Thursday, August 26, 2021

"Why The Other Side Won’t Listen to Reason"

"Why The Other Side Won’t Listen to Reason"
by David Cain

"At some point during your first year as a human being, the adults throw a real curveball at you. They expect you to start understanding what right and wrong mean. These lessons come in the form of mysterious reactions that follow certain things you do. After you pull all the books from the bottom shelf onto the floor, quite a feat for a one year-old, they scold you for some reason. When you pee in the correct place, they praise you. It’s completely baffling, but over time you get a sense that adults are extremely preoccupied with classifying actions into two broad categories: okay and not okay, or good and bad.

You quickly gather this is how the world works. And there is some logic behind what’s rewarded and what’s punished: “bad” actions are usually (but not always) ones that hurt, annoy or inconvenience other people, and “good” actions usually (not always) help in some way, or at least don’t hurt anyone.

This classification system is so strongly emphasized by the adults that you develop a keen sense of it yourself. You see rights and wrongs everywhere, particularly where you stand to gain or lose something personally: in the fair distribution of treats, in acknowledgement for chores done, in which cartoon characters deserve to be happy (or in a police wagon) at the end of the episode. 

Seemingly everything is morally relevant. There are right and wrong ways to speak, play, fidget, ask for things, touch people, and express your feelings. The rules are endlessly detailed and idiosyncratic. There are right and wrong places to sit or stand, things to wear, things to stare at, even expressions to have on your face. Some acts are okay in one place and very bad somewhere else. The adults insist that navigating this sprawling bureaucracy is simple: just be good.

You make use of this system. You argue your case to your parents when your sibling takes something of yours, or plays with a coveted toy too long—if you feel slighted, there must be wrongdoing, and you say so, perhaps listing reasons why you’re right. You petition teachers to take action against other kids who are being greedy, annoying, or mean, and you defend yourself when you’re the one being accused.

There’s Something Fishy About the Way We Judge: By adulthood, morality has become such an intuitive part of our thinking that we barely realize when we’re making a moral judgment.

Hundreds or thousands of times a day we assess the character of another person. We feel we know enough to commend or condemn (usually condemn) a person from the way they park, a word they chose to use in their comment, the state of their front lawn, how they stand in a queue, what they laugh at, where and when they look at their mobile phones, how long they take to get to the point of their anecdote, or any of ten thousand other morally salient micro-actions.

Our moral sense works with great speed and force. Every news article - even the headline alone -gives us a strong, immediate, and seemingly unmistakable sense of which are the good and bad parties involved. Virtually every time we feel annoyed, we reflexively assert some wrongdoing on the part of another human being, even if it’s someone we’ve never seen. If service is slow, some employee is being lazy or inconsiderate. If traffic is crawling it’s because the city always schedules construction work at such stupid times. If an item’s price is unexpectedly high, some greedy CEO is getting paid too much.

There’s something fishy about all this moralizing. We treat our moral feelings and judgments as though they’re truly all-important; seemingly, nothing deserves as much energy and attention as determining the right and wrong of everything done and said in the human world, and lamenting that world’s failure to meet our idea of what’s right. (For endless examples, just check Twitter.) Yet for all their importance, we’re extremely flippant with our moral judgments. We make them all day long, with ease and even a kind of pleasure, and very little second-guessing. Maddeningly, other people have almost perfectly opposite positions on the same moral issues - drug policy, immigration, pornography, whether mayo belongs in guacamole - and they cast their judgments with the all the same ease and certitude.

You’d think that if determining right and wrong were truly what’s important to us, we’d be far more careful about making judgments. We’d want to gather a lot of information before saying anything. We’d seek opposing viewpoints and try to understand them. We’d offer people the benefit of the doubt whenever possible. We’d be very wary of our initial emotions around the topic, and very interested in how our personal interests might be skewing our conclusions. We’d refrain from making conclusions at all if we didn’t need to.

In other words, we’d employ the same reserved, dispassionate, self-scrutinizing ethic we use to examine questions about anything else: physics, history, biology, engineering, business, or any other arena of understanding where premature conclusions can create a big problem. We’d have a keen, ongoing interest in learning how we might be wrong.

But we’re not like this at all. We make moral conclusions freely, immediately, and without self-scrutiny, recruiting as much emotional tilt as possible. We dismiss counterpoints reflexively, as though it’s dangerous to even consider changing our minds. We only rarely admit that an issue is too opaque or complex to be sure what to think.

Why are we so smart and careful when it comes to figuring things out in most areas of inquiry, and so dumb and impulsive when it comes to moral questions, which are supposedly the most important ones to get right?

Why We’re So Stubborn: Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt sheds a lot of light on our confused moral psychology in his book, "The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided By Politics and Religion."  It’s a fascinating read, but the main punchline is that our moral sensitivity didn’t evolve in order to make us good at determining right and wrong. It evolved to help us survive and thrive in highly social environments.

Our moral feelings are quick and reactive because they developed to aid us in real-time social interactions, not in careful, solitary periods of reflection. These feelings are often conflicting and illogical because they adapted to meet a number of different social goals:

• Our desire to protect the vulnerable, and our hatred for cruelty and carelessness, adapted to motivate us to keep children safe at all costs, and keep potentially dangerous people away
• Our resentment for cheating and unfairness adapted to help us avoid getting exploited by the rest of our group
• Our respect for loyalty, and our fear of betrayal, evolved to help us form coalitions, and identify disloyal people before they make trouble
• Our attitudes towards authority, and those who subvert it, conferred an advantage at positioning ourselves within social hierarchies
• Our moralizing around cleanliness and the sanctity of bodies, sex, and bodily functions, adapted to help us avoid infection and disease 
• It’s no wonder our moral intuitions are so strong, quick and often thoughtless. They are essentially survival reflexes, conditioned by our upbringing and our instincts.

