"The Great Complacency, Still"
By Addison Wiggin
“When Americans are faced with the prospect that they can never earn their way to wealth, they have two choices: to rebel against the system, or to settle into depressed complacency.”
- Ben Shapiro
"Not too long after we sat down to write this yesterday afternoon, all the cell phones in our house sounded an alarm at once. But, you already know that. Every cell phone in America went off at 2:20pm EST, ringing with a mass message from The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The aim? The government wants to be sure it can “effectively warn the public about emergencies, particularly those on the national level.” “Spooky,” Henry wrote from an Amtrak train headed north from New York up north to New England. “The government is tapped into all our devices.” He described the whole train’s momentary confusion at the collective notification. Then people settled back into complacency within moments.
The bond market sounded a short burst alarm of its own yesterday. Yields on the 10-year Treasury spiked to 4.9% at 1:30pm. The 30-yr broke through 5%. Both are the highest yields on offer since 2007, just prior to the Panic of ‘08. In part the spike was in response to Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy getting ousted from his seat. That and bond traders are betting the government will have an increasingly difficult time funding its ventures in the mid-to-long term and demanding higher returns for their willingness to go along with the charade.
Rising yields, and by extension, falling prices on the 10-year typically result in an immediate sell-off in stocks. Dutifully the Dow dropped into negative territory for the year. The last time it flirted with losses was on May 25, 2023. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both opened trading today at their lowest point since September 26. Both are trying to put on a brave face today. And remain in positive territory year to date. We’ll see how long the green can hold out, right?
Higher Treasuries yields typically portend recession, too. Yesterday, stocks dependent on consumer spending took a beating with both Carnival and AirBnB shedding a couple bucks each.
As you know, we’re working on a video project we call The Great American Shell Game. In it we identify several trends in place you’ll want to pay attention to. A ‘shell game’ is a swindling trick in which a small pea or coin is quickly shifted from under one to another of three walnut shells or cups to fool the spectator trying to guess its location. It’s one of the oldest and most widespread forms of ‘sleight of hand’.
So it goes with The Great American Shell Game. With the right hand the government and the corporate media want you to look at all “they” are doing to address multiple crises in society. With the left hand are the real causes and effects of these crises, you as a citizen, a voter - even as a normal human being - have to deal with. Your money is always at stake.
We’re concerned that three concurrent trends will develop into full blown future “crises” – and maybe all at the same time. First, Americans are all but tapped out. Their savings from the pandemic and government stimmie-gimmiechecks have gone poof and credit card debt recently ballooned past the $1trillion dollar mark. We expect consumer stocks like Carnival and AirBnB to continue to be under strain… along with Big Box stores like Home Depot and sporting goods incumbent Dick’s.
Yet, The Great Complacency (a term we laid claim to in July) continues, business as usual. Not until the big companies on the S&P 500 start undergoing their own “balance sheet recessions” will soon-to-be retirees start gasping when looking at their own 401(k) balances. That day is, we suspect, closer than your average buy-and-hold, “my financial advisor’s got my back” investor thinks.
The big retailers we have on our radar are also the ones getting hit in cities all over the country by “smash, grab and go” parties… groups of thugs breaking windows and looting stores in Philadelphia, Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago… even here in Baltimore. It’s not surprising, really. When “consumers” are stretched financially and there’s a high level of economic anxiety bad stuff tends to happen.
Neither does it take a genius to figure out why there are hundreds of thousands of people on strike, currently. Autoworkers, writers and actors have grabbed the headlines. But healthcare and hospitality are next. Nearly 80,000 essential workers at Kaiser Permanente may be going on strike as early as today. CVS is experiencing a wave of mysterious no shows from its pharmacists. Tens of thousands of hospitality workers in Las Vegas have voted to walk out.
The last time “labor” was this emboldened was the late 1970s and early 80s when the US economy was on equally shaky ground. Throw in a real estate, infrastructure and debt crisis in China… the end of “cheap” as a trade war and reshoring promise to make everything more expensive… and the most divisive political environment in the U.S. in decades… and you’ve got a global recipe for disaster.
The election year 2024 promises to be a difficult one… not just for the stock market… but for the economy… and the social fabric of society. Given the trends in place right now, we believe all bets are off. The ousting of Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker might serve as a fitting microcosm of a greater American issue. “The House is in chaos,” headlines from CNN, Bloomberg and MSNBC screamed this morning. It’s true, but the real trouble is, it’s not just the House of Representatives.
Since reaching an adult state of consciousness, I’ve been suspicious of the Rove “wedge issue” strategies used to win elections because of their base appeal to tribalism. But, this year... going into the primaries, then the election itself, it’s going to be explosive and violent, no matter who gains the upper hand. From what I can see, the strategists like it this way, diabolically. Unfortunately, it’ll be the 80% of the people in the middle – the ones who don’t really give a crotte as long as they’re doing fairly well and can take care of those they love... they’re the ones who pay the price for the power lust of a very small minority of our population.
The Constitution helps. The writers saw a lot of this political shenanigans in Europe and ancient history. They built some very good guardrails. So we have that going for us. I only wish they foresaw career politicians and put stricter term requirements or limits in Clause 3. Like you, I’m assuming, I believe the political divide in this country is so irrational and nonsensical, politics itself is the greatest threat to our security and prosperity.
Politics have always been retarded in the sense that the messaging has to be reduced to the lowest common denominator to reach and cajole the widest number of people. This year feels like a turning point in US history to someplace new and uncharted. It’s hard to forecast where that’ll be. So it goes. It’s the nature of politics going back to Cain and Abel.
McCarthy is the first Speaker of the House to be formally removed from the post in US History. Now, we’re in uncharted territory indeed. To which, we repeat these ominous words from the economic historian Niall Ferguson: "This decade will not be identical to the 1970s. Now will it replicate the experience of the 1920s or the 1940s. But the idea that we can recover from the fiscal and monetary excesses of the past three years without economic pain - at a time of political polarization and geopolitical conflict - seems historically implausible."
“For economists,” a report from Bloomberg Economics opines, “the past few years have provided a lesson in humility. Confronted with the seismic shocks from the pandemic and Ukraine war, forecasting models that worked fine in good times have now completely missed the mark.” To Bloomberg’s list, we’d add the disruption of Bidenomics synthetically engineering a boom in EVs and chip stocks and the uncertain future of the rapid invasion by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in markets, economics or society.
We’re not expecting FEMA to use their all-phones emergency alert to signal a top in the stock market or the beginning of a serious recession, or another “insurrection” for that matter. Most people would likely return to their full state of complacency soon after the alarm, anyway. Frankly, it’s up to you and me, each of us, individually, to recognize the trends and be prepared for the actual emergency when it does arrive. ‘Cuz you know it’s going to.
Sauve qui peut..."
"Sauve qui peut..."
Save himself who can, run for your life!
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