Wednesday, May 4, 2022

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In the center of this serene stellar swirl is likely a harrowing black-hole beast. The surrounding swirl sweeps around billions of stars which are highlighted by the brightest and bluest. The breadth and beauty of the display give the swirl the designation of a grand design spiral galaxy.
The central beast shows evidence that it is a supermassive black hole about 10 million times the mass of our Sun. This ferocious creature devours stars and gas and is surrounded by a spinning moat of hot plasma that emits blasts of X-rays. The central violent activity gives it the designation of a Seyfert galaxy. Together, this beauty and beast are cataloged as NGC 6814 and have been appearing together toward the constellation of the Eagle (Aquila) for roughly the past billion years."

"The New American Nightmare"

"The New American Nightmare"
by Doug Casey

"An International Man lives and does business wherever he finds conditions most advantageous, regardless of arbitrary borders. He’s diversified globally, with passports from multiple countries, assets in several jurisdictions, and his residence in yet another. He doesn’t depend absolutely on any country and regards all of them as competitors for his capital and expertise.

Living as an international man has always been an interesting possibility. But few Americans opted for it, since the U.S. used to reward those who settled in and put down roots. In fact, it rewarded them better than any other country in the world, so there was no pressing reason to become an international man.

Things change, however, and being rooted like a plant – at least if you have a choice – is a suboptimal strategy if you wish to not only survive, but prosper. Throughout history, almost every place has at some point become dangerous for those who were stuck there. It may be America’s turn.

For those who can take up the life of an international man, it’s no longer just an interesting lifestyle decision. It has become, at a minimum, an asset saver, and it could be a lifesaver. That said, I understand the hesitation you may feel about taking action; pulling up one’s roots (or at least grafting some of them to a new location) can be almost as traumatic to a man as to a vegetable.

As any intelligent observer surveys the world’s economic and political landscape, he has to be disturbed – even dismayed and a bit frightened – by the gravity and number of problems that mark the horizon. We’re confronted by economic depression, looming financial chaos, serious currency inflation, onerous taxation, crippling regulation, a developing police state, and, worst of all, the prospect of a major war. It seems almost unbelievable that all these things could affect the U.S., which historically has been the land of the free.

How did we get here? An argument can be made that things went bad because of miscalculation, accident, inattention, and the like. Those elements have had a role, but it is minor. Potential catastrophe across the board can’t be the result of happenstance. When things go wrong on a grand scale, it’s not just bad luck or inadvertence. It’s because of serious character flaws in one or many – or even all – of the players.

So is there a root cause of all the problems I’ve cited? If we can find it, it may tell us how we personally can best respond to the problems. In this article, I’m going to argue that the U.S. government, in particular, has been overrun by the wrong kind of person. It’s a trend that’s been in motion for many years but has now reached a point of no return. In other words, a type of moral rot has become so prevalent that it’s institutional in nature. There is not going to be, therefore, any serious change in the direction in which the U.S. is headed until a genuine crisis topples the existing order. Until then, the trend will accelerate.

The reason is that a certain class of people – sociopaths – are now fully in control of major American institutions. Their beliefs and attitudes are insinuated throughout the economic, political, intellectual, and psychological/spiritual fabric of the U.S.

What does this mean to you, as an individual? It depends on your character. Are you the kind of person who supports "my country, right or wrong," as did most Germans in the 1930s and 1940s? Or the kind who dodges the duty to be a helpmate to murderers? The type of passenger who goes down with the ship? Or the type who puts on his vest and looks for a lifeboat? The type of individual who supports the merchants who offer the fairest deal? Or the type who is gulled by splashy TV commercials?

What the ascendancy of sociopaths means isn’t an academic question. Throughout history, the question has been a matter of life and death. That’s one reason America grew; every American (or any ex-colonial) has forebears who confronted the issue and decided to uproot themselves to go somewhere with better prospects. The losers were those who delayed thinking about the question until the last minute.

I have often described myself, and those I prefer to associate with, as gamma rats. You may recall the ethologist’s characterization of the social interaction of rats as being between a few alpha rats and many beta rats, the alpha rats being dominant and the beta rats submissive. In addition, a small percentage are gamma rats that stake out prime territory and mates, like the alphas, but are not interested in dominating the betas. The people most inclined to leave for the wide world outside and seek fortune elsewhere are typically gamma personalities.

You may be thinking that what happened in places like Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Mao’s China, Pol Pot’s Cambodia, and scores of other countries in recent history could not, for some reason, happen in the U.S.. Actually, there’s no reason it won’t at this point. All the institutions that made America exceptional – including a belief in capitalism, individualism, self-reliance, and the restraints of the Constitution – are now only historical artifacts.

On the other hand, the distribution of sociopaths is completely uniform across both space and time. Per capita, there were no more evil people in Stalin’s Russia, Hitler’s Germany, Mao’s China, Amin’s Uganda, Ceausescu’s Romania, or Pol Pot’s Cambodia than there are today in the U.S. All you need is favorable conditions for them to bloom, much as mushrooms do after a rainstorm.

