Friday, October 6, 2023

"The Right Time Will Never Come"

"The Right Time Will Never Come"
by Paul Rosenberg

"Lots of good people are frustrated with the world, and I understand that only too well. They are, furthermore, eager for the world to improve, and I respect that a great deal. Their problem arises, however, right on the heels of these desires, when they ask the question, “What should I do?” And that’s where the wheels fall off.

All the Popular Answers Are Wrong: The world is full of people who are glad to tell you what to do. They have elaborate arguments as to why their plan is the right one and why everyone else’s is wrong. They’ll encourage you to commit to them, and they’ll try to surround you with people who have already chosen their plan. If you join, you’ll get lots of pats on the back and assurances that you’re a good person. But all those ways are wrong. They offer you fast, cheap self-esteem. They offer you a fast track to feeling useful, important, and wanted. And all you have to do is join their very pleasant crowd.

Let me make this very clear: There is no blueprint for freedom. There will be no great plan to follow. People who say they have such a thing, while they may be well-meaning, bright, and even respectable, are moving in the wrong direction. (And I truly don’t mean to criticize here; we’ve all made our mistakes.) Here’s the core of the issue: If we want a world that is safe for individuals, we’ll have to create it as individuals, not as groups. Groups beget after their own kind, and individuals beget after their own kind.

I’m not the first person to decide this, by the way; here’s what Albert Schweitzer had to say on the subject many years ago: "The unnatural way of spreading ideas must be opposed by the natural one, which goes from man to man and relies solely on the truth of the thoughts and the hearer’s receptiveness for new truth."

The Easiest Thing to Do: Following someone else’s plan is the easy way. It saves us from responsibility. It allows us to deflect the blame, at least a little, if later we’re found to be wrong. This easy way, however, is a wrong way. There’s a great line from Steven Stills’s song, “The Southern Cross,” that goes like this:
"And we never failed to fail;
it was the easiest thing to do."

It will always be the easiest thing to go downward into servitude. That is the current condition of the world, with its dominance-obsessed and status-worshiping inertia. You can go downward quickly by handing your will to the status quo, or you can go slowly by standing still. But until you act, solely upon your own judgment, you’re not going to go upward.

Are You Saying…? Yes, I’m saying that you have to make your own decision, all alone, and that you have to raise the courage to start acting upon it by yourself, with no leader telling you the best choice, with no famous author guiding you, and with no authority sanctifying the path for you. You’ll have to choose, all by yourself. And you’ll have to face all the fears that hold you back from stepping out… you’ll have to push past them… you’ll have to make your own legs start walking. That, my friends, is the price of progress… and we each have to pay it, or not pay it, alone.

We Should Act Without a Plan? Emphatically yes. The central issue here is not following a plan, but dragging ourselves out of stasis and taking some kind of initiative. Unless you’re making some kind of wild, destructive choice, almost any choice you make is a good one. Your central necessity is to unfreeze yourself and start moving. Once you’re in motion, it’s easy to correct your course. But if you never move, you’ll just keep sliding down the majority’s path, regardless of how much you complain.

In our time, most of the good people in the world remain motionless. We complain about our local fiefdom’s abuses, of course, but that’s about all. That’s the seduction of “democracy,” you see: It magically turns complaints into progress. Except that the magic of democracy never really shows up. Still, it’s the easiest thing to do. And so we complain and we wait, but we do not act.

But again: There’s never going to be a perfect plan and there’s never going to be a right time. If you wait for them, you’ll wait forever. So, pick a spot and start. You probably already have choices in mind: Bitcoin, homeschooling, intentional communities, agorism, becoming a perpetual traveler, or something else. Whatever it is, get moving: your central necessity is to face the fear and to act anyway. And if you’d like to know my favorite choice, here it is: Sit at bus stops or train stations and talk to people. You can do that at almost any time and any place.

Who Happens to Whom? In other words, “Who acts, and who is acted upon?” As an old coworker of mine used to say, “He who hesitates is lost.” If you wait, you’ll be acted upon. And then you’ll have to re-form your plan, and you’ll hesitate again. And then you’ll be acted upon again… over and over, until you’re too old to do much of anything.

The ‘right time’ never comes. Either we let the world happen to us, or we transcend our fears and we happen to the world. So, I propose a simple motto for people who have courage enough to break stasis: The world doesn’t happen to us. We happen to the world."

The Daily "Near You?"

Scottsboro, Alabama, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Bill Bonner, "The Report from Iron Mountain"

"The Report from Iron Mountain"
Support for war flags... 
even as the health of the state depends on it.
by Bill Bonner

"Laugh…and know."
~ Marcus Valerius Martialis

Poitou, France - "Every day the war drums beat louder. Asia Times: "US provocatively points new nuke-tipped missile at China." The US has just tested a new type of nuclear-tipped air launch cruise missile, reaffirming the viability of the air-based leg of its nuclear triad against evolving threats from near-peer adversaries China and Russia with profound implications for regional stability and global non-proliferation norms. This month, The Warzone reported that the US Air Force had conducted nine flight tests of its future nuclear-tipped AGM-181A Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) cruise missile prototypes, including one test with a mock nuclear warhead.

Waning Support: When Europeans were just beginning to discover North America, an intrepid explorer spent time with the tribes along the Hudson Bay of Canada. He reported that one day, the young men of the tribe took their weapons and headed north. He thought they were on a hunting party. For weeks they continued…until the trees had disappeared …and it looked like desolate tundra. Finally, they found what they were looking for – an Eskimo village. The Eskimos were different people – different language, different culture… Wasting no time, the Indians attacked and slaughtered everyone in the village – men, women, children.

They were on a crusade. And they targeted people they must have viewed as ‘bad.’ Were they bad because they worshiped other gods? Or because they worshiped no gods at all? Were they bad because they had bad breath…or because the Indians lived on a vast, mostly-empty continent and the Eskimos were the only plausible ‘enemy’ within range?

The war in the Ukraine seems to be winding down. When Zelensky spoke to the UN last week, many of the seats were empty. Russia is winning; the rest of the world is losing interest. Reuters: "US public support declines for arming Ukraine, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows." "Support for U.S. weapon shipments is down from May, when a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 46% of Americans backed sending arms, while 29% were opposed and the rest unsure. Ukrainian forces have retaken a series of villages and settlements in the counteroffensive that began in June, but its soldiers have been hampered by vast Russian minefields and trenches."

