Wednesday, June 15, 2022

"Wherein I Use Greek Mythology To Show How Screwed We Are"

"Wherein I Use Greek Mythology To Show How Screwed We Are"
by John Wilder

"We’ve reached the Scylla and Charybdis stage of our economy. Scylla was, in Greek mythology, a six-headed monster that was probably less scary than the average half-dozen Congresscritters, and certainly less dangerous. Charybdis was a whirlpool that sucked inside everything that got close to it three times a day, so it was pretty much exactly like Kamala Harris.

The idea is that if you’re between Scylla and Charybdis, life is on the edge because there are dangers on either side. When Odysseus tried to sneak between the two, he lost six crewmembers, one to each head of Scylla. Thankfully they didn’t go too close to Charybdis, since Kamala has a mean-looking canker sore, and some gifts last forever. Trying to thread the fine line between Scylla and Charybdis: that’s where our economy is now.

As inflation rages through the system, every minute that we have an interest rate well below the rate of inflation, inflation is being fed. To quote Joe Biden from January 24, 2022, “It’s a great asset – more inflation. What a stupid son of a bitch.” You can tell he’s excited to Build Back Better!

Oddly, it’s not inflation in everything. Some items are starting to deflate now. Houses, for instance. The price of a house is tied to the interest rate – the more interest wrapped into a monthly payment, the fewer the number of buyers that can afford or qualify for a loan. And in Biden’s America® people have to qualify for more important things, like a Quarter Pounder™ or a tank of gas.

But back to home loans: fewer people qualify? Less demand. Less demand? Lower home prices. When we moved to Modern Mayberry in the middle of the Great Recession, some houses had been on the market for longer than 350 days. These were decent houses, but there just wasn’t any demand. Recently, as people began to take my advice and flee the cities, houses disappeared off the market in days here in Modern Mayberry. With all the city folk moving in, at least I know what a hipster weighs: an Instagram®.

Now? Interest rates for mortgages are going up, so demand for houses will be going down. Eventually, the market for houses will go back to where it was when I got here. That’s okay, I never expected to walk away from Stately Wilder Mansion with a single dime of profit. For me, a house is where I live, not an investment.

So, interest rates up, housing prices down. Simple. Also, interest rates up, stock prices down. For the last decade, stocks have been just about the only game for people who were trying to keep up with inflation. This was a continual pressure upwards on stocks. Now as interest rates go up, there are other options.

Traditionally, there was (this was something I read in an article a long time ago) a formula showing the value of a stock in relation to the interest rate: Maximum P/E=20-Prime Rate. That meant, with an interest rate of 0%, a stock was at fair value with a Price to Earnings ratio of 20. Likewise, if the interest rate was 10%, the fair market P/E would be about 10.

Obviously, it’s such a one-dimensional analysis that it was made back when “digital computing” meant counting on your fingers. There’s no way I’d suggest anyone use it to pick stocks (nor would I suggest taking the advice of an Internet humorist on any investment advice no matter how witty, charming, and handsome he might be), but it does show how the relationship between interest rates and stock prices and earnings was thought about once upon a time. But it summarizes the same idea – interest rates up, stocks down. Heck, it even led me to a never-fail way to manipulate individual stocks: if I buy a stock, it goes down.

There are other impacts, too. For instance, it makes debt harder to pay back for people around the planet. If Egypt owes money to ChaseAmericanFargo™ Bank and the interest rate is variable, that means that Egypt will have to start selling items to pay back New York, or London, or Beijing. Heck, the British would already have the Pyramids, but they wouldn’t fit in the British Museum

More money to the banking centers? Less money for chow for the Egyptians. We saw this exact scenario play out in the Arab Spring in 2012. Expensive stuff caused people to go hungry and then hungry people with no hope do what they always do when they can’t watch Netflix™ and buy Twinkies©.

They swap out the government. The new boss looks a lot like the old boss in Egypt, and it’s exactly the same boss as it was in Syria. Some things don’t change. If it’s bad enough, it also craters the economies in South America and, even Canada might have its assets frozen. Or, more frozen.

But when the interest rates go up, it’s not just the government in Egypt that gets squeezed. The current debt in the United States is $30.5 trillion. The total US debt, including personal debt, student loans, credit cards, and I.O.U.s to me from that one guy that owes me $20 is about $91 trillion. (All numbers from usdebtclock.org)

When the interest rates go up, the payments on interest go up. That means less money available for everything else. When last I looked, the mandatory payments the Federal government were as much as or more than the amount of money that they took in. That means that printing more money is now the only way the system can work. It’s like having a tobacco cessation class with a two-cigar minimum.

That leads to the difficult bit – the hall of mirrors. If we don’t raise interest rates, and raise them quickly and raise them high enough, inflation will devastate the economy. If we do raise them, interest payments will freeze the economy and dry up all the PEZ®, pantyhose, and elephant rides the government buys daily. We are in a classic trap, but it is a trap entirely devised by the Fed® and the politicians working long-term problems on short-term incentives.

By attempting to push back the moment of financial reckoning by any means possible, we’ve created a failure that is much, much larger. If we would have let financial companies fail in 2000 and 2008, and fixed the structural problems with Medicare, perhaps, just perhaps we wouldn’t be here today.