Our moral reasoning - our capacity to explain why something is right or wrong - comes only after our emotional intuitions, if at all, and is tuned for persuading others of our value to the tribe, not for helping us find the most sensible moral stances. Haidt describes our moral reasoning as working much like a press secretary or company spokesperson - its purpose is to justify positions and actions already taken, using any explanation that sounds passably good in the moment, true or not.

Note that none of the above social goals require our moral feelings to be fair or logically sound, and in fact, that can be disadvantageous - a tribe that viewed all outsiders as predators likely would have protected its children better than a tribe that was most concerned with never falsely accusing someone of being dangerous.

In other words, our moral intuitions are strongly tuned to make us groupish and tribal, not even-handed and insightful. And our moral reasoning is tuned more for soliciting approval from others than for actually discovering moral truths.

This explains why we’re so susceptible to rhetoric, prejudice, selective hearing, and fake news. It also explains why it’s strangely pleasurable to take hard moral stands, no matter how poor or nonexistent the reasoning behind them - hard stands, declared publicly, reliably generate a small flood of praise and approval from the tribe that shares those positions.

You can see what a powder keg this moral psychology is liable to create in an increasingly global, internet-connected society, composed of people from many different backgrounds, all of whom enjoy getting Retweeted, Liked, and Favorited.

It’s why, when it comes to politics, the other side simply doesn’t listen to reason. Of course, all of us are on someone’s other side."

"I Know Why You Did It..."

"There are of course those who do not want us to speak. I suspect even now, orders are being shouted into telephones, and men with guns will soon be on their way. Why? Because while the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn't there? Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission. How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn't be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, and in your panic you turned to the government. They promised you order, they promised you peace, and all they demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent."
- "V For Vendetta", slightly modified.

"Maybe..."

“We’ve all heard the warnings and we’ve ignored them. We push our luck. We roll the dice. It’s human nature. When we’re told not to touch something we usually do even if we know better. Maybe because deep down, we’re just asking for trouble.”
- “Meredith Grey”, “Gray’s Anatomy”

"The Brutal Truth About Violence When The SHTF"

"The Brutal Truth About Violence When The SHTF"
Selco interviewed by Daisy Luther

"Are you prepared for the extreme violence that is likely to come your way if the SHTF? No matter what your plan is, it’s entirely probable that at some point, you’ll be the victim of violence or have to perpetrate violence to survive. As always, Selco is our go-to guy on SHTF reality checks and this thought-provoking interview will shake you to your core.

If you don’t know Selco, he’s from Bosnia and he lived through a year in a city that was blockaded with no utilities, no deliveries of supplies, and no services. In his interviews, he shares what the scenarios the rest of us theorize about were REALLY like.  He mentioned to me recently that most folks aren’t prepared for the violence that is part and parcel of a collapse, which brings us to today’s interview.

How prevalent was violence when the SHTF in Bosnia? It was wartime and chaos, from all conflicts in those years in the Balkan region Bosnian conflict was most brutal because of multiple reasons, historical, political and other. To simplify the explanation why violence was common and very brutal, you need to picture a situation where you are “bombarded” with huge amount of information (propaganda) which instills in you very strong feelings of fear and hate. Out of fear and hate, violence grows easy and fast, and over the very short period of time you see how people around you (including you) do things that you could not imagine before.

I can say that violence was almost an everyday thing in the whole spectrum of different activities because it was a fight for survival. Again, whenever (and wherever) you put people in a region without enough resources, you can expect violence.

We were living a normal life, and then suddenly we were thrown in a way of living where if you could not “negotiate” something with someone, you solve the problem by launching a rocket from an RPG through the window of his living room. Hate stripped down the layers of humanity and suddenly it was “normal” to level an apartment building with people inside with shells from a tank or form private prisons with imprisoned civilians for slave work or sex slaves.

Nothing that I saw or read before could have prepared me for the level of violence and blindness to it, for the lives of kids, elders, civilians, and the innocent. Again, the thing that is important for readers is that we were a modern society one day, and then in few weeks it turned into carnage. Do not make the mistake of saying “it cannot happen here” because I made that mistake too. Do not underestimate power of propaganda, fear, hate, and the lowest human instincts, no matter how modern and good your society is right now and how deeply you believe that “it can not happen here”.

You’ve mentioned warlords and gangs in several of your articles. Were they responsible for the majority of the violence or was it hungry families? Fighting of the armies through the whole period of war brings violence in terms of constant shelling from a distance from different kind of weapons. For example a few multiple rocket launchers (VBR) could bring in 30 seconds the destruction in an area of 3-4 apartment buildings, and being there in that moment and surviving it gives you a completely new view on life. Snipers were a constant threat and over time you simply grow a way of living that you constant scan area in front of you where your next steps gonna be. Are you gonna be visible and from where? Etc.

Most brutal violence was actually lawlessness and complete lack of order between different factions and militias, so in some periods there were militias or gangs who simply ruled the cities or part of the city where they were absolutely masters of everything in terms of deciding of taking someone’s life. In lawlessness, you as one person could be really small and not interesting, or join some bigger group of people to be stronger, some family or militia or gang.

An example of a gang would be group of people of some 300 or 500 people who “officially” were a unit or militia and operate for some faction, but in reality they operate mostly for themselves. That included owning part of the black market, having prison (for forced labor or ransom), attacking people and houses for resources, smuggling people from dangerous areas. Violence from those kinds of group was the most immediate violence, the most visible in terms of SHTF talking. If those people came on your door you could obey, fight, or negotiate, but mostly you could not not ask for help from any kind of authority, because there was no real authority.

