"Shooting At The Sky"

"Shooting At The Sky"

by Addison Wiggin

"Well it may be the Devil


Or it may be the Lord


But you're gonna have to serve somebody."

- Bob Dylan, "Slow Train Coming"

"Following yesterday’s 522 point drubbing, the Dow opened this morning down another 207 points, dipping briefly below 30,000 for the first time since December 4th, 2020… nearly two years ago. Year to date the old hag is down 6,251 points, almost 18%. “I do not care at all what happens to the stock market,” writes Carl N, one of our wiliest of readers, “What I do care about is the daily rising cost of staying alive – food and energy.” “Fix that first,” Carl impeaches.

Would that we could, sir. Fed Chair Powell seems to believe in earnest that by inflicting pain on the average day laborer, he can rein in soaring costs for food and energy. Powell led us to believe in his remarks that more rate hikes are on the way. Reading between the Chairman’s lines, Goldman analysts raised their forecast from a peak Fed Funds rate of 4.5% to 4.75%. Their forecast? Rate hikes of 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February. Expect assets in all classes on Wall Street to continue deflating.

We agree, watching the Dow can be tedious. But only when it's going down! That being said, wisdom comes from consilient action. In science and history, consilience is the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources can “converge” on strong conclusions. The stock market is consilient by nature. It is the sum total of millions of individual decisions reflecting the tone and tenor of life as we know it. Whether we like it or not the market is a reflection of what we, collectively, expect for our own future.

As with politics, you ignore the markets at your peril. Fed rate hikes mean credit is tightening. When credit tightens it’s harder to buy houses, it’s harder to buy cars, it’s harder to pay for school. Small businesses find it hard to expand or even stay open. People begin to receive pink slips. Stocks fall. Retirements get postponed.

On the energy front, my co-author on several books, Bill Bonner, is predicting a “Nightmare Winter” in America. More on that below…We find the stock market fascinating. What does the Dow dropping 6,521 points mean? More people appear to be betting our credit-fueled foray into hedonism is, in fact, uh… coming to an end.

We suspect in the coming months, many folks are going to begin heeding the words of this week’s TWS guest. Or just keep shooting at the sky.

“There's no way to crack into this without getting into theological territory,” says James Poulos, author of "Human Forever." Poulos continues: "I know there are a lot of smart people right now who are like, “No, no, no, reason can explain everything. It's time to leave this barbarism of theological stuff behind.

Well think of Bertrand Russell and how he was making these arguments like, “Oh, religion is so silly. And that's why I spend all day contemplating the pure austerity of mathematics, which gives me the most ennobled and perfect feeling that a human being can have.” And it's like, “Well, Russell, you are making a God out of math." So as Bob Dylan said: “You gotta serve somebody. You got to worship someone or something.” Some people worship mammon. Some simply like the game. Some want to buy bigger houses. Some want to travel. Others want to sit on their couches and not do another damn day of work. They’re all the same to me. They just go by different names…"

We apologize for this fair bit of navel-gazing. But that’s one of the reasons we started The Wiggin Sessions, so we could talk to people of all stripes and perspectives. The markets are changing. If you can keep your head on straight through the imminent storm you are going to come out the other end stronger and in a better position for health and wealth.

We defer again to Poulos: "One of the most important things to bring us back to reality is to remember who we are. Questions that historically have only been answerable in a theological way, they’re coming back. It's not going to be rationalism forever, it's not going to be materialism forever. Obviously reason plays a role in our human equipment, obviously we live in an at least partially material world. That's definitely not going to change. It doesn't need to change. It shouldn't change, shouldn't see it as bad news. But the theological stuff is coming back. I think you see it everywhere you go."

Like we said on Monday… In the end, we as human beings, just want something to believe in. Whether that’s family, God, Donald Trump… or the late Queen Elizabeth II. Poulos continues: "These impulses have deep roots – this kind of nihilism – it has deep roots. And the reckoning that is being caused by our confrontation with the mastery of our lives, by our own devices. That's the kind of confrontation that should remind us very forcefully that our humanity is only going to occur to us and bring deep, transcendent, ultimate value if we see it through a theological lens."

The choice, then, when the proverbial sh*t hits the fan in the coming months is... up to us. “Take a breath, look around,” Poulos concludes: "Remember who you are. Americans do have advantages. And one of them is despite the rise in a sort of its culture of self-loathing, we still have a lot to be grateful for. We still have a lot to be proud of, and these are resources that we need and that we can rely on to make this transition in a way that's going to be a lot rockier for others."

I remember thinking immediately after speaking to Mr. Poulos the conversation was a little over-the-top spiritual for my taste. But rereading the transcript and seeing clips from the YouTube video I realize, he’s making some valid points about our state of being. 

“Markets make opinions,” the saying goes. If credit is flowing and the market is rising there’s not a lot of need for navel-gazing. When the trends start going in the other direction in earnest, well… we all gotta lean on something.  None of this, Carl, helps with your immediate concern over food and energy prices, of course. If history holds, those are likely to get worse before they get better.