But we are. How bad are things? Again, people have been trying to gauge when things in the stock market are out of whack – Gregory Mannarino came up with a market risk index that he called the Mannarino Market Risk Index, which was modified by Nobody Special Finance into the Modified Mannarino Market Risk Index. You can watch the video on what makes it up here (LINK). It’s only twelve minutes, and it’s pretty simple. The MMMRI is simple, but it’s still quite a bit more sophisticated than the 20=P/E-Interest rate formula from back in the Stone Age. The summary is of selected past MMMRIs is:
You can find tracking information on MMMRI here (LINK) on Mannarino’s website. Yup. MMMRI is screaming loudly that the stock market is really, really messed up.  But you knew that.  Things are broken, and they’re breaking faster as things go downhill.  So, whatever you do, don’t buy canned goods and storage food and precious metals and PEZ® and ammo.  Nope.

I’m sure that the team of Biden and Harris along with Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, (who had no idea that inflation was even a problem) or Jennifer Granholm, Energy Secretary, (who said that high gas prices are “a very compelling case” to buy an electric car) will be here to help us charter a safe course between Scylla and Charybdis. Oh, wait, Biden and Harris are Scylla and Charybdis."

"Any Fool Can Know..."

Gregory Mannarino, "The FED Overnight Just Bought A Boatload Of Debt, The ECB Will Follow"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/15/22:
"The FED Overnight Just Bought A 
Boatload Of Debt, The ECB Will Follow"

MMMRI - Modified Mannarino Market Risk Indicator
You can find tracking information on MMMRI
 here (LINK) on Mannarino’s website.

"Remember 2008? Another Terrifying Housing Crash Is Now In Progress"

"Remember 2008?
Another Terrifying Housing Crash Is Now In Progress"
by Michael Snyder

"It is often said that those that refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. More than a decade ago, the Federal Reserve created the most epic housing bubble in American history and everyone was happy until 2008 came along. The economy slowed down, home prices crashed and the ensuing chaos on Wall Street spawned an endless series of movies, television specials and documentaries. But instead of learning our lessons, we did it again. The Federal Reserve created an even larger housing bubble, and I have been relentlessly warning that it would inevitably burst. Now home sales have fallen for six months in a row and prices are crashing again. In fact, in some parts of the country we have already seen prices plunge by as much as 20 percent

"Property prices have fallen by up to 20 percent across parts of the US as buyers shun the market amid ‘Bidenflation’ and spiking interest rates. Asking prices have plummeted by up to $400,000 in wealthy areas while poorer neighborhoods have seen house values nosedive by as much as $115,000."

Do you remember last time around when millions of homeowners ended up “underwater” on their mortgages? If we continue on this current trajectory, it is going to happen again.

Last year at this time, the housing market was extremely hot, but now a new report from Redfin is telling us that things have dramatically changed…"A May study by Redfin found that about 19 percent of sellers dropped the prices on their homes in a four week period between April and May. The outlet said that the report indicated an end to the country’s pandemic-era housing boom. Their report found that Google searches for ‘homes for sale’ were down 13 percent from the same time last year. It also found that requests for home tours were down 12 percent, and that mortgage applications dropped 16 percent from a year prior. And the higher mortgage rates go, the worse things are going to get."

Unfortunately, mortgage rates are spiking at a rate that is absolutely breathtaking this month…"Mortgage rates jumped sharply this week, as fears of a potentially more aggressive rate hike from the Federal Reserve upset financial markets. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. That followed a 33 basis point jump Monday. The rate was 5.55% one week ago."

The last time we saw mortgage rates this high was during the last housing crash. Unfortunately, they are only going to go higher because the Federal Reserve wants interest rates throughout our economy to rise in order to fight inflation. But as I have warned repeatedly in recent months, a high rate environment is going to absolutely eviscerate the housing market. Already, higher rates have had a colossal impact on home affordability

"Higher home prices and rates have crushed home affordability. For instance, on a $400,000 home, with a 20% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment went from $1,399 at the start of January to $1,976 today, a difference of $577. That does not include homeowners insurance nor property taxes. It also does not include the fact that the home is about 20% more expensive than it was a year ago. Vast multitudes of potential home buyers will be forced out of the market until home prices comes down dramatically.

If you are one of those people, you could try to rent a place while you wait, but apartment rents are 15 percent higher than they were a year ago…"A new report from Redfin shows that nationally listed rents for available apartments rose 15% from a year ago. And the median listed rent for an available apartment rose above $2,000 a month for the first time. Rents are up more than 30% in Austin, Seattle, and Cincinnati. In Los Angeles the median asking rent is $3,400. Even in formerly affordable cities such as Nashville it’s now $2,140, up 32% from last year."

I am so thankful that Redfin gives us these numbers, but it turns out that Redfin is in deep trouble too. In fact, Redfin just announced that they will be laying off 8 percent of their workers…"Real estate firms Redfin and Compass are laying off workers, as mortgage rates rise sharply and home sales drop. In filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Compass announced a 10% cut to its workforce, and Redfin announced an 8% cut. Shares of both companies fell Tuesday. Redfin’s stock touched a new 52-week low."

So many of the exact same things that we witnessed back in 2008 are happening again. The economy is slowing down. Big corporations are starting to lay off workers. Home prices are starting to collapse. And there is a tremendous amount of pessimism about what is ahead. In fact, one new survey has found that small business owners are “feeling their gloomiest in nearly five decades”…

"Small business owners in America are feeling their gloomiest in nearly five decades, a survey released Tuesday morning showed. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its gauge of businesses expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell to the worst reading in the 48-year history of the survey."

