip through extragalactic space in this short video flyby of NGC 253."
"They’re Coming After Trump"
"They’re Coming After Trump"
by Jim Rickards
"The House of Representatives introduced an impeachment article against President Trump today, charging him with “incitement of insurrection” after crowds stormed the Capitol last Wednesday following his speech. If it goes forward, Trump would be the only president in history to be impeached twice.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is giving Vice President Mike Pence 24 hours to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump. If he doesn’t, the House is expected to vote on the impeachment resolution later this week, possibly as soon as Wednesday.
Should the House vote to impeach, the resolution would go to the Senate. A two-thirds Senate majority would be required to convict and remove Trump from office. That would require the support of many Republican senators. But the Senate is currently in recess, and current Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he won’t call the Senate back into session until January 19 - just one day before Trump leaves office.
So Trump would be out of office by the time a Senate trial could take place. Besides, the Constitution only refers to impeaching “the president” - not a former president, which Trump would be. But, Trump would be impeached while still president if it happens before January 20. The trial in the Senate and punishment would take place later, but scholars agree this is probably constitutional. This procedure has been used before for Federal judges, so there is precedent.
What is the point of impeaching a former president? Removal from office is irrelevant after January 20. But one of the punishments allowed is prevention from ever holding office again. That's what the Democrats want. Their goal is to stop Trump from running again in 2024. Around 75 million Americans voted for Trump in November (potentially more, depending on the level of election fraud). With those kinds of numbers, it’s easy to see why Democrats wouldn’t want Trump to be able to run in 2024. Neither does the Republican Party establishment, incidentally, which never wanted to nominate Trump in the first place."
JAN 11, AT 11:02 AM: "FBI Warns Of "Armed Protests" Across Nation As 15,000 National Guard Deployed To Capitol"
JAN 11, AT 10:35 AM: "House Dems Introduce Article Of Impeachment Against Trump, Have The Necessary Votes"
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There's little time, and no other logical options...
Trump must invoke the Insurrection Act.
10 U.S.C. § 334.4.
(§252) says: "Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States in any State by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion."
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It's All Over...
Jan.11 - "Donald Trump and Mike Pence agreed in a meeting Monday to work together for the remainder of their term, according to a senior administration official. This signals the president won’t resign or face removal by his cabinet after last week’s riot at the U.S. Capitol. Emily Wilkins reports on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."
"It Shouldn't Be A Bragging Point..."
"It shouldn't be a bragging point that "Oh, I don't get
involved in politics," as if that makes you somehow cleaner.
No, that makes you derelict of duty in a republic."
- Bill Maher
"The price good men pay for indifference
to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men. "
- Aristotle
"One of the Greatest Economic Blunders in History"
"One of the Greatest Economic Blunders in History"
By Jim Rickards
"The U.S. economy lost 140,000 jobs in December. Only about 55% of the jobs lost in March and April have returned. That’s a significant number. Americans and others around the world who make their living as bus drivers, bartenders, waiters, hair stylists and boutique store clerks, among thousands of other jobs, make up 50% of all jobs and 45% of U.S. gross domestic product. This is the part of the economy affected by the lockdowns. They are being destroyed.
When the pandemic passes, and we are able to look back on the experience without fear or political bias, it will be clear that the lockdowns were one of the greatest economic blunders in history. Lockdowns do not stop the spread of the virus, but they do destroy the economy. This is not merely a matter of opinion or conjecture.
The pandemic has now lasted long enough that we have solid comparative data from all 50 U.S. states and many countries around the world. This data covers states and countries that tried extreme lockdowns, moderate lockdowns or completely voluntary methods that involved no mandatory lockdown at all. The empirical results show that the experience of all of these jurisdictions was about the same and that lockdowns have not “contributed in any meaningful way” to saving lives. In fact, there is other evidence that shows lockdowns killed more people than they saved due to suicides, drug abuse, alcohol abuse, domestic violence and depression.