“I mean, theoretically,” Mr. Bonner concludes, “we could control it, but we can't really because what happens is an empire becomes powerful, and the power corrupts the people who run the empire.” You can find the whole interview with James Poulos here. It’s an interesting take on this historic moment, even when good faith is hard to come by.

Follow your bliss,"

- https://5minforecast.com/wiggin-sessions/

Thanks for writing in. Anyone else? You can write to me here.

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Bob Dylan, "Slow Train Coming"

Musical Interlude: Liquid Mind, "Laguna Indigo"

Full screen recommended.

Liquid Mind, "Laguna Indigo"

"A Look to the Heavens

“This shock wave plows through space at over 500,000 kilometers per hour. Moving toward to bottom of this beautifully detailed color composite, the thin, braided filaments are actually long ripples in a sheet of glowing gas seen almost edge on. Cataloged as NGC 2736, its narrow appearance suggests its popular name, the Pencil Nebula.

About 5 light-years long and a mere 800 light-years away, the Pencil Nebula is only a small part of the Vela supernova remnant. The Vela remnant itself is around 100 light-years in diameter and is the expanding debris cloud of a star that was seen to explode about 11,000 years ago. Initially, the shock wave was moving at millions of kilometers per hour but has slowed considerably, sweeping up surrounding interstellar gas.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120924.html

"Soon Or Late..."

“A craven can be as brave as any man, when there is nothing to fear. And we all do our duty, when there is no cost to it. How easy it seems then, to walk the path of honor. Yet soon or late in every man’s life comes a day when it is not easy, a day when he must choose.”

- George R.R. Martin

"Russia Will Mobilize About 1.2% Of Her Mobilizational Potential"

"Russia Will Mobilize About 1.2% Of Her Mobilizational Potential"

by The Saker

"So, after lots of speculation, we now know that the Kremlin has decided to mobilize about 300’000 soldiers from a total mobilizational potential of 25,000,000 soldiers. That’s just a little over 1% of Russia’s mobilizational potential. We are talking only about those soldiers who have an official status of “reserves” and all of them will have to undergo a special training before being sent to the Ukraine. A few comments about this decision:

It will take Russia a few months to gather and retrain (refresher courses) these forces and they will not be immediately available to protect the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson regions during the upcoming referendum on to whether to join Russia or not. The 3rd volunteer army corps is already deployed in the south and could greatly assist in this.

Putin and Shoigu gave several reasons for this decision, including the very long line of contact, the direct involvement of NATO personnel who are now running the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and the threats by the West to dismantle Russia.

Shoigu indicated that the UAF lost about 50% of its personnel (over 100,000 soldiers out of a total potential of about 200,000). He also added that most of the Ukrainian weapons systems, which were of Soviet origin, was mostly destroyed. Russian KIAs are just under 6000 soldiers.

Shoigu also clearly spelled out that “we are not so much fighting against the Ukraine but against NATO plus the united (collective) West“.

Shoigu also mentioned that all of the NATO satellite capabilities (70 military and 200+ civilian satellites) are used against Russia right now.

Finally, Shoigu added that NATO high precision weapons are deliberately used by NATO commanders to terrorize civilians.

In other words, Russia is preparing for an escalation of this war in the coming months. She is basically augmenting her forces to a level which could deal with a major NATO escalation in the Ukraine (and elsewhere as not all mobilized forces would have to be combat units; deploying more C4ISR capabilities, logistics/supply forces or civil affairs and counter-terrorism units would also make sense).

The other big news of the day is, of course, that Russia will back and accept the outcome of the referendums in the four regions mentioned above. Frankly, I have mixed feelings about this decision, but I understand that the Kremlin simply had no other option for the following reasons: This decision put away the thorny issue of “will the Russians stay or leave”. Once the four regions vote to become part of Russia (which most opinion polls say will happen), they will forever retain that status.

With all the rumors in the West about a limited use of nuclear forces, by making these four regions part of Russian proper, not just de facto but also de jure, Russia extends her nuclear umbrella over them (Russian military doctrine allows for the use of nukes if the territorial integrity and safety of Russia are under threat). Here I will quote Putin:

"They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia. I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff."

Furthermore, I have always said that for all my total support and sympathy, the LDNR republics have major issues (including security issues!) and I am immensely relieved that the Russian state organs, including security services, will now directly take over the management of these republics. Of course, we can expect the usual hysterics and doubling-down from the western ruling class which already promised never to recognize the outcome of any referendums. Russia understands that and she has now taken the measures needed for a long conflict.

As for the Ukronazis, we can be sure that they will do everything in their power to try to disrupt the referendums. Furthermore, they NATO commanders in Kiev fully understand that the Russian forces will only become more powerful over the next few months, so they will be in a hurry to score as many victories (including the murder of civilians and strikes against the civilian infrastructure) as possible.

