Wednesday, June 23, 2021

"Economic Market Snapshot PM 6/23/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot PM 6/23/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, PM 6/23/21:
"Alert! The Fed. Admits Inflation Will Persist! 
And Another Airline Bailout"
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
June 23rd to 24th, Updated Daily
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts
Commentary, highly recommended:
And now, the End Game...
Oh yeah...

"Never More Frightening..."

"Human beings are perhaps never more frightening than
when they are convinced beyond doubt that they are right."
~ Laurens van der Post
"In 'The Republic', Plato imagines human beings chained for the duration of their lives in an underground cave, knowing nothing but darkness. Their gaze is confined to the cave wall, upon which shadows of the world are thrown. They believe these flickering shadows are reality. If, Plato writes, one of these prisoners is freed and brought into the sunlight, he will suffer great pain. Blinded by the glare, he is unable to seeing anything and longs for the familiar darkness. But eventually his eyes adjust to the light. The illusion of the tiny shadows is obliterated. He confronts the immensity, chaos, and confusion of reality. The world is no longer drawn in simple silhouettes. But he is despised when he returns to the cave. He is unable to see in the dark as he used to. Those who never left the cave ridicule him and swear never to go into the light lest they be blinded as well."
- Chris Hedges

The Daily "Near You?"

Port-of-spain, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Thanks for stopping by!

"Sometimes..."

 

"Life..."

"Life is not what you see, but what you've projected.
It's not what you've felt, but what you've decided.
It's not what you've experienced, but how you've remembered it.
It's not what you've forged, but what you've allowed.
And it's not who's appeared, but who you've summoned.
And this should serve you well until you find what you already have."

- The Universe

Greg Hunter, "Fed Kills the Economy – Michael Pento"

"Fed Kills the Economy – Michael Pento"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Money manager and economist Michael Pento warns to keep your eyes on the Fed. It will be responsible for the next market crash coming this year or next. Just look what happened after the most recent Fed meeting last week. Pento says, “After the June FOMC meeting, the Fed talking about tapering sent stock prices skidding. When they actually announce they are tapering, and when they actually announce a date for tapering that, I believe, will be in August at Jackson Hole, the market will sell off absolutely.”

The Fed has been propping up the markets with massive amounts of printed money since the financial meltdown of 2008. Something has changed, and Pento points out, “Now, the inflation has become such a problem that even the Fed can no longer ignore it. Now, the calculation goes like this: Either the economy will slow significantly on its own to slow the rate of inflation, which will cause the earnings per share to collapse and the stock market will collapse, or the Fed is going to kill it for you. There has been an epiphany, a watershed moment at the Fed, they are all starting to notice the inflation. Even the core rate of inflation has gotten out of hand, and they have to address it. They can’t ignore it, and this is the big watershed change. I cannot stress this enough. The big change is the success of creating 2% inflation, which is now well over double what the Fed wants it to be.” They wanted 2%, and it’s now over 5%. The Fed is going to kill the economy or the economy is going to roll over on its own. I think it’s going to be both.”

What’s coming next? Pento warns, “I think the Fed is going to taper asset purchases just as the monetary cliff kicks in. In that case, watch out. They are losing control of the monetary system. They are losing control of inflation. They are losing control of asset prices. They are losing control of the fiat currency system. They are losing control of everything.”

In closing, Pento says, “We are going to go through iterations of inflation and then rapid and devastating deflation. And with each iteration, the bubble gets bigger and the amount of debt grows exponentially. Do we have one more left or two more left? I don’t know, but I am calling for a rapid and violent deflationary bust of asset prices probably early in 2022. At some point, bond market yields spike out of control. That is not happening yet. After that, you are going to see a problem with helicopter money like we have never seen before and inflation like we have never seen before.”

Pento also says he’s long term bullish on gold and short term bullish on the dollar, too. He explains in detail in the 55 minute interview."

"Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with economist and 
money manager Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies."

"How to Remember You're Alive"

"How to Remember You're Alive"
by David Cain

"One way to appreciate virtually any moment of your life is to pretend that the whole thing is already over. Your life came and went a long time ago, but for some reason you’ve just been sent back to this random moment, here in this office chair, or in line at Home Depot.

It isn’t clear why you’ve been sent back. Maybe it was a cosmic accounting error, or a boon from a playful God. All you know is that you’re here again, walking the earth, having been inexplicably returned to the temporary and mysterious state of Being Alive.

Any moment will do for this experiment. In fact, the more mundane the moment, the more profound the effect. You might find yourself, in this instance, pushing a cart through the frozen foods aisle. Or maybe you’re seated in front of a bowl of cereal at the speckled Formica breakfast table you bought on Craigslist. Or you’re carrying a bag of recycling down the back stairwell on a muggy night. It’s definitely your life though, and at least for now, you get to be alive again.

When you view life as something you’re returning to — rather than something that has never not been happening — it feels like the gift it perhaps always should. It’s just so damn interesting to be alive and experiencing things, and choosing what to do during those experiences.

Seeing life as the curious and rare condition it is gives even ordinary events the character of a brilliant film. An oblong rectangle of sunlight on the table flutters with the shadows of leaves. While you fold laundry, your phone lights up: a friend texting you a cheesy pun she knows you will appreciate. A short-lived party of bubbles appears and disappears when you fill a glass of water from the tap. A thin mist pours from the open freezer display onto your sandaled feet. It’s all spectacular, just because it’s happening, and once it’s over you would greatly miss it if you could. So why not miss it now? Or at least understand why you would.

