Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "It's YODO Time!"

"It's YODO Time!"
Forget HODL, TINA and YOLO...
 here's an acronym for our age...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Baltimore, Maryland - "In the fever and fury of the Great Bubble Epoch a number of short-hand messages were developed.

YOLO – you only live once, was enough to convince risk takers to make their move.
TINA – there is no alternative, described the lack of yield from ‘safe’ treasury bonds, leaving investors with no other choice but to buy stocks.
HODL – ‘hold on for dear life’ was what believers in crypto coins were supposed to do, ignoring the ups and downs of prices.

But now, it’s a new market. You still only live once, but now there’s no guarantee that stocks will go up. As for TINA, now there is an alternative. The 10-year Treasury is paying 3.6%. Not much. But better than losing 10%- 20% more the next drawdown. And HODL if you want… but there are some things you can HODL forever… and they’ll still be worthless.

The world is still the same… humans haven’t changed; we are as dumb and as credulous as ever. But new market conditions require a new anthem. So, we introduce:

YODO – you only die once. Today, we explain why this is a YODO market, not a YOLO market.

The Big Pivot: Yesterday, the dead cat bounced again. Market Watch: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 900 points at its session high and remained on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since June 2020 as equities kicked off the new month and quarter with a sharp bounce. The Dow remained up 890 points, or 3.1%, which would be its largest percentage rise since June 5, 2020."

What’s behind it? Investors saw the Bank of England ‘pivot.’ They saw the Reserve Bank of Australia almost pivot. They saw the government of the UK pivot. Perhaps a bit dizzy, they believe the Fed will soon pivot too. Markets Insider: "The Fed will hike rates once more in November and then stop because the soaring dollar risks breaking markets, market veteran Ed Yardeni says."

That point of view runs counter to market consensus, which currently expects a 75 basis point rate hike in November, followed by a 50 basis point rate hike in December. Some even expect the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in early 2023 before it ultimately pauses, with the Fed fund rate sitting around 4.50%. Apparently, everybody thinks the Fed will pivot – including us. But we do not see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Instead, it’s merely a way to lose more money.

In this opinion, we are joined by Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson. Markets Insider again: "It appears increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will pivot away from its currently hawkish monetary policy as global US dollar liquidity is now in the "danger zone where bad stuff happens," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said in a Monday note. But investors shouldn't put too much stock into a potential pivot by the Fed, he added. That's because an earnings recession is imminent, and potential stock market downside from a sizable earnings decline would likely outweigh the potential upside from a Fed pivot."

The Cat is Dead: The pivot is just part of the trap. If the Fed stops inflating, the bubble economy dies – and stocks along with it. But if it continues to inflate, consumer prices go up… the damage is delayed… though more widespread and unpredictable. Once on the loose, inflation is a hard thing to get back in the barn. People need more and more money just to stay in the same place. Then, it’s almost impossible to tighten the money supply without setting off a depression, probably accompanied by riots and a revolution.

Pivoting will signal to novice investors that the Fed is going to let the good times roll again. But the problem is this: the bons temps are over. The cat is dead. Sales and profits are falling. Stock values will go down. Lowering the Fed Funds rate (still not even half the rate of consumer price increases) will make little difference. Yes, Wall Street may rally for a while. But then, the reality of a recession…or stagflation… is likely to nest in investors’ minds. Nominal prices may go up, but real prices – reduced by inflation – will probably fall.

And it’s not as if investment markets operate in a germ-free laboratory. Not at all. Inflation, recession, war… productivity in reverse, real wages falling, house prices declining… the US empire rolling over… climate alarmists threatening to cut off fuel… warmongers threatening to start WWIII… the most blockheaded Washington in memory… $31 trillion in US federal debt… and $300 trillion in worldwide debt –yes, it’s YODO time now.

As the old timers put it: “your first loss is your best loss.” Because, when your money dies, it is dead forever. It won’t be resurrected. And a U-turn by the Fed won’t take you back where you started. It’s just a different route to Hell."
Joel’s Note: It is not given to man to know his future, much less the next quarter’s performance of his stock market. But history can provide a little guidance. As noted in this space over the weekend, the S&P 500 closed out its worst September in two decades. Before the dead cat bounced this week, it was down ~25% year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq were left similarly sore, off ~21% and ~32%, respectively, for 2022.

