"The Madness of Crowds"

"The Madness of Crowds"

By Brian Maher

"Man is at bottom a herd animal.His behavior is influenced heavily by social pressures that constantly bear down upon him. It takes a unique individual to resist them, and to follow his own way. Markets are mass phenomena. And the same pack instincts that compel men to follow a street mob or fight a war, compel him to follow the market herd. Below, we reflect upon the madness of crowds, and praise the exceptional man who is able to think for himself.

When a man enters a crowd he exits civilization. He goes in, his blood goes up… and his reason goes out. As Herr Nietzsche observed, madness is a rarity in individuals - but the rule in crowds. Or as argued Mr. Charles Mackay, author of the 1841 classic "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds": "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

“A Crowd Runs Not on Thought but on Hormones”: A man in a crowd ceases to be a man but a face. He ceases to be an independent unit but a cog in a lunatic machine. A man in a crowd does not think for himself. The crowd thinks for him. That is, the man ceases to think whatsoever. For a crowd runs not on thought but on hormones. The crowd’s lusts become the man’s lusts, its will becomes his will, its devils become his devils. It is these devils - in fact - that unite the crowd.

A Crowd Needs a Devil: These devils may appear in the form of policemen, of whites, of blacks, of Muslims, of Christians, of Chinamen, of Russians, of conservatives, of progressives, of capitalists, of anti-capitalists, of greenhouse gas-geysers, of meat-munchers. One crowd has its devil. A second crowd, another. A third, a devil of its own. Above all:

Above all: Any crowd’s hate for devils vastly exceeds its love for angels. Angels do not excite the blood. Angels do not bubble the hormones. Angels do not furl the fingers into fists. Devils do excite the blood, get the blood up. Devils do bubble the hormones. Devils do furl the fingers into fists.

A Crowd Is Not Necessarily a Street Mob: But by our comprehensive standards, a crowd is not merely a mass on a street. A nation is a sort of crowd - a supercrowd. And no greater menace exists than a supercrowd after a devil. It is given to the same madnesses as the street crowd… only its madnesses are amplified by the tens, by the hundreds, by the thousands and the millions. They often leave “rivers of blood” and a “harvest of groans and tears” trailing behind them.

From the aforesaid "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds": "In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion and run after it till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple, and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity."

The Madness of Market Crowds: A market too is a crowd, a mob… and equally susceptible to lunacy. Do you doubt it? Mr. Mackay consecrates page upon page to the Tulip delirium (1636–37), the Mississippi Bubble (1718–20) and the related South Sea Bubble (1720). And let us say it now: It is a pity the fellow no longer writes.

The stock market bubble of 1929, the technology bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2008 added entire chapters to the literature of mass delusion. Additional chapters - no doubt - await writing. We hazard the 2020-2021 market deliriums will rank high among them.

Here is the common element that unites them all: The man in a crowd. Only the man under crowd influence heaves his reason into a ditch. Why do men do it?

Man Must Choose Between Freedom and Happiness: Mankind confronts a choice, argued George Orwell in 1984. He must choose between freedom and happiness. And the mass of men prefer happiness to freedom: The choice for mankind lay between freedom and happiness and that, for the great bulk of mankind, happiness was better.

The great bulk of men seek the peace and contentment of herd living - of life in a crowd. The man truly divorced from the social influence is a man truly exceptional. Freedom is too hot for most hands, as Mencken described it - or too cold for most spines, as Nietzsche described it. Either way… freedom runs to temperatures too extreme for most constitutions.

Here we do not judge. Nor do we evaluate or condemn. We merely describe, describe a phenomenon. The crowd offers safety. Numerical strength. Solidarity. Companionship. Reassurance.

“Freedom Includes the Freedom to Starve”: As we have written before: The free man must go upon his own hook. He must push along under his own steam, weave his own safety net, face cruel fate alone. Do not forget: Freedom includes the freedom to starve. We therefore have no heat against the man who chooses security over freedom, the full belly over the empty belly.

We enjoy happiness ourself. Safety. Security. And a belly stretched to capacity. Extremes of heat and cold, meantime, immiserate us. And - despite all evidence - we enjoy human companionship. We nonetheless confess a vast respect for the man who never wanders into a crowd, for the man who does not flock. For we prefer humanity in batches of one. The free man’s example is the eagle, the free and noble eagle.

“The Eagle Does Not Flock. You Find Him One by One”: We would emulate the solitary eagle over the flocking birds - over the birds that crowd. For the eagle does not flock. You find him one by one. That is, the eagle takes the individual view. In our experience, that view is often the higher view, the superior view. The free man is the eagle high aloft, wheeling and wheeling on motionless wings, on steady wings, on confident wings… On free wings.

He is free to starve, it is true. But he is also free to soar. And the man in a crowd? As the bird in a flock… he is free only to follow…"

- https://dailyreckoning.com/

"How It Really Is"

Dan, I Allegedly, "Bank Merger Desperation - It's Not What You Think!"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly, 2/20/24

"Bank Merger Desperation - 

It's Not What You Think!"