The state of Being Alive also comes with a rich and distinct sense of possibility. You can make any number of interesting things happen by sheer will. You can scrawl sentences on a scrap of paper that will trigger certain thoughts later, for you or someone else. You can touch a few buttons on your phone and be speaking to any of a hundred people you know, and whatever is said would change each other’s day, or life, in some way. You could clean the house this afternoon, or leave it messy, and each option would give a different shape to the evening.

Can you believe that this condition – of being in the world, of feeling stuff and doing stuff - was once happening all the time? Remember being able to open windows and pet dogs and wash your hands in warm water? What an amazing time that was. No matter what happened, whether life was decidedly going “well” or not, it was always so eventful, and you got to decide what to do in each moment of it.

It’s all over, of course, which is too bad. You didn’t realize at the time how small a window it was, and you can’t believe you spent a lot of it complaining. However, for right now at least, for some reason, you’re back. You have at least this moment to enjoy being alive. There may be more coming afterward, but you can’t count on that. Not this time anyway.

Except in moments of extreme emotional tilt, this exercise always seems to work. I can almost always, when I think of it, choose to see the current moment as a certain kind of an unexpected gift - a long-awaited return to the most interesting thing ever, which is being alive.

It works because if it were true - you really had just been sent back to the realm of the living - chances are you really would think it’s unutterably great to be here, even if you didn’t the first time. By mentally jumping out of life and then back in, it becomes clear that the experience of being alive really is a profoundly interesting thing, and we can live with an ongoing awareness of that. That few seconds of contemplation reframes virtually any moment as the best thing that can happen: you, enjoying a rich pocket of Being Alive Right Now, amidst a vast universe that is almost entirely not that.

At least, it becomes interesting when you’re aware that there’s no reason any of this should necessarily be the case. There will not always be things happening. You will not always have the ability to experience the world and respond how you please. But - by the grace of whoever - you do right now. Whatever the metaphysics of it really is, the point is that the window is small, and if you’re in it right now, that should probably be regarded as a profoundly lucky thing, whether it’s your first time here or you’ve been sent back for another tour.

However, because the window is open continuously until it’s closed for good, it’s hard to feel the luckiness of being alive while life is still happening. This is one way to contact that sense of good fortune reliably - see the moment as an inexplicable return to the wild and spectacular condition of Being Alive, which was once so abundant you forgot to appreciate it. This experience you’re having right now, of being here in a body, experiencing the world and choosing how to respond - is gone, and by the Law of Joni Mitchell, you only now know what you had. But by some unbelievable stroke of luck, here it is again."

"How It Really, Crazily, Is"

 

The Poet: Henry Austin Dobson, “The Paradox Of Time”

“The Paradox Of Time”

“Time goes, you say? Ah no! 
Alas, Time stays, we go; 
Or else, were this not so, 
What need to chain the hours, 
For Youth were always ours? 

Time goes, you say? – ah no! 
Ours is the eyes’ deceit 
Of men whose flying feet 
Lead through some landscape low; 
We pass, and think we see 
The earth’s fixed surface flee - 
Alas, Time stays, – we go! 

Once in the days of old, 
Your locks were curling gold, 
And mine had shamed the crow. 
Now, in the self-same stage, 
We’ve reached the silver age; 
Time goes, you say? – ah no! 

Once, when my voice was strong, 
I filled the woods with song 
To praise your ‘rose’ and ‘snow’; 
My bird, that sang, is dead; 
Where are your roses fled? 
Alas, Time stays, – we go! 

See, in what traversed ways, 
What backward Fate delays 
The hopes we used to know; 
Where are our old desires? 
Ah, where those vanished fires? 
Time goes, you say? – ah no! 

How far, how far, O Sweet, 
The past behind our feet 
Lies in the even-glow! 
Now, on the forward way, 
Let us fold hands, and pray; 
Alas, Time stays, – we go!”

- Henry Austin Dobson
“Time passes in moments. Moments which, rushing past, define the path of a life, just as surely as they lead towards its end. How rarely do we stop to examine that path, to see the reasons why all things happen? To consider whether the path we take in life is our own making, or simply one into which we drift with eyes closed? But what if we could stop, pause to take stock of each precious moment before it passes? Might we then see the endless forks in the road that have shaped a life? And, seeing those choices, choose another path?”
- Gillian Anderson as Dana Scully, “The X-Files”
The Alan Parsons Project, "Time"

"Why Are Large Numbers Of Birds Suddenly Dropping Dead In Multiple U.S. States?"

"Why Are Large Numbers Of Birds Suddenly 
Dropping Dead In Multiple U.S. States?"
by Michael Snyder

"As if we didn’t have enough weird things going on, now birds are suddenly dropping dead in large numbers all across the eastern half of the country. Before they die, a lot of these birds are exhibiting very strange symptoms. Experts are telling us that in many cases birds are developing “crusty or puffy eyes”, and often they appear to go completely blind. In addition, quite a few of these dying birds lose their ability to stay balanced, and we are being told that some even seem to be having “seizures”. If scientists understood what was causing this to happen, that would be one thing. But at this point they have no idea why this is taking place, and that is quite alarming.