The White Flag: Ukraine is running out of weapons, money, and enthusiasm. Most important, it is running out of meat for its grinder. The average age of its soldiers is said to be 40 years. Young men leave before they can be drafted; they aren’t willing to die for whatever crusade Zelensky is leading.

What is surprising to us is how many are still there. All Russia asked was to keep NATO out of the Ukraine. Dying so that your country can join NATO does not seem particularly attractive. In a similar situation young Americans would scurry out of town too. At least, that was the finding of a survey reported in the Daily Mail. Voters were asked:

'Assume there is an invasion of America by another country and they were on the brink of victory. You can either almost certainly die fighting for your country, or surrender and survive. What would you do?' Of young people, 18-29, only 30% would fight.

No matter. History tells us that it is easy to gin up a war fever and get millions of people killed for no apparent reason. All you need is an enemy. And right now, America’s foreign policy experts…its glorious think tank generals…and its newspaper heroes turn their eyes east – to China. What have the Chinese done to us? Don’t know? But that was the point of the ‘Report from Iron Mountain.’ An enemy doesn’t have to do something, he just has to be something – a useful foe.

The Health of the State: China is the world’s greatest success story – ever. Since 1979, it brought 800 million people up from the grit and slime of Mao’s communist poverty into the modern world of capitalism, decent salaries, abundant food and technological wonders, such as its high speed rail and Shanghai’s maglev train. The US can’t match it.

But instead of admiring it…trying to learn from it…and hoping to profit from it, all of which would benefit the American people, China is becoming the enemy the empire elite need. Richard Cullen: "Bad-tempered coverage of China continues to flourish across the entire US media. It ranges from fire-breathing to pearl-clutching. Most commentators look daggers at Beijing in a dozen different over-cooked ways – and especially at the Communist Party of China – while reminding readers and viewers of America’s continuing paramount superpower status."

Truth emerges, often, in unexpected places. The “Report from Iron Mountain” may have been a spoof, designed only to elicit a knowing chuckle from the cynical cognoscenti, but it reveals the real cause of war better than any group of federal hacks ever could. The supposed background is that a 15-member group of pipe smokers got together in a Special Study Group to speculate on the consequences of ‘peace.’ They met in a nuclear-secure bunker under Iron Mountain. They came to the conclusion that government is incompatible with ‘peace.’ It can’t exist without war. Nation states only exist so they can make war.

There was nothing new about this insight. “War is the health of the state,” said Randolph Bourne. War is not just useful to government; it is government. The defining difference between the US government and the Catholic Church, Kiwanis Club or Walmart is that the former uses force to get what it wants. The latter do not. Without the use of force – police, jails, wars – the ‘state’ would have no reason to exist. Tune in Monday…for more on why war is inevitable…and why the US will probably lose it.
o
Freely download
"Report From Iron Mountain On The
Possibility And Desirability Of Peace" here: 

Jim Quinn, "Pull It!" (Excerpt)

"Pull It!" (Excerpt)
by Jim Quinn

“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.” - Frank Zappa

Excerpt: "I know they try to keep us distracted with Taylor Swift’s latest escapades, today’s fake indictments of Trump, Biden’s dog biting another White House visitor, Dementia Joe falling down or shitting his pants while lying about his past, our imminent death from climate change and gas stoves, black lesbians from Maryland being appointed senator from California, allowing millions of third world savages to invade our homeland and then proposing Trumps wall, the annual government shutdown kabuki dance, and sending another $25 billion into Zelensky’s off-shore bank accounts for his noble freedom fighting efforts against Russia.
But I know and you know it is all bullshit, meant to divert our attention from the imminent destruction of our financial system at the behest of the Deep State cabal using Dementia Joe as their Trojan horse. They plan to implement their Great Reset agenda come hell or high water. They want to reduce the “surplus population” of the planet through whatever means necessary, whether it be their toxic vaccines, global warfare, climate lockdowns, destroying farmers, starving the peasants, making sure you own nothing, and creating a catastrophic financial collapse designed to impoverish the masses.

I know they try to keep us distracted with Taylor Swift’s latest escapades, today’s fake indictments of Trump, Biden’s dog biting another White House visitor, Dementia Joe falling down or shitting his pants while lying about his past, our imminent death from climate change and gas stoves, black lesbians from Maryland being appointed senator from California, allowing millions of third world savages to invade our homeland and then proposing Trumps wall, the annual government shutdown kabuki dance, and sending another $25 billion into Zelensky’s off-shore bank accounts for his noble freedom fighting efforts against Russia."
Full, most highly recommended article is here:
Hat tip to Jim Quinn and 
the Burning Platform for this material

"How It Really Is..."

 

The best little whorehouse, well, anywhere...

"Russia - Ukraine War Update 10/6/23"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 10/6/23
"How Bad is US intel on Ukraine?
 Intel Round Table w/Larry Johnson & Ray McGovern"
Comments here:
o
Colonel Douglas Macgregor Straight Calls, 10/6/23
"The Russians Press On And Take Odessa"
"Analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current 
geopolitical events in the United States of America and the world."
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "Something Big and Stupid is About To Happen"

Full screen recommended.
AM 10/6/23
"Something Big and Stupid is About To Happen"
"Everything is precarious in the economy right now, but we’re getting more and more experts that feel that something big and stupid is about to happen. Layoffs are happening. The job numbers are horrible right now."
Comments here:

Jim Kunstler, "Comes the Dancing Skeleton"

"Comes the Dancing Skeleton"
by Jim Kunstler

"By some hidden working of unseen forces, legions of ghouls and demons are bursting out of the ground in every other front yard of small-town America. Supposedly hard-up working-class people go all-out constructing Halloween shrines to the totem figures of decay and death, as in some depraved cargo cult competition aimed at hastening our country’s descent into chaos. The end can’t come soon enough, seems to be the message. Something in the zeitgeist is prompting us to do this.

Year to year, these morbid displays of slavering werewolves, hooded skeletons, grinning mummies, pirate corpses, horned devils, giant spiders, flapping crows, and glowing skulls far surpass in scale the once-exuberant displays of Christmas time - as if to say the celebration of horror and terror has way more meaning in America these days than the message of peace-on-earth, angels-on-high, the boundless generosity of Santa Claus, and the humble birth of a loving god. Kind of reminds you of what Mr. Dylan said more than a half-century ago: “…he not busy being born is busy dying.”

