So, we rise from the rubble...
Friday, March 22, 2024
Adventures With Danno, "Grocery Prices Are Out Of Control! How I Am Saving Money!"
Adventures With Danno, AM 3/22/24
"Grocery Prices Are Out Of Control!
How I Am Saving Money!"
"Grocery store prices are completely out of control. With very few ways of saving money on food, I talk about what we are doing to make life more affordable!"
Comments here:
Dan, I Allegedly, "A Bank Gave Away Free Money"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 3/22/24
"A Bank Gave Away Free Money"
"A Bank had a problem over the weekend where people could take out whatever they wanted out of their account. They could transfer money they could even take as much cash as they wanted out of the ATM."
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Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 3/22/24"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/22/24
"Expect A Dramatic Turn For
The Worse For The Economy"
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o
Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/22/24
"We Are Being Set Up On A Massive Scale!
Expect A Worst Case Scenario To Unfold"
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Jim Kunstler, "Wake-up Call"
"Wake-up Call"
by Jim Kunstler
“Those who organized the disaster will take advantage of the inevitable discontent arising from efforts to overcome it, for if there is one thing that they are skilled in, it is demagoguery.”
- Theodore Dalrymple
Can you feel it? The tension rising to the red-line? It runs clear through all of Western Civ. We are ruled by governments of fiends. But now, the sun rides higher in the sky. The sap is rising in the northern forests. The earth heaves. The buds swell and blush. Something is in the air. The animals are waking from their long winter sleep. The natives are restless.
The two traditional political divisions, liberal and conservative died with Covid. Now there are simply the sane versus the insane. The sane have had enough of being pushed around by the insane. The insane don’t register much of what reality tries to tell them. They have a body of insane ideas to comfort and protect them from the reality’s rigors. To call that body of ideas an “ideology” is way too polite.
That the insane call themselves “progressive,” is a signature of their insanity. Progress toward what better state of things? Toward a supremacy of fiends, sadists, degenerates, and morons seizing riches and power by every dishonest means possible outside the rule of law and common decency? It’s not even suitable to call them “communists.” They lack the necessary idealism for that. They don’t expect to put their shoulders to the wheel with their fellow man. They just want to grab your stuff and then kill you so they don’t have to hear any complaints.
The insane do not believe any of the theoretical bullshit they want to force you to swallow. They don’t care about climate change. It’s just a cudgel they use to beat everyone over the head so they can steal your stuff. They don’t care about “democracy.” It’s just a line of bullshit to cover up their election-stealing. Do you suppose that sane people would keep using electronic vote-tabulating machines that were demonstrably connected to the Internet, and thus hackable, if they cared about election integrity? Of course not. They would arrange p.d.q. to junk them and use paper ballots, and only in person at polling places, with “absentee” exceptions only for people out of the country.
The insane do not care about public health. Everything that is known about the Covid-19 vaccinations tells you that they are unsafe and don’t prevent infection or transmission of a flu-like illness that might not even be what it was officially labeled as. Our public health officials in the FDA, the CDC, and in other corners of the Department of health and Human Services, lie about everything they’re responsible for. This week, the CDC (under Director Mandy Cohen) released a 148-page study on myocarditis reactions to mRNA shots. Every word on every page of the document was redacted. The CDC printed countless copies of the report with 148 utterly blank pages, and then proffered them to the news media. How is that not insane?
The insane do not care about the rule of law. The conduct of “Lawfare” is the subversion of the law by dishonest means. It is a species of racketeering. And that is why Lawfare rogues such Marc Elias, Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, Mary McCord, Lisa Monaco, Matthew Graves, and Merrick Garland, should be charged under the federal RICO statutes for conspiring to deprive sane citizens of their rights and property in the many cases related to the 1/6/21 riot at the US Capitol.
It is, so far, an abiding mystery of contemporary history as to how New York Attorney General Letitia James managed to get away with prosecuting a real estate case against Donald Trump that was no more than victimless business-as-usual between a borrower and his lenders. Ms. James ran for that elected office promising to “get” Mr. Trump on something, anything. That is not how the rule of law works. Under the rule of law, first you determine that there is a crime and then look for who did the crime.