Conditions for them in the U.S. are becoming quite favorable. Have you ever wondered where the over 50,000 people employed by the TSA to inspect and degrade you came from? Most of them are middle-aged. Did they have jobs before they started doing something that any normal person would consider demeaning? Most did, but they were attracted to – not repelled by – a job where they wear a costume and abuse their fellow citizens all day.

Few of them can imagine that they’re shepherding in a police state as they play their roles in security theater. (A reinforced door on the pilots’ cabin is probably all that’s actually needed, although the most effective solution would be to hold each airline responsible for its own security and for the harm done if it fails to protect passengers and third parties.) But the 50,000 newly employed are exactly the same type of people who joined the Gestapo – eager to help in the project of controlling everyone. Nobody was drafted into the Gestapo.

What’s going on here is an instance of Pareto’s Law. That’s the 80-20 rule that tells us, for example, that 80% of your sales come from 20% of your salesmen or that 20% of the population are responsible for 80% of the crime.

As I see it, 80% of people are basically decent; their basic instincts are to live by the Boy Scout virtues. 20% of people, however, are what you might call potential trouble sources, inclined toward doing the wrong thing when the opportunity presents itself. They might now be shoe clerks, mailmen, or waitresses – they seem perfectly benign in normal times. They play baseball on weekends and pet the family dog. However, given the chance, they will sign up for the Gestapo, the Stasi, the KGB, the TSA, Homeland Security, or whatever. Many seem well intentioned, but are likely to favor force as the solution to any problem.

But it doesn’t end there, because 20% of that 20% are really bad actors. They are drawn to government and other positions where they can work their will on other people and, because they’re enthusiastic about government, they rise to leadership positions. They remake the culture of the organizations they run in their own image. Gradually, non-sociopaths can no longer stand being there. They leave. Soon the whole barrel is full of bad apples. That’s what’s happening today in the U.S.

It’s a pity that Bush, when he was in office, made such a big deal of evil. He discredited the concept. He made Boobus americanus think it only existed in a distant axis, in places like North Korea, Iraq and Iran, which were and still are irrelevant backwaters and arbitrarily chosen enemies. Bush trivialized the concept of evil and made it seem banal because he was such a fool. All the while, real evil, very immediate and powerful, was growing right around him, and he lacked the awareness to see he was fertilizing it by turning the U.S. into a national security state after 9/11.

Now, I believe, it’s out of control. The U.S. is already in a truly major depression and on the edge of financial chaos and a currency meltdown. The sociopaths in government will react by redoubling the pace toward a police state domestically and starting a major war abroad. To me, this is completely predictable. It’s what sociopaths do."

Gregory Mannarino, "Fed. Raises Rates 50bp...Economy In Freefall, Stocks Take Off! Several Things To Know NOW!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/4/22:
"Fed. Raises Rates 50bp...Economy In Freefall, 
Stocks Take Off! Several Things To Know NOW!"

Bill Bonner, "Reaping the Whirlwind"

"Reaping the Whirlwind"
by Bill Bonner

"Sow the wind; reap the whirlwind." 
~ Hosea: 8,7

Dublin, Ireland - "Fox News reports: 'USAID Chief says food shortage crisis will 'hasten transition' to green energy.' Biden official Samantha Power told ABC's George Stephanopoulos that fertilizer shortages would push farmers to more green, "natural" solutions like manure and compost. Speaking of the global consequences of Russia’s war with Ukraine, the Biden official said that fertilizer shortages would provide farmers the opportunity to "hasten" their "transition" from fertilizer to more "natural" resources.

It made us wonder? Has this woman ever been on a farm? We looked her up. Turns out she’s an Irish woman… who moved to America and – in the tradition of Eliza Lynch who, in the 1860s allegedly egged on her lover, the Paraguayan president, to get into a devastating war with three of his neighbors at the same time – has caused nothing but trouble. And no, there is no record of her ever having the slightest stain of manure on her boots. Instead, she has moved from one political appointment… one hack assignment… and one richly-carpeted meddle to another... up and up…The only bright spot in her entire record is when she called Hillary Clinton – off the record – a ‘monster,’ for which she later apologized in order to get back in the monster’s good graces.

It’s the Money, Stoopid! In the real world, no farmer is eager to hasten his transition to more natural resources. He struggles with the real world of wind and weather, rising costs and encroaching regulations… just to earn a living. If he could spread manure on his farm, instead of chemical fertilizers, he would be happy to do so. But everything has a cost… and a return on investment. There are no free lunches in the farmers’ world. And no tractor yet invented is powered by a windmill.

Prime farmland in England is now selling for 9,000 pounds (about $11,000) per acre. For reference, the equivalent price in Argentina is less than a third of that. But land prices are going up everywhere. And the Financial Times reports that there is a new kind of buyer on the scene – a hedge fund manager who is either trying to preserve his capital or improve his lifestyle.