"Like we have been told over and over again that companies are going to merge to become a super company. This is not the case. Capital One is going to purchase and merge with the Discover card. This is not a form a super bank. It’s survival for both firms."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Fear, Shame And Intimidation Are Chemical Weapons"

"Fear, Shame And Intimidation Are Chemical Weapons"

by Paul Rosenberg

"Imagine that some combination of circumstances end with you walking into a so-so bar, then accidentally causing some gigantic brute to spill his drink. Imagine also that this brute just learned that his girlfriend moved out, taking his bank account with her. The brute, towering over you, clenches his fists and start spewing horrifying threats. Your knees go weak, you can barely think or move… you try to back up but do it so clumsily that you’re grasping the edge of the bar to prevent yourself from falling.

The brute hasn’t touched you, but you’ve already been seriously impacted. This happened because of well-known and well-studied chemicals… the chemicals that are now surging through your body. So, then, wasn’t this fear a chemical weapon? (It was, in fact, the bully’s first blow.)

Yes, the chemicals in question were generated by your own body, but they are chemicals just the same, and the actions of the brute were the cause of their release. Fear, then, is clearly a chemical weapon. So are intimidation and shame. As are their cousins, guilt, blame, and probably a few others, depending upon how we write our definitions.

Robert Sapolsky studied the chemicals involved (he studied baboons, but their body chemistry and ours is nearly the same), finding that these “chemical weapons” resulted in more stress, higher blood pressure, a suppressed immune system, and reduced fertility. We must, then, consider these very potent weapons. Consider these two cases, please:

Solomon Asch found that about 37% of people were willing to say something they knew to be untrue if they saw other people saying so first. (Fearing their shame.) 75% would go along at least some of the time.

Stanley Milgram found that 65% of people would obey an authority figure (an imposer of shame) and deliver electric shocks to another person, even to levels that would be fatal. (Though in fairness, the authority figure was accompanied by a plausible story.)

Our Unfortunate Biology: For both better and worse, we have a biological history. On one hand, that biological history has kept our species present and thriving, and so our complaints, however legitimate, are mitigated. On the other hand, however, our hormones, after who knows how many generations, have been trained to respond to things like authority and group identity. As a result they can release some very unpleasant and harmful chemicals into our bodies at certain times. And that’s something the manipulators of mankind have learned to use.

Our hormonal responses are not necessarily overwhelming, but they do have their effects… poisonous effects. By triggering fear, shame or intimidation (and the boundaries between them can be fuzzy), our hormones are triggered as well. And these hormones do more than just spur some of our thoughts and actions, they directly damage our health. And, by the way, people display higher IQs and do far better in executive control tests when they are feeling less rather than more intimidated.

Western Guilt: We Westerners are especially susceptible to some of these influences because of our cultural traditions. These particular characteristics leave it vulnerable to guilt. As a result, we’ve developed political classes that are devoted to finding fault, assigning blame, and then offering paths to absolution that suit their selfish goals. In other words, our civilization has been attacked with the chemical weapons of intimidation and shame, purposely and very effectively.

Blame, of course, is a method of assigning shame. Political types, especially – and very definitely authority types – thrive upon assigning shame. It has worked for them, time after time after time.

Nonetheless, our hormones, however long trained, can be managed. Prize fighters, football players and other repeated participants in violent activities learn how to manage those chemical attacks. And so, we who are subjected to endless chemical attacks both large and small (even ads that make you feel insufficient qualify)… we are also able to manage our responses. We must train ourselves to not respond to guilt.

We can consider facts, then repair and improve our actions if they are truly harmful, but merely feeling these weaponized chemicals is not to be taken as any sort of verdict. In most cases, it’s a hijacking of our internal chemistry, by and for professional abusers. In point of fact, billions of dollars are spent every year, precisely to take advantage of our unfortunate biological history. And so I say again, we must train ourselves not to be moved by those chemical weapons… and particularly not to respond to guilt."

- https://freemansperspective.com/

"The End of the Empire" (Excerpt)

"The End of the Empire"

by Scipio Eruditis

Excerpt: "The barbarians are inside the gates…“It is also a habit of tyrants to prefer the company of aliens to that of citizens at table and in society; citizens, they feel, are enemies, but aliens will offer no opposition.” - Aristotle

"If the Biden suzerainty has made anything clear, it is the utter loathing that the Regime has for the native-born American populace. Whilst America is embroiled in the midst of an unprecedented overdose epidemic, the Senate is busy passing bills that not only codify the ongoing invasion of America, but accelerates it. While American families struggle to pay their bills, families of illegal aliens are being funded to the tune of thousands a month and invaders are being handed “cash in envelopes” as they cross the border. While illegal invaders are being released without bail after assaulting the police, Navy veteran Michael Cassidy is being charged with felony hate crimes for righteously tearing down the satanic altar in Iowa’s state capitol. While the cartels are freely trafficking children over the border (sometimes with the assistance of Child Protective Services), American children are being kidnapped from their parents if they do not consent to the mutilation of their child’s genitalia.

