So, we rise from the rubble...
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
"It Is Our Fate..."
"Well, it is our fate to live in a time of crisis. To live in a time when all forms and values are being challenged. In other and more easy times, it was not, perhaps, necessary for the individual to confront himself with a clear question: What is it that you really believe? What is it that you really cherish? What is it for which you might, actually, in a showdown, be willing to die? I say, with all the reticence which such large, pathetic words evoke, that one cannot exist today as a person, one cannot exist in full consciousness, without having to have a showdown with one's self, without having to define what it is that one lives by, without being clear in one's mind what matters and what does not matter."
- Dorothy Thompson
Jeremiah Babe, "Sorry, Cash Not Accepted; America Is For Sale To The Highest Bidder"
Jeremiah Babe, 1/23/24
"Sorry, Cash Not Accepted;
America Is For Sale To The Highest Bidder"
Comments here:
"The 2024 Debt Spiral: How $1 Trillion in Interest Is Breaking the Federal Budget"
"The 2024 Debt Spiral: How $1 Trillion
in Interest Is Breaking the Federal Budget"
by Nick Giambruno
"Contrary to conventional wisdom, higher interest rates mean more inflation in the environment today. That’s because the federal interest expense increases as interest rates rise. As the federal interest expense rises, so does the budget deficit. As the budget deficit increases, so does the currency debasement needed to finance it.
Skyrocketing interest expense will have an enormous impact on the US budget. Even according to the US government’s rosy projections, the interest expense on the federal debt will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2024… and it shows no sign of slowing down. On the contrary, it’s growing exponentially. First, it’s essential to understand the basics of the US federal budget. Let’s zoom out and look at the largest components of the US federal budget from the latest available data in the chart below. (Click image to enlarge.)
The biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements. It’s not likely any politician will cut these. On the contrary, I expect them to continue to grow. With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, so-called "National Defense" seems unlikely to be cut. Instead, military spending is all but certain to increase.
Income Security is a catch-all category for different types of welfare. That’s unlikely to be cut too. Unless it becomes politically acceptable to cut things like Social Security, military spending, and welfare, efforts to make a dent in expenditures won’t be meaningful. Further, interest expense (Net Interest above) is set to explode higher.
The US government projects that the federal interest expense will exceed $1 trillion in 2024 for the first time. That means the interest expense will exceed defense and everything else in the budget except for Social Security, which it will also likely exceed soon.
As the cost of debt service is taking up a larger portion of the budget, there is less for other expenditures. That means the government has to borrow increasingly larger amounts to maintain basic functions. However, it’s worse than issuing more debt to cover Social Security and the military. The US government is now borrowing money to pay interest on the federal debt, which has a compounding effect as the federal debt and interest expense grow exponentially. I suspect we are close to the inflection point where it gets out of control. 2024 could be the year that it becomes evident the US is trapped in a debt spiral.
Here’s the bottom line with the budget. The most significant expenditures have nowhere to go but up. But don’t count on increased revenue to offset these increases. Even if tax rates went to 100%, it would not be enough to stop the deficits - and the debt needed to finance them - from growing. The US government is out of options. Therefore, the question is not whether it will default but how.
When faced with a choice, politicians always choose the most expedient option. In this case, that means issuing more debt rather than making tough budget decisions or explicitly defaulting. There is a big problem with that, though. As the amount of debt skyrockets, the interest rate rises to entice buyers and holders. Allowing interest rates to rise high enough to entice natural buyers would bankrupt the US government because of the higher interest costs, which are set to become the largest item in the budget.
So, I would not expect the Fed to raise interest rates much more. In fact, they have already paused the rate hikes and are signaling a pivot to easing again, likely for this exact reason. That means the Fed has effectively given up on bringing price inflation down even though the year-over-year change in the CPI remains above 4%, more than double the Fed’s target of 2%. In other words, even with their own crooked statistics and rigged game, the Fed has failed even to come close to their inflation target. It’s a massive failure. Bloomberg is already hailing it "The Great Monetary Pivot of 2024."