This Halloween month, America looks super-busy preparing for the death of something, maybe itself. Surely many now live in terror of the malevolent blob that the US government has become, led by a very paragon of ghouls, “Joe Biden.” This week, the blob declared in a “leak” to Newsweek magazine, that supporters of Donald Trump, the Golden Golem of Greatness, are now officially deemed to be enemies of the state. So, the blob that has lately subsumed the state, explicitly targets Trumpists (the MAGA crowd) for wholesale persecution, cancellation, de-personing, and incarceration. That is, opponents of the blob regime organizing for the coming election will be systematically neutralized and/or liquidated, taken off the game-board one way or another, by any means necessary.

The blobistas would do well to take heed of those Halloween lawn displays. A stupendous, howling rage is building across this land in revolt against the blob’s monumental insults to a once proud and productive people. Soon, that plastic totem army of stock mythological monsters cavorting in the front yards will be superseded by real flesh-and-blood Americans aiming to shred the blob and scatter its quivering tatters to the four winds - as John F. Kennedy once remarked of the CIA in 1962, before it killed him in retaliation.

Coincidentally, a scion of the JFK generation now running for president on an as-yet-to-be-specified independent party seeks to do exactly what his uncle promised to do. As you gaze on this developing battlefield, you will now see two sizable armies marshaling against the unholy hosts of blobbery - Mr. Trump’s MAGAs and Bobby Kennedy’s emerging division representing the old stoic virtues betrayed by vicious blob tyrants. The plausible outcomes on this battlefield are in flux thirteen months before the election. But it looks a little like the blob is outflanked; hence, its growing desperation.

The psychodrama in the House of Representatives this week looked like a possible inflection point in the blob’s war against the American people. Mr. Gaetz evicted the quisling Speaker Kevin McCarthy in a rather brave gambit, opening up the possibility of unifying his party against the programmatic wickedness of the post-Covid-19 era - the suicidal spending, the insane and unnecessary Ukraine proxy war, traitorous refusal to control the southern border, the official DOJ lawfare waged against half the citizenry, the disgusting official censorship campaign, and the ongoing criminal conspiracy between the pharma companies, the US public health officialdom, and shadowy globalist forces embedded in the World Health Organization, the World Economic Forum, and scores of sinister multinational organizations ranging from George Soros’s Atlantic Council to the Sinaloa Cartel.

In the background of all that - a true-life horror - lies the crumbling bond market, the foundation of the money-and-banking system that is supposed to support the on-the-ground economy that produces things of value like food and roofing shingles. The bond market is wobbling badly. As rates rise, banks’ collateral melts away and they go bust, liquidation moves to stock markets, derivatives implode, and the vast reservoirs of capital vanish. There’s your stealth true Halloween psychodrama sneaking up on the scene. Gradually, then all at once, the quarreling nation finds itself stone broke, and even the blob shrinks from the scene in horror.

It will be hard to gaslight the country anymore when that happens. That will be the sobering moment when all the preposterous, mendacious, criminally insane propositions of recent years stand nakedly exposed. That’s when “Joe Biden” begins to be seen as a dancing skeleton."

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap 10/6/23"

"Weekly News Wrap 10/6/23"
McCarthy Out, Putin Warns, CV19 Vax Keeps Killing
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"In a stunning vote, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy was voted out of office. Matt Gaetz and 10 other House Republicans sent him packing when Gaetz forced a vote. McCarthy agreed on not funding Ukraine war spending but cut a side deal to do it anyway. That, along with other things, got some Republican House members so mad they simply voted McCarthy out in a vote that surprised almost everyone including the Deep State. Now, Representative Jim Jordan looks like the leading candidate for Speaker, especially after Trump endorsed him for the job. Trump was considered as a Speaker candidate, but Trump is running for President and has too many other witch hunt court cases on his plate to do the job.

Vladimir Putin is out with new warnings about the possibility of nuclear war with weapons so advanced there is “no chance of survival.” Putin is also on record this week as saying the war in Ukraine is the fault of NATO and the West. Putin said, “We did not start the war in Ukraine, we are trying to finish it.” Is Russia going to try to give a final knockout blow to Zelinsky and the depleted Ukraine war machine?

Every week more people are documented to have “died suddenly” with “no cause of death listed.” Of course, it’s the effects of the CV19 bioweapon vax. This week, we highlight a 17-year old high school student that died at her homecoming festivities. It was yet another murder from Big Pharma. Now, the Biden Administration is saying they did not force anyone to get vaxed. It this a signal that they know what is coming with nearly 700 million CV19 injections in the U.S. alone? There is no stopping what is happening. There is much more in the 55-minute newscast."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these 
stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 10/6/23.

"Shocking Prices At Sam's Club! Saving However We Can!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 10/6/23
"Shocking Prices At Sam's Club! Saving However We Can!"
"In today's vlog, We are at Sam's Club and are showing many different grocery items and going over all the prices to see how much money we can save here!"
Comments here:
o
Meanwhile, in a civilzed society...
Full screen recommended.
Travelling With Russia, 10/6/23
"Russian Typical Supermarket Tour: Pyaterochka"
"What does a Russian typical Supermarket look like inside? Together we will find out what a Pyaterochka supermarket looks like in Russia. With more than 19,000 locations in Russia, Pyaterochka really is the most Russian typical supermarket there is."
Comments here:

Thursday, October 5, 2023

"The Panic Is Just Beginning, Homeowners Forced To Sell; Financial System Going Into Shock"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/5/23
"The Panic Is Just Beginning, Homeowners Forced To Sell; 
Financial System Going Into Shock"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy (David Caballero), "Footprints On The Sea"

Gnomusy (David Caballero),
 "Footprints On The Sea"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Where did this big ball of stars come from? Palomar 6 is one of about 200 globular clusters of stars that survive in our Milky Way Galaxy. These spherical star-balls are older than our Sun as well as older than most stars that orbit in our galaxy's disk. Palomar 6 itself is estimated to be about 12.5 billion years old, so old that it is close to - and so constrains - the age of the entire universe. 
Containing about 500,000 stars, Palomar 6 lies about 25,000 light years away, but not very far from our galaxy's center. At that distance, this sharp image from the Hubble Space Telescope spans about 15 light-years. After much study including images from Hubble, a leading origin hypothesis is that Palomar 6 was created - and survives today - in the central bulge of stars that surround the Milky Way's center, not in the distant galactic halo where most other globular clusters are now found."

"Truth..."