I do not know how much clearer our occupying regime could make this for us: they consider Americans a conquered people. It is no accident, therefore, that nearly every major corporation in America is engaged in openly hostility towards the increasingly dwindling White population of America (truly, the West as a whole). On the one hand, mindless stenographers in the mass media will claim that this reality, dubbed The Great Replacement by French author Renaud Camus, is nothing but a conspiracy theory. On the other hand, they will boldly proclaim that “America’s Getting Less White”. Newsweek openly declared in the aftermath of the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville that “White Nationalists Are Right: America Is Becoming Less White”. The glee and regularity with which this news is now reported serves as a testament to the veracity of the critics concerns."

Full, highly recommended article is here:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

Adventures With Danno, "Items At Meijer Everyone Should Be Buying This Week!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, AM 2/20/24

"Items At Meijer Everyone Should Be Buying This Week!"

"Items we are seeing at Meijer that everyone should be buying right now. 

 Take advantage of some of these deals before the prices go up again."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Meanwhile, elsewhere...

Full screen recommended.

"Tucker Carlson Buying Groceries in Russia

 Exposes the Inflation in the USA"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "False Flag! British Cargo Ship Sunk By "Iranian Backed" Houthi Forces"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 2/20/24

"False Flag! British Cargo Ship Sunk

 By "Iranian Backed" Houthi Forces"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"What Is This Chemical Being Found In Cheerios & Quaker Oats?! This Will Shock You!"

Adventures With Danno, 2/19/24

"What Is This Chemical Being Found In 

Cheerios & Quaker Oats?! This Will Shock You!"

"Breaking News: As a chemical [Chlormequat Chloride] is being found in Cheerios and some Quaker Oats products. This has many people concerned whether these products are safe."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Jeremiah Babe, "Horrific And Catastrophic Events Are On The Way, This Is Not The Old America"

Jeremiah Babe, 2/19/24

"Horrific And Catastrophic Events Are On The Way, 

This Is Not The Old America"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Neil H, "Spellbound"

Neil H, "Spellbound"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Close to the Great Bear (Ursa Major) and surrounded by the stars of the Hunting Dogs (Canes Venatici), this celestial wonder was discovered in 1781 by the metric French astronomer Pierre Mechain. Later, it was added to the catalog of his friend and colleague Charles Messier as M106. Modern deep telescopic views reveal it to be an island universe - a spiral galaxy around 30 thousand light-years across located only about 21 million light-years beyond the stars of the Milky Way. 

Along with a bright central core, this stunning galaxy portrait, a composite of image data from amateur and professional telescopes, highlights youthful blue star clusters and reddish stellar nurseries tracing the galaxy's spiral arms. It also shows off remarkable reddish jets of glowing hydrogen gas. In addition to small companion galaxy NGC 4248 at bottom right, background galaxies can be found scattered throughout the frame. M106, also known as NGC 4258, is a nearby example of the Seyfert class of active galaxies, seen across the spectrum from radio to X-rays. Active galaxies are powered by matter falling into a massive central black hole.”

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

Chet Raymo, "Lessons"

"Lessons"

by Chet Raymo

"There is a four-line poem by Yeats, called "Gratitude to the Unknown Instructors":

"What they undertook to do

They brought to pass;

All things hang like a drop of dew

Upon a blade of grass."

Like so many of the short poems of Yeats, it is hard to know what the poet had in mind, who exactly were the unknown instructors, and if unknown how could they instruct. But as I opened my volume of "The Poems" this morning, at random, as in the old days people opened the Bible and pointed a finger at a random passage seeking advice or instruction, this is the poem that presented itself. Unsuperstitious person that I am, it seemed somehow apropos, since outside the window, in a thick Irish mist, every blade of grass has its hanging drop.

Those pendant drops, the bejeweled porches of the spider webs, the rose petals cupping their glistening dew - all of that seems terribly important here, now, in the silent mist. There is not much good to say about getting old, but certainly one advantage of the gathering years is the falling away of ego and ambition, the felt need to be always busy, the exhausting practice of accumulation. Who were the instructors who tried to teach me the practice of simplicity when I was young - the poets and the saints, the buddhas who were content to sit beneath the bo tree while the rest of us scurried here and there? I scurried, and I'm not sorry I did, but I must have tucked their lessons into the back of my mind, a cache of wisdom to be opened at my leisure.

Whatever it was they sought to teach has come to pass. All things hang like a drop of dew upon a blade of grass."

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

Canadian Prepper, "Alert! China/Russia Amassing Doomsday Stockpiles

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 2/19/24

"Alert! China/Russia Amassing Doomsday Stockpiles; 

Seed Vaults, Secret Bunkers And World War 3"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Watch Part 1 Here:

- https://youtu.be/Ub1PD_74ILs

"George Galloway: Israel Has Destroyed Itself as Yemen, Iran, Lebanon Prepare for War"

Full screen recommended.