It’s crucial to understand that by surrendering to inflation, the Fed is returning to the same policies that caused prices to rise in the first place. So, if higher interest rates are off the table and cannot entice more natural buyers, who will finance these growing multi-trillion dollar budget deficits? The only entity capable is the Federal Reserve, which buys Treasuries with dollars it creates out of thin air. That’s why I am convinced extreme currency debasement is the inevitable outcome. All the rest is noise.
The US government’s only practical option is ever-increasing currency debasement… and it could devastate most people. I suspect it will all go down soon… and it won’t be pretty. It will result in an enormous wealth transfer from savers and regular people to the parasitic class -politicians, central bankers, and those connected to them. Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially - or worse - because they failed to see the correct Big Picture as their governments went bankrupt."
Greg Hunter, "Landslide Trump Victory in 2024"
"Landslide Trump Victory in 2024"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong has correctly predicted every presidential race since the 1980’s with his “Socrates” data mining program. The 2024 race, featuring Donald J. Trump, is shaping up to be the most lopsided race for the White House in history. Armstrong explains, “Trump should win. This data has even shocked me, and it’s been right on every election and even Brexit. It’s basically showing, out of 6 models, it is showing four basically all for Trump, but two of them are showing absolute unbelievable landslides. It’s showing 61% for Trump. The computer has never come up before with this complete gap. In 2016, it showed Trump would win, but not overwhelming, but this one is absolutely stunning.”
Many say that they can stop Trump by cheating more than in 2020. Armstrong is seeing that the margins are so big they cannot cheat enough to fill the gap. Armstrong contends, “That’s the way it is shaping up. If you look at the polls on confidence in government, even Europe is down to only 30% of the people trust government anymore. We are looking at a serious collapse in the confidence of government on every level you want to look at. Our computer also shows that this election is not going to be accepted by the other side. Honestly, I have never seen our computer project such a landslide. The Biden Administration, in all honesty, is a complete disaster.”
Armstrong says interest rates are going to continue to edge up along with the federal debt. Armstrong points out, “If you pay attention, Fed Head Jay Powell came out in the beginning of December, and he actually said, ‘The spending is unsustainable.’ The Federal Reserve does not criticize the current administration. For him to say this, you know it is getting bad. This says the Fed knows we have a problem here. The higher rates go, the more unstable the banks become. We are in a sovereign debt crisis now.”
How will they pay all this back? Armstrong says, “I think they want to deliberately start a war, and the way they get out of the debt crisis. I think they will refuse to pay all the debt that China holds. That’s it. Any enemy that holds US debt, they are simply not going to pay it.”
Armstrong also says there is a plan to run Michelle Obama in place of Joe Biden for President in 2024. Again, Armstrong says that is not going to stop a Trump landslide. There is also talk of the UN and the WHO taking control of the world in the next medical crisis or pandemic. Armstrong’s computers do not see that working out either. Armstrong does see a peak in global disease and sickness in 2026. Armstrong points out that could be a combination of the nearly 14 billion global CV19 vax injections and some new disease unleashed on the public, too. Armstrong also sees a Deep State that is so desperate to beat Trump that “it will start a war in August or September” just before the November election. Armstrong says that the Deep State is so evil that even if Trump does win, they will get him involved in a world war that will not be easy to walk back. Armstrong says the biggest fear his global clients have is World War III getting started before Trump can get back into office.” There is much more in the 1-hour and 2-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One
with Martin Armstrong, financial and geopolitical cycle expert.
"Feds Spent $20 Billion On Migrant Refugee Assistance"
"Feds Spent $20 Billion On Migrant Refugee Assistance"
by Adam Andrzejewski
"The U.S. border patrol made 2.5 million migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2023, an all-time high. There seems to be no end in sight, or meaningful plan from the Biden administration to stop or slow the number of people coming over the border. Meanwhile, federal funds flowing to migrants are growing at an exponential rate.
Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com looked at just one federal office to get an idea of how much spending is going towards accommodating, transporting, and providing migrants with various other services. The Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), a part of Health and Human Services, is a major vehicle for migrant-related spending. Congress appropriated $20 billion in just two years on “refugee and entrant assistance.”