"No one today likes truth: utility and self interest have long ago been substituted for truth. We live in a nightmare of falsehoods, and there are few who are sufficiently awake and aware to see things as they are. Our first duty is to clear away illusions and recover a sense of reality."
- Nikolai Alexandrovich Berdyaev

“If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.”
- Oscar Wilde

"Gerald Celente, Trends Journal 10/5/23"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal 10/5/23
"Where Are Markets, Economy And Ukraine War Heading?"
"In Today's TITN broadcast Gerald Celente dives deep into the current economic crisis and where it's heading. Celente also brings the latest updates in Ukraine. The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:

"Amazon Is Falling Apart Before Our Eyes As Retail Business Continues To Struggle"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 10/5/23
"Amazon Is Falling Apart Before Our Eyes 
As Retail Business Continues To Struggle"

"Are you ready for some shocking breaking news? The Wall Street Journal and Reuters just exposed that e-commerce giant Amazon is being accused by regulators of using a secret algorithm to price gouge U.S. consumers in 2023. Have you noticed that the services and products the company sells are getting significantly more expensive right now? At physical stores, shoppers are seeing huge price hikes taking place almost overnight. The situation isn’t any better on online platforms, with Amazon streaming services facing the second round of price increases in less than 10 months.

At brick-and-mortar stores, especially in the grocery segment, consumers are reporting massive price hikes happening seemingly overnight. On Reddit, several complaints reveal that the price of food staples is shooting up by more than 100% at Amazon Fresh stores. “Has anyone noticed that there has been a sharp price hike in the prices of Amazon Fresh in Capitol Hill?” one user asked, saying that the cost of a single banana went from 15 cents to 35 cents. “That's over 100% increase,” the person stressed. “I recall going there about two weeks ago and the prices were still like before, so this change seems to have happened overnight.”

Even more alarmingly, Americans are noticing that prices at the online app are spiking after they add items to their online shopping cart. A quick search of forums and social media turns up countless accounts of Amazon price hikes after browsing. Amazon is raising prices on people’s shopping carts by up to 40%, and new reports reveal the retailer is using a secret algorithm to test how much it can increase costs on the consumer before they give up on the purchase or buy the products at other retail rivals.

The existence of the algorithm, codenamed Project Nessie, was first revealed in September in a complaint filed by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) accusing Amazon of violating U.S. antitrust law. However, only yesterday details on how the algorithm operated were released. According to regulators, Nessie would inflate prices and monitor whether other retailers, like Target, would do the same. In case retail rivals maintained the lower price, the algorithm would automatically revert Amazon’s to its normal price. The FTC exposed that Nessie helped the company to vastly increase its profits by artificially increasing its prices across different shopping categories.

Retail experts say the lawsuit can break up the company, ending a decades-long empire as the court is likely to force the online retailer to sell its assets. Right now, Amazon stocks are taking a beating. Since Tuesday, shares have been dropping after the rumors began to spread. But things have taken a dramatic turn for the worst when Reuters – in an exclusive report – warned that international regulators are also launching an antimonopoly investigation into the company's dominance of the cloud computing marketplace.

The past 12 months have been particularly hard for Amazon. Shares of the e-retailer had their worst year since the dot-com crash. The stock has tumbled 51% last year, marking the biggest decline since 2000, when it plunged 80%. Right now, it is still 30% below its peak. And considering the potential billionaire lawsuits the company is facing, investors have lots of reasons to continue to exit the stock.

In retail, there’s no such thing as a break. It seems that Amazon may be the next domino to fall, and we shouldn’t be surprised to hear about more store closings, layoffs, and even bankruptcy if the retailer doesn’t come up with a plan to fix things up soon enough."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Surrey, British Columbia, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"We Don’t Really Know What’s Happening"

"We Don’t Really Know What’s Happening"
by Paul Rosenberg

"And, believe it or not, this is rather good news. I’ll explain. We all like to know what’s happening in the world, and for good reason… understanding our surroundings is essential to survival. We instinctively seek information… we need information. There is, however, a problem that we face: No matter how much “news” you consume, you won’t really know what’s going on in the world.

We can’t know, because ‘the news’ is half illusion, provided by government-dependent corporations that are paid to keep you watching and to keep you joined to the status quo. Granted, they are quite good at providing pictures from disaster areas, but when it comes to explaining why the disaster happened, they mislead almost every time. Yes, some truth makes its way through the news machine, but most of it is wrapped in layers of manipulation. If, for example, you watch the news feeds all day, you’ll find a good deal of truth, but you’ll find it amongst a pile of half-truths. Do you really have enough time to analyze them all?

One Piece of Truth: The truth about public reporting comes out from time to time, but usually well after the fact. So, here’s one piece of truth that’s worth remembering: For those who don’t recall the 1970s, Daniel Ellsberg was a man who worked as an analyst at the RAND Corp., moved from there to the Pentagon, spent two years in Vietnam working for the State Department, and then went back to RAND. He is the man who leaked the Pentagon Papers in 1971. These were the documents that revealed that three US presidential administrations had been plainly, knowingly, and openly lying to the public.

Here’s what Ellsberg thought the New York Times was good for: "… to see what the rubes and the yokels are thinking about and what they think is going on and what they think the policy is…" Later, in 1998, he said this in an interview: "The public is lied to every day by the president, by his spokespeople, by his officers. If you can’t handle the thought that the president lies to the public for all kinds of reasons, you couldn’t stay in the government at that level…"

And here’s what Michael Deaver, a top aide to President Ronald Reagan, said about the press: The media I’ve had a lot to do with is lazy. We fed them and they ate it every day." That’s the truth about news, my friends. The news channels and newspapers are where the yokels get informed, presidents flatly lie, and legislatures are massively corrupt. And Internet news sites primarily recycle TV and newspaper stories.

Yes, some truth does slide through, but it looks almost the same as the other stuff. The only places we get anything close to refined truth is on a few Internet sites… and many of them have a particular axe to grind. The Internet is being funneled into Google, Facebook, and a few other friends of the state. Social media is being massively censored, and the the independents are being squeezed out anyway.

More Truth: This is what William Colby, former director of the CIA, is quoted as saying in "Derailing Democracy: The America the Media Don’t Want You to See": "The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone of any significance in the major media."

Now, since people have disputed that quotation, let’s back it up: Please consider Operation Mockingbird: Beginning in 1948, a CIA agent named Frank Wisner started gathering journalists and broadcasters… and started using them to ‘inform’ the public. The operation soon got so elaborate that other agents called it “Wisner’s Wurlitzer.” (Wurlitzer being a popular brand of organ.) In other words, Wisner played the media like a musical instrument.

