Friday, September 16, 2022

Bill Bonner, "Following the Leader"

"Following the Leader"
From spouses to Fed Heads to
 Primary Trends, here's what to watch...
by Bill Bonner

Blenheim, England - "What are we doing in Blenheim, readers might wonder? We wonder too. When a man is building his career, his wife and children are often dragooned into service… moving from place to place, keeping his dinner warm when he gets home late, ironing his shirts so that he will look more presentable in business meetings. Later in life, after his career has peaked out and he has alienated his family, it is he who follows and they who lead. He attends weddings and christenings… family gatherings and birthday parties. And, when his wife is an ‘equestrian,’ he goes to Blenheim Palace Horse Trials. More about that later.

Cultivating Failure: Oh my… looks like we were wrong about the Kherson offensive. It looked like a sure loser to us. But the media now says it is a great success. Some reporters and opinion mongers say it means the war has turned in the Ukraine’s direction… and may soon be over. Which just goes to show – well, we don’t know what it goes to show. But there are so many things to be wrong about; choosing the right ones is the main challenge in life.

Here at BonnerPrivateResearch we are not always right. Sentimentally, we favor the lost cause, the diehard and the underdog – which is the losing side. But we don’t know in advance which side will lose. And wars have a way of backfiring… and success has a way of cultivating failure.

How much better it would have been for the young Jerome Powell, fresh out of Georgetown Law Center (in our class!) to have taken up chasing ambulances. He could have put up a billboard along the DC beltway: “Stay out of jail…even if you’re guilty. Collect $$$ – even if you have no case. Call Jay today!” Instead, he made such a success of his career, after joining the Federal Reserve, that he now feels the weight of the whole world economy on his weak, rounded shoulders.

Humans can survive defeat… and learn from it; victory is a much bigger danger. And Zelensky… the actor who once amused crowds by pretending to play the piano with his penis? We don’t know, but we suspect that the current narrative by the western press – describing him as if he had just captured Moscow – is subject to amendment, too.

As for the progress of the war… the effectiveness of the Russian air force… the morale of the troops… or the cleverness of the officer class – we have nothing to say. We are as lost in the fog of war as everyone else…

Time and Tide: Money is our beat. And all we can do, still subject to error, is to try to look for the Primary Trend… and see where it leads us. In our markets, we think we see the beginning of the new trend, circa 2022. Bonds topped out, after a 40-year bull market, in 2020. Stocks topped out a year later. Now – if we’re right – we’re in for a long period of falling real values – for stocks, bonds and real estate.

The primary financial trend works together with a dark trend in the economy. Growth rates have been falling for the last 20 years. Recently, US growth has been negative… meaning, we are going backwards, and getting poorer. Wage gains have been negative (adjusted for inflation) for the last 17 months straight. This calculation probably flatters the situation. In terms of the major costs in a person’s life – food, housing, and transportation – ‘inflation’ is actually worse than the feds say.

Despite a slight decline in the Consumer Price Index last month, the cost of food is still going up at a double digit rate. Houses, too. The average house sold for $161,000 in 1999. Now, it’s $428,000. In terms of the years you need to work to buy a house, it was 5.75 in 1999. Now, you’ll have to work for 7.5 years. And fuel? It took less than 2 hours of work to fill a 20-gallon gas tank in 1999. Today, it takes 2 and a half.

We’re measuring these things in time, because time doesn’t change. An hour in 1999 was exactly the same as an hour today. And when you need to spend more time to earn life’s necessities, you are poorer. Looking at a long term chart of wages, adjusted for inflation we see that real US earnings stopped going up in the early ‘70s. Today, an average American worker earns about the same as he did in 1972.

The Road to Nowhere: Now, that’s a Long-term Primary Trend!…a trip to nowhere over half a century. What should you have done, Dear Reader, if you had realized what a zero-sum hand the working class was holding in 1973? You should have joined the capitalists! The way to get ahead in the post-70’s America was to join the rentiers… you know, the people with capital. Yes, now it is obvious. After Richard Nixon freed the US dollar from its golden shackles, the place to be was where the new footloose dollars were going – to Wall Street.

The financial trend meant that money went to money… and the money was in Wall Street. And all you had to do was to borrow a lot of money… refinancing every time interest rates went down – which they did (after 1980) for the next 40 years. Borrow $100,000 in 1980… buy the 30 Dow stocks… refinance… refinance… refinance.

By 2020, you are paying about $350 a month on your outstanding balance (still $100,000… which is now worth only $28,000 in 1980 money)… but your Dow investment is now worth $3.5 million. What luck! What a success! What a genius you were! And now? The primary trend that pushed asset prices so high, seems to have turned around. That $3.5 million of 2020 is already down to $3.1 million… and it looks like it could go much lower. What to do now? Tune in on Monday…"
Joel’s Note: Speaking of paybacks, we all know a great debt reckoning is coming due… that money borrowed from the future must eventually be paid back, and with interest. But what happens when your national credit card is bumping up against $31 TRILLION dollars outstanding, as is the case in the U.S. of A., and interest rates are on the march? (For those keeping score at home, that’s about $93,700 in national debt per citizen… or $245,000 per taxpayer.)

Well, for one thing, interest payments start to look pretty hefty, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total income. Rising rates, which push up the cost of borrowing, only add to that pressure. “Net interest expense is $471 billion year-to-date (the government fiscal year ends in September),” Dan Denning wrote in a private note to the BPR team yesterday. “That makes it 10% of total government tax receipts.” (Total receipts were $4,408 billion over the same period.)

Put another way, for every $10 you pay in taxes, $1 is going on interest payments to service the national debt. And there’s only one way it’s going from here…"

"Is There An Answer..."

"Is there an answer to the question of why bad things happen to good people? The response would be to forgive the world for not being perfect, to forgive God for not making a better world, to reach out to the people around us, and to go on living despite it all, no longer asking why something happened, but asking how we will respond, what we intend to do now that it has happened."
- Harold S. Kushner

"Them Are Fightin’ Words"

"Them Are Fightin’ Words"
by Addison Wiggin

“Life is a fight for territory; so is your success.”
-Nkem Mpamah

“What if the Founding Fathers had moved off to Belize instead of helping sort out what surely must have been a similar mess right here?” writes reader Zeke L from Oklahoma. Reader mail comes in all forms. We assume Zeke is commenting on the conversation on the Empire of Debt Bill Bonner and I had on The Wiggin Sessions this week.

