Tuesday, October 20, 2020

"An Impartial Review of Trump’s Record"

"An Impartial Review of Trump’s Record"
by Bill Bonner

"The excitement! A real cliffhanger! The Dow closed down about 400 points yesterday as investors sat on the edge of their seats. Today is the deadline set by Madam Pelosi. This morning, there is still no bailout agreement. But the House Speaker said they are making progress. “We may not like this, we may not like that, but let’s see on balance if we can go forward.” Inadvertently, Ms. Pelosi described the state of partisan politics circa 2020… and sealed the fate of the nation.

No Deal: Republicans and Democrats might disagree on the details, but they will go forward, hand in hand, over the cliff… together. On the table is a $2.2 trillion spending lalapalooza – a Christmas pudding with something in it for almost everyone. The president revealed that he is willing to go along with whatever wild and crazy boondoggle the Democrats come up with. But – at least, as of midday Eastern Standard Time – the great dealmaker hasn’t been able to make a deal.

Of course, if no deal is made, it’s not necessarily Trump’s fault. There are trends in motion that no one can contradict, least of all Donald J. Trump. In the news this morning is this headline from CNN: "A son drove his 94-year-old mother more than 300 miles each way so she could vote."

Why? Will it make any difference? Who will win? What will it mean?

Impartial Review: Today, we examine the record of Mr. Donald Trump’s presidency. Does the Big Man deserve re-election? And what will happen if he is defeated? Of course, we’ve been on the president’s case since the get-go. But here, we attempt an impartial review, intending neither to bow down before him nor to spit upon his political grave… Instead, we will uncover a far more disagreeable truth, which we will get to presently…

Promises, Promises: So, let’s turn to the record. In 2016, Mr. Trump set forth a set of goals and promises, somewhat incoherent, but which could be broadly summarized as follows…

Build a wall (widely interpreted as a metaphor for tighter border controls, less immigration, and more protection for native-born Americanos)…

Pull out of the unwinnable, imperial wars in the MidEast…

Reduce the trade deficit (and thereby favor domestic manufacturers)… 

Drain the Swamp (that is, reduce the “permanent government” of lobbyists, cronies, hacks, and has-beens, aka The Deep State)…

Put China in her place…

“Repeal and replace” Obamacare…

Balance the budget and pay off the federal debt…

Total Failure: Making no judgment as to whether they were worth doing or not, what happened? As near as we can tell, at least superficially, all were failures. There is no wall. The forever wars continue. The trade deficit is higher than ever. The Swamp is deeper than ever. China is stronger than ever. Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act) is still the law of the land. The budget is more out of balance than ever. And the federal debt is greater than ever.

Of course, there are extenuating circumstances in every case. We can perfectly well believe Mr. Trump sincerely wanted to do these things. But like the Pelosi bailout scheme… he just couldn’t make them happen. The Democrats wouldn’t go along with his wall, for example. He had to take money from the military. He says he is bringing the troops home from Afghanistan by Christmas (four years after taking his seat in the Oval Office)… but he seems to have forgotten to tell the Pentagon.

Meanwhile, he keeps doing his tough-guy act, threatening even more forever wars with Iran and China. Trying to revive manufacturing in the U.S. was a good idea. But Mr. Trump never understood what had caused its death in the first place.

And he surrounded himself with incompetents and nitwits, such as Peter Navarro, and wasted his time renegotiating trade deals… rather than attacking the real source of the problem – America’s fake money system. It’s easier to print dollars than to make automobiles or TV screens. So, Americans pay in dollars… and let foreigners do the hard work.

This year, the dollars gushed like never before. Between the Federal Reserve and the deficits, there was almost $6 trillion in potential extra liquidity. What happened? Did entrepreneurs rush to build factories, hire machinists, or compete with the foreigners? No, they bought more stuff from overseas… and the trade deficit swelled to a new record.

Greasy Cash: Drain the Swamp? There might have been a little evaporation early on as a number of regulations were cut back. But then, the Swamp got two major floods of greasy cash.

First, the trade wars themselves were worth hundreds of billions to the Swamp critters. Tariffs brought endless litigation and non-stop lobbying… as companies had to angle for special subsidies, dispensations, exclusions, and the like. Some 3,500 companies – including Tesla and Home Depot – have filed suit over the tariffs, a gold mine for Washington law firms, think tanks, political funds, and lobbyists.

Then came the biggest Swamp-filler ever: COVID-19. As the bug approached, The Donald was bamboozled by his own public health apparatchiks. Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, and Robert Redfield – all are on his payroll. They’re part of the executive branch; as chief executive, he is their boss. As soon as it became clear that the coronavirus was not a threat to the nation, approximately a week after he issued his “national emergency” declaration in mid-March, the president should have fired them all and gotten a new team.
 
Instead, the Coronavirus Cavalry ran roughshod over the Constitution and the economy… stifling the lives of 300 million in order, supposedly, to protect the 30 million who were actually at risk. But numbers have since shown that the “Lockdown” approach doesn’t seem to work. Some states locked down hard… others, lightly. The results are all over the place. And, according to the World Health Organization, not known for its extreme libertarian positions, lockdowns may do more harm than good (millions of poor people may die early). And they should only be used as a last resort.

Rules and Regulations: But while the lockdowns stunted lives and caused trillions in economic losses, they were honeysuckle to the Swamp bees. And now… Washington is abuzz with regulations, disputes, rules, laws, and court cases. What’s an essential business? What’s essential travel? Will you be allowed to have Thanksgiving? Is it protected by the right of assembly? What if you only invite family? Is a brother-in-law or a second cousin considered family? Can employees be required to come back to work? Will they have to take the vaccine? What if people are made sick by it?

Washington lawyers drool in the reflecting pool. “Health” bureaucrats get battlefield promotions. And pharma industry executives are already calling their architects, developing plans for even bigger and more hideous palaces in Palm Beach and Aspen.