While the real situation is more complex than this short description, rest assured that every major news organization in every major country is manipulated by intelligence groups. Where do you think they get all those “unnamed sources”? If you were an intel operator, wouldn’t you do precisely that? You’d be considered derelict not to. So, you can rely upon this fact.

And So…I could continue listing facts, but there’s no real point. The crucial thing is to accept the truth: The news is worked over before it reaches us. We do know some facts, of course, and a generation from now we may learn nearly the whole truth about some of these events, but only if we wait and then go out of our way to find it.

The good news in all of this comes when we accept the facts and stop running our brains on bad information. Yes, it would be nice to know what’s really going on, but we don’t, and there isn’t much we can do about it. So, it’s time to stop treating the news seriously.

So long as the guv-megacorp-intel structure remains, it will enforce our ignorance. That’s what such organizations do, by their very nature. To expect differently is like expecting a dog to sprout wings and fly. But once we accept that fact, we stop being spun around by the talking heads and their handlers. And then, you can start building the kind of world you’d like to live in."

"Only One Question..."

"There's only one question that matters, and it's the one you never get around to asking. People are capable of varying degrees of truth. The majority spend their entire lives fabricating an elaborate skein of lies, immersing themselves in the faith of bad faith, doing whatever it takes to feel safe. The person who truly lives has precious few moments of safety, learns to thrive in any kind of storm. It's the truth you can stare down stone-cold that makes you what you are. Weak or strong. Live or die. Prove yourself. How much truth can you take?"
- Karen Marie Moning

"Golden Disobedience"

"Golden Disobedience"
By Sandy Sandfort

"Inertia is a human frailty. Too often, we go along to get along. We conform. Because of this, those who claim authority can get most of us to do their bidding if it comes with a plausible justification and is only incremental. We get nickel-and-dimed to death, the death of a thousand cuts.

Back on April 5, 1933, His Majesty, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR), had a pen and a telephone. So he issued Executive Order 6102, which made it a federal crime for Americans to own or trade gold anywhere in the world. There were some minor exceptions for some jewelry, industrial uses, collectors’ coins, and dental gold, but the vast majority of the gold had to be turned in.

My father instantly understood what was going on and he didn’t like it. “They’re going to devalue the dollar!” he predicted. Roosevelt didn’t give much time to comply either. The deadline was May 1. And if Americans did not comply, they faced criminal prosecution under the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917. Scofflaws were looking at a fine of up to $10,000 (1933 dollars, about a third of a million dollars today) and up to ten years in prison.

My parents made the conscious decision to become outlaws. At every possible opportunity for the next three weeks (and substantially longer), my parents followed Gresham’s law (“Bad money drives out good.”), not federal law. They spent paper and collected gold. My father was a dentist, so he could own some dental gold, but that wasn’t enough. He wanted to covert as much paper into gold as possible. So he gave his patients discounts for payment in gold. “Sam,” a neighbor who was a banker, also helped collect gold for himself and my parents. They would repay his help later when they periodically ‘laundered’ gold for him and themselves.

Even after the deadline, gold still kept coming in. Mostly it was from people who didn’t have the time or the inclination to turn in their gold to the government. However, many feared prosecution and were happy to deal with my parents instead of FDR. Plus they got a better deal.

So where did they launder their tidy little nest egg? Why, “South of the Border, Down Mexico Way,” of course. Mexico had no Executive Order 6102. My mother was born in the mountains above Albuquerque, New Mexico, and spoke fluent Spanish. She and my father loved traveling though the backwaters of Mexico. At first, they traveled alone, and later, after my brother and I came along, the whole family (including the dog) would go exploring in the land of mañana. (Somewhere there is a picture of me, age one, sitting on a portable potty, experiencing my first-ever bout with “Montezuma’s revenge.”)

My parents carried whatever gold they intended to sell, stashed in the car or on their person. The usual routine was to go to the section of town where casas de cambio were found. (Think of it as the “Street of the Money Changers.”) My mother – all 5’1” of her – would go down the street and show a gold double eagle to every money changer at every kiosk and storefront. In Spanish, she would ask, “How much will you pay for these?” When she found the best price, she would give my father the high sign. He would join her and they would conclude the deal. Sometimes the gold was theirs, sometimes, Sam’s. Sometimes they got pesos and sometimes dollars, depending on what they needed at the time. So, the ‘illicit’ gold paid for a fun trip and got converted to ‘clean’ funds for themselves and Sam. What’s the crime in that?

And the Beat Goes On…My family never showed much respect for government laws, per se. No victim, no crime, even if the government disagreed. The general ethical belief of the Sandfort family was pretty much in harmony with the Golden Rule. It had worked for cultures and religions for thousands of years and it worked for us. That was our law. Man-made laws either adhere to the Golden Rule (don’t murder people, duh) and so are unnecessary, or they violate it, such as “The War on (Some) Drugs,” so they were nominally complied with, ignored, or circumvented.

So, when wartime laws said that a seller had to follow certain rationing rules to sell his own products, many buyers and sellers simply conspired to make their own decisions. When my parents needed and could afford a new car for business, the local Chevy dealer was happy to ‘cook the books,’ take their money, and give them a new sedan.

Later, when my family traveled in that car and others, my mother would prepare food for us to eat as we drove. We stopped only for gas… and the agricultural inspection station at the California state line. Of course, we had items that we were required by law to declare, but if you hide them in your backpack or under the car seat and lie, you can save a lot of time and keep from having to throw away perfectly good food.

And then there was the time we smuggled a live Mexican iguana in a cigar box, but don’t get me started…"

Dan, I Allegedly, "Your Insurance is Canceled"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 10/5/23
"Your Insurance is Canceled"
"Imagine paying for your insurance for years and you get a letter telling you that your insurance has been canceled. Could you imagine this? Progressive insurance just announced that they joined the ranks of other insurance companies and will not be renewing policies in Florida and other states. This is horrible news for people."
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"How It Really Is"


"Bond Market Meltdown"

"Bond Market Meltdown"
Are stocks next?
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Poitou, France - "It was a joke. A spoof. A send-up. Or…maybe not. We refer to the “Report from Iron Mountain.” Published in 1967, it was a bestseller. And yet, Lyndon Johnson ‘hit the roof’ when he read it. He wanted it banned. Most likely, it really was meant as a satire on public policy…supposedly created by government hacks themselves. It claimed to be the product of a secret panel, acting like a think tank…tackling tough issues…doing a ‘deep dive’ into the logic of US foreign policy. It was all a lie; but the surprise was – the important insights were far truer than anything you could get from The New York Times.

