Wednesday, March 29, 2023

"Middle Class Blues"

"Middle Class Blues"
Plus, sinking real estate, Marx vs. Lachmann,
 dividing the elites and plenty more...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

San Martin, Argentina - "Uh oh. More bad news for the middle class. Fortune: "National home prices fall for the seventh straight month. On Tuesday, we learned that U.S. home prices as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell for the seventh straight month in January. Since peaking in June, U.S. home prices have fallen 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, and 5% without seasonal adjustment. That 3% drop in single-family house prices marks the second-biggest home price correction of the post–World War II era."

And this from the Wall Street Journal: "Most Americans Doubt Their Children Will Be Better Off, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds."An overwhelming share of Americans aren’t confident their children’s lives will be better than their own, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC Poll that shows growing skepticism about the value of a college degree and record-low levels of overall happiness."

Today and tomorrow, we look at it from a different angle…and see why it is likely to get whacked even harder.

“Don’t Fight the Fed” Karl Marx believed the driving force of social/political/economic history was the struggle between the classes. Richard Lachmann believed it was the struggle within various elite groups. Lachmann is probably more right than Marx. The masses pay taxes. They vote for their leaders. They die in wars. But they are not the deciders. Even revolutions are usually led by disenchanted members of the elite, not by the common man.

Lachmann is probably right, too, when he says the actual course of events is an accident…the product of competition between elite factions, along with unpredictable technological and social developments.

Not interested in macro, socio-historical blah-blah? We aren’t either. But ‘don’t fight the Fed’ has been good advice for the last 40 years. Will it be good advice for the next 40? The Fed controls monetary policy. And the federal government controls fiscal policy. Between the two of them, they decide the future of the US dollar…and the US economy. Naturally, we want to know what they’re up to.

Remember, is not by guessing, one day to the next, about stock prices, that you really make money on Wall Street. Instead, it is by being in the right place at the right time…and staying there as the Primary Trend runs its course. Recall, too, that the Primary Trend reversed itself – after 4 decades – in two turnarounds. The bond market hit a record high in July 2020. The last time it had done that was around the time we were born – in 1948. Since 2020, it has been going down.

And the stock market topped out at the end of 2021. The Dow rose over 36,000. It has been dropping ever since…with tempting bounces along the way. (One of the endearing features of a bear market is that it tries to take as many investors as possible down with it. Over the 40 years, 1982-2922, investors learned to BTFD [buy the dip]; now, every bounce leads them back into dip-buying…and then the market dips again.)

But back to Lachmann…Divide the Conquerors. In short, he may be on to something. And it may help us understand what is coming next. The elite have approximately $50 trillion in new wealth, thanks to the policy choices of their compadres at the Fed and the federal government over the last 30 years. Congress spent money it did not have. And the Fed financed the deficits at ultra-low interest rates. Those low rates were responsible for an orgy of borrowing and spending that 1) raised corporate profits and asset prices, 2) provided vast funds for elite projects (such as stock buybacks…the invasion of Iraq…the Covid Lockdown…), and 3) led to today’s $90 trillion debt burden.

Historically, the US could comfortably carry debt equal to 1.5 times GDP. That is, for every dollar of output (GDP) we could afford $1.50 worth of claims against it (debt). But the Fed’s way-too-low, for way-too-long interest rate policy distorted the old relationships. Had normal interest rates produced normal debt levels, we’d have total debt today of about $40 trillion. Instead, we have $90 trillion…or $50 trillion too much.

Who will decide what happens to the excess? Not the voters! The deciders will decide. And there are only two broad possibilities. Deflation or inflation. Either the excesses are reckoned with in the traditional, honest way – with bankruptcies, defaults, and market crashes. Or, they are inflated away.

Clearly, the elite prefer inflation, because much of the ultimate cost will fall on the public, not on themselves. But here is where it gets interesting. Lachmann tells us that when the elite is divided, it often cannot get what it wants. Republicans vs. Democrats…conservatives vs. liberals…left vs. right – are the internal divisions so deep that the elite cannot stick together… and stick it to the common man? Tune in tomorrow for more…"

Joel’s Note: "While residential real estate prices continue their downturn, analysts have their noses to the screens monitoring the looming crisis in the $20 trillion commercial real estate market. Here’s the Washington Post: "The initial banking crisis is easing. Another may be around the corner. Commercial real estate could become a problem for midsize banks. Federal authorities still grappling with the banking crisis caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank are already beginning to worry about the next potential bomb to go off in the nation’s financial system.

In the White House, Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, policymakers are examining the potential risks posed by the approximately $20 trillion market for commercial real estate, which some analysts project is heading for a crash over the next two years, according to four people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations."

Bonner Private Research readers will be familiar with this theme… one we’ve covered on and off for the past few months. Here’s Bill, musing just last week…"The banking sector that saw the most growth over the past 10 years was commercial real estate. In the Bubble Epoch, it paid to borrow money at very low interest rates – from banks – in order to buy commercial buildings.