So far, confirmed incidents of this strange phenomenon have been documented in Washington D.C., Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana. Could it be possible that we are dealing with a “mystery disease” that started in one state and that has now spread to other surrounding states? Or is something else going on here?

We are being told that “blue jays, common grackles and European starlings” are the most common birds that are being affected. But whatever is happening is not just limited to one species of birds, and I think that should be a red flag.

If our best experts even had a decent working theory about why so many birds are dying, I probably would not have written this article. But at this point they are openly admitting that they have absolutely no idea why so many birds are suddenly dropping dead… “We’re experiencing an unusual amount of bird mortality this year,” said Kate Slankard, an avian biologist with the Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources. “We have yet to figure out what the problem is. The condition seems to be pretty deadly.”

In Kentucky, the bird deaths seem to have begun in late May. The following comes directly from the official website of the Kentucky Department of Fish & Wildlife Resources… "In late May, the Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources began receiving reports of sick and dying birds with eye swelling and crusty discharge, as well as neurological signs. Wildlife agencies in Indiana, Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia have reported similar problems.

State wildlife agencies are working with diagnostic laboratories to investigate the cause of mortality. Kentucky Fish and Wildlife has sent more than 20 samples for lab testing to the Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study at the University of Georgia. More results are pending, but no definitive cause of death has been identified at this time."

After testing 20 samples, they still have no idea what is going on. According to Slankard, “hundreds of birds” in her state have now become victims… “They’ll just sit still, often kind of shaking,” Slankard said. “It’s pretty safe to say that hundreds of birds in the state have had this problem.” But of course the truth is that we have no way of knowing how many birds have actually been affected. It could be thousands of birds in the state. It could be hundreds of thousands. We just don’t know, and Kentucky is just one of the states that has been hit.

In Indiana, authorities tested for avian flu and West Nile virus, but those tests came back negative… "Indiana wildlife officials said there have been suspicious deaths of blue jays, robins, northern cardinals and brown-headed cowbirds in five counties. James Brindle, spokesman for the state’s Department of Natural Resources, said birds there have tested negative for avian influenza and West Nile virus."

One theory that is floating around is that these birds are ingesting large amounts of pesticides because of all the cicadas that they are eating. Some experts are flatly dismissing that theory because “the disease has also appeared in states where cicadas are not present”. But how can they be so sure that it is a disease if they have absolutely no idea why this is happening?

I don’t think that we should jump to any conclusions that are not backed up by science. Obviously a lot more testing needs to be done. If it does turn out to be a disease that is causing this, is it a disease that can also spread to humans? Moving forward, that could be one of the most important questions that needs to be answered. Hopefully we can get some solid answers, because this is not the first time something like this has happened. Back in September, one expert said that it appeared that “hundreds of thousands” of birds were dropping dead in New Mexico…

"Wildlife experts in New Mexico say birds in the region are dropping dead in alarming numbers, potentially in the “hundreds of thousands.” “It appears to be an unprecedented and a very large number,” Martha Desmond, a professor at New Mexico State University’s department of fish, wildlife, and conservation ecology, told NBC’s Albuquerque affiliate KOB."

But whatever was causing those deaths to happen in New Mexico seems to have stopped. Is there any connection between that event and the deaths that are happening in the eastern half of the country now? I wish that I had the answer to that question.

We live at a time when pesticides, high technology and other forms of human activity are having a greater impact on birds and animals than ever before. But we have also entered an era when I believe that great pestilences are going to become very common. Obviously something is killing all those birds, and hopefully scientists will have something solid to tell us very soon. With each passing day, our world is getting crazier, and so much is going wrong all around us. Many are hoping that 2020 and 2021 will just turn out to be anomalies, but I am entirely convinced that they are just the very small tip of a very large iceberg."

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/23/21: "Important Updates"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/23/21:
"Important Updates: 
Stock Market, Gold, Silver, Crypto, Dollar, Crude, MORE"

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

"Shortage Of Everything Is Here! Prices Are Soaring: Prepare Yourself For Panic And Chaos!"

Full screen recommended.
"Shortage Of Everything Is Here! Prices Are Soaring: 
Prepare Yourself For Panic And Chaos!"
by Epic Economist

"If 2020 was the year the health crisis tumbled the economy, 2021 is the year of stressed supply chains, widespread shortages, and rampant inflation. Most of the U.S. industries are still feeling the cascading effect of global supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, soaring freight costs, a computer chip shortage, and now an acute labor shortage is threatening to hold back the economic recovery for much longer than expected. From cyberattacks to extreme weather to panic buying, our supply chains have experienced one major challenge after the other. But while inventories have been at all-time lows, pent-up demand and skyrocketing container prices are pushing consumer prices to sky-highs. That's why you should start stocking up on food supplies right now because experts are alerting that prices are about to explode.

Economists have been warning that grocers will have no hesitation about passing on those increased costs to consumers. In fact, grocery stores are not only passing on the bill of rising commodity and freight prices to shoppers but also testing their limits to see how much they can send prices up before demand starts cooling and they effectively start losing money. Consumer prices for food increased by 2.2% in May, compared to the same time in 2020. The price of pork, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and milk, all jumped between 1.9% and 9%. Higher milk prices and a shortage of other ingredients and supplies are affecting even Starbucks, making it hard for consumers to get their favorite drink. In the company's app, the first thing you see is a pop-up that reads, “Sorry for the inconvenience, some items are temporarily unavailable". Just like many other chains, the company is having to remove some products from the menu because prices are just too high to turn a profit.