More Failure: Nor did Mr. Trump succeed in repealing or replacing Obamacare. He may have improved it by eliminating the mandatory coverage requirement, but Obamacare is still the law of the land. As for putting China in her place… polls show the Middle Kingdom rising in world esteem, as the U.S. falls. Here’s the Financial Times: "China’s economy expanded 4.9 per cent year on year in the third quarter as industrial growth powered the country’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The expansion in gross domestic product missed expectations but was well ahead of a 3.2 per cent increase in the second quarter and represented a sharp turnaround from a historic decline at the start of the year."

The recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, which has been stoked by a state-backed industrial boom, now shows signs of extending to consumption at a time when global growth remains under severe pressure. Industrial production in China leapt 6.9 per cent in September – its highest level this year and the same rate as in December before the coronavirus outbreak. By comparison, U.S. GDP fell at a 31% rate in the second quarter. It is now believed to be down about 9%. And its recovery is stalling."

Bad Ideas: Was any of this Mr. Trump’s fault? Yes and no. Of course, he was stymied by the Democrats. But he was also particularly unsuited to be the nation’s chief executive. He was easily distracted… and seemed to lack any clear idea of what to do or how to do it. And he had some very bad ideas to start with. His was a kind of “improv government”… mixed with America’s funniest political videos. Moving quickly from tweet to tweet, he had no time to think or to develop a coherent plan. Nor did he have the patience to stick with it.

With no firm hand on the rudder, like a drunken boat, the ship of state drifted downriver… swirling around in pointless eddies… running aground in swamps and on sandbanks…going with the flow – as the Bush and Obama vessels did before it – towards bigger government, more debt, and more dopey meddling. And then, even before the coronavirus hit, the poor, confused bark was headed for the chutes…

Could a stronger captain have done better? Yes, of course. As we will see, almost anyone might have done better. But would it make any difference? Or are the currents so strong, they can’t be resisted? Let us pause here to catch our breath. This is the story we’ve been following for the last nearly four years. It deserves more than a paragraph or two… We’ll pick it up again tomorrow."

"Again And Again And Again..."


“What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the un-guessable “verdict of history”– what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!” 
- Robert A. Heinlein

And always remember...

"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains,
however improbable, must be the truth."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "Sherlock Holmes"

“Global Risk Is At Maximum, Debt Implosion Coming”

“Global Risk Is At Maximum, Debt Implosion Coming”
by Palisade Radio

"In this interview, Egon von Greyerz speaks to Tom Bodrovics from Palisade Radio about the cyclical and repetitive nature of the current economic situation and shares his concerns about increasing debt and central banks’ response. “The world is at a point where the risk is at absolute maximum” says Egon, stating that a debt implosion is inevitable.

Governments are spending more money than they are receiving and are running deficits. As has happened throughout history, the response of central banks and governments is to print more money. But where will this lead?

In this enlightening discussion, Egon explains how these problems date back to the beginning of the century and previous economic crises, such as the 2006-9 global recession. According to Egon, we saw the first warning signs in September 2019, but we’re starting to see the real effects now.

Egon goes on to discuss how COVID-19 was the catalyst, but not the cause, for today’s events, and how he fears that we are heading for a period of serious decline. Debt can’t be fixed with more debt, but central banks and governments don’t seem to understand this fact. That’s why everyone needs to prepare today for the inevitable decline."

"How It Really Is"

 

Oh yeah, just what we need...

"Will the Stock Market Be Dragged to the Guillotine?"

"Will the Stock Market Be Dragged to the Guillotine?"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"The belief that the Federal Reserve and its rigged-casino stock market are permanent and forever is touchingly naive. Never mind the existential crises just ahead; the financial "industry" (heh) projects unending returns of 7% per year, or is it 14% per year? Never mind the details, the Fed has our back and since the Fed is forever, so too will be the gains for everyone playing the rigged games in the Fed's casino.

What makes this presumption so childishly naive is the tides of history are about to sweep away the era of central banks, their fiat currencies and their rigged casino markets. That the global citizenry might realize these are all forms of financial tyranny doesn't occur to to the Financial Aristocracy, which has luxuriated in the neofeudal dominance of finance--the modern-era equivalent of Monarchy and the rights of royalty.

Under the guidance of the Financial Aristocracy, so-called democratic governance has mutated into totalitarian democracy, that is, a "democracy" in name only, a carefully managed simulacrum that props up a facade of "democracy" that is pure PR.

The Fed is busy planning a pivot to becoming "the people's source of free money forever" to save itself from oblivion. The pivot is called FedNow, an instant-payment system which bypasses both the traditional private banking sector and Congressional control of distributing money.

With FedNow, the Fed will be able to create trillions of dollars out of thin air and distribute the trillions directly into household accounts at the Fed. The idea here is that an economy that is no longer financially viable can be propped up indefinitely by Fed free money; all we need to do is bypass the obsolete private banking sector (sorry about that, buckos) and the equally obsolete shards of totalitarian democracy (Congress, the presidency, etc.) and stave off the revolt with endless free money.

That endless free money stripped of the last vestiges of discipline will stoke an inflationary death spiral--well, we'll worry about that tomorrow. The irony here is the Fed is only accelerating the demise of central banking, fiat currency and its rigged-casino stock market with its FedNow scheme to maintain its financial tyranny.

Alas, tyranny is still tyranny, feudalism is still feudalism, and history remains unkind to totalitarian regimes - even those which have morphed into a clever totalitarian democracy.

The Fed's rigged-casino stock market will be dragged to the guillotine by one route or another: either a populist reform that dismantles the neofeudal financial tyranny of central banks and their soon-to-be-worthless fiat currencies, or the implosion of the entire corrupt neofeudal financial system of central banking, fiat currencies and rigged casino markets, all of which are nothing more than engines of inequality."

Gregory Mannarino, "Updates: The Freak Show Continues; Stimulus! Will They Or Won't They?"

Gregory Mannarino,
"Updates: The Freak Show Continues;
 Stimulus! Will They Or Won't They?"