One of the unique features of the current wave of inflation is that it is not limited to one currency or one nation. Making a long story short, the US ‘inflated’ its currency. Other nations had to inflate theirs too or risk a trade disadvantage; a ‘strong’ currency means higher costs which make exports more expensive.

The easiest way to stay competitive was simply to link one’s currency to the dollar. As the dollar lost value against goods and services, so did your own currency. At one point, the Trump administration even accused China of ‘currency manipulation’ – simply because the yuan, linked to the dollar, followed the greenback down.

The result of all this currency inflation is consumer price inflation almost everywhere. Bloomberg: "Euro-area inflation climbed to a fresh all-time high, raising pressure on the European Central Bank to remove crisis-era stimulus and lift interest rates. Consumer prices were up 7.5% from a year earlier in April, in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A gauge excluding volatile items such as food and energy jumped to 3.5%."

And a special source of hurt is likely to come – warns the Biden Administration – from the farm. Here’s the Financial Times: "Commodity prices have spiraled following Russia’s invasion of [the] Ukraine. The two countries supply about 30% of the world’s wheat and are big producers of organic seed, chicken feed and fertilizer."

Dear readers may jump to the conclusion that this is a great time to be a farmer. Farmers will make ‘windfall’ profits, perhaps?

American Nomenklatura: Alas, there’s more to the story… and it ain’t that nice. While farm output prices have risen, farm in-put prices have risen even more. The Consumer Price Index in the US is rising at an 8.5% rate. But the “agflation” rate – fuel, fertilizer and animal feed – is going up at almost 30% per year. This is bad news for almost everyone. For farmers, it means tighter margins; they will reduce expensive inputs – fertilizer herbicides and pesticides. And yes, of course, they will switch to lower-cost, ‘natural’ in-puts if they can. But the consequence will be lower yields. That is to say: less food….

The New York Post: "President Biden on Thursday warned of global food shortages as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - predicting that the war would upend global wheat supplies. Russia and Ukraine jointly supply about a fourth of the world’s wheat exports. “With regard to food shortages, yes we did talk about food shortages. And it’s going to be real,” Biden said at a press conference in Belgium after attending meetings of NATO and G7 leaders."

Rich people like Samantha Power and the rest of America’s nomenklatura may not notice the food shortages. But poorer people will – especially the 9 million or so desperate people who starve to death even in a good year.

Yes, dear reader… now coming into focus is the whole scope of the feds’ crackpot flimflam:

They shut down the economy, supposedly to save lives.
The lockouts reduced output.
They then tried to replace the missing output with phony ‘printing press’ money.
The new money caused inflation.
Inflation drives up food prices, causing millions of people to die.

And the elite look on the bright side – it helps hasten the Green Transition."

The Daily "Near You?"

St. Johnsville, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Gerald Celente, "Ukraine War: Pelosi Visits Kyiv, Biden Admin Wants More War; Fed Set to Raise Rates"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal" 5/4/22:
"Ukraine War: Pelosi Visits Kyiv, Biden Admin Wants More War; 
Fed Set to Raise Rates"

Oh, Gerald's in fine form... lol

"The Fed Has To Do More Than Just Raise Interest Rates"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 5/4/22:
"The Fed Has To Do More Than Just Raise Interest Rates"
"Do you believe if they raise interest rates half a point that it is really going to solve our inflationary problem? I think that this is a problem that is so much deeper than that. This is a worldwide problem."
Related:
ThisisJohnWilliams, 5/4/22:
"Biggest Global Bubble in History Has Just Popped!"
"It's Over..."

"How It REALLY Is"

"The Most Terrifying Thing I've Ever Heard Of"

"The Most Terrifying Thing I've Ever Heard Of"
by JP Sears

"What’s up freedom fighter? In a recent announcement from the Biden Administration, we learned that they are forming a Ministry of Truth aka a disinformation governance board. Its purpose is to dictate to the American people what is true and what is false.

This does not just step on our First Amendment, it does way more than that. It puts the First Amendment in a blender, grinds it up, feeds it to a horse, and once the horse poops it out, then it steps on it. You probably don’t have to be a communications expert to understand that this does not sit well with me. I address the Ministry of Truth in my latest video "How the Biden Administration Creates Policies."

This serves as a reminder for freedom lovers like you and me, to renew our commitment to being the change of freedom we wish to see. We must have a mindset that says, I will not comply with rules made up by the tyrants. You and I will never have to wait for permission to be what we already are, which is free as long as we remember that’s what we are.

By the way, if you want a deeper dive into the Ministry of Truth as well as food shortages that the authoritarians are “predicting”, check out my latest podcast episode!

Remind yourself every once in a while that you were born in freedom and that you are always free -  the responsibility you and I have is to act on that truth."

Yours in freedom,
JP
Related:
"This Is The Point Where We Have To Draw The Line"
Fox News host gives take on the 'Ministry of Truth' 
leader on "Tucker Carlson Tonight."

"The Military Situation In Ukraine"

"Capitulation", by Petr Krivonogov, 1946
"The Military Situation In Ukraine"
by Contributing Reporter

Excerpt: "Is it possible to actually know what has been and is going on in Ukraine? Jacques Baud is a former member of the Swiss strategic intelligence and specialist in Eastern countries. He takes a fact-driven down-to-earth approach to analyze the conflict and the role the West plays in it."
Please view this excellent, lengthy, factually accurate full article here,
with my very highest recommendation:
Full screen recommended.
Russian state TV threatens nuclear strike on 
UK and warns of radioactive tidal wave.
"UK Backs Right Of Ukraine To Attack Russian Territory - 
Kremlin Warns London Of 'Proportional Response'"
by Tyler Durden

Excerpt: "Later in the day Moscow responded by warning of a "proportional response" in such a scenario of aggression laid out by Heappey... "We would like to emphasize that London's direct provoking of the Kiev regime for such actions, in the event that they are implemented, will lead to an immediate and proportional response by Russia", the MoD said.

"As we have warned, the Russian Armed Forces are on round-the-clock standby to launch long-range precision-guided retaliatory strikes against the relevant decision-making centers in Kiev", the ministry asserted, according to a state media translation."

Given the weekly and near-daily escalation in both rhetoric and the heavier and more sophisticated weapons that the West is willing to pour into the conflict, the rising concerns of a Russia-NATO collision course are indeed warranted. Commenting on reports that Germany has approved sending anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine, journalist Glenn Greenwald questions... "Virtually every week, Biden announces new massive aid of cash and weapons to Ukraine. Every week, US/NATO announce greater involvement that, weeks earlier, was deemed unthinkable. It's a full-on proxy war. The risks are mind-boggling. What is being achieved that warrants this?"
Please view this complete article here:
"There are a multitude of fuses affixed to dozens of powder-kegs and little kids with matches are on the loose. I don’t know which of the fuses will be lit and which powder-keg will blow, but someone is bound to do something stupid, and then all hell will break loose. It could happen at any time. One military miscue. One assassination. One violent act that stirs the world. And the dominoes will topple, setting off fireworks not seen on this planet since 1939 – 1945. I can see it all very clearly."
- Jim Quinn 

"Massive Price Increases At Family Dollar! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 5/4/22:
"Massive Price Increases At Family Dollar! What's Next?"
"In today's vlog we are at Family Dollar with empty shelves everywhere! We are here to check out a massive increase in prices, and a massive food shortage! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

MUST WATCH! Gregory Mannarino, "Economic Disaster - Prepare For a Worst Case Scenario!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/4/22:
"Economic Disaster - 
Prepare For a Worst Case Scenario!"

"Doctor StrangeDem?"

Just one image today: My version of a nuclear 
fireball over Los Angeles, as seen from an Arizona truck stop.
"Doctor StrangeDem?"
by Allan Weisbecker

"You all know how I feel about Tucker Carlson, but if not: He’s one of the only MS pundits that I take seriously, although he is limited hangout, an entertaining and smart version thereof, but still limited hangout. Worth listening to with the knowledge that he avoids important truths.

I bring this up because of this recent podcast. In it he explains how/why we are on the brink of a nuclear exchange - which could escalate to WW3 - for reasons I hadn’t yet considered. (Yes, for our purposes here I am assuming nukes are real.) Give it a look, but to sum it briefly: According to Tuck, the dems are apparently stupider and/or more reckless than they even seem (holy sh*t!), and the basis of their dementia goes back to the 2016 election and their insistence that Putin was behind Trump’s victory. Right: Nuts. (In other words, they may actually believe this ridiculous premise, rather than just using it to stir up more division. I actually hadn’t considered this.)

So now Pelosi and others (mainly Adam Schiff) are over in Ukraine, having already said we need to arm Ukraine ‘…so we can fight Russia over there and not here (in the U.S.)’. This was before the current mess. Now they are telling the world that they don’t want a settlement in Ukraine; they want total victory, i.e., Putin out. And they are willing to fight a war to get that.

As I say, this hadn’t occurred to me.

Rather than my going on, please give Carlson (and his clips) a listen. Listen to the lunatic dems telling us they are ready for a shooting war with Russia.

Addendum: Keep in mind that Putin has outright told us that he will use nukes if he feels threatened existentially. In other words, if NATO is on the verge of total victory. And Pelosi/Schiff are saying they will not accept any Ukraine outcome other than total victory. See the problem?

Whaddya think? Is this all more bullsh*t to scare the hell out of us? First death by COVID, now this? Can we trust a word we’re hearing on the MS media, including Tucker Carlson? (A Tucker quote: ‘This is the most reckless foreign policy… in American history.’)

Me, I’m wondering."

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Greg Hunter, "Provoking Nuclear War with Russia – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts"

"Provoking Nuclear War with Russia – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR), former Assistant Treasury Secretary and international award-winning journalist, is warning that NATO and the U.S. is deliberately provoking nuclear war with Russia in Ukraine. PCR explains, “In the middle of a serious situation that can already go out of control, we are adding new provocations. It is clear Washington intends to push these provocations to the hilt. In a normal sane world, everyone would understand that it is recklessly irresponsible to put Finland and Sweden in NATO, particularly at the present time.  The Russians have a high tolerance for provocations and, therefore, the provocations that the West commits never have any costs, and they increase in number and severity. At some point, these provocations are just too much to stand, and that’s where you cross the line and the situation becomes nuclear. How much can you provoke them and they let loose and it hits the fan? I see everything Washington doing is designed to further provoke Russia.”

PCR says people do not realize how dangerous the Biden/Obama administration policy is regarding Russia. This sort of provocation of Russia has simply never happened before. PCR says, “This strikes me as dangerously irresponsible. No other President in our history has ever done that. Nobody in the cold war provoked Russia. It just was not done, you avoided that. You tried to reach reasonable understanding as Kennedy achieved with Khrushchev and, later, what Reagan achieved with Gorbachev. So, what we are witnessing is unprecedented. That’s why it’s dangerous. Washington is doing everything it can think of to provoke Russia.”

In closing, PCR says, “At some point, lightning is going to strike someone in the Kremlin, and they are going to say we are at war and this is World War III. It’s got to happen. Why isn’t it World War III? We are sending another $33 billion to Ukraine.” We are stumbling toward nuclear war. PCR says, “That’s the avenue we are traveling on, and it is not possible to discuss it except to blame it on Putin."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with award-winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts for 5/03/22. (There is much more in the 55 min. interview.)

"Housing Bubble Push Foreclosures To Skyrocket 181% As Mortgage Rate Shock Gets Bigger"

Full screen recommended.
"Housing Bubble Push Foreclosures To Skyrocket 181%
 As Mortgage Rate Shock Gets Bigger"
by Epic Economist

"Alarm bells are ringing in the U.S. red-hot real estate market. Skyrocketing home prices sparked a national housing crisis that has pushed millions of first-time buyers out of the market and set off a new flood of foreclosures. As living expenses face the biggest increase in nearly four decades, hundreds of thousands of homeowners have become unable to keep up with their mortgage payments. Renters, who are also suffering from the lapse of assistance programs, are having to spend a larger share of their incomes to afford the roof over their heads. Meanwhile, the housing bubble is still growing, but the lack of affordability is threatening to drag down activity, and as mortgage rates tick up, a major correction in property values is looming.

Right now, around 88% of the U.S. housing market is overvalued, S&P Global data show. This overwhelming figure is a major indicator of a crisis. As a consequence of soaring prices, millions of first-time buyers are being entirely priced out of the housing market. Since the second quarter of 2020, the median home price in the US has grown about 27%, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. But for Ian Shepherdson, the founder, and chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, the recent spike in mortgage rates will throw a bucket of cold water on a still blazing-hot market.

Last week, that already big economic shock got even bigger. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 4.67%. Just one week earlier the rate was at 4.22%. While back in December it was 3.11%. This, of course, is an immediate hurdle to the demand side of the market. It means that millions of potential borrowers out there will lose their mortgage eligibility. Even those who do maintain their mortgage eligibility could still be deterred by the extra cost it adds to their monthly payment.

Many buyers who qualified for housing loans over the past two years are actually in a group known as “house poor,” which describes the situation of those who are spending too much money on housing and are getting very little in return. These people are often left with very little money to spend on anything else. Over the past 24 months, economic conditions have deteriorated so rapidly that many homeowners have already started losing their properties. In February alone, there was a 70% increase in the number of properties lenders took back compared to the same time one year ago, Black Knight data shows. Adding that to the fact that the nationwide moratorium on foreclosures has expired eight months ago, in April, foreclosure filings climbed to the highest level since the pandemic began.

About 33,333 properties across the U.S. faced foreclosure last month, a 181% increase from 2021.The trend has just begun, and according to the firm’s forecasts, hundreds of thousands of homes are hanging by a thread. As rent prices shoot up, another issue is also developing. Acute increases from $200 to $800 a month are fueling a surge in informal evictions. Millions of renters out there can’t afford to stay in their current homes anymore, and finding affordable rentals has become nearly impossible.

With housing and rent costs rising much faster than people’s incomes, some very needed changes are starting to unfold in the real estate market. With the Fed signaling its unwillingness to back off from rate hikes with inflation at generational highs, demand will keep falling, consequently pushing property values down. A housing bubble burst would mean that just as property values, the economy would also plunge - leaving several other assets with significantly less value. Home prices would greatly deflate leaving investors and homebuyers stuck. And although fundamentals may be different right now, just as it happened during the last housing market crash, when property values depreciate and a home is no longer worth what it was during the rise, homeowners will be left holding the loss - which given today's valuations, could be to the tune of hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars."

"Scanty Eyes on the Fed"

"Scanty Eyes on the Fed"
by Addison Wiggin

“It was the biggest inflation and the most sustained 
inflation that the United States had ever had.”

- Paul Volcker, on the Great Inflation of 1965-1982

"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting tomorrow in Washington. Within 18 hours, we could see a rate hike of 50 basis points… the highest in 22 years… and see if Chairman Powell can schmooze the markets long enough to settle them down. The unsuspecting public – that’s “us” to them! – is getting slammed by inflation, aghast at plummeting stock prices, and holding their breath to see if the Powell Fed is going to stick to their plan and get even more “aggressive” than their puny little hike in March.

How many folks are channeling Paul Volcker these days? For years, Volcker and his successors tried to tame the beast. I met him once in his office many years ago… he had a caricature of himself in the hallway outside his door. Somebody had drawn the large man as a viking slaying the dragon “Inflation.”

Now, we’re at it again… but for all our hand wringing and long interviews it seems like today’s Fed lacks Volcker’s temerity.

A Wiggin Sessions alum, Graham Summers, said “inflation is here and here to stay” back in April 2021. We’ve already seen a volatile “head-and-shoulders” market over the last week. Stocks are plummeting. Our Jim Rickards is bracing for an 80% drop in the Dow.

So… where do we put our money right now, if not in the markets? James Altucher said on The Wiggin Sessions a couple weeks ago: if you’re looking to make a defensive, reactionary play: “gold is a ‘flight to safety’ for older generations, while younger generations prefer crypto.”
Matt Piepenberg echoes this sentiment in this week’s Wiggin Session: “I look at gold as insurance for currencies that are diluted and burning to the ground.” Hopefully the Fed navigates this soft landing without any turbulence… In the meantime, let’s prepare for the worst and expect a crash.

Follow your bliss..."
"P.S. In other news: Watch angry people throw tomatoes at the newly re-elected French President Emmanuel Macron, here. Looks like it’s going to be another tough term for the Free French. Too bad, really, those tomatoes would make a nice ratatouille.

Oh, also this from Bloomberg: Citigroup's London trading desk was behind a flash crash that sent European shares tumbling on Monday. A trader made a mistake “inputting a transaction,” Citigroup said late last night, after a knee-jerk selloff in Swedish stocks in five minutes wreaked havoc, wiping out 300 billion euros… that’s $315 billion dollars."

Gerald Celente, "Miss Information: I'm In Charge"

Full screen recommended.
Strong Language Alert!
Gerald Celente, "The Trends Journal"
"Miss Information: I'm In Charge"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

"Leaving California This Morning; Markets Unstoppable Until They Are Not; The Bubble Will Burst"

Jeremiah Babe, 5/3/22:
"Leaving California This Morning; Markets Unstoppable
 Until They Are Not; The Bubble Will Burst"
Related:

Gregory Mannarino, "Must Watch: You Are Being Gamed, Conned, And Manipulated!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/3/22:
"Must Watch: You Are Being Gamed, Conned, And Manipulated!"

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy (David Caballero), "Footprints On The Sea"

Gnomusy (David Caballero), "Footprints On The Sea"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"What created Devils Tower? The origin of this extraordinary rock monolith in Wyoming, USA is still debated, with a leading hypothesis holding that it is a hardened lava plume that never reached the surface to become a volcano. In this theory, the lighter rock that once surrounded the dense volcanic neck has now eroded away, leaving the dramatic tower. 
Click image for larger size.
Known by Native Americans by names including Bear's Lodge and Great Gray Horn, the dense rock includes the longest hexagonal columns known, some over 180-meters tall. High above, the central band of the Milky Way galaxy arches across the sky. Many notable sky objects are visible, including dark strands of the Pipe Nebula and the reddish Lagoon Nebula to the tower's right. Green grass and trees line the foreground, while clouds appear near the horizon to the tower's left. Unlike many other international landmarks, mountaineers are permitted to climb Devils Tower."

Chet Raymo, "The Ring of Truth"

"The Ring of Truth"
by Chet Raymo

"In Salley Vickers' novel, "Where Three Roads Meet," the shade of Tiresias, the blind seer of the Oedipus myth, visits Sigmund Freud in London during the psychoanalyst's final terrible illness. In a series of conversations, Tiresias retells the story of Oedipus- he who was fated to kill his father and sleep with his mother- a story at the heart of Freud's own theory of the human psyche. At one point in the conversations, as Tiresias and Freud discuss the extent to which our lives are fated, the question of immortality arises. Freud says of Oedipus that "he made his story into an immortal one, so far as any story is." And Tiresias replies, "But, Dr. Freud, stories are all we humans have to make us immortal."

Oedipus lives on, whether he lived or not in actuality. Sophocles lives in our consciousness as vigorously as ever he did in life. They live because their stories touch something resonant and unchanging in human nature. Vickers suggests that what makes the Oedipal story immortal is not any necessary tendency of humans to act out the Oedipal myth, a la Freud, but rather Oedipus's rage to know the truth- or become conscious of a truth he has known all along and suppressed - even though the truth will be his undoing.

The poet Muriel Rukesyser got it exactly right when she said: "The universe is made of stories, not atoms." Even atoms are stories we tell about the world, having first paid close attention to how the world works. The plays of Sophocles and the other Greek dramatists live on not because their authors were immortal, but because nature endures and their stories tell us something that rings true about enduring nature. And, like Oedipus, we have a rage to know, even if knowledge will unseat some of our more comfortable illusions.

"Knowing..."

“Knowing can be a curse on a person’s life. I’d traded in a pack of lies for a pack of truth, and I didn’t know which one was heavier. Which one took the most strength to carry around? It was a ridiculous question, though, because once you know the truth, you can’t ever go back and pick up your suitcase of lies. Heavier or not, the truth is yours now.”
- Sue Monk Kidd

"Nine Meals from Anarchy"

"Nine Meals from Anarchy"
by Jeff Thomas

In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky. The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.

But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbor with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbor and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”

But surely, there’s no need to speculate on this concern yet. There’s nothing on the evening news to suggest that such a problem even might be on the horizon. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.

The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.

If there were a month where significant inflation took place (say, 3%; now at least 15%- CP), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.

From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalized.

In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.

However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighborhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighborhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighborhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.

In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.

Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.

Then… unfortunately… the cavalry arrives. At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighborhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.

Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighborhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place.

So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop.

With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.

Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.

In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.

Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured."

"Food Bank Demand Soars (Again) As Inflation Crushes Working-Poor "

"Food Bank Demand Soars (Again)
As Inflation Crushes Working-Poor "
by Tyler Durden

"The highest inflation prints in four decades have forced some Americans to flood food banks and pantries (again). WSJ reports that Forgotten Harvest in Detroit has experienced a dramatic increase in demand. Since December, demand at the food bank has increased from 25% to 45%. In March alone, when energy and food prices soared, demand jumped 30% over the prior month. Christopher Ivey, a spokesman for the Detroit food bank, said, "the need is growing quickly, as gas prices are continuing to rise." "As you know, there are shortages in the grocery store and the costs of the commodity goods are going up and up and up, Ivey said, adding this is putting pressure on the food bank."

The hunger crisis is countrywide. With a network of 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries and meal programs, Feeding America published new data that found demand for its food assistance in February increased in nearly every food bank (85%). That was a 20% increase versus January's numbers.

Allison Korn, the director of the Food Law & Policy Clinic at the University of California, Los Angeles, said the virus pandemic sparked food insecurity, and today's inflation environment has made things worse. "You will continue to see folks come into food banks who are seniors, who are undocumented individuals, and persons who suffer from disabilities ... But you're also seeing folks who are just kind of trying to cobble together jobs who may suffer from chronic and persistent unemployment," Korn said.

Working-poor households have been battered by inflation at a four-decade high. The price of food in March was 10% versus the same month last year. Inflation has outpaced wage growth, sending real wages negative. Also, the personal savings rate has collapsed to its lowest level since December 2014, an ominous sign the consumer is stressed.

Higher food bank demand has put pressure on this organization's supply chains because of increased food costs, rising freight costs, and food availability. "We have had to work harder to secure the food needed to support the community," Tim Fetsch, the St. Louis Area Foodbank chief operating officer, told WSJ. Fetsch warned that today's inflationary environment and supply chain disruptions had reduced the amount of food donated.

Feeding America's CEO Katie Fitzgerald said food banks in the organization's network had increased food purchases by 60%. She outlined costs have increased by 40%. "What's important to understand is that lower-income households are unraveling as consumer prices are at historically high levels. It's a sign that some households are at breaking points amid threats of stagflation. "

"Massive Shortages in 90 Days - Why Everyone Should Care About Diesel Fuel Prices"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 5/3/22:
"Massive Shortages in 90 Days - 
Why Everyone Should Care About Diesel Fuel Prices"
"Globally we are going to see massive shortages within 90 days. I have had people from around the globe reach out to me. This includes farmers and business people from every walk of life. Diesel fuel is shooting up in price around the globe and it’s only going to get more expensive. There will be food shortages globally very soon."

Bill Bonner, "Down the Drain"

"Down the Drain"
Never have so many lost so much money so fast.
by Bill Bonner

Dublin, Ireland - "Last week, we got news that the US economy is now in reverse. It is no longer growing; it is shrinking, backing up. Less income, fewer sales, less profits, smaller salaries – the whole shebang. Never, in our entire lifetimes, have so many lost so much so fast. MarketWatch has the shocking report: "The most concerning thing about Thursday’s report on U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter wasn’t that the first line of the first table showed that real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate. It was the little-noticed news on line 34 showing that real disposable incomes fell for a fourth straight quarter. Over the last four quarters, the purchasing power of after-tax household incomes plunged by $2.2 trillion (in 2021 dollars). That’s a 10.9% decline, by far the largest in the records dating back to 1947."

Wait a minute. It’s worse than that. Real disposable personal income (as opposed to household incomes) for March was actually 20% below that of March 2021. No mystery. No magic. It’s just that old symmetry we’ve been talking about.

Hopes Flushed: When the Covid hit, the feds panicked. Donald Trump declared an emergency (there was none)… and started handing out money (there was none of that available either.) And then, Joe Biden and his team continued the madness with another $1.9 trillion in unnecessary spending of non-existent money.

This tsunami of free money washed over a hunkered-down economy. Unable to spend the money, ‘savings rates’ rose like the plastic ball in a toilet tank. From an average of 6% the rate floated up to 34%. But then, of course, the Covid receded, the masks came off, businesses opened up and Americans flushed all that extra money into the economy. Prices rose, as you’d expect. The gimmies and stimmies soon petered out. And savings rates went right back down to 6%. GDP growth – which, in the last quarter of 2021, had been hoisted to 6.9% on the feds’ $3 trillion budget deficit petarde – collapsed down to the aforementioned MINUS 1.4%.

It was fun while it lasted. But now it’s over. And it causes us to wonder… what if? What if these things had not happened? What if the 21st century had never come… and things merely continued, more or less as they had in the 20th century? What if the feds hadn’t squandered $20 trillion (plus or minus) on wars and bailouts since 1999? What if they hadn’t shut down the economy in 2020… and spent money out the wazoo to make up for it? And what if the internet had never been invented?

Sliding Poors: Access to the world wide web was supposed to bring unparalleled riches. After all, it was “information” that separated the rich from the poor. The rich know how to make money. The poor do not. And finally, thanks to Microsoft and Google… that vital information was available to everyone. Even the most humble peasant in the dustiest, most windblown burg in the the most dogsh*t country on earth could fire up his laptop computer and discover how to do Mergers and Acquisitions!

This knowledge was destined to blow out all the speed limits on the great highway of commerce and innovation, or so they said. And yet, since the Clinton years of the 1990s, GDP growth has dropped steadily… from nearly 4% down to this last quarter’s dismal reading of NEGATIVE 1.4%.

So, what if the internet hadn’t come along? What if the growth rates of the 20th century had continued? Pew Research reports: “Most of the increase in household income was achieved in the period from 1970 to 2000. In these three decades, the median income increased by 41%, to $70,800, at an annual average rate of 1.2%. From 2000 to 2018, the growth in household income slowed to an annual average rate of only 0.3%. If there had been no such slowdown and incomes had continued to increase in this century at the same rate as from 1970 to 2000, the current median U.S. household income would be about $87,000, considerably higher than its actual level of $74,600.”

There you have it. Or at least part of it. The ‘more to the story’ is that the feds gummed up the banking system with all their deadhead rules. And they fiddled interest rates into negative territory and brought forth an additional $50 trillion – household, business, and federal – worth of debt so far this century.

Meanwhile, the internet provided an around-the-clock circus, distracting the public from the real economy… and offering a cheap, hollow substitute for real knowledge. In 2001, the masses became experts on the geopolitics of the Middle East. In 2008, they mastered Keynesian economic theory. Then, in 2020, it was virology that absorbed billions of hours that might otherwise have been put to productive uses. And now, they know all they need to know about the Russo-Ukrainian war… and Kim Kardashian! Without the internet, in other words, we might all be richer… happier… safer… and smarter…but we wouldn’t have TikTok or NFTs, would we?"
Related:

The Daily "Near You?"

Campton, New Hampshire, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Checking Prices And Food Shortages At Meijer! Grab It Before It's Gone!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 5/3/22:
"Checking Prices And Food Shortages At Meijer! 
Grab It Before It's Gone!"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer checking out food shortages, and price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! Expect to Be Distracted, Propagandized and Lied To"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/3/22:
"Alert! Expect to Be Distracted, Propagandized and Lied To"
Market Data Center, live updates:

"Why are Most People Cowards? Obedience and the Rise of Authoritarianism"

Full screen recommended.
Academy of Ideas,
"Why are Most People Cowards? 
Obedience and the Rise of Authoritarianism"
Hat tip to The Burning Platform:
“Cowardice asks the question, 'Is it safe?' Expediency asks the question, 'Is it politic?' Vanity asks the question, 'Is it popular?' But, conscience asks the question, 'Is it right?' And there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because one's conscience tells one that it is right”
- Martin Luther King Jr.