Thursday, October 6, 2022

"A Tiger By The Tail"

"If he hollers, let ‘em go."
"A Tiger By The Tail"
by Addison Wiggin

“Eeny, meeny, miny, moe.”
- Children’s rhyme

“If the current level of output and employment is made to depend on inflation,” wrote the economist Friederick von Hayek, “a slowing-down in the pace of inflation will produce recessionary symptoms.” “Moreover,” Hayek continues, “As the economy becomes adjusted to a particular rate of inflation, the rate must itself be continuously increased if symptoms of a depression are to be avoided: to inflate is to have ‘a tiger by the tail’.”

Hayek was writing in the 1930s while the world faced a Great Depression, widespread deflation of asset prices. For years following the Panic of 2008, the Fed under the spell of chairpersons Bernanke and Yellen vowed not to allow a Great Depression redux. Low to negative rates were perceived to be, and accepted as, necessary to keep the economy from falling into an extended period of low growth and declining prices for goods and services.

Each of the Fed’s governors in their own way favored the beast they knew – inflation – over the beast they didn’t. We remember writing during Bernanke’s sentence as Fed chair that no one alive had faced a deflation of the magnitude last seen some 80 years before. Bernanke himself had only written a thesis on what mistakes the Fed made following the stock market bust in 1929.

Eeny meeny miny moe! “Inflation it will be!” the Fed sang in unison during the Panic of 2008. And carried that tune for a decade. Then, President Trump asked Jay Powell to become Fed chair. When he accepted he could not have known he was grabbing the tiger’s tail with both fists. What a cat it has turned out to be. Since the government lockdowns of the economy, the treasury and Fed have combined to dump over $11 trillion of dollars into the economy.

Powell’s recent comments suggest the Fed will not back down from their commitment to continue raising rates to tame the beast. What’s concerning us is the absolute disconnect between Fed policy, the markets and what Nomi Prins refers to as the “real economy”. (You can watch the full Session with Nomi by clicking here.) Hayek made the same observation some 90 years ago:

We are doing nothing less than this if we try to establish direct causal connections between the total quantity of money, the general level of all prices and, perhaps, also the total amount of production. For none of these magnitudes as such ever exerts an influence on the decisions of individuals; yet it is on the assumption of a knowledge of the decisions of individuals that the main propositions of non-monetary economic theory are based.

That’s a wonky way of saying, “for all the statements the Fed and Treasury make, there’s a giant disconnect between theory and the prices people pay for food and energy.” It’s also a way of saying when you have to make a choice between food and heat, you don’t give a rat’s patooty about the models economists-in-residence are following. The disconnect is created mainly by a fundamental misunderstanding in the way we actually track what happens in the economy.

When Powell raises rates in hopes of squashing consumer demand to attack the “general level of all prices,” the effect is what Christopher Leonard would call a “nuking of the economy.” If Powell styles himself a born-again Volcker, he who last had his grips on the tiger’s tail, “growth recession” and stagflation are still part of the plan. Even the “buy-the-dip” crowd are steering clear of this mess.

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. If we spoke Austrian, we’d probably hear those words from Hayek’s mouth, too, albeit more guttural.

So it goes,"

P.S. The price of gas is one major data point facing consumers in the “Real Economy.” Recently, they’ve backed off enough where we’ve even said to ourselves; “Oh look, gas is only $3.78 a gallon. Yes!”

Jim Rickards offers an explanation for the recent drop: "Joe Biden is draining the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep prices down ahead of the midterm elections. But the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was never intended to be a price control mechanism. It was intended as a reserve for Americans in the face of a true national emergency such as war, natural disaster or infrastructure collapse.

The last release of reserves is scheduled for late October, which, incidentally, is just before the November 8 elections. What’s worse is that the reserve will have to be refilled at much higher prices. A lot of the oil in the reserve was purchased when oil was about $40. Today, oil is $85 and may be over $100 when Biden starts replenishing the reserve. Unfortunately, we’re witnessing a political scam and a threat to national security. But it’s all about the midterms.”

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Must View! "Nuclear Winter Nightmare; Doomsday"

Full screen recommended.
"Nuclear Winter Nightmare; Doomsday"
by History
"World War 3 breaks out and a nuclear nightmare becomes reality as thousands of hydrogen bombs destroy the world's greatest cities. A deadly fallout of ash and debris creates a Nuclear Winter."
Comments here:
Related:
Even we as a species couldn't be that stupid, could we? Really?
What do you think?