"Covid-19 Pandemic Update 10/20/20"

by David Leonhardt
10/20/20

"A virus update, in three charts: Let’s check in on the state of the coronavirus this morning, with help from three charts. Here’s the first:
Click image for larger size.
As you can see, the number of new virus cases in the U.S. is surging - and not far from this summer’s peak. You’re probably familiar with versions of that blue line. It is the most common metric for tracking the virus. The rising line mostly reflects reality: The virus is surging, especially in the Upper Midwest. Cooler weather is leading to more indoor activity, which often leads to new cases, and many Americans seem tired of pandemic restrictions.

But you’ll notice that the red line on the chart - the number of Americans currently hospitalized with virus complications - looks less bad. It has risen lately, but it is not close to its peak. Why? Partly because the number of virus cases is not actually rising as much as the official case numbers suggest.

That brings us to chart No. 2:
Click image for larger size.
The U.S. is conducting a lot more tests than in the summer or spring. More widespread testing means that the official numbers are capturing a larger share of new virus cases than earlier this year. “We have probably gotten better at finding cases, as testing capacity has increased, and so we can’t directly compare the size of the waves based on case counts alone,” Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins University told me. “That’s a good development.”

The third chart also suggests some encouraging news:
Click image for larger size.
Even as case numbers have soared and hospitalizations have risen, deaths have held fairly steady. That’s happened as many older people - who are most vulnerable - have been careful about avoiding exposure. A greater share of current new cases is among young Americans.

The quality of virus treatments is also improving. Remdesivir, dexamethasone and monoclonal antibodies all seem to help, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. points out. Just consider how quickly both President Trump and Chris Christie recovered, despite their age and underlying health risks.

The full picture: There are some silver linings. The statistics on new virus cases that get so much attention are somewhat exaggerating the severity of the current outbreak, because of the rise in testing. And treatments have improved, reducing the death count. But the virus’s toll has still been horrific - and worse than in many other countries. More than 220,000 Americans have died, and hundreds of people are still dying every day.

The overall situation is also getting worse, as the hospitalization numbers make clear. In some states, hospitals are almost full, and the virus continues to spread. “I’m just waiting to see if our community can change our behavior,” Debra Konitzer, the top health officer in Oconto County, Wis., recently said. “Otherwise, I don’t see the end in sight.” As Donald McNeil says, “The fall wave has just begun.”

Oct 20, 2020, 8:14 AM ET:
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 40,458,400 
people, according to official counts, including 8,255,429 Americans.

      Oct 20, 2020 8:14 AM ET: 
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
Updated 10/20/20, 6:24 AM ET
Click image for larger size.
A highly recommended "must read":

Monday, October 19, 2020

“Stock Market Needs Stimulus Now; Debt Killing The Economy; 6 Million Missed House Payments”

Jeremiah Babe,
“Stock Market Needs Stimulus Now; Debt Killing The Economy; 
6 Million Missed House Payments”

Musical Interlude: "Raise Positive Vibrations"

Spirit Tribe Awakening, "Raise Positive Vibrations". 528Hz Positive Energy, Self Healing with 417Hz Solfeggio frequency. Peaceful, empowering and soothing music and nature to nurture your mind, body, and soul. Supporting and empowering you on your life journey."

I can't praise this visually beautiful, and very effective, video enough. In these incredibly highly stressful times, please be kind to yourself and take the time to savor this exquisite work in full screen mode. Headphones suggested but not necessary. It works, as simple as that...
- CP

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Is this what will become of our Milky Way Galaxy? Perhaps if we collide with the Andromeda Galaxy in a few billion years, it might. Pictured below is NGC 7252, a jumble of stars created by a huge collision between two large galaxies. The collision will take hundreds of millions of years and so is effectively caught frozen in time in the above image. The resulting pandemonium has been dubbed the Atoms-for-Peace galaxy because of its similarity to a cartoon of a large atom. 
The above image was taken by the MPG/ESO 2.2 meter telescope in Chile. NGC 7252 spans about 600,000 light years and lies about 220 million light years away toward the constellation of the Water Bearer (Aquarius). Since the sideways velocity of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31) is presently unknown, no one really knows for sure if the Milky Way will ever collide with M31."

The Poet: Walt Whitman, "Miracles"

"Miracles"

"Why, who makes much of a miracle?
As to me I know of nothing else but miracles,
Whether I walk the streets of Manhattan,
Or dart my sight over the roofs of houses toward the sky,
Or wade with naked feet along the beach just in the edge
of the water,
Or stand under trees in the woods,
Or talk by day with anyone I love, or sleep in the bed
at night with anyone I love,
Or sit at the table at dinner with the rest,
Or look at strangers opposite me riding in the car,
Or watch honeybees busy around the hive
of a summer forenoon,
Or animals feeding in the fields,
Or birds, or the wonderfulness of insects in the air,
Or the wonderfulness of the sundown, or of stars shining
so quiet and bright,
Or the exquisite delicate thin curve of the new moon
in spring;
These with the rest, one and all, are to me miracles,
The whole referring, yet each distinct and in its place.
To me every hour of the light and dark is a miracle,
Every cubic inch of space is a miracle,
Every square yard of the surface of the earth is spread
with the same,
Every foot of the interior swarms with the same.
To me the sea is a continual miracle,
The fishes that swim- the rocks- the motion of the waves
- the ships with men in them,
What stranger miracles are there?"

- Walt Whitman, "Leaves of Grass"

"Yet Now..."

“Yet now, as he roared across the night sky toward an unknown destiny, he found himself facing that bleak and ultimate question which so few men can answer to their satisfaction. What have I done with my life, he asked himself, that the world will be poorer if I leave it?”
- Arthur C. Clarke, “Glide Path”

"Unknowingly..."

"Unknowingly, we plow the dust of stars,
blown about us by the wind,
and drink the universe in a glass of rain."
- Ihab Hassan

Gregory Mannarino, "Stocks Fall: Congress And The President Again Fail To Help The American People"

Gregory Mannarino,
"Stocks Fall: Congress And The President Again
 Fail To Help The American People"

The Daily "Near You?"

Savannah, Georgia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Is There Hope for the US?"