Letitia James must be insane and/or pretty stupid. The short-term gain of stealing Mr. Trump’s property under a false color-of-law and creating impediments to his election campaign, will, sooner or later, blow back at her as a matter of malicious prosecution and, plausibly, racketeering as well. (With whom did she conspire to bring this case? We shall find out.) She will eventually be disgraced publicly as her teammate Fani Willis has already been disgraced in Fulton County, Georgia. I’ll tell you something that all sane people now know but won’t talk about for fear of being crushed by the levers of Lawfare: this looks like a concerted effort by people-of-color to railroad people of non-color. If you think that is a good thing for race relations in our country, then you are insane.
Here are a bunch of other things that are insane: Re-litigating the first amendment is insane. It means what it says, and states it plainly. The open border is insane. No credible sovereign polity would allow it. It would be opposed with force, if necessary. Turning children into transsexuals on a wholesale basis is insane, and fiendishly so. Everybody knows that it is not good for the children or for our society as a whole. But fiends got to fiend, and if you try to deprive them of being fiends then you are guilty of “hate.”
The war in Ukraine is insane. We certainly didn’t ignite it in the service of “democracy.” Our pawn there, Mr. Zelensky, canceled the national elections last year. The war was arguably an effort by our CIA to deprive Russia of its market for natgas in Europe, and thus deprive Russia of a great deal of money, that is, of prosperity. The project failed. Russia overcame NATO’s proxy army and found other markets for its gas. Blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines only served to impoverish and weaken our NATO allies, who no longer have affordable gas to run their industries. The leaders of those allies were too insane to recognize that the Nord Stream op was an act-of-war against them. They were also busy destroying themselves, like the USA, with open borders. They will end up in a new medievalism, ruled by savages. You’d have to be insane to arrange that for yourself.
What’s most obviously insane in our country is that the insane party is pretending to nominate the mentally unfit White House place-keeper, “Joe Biden,” for reelection. You would think that if this party wanted to retain power, they would run a candidate who, though insane, was not also visibly senile. But the rank and file of this party are too insane to see that this dodge is not working. They are pretending with all their might that this is okay, that the growing faction of the sane don’t notice.
Sensing the growing impatience with insanity among the voters, the insane party has reached its point of terminal desperation. What will they try next? Murder? Why not? Nothing else seemed to work. They are too far gone in their insanity to understand that winter is over. We’ve entered the season of rebirth and renewal, starting with a renewed appreciation for being sane and for that indispensable ingredient that makes liberty in a free society possible: good faith. Really, the only question left is: how rough do they intend to play to prevent the return of sanity and good faith?"
Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 3/22/24"
"Weekly News Wrap-Up 3/22/24"
Theft Legal in NY, Black Swan Coming, Fed Rate Cut Tease
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"It is looking like the Democrats are making theft legal in New York. Donald Trump is on the verge of losing nearly a half billion dollars of property in Westchester County because he lost a fraud case where nobody actually was a victim of fraud. The case is a classic study in abuse of power by the New York State Attorney General and a judge willing to suspend reality to bankrupt the GOP nominee for President. Theft appears legal in New York if it is orchestrated by Dems against the GOP. The Appellate Court should step in and put a stop to the theft for the good of everyone.
General Michael Flynn, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at the Pentagon, is warning of a coming “Black Swan” before the 2024 Election. Is this coming because the Deep State realizes it just cannot beat Donald Trump, and they will do anything to keep Trump from a second term? Who knows what General Flynn knows, but he knows something big and bad is coming. You should take this warning seriously and prepare for rough riding by the fall.
The Fed is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t when it comes to interest rates. If it raises them, it could cause a financial meltdown. If it lowers interest rates, it could cause a melt up and big inflation, which will cause the poor to suffer even more. With a barrel of oil now trading above $80, the Fed is in a pretty tight box. The Fed is teasing, and it just might do nothing. There is more in the 52-minute newscast."
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble for these stories
and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 3/22/24:
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Jeremiah Babe, "Your Assets Are Being Seized And Stolen; The Church Has Failed You America; WW III Is Next"
Jeremiah Babe, 3/21/24
"Your Assets Are Being Seized And Stolen;
The Church Has Failed You America; WW III Is Next"
Comments here:
Canadian Prepper, "Alert! Canada Prepares For WW III Unrest; Russia Allows NATO To Enter Ukraine?!"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 3/21/24
"Alert! Canada Prepares For WW III Unrest;
Russia Allows NATO To Enter Ukraine?!"
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Musical Interlude: 2002, "Chrysalis"
Full screen recommended.
2002, "Chrysalis"
“Oceans of strings and choirs, flutes and keyboards lift us
out of the trials and tribulations of our daily lives as though
we were on a ship with gossamer sails, sailing on the moonlight.”