But that’s just one sign of how deep this crisis is getting. Supply chain problems are affecting almost every industry from Starbucks to cars to pretty much every sector you can think of. And adding transportation issues to product shortages and soaring demand, the result is very painful inflation for American consumers. As food prices continue to surge, beef and pork have been leading the rise. Pork prices jumped 2.6 percent in the month of April and 4.8 percent from a year ago, adjusting for seasonality. While beef and veal prices went up by 3.3 percent from a year ago, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.

After a cyberattack shut down one of the biggest meat processing plants in the U.S., the decline in meat production dropped to the lowest level recorded since 1996, and since meat and pork production have been dwindling since last year, and stockpiles in cold storages have significantly shrunk, meat shortages might get a whole lot worse this summer as demand has already increased 7.7 percent this year. While retailers are running out of a wide range of products, from bicycles to hot tubs and most notably - since they weigh so heavily in retail sales - new and used vehicles, this mess is still showing up on inventories. A recent report released by the Census Bureau exposed that inventories at retailers, from grocery stores to new and used vehicle dealers, plunged to $602 billion in April, marking the lowest inventory-sales ratio in the history of data going back to 1992.

And if you think things might improve throughout the year and inventories might get restocked, according to meteorologists an above-average hurricane season is likely to worsen U.S. supply chain woes this year. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company, says that there will be at least 19 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes in the outlook. However, as Convoy's Terrazas pointed out, hurricanes won't be the only disasters that will affect supply lines this summer. "We're obviously watching all kinds of weather. It's not just hurricane season, but it's also shaping up to be a pretty active Western drought and wildfire season. Basically, the Western half of the United States is in severe drought at this point already," he said.

For that reason, the best way to fight against such catastrophic shortages and insane price hikes is to prepare in advance for potential disruptions, especially when natural disasters are looming. "The sooner you get your bottled water and your canned food needs in your garage or in your basement, you're going to be prepared for whenever it strikes and put less stress on supply chains through last-minute shopping," Terrazas concluded. So get your emergency supplies ready before a threat arises and, of course, before they become too expensive. We should be prepared for the perfect storm that is coming because once it hits there's going to be a mad rush all over the country."

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal: Stock Market Crash, The Bankster's Gang Gamble"

Gerald Celente,
"Trends Journal: Stock Market Crash, 
The Bankster's Gang Gamble"

“California Bailout; The Market Must Crash; Gambling On Ponzi themes; Greed Is A Killer”

Jeremiah Babe, PM 6/22/21:
“California Bailout; The Market Must Crash; 
Gambling On Ponzi Schemes; Greed Is A Killer”

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

Full screen recommended.
2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

“Pamela and Randy Copus are the duo known as 2002. Randy Copus plays piano, electric cello, guitar, bass and keyboards. Pamela Copus plays flutes, harp, keyboards and a wind instrument called a WX5. Both musicians also provide all of the vocals on their albums, recording their voices many, many times and layering them to create a "virtual choir" with a celestial, angelic quality.”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“This colorful skyscape features the dusty, reddish glow of Sharpless catalog emission region Sh2-155, the Cave Nebula. About 2,400 light-years away, the scene lies along the plane of our Milky Way Galaxy toward the royal northern constellation of Cepheus.
 
Astronomical explorations of the region reveal that it has formed at the boundary of the massive Cepheus B molecular cloud and the hot, young, blue stars of the Cepheus OB 3 association. The bright rim of ionized hydrogen gas is energized by the radiation from the hot stars, dominated by the bright blue O-type star above picture center. Radiation driven ionization fronts are likely triggering collapsing cores and new star formation within. Appropriately sized for a stellar nursery, the cosmic cave is over 10 light-years across.”

"I Am That..."

 

Chet Raymo, “Trying To Be Good”

“Trying To Be Good”
by Chet Raymo

“A few lines from Mary Oliver's poem "Wild Geese":

    "You do not have to be good.
    You do not have to walk on your knees
    for a hundred miles through the desert, repenting.
    You only have to let the soft animal of your body
    love what it loves."

"I've quoted these lines before, if not here, then elsewhere. When I first read them back in the late 80s, they resonated with what I felt at the time. I had spent part of my earliest adulthood walking on my knees, both literally and metaphorically, seeking to tame what I took to be the animal within. Saint Augustine was whispering in my ear, and Bernanos' gloomy country priest walked at my side. I was ready to follow Thomas Merton into the desert; indeed, I once took myself briefly to the monastery at Gethsemane, Kentucky, where Merton was in residence.

That was a journey of more than a hundred miles, and I was busy repenting, although of what I don't know.

As I read those lines from Mary Oliver in middle age, I had long been cultivating the "soft animal" within, immersing myself in the is-ness of things, the flesh and blood, the gorgeously sensual. No more walking on my knees, repenting. I walked proudly upright, with my sketchbook and my watercolors, my binoculars and my magnifier, sniffing the world like an animal on the prowl. I was letting my body learn to "love what it loves." Those were the years I wrote "The Soul of the Night" and "Honey From Stone" - the most intensely creative years of my life. The world offered itself to my imagination, if I may borrow another line from "Wild Geese."