"Is There Hope for the US?"
by Jeff Thomas

"For the entire lives of anyone under the age of seventy-five, the US has been at the top of the heap in almost every way. For decades, it had greater freedom, greater prosperity and higher production than any other country in the world. America was a cornucopia – the centre for innovation and trends in technology, the arts and social development. And today, many Americans, even if they complain about changes for the worse in their country, come back quickly to say, "This is still the greatest country in the world." Or, "Everybody is still trying to come here."

Well, truth be told, neither of these knee-jerk comments is accurate any longer. But even those who have come to that realization tend to resort to the inevitable fall-back comment: "Well, whattaya gonna do? It’s just as bad everyplace else." And yet, this is also inaccurate. Throughout the history of the world, whenever a country had entered its decline stage, others were in the process of rising up.

And this is just as true today. There are countries where prosperity and production are far greater than in the US and, increasingly, countries where the key ingredient that made America great – Liberty – is present to a far greater degree. In fact, this is the one characteristic of America that’s most rapidly in decline. This is especially true in 2020, when a virus has been used as a justification to dramatically increase governmental dominance of the populace.

It matters little whether the US had a hand in creating the virus, or whether it was merely co-opted as an opportunity to expand control. The result has been heavy-handed governmental meddling in medicine, business and personal freedoms.

As regards the latter concern, the odd halfway measure of personal movement control is not great enough to keep a virus from spreading, but it has been sufficient to collapse businesses, create record unemployment and make it impossible for some people to feed themselves.

In the bargain, it has served as an ideal cover story for an economic collapse that had been inevitable. The government can say, "Don’t blame us for the collapse; it was those naughty Chinese and their pesky virus that did it." The decline is not an accident. It’s a planned demolition. And it’s going well. For those who actually pull the strings, profit will be made from the unfolding crisis. Not for everyone, of course, but most certainly for those few who are creating it.

But many say that the US is waking up, that its citizenry are coming to the conclusion that the Deep State – that corporatist ruling class that are made up of governmental and big-business leaders – has increasingly destroyed the prosperity, production and liberty that once existed and replaced them with massive debt, an exit of production to other countries and a vanishing middle class. And they’d be entirely correct. The endgame for the once-great US Empire is now underway, and over the next few years, we shall bear witness as it tumbles downhill.

So, what are Americans to do? Well, my belief is that – as is always the case when a country declines – the populace will divide into several groups.

The first group, which will be by far the largest, will increasingly grumble, but ultimately do little or nothing to save themselves. They will go down with the ship.

The second group will say, "We don’t have to accept this." They’re the preppers, the ones who have a store of food and have been stashing away guns and ammunition. They’re the folks who are seen at the corner bar, saying, "If they come for me, I’m locked and loaded." Their friends nod in agreement, but in fact, if a trained and outfitted SWAT team were to arrive on their porch, there would be very few who would succeed in getting off a single shot, and for those who did, their remaining life would be brief.

On the more thoughtful side of this group would be the third group. They would also say, "We don’t have to accept this," but their choice of a solution will be to "work within the system." This is a much larger group – the ones who wait for each election as though it holds a solution. Each time, they’re disappointed. If the party they supported is elected, the winners somehow fail to return the country to the free society it had once been. If the other party is elected, the decline only accelerates.

Incredibly, the lightbulb never seems to go on for this group. They never get to the point of realization that, "Oh, I get it: neither party has any intention of returning the country to a state of liberty. The only question is which group of pretenders gets to be in charge of the decline this time around. Either way, I lose." It could be said that this is the most tragic group. They’re sincere and dedicated. They endlessly hope that a solution is just around the corner, without there being any actual substance for their hope.

The commonality in all three of these groups is that they all end up as casualties. They may differ in their approach to the decline, but they’ll share in the loss of their wealth (however large or small) and their liberty.

But there’s also a fourth group – those who leave. Their numbers are small and they tend not to make a large impact on the consciousness of the other three. In fact, they’re never even mentioned by the media. It’s as though they don’t exist.

So, let’s step back a few centuries. America was founded by a hardworking assortment of settlers who came from several countries in Europe. In their home countries they witnessed oppression – limitations to both their liberty and their ability to create a good life for themselves and their families. They were independent-minded and self-reliant. They carved out lives in the wilderness and later built towns, then cities. But all the while, they hung on to their core belief of independence and liberty.

Today, they’re still revered as being the backbone of what made America great. And this view is accurate. Yet, today’s Americans are nothing like them. None of the three groups above thinks like them, although the middle group would like to believe they do, merely by owning guns. They’re not independent-minded. They’re not self-reliant. The key here is that the founders of America recognized that there was no chance that they could change the corrupt and controlling systems they were born into in Europe. So they left Europe and started over elsewhere.

The fourth group are following a similar path: Seek out a destination where the government does not yet have the power to rob you of your wealth and freedoms. The choice is a simple one. If you value your liberty – the ability to make your own decisions and to keep more of what you’ve earned – pack your bags and go."

"Despite My Firm Convictions..."

"Despite my firm convictions, I have been always a man who tries to face facts, and to accept the reality of life as new experience and new knowledge unfolds it. I have always kept an open mind, which is necessary to the flexibility that must go hand in hand with every form of intelligent search for truth."
- Malcolm X

"Losing the Battle for America’s Soul"

"Losing the Battle for America’s Soul"
By Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "Newsflash from Bloomberg: “The fate of additional stimulus for the U.S. economy before next month’s election will be decided this week, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi setting a Tuesday deadline to reach an agreement with the White House – though it remains doubtful that the Republican-controlled Senate will accept any deal they strike. President Donald Trump said he’s ready to match the $2.2 trillion spending levels demanded by Democrats – or go higher – despite repeated warnings by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that most GOP senators will oppose any coronavirus relief package that big.”

Isn’t that nice, Dear Reader? Our leaders come together on an important issue – spending money they don’t have on something they shouldn’t do.

Moving Out: But wait… There are still some malcontents. In the news last week was this gem: “We’re embarrassing”: Tommy Lee threatens to move out of US if Trump is re-elected… Who’s Tommy Lee? Do we care?