I fully expect an increase in NATO+Ukronazi attacks in the coming weeks and months. These attacks will only stop when a) the West runs out of resources and b) then their outcome will bring no tangible results whatsoever.

For the consolidated West, this was and has been mostly about optics: PR, PSYOPs, propaganda, you name it. With this latest Russian reaction, it will become even MORE crucial for the rulers of the consolidated West to convince their serfs that Russia is losing and the West winning. Since the western ruling classes know that time is running out (both militarily AND economically) they are desperately trying to conceal this by vociferously proclaiming that the Russian “field negros” will get punished (lynched!) for their audacity to disobey the Great Masters of the Universe.

I want to note here that this mini-mobilization will have a important psychological effect upon the Russian society: the “business as usual” mindset is now clearly obsolete. The Russian MIC has received a direct message that it is now also “mobilized”. The rest of the Russian economy will take notice, I am sure. As will the people. I welcome that “change of tone” very much.

Anyway, I will conclude with a few short items.

Some trolls have constantly been begging me to “show them the bodies”. Okay, I found a Telegram channel with enough bodies to, hopefully, satisfy them: https://t.me/ZLOIORK

Next, the Poles have already threatened to conduct their own referendum in the western Ukraine. Who would have doubted that the Hyena of Europe will bite off a little morsel of the Ukraine for itself (especially one which did belong to Poland historically).

In the meantime, Armenia has threatened to leave the The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a decision which, if that happens, I will fully support and celebrate! The CSTO needs a good cleaning, to put it mildly. Russia saved the sorry asses of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian, and yet all three are still playing that wannabe smart-ass policy of “multi-vectorness” which, in plain English, means “we want Russia to protect us while we sell out to the USA”. The truth is that Russia has much better partners than most of her immediate neighbors and the likes of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian need to learn things the hard way. That is what Armenia is experiencing right how. Maybe Lukashenko and Tokaev will get the message and learn the lesson. As for Armenia, it will just get what it deserves…

In sharp contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and even Turkey have been much more responsible partners for Russia (though Turkey also needs a “reminder” from time to time to behave). And since now the Armenians have “security guarantees” from no less than Pelosi (!) they can now sleep in peace with no need for Russian protection, right?

As for the City on the Hill, the world Sole Superpower, it is busy with nonsense like this: “Unexpectedly, the USAF Finds Itself With a Critical Shortage of Pilots While It Says It Has Too Many White Officers“. As the French like to say, the more things change, the more they remain the same…"

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

- https://thesaker.is/

The Daily "Near You?"

Columbia, Tennessee, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Could Be Worse..."

"I'd been in hairier situations than this one. Actually, it's sort of depressing, thinking how many times I'd been in them. But if experience had taught me anything, it was this: No matter how screwed up things are, they can get a whole lot worse."

- Jim Butcher

Dig your way out, they said...

“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”

“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”

by Simon Black

“In the early summer of 1914, Albert Einstein was about to start a prestigious new job as Director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics. The position was a big deal for the 35-year old Einstein – confirmation that he was one of the leading scientific minds in the world. And he was excited about what he would be able to achieve there. But within weeks of Einstein’s arrival, the German government canceled plans for the Institute; World War I had broken out, and all of Europe was gearing up for one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history.

The impact of the Great War was immeasurable. It cost the lives of 20 million people. It bankrupted entire nations. The war ripped two major European powers off the map – the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire – and deposited them in the garbage can of history. Austria-Hungary in particular boasted the second largest land mass in Europe, the third highest population, and one of the biggest economies. Plus it was a leading manufacturer of high-tech machinery. Yet by the end of the war it would no longer exist.

World War I also played a major role in the emergence of communism in Russia through the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Plus it was also a critical factor in the astonishing rise of the Nazi party in Germany. Without the Great War, Adolf Hitler would have been an obscure Austrian vagabond, and our world would be an entirely different place.

One of the most bizarre things about World War I was how predictable it was. Tensions had been building in Europe for years, and the threat of war was deemed so likely that most major governments invested heavily in detailed war plans. The most famous was Germany’s “Schlieffen Plan”, a military offensive strategy named after its architect, Count Alfred von Schlieffen. To describe the Schlieffen Plan as “comprehensive” is a massive understatement.

As AJP describes in his book "War by Timetable", the Schlieffen Plan called for rapidly moving hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front lines, plus food, equipment, horses, munitions, and other critical supplies, all in a matter of DAYS. Tens of thousands of trains were criss-crossing Europe during the mobilization, and as you can imagine, all the trains had to run precisely on time. A train that was even a minute early or a minute late would cause a chain reaction to the rest of the plan, affecting the time tables of other trains and other troop movements. In short, there was no room for error.

In many respects the Schlieffen Plan is still with us to this day – not with regards to war, but for monetary policy. Like the German General Staff more than a century ago, modern central bankers concoct the most complicated, elaborate plans to engineer economic victory. Their success depends on being able to precisely control the [sometimes irrational] behavior of hundreds of millions of consumers, millions of businesses, dozens of foreign nations, and trillions of dollars of capital. And just like the obtusely complex war plans from 1914, central bank policy requires that all the trains run on time. There is no room for error.