And now, another half-lifetime has passed. The soft animal dozes, the body seeks repose. And I think of the first line quoted above: "You do not have to be good." What could the poet have possibly meant by that? Of course one has to be good. In a cell at Gethsemane or on the bridge over Queset Brook, one has to be good. And so one tries, one tries. The soft animal of the body that nature has contrived for us is not fine-tuned for goodness.”
“Wild Geese”

"You do not have to be good.
You do not have to walk on your knees
for a hundred miles through the desert repenting.
You only have to let the soft animal of your body
love what it loves.
Tell me about despair, yours, and I will tell you mine.
Meanwhile the world goes on.
Meanwhile the sun and the clear pebbles of the rain
are moving across the landscapes,
over the prairies and the deep trees,
the mountains and the rivers.
Meanwhile the wild geese, high in the clean blue air,
are heading home again.
Whoever you are, no matter how lonely,
the world offers itself to your imagination,
calls to you like the wild geese, harsh and exciting
over and over announcing your place
in the family of things."

- Mary Oliver

The Daily "Near You?"

Mound, Minnesota, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Gregory Mannarino, PM 6/22/21: "The Fed. Again Promises To Buy It All. "Not Concerned" About Inflation"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 6/22/21:
"The Fed. Again Promises To Buy It All. 
"Not Concerned" About Inflation"

"On The Mean Streets Of America, The Gun Battles Never Seem To End…"

"On The Mean Streets Of America, 
The Gun Battles Never Seem To End…"
by Michael Snyder

"Did you know that 296 mass shootings have happened in the United States this year? Needless to say, the vast majority of the mass shootings are taking place in our core urban areas, and at this point many of our largest cities are becoming open war zones. We desperately need more law enforcement officers on the streets, and as I wrote about yesterday, even some of our most liberal cities are now racing to “re-fund” the police. Crime rates spiked dramatically all over the nation in 2020, and they are skyrocketing even higher in 2021. But if you think that things have been bad so far, just wait, because we are being warned that “a bloody summer” is on the way…

“The spike in homicides and nonfatal shootings is extremely alarming,” said Miami Police Chief Art Acevedo, who recently left the Houston Police Department and leads the Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of law enforcement executives. “One of the reasons we talk about a bloody summer ahead for our country is because it’s already been a very bloody year, a very deadly year for Americans.”

There is usually more violent crime when the weather is warmer, and we have definitely seen that so far here in the month of June.

Mass shootings are considered to be incidents in which at least four people are wounded, and during this past weekend we witnessed mass shootings in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, Minnesota, Texas and California. They are happening with such frequency now that each one barely makes a blip in the news before the next one happens.

To me, the most disturbing incident during the weekend took place in Chicago… "And in another deadly shooting in the city on Saturday night, two individuals were attacked by a group of men after a crash took place at Humboldt Park, prompting a large crowd to surround Gyovanny Arzuaga’s vehicle. He and his girlfriend, Yasmin Perez, were attending a Puerto Rican People’s Day parade in the park, Newsweek reported, when a group of two or three gunmen ambushed them and opened fire. A video of the incident, posted to Twitter, purportedly shows Arzuaga surrounded by a group of men, who leave him lying unresponsive on the ground."

Words cannot really convey the true horror of that attack. If you have not seen the video footage yet, you can watch it right here. When I first watched it, I could hardly believe what I was seeing. There has always been violence in our streets, but nothing like this. What in the world is happening to our country?

Overall, the number of shootings in the city of Chicago is up 18 percent so far this year. I know that sounds bad, but other major cities are seeing much larger spikes. In Philadelphia, the number of shootings is up 27 percent so far this year. It is supposed to be “the city of brotherly love”, but it is rapidly becoming one of the most dangerous places in America.

In Atlanta, the number of shootings is up 40 percent so far this year. But at least the Hawks are doing well, right?

In Los Angeles, the number of shootings is up 51 percent so far this year. Crime is now the number one political issue in the L.A. area, and even tourist areas such as Venice Beach are being totally trashed.

In New York City, the number of shootings is up 64 percent so far this year. As I discussed yesterday, in the Big Apple running gun battles even happen during broad daylight these days.

In Minneapolis, the number of shootings is up 90 percent so far this year. I spent a lot of time in Minneapolis growing up, because I have a lot of relatives in the area. I can’t believe how far that once beautiful city has now fallen. But there is one major city that even has Minneapolis beat.

In Portland, the number of shootings is up 126 percent so far this year. Everywhere you look, there is chaos and violence, and what we have been through so far is just the beginning. It is almost as if a significant percentage of the population has gone completely and totally nuts over the past couple of years. In this sort of an environment, you never know what some crazy person might do. Here is just one example… "A Bel Air homeowner is in shock after coming face to face with a violent naked man who broke into his house and killed the family pets. Mat Sabz was home alone Thursday afternoon when his wife called to tell him that security cameras showed a naked man breaking into their home."

You have got to be really sick to want to kill somebody’s pets. Sadly, right now there are vast numbers of really sick people running around out there, and many of them would kill you and your family without even thinking twice about it.

Up to this point in 2021, a total of 20,729 Americans have died as a result of gun violence, and by the time most of you read this article that number will inevitably be even higher. Ironically, many of the cities that have the strictest gun laws also have some of the highest murder rates.