The very “Idea of America” – as reimagined by Bill Bonner and Pierre Lemieux in 2003 – is by its nature as much a geographical event as an historical event. The triple crown of climate, crops, and the religiously ostracized coalesced into the prime conditions for the seed of American civilization to be planted. “The idea is really very simple,” Bill says.

“Cooperation, win-win deals, is what allowed civilization to go forward.” The colonists were left to their own devices. The climate cooperated. And there was a burgeoning global trade in commodities. There are a lot of pieces to civilization,” Mr. Bonner tries to explain, “but that is probably the critical one, that when you see somebody, you can't kill them and you can't steal their stuff. You have to work with them. You have to work out a deal.”

This is high-level, philosophical stuff, made simple and accessible with everyday language. He continues: "Once you win-win, that means you have to create something. There are other things that go along with civilization. That rule is probably the cornerstone, but you need property rights. If you don't have property rights, then you can't really build because you can't protect what you've got.

And you need money. You need money to be able to exchange your product with other people. And you need a language. You need a written language. Otherwise, you can't make any progress. So all these things sort of came together over thousands of years and these things are different from what a lot of people think of as civilization.

A lot of people think the government can pass a law and make us richer or make us more civilized or whatever. But it ain't so. It doesn't work that way. Civilization arises from the bottom. It doesn't come down from the top and from the bottom people make deals with each other, which are essentially win-win.

We have to remember that the Founding Fathers were revolutionaries in the eyes of the British Crown. Their Declaration of Independence was a declaration of war. And let us not forget the deracination of the Native Americans from the original Thirteen Colonies and the horrors of Amistad. That's why I called it win-win or lose,” Bill says. “Because the opposite, the losing, is what happens all the time when the government gets into the picture and they start a war or something and everybody loses. Civilization goes backward.”

From the Declaration of Independence, in what is called “The Indictment” of the Crown’s overbearing governance: "Such is now the necessity which constrains them [the new Americans] to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world."

As they’d say in Baltimore… them are fightin’ words. On Wednesday we were ruminating on the anniversary of Francis Scott Key’s poem turned national anthem which happened here in ‘Bawlmer.’ So… I guess we’ve got patriotic themes on the brain.

The true nature of civilization, however, is more than history and geography. Blessed as we may have been to happen upon such a land. Each generation, in choosing to live somewhere – somewhere real, with land and toil and natural rights – a deal must be made. Whether that deal is win-win or lose, is up to those who declare, those who speak up, those who present their case for independence.

This is nothing new, Bill exclaims: "There's nothing new in my book that you can't find in Adam Smith or the texts of Free Market economists or Milton Friedman. A lot of people write about the same sort of thing. And everybody comes at it from a different angle. What I tried to do was to come at it from an angle that made sense to me and this does. And I think so far it's been missed. In fact, our current civilization or our current status of society is going in the other direction, with more and more people who think that they can get something by using political means, which are essentially the opposite of win-win."

A political move, anything political is win-lose by definition. Would such an idea have arisen and manifested had Jefferson, Madison and Hamilton fled to Belize, as Zeke wants to know? Probably not. America could only have happened where it did. “We need all hands on deck to help guide America back in the coming years,” Zeke concludes, and we concur.

It’s Friday folks. Follow your bliss,"

"The Fourth Turn, Turn, Turn" (Excerpt)

"The Fourth Turn, Turn, Turn"
by Charles Hugh Smith

Excerpt: "The cycles of The Fourth Turning, Fischer and Turchin are all in alignment at this point in history. The 1997 book "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy" proposed a cyclical pattern of four 20-year generations which culminate in a national crisis every 80 years. The book identifies these dates as Fourth Turnings: 1781 (Revolutionary War), 1861 (Civil War) and 1941 (global war). add 80 years and voila, 2021.

I use the term Fourth Turning generically to describe an existential crisis that decisively changes the course of national identity and history. In other words, we don't have to accept the book's theory of generational dynamics to accept an 80-year cycle. There are other causal dynamics in play that also tend to cycle: the credit (Kondratieff) cycle, for example. While each of the previous existential crises were resolved positively, positive outcomes are not guaranteed: dissolution and collapse are also potential outcomes.

David Hackett Fischer's book "The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History" proposes another cycle: humans expand their numbers and consumption until they've exploited and depleted all available resources. As resources become scarce, societies and economies unravel as humans do not respond well to rising prices generated by scarcities.

The unraveling continues until consumption is realigned with the resources available. In the past this meant either a mass die-off that drastically reduced human numbers and consumption (for example, The Black Plague), a decline in fertility that slowly reduced population to fit resources, mass migration to locales with more resources or the discovery and exploitation of a new scalable energy source that enabled a new cycle of rising consumption.

The 14th century Black Death reduce Europe's population by roughly 40%, enabling depleted forests to regrow and depleted agricultural land to restore fertility. Once the human population regained its numbers and consumption in the 17th century, wood was once again under pressure as the key source of energy, shipbuilding, housing, etc.