But then, what happened? At first, prices rose nicely and speculators made money. Cometh the Covid Hysteria, however, the bets went bad. Buildings emptied out. And still, 3 years after Trump’s emergency decree, they’re far from back to normal. Our employees in Baltimore, for example, have learned to work from home. They don’t want to come back to the office. And as a result, we have buildings that are half empty…and some that are completely empty.

And BPR investment director, Tom Dyson, from his January report to members…"The entire commercial real estate industry operates at massive leverage. What do owners do when an asset appreciates in value? They borrow more money against it, as the owners of this building must have done. Then, because owners always seek to maximize leverage, any significant fall in property values ensures huge swathes of the industry turns into negative equity.

An article in the San Francisco Chronicle this week reports that San Francisco’s largest landlord, Veritas, has just defaulted on a $448m loan. The loan is secured by a portfolio of 1,734 rent-controlled units in 62 buildings across San Francisco." Here’s another story, from Globe St, published yesterday. A company called Chetrit Group from New York is looking to sell a portfolio of 43 buildings in order to pay off a floating rate $481m loan that it can no longer afford.

Are these stories just random misfortunes or are they the tip of an iceberg that hasn’t been revealed yet? I’m inclined to think it’s an iceberg, but we’ll have to wait and see... In San Francisco, office vacancy rates hit 30% for the first quarter of 2023. Back east, meanwhile, brokerage firm Savills calculates that close to 19% of all high-end office space in Manhattan was available for lease in the fourth quarter of 2022, up from just 11.5% in early 2019.

The pandemic sent the kids home to work… now they don’t want to come back. The situation is such that, earlier this week, the world’s sometimes-richest man, Elon Musk called the state of the commercial real estate debt market ‘by far the most serious looming issue.’ Translation: Iceberg ahead!"

Tuesday, March 28, 2023

"The American Way: No Peace, Only War. U.S. Track Record Proves It"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal" 3/28/23
"The American Way: No Peace, Only War. 
U.S. Track Record Proves It"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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"Kroger Hit By A Flood Of Store Closures As A Nightmarish Scenario For Retail Bankruptcies Begins"

Full screen recommended.
"Kroger Hit By A Flood Of Store Closures As A 
Nightmarish Scenario For Retail Bankruptcies Begins"
by Epic Economist

"Now one of the most famous grocery chains in the U.S. is getting hit by a massive wave of store closings as a nightmarish scenario for retail bankruptcies starts to unfold. Earlier this month, a spokesperson confirmed that Kroger is shuttering multiple stores, and by early 2024 over 400 locations could go dark permanently. Thousands of jobs will be slashed and many communities may lose their main grocer. And the worst part is that Kroger will not be the only one.

The news came as a surprise to many, given that Kroger has been a staple in the grocery industry for decades. "As part of a recent real estate portfolio review, we expect to close 11 stores in April," Teresa Dickerson, a Kroger spokesperson, said in a March 2 press release. "The closing stores, on average, are approximately 30% larger than our current prototype and are underperforming financially."

But according to the source, these initial closings will pale in comparison to what is coming in the months ahead. The compounding effects of lower demand and the rise of online grocery shopping and delivery services are hurting traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. The looming closures are also part of a larger restructuring plan for the struggling company.

As it attempts to save its business and snap a bigger market share in the U.S., Kroger is merging with Albertsons. However, the merger will not be completed without some deep cost-cutting efforts. The grocers will be forced to sell and close hundreds of locations. The firm reports that the merger will see between 250 and 300 Kroger and Albertsons stores sold by November 2023. On top of that, another 400 locations are going to be shuttered so that both companies can pass regulatory guidelines.

The loss of these locations combined will result in a financial hit of approximately $5 billion for the retailers. And the final number of closings could be even higher due to the fact that the grocery chains are being sued by government officials and consumers in California, Texas, and Florida, who filed a lawsuit against the deal, alleging the merger would cause increased grocery prices and fewer choices for customers.

Unfortunately, they’re not alone. There is evidence that consumer spending is falling faster than during the 2008 recession, savings are also declining and debt levels are surging at a breathtaking pace. All of this is worsening the outlook for retail. The industry has seen over 2,600 store closures in the past 12 months. In total, 391 retail companies filed for bankruptcy in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. But this year, the situation could be much more alarming.

A nightmare scenario for bankruptcies has been forming since December last year when companies reported the lowest holiday sales in over a decade. With economic activity gradually freezing, interest rates deteriorating credit conditions for businesses, and the threat of a deep recession at our door, companies should brace for expect considerably more distress in the months ahead. All signs point to a real bloodbath for the sector, and the recent store shutdowns are proof that the carnage has only just begun."
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Musical Interlude: Procol Harum, "A Salty Dog"

Procol Harum, "A Salty Dog"
"Ulysses"

"There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail:
There gloom the dark, broad seas. My mariners,
Souls that have toil'd, and wrought, and thought with me -
That ever with a frolic welcome took
The thunder and the sunshine, and opposed
Free hearts, free foreheads - you and I are old;
Old age hath yet his honor and his toil;
Death closes all: but something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.
The lights begin to twinkle from the rocks:
The long day wanes: the slow moon climbs: the deep
Moans round with many voices. Come, my friends,
'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die.
It may be that the gulfs will wash us down:
It may be we shall touch the Happy Isles,
And see the great Achilles, whom we knew.
Tho' much is taken, much abides; and tho'
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield."