This is nuts. Economies are comprised of billions of moving pieces that are beyond anyone’s control and often have competing interests. A government that’s $30 trillion in debt requires cheap money (i.e. low interest rates) to stay afloat. Yet low interest rates are severely punishing for savers, retirees, and pension funds (including Social Security) because they’re unable to generate a sufficient rate of return to meet their needs.

Low interest rates are great for capital intensive businesses that need to borrow money. But they also create dangerous asset bubbles and can eventually cause a painful rise in inflation. Raise interest rates too high, however, and it could bankrupt debtors and throw the economy into a tailspin. Like I said, there’s no room for error – they have to find the perfect balance between growth and inflation.

Several years ago hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio summed it up perfectly when he said, “It becomes more and more difficult to balance those things as time goes on. It may not be a problem in the next year or two, but the risk of not getting it right increases with time. The risk of them getting it wrong is clearly growing. I truly hope they don’t get it wrong. But if they ever do, people may finally look back and wonder how we could have been so foolish to hand total control of our economy over to an unelected committee of bureaucrats with a mediocre track record… and then expect them to get it right forever. It’s pretty insane when you think about it."

As Einstein quipped at the height of World War I in 1917, “What a pity we don’t live on Mars so that we could observe the futile activities of human beings only through a telescope…”

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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"It is common to assume that human progress affects everyone - that even the dullest man, in these bright days, knows more than any man of, say, the Eighteenth Century, and is far more civilized. This assumption is quite erroneous. The great masses of men, even in this inspired republic, are precisely where the mob was at the dawn of history. They are ignorant, they are dishonest, they are cowardly, they are ignoble. They know little if anything that is worth knowing, and there is not the slightest sign of a natural desire among them to increase their knowledge."

- H. L. Mencken, 1929

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Freely download "Ideas And Opinions", by Albert Einstein, here:

-  https://namnews.files.wordpress.com/

"Russian Nukes Can Be Used To Defend Annexed Ukraine Regions, Kremlin Warns"

Dmitry Medvedev

"Russian Nukes Can Be Used To Defend 

Annexed Ukraine Regions, Kremlin Warns"

by Tyler Durden

"Once again Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has served the role of issuing more severe 'read between the lines' warnings and threats fresh off President Vladimir Putin's Wednesday speech announcing partial mobilization of national forces and which confirmed referendums of occupied portions of Ukraine to join the Russian Federation.

Putin's most alarming line came when he said, "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people," following with "It’s not a bluff." He had also stressed Moscow is ready to use "all available" means to protect its "territorial integrity".

Medvedev has taken the president's words further in Thursday statements, stressing that regarding Russian-seized territory and the move to vote in several areas - including the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions - "there is no going back" and that even a 'nuclear option' could be on the table.

"The Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] republics and other territories will be accepted into Russia," he posted to Telegram. That's when the former president and top national security official doubled down on Putin's nuclear warning, stating: "Russia has announced that not only mobilization capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection."

Putin and Medvedev's statements mark the first time any top Russian officials have affirmed readiness to bring newly acquired Russian territories under Moscow's nuclear doctrine. However, it remains that Russian forces do not yet control 100% of any of the four main territories where annexation votes are to be held - with some referendums set for early as this weekend according to prior reports.

To review of the past 48 hours of Kremlin decision-making which is poised to escalate this war even further, here is the logical course of what just got enacted in the call-up of some 300,000 reservists:

• Conscripts were previously told they won't be sent to Ukraine to fight because they are stationed/defend inside Russia.

 • Ukrainian-held territories are now about to vote to join the Russian Federation.

 • When these territories join Russian then they are "inside Russia." They are Russian oblasts and attempts to defend (formerly) Ukrainian territory would then mark an invasion of Russian territory supported by NATO equipment.

Thus Medvedev's warning of 'willingness' to use nukes covers these territories inside Ukraine. “Territorial integrity” is of course tricky as Russia is currently planning to absorb 4 Ukrainian regions, none of which is even fully controlled by its armed forces. Would this mean that Ukraine would be threatened with nuclear weapons to hand them to Russia?" 

- Andrey Baklitskiy (@baklitskiy) September 21, 2022

Putin's emphasis of this is "not a bluff" notwithstanding, some analysts say this is all about posturing in order to scare NATO away from escalation...“I think it signals that he wants people to think he would risk nuclear war,” Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “I don’t think it means he is any more likely to do it than he was yesterday.” "If he says that any attack on soil that he calls Russia is going to be a nuclear tripwire, Ukraine’s already broken that in Crimea," O’Brien added in comments given to NBC. Yet Washington says it is taking this nuclear rhetoric seriously.