Danny Haiphong, 2/19/24

"George Galloway: Israel Has Destroyed Itself 

as Yemen, Iran, Lebanon Prepare for War"

"Former UK MP George Galloway came on the show to discuss the situation in the Middle East and how the growing opposition to Israel's war spells doom for Netanyahu and the regime."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

"War With Hezbollah To Be 'Israel's' Deadliest: 130-page Israeli Report"

o

"Get Out, You Animals, Get Out: We Are Humans, Starved"

"Noli Timere: The Important Thing Is to Not Be Afraid”

"Noli Timere:

The Important Thing Is to Not Be Afraid”

by Ryan Holiday

"While Seamus Heaney, the world-famous Irish poet and Nobel Prize Winner, was being rushed to the operating room he sent a single text message to his wife with just two words: "Noli Timere." This Latin phrase when translated to English means Be not afraid. Heaney passed away not long after.

“There was no virtue more important to the Stoics than courage, particularly in times of stress or crisis. In scary times, it’s easy to be scared. Events can escalate at any moment. There is uncertainty. You could lose your job. Then your house and your car. Something could even happen with your kids. Of course we’re going to feel something when things are shaky like that. How could we not?

Even the Stoics, who were supposedly masters of their emotions, admitted that we are going to have natural reactions to the things that are out of our control. You’re going to feel cold if someone dumps a bucket of water on you. Your heart is going to race if something jumps out from behind a corner. These are things the Stoics openly discussed.

They had a word for these immediate, pre-cognitive impressions of things: phantasiai. No amount of training or wisdom, Seneca said, can prevent us from having these reactions. What mattered to them, and what is urgently needed today in a world of unlimited breaking news about pandemics or collapsing stock markets or military conflicts, was what you did after that reaction. What mattered is what came next.

There is a wonderful quote from Faulkner about this very idea. “Be scared,” he wrote. “You can’t help that. But don’t be afraid.” A scare is a temporary rush of a feeling. Being afraid is an ongoing process. Fear is a state of being. The alertness that comes from being startled might even help you. It wakes you up. It puts your body in motion. It’s what saves prey from the tiger or the tiger from the hunter. But fear and worry and anxiety? Being afraid? That’s not fight or flight. That’s paralysis. That only makes things worse.

Especially right now. Especially in a world that requires solutions to the many problems we face. They’re certainly not going to solve themselves. And inaction (or the wrong action) may make them worse, it might put you in even more danger. An inability to learn, adapt, to embrace change will too.

There is a Hebrew prayer which dates back to the early 1800s: כל העולם כולו גשר צר מאוד והעיקר לא לפחד כלל. “The world is a narrow bridge, and the important thing is not to be afraid.” The wisdom of that expression has sustained the Jewish people through incredible adversity and terrible tragedies. It was even turned into a popular song that was broadcast to troops and citizens alike during the Yom Kippur War. It’s a reminder: Yes, things are dicey, and it’s easy to be scared if you look down instead of forward. Fear will not help.

What does help? Training. Courage. Discipline. Commitment. Calm. But mainly, that courage thing – which the Stoics held up as the most essential virtue. One of my favorite explanations of this idea comes from the Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield. “It’s not like astronauts are braver than other people,” he says. “We’re just, you know, meticulously prepared…” Think about someone like John Glenn, the first American to orbit the earth, whose heart rate never went above a 100 beats per minute the entire mission. That’s what preparation does for you.

Astronauts face all sorts of difficult, high stakes situations in space – where the margin for error is tiny. In fact, on Chris’ first spacewalk his left eye went blind. Then his other eye teared up and went blind too. In complete darkness, he had to find his way back if he wanted to survive. He would later say that the key in such situations is to remind oneself that “there are six things that I could do right now, all of which will help make things better. And it’s worth remembering, too, there’s no problem so bad that you can’t make it worse also.” That’s the difference between scared and afraid. One prevents you from making things better, it may make them worse.

After the stock market crash in October 1929, America faced a horrendous economic crisis that lasted ten years. Banks failed. Investors were wiped out. Unemployment was some 20 percent. Herbert Hoover, who’d only been in office barely six months when the market collapsed, tried and failed repeatedly for the next 3.5 years to stem the tide. FDR, who succeeded him, would have never denied that things were dangerous and that this was scary. Of course it was. He was scared. How could he not be? Yet what he counseled the people in his now-legendary first inaugural address in 1933 was that fear was a choice, it was the real enemy to be fought. Because it would only make the situation worse. It would destroy the remaining banks. It would turn people against each other. It would prevent the implementation of cooperative solutions.

And today, whether the biggest problem you face is the coronavirus pandemic or the similarly dire economic implications – or maybe it’s both those things plus a faltering marriage or a cancer diagnosis or a lawsuit – you have to know what the real plague to avoid is.

This life we’re living – this world we inhabit – is a scary place. If you peer over the side of a narrow bridge, you can lose the heart to continue. You freeze up. You sit down. You don’t make good decisions. You don’t see or think clearly.