We interrupt this program with a news flash. Reuters: "LONDON (Reuters) - A rout in government bond markets deepened on Wednesday with U.S. yields reaching their highest in 16 years, souring appetite for riskier assets as investors bet that interest rates will remain persistently high, boding ill for the world economy.

The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield rose 6.9 basis points (bps) to 4.872%, its highest since 2007, after climbing nearly a dozen bps on Tuesday's job openings data that pointed to resilience in the U.S. economy.

Thirty-year Treasury yields rose above 5% for the first time since August 2007, just before the global financial crisis.

European bonds followed suit, with yields on Germany's benchmark 10-year debt rising above 3% for the first time since 2011. The country's 30-year yield climbed to its latest 12-year high."

The Fed giveth absurdly low interest rates, which encouraged the world to take on $307 trillion in debt. Now, Mr. Market taketh away the excess. That’s why we’ve included no bonds in our allocation portfolio.

The Meltdown Arrives: Here’s the view from Bloomberg: "Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble." "Losses on longer-dated Treasuries are beginning to rival some of the most notorious market meltdowns in US history. Bonds maturing in 10 years or more have slumped 46% since peaking in March 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s just shy of the 49% plunge in US stocks in the aftermath of the dot-com bust at the turn of the century. The rout in 30-year bonds has been even worse, tumbling 53%, nearing the 57% slump in equities during the depths of the financial crisis."

Our guess: stocks will follow. But let us return to our regularly scheduled programming. Today, we’re looking at how the crusading spirit makes it almost impossible to return to a normal economy and a more civilized nation. The Guardian: "DeSantis Invokes China ‘Boogeyman’ Narrative Amid Flailing Campaign." "It was a desperately needed moment of grandeur for Ron DeSantis: the Florida governor’s strongman act over China briefly lifting his stuttering presidential campaign during last week’s Republican primary debate in California.

But what DeSantis left unsaid as he railed against China’s growing global influence, while promising a “hard power” approach to Beijing should he win the White House, was how his posturing was hurting students and families back in his home state. DeSantis stripped four private schools of state scholarship money, alleging without evidence they had “direct ties to the Chinese Communist Party”.

Stoking Fear: Are ‘direct ties to the Chinese Communist Party’ a bad thing? How about direct ties to the Republican party? How about the party across the street? Here’s Percy Allan to explain it: "Stoking fear of China is a vote-winner across party lines. Indeed, hatred of China is now the single issue that unites Democrats and Republicans. Biden referred to China as “bad people” who when they have problems do “bad things.”

The demonization of China has clearly worked. The 2023 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 83% of Americans hold negative views of China. The share who says China is an “enemy” is now 38%. An IPSOS poll found one-third of Americans view China as an imminent threat and two in five Americans think that war with China is likely in the next five years."

Are the Chinese ‘bad people?’ Bad like Germans in 1914? Bad like Muslims in the 12th century? Coincidentally, yesterday marked the day in 1147 that the French army, commanded by Louis VII arrived at the gates of Constantinople. It had come all the way from Vezelay in France, gathering more soldiers, adventurers and camp followers along the way. Bernard of Clairvaux was a marvelous speaker, apparently. In every town, he mounted pulpits or scaffolds and roused the rabble to leave their ordinary lives, ‘take up the cross’ and follow him on this Great Crusade against the Moors, Saracens, Arabs, and all other Muslims.

Surely, the Muslims were bad. Everyone said so! And so the great host of Louis VII lumbered, stumbled, dragged itself down through kingdoms and duchies, towns and farms. The locals hid their wives and daughters, their tools and treasures. The mob was an unruly collection of misfits, ne’er-do-wells, and rogues…along with a few knights and true believers, who actually thought they were making the world a better place. And they all needed to eat.

The Road to Damascus: Louis was to be joined there, at Constantinople, by another large, and in some ways perhaps even more disagreeable army, composed mostly of German speakers, led by the Holy Roman Emperor himself, Conrad III. And of course, it was not long before the two groups were fighting each other. It was partly to avoid internal conflict, we suppose, that the two armies decided to take different routes to the Holy Land.

Constantinople was the headquarters of the Eastern Empire. It was inhabited by Christians. But they were Eastern Orthodox, not subject to the church of Rome. Emperor Manuel Comnenus may have had mixed feelings about the crusader cause. But he was clear about one thing: he wanted to get rid of this horde of “Latin thugs and barbarians” as quickly as possible. He arranged for them to be ferried across the Bosporus so they could continue their march to Jerusalem. He cautioned them to stick to the longer route along the coast of what is today Turkey. Cutting through the heart of Anatolia was likely to bring conflict with the Seljuk Turks.

The French followed his instruction. The Germans took their chances overland and were almost wiped out by the Turks at the battle of Dorylaeum. Many Germans who weren’t killed were taken captive and sold into slavery. Finally, the ragtag remnants of both German and French forces arrived in the Holy Land. At the time, Damascus, was perhaps the only major city in the area that might have been a useful ally and perhaps a refuge and source of supplies. Nevertheless, the crusaders decided to attack it. The assault failed. John Julius Norwich described what happened next:

"There is no part of the Syrian desert more shattering to the spirit than that dark-gray, featureless expanse of sand and basalt that lies between Damascus and Tiberias. Retreating across it in the height of the Arabian summer, the remorseless sun and scorching desert wind full in their faces, harried incessantly by mounted Arab archers and leaving a stinking trail of dead men and horses in their wake, the Crusaders must have felt despair heavy upon them.

The crusader spirit dimmed. But the flame did not die out. There came a Third Crusade…and then a Fourth Crusade (in which the crusaders, led by a blind Venetian doge attacked Constantinople)…and a Children’s Crusade (in which thousands of children were sent off…and later starved, or sold into slavery…nobody knows for sure what happened to them)."

In all, there were 8 crusades – all unnecessary, pointless, and fruitless. Why so many? Why any at all …then or now? That’s what the ‘Report from Iron Mountain’ explains…Stay tuned."
o
Joel’s Note: Meanwhile, back to the bond market meltdown… Dan sent us another fugly chart this morning. Sensitive readers may wish to avert their eyes…
Click image for larger size.
“AGG is the ETF that tracks the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index,” explains Dan, “the biggest bond ETF and a proxy of all bonds (government, corporate, Fannie, Freddie, Ginnne, asset backed securities, mortgage backed securities, and commercial mortgage backed securities).” Unlike TLT, which we featured in this space yesterday and which is only long-term government bonds, AGG hasn't made a new multi-year low. “Not yet,” adds Dan.