And Donald Trump says he might go, too. Here’s what he told supporters at a campaign event in Macon, GA., on Friday: "Could you imagine if I lose? My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, “I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.” I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know."

In sh*thole countries everywhere, losing power can mean more than just graciously ceding office. Smelling blood already, Trump’s enemies are circling. Here’s CNN: "Without some of the protections afforded him by the presidency, Trump will become vulnerable to multiple investigations looking into possible fraud in his financial business dealings as a private citizen – both as an individual and through his company. He faces defamation lawsuits sparked by his denials of accusations made by women who have alleged he assaulted them, including E. Jean Carroll, the former magazine columnist who has accused him of rape. And then there are claims he corrupted the presidency for his personal profits."

Trigger Warning: Coming up in just over two weeks is what many consider the most important election in modern times. A “battle for America’s soul,” they say. What that means, no one knows. But this week, we’re going to look at it. And herewith, a “trigger warning.” Over the next few days, we will set out three unpleasant and unpopular hypotheses…

• First, the election may matter… or it may not. In either case, it is impossible to know what effect the outcome will have.
• Second, the nation’s soul has probably already been sold to the Devil.
• And third, most of our dear readers – and the nation itself – may be better off if their favorite candidate loses.

There… we have framed the scene with black crêpe. Now, let us paint the picture.

Violence in Disguise: According to an extraordinary article published in Politico, a third of Democrats and Republicans say they would consider violence if the election goes against them (presumably, if they think the election is “stolen.”) But politics is always violence with table manners. Monarchy, oligarchy, dictatorship – it doesn’t matter what you call it, government is always run by a smallish elite… and always backed by force.

Which is why “consensual democracy” is probably the most tolerable form of government – not because it is democracy, but because it is consensual… at least, to a point. Civilized life is always consensual. It is based on win-win deals. A baker bakes… a plumber plumbs. They come to terms, exchange services, and both come out ahead.

All political deals are, by definition, the opposite. They are win-lose. Politicians neither bake nor plumb. They carry no hods; they till no fields. So all the policies they promise… and all the favors they distribute – even fake money – must come at someone else’s expense. Their wars… their taxes… their medical care… their zero interest rates… their COVID lockdowns and Homeland Security pat-downs – all are compulsory. The more of the nation’s time, attention, and resources they take, the less is left for everyone else. And the more “politics” in a society… the less freedom and prosperity.

You may not like it, but you can’t say, “Count me out.” Whatever their commands, the people in control are prepared to use violence to make sure you comply. That’s why an election is such a big deal. One side wins; the other loses. One takes; the other gets taken. One side has the heavy boot; the other bends over.

No Place for Politics: Here at the Diary, our ideology is simple. We favor freedom over slavery… beauty over ugliness… and truth over falsity. That leaves no place for politics. That is to say, we are as indifferent to it as a weed to a gardener. We would like to ignore it, but we know we might be pulled out at any time.

But Americans set aside one day every four years to wait in long lines, each one doing his solemn duty… that is, doing what he is told to do. Spraying on the Roundup, he believes the future of the Republic depends on it. His vote could be decisive, he believes. Without it, the dandelions will take over. But for all his self-flattery, his vote will have no more effect than a lightning strike in the desert. It is extremely unlikely to hit anything.

And even if it should be the one single, deciding vote – it is unlikely to make any real difference anyway. Or, to be more precise, it is very unlikely to make the difference he had hoped for. For proof, we offer up one of the candidates for America’s highest office – Donald J. Trump. It is hard to take the measure of Donald Trump’s successes and failures. They are so freighted with contempt or idolatry. But as we will see, they scarcely matter. The election – more than any in our memory – is about The Man, not the policies. And we will see, too, that even if The Man in the White House changes, the direction of the country will not. Stay tuned…"

"Many Americans Are Now Planning to “Bug Out” Ahead of Election Day As Authorities Brace For Chaos In The Streets"

"Many Americans Are Now Planning to “Bug Out” Ahead 
of Election Day As Authorities Brace For Chaos In The Streets"
by Michael Snyder

Will you be safe where you currently are if the election results cause chaos to erupt in the streets of our major cities? A lot of Americans are becoming deeply concerned about their personal safety as we approach November 3rd, because they can see what is coming. It is going to take a lot of extra time to count all of the votes because tens of millions of Americans are voting by mail this time around, and both sides have recruited armies of lawyers and are prepared to contest the results of the election to the bitter end. 

No matter who ends up being declared the winner when it is all over, there will be millions upon millions of very angry voters out there that are likely to feel as though the election was stolen from them, and that is a recipe for widespread societal unrest. I truly wish that we could go back and do things differently so that we would not be facing this sort of scenario, but it is too late for that now. More than 27 million Americans have already voted, and more are voting every day. Any attempts to fix the process will have to wait for future elections, and without a doubt it definitely needs to be fixed.

It is still difficult for me to believe that I am actually writing about the possibility of violence after a U.S. presidential election, but this is where we are at as a society. In fact, there is violence in the streets right now. This should break all of our hearts, because violence is not going to solve anything.

Unfortunately, an increasing number of people are not listening to voices of reason, and we are seeing anger and frustration rise to levels that we have never seen before. At this point, most Americans are expecting the worst. To be more specific, one recent survey found that 55 percent of all registered voters expect a rise in violence following the election: "In the YouGov survey, about 55 percent of registered voters said they thought violence would increase in the U.S. following the Nov. 3 presidential election. Just under 11 percent of respondents said they didn’t expect a rise in violence to occur after the election, while 33 percent of voters were unsure."

Even more alarming, a different survey found that more than 40 percent of Republicans and more than 40 percent of Democrats believe that violence would be at least “a little” justified if their party ends up losing: "In September, 44 percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Democrats said there would be at least “a little” justification for violence if the other party’s nominee wins the election." I truly wish that those numbers were not real, but they are.