Bottom line, as Dan Denning reminded Bonner Private Research members in his Friday note, it was the fourth worst ‘start’ to the year since, well… ever. Here’s Dan, with some history…"The index was down 31.9% through September in 1974 but rallied to finish down ‘just’ 29.6% for the year. In 1931, it was down 28.8% but finished down, gulp, 47.1% for the year. In 2002, it was down 27.2% at the end of September but rallied in the fourth quarter to finish down 23.4%."

Historically, bear market losses have depended on – among other factors – whether the economy fell into an accompanying recession. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed last Thursday what every non-economist in the country already knew: that the US has been in recession for most of this year. Here’s Dan, again, putting some numbers on the table…"Since 1929, the average bear market lasts fourteen months and has a peak-to-trough drawdown of 36%. If there’s no recession, the average bear market lasts twelve months and the average drawdown is 29%."

If you take your bear markets with a side of recession, then the bear market lasts sixteen months and with a 42% drawdown. All these statistics are courtesy of Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors (a must follow on Twitter). Since we’re in a recession (or since we had one in the first eight months of this year with two consecutive quarters of declining GDP), that means we could be looking at a sixteen month bear market with a fall to around 2,782 on the S&P 500 (a 42% decline from the January closing high at 4,796). That’s another 22% below today’s close at 3,585, which by the way breaks the support at 3,600.

As regular readers know, Dan and Tom have advised Maximum Safety Mode throughout this bear market. It’s been the right call so far. But what about the rest of the year? “It’s possible we see a fourth quarter bear market rally,” Dan concluded in Friday’s note, “but if so, we’re staying firmly on the sidelines. The Fed conducted a giant financial experiment by lowering interest rates and keeping them there. An asset price boom ensued. Now comes the bust.”

You know what to do: Engage Maximum Safety, Keep Calm… and Carry On."
Related:

"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This Is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/5/22:
"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This Is Crazy!"
"In today's vlog we are at Sam's Club, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Important Updates"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/5/22:
"Important Updates: 
Stock Market, Debt, Gold, Silver, Crypto, Crude, Dollar, More!"
Comments here:

Tucker Carlson, "The Bobulinski Interview"

Full screen recommended.
Tucker Carlson Tonight, 10/4/22:
"The Bobulinski Interview"
Proof of the Biden crime family's activities.
Comments here:
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
- Taylor Caldwell

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

"A Banking Crisis Looms"

"A Banking Crisis Looms"
by Tuomas Malinen

"My columns have turned rather apocalyptic of late, but for a valid reason. Just this week, we got confirmation that our financial system is, again, on the brink of collapse, when the Bank of England (BOE) was forced to enact, de facto, a bailout of the pension funds of the United Kingdom.

On Sept. 28, around noon, the Bank of England stepped (back) into the gilt markets and started buying government bonds with longer maturities to stop the collapse in their value, which could have caused the financial system to become unhinged. Pension funds were faced with major margin calls, which threatened to cause a rapidly cascading run on their liabilities, as trust in their liquidity and solvency would have become questioned by a widening circle of investors and customers.

Effectively, the BOE stepped in to limit the vicious circle of margin calls faced by pension funds because of the crashing values of the gilts. Without the BOE intervention, mass insolvencies of pension funds, with about $3 trillion worth of assets - and thus most likely other financial institutions - could have commenced on that afternoon. It’s obvious that if one of the major financial hubs of the world, the City of London, would face a financial panic, it would spread to the rest of the world in an instant.

It looks as though the global financial system was pulled from the brink of collapse, once again, by central bankers. However, this was only a temporary fix. It’s now clear that an outright financial collapse threatens all Western economies, because if pension funds, often considered very dull investors because of their risk-averse investing profile, face a threat to their insolvency, it can happen to any other financial institution. I consider that the banking sector will be the next in line.

Banking is a business of trust. If the trust in a bank or in the unlimited support of authorities for the bank, disappears, a bank run commences. One of the most prominent scholars of financial crises, Gary B. Gorton, defines a financial crisis in his book “Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming” as “an event where holders of short-term debt issued by financial intermediaries withdraw en masse or refuse to renew their loans.”

In common language, Gorton says that during financial crises, a large number of holders of banks’ financial liabilities, such as deposits, want to cash out. Hence the name: a bank run. For example, during the Panic of 1819 in the United States, people queued outside banks in long lines to change their new financial innovations, bank notes, to metallic currency. The Panic of 1819 helped to create the first economic depression in the United States.