As noted above, rates have lately spiked to their highest levels since 2007… right before a Niagara of subprime mortgage defaults swamped the markets, dragging down some of the nation’s largest banks and financial institutions along with it. So, what’s pushing up rates this time? Dan, again…

“Some say it's fiscal policy. The national debt went up over $250 billion...on Tuesday alone! The Feds will have to sell more debt at higher rates...and finance old debt at higher rates. It's the fiscal 'doom loop' that makes net interest expense the single highest line item in the budget. Meanwhile falling stock, house, and bond prices reduce federal tax revenues...for bigger deficits. And all of that BEFORE a recession...which our Doom Index is saying is nigh. Stay safe. And watch your wallet.”

Unlike government statistics – which are routinely “revised” after the fact, and which vainly attempt to capture esoteric, egg-headed nonsense anyway – BPR’s Doom Index 2.0 actually measures real world indicators… things like rig counts, oil tanker counts, shipping container activity, commercial real estate, etc… to get a feel for how the real economy is doing. Again, that’s real people, exchanging real goods and services in the real world economy."
o
Freely download
"Report From Iron Mountain On The 
Possibility And Desirability Of Peace"

"Russia - Ukraine War Update 10/5/23"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 10/5/23
"Warning! Something BIG Is Happening
 In Ukraine, Putin Stays Quiet"
"Something big is about to happen in Ukraine. Is Putin about to launch a pre-winter offensive now that Ukraine has exhausted all of its resources? Logistical signs are showing newly built railway tracks and large troop movements on the Russian side. Also multiple reports over the past 48 hours show an increased number of young Ukrainian men racing to get the hell out of Ukraine."
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https://www.youtube.com/
o
Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 10/5/23
"How Much Longer Can Ukraine Last? 
w/Prof Jeffrey Sachs"
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o
Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 10/5/23
"American Neocons and Their Global Community 
w/Alastair Crooke fmr British Ambassador"
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"Shopping With Danno At Kroger!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 10/5/23
"Shopping With Danno At Kroger! Coffee, Soups, 
Baking Items, Crackers, Chips, Laundry Detergent!"
"We are at Kroger and taking advantage of some of these different sales this week. Shop with me as we show all the greatest deals and items everyone should be buying before the prices go up again!"
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Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 10/5/23"

'It's a Big Club and you ain't in it.
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
All you get, Good Citizen, are the consequences...
Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/5/23
"The FED Has Intervened! 
Bank Crisis, Credit Crisis, Stock Market Hyperbubble, More!"
Comments here:
o
Gregory Mannariino, PM 10/5/23
"Be Ready For The Biggest Housing Crash In World History!"
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Addison Wiggin, "The Great Complacency, Still"

"The Great Complacency, Still"
By Addison Wiggin

“When Americans are faced with the prospect that they can never earn their way to wealth, they have two choices: to rebel against the system, or to settle into depressed complacency.”
- Ben Shapiro

"Not too long after we sat down to write this yesterday afternoon, all the cell phones in our house sounded an alarm at once. But, you already know that. Every cell phone in America went off at 2:20pm EST, ringing with a mass message from The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The aim? The government wants to be sure it can “effectively warn the public about emergencies, particularly those on the national level.” “Spooky,” Henry wrote from an Amtrak train headed north from New York up north to New England. “The government is tapped into all our devices.” He described the whole train’s momentary confusion at the collective notification. Then people settled back into complacency within moments. 

The bond market sounded a short burst alarm of its own yesterday. Yields on the 10-year Treasury spiked to 4.9% at 1:30pm. The 30-yr broke through 5%. Both are the highest yields on offer since 2007, just prior to the Panic of ‘08. In part the spike was in response to Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy getting ousted from his seat. That and bond traders are betting the government will have an increasingly difficult time funding its ventures in the mid-to-long term and demanding higher returns for their willingness to go along with the charade.

Rising yields, and by extension, falling prices on the 10-year typically result in an immediate sell-off in stocks.  Dutifully the Dow dropped into negative territory for the year. The last time it flirted with losses was on May 25, 2023. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both opened trading today at their lowest point since September 26. Both are trying to put on a brave face today. And remain in positive territory year to date. We’ll see how long the green can hold out, right? 

Higher Treasuries yields typically portend recession, too. Yesterday, stocks dependent on consumer spending took a beating with both Carnival and AirBnB shedding a couple bucks each. 

As you know, we’re working on a video project we call The Great American Shell Game. In it we identify several trends in place you’ll want to pay attention to. A ‘shell game’ is a swindling trick in which a small pea or coin is quickly shifted from under one to another of three walnut shells or cups to fool the spectator trying to guess its location. It’s one of the oldest and most widespread forms of ‘sleight of hand’.

So it goes with The Great American Shell Game. With the right hand the government and the corporate media want you to look at all “they” are doing to address multiple crises in society. With the left hand are the real causes and effects of these crises, you as a citizen, a voter - even as a normal human being - have to deal with. Your money is always at stake.

We’re concerned that three concurrent trends will develop into full blown future “crises” – and maybe all at the same time. First, Americans are all but tapped out. Their savings from the pandemic and government stimmie-gimmiechecks have gone poof and credit card debt recently ballooned past the $1trillion dollar mark.  We expect consumer stocks like Carnival and AirBnB to continue to be under strain… along with Big Box stores like Home Depot and sporting goods incumbent Dick’s. 

Yet, The Great Complacency (a term we laid claim to in July) continues, business as usual.  Not until the big companies on the S&P 500 start undergoing their own “balance sheet recessions” will soon-to-be retirees start gasping when looking at their own 401(k) balances. That day is, we suspect, closer than your average buy-and-hold, “my financial advisor’s got my back” investor thinks. 

The big retailers we have on our radar are also the ones getting hit in cities all over the country by “smash, grab and go” parties… groups of thugs breaking windows and looting stores in Philadelphia, Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago… even here in Baltimore. It’s not surprising, really. When “consumers” are stretched financially and there’s a high level of economic anxiety bad stuff tends to happen. 

Neither does it take a genius to figure out why there are hundreds of thousands of people on strike, currently.  Autoworkers, writers and actors have grabbed the headlines. But healthcare and hospitality are next. Nearly 80,000 essential workers at Kaiser Permanente may be going on strike as early as today. CVS is experiencing a wave of mysterious no shows from its pharmacists. Tens of thousands of hospitality workers in Las Vegas have voted to walk out. 