As Election Day draws near, many Americans have decided that “bugging out” is the best thing to do. For example, one 31-year-old New York resident is going to be staying with her parents on Election day because she believes “the city will be on fire” if Trump wins: "Flatiron resident Andrea, 31, also decided to pack up before Nov. 3. “I went to my parents in New Jersey for about two weeks when the BLM protests got bad and the looting started. So I definitely want to get out of here the week of the election,” said the public-relations specialist, a Republican who asked that her last name not be used. “I’m thinking if Trump wins, it’s going to be a disaster - the city will be on fire. People are going to go nuts.”

And 42-year-old Ooana Trien is planning to spend Election Day out of the city because she is concerned that “protesters will try and burn down Trump Tower”: "The Trump supporter, who is mailing in her ballot, plans to open up her doors to others looking to escape. “I told my friends that whoever wanted to get out of the city was welcome here. One friend who lives in Washington Heights is going to vote in the morning [on Nov. 3] and come straight up to the beach,” she said. “My mother thinks that whether [Trump] wins or loses, protesters will try and burn down Trump Tower.”

Law enforcement authorities all over the nation are also deeply concerned about the potential for violence. For example, in New Jersey officials have warned that we could potentially see “civil unrest resulting in riots, violent acts, and fatalities”: “Election result delays and recounts could result in protests and attempts to occupy election offices,” officials with the New Jersey Department of Homeland Security and Preparedness warned in a threat assessment issued in late September. “Incidents of civil unrest resulting in riots, violent acts, and fatalities will converge with election uncertainty, producing confrontations between protesters and counter-demonstrators challenging election outcomes,” it noted.

Yes, you read that correctly. They actually used the word “fatalities”.

In New York, residents were rattled by a leaked NYPD memo that warned of violent protests from October 25th through the early portion of 2021: "New Yorkers are on edge after a leaked NYPD memo, obtained by The Post, revealed this week that police are preparing for protests to begin as early as Oct. 25 and grow in intensity through next year. The department decreed officers should “be prepared for deployment,” adding: “This November 3rd will be one of the most highly contested presidential elections in the modern era. There is also a strong likelihood that the winner of the presidential election may not be decided for several weeks.”

In Arizona, the information security officer for Maricopa County is encouraging people to have law enforcement authorities on speed dial just in case something happens: “Make sure that you’re reaching out to your law enforcement and say, on and around Election Day, what is our plan?” he said. “Do you have an emergency contact list? Do you have your police department, your sheriff, whoever, on speed dial ready to get them to respond to any kind of threat?”

Election Day is now just a little over two weeks away, and emotions are running really high. Most Democrats fully expect Joe Biden to win, and many of them are still anticipating a landslide. Of course most Republicans believe that the national polls are completely wrong again and that President Trump will ultimately emerge victorious. In the end, one side will be proven wrong and the disappointment that they will feel will be very, very bitter. We all remember the rioting that we witnessed earlier this year, and many believe that what is ahead could be far, far worse.

In 2020, gun sales have soared to levels that we have never seen before, and many Americans find themselves purchasing guns for the very first time. One of those first time buyers is a 44-year-old single mother named Andreyah Garland: "Andreyah Garland, a 44-year-old single mother of three daughters, bought a shotgun in May for protection in the quaint middle-class town of Fishkill, New York. She joined a new and fast-growing local gun club to learn how to shoot. According to Reuters, a “potentially contested election that many fear could spark violence” played a role in her decision to purchase a firearm…

Like legions of other first-time buyers who are contributing to record sales for the U.S. gun industry this year, Garland’s decision to take up arms is driven in part by disturbing news about the coronavirus pandemic, social unrest over police killings of Black people and a potentially contested election that many fear could spark violence. “With everything going on around us,” she said, “you see a need.”

If you could go back 50 years ago and tell Americans what conditions would be like in 2020, most of them would not believe you. Our society is literally melting down right in front of our eyes, and I don’t think that anyone is going to be able to stop it from happening.

Of course this election will come and go, but the social instability that we are witnessing will remain, and at this point everyone should be able to see that America is heading into a very dark future."

"What We Owe To Ourselves..."

“That we can never know,” answered the wolf angrily. “That’s for the future. But what we can know is the importance of what we owe to the present. Here and now, and nowhere else. For nothing else exists, except in our minds. What we owe to ourselves, and to those we’re bound to. And we can at least hope to make a better future, for everything.”
- David Clement Davies

"The Law of Unintended Consequences"

"The Law of Unintended Consequences"
by Mark Manson

"Each week, I send you three potentially life-changing ideas to help you be a slightly less awful human being. This week, we’re talking about 1) the law of unintended consequences, 2) meta-feelings and being ashamed of shame 3) a 2020 mental health update.  Let’s get into it. 

1. The Law of Unintended Consequences – Long-time MFM readers will remember that when I kicked this newsletter off last year, one of the first things I wrote about was something I called “The Nuclear Power Effect.” I described it as a situation where the “solution” to something really scary is subtly more damaging than the scary thing itself. In the case of nuclear power, it turns out that shutting down reactors increases reliance on fossil fuels which actually harms and kills far more people than any nuclear meltdown ever would (not to mention, it destroys the environment). 

Back in those halcyon days of the newsletter (ah, we were so young and innocent then, weren’t we?) I asked readers for more examples of this “effect.” Lots of great ideas popped up - counterterrorism, driving instead of flying, shark attacks, etc. 

In honor of the newsletter’s first birthday, I decided to whip up an article about this “nuclear power effect” - situations where the apparent solution screws everything up way worse than the original problem. 

This is often referred to as “The Law of Unintended Consequences” - situations where the solution ends up being far worse than the original problem. I came across tons of examples of how this can happen in our daily lives - in our careers, finances, relationships, etc. The piece ended up being one of my favorite articles I’ve written in a long time. Check it out: "The Law of Unintended Consequences" (or read it on the iOS app)

2. Meta-Feelings (or Being Ashamed of Being Ashamed)Last week, I published an article challenging the conventional self-help notions about shame. I argued that shame, while it has the potential to royally screw us up emotionally, exists for pro-social reasons and is probably impossible to completely eradicate within ourselves. 