When things got really bad in 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve responded by pushing interest rates all the way to the floor, and that certainly helped. But now the Federal Reserve doesn’t have that option. In fact, the Federal Reserve seems quite determined to dramatically raise rates in a desperate attempt to fight the inflation monster that they had a major role in helping to create. And the higher that rates go, the worse things will get for the housing market and for the economy as a whole.

If we would have learned some lessons from the last crisis, all of this could have been avoided. But instead we are now moving into a future which is going to be extraordinarily painful. At this point, the Federal Reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they don’t raise rates, inflation will continue to spiral out of control. But if they do raise rates, they will crush the housing market and make the coming recession far worse.

For years, they assured all of us that they had everything under control and that they knew exactly what they were doing. Now everyone can see the truth, but unfortunately it is too late to reverse course."

"Economic Market Snapshot 6/15/22"

Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"Economic Market Snapshot 6/15/22"
Updated as available.
Latest Market Analysis, Updated 6/15/22
Read 'em and weep...
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
June 14th to June 15th
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words.
And now... The End Game...

"It'll Do..."

Deputy Wendell: "It's a mess, ain't it Sheriff?"
Sheriff Ed Tom Bell: "Well, if it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here."
Apologies to "No Country For Old Men"

Oh, the mess is here alright...and you ain't seen nothin' yet...
Brace for impact.

"How It Really Is"

 

Greg Hunter, "Game Over, They’re Pulling the Plug"

"Game Over, They’re Pulling the Plug"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter said in early April that he thought we did not have much time until the financial meltdown started. He gave it 60 days. Two months later, the meltdown started in earnest right on time. The world is at debt levels never seen before, and Holter contends rising interest rates are the key driver here and now. Holter explains, “Interest rates are the key to the whole collapse. Mortgage rates, as of right now, are about 6.15%. Mortgage rates started the year just over 3%. In the fourth quarter of last year, we had mortgage rates as low as 2.75%. What that tells you is if you qualified for a $1 million mortgage at the end of last year, you only qualify for a $500,000 mortgage now. If you are a property owner, that means the pool of potential buyers is far less than 6 months ago, simply because interest rates have basically doubled. Holter also says that means property values are dramatically cut.

Interest rates have been on a more than 40-year downward trend since Fed Head Paul Volker raised a key rate to 20% in the early 1980’s. Holter points out, “We basically just went through a 40-year bull market on bonds where interest rates did nothing but go downward for 40 years. That 40-year trend is now broken, and rates are headed higher. It just so happens the system is more indebted than it has ever been on any ratio or any basis you want to look at. What I am getting at is these higher interest rates are blowing up the debt bubble.”

Don’t expect the Fed to come in and save the day like it did in the last financial meltdown back in 2008 and 2009. The Fed bailed out the economy when it started printing money like crazy and never stopped. Holter says, “The bottom line is the world’s financial system and, thus, real economies have been on life support since 2008. What people should understand is when the Fed says they are going to raise interest rates and they are going to shrink their balance sheet, that says they are pulling the plug out of the wall. They are taking the system off life support. The bottom line is the system cannot live without life support. The Ponzi scheme cannot continue without new capital coming into the system. They are pulling the plug is what they are doing.... It’s game over.”

Holter also talks about gold and silver and why you should hold them in hand. Holter thinks a “Mad Max” scenario is a real possibility and says we have not seen the peak on inflation. There is a lot more in the 44-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with 
financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter of JSMineset.com.

"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 6/15/22:
"Strange Prices At Sam's Club! This is Crazy!"
"In today's vlog we are at Sam's Club, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
View comments here:
Related:
"The Food Situation Is Worse Than You Think"
 (And They Aren’t Telling You)
by notausername86

"Yesterday I went to pick up a couple of things to make for dinner, from a major national chain store. This store, is known for its “USDA prime beef” and they advertise it, all over the place. It’s their entire selling point of the store. So, as I’m cruising the meat section, being blown away at the prices of things (steaks that would have been 7.99 lb last year are 12.99 a lb. Hamburger that was 5.00 a lb last year is now 9.00 a lb, etc etc). But then I noticed something very interesting. The entire meat section, not a single cut was graded USDA prime. In fact, every cut of beef (that was packaged) was “USDA choice”.

Now for those of you who don’t know, there are different “grades” of meat. Prime being “the best” (and there are different grades of prime) followed up by choice, than select. The lower you go, the “cheaper” the cut of meat is.

So here is the thing, what this means is that the cuts of meat that are now running about 4 or 5 dollars more a lb, are of a lessor quality than the meat you were probably buying last year. This means that in reality, the cost of meat has gone up significantly more than more people realize. That USDA prime sirloin that you bought for 7.99 /lb last year? Yeah, that’s not going for 12.99 lb, it’s more like 22.00 a lb. They just aren’t even stocking it (because people couldn’t afford it).

Another interesting note, is that the meat in the “butchers case” had a very interesting sticker on it. It said and I quote “Imported. Not USDA graded”. This is the first time I’ve ever actually seen a store sell imported, non USDA graded meat in the butchers case, as usually these are your better, more expensive cuts of meat. I think the situation is worse than we think folks. If any butchers or meat market employees are out there, please chime in."