In any society, no matter where you are living, there are a great number of people who are waiting for the SHTF to go out and do violent things. Small time criminals or simply violent persons who are not openly violent because system is there to punish them for that. It is like that. Some gang leaders that I knew were actually completely sick people with a strange type of charisma that makes people follow them, weird situations that can happen only in a real collapse. They are people who just waited for their time to rise. Those kinds of people together with criminal organization that are already there in any city in the world will be the backbone of SHTF gangs.

Who were the most likely victims? A very simple answer would be that the most likely victims were people who had interesting things without enough defense. But it was not always that simple. For example one of the first houses that got raided in my neighborhood, right at the beginning of collapse while there was still some kind of order, was a rich family’s home. They had a nice house with bars on the windows, a pretty good setup for defense, and they had enough people inside so they could give pretty good resistance to the mob. But they got raided simply because they were known that they are rich, so they were attacked with enough force to be overwhelmed.

It was not only about how much manpower you had and how well-organized defense of your home was, it was also about how juicy a target you were. If you are faced with 150 angry people attacking your home because they are sure you have good stuff inside your chances are low, no matter how good and tough you are. People who were alone were a pretty easy target and old people without support of family or friends.

It was not always about killing someone or violence. For example, if you were alone and without resources but you had something else valuable like some kind of skill or knowledge you could easily be “recruited” for some faction or group, not by your will of course.

What were some ways to prevent yourself from becoming a victim of violence? How do you recommend that people prepare themselves for the possibility of violence? It can be done in steps, or in layers:

• Do not be interesting (or attract attention) when the SHTF. This means a lot of things, for this article I can give a few examples with shortened explanations because it is a huge topic:

• Do not look like a prepper (before or after SHTF). There is no sense in announcing that you are prepping for EMP, civil collapse, apocalypse, or whatever. With that you are risking the probability that when the SHTF, people will remember that you have interesting things in your home. Your home should look ordinary. For example, if you are living in the city on a street where all houses look similar, there is not  much sense in making your home look like a fortress. You’ll just attract attention.

Your defense should be based on more subtle means. Some examples are having means to reinforce doors and windows quickly when you need it, or to reinforce them from inside. Make changes in your yard to funnel possible attackers where you want them to be (trees, fence, bush…). You can make your home look abandoned or already looted.

• Think about what survival is! Survival is about staying alive, it is not about being comfortable at the expense of losing your life. I have seen many times people lose their lives simply because they were too attached to their belongings (house, car, land, goods…) so they simply did not want to leave something and run in a particular moment.

• Everything can be earned and bought again except life. Forget about statements like “I will defend it with my life” or “over my dead body” or similar because the real SHTF is usually not heroic or noble. It is hard and brutal. When you are gone you are gone and there might be nobody to take care of your family just because you have been stubborn or trusted in movies when it came to violence. To rephrase it: Be ready to leave your home in a split second if that means you and your family will survive, no matter how many good things you have stored there.

• Be mentally ready for violence: In a way, it is impossible to be ready for violence, especially widespread violence when the SHTF, but you can minimize shock when that happens with some things. If you are not familiar with what violence is, you can try to get yourself close” to it today (in normal times). It can be done, for example, by doing some voluntary work for example in a local hospital, ER or similar… or simply by working with homeless people. Sounds maybe strange but activities like this can get you a bit of a feeling of what it is all about, not to mention that you can learn some practical and useful skills for SHTF.

• Have means and skills  (physically) to defend – or to do violence: No matter how old or young you are, your gender or religion I assure you that you are capable of doing violence. It is only a matter of the situation and how far you are going to be pushed. It is not just “some people are capable of violence.” Everybody is capable. Not everybody enjoys doing it or is willing to do it so easily.

In today (normal times) you can learn some violence skills and you should do it, again no matter if you are a woman or old or young. You should own a weapon and know how to use it. You should practice with it, or have at least some basic knowledge about hand-to-hand combat. The worst case scenario is to have a weapon that you try for the first time when SHTF.

Be familiar with your means for defense, let your family members know what they need to do in case of attack of your home, have plan, and go through it. Only through practice will you minimize chances for mistakes.

• Use common sense: I know lot of survivalists almost dream about how they are going to use weapons against bad guys when SHTF, and that they will be something like super heroes from movies, saving innocents and killing villains. Truth is that in a real collapse, a lot of things are kind of blurred and you are not sure who the bad guys are. Good guys turn out to be lunatic gang members who want to bring food to their kids. There are no super heroes when SHTF, and if some of them show up they end up dead quickly.

There is only you and your skills and mindset and what you prepared. Use violence as a last resort because of the simple fact that by using violence you are risking of getting killed or hurt. Remember when SHTF there is maybe no doctor or hospital to take care of your wound. It is a time when even a small cut can eventually kill you through infection and lack of proper care.

I’m a single mom with a household full of girls. In an SHTF situation, what would our best strategies be to remain safe? Just like I have mentioned before, strategy is always same for any part of survival, and shooting from the rifle is pretty similar no matter are you man or woman. Being single mom with household full of girls on first look make you as a ideal target in some situations, but we are talking here in prepper terms so there is no reason not to be perfectly well prepared as a single mom with girls.

But yes I admit it is not perfect situation, even if you are prepared well, some things are sure, you need to connect with other people even more. House with couple of girls will always look like easy prey for some people. It is like that.

Were people in the city safer than people in the country? Can you tell us more about rural living during this time? In my case definitely no. In the essence it always come to the resources and people. City meant more people less resources, country (rural) meant less people more resources, and because that level of violence simply was lower. That was most important reason.