However, a bank run may not be visible, in the sense that other banks and financial institutions “run” on the liabilities of a bank. For example, during the crisis of 2007–2008, there was a run on sale and repurchase agreements (repo) market, market of commercial paper, and on prime broker balances. Most people didn’t notice these first stages of the panic, because financial firms ran on liabilities and assets of other financial firms. The main point is that, as liabilities are withdrawn in whatever form, en masse, the bank eventually runs out of assets to pledge/sell to fulfill the withdrawal requests, and the bank fails.

Going forward, the biggest risk of a systemic bank run most likely lays in Europe. European companies and households have been and continue to be decimated by ravaging inflation, fast-rising interest rates, and spiking energy prices. They are being hit on all sides, and this will, most likely, cause many of them to fail financially.

Banks are also currently being hit by heavy declines in the value of government bonds, which they use as collateral. These may easily lead to cascading losses on banks, possibly with a never-before-seen speed, size, and width. I find it hard to imagine how these developments wouldn’t lead to a banking crisis, without massive intervention by governments and central banks, that is. And like I’ve been detailing, a banking crisis that begins in Europe, won’t stay there.

How do you prepare for it then? A characteristic feature of a banking crisis is that many banks, possibly all, will close their doors to customers, and issue withdrawal limits. Another characteristic is disruptions in the financial system, most notably on card payments, as a result of which the retail payments system may seize up altogether.

While I was in Greece, in the summer of 2015 with my ex-wife, the whole economy turned into a cash-based one basically over the weekend. The 2015 Greek banking crisis was caused by the European Central Bank, when it, totally irresponsibly and most likely driven by political motives, shut Greek banks from its emergency liquidity assistance.

Cash withdrawal limits were set, credit card machines “disappeared” or “broke down” in restaurants, shops, and more, and finally, cash stopped coming out from the ATMs. Capital controls were enacted, and the ability of ordinary Greeks to transfer money abroad became seriously hindered. We naturally had sufficient cash, which often happens, when one travels with a crisis researcher to a country threatened by a crisis.

The main point is (was), that during banking crises, you won’t have full access to your deposits in the bank. As a result, electronic payments such as bank cards may become useless. In the extreme case, your deposits could be used to recapitalize ailing banks in a process called “bail-in.” Such laws were put in place after the 2008 crisis, and they were enacted for the first time to resolve the banking crisis in Cyprus in 2013. Technically, every sum you have in the bank above the deposit insurance threshold, a limit which also may not be “carved in stone,” is threatened by the bail-ins in a banking crisis.

We warned already in March 2017 that the global financial system, which broke out during the 2008 financial crisis, has never really been healed. We noted that it and the global economy were kept standing merely by continuous central bank and government interventions and nearly unlimited provisions of credit. On Sept. 28, we got a final confirmation from the BOE that this truly is the case.

We are in deep, deep trouble."
Ahh, yes, the vicious circle of margin calls... do you mean "The Truth About The 2.5 Quadrillion Derivatives Bubble" these psychopaths in their infinite greed have created with margin calls? That's a must-read, by the way. Why not at least know why it all, and I mean, ALL, collapses, world wide. You didn't really think you were going to collect that pension, did you? As this article concludes, "We are in deep, deep trouble." To put it mildly...
Related, Must-read:
"Banks Are Over-leveraged 2 QUADRILLION Dollars In Derivatives. 
This Will Be The Worst Financial Collapse EVER"

"A derivative is a contract that derives its value and risk from a particular security (like a stock or commodity) - hence the name derivative. Derivatives are sometimes called secondary securities because they only exist as a result of primary securities like stocks, bonds, and commodities. The four major types of derivative contracts are options, forwards, futures and swaps.

Banks use derivatives to hedge, to reduce the risks involved in the bank’s operations. For example, a bank’s financial profile might make it vulnerable to losses from changes in interest rates. The bank could purchase interest rate futures to protect itself.

Derivatives are a high-risk instrument. The volatile nature of derivatives can lead to huge losses. Moreover, the contracts are designed in such a way that it becomes very complicated for the investors to valuate them."