- Alfred, Lord Tennyson 

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Gorgeous spiral galaxy NGC 3521 is a mere 35 million light-years away, toward the constellation Leo. Relatively bright in planet Earth's sky, NGC 3521 is easily visible in small telescopes but often overlooked by amateur imagers in favor of other Leo spiral galaxies, like M66 and M65. It's hard to overlook in this colorful cosmic portrait, though. Spanning some 50,000 light-years the galaxy sports characteristic patchy, irregular spiral arms laced with dust, pink star forming regions, and clusters of young, blue stars.
Remarkably, this deep image also finds NGC 3521 embedded in gigantic bubble-like shells. The shells are likely tidal debris, streams of stars torn from satellite galaxies that have undergone mergers with NGC 3521 in the distant past."

"Because..."

"There is much asked and only so much I think I can or should answer, and so, in this post I would like to give a few thoughts on what seemed to be the overwhelming question: "WHY?" And here is the best answer I can give: Because. Because sometimes, life is damned unfair. Because sometimes, we lose people we love and it hurts deeply. Because sometimes there aren't really answers to our questions except for what we discover, the meaning we assign them over time. Because acceptance is yet another of life's "here's a side of hurt" lessons and it is never truly acceptance unless it has cost us something to arrive there. Why, you ask? Because, I answer. Inadequate yet true."
- Libba Bray

A Must View! Gerald Celente, "The Crash That Will Change A Generation"

Full screen recommended.
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal"
"The Crash That Will Change A Generation"
"In this video, Gerald Celente discusses how governments and central banks have created an unprecedented bubble with cheap money, resulting in rising housing and equity markets that should have crashed. Although there will be a correction, he does not predict a 40% decline in housing prices. Celente highlights two wild cards that could affect the economy: inflation and military conflicts, particularly between Israel and Iran. If such conflicts occur, oil prices will rise and economies and equity markets will crash. Furthermore, the commercial office sector is likely to experience a decline, given the low occupancy rates, with businesses going bankrupt due to less commuting and business travel."
Comments here:

"Douglas Macgregor: 'Russia Is Wiping Them Out, This Is It'"

Red Pilled TV, PM 3/28/23
"Douglas Macgregor:
 'Russia Is Wiping Them Out, This Is It'"
"Douglas Macgregor is back on the show to talk about the war in Ukraine. Macgregor gives his assessment of where things stand on the ground. They talk about the astounding casualty numbers and the horrifying nature of the battle over Bakhmut. Macgregor then gives some predictions for the next stages of the war. They talk about the rising tension with China. They agree there is no need to go to war with China but discuss what may explain the sudden attention shift towards Beijing. Lastly, they talk about the effects of cronyism in the weapons industry and the probability of a nuclear war."
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Credit Freeze! We Are In A Full-On Liquidity Crisis Right Now!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/28/23
"Credit Freeze! We Are In A Full-On Liquidity Crisis Right Now!"
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Winder, Georgia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “Evidence”

“Evidence”

“Where do I live?

If I had no address, as many people do not,
 
I could nevertheless say that I lived in the 
same town as the lilies of the field,
 
and the still waters.


Spring, and all through the neighborhood 
now there are
 strong men tending flowers.
Beauty without purpose is beauty without virtue.

But all beautiful things, inherently, have this function -

to excite the viewers toward sublime thought.

Glory to the world, that good teacher.

Among the swans there is none 
called the least,
 or the greatest.
I believe in kindness. Also in mischief.
 
Also in singing, 
especially when singing is not necessarily prescribed.

As for the body, 
it is solid and strong and curious and full of detail;
 
it wants to polish itself; it wants to love another body;

it is the only vessel in the world that can hold,
 
in a mix of power and sweetness:

words, song, gesture, passion, ideas,
ingenuity, 
devotion, merriment, vanity, and virtue.
Keep some room in your heart for the unimaginable.”

- Mary Oliver
“We don’t read and write poetry because it’s cute. We read and write poetry because we are members of the human race. And the human race is filled with passion. And medicine, law, business, engineering, these are noble pursuits and necessary to sustain life. But poetry, beauty, romance, love, these are what we stay alive for! To quote from Whitman, ‘O me! O life! of the questions of these recurring; of the endless trains of the faithless - of cities filled with the foolish; what good amid these, O me, O life?’ Answer: That you are here - that life exists, and that the powerful play goes on and you may contribute a verse. What will your verse be?”
- “Dead Poets Society”

"Bamboozled..."

