Jeremiah Babe,
“Survive The Greatest Depression; Economic Twilight Zone;
Jobless Crisis Explodes; Stimulus Talks”
So, we rise from the rubble...
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
"Retail Apocalypse Getting Worse: $15 Trillion Market Lead To Economic Collapse!"
"Retail Apocalypse Getting Worse:
$15 Trillion Market Lead To Economic Collapse!"
by Epic Economist
"The retail apocalypse proportions are getting so extensive that its downfall has been putting the commercial real state sector in big trouble. Experts have been warning that the $15 trillion market is at risk of bleeding over into the broader financial system as the U.S. struggles to come out of a deep economic collapse. The number of retail store closings has hit records this year and it's on pace to surpass the staggering bankruptcy figures seen during the Great Recession.
As the empty retail space has been continuously growing, economists alert the commercial real state business is on the verge to spark the next economic crisis. Today, we are going to examine the most recent assessments that have been pointing out to a very chaotic future both in retail and the real state industry. So stay with us, please leave a thumbs up in this video, share it with friends, and subscribe to our channel to keep updated with the next unfoldings of the 21st-Century Depression.
In the first six months of 2020, retail store closings have reached record levels, registering overwhelming rates of bankruptcy and liquidation filings as the health crisis sped up the downward trend the industry has been facing for years now. According to a recent report on the downturn's severity, the shift to online shopping and the significant reduction in consumer spending has put American retail in a more dangerous place than the one witnessed in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, when 48 retailers filed for bankruptcy.
The professional-services firm BDO USA LLP indicated in a recent analysis that this year's collapse could overtake that of 2010. Back then, the sector had the opportunity to restructure itself and fight back the deterioration suffered during the economic meltdown. At the present time, with online shopping reshaping consumer tendencies and an aggravating economic state, retail stores may have found a dead-end.
Together, hotels and retail, which have been hit the hardest, account for 40 percent of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. Although lockdowns were lifted months ago, 1 out of every 2 hotel rooms remains vacant. Urban hotels have some of the highest operating costs and have been handling the worst occupancy rates, marking less than 38 percent. On the other hand, retail has undoubtedly faced the sharpest decline. And the downfall is not only configured by small strip malls: the owner of the $1.9 billion Mall of America reached an agreement with its special servicer in August to prevent foreclosure.
Today, one-quarter of all CMBS hotel loans are in special servicing compared with 1.9 percent last year. Retail loans in special servicing are at 18.3 percent, a 5 percent increase from the end of 2019. Another aggravating factor is that there haven’t been enough commercial property transactions to measure how deep property values have actually fallen, leading buyers and sellers to have extremely differing views of what a property is worth.
The lack of clarity in this matter affects how loans are diced up and packaged into securities held by investors. A bank could provide a borrower short-term relief and revaluate the issue in a few months, while a borrower whose loan has been bundled into a security has to pass through a more elaborate process to gather various investors’ approvals to adjust payments. Special servicers have to shape future payments for the bondholders, which has become a difficult mission since it hasn't been possible to fully assess what a building is worth or whether it will bring any revenue soon.
The American Hotel and Lodging Association released a survey showing that "15 percent of borrowers whose loans had been packaged and sold to investors had received relief on their loans, compared with 80 percent of borrowers with bank-owned loans". At the end of the day, the source of funding doesn’t make much difference - ultimately, a bank will have to write down a property that doesn’t recover. And industry experts aren’t sure which properties will.
For now, what we know is that retailers are about to close 25,000 stores across the country. This means property owners will get even more distressed with the massive amount of rental insolvency. As we approach the holiday season, many retailers are counting on the revenue to pay their debts. But as Mr. Graised signaled, many of those won't hit their expected goals and will be unable to pay back the rental deferrals landlords agreed to issue. And that will create an debt immense bubble in the retail sector, possibly flagging the end of the industry as we know, The bubble will also comprise the commercial real state market, and the result of its burst may spark an unprecedented financial crisis, so there’s no rest in sight for the fragile American economy."
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Related:
"A Look to the Heavens"
"A gorgeous spiral galaxy some 100 million light-years distant, NGC 1309 lies on the banks of the constellation of the River (Eridanus). NGC 1309 spans about 30,000 light-years, making it about one third the size of our larger Milky Way galaxy. Bluish clusters of young stars and dust lanes are seen to trace out NGC 1309's spiral arms as they wind around an older yellowish star population at its core.
Not just another pretty face-on spiral galaxy, observations of NGC 1309's recent supernova and Cepheid variable stars contribute to the calibration of the expansion of the Universe. Still, after you get over this beautiful galaxy's grand design, check out the array of more distant background galaxies also recorded in this sharp, reprocessed, Hubble Space Telescope view.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130116.html
"It's Not The Load..."
"It's not the load that breaks you down, it's the way you carry it."
