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Epic Economist, 10/31/23
"15 Shortages That Will Hit Grocery Retailers Next Month"
"Are you ready for the shortages that are about to hit grocery stores in November and beyond? The production of many beloved snacks, meats, nuts, fruits, and other key staples has suffered immense challenges over the past twelve months, and retailers are scrambling to source popular items and find new suppliers as seasonal demand starts picking up. For example, the food industry is rebounding from the outbreak of avian influenza that pushed egg prices up by more than 40% and caused major chicken shortages that hit U.S. restaurants and supermarkets. In recent years, millions of eggs were destroyed in an effort to control the contagion, but millions of chickens that were supposed to grow to enter the market in 2023 are simply not there. Even though some farmers and ranchers say the worst is seemingly over, that doesn’t mean things came back to normal. Food processors are focusing on the production of more profitable chicken products due to the limited supply, leaving low-margin products behind. Consequently, popular snacks like chicken nuggets and chicken fingers haven’t been produced at the same scale as prior years, and shoppers are already reporting stockouts. It might take years before a recovery occurs, which will force everyone, from food makers to the end consumer, to continue to adapt.
Similarly, tofu has become widely popular among Americans now that a shift to plant-based foods has begun. Given its versatility, and nutritional value, many vegetarians and vegans can’t live without it, though carnivores can enjoy the protein too. But experts say the global soybean shortage is about to hit tofu production really hard. The Crop Production report issued by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecasts a 10% decline in tofu production during the current fiscal year compared to last year’s numbers. Even worse, production declined to 4.10 billion bushels in the third quarter, compared to 15.1 billion bushels in the same period in 2018. Crop yields are getting smaller year after year all around the world, in several countries, shortages of soybean-based products are already being reported. For example, in Canada, tofu shortages are happening in many cities, with Quebec stores almost entirely sold out of the item. It’s only a matter of time before this hits American grocers as well, which will likely force those on a plant-based diet to find substitutes.
Without a doubt, American consumers are being left with fewer options to choose from. This year, we've witnessed a period of relative calm on supply chains compared to a few years ago, but that doesn't mean that problems have been fixed, or that reserves were finally restored. In fact, grocers are now running out of several foods, and consumers are coping with price hikes and limited options at stores, a trend that will only intensify as we move closer to the holiday celebrations. Nowadays, changing consumption behavior is no longer a matter of want but of need. Some substitutions will be imposed on us, while others may only be temporary. In any case, this is far from ideal, and the fact that our domestic agricultural and livestock production is falling across the board is a major sign of trouble for all of us. Our food systems are extremely vulnerable at this moment, and many more products could disappear from shelves in the coming months.
If you haven't restocked your pantry yet, this might be your last chance before retail inventories shrink even further over the next couple of months. To help you prepare for the chaos ahead, we prepared a list of essential items that are going to become impossible to find this winter, so make sure you watch this video until the end to discover which shortages will impact you the most."
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