Unsurprisingly, a number of readers pushed back against that, most with an argument about the differentiation between shame and guilt. Shame is hating who you are. Guilt is hating what you’ve done. All feelings of shame should therefore instead be interpreted as guilt and then the feelings of guilt can be resolved through some combination of corrected action, forgiveness, compassion, etc. 

Now, don’t get me wrong, this sounds wonderful in theory. But I’ve come to believe that it’s simply not possible in practice. A few issues:

• Not all sources of shame are actions. I can be ashamed of my family members, my socio-economic status, my propensity to eat when I’m nervous, or the way my legs strangely curve outward even when I’m standing entirely straight. 

• Not all shame is rational or even conscious. In fact, most of it is not. It’s hard to uproot what is so abstract that you hardly even realize it’s there. 

• Like all emotions, shame adheres to the Backwards Law - i.e., the desire to rid yourself of shame is itself a subtle form of shame. The idea that you should possess no shame and come to accept yourself fully and completely is itself a failure to accept yourself fully and completely.

Years ago, I wrote an article where I discussed something I called “meta-feelings.” If you feel happy, that’s a feeling. If you feel bad about feeling happy, that is a meta-feeling. Generally, we can never change our feelings. What we can change is our meta-feelings.

So here’s the real issue with shame: some of it simply doesn’t go away no matter what you do. This is particularly true of survivors of sexual trauma or child abuse. The traumatic event physically alters the brain in such a way that these feelings of inferiority or undeservedness are “baked into” our psyche to a certain extent.

Therefore, the solution is not to remove the feeling (hint: the solution is pretty much never to remove the feeling, no matter what it is), but rather to master the meta-feeling. So, don’t try to remove the shame. Rather, master the way you judge and interpret the shame. That’s where the healing is. 

A beautiful example of this recently occurred on Tim Ferriss’ hugely popular podcast. Tim’s work has traditionally focused on optimizing external, material achievement. But a few weeks ago, he recorded an episode with author and sexual abuse survivor, Debbie Millman. It was there that he then revealed for the first time publicly, that he, too, was a sexual abuse survivor. 

What ensued was an incredibly honest and powerful conversation about shame and trauma, the limits of therapy, and various attempts to cope and heal. It’s a powerful listen. Yet, what stands out in both of their stories is their understanding that this doesn’t go away. That as long as you’re fighting or fleeing the feelings, the feelings will always win. 

It’s only on the battlefield of the meta-feelings - determining the meaning of the feelings; the feelings about the feelings - that you have some chance of liberation.

So, I stand by the shame article. There are things about myself of which I am ashamed. I do not expect those feelings to go away for the simple reason that I have little control over them. But what I do control is my ability to accept and appreciate my own shame as I’ve come to accept and appreciate the other parts of myself. And that’s what I strive to do. 

3. Mental health in a pandemic world - Now that we’ve got that cleared up, let’s lighten things up a little bit and talk about suicide. We’ve now been living with the pandemic long enough to get some useful data on how the state of the world is affecting people’s mental health and the results are, uh… not good. 

The CDC did a survey over the summer asking 5,400 Americans if they had considered suicide in the past month. Nearly twice as many people said “yes” as did in 2018. Particularly horrifying is the fact that a quarter of respondents between the ages of 18-24 reported suicidal thoughts. 

Another new paper, based on an older data-set from the Spring, says that suicidal ideation is up, particularly among low-income individuals and people who lost their jobs this year. This is no surprise since one of the strongest predictors of suicide is economic loss and financial insecurity. Interestingly, though, this paper is the only one I know of that mentions loneliness as a significant factor, as well. 

Another paper, based on the same data-set as above, looks at self-reported feelings of depression. It concludes that feelings of depression are three times higher than in previous years. Once again, financial insecurity was the top factor. 

Despite being incredibly sad, I suppose none of this should be that surprising. Generally, under any economic downturn/recession, you see spikes in suicide, depression and mental health issues. That is, unfortunately, nothing new. We know losing your job and your savings takes people to a dark place. But what’s more interesting to me is how much of this is borne out of social isolation, lack of mobility or autonomy, and just straight-up boredom. But that’s hard to know. 

Regardless, I invite you to challenge yourself this week to reach out to someone, particularly if they are struggling. Check in on them. See how they’re doing. Listen. You never know, it could make a difference. 

Until next week, stay healthy. And stay sane. "

"How It Really Is"

 

"American Gothic Horror"

"American Gothic Horror"
by Jim Kunstler

"That something wicked we spoke of coming our way…? Well, it came. Now we know why Nancy Pelosi has been running around in a fright mask with her hair on fire, and it’s not just a ghoulish anticipation of Halloween. Her Democratic Party is in extremis. It is shot through with the cancer of falsehood and the wormholes of crime, acquired through decades of playing fast and loose with the machinery of government. Nancy has been informed and she remains stuck in the rage stage of the grief cycle. Somebody sent her a copy of that hard-drive. The thing she feared would not end well is actually turning out worse than she thought.

I have a theory about Joe Biden: He didn’t want to run for president. Not one eensy-weensy bit. He wanted a nice, quiet retirement with his fat government pension plus sundry millions that had somehow found its way into his bank account over the years. He had a fabulous $16-million gentleman’s estate to gambol upon with his beloved grandchildren. The developing brain-fog was actually a comfort, allowing him to forget the rigors of public service and all the tedious gathering of… honoraria, shall we say. But then they came for him!

The Party called. Rather specifically, his old Kemosabe, Barack Obama, called him in for that ominous sit-down and gave him the bad news: Joe, you’ve gotta run. Bernie, Liz, and the rest of those bozos, they won’t keep a lid on it. You’re in this thing as deep as we are and it’s getting a little hairy. You’ve got to do it for the sake of the party, and all our… friends…

And so, Joe Biden was shanghaied into running for president. He was given a bodyguard of news media, including those crucial new additions, the social media, Twitter and Facebook, where, increasingly, information was hubbed for transmission among the voters. They would protect him infallibly from any damaging narratives. In fact, they would generate powerful counter-narratives to keep their adversaries off-balance. If Joe could just roll with it until November 3rd, they could lay all their… problems… to rest, bury all that annoying insinuendo about the hobgoblin Deep State (ha!), and finally breathe easy.