- Lena Horne
“Thinking About Thinking”
“Thinking About Thinking”
by Chet Raymo
“It is not easy to live in that continuous awareness of things which alone is true living," wrote the naturalist Joseph Wood Krutch. And, of course, he was right. Our brains are separated from the world by a permeable membrane. Attention flows outwards. Sense impressions flow inwards. Of this two-way traffic- this awareness- we create a soul.
At this moment, as I sit at my desk on a hillside in the west of Ireland, I try to be aware. Sunlight streams across my computer keyboard; eight minutes ago these photons were on the surface of the sun. A Pholcus phalangioides spider spins its web under the shelf above the desk; I touch the web with a pencil point and the spider does a dervish dance. Outside the window, clouds scud in from the Atlantic; there will be rain in the afternoon.
Continuous awareness: It can be exhausting. Which is why, I suppose, we sometimes wish for the mind to go blank, for the windows of the soul to close, for darkness to fall.
Fortunately, the one thing we don't have to attend to is awareness itself. The brain does its thing without the least bit of conscious control on our part. And a good thing, too; if we had to attend to what is going on in the brain when we attend to the world, we'd... We'd go nuts.
Nothing we know about in the universe approaches the complexity of the human brain. What is it? A vast spider web of neurons, cells with a thousand octopuslike arms, called dendrites. The dendrites reach out and make contact at their tips with the dendrites of other cells, at junctions called synapses. A hundred billion neurons in the human brain, with an average of 1,000 dendrites each. A hundred trillion octopus arms touching like fingertips, and each synapse exquisitely controlled by the cells themselves, strengthening or weakening the contact, building webs of interlinked cells that are knowledge, memory, consciousness- self.
A hundred billion neurons. That's more brain cells than there are grains of salt in 1,000 one-pound boxes of salt. A roomful of salt grains, floor to ceiling. Each in contact with hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of others. The contacts flickering with variable strength. Continuously. Unconsciously. Never ceasing. Remembering. Forgetting. Feeling joy. Feeling pain. Thinking. Speaking. Lifting a foot, moving it forward, putting it down again. Flickering. A hundred trillion flickering synapses. Just thinking about it is exhausting.
Neuroscientists are busy trying to figure it all out. Some folks would say that bringing the scrutiny of science to bear upon the human soul is the height of presumption. Others would say that the more we learn about what makes our brains tick, the more we stand in awe at the mystery of soul.
The sheer complexity of the human brain makes any adequate description a daunting task. Which is why some neuroscientists choose to work with simpler organisms- sea snails, for example- to get a grip on the basic structure and chemistry. In recent years, new scanning technologies enable neuroscientists to watch live human brains at work. Active neural regions flicker on the screens of computer monitors as subjects think, speak, recite poems, do math. Continuous awareness, displayed on the screen of a scanning monitor, can look like a grass fire exploding across a prairie.
Still other scientists attempt to model the brain in silicon, building electronic circuits called neural networks that mimic the activity of the brain as it creates constantly changing webs of neurons. So far, no electronic network begins to approach the complexity of the human brain, but the time is not far off when silicon brains will rival brains of flesh and blood. Just trying to make it happen teaches us a lot about how human brains work.
Perhaps the most exciting research is that of the scientists who study the biochemistry of neurons: How do the cells regulate synaptic connections to build new neural webs? One big surprise is just how much of the "thinking" of neurons is done by the dendrites, those hundreds of spidery arms that connect neurons to one another. DNA in a neuron's nucleus sends messenger RNA down along the dendrites to active synapses, where they are translated into proteins that regulate the strength of synaptic connections. Tiny protein factories in the dendrites are apparently key to learning and memory. Once the regulation of these protein factories is understood, drugs that ameliorate some kinds of hereditary mental retardation might be possible. As will drugs that help all of us to learn and remember. Are we ready for "smart" pills? Memory pills?
What all this amounts to is awareness of awareness. For the first time in the history of consciousness, the machinery of awareness has been turned upon itself. As neuroscientists have discovered, thinking about thinking is not easy. Thank goodness we don't have to think about thinking to think.”
- http://www.sciencemusings.com/
"We Must Begin..."
"We are fast moving into something, we are fast flung into something like asteroids cast into space by the death of a planet, we the people of earth are cast into space like burning asteroids and if we wish not to disintegrate into nothingness we must begin to now hold onto only the things that matter while letting go of all that doesn't. For when all of our dust and ice deteriorates into the cosmos we will be left only with ourselves and nothing else. So if you want to be there in the end, today is the day to start holding onto your children, holding onto your loved ones; onto those who share your soul. Harbor and anchor into your heart justice, truth, courage, bravery, belief, a firm vision, a steadfast and sound mind. Be the person of meaningful and valuable thoughts. Don't look to the left, don't look to the right; we simply don't have the time. Never be afraid of fear."
- C. JoyBell C.
"The Test..."
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise."