Background: Last year, we published an oversight report on the unaccompanied children program run by the agency: up to 85,000 minors were lost after “sponsorship” with a “vetted” guardian. The New York Times found credible allegations of child labor law violations and congressional whistleblowers detailed large-scale child trafficking.
Now, our investigation into the agency reveals new oversight: 1. billion-dollar spending spikes in the adult refugee programs; and 2. potential conflicts-of-interest between agency leadership and its largest grant recipients. In fact, for decades, agency director Robin Dunn Marcos was employed in executive positions by two non-profit organizations that are among the agency’s largest grantees. Here is a five minute interview describing the big issues in our reporting:
$20 Billion For Refugee Care (2022-2023): Refugee and entrant assistance totaled a stunning $20 billion over the last two fiscal years. The costs rose from $8.925 billion (FY2022) to $10.928 billion (FY 2023).
Across all programs, the Administration of Children and Families (ORR’s parent agency) received funding of $2.94 billion in Afghanistan Supplemental Appropriation and additional supplementals just in fiscal year FY2022 (P.L. 117-43 and P.L. 117-70). Ukrainian refugees cost taxpayers $900 million in FY2022 and $1.775 billion in FY2023 (P.L. 117-128 and P.L. 117-180).
In its latest Congressional Budget Justification, the agency suggested expanding its mandate still further by providing more services to a broader range of applicants, advocating that:“Special Immigrant Juvenile Minors” within the “Unaccompanied Refugee Minor” program access the same benefits as refugees, which include access to Medicaid and the same foster care services as American children.
• Legal assistance to Ukrainian and Afghan children and other URM-designated youth to legal assistance ensuring permanent residency.
• Cash assistance to full-time college or technical school students for refugees.
• Removing the need for refugees to obtain economic self-sufficiency “as quickly as possible.”
• All aspects of programmatic activities - from who is eligible to how much is spent - is authorized by Congress.
An Explosion In Funding For Refugee And Entrant Assistance Discretionary Grants:The Refugee and Entrant Assistance Grants are just one of many refugee-focused programs offered by the Administration for Children and Families. These grants are intended to serve those with the following legal status: asylees, refugees, survivors of torture, victims of trafficking, special immigrant visa holders (such as those from the Afghanistan Operation Allies Welcome) and entrants from Cuba and Haiti.
The grants cover a wide variety of programs, such as the Individual Development Accounts program, which helps eligible people save for asset purchases like a car or a house, and the Refugee Microenterprise Development program, which helps qualified people build credit through business and personal loans.
From 2013-2023, ORR doled out over $1.5 billion in grants under the Discretionary Grants category. But much of this spending occurred in 2022 and 2023. Between 2021 and 2022 grant spending went from $33 million to over $400 million. In 2023 this spending was $615,601,449.
The “Preferred Communities Program” within the Refugee and Entrant Assistance category accounted for over half of all spending for this category in 2022: $275,949,105. In 2023 that spending was up to $436,247,481. These funds were split between just seven organizations.
A summary of the benefits of ORR’s Preferred Communities Program reads: "offers intensive case management to overcome barriers” to “extremely vulnerable individuals." One grantee lists the program’s benefits:
• Emergency housing support (if necessary)
• Work authorization application
• Public benefits application
• Medical screening
• School enrollment
• Referrals to employment programs
• Cultural orientation
• Mental health referrals
• Legal assistance referrals
• Work authorization application
• Public benefits application
• Medical screening
• School enrollment
• Referrals to employment programs
• Cultural orientation
• Mental health referrals
• Legal assistance referrals
Both IRC and Church World Service have been some of biggest recipients of Refugee and Entrant Assistance Discretionary Grants over the years. From FY 2013-2023 IRC received over $180 million in these grants from ORR, and Church World Service received nearly $125 million.
IRC is a huge international nonprofit, collecting over $924 million in contributions and grants in 2020, according to tax documents. That same year IRC executive director David Miliband earned a salary of over $1 million. (Interns, however, are never paid.)