The development of steam power and the technologies of mining enabled the exploitation of coal, which soon replaced wood as the primary energy source. Oil and natural gas added to the energy humans could tap, followed (at a much more modest level) by nuclear power. Despite gargantuan investments, the recent push to develop solar and wind energy has yielded very modest results, as globally these sources provide about 5% of total energy consumption. (See chart below)

It's self-evident that despite breezy claims of endless expansion of consumption, the global human population has now exceeded the resources available for practical extraction. Energy, fresh water, wild fisheries and fertile soils have all been exploited and the easy/cheap-to-extract resources have been depleted. So once again it's crunch-time: either we proactively reduce consumption to align with available resources, or Nature will do it for us via scarcities."
View this complete, illustrated, article here:

Must Watch! "This is the Opening Act of the Meltdown"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 9/16/22:
"This is the Opening Act of the Meltdown"
"People keep hoping for a quick ending to the economic problems. This is the opening act. We’re going to see nothing but chaos from here on out."
Comments here:
"The opening act of the meltdown"... Yes, it is. Already chaotic. World-wide economic collapse resulting in many company and corporate bankruptcies and job losses; soaring prices for food with true inflation rate 17.1%, huge shortages and much worse coming; rampant increase in violent crimes everywhere; 2 million foreclosures and evictions currently happening; "vaccine" deaths exploding to genocidal levels, quite intentionally; homelessness and camps everywhere; a nuclear war very possible, even probable; substance abuse and deaths soaring; fuel oil and energy prices rising rapidly - how will you drive your car or heat your home in the coming very cold winter? And on and on. Can you deny this? I can't...
Here's a video metaphor of where we are now. You know what's coming...
And it is.
Full screen recommended.

Gregory Mannarino, "Stock Market Set To Drop At The Open; Goldman Sachs Warns Of Steep Selloff In Stocks"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/16/22:
"Stock Market Set To Drop At The Open; 
Goldman Sachs Warns Of Steep Selloff In Stocks"
Comments here:
Market Data Center, Live Updates:

Jim Kunstler, "Rope-a-Dope"

"Rope-a-Dope"
by Jim Kunstler

"Between vanishing livelihoods, car-jackings gone wild, fears of stroking out or infarcting from their mRNA boosters, threats of nuclear annihilation over Ukraine, and remorseless waves of mindf**kery emanating from the evil machine fronted by “Joe Biden,” is it any wonder that Americans struggle to understand what is happening to our country?

Last week, the “president” blurted out “we beat Big Pharma!” That was a shocker. He didn’t elaborate. Did the White House staff and the Pfizer C-suite meet for a volleyball game at Rehoboth beach? Karine Jean-Pierre didn’t say. Nor did anyone mention the government-purchased 171-million doses of the new bivalent Covid “vaccines” the FDA is rolling out. Do you wonder what the price-per-dose was? Go suck an egg… you’re not allowed to know. The compliant search engines will not tell you. Not even the one that goes quack. That was some “beat,” though, huh? Wait for the news about who actually steps up to take this new, virtually untested shot. Hint: people who live under a rock.

This week, the “commander-in-chief” declared that his Inflation Reduction Act quashed inflation. Roger that, sir! You are the King Canute of economics! They had a party on the White House lawn to celebrate. James Taylor came down to fluff the crowd with song, leaving his brain behind in the Berkshires. Then, “Joe Biden” flew into his now-customary ‘roid rage, huffing and puffing and blowing smoke up America’s ass. The stock markets were not fooled. The very hour “JB” was dialing up the gaslight, the DOW landed 1,200-plus points below its morning open. Thud….
They are working this old dog hard as all their narratives shred, the economy heads south, and a karma train chugs down the tracks with a cargo of retribution aimed at the Party of Chaos and all its wicked, seditious, tyrannical flunkies. “Joe Biden” knows that he’s in its headlight. Joshua Philip at The Epoch Times’s CrossroadsET podcast had an elegant theory about the backstage doings concerning the fate of The Big Guy. (Check out shows for Sept 12 and 13.)

What “JB” fears, Mr. Philip says, is that his nemesis, Mr. Trump, following a decisive Red win in the 2022 midyears, will manage to get a few key states to de-certify their 2020 electoral college votes - based on proven ballot fraud - thus triggering a “contingency election” in the US House of Representatives, with one vote for each state, which Mr. Trump would likely win. Far out as it sounds, the machinery for all this is embedded deep in the constitution and federal statutory law.

The so-called Deep State - yes, that one… the administrative Moloch that ate Washington - fears for its existence in such a seemingly far-out case. As it should. Because Mr. Trump would replace the sniveling tool Merrick Garland with an Attorney General interested in restoring the rule of law, which will necessarily require the imposition of said law on a large cast of sinister characters in the federal bureaucracy, plus not a few elected officials, who have engaged in systematic seditious treachery lo these many years.

Among these are the upper ranks of the FBI, whose multi-year illegal antics have climaxed in the August raid on Mar-a-Lago, and the September blitz of late-night, SWAT-team subpoena servings and phone-grabbings on Mr. Trump’s associates and lawyers. Seems the FBI might have been rope-a-doped on the Mar-a-Lago caper. What the FBI confiscated were reams of evidence of the agency’s own misconduct dating back through the RussiaGate op. Then they attempted to hide the list of all that material by redacting the affidavit that accompanied the search warrant. Their aim: to designate all that evidence inadmissible in future proceedings against them due to it being tagged to an “ongoing investigation” that will never end. This has been FBI Chief Chris Wray’s ploy every time he’s been faced serious questioning in Congress. I can’t speak about ongoing investigations…

Late Thursday, however, federal Judge Aileen Cannon blocked the FBI’s use of the seized material in any criminal probe against Mr. Trump, and, at his request, appointed a “Special Master” to sort out the true ownership and privilege status of the docs. The Special Master is one retired federal judge Raymond J. Dearie. Mr. Dearie has until November 30 to complete his review of the material. By then, of course, the midterm election will be over; the FBI and its parent agency, the DOJ, will be making plans to do some ‘splainin’ to the new Congress come January. Game, set… Mr. Trump. Match to-be-determined.

Two more miscellaneous items du jour: Is Special Counsel John Durham preparing to fold up his tent? Some observers think so. He disbanded his grand jury. The trial of Igor Danchenko awaits, a subsidiary character in the RussiaGate saga. If it is so that Mr. Durham’s inquiry ends with this minnow, then it will be the most astounding cover-up of an official crime spree in US history. What is the net result of Mr. Durham’s work to date? Conviction of FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith for falsifying documents in a FISA Court proceeding - with no punishment. Presiding over the Clinesmith trial was Judge James Boasberg, a FISA court judge himself, who was repeatedly snookered by the FBI in issuing FISA warrants against Trump associates. The mills of the federal judiciary grind mysteriously.