- F. Scott Fitzgerald
"Why the 2020s Will Likely Be the Most Turbulent Decade in 250 Years"
"Why the 2020s Will Likely Be the Most Turbulent Decade in 250 Years"
by International Man
"International Man: Due to COVID-19, almost every country in the world closed its borders. Over seven months later, most governments still restrict travel, economic activity, and social gatherings. You recently traveled internationally. How did it go?
Doug Casey: I’ve been stuck in the backward but pleasant and peaceful little country of Uruguay for the last seven months. The lockdown in Uruguay wasn’t nearly as severe as other countries in Latin America, but it was nonetheless impossible to come or go from the place.
I recently returned to Aspen. Bad timing, because it’s the fall and getting cold here in the mountains. I took a COPA flight, business class, from Montevideo to Miami via Panama City. American Airlines and United usually fly direct to Miami or New York. But not now. Maybe because there’s not enough traffic, international flights are down at least 80–90%. Or maybe just because they’re bankrupt.
One of the first inconveniences you notice is that they no longer have proper earphones in business class. All they give you is little earplugs, which make it hard to hear the movie over the rush of the wind and the engines; on American, only one ear channel worked as a bonus. Supposedly a sanitary measure to fight COVID-19.
All the airlines have now ceased serving hot meals. On both airlines in business class, all you got was a little lunchbox with cold cuts and a bit of fruit. There are no longer any pillows or blankets available, either, due to contagion fears during the COVID-19 hysteria.
On my American flight from Dallas to Aspen, the stewardess did a good imitation of Ilsa, She-Wolf of the SS. She noticed that though I was wearing my mask - which, of course, is required at all times on the plane and in airports - but it only covered my mouth, not my nose. I was reprimanded. But when she delivered apple juice, I was allowed to take my mask off entirely for the full hour it took me to sip the glass of juice. Further proof that the rules around the Great Hysteria are mostly annoying theater and laughably ridiculous.
Aspen itself would normally be dead as a doornail in mid-October. But not now. It’s overrun by obnoxious rich people from cities, mainly New York, LA, and Miami. They’ve apparently decided to leave their first homes, perhaps because Aspen doesn’t have Antifa and Black Lives Matter - which I believe most of them support. Practically every property for sale -especially in downtown - gets an immediate bid. Real estate brokers are coining money.
Aspen should be renamed the People’s Republic of Aspen because that’s what it is. It’s always been an extreme left-wing town, of course. But the immense wealth brought in by the billionaires who are driving the multimillionaires down valley made it, nonetheless, an appealing place to live. And a continual bull market for property.
But now, if you go anywhere in the core of this town, you’ll find they’re rabid about wearing your mask when you’re out walking in the sun and fresh air. Even hiking or riding your bike without a muzzle will draw shaming from leftist hysterics. All the restaurants are jam-packed, with distanced tables. If you walk into a restaurant without a reservation, you’ll likely wait an hour for seating. Almost all the shops are open and doing great business with the people who have inundated the place. The hotels are jammed, at full rack rates, and you can’t easily rent an apartment.
It’s a fact that people are leaving the cities. And, I understand that it’s like this in all kinds of nice small towns across the country. They’re likely to sell their old homes and stay here. They’re the type of people who can work electronically in the world of the Internet and Zoom.
I dislike being in Aspen now under these circumstances. In fact, I’m going to sell the ranch, which is 20 minutes out of town. When the ducks are quacking, you should feed them. This town is nothing like it once was - the land of soft snow, hard drugs, and casual sex - when I first came here.
International Man: After the September 11th, travel changed forever. The government gave us the TSA, the Patriot Act, and all kinds of permanent restrictions. Do you think much of the restrictions brought on by the COVID hysteria will stay with us?
Doug Casey: Laws are almost never repealed. But lots of new laws are constantly added on. You have to remember that all of the world’s Congresses and Parliaments are still in session, and what they do is pass laws telling you what you must and must not do. People increasingly act like whipped dogs. Since "democracy" became a secular religion - starting about the time of World War 1 - individual freedom has been in shorter and shorter supply every year.
Of course, it’ll get much worse if Harris and Biden win the election. But the effect has been compounded - especially here in the US - by state legislatures and the kind of people who run things at the city and county level. As evidence of that, we have about 2,300 so-called "employee housing units" - aka subsidized housing - in this town of 7,300. They’re available for those making less than a rather shocking $150,000 a year. The place has only the ultra-rich and the workers and peasants who cater to them.
But, to answer the question, the US is not going back to things as they once were. The COVID hysteria has precipitated as major a change as 9/11 did. Actually, even worse. That’s because everybody can see that there aren’t Muhammadan terrorists walking around, but this virus can be said to be everywhere.
International Man: 33 of the 50 US States have a mandatory mask mandate. This is unprecedented. What’s your take on this and the future of civil liberties in the US?