As for the White House, President Biden in his Wednesday UN General Assembly speech in New York called out Putin's “overt, reckless and irresponsible” nuclear threats, warning that such wars should “never be fought” and that Russia's actions should make everyone's “blood run cold”. He renewed his warning of “a nuclear war cannot be won” - saying the US does “not seek a cold war.”

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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Related:

"Serbian President Warns Of 'Great World Conflict' Within Two Months"

“I assume that we’re leaving the phase of the special military operation and approaching a major armed conflict, and now the question becomes where is the line, and whether after a certain time – maybe a month or two, even – we will enter a great world conflict not seen since the Second World War.” 

- Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia

"Don’t Panic! - It Gets Worse From Here"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 9/22/22:

"Don’t Panic! - It Gets Worse From Here"

"We have seen promise after promise from the Fed. There is no way that they’re going to fix inflation. They just did a 3/4% rise in interest-rates and they think that’s going to fix everything. It is going to do nothing but create a slow burn towards the Depression."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

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Related:

"Inflation Costing Average American Family $11,500 This Year"

"Americans are set to fork out an extra $11,500 this year if they want to enjoy the same standard of living they maintained in 2020, according to new estimates from NerdWallet."

Gregory Mannarino, "Multi-Billionaire Investors Warn: A Disaster Is Coming"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/22/22:

"Multi-Billionaire Investors Warn: A Disaster Is Coming"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Massive Price Increases At Whole Foods Market! This Is Ridiculous!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 9/22/22:

"Massive Price Increases At Whole Foods Market! 

This Is Ridiculous!"

"In today's vlog we are at Whole Foods Market, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"How It Really Is"

 

Gerald Celente, Andrew Napolitano, "World War III Heating Up"

Full screen recommended.

Gerald Celente, Andrew Napolitano, 9/21/22:

"World War III Heating Up"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Walmart Prepares For Big Trouble; FED Ominous Warning, Markets Panic; Housing Market Chaos"

Full screen recommended.

Jeremiah Babe, 9/21/22:

"Walmart Prepares For Big Trouble; FED Ominous Warning,

 Markets Panic; Housing Market Chaos"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The Armageddon Gang"

"The Armageddon Gang"

by Addison Wiggin

“Don’t spit down my back and tell me it’s raining.”

- Kami Garcia

"After the Fed announced a .75 point hike in the overnight rate, the Dow gave market watchers whiplash. In the first 20 minutes the index dropped over 330 points. Twenty five minutes after that it had recovered over 500 points. Then, it tanked again… by the close the DJIA has lost 522 points on the day, down 1.7%.

Just goes to show we’re not out of the riptide, yet. In fact, we’re likely getting sucked into deeper water. Rising interest rates in a world full of debt can be deadly. Especially to the corporate moribund. “Look at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments,” wrote the perspicacious Nouriel Roubini – the ominous Dr. Doom – in Bloomberg yesterday. “As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die.”

Persistent inflation in wages and the service sector will mean the Fed will “probably have no choice” but to hike more. “We’ll see who’s swimming naked,” Roubini paraphrases the oft-referenced Warren Buffet.

Not long after the 2008 financial crisis, Bethany McClean, then writing for Fortune magazine, called me on the telephone. Mrs. McClean wanted to know, after the collapse of the housing market, how we fared through it all. She was doing a feature on those who got the story right. One example she used to illustrate her angle was the noteworthy parties Nouriel Roubini was throwing in New York City. Plus, my book, "The Empire of Debt."

Roubini is now forecasting a similar collapse. Only this time it’s worse. Time to giddy-up “The Armageddon Gang.” "At some point, America's debts will be incinerated by inflation," Bill Bonner and I surmised in our co-authored book "Empire of Debt."

Of course, we thought the incineration would begin long before 2022. But, as the saying goes, “What comes around goes around.” In financial markets – like politics and love and other all-too-human relationships – people make the same mistakes over and over (and over) again.

The government and the Fed are “running out of fiscal bullets,” says Roubini. And now “if you do fiscal stimulus, you’re overheating the aggregate demand.” “This is really moving into restrictive monetary policy territory,” comments Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG US. “We will be moving into no man’s land. Their goal is for a prolonged slowdown that grinds inflation slowly down and only gradually increases the unemployment rate.”

Seems like most economists are hopping on the next wagon out of town. That being said… one truth remains in America today: The consumer will spend.

I call it "The Recession That Wasn't" in the "Demise of the Dollar." In essence, the Fed cannot control prices. They can only attempt to slow down consumer demand in what is coming to be known by an awful oxymoron – “the Growth Recession.” The conflict that Roubini presents... despite Fed rate hikes and the like, the spender will spend. And that only drives inflation higher.

So will we see Dow 20,000? And continue to Fed-watch for the next three years? Regardless of our short term analysis of the markets, we are suffering from what Bill Bonner calls “inflation psychosis.” “This is something bigger,” Bill continues: "You can't analyze this phenomenon the same way you can analyze a financial cycle because it's largely psychological. It's a group think. It's collective impulses, and so on. You end up with a situation where empires inevitably go bad. Then you look to try to find out how they're going bad, why they're going bad, when they're going bad. And that's what you do. And you still don't really know."