So, after Mr. Danchenko’s case is disposed of, will that be all? Mr. Durham is obliged to supply a final report. But AG Merrick Garland is not obliged to make it public. One sees the sphincter of a cosmic black hole closing.

Last, is the comedy of Governor Ron DeSantis flying fifty illegal immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard, summer playground of America’s Woke-ocracy. Whoa! Whoa! Whoa! Duke County officials labeled it “a humanitarian situation.” MV Homeless Coordinator Lisa Belcastro complained that the posh little island lacked “resources” to accommodate the new arrivals. Surely Barack Obama, or some other celebrity property-owner out there, could throw a benefit party to support the brave little band of travelers. Pass the arugula crostini! Massachusetts has eight “sanctuary cities,” but the state as a whole hasn’t claimed that honorific. State Senator Julian Cyr of Cape Cod remarked, “This is deeply disgusting…a cruel ruse that manipulates families that are seeking a better life.” Uh-huh…. Odd, nobody said that about the countless federal flights of border-jumpers from Texas and elsewhere to blue states all over the land the past two years. Note: pertinent observation by Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin down on the US-Mexico border."

"Prices Are Getting Crazy At Aldi! "What Now?!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 9/16/22:
"Prices Are Getting Crazy At Aldi! "What Now?!"
"In today's vlog we are at Aldi, and are noticing some crazy price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

I've never said anything about myself on this blog, and won't, it was never about me and I don't need stroking, but this outrages me. Commercials everywhere. What a disgrace! I was a Marine infantry rifleman, MOS 0311, at LeJeune for a year long ago, and now we know they knew about this all along since 1953 and never told us or did anything about it until 1985. But now, if you have any of a dozen cancers, there's "compensation", a couple hundred dollars a month for however long you still live. Yeah, Semper Fi...

Musical Interlude: Disturbed "The Sound Of Silence"

Full screen recommended.
Official release.
Disturbed "The Sound Of Silence"
Singer: David Draiman
839,794,039 views.
Full screen recommended.
Conan O'Brian Show live performance.
Disturbed "The Sound Of Silence"
132,890,662 views.

Folks, there's "something" here, what it is I can't say, but if there are 
words for it I don't know them, and can only stand in speechless awe...

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 9/16/22"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 9/16/22"
Dem Election Plan: Lie, Cheat, Steal, Intimidate
 & Silence While Economy Implodes
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"It’s clear to me that the Deep State Democrat Party has zero to offer voters. Killing babies, taking your guns, offering unlimited war funding for Ukraine and driving you into poverty is not a vote-getting platform, but that is their platform. This is why the Dem election plan appears to be: lie, cheat, steal, intimidate (with the FBI and DOJ) and silence any opposition or critic. Can it work? No! But the desperate Dems are trying it anyway because it’s all they’ve got. Whether it’s raiding President Trump’s home or taking pillow man Mike Lindell’s phone while serving a search warrant at a fast food joint, that’s the plan in plain sight.”

This weird political theater is happening all because they know the real Biden approval numbers that the public does not get to see. The AP just came out with a new poll that says Biden’s numbers are on the rise. I say this is a continuing Biden-psyop that is total bull crap. They are trying to give Biden some coattails for the upcoming midterm election, and I think the lying legacy media (LLM) are lying to do it. It ain’t going to work. Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer is already throwing in the towel on the House and says Nancy is not going to retain the majority. Maybe this is why Pelosi wants an ambassador job from the Biden handlers. The real approval number is 12% for sleepy Joe. Again, the public never sees this number, but everybody in the know knows it.

The stock market tanked 1,500 points this week alone, inflation holding at 8.3% (the real number is about 18% according to Shadowstats.com), and the Fed is determined to fight inflation with rate hikes. The hike next week will be at least .75%, but people are worried about a full 1% hike to kill the inflation monster, which will kill the economy. Add the financial implosion taking place in the EU as the war with Russia continues, and this brings to mind the phrase “Run Forrest Run.” You better get ready because there is no way out this time. The “Everything Implosion” is coming.

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these
 stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9/16/22:

Must Watch! "Economic Apocalypse Imminent; The Scariest Housing Crash Has Begun"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/15/22:
"Economic Apocalypse Imminent; 
The Scariest Housing Crash Has Begun"
Comments here:

"Horror Of America's New Breadlines! The Cost Of Living Is Pushes More People Into Poverty"

Full screen recommended.
"Horror Of America's New Breadlines!
 The Cost Of Living Is Pushes More People Into Poverty"
by Epic Economist

"The horror of breadlines is back in America. Food banks all over the country are being overwhelmed by a massive surge in demand as the cost of living crisis continues to push more people into poverty. Food lines are getting increasingly longer as prices of everyday necessities rise much faster than people’s incomes. Even though authorities say that inflation is easing, for millions of hard-working Americans out there, it certainly doesn’t feel that way. The price of most of the goods we buy and consume on a daily basis is going up at a much brisker pace than official inflation numbers suggest, and people from all over the U.S. are seeing their lifestyles be absolutely eviscerated by soaring living expenses. That’s why an increasing number of them are turning to food banks. The bad news is that many charities are starting to send people away or closing doors altogether because they don’t have enough supplies for everyone.

From coast to coast, demand for food assistance is rapidly growing. Even in rural locations, such as northwest Montana, food banks are witnessing an unprecedented surge in the number of families in need of help. In the Flathead region, pantries are struggling with emptier shelves and scarcer donations while demand for their services continues to rise. “Our numbers have definitely been increasing,” Ann Bohmer, co-manager of the Columbia Falls Food Bank, said. “[There’s been an] influx of people and a shortage of supplies.” According to Bohmer, the food bank is now overwhelmed by the level of demand it is experiencing, but the problem of stressed and understocked pantries is not unique to Montana.

Unfortunately, the same thing can be said for numerous other facilities across the country. With food and gas prices skyrocketing, Americans are being forced to pinch pennies and limit purchases. In August, grocery prices increased 10.8% compared to a year ago. And while bills are getting higher, lines at food banks are getting longer.