This study on the ineffectiveness of lockdowns was produced by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University, and his collaborators. One TV anchor who interviewed Dr. Bhattacharya said, “California has the strictest lockdowns in the country and cases there are absolutely exploding. What am I supposed to take from the usefulness of lockdowns?” The fact is that lockdowns do not stop the spread of the virus, but they are very good at destroying the economy. I covered this all in my new book, "The New Great Depression."
People are social beings and do not like lockdowns. No matter what the rules are, people will find their way around them. And, with or without strict compliance, the virus goes where it wants. I’ve been to the White House on official business numerous times. It’s hard to think of a more locked-down place. It has multiple security perimeters, multiple entrances before one can reach the Oval Office, and numerous security guards. Still, the President and First Lady contracted the COVID-19 virus last October, most likely in the White House itself. As I said, the virus goes where it wants. If lockdowns don’t work, why do public health officials and government officials keep insisting on them? There are two reasons.
The first is that academic epidemiologists are just as out of touch with everyday Americans as any other elite group. They sit in their labs and ivory tower offices and have had no difficulty working from home and avoiding routine exposure that other Americans face. They have not lost their jobs or seen their businesses destroyed. It’s easy to order a lockdown when you’re not the one whose job or business is ruined. The other reason is that politicians have to be seen doing something, even if they don’t know what they’re doing.
Everyone agrees that washing hands, social distancing and masks in crowded venues make sense. But, that’s not enough for the politicians. They want to appear to be “saving the population” even if they’re just destroying the economy.
If you think the lockdowns have been an economic disaster (I do), then get ready for something worse... Two of the top public health advisors in the new Biden administration are Ezekiel Emanuel of the Center for American Progress and Michael Osterholm of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Both Emmanuel and Osterholm have long histories of calling for lockdowns during pandemics. In June Ezekiel said, “You have to actually have people at home, close nonessential businesses, stop bars, stop indoor dining, have everyone wearing face masks. These are the things we need to do. ... You need to do it nationwide.”
The evidence is clear that lockdowns don’t work. Biden’s health advisors are calling for them anyway. Only an out of touch elite could support shutting down the economy and not realize you would destroy that economy and the jobs that go with it.
Meanwhile, the pandemic is giving the government justification to clamp down on civil liberties. For example, Dr. Fauci is now promoting the idea that certain institutions may require individuals to get one of the new vaccines at the state level (though he isn’t sure the federal government will mandate vaccination).
Here’s how it could work: When you get the vaccine, you will receive some kind of certification that could be a QR code on your mobile phone or registration in a central government controlled database. If you want to fly, rent a car, send your children to school or do other everyday activities, you will be required to produce your vaccine registration credentials. This method is similar to the “social credit” system used in Communist China to enforce compliance with Communist Party definitions of good behavior. Fauci also envisions “COVID-19 passports” that would be required before certain types of travel were allowed.
What Fauci does not mention is that the vaccines are still experimental. They have been approved by the FDA, but this was done on an emergency basis and some acute allergic reactions and even deaths have been reported among those who have received the vaccines.
Also, most Americans may not realize that the COVID-19 vaccines are not traditional vaccines that introduce one mild disease in order to build antibodies to a more deadly disease. Instead, these new vaccines work through genetically modified RNA sequences. It’s not clear what the long-term effects of such genetic modification might be. But many elites and government bureaucrats seem perfectly fine with using unsuspecting Americans as guinea pigs. Would you like to be one?
New restrictions are one more reason why a new recession is upon us and why any economic recovery will be slow and weak. Neither monetary nor fiscal policy will effectively stimulate the economy. Monetary policy is not stimulus because the new money is going to the banks and the banks simply deposit it with the Fed as excess reserves on which they receive interest. If the money is not being loaned by banks and spent by consumers, it isn’t generating economic activity.
Fiscal policy isn’t stimulus because the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is now over 130% and rising quickly. Extensive research shows that at debt-to-GDP ratios above 90%, the multiplier on new debt is less than one. This means we’re in a debt trap (in addition to a liquidity trap caused by the Fed). We cannot print our way out of a liquidity trap. We cannot spend our way out of a debt trap. The Fed and Congress may try to stimulate the economy, but they will fail. They’ll only dig the country a deeper hole to climb out of."
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