Canadian Prepper, "The Pope Just Declared WW3 (Seriously) and Other INSANE News"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 6/14/22:
"The Pope Just Declared WW3 (Seriously) and Other INSANE News"
"Cyberattack on LNG plant? Ukr attacks Russian village, North Korean nuclear test, markets could fall 80%!!! War predicted to go on for at least 2 years, shortages abound, the Pope officiates "WW3" for his followers, historic droughts and floods, massive fertilizer shortage..".

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Gerald Celente, “A Fish Rots From The Head Down”

Full screen recommended,
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal,
“A Fish Rots From The Head Down”

"Shipping Crisis Pushes Supply Chain Disruptions To Skyrocket By 450% As Panic Sweep Across Ports"

Full screen recommended.
"Shipping Crisis Pushes Supply Chain Disruptions
 To Skyrocket By 450% As Panic Sweep Across Ports"
by Epic Economist

"The supply chain crisis is seeming like a never-ending nightmare that just keeps disrupting business and port operations and sending consumer prices to sky-highs. Chokepoints continue to emerge all across the system, and by now, nearly 70% of U.S. consumers believe that empty shelves have become the new normal. Meanwhile, Over 300 containerships are still stranded at sea, and the worsening labor shortage at key ports is threatening to result in a traffic jam that's unlike anything we’ve ever seen. On top of that, fuel costs are pushing freight rates to explode, and if you think you’ve already seen the worst of price increases at your local store, buckle up because they’re about to shoot all the way into the stratosphere.

One thing everyone can agree on at this point is that supply chains are terminally broken. In the U.S., one of the main reasons for that breakdown is the acute shortage of supply chain workers. Today, there are 5.5 million more job openings than there are workers available to fill them, according to the Labor Department. And as contract negotiations between longshoremen and operators of the nation’s largest ports remain adrift, U.S. companies are afraid of a repeat of last summer’s supply-chain chaos, which resulted in nationwide shortages and unprecedented price hikes.

The contract between over 22,000 dockworkers at 29 ports along the West Coast and the Pacific Maritime Association, composed of ocean carriers and port operators, expires at the end of this month. And up until now, both parties haven’t reached an agreement. If a deal isn’t closed within the next two weeks, millions of companies will be at risk of work stoppages and production slowdowns, just as happened during previous negotiations. The timing couldn’t be worse: the impasse comes as U.S. businesses are bracing for a surge in shipments from China as the world’s second-largest economy started sending massive loads of cargo all at once to the U.S. coast after lifting lockdown restrictions last month.

This is the perfect recipe for disaster, and it means we’re going to see a new wave of disruptions sparking chaos at our ports in a few weeks. That’s a quite alarming outlook, especially considering that supply chain disruptions skyrocketed over 400% over the past few years. According to data collected from Statista, in 2019, U.S. companies reported 2,568 supply chain disruptions from January to December. Back then, 56% of companies reported facing bottlenecks at some point in 2019. By 2021, that number climbed to shocking 11,642 disruptions, an increase of over 453,3%, which led 88% of companies to report supply chain snarls.

By now, every new survey, study, or report shows that conditions are still getting worse in the system. At the same time, everything is becoming more expensive. On the other side of the ocean, 344 are still waiting off the coast of China, marking a 34% increase over the past month. It currently takes 74 days longer to get goods from a Chinese warehouse to a U.S. warehouse, a route that used to take 37 days, according to RBC’s report.

Americans are already absolutely terrified about the rising cost of living. In fact, 52% of Americans said that the biggest issue facing the country was rising prices, according to a new FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll. Moreover, more and more U.S. consumers are seeing empty shelves as the new normal. According to a recent survey by SAP, 67% of Americans think product shortages are a “new normal” and 74% said shortages will continue to dominate supply chain conversation this year and into next. At least 77% of Americans reported food shortages this year, 52% reported shortages of personal care items, and 32% reported shortages of prescription medications.

This crazy economic environment is about to get even crazier as we head into peak shipping season. Shortages, even higher consumer prices and a whole lot of turbulence are now looming on the horizon. Get prepared for these challenges while you still can because supply chain disruptions will start to spread at a breathtaking speed before you even notice, and what we experienced in previous years will be nothing compared to the disorder that is ahead."

"I Got Bad News - It's About To Get Much Worse"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 6/14//22:
"I Got Bad News - It's About To Get Much Worse, 
Real Estate Market Will Be Pummeled Worse Than 2008"
Related:
"The Market Is 'On The Edge Of A Huge Collapse'"
"Some very smart people who know more than I do speak in terms of an 80% drop in the S&P and the Dow. For the last 30 years I have felt that eventually the Dow and gold will reach a one to one or two to one ratio. Currently that ratio is 18 to 1 meaning that 18 ounces of gold will buy the Dow. Arguably, that speaks to massively overvalued stocks and stupidly undervalued gold. And yes, it has happened before, twice in fact.”
- Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals
Full article here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Critical Updates: Now Either I Win Big Or Go Down In Flames"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 6/14/22:
"Critical Updates: Now Either I Win Big Or Go Down In Flames"

Musical Interlude: Liquid Mind, "Dream Ten"

Liquid Mind, "Dream Ten"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Here in the Milky Way galaxy we have astronomical front row seats as M81 and M82 face-off, a mere 12 million light-years away. Locked in a gravitational struggle for the past billion years or so, the two bright galaxies are captured in this deep telescopic snapshot, constructed from 25 hours of image data.
Their most recent close encounter likely resulted in the enhanced spiral arms of M81 (left) and violent star forming regions in M82 so energetic the galaxy glows in X-rays. After repeated passes, in a few billion years only one galaxy will remain. From our perspective, this cosmic moment is seen through a foreground veil of the Milky Way's stars and clouds of dust. Faintly reflecting the foreground starlight, the pervasive dust clouds are relatively unexplored galactic cirrus, or integrated flux nebulae, only a few hundred light-years above the plane of the Milky Way.”
"Dwell on the beauty of life.
Watch the stars, and see yourself running with them."
- Marcus Aurelius