And so, trailing rather pathetically in the primary elections after being dubbed an old racist by his opponents, and drubbed in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe somehow managed to sweep the table on Super Tuesday - apparently due to the single, magical endorsement of one congressman James Clyburn (SC, 6th District), a narrative that was swallowed like a May River oyster by the credulous all over the land. And thus anointed, Joe retreated to his fabled basement for the whole election season, venturing intermittently into empty parking lots and airplane hangars to offer proof-of-life while a polling disinfo campaign by his media bodyguard vouchsafed his inevitable victory. Looked like a sure thing in September… pack up all my cares and woe… and so forth…

And then, something broke. Well, some news, actually, a wonder considering the Democratic tank that The New York Times, The WashPo, CNN, MSNBC, and all the rest had jumped in. Long about mid 2019, some jamoke in the jamoke state of Delaware got possession of some laptop computers brought in for servicing on account of water damage - like, what? They fell into a hot tub??? Anyway, the customer, one R. Hunter Biden, never retrieved (or paid for) the computers which, under Delaware law and the service agreement of the computer repair shop, became the property of said repair shop and its jamoke proprietor, one John Paul Mac Issac. Mr. Mac Issac had a peek inside one of them that still worked - now legally his property - and, lo and behold, he noticed some familiar names among the emails along with an impressive video of the laptop’s owner using drugs while cavorting with a naked woman.

Mr. Mac Issac contacted the FBI. At first, they brushed him off, but then, weeks later, showed up with a subpoena for the computer and seized it. Impeachment season was upon us! CIA agent Eric Ciaramella, advised by fellow NSC member Col. Alexander Vindman, had cooked up a “whistleblower” complaint for crusading congressman and RussiaGate impressario Adam Schiff (D-CA), and the game was on! Mr. Mac Issac apparently followed the impeachment soap opera on the airwaves. The proceedings included no mention of the laptop and the information, or, shall we say, the evidence, it contained. He began to grok the significance of the material dumped in his lap by this wayward customer, R. Hunter Biden, and began to wonder how come the FBI was just sitting on all that. You’d think the FBI would have turned it over to the president’s lawyers since it amounted to what might be construed as exculpatory evidence of a high order. Or that FBI Director Christopher Wray might have apprised Attorney General William Barr of the laptop’s existence. In any event, the President’s lawyers made their case against impeachment without it. Weird, a little bit

So, more time went by and Mr. Mac Issac, grew a little suspicious, a little impatient. The FBI would not deign to return his phone calls. A fastidious fellow, he had made a copy of the laptop’s hard-drive. So, he up and handed another copy over to Rudy Giuliani, a former federal prosecutor of some renown, and one of President Donald Trump’s lawyers. Mr. Giuliani easily recognized what was in there: a detailed map of the Biden family’s world-wide grifting operations, plus graphic evidence of R. Hunter Biden’s moral depravity. Which brings us up to date… almost.

The bodyguard of news media protection was breaking under the weight of all that bad faith, perfidy, hypocrisy, lying, money-grubbing, and depravity. The story of the Biden family’s gothic doings was loose in the land despite every strenuous effort to suppress it, and now the suppressers were starting to look really bad… so bad that Twitter founder Jack Dorsey was about to be hauled into the Senate Judiciary Committee for some ‘splainin’ - that is, a gentle reminder that he is not the Master of the Universe he bethinks himself to be, but rather a member of a society based on rules, traditions, and a consensual understanding of decent behavior

That’s only the beginning of where all this goes. Other leaks are springing in the great Democratic dike, and they are short of Little Dutch boy volunteers who can plug the holes holding back a cold sea of infamy. There is, for instance, the fabled Anthony Weiner laptop, yes, the one that was seized in 2016 as part of the Hillary Clinton email probe. It somehow ended up in the possession of the New York City Police Department. Turns out it contains 340,000 emails between Hillary and her top aide of twenty years, Huma Abedin, wife of disgraced congressman Anthony Weiner. Trouble is, Mr. Weiner had no security clearance and it was, after all, his laptop. Rumor is that Ms. Abedin is now talking to prosecutors. Will that be consequential?

Also turns out one Bevan Cooney, a former business associate of R. Hunter Biden, who is cooling his heels in a federal slammer for a securities fraud conspiracy, was pissed-off enough at being left holding the bag that he gave his email account and password to investigative reporter Peter Schweizer, author of "Clinton Cash" and "Profiles in Corruption", who is now poring over the 26,000 emails exchanged between various the business partners. Wait for it…

Also turns out that Devon Archer, another R. Hunter Biden partner, and fellow Burisma Board member, just had his conviction re-instated in the same securities fraud case that Mr. Cooney was convicted in, and Mr. Archer faces up to ten years’ time on his charges — an incentive, perhaps, to make a deal for information about his storied career with R. Hunter Biden in exchange for a reduced sentence.

The Biden campaign announced on Sunday that it was “putting a lid” on the candidate’s activities for the week so that he can study up for the final “debate” with President Trump. I suspect there’s a whole lot more than that going on in the basement, namely, discussions of how Mr. Biden might still gracefully withdraw from the race. Let’s face it, he’s barely been going through the motions for the past three months. Joe Biden is a dead man walking. If he stays in, the Democratic party is finished. Nancy Pelosi can stop worrying about getting her hair done. It will be burnt off entirely."
Related:


"The Moral Principle..."

"The precept: "Judge not, that ye be not judged" is an abdication of moral responsibility: it is a moral blank check one gives to others in exchange for a moral blank check one expects for oneself. There is no escape from the fact that men have to make choices; so long as men have to make choices, there is no escape from moral values; so long as moral values are at stake, no moral neutrality is possible. To abstain from condemning a torturer, is to become an accessory to the torture and murder of his victims.The moral principle to adopt in this issue, is: "Judge, and be prepared to be judged."
- Ayn Rand