IRC provides several services related to ORR’s mission. In 2020 the organization claimed to have served 45,000 individuals in the United States with food, shelter, English classes, and legal advice. In 2023, IRC received funding for the first time from ORR’s Unaccompanied Children program: $13,005,424 for “home studies and post-release services” But even before then, the nonprofit worked in some capacity with unaccompanied children.
According to one article “IRC Los Angeles...[provides] assistance with school enrollment, acquiring state medical insurance, and obtaining pro bono legal services from local partner organizations.” As spending at ORR swelled to new heights, IRC benefitted handsomely. The organization received over $235 million in spending in FY 2023 compared to $22 million in FY 2021.
Click image for larger size.
Critical Quote: Roger Severino, former HHS director of the Office of Civil Rights, wrote in a recent report: “HHS and ORR have forgotten their original refugee-resettlement mission and instead have provided a panoply of free programs that incentivize people to come to the U.S. illegally.”
ConclusionThe Office of Refugee Resettlement is just one office in one agency, and this report focused primarily on just a few major grant programs within the office. The universe of taxpayer spending is so much larger, especially when including state and local funds as well.
As funding, mandates, and the overall number of entrants - legal and illegal - increases dramatically, American citizens and lawmakers would be wise to examine the web of incentives between the agency, nonprofit contractors, and the individuals eligible for these programs."
o
Meanwhile...
o
Pardon me, but WTF is wrong with this country?!!
A better question is what isn't?!!
Canadian Prepper, "WW3 Update: All Hell Is Breaking Loose"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 1/24/24
"WW3 Update: All Hell Is Breaking Loose"
Comments here:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"
Full screen recommended.
Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"
Beautiful...
be kind to yourself, relax and enjoy this.
"A Look to the Heavens"
“What's happening behind those houses? Pictured here are not auroras but nearby light pillars, a nearby phenomenon that can appear as a distant one.
In most places on Earth, a lucky viewer can see a Sun-pillar, a column of light appearing to extend up from the Sun caused by flat fluttering ice-crystals reflecting sunlight from the upper atmosphere. Usually these ice crystals evaporate before reaching the ground. During freezing temperatures, however, flat fluttering ice crystals may form near the ground in a form of light snow, sometimes known as a crystal fog. These ice crystals may then reflect ground lights in columns not unlike a Sun-pillar. The featured image was taken in Fort Wainwright near Fairbanks in central Alaska.”
Chet Raymo, “Mortal Soul: The Great Silence”
“Mortal Soul: The Great Silence”
by Chet Raymo
“If there is one word that should not be uttered, it is the name of – no, I will not say it. Any name diminishes. In the face of whatever it is that is most mysterious, most holy, we are properly silent. It is appropriate, I think, to praise the creation, to make a joyful noise of thanksgiving for the sensate world. But praising the Creator is another thing altogether. When we make a big racket on His behalf we are more than likely addressing an idol in our own image. What was it that Pico Iyer said? “Silence is the tribute that we pay to holiness; we slip off words when we enter a sacred place, just as we slip off shoes.” The God of the mystics whispers sweet nothings, as lovers do.
In a diary entry for “M.”, near the end of his too-short life, Thomas Merton wrote: “I cannot have enough of the hours of silence when nothing happens. When the clouds go by. When the trees say nothing. When the birds sing. I am completely addicted to the realization that just being there is enough.” The natural world was for Merton the primary revelation. He listened. He felt a presence in his heart, an awareness of the ineffable Mystery that permeates creation. It was this that drew him to the mystical tradition of Christianity, especially to the Celtic tradition of creation spirituality. It was this that attracted him to Zen.
There come now and then, perhaps more frequently in late life than previously, those moments of being (as Virginia Woolf called them) when creation grabs us by the shoulders and gives us such a shake that it rattles our teeth, when love for the world simply knocks us flat. At those moments everything we have learned about the world – the invaluable and reliable knowledge of science- seems a pale intimation of what is. In Virginia Woolf’s novel “The Waves”, the elderly Bernard says: “How tired I am of stories, how tired I am of phrases that come down beautifully with all their feet on the ground! Also, how I distrust neat designs of life that are drawn upon half sheets of notepaper. I begin to long for some little language such as lovers use, broken words, inarticulate words, like the shuffling of feet on the pavement.”