Must View! Canadian Prepper, "'Putin Retreats to Bunker'; Nuclear Events and Collapse Imminent?"

Canadian Prepper, 10/5/22:
"'Putin Retreats to Bunker'; 
Nuclear Events and Collapse Imminent?"
"I'm selling everything. It's about to hit the fan."
Comments here:

"15 Retailers That Face Bankruptcy As Deep Dark Winter Ahead"

Full screen recommended.
"15 Retailers That Face Bankruptcy 
As Deep Dark Winter Ahead"
by Epic Economist

"Things just seem to keep getting worse for America's troubled retailers. One in ten retail companies is at risk of closure this winter as we enter another economic downturn and consumers roll back their spending on non-essential goods. New data shows that the number of businesses at potential risk of defaulting their debts, going bankrupt, or closing shop for good continues to grow. In fact, earlier this year, Toys 'R' Us CEO warned that a flood of bankruptcies would hit the retail sector during 2022's final quarter as the compounding effects of inflation, supply chain shortages, transportation disruptions, and tighter credit conditions kept on weighing on the balance sheets of distressed companies. “We are in the worst supply chain crisis that any of us can remember and there is no sign of the problems easing before the end of the year. For retailers, the problems could be particularly severe as they prepare for autumn and peak trading in the months building up to the holiday season,” added Brightpearl CEO Derek O’Carroll. “We are still in the relatively early stages of this crisis with the impact of global events just starting to really hit home.”

For example, Tuesday Morning is amongst the long list of retailers that already filed for bankruptcy and are now at risk of going entirely out of business. A dramatic revenue decline in 2020, led the retailer to run out of cash and seek protection as its debt burden increased by $10 million. In the company’s most recent period, it reported a 7% drop in sales, and it projected an adjusted loss of up to $29 million for its current fiscal year. S&P Global Market Intelligence has listed Tuesday Morning as one of the most vulnerable retail companies right now. This holiday season is going to be a make-or-break moment for the already bankrupt retailer that closed 200 stores since January 2021. But if projections turn out to be right, this means the near-term future of the company is going to be extremely gloomy.

Similarly, the Digital Brands Group is warning that it could go bankrupt by year’s end due to a shortage of liquidity. 2022 was a year of extensive losses for the developer. In February, it was sued by creditors over late payments. One of them demanded the retailer put its expansion plans on hold until it was paid for goods shipped years ago, in 2019 and 2020. In the second quarter, the company’s operating loss was at $10.7 million. It also owes $6 million to a secured lender, which matures in December, and creditors are on the edge of their seats right now due to the high risk of default. Spending in the luxury sector has been on a steady decline, and with inflation still biting, the landscape doesn’t look good for the group.

In a new report on vulnerable retailers, Creditntell cited “bloated” inventory levels as a major pressure on margins and profits. The imbalance led major companies, including Walmart and Target, to cancel billions in orders recently. “Potentially the biggest stumbling block will be the consumer,” Albert Furst, chief operating officer of Creditntell, highlighted in a recent interview. With store closures still mounting while foot traffic declines, a financial disaster is looming for U.S. retailers in the near term. And in today's video, we listed some of America's most iconic brands that are in danger during the make-or-break holiday season. If you're a loyal customer of one of these brands, maybe you should visit their stores while you still can, because soon, they may disappear forever."
Comments here:

"Extreme Economic Pain Is Coming; Sell Your House Now And Get Out; A Flat Tire Away From Big Trouble"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/5/22:
"Extreme Economic Pain Is Coming; Sell Your House 
Now And Get Out; A Flat Tire Away From Big Trouble"
Comments here:
Related:

Gregory Mannarino, "Mummies And Ghouls! This Really Is A Freak Show"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/5/22:
"Mummies And Ghouls! This Really Is A Freak Show;
 Economy Continues To Crater"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Juzzie Smith, "Bluesberry Jam"

Juzzie Smith, "Bluesberry Jam"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“The constellation of Orion holds much more than three stars in a row. A deep exposure shows everything from dark nebula to star clusters, all embedded in an extended patch of gaseous wisps in the greater Orion Molecular Cloud Complex. The brightest three stars on the far left are indeed the famous three stars that make up the belt of Orion. Just below Alnitak, the lowest of the three belt stars, is the Flame Nebula, glowing with excited hydrogen gas and immersed in filaments of dark brown dust.
Below the frame center and just to the right of Alnitak lies the Horsehead Nebula, a dark indentation of dense dust that has perhaps the most recognized nebular shapes on the sky. On the upper right lies M42, the Orion Nebula, an energetic caldron of tumultuous gas, visible to the unaided eye, that is giving birth to a new open cluster of stars. Immediately to the left of M42 is a prominent bluish reflection nebula sometimes called the Running Man that houses many bright blue stars. The above image, a digitally stitched composite taken over several nights, covers an area with objects that are roughly 1,500 light years away and spans about 75 light years.”