Sadly, higher costs and supply chain constraints are forcing dozens of U.S. food banks to either shut down or reduce services at a time when they are needed the most. Recent reports describe that food shortages and grocery inflation led several “charitable nonprofits to shutter, temporarily close, or reduce services.”

Even some of the world’s wealthiest nations aren’t being spared. In the UK, “four out of 10 Universal Credit claimants have admitted to missing meals over the summer in order to keep up with rising costs”.

The saddest part of it all is that this is just the beginning. We’re being repeatedly warned that there will be widespread food shortages all over the globe next year. Even the head of the UN is alerting that there will be “multiple famines” in 2023. In the meantime, breadlines are getting longer and longer, while millions of acres of crops continue to get destroyed by extreme weather events all over the planet."

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Wings II, Return To Freedom"

2002, "Wings II, Return To Freedom"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Stars are sometimes born in the midst of chaos. About 3 million years ago in the nearby galaxy M33, a large cloud of gas spawned dense internal knots which gravitationally collapsed to form stars. NGC 604 was so large, however, it could form enough stars to make a globular cluster.
Many young stars from this cloud are visible in the above image from the Hubble Space Telescope, along with what is left of the initial gas cloud. Some stars were so massive they have already evolved and exploded in a supernova. The brightest stars that are left emit light so energetic that they create one of the largest clouds of ionized hydrogen gas known, comparable to the Tarantula Nebula in our Milky Way's close neighbor, the Large Magellanic Cloud.”

"We Never See..."

“You know, we never see the world exactly as it is. We see it as we hope it will be or we fear it might be. And we spend our lives going through a sort of modified stages of grief about that realization. And we deny it, and then we argue with it, and we despair over it. But eventually - and this is my belief - that we come to see it, not as despairing, but as vitalizing. We never see the world exactly as it is because we are how the world is.”
- Maria Popova

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal 9/15/22"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal 9/15/22"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:

"The Grim Calculus of Debt"

"The Grim Calculus of Debt"
by Brian Maher

"An “empire of debt.” This is what our co-founders Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin labeled the United States… in a 2005 book bearing that very title. The United States is unquestionably an empire in debt - some $31.5 trillion - and mounting with each clock tick. Atop this $31.5 trillion debt floats a $25 trillion economy. Thus the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio runs to some 125%... the highest since 1946.

Sixty cents of each dollar Uncle Samuel spends, he borrows. The remaining 40 cents he collars in taxes. Contrast these figures with the guns-and-butter 1960s - before old Nixon banged the gold window shut. You will find the mathematics very nearly inverted. Seventy-five cents of each expended dollar the government hauled in through taxes. It borrowed the remaining 25 cents.

Borrowing to Consume, Not to Invest: Has our doddering uncle borrowed to invest in a productive American future? No he has not. He has borrowed largely to satisfy the consumptive needs of the moment. He is a squirrel that has failed to stash his acorns for winter. He has left little for the morrow. Consider the abovesaid 1960s...Merely 15 cents of each government-spent dollar went channeling toward “transfer payments” - that is, channeling from productive hands to nonproductive, consuming hands.

Today the figure approaches a productivity-sapping 50 cents of each dollar. Some 50% of Americans haul aboard at least one federal benefit. Some 63 million receive Social Security payments. Sixty million receive Medicare. Medicaid, 75 million. Five million American households claim housing subsidies. Some 40 million Americans take “supplemental nutritional assistance.” That is, food stamps. Only during the locust years of the Great Depression - from 1931–36 - did government dolings out exceed taxes coming in… as they do now.

Is it any wonder then that the nation sags and groans under $31.5 trillion of debt? We hazard it is not. Do we hector? Do we preach? Do we wag our finger? No we do not. We approach the business with the detached air of an accountant tackling the ledgers. We merely count beans. Yet a distressing calculus fetches our eye…

Rising Interest Rates Means Rising Debt Payments: We note that interest rates are on the increase. Today the 10-year Treasury note yields 3.46%. Two years ago the same 10-year Treasury note yielded 0.677%. And so interest payments on the debt are on the increase. They are devouring larger portions of the federal budget.

Mr. Jeff Deist, president of the Mises Institute: "In fiscal year 2020, at the height of COVID stimulus mania, Congress managed to spend nearly twice what the federal government raised in taxes. Yet in 2021, with Treasury debt piled sky-high and spilling over $30 trillion, Congress was able to service this gargantuan obligation with interest payments of less than $400 billion. The total interest expense of $392 billion for the year represented only about 6% of the roughly $6.8 trillion in federal outlays.

How is this possible? In short: very low interest rates. In fact, the average weighted rate across all outstanding Treasury debt in 2021 was well below 2%… even dramatically rising federal debt in recent years did not much hike Congress’ debt service burden."

And now? If Treasury rates continue to rise, and rise precipitously, the effects on congressional budgeting will be immediate and severe. Even if we laughably assume total federal debt remains static… interest rates of merely 2% or 3% will cause interest expense to rise considerably.

Average weighted rates of only 5% would cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion every year. Historically, average rates of 7% swell that number to more than $1.5 trillion. Rates of 10% — hardly unthinkable, given the Paul Volcker era of the late ’70s and early ’80s — would cause debt service to explode to over $2.3 trillion.

How Much Money Would Be Left Over? And as Mr. Deist notes: "Even a 5% average rate would render debt service the largest annual federal expenditure — greater than Social Security ($1.2 trillion), Medicare ($826 billion) and “defense” spending ($704 billion)."

The historical average, incidentally, comes in at 5.6%. Interest payments of 10% would swamp the entire federal budget. And the lovely illusion that deficits do not matter would crash against hard rocks of mathematical reality. But will interest rates maintain their increase… or will they come floating back downward?

Investor - and speculator - Nick Giambruno believes he has the answer: "Interest rates last peaked in 1981 at over 15%. Then, they fell for 39 years and bottomed in July 2020 at around 0.62%... Since the bottom in 2020, yields have gone up more than 5X. This reflects a significant shift. I think we are now at the very beginning of a new, long-term uptrend in interest rates…The 10-year Treasury is yielding around [3.46%]. That’s still far below the long-term historical average of approximately 5.6%."