"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back."
- Carl Sagan

"The Things We Did Not Do..."

"Regret for the things we did can be tempered by time;
it is regret for the things we did not do that is inconsolable."
~ Sydney J. Harris

Bill Bonner, "Crossing the Calchaqui"

"Crossing the Calchaqui"
Plus, a few words for the preppers, 
alarmists and deniers alike...
By Bill Bonner

“I was thinking maybe instead of building houses, 
we could live in tepees because it’s better in a lot of ways”
~ Richie Norris, "Mars Attack"

San Martin, Argentina - "The dreaded ‘climate change’ is upon us already. We drove from our farm in the Calchaqui Valley up to Salta, taking our daughter and her husband back to the airport. All along the way, the roads were ‘feo,’ ugly. In many places, mud covered the road. In others, the road was washed out, forcing us to back up and find a way around the chasm that the water had opened up.

That this was ‘odd’ barely begins to describe the oddity of it. In our area, we say it ‘never rains.’ That was always an exaggeration. But with annual rainfall of less than 2 inches, “never” is within the range of normal linguistic tolerances. And now…suddenly, it is raining! It is raining so much that the grass is greener than ever…and the roads are practically impassible.

Almost Underwater: On the weekend, we went to visit a neighbor. His farm is very close to ours…and on the same side of the river. Normally, this time of year, we can cross the river with no problem. We don’t even need 4-wheel drive. But this time, we saw the water was higher than usual, so we went for “low 4x4” and plunged in. The water splashed over the hood. We thought we were in trouble, but the Toyota pick-up kept going and got us to the other side.

Then, we needed to cross the river again to get to our neighbor’s house. That is, we could see the house, but the river shifts and the way to cross it changes too. A local man, Domingo, showed up at the crossroads and volunteered to show us the way across. Here again, we sank deeper than ever before and wondered if we would make it across. But Domingo, in a pick-up ahead of us, kept going; we guessed that we could do it too. Sure enough, we got to the other side, had lunch, and then repeated the ordeal in reverse.

What’s going on? Is this ‘climate change?’ Or just a wet spell? The deciders and influencers in the rich and powerful G-7 countries want us to believe that this is not ‘normal.’ They say the world’s HVAC system is out of order…and we’re to blame for it. If it is too hot, the cause is ‘global climate change.’ If it is too cold, again, the culprit: global climate change. Too wet? Too dry? Too windy? Too many bugs or hurricanes? Yes, ‘global climate change,’ GCC is the explanation.

The planet…poor, distressed Mother Earth…is overburdened, the activists believe. She is like a boat with too many passengers. She is already taking on water…and soon will be sinking. GCC is not good. Climate activists know that. Here in the high valleys, we may appreciate the extra warmth. But the activists know GCC will not end well. They know the future. And they think we would all be a whole lot better off, if we could prevent it from happening.

Sinking Ships: But how? In general, GCC enthusiasts live in the rich countries. They already have the benefits that fossil fuels bring. On the great ship Earth, they have the upper, first-class cabins – with all the conveniences, including room service.

Down below decks, the common people aspire to reach the upper decks some day. And to get there, they know they have to use more energy…energy to build things…energy to produce more food…energy to move products and people. But the only kind of energy with that kind of cost/benefit payoff is the old-fashioned kind. Oil and gas, that is…the very stuff that puts out CO2 as well as usable energy…and the very thing that the elite ‘experts’ say may turn the earth into a red-hot cinder.

How to keep the ship afloat? How about heaving the poor overboard? Not literally, of course. But if the masses could only agree not to want what we’ve got, disaster might be averted. They could live in teepees, rather than energy-gobbling suburban homes. They could ride bicycles to work…and labor in un-airconditioned factories…where maybe they could produce synthetic food made out of insects. It doesn’t sound very attractive to us, but we’re talking about avoiding the extinction of our species; surely, they could make some sacrifices.

Here on the farm, we hang our heads. We have no doubt that we contribute more than our share to the world’s CO2. Our electricity all comes from solar panels. And our irrigation system works on gravity, with water running long distances through canals and eventually getting to the corn and alfalfa below.

Armageddon Ahead? But you can’t run a farm without plows, planters, rakes, balers, and combines – all of which get pulled by tractors…all of which run on diesel fuel. From 4 in the morning until 6 at night, the tractors do their work…usually, three of them at a time. One cuts. One rakes up the grass. And another spins it into large, round bales.

All of this CO2-generating work is intended to feed a herd of 500 cattle. And every one of those animals emits CO2 of its own…a by-product of its own planet-destroying digestive system. And despite the armageddon ahead, selfish people still want to eat beef. They want to drive cars, too. And turn on the AC when it gets hot.

Whether this brings the end of the world or not, we don’t know any better than anyone else. But with our pastures flush with green grass, our cattle fat…and water running abundantly in our irrigation canals, all we know for sure is that, if this is the ‘climate change’ we’ve heard about…so far, it is going our way."