– Steve Ryals
"A Look to the Heavens"
“What powers are being wielded in the Wizard Nebula? Gravitation strong enough to form stars, and stellar winds and radiations powerful enough to create and dissolve towers of gas. Located only 8,000 light years away, the Wizard nebula, pictured above, surrounds developing open star cluster NGC 7380. Visually, the interplay of stars, gas, and dust has created a shape that appears to some like a fictional medieval sorcerer.
The active star forming region spans 100 about light years, making it appear larger than the angular extent of the Moon. The Wizard Nebula can be located with a small telescope toward the constellation of the King of Aethiopia (Cepheus) Although the nebula may last only a few million years, some of the stars being formed may outlive our Sun.”
Paulo Coelho, "The Bird And The Cage"
by Paulo Coelho
"Once upon a time, there was a bird. He was adorned with two perfect wings and with glossy, colorful, marvelous feathers. One day, a woman saw this bird and fell in love with him. She invited the bird to fly with her, and the two travelled across the sky in perfect harmony. She admired and venerated and celebrated that bird. But then she thought: He might want to visit far-off mountains! And she was afraid, afraid that she would never feel the same way about any other bird.
And she thought: “I’m going to set a trap. The next time the bird appears, he will never leave again.” The bird, who was also in love, returned the following day, fell into the trap and was put in a cage. She looked at the bird every day. There he was, the object of her passion, and she showed him to her friends, who said: “Now you have everything you could possibly want.”
However, a strange transformation began to take place: now that she had the bird and no longer needed to woo him, she began to lose interest. The bird, unable to fly and express the true meaning of his life, began to waste away and his feathers to lose their gloss; he grew ugly; and the woman no longer paid him any attention, except by feeding him and cleaning out his cage.
One day, the bird died. The woman felt terribly sad and spent all her time thinking about him. But she did not remember the cage, she thought only of the day when she had seen him for the first time, flying contentedly amongst the clouds. If she had looked more deeply into herself, she would have realized that what had thrilled her about the bird was his freedom, the energy of his wings in motion, not his physical body.
Without the bird, her life too lost all meaning, and Death came knocking at her door. “Why have you come?” she asked Death. “So that you can fly once more with him across the sky,” Death replied. “If you had allowed him to come and go, you would have loved and admired him ever more; alas, you now need me in order to find him again.”
And she thought: “I’m going to set a trap. The next time the bird appears, he will never leave again.” The bird, who was also in love, returned the following day, fell into the trap and was put in a cage. She looked at the bird every day. There he was, the object of her passion, and she showed him to her friends, who said: “Now you have everything you could possibly want.”
However, a strange transformation began to take place: now that she had the bird and no longer needed to woo him, she began to lose interest. The bird, unable to fly and express the true meaning of his life, began to waste away and his feathers to lose their gloss; he grew ugly; and the woman no longer paid him any attention, except by feeding him and cleaning out his cage.
One day, the bird died. The woman felt terribly sad and spent all her time thinking about him. But she did not remember the cage, she thought only of the day when she had seen him for the first time, flying contentedly amongst the clouds. If she had looked more deeply into herself, she would have realized that what had thrilled her about the bird was his freedom, the energy of his wings in motion, not his physical body.
Without the bird, her life too lost all meaning, and Death came knocking at her door. “Why have you come?” she asked Death. “So that you can fly once more with him across the sky,” Death replied. “If you had allowed him to come and go, you would have loved and admired him ever more; alas, you now need me in order to find him again.”
- http://paulocoelhoblog.com/
"44 Million Americans Face Eviction Due To Unaffordable Rental Prices"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 3/21/24
"44 Million Americans Face Eviction
Due To Unaffordable Rental Prices"
"Many renters are being evicted from their homes due to the increasing cost of renting a house. With 35% of the U.S. population living in rental housing, many are facing financial stress when it comes to housing affordability. This video delves into the factors causing this spike in price and what the US congress is doing about it."
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“The Power of Doubt”
“The Power of Doubt”
by don Miguel Ruiz
“Have you ever asked yourself if something you heard was actually true? Have you ever wondered if someone was lying to you, or worse yet, have you ever wondered, “Am I lying to myself?” Do you believe those voices in your head that are giving you opinions? Do you tend to believe other people’s opinions? If you answered yes to any of these questions, you will understand when being skeptical is a good thing.