Doug Casey: Well, the people that run for city council, county commissioner, or the state legislature all want to move up the pecking order. They’re basically nobodies - busybodies that want to be somebody. The easiest way to have people recognize their names and faces is to run for office. They want to show that they are activists, and the way that they do that is by promising lots of "free" stuff to the booboisie. They love exercising power in the minor leagues to justify they’re worthy of moving up to the big time.
Surprisingly, Americans are now so used to being told what to do that they’re really acting like whipped dogs - rolling over on their backs and wetting themselves. The whole secular religion of political correctness has gotten completely out of hand.
I remember a few years ago, a friend of mine in the newsletter business, Marc Faber, said something that was completely accurate but politically incorrect in his private newsletter. And because of what he observed there to his private subscribers, he was kicked off the board of several public corporations. It cost him about half a million dollars a year in director’s fees.
You have to be very careful what you say in a world dominated by Jacobins and Bolsheviks - and even more careful about what you do in today’s locked down world.
Of course, this whole COVID thing isn’t a matter for the government to start with. It’s a matter between an individual and his doctor. If the person decides he wants to wear a mask, fine, and if he doesn’t, that’s fine too. If a person is old or sick, and therefore in real danger, he should self-isolate at home while others establish herd immunity and the virus burns itself out. It’s not something that should be legislated, especially by the kind of people who get into politics.
I have to add that COVID-19 may be deadly, but the average age of the person it kills is 80. Even then, it’s only old people who are sick and have other problems who are in danger. So, yes, COVID-19 kills people - like scores of other diseases - but not people who are of working age, and absolutely not people under 30.
This is a highly destructive hysteria, and we don’t know when it’s going to end. What we do know is that the hysteria is changing the entire nature of life.
International Man: The US presidential election is just a few weeks away. If Joe Biden and Kamala Harris win, how do you think their presidency will impact the country post-COVID-19?
Doug Casey: I regret to say that I still think Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are going to win. If they win, there’s no way out. But in fact, if Trump wins, there’s no way out either. He wants to print money as much as they do. He’s adamant about keeping interest rates at disastrously and destructively low levels. He’s quite happy to impose all kinds of duties and arbitrarily sign executive orders about anything and everything. The Greater Depression is going to be nasty either way.
It really is going to be a Harris regency, however. The worst - the most collectivist and statist - senator in the Senate will become the de facto president. Biden and Harris are surrounded by hard-core leftists, Marxists, and socialists. I don’t know how it’s going to end, except that it’s going to get violent. That’s because one of the things that they’ve hung their hats on is much stricter gun laws of all types. That may actually be the catalyst that sets it all off.
If the Donald is elected, however, the left will be rioting, looting, burning, and who knows what else. Trump won’t leave it up to the State and local authorities but will use the military to put them down. However, I’ll take four years of that kind of chaos, where the ancien regime is still in power, and the remnants of the old America still exist rather than watching the immediate Sovietizing of the US.
In other words, if Trump somehow is elected and maintains the office, we might have a four-year grace period. But there are no guarantees that he won’t be kicked out somehow. It’s all over but the shouting at this point for something like the old America. The best case is peaceful secession; the worst case is something like a civil war. I have, as you know, been saying this for several years.
International Man: Over the years, you’ve frequently said that although the financial and economic problems in the world are serious and accelerating, the biggest risks aren’t financial or economic. They’re political. Has 2020 set a new precedent for the political risks we all face?
Doug Casey: Absolutely. Financial and economic risks can be solved by investing properly and by going out and producing wealth and saving it. Economic and financial problems are things that you have some control over. No matter what the environment, you can make your life better. Political problems, on the other hand, are all about direct coercion. There’s not much you can do about them. We’re facing really serious political problems right now, compounded by sociological problems - and perhaps a serious war.
So what’s going to happen? People appear to want leaders - to be told what to do. They’ve been programmed to be irresponsible and to believe that somebody else - the State - is going to take care of them. The average citizen of every country has become much less responsible as the State has grown much, much larger over the last century.
With that being the case, when there are problems, people are going to look for a strong leader - and they’re going to get strong leaders. It’s true all over the world. We already see this with Narendra Modi in India, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Erdogan in Turkey, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Fernandez in Argentina, and more.
Countries everywhere are going towards so-called strong leadership. It’s shaping up like the ’30s with Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Roosevelt, and the rest of them.
As the situation gets completely out of control, people are going to look for dictatorial leaders to provide direction and safety. This decade is probably going to be the most dangerous since the Industrial Revolution overturned the basis of society over 200 years ago."
"Market Fantasy Updates 10/21/20"
"Market Fantasy Updates 10/21/20"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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Gregory Mannarino,
PM Oct 21, 2020
"And Yes… The FREAK SHOW Just Got Even FReAkiER! Wow!"
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Updated live.
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Daily Update (October 21st to 22nd)
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And now. The End game...
"Grave Faults...