"How It Really Is

 

"Stop Pretending Nothing is Wrong"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 3/28/23
"Stop Pretending Nothing is Wrong"
"So much is happening globally. People don’t have money. 
People are looking at alternatives to restart. 
Can you see an entire continent go bankrupt?"
Comments here:

"At A Time Like This..."

"At a time like this, scorching irony, not convincing argument, is needed. O! had I the ability, and could reach the nation's ear, I would, today, pour out a fiery stream of biting ridicule, blasting reproach, withering sarcasm, and stern rebuke. For it is not light that is needed, but fire; it is not the gentle shower, but thunder. We need the storm, the whirlwind, and the earthquake. The feeling of the nation must be quickened; the conscience of the nation must be roused; the propriety of the nation must be startled; the hypocrisy of the nation must be exposed; and its crimes against God and man must be proclaimed and denounced."
- Frederick Douglass

"The Russian Sledgehammer is Falling in Ukraine"

Col. Douglas Macgregor, Straight Calls 3/28/23
"The Russian Sledgehammer is Falling in Ukraine"
"Analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current 
geopolitical events in the United States of America and the world."
Comments here:
Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 3/27/23
"'Oh SH*T, We're Out Of Bullets!'
 Ukraine Admits The Truth In The War"
"In an interview with Japanese newspaper journalist Yomiuri Shimbun Zelensky talked about a lot of things. But the biggest item that he let slip is that Ukraine is out of bullets. And then he kind of drew a line in the sand, he told the newspaper that Ukraine won’t launch a counteroffensive until the West sends more weapons and ammunition."
Comments here:

"Russian 'Secret Weapon Will Destroy USA'. Russian Diplomats Expelled. US Embassy Warning"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper 3/28/23
"Russian 'Secret Weapon Will Destroy USA'. 
Russian Diplomats Expelled. USEmbassy Warning"
Comments here:
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 7/10/22
"A Chilling Warning From A Wise 
Old Man About What's Coming..."
"J. Skousen predicted the exact year the conflict with Russia would start, now he has an even more dire prediction, watch the whole video if you want to see what the future may have in store for us. We don't agree with all his ideas, but he makes some compelling arguments."
Comments here:
Full screen recommended.
Vera Lynn, "We'll Meet Again"
This is the final scene from the Stanley Kubrick classic 
"Dr. Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The Bomb"

"I Know..."

 

"Stock Up At Meijer! Massive Price Increases Are Coming!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danny 3/28/23
"Stock Up At Meijer!
 Massive Price Increases Are Coming!"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"Stock Market And Banks Get Bailed Out, You Go Broke. Car Lots Flooded With Empty Spaces"

Jeremiah Babe 3/28/23
"Stock Market And Banks Get Bailed Out, You Go Broke. 
Car Lots Flooded With Empty Spaces"
Comments here:

"The Biggest Inflation Wave Ever Is Going To Hit. Global Economic Free-Fall Picks Up Speed"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/28/23
"The Biggest Inflation Wave Ever Is Going To Hit. 
Global Economic Free-Fall Picks Up Speed"
Comments here:

Monday, March 27, 2023

"Deutsche Bank Is On The Brink Of Collapse: Get Prepared For The Next Lehman Brothers Moment"

Full screen recommended.
"Deutsche Bank Is On The Brink Of Collapse: 
Get Prepared For The Next Lehman Brothers Moment"
by Epic Economist

"Hordes of small and mid-size banks are now in trouble, and that is really bad news because those institutions issue most of the mortgages, auto loans and credit cards that our economy runs on. The other day, I asked my viewers to “imagine what our country will look like if the banking system implodes and the economy plunges into a depression”, because if our banks continue to collapse that is precisely where we are headed.

JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts estimate that the “most vulnerable” U.S. banks are likely to have lost a total of about $1 trillion in deposits since last year, with half of the outflows occurring in March following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

There are more than 4,000 banks in the United States right now, and the vast majority of them are rapidly losing deposits. As a result, U.S. banks are being forced to turn to the Fed for help at a very frightening rate…

"Banks have been flocking to emergency lending facilities set up after the failures of SVB and Signature. Data released Thursday showed that institutions took a daily average of $116.1 billion of loans from the central bank’s discount window, the highest since the financial crisis, and have taken out $53.7 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program."

Meanwhile, the banking crisis in Europe has taken another very alarming turn. Deutsche Bank shares fell on Friday following a spike in credit default swaps Thursday night, as concerns about the stability of European banks persisted. The Frankfurt-listed stock was down 14% at one point during the session but trimmed losses to close 8.6% lower on Friday afternoon. The German lender’s Frankfurt-listed shares retreated for a third consecutive day and have now lost more than a fifth of their value so far this month.

The emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS , in the wake of the collapse of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank, has triggered contagion concern among investors, which was deepened by further monetary policy tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. But what is going to happen to our economy when the flow of mortgages, auto loans and credit cards is greatly restricted?