Kahlil Gibran, “The Farewell”

“The Farewell”

“Farewell to you and the youth I have spent with you.
It was but yesterday we met in a dream.
You have sung to me in my aloneness,
and I of your longings have built a tower in the sky.
But now our sleep has fled and our dream is over,
and it is no longer dawn.
The noontide is upon us and our half waking has turned to fuller day,
and we must part.
If in the twilight of memory we should meet once more,
we shall speak again together and you shall sing to me a deeper song.
And if our hands should meet in another dream
we shall build another tower in the sky.”

- Kahlil Gibran, “The Prophet”

"No Smooth Road..."

"Life has no smooth road for any of us; and in the bracing atmosphere
of a high aim the very roughness stimulates the climber to steadier steps,
till the legend, over steep ways to the stars, fulfills itself."
- W. C. Doane

Bill Bonner, "Time to Panic?"

"Time to Panic?"
What to do as stocks plummet... crypto tanks...
 and the economy hits the skids...
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "Our subject is the “Decision of the Century.” Which way will the feds go? Will they stop inflation? Or let ‘er rip? We think we know the answer. But let’s not rush to judgment. This will probably be the most important decision the feds (including the Fed) ever make. And our educated hunch about which way it will go is probably our most important guess too.

If you think the feds will really stick with their ‘tightening’ program… you should panic now. Sell stocks, bonds, collectibles, the house, the kids – everything. They’ll all soon be available at much lower prices. But be ready to buy back in when the bottom is reached. Maybe in 6 months. Maybe 24. Maybe 50.

But if the feds flinch and begin another loosening, stimulating cycle… well… you’ll have more time. Prices will go up… in nominal terms, but down in real, inflation-adjusted value. It will be confusing. Ambiguous. The bottom won’t come for maybe 10 years… maybe 20. And be sure to renew your passport. When the end comes, it will be a horror show of poverty, hunger, chaos, corruption and revolution.

“Festina Lente”: So, let’s hasten to make our call slowly… carefully, after much prayer, meditation… and heavy drinking. We will race along… trying to connect the dots… as if our financial lives depended on it – which they do. But before taking action, we’ll hesitate… and reconsider.

“Emperor Augustus told his commanders to ‘festina lente’… or ‘hasten slowly,’” began our favorite fund manager, Chris Mayer, last week. The setting was the gracious old mansion, Woodlock House, near Waterford, Ireland, which serves as our overseas business headquarters. The coffee had been served. Introductions had been made. We sat in plush chairs waiting for hard facts. Chris took center stage; he was going to explain why the fund was down and what he was going to do about it.

What would he say, we wondered? We have all lost money. Would other investors be worried? Would they be mad? But the group was as genteel and relaxed as the setting. We have all been around the block. We’re grown ups. We don’t cry in public.

Chris noted that there is always a tendency for investors to panic, especially when things are going very badly. If so, this would be a good time to do it. Never in our 50-year career have we seen such a gloomy set-up as this.

Back in the 1970s, the inflation numbers were worse. But John Williams at ShadowStats still calculates the rate the same way they did back then; he gets 13.5% for today’s inflation – almost exactly what it was in 1979. But in 1979, conditions were much different. The beer from the last party had already gone flat. Stocks had hit a peak in 1968. By 1979, the froth was gone; adjusted for 11 years of inflation, they were already near the very bottom of their range. They would not go much lower, no matter how high the Fed raised its lending rate.

Cresting Mt. Debtmore: Today’s stocks are coming off an all time high. So far, they have lost about 15% of their value – which leaves another 30% to 40% more to go. And the federal debt in 1979 was still under $1 trillion… less than a third of GDP. Now it has crested $30 trillion… which is about 130% of GDP.

And here’s the latest. As expected… housing prices are rolling over. Bloomberg: "The US and European real estate markets are experiencing a downwards shift in prices as the buyers fall away, according to the global chief investment officer of Hines, one of the largest closely held real estate investors in the world. Prices have fallen by about 5% to 10% compared to a year earlier in some areas, according to David L. Steinbach, with Europe following a trajectory set in the US. “I think we’re in for a rough few months,” he said. “This year is going to be choppy water."

Meanwhile, stocks are getting hammered. “Markets plunge amid fears of sharply higher interest rates,” say PBS Newshour. Yesterday, the Dow fell nearly 900 points. And it’s the worst year for bonds in history – with a 12.8% loss for the US 10-Year Treasury. As for a traditional portfolio – 60% S&P 500 stocks, 40% US Treasury bonds – it’s already lost 15% of its value. Not since 1937 has it done so badly.

Readings of consumer sentiment have never been lower – ever. Or at least not since the University of Michigan began tracking it in 1952. Most people don’t own many stocks or bonds. What they care about is how much they earn each week and what they can buy with it. And for the last 63 weeks they’ve been getting poorer as wage hikes lag consumer price increases.