There are few more reasons why it was much better in the country. People in the country (rural settings) were much more “connected to ground”  they were more tough if you like, they grew their own food, had cattle, lived more simple life prior SHTF and when everything collapsed they had less problems getting use to it. Yes they also did not have electricity and phones, running water or connection to other places but they adapted easier to the new life because they had more useful skills then people in the city. Life was harder for them too than prior to the collapse, but they had means to get resources: land, woods, river…

Another thing is that people in small rural communities “in the country” were more connected to each other, people knew their neighborhood and some things were easier to organize, like community security watch, help in case of diseases and similar.

What types of weapons did people have for self-defense? It was different political system prior the collapse where it was not so usual to own a weapon legally. And to own one illegally could mean a lot of troubles. Right prior to SHTF, it became possible to buy different weapons on the black market but still, a majority of people did not own weapons. When it all collapsed, it was possible to get a weapon through trade.

Because of the military doctrine here prior to the collapse, we used “East Bloc” weapons. A favorite was AK-47 in all different kind of editions, or older weapons like M-48 rifle, SKS rifle, 22 and similar. People used what they had, so in one period you would be lucky if you had any kind of pistol and knife. Later through the different channels weapon become more available so people had them more. A lot of that was actually junk that some warlords somehow “imported”. Weapons 50-60 years old without proper ammunition, or not in operating condition. A lot of people simply did not have a clue how to use any kind of weapon so a lot of accidental deaths happened.

I remember people storming abandoned army barracks that was mostly looted, but they found in one building a lot of RPGs while other part of the same building was burning. Two guys were trying to figure out a single-use RPG, and while they were messing with it clearly not knowing how that thing worked, they accidentally armed it and launched a rocket that flew through the crowd, not hurting anyone and exploding in wall 100 meters from where they stood. They were smiling, clearly happy because they thought they figured out how that thing worked.

What weapons do you suggest to have for SHTF? It is a never-ending discussion and a favorite prepper topic, and I must say that whole discussion is overrated. I have used them in a real situation, and tried and tested lot of different kind of weapons and what works for me may simply not work for you. For example, here for me good choice is AK-47 rifle, maybe for you wherever you are it is very bad choice.

Good advice is: you need to have a weapon that most people have around you because of multiple reasons: spare parts, repairing, ammunition availability, possibility that you can pick that rifle from other people and you know how to use it. What caliber and similar is a matter of discussion again. I am talking from the point of owning a rifle. Another thing is that you need to know how that weapon works. Luckily, most of my readers live in an area where gun laws are great comparing to region where I am. You have much more choices when it comes to owning a weapon and practicing with it. Use that.

And do not forget that using a weapon in a real life situation is not like shooting at beer bottles with your friends after a barbecue. In real life you might be in a situation to use a weapon while you are tired, dirty, and hungry and while someone is screaming next to you. It is going to be maybe when you are not ready to do that, maybe in pitch dark, maybe after you have been awake for 48 hours. At least think about that.

When should you use violence? Contrary to some popular beliefs in the prepper community, the point is to use violence only as a last solution. The reason is as I mentioned already, the risk that you can be hurt or killed too, but also once you do violence you change your own rules, or push it more forward, and it is easy to get lost in violence. There are consequences to that, and you are not going to be the same person ever again.

Violence is a tool, not a toy. You need to know how to use it as best as possible, but also to avoid using it when it is not necessary. It is a good idea to set up a clear set of rules (mentally too) when you are gonna use violence and to try to stick to it. For example you will use weapon if someone tries to break your home and attack you, and you need to be ready to do that without hesitation.

What else should we know about post-collapse violence? Think with your head and research. One thing that is absolutely important when it comes to understanding how violent it is going to be and what can you expect in your own case of SHTF, is to understand how much media can influence people in making their decisions about violence.

In my case, the media built up situation where people feared so much from other people that they actually hated them. They hated them so much that they actually strip them down from humanity. In a real-life example, it works in a way that people killed other people, including kids and women, because they hated them so much because media told them.

It may look ridiculous and not possible to you, and you might again think “that can not happen here” but please trust your own resources, look for independent information, not mainstream media, in order to get the right information about what is really happening in the beginning of collapse. Do not be pulled into “popular opinion” just because the “man from TV” (whoever he might be) told you so. It is easier today. Because of the internet, you have much more choices for correct information than in my time. But still be careful, you might find yourself rioting together with 500 people just because you trusted some media."


More information about Selco: Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today. He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations like Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months. Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.
Read more of Selco’s articles here: https://shtfschool.com/blog/
Related:
Laurence Gonzales, "The 12 Rules of Survival"

"The Shortages Are Global, And We Are Being Warned That They Will Intensify"

"The Shortages Are Global,
 And We Are Being Warned That They Will Intensify"
by Michael Snyder

"The global economy was supposed to be getting back to “normal” by now, but instead more problems are erupting with each passing day. As I write this article, supply chains all over the planet are in a state of chaos. The worldwide computer chip shortage is making things very difficult for thousands upon thousands of manufacturers, the process of moving products across our oceans has become insanely expensive and is often plagued by horrendous delays, and a lack of truck drivers is causing enormous headaches when it comes to transporting goods to retailers and consumers in a timely manner. We have never seen anything like this before, and at this point even CNN is admitting that “the disruption to global supply chains is getting worse”

The vast network of ports, container vessels and trucking companies that moves goods around the world is badly tangled, and the cost of shipping is skyrocketing. That’s troubling news for retailers and holiday shoppers. More than 18 months into the pandemic, the disruption to global supply chains is getting worse, spurring shortages of consumer products and making it more expensive for companies to ship goods where they’re needed.