“Only the following items should be considered to be grave faults: not respecting another's rights; allowing oneself to be paralyzed by fear; feeling guilty; believing that one does not deserve the good or ill that happens in one's life; being a coward. We will love our enemies, but not make alliances with them. They were placed in our path in order to test our sword, and we should, out of respect for them, struggle against them. We will choose our enemies.”
- Paulo Coelho, "Like the Flowing River"
"Road to Bankruptcy"
"Road to Bankruptcy"
by Bill Bonner
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "Our review of Donald Trump’s record in office yesterday brought forth a torrent of complaints from readers. No one disputed our arguments. Instead, they merely claimed that there was more to the story. Ruban L.: "In my opinion, no previous modern president has accomplished more good than President Trump has done."
Maybe Trump has done good things… other than those he promised to do. D. M. thinks so: "You failed to include the many good bills he initiated and passed! Typical Trump hater!"
Maybe he has been under a lot of pressure… Give him a break, says Sam A.: "He has been up against a very angry, agitated, and pathetic Democratic House of Representatives, as well as deeply embedded bureaucrats within the Deep State. At least he has made attempts at his chosen goals, which cannot be said of his predecessors, both Republican and Democrat."
Maybe Joe Biden will be a lot worse. Dean A.: "Yes, but what of the alternative right now? Crocked Joe “I’m losing my brain” Biden. And even worse, the new Socialist Hillary to take his place."
And maybe, if Trump gets a second chance, he’ll do better. Loyal subscriber Nick P.: "If Trump gets a second term, he’ll be free to do all of the things he has promised to do."
We could quarrel with any of those points of view. But they’re right… There is more to the story… And we’re coming to it. And it’s why the country is doomed to a hellish breakdown – social, political, and economic. And most likely, Mr. Biden will play a big role in it.
Golden Rule: But first, we’re not finished with Mr. Trump. Yes, Dear Reader, finally, we come to the money… If there was one thing Mr. Trump was supposed to be good at, it was money. After all, he was advertised as a billionaire… and a successful businessman.
We read his book, "The Art of the Deal", and had our doubts. He thinks you succeed in business by making the other guy lose. That has not been our experience. In private life… as in business… it is generally better to help the other guy win. It’s the Golden Rule. And it’s better to believe it, even if it isn’t true. Otherwise, you end up in endless arguments… divorces… and lawsuits. (USA Today counted 4,095 lawsuits involving Donald Trump over the last 30 years.)
Win-Lose View: Win-win deals – millions and millions of them… delicate and robust… obvious and hidden… simple and infinitely nuanced – are how the light, invisible hand of the Main Street economy produces real wealth. Win-lose deals are the stuff of politics – which is probably why The Donald took to it so readily. Politics means battles… fights… confrontations… And this win-lose view led him to make heavy-handed, confrontational decisions that actually hurt the economy, rather than helped it.
The trade wars, for example, were a bad idea from the get-go. So were his constant scrapes with Congress and the media. They endeared him to his base. But they undermined the cooperation and support he would need to put in place meaningful reforms, if he had planned any.
Highway to Disaster: Still, none of this may have mattered very much. Because, when the Big Man settled his big derrière into the Oval Office nearly four years ago… the country was already headed down that long, lonesome highway to disaster. And that, by the way, is the point of today’s Diary… and yesterday’s, too.
Yes, we think Donald Trump is especially incompetent and inconstant. But even a more serious person would have found little purchase in Washington. The whole establishment – the Deep State elite, who actually run the government – are deeply entrenched… well armed… and completely against reform. That said, Donald Trump’s term was singularly catastrophic. Not only did he miss whatever opportunity there remained to turn the bus around… he stepped on the gas.
Yesterday, we described the marginalia… the obiter dicta of Mr. Trump’s term. As we pointed out, most all the trends of the preceding years continued, with little molestation. The country was already on the downhill track… after peaking out at the end of the last century. And we saw how Mr. Trump sped up the decline… and increased the power of the predatory Swamp elite.
Loud and Clear: Today, we look at what made it possible: Money. Fake money. And here, the numbers speak loudly and clearly.
During the nearly four years of Trump’s leadership, America’s public debt grew faster, as a percentage of GDP, than it had under any U.S. administration in the last 40 years. When Obama left the White House, government debt was already at 100% of GDP. After just four years of Trump, it has risen to 135% – the biggest one-term increase in history. Trump added $4.5 trillion to the national debt in four years in office – even without a last-minute $2 trillion giveaway. That doesn’t sound like paying off the national debt. It sounds like the road to bankruptcy.
Good Times: And it is also what supports the Swamp critters and all the parasites and meddlers who are definitely not making America great again. The deficit in 2016, Obama’s last year, was already a disgraceful $585 billion. It was even more reckless and irresponsible than it appeared, because it came after six years of economic expansion. The idea is to make hay when the sun shines. But the sun had been beating down for 72 months… without a single piece of straw saved for tomorrow.