Right now, you’re delivering a message to yourself and to everyone around you. You’re always delivering messages, and you’re always receiving messages from one mind to another mind. But the most important messages are the ones you deliver to yourself. What are those messages? The word is a force you cannot see, but you can see the manifestation of that force, the expression of the word, which is your own life. The way to measure the impeccability of your word is to ask yourself: Am I happy or am I suffering? If you’re suffering, it’s because you’re telling yourself a story that isn’t true, but you believe it.
When you look at yourself in a mirror, do you like what you see, or do you judge your body and use the word to tell yourself lies? If you believe that you are not attractive enough, then you believe a lie, and you are using the word against yourself, against the truth.
Is it really true that you are too heavy or too thin? Is it really true that you are not beautiful? If you’re telling yourself: “I’m fat. I’m ugly. I’m old. I’m not good enough. I’ll never make it,” then be skeptical. Don’t believe yourself, because none of these messages come from truth, from life. These messages are distorted; they’re nothing but lies. The truth is, there are no ugly people. There’s no universal book of law where any of these judgments are true. Every judgment is just an opinion - it’s just a point of view - and that point of view wasn’t there when you were born.
Everything you think about yourself, everything you believe about yourself, is because you learned it. You learned the opinions from Mom, Dad, siblings and society. They sent all those images of how a body should look; they expressed all those opinions about the way you are, the way you are not, the way you should be. They delivered a message, and you agreed with that message. And now you think so many things about what you are, but are they the truth?
What is the truth and what is the lie? Humans believe so many lies because we aren’t aware. We ignore the truth or we just don’t see the truth. When we are educated, we accumulate a lot of knowledge, and all that knowledge is just like a wall of fog that doesn’t allow us to perceive the truth, what really is. We only see what we want to see; we only hear what we want to hear. Our belief system is just like a mirror that only shows us what we believe.
In our development, as we grow throughout our lives, the structure of our beliefs becomes very complicated, and we make it even more complicated because we make the assumption that what we believe is the absolute truth. We never stop to consider that our beliefs are only a relative truth that’s always going to be distorted by all the knowledge we have stored in our memory. As children, we are innocent; we believe almost everything that we learn, but everything that we learn isn’t true. We put our faith in lies, we give them power, and soon those lies are ruling our lives.
Just imagine becoming the way you used to be as a very young child, before you understood the meaning of any word, before opinions took over your mind. The real you is loving, joyful and free. The real you is just like a flower, just like the wind, just like the ocean, just like the sun. There is nothing to justify, nothing to believe. You have no mission except to enjoy life. You are here just to be, for no reason. Then the only thing you need to be is the real you. Be happiness. Be love. Be yourself. That’s wisdom. It’s the complete acceptance of yourself just the way you are, and the complete acceptance of everybody else just the way they are. The reward is your eternal happiness.
But first you have to unlearn a lot, and you only have one tool to do this. That tool is doubt. Being skeptical is an important part of recovering what you really are because it uses the power of doubt to break all those spells you’ve been under. Whenever you hear a message from yourself, or from someone else, simply ask: Is it really true? With the power of doubt, you challenge every message you deliver and receive. You challenge every belief that rules your life. Then you challenge all the beliefs that rule society, until you break the spell of all the lies and superstitions that control your world.
Once you recover all the power you invested in lies, you can see what is real; you can feel what is real. Even though lies still exist, you no longer believe them. You don’t believe everything anymore, but you can see, and what you can see is the truth. The truth doesn’t need you to believe it. The truth simply is, and it survives – believe it or not. Lies need you to believe them. If you don’t believe lies, they don’t survive your skepticism, and they simply disappear.
Centuries ago, people believed that the earth was flat. Some said that elephants were supporting the earth, and that made them feel safe. The belief that the earth was flat was considered the truth, and almost everybody agreed, but did that make it true? It was nothing but a superstition, and I can assure you that we still live in a world of superstition. The question is: Are we aware of it?
Wherever you go, you will hear all kinds of opinions and stories from other people. You will find great storytellers wanting to tell you what you should do with your life: “You should do this, you should do that, you should do whatever.” Don’t believe them. Be skeptical, but learn to listen and then make your choices. Be responsible for every choice you make in your life. This is your life; it’s nobody else’s life, and you will find that it’s nobody else’s business what you do with your life.
For centuries, there have been prophets who predicted big catastrophes in the world. Not that long ago, there were people who predicted that in the year 2000 all the computers would fail and society as we know it would disappear. The day arrived, and what happened? Nothing happened. Thousands of years ago, just like today, there were prophets who were waiting for the end of the world. At that time, a great master said: “There will be many false prophets who claim to be speaking the word of God. Don’t believe.” You see, being skeptical is nothing new. Doubt takes you behind the words and helps you to discern the truth from lies. And this is a good thing.”
"History..."
"History is indeed little more than the register of
the crimes, follies and misfortunes of mankind."
- Edward Gibbon
Scott Ritter, "Geopolitical Analysis 3/21/24"
Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 3/21/24
"Israel - Palestine War Update"
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Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 3/21/24
"Scott Ritter: Russia Beats NATO; Israel Beating Itself"
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Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 3/21/24
"China And Allies"
"This explosive video dives into the dynamic shifts in global power structures, highlighting China's strategic economic enhancements and burgeoning international relationships aimed at becoming a comprehensive superpower. We explore China's focus on economic growth over military expansion, their establishment of key partnerships with nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and BRICS members, and the confident stance of countries like Russia in forming relationships outside of Western influence. Moreover, we delve into the geopolitical chess game involving the US, its reliance on traditional allies for control, and its unease with the evolving global alliances. This narrative also uncovers the contrasting perceptions of political dissent in Russia, the controversial figures of Alexa Naval and Julian Assange, and the dire human rights situations in Israel-Palestine. This video is a must-watch for anyone interested in understanding the complex web of international relations and the emerging global order."
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The Poet: e. e. cummings, "Humanity I Love You"
"Humanity i love you because when you’re hard
up you pawn your intelligence to buy a drink..."
"Humanity I Love You"
"Humanity i love you
because you would rather black the boots of
success than enquire whose soul dangles from his
watch-chain which would be embarrassing for both
parties and because you
unflinchingly applaud all
songs containing the words country home and
mother when sung at the old howard
Humanity i love you because
when you’re hard up you pawn your
intelligence to buy a drink and when
you’re flush pride keeps
you from the pawn shop and
because you are continually committing
nuisances but more
especially in your own house
Humanity i love you because you
are perpetually putting the secret of
life in your pants and forgetting
it’s there and sitting down on it
and because you are
forever making poems in the lap
of death
Humanity, i hate you"
- e. e. cummings
Dan, I Allegedly, "Real Estate Has Changed Forever"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 3/21/24
"Real Estate Has Changed Forever"
"They tore down a five story office building to that they can build a warehouse. This is the sign of the times for the economy. Things are so bad when it comes to office buildings being rented out."
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Gregory Mannarino, "It Has Begun! This Is What Just Happened, And What Will Happen Now As A Result!"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/21/24
"It Has Begun! This Is What Just Happened,
And What Will Happen Now As A Result!"
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Adventures With Danno, "Holiday Deals At Kroger This Week!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 3/21/24
"Holiday Deals At Kroger This Week!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Kroger and are checking out all of the holiday deals this week. With prices constantly rising in the grocery stores, now is the time to take advantage of some of these great sales going on at Kroger!"
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Wednesday, March 20, 2024
"World War III Prelude, 3/20/24"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 3/20/24
"Red Alert! NATO Invades Russia!
3,000 US Tanks to Israel; 2,000 French Troops; Poland Info Blackout"
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The Middle East:
Full screen recommended.
Nauctis, 3/20/24
"Iran's Deadly Weapon:
Can Launch 100,000 Ballistic Missiles in Minutes"
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended.
Military Weapons, 3/20/24
"Iran Armed Forces: 11 Million Soldiers"
"One of the most unusual military powers in the Middle East, let alone the world, is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran’s military obtains much of its manpower from conscription, and males are required to serve 21 months of military service. The army is the largest branch of Iran’s military, followed by the Revolutionary Guards. This body, organized in the republic’s early days, is the country’s most effective military force and consists of the most politically dependable and religiously devout personnel."
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"Israel is Evil personified. Israel is Evil embodied."
- Scott Ritter
Judge Napolitano, 3/20/24
"Jeffrey Sachs: Israel Can't Survive, Will Become A
Pariah If Causing Major War In Rafah & With Hezbollah"
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Col. Douglas Macgregor states that Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles, massive artillery resources, as well as over 100,000 extremely well trained and equipped professional soldiers, many battle-hardened by 10 years in the Syrian civil war. If Israel declares war, as threatened, The Israeli Occupation Force will be crushed. Hezbollah will take all of northern Israel and Syria will retake the occupied Golan Heights. Gaza will be resolved...
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Barred spiral galaxy NGC 1365 is truly a majestic island universe some 200,000 light-years across. Located a mere 60 million light-years away toward the chemical constellation Fornax, NGC 1365 is a dominant member of the well-studied Fornax galaxy cluster.
This sharp color image shows intense star forming regions at the ends of the bar and along the spiral arms, and details of dust lanes cutting across the galaxy's bright core. At the core lies a supermassive black hole. Astronomers think NGC 1365's prominent bar plays a crucial role in the galaxy's evolution, drawing gas and dust into a star-forming maelstrom and ultimately feeding material into the central black hole. The position of a bright supernova is indicated in NGC 1365. Cataloged as SN2012fr, the type Ia supernova is the explosion of a white dwarf star.”
Jeremiah Babe, "Super Bubble Warning; The FED Is Doing A Lot Of Talking, Stocks Go Nuts"
Jeremiah Babe, 3/20/24
"Super Bubble Warning; The FED
Is Doing A Lot Of Talking, Stocks Go Nuts"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Travelling with Russell, "Russian Typical Local Food Market: Would You Shop Here?"
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 3/20/24
"Russian Typical Local Food Market:
Would You Shop Here?"
"Join me on a tour of my local Russian foods market in the town where I live. Discover where Russians shop on a day to day basis. From food and drinks to clothes and household goods."
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"We Don't Talk About Collapse To Revel In It, We Talk About Collapse to Prevent It"
"We Don't Talk About Collapse To Revel In It,
We Talk About Collapse to Prevent It"
by Charles Hugh Smith
"Those of us who discuss collapse are generally dismissed as doom-and-gloomers, the equivalent of people who watch dash-cam videos of vehicle crashes all day, reveling in disaster. Why would we spend so much effort discussing collapse if we didn't long for it?
Those dismissing us all as doom-and-gloomers hoping for collapse have it backward: yes, some long for collapse as a real-life disaster movie, but those discussing collapse in systems terms are trying to avoid it, not revel in it.
If the system is vulnerable beneath a surface stability, then the only way to avoid negative consequences is to understand those vulnerabilities/fragilities and work out systemic changes that reduce those risks. It's not the analysis of vulnerabilities that causes collapse, it's refusing to look at vulnerabilities because to do so is considered negative. Why not be optimistic and just go with the consensus that the status quo is impervious to serious disruption? Can-do optimism is all that's needed to overcome any spot of bother.
The problem is humanity's propensity to confuse optimism with magical thinking. This confusion is particularly visible in any discussion of energy. The status quo holds that every problem has a technological solution, and doubting this optimism is dismissed as naysaying: "why can't you be positive?"
I consider myself an optimist in the sense that I see solutions that are within reach if we change our definition of the problem so we can enable new solutions. I consider myself a practical, pragmatic optimist because I understand from life experience that systemic solutions generally require arduous transformations that will demand great effort and sacrifice. In many cases, this process is mostly a series of failures and disappointments that are the essential parts of a steep learning curve. But little of this basic awareness is visible in media descriptions of "solutions."
Thus every advance in a lab somewhere is immediately touted as the globally scalable solution: algae-based fuel, modular nuclear reactors, new battery designs, etc., in an endless profusion of technologies which are 1) not even to the prototype stage 2) cannot be scaled 3) limited to specific uses 4) require the construction of new infrastructure 5) consume vast resources to be built, including hydrocarbons 6) are not renewable as they must be replaced every 10-15 years 7) are not cost-effective once externalities are included 8) are intrinsically impractical due to complexity, dependency on rare minerals, etc.
All this "optimism" is actually 95% magical thinking, as the practical, real-world realities are dismissed or glossed over: "Oh, they'll figure all that out." In other words, throw enough money and talent at a problem ("We went to the moon, so anything is possible!") and it will always be solved in a way that's bigger and better. This is not optimism, this is magical thinking being passed off as optimism. Real optimism is cautious and contingent, hyper-aware that solutions are a dependency chain that only reach cost-effective scalability if an entire chain of circumstances and advances line up just right.
There's another source of confusing optimism and magical thinking: being too successful for too long. Former Intel CEO Andy Grove discussed this in his book "Only the Paranoid Survive,": once an organization reckons it has succeeded and has everything necessary to continue achieving success without making any systemic changes, then it's doomed to decay and eventual collapse.
When success becomes the default then all the hard parts of success - sacrifices made, failures mopped up, gambles that didn't pay off and gambles that did - melt away and all that's left is a sunny confidence that somebody somewhere will work out a solution that scales up to solve the problem for all of us: "We have top people working on it - top people!" Meanwhile, back in the real world, it takes 20 years to get a new bridge approved and built in the U.S., 20 years for a new subway line approved and built and 20 years to get a new landfill approved.
We're supposed to make the leap to a renewable zero-net-carbon future in 20 years and we can't even build one new-design nuclear reactor prototype in 20 years, even as we'd need hundreds of new reactors to replace a significant slice of hydrocarbon consumption. But if you dare to point out this painfully visible discrepancy between the real-world difficulties in getting a single prototype built in less than 20 years and the claim that we're going to transition away from hydrocarbons in 20 years, then you're a doom-and-gloomer, a naysayer who derives some bitter pleasure from shooting down optimists working on painless, sacrifice-free techno-solutions.
The essence of magical thinking is the belief that the long dependency chain between the idea/lab experiment and a solution that's cost-effective and scales up to serve everyone will always fall into place because it's always fallen into place in the past, and so there's no reason to doubt that all the pieces will fall into place going forward.
This is magical thinking because it has zero interest in the real-world constraints embedded in each link in the long chain. If you bring up any of these constraints, the magical thinking "optimist" is immediately annoyed and accuses you of being a bitter naysayer. The idea that there might be real-world constraints that "top people" can't overcome is rejected as naysaying.
The possibility that there might be systemic constraints is rejected out of hand because "anything's possible if we throw enough money and talent at it." There will always be a solution/substitute which will be affordable and sacrifice-free.
That all the previous examples of this were enabled by our exploitation of the easiest-to-extract hydrocarbon wealth is overlooked as a footnote. This leaves us all frustrated. Those of us grounded in the real world are frustrated that if we bring up any real-world constraints--for example, those wondrous untapped ore deposits that are going to make all these new techno-wonders cheap and quick and easy are far from paved highways, far from major river or bluewater ports, far from processing plants, and far from sources of the millions of liters of diesel fuel that will be needed onsite to extract the ores - then we're bitter naysayers who can't bear optimism and easy success, while the magical thinking "optimists" are frustrated that we're not accepting the technocratic religion that "top people" and a tsunami of money will solve any problem.
One thing I've noticed is "top people" (actual experts with long experience) are never the ones hyping some new technology as the pain-free affordable solution unless they're paid shills of special interests. Then they hype nuclear reactors as the solution without mentioning the problem of what to do with the waste, to name one constraint "optimists" inevitably ignore.
In the real world, the hard part is getting every link of the long dependency chain to work reliably and at a cost that's sustainable/affordable. Success comes not from blithely dismissing constraints as naysaying but from accepting most potential solutions will fail due to issues for which there is no cost-effective, practical, scalable fix. On a systemic level, this requires questioning whether the system itself has to change if we want a different result. If one possible result of the current system is collapse, realizing the system itself must be changed isn't doom-and-gloom, it's problem-solving."
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Related:
"U.S. Consumers Have Reached A Breaking Point"
"U.S. Consumers Have Reached A Breaking Point"
by Michael Snyder
"Over the past several years, the cost of living has been rising significantly faster than paychecks have. As a result, U.S. consumers have reached a breaking point. Delinquency rates are spiking and bankruptcies have risen to a very dangerous level. I have been hearing from so many people that are struggling to survive in this suffocating economic environment. It has become increasingly difficult just to pay for the basics, and so many Americans have very little or no discretionary income to spend these days. If you want evidence that this is having a major economic impact, just consider the fact that 1,000 dollar stores are going to be shut down. If U.S. consumers were in good shape, that wouldn’t be happening. The economic shift that we have witnessed since the turn of the decade has been nothing short of epic.
According to Zillow, the average monthly mortgage payment for Americans buying a home now is nearly double what it was in January 2020…"The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years. According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America."
And with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovering around seven percent right now, there’s not a whole lot of light at the end of this tunnel. If home buyers have to shell out twice as much for their mortgage payments compared to four years ago, they are going to have a lot less money to spend on other things. And this is the primary reason why so many of our young people simply cannot afford to purchase a home right now.
At this point, you need to earn approximately $106,000 a year in order to “afford the median home in the United States”… “After the surge in home-buying demand and mobility during the pandemic, and the doubling of mortgage rates, home-shoppers now need to earn $106,000 to afford the median home in the United States,” said Divounguy. Back in 2020, the salary needed to afford the median monthly mortgage payment was just $59,000. Of course it isn’t just housing that has become extremely unaffordable.
For the first time I can ever remember, the cost of burgers has become a major national issue…
I can’t imagine paying more than 20 dollars for a burger, fries and drink at a fast food restaurant. But this is life in America in 2024. Our leaders have created an inflationary nightmare. The Biden administration continues to insist that inflation is a low, but that is a lie.
Another lie that we have been told is that the unemployment rate is low. How can that be possible when we just witnessed the worst February for layoffs since Challenger, Gray & Christmas started keeping records?…"The pace of job cuts by U.S. employers accelerated in February, a sign the labor market is starting to deteriorate in the face of ongoing inflation and high interest rates.
That is according to a new report published Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which found that companies planned 84,638 job cuts in February, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 9% jump from the same time last year. It marked the highest layoff total for the month of February in data going back to 2009."
The Biden administration keeps telling us that there are plenty of good jobs available. So why are so many highly qualified workers having such difficulty finding work? Here is one example… "Since leaving a university research administration job last May, Kyle Clark has cast an ever-widening net in his search for a new position. First the 30-year-old sought jobs in technical editing, a skill he honed at the university. Then he leveraged his administrative experience, applying for openings in insurance and project management. Finally, he tossed his hat in the ring for a job posting at a local big-box retailer, only to be told the store wasn’t hiring. After fruitlessly job hunting in the Portland, Oregon, area, Clark moved in with his parents in Tennessee with no better results. Now he’s heading to Chicago to try his luck in the Windy City.
Why can’t Kyle Clark find a job? He has submitted applications for approximately 250 jobs, and he hasn’t received a single offer… The tally so far: about 250 applications, 14 positive responses, 12 interviews. No job offers. “I am losing my mind,” Clark says, noting he has a four-year college degree and seven years of work experience. “I am just burned out. I just want to be employed. I have skills, I want to work, and that’s what’s frustrating. I want to. Just let me.”
I have heard from so many others that are in the exact same boat. So something is not adding up. The rosy picture of the economy that the Biden administration is giving us simply does not match reality at all. And now we have reached a breaking point.
Last year, the total number of bankruptcy filings in the United States was 18 percent higher than the year before…"U.S. bankruptcy filings surged by 18% in 2023 on the back of higher interest rates, tougher lending standards and the continued runoff of pandemic-era backstops, data published Wednesday showed, although insolvency case volumes remain well below the level seen before the outbreak of COVID-19. Total bankruptcy filings – encompassing commercial and personal insolvencies – rose to 445,186 last year from 378,390 in 2022, according to data from bankruptcy data provider Epiq AACER." Based on what we are seeing so far this year, I fully expect the final number for 2024 to absolutely crush the final number for 2023.
Meanwhile, it is being reported that corporate bond defaults were up by a whopping 80 percent last year…"Consumers aren’t the only ones defaulting on their debts: Corporate bond defaults were up massively in 2023, especially for high-risk junk debt, and the trend is continuing this year at a pace not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. Unsurprisingly, companies selling low-rated junk debt are being hit the worst.
Last year, according to S&P Global Ratings, corporate bond defaults increased by a disconcerting 80%. High interest rates coupled with high inflation have made it a struggle for companies to make good on their commitments even as waves of new bond buyers continue to arrive, eager to lock in higher yields before rates go down."
Many have pointed out that corporate bond defaults spiked like this just prior to the financial crisis of 2008 too. We have entered such dangerous territory, and it appears that things will get even worse throughout the rest of this year. Our leaders were able to delay the inevitable for a while by flooding the system with trillions upon trillions of dollars. But now an economic nightmare has arrived anyway, and the days ahead are going to be exceedingly challenging for most U.S. consumers."
"How It Really Is"
"When people pile up debts they will find difficult and perhaps even impossible to repay, they are saying several things at once. They are obviously saying that they want more than they can immediately afford. They are saying, less obviously, that their present wants are so important that, to satisfy them, it is worth some future difficulty. But in making that bargain they are implying that when the future difficulty arrives, they’ll figure it out. They don’t always do that.”
– Michael Lewis, “Boomerang”
"If only"... you don't stop because you can't stop.
If you do it's all over. It's all over anyway, you're just buying time.
Tell me I'm wrong...
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