Earlier this year, some of the economic optimists were projecting that we would experience a tremendous “economic boom” during the second half of 2021. But now we are facing empty shelves, shortages and major headaches in the months ahead. One shipping executive that was interviewed by CNN says that things won’t get any better until “the first quarter of 2022 at the earliest”…"Shipping companies expect the global crunch to continue. That’s massively increasing the cost of moving cargo and could add to the upward pressure on consumer prices. “We currently expect the market situation only to ease in the first quarter of 2022 at the earliest,” Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said in a recent statement."

Here in the U.S., quite a few experts are now making very bleak predictions about the upcoming holiday season. But we are definitely not alone. Over in the UK, it is being reported that the “worst supply-chain crisis since the 1970s” could potentially “ruin Christmas”.

One of the big problems that the British are facing is an unprecedented shortage of truck drivers and warehouse workers. Business leaders are begging for more EU workers to be allowed into the country, because they believe that will help to alleviate the crisis. Empty shelves and shortages are now a daily reality in the UK, and some large fast food chains are now being forced to completely drop certain items from their menus… "Gaps on supermarket shelves have been spotted across the country due to a combination of factors, including lorry driver shortages and Covid."

Supplier issues have also led to shortages at fast food chains like McDonald’s, Nandos and KFC, with some items missing from menus and branches closed. Greggs is the latest to say that it’s short on food faves and Costa Coffee has reduced its menu due to the supply chain chaos. Could you imagine going into a McDonald’s and not being able to order a milkshake?

Sadly, that has now become a reality at every single location in the United Kingdom… "McDonald’s says it has pulled milkshakes from the menu in all 1,250 of its British restaurants because of supply problems stemming from a shortage of truck drivers. The fast-food chain says it is also experiencing shortages of bottled drinks."

Here in the United States, we are dealing with similar issues. At this point, it is being reported that finding new truck drivers to hire in this country is “next to impossible”…"Finding truck drivers is “next to impossible,” he said, while freight costs are rising daily. The company’s orders are arriving late and consequently facing delays in being sent to customers. On the outbound side, on-time deliveries are still above 50% but have fallen from the usual rate of more than 90%. “We all thought it would be over by now. It’s just one thing after another,” he said. “This is going to be the norm for a while.”

For decades, we have been taking our truck drivers for granted. We pay them poorly, we treat them like dirt, and we make them work ridiculously long hours. But without truck drivers, our country simply cannot function. These days, most young people don’t want jobs that require a lot of hard, physical work and that don’t pay very well. Instead, they would rather make money producing Tik Tok videos or becoming Instagram influencers.

Traditionally, truck drivers have been strong, physical men with traditional values. Of course our society likes to demonize such individuals these days, but maybe this crisis will get everyone to understand that we actually need them.

Even if we had enough truck drivers, we would still be facing a wide range of shortages because of the global shortage of computer chips…"A global shortage of computer chips is causing major headaches for American manufacturers. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the disruption of supply chains and manufacturing the world over. Manufacturers of computer chips in Asia have been especially hard hit. And that means companies that make products that rely on such chips are feeling the pinch."

As I have warned previously, the computer chip shortage is causing massive headaches for thousands of other industries. We should have never become so dependent on chip production from Asia, and now we are paying a great price.

Yesterday, I discussed the fact that Kamala Harris is warning parents to buy their Christmas presents now because of the severe shortages that are looming on the horizon. On Fox News, contributor Leo Terrell said that this “sounds like a very dangerous warning sign”… "Fox News contributor Leo Terrell expressed concern on “Fox & Friends” Tuesday that Democrats are aiming to shut down the U.S. economy again after Vice President Kamala Harris advised shoppers to consider buying Christmas presents now due to global supply chain issues.

"LEO TERRELL: That scares me because that sounds like shutdown, that sounds like we’re going to expect that the economy is going to basically be locked down again. And that’s frightening. Again, the Democrats have used the pandemic to control Americans. And basically that sounds like a very dangerous warning sign."

Yes, I would definitely categorize her statement as a “warning sign”. This is not going to be a “normal” holiday season. And 2022 will definitely not be “normal” either. We have moved into crazy times, and they are only going to get crazier. A lot of people didn’t want to listen to warnings from people like me at first, but now seeing empty shelves and shortages is starting to wake some of them up. Our economic infrastructure is being shaken, and many are starting to realize that the “invincible” U.S. economy is not actually so invincible after all."

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 8/26/21"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/26/21:
"MELTDOWN: Its Getting Worse RAPIDLY, 
And THIS Is What's Coming Next"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/26/21:
"The Fed. ADMITS 'Inflation Is Not Moderating'"



"How It Really Is"

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

"It's Too Late To Save Christmas And The Economy; Leaving California For Kentucky?"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 8/25/21:
"It's Too Late To Save Christmas And The Economy; 
Leaving California For Kentucky?"

"Empty Shelves, Severe Shortages And Widespread Crop Failures Are Ahead In The Fall Of 2021"

Full screen recommended.
"Empty Shelves, Severe Shortages And Widespread
 Crop Failures Are Ahead In The Fall Of 2021"
by Epic Economist

"Morale is plummeting all across the nation and the latest events are only making the overall mood of our society increasingly sour. Just as we thought it was finally ending, the health crisis is starting to become a major concern once again. At the same time, the Afghanistan crisis is probably the greatest embarrassment in modern American history, and it's making Biden's approval sink like a rock as it becomes clear that he is completely incompetent and extremely impulsive when it comes to making important decisions. And very soon Americans will be even more stressed out about the consequences of his reckless measures because as fall months approach, more shortages will emerge, and our store shelves are going to get significantly emptier, especially considering that supply chain problems are just one factor contributing to the lack of everyday products. It looks like we're also headed to a very bad harvest season. Unfortunately, this is what the new normal looks like, and it's not as rosy as most people were expecting.