Cometh the Big Man, and the fair weather continued for another 37 months… and still, the barn remained empty. There was no sign of any surplus… or any thought for the future. Au contraire, Donald Trump wanted nothing to do with saving for tomorrow. He wanted to laissez les bons temps rouler today.
First, he pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Then, he reduced taxes by $1.7 trillion – mostly for the rich, who were already flush. But rather than cut spending to keep pace, he increased the military budget by $200 billion, which was the last thing the already-overfed Pentagon needed. And he threw another $100 billion into domestic boondoggles, too.
More Debt: His fans said that this would help the economy grow its way out of debt. It would “stimulate” growth, they said. But the only thing it really stimulated was more debt. Like a surly teenager having a growth spurt, Trump’s 2017 deficit shot up to $665 billion; then to $779 billion for 2018, and $984 billion for 2019. By 2020, the kid was knocking his head on doorways… with a deficit of more than $1.08 trillion for 2020.
And this was before the COVID Panic! Then, unable to contradict his own health team… and still eager for lower interest rates and more spending… the deficit for 2020 swelled to $3.1 trillion. So the feds were spending more than $2 for every $1 they collected in taxes.
This deluge of spending (fake money, of course) included hundreds of billions in scammy business loans… helicopter deliveries to the public, the vast majority of whom were still working and collecting salaries… and unemployment boosters that gave many people twice as much as they earned on the job. This was classic sh*thole country finance.
New Driver: And now… speeding down the road faster than ever… the American voters threaten to change the driver. Who would be most careful? Most sober? Most likely to steer us around the Dead Man’s Curve ahead? Stay tuned…"
"How It Really Is"
OCT 21, 2020 6:00 AM: "Rudy Giuliani Turns Over Alleged Photos Of Underage Girls From Hunter's Hard Drive To Delaware Police" "The evidence I gave them states it was reported to Joe Biden. What did he do about it?"
"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 10/21/20"
by David Leonhardt
10/21/20
"• The U.S. is averaging 59,000 new coronavirus cases a day, the most since the beginning of August.
• Researchers in London plan to infect volunteers with the virus then test vaccine candidates on them next year.
• With infections surging at the University of Michigan, local health officials ordered students to shelter in place for two weeks. “It’s basically a concession that the ill-conceived reopening plan didn’t work,” Nicholas Bagley, a Michigan Law professor tweeted.
• A recent surge of cases in Alaska offers a cautionary tale of pandemic life in cold weather.
• Nearly 300,000 more Americans have died this year than in a typical year. The official coronavirus death count is 220,000."
Oct 21, 2020, 9:08 AM ET:
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 40,865,400
people, according to official counts, including 8,316,027 Americans.
Oct 21, 2020 9:08 AM ET:
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count◆
OCT 21, 2020 1:03 PM: "New York COVID-19 Cases Top 2,000 For First Time Since May: Live Updates"
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Updated 10/21/20, 7:24 AM ET
Click image for larger size.
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A highly recommended "must read":
"Million New Yorkers Can't Afford Food As Hunger Crisis Worsens"
"Million New Yorkers Can't Afford Food As Hunger Crisis Worsens"
by Tyler Durden
"In the seventh month of the virus pandemic, New York City is still in shambles, with more than half a million residents unemployed as the small business collapse continues. Broadway is closed, Manhattan offices are empty as remote work dominates, violent crime is surging, and an exodus of people from the city has created a perfect storm of economic chaos that will hunt many New Yorkers for years.
A byproduct of the virus-induced economic downturn is food and housing insecurity for millions of people in the Tri-state area. Deep economic scarring produced by permanent job loss has left many people in a bind; some working-poor may never recover while others could take years.
Food and housing insecurity will be, or should be, a hot subject as millions in the Tri-state area are suffering ahead of the holidays. Readers may recall in early October, the Community FoodBank of New Jersey warned that more than one million New Jerseyans were expected to suffer food insecurity by the end of the year. Now the problem is becoming more widespread. At least one million New Yorkers are expected, or will soon, experience food insecurity, according to FOX 5 NY.
Alexander Rapaport, the executive director of Masbia soup kitchen network, said, "We have done disasters before, but nothing is even close to what we are doing now," referring to the long lines at food banks across the city is all too common. Masbia is a nonprofit soup kitchen network and food pantry, with Borough Park and Flatbush locations in Brooklyn and Forest Hills in Queens. Rapaport said there had been a 500% increase in demand.
In a separate report, NYT estimates the number of New Yorkers who are going hungry could be upwards of 1.5 million.
Denise Allen, a mother who visits one of Masbia's food banks, said: "I'm on a limited income. I visit every two to three weeks," said Allen. Rapaport said, "there is so much need. So much so that for the last three days, Rapaport, his staff, and volunteers have been operating around the clock. All three locations are now open 24/7, feeding 1,500 families a day, but it is still not enough." With demand high for food banks in the city, he said long lines have developed, which forced him to create an entirely new system in what he calls digital food bank lines. "You now have to make an appointment to pick up your box of food," Rapaport said.