But you can see the patterns repeating themselves. “I mean, theoretically,” Mr. Bonner concludes, “we could control it, but we can't really because what happens is an empire becomes powerful, and the power corrupts the people who run the empire.” What a whirlwind Hump Day. More to come this week. Stay tuned. So it goes…"

- https://5minforecast.com/wiggin-sessions/

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"So it goes..."

"The Height of Idiocy"

"The Height of Idiocy"

by Doug Casey

"The only element in the universe more

 common than hydrogen is stupidity."

– Einstein

"I’m not a fortune teller. In fact, the only things anybody knows about predicting – even if you gussy the concept up by calling it "forecasting" – are 1.) Predict often and 2.) Never give both the time and the event.

The worst offenders are those who pretend they know where the economy’s headed. Statistics – so often the basis of conjecture with regard to the economy – are so subject to interpretation, and so easy to take out of context, that most of the time they’re best used as fodder for cocktail party conversations. Still, as potentially wrong-headed and tendentious as the subject is, "the economy" is occasionally worth talking about simply to establish a clear point of view. In fact, I place the phrase "the economy" in quotes because I don’t even accept the validity of the concept, nor that of "the GDP"; they’re both chimeras.

The idea of GDP gives the impression that it is not individuals that produce goods and services, but rather a machine called "the economy." This leaves the door open to all manner of nonsense, like the assertion that what may be good for individuals may not be good for the economy, and vice-versa.

For instance, an advance in the GDP doesn’t necessarily mean increased prosperity: What if the government embarked on a massive pyramid building program, an archetypical example of public works? GDP might rise, but it would add absolutely nothing to the well-being of individuals. To the contrary, the building of the pyramid would only divert capital from wealth-generating activities.

On the other hand, if a scientific breakthrough was made which cut energy consumption by 80% for the same net output, or magically eliminated all disease, the GDP would collapse because it would bankrupt the energy and health industries. But people would be vastly better off.

Entirely apart from that, the whole idea of GDP gives the impression that there actually is such a thing as the national output. In the real world, however, wealth is produced by someone and belongs to somebody. We’re not ants or bees working for the hive. The whole idea of a GDP just allows the "authorities" to bamboozle people into believing they can actually control "the economy," as if it were some giant machine.

The officials pretend to be the Wizard of Oz, and Boobus americanus is trained to think they’re omniscient. Thus whenever the rate of growth slips "too low," officials are expected to give "the economy" a suitable push. Conversely, whenever "the economy" is growing too fast, the officials are supposed to step in to "cool" it. It’s all an embarrassing and destructive charade. 

Nonetheless…I remain of the opinion that we’re headed into the biggest economic smashup in history. That’s an outrageous statement, and it’s always dangerous to say something like that. After all, the longest trend in motion is the Ascent of Man, and that trend is unlikely to change; indeed, it’s likely to accelerate. And it’s usually a mistake to bet against an established trend. Furthermore, science and technology will continue advancing, people will continue working and saving, entrepreneurs will continue to create. And downturns in the economy have always been brief. There’s a good case for staying bullish.

Even most of those who talk of a recession tend to write it off as either a simple reversal of recent "irrational exuberance," or a passing change in people’s psychology, or a temporary shock. Unfortunately, it goes much deeper than that. Those things have very little to do with what recessions are all about.

A recession, according to the conventional parlance, is a period when economic activity declines for two or more quarters. That’s a description of what happens, but it’s really not very helpful, much like saying a fever is a period during which your temperature is above 98.6 F. A better definition of a fever might be a period when the body’s temperature is elevated as a consequence of fighting an infection, in that it gives you some insight into the cause as well as the effect. That’s why I prefer to say a recession is "a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital caused by the business cycle are liquidated."

What causes the business cycle? Excess creation of credit by a central bank (e.g., the Fed). The injection of artificially created money and credit into a country’s economy gives both producers and consumers false signals, causing them to do things which they otherwise would not do. The longer the upswing of a business cycle continues, the longer and more severe the down cycle will be. A depression is just a really bad recession.

One thing that – contrary to popular opinion – can help get an economy out of a recession is a large pool of savings; savings give people the money to invest in new production, as well as the money to buy that production. That’s why it’s the height of idiocy for pundits to talk about how patriotic it is to go out and shop. It can only deplete the capital that will be needed in the future, and deepen the bottom with more bankruptcies, stealing consumption from the future.

That’s why the Fed’s artificially low interest rates is such a bad idea; it encourages people to save less and borrow more. This engineered decline may well, after a certain lag time, cause a cyclical upturn – but it will only aggravate the underlying problem, guaranteeing yet a bigger bust.