Data released by the Department of Agriculture suggested that we might lose a big part of our spring wheat harvest this fall due to dry weather conditions. About 63% of the U.S. spring wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition, versus 6% at this time last year. This means that our agricultural production isn't going to meet expectations and our domestic food supply chain will be just as strained as the global food supply chain.

Global hunger will continue to spread and rapidly grow, and that's extremely concerning because global hunger has already been rising at a very alarming rate. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, global hunger increased by 118 million people in 2021, the highest increase since 2006. And now that disasters and rising prices are preventing large populations from accessing food supplies, food insecurity is spreading like a virus. According to the UN food agency’s price index, which measures a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat, and sugar, world food prices rose 33.9% year-on-year in June. The UN Food Agency highlighted that the global food price index hit the highest level since 2011. Moreover, food insecurity increased by 40% compared to a year ago.

Although many Americans still think our country might be immune to this sort of unrest, they should start thinking twice and preparing for the worse now that even the vice President is warning of imminent shortages at the stores. While she was in Singapore this week, Kamala Harris specifically cautioned us about what is coming in the next few months. “The stories that we are now hearing about the caution that if you want to have Christmas toys for your children, it might now be might be the time to start buying them, because the delay may be many, many months,” she said. It's safe to say that when Kamala Harris starts sounding just like doomsday preppers, then you know that things are about to get really ugly.

At this point, empty shelves and widespread shortages are already being reported all over the nation. Some reports have been compiling photos sent by people from around the country showing us empty shelves, signs informing customers about product shortages and purchasing limits, and proving without a doubt that these shortages are not going away, and are in fact, getting worse by the day. The photos also prove that this is not a phenomenon that is just occurring in a few areas. It's everywhere in the country, and sadly, this is just the beginning.

The coming holiday season is expected to dramatically worsen the shortages, and supply chain woes are only becoming more widespread. Several grocery stores are panic-buying food to ensure inventory, but the situation has spiraled out of control and it has gotten to a point where the largest U.S. food distributors simply cannot fulfill all of the orders. According to Bloomberg, some of the largest U.S. food distributors are “reporting difficulties in fulfilling orders as a lack of workers weighs on the supply chain.”

The price increases we are about to see will reach absurd levels very quickly. If you're a subscriber to our channel, you probably won't be surprised by this because we have been sharing warnings that this would happen for months. But most Americans will be absolutely shocked by the new reality they're about to face, and we can only assume that more panic and chaos will sweep across our stores once they realize that shortages will persist for much longer than they were expecting. Sadly, a big part of the population is still thinking that a great era of prosperity is right at the corner, but they will soon realize that what is coming for us is a terrible nightmare."

"$834 Million Every Hour"

"$834 Million Every Hour"
by Brian Maher

"The eyes glaze, the jaw drops, the legs wobble… and the mind reels... The world’s central banks have printed $834 million each and every hour of each and every day... for the past 18 months… to keep the global economy up and going. That is correct. $834 million an hour - every hour, 18 months running. This we have on the high authority of Bank of America, relayed here by Bloomberg: "Imagine spending $834 million an hour for 18 months. That’s how much central banks have spent buying bonds since the pandemic hit, according to Bank of America strategists, who estimate the Fed alone has put in $4 trillion."

We cannot imagine spending $834 million an hour for 18 months. Nor can we imagine the Standard & Poor’s 500 doubling since its pandemic lows. But the facts are the facts. And the facts are extravagant. Not since the Second World War has the S&P doubled across so short a space - 354 trading days.

As Goes the Balance Sheet, so Goes the Stock Market: The stock market and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet are mirrors. The movement in one replicates perfectly in the other. They may appear as two. But they are one. More money has poured into stock funds within the past several months than the previous 12 years combined.

If market cap ranges between 50% and 75% of GDP, the market is considered undervalued - in the general. Between 75% and 90% is considered fairly valued. Between 90% and 115%, overvalued. What is today’s market cap-to-GDP ratio? 205% - a record. That is, stocks are obscenely overvalued as history runs.

Only a $40 trillion economy would justify today’s gargantuan valuations. The United States does not run a $40 trillion economy. It runs perhaps a $21 trillion economy. Adds Bloomberg, by way of fantastic understatement: "It’s a statistic that speaks to the unprecedented wall of money that kept companies afloat during lockdowns and sparked the biggest stock market rally of a generation."

The Choo-Choo Keeps Rolling: The biggest stock market rally of a generation pushed on again today. The Dow Jones stretched 39 points ahead… to close trading at 35,405. The S&P gained 10 points today, the Nasdaq 22. Meantime, 10-year Treasury yields went running ahead to 1.34% - a handsome distance. Gold ran the wrong way, backward, losing $16.50 today. Bitcoin did laps and laps around the ancient metal, gaining $420.

The rah-rah men are yelling about the stock market’s lovely spree. Fresh vistas are in sight, they insist. They are advising you to push all caution out of the way… and go plunging in. Should you - go plunging in? The question is of course a leading question. It very nearly answers itself.

Practically Guaranteed to Lose Money: Stock market valuations are by certain measures the highest in history. That is, investors are paying more and more for each dollar of profit. The higher the valuations, the lower your chances in the stock market. Explains Mr. Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice: "Starting valuations have much to do with future return expectations. What is often forgotten by investors, especially during robust bull markets, is the subsequent and inevitable bear market."