That is, the scales will balance at or near the historical 5.6% average. And here this Giambruno fellow raises our hair: "I expect interest rates to reach new all-time highs in this new, long-term cycle. That would mean we’d see the 10-year Treasury yield north of 15%."

Kind heaven, no - 10-year yields north of 15%? Can you imagine it? We only hope that we are under the sod by that time… and roasting in the hell to which we are unquestionably fated.

The Government We Deserve: Yet one question must be answered: How did what was once the world’s greatest creditor nation sink so deeply into debt? It is easy to blame the politicians. But We the People must be as guilty as the politicians we elect. As we have asked before: Were the American people humbugged into so much debt? Or have we freely and knowingly put our names to the contract?

Two possibilities immediately suggest themselves…

1) The elected officials of the United States are colossal rogues who amassed today’s $31.5 trillion debt in full defiance of the thrifty American voter.
Or:
2) The $31.5 trillion debt reflects faithfully the desires of the American voter. He has gotten what he wants. At the very least, he accepts it in exchange for the perceived benefits it showers upon him.

Option 1 mocks our cherished democratic theories. Option 2 stands in full indictment of them. “Every nation gets the government it deserves,” said 18th-century French philosopher Joseph de Maistre. Alas, we must conclude the United States has gotten the government it deserves…"

The Daily "Near You?"

Georgetown, Maine, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"We Don't Have A Clue..."

“We don’t have a clue what’s really going down, we just kid ourselves that we’re in control of our lives while a paper’s thickness away things that would drive us mad if we thought about them for too long play with us, and move us around from room to room, and put us away at night when they’re tired, or bored.”
- Neil Gaiman

Chet Raymo, “Hanging On”

“Hanging On”
by Chet Raymo

“I change the desktop image on my laptop every now and then, generally when I come across a new image I like. In the last year or so you’ll remember that I wrote about Caravaggio’s “The Rest on the Flight Into Egypt” and Vermeer’s “The Milkmaid.” Live with an image for a while and it’s inevitable that you learn something from it. Here is the painting I’ve had as my desktop in recent weeks, Winslow Homer’s “Snap the Whip”, 1872, one of America’s sentimental favorites.

A simpler, more innocent time. Boys at recess, barefoot in the grass. Hand-me-down clothes. Autumn wildflowers, trees turning to red and gold. A fumbling Ulysses S. Grant is in the White House, the country is at peace after a horrendous civil war, and the Panic of 1873 and subsequent depression is still in the offing. Anyway, all of that political and economic stuff is a bit of a pother and far away. The sun is high in the sky, there’s an apple in the pocket, and only the oldest boy is thinking yet about the eternal mystery that is girls.

Yes, a lovely sentimental anecdote to the busy rancor of our own time, the incessant noise of the television, the attack ads, the news of war. How blissful to be twelve years old again, fit and healthy with the grass between your toes. Never mind that these boys had a life expectancy at birth of about 40 years, and that many of them had probably already lost a sibling or parent; when the sun’s out, and it’s recess, and you’ve got eight pals to play with…

But that’s not why I like the painting. I love the way the arc of the whip reflects the curve of the hill. The vanishing point of the red schoolhouse and three white shirts – everything converges on the two adults in the distance, the grown-up world that inevitably awaits.

Between the three boys who anchor the whip and the six who resist the centrifugal force that breaks the chain is the schoolhouse, the open door and window bracketing the anchor’s grip. Maybe it’s because I was a teacher all my life, but I like to think that the “message” of the painting has to do with education, with what goes on when the boys and girls are called back inside by the teacher’s bell – the glue that holds a civil society together when the whiplash of events threatens to tear us apart. Not indoctrination. Rather, reading, ‘riting and ‘rithmetic, the basic skills that enable an individual to explore the world creatively. History, geography and science, with their lessons of diversity, tolerance and respect for empirical fact. The ameliorating influence of poetry and art. And one of these boys, maybe the oldest in the center, will become a teacher himself, maintaining an unbroken chain of accumulated knowledge that anchors us to the past and propels us together into a mutually supportive and secure future.”

"The Motive..."

"All men seek happiness. This is without exception. Whatever different means they employ, they all tend to this end. The cause of some going to war, and of others avoiding it, is the same desire in both, attended with different views. The will never takes the least step but to this object. This is the motive of every action of every man, even of those who hang themselves."
- Blaise Pascal

The Poet: Mary Oliver, "What I Have Learned So Far"

"What I Have Learned So Far"

"Meditation is old and honorable, so why should I
not sit, every morning of my life, on the hillside,
looking into the shining world? Because, properly
attended to, delight, as well as havoc, is suggestion.
Can one be passionate about the just, the
ideal, the sublime, and the holy, and yet commit
to no labor in its cause? I don't think so.

All summations have a beginning, all effect has a
story, all kindness begins with the sown seed.
Thought buds toward radiance. The gospel of
light is the crossroads of- indolence, or action.
Be ignited, or be gone."

~ Mary Oliver

"How It Really Is"

 
Americans... such a kind, compassionate people!
And what about you, Good Citizen? How are you doing?

Yeah, I know...
“You go up to a man, and you say, “How are things going, Joe?” and he says, “Oh fine, fine… couldn’t be better.” And you look into his eyes, and you see things really couldn’t be much worse. When you get right down to it, everybody’s having a perfectly lousy time of it, and I mean everybody. And the hell of it is, nothing seems to help much.”
- Kurt Vonnegut

"A Top Russian Official Quoted The Book Of Revelation To Describe What Will Soon Happen To America"

"A Top Russian Official Quoted The Book Of 
Revelation To Describe What Will Soon Happen To America"
by Michael Snyder

"The Russians continue to threaten us with nuclear annihilation. Why are so few people in the western world alarmed by this? I think it is because our leaders are assuring everyone that the Russians are all talk and that the odds of a nuclear war actually happening are extremely low. Meanwhile, both sides just continue to take steps to escalate the war in Ukraine. We are engaged in an extremely bizarre game of “nuclear chicken”, and both sides truly believe that the other side will blink first. And so we continue to creep closer and closer to a cataclysmic nuclear conflict, and once the missiles start flying there will be no turning back.