This isn’t just an American problem, because the U.S. is truly the engine of the world’s economy. But a lot of the drive behind the engine is the gigantic trade deficit. The hundreds of billions the U.S. sent abroad in the last year alone, after over a decade of increasing deficits, has caused a lot of capital investment that will become uneconomic, and created a lot of economic activity that will come to a screeching halt when that deficit inevitably reverses. The whole world is levered on what happens in the U.S.

The effect in economies around the world will be devastating. The Smoot Hawley tariff of 1930, which acted to collapse world trade, greatly exacerbated the last depression. It could be that economic conditions in the U.S. alone could do it this time, without the overt "assistance" of the government. I don’t believe we’re looking at just another cyclical downturn this time. We could be – but I don’t think so.

Of course, since the dollar is by far the biggest market in the world, constituting the reserves of almost every government on the planet, the de facto currency of probably 50 countries, and the savings of hundreds of millions of people around the world, when it collapses, it will cause a financial earthquake, Magnitude 10."

- internationalman.com

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Musical Interlude: Dire Straits, "Private Investigations"

Dire Straits, "Private Investigations"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"From afar, the whole thing looks like an Eagle. A closer look at the Eagle Nebula, however, shows the bright region is actually a window into the center of a larger dark shell of dust. Through this window, a brightly-lit workshop appears where a whole open cluster of stars is being formed. In this cavity tall pillars and round globules of dark dust and cold molecular gas remain where stars are still forming. Already visible are several young bright blue stars whose light and winds are burning away and pushing back the remaining filaments and walls of gas and dust.

The Eagle emission nebula, tagged M16, lies about 6500 light years away, spans about 20 light-years, and is visible with binoculars toward the constellation of the Serpent (Serpens). This picture involved over 12 hours of imaging and combines three specific emitted colors emitted by sulfur (colored as red), hydrogen (yellow), and oxygen (blue).”

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

The Poet: John O'Donohue, "In These Times "

"In These Times"

 "In these times when anger

Is turned into anxiety,

And someone has stolen

The horizons and mountains,

Our small emperors on parade

Never expect our indifference

To disturb their nakedness.

They keep their heads down,

And their eyes gleam with reflection

From aluminum economic ground,

The media wraps everything

In a cellophane of sound,

And the ghost surface of the virtual

Overlays the breathing earth.

The industry of distraction 

Makes us forget

That we live in a universe.

We have become converts 

To the religion of stress

And its deity of progress;

That we may have courage 

To turn aside from it all

And come to kneel down before the poor,

To discover what we must do,

How to turn anxiety

Back into anger,

How to find our way home."

~ John O'Donohue,

from "To Bless the Space Between Us"

"No Special Hurry..."

“The world breaks everyone, and afterward many are strong in the broken places. But those that will not break it kills. It kills the very good and the very gentle and the very brave impartially. If you are none of these you can be sure it will kill you too, but there will be no special hurry.”

- Ernest Hemingway, “A Farewell To Arms”

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Freely download “A Farewell To Arms”, by Ernest Hemingway, here:

- https://pdfmania.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "Monkeys And Aliens! Fed Threatens A BIG Slowdown In The Economy And High Unemployment"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/21/22:

"Monkeys And Aliens! Fed Threatens A BIG 

Slowdown In The Economy And High Unemployment"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

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Market Data Center

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data

The Daily "Near You?"

Lawton, Oklahoma, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"For Whom the Bell Tolls"

"For Whom the Bell Tolls"

"No man is an island,

Entire of itself.

Each is a piece of the continent,

A part of the main.

If a clod be washed away by the sea,

Europe is the less.

As well as if a promontory were.

As well as if a manor of thine own

Or of thine friend's were.

Each man's death diminishes me,

For I am involved in mankind.

Therefore, send not to know

For whom the bell tolls,

It tolls for thee."

- John Donne

Canadian Prepper, "Urgent Warning: Prepare to Get Drafted for WW3"

Canadian Prepper, 9/21/22:

"Urgent Warning: Prepare to Get Drafted for WW3"

"Everything just changed as tensions 

escalate to a whole new level. Get Ready."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Economic Collapse Has Arrived In Germany. Will The U.S. Be Close Behind?"

"Economic Collapse Has Arrived In Germany. 

Will The U.S. Be Close Behind?"

by Michael Snyder

"Things are starting to get really crazy in Germany. The Germans are dealing with the worst inflation crisis that they have seen since the days of the Weimar Republic, and meanwhile economic activity is starting to shut down all over the nation. Of course other European countries are facing similar problems, but Germany was supposed to be the economic rock that the rest of Europe could always depend upon. Unfortunately, the decision by the Russians to cut off the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is hitting Germany extremely hard. If we could just get both sides to agree to end the war in Ukraine, that would greatly help matters, but that simply isn’t going to happen. In fact, it appears that Vladimir Putin has decided to greatly escalate matters, and the western powers will inevitably greatly escalate matters in response. What this means is that the economic turmoil that we are witnessing in Europe isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

This week, we got some inflation numbers out of Germany that are so high that it is difficult to believe that they are actually real…"German producer prices rose in August at the fastest rate since records began in 1949, data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed today, pointing to a further increase in consumer prices. Producer prices of industrial products rose by 45.8 percent compared to the same month of last year. Compared to July 2022, prices rose 7.9 percent."