The important thing is that we are not afraid. That we don’t overthink things. That we don’t get distracted with the worst-case scenario on top of the worst-case scenario on top of the collision of two other worst-case scenarios. Because that doesn’t help us with what’s right in front of us right now. It doesn’t help us put one foot in front of the other, whether it’s on a spacewalk or a tough business call. It doesn’t help us slow our heart rate down whether we’re re-entering the earth’s atmosphere or watching a plummeting stock portfolio. It doesn’t help us remember that we’ve trained for this, that there is a playbook for how to proceed.

Remember, Marcus Aurelius himself faced a deadly, dangerous pandemic. His people were panicked. His doctors were baffled. His staff and his advisors were conflicted. His economy plunged. The plague spanned fifteen years of his reign with a mortality rate of between 2-3%. Marcus would have been scared – how could he not have been? But he didn’t let that rattle him. He didn’t freeze. He didn’t relinquish his ability to lead. He got to work.

“Don’t let your imagination be crushed by life as a whole,” he wrote to himself, as it was happening. “Don’t try to picture everything bad that could possibly happen. Stick with the situation at hand, and ask, ‘Why is this so unbearable? Why can’t I endure it?’ You’ll be embarrassed to answer.” The crisis could have crippled him. But instead he stood up. He not only endured it, but he was a hero. He saved lives. He prevented panic from turning the battle into a rout.

Which is what we must do today and always, whatever we’re facing. We can’t give into fear. We have to repeat to ourselves over and over again: It’s OK to be scared, just don’t be afraid. We repeat: The world is a narrow bridge and I will not be afraid.

We have to focus on the six things, as Chris Hadfield might say, that we can do to make it better. And we can’t forget that there are plenty of things we can do to make things worse. Foremost among them, giving into fear and making mistakes. Rather, we have to keep going. Now is the time for everyone to show courage, like the thousands of generations who have come before us. Because time marches in only one direction – forward.”

- https://ryanholiday.net/

The Daily "Near You?"

West Coxsackie, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Bill Bonner, "The Clusterf#ck of Woe"

"The Clusterf#ck of Woe"

Rising inflation, teetering markets and the looming Big Loss...

by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "John Hussman runs an investment shop north of Baltimore. He is very analytical…mathematical…historical and statistical. That is to say, he takes his analysis seriously and believes that you can hear a little of the future in the echoes of the past. Here’s his latest: "Based on dozens of measures that include valuations, internals, overextension syndromes, and numerous technical, fundamental, and cyclical gauges we’ve developed over time, we estimate that current market conditions now ‘cluster’ among the worst 0.1% instances in history – more similar to major market peaks and dissimilar to major market lows than 99.9% of all post-war periods."

Not to put too fine a point on it, but at market tops prices go down. At market bottoms, they go up. Our goal is to avoid the Big Loss. And Big Losses are what you get at market tops. At market bottoms, you get Big Opportunities. So, Hussman is telling us that we were right. The Big Loss threat today is in the stock market…and specifically, in the Magnificent 7 that dominate the top of the performance listings. By all his measures, only in 0.1% of cases does today’s stock market look like a bottom. In the other 99.9% instances, today’s metrics signal a top.

How big is the loss likely to be? Hussman helps us there too. “I call this the ‘Cluster of Woe’ because the handful of similarly extreme instances (most notably in 1972, 1987, 1998, 2000, 2018, 2020, and 2022) were typically followed by abrupt market losses of 10%-30% over the next 6-10 weeks (average -12.5%), with losses at the smaller end of that range often seeing deeper follow-through later.”

Time to Topple: The surprising thing, to us, is that the losses are not that BIG after all. The woe…is not so woeful. In his figures, is an average loss of just 12.5%. Dear readers might well say to themselves: “Eh…is that all? I can live with that. Especially if I get a chance to double or triple my money in Nvidia.”

The stock market is extremely top-heavy. Three stocks – Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia – account for half the gains this year. Nvidia traded at $8 a share when Donald Trump was elected. Now, it is $730. That’s a dream-maker, turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $1 million. This year alone Nvidia has jumped 50%. But what were the odds of identifying Nvidia 8 years ago? And what are the odds that Nvidia…the rest of the super techs…and the entire stock market…topple over now? According to Hussman, the risk is 99.9%.

But where we think Hussman may have erred is not on his calculation of the odds, but his measure of the damage. It could be much greater than Hussman’s figures suppose. What we face – possibly – is not just a ‘cluster of woe,’ but a clusterf*ck of woe – with falling asset prices, rising inflation, political corruption and incompetence never before seen in the US, and a sharp decline in America’s power, influence and wealth.

Unrepeatable: Let’s begin with the period of time described by Hussman’s ‘Cluster of Woe.’ It was unique in market history. It began in 1972 – a single year after the US introduced its new money system. After that, it was off to the races for all financial assets – stocks, bonds, real estate and baseball cards. Why? Because the new money was based on credit, not assets. Each new dollar was an IOU from the US Treasury…and it entered the financial system through the banks…borrowed into existence either by consumers, business, or the federal government itself.