Our country is already being torn to shreds like a 20 dollar suit, and economic conditions are still relatively stable. So what is going to happen when we do fall into a very deep economic depression? These are such perilous times, and they are only going to get more difficult in the months ahead."
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Musical Interlude: Leonard Cohen, "Anthem"

Full screen recommended.
Leonard Cohen, "Anthem"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Cradled in cosmic dust and glowing hydrogen, stellar nurseries in Orion the Hunter lie at the edge of a giant molecular cloud some 1,500 light-years away. Spanning nearly 25 degrees, this breath-taking vista stretches across the well-known constellation from head to toe (top to bottom). The Great Orion Nebula, the closest large star forming region, is right of center. To its left are the Horsehead Nebula, M78, and Orion's belt stars. Red giant Betelgeuse is at the hunter's shoulder, bright blue Rigel at his foot, and the glowing Lambda Orionis (Meissa) nebula at the far left, near Orion's head. 
Of course, the Orion Nebula and bright stars are easy to see with the unaided eye, but dust clouds and emission from the extensive interstellar gas in this nebula-rich complex, are too faint and much harder to record. In this mosaic of broadband telescopic images, additional image data acquired with a narrow hydrogen alpha filter was used to bring out the pervasive tendrils of energized atomic hydrogen gas and the arc of the giant Barnard's Loop.”

Chet Raymo, “Angling For Happiness”

“Angling For Happiness”
by Chet Raymo

“There is a concept in physics called angle of repose. Set an object, a book say, on a plank. Now slowly tip up one end of the plank until the moment when the book just starts to slide. The angle between the plank and the horizontal is the angle of repose, where the component of the gravitational force down the plank becomes greater than the maximum friction force holding the book at rest. Or, in more evocative terms - as I write I am lying on the couch with the laptop in my lap, in perfect repose. If you started tipping up the couch, at some point I'd go sliding into a heap at the bottom. That's the angle of repose, or perhaps it would be more accurate to call it the angle of the end of repose.

This comes to mind because I just spent fifteen minutes on my knees in the yard watching ants excavate a nest in the ground. One by one they scurry out of the hole carrying a tiny grain of sand, which they dump in a ring around the hole. A circular pile. Now if the ants just dumped their burdens at the mouth of the hole, pretty soon the pile would get so steep that the sand grains would slide back into the hole. Instead, the circular ring gets higher and wider, with a slope that never exceeds the angle at which the grains will slip - the angle of repose. Now here's the thing: the ants almost invariably carry their grain to just beyond the top of the pile. If the grain slips, it will slide away from the hole. These tiny ants, hardly bigger than sand grains themselves, understand a little physics in their mysterious instinctive way.

Wallace Stegner has a novel titled "Angle of Repose." It is indeed an evocative phrase. In a job, in a relationship, in life itself, many of us instinctively seek that maximum degree of individual gratification that will satisfy emotional needs without doing violence to our essential repose, and that of those around us - the art of walking close to the edge, the thrill without the spill. Every day in the news we hear of folks - politicians or celebrities - who tipped the plank too far, whose lives went sliding into self-destruction, who failed to grasp, metaphorically speaking, something that a tiny ant instinctively understands.”

"Joy, Shipmates, Joy...”

“Night and day the river flows. If time is the mind of space, the River is the soul of the desert. Brave boatmen come, they go, they die, the voyage flows on forever. We are all canyoneers. We are all passengers on this little mossy ship, this delicate dory sailing round the sun that humans call the earth. Joy, shipmates, joy.”
- Edward Abbey

The Daily "Near You"

Rocky Mount, Virginia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"NATO Is In Deep SH*T in Ukraine And Putin Knows It"

Full screen recommended,
Redacted, 3/27/23
"NATO Is In Deep SH*T in Ukraine And Putin Knows It"
"NATO has found itself in the worst possible conundrum in Ukraine right at the worst possible moment. President Zelensky just admitted his proxy army is out of bullets and won't do anything until the West bails him out. European leaders are flying to China to talk peace in Ukraine because the U.S. won't do it. Things could not be worse for NATO."
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"Emergency Meeting at UN, Nukes Moved to Belarus, Moscow Attacked, Israel Chaos!"


Full screen recommended.
Canadian Preppier, 3/27/23
"Emergency Meeting at UN, Nukes Moved to Belarus,
 Moscow Attacked, Israel Chaos!"
Comments here:

"They Sense..."

"People cling to their hates so stubbornly because they sense, 
once hate is gone, they will be forced to deal with pain." 
- James Baldwin

"Where Do You Go in a Hurricane?"

"Where Do You Go in a Hurricane?"
by Jeff Thomas

"As a West Indian, I’ve lived through quite a few hurricanes in my time. My level of responsibility in each varied quite a bit. I was eight years old in my first hurricane and I thought it was great fun, as it was so exciting during the hurricane and, afterward, the landscape had changed so much that I had lots of new places to play.