In Chicago, the number of gang members is more than ten times greater than the number of law enforcement officers, and that is causing enormous problems. The politicians can pass as many laws as they want, but violent criminals are going to remain heavily armed and they are going to retain the upper hand for the foreseeable future.

Of course Chicago is far from alone. Violent criminals are gaining the upper hand in communities all over the country, and meanwhile police officers are resigning in record numbers from coast to coast after being relentlessly demonized by the mainstream media for months on end.

Our society really is coming apart at the seams all around us. Unfortunately, most Americans still do not understand what is happening. Most Americans still assume that things will eventually “return to normal”, but a “return to normal” is simply not in the cards."

Dan, IAllegedly, AM 6/22/21: "Michael Burry is Shorting Cryptos and Meme Stocks - Is it over?"

Full Screen Recommended
Dan, IAllegedly, AM 6/22/21:
"Michael Burry is Shorting Cryptos and Meme Stocks - Is it over?"

"How It Really Is"

The wheel's turning but the hamster is dead...

"Five-Year Forecast"

"Five-Year Forecast"
by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "Midsummer has arrived! Sunday was the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere. The farther north you are, the longer the day. Here, it was light until almost 11 p.m. We went over to the little seaside town of Ardmore, where the church has reopened for the summer season.

“It’s Father’s Day,” explained the white-haired priest. “I scarcely ever saw my father until I was 9 years old. It was World War II, and he was in the Royal Air Force (RAF). When he came back to Ireland… he brought his ration of chocolate with him. That endeared him to me forever. It was a long trip back then, from London to Ardmore. You had to cross England by train, take the boat across the Irish Sea, and then take the train down from Dublin. I found out later that part of the reason I saw so little of him was that he became violently seasick and hated the trip. Nowadays, we would just get on a plane.”

Out on the streets of Ardmore, flowers were in bloom everywhere… even bursting out of the cold, stone walls. Lovers strolled arm in arm. Birds sang in the trees.

Irish Summer: But this morning, cold winds blow in off the Atlantic. Clouds scoot over the treetops. The temperature will barely make it into the 60s today. “In Ireland, you can’t wait for a real summer; you have to take what you can get,” says a neighbor. And so, people go about in shorts and t-shirts… appearing not to notice the chilly winds. Families go to the beach… and wrap themselves in towels to keep from freezing. The public pools are open, where children take swimming lessons and turn purple. Yes, it’s an Irish summer… and it is delightful.

FOMO:  But we must turn our attention to the world of money… where two dark clouds hang over the summer fun. First, with stocks at/near all-time highs, there is the threat of a major selloff in the markets. Michael Burry, hero of the mortgage bubble crisis, says it will be the “mother of all crashes.” Business Insider is on the story: “All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes,” the investor tweeted. “When crypto falls from trillions, or meme stocks fall from tens of billions, #MainStreet losses will approach the size of countries.”

Burry added that people’s fear of missing out has propelled asset prices to unsustainable levels. “#FOMO Parabolas don’t resolve sideways,” he cautioned. Nope. Prices don’t go up, like a baseball off a bat… and just stay in the air. Gravity brings them back down to Earth. The higher they fly… the further they fall.

Dark Cloud: But wait… What about the other dark cloud – inflation? Won’t it keep them aloft? Won’t the Federal Reserve’s money-printing guarantee higher stock prices? And shouldn’t a prudent investor stick with stocks, at least until the inflationary threat is over?

Earlier this month, we found out that inflation in the U.S., officially, is running over 5% – for only the second time in 30 years. If they calculated it the way they did in the 1980s, it would be over 10%. Tim Congdon is one of Britain’s leading economists. Last week, he released a report, 'Where Does U.S. Inflation Go From Here?', in which he concluded: "The annual rate of U.S. consumer inflation between now and end-2022 will typically run in the 5%–10% band."

Like a tornado, inflation picks up everything in its path, sends it swirling high into the air… and leaves the ground littered with debris once it has gone. It destroys markets, economies, governments, and whole societies. And with such a funnel cloud approaching, you’d think the feds would want to head for a storm shelter. Instead, they’re spreading out a picnic blanket and spraying on the insect repellent. The Fed is continuing its $120 billion per month money-printing.

The “dot plot” of anticipated rate increases shows none are likely, neither this year nor next, with two expected in 2023. And Senate Democrats are pushing ahead with plans for a $6 trillion “go it alone” spending extravaganza. The EZ money will keep coming, in other words. And all of this money will eventually show up in prices. Where else could it go?

Five-Year Forecast: But in the meantime, as the twister draws closer, investors will become unsettled. A study by economists at investment research firm Gavekal shows that rising inflation levels means falling stock market gains: "For the last 130 years (the period for which we have data both for U.S. prices and for the U.S. stock market), all the excess return on U.S. equities relative to cash have been realized during periods of decelerating inflation. The excess returns during periods of accelerating inflation have been a robust zero."

They go on to say that since World War II, every major bear market (with a drop of 50% or more) has come during a time when consumer price increases are speeding up. Which should investors fear – a crash or inflation? The answer is… both.

And herewith our simple Five-Year Forecast: The feds will inflate. The stock market will deflate. And then… the feds will inflate even more… until the inflation tornado has made a wreck out of everything."

"There Are Simply No Answers..."