Alas, the Federal Reserve’s tricks and gimmicks prevented a healthful valuation resetting: "While the jump in earnings and profits surged from the pandemic lows, valuations were not allowed to revert, as would typically be the case during a recession. If valuations corrected during the pandemic-driven shutdown, as prices fell and earnings surged, a more sustainable case might exist. However, the earnings recovery got absorbed by the speculative, liquidity-driven market surge. Such leaves the markets vulnerable to a disappointment in earnings, a slowing of economic growth, or a reduction in liquidity flows into the markets."

Stocks Will Go Nowhere for 20 Years?Today’s preposterous valuations suggest stocks will return negative 2.9% per year across the next decade - dividends included. And over 20 years? Sourpuss analyst John Hussman believes that the S&P may jog in place for much of them: "From this particular starting point, I expect that the S&P 500 will go nowhere for something approaching 20 years."

We do not know where the S&P 500 will trade in 20 years, or 10 years, or three minutes. Yet this we do know - or at least believe powerfully: The stock market is an ingenious device… constructed to inflict the greatest suffering upon the most people… within the least amount of time.

Warns former Securities and Exchange Commissioner Arthur Levitt: "While the temptations are great, and the pressures strong, illusions in numbers are only that - ephemeral, and ultimately self-destructive." (We acknowledge Mr. Roberts for the reference).

Dispelling the Illusions: Let us now penetrate the veil of numerical illusions — the ephemeral and ultimately self-destructive numerical illusions. Here is the substance beneath and within the illusions: Last week Nasdaq components turned in 350 fresh lows. We are informed that is the highest figure since last March 2020 - when the stock market was a howling bedlam of terror. Yet the Nasdaq presently bangs along at record levels. How? We must conclude a limited number of draft horses are hauling the cargo, doing duty for the laggards.

Mr. Larry McDonald of Bear Traps is with us: "This speaks to how mega cap equities are the only reason the market continues to trade at the highs. There is significant weakness beneath the surface. That is, there is significant weakness beneath the gaudy and illusory surface."

“Poor Risk Reward Setup”: But it is not merely the topheavy Nasdaq that is straining under the burden. Mr. McDonald: "In May, with the S&P 500 on all time highs, there were 300 to 550 NYSE stocks at new 52 week highs. In June it was 200 to 300. In August it had been 90 to 120. Despite the strong rally on Friday, there were just 32 (!) new fifty two week highs set."

You therefore have a “poor risk reward set up” on your outstretched hands: "This shows an incredible loss of breadth in the equity market. Index strength is being led by fewer and fewer names. A poor risk reward set up." Is this the description of market health? We do not believe it is. How much longer can the Clydesdales push on… before depleting their steam… and announcing a halt? As always, we offer no answer. Yet we hazard these wagon-pullers require rest sorely. And there are presently no replacements..."

Musical Interlude: Disturbed "The Sound Of Silence"

Full screen recommended.
Disturbed "The Sound Of Silence"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In silhouette against a crowded star field along the tail of the arachnalogical constellation Scorpius, this dusty cosmic cloud evokes for some the image of an ominous dark tower.
In fact, clumps of dust and molecular gas collapsing to form stars may well lurk within the dark nebula, a structure that spans almost 40 light-years across this gorgeous telescopic portrait. Known as a cometary globule, the swept-back cloud, is shaped by intense ultraviolet radiation from the OB association of very hot stars in NGC 6231, off the upper edge of the scene. That energetic ultraviolet light also powers the globule's bordering reddish glow of hydrogen gas. Hot stars embedded in the dust can be seen as bluish reflection nebulae. This dark tower, NGC 6231, and associated nebulae are about 5,000 light-years away."

Chet Raymo, “Cosmic View”

“Cosmic View”
by Chet Raymo

“When writing about Philip and Phylis Morrison’s “Powers of Ten” the other day I found I had made the following notation in the flyleaf, perhaps a dozen or more years ago:

Britannica
 32 volumes
 1000 pages per vol
 1200 words per page
 5 letters/wd
 = 200 million letters. So, 200 million letters in the 32 volume set of the Encyclopedia Britannica. Why was I making that estimate? I can think of several possibilities. Perhaps…

1. I was making a comparison with the number of nucleotide pairs in the human DNA; that is, the number of steps- ATTGCCCTAA, etc.- on the double-helix. If the information on the human genome- an arm’s length of DNA in every human cell- were written out in ordinary type, it would fill 15 sets of the Encyclopedia Britannica. Nearly 500 thick volumes of information labeled YOU. Think of that for a moment. Fifteen 32-volume sets of the Encyclopedia Britannica in every invisibly-small cell of your body. And every time a cell reproduces, all of that information has to be transcribed correctly. Did I say the other day that it took a semester to stretch the imagination to grasp the universe of the galaxies? It could take another semester to stretch the imagination to grasp the scale of the molecular machinery that makes our bodies work.

Or maybe…

2. I was trying to give an insight into the complexity of the human brain. There are something like 100 billion nerve cells in the brain. That’s equivalent to the number of letters in 500 sets of the Britannica! Each many-fingered neuron connects to hundreds of other neurons, and each synaptic connection might be in one of many levels of excitation. I’ll let you calculate the number of potential states of the human brain. We’ve left behind the realm of Britannica. Even talking of libraries would be insufficient. I was marveling here recently about the amount of digital memory Google must command to store all of those 360-degree Street View images from all over the planet, all of it instantly retrievable by anyone with access to a computer and the internet. I imagined banks and banks of electronics in some cavernous building in California. Big deal! I’m sitting here right now in the college Commons and I can bring to mind street views of every place I’ve lived since I was three or four years old.