On the other end of the scale, in 2004, my country, the Cayman Islands, experienced a Category 5 hurricane, with winds up to 200 miles per hour that sat on us without moving for 36 hours. I was responsible for ensuring that safety be provided for scores of my employees prior to the hurricane. After the storm, one of my companies took on the complete rebuilding of the country’s wholesale and retail food distribution facilities in order to ensure that the country’s population would have the most essential commodities - food and water. (A big change in level of responsibility over the years.)

In addition to having spent decades planning for hurricane damage, I’ve also spent decades as an economist, planning for major economic storms. In 1999, I determined that the world would experience what Doug Casey has termed a Greater Depression that would be more devastating than any economic event the world had ever seen. I predicted that it would happen in stages and that the final stage would be the most devastating. I would have been quite pleased to have been incorrect, but unfortunately, my predictions have come to pass. I believe we’re now quite close to the final destruction stage, a period that will lead to the collapse of many of the world’s formerly strongest economies, coinciding with a period of devastating warfare. In both the economic and warfare cases, those who are the world’s major players will believe that they’ll be able to control the extent of devastation and even profit from it, but events will go beyond their control and take on a life of their own.

As in the image above, there will not be just one, but multiple epicentres. Europe and North America will be hit the hardest economically. Next in line will be those countries, such as Japan, Australia, etc., that are the most closely linked economically with these centres. The next tier down will be those countries that are dependent on the centres, but more peripherally, such as Panama or Mexico. Finally, there will be those countries that are the least linked to the major centres, such as Uruguay or Thailand.

All countries will be impacted by the coming economic hurricane, but the effects will vary. Those in the US and Europe will experience the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. Those in Australia and Japan will experience a Category 4. Countries in the third tier will experience a Category 3, and those countries that are either distant from or the least economically dependent upon the epicentres will experience Category 2 or even Category 1 damage.

This is not mere speculation. In examining previous depressions and the last two world wars, we can see that those countries that were the least connected to events tended to fare well. This will hold true this time around as well.

When we turn on the television and the weatherman says that a hurricane is approaching, we have to make a decision. Do we trust in the hope that it might not pass directly over us? Do we question the severity of the storm as it’s being described to us? Should we plan to stay at home, as in a Category 1 or Category 2 storm, or should we plan to go to a local shelter as in a Category 3 or Category 4 storm? Or, do we believe we’ll be experiencing the devastation of a Category 5, in which case we’d pack our bags, wave goodbye to our home, and get as far away from the epicentre as possible?

Well, first, we’d better look at the categories, then, based on where we’re located, ask ourselves what we need to do. We’re presently already experiencing Category 1 conditions.

Category 1 Warfare: Minor civil disobedience and/or riots.
Category 1 Economics: Increased mortgage foreclosures, some strip-shop and mall closings, decreased spending overall.

Category 2 Warfare: Major civil disobedience, riots, and/or insurrection.
Category 2 Economics: The above, plus tariff wars, stock and bond market crashes.

Category 3 Warfare: Minor bombing and/or ground invasion.
Category 3 Economics: The above, plus minor inability of governments to pay entitlements, significant inflation, credit collapse.

Category 4 Warfare: Major bombing and/or ground invasion.
Category 4 Economics: The above, plus the end of the dollar as a reserve currency/end of the petrodollar, considerable inflation, short-term bank closures.

Category 5 Warfare: Nuclear destruction.
Category 5 Economics: The above, plus major inability of governments to pay entitlements, permanent closure of the majority of banks, currency collapse, confiscation of deposits, major internal capital controls.

The above descriptions are not by any means comprehensive. They represent basic categories, to which many details can and should be added.

So, what should your personal plan be? Well, if you’re located in one of the epicentres (the EU and US), you might devise a plan to head out to the country, if you have a destination that you either own or rent. Then, depending on the severity of the storm, you may survive the damage. (A rural area is the equivalent of a hurricane shelter.) However, if you’re dependent on your government for income, you may not be able to survive a Category 3 storm. Even if your income is independent of your government, you may not be able to survive a Category 4 or 5 storm, as you’ll still be under the control of a collapsing system.

The closer you are to an epicentre, the worse the damage promises to be to you personally. And the stronger the hurricane, the greater the damage. It’s important to remember that personal preparedness will help, but the worse the state your government, infrastructure, local businesses and neighbors will be in, the more you’ll be impacted by their condition, even if you’re personally prepared.

As an example, those who choose to sit out a Category 5 monetary and/or warfare hurricane in Uruguay would be likely to fare quite well, just as the Europeans who went there during the world wars. (Very few of them returned after the wars, having found a better life abroad.)

In a Category 4 hurricane, life would be likely to remain relatively stable in areas such as the southeastern provinces of Mexico. In a Category 3, New Zealand might just be manageable.