“How is one to live a moral and compassionate existence when one is fully aware of the blood, the horror inherent in life, when one finds darkness not only in one’s culture but within oneself? If there is a stage at which an individual life becomes truly adult, it must be when one grasps the irony in its unfolding and accepts responsibility for a life lived in the midst of such paradox. One must live in the middle of contradiction, because if all contradiction were eliminated at once life would collapse. There are simply no answers to some of the great pressing questions. You continue to live them out, making your life a worthy expression of leaning into the light.”
- Barry Lopez

"Complain But Remain"

"Complain But Remain"
by Jeff Thomas

"All countries have a “shelf-life” of sorts. Generally, they begin when an old, top-heavy government collapses from its own weight. The end of the old regime is characterized by civil unrest, revolution, secession, economic collapse or some combination of these conditions. The new country generally has minimal government and little or nothing in the way of entitlements. It’s “sink or swim” for the people, and the recovery generally begins when a portion of the population rolls up its sleeves and creates an economy based upon production.

Over time, often a century or more, the population gets better at production and the country becomes wealthier. Along the way, whatever limited government existed has done all it could to expand itself. Governments, by their very nature, are parasites, living off the productive class, and eventually that parasite has the power to dominate those who produce, by promising largesse to those on the lower levels – who are in every society, the majority of voters.

This pattern has been followed for millennia. A nation establishes its freedom; it begins a productive economy; it develops wealth; it is taken over by a parasitical government; it goes into decline; it collapses, and the cycle begins anew. At any point in history, there are always countries at every stage of this pattern.

Most of us have no problem in comprehending the initial stages, but, when the decline begins, it’s human nature to adopt the vain hope that the pattern will somehow reverse itself – that the snowball that’s rolling downhill ever more rapidly will somehow screech to a halt and roll back up the hill. It never happens.

The worst stage, of course, is the inevitable collapse, and the stage when the greatest number of people are in the greatest level of denial is just prior to the collapse. Only a few years before a collapse, most people in a country are still saying that it will all work out “somehow.” However, as the collapse gets closer, an increasing number of people start to say, “This is not going to work out. This is going to be very bad.” 

And then, something quite surprising occurs. The vast majority of the individuals who see a dark future approaching them, just wait for the collapse to happen. They complain but remain. Some of them buy a few cases of canned goods and store them in the cellar. Some buy weaponry. Some purchase some gold or silver in preparation for a monetary collapse. Each of these preparations is likely to soften the blow of a systemic collapse. And each brings a level of comfort to the individual who recognizes that his country is reaching its sell-by date.

The trouble is, this comfort is much like driving a car whose brakes are failing. You realize that the car will soon go off the cliff but somehow take comfort in the fact that the car has an air bag. Of course, it would be more costly and certainly much more inconvenient to have thought ahead and have bought a newer, safer car, yet very, very few people actually take that step prior to a national collapse.

Over the decades, I’ve routinely predicted market crashes and depressed economic periods before they occurred. This is not something that requires a crystal ball. The ability to see dramatic change coming is largely a question of three factors: study history, pay attention to unfolding events and be honest with yourself as to what those events indicate for the future.

Prior to each economic downturn, I’ve warned clients, partners, friends and associates as to what I saw coming. The reaction in each case was the same: only about ten percent actually bothered to listen to and remember the warnings. The others simply tuned it out. Of the ten percent that listened, only about ten percent of that number actually prepared themselves for a possible change. Therefore, only about one percent actually were prepared when the change arrived on their doorstep and, so, were minimally affected.

Interestingly, whenever a negative economic shift occurred, the ninety percent who had tuned out the warning, almost invariably commented afterward, “No one could have seen this coming.” When reminded that they had been warned, they uniformly insisted that they’d never received any such warning. They were not being untruthful – they simply had never taken the information on-board in the first instance and therefore had no recollection of it. Since this was the case, these same individuals (the ninety percent) learned nothing from the downturn and they, almost to a man, repeated the same mistake when the next negative event occurred.

But, today, we’re approaching the mother of all economic collapses – one for the record books. Never have the mistakes made by the world’s governments been so extreme. Never have the debt levels that cause economic collapses been so irreversible. And so, as we get closer to the first of the economic dominoes that will fall, an increasing number of people are experiencing an inexplicable bad feeling in the pit of their stomachs. They recognize that something quite bad will soon befall them but don’t fully understand it.

Based upon past experience, my estimation is that only one in ten will recognize that trouble is headed their way and only one in that ten will actually take positive action to geographically remove himself from ground-zero in anticipation.

The image above tells us that a building has been condemned. As the notice states, it’s dangerous and unsafe. The notice is printed on brightly colored paper, in case we’re still not paying attention. Unfortunately, economic collapses do not come with such helpful notices. We must seek our own information and draw our own conclusions. That does not, however, mean that a collapse won’t happen. It only means that we must be more diligent if we’re to ensure that we’re well-away when a collapse does come.

For many years, I’ve been advising people on internationalization – the practice of diversifying oneself economically and physically in order to minimize the likelihood of becoming a casualty of any one jurisdiction and its negative developments. In the last year, as the collapse has been getting nearer, I’ve been seeing an increasing number of people who state that they’re not sure exactly what’s going to happen, but they realize that they’d better begin to prepare to remove themselves and their families from the growing threat.