I simply do not understand why our leaders are not taking Russian threats more seriously. The Russians warned that they would take military action in Ukraine if an agreement to avoid war could not be reached, and that is precisely what happened. And now the Russians are repeatedly threatening us with nuclear war. In fact, Dmitry Medvedev just warned that if the U.S. does not back down our “land will be on fire and the concrete will melt”…"If the West continues its “unrestrained pumping of the Kiev regime with the most dangerous types of weapons,” Russia’s military campaign will move to the next level, where “visible boundaries and potential predictability of actions by the parties to the conflict” will be erased and the conflict will take on a life of its own, as wars always do, Medvedev argued.

"And then the Western nations will not be able to sit in their clean homes, laughing at how they carefully weaken Russia by proxy. Everything will be on fire around them. Their people will harvest their grief in full. The land will be on fire and the concrete will melt,” Medvedev wrote, before citing a Bible verse from Revelations 9:18."

In case you are wondering, this is what Revelation 9:18 says…"A third of mankind was killed by these three plagues - by the fire and by the smoke and by the brimstone, which came out of their mouths."

Medvedev also addressed the fact that U.S. politicians don’t seem to be taking Russian threats very seriously…“Yet still the narrow-minded politicians and their stupid think tanks, thoughtfully twirling a glass of wine in their hands, talk about how they can deal with us without entering into a direct war. Dull idiots with a classical education,” Medvedev wrote."

When I read that statement, I immediately thought of National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. He is one of the chief warmongers in the Biden administration, but most Americans don’t even know who he is. Personally, I am shocked that someone like Sullivan can even get a job in Washington, but at this point he is one of the key architects of our foreign policy. There are times when Sullivan makes John Bolton look like a radical anti-war peace activist in comparison, and Biden considers his advice to be highly valuable. That is quite frightening, because if Sullivan has his way we are likely to end up in a nuclear war with Russia.

At this point, the Russians do not believe that they are fighting a war with just Ukraine. All over Russian television, there is talk about the vast numbers of “British and American soldiers” that are now on the front lines of the conflict…"Watching Russia’s channels over the last 24 hours reveals two trends. The first is that talk of “Ukrainian Nazis” has decreased - instead it’s now about “shared past and history” of two nations. Second, they simply cannot accept they’re losing to Ukrainians; instead, they talk about fighting a huge force of British and American soldiers, or as they often call them: “Anglo-Saxons”.

Officially, the U.S. and UK governments have not sent any troops to Ukraine. But somehow tens of thousands of highly trained U.S. and British fighters are now involved. Many of them are uploading videos of their exploits to social media, and this is something that even the Daily Mail is admitting…"In a compilation of footage uploaded to social media, soldiers with British accents can be heard speaking to one another while wearing blue armbands to identify themselves as Ukrainian forces. One clip appears to show soldiers moving ‘POWs’ through a compound, while others show soldiers hurling grenades, running to take cover, and climbing through windows."

Whether these troops were officially sent by the U.S. and UK governments doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the Russians now believe that they are fighting troops from NATO countries that have been armed with NATO equipment. If the Russians perceive that this is the big showdown with NATO, they may decide that it is better to go for the jugular sooner rather than later. Because the side that strikes first has the best chance of surviving a nuclear war.

In a scenario in which the Russians decide to strike first, they would move large numbers of their super silent “black hole” submarines into position just off our coastlines. This is something that I have warned my readers about over and over again. These submarines would simultaneously launch their nukes, and within just a couple of minutes a host of key strategic targets would be destroyed all over the country.

Our missile silos and our air bases would be among those strategic targets, but once his advisers finally got him out of bed the president would inevitably order a strike of our own. Unfortunately, Minuteman III missiles that went into service in the 1970s still form the backbone of our strategic nuclear arsenal, and Russia has the most advanced anti-missile systems on the entire planet. The Russian S-400, A-135 and S-500 anti-missile systems would likely intercept much of what we throw at them, but inevitably some targets would be hit. But overall, the Russians would hurt us a whole lot more than we hurt them, and they know this.

So why won’t we take the threats that they are making more seriously? Of course there are ultimately no “winners” in a nuclear war, and that is what western leaders are banking on. As I have discussed previously, studies have determined that only about 20 percent of the U.S. population would die immediately if there was a full-blown nuclear exchange with Russia. But the ensuing nuclear winter caused by such a conflict would result in billions of people starving to death worldwide.

So I am pleading with leaders on both sides of this war to find a peaceful way out of this mess while they still can. Unfortunately, both sides have become absolutely obsessed with “winning” the conflict in Ukraine, and it appears that it is just a matter of time before it goes nuclear."
A Must Read related article:


"This is Getting Crazier and Crazier"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 9/15/22:
"This is Getting Crazier and Crazier"
"People don’t realize what the possibly averted train strike would do to our Konomi. Most people think that just because they don’t ride on the train it doesn’t affect them. Everything gets delivered through freight trains and this would stop. We would have $2 billion a day in damages at a minimum."
Comments here:
Related:

"Massive Price Increases At Publix! This Is Ridiculous!"

Adventures with Danno, 9/15/22:
"Massive Price Increases At Publix! This Is Ridiculous!"
"In today's vlog we are at Publix, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products! "
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "SEC Now Warning Of Debt Market Liquidity Issues; Economy Cratering Faster"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/15/22:
"SEC Now Warning Of Debt Market Liquidity Issues;
Economy Cratering Faster"
Comments here:

"This Is What The Collapse Of Civilization Looks Like"

Full screen recommended.
Tucker Carlson, 9/14/22:
"This Is What The Collapse Of Civilization Looks Like"
Comments here:
Related:

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Greg Hunter, "Deep State Naked Running Through Streets"

"Deep State Naked Running Through Streets"
By ’s USAWatchddog.com

"Award-winning journalist Alex Newman, author of the popular books “Deep State” and “Crimes of the Educators,” says Deep State globalists are not happy with the progress of the “controlled demolition of all western societies.” They want their so-called “Great Reset,” but people are waking up at such a fast pace their propaganda is not working. Newman explains, “Censorship is the move that these Deep State people are making. They want to silence all dissent, all criticism, except dissent and criticism that furthers their narrative that furthers inflaming the division and furthers the civil war narrative. This is very, very dangerous. As my friend, Patrick Wood, the founder of “Citizens for Free Speech,” says, when they are able to silence our free speech, that’s when the killing starts. So, we should be very, very concerned about this.”