Rough Saylorin’: And the foam is coming off the foamiest part of the market, too. Here’s Bloomberg: "Bored Ape NFTs Face Steep Declines in Broad Cryptoasset Rout." "The NFT Index is down 23%. Bitcoin is at an 18-month low. The market cap of Bored Ape Yacht Club fell 47% in the past week. And some of the fringiest crypto assets have been blown away completely. The price for Luna, for example, is now so microscopically low that you could add or subtract zeros and no one would notice."

And poor Michael Saylor. A couple years ago, the MicroStrategy jefe had a very bad idea – to use the company as a proxy for bitcoin. He used stockholders’ money to buy BTC. Then, as crypto prices rose, he borrowed millions more to buy more. This looked like a winning strategy for awhile. People could easily buy his stock. Then, they’d ‘own’ bitcoin without having to remember passwords or key codes. At its peak, in February 2021, his stock was selling for over $1,300.

Alas, the froth on that heady brew disappeared too. As the price of bitcoin fell, Saylor’s coins were underwater. How would he repay lenders, investors asked themselves. The stock lost nearly a quarter of its value over the weekend and is now trading at $150… a loss of nearly 90%. More to come…"

Canadian Prepper, "If I Go Missing...This is Why"

Canadian Prepper, 6/14/22:
"If I Go Missing...This is Why"
"A new bill is being passed in Canada which provides the government with sweeping powers to regulate social media, this is very scary considering the nature of the times we are in."

The Daily "Near You?"

Bulverde, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Life..."

"Life is not what you see, but what you've projected.
It's not what you've felt, but what you've decided.
It's not what you've experienced, but how you've remembered it.
It's not what you've forged, but what you've allowed.
And it's not who's appeared, but who you've summoned.
And this should serve you well until you find what you already have."
- The Universe

"Reality is what we take to be true.
What we take to be true is what we believe.
What we believe is based upon our perceptions.
What we perceive depends upon what we look for.
What we look for depends upon what we think.
What we think depends upon what we perceive.
What we perceive determines what we believe.
What we believe determines what we take to be true.
What we take to be true is our reality.
- Gary Zukav

"The Bankers Versus Mass Depopulation"

"The Bankers Versus Mass Depopulation"
The Bankers Plus India and China versus the Malthusians -
 a Blockbuster Conflict coming soon to Planet Earth.
by BOOM

"There are suggestions of a mass depopulation program being used against many nations. Deaths from All Causes appear to be rising in the younger age groups 15 years - 60 years and many insurance companies have already warned us of this, especially increasing in the last quarter of 2021. We already have a name for this phenomenon - Sudden Adult Death Syndrome SADS. There now appears to be a growing epidemic of sudden death in the previously healthy, even in out top athletes and football players.

The theory is that Covid is an engineered, man made bioweapon deliberately released to infect the planet and to reduce its population dramatically. Some also suggest that the Covid leaky vaccines using mRNA genetic technology and viral vector genetic technology have been designed to accelerate and add to this process.

Thomas Robert Malthus was an English scholar and influential economist in the late 18th century. He wrote a book in 1798 titled "An Essay on the Principle of Population". In it, he observed that an increase in a nation's food production improved the well-being of the population, but the improvement was always temporary because it led to population growth. Taken to its extreme, the followers of Malthus - called Malthusians - predict that the Earth's resources are limited and therefore cannot support endless growth. Thus a certain maximum level of population must exist. They believe that the total population must therefore be controlled below that level.

If such a deliberate global mass depopulation program is occurring, presumably driven by modern day Malthusians, then BOOM predicts that it must eventually come into a severe, direct conflict with the commercial banking sector of all nations and then the central banks. Why? Because banking depends upon the continual renewal and expansion of its loan books in aggregate. And if such renewal of loans and growth in loans is threatened by demographic contraction, then the banks will be faced with shrinking loan books and falling revenues. And if the available pool of borrowers shrinks, the banks will eventually become desperate and reckless in issuing loans. The insolvency of banks would then threaten as sure as night follows day.

For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that the mass depopulation hypothesis is correct. Current total global population is estimated to be almost 8 Billion. Some hypotheses imagine a target population of half that number for sustainability to occur. But others suggest a figure as low as 500 Million.

The Georgia Guidestones are a mysterious granite monument erected in 1980 in Elbert County, Georgia, in the United States. A set of ten guidelines is inscribed on the structure in eight modern languages and a shorter message is inscribed at the top of the structure in four ancient language scripts. One slab stands in the center, with four arranged around it. A capstone lies on top of the five slabs, which are astronomically aligned. An additional stone tablet, which is set in the ground a short distance to the west of the structure, provides some notes on the history and purpose of the Guidestones. The structure is sometimes referred to as an "American Stonehenge". The anonymity of the Guidestones' authors and their apparent advocacy of population control, eugenics, and internationalism have made them an object of controversy and conspiracy theories for more than 40 years.

There is a set of ten guidelines or principles engraved on the Georgia Guidestones in eight different languages, one language on each face of the four large upright stones. Moving clockwise around the structure from due north, these languages are: English, Spanish, Swahili, Hindi, Hebrew, Arabic, Traditional Chinese, and Russian.

Guideline Number 1 is to maintain humanity under 500 Million population in perpetual balance with nature. Another guideline is to "guide reproduction wisely - improving fitness and diversity". It is all very Utopian. This all sounds hard to believe. Most people have never heard of the Georgia Guidestones but the details are easily found on any search engine."