Taking 1972 as a base, some amazing things happened. First, the federal budget was never again balanced (except for three years during which tax receipts outstripped spending…not counting Social Security ‘contributions’.) 1975 was also the last year the US recorded a positive trade balance. After that, the next 49 years, it was in deficit…with the biggest deficit ever recorded in 2022 of $951 billion. The new, fake money caused everything to go bafouey. Real hourly wages topped out in 1972. The price of Campbell’s soup went up 10 times. The US debt/GDP ratio rose three times.

Yes, it was a strange time. China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, India and many other ‘developing’ nations, were trying to improve their lots by exporting cheap products – both commodities and finished products – helping to hold prices down in ‘the West.’

And the strangest thing about it was the money itself. In the late ‘70s, Paul Volcker got the drop on inflation and ushered in the greatest stock market boom of all time. That is the period that Hussman is using for his base. And it was a period in which stock prices were seriously distorted by fake money and the Fed. By the 1990s, each time the stock market tried to correct, the Fed lowered interest rates to encourage more borrowing…more liquidity…and higher stock prices. But that period is over. The Fed cannot repeat the trick. Or so we believe.

Here to Stay: Now we face inflation – persistent, entrenched, not-going-away inflation. Breitbart: "January was not an aberration, a fluke, or a detour from a disinflationary trend. It was the third month of the consumer price index (CPI) rising on a month-to-month basis.

That’s a rarer phenomenon than you might think. We ran the numbers going back to 1947 and found that there have only been 36 periods in which inflation rose for three straight months. The typical pattern, even in periods of high inflation, is one of push and shove, up and down. Since November, inflation has only gone up. What this means is that the Fed can no longer goose up the economy or the stock market, not without risking higher inflation. And higher prices will undermine sales and profits, and ultimately undermine the stock market itself.

Meanwhile, the empire is slip-sliding into desperation, the press and the universities have become propaganda arms of the elite, immigration is out-of-control, Alaskans and Texans are ready to secede, and US debt is quickly approaching the largest debt crisis in world history. Stay tuned..."

- https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/

"A Very Fit Consideration..."

“How vast those orbs must be, and how inconsiderable this Earth, the theatre upon which all our mighty designs, all our navigations, and all our wars are transacted, is when compared to them. A very fit consideration, and matter of reflection, for those Kings and Princes who sacrifice the lives of so many people, only to flatter their ambition in being masters of some pitiful corner of this small spot.”

- Christiaan Huygens, (1629-1695)

"War With Hezbollah To Be 'Israel's' Deadliest: 130-page Israeli Report"

"War With Hezbollah To Be

 'Israel's' Deadliest: 130-page Israeli Report"

An Israeli report underlines that the Israeli occupation has no 

chance in the face of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon 

as the latter's capabilities would rapidly overwhelm "Tel Aviv".

By Al Mayadeen

"The potential war between the Israeli occupation and Lebanon's Hezbollah holds a grim reality for the Israeli occupation, as it would be the most devastating war it has gone through since its inception, as per a three-year study conducted by hundreds of experts at the Counter-Terrorism Policy Institute at Reichman University. Israeli news outlet Calcalist shed light on the grim analysis of the potential war, which warns of unprecedented destruction and bloodshed in a conflict that could surpass the Israeli occupation's worst fears.

The exhaustive 130-page report was a collaborative effort of six think tank teams, consisting of 100 experts, former military and security officials, academics, and government officials. Notably, the team was led by Professor Boaz Ganor, a globally recognized pioneer in so-called "terrorism research" and the current president of Reichman University.

The report delves into critical aspects, including the readiness of the Israeli forces and the home front for a multi-front war. Key contributors to the study include Reserve Major General Aharon Ze'evi Farkash, Reserve Major General Isaac Ben-Israel, Reserve Brigadier Generals Zeev Zuk Ram and Betzalel Treiber, Reserve Colonel Eran Makov, Haim Tomer, and former Justice Minister Dan Meridor.

Despite the gravity of the findings, Calcalist suggests that doubts surround the timing of the report's release, hinting at possible concealment or manipulation. Ganor reportedly presented the report to various Israeli military and political leaders in the months leading up to the Palestinian Resistance's October 7 operation. However, the attempts to alert security agencies and decision-makers were allegedly unsuccessful, according to the Israeli media outlet.

The report was presented to senior Israeli officials over the span of 40 meetings with figures as high-ranking as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Security Minister Moshe Ya'alon, and former Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, among others. Professor Ganor expressed his disappointment in failing to secure meetings with more high-profile figures like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, despite multiple requests.

Of particular concern is the claim that only the findings of five think tank teams were made public, with the section prepared by the sixth team, focusing on aspects related to a potential Israeli preemptive attack, remaining strictly confidential.

Hellfire to rain down on 'Israel': Ganor's report suggests that the war, anticipated to erupt from the north, will be overwhelmingly intense for the Israeli occupation, with Hezbollah launching a whopping 2,500 to 3,000 missiles per day. This barrage includes both statistically inaccurate rocket artillery and high-precision long-range missiles.