Soaring energy prices on the back of Russia’s war against the Ukraine remain the main driver behind rising prices. If we continue to see monthly increases of around 8 percent, next year at this time we could be talking about a yearly jump of close to 100 percent. Wow. How bad do things have to get before we actually start using the term “hyperinflation”?

Energy prices are the biggest reason why inflation has gotten completely out of control, and the German government has been forced to nationalize a huge natural gas company in order to keep it from going under…"The German government is closing in on an agreement to nationalize gas giant Uniper SE, as Berlin moves to stave off a collapse of the country’s energy sector. A provisional agreement between the government, Uniper and its main shareholder, Finland’s Fortum Oyj, has been reached, according to people familiar with the situation. While contracts haven’t been signed, Berlin is aiming for an announcement later this week. According to the CEO of Uniper, the company has been losing about 100 million euros a day during this crisis."

Needless to say, the German government cannot save everyone, and so a lot of firms won’t survive this crisis at all. For example, a manufacturer that has been making toilet paper for Germans for nearly 100 years is now headed into insolvency…"Hakle has been a German household name since 1928, but the Duesseldorf-based toilet paper manufacturer said all it took was this summer’s gas price shock to drive it into insolvency."

Sadly, this is just the beginning. According to the German central bank, the nation is moving into a “broad-based and prolonged decline in economic output”…“Economic activity may pull back somewhat this quarter and shrink markedly in the autumn and winter months,” the central bank said, adding that it didn’t forecast this adverse scenario in a June report. Bundesbank continued: “There are mounting signs of a recession in the German economy in the sense of a clear, broad-based and prolonged decline in economic output.” It said a contraction is expected in the third quarter with deeper declines in economic activity in the fourth. “High inflation and uncertainty with regard to energy supply and its costs affect not only the gas and electricity-intensive industry and its export business and investments, but also private consumption and the service providers dependent on it,” the central bank said."

You can refer to such a scenario as a “recession” or a “depression” if it makes you feel better. I call it an economic collapse. The U.S. economy will soon be experiencing immense turmoil as well.According to billionaire Barry Sternlicht, the Fed’s exceedingly foolish policies are pushing us toward a “serious recession”…"In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday, Barry Sternlicht, the chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital, said he believes Americans are facing a major recession if the Federal Reserve proceeds with several more rate hikes as a means of curbing inflation, which is reportedly the central bank’s plan.

“The economy is braking hard,” Sternlicht told the financial news outlet, according to the Daily Caller. “If the Fed keeps this up, they are going to have a serious recession and people will lose their jobs.”

He is right on target, but instead of saying “people will lose their jobs” he should have noted that lots of people are already being laid off. This is something that I have been documenting on my website for quite some time, and this week we learned that Gap has decided to lay off hundreds of corporate workers…"Gap Inc. is cutting about 500 corporate jobs as the clothing retailer struggles with declining sales. The job cuts, which include open positions, will be primarily at Gap’s offices in San Francisco, New York and Asia and hit various departments, a representative for the retailer confirmed Tuesday. The moves were first reported by The Wall Street Journal."

Ouch. In this environment, very few workers are truly safe. At this point, even the entertainment industry is letting lots of people go…"The struggling TV and film industry continues to run face first into bad news. This week it was reported that Warner Bros. Discovery was firing 100 TV ad salespeople at the same time that Paramount has considered ending offering Showtime as a standalone service, Bloomberg reported. Netflix followed suit with their own layoffs, the report says. The company has reportedly let go hundreds of employees and abandoned some of its office space. At the same time, the firm’s stock price has collapsed and fallen more than 60% from its all time highs."

Back in 2008 and 2009, millions of Americans lost their jobs. Will we see something similar in the months ahead? And just like during “the Great Recession”, the housing market is really starting to slow down. In fact, we just learned that homebuilder confidence has now fallen for nine months in a row…"The confidence of builders of single-family houses fell again in September, the ninth month in a row of declines, “as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions, and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability,” the NAHB report said. With today’s index value of 46, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now below where it had been in May 2006, on the way down into the Housing Bust."

This time around, it won’t just be a few areas of the planet that suffer. At this moment we are literally witnessing economic implosions all over the planet, and the stage is being set for an immensely painful 2023. The one thing that could really turn things around would be peace.

Unfortunately, global leaders on both sides seem absolutely determined to drag us into the type of cataclysmic global conflict that I have been warning about for years. So there isn’t going to be peace, and that means that things are going to get really bad in 2023 and beyond.

But I also believe that you were put at this specific moment in history for a reason. It is when times are the darkest that the greatest good can be done, and that is something that we will all need to remember during the very dark times in front of us."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

"It Would Indeed..."