By the way…

3. The number of letters in 500 sets of the Britannica is about the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.

And…”

The Poet: Dylan Thomas, "Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

"Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night"

"Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light."

- Dylan Thomas

Musical Interlude: 2002, "We Meet Again"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "We Meet Again"

The Daily "Near You?"

East Hampton, Connecticut, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Some Things Are Best Left Alone"

"Some Things Are Best Left Alone"
By Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "A great headline from yesterday’s AP: "US Troops Surge Evacuations Out of Kabul But Threats Persist." Yes, U.S. troops are launching a major “reverse assault”… surging out of Afghanistan like water down a toilet drain. But at least they tried!

In some countries, women appear on the beach – in public – with practically no clothes on. In others, such as Afghanistan under the Taliban, they cover up, head to toe. Which one is right? We don’t know. We only know which we like. And even as to that – seeing the state of some of the people we see on the beach – we have our doubts. But it is not for us to tell other people what to wear. There are some things we can change for the better. And some things that are better left alone. Today, we explore how to tell the difference.

Down the Drain: And here’s a headline story from yesterday’s Washington Post… giving us advance warning: "House passes $3.5 trillion budget plan, aims to vote on infrastructure package by late September. House Democrats on Tuesday approved a roughly $3.5 trillion budget that could enable sweeping changes to the nation’s health-care, education and tax laws, overcoming their own internal divisions to take the next step toward enacting President Biden’s broader economic agenda."

Yes, the same geniuses who gave us the 20-year debacle in Afghanistan are now working on U.S. finances. And soon, it will be the U.S. economy surging down the drain. Just as they tried to make sweeping changes south of the Hindu Kush… now, they’re aiming to make improvements south of the 49th parallel. Will they succeed? Will the U.S. be a more prosperous place after the improvers are finished with it?

Win-Win Trades Win: Yesterday, we looked at the basics. Money doesn’t make you rich. If it were so, Zimbabwe and Venezuela would be among the richest places in the world. They’ve got plenty of money… all you could want of it. But their money is worthless. The U.S. has money, too. The Federal Reserve is “printing” $120 billion in new money every month. And there’s plenty more where that came from. But wealth comes from supplying goods and services to others – not from money. As we explain in our book "Win-Win or Lose" it’s win-win trades that make people wealthy, nothing more. [Bonner-Denning Letter subscribers can download a copy of Bill’s book here. To subscribe, and receive a free electronic copy – click here.]

And how do you make sure the trades are win-win? It is very simple… People do not go into restaurants run by bad chefs. They do not buy furniture with a reputation for falling apart. They do not buy things they neither want nor need from people they don’t like or don’t trust. So the fellow who fails to provide good products and good services at a reasonable price goes out of business.

No federal program needed! Subsidizing inefficient, unproductive businesses… paying people not to work…providing bailouts to shaky corporations… tariff protection to uncompetitive industries… “investment” funds to unprofitable projects… “welfare” to people who are believed to be unable to provide for themselves… or artificially low rates to keep the zombies alive… all of it makes us poorer.

Easy-Peasy Economics: But wait… Isn’t there anything “we” can do to make a win-win economy work better? How about long-term central planning? How about price controls… maybe only for the price of credit (interest rates)? How about providing liquidity in a pinch… or rewarding/punishing different investments so as to direct capital where “we” want it to go?

According to Marxist theory, you don’t need a free economy to produce goods and services. You can do it more intelligently, more rationally, by organizing the economy according to what you’re trying to achieve.

Women and men earn different salaries? Easy, peasy… Just pay them the same thing.
Too many imports from China? No sweat… Close the border!
Too much advertising? Ban it.
High unemployment? Create jobs.
Poverty? Give a guaranteed income.
Inflation? Declare a moratorium on price increases.
Want people to drive less? Force them to tie their shoelaces together and hop to work.

See how easy it is?

Tried and Failed: The only trouble is, it doesn’t work. Marxian economics, price controls, Grand Projects, and funny money have been tried many times… over many decades. Is there one example where an economy has flourished as a result? Nope. Not a one. More to come…"

"Most People..."

"Most people find facts irritating. 
Facts interfere with their systems of denial."
- Walter Darby Bannard

“A Pathologist Summary Of What These Jabs Do To The Brain And Other Organs”

“A Pathologist Summary Of What These Jabs 
Do To The Brain And Other Organs”
"A scientific clarification of what these injections 
do in the head and other organs of the vaccinated people."
by Dr. Ryan Cole
Google Blogger will not allow embedding this material. 
Please view the video here on Rumble:
Related:
Sucharit Bhakdi: COVID-19 Vaccination Is 
Greatest Threat Humanity Ever Faced"
by The Herland Report

"Covid-19 vaccination is greatest threat humanity ever faced: Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, forefront virus expert in microbiology in Germany, is one of the many doctors, scientists and medical professionals who give dire warnings about the current untested vaccines that are being administered to billions in the world." "In February, 2021, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, M.D. and a number of his colleagues warned the European Medicines Agency about the potential danger of blood clots and cerebral vein thrombosis in millions of people receiving experimental gene-based injections.  In this episode of Perspectives, Professor Bhakdi explains the science behind the problem, why it is not just limited to the products already suspended, and why in the long term we may be creating dangerously overactive immune systems in billions of unwitting subjects."
Please view the full text interview here:
Freely download MedFox Book "Rapid Virus Recovery" here:

"How It Really Is"

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 8/25/21"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/25/21:
"Economy Continues To Crater Which May Be Enough 
For Yet ANOTHER RECORD HIGH For Stocks"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/25/21:
"Economy Collapsing And Contracting Rapidly. 
Inflation Is SURGING!"