The last time “labor” was this emboldened was the late 1970s and early 80s when the US economy was on equally shaky ground.  Throw in a real estate, infrastructure and debt crisis in China… the end of “cheap” as a trade war and reshoring promise to make everything  more expensive… and the most divisive political environment in the U.S. in decades… and you’ve got a global recipe for disaster. 

The election year 2024 promises to be a difficult one… not just for the stock market… but for the economy… and the social fabric of society.  Given the trends in place right now, we believe all bets are off. The ousting of Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker might serve as a fitting microcosm of a greater American issue. “The House is in chaos,” headlines from CNN, Bloomberg and MSNBC screamed this morning. It’s true, but the real trouble is, it’s not just the House of Representatives. 

Since reaching an adult state of consciousness, I’ve been suspicious of the Rove “wedge issue” strategies used to win elections because of their base appeal to tribalism. But, this year... going into the primaries, then the election itself, it’s going to be explosive and violent, no matter who gains the upper hand. From what I can see, the strategists like it this way, diabolically. Unfortunately, it’ll be the 80% of the people in the middle – the ones who don’t really give a crotte as long as they’re doing fairly well and can take care of those they love... they’re the ones who pay the price for the power lust of a very small minority of our population. 

The Constitution helps. The writers saw a lot of this political shenanigans in Europe and ancient history. They built some very good guardrails. So we have that going for us. I only wish they foresaw career politicians and put stricter term requirements or limits in Clause 3.  Like you, I’m assuming, I believe the political divide in this country is so irrational and nonsensical, politics itself is the greatest threat to our security and prosperity. 

Politics have always been retarded in the sense that the messaging has to be reduced to the lowest common denominator to reach and cajole the widest number of people. This year feels like a turning point in US history to someplace new and uncharted. It’s hard to forecast where that’ll be. So it goes. It’s the nature of politics going back to Cain and Abel.

McCarthy is the first Speaker of the House to be formally removed from the post in US History. Now, we’re in uncharted territory indeed. To which, we repeat these ominous words from the economic historian Niall Ferguson: "This decade will not be identical to the 1970s. Now will it replicate the experience of the 1920s or the 1940s. But the idea that we can recover from the fiscal and monetary excesses of the past three years without economic pain - at a time of political polarization and geopolitical conflict - seems historically implausible."

“For economists,” a report from Bloomberg Economics opines, “the past few years have provided a lesson in humility. Confronted with the seismic shocks from the pandemic and Ukraine war, forecasting models that worked fine in good times have now completely missed the mark.” To Bloomberg’s list, we’d add the disruption of Bidenomics synthetically engineering a boom in EVs and chip stocks and the uncertain future of the rapid invasion by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in markets, economics or society. 

We’re not expecting FEMA to use their all-phones emergency alert to signal a top in the stock market or the beginning of a serious recession, or another “insurrection” for that matter.  Most people would likely return to their full state of complacency soon after the alarm, anyway. Frankly, it’s up to you and me, each of us, individually, to recognize the trends and be prepared for the actual emergency when it does arrive. ‘Cuz you know it’s going to.

Sauve qui peut..."

"Sauve qui peut..."
Save himself who can, run for your life!

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Jeremiah Babe, "Banks Are Bracing For Impact, You Should Too"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/4/23
"Banks Are Bracing For Impact, You Should Too"
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The Car Market Crash Has Already Begun And It Will Trigger A 50% Price Wipe Out This Fall

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist 10/4/23
"The Car Market Crash Has Already Begun And 
It Will Trigger A 50% Price Wipe Out This Fall"

"Did you know that some new car models have already seen prices collapse by 42% this year¿ That’s what a recent Forbes report has exposed. What we’re seeing right now in the auto market is the classic narrative of an asset class that went up in price too fast, resulting in a massive bubble. However, even as work stoppages disrupt production at some car plants, dealerships still have an oversupply of vehicles, and demand is simply not there anymore. That’s why they’re cutting prices faster than at any other period in the past ten years. New cars, used cars, and electric vehicles are all facing a reckoning right now, signaling that the feared car market crash is finally starting to accelerate. 

The unprecedented challenges caused by the pandemic, such as factory shutdowns and chip shortages, are behind us by now. Car production is up, and new car inventory has rebounded from supply chain-induced shortages, with popular models having over 90 days of supply at dealer lots. Used car prices fell by 6.6% in the previous month, and lost over 20% of their value since mid-2022. Without so many choking points interrupting manufacturing and delivery of vehicles in 2023, the conditions that supported record car price growth in the past few years are no longer in place. That means balance is finally being restored. As of August 31, the last time this type of data was updated, the average transaction price of a new vehicle had dropped by almost $2,000, to $48,165, according to Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company. That was the largest decrease in the past decade, and analysts say this is just the beginning. 

Today, domestic car inventories are almost 30% higher than they were just a couple of years ago when lots only had 60 days of supply available. In fact, Cox data shows that three vehicle segments had average transaction prices below $30,000 in August – compact cars, subcompact cars, and subcompact SUVs. Meanwhile, average luxury vehicle prices fell to $64,107, declining by more than 4%, since the start of the year. 

These figures may seem small, but they are actually remarkable considering that some experts were expecting a 5% gain in the second half of the year. They indicate that new car prices are no longer climbing, but starting their descending journey. The only thing preventing a full-blown crash at this moment is interest rates. They may determine how fast new vehicle prices will drop in the coming months. To truly understand the depth of this crisis, let’s look at the dire state of the U.S. electric vehicle market. 

A new analysis by CarGuru shared by Forbes shows that EV prices are dropping like a rock. So far in 2023, the Tesla Model S faced a 42.1% price crash, from $73,751 to $42,669. 2023 is being the most devastating year for electric cars in terms of falling prices. Cox reported that the average transaction price for a new electric vehicle is down 20% already, from $66,390 to $53,438. It’s important to remember that a year ago, demand for these cars was so high that prices hit a peak of almost $75,000. 

In the coming months, you should prepare to see even more inventory at dealerships, and even deeper price cuts. As a consumer, you should stay informed with news to make clever decisions when purchasing a new car. Now, we’re still in the calm before the storm. It is time to wait. Conditions are combining to spark the biggest car market crash of our lifetime, and we can’t miss that opportunity when it finally happens."
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Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

Full screen recommended.
Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"