Of these, once again, ninety percent are those whom I describe as the “complain but remain” group – those who have the visceral understanding that they’re soon to become collateral damage – those who ask for advice as to what they can do about it – yet, in the end, do less than what’s necessary to remove themselves from impending danger.

It’s clear misguided socialist ideas are running rampant in the US. All signs point to this trend accelerating until it reaches a crisis… one unlike anything we’ve seen before. At present, it’s still possible to take action. All that’s necessary is to overcome inertia."

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/22/21: "Be Ready! Today Will Be A Market fReaK ShoW! Here's Why"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/22/21:
"Be Ready! Today Will Be A Market fReaK ShoW! Here's Why"

Monday, June 21, 2021

"Michael Burry Warns America: Mother of All Crashes Is Coming"

Full screen recommended.
"Michael Burry Warns America:
 Mother of All Crashes Is Coming"
by Epic Economist, PM 6/21/21

"It's never easy to predict when a stock market crash will occur. But one thing is certain: the next stock market crash is unavoidable - because every boom leads to a burst. Recently, several market veterans and financial analysts have been sounding the alarm for a major correction, arguing that valuations have hit extreme levels. Many of them are currently saying that inflationary pressures will be the cause of the next crash and, unlike any of the previous situations, inflation won't cause mere "temporary" disruptions on the market's outlook. As the inflation crisis has started to spiral out of control, they now worry we're now headed to something much worse: An epic inflationary collapse that will pop all asset bubbles. This means today's speculative and highly-leveraged stock market has its days counted and literally everyone who predicted previous crashes is warning that the next one may arrive sooner than most people think.

The combination of massive government debt, asset bubbles, and bad demographic trends has created a weakness in financial markets. The head of Scion Asset Management, Michael Burry, who became famous after his winning bet against mortgages was featured in the movie “The Big Short,” issued another series of tweets warning investors about losses in “the size of countries” in case crypto and meme stocks sharply decline. He alerted that those who are now buying meme stocks and cryptocurrencies are signing up for devastating losses. And everything Burry says is closely watched by the meme-stock crowd that follows him on Twitter ever since he took a bullish position on the video-game retailer GameStop in 2019 - which helped to set the stage of the epic stock market frenzy led by retail investors earlier this year. However, his views about those stocks have changed and evolved into warnings about dangers in the market.

“If I put $GME on your radar, and you did well, I’m genuinely happy for you,” he wrote. “However, what is going on now - there should be legal and regulatory repercussions. This is unnatural, insane, and dangerous". "All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes," the investor warned in a recent tweet. "When crypto falls from trillions, or meme stocks fall from tens of billions, #MainStreet losses will approach the size of countries". Moreover, the investor also sounded the alarm for all crypto fans who have been recklessly borrowing just to purchase their favorite coins. "The problem with #Crypto, as in most things, is the leverage. If you don't know how much leverage is in crypto, you don't know anything about crypto," he tweeted. Burry isn’t alone in his recent warnings about the imbalances in the stock market.

Warren Buffett, Harry Dent, JohnHussman, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Rogers, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Yusko, and many others, are also calling for a sizable crash. Even Bank of America said earlier this year that the S&P 500 would likely return to an average of 2% given how high valuations already were at that point. Another recent forecast came from no one less than the renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner. In a recent interview with USAWatchDog's Greg Hunter, when asked how low could the market go, Nenner said: “20,000 or lower is my call". Spooked, Hunter asked Nenner if he honestly thought the market could get cut in half, to which Nenner promptly replied “yes.”

Evidently, the catalyst for the next crash will be inflation. Although the Federal Reserve keeps insisting that inflation is “transitory”, Nenner maintains that since it is already here, it will only get much worse. In the face of rising prices across a wide range of goods and services, it feels like we already are witnessing the impacts of inflation on a daily basis. But what all of those experts have been trying to put in between the lines is that what we're going through right now, even though it is incredibly overwhelming, it is just a taste of what is coming next. The only question remaining is at what point does the mounting risk of a crash become too unbearable? And it seems that many investors are willing to learn the answer the hard way."

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Endless Horizon"

Full screen recommended.
Deuter, "Endless Horizon"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“These three bright nebulae are often featured in telescopic tours of the constellation Sagittarius and the crowded starfields of the central Milky Way. In fact, 18th century cosmic tourist Charles Messier cataloged two of them; M8, the large nebula left of center, and colorful M20 on the right. The third, NGC 6559, is above M8, separated from the larger nebula by a dark dust lane. All three are stellar nurseries about five thousand light-years or so distant.
The expansive M8, over a hundred light-years across, is also known as the Lagoon Nebula. M20's popular moniker is the Trifid. Glowing hydrogen gas creates the dominant red color of the emission nebulae, with contrasting blue hues, most striking in the Trifid, due to dust reflected starlight. The colorful skyscape recorded with telescope and digital camera also includes one of Messier's open star clusters, M21, just above the Trifid.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

"When I heard the learn’d astronomer,
When the proofs, the figures, were ranged
in columns before me,
When I was shown the charts and diagrams,
to add, divide, and measure them,
When I sitting heard the astronomer where
he lectured with much applause in the lecture-room,
How soon unaccountable I became tired and sick,
Till rising and gliding out I wander’d off by myself,
In the mystical moist night-air, and from time to time,
Look’d up in perfect silence at the stars."

- Walt Whitman