Meanwhile, it's not just the Tri-state area that is in economic distress, with millions going hungry while others are at risk of eviction; Feeding America, one of the nation's top food banks, recently warned that it may run out of food in the next twelve months as demand has overwhelmed its network. Food and housing insecurity for millions of people across the country signals the transmission mechanism of stimulus, if that was through fiscal or monetary, has failed to support the working poor."
"The New Tyranny Few Even Recognize"
"The New Tyranny Few Even Recognize"
by Charles Hugh Smith
"It's pretty much universally recognized that authorities use crises to impose "emergency powers" that become permanent. This erosion of civil and economic liberties is always sold as "necessary for your own good." Of course the accretion of ever greater power in the hands of the few is for our own good. How could it be otherwise? (Irony off)
In this environment of "emergency powers", it's almost refreshing to find a power grab so blatant that its sheer boldness boggles the mind. I'm talking about the Federal Reserve's FedNow, a proposed system of instant payments and digital dollars. This paper from the Cleveland Fed describes the system: FedNow paper from clevelandfed.org (PDF) (via Cheryl A.)
The rationale for the system is two-fold: The Fed sees the current ACH (automatic clearing house) payment system used by banks as too slow and limited. Payments need to be instantaneous and there must be a way to reach unbanked households, the roughly 9 million U.S. households without a bank account. In the current system, stimulus payments couldn't reach these households quickly. The solution is a new payment system in which every household and business in the nation would have an account at FedNow, so the Fed can transfer funds directly and instantaneously into every household account (and presumably every business that the Fed has chosen to fund).
The second part of FedNow is the creation of a digital dollar which is just like the existing dollar with one tiny little difference: unlike cash (for example, a $20 bill), the digital dollars won't be anonymous. Each newly created digital dollar will be trackable. The Fed's rationale is that panic-hoarding of coins and cash by households is a problem, as the Treasury has to go to a lot of trouble to mint more coins and print more cash. The FedNow digital dollars will be quick and easy to create and distribute - and, ahem, track.
Do you see the monstrous power grabs this we're-here-to-help system would institute?
1. The power to borrow and distribute money that is currently reserved for the elected representatives in Congress would be bypassed by FedNow. Why wait around for slow, corrupt Congress to agree on stimulus, Universal Basic Income (UBI), etc.? With FedNow, the Fed can create trillions out of thin air and distribute the dough to households without any Congressional approval.
What's interesting about this is that Congress has no power to stop the Fed from printing endless trillions and distributing the money however the Fed chooses. As an independent quasi-public agency, intended to be apolitical and outside the reach of corrupt politicos, the Fed is free to create and distribute as much new digital currency as it sees fit.
With FedNow, Congress has lost the government's monopoly power to distribute funds. Congress can still borrow and spend money, of course, but the citizenry's elected officials no longer have the monopoly granted by the Constitution.
2. The anonymity of the nation's money will be lost to the Fed's digital dollars. Perhaps the Fed will declare that only those who wear their underwear outside their clothing will avoid penalties. (Referencing the 1970s film "Bananas".) Who's to say what the Fed will track, and for what purposes? The Fed, that's who.
There's a whiff of desperation in these FedNow power grabs. It's possible that the Fed has concluded that the elected legislative branch of government is now so thoroughly corrupt and dysfunctional that the Fed is forced to save the day, so to speak, by grabbing the power to create and distribute endless trillions to keep the increasingly impoverished and powerless citizenry from rebelling against the status quo.
The irony of course is that the primary source of the impoverishment of soaring inequality is the Fed itself, as the Fed's "permanent emergency powers" of sluicing trillions in free money for financiers has goosed the wealth of the top 0.1% while leaving 95% of the citizenry worse off as wage stagnation and rising inflation has eroded the standard of living/purchasing power of labor.
It's a nice trick, isn't it? First the Fed creates the inequality that makes rebellion inevitable and then it rides to the rescue with a power grab that nullifies the monopoly over governmental allocation of money the Constitution grants to Congress, and it destroys the anonymity of the "free money" it plans to distribute in the ultimate bread and circuses.
Clearly, the Fed reckons the public is foolish enough to believe the Fed's money will actually be "free." Check out what you've lost before declaring anything "free."
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Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Must Watch! “California Closing; Economic Abyss; Inflation Unstoppable; Stores Closing; China Economy Surging”
Jeremiah Babe,
“California Closing; Economic Abyss; Inflation Unstoppable;
Stores Closing; China Economy Surging”
"The World..."
"The world is a comedy to those that think, a tragedy to those who feel. "
- Horace Walpole, In a Letter, 1770
"China Heading To A Major Food Shortage! You Need To Get Prepared For Worldwide Starvation"
"China Heading To A Major Food Shortage!