Are the Deep State’s destructive plans going all that well? Newman says, “They are in this do or die moment, and we have been here a little while. We are at the stage now where the agenda is out in the open. A few years ago, when we were saying they were going to be doing these things, we were called conspiracy theorists and extremists and whatever. Now, they are actually doing those things, and now they are saying it is dangerous and extreme not to approve of these things. So, now if you don’t agree with the ‘Great Reset’ or the Green New Deal or the Biden regime, they say you are dangerous. I think we are in the phase right now where they are basically running naked through the streets. Everybody can see them. So, it’s a very risky time for them. It’s a do or die moment for them if enough people wake up. If you look at the trend line people are waking up so rapidly that if this continues, they are going to be in major trouble. That’s why we are seeing the clampdown on free speech. 

The war on free speech shows how successful we have been and how unsuccessful they have been. If their propaganda was effective and they thought lying to us through CNN, NBC and ABC was good enough, they would not be worried about what people were saying on Facebook. They would not be worrying about what you were Tweeting out to your 10,000 or 30,000 followers. They would be confident and relaxed, and they would really not be all that concerned. The fact they are whipping themselves into a frenzy about all this ‘misinformation’ online shows you they are very, very concerned about the collapse of their narrative. 

You point out the real approval rate for Biden is 11% or 12%, and they recognize their agenda is not popular. They realize people don’t like this, and if people realize they are not the only ones that don’t like this and everyone does not like this, then they are in very big trouble.”

Newman says we are “fighting demonic spirits and not simply flesh and blood” as it says in the Bible. Newman contends one of the biggest failing narratives of the Deep State are the people who got the CV19 shots and are sick or dead. Newman says, “I think the truth on this is going to come out, and I think this is another reason we are in such a dangerous time. A lot of the people who lined up and got their shots are madder than a wet hen right now. They are wondering who is responsible for this? This is a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions, and that is what the data is showing now. We are seeing excess mortality numbers that are unprecedented. Nothing in human history has resulted in things like this. Millions of people are dying, and millions of people are being debilitated by this around the world and especially around the Western world. We are seeing massive numbers of infertility and miscarriages, and I think the worst is yet to come." There is much more in the 46 min. video interview.

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with hard hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the recent book “Deep State.”

"Be Ready For A September Stock Market Crash As People Believe That It Is Starting To Happen Again"

Full screen recommended.
"Be Ready For A September Stock Market Crash
 As People Believe That It Is Starting To Happen Again"
by Epic Economist

"Do you remember the panic waves that plunged Wall Street into chaos in September 2008? Well, several indicators are signaling that it’s happening all over again. And market strategists are saying that once selling starts to spiral out of control, it’s going to be nearly impossible to stop it. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial fell to the lowest level since June 2020, marking the seventh biggest single-day decline in history. The drop was actually larger than anything we witnessed back in 2008. It was fueled by a sudden shift in sentiment as investors got extremely disappointed by the monthly inflation report because it showed that the recent efforts to tame inflation growth aren’t working, and that means more rate hikes are coming. Major market players are alerting us that we haven’t hit bottom yet, and a much more dramatic stock market crash is about to occur.

Wall Street is in a very sour mood right now. Another mass selloff took place on Tuesday, and things are starting to look quite frightening. The Dow went on a free fall yesterday, and other indexes followed suit. In a single day, the Dow slid 1,276 points, losing 3.94% and closing at 31,104.97. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite actually performed even worse, plunging 4.32% and 5.16%, respectively.

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 recorded losses, with only five stocks finishing in positive territory. Tech stocks suffered the most, with Facebook-parent Meta skidding 9.4% and chip giant Nvidia shedding 9.5%. The sharp declines marked the worst day for stocks since the burst of the health crisis. Of course, a single bad day does not make a full-blown meltdown, but it might indicate that one is rapidly approaching.

The collapse was mostly driven by worries about inflation. Inflation figures for the month of August were so much worse than expected that at this point traders see a one-in-five chance for a full percentage point next week. That would be quadruple the usual move, and no one in the futures market was predicting such a hike just a day earlier.

According to the CME Group, “traders now see a better than 60% likelihood the Fed will pull its federal funds rate all the way up to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. A day earlier, they saw less than a 17% chance of such a high rate.” Furthermore, veteran investor and GMO co-founder, Jeremy Grantham, who cautioned about an epic "superbubble" across stocks, bonds, and housing, repeated his warning of an impending burst in a research note released this week. Grantham dismissed the latest rebound in stocks as a brief reprieve, arguing that previous superbubbles have always been followed by market declines of at least 50%. "Each cycle is different and unique - but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come," he added.

Another remarkable warning came from billionaire John Catsimatidis, who said soaring interest rates will cause more harm than good, and eventually, they’ll push financial markets and the economy other the edge, sparking another global financial meltdown. In an interview with Fox Business, Catsimatidis urged the Fed to stop monetary tightening. “So I call upon the Federal Reserve…If we keep raising interest rates, we’re going to destroy the rest of the country. Somebody has to stand up and say it doesn’t have to happen. And they’re going to destroy the rest of the country. And there is a recession, it could turn into a depression,” he said.

The outlook never looked so gloomy. Risks are growing and investors can feel it. We encourage you to brace yourself for a catastrophic stock market crash because that is precisely what each and every piece of evidence is telling us to do."
Comments here:

“Oh My…They’re Lying. Prepare For Total Chaos”

Canadian Prepper, 9/14/22:
“Oh My…They’re Lying. Prepare For Total Chaos”
“People need to accept reality and stop deluding themselves.”
Comments here: