Wednesday, November 10, 2021

"The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse”

"The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse”
by Dmitry Orlov

“Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth. Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence.

But so far, little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s evocative but unscientific-sounding “clusterf**k,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases. Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point.

Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

For instance, the collapse of the Soviet Union – our most recent and my personal favorite example of an imperial collapse – did not reach the point of political disintegration of the republics that made it up, although some of them (Georgia, Moldova) did lose some territory to separatist movements. And although most of the economy shut down for a time, many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout. And although there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse, because most of the population did not lose access to food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. The command-and-control structure of the Soviet economy largely decoupled the necessities of daily life from any element of market psychology, associating them instead with physical flows of energy and physical access to resources. Thus situation, as I argue in my book, "Reinventing Collapse", allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States.

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers – the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this – I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it.

Rather than tying each phase to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift. It is something of a cultural universal that nobody (but a real fool) wants to be the last fool to believe in a lie.

Stages of Collapse:

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, "The Mountain People"). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, "The Gulag Archipelago"). There may even be some cannibalism.

Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy – a conscious but inexorable march to perdition – rather than a farce (“Oops! Ah, here we are, Stage 5.” – “So, whom do we eat first?” – “Me! I am delicious!”) Let us sketch out this process.

Financial collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts. One is that a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development. The second part consists of men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, “f**ked up,” and so this is also just as it should be.

The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about “the wages of sin” and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: “You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, ‘f****d up,’ and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don’t do dishes.” This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse – the Second Great Depression.

However, this is unlikely, because in the US the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

About the only thing the government currently seems it fit to do is extend further credit to those in trouble, by setting interest rates at far below inflation, by accepting worthless bits of paper as collateral and by pumping money into insolvent financial institutions. This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example, repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population. It could promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defense forces to maintain law and order. The Army Corps of Engineers could be ordered to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced. In the interim, it could reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent. With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children’s futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. Thus, a much more likely scenario is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests. It will impose austerity conditions, maintain law and order through draconian means, and aid in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations. As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

If Stage 1 collapse can be observed by watching television, observing Stage 2 might require a hike or a bicycle ride to the nearest population center, while Stage 3 collapse is more than likely to be visible directly through one’s own living-room window, which may or may not still have glass in it. After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States – because “nobody goes there any more.” So as not to lose out on the entertainment value, the foreign press still prints sporadic fables about Americans who eat their young, much as they did about Russia following the Soviet collapse. A few brave American expatriates who still come back to visit bring back amazing stories of a different kind, but everyone considers them eccentric and perhaps a little bit crazy.

Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse the dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct federal, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Macchiavelian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity’s existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book “The Mountain People.” If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

While attempting to arrest collapse at Stage 1 and Stage 2 would probably be a dangerous waste of energy, it is probably worth everyone’s while to dig in their heels at Stage 3, definitely at Stage 4, and it is quite simply a matter of physical survival to avoid Stage 5. In certain localities – those with high population densities, as well as those that contain dangerous nuclear and industrial installations – avoiding Stage 3 collapse is rather important, to the point of inviting foreign troops and governments in to maintain order and avoid disasters. Other localities may be able to prosper indefinitely at Stage 3, and even the most impoverished environments may be able to supportThe Balance "US Economy Collapse: What Would Happen?"a sparse population subsisting indefinitely at Stage 4.

Although it is possible to prepare directly for surviving Stage 5, this seems like an altogether demoralizing thing to attempt. Preparing to survive Stages 3 and 4 may seem somewhat more reasonable, while explicitly aiming for Stage 3 may be reasonable if you plan to become one of the Big Men. Be that as it may, I must leave such preparations as an exercise for the reader. My hope is that these definitions of specific stages of collapse will enable a more specific and fruitful discussion than the one currently dominated by such vague and ultimately nonsensical terms as “the collapse of Western civilization.”
Related:
Freely download “Collapse of Complex Societies”, by Joseph Tainter:

The World Breaks Everyone..."

"Inflation Is Ripping Higher At Its Fastest Pace Ever! And You Haven't Seen Anything Yet!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 11/10/21:
"Inflation Is Ripping Higher At Its Fastest Pace Ever! 
And You Haven't Seen Anything Yet!"

"Happy Birthday US Marine Corps"

 
- CP, Veteran, USMC, MOS 0311

Full screen recommended.
"The Marine Corps Hymn"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 11/10/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 11/10/21"

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
 Nov. 9th to 10th , Updated Daily
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts
https://wallstreetonparade.com/
Oh yeah...

"When It Comes To 2022, You Should Definitely Prepare For The Worst"

"When It Comes To 2022, 
You Should Definitely Prepare For The Worst"
by Michael Snyder

"If you have a bad feeling about 2022, you are not alone. As we approach the new year, it seems like things are going wrong all around us. We are facing the most epic supply chain crisis in our history, inflation is out of control, vaccine mandates are killing careers and forcing people out of jobs all over the country, and America is the most deeply divided that I have ever seen in my entire lifetime. Meanwhile, another wave of the pandemic appears to be building, our hospitals are already packed with non-COVID patients, global hunger is on the rise, and a major war could erupt in the Middle East at literally any moment. Unfortunately, I am entirely convinced that many of the problems that we are currently dealing with will escalate to an entirely new level in 2022.

For example, if you think that inflation is bad now, just wait until you see what is coming. We just got more evidence that wholesale inflation numbers are absolutely soaring…"New wholesale inflation numbers from September are in and once again prove the rapid increase in prices for everyday items isn’t “transitory” as President Joe Biden has repeatedly claimed.

Wholesale prices rose by 8.6 percent compared to September 2020, matching the largest increase on record.The days of relatively low inflation are gone for good. As wholesale inflation numbers continue to spike at a very alarming rate, it is inevitable that these cost increases will be passed along to consumers."

Unfortunately, some corporations have already announced price hikes that will go into effect in 2022. For example, check out the increases that Kraft Heinz has planned for January 9th…"In a letter to a regional distributor to grocery stores obtained by CNN Business, Kraft Heinz said it plans to raise prices on hundreds of items beginning on January 9, including varieties of Jell-O gelatin and pudding, which will jump from anywhere between 7 percent and 16 percent, and Bagel Bites frozen snacks, which will see an increase of roughly 10 percent. Meanwhile, Cool Whip topping varieties will see an increase of 7 to 10 percent. The cost of EZ Mac will rise 3.5 percent, while a 7.25-ounce dish of Kraft Big Bowl Mac & Cheese will see a 20 percent price hike."

A 20 percent price hike for mac and cheese? If you love mac and cheese, this would be a good time to start hoarding.

Meanwhile, the price of gasoline continues to rise very aggressively…"Gas prices soared to a seven-year high, reaching a nationwide average of $3.42 as of Tuesday, according to data from the American Automobile Association. That’s 16 cents higher than a month ago, or $1.31 more than a year ago, and 80 cents more than in 2019, according to AAA."

I have been relentlessly warning that very painful inflation would come, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning of a long national nightmare. As I discussed earlier this week, our unprecedented supply chain crisis is one of the primary factors that is causing inflation to run so hot. In particular, the global shortage of computer chips has been significantly affecting levels of production in countless other industries, and now we are being told that this shortage will last “well into next year”

"The latest dose of reality was offered up by Infineon’s CEO, who said this week that the chip shortage would last “well into next year,” according to Bloomberg. Infineon a German semiconductor manufacturer founded in 1999 that is one of the 10 largest semiconductor manufacturers in the world. Sales to the automotive industry make up about 40% of the company’s revenue. CEO Reinhard Ploss made the comments at an auto conference this week, stating that the company wouldn’t be able to work off its order backlog until 2022." Of course the CEO of Infineon was still trying to be optimistic when he made those comments. In reality, there appears to be no end in sight for the chip shortage.

The supply chain crisis is also deeply affecting the distribution of food all over the planet, and that even includes food banks here in the United States…"The ripple effect of the supply chain crisis continues - now, it’s disrupting food banks. “When there’s a shortage in supply chain, it makes it much more difficult for us to be able to provide our clients with food,” said Linda Hansen, the food bank director at Wellspring Interfaith Social Services."

I am so thankful for all of the wonderful food banks around the country that do such a great job of feeding so many needy people. Unfortunately, their job is going to become increasingly difficult as our supply chain woes intensify.

And without a doubt, our supply chain woes will get a whole lot worse once the new OSHA mandate goes into effect. A ruling by the Firth Circuit has temporarily suspended the mandate as litigation moves forward, and that is good news. But eventually it is probably inevitable that the U.S. Supreme Court will be forced to take up this matter, and the U.S. Supreme Court has made bad decision after bad decision in recent years.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is telling businesses to ignore the Fifth Circuit and to “move forward” with getting their workers vaccinated…"The White House on Monday said businesses should move forward with President Joe Biden’s vaccine and testing requirements for private businesses, despite a federal appeals court ordering a temporary halt to the rules. “People should not wait,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters during a briefing. “They should continue to move forward and make sure they’re getting their workplace vaccinated.”

If the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately rules that Biden’s OSHA mandate is legal, it will be a death blow for our economy, and it will be a death blow for liberty and freedom in the United States. So the stakes are incredibly high, and I do not have much faith in the U.S. Supreme Court at all. But even if we want to totally disregard the OSHA mandate for now, 2022 is still shaping up to be a really nightmarish year. Things are bad now, but they will soon get even worse. I encourage you to prepare accordingly."

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

"Scariest Economy We Have Seen; Hard Times Are Coming; Stockpile Food Now; Good Health Is Critical"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, PM 11/9/21:
"Scariest Economy We Have Seen; Hard Times Are Coming; 
Stockpile Food Now; Good Health Is Critical"

"Used Car Prices Jump By Nearly 70 Percent As Inflation Spreads Chaos Across The US Economy"

Full screen recommended.
"Used Car Prices Jump By Nearly 70 Percent 
As Inflation Spreads Chaos Across The US Economy"
by Epic Economist

"It turns out that all of those dissonant voices that recently came forward to warn about a nightmarish inflationary spike while no one believed them were right after all. Right now, US consumers are facing a shocking price surge all across the board. However, industry specialists say the worst is yet to come. That's painful to even imagine because we're seeing acute price increases already. In particular, vehicle prices have shot up to extraordinary highs over the past few months. The spike has been fueled by a global shortage of semiconductors, which collapsed production, and resulted in perilously low inventory levels all over the country. Part of the demand shifted into the used vehicle market, and that also caused a staggering jump in prices for used cars. In fact, the latest data show that during the month of October, used vehicle prices have escalated at a pace that we have never seen before in our entire history.

Last month's used car price growth managed to shock even the experts. According to the industry’s key index, in October alone, used vehicle prices soared another 9.2%, which puts the index 38% higher than a year ago - compared to 27% in September. If used vehicle prices escalated by 9.2 percent over the year, that would already be quite problematic. The fact that massive increase happened in just one month is truly breathtaking. Overall, used car prices rocketed by 38% from the already sky-high levels last October. But compared to October 2019 levels, prices soared by an alarming 59%. That means if you bought a new car over the past couple of years, right now it could potentially be worth more than when it was brand new.

If that doesn't scream “hyperinflation” to you, then you need to look again. The irony of all is that October is known as the month when used vehicle prices usually go down. According to Manheim Index data, "October typically sees above-average vehicle depreciation and therefore used price declines". This October was the first October in the history of the index, which dates back to 1997, that a major price increase has occurred in October. Given that consumer demand remains as strong as ever, industry experts say that prices aren’t going to drop any time soon. At this point, we are witnessing rampant inflation in several sectors of our economy. Sharp price hikes are hitting food products too, with some items facing a four-fold increase year-over-year.

In a recent article published by The Wall Street Journal, supermarket owners disclosed that customers are "purchasing more store-brand meat products and trading down from beef to less-expensive alternatives such as chicken or pork," after prices for items such as rib-eye soared almost 40% from a year ago, according to research firm IRI. Many consumers are replacing boneless chicken breast with cheaper bone-in chicken, the retailers revealed. As food prices continue to escalate, some grocery store owners are reporting high rates of shoplifting. And some big retailers are reinforcing security to prevent food deliveries from being hijacked.

We're in the middle of the worst supply chain crisis in modern times, but new measures issued by the government are only aggravating the situation. That's one of the main reasons why prices are starting to spin out of control. Every time congestion eases, a new disruption emerges and the crisis worsens again. To make things worse, as we head to what is projected to be another very cold winter, heating bills are expected to face an unwelcome uptick in the coming months. Needless to say, with consumers already coping with the fastest price increases in decades, a rise in the cost of basic household necessities will make millions of families suffer financially. According to the Census Bureau, twenty-nine percent of the population have reported reducing or forgoing household expenses to pay an energy bill in the last year.

Last month, the Energy Information Administration warned that the cost of heating oil is forecasted to go up by approximately 43% compared to last year due to higher than expected fuel costs as well as more consumption of energy due to a colder winter. The agency also forecasts propane costs to jump by 54%, while natural gas costs climb by 30% and electricity costs to rise by 6%. We will be extremely lucky if things do not get that crazy in the coming months. This is going to be an undeniably difficult winter for millions of American families. Our problems will extend well into 2022. That is to say, we should get ready for higher inflation, more supply chain disruptions, and generalized chaos all over the economy. And the worst part of this is that nobody in Washington seems to have a plan to save us from this unprecedented mess."

Gerald Celente, Trends Journal, "Think For Yourself, It's Not Illegal Yet"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal, 11/9/21:
"Think For Yourself, It's Not Illegal Yet"

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Courting the Moon"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Courting the Moon"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"A gorgeous spiral galaxy, M104 is famous for its nearly edge-on profile featuring a broad ring of obscuring dust lanes. Seen in silhouette against an extensive central bulge of stars, the swath of cosmic dust lends a broad brimmed hat-like appearance to the galaxy suggesting a more popular moniker, the Sombrero Galaxy. This sharp optical view of the well-known galaxy made from ground-based image data was processed to preserve details often lost in overwhelming glare of M104's bright central bulge. 
Also known as NGC 4594, the Sombrero galaxy can be seen across the spectrum, and is host to a central supermassive black hole. About 50,000 light-years across and 28 million light-years away, M104 is one of the largest galaxies at the southern edge of the Virgo Galaxy Cluster. Still the colorful spiky foreground stars in this field of view lie well within our own Milky Way galaxy. "

"I Would Rather Have..."

"When a bull is being lead to the slaughter, it still hopes to break loose and trample its butchers. Other bulls have not been able to pass on the knowledge that this never happens and that from the slaughterhouse there is no way back to the herd. But in human society there is a continuous exchange of experience. I have never heard of a man who broke away and fled while being led to his execution. It is even thought to be a special form of courage if a man about to be executed refuses to be blindfolded and dies with his eyes open. But I would rather have the bull with his blind rage, the stubborn beast who doesn't weigh his chances of survival with the prudent dull-wittedness of man, and doesn't know the despicable feeling of despair."
- Nadezhda Mandelstam

Paulo Coelho, "Killing Our Dreams"

"Killing Our Dreams"
by Paulo Coelho

"The first symptom of the process of our killing our dreams is the lack of time. The busiest people I have known in my life always have time enough to do everything. Those who do nothing are always tired and pay no attention to the little amount of work they are required to do. They complain constantly that the day is too short. The truth is, they are afraid to fight the Good Fight.

The second symptom of the death of our dreams lies in our certainties. Because we don’t want to see life as a grand adventure, we begin to think of ourselves as wise and fair and correct in asking so little of life. We look beyond the walls of our day-to-day existence, and we hear the sound of lances breaking, we smell the dust and the sweat, and we see the great defeats and the fire in the eyes of the warriors. But we never see the delight, the immense delight in the hearts of those who are engaged in the battle. For them, neither victory nor defeat is important; what’s important is only that they are fighting the Good Fight.

And, finally, the third symptom of the passing of our dreams is peace. Life becomes a Sunday afternoon; we ask for nothing grand, and we cease to demand anything more than we are willing to give. In that state, we think of ourselves as being mature; we put aside the fantasies of our youth, and we seek personal and professional achievement. We are surprised when people our age say that they still want this or that out of life. But really, deep in our hearts, we know that what has happened is that we have renounced the battle for our dreams – we have refused to fight the Good Fight.

When we renounce our dreams and find peace, we go through a short period of tranquility. But the dead dreams begin to rot within us and to infect our entire being. We become cruel to those around us, and then we begin to direct this cruelty against ourselves. That’s when illnesses and psychoses arise. What we sought to avoid in combat – disappointment and defeat – come upon us because of our cowardice. And one day, the dead, spoiled dreams make it difficult to breathe, and we actually seek death. It’s death that frees us from our certainties, from our work, and from that terrible peace of our Sunday afternoons."

The Poet: Carl Sandburg, "Four Preludes on Playthings of the Wind"

"Four Preludes on Playthings of the Wind"

 The past is a bucket of ashes.

1
 "The woman named Tomorrow
sits with a hairpin in her teeth
and takes her time
and does her hair the way she wants it,
and fastens at last the last braid and coil
and puts the hairpin where it belongs
and turns and drawls: Well, what of it?
My grandmother, Yesterday, is gone.
What of it? Let the dead be dead.

2
The doors were cedar
and the panels strips of gold,
and the girls were golden girls
and the panels read and the girls chanted:
We are the greatest city,
the greatest nation:
nothing like us ever was.

The doors are twisted on broken hinges.
Sheets of rain swish through on the wind
where the golden girls ran and the panels read:
We are the greatest city,
the greatest nation,
nothing like us ever was.

3
It has happened before.
Strong men put up a city and got
a nation together,
And paid singers to sing and women
to warble: We are the greatest city,
the greatest nation,
nothing like us ever was.

And while the singers sang
and the strong men listened
and paid the singers well
and felt good about it all,
there were rats and lizards who listened
and the only listeners left now
are the rats and the lizards.

And there are black crows
crying, Caw, caw,
bringing mud and sticks
building a nest
over the words carved
on the doors where the panels were cedar
and the strips on the panels were gold
and the golden girls came singing:
We are the greatest city,
the greatest nation:
nothing like us ever was.

The only singers now are crows crying, Caw, caw,
And the sheets of rain whine in the wind and doorways.
And the only listeners now are the rats and the lizards.

4
The feet of the rats
scribble on the door sills;
the hieroglyphs of the rat footprints
chatter the pedigrees of the rats,
and babble of the blood
and gabble of the breed
of the grandfathers and the great-grandfathers
of the rats.

And the wind shifts
and the dust on a door sill shifts,
and even the writing of the rat footprints
tells us nothing, nothing at all
about the greatest city, the greatest nation
where the strong men listened
and the women warbled: Nothing like us ever was."

- Carl Sandburg, 1878 -1967
"Four Preludes on Playthings of the Wind"

The Daily "Near You?"

Chugiak, Alaska, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Public Policy: An Elaborate Fraud"

"Public Policy: An Elaborate Fraud"
by Bill Bonner

"To all the young people out there – I want you
to stay angry. I want you to stay frustrated."
– Barack Obama to climate activists

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "A dear reader, Steve S., writes: “I read all of Bill’s blogs. Obviously they are sarcastic and generally negative. Usually criticizing and pointing fingers. But I don’t ever see the positive aspects. What exactly does Bill want? How would he fix the problems? What does Bill actually stand for?”

We’re glad you asked, Steve. We stand for nothing. We only know what we like. Truth, rather than lies. Beauty, rather than ugliness. And freedom over slavery. Even as to that, it is not so much that we care about “freedom;” we just don’t like anyone telling us what to do. And why should they? We know what we want better than they do.

Lessons Learned: Of course, we do not claim to know everything. We admit, in fact, that we know very little. We can take a fair guess about tomorrow’s temperature… but as for 10 years from now, we know no more than the climatologists. But man must have some way of guiding his actions. He makes his guesses… he puts 2 and 2 together… and he turns to the lessons learned over centuries: Don’t spend more than you can afford… Don’t invade Russia… And if you find yourself in a spooky house, don’t go down into the basement.

Major Screw-Up: If we are “generally negative,” it is because we are commenting on public policy… which is almost always an elaborate fraud, backed by brute force. Wars… central planning… world improvement – can you give us one example of a large public policy that wasn’t a scam, a waste of money, or a major screw-up? The only ones that are even borderline worthwhile are those where we were fighting someone else’s even worse public policy…such as World War II.

In the early 1940s, America mobilized in what was the biggest public policy move in U.S. history. Automobiles stopped rolling from the assembly lines; tanks took their place. Sixteen million men and women joined the armed forces. U.S. debt soared. It was probably wasteful and foolish in many respects, but under the circumstances, almost everyone agreed that it was the right thing to do.

Misguided Policies: But the World War II global catastrophe wasn’t caused by the U.S., or by greedy corporations… or old white men… or by a lack of diversity on school boards… or by a virus or changing weather patterns. As German Holocaust survivor Hannah Arendt explained, it wasn’t caused by “hate,” either. It was caused by public policies initiated by politicians and administered by bureaucrats. Could the problem be fixed? Probably not. People do jackass things from time to time… and think they’re making improvements.

In the 1930s, Germany thought it could enhance its “Lebensraum.” Japan wanted to increase its “co-prosperity sphere.” Both looked to win by making weaker neighbors lose. Adolf Hitler even drew a comparison with American pioneers, who took land from native tribes in order to develop their own Lebensraum, from sea to shining sea. The world would be a better place, he argued, if Germans were able to more efficiently exploit the “under-used” lands to the East.

And who could say he was wrong?The invaders might have treated the Poles well. They might have brought tractors and increased productivity and wages. They might have actually made the Steppes bloom and hearts glad.

Stop at Nothing: In the evening, people walk their dogs in the park in front of our office. The dogs do what dogs do after being trapped in an apartment all day. And their owners bend over and pick up the canine excrement and put it in the trash. There is a law that insists on it. But the law is almost never enforced. Still, people clean up after their pets because they recognize that it’s the right thing to do… and they don’t want to be seen not doing it by their neighbors.

Which leads us to another old lesson: Anything you have to force people to do is probably not worth doing. In private policy, people normally respect the rules of civilized life. If they want land in Poland, for example, they have to buy it lawfully. No force required. But in public policy, the sky’s the limit… nothing is too barbaric or too preposterous. As we’ve seen, governments, in pursuit of public policy goals, will stop at nothing – neither murder, mass starvation, nor genocide.

Big Time Action: Which brings us back to Saint Greta, the climate change activist, subject of yesterday’s Diary. She wants action. Not “blah, blah.” She’s angry… frustrated. And the kind of action she wants is Big Time public policy action. That is, she is not satisfied with reducing her own carbon footprint and persuading others to do the same. She wants to force other people to do things they don’t want to do – on a scale not seen since World War II.

As America’s special presidential envoy to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), John Kerry, put it last week, the price tag will be trillions, not billions. And we’re talking about major changes – to the way we heat our homes, to the way we drive to work and the way we power our factories (if we have any left). One climate change enthusiast, Louise Crabtree-Hayes, even suggested that we might have to outlaw private homes to meet the “emergency.”

The cost – in money and inconvenience – will be huge. But it could be far worse…In 1850, the pre-industrial economy supported only 1.2 billion people. Today, we have 7.8 billion people, almost all of whom depend on oil, gas, or coal. Imagine the “supply chain disruptions” that could result from cutting off supplies of fuel.

Deadly Policy: And what is the truth of an “emergency,” like the attack on Pearl Harbor? Do we tighten our belts, stiffen our backbones, and accept the sacrifices that will be required of us? Or is the whole thing a false alarm… or a scam? If only we could read tomorrow’s headlines today!

All we know is that billions of people have been borne up out of poverty by nature’s stored-up energy. They’ve been able to live longer, more comfortable lives – with out-of-season fruits and vegetables, air-conditioning, and solar rooftop panels.

Meanwhile, the death toll from public policies in the 20th century – wars, government-caused starvation, concentration camps and the Gulag – was estimated by self-described atrocitologist Matthew White at 203 million, including 37 million soldiers, 27 million civilians killed as collateral damage, 81 million killed in purges and mass murders, and 58 million who were intentionally starved to death.

Saint Greta proposes more aggressive government action. But on this rudimentary evidence, the human race might be better off limiting public policies, rather than limiting the use of fossil fuel."

"Just Remember..."

“I know the world seems terrifying right now and the future seems bleak. Just remember human beings have always managed to find the greatest strength within themselves during the darkest hours. When faced with the worst horrors the world has to offer, a person either cracks and succumbs to ugliness, or they salvage the inner core of who they are and fight to right wrongs. Never let hatred, fear, and ignorance get the best of you. Keep bettering yourself so you can make the world around you better, for nothing can improve without the brightest, bravest, kindest, and most imaginative individuals rising above the chaos.”
- Cat Winters

"What Might Have Been..."

“Space I can recover. Time, never.” 
-  Napoleon Bonaparte

“Lands can be reconquered, indeed in the course of a battle, a hill or a certain plain might trade hands several times. But missed opportunities? These can never be regained. Moments in time, in culture? They can never be re-made. One can never go back in time to prepare for what they should have prepared for, no one can ever get back critical seconds that were wasted out of fear or ego. Napoleon was brilliant at trading space for time: Sure, you can make these moves, provided you are giving me the time I need to drill my troops, or move them to where I want them to be. Yet in life, most of us are terrible at this. We trade an hour of our life here or afternoon there like it can be bought back with the few dollars we were paid for it. And it is only much, much later, as they are on their deathbeds or when they are looking back on what might have been, that many people realize the awful truth of this quote. Don’t do that. Embrace it now.”
Ryan Holiday
And in secret moments of despair, 
Too late, too late...We think what might have been, 
should have been, and we let it slip away...
Chris De Burgh, 
"Carry Me (Like A Fire In Your Heart)"

"Epic Inflation About to Surge Higher - Interest Rate Increases Coming"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, AM 11/9/21:
"Epic Inflation About to Surge Higher - 
Interest Rate Increases Coming"

"A Final Warning To Humanity From Former Pfizer Chief Scientist Michael Yeadon"

"A Final Warning To Humanity From Former
 Pfizer Chief Scientist Michael Yeadon"
View video here:
Related:

Gregory Mannarino, "Must Watch! A Dose Of Truth Everyone Needs To Hear"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 11/9/21:
"Must Watch! A Dose Of Truth Everyone Needs To Hear"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Used Vehicle Prices Hyperinflate As Inflation Begins To Spiral Out Of Control All Over America"

"Used Vehicle Prices Hyperinflate As Inflation 
Begins To Spiral Out Of Control All Over America"
by Michael Snyder

"It turns out that all of the “doom and gloomers” that were warning that we would eventually experience nightmarish inflation were right after all. In particular, vehicle prices have become exceedingly painful in recent months. Due to a crippling global shortage of computer chips, production of new vehicles is way down, and a lot of that demand has shifted into the used vehicle market. Over the past year, used vehicle prices have escalated at a pace that we have never seen before in our entire history, and things reached a crescendo during the month of October. If you can believe it, used vehicle prices increased by 9.2 percent last month…"The industry’s key index of used vehicle prices jumped another 9.2% over the span of just a month. That puts the index 38% higher than a year ago - compared to “just” 27% for the same stat in September."

If used vehicle prices rose by 9.2 percent for an entire year, that would be really bad. For that to happen in just one month is simply breathtaking. Overall, used vehicle prices are up a total of 38 percent over the past year, and they are now up a total of 59 percent since October 2019. So if you purchased a new vehicle within the past couple of years, it may now be worth more than when it was brand new.

To fully appreciate the insanity that we are seeing in used vehicle prices, I would encourage you to check out this chart. Used vehicle car prices going parabolic (chart courtesy @wolfstreeet ) pic.twitter.com/XZZf56mBeq - ritesh jain (@riteshmjn) November 9, 2021.
If that isn’t “hyperinflation”, what would you call it? I can’t imagine that used vehicle prices will continue to rise at an exponential pace like this, but “experts” have been saying the same thing for months and prices just continue to accelerate.

The funny thing is that used vehicle prices usually go down in October…"October typically sees above average vehicle depreciation and therefore used price declines. This October was the first October in the history of the Manheim Index data, which dates to 1997, to see a non-seasonally adjusted price increase in October."

Of course we are seeing very painful inflation in other sectors of the economy as well. For example, some meat prices are up “about 40% from a year ago”…"Supermarkets say shoppers are buying more store-brand meat products and trading down from beef to less-expensive alternatives such as chicken or pork, after prices for products such as rib-eye climbed about 40% from a year ago, according to research firm IRI. Some consumers are replacing boneless chicken breast with cheaper bone-in chicken, retailers said."

As food prices continue to soar, eventually it will get to a point where big corporations are putting armed guards on food trucks in order to protect deliveries from being hijacked.

The worst supply chain crisis in American history is one of the primary reasons why prices are beginning to spiral out of control. A couple days ago, Joe Biden attempted to explain why this is happening…“It’s backed up because peoples supplies or materials that end up being on our kitchen table or in our in in our our fam, our our our life, guess what? They close those plants because they have COVID.”

What does that even mean? As things get worse and worse, our leaders in Washington seem to have no answers and no solutions. It is being projected that this will be a very cold winter in many areas of the country, and heating bills are expected to be way higher than ever before…"With consumers already dealing with the fastest price increases in decades, another unwelcome uptick is on the horizon: a widely expected increase in winter heating bills.

After plunging during the pandemic as the global economy slowed, energy prices have roared upward. Natural gas, used to heat almost half of U.S. households, has almost doubled in price since this time last year. The price of crude oil - which deeply affects the 10 percent of households that rely on heating oil and propane during the winter - has soared by similarly eye-popping levels. When she was asked about this, this is how Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm responded…"Americans should expect to pay higher prices to heat their homes this winter, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Sunday. "Yeah, this is going to happen,” she told CNN’s Dana Bash. “It will be more expensive this year than last year.”

Things are so bad that they aren’t even trying to put spin on the ridiculously high energy prices any longer. And heating costs are expected to go even higher in the months ahead as we get into the middle of the winter…"Last month, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report warning that the cost of heating oil is expected to rise approximately 43% compared to last year to due to “higher expected fuel costs as well as more consumption of energy due to a colder winter.” Meanwhile, the agency expects propane costs to rise by 54%, natural gas costs to rise by 30% and electricity costs to rise by 6%.

Needless to say, government projections almost always turn out to be way too optimistic. Let’s just hope that the Biden administration’s reckless energy policies don’t result in widespread shortages this winter. One analyst that was interviewed by Fox News is actually warning that if things get bad enough we could actually see Americans “freezing in their homes”… “I hope it doesn’t end like this, but where I see it going is unfortunately the same thing that happened in February in Texas: People freezing in their homes,” he said, adding, “Most of the time when it’s extremely cold or there’s a real bad polar vortex situation, typically it’s pretty cloudy and there’s not a lot of wind.”

Let us pray that things do not get that crazy in the months to come. But without a doubt, this is going to be a difficult winter for millions upon millions of Americans.

During the early stages of 2022, we should expect more inflation, more supply chain problems and more economic chaos. Decades of very foolish decisions are now starting to catch up with us in a major way, and nobody in Washington seems to have a plan that will pull us out of this mess."

“Isochronic Tones: Cognition Enhancer For Clearer and Faster Thinking”

Full screen recommended.
“Isochronic Tones:
Cognition Enhancer For Clearer and Faster Thinking”
by Jason Lewis

“HEADPHONES REQUIRED – Note: As this session stimulates each ear with different frequencies, you will need to use headphones to experience the full effect. Alternative background sounds available on Mp3: Orchestral, Hybrid, World Music, Rain, Brown Noise.

What does this track do? This session stimulates Beta, SMR and Alpha, alternating in 2 minute increments to help keep the user relaxed and engaged. Note: SMR (sensorimotor rhythm) relates to the frequency range between 12 – 15Hz. It’s associated with sensory processing and motor control. Stimulating this can result in relaxed focus and improved attention. This session is meant to speed up the brain while keeping the left hemisphere dominant (good for attention, concentration and reducing emotional response and hyperactivity). ADD and similar disorders are often characterized by “slow-wave” EEG patterns, particularly in the left frontal region. As such, this session stimulates the left brain hemisphere with Beta frequencies and the right with SMR.

Can it be used to help with studying and if so, when should you listen to it? Yes, it can be helpful to use while studying, and if you read through the many comments about this track, you’ll see that many people have successfully used it for studying. You can either listen to it while you are studying, to get your brain into a good mental state when you need it. Or if you are someone that gets a bit distracted by music while studying, listen to it just before you begin.

How Loud Should The Volume Be? There is varying advice and opinions on the impact of volume with brainwave entrainment, with some saying the louder it is the more impact it has. From my own experience, my advice is to play it at a volume level you feel comfortable with. The main thing to consider is that it should be loud enough to hear the repetitive isochronic tones, so you don’t want it so quiet you can hardly hear them. But you also don’t want it so loud that it's uncomfortable for you. Somewhere in the middle is my recommendation. 

Use this session in the morning or afternoon, to train your brain for better cognition, such as clearer and faster thinking. You can either sit somewhere quiet and comfortable with your eyes closed and give your brain a nice workout, or you can also listen to this while doing an activity that requires a boost in concentration, like studying. 

How long should you listen for to get a good effect? It takes around 6 minutes for your brainwaves to fall in step with the tones and become entrained. It then takes time to be guided along the frequency range used in the track. Listening to about half way through is the minimum in my opinion, but 30 minutes is the optimum and preferred length to listen for. 

IMPORTANT RECOMMENDATIONS:
Drink some water – Make sure you are well hydrated before listening to brainwave entrainment.
WHY? Your brain is made up of around 75% water, so it needs plenty of water to function well. When you stimulate your brain in this way, you’re increasing electrical activity and blood flow in the brain and giving your brain a good workout, so it can be a good idea to drink before listening, so that your brain can fire on all cylinders.

It is not recommended to listen to this while driving or operating machinery. 
WHY? Brainwave entrainment involves a process of stimulating your brainwaves and changing your mental state. While this is safe to do and use in normal situations, it can sometimes zone you out during the track, as you focus in on the sound of the tones. This could result in you being distracted temporarily, which is not a good thing while you’re driving or operating machinery. Some people also experience tingling and other sensations from the stimulation. While that might feel quite nice sitting in a comfortable chair at home, it could cause you to be distracted while driving and result in an accident.

It is not recommended to listen to this while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or any mind altering substance.
WHY? When your brain is under the influence of drugs or alcohol it’s not operating to it’s full capacity, and you react differently to stimulation and situations, compared to when you are sober. So as a precaution and because I don’t know how you will react in that situation, I recommend you do not use it in that situation.

Who Should NOT listen to this audio? Those who should not listen to this video/audio include: Those who are prone to or have had seizures, epilepsy, pregnant or wear a pacemaker should NOT listen to this video/audio. 
WHY? There is insufficient research data in this area, so as a precaution, if you are among the categories listed above, I would recommend you consult a doctor or medical professional before listening to this video/audio.”
Look, whether you want to know it or not we're all in the fight 
of our lives, for our lives. I for one will take any edge I can find,
 and you should, too. Be alert, be aware, and stay informed.
This works, period. Try it. Stay strong, folks...
- CP

Monday, November 8, 2021

"Beautiful Relaxing Music for Stress Relief"

Full screen recommended.
Soothing Relaxation,
 "Beautiful Relaxing Music for Stress Relief"
"Beautiful relaxing music for stress relief, composed by Peder B. Helland. This instrumental music ("The Hidden Valley") works well as sleep music, ambient study music, meditation music or relaxation music."
Magnificent...

“Home Delinquencies Pile Up; Your Job Will Be Gone; 50 Million Have Not Paid Off Last Christmas”

Jeremiah Babe, PM 11/8/21:
“Home Delinquencies Pile Up; Your Job Will Be Gone; 
50 Million Have Not Paid Off Last Christmas”

Musical Interlude: Paul Mauriat, "Love is Blue"

Full screen recommended.
Paul Mauriat, "Love is Blue"

"When We Have Time..."

 

“Yesterday is gone. Tomorrow has not yet come.
We have only today. Let us begin.” 
- Mother Theresa
“Life’s funny, chucklehead. You only get one and you don’t want to throw it away. But you can’t really live it at all unless you’re willing to give it up for the things you love. If you’re not at least willing to die for something – something that really matters – in the end you die for nothing.”
- Andrew Klavan