You Need To Get Prepared For Worldwide Starvation"
by Epic Economist
"China, the world's most populous country. is facing massive food shortages. Just a couple of days ago, China has ascended as the largest global economy. However, the country still has a fair amount of national hardships to deal with in face of major supply disruptions witnessed this year. Despite Chinese government officials' efforts to reassure everything is going to be just fine, released data keeps showing that the country is presenting staggering food insecurity levels.
The Chinese supply chains have been continuously hit by several natural disasters, and many products have already become scarce on grocery shelves, while others are seeing a dramatic spike in prices. According to recent analysis, the trend will extend worldwide - and this is just the beginning. For that reason, today, we are going to investigate the food crisis that is now taking place in China, which will shortly resonate throughout the globe. The worldwide business shutdowns, drastic supply chain interruption, and natural catastrophes were problems not exclusive to China this year. Many countries had their economies severely damaged and are now finding themselves on the brink of a food crisis, which indicates this winter may be the toughest ever recorded. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is publicly acknowledging that further food shortages are coming.
In fact, as of August, the government has issued an anti-food-wasting campaign to encourage people to eat smaller portions and finish their plates. On the outside, the plan seems to be forward-thinking, promoting the idea of sustainable consumption. But behind the cheerful exterior that displays soldiers, factory workers, and schoolchildren polishing their plates clean of food, there is a harsh reality. As Eva Dou describes in a NY Times article published earlier this month, "China does not have enough fresh food to go around — and neither does much of the world."
In China, the two most scarce food products are pork and corn. The nation's pigs were hardly affected by African swine fever, while millions of acres of corn crops were ruined by floods. Overall, fresh foods of all sorts are in short supply as well - eggs, seafood, leafy green vegetables are nowhere to be found.
However, the State media and the government have been dismissing suggestions that China is facing a crisis of food shortage. For the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the food thrift campaign envisions to end to food waste, a problem he considers to be "shocking and distressing". He doesn't directly admit a shortfall in food production but describes the sanitary outbreak as a warning sign: "Though China has reaped a bumper grain harvest for years, it is still necessary to have the awareness of a food security crisis.
In Shanghai, strict regulations were enacted forcing individuals and companies to correctly recycle their food waste. Those who didn't comply had to face fines or penalties to their social credit rating, which seems controversial because it directly affects people's economic and social prospects. In Changsha, it was registered that a popular chain of restaurants have set up two scales and asked patrons to weigh themselves before entering. After entering their weight and personal information into an app, the customers were provided with the restaurant’s suggested menu items. The system sparked discontentment on social media and netizens started to accuse the chain of fat-shaming. The "N-1" plan also faced lots of criticism online, with some outlining that it was "too rigid".
To make things worse, Beijing's developing-world allies are living through their worst food crisis in decades, with millions that managed to stay afloat during the past few years, once again pushed inside poverty statistics. Also, The Shanghai Green Food Bank, one of China’s rare private food banks, noted that growing numbers of the city’s migrant workers are not managing to make ends meet and are in need of food assistance.
This distressing outlook for food insecurity happening on the supposed world's largest economy is an unfortunate sign that many other countries will go down the same path as well. Considering that even China - which has enormous stockpiles of grains and other goods and has been restructuring its economy amid a global economic collapse, is facing acute disruptions on its supply chains and alarming its citizens about food insecurity - the situation in less-developed countries and nations who were deeply affected by the current crisis will be even more worrisome.
In conclusion, The World Food Program economist Arif Husain has recently projected that 270 million people across the globe will suffer from acute hunger this year, twice last year’s count. And this figure doesn’t even include China, the United States, and European nations traditionally considered food secure. “No region has been spared,” he said. “Literally the whole world is affected.”
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Related:
Gregory Mannarino, "Waiting On The Freak Show. Deal Or No Deal?"
Gregory Mannarino,
PM 10/20/20: "Waiting On The Freak Show. Deal Or No Deal?"
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Related:
"A Look to the Heavens"
“The Cat's Eye Nebula (NGC 6543) is one of the best known planetary nebulae in the sky. Its more familiar outlines are seen in the brighter central region of the nebula in this impressive wide-angle view. But the composite image combines many short and long exposures to also reveal an extremely faint outer halo. At an estimated distance of 3,000 light-years, the faint outer halo is over 5 light-years across.
Planetary nebulae have long been appreciated as a final phase in the life of a sun-like star. More recently, some planetary nebulae are found to have halos like this one, likely formed of material shrugged off during earlier episodes in the star's evolution. While the planetary nebula phase is thought to last for around 10,000 years, astronomers estimate the age of the outer filamentary portions of this halo to be 50,000 to 90,000 years. Visible on the left, some 50 million light-years beyond the watchful planetary nebula, lies spiral galaxy NGC 6552.”
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