However, in order to assess your personal situation, it would be advisable to have another look at the categories above and decide for yourself what degree of damage is likely in the near future, then make a personal assessment as to whether you’re willing to chance experiencing that level of damage.

We’ve passed the point of whether there’ll be a hurricane; we just can’t be sure how severe it’ll be. The winds are already picking up and those who choose to make a move will need to do so soon."

"How It Really Is

Don't you feel safe, Good Citizen?

"Oh, That Could Never Happen Here!"

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.“
Nassim Taleb

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
- Mark Twain

And of course...
Always fully and truthfully informed by their government 
and mass media, deeply concerned Americans
 react as expected to disastrous economic and social news...

"Code Red for a Black Swan"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 3/27/23
"Code Red for a Black Swan"
"We are seeing several warning signs that the current banking crisis could be the latest black swan event to take down the economy. This will affect everything from Banking to the Stock Market."
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"The Devil Is Knocking At The Door, Prepare For Reality. Food Theft And Shortages Are Rising"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, 3/27/23
"The Devil Is Knocking At The Door, Prepare For Reality. 
Food Theft And Shortages Are Rising"
Comments here:

"Amazon Reports Mass Grocery Store Shutdowns As Business Starts Falling Apart"

Full screen recommended.
"Amazon Reports Mass Grocery Store
 Shutdowns As Business Starts Falling Apart"
by Epic Economist

"Amazon’s grocery business model is falling apart. Despite its global domination of the online shopping space, the largest e-commerce enterprise in the world, with an annual revenue of over $450 billion, is struggling to survive in one of the most prominent retail categories. And now mass store shutdowns and layoffs are being announced proving that the retail apocalypse is victimizing even the biggest companies in the industry. In fact, a new analysis shows that very soon Whole Foods, Amazon Go, and Amazon convenience stores may disappear for good from the U.S. economic landscape. There has never been so much pressure in the sector as retailers are facing right now. And the downfall of these food retail chains should be a wake-up call for everyone.

During the company’s latest earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy admitted that Amazon still hasn’t nailed down a successful model when it comes to the grocery sector. Jassy revealed that many locations are about to be closed and that the retailer is canceling plans to expand its chains until it figures out how to differentiate them from established competitors in the market.

This action came after its growth results showed figures that were significantly below expectations. Its Fresh supermarkets and cashier-less convenience stores saw a sales boom during the pandemic, but since the second half of 2021, foot traffic has sharply declined, and the company’s revenue is steadily shrinking.

In contrast, the online shopping giant is now having to introduce several cost-cutting measures to its brick-and-mortar business. Last week, Amazon revealed that it is postponing the construction of its second headquarters in Northern Virginia, Virginia, outside of Washington, DC. In January it confirmed plans to cut 18,000 jobs from its global workforce. And on Monday, Andy Jassy said in a memo to staff that the retailer is going to eliminate an additional 9,000 jobs in the next few weeks. The job cuts would mark the second largest round of layoffs in the company's history, bringing the 2023 total to 27,000. However, Jassy noted that Amazon is not done making final decisions on which roles will be eliminated, and in the next couple of months, more roles could be on the chopping block.

At the moment, the retailer is closing one-third of its Amazon Go stores. Meanwhile, Whole Foods Market, its natural and organic foods chain, announced that it is shuttering dozens of supermarkets in four states. The decision was made public right after Amazon reported that Whole Foods Markets faced the highest quarterly loss in seven years. Many industry analysts questioned the viability of the grocery chain.

In fact, according to analysts at Retail Wire, Amazon’s grocery business may not survive another 5 years, especially considering the threat of a severe economic downturn "There's no unique differentiation towards what they're selling, so it's a very middle-of-the-road concept," noted Rupesh Parikh, senior equity research analyst for Oppenheimer & Co. If they can’t figure out that model and how to do this business on thin margins, in 5 years, all of the stores could be gone,” the analysts forecasted.

When even such a massive and resource-rich company fails to adapt to the unforgiving brick-and-mortar retail sector, that begs the question of how smaller brands are really doing in such a troubled environment at this moment. Conditions for businesses are getting significantly worse and the pressure to keep up and stay afloat has never been so intense. But the red flags are starting to emerge everywhere, and unless Amazon reformulates its entire business model, its grocery store chains will continue stuck in a permanent limbo."
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"Visiting Walmart Garden Center! Checking Price Increases And Shortages!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danny, 3/27/23
"Visiting Walmart Garden Center! 
Checking Price Increases And Shortages!"
"In today's vlog we are at Walmart, and are noticing some price increases. We also notice some shortages in their lawn and garden department. It's getting rough out here as stores continue to struggle getting in products. Inflation is also a factor as we are seeing prices skyrocket!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "The Con-job Continues: New 'Emergency' Funding Program For Failing Banks"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/27/23
"The Con-job Continues: New 'Emergency' 
Funding Program For Failing Banks"
Comments here:
And how's that Emergency Funding working for YOU, Good Citizen?
Oh, right, they have something else for you...