Please view this complete article here:
BOOM seeks out the very best information from authoritative sources and strives for consistency in its quality and trustworthiness. In evidence of this, BOOM has developed a loyal readership which includes many of the world’s most senior economists, central bankers, fund managers and academics. We strive to always have good relationships with our readers. If you want a real edge in understanding the complex world of finance and economics, subscribe to BOOM as a Follower on LinkedIn or as a Subscriber (Free) to the BOOM Newspaper at http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/#/
Freely download "An Essay on the Principle of Population",
by Thomas Robert Malthus, here:

"It's The Way...

"It's not the load that breaks you down, it's the way you carry it."
- Lena Horne

"Central Banks Are Racing To Crash the Economy"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 6/14/22:
"Central Banks Are Racing To Crash the Economy"
"The Central Banks are racing to finish the economy off. Their actions and inaction have done serious harm. Who will break first? Where will gas, food and mortgage prices end up at? Will everything continue to rise?"

"A Nightmare On Wall Street"

"A Nightmare On Wall Street"
by Michael Snyder

"This is bad. This is really, really bad. Investors loved the ride up, but now the Federal Reserve is helping to destroy the bubble that it once so eagerly created, and trillions of dollars in paper wealth is being wiped out in the process. Unfortunately, our system is not really designed to handle this sort of carnage. So many in the financial world live right on the edge, and when things go really, really bad the dominoes can start falling at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking. We witnessed this back in 2008, and it could soon happen again.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 880 points, and many were deeply concerned about what Monday would bring. Well, the pessimists turned out to be correct, because the Dow plunged another 876 points on Monday. Overall, the Dow is now down approximately 17 percent from its record high, and so it has almost reached bear market territory.

Of course the S&P 500 is already there…"The S&P 500 fell 3.88% to 3,749.63, marking its lowest level since March 2021 and bringing its losses from its January record to more than 21%. The benchmark closed in bear market territory (down more than 20% from its high) after trading there briefly on an intraday basis about three weeks ago. Some on Wall Street say it’s not an official bear market until the index closes there and that’s what happened on Monday. The last time stocks were in a bear market was in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic."

Needless to say, the Nasdaq has them both beat. Tech stocks were on the cutting edge on the way up, and now they are on the bleeding edge on the way down. The Nasdaq dropped another 4.68% on Monday, and at this point it has already dropped over 33 percent from the all-time high.

Just think about that. A third of the value of the Nasdaq has already been obliterated.

Wow.

As I write this article, investors are extremely concerned that the Fed could raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday…"Major averages hit their lows of the session in the final 30 minutes after a Wall Street Journal report suggested the Fed would consider raising rates by 0.75% on Wednesday, more than the half-point increase currently expected."

And Fox Business is reporting that some traders believe that we could actually see a 100 basis point increase in July…."While market consensus is for a half-point interest rate hike at the Fed’s policy-setting meeting this week, the odds for a larger increase next month are surging, with a potential 75-basis point or 100-basis point jump on the table in July. About 16% of traders are penciling in a 100-basis point jump next month, compared to 53% forecasting a 75-basis point increase, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks trading."

Of course the Fed should not be raising rates at all. The U.S. economy is clearly heading into a very painful recession, (depression - CP) and you don’t raise rates as a recession is starting. Unfortunately, Fed officials feel like their hands are tied because inflation is completely out of control. Last week we learned that the consumer price index has risen to 8.6 percent, and we were told that was the highest that it has been since December 1981. But if the inflation rate was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would actually be well over 15 percent at this point.

So the Fed is going to bring down the hammer, and that is going to continue to roil financial markets. And right now cryptocurrencies are being hit harder than anything else. In fact, the price of Bitcoin plunged 15 percent in just 24 hours…"Bitcoin, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency, has lost 15% in the last 24 hours - putting it about 66% below its all-time high in November last year, when it traded around $69,000, according to data from Coinbase. Bitcoin fell below $24,000 Monday, sending the crypto to its lowest level since December 2020."

Ether, the second-most-valuable digital coin, plunged 17%, and has now lost about 75% of its value since November. At the peak, just about every Bitcoin investor was in the green. But as I have warned my readers over and over again, you only make money in the financial markets if you get out in time.

There was quite a bit of panic among crypto investors after the Celsius Network announced that it was being forced to temporarily pause “withdrawals, swaps and transfers”…"Celsius Network Ltd., one of the biggest lenders in crypto and a key player in the world of decentralized finance, said late Sunday that it was pausing withdrawals, swaps and transfers following weeks of speculation over its ability to make good on the outsize returns it offered on certain of its products, including yields as high as 17%. The move effectively halted a platform with registered entities across the globe and billions of dollars worth of digital coins under management, accelerating a selloff in the broader market that was already in progress on concern over prospects for tightening monetary policy ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting this week."

We should watch some of these big players in the cryptocurrency industry very carefully. In the end, I have a feeling that some people that thought that they were “crypto millionaires” will actually walk away with nothing or next to nothing. Of course it isn’t just crypto investors that are going to get eviscerated.

In recent years our financial markets have been transformed into the biggest casino in the history of the world. And a lot of investors had become convinced that the Federal Reserve had decided to permanently rig the game in their favor. Now the rug is being pulled out from under them, and the losses are piling up fast.

Hopefully the markets will stabilize after the Fed decision comes out. But the outlook for the months ahead is terrible, and my regular readers already know what I believe is coming beyond that. It took years to get to the top of the rollercoaster, but the ride down will go much, much faster."
Live Market updates:

"How It Really Is"

 

"Genuinely Satisfying..."