"The FED Just Flipped Again, Slamming Bonds; Major Grid Collapses Into Darkness"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/4/22:
"The FED Just Flipped Again, Slamming Bonds; 
Major Grid Collapses Into Darkness"
Comments here:

"97.7 Million Birds Are Already Dead As The Worst Bird Flu Outbreak Ever Sweeps Across North America"

Full screen recommended.
"97.7 Million Birds Are Already Dead As The Worst
 Bird Flu Outbreak Ever Sweeps Across North America"
by Epic Economist

"A scary bird flu outbreak is spiraling out of control all across the globe, killing dozens of millions of chickens and turkeys that were supposed to go to our food supply chains during the upcoming holiday season. Experts say the nightmarish pestilence is the worst epidemic of avian influenza ever recorded, and farmers are absolutely terrified by the severity of the situation. Things are escalating quickly, and in the U.S., supplies are getting so tight that consumers have seen egg prices shoot up nearly 40% in August, while the cost of turkey and poultry has been rising almost twice as fast as the official inflation rate. Shortages are expected in the coming weeks and months, and the animal death toll will continue to rise as the weather gets colder and conditions enable the spread of the virus. All this means that our food supply chains are in major trouble, and we’re about to see food prices reach unprecedented highs this fall.

While American farmers struggle to depopulate contaminated flocks, more cases are recorded in several parts of the planet, including in over 30 European countries. According to the Food Safety Authority website, the world is facing the largest epidemic of avian influenza in all history, with over 2,467 outbreaks erupting in Europe alone since the start of the year. Over 47.7 million birds have been culled by poultry facilities where cases of the bird flu have been confirmed in the continent.

What we’re witnessing in America right now is actually worse than what’s happening in Europe. Last month, the total death toll of birds in the U.S. reached a staggering 50 million. Authorities describe the surge as “unprecedented” in scope, breadth, and lethality. Local food producers say that the total number is likely bigger. The official numbers are a “vast undercount,” one Californian farmer said. And though authorities are mainly concerned about poultry farms, the epidemic has struck wild birds, too — from waterfowl to raptors and vultures.

In sum, adding Europe’s 47.7 million dead birds to America’s 50 million dead birds, the global food supply chain has lost a grand total of 97.7 million animals in the past 10 months. The flu is leaving a massive inventory hole in many grocery stores across the nation. Shortages are going to be truly catastrophic, but most people remain unaware of what’s currently going on. Meanwhile, prices continue to climb to sky-highs. The bird flu epidemic pushed the price of turkey hens to soar 30% higher than last year and 80% higher than before the pandemic, and it seems unlikely that will change before the holidays.

This Thanksgiving, turkey shortages are almost certain as grocers run out of the meat and can’t find new suppliers in the market. Many other everyday products that contain chicken and eggs will be harder to find in the weeks and months ahead, which will cause more product stockouts than during last year’s festivities. Poultry farmer, Mark Gordon, said that farmers are “terrified” about the severity of the situation. “We're absolutely terrified of what's going to happen when big numbers of birds are wiped out from the supply chain. We're concerned it could make things a lot worse than it already is,” he stressed.

This is a slow-motion trainwreck that is playing out right before our eyes. A very dangerous development that could make this disaster far, far worse is if the bird flu mutates into a form that can spread easily among humans. We can only hope that this doesn’t happen any time soon. But the truth is that pestilences are becoming increasingly more common all over the world, and many more dangerous and unexpected threats can arise at any moment."

Gerald Celente, "Who Blew Up Nord Stream Pipeline?"

Gerald Celente, 10/4/22:
"Who Blew Up Nord Stream Pipeline?"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:

"Russia Deploys Doomsday Nuclear Ocean Drones As Global Economic Meltdown Looms"

 
by Mike Adams

"Russia has now officially deployed the world's largest submarine which can carry up to eight "apocalypse drone" torpedoes. When detonated, one of these drones unleashes a highly destructive, 1,500 foot high radioactive tsunami that inundates coastal areas of the targeted country, rendering them uninhabitable. Notably, America's most important power centers - government, finance, military and trade - are all located near the coasts.

At the same time, the US government and State Dept are pushing Russia toward nuclear war, practically begging for Putin to nuke the United States before Election Day so that Democrats don't have to face an actual election where 20+ states have new election integrity laws in place.

Get the full report on this, plus the Fed's currency wars with Europe, and a special asset protection interview in today's feature article and podcast here:"
"Russian State TV Threatens Nuclear Strike On 
UK And Warns Of Radioactive Tidal Wave"

Musical Interlude: Moby, "Love Of Strings"

Full screen recommended.
Moby, "Love Of Strings"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Here is one of the largest objects that anyone will ever see on the sky. Each of these fuzzy blobs is a galaxy, together making up the Perseus Cluster, one of the closest clusters of galaxies. The cluster is seen through a foreground of faint stars in our own Milky Way Galaxy.
Near the cluster center, roughly 250 million light-years away, is the cluster's dominant galaxy NGC 1275, seen above as a large galaxy on the image left. A prodigious source of x-rays and radio emission, NGC 1275 accretes matter as gas and galaxies fall into it. The Perseus Cluster of Galaxies, also cataloged as Abell 426, is part of the Pisces-Perseus supercluster spanning over 15 degrees and containing over 1,000 galaxies. At the distance of NGC 1275, this view covers about 15 million light-years.”

Chet Raymo, "Know Thyself"

"Know Thyself"
by Chet Raymo

"The ancient Greek aphorism, attributed to Socrates and others. Good advice, I'm sure. If only we knew what it means. Is it the same as the "examination of conscience" we were asked to perform as young Catholics? "Bless me, Father, for I have sinned." Well, yes, it is good to ask ourselves if we have lived up to our highest moral aspirations. But surely "Know thyself" means more than that.

Does it mean to be aware of our self-awareness? That is to say, not to act impulsively, but reflectively. Thoreau's "I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived."

Or perhaps it means to apply the method of scientia to the problem of consciousness, treat the mind like a fish that can be dissected at the lab bench, watch the brain flickering on the display of a scanning machine as the subject is stimulated with love, sex, fear, music, pain. Neuroscience. Daniel Dennet's book audaciously titled "Consciousness Explained." There is a line from a poem by Jane Hirshfield, in which she questions herself: "A knife cannot cut itself open/ yet you ask me both to be you and to know you."

Is it hopeless then? Is there an essential absurdity in a thing knowing itself? Does knowing necessarily imply a knower more complex than the thing known? Is it possible that we might fully understand, say, the neurology of the sea slug Aplysia, that favorite subject of experimental neurobiologists with only 20,000 central nerve cells, big nerve cells, ten times bigger than human neurons, but not the workings of the human brain, with its 100 billion nerve cells, each one connected to thousands of others?

Hirshfield's poem is titled "Instant Glimpsable Only For An Instant." Perhaps that is the best we can do. To know ourselves in those fleeting moments of recognition than come now and then, often unbidden, sometimes as the result of a chance encounter with beauty or with ugliness, sometimes bidden out of the silence and solitude of meditation - a flash upon one's inward eye that is, perhaps, all the ancients were asking for when they asked us to "know ourselves."
"Instant Glimpsable Only For An Instant"

"Moment. Moment. Moment.
- equal inside you, moment,
the velocitous mountains and cities rising and falling,
songs of children, iridescence even of beetles.
It is not you the locust can strip of all leaf.
Untouchable green at the center,
the wolf too lopes past you and through you as he eats.
Insult to mourn you, you who mourn no one, unable.
Without transformation,
yours the role of the chorus, to whom nothing happens.
The living step forward: choosing to enter, to lose.
I, who am made of you only,
speak these words against your unmasterable instruction -
A knife cannot cut itself open,
yet you ask me both to be you and to know you."

~ Jane Hirshfield

“Life, Explained To You”

“Life, Explained To You”
Author Unknown

“On the first day God created the dog. God said, “Sit all day by the door of your house and bark at anyone who comes in or walks past. I will give you a life span of twenty years.” The dog said, “That’s too long to be barking. Give me ten years and I’ll give you back the other ten.” So God agreed. 

On the second day God created the monkey. God said, “Entertain people, do monkey tricks and make them laugh. I’ll give you a twenty-year life span.” The monkey said, “Monkey tricks for twenty years? I don’t think so. Dog gave you back ten, so that’s what I’ll do too, okay?” And God agreed. 

On the third day God created the cow. “You must go to the field with the farmer all day long and suffer under the sun, have calves, and give milk to support the farmer. I will give you a life span of sixty years.” The cow said, “That’s kind of a tough life you want me to live for sixty years. Let me have twenty and I’ll give back the other forty.” And God agreed again. 

On the fourth day God created man. God said, “Eat, sleep, play, marry and enjoy your life. I’ll give you twenty years.” Man said, “What? Only twenty years? Tell you what, I’ll take my twenty, and the forty the cow gave back, and the ten the monkey gave back, and the ten the dog gave back, that makes eighty, okay?” “Okay,” said God, “You’ve got a deal.” 

So that is why the first twenty years we eat, sleep, play, and enjoy ourselves; the next forty years we slave in the sun to support our family; the next ten years we do monkey tricks to entertain the grandchildren; and the last ten years we sit on the front porch and bark at everyone.”
“Life has now been explained to you.”

"Sometimes..."

 

"The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage" (Excerpt)

"The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage"
by Monkeywerx

Excerpt: "As I sit here with my head on a swivel after the initial SITREP broadcast discussing the findings around this issue, I am thankful that the sea of “Monkey Nation” supporters run deep around the world and that we have so many “trackers” with the ability to do what I do that I know should something happen to me, there are tens of thousands that can continue on with this effort. As it is said, “give a man a fish feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, feed him for life.” I have indeed taught so many enthusiasts around the world how to watch the skies over the past 2 years from YouTube that they could never stop the effort. Thank God for that. Plus, the tools to track just keep getting better and easier - eg SkyGlass.

Okay, let’s dig into what we know about the subject. First and foremost, everything I have shown and discovered is open source - meaning it is available to anyone around the world. I just happen to know where to look and have the tools that give me the opportunity to find the data.

That said, the Russians also have this data and it certainly didn’t help our case that Biden told them we would take the pipeline out should the Russians invade Ukraine. We have seen Biden “slip up” on many occasions so this isn’t a surprise. You would think that the bobbleheads would have at least put someone in the game that would have the cognitive ability to at a minimum play the game, but that clearly isn’t the case.

Here are a few facts about the sabotage:
1. Biden said we were going to do it.
2. It happened “overnight” on the 26th of September.
3. We have a US Navy P8 fly from the United States to a refueling rendezvous point over GrudziÄ…dz Poland at 0210 hrs GMT.
4. The two aircraft, Callsign N/A, and BART12 sync up at 26,400 ft for an extended 1:20 minute refueling, disconnecting at 0328 hrs GMT.
5. The BART12 air refueler RTB’d to Spangdahlem Air Base Germany and one should note the flight record has been wiped.
6. The Navy P8 then continues onto the Nord Stream Pipeline location and descends to an altitude of <10,000 ft at 0345 hrs GMT.
7. The Navy P8 exits the area just prior to 0700 hrs and is the only aircraft over the area the entire time.
8. At 0709 hrs GMT the Navy P8 returns back to the United States. Note: the US Navy P8 HexCode is AE6851 and is NOT listed in the aircraft database. Furthermore, the aircraft flew as “masked” meaning it did not want to be tracked.
9. Datapoint, there were recorded 2.3 magnitude shakes in the area at that same time.

The following morning NATO Forces announce that overnight the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline has been sabotaged. A Poland Ministry Official posts a tweet thanking the United States for taking out the Pipeline.

On September 29th in front of the UN Security Council a Russian Federation spokesperson presents the known facts and asks the United States representative directly in a yes or no requested response, “did the United States take out the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline” in which the US representative did not confirm nor deny it and didn’t answer the question, but instead took an offensive posture."
Full article is here:

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/4/22"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/4/22"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Latest Market Analysis, Updated 10/4/22
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...

The Daily "Near You?"

Machias, Maine, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Langston Hughes, "Life is Fine "

"Life is Fine"

"I went down to the river,
I set down on the bank.
I tried to think but couldn't,
So I jumped in and sank.
I came up once and hollered!
I came up twice and cried!
If that water hadn't a-been so cold
I might've sunk and died.
But it was Cold in that water! It was cold!

I took the elevator
Sixteen floors above the ground.
I thought about my baby,
And thought I would jump down.
I stood there and I hollered!
I stood there and I cried!
If it hadn't a-been so high
I might've jumped and died.
But it was High up there! It was high!

So since I'm still here livin',
I guess I will live on.
I could've died for love -
But for livin' I was born.
Though you may hear me holler,
And you may see me cry -
I'll be dogged, sweet baby,
If you gonna see me die.

Life is fine! Fine as wine! Life is fine!"

- Langston Hughes

"For This Is What We Do..."

"Life is painful and messed up. It gets complicated at the worst of times, and sometimes you have no idea where to go or what to do. Lots of times people just let themselves get lost, dropping into a wide open, huge abyss. But that's why we have to keep trying. We have to push through all that hurts us, work past all our memories that are haunting us. Sometimes the things that hurt us are the things that make us strongest. A life without experience, in my opinion, is no life at all. And that's why I tell everyone that, even when it hurts, never stop yourself from living."
- Alysha Speer

"The joke was thinking you were ever really in charge of your life. You pressed your oar down into the water to direct the canoe, but it was the current that shot you through the rapids. You just hung on and hoped not to hit a rock or a whirlpool."
- Scott Turow

"What keeps you going isn't some fine destination but just the road you're on, and the fact that you know how to drive. You keep your eyes open, you see this damned-to-hell world you got born into, and you ask yourself, 'What life can I live that will let me breathe in and out and love somebody or something and not run off screaming into the woods?'"
- Barbara Kingsolver

“For this is what we do. Put one foot forward and then the other. Lift our eyes to the snarl and smile of the world once more. Think. Act. Feel. Add our little consequence to the tides of good and evil that flood and drain the world. Drag our shadowed crosses into the hope of another night. Push our brave hearts into the promise of a new day. With love: the passionate search for truth other than our own. With longing: the pure, ineffable yearning to be saved. For so long as fate keeps waiting, we live on. God help us. God forgive us. We live on.”
- Gregory David Roberts, “Shantaram”

Bill Bonner, "U-Turn Ahead?"

"U-Turn Ahead?"
by Bill Bonner

"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed…"
~ William Butler Yeats

Baltimore, Maryland - "U-turn… no, you turn. We’ll all turn.Yesterday morning, Liz Truss called off Britain’s proposed tax cut. Someone must have reminded her that the cut would inevitably lead to higher deficits… which would inevitably lead to more inflation… which would inevitably lead to un-happiness in merry ol’ England. The Guardian: "The humiliating U-turn forced on the government will have economic as well as political consequences. A week of turmoil in the financial markets showed just how badly his mini-budget had gone down with international investors. The pound fell, the cost of government borrowing rose, mortgage products were pulled."

Meanwhile, the Australians turned the wheel too… raising rates less than expected. And as the US economy weakens, investors bet heavily on a U-turn by the Fed. Bloomberg: "Bulls Storm Into Stocks, Bonds Amid Peak-Rate Bets: Markets Wrap." "A bullish start to the fourth quarter deepened in global markets, lifting US index futures and Treasuries, as investors wagered the end of monetary tightening is mere months away. The dollar slid for a second day.

Investors see weaker-than-estimated US manufacturing data supporting a dovish tilt at the Federal Reserve after 3 percentage points of hikes began to tell on the economy. Money markets now see the Fed Funds Rate peaking below 4.5% by March. Speculation is growing that the global wave of disruptive monetary tightening is nearing its end…"

Return to Reckless? “Disruptive monetary policy?” That’s what the Bloomberg team calls the Fed’s attempt to get back to normal. The elite were having such a good time pumping fake money and credit into the system. And then… someone comes along to ‘disrupt’ the party. They don’t like it. But this party is coming to an end, whether they like it or not. And not just because central banks are raising rates. The whole post-war era is petering out. Things are falling apart. Throughout the West, the elite are failing, flailing, and falling down.

In Italy, voters (26% of them) chose a woman who talks like a conservative, of sorts. She is for motherhood. For Christianity. She wants men to be men… and women to be women. And she doesn’t like immigrants. “Fascist!” Western opinion mongers were fast to tag her. But, like Trump, Meloni seems little threat to the elite’s important programs; she will stick with them all – NATO, sanctions against Russia, welfare… deficits… the euro. The parts of the EU system that stick in her craw the most are those that would keep her from doing even more damage – that is, the restrictions on spending and debt.

In England itself, no one is quite sure where Ms. Truss came from. As near as we can tell, she was chosen because she was such a nonentity that no one hated her.

In Germany and France, the elite are facing another crisis of their own making. The falling leaves may soon be followed by a ‘winter of discontent’ – made cold and dangerous by their own hostility to their number one provider of energy, Russia. And now terrorists – presumably from the US – took out the pipeline that could have brought them some relief.

Tip o’ the Hand: Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, revealed the gambit when he declared that the sabotage was a ‘tremendous opportunity’ for Europe to wean itself off cheap Russian fuel… by turning to expensive American fuel.

Why would Europe want to do such a thing to itself? The average German has no interest in punishing Russia for whatever crime he believes it has committed… but, for now, he goes meekly along with the elite program, however foggy its goals and dubious its means.

As the price of gas goes up… and the weather turns cold… people will cut back and make do, as best they can. Wood-burning stoves and firewood are said to be in short supply. Thermostats are being turned down. Street lights are turned off. Even the Eiffel Tower has gone dark. Big factories do not cut back little by little. They throw the switch. Already, some of Germany’s fertilizer and chemical output capacity is either closing down… or making plans to do so. This will have a huge effect on next year’s agricultural output.

The Netherlands already has the distinction of being one of the world’s smallest by landmass, but greatest by export, vegetable producers. It does so by growing its legumes in vast greenhouses which you see when you fly into Amsterdam. These farmers face staggering energy bills. Some 40% of them are said to be in ‘financial distress.’ How many will go out of business? How many will close up? We don’t know, but the price of kale and cabbage may soon shoot up too.

The shutdowns of the Covid Panic caused huge losses. So will the shutdowns from a lack of gas. Here’s Thomas Fazi at “Unherd:” "In the UK, 45 million people are forecast to face fuel poverty by January 2023; as a result, “millions of children’s development will be blighted” with lung damage, toxic stress and deepening educational inequalities, as children struggle to keep up with school work in freezing homes. Lives will be lost, experts warn. Meanwhile, in Germany’s Rheingau-Taunus district, the authorities have carried out a simulation of what such a blackout would mean for them, and the results are shocking: more than 400 people would die in the first 96 hours. And this in a district of just 190,000 inhabitants."

Like the Fed… the Bank of England… and the Truss government… ‘the People’ have their limits. They may be long-suffering… and, like all beasts of burden, slow to anger. But their patience is not unlimited. How far can the elite go? How much incompetence and corruption will the deplorables tolerate? How much can the economy stand? We may soon find out."
Joel’s Note: There’s been plenty of finger-pointing and scuttlebutt surrounding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline sabotage… and in all likelihood, we mere mortals may never find out what really went down. Should we take Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, at her word, for example, when she made this not-so-veiled threat back in January 27, 2022: “With regards to Nord Stream Two, we continue to have very strong and clear conversations with our German allies and I want to be clear with you today. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Of course, Mrs. Nuland is just an undersecretary, something of a diplomatic foot soldier. Perhaps she was merely speaking above her pay grade, rattling sabers and whatnot. Let’s see what the “Big Guy” had to say, not two weeks later. Here’s ABC News, from February 7, 2022…

Pres. Biden: “If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Reporter: “But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?”
Biden: “I promise you, we will be able to do that.”

Whether President Biden kept his promise… or someone else “brought an end” to the pipeline… we couldn’t say. And yet, we can be relatively sure those who did the deed – and, perhaps more importantly, those who did not – know where each of the respective geopolitical players stands.

If, as some contend, Russia decided to take out its own infrastructure (rather than, say, simply keep the taps off…) that would be one helluva “false flag” moment. To what end? Not de-escalation, surely… But if Russia didn’t do it (and therefore, presumably, knows as much), it means they understand it to be an act of Western/NATO aggression, as they have indeed alleged.

Either way, we mere citizens being given the mushroom treatment (kept in the dark and fed… “fertilizer”) should probably expect things to heat up from here, just not in the way that keeps a continent nice and cozy over the long, cold winter ahead."

"Banks are Putting Holds on Cash Deposits"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/4/22:
"Banks are Putting Holds on Cash Deposits"
"Just when you thought it would be done and there would be no more banking is everything has changed. Banks are now putting holes on cash deposits."
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"How It Really Is"

Gregory Mannarino, "Global Bond Yields Crater! The Stage Is Set And Central Banks are Buying It All"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/4/22:
"Global Bond Yields Crater! 
The Stage Is Set And Central Banks are Buying It All"
Comments here:
And why are they so desperately, frantically doing this? It's inflate or die, literally, if they can't maintain the present values a margin call tsunami of incomprehensible dimensions results in a total global collapse of corporate, banking, and governmental defaults and bankruptcies. They will fail, inevitably. See the following article below... 

"Shopping At Meijer! Massive Sales This Week!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/4/22:
"Shopping At Meijer! Massive Sales This Week!"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing some massive sales this week! We do find some higher prices, and some empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting in products!"
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