Periodically, Hezbollah is expected to unleash massive salvos targeting specific areas, such as crucial Israeli military bases or cities in the key "Gush Dan" region, where hundreds of rockets could rain down in a single day. The relentless assault is projected to persist day after day, extending over three weeks from the outbreak of hostilities. The report warns that the resulting destruction will be unprecedented, accompanied by thousands of casualties on both the front lines and among Israeli settlers within occupied Palestine, sparking a state of panic and disarray.

One of the primary objectives of Hezbollah's prospective operations, as highlighted by Ganor, is to undermine the Israeli forces' air defense system. Precision ammunition and low-flying aerial devices, including drones, gliders, and cruise missiles, are expected to inflict material damage and target Iron Dome batteries.

The pace of the barrage will present unprecedented challenges to Israeli capabilities, depleting reserves of interception missiles for the Iron Dome and David's Sling within the early days of the conflict. The Israeli occupation could be left exposed to thousands of rocket and missile attacks without an effective and reliable defensive mechanism.

Simultaneously, Hezbollah aims to sabotage the activities of the Israeli Air Force and limit its operational capabilities as heavy precision missiles will be directed at takeoff runways within specific timeframes to hinder repair efforts and aerial offensives. Intensive fire will target hangars storing military aircraft and precision missiles with explosive warheads will strike sensitive infrastructure, including power stations, electricity-related facilities, desalination plants, and transportation facilities in Haifa and "Ashdod", the report underlined.

The report's research team also issued a dire warning that a swarm of dozens of suicide drones flying at very low altitudes would target critical assets within occupied Palestine. These include weapons facilities, emergency storage facilities for the Israeli occupation forces, and hospitals that would be needed for the unprecedented casualties that would be incurred.

The assault won't be limited to physical attacks; critical transportation infrastructure, communication channels, and sites related to government ministries and local authorities are expected to face widespread cyberattacks, posing a serious risk of disrupting the economy.

Hezbollah, allies to overwhelm 'Israel': The report highlights that chaos is expected to escalate within the Israeli occupation as Hezbollah prepares to send hundreds of fighters from the Radwan force into Israeli territories. Their primary objective would be to gain control of settlements along the border area with Lebanon and strategic military sites in the northern region. This would force the Israeli army to divert its efforts from immediate operations in Lebanon, engaging in ground maneuvers to counter the imminent threat.

Internally, the Israeli public is anticipated to face challenges in receiving updated and reliable information about the unfolding situation, leading to a loss of trust in messages relayed by official sources. The potential for panic and fear is expected to intensify due to the significant number of casualties, extensive damage, disruptions in power and water supply, delays in the arrival of rescue and relief forces, and difficulties in obtaining essential services such as food and medicine.

Hezbollah plans to exacerbate panic and confusion through continuous psychological warfare, flooding the media and social networks with threats and information that deepen internal divisions. Additionally, those seeking to escape from occupied Palestine may discover that the country's air links with the world have been severed.

Ganor, a prominent figure in the region, pointed out that the Israeli public's expectations of the Air Force and intelligence formations preventing the majority of guided missile strikes on the Israeli occupation are likely to be disproven. The assumption that an intensive Israeli attack on strategically important properties in Lebanon will force Hezbollah to cease fire is also expected to be proven wrong.

Hezbollah will not be alone in this battle, as the report warns of involvement from organizations across the region. Resistance factions in Syria and Iraq, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, as well as Ansar Allah in Yemen, are expected to contribute to what the report describes as a "violent and extensive upheaval." The upheaval in question will include disruptions in the West Bank and among Palestinians of '48, with rioting in mixed cities, challenges in war perception for the public, and the lowering of expectations from the army and rescue forces.

The report concludes by outlining vulnerabilities and pinpointing weaknesses in the Israeli forces and society. It challenges the expectations of the public and a significant portion of the leadership, stating that the effective Israeli Air Force and intelligence formations might not prevent the majority of missile strikes from reaching occupied Palestinian territories. Similarly, the assumption that extensive attacks on strategically important properties in Lebanon would force Hezbollah to cease fire is expected to be inaccurate.

In a related context, a former Shin Bet official Dvir Karev told Israeli Channel 13 that "Israel" is currently in its third war with Lebanon and that Hezbollah has much more power than Hamas, both in weapons and in force. He questioned whether the IOF's power could be sufficient against Hezbollah and expressed hope that the confrontations would remain at a low level, acknowledging the many Israeli casualties."

- https://english.almayadeen.net/

Stipendium peccati mors est, Israel...

"Economic Market Snapshot 2/19/24"

"Economic Market Snapshot 2/19/24"

○

Market Data Center, Live Updates:

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data 

○

Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...

Only the consequences are real - to you!

○

"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 

You and I are not in the Big Club."

- George Carlin

○

- https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/

○

A comprehensive, essential daily read.

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

○

Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."

○

- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

Job cuts and much more.

○

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

○

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

○

- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

○

- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

○

- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

○

"The more I see of the monied classes,

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

○

Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...