"The happiness that is genuinely satisfying is accompanied by the fullest 
exercise of our faculties and the fullest realization of the world in which we live.''
- Bertrand Russell

"The United States Has Joined the Ranks of Sh*thole Countries"

"The United States Has Joined 
the Ranks of Sh*thole Countries"
by Paul Craig Roberts

"The Biden regime has turned the United States into a laughing stock. Not that the US wasn’t already a laughing matter, but now, oh boy!, even patriots are laughing.

You know those sanctions that were going to bring down Russia? Well, Biden’s sanctions drove up, not down, Russian oil shipments and revenues by 300,000 barrels a day as reported by the Wall Street Journal, and doubled the price of gasoline to Americans as reported by the American Automobile Association. - https://www.rt.com/business/

You know all those tanks and weapons promised to speed Ukraine’s defeat of Russia, well, sorry, the Russians aren’t supplying us with the titanium necessary for tank armor.

The United States government is so stupid and incompetent that the Washington morons do not yet comprehend that by becoming involved in Russia’s limited intervention in eastern Ukraine, formerly part of Russia, Washington is doing more than making the West combatants in the conflict and, thereby, potential targets. The people in Washington have to be the most stupid in the world. They are convincing Russia that her goal of demilitarizing and neutralizing Ukraine requires conquest of the entire country, not just destroying the Ukrainian army sent to reconquer the two breakaway republics in the Russian Donbass region.

In other words, by interfering in the conflict with the hope of bogging down Russia in a Vietnam-type situation, Washington is convincing the Kremlin that Russia cannot achieve her objective without conquering the entirety of Ukraine. Faced with this task, Russia is unlikely to use a go-slow-save-the-civilians war policy. “The Horsemen of the Apocalypse are galloping ahead,” warns Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, but Washington is incapable of hearing anything that sounds like truth.

With Russia strengthened by Western incompetence, Washington has turned its guns against the Republican leading candidate for the governorship of Michigan. Ryan Kelley, leading in the polls, was knocked out of the race when the Democrats had their politicized FBI arrest him for “insurrection” in the false narrative of the “January 6” plot of Trump white supremacists intending to overthrow the US government, not with weapons or armed force, but by taking selfies of themselves sitting in Nancy Pelosi’s chair. For the woke Democrats, a few people wandering around the Capitol is all it takes to overthrow the Unipower US government. https://www.rt.com/news/

In the South American banana republics, former presidents are subject to being arrested by their successors. In much of the world, government is just a place where interest groups fight for power, and as the saying goes, all is fair in love and war. By arresting a political candidate to keep him from being elected, the United States has now joined this third world group. The Nazified Democrats have put the writing on the wall for the wimp Republicans.

The Democrats are abusing their legislative power by conducting “hearings” that President Trump and his supporters are guilty of sedition by attempting an insurrection. In actual fact, Trump’s supporters were listening to Trump’s speech a mile or more away at the Washington Monument, when the alleged “insurrection,” an FBI-orchestrated event, occurred at the Capitol.

Bloomberg “News,” a leading presstitute lie factory, demonizes patriotic Americans as insurrectionists who attempted a coup. Be sure you understand the nonsense of the accusation. Americans who came to Washington to show their support for a presentation to Congress of evidence that the Democrats stole the election from Trump have been arrested as “insurrectionists.” There were not enough “insurrectionists” at the Capitol to overthrow a McDonalds hamburger restaurant. Even if the Capitol had been occupied by people who refused to leave, how does occupying a building amount to a coup?

The purpose of the orchestrated “insurrection” was to breakup and prevent the presentation of the evidence of a stolen election to Congress, which the orchestration succeeded in doing.
Observing the gullibility of Americans, the Democrats and the whore media that services them have turned support for an investigation of election theft into a “deadly attempt to block the transfer of power” and into an “attempted coup” that was “the bloody culmination of a seven-part plan that began before the 2020 election – a plan ultimately moved forward by one person”–Donald Trump. - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/

Well, Trump forgot to arm his troops and he assembled them at the wrong place. 99% of the racist Trump deplorables were assembled too far away to participate in the attempted coup."

Gregory Mannarino, "The Debt Market Has Now Become Unstable, If This Continues Global Markets Will Crash"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/14/22:
"The Debt Market Has Now Become Unstable,
 If This Continues Global Markets Will Crash"
Related:

"Empty Shelves Everywhere At Meijer! Not Good! What's Coming?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 6/14/22:
"Empty Shelves Everywhere At Meijer! Not Good! What's Coming?"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing Empty Shelves Everywhere! We are also noticing ridiculous price increases, and a major food shortage! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Monday, June 13, 2022

"And We Pretended..."

"It was like we had known all along that the sky was going to fall,
 and then it fell, and we pretended to be surprised."
- Elin Hilderbrand, "The Love Season"

"All Hell Is Breaking Loose, Huge Asset Crash Coming"

Jeremiah Babe, 6/13/22:
"All Hell Is Breaking Loose, Huge Asset Crash Coming"

Must Watch! Canadian Prepper, "We Warned You! Now Hell Has Broken Loose!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, PM 6/13/22:
"We Warned You! Now Hell Has Broken Loose!"
"The markets have crashed and its gonna get ugly..."

"Crashed" is past tense. Oh no, it's "crashing" and will go a lot lower, with truly horrifying consequences... - CP