"A Great Kindness..."

“So don’t ask yourself what people want. Ask instead, What is true? What really inspires me, excites me? What will really help people and take away their confusion and suffering? It’s sort of a funny, crazy way to go, but I think it’s the only way to bring water to the wasteland Joseph Campbell described. When I read something truthful, something real, I breathe a deep sigh and say, “Fantastic – I wasn’t mad or alone in thinking that, after all!” So often we are left to our own devices, struggling in the dark with this external and internal propaganda system. At that point, for someone to tell us the truth is a gift. In a world where people all around us are lying and confusing us, to be honest is a great kindness.”
- David Edwards

Chet Raymo, “Half Sick Of Shadows”

“Half Sick Of Shadows”
by Chet Raymo

“Who is this woman? Her name is on the prow of her boat: The Lady of Shalott.  Yes, it’s Tennyson’s “Lady of Shalott,” from the poem of 1842, here illustrated by John William Waterhouse in 1888. By some unspecified curse this lovely maiden was confined to a tower…
“Willows whiten, aspens quiver,
Little breezes dusk and shiver
Through the wave that runs for ever
By the island in the river”

near Camelot, where, forbidden to look out the window, she observed the world in a mirror and wove what she saw into a tapestry. So what is she doing in the boat, with her hand-stitched creation? One day, Sir Lancelot rode by her tower alone. She saw him in the mirror and – “half sick of shadows” – couldn’t resist turning to see him unreflected.
“His broad clear brow in sunlight glow’d;
On burnish’d hooves his war-horse trode;
From underneath his helmet flow’d
His coal-black curls as on he rode…”

The mirror cracked. She left her loom, descended from the tower, found a boat, inscribed her name on the prow, and…
“Lying, robed in snowy white
That loosely flew to left and right -
The leaves upon her falling light -
Thro’ the noises of the night”

cast off to drift downstream to Camelot – and to Lancelot. But curses are not to be foiled.

“For ere she reach’d upon the tide
The first house by the water-side,
Singing in her song she died,
The Lady of Shalott.”

We are all of us in a way the Lady of Shalott, all of us who seek to create an image of the world, artists, poets, scientists. We perceive the world through the filter of our limited senses, our biologically evolved brains, our nurtured preconceptions. We weave our tapestries, knowing that our creations are a reflection removed from reality. Our “curse” is to be in love with the real, yet never able to embrace it except in the cold glass of conceptualization. Our legacy? To be found in a boat lodged among the reeds, our tapestry draped across the thwart, with Camelot yet somewhere further down the stream, glistening, beckoning, inescapably out of reach. But, ah, there’s that gorgeous tapestry.

There is another curse, self made, and that is to mistake the mirrorworld for the world outside the window, to fail to recognize the contingency of our conceptualizations, to forego an honest seeking for the falsely found, and – most ominously – to want to impose our own mirrorworld on others.”

"If We Have No Idea..."

“If we have no idea what we believe in, we’ll go along with anything. Truth takes courage. Courage to stand up for what we believe in. Not necessarily in a confrontational way, but in a gentle yet firm way. Like an oak tree, able to sway gently in the wind, but strongly rooted to the ground.”
- A.C. Ping

"Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”

“Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song
Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”
By Melanie Curtin

“Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here’s a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one’s health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.

Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.

According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- “Weightless”- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants’ overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.

Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created “Weightless”, Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener’s heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.

When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer’s, or influenza.

In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you’ve got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.
Full screen highly recommended.
Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, “‘Weightless’ (above) was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous.” So don’t drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:

10. “We Can Fly” by Rue du Soleil (Café Del Mar)
7. “Pure Shores by All Saints
6. “Please Don’t Go by Barcelona
4. “Watermark” by Enya
2. “Electra” by Airstream
1. “Weightless by Marconi Union

I made a public playlist of all of them on Spotify that runs about 50 minutes (it’s also downloadable).”

"Peak Focus Soft House Study Music with Beta Isochronic Tones"

Full screen recommended
"Peak Focus Soft House Study Music 
with Beta Isochronic Tones"
by Jason Lewis

Headphones Are Not Required
What does this track do? A soft house upbeat study music mix with beta wave isochronic tones. Part of my peak focus for complex tasks series.Designed to produce a deep focus mental state while studying or working. This session stimulates Beta, SMR and Alpha, alternating in 2 minute increments to help keep the user relaxed and engaged. Note: SMR (sensorimotor rhythm) relates to the frequency range between 12 – 15Hz. It’s associated with sensory processing and motor control. Stimulating this can result in relaxed focus and improved attention. This session is meant to speed up the brain while keeping the left hemisphere dominant (good for attention, concentration and reducing emotional response and hyperactivity). ADD and similar disorders are often characterized by “slow-wave” EEG patterns, particularly in the left frontal region. As such, this session stimulates the left brain hemisphere with Beta frequencies and the right with SMR.

Can it be used to help with studying and if so, when should you listen to it? Yes, it can be helpful to use while studying, and if you read through the many comments about this track, you’ll see that many people have successfully used it for studying. You can either listen to it while you are studying, to get your brain into a good mental state when you need it. Or if you are someone that gets a bit distracted by music while studying, listen to it just before you begin.

How Loud Should The Volume Be? There is varying advice and opinions on the impact of volume with brainwave entrainment, with some saying the louder it is the more impact it has. From my own experience, my advice is to play it at a volume level you feel comfortable with. The main thing to consider is that it should be loud enough to hear the repetitive isochronic tones, so you don’t want it so quiet you can hardly hear them. But you also don’t want it so loud that its uncomfortable for you. Somewhere in the middle is my recommendation.

Use this session in the morning or afternoon, to train your brain for better cognition, such as clearer and faster thinking. You can either sit somewhere quiet and comfortable with your eyes closed and give your brain a nice workout, or you can also listen to this while doing an activity that requires a boost in concentration, like studying.

How long should you listen for to get a good effect? It takes around 6 minutes for your brainwaves to fall in step with the tones and become entrained. It then takes time to be guided along the frequency range used in the track. Listening to about half way through is the minimum in my opinion, but 30 minutes is the optimum and preferred length to listen for.

IMPORTANT RECOMMENDATIONS:
• Drink some water – Make sure you are well hydrated before listening to brainwave entrainment.
WHY? Your brain is made up of around 75% water, so it needs plenty of water to function well. When you stimulate your brain in this way, you’re increasing electrical activity and blood flow in the brain and giving your brain a good workout, so it can be a good idea to drink before listening, so that your brain can fire on all cylinders.

• It is not recommended to listen to this while driving or operating machinery.
WHY? Brainwave entrainment involves a process of stimulating your brainwaves and changing your mental state. While this is safe to do and use in normal situations, it can sometimes zone you out during the track, as you focus in on the sound of the tones. This could result in you being distracted temporarily, which is not a good thing while you’re driving or operating machinery. Some people also experience tingling and other sensations from the stimulation. While that might feel quite nice sitting in a comfortable chair at home, it could cause you to be distracted while driving and result in an accident.

• It is not recommended to listen to this while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or any mind altering substance.
WHY? When your brain is under the influence of drugs or alcohol it’s not operating to it’s full capacity, and you react differently to stimulation and situations, compared to when you are sober. So as a precaution and because I don’t know how you will react in that situation, I recommend you do not use it in that situation.

• Who should NOT listen to this audio? Those who should not listen to this video/audio include: Those who are prone to or have had seizures, epilepsy, pregnant or wear a pacemaker should NOT listen to this video/audio.
WHY? There is insufficient research data in this area, so as a precaution, if you are among the categories listed above, I would recommend you consult a doctor or medical professional before listening to this video/audio.”
Comments here:
Whether you want to know it or not we're all in the fight of our lives, for our lives. Some of you reading this will not survive, and I may not either, so I for one will take any edge I can get, and so should you. This works, I suggest you use it.
- CP

The Daily "Near You?"

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"Some Oddities..."

¨"There are some oddities in the perspective with which we see the world. The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be."
- Douglas Adams

"Risk of a Crash is Rising"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/5/22:
"Risk of a Crash is Rising"
"It makes no difference where you live. 
The economy is getting more precarious."
Comments here:

"Just Look At Us..."

"Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality"
- Michael Ellner

"As Robert Oppenheimer said a short while before he died, 'It is perfectly obvious that the whole world is going to hell. The only possible chance that it might not is that we do not attempt to prevent it from doing so.' You see, many of the troubles going on in the world right now are being supervised by people with very good intentions whose attempts are to keep things in order, to clean things up, to forbid this, and to prevent that. The more we try to put everything to rights, the more we make fantastic messes. Maybe that is the way it has got to be. Maybe I should not say anything at all about the folly of trying to put things to right but simply, on the principle of Blake, let the fool persist in his folly so that he will become wise."
- Alan Watts

"A Diagnostic Letter To Our Euro-Peon Vassals, Who Are Dumber Than The Better Class Of Nematode"

"A Diagnostic Letter To Our Euro-Peon Vassals, 
Who Are Dumber Than The Better Class Of Nematode"
by Fred Reed

"Well, I declare. I hear you Europeans bleating and hollering about how unfair life is and you don’t have gas to keep warm if it gets cold in winter, which generally it does, and everything costs too much. Fact is, you deserve it. To be honest, which we journalists sometimes do, I think it’s amusing. It’s like watching a man beating his thumb with a hammer and saying, oh ouch, oh ouch, it hurts, oh ouch, it hurts and can’t figure out why. It’s because Europeans are so easily led, managed, dominated by the fetid Yankee Rome in Washington, which regards you as trained seals. I’ve known fire plugs, even toaster ovens, more intelligent than you are.

You poor widdle fings! You aren’t even real countries. You can’t be a real country when you have American occupation troops and military bases everywhere and uncouth foreign soldiers drinking your beer and diddling your daughters. GIs tell me the Italian ones are best, with English girls often being mistaken for dead. I couldn’t stand the humiliation, but Europeans are a resilient people.

Really, it’s a cackle. Mornings, I fire up the computer to see what you squirming servile dwarves have done now. You are better than Monty Python. Think. Ten years ago you were all peaceful and had plenty of cheap Russian gas and your factories were humming like contented cats and you were buying stuff from Russia and selling it I don’t know what all. Then Master Washington says you have to push the Ukraine toward NATO. You dim twits need Ukraine in NATO like you need a corn cob where the sun don’t shine but Europe is servile by nature, so you say, “Yass, Bwana! What you say, Boss! Which boot we lick first, Massuh?” I see a bull market for flavored boot polish. Brussels would buy trainloads.

Anyway, Russia says over and over and over, If Washington tries to put NATO in Ukraine, dey gonna be wah. Even a European, or some anyway, could understand this. Or maybe, with help from a caring adult. But Massuh Washington wanted wah, and told you to keep pushing, “Yass, Bwana,” and you didn’t listen to Putin, because you are dumber than retarded possums and belong in diapers. What children you are. Nanny nanny booboo.

This is wonderfully funny, and I am enjoying it outrageously. You are going to freeze. Good. It’s a hoot but it’s a Darwin thing too. It’s good for the world when a region with the aggregate IQ of inbred bacteria eliminates itself. Well, except for the Italian girls for the GIs. We’ll keep those. You are going to freeze solid like terra cotta soldiers or burn your houses to keep warm and your farmers will grow scrawny underweight plants because you cut off fertilizer and gas from Russia to show your devotion to your stern Potomac Father. It’s comic. You are so stoopid! When American proconsuls go to Brussels your anointed European butt-sniffers rush out to be patted on the head and, or so I hear, receive suitcases of money. How dignified.

But the funniest part was blowing up the pipelines. Yes. See, Washington couldn’t let Germany, the only potentially serious country in Europe, except it really isn’t one, trade with Russia and China. So it gets the war going in Ukraine, easy with malleable European dimwits, and then…blows up the pipelines! Simple, direct, and effective. The amusing thing is that everyone in Brussels knows perfectly well that America did it, as must every European with the IQ of a doorknob, but none of you weak sisters has the dangling ellipsoidals to say so, because then you would have to do something about it, and you are scared unto death of the United States. Of which the United States is well aware and so, reasonably, holds you in contempt. I do too. I mean doesn’t everybody?

So some silly woman in Belgium - Ursula Borderline or something, anyway a scrawny blonde who looks like she really needs a sandwich - yaps from under the sofa that doing bad things to Europe’s energy infrastructure is “unacceptable,” Grr, bowwow, woof. But sweetheart, you poor, dumb monument to pusillanimous inadequacy, of course it is acceptable. You are accepting it, aren’t you? You know who did it, Washington knows you know, but you will look studiedly puzzled while Washington chuckles inwardly. Europeans are so gelatinous, so weak, so negligible.

I mean, seriously. Suppose you admitted that America did it. What could you poor dears do about it? Nothing. NATO controls Europe. What do you think those bases are for? And Washington is NATO. You wouldn´t dare close even the smallest US base, or even a closet door in one. Haha! Freeze, baby, freeze.

So, suckers, you’ve been taken for a ride by experts. And America makes out like a bandit. Washington tells you who you can trade with, and you obey, yass, Bwana, what you say. America gets to sell you overpriced LNG (liquefied natural gas). You will meekly buy uberbillions of costume-jewelry weapons from America. Your dependence on the US approaches outright ownership. Without cheap Russian gas, electricity will be really pricey and your factories will close or maybe go offshore to America and Europe will get in touch with its inner backwater. Hey, it’s a giggle.

England is America’s most devoted camp follower, a political barnacle firm glued to the ship of the Yankee state, making international noises in an effort to pretend it is more than an American poodle. (You may be wondering how it is possible to be a poodle and a barnacle at the same time. Multiple personality disorder, maybe.) From Brexit we went to endless Truss ads. Now we are back to the standby, hissing at Russia. Yass, Massuh.

You think you are defending democracy, doing something about human rights and, you know, having values or something. No, halfwits, you are helping Washington cut you off from the world’s largest markets. Yes, children. As the rest of Eurasia grows like Topsy, as the center of gravity of technology and economy moves eastward, America will pillage you as you pillaged most of the world and turn you into a peninsular homeless shelter. You will be all grateful to Massuh Washington for saving you from the evil Putin monster who was about to conquer all of Europe and turn you into slaves or robots or something else bad. You will buy lots of dysfunctional fighter planes.

And you will crawl. It is your way."
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.

"How It Really Is"

Yeah...
Any questions?

"Popular Mechanics"

"Popular Mechanics"
by Addison Wiggin

“And if the world went to hell in a handbasket – as it seemed to be doing – you could say good-bye to everyone and retreat to your land, hunkering down and living off it.”
- Jeannette Walls, "Half Broken Horses"

"Yesterday, we got a glimpse of what trader’s call “the dead cat bouncing.” The Dow ended up 2.6%... S&P up 2.5%... even the tech heavy Nasdaq saw gains of 2.2%. Trader’s use the very technical term “dead cat bounce” when the market rallies despite languid fundamentals. Today, the Dow continues to rise. As of this writing it’s up another 2.5%, recresting 30,000 once again.

But that’s the thing about a bouncing cat, what goes up… must come down. The impending energy crisis in Europe and the ongoing saga of the Nordstream pipelines, which we discussed in this week’s Session, will likely weigh heavy on the markets up to and past the mid-term elections in early November.

“You offered your ‘three cents’ on the Nord Stream mystery,” Carl N. writes. “I guess even the usual and historic cost of our thoughts, two cents, is experiencing 50% inflation.” Reader mail of late has made me think back to an experiment my parents tried when I was a kid. They wanted to live off the land. Yes, it was the 70s, but they weren’t hippies, per se. More like old school Yankees. Pragmatic.

They bought and sold old colonial houses in New Hampshire. When I was five, we moved into a house that was built in 1750… in the middle of February. No one had thought to install indoor plumbing, yet. The outhouse was, um, a little icy.

The old house was sitting on 22 acres of land off Emery Road. Plenty enough for a garden to feed a family of four. We grew tomatoes, green beans and peppers, squash and pumpkins. There were chickens. And a dog who birthed puppies we could sell. There was a big forest that extended down to the Lamprey River offering plenty of firewood.
Lamprey River, near Stratham NH, 
where the Emery Road house is located. 

Starting with one pickup truck, my father delivered building supplies to his friends who were working as contractors building new houses, barns and doing odd job repairs. My mother sold flower arrangements on the roadside to pay for our school. I’m relaying this story to point out I was just a kid when the historic 40-year inflation we’ve been writing about today shut down my dad’s business.

The cost of lumber, asphalt shingles and nails was increasing at an unpredictable rate. The oil embargo of ‘73 sent gas up nearly 50% to unheard of $.59 a gallon– that’s if the gas station even had any supply. People stopped driving, building houses or even conceiving of odd jobs. Without much income, my parents sold the farm, took the capital gains and moved us into a more modest home. The next one was newer, maybe 1930s construction, and came equipped with plumbing and heat. In total we lived in nine different houses in Stratham before I left home at 17.

I remember my father used to lie awake on Sunday mornings planning his next project. It was just his thing. One idea led to a solar house he built into a hill with a greenhouse that generated heat. A convection system drew heat from the greenhouse. The air whooshed to the top of the rafters on the third floor… whipped across the highest level… then cooled against a thirty foot concrete retaining wall… dropping under the basement floor boards and returned to the greenhouse. The entire house could be heated in the winter or cooled in the summer using this flow of air. It was amazing to me. Apparently, my dad got the idea from reading an editorial in Popular Mechanics magazine.
An old copy of Popular Mechanics.

“We are eating out and going out less,” writes Juan U. in response to our question from last week: “With inflation on the horizon, how are you cutting back?” The idea was to get a bead on how much inflation and recession fears are changing your personal consumption plans. We want to get a real-world look at a recession. “We stopped discretionary spending,” Juan concludes, “and are now focused on our savings and investing.”

“We’re switching to store brands and foregoing the major labels when shopping,” writes Carl M. “dropping any streaming service that is of little use to us and thinking of dropping cable for internet only. We're eating out less and cooking more at home. Also, no more impulse purchases on Amazon!”

“Absolutely have cut back on spending,” another Carl writes, “Saving all I can to have a reserve to deploy when I think the bottom is close. I also believe every $1 I don’t spend is $5 or $10 I don’t have to earn. And based on your advice living remotely and self-sufficiently.”

“You asked if anyone was cutting cost on food or beverages to write in and let you know,” writes Gary K. “Well we aren't really cutting costs but my wife opened her coffee business in 2004 and started selling a fresh roasted (we roast on site), fresh brewed cup of coffee for $1, and to this day September 29th 2022 she still has a fresh roasted, fresh brewed cup of coffee for $1. This is her way of helping out where she can knowing that everything else is so expensive.”

"The Collapse Of Rome 2.0 Incoming"

"The Collapse Of Rome 2.0 Incoming"
National Debt Surpasses $31 Trillion
by BoatSurfer600

"Zimbabwe R Us. The government has no intention of ever repaying this debt – instead, the Fed will inflate it away, completing its extinction of the American middle class in the process. Got silver? www.foxnews.com/us/national-debt-surpasses-31-trillion

Debt continues to climb even after massive levels of spending during COVID pandemic have waned. It is not only the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle in 40 years. The current U.S. debt to gdp is also more than double the one from 1994 and even more than 3x the one from 1983. How far can they go from here?"

"Everybody Is A Genius..."

Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "It's YODO Time!"

"It's YODO Time!"
Forget HODL, TINA and YOLO...
 here's an acronym for our age...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Baltimore, Maryland - "In the fever and fury of the Great Bubble Epoch a number of short-hand messages were developed.

YOLO – you only live once, was enough to convince risk takers to make their move.
TINA – there is no alternative, described the lack of yield from ‘safe’ treasury bonds, leaving investors with no other choice but to buy stocks.
HODL – ‘hold on for dear life’ was what believers in crypto coins were supposed to do, ignoring the ups and downs of prices.

But now, it’s a new market. You still only live once, but now there’s no guarantee that stocks will go up. As for TINA, now there is an alternative. The 10-year Treasury is paying 3.6%. Not much. But better than losing 10%- 20% more the next drawdown. And HODL if you want… but there are some things you can HODL forever… and they’ll still be worthless.

The world is still the same… humans haven’t changed; we are as dumb and as credulous as ever. But new market conditions require a new anthem. So, we introduce:

YODO – you only die once. Today, we explain why this is a YODO market, not a YOLO market.

The Big Pivot: Yesterday, the dead cat bounced again. Market Watch: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 900 points at its session high and remained on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since June 2020 as equities kicked off the new month and quarter with a sharp bounce. The Dow remained up 890 points, or 3.1%, which would be its largest percentage rise since June 5, 2020."

What’s behind it? Investors saw the Bank of England ‘pivot.’ They saw the Reserve Bank of Australia almost pivot. They saw the government of the UK pivot. Perhaps a bit dizzy, they believe the Fed will soon pivot too. Markets Insider: "The Fed will hike rates once more in November and then stop because the soaring dollar risks breaking markets, market veteran Ed Yardeni says."

That point of view runs counter to market consensus, which currently expects a 75 basis point rate hike in November, followed by a 50 basis point rate hike in December. Some even expect the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in early 2023 before it ultimately pauses, with the Fed fund rate sitting around 4.50%. Apparently, everybody thinks the Fed will pivot – including us. But we do not see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Instead, it’s merely a way to lose more money.

In this opinion, we are joined by Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson. Markets Insider again: "It appears increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will pivot away from its currently hawkish monetary policy as global US dollar liquidity is now in the "danger zone where bad stuff happens," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said in a Monday note. But investors shouldn't put too much stock into a potential pivot by the Fed, he added. That's because an earnings recession is imminent, and potential stock market downside from a sizable earnings decline would likely outweigh the potential upside from a Fed pivot."

The Cat is Dead: The pivot is just part of the trap. If the Fed stops inflating, the bubble economy dies – and stocks along with it. But if it continues to inflate, consumer prices go up… the damage is delayed… though more widespread and unpredictable. Once on the loose, inflation is a hard thing to get back in the barn. People need more and more money just to stay in the same place. Then, it’s almost impossible to tighten the money supply without setting off a depression, probably accompanied by riots and a revolution.

Pivoting will signal to novice investors that the Fed is going to let the good times roll again. But the problem is this: the bons temps are over. The cat is dead. Sales and profits are falling. Stock values will go down. Lowering the Fed Funds rate (still not even half the rate of consumer price increases) will make little difference. Yes, Wall Street may rally for a while. But then, the reality of a recession…or stagflation… is likely to nest in investors’ minds. Nominal prices may go up, but real prices – reduced by inflation – will probably fall.

And it’s not as if investment markets operate in a germ-free laboratory. Not at all. Inflation, recession, war… productivity in reverse, real wages falling, house prices declining… the US empire rolling over… climate alarmists threatening to cut off fuel… warmongers threatening to start WWIII… the most blockheaded Washington in memory… $31 trillion in US federal debt… and $300 trillion in worldwide debt –yes, it’s YODO time now.

As the old timers put it: “your first loss is your best loss.” Because, when your money dies, it is dead forever. It won’t be resurrected. And a U-turn by the Fed won’t take you back where you started. It’s just a different route to Hell."
Joel’s Note: It is not given to man to know his future, much less the next quarter’s performance of his stock market. But history can provide a little guidance. As noted in this space over the weekend, the S&P 500 closed out its worst September in two decades. Before the dead cat bounced this week, it was down ~25% year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq were left similarly sore, off ~21% and ~32%, respectively, for 2022.

Bottom line, as Dan Denning reminded Bonner Private Research members in his Friday note, it was the fourth worst ‘start’ to the year since, well… ever. Here’s Dan, with some history…"The index was down 31.9% through September in 1974 but rallied to finish down ‘just’ 29.6% for the year. In 1931, it was down 28.8% but finished down, gulp, 47.1% for the year. In 2002, it was down 27.2% at the end of September but rallied in the fourth quarter to finish down 23.4%."

Historically, bear market losses have depended on – among other factors – whether the economy fell into an accompanying recession. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed last Thursday what every non-economist in the country already knew: that the US has been in recession for most of this year. Here’s Dan, again, putting some numbers on the table…"Since 1929, the average bear market lasts fourteen months and has a peak-to-trough drawdown of 36%. If there’s no recession, the average bear market lasts twelve months and the average drawdown is 29%."

If you take your bear markets with a side of recession, then the bear market lasts sixteen months and with a 42% drawdown. All these statistics are courtesy of Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors (a must follow on Twitter). Since we’re in a recession (or since we had one in the first eight months of this year with two consecutive quarters of declining GDP), that means we could be looking at a sixteen month bear market with a fall to around 2,782 on the S&P 500 (a 42% decline from the January closing high at 4,796). That’s another 22% below today’s close at 3,585, which by the way breaks the support at 3,600.

As regular readers know, Dan and Tom have advised Maximum Safety Mode throughout this bear market. It’s been the right call so far. But what about the rest of the year? “It’s possible we see a fourth quarter bear market rally,” Dan concluded in Friday’s note, “but if so, we’re staying firmly on the sidelines. The Fed conducted a giant financial experiment by lowering interest rates and keeping them there. An asset price boom ensued. Now comes the bust.”

You know what to do: Engage Maximum Safety, Keep Calm… and Carry On."
Related:

"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This Is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/5/22:
"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This Is Crazy!"
"In today's vlog we are at Sam's Club, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Important Updates"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/5/22:
"Important Updates: 
Stock Market, Debt, Gold, Silver, Crypto, Crude, Dollar, More!"
Comments here:

Tucker Carlson, "The Bobulinski Interview"

Full screen recommended.
Tucker Carlson Tonight, 10/4/22:
"The Bobulinski Interview"
Proof of the Biden crime family's activities.
Comments here:
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
- Taylor Caldwell