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And now... The End Game...

o

"How It Really Is"

Dan, I Allegedly, "How Bad Will It Get in 2024?"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly, 2/19/24

"How Bad Will It Get in 2024?"

"Here we are six weeks into the new year, and there have been massive amounts of layoffs in every single sector. Doesn’t matter what industry you’re in you’re going to see layoffs. Plus people are cutting cost now more than ever. Trouble is coming."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Jim Kunstler, "Brandon, Rotting in the (White) House"

              

"Brandon, Rotting in the (White) House"

“We are going to have the most diverse 

and inclusive civilizational collapse in history” 

- Oilfield Rando on “X”

by Jim Kunstler

"Hark! We are informed this President’s Day by The New York Times that a poll out of the University of Houston, led by one prof of poly-sci named (get this name) Brandon Rottinghaus, ranks “Joe Biden” at No. 14, way above average among the forty-six demi-gods elected to run the US government since 1789. It’s a helluva good bit of news for a nation in need of reassurance in these dark days, don’t you agree? They’ve got him sandwiched between John Quincy Adams and Woodrow Wilson, beating out the likes of Andrew Jackson, Grover Cleveland, James Monroe, and Ronald Reagan. Mr. Trump is ranked dead last, of course.

“Biden’s most important achievements may be that he rescued the presidency from Trump, resumed a more traditional style of presidential leadership and is gearing up to keep the office out of his predecessor’s hands this fall,” the report states.

Gearing up? I’m sure. If gearing up means calling a lid on your life an hour after breakfast. And what do you suppose they mean by “a more traditional form of leadership.” Arranging serial overseas military humiliations? Selling favors to all comers from foreign lands? Inviting transsexuals to cavort on the White House lawn? Abolishing control of US borders? Running a $2-trillion annual deficit? Mandating unsafe and ineffective so-called “vaccine” shots on millions? Cancelling the First Amendment? Stealing elections? Conspiring to jail his political adversaries?

We’re also informed in recent days by the Department of Justice that “Joe Biden” is not mentally competent to answer for anything in a court of law, should someone inquire into the signal irregularities emerging from the fugitive annals of his long career. Of course, “Joe Biden” running for reelection is one of the greatest gags ever put over on the American public. But more astounding yet is that half the country persists in pretending to believe it. They are egged on in every possible way by persons in high places of government fearful of going to prison if the Democratic Party loses its grip on the levers of power.

Since “Joe Biden” is not actually calling the shots, one naturally wonders who is responsible for all the dubious achievements of the past three years. I guess we’ll find out when Mr. Trump wins that election in November, an outcome increasingly guaranteed unless “Joe Biden” (or, let’s face it, our Intel Community) takes the final decisive step of bumping off the Golden Golem of Greatness. What have they got left? AI-contrived photos of Mr. Trump having sex with a manatee in the intercoastal waterway off Mar-a-Lago?

In New York City, the Woke lunatics did a victory dance after Judge Arthur Engoron, beaming his Joker smile, laid a $350-million fine on Mr. Trump for conducting a set of normal real estate transactions with a bank that profited from doing business with him. Many are still trying to figure out how that amounts to a crime of any sort. Don’t suppose that the check is in the mail, though. There is an appeals process that leads, you may be sure, to a dismissal of that inane judgment and the puerile hypotheticals that the case derived from. And, by and by, you also might expect a countersuit for malicious prosecution when all that smoke clears. New York Attorney General Letitia James, lacking impulse control, is for the moment enjoying the fulfillment of her campaign promise to “get Trump.” Waiting to see how much she enjoys losing her law license in the days to come.

Every reaction provokes an equal and opposite reaction, Newton’s Third Law states. It manifested shortly after Judge Engoron’s end zone dance when a call went out over the Internet for America’s truckers to refuse loads inbound to New York City. We’ll have to stand by to see how that develops. No more bok choy, Texas beef, or Meyer Lemons for you, “progressive” denizens of the Five Boroughs! Embrace the suck! The genius part is that, unlike the 2022 Canadian truckers’ action in Ottawa, the American truckers will not be cluttering up New York’s streets with their rigs, license plates on view, leaving them vulnerable to such pranks as the shutdown of their bank accounts. All they’ll do is sit innocently at home back in Kentucky and Missouri, enjoying a break from the rigors of the highway. Is that a crime? Arguably no more than doing a normal real estate deal in good faith with willing lender was a crime.

The truckers have promised to include Washington DC next in their delivery boycott. The K-Street lobbying gang won’t be buying any influence for a while over platters of grilled branzino and Mariscos Molcajete. Maybe there will a few Cliff Bars left in the Farragut Square 7-Eleven and they can do business in their cars. As for “Joe Biden,” his minders have probably laid in enough Ensure for a well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory to get by for a few weeks - until the magic moment when, alas, he must needs be thrown under the bus of expediency to keep their game going."

- https://kunstler.com/

Oh, the full name of Jim's website is SO true...

Loza Alexander, "Let's Go Brandon"