In moments of soul-stirring epiphany, it is reassuring to feel beneath our feet a floor of reliable knowledge, the safe and sure edifice of empirical learning so painstakingly constructed by the likes of Aristarchus, Galileo, Darwin and Schrodinger. But at the same time we are humbled by our ignorance, and more ready than ever to say “I don’t know,” to enter at last the great silence. Erwin Chargaff, who contributed mightily to our understanding of DNA, wrote: “It is the sense of mystery that, in my opinion, drives the true scientist; the same blind force, blindly seeing, deafly hearing, unconsciously remembering, that drives the larva into the butterfly. If the scientist has not experienced, at least a few times in his life, this cold shudder down his spine, this confrontation with an immense invisible face whose breath moves him to tears, he is not a scientist.”
The whole thrust of the mystical tradition, the whole thrust of science, is toward the great silence- an awareness of our ignorance and a willingness to say “I don’t know.” A lifetime of learning brings one at last to the face of mystery. We live in a universe of more than 2 trillion galaxies. Perhaps the number of galaxies is infinite. And the universe is silent. Achingly, terrifyingly silent. Or, rather, the universe speaks a little language such as lovers use, broken words, inarticulate words, like the shuffling of feet on the pavement.”
"Acceptance..."
"Acceptance is a crucial step forward for those who prefer the idea of living this life over simply existing within it. Accept all that you've said and what you've done, because you cannot change your past. Accept the idea of the unknown, because the future is the unknown waiting patiently to reveal itself. Accept the person you have become thus far in your journey, because you are the only person who will be there with you when you finish it. Do all of this so that you may never find yourself having to accept regret that haunts you at two a.m., leaving you sweaty and broken hearted. All you have is this minute; not this hour, or this day, or this year. Live in this minute so that you won't get stuck simply existing with your guilty past, or with nothing but anxiety for the future."
- Margaret E. Rise
"What We Can Do..."
"What we can do, we must do: we must use what we are given, and we must use it the best we can, however much or little help we have for the task. What you have been given is a hard thing - a very hard thing... But my darling, what if there were no one who could do the difficult things?”
- Robin McKinley,"Sunshine"
"In The End..."
"What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end,
of little consequence. The only consequence is what we do."
- John Ruskin
Bill Bonner, "The Fake Money Fandango"
Actual colors of your money. Look and see...
"The Fake Money Fandango"
The end of America's 'exorbitant privilege,'
a comeuppance for China and more fiat-based fiascos...
by Bill Bonner
Baltimore, Maryland - As we reported last week, there’s a time for everything. And the best time to sell US equities was in 2000, when you could get 40 ounces of gold for the Dow. Since then, it has been downhill for the flower of US industries – the 30 stocks in the Dow – which have fallen by half, in real terms (gold).
Every ship ends in a scrap yard or at the bottom of the sea. And by the 21st century the rust was apparent on the USS American Empire. It was time to head to its last port. But history, always looking for the sturm and drang of a good story, found a number of clownish captains willing to steer the great ship onto the rocks – Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden. And the voters, doing their part as citizens of a late, degenerate empire, stuck with the bumblers – electing Bush and Obama both to two terms each, despite their dereliction and manifest incompetence. And they now seem to want to re-elect Trump or Biden, no matter their age, intellectual impairments, or alleged criminality.
The thing that doomed the empire, more than any other, was its currency. When the US substituted a fake, paper-only, dollar in 1971, it set in motion a financial doomsday machine. For a long time, it seemed to Americans and foreigners alike as a blessing…an ‘exorbitant privilege.’ We didn’t have to make things; we could just print money. Since the dollar was the world’s ‘reserve currency’ other nations took it willingly and even lent it back to us by buying more of our paper, US bonds!
I.O.U.S.A.: But now, the great weakness of paper money is (once again) becoming apparent. Since it can be produced at will, it can also be lent out at will…but in a crunch, it gives way. When the US switched from an asset-backed money (dollars backed by gold) to a credit-backed system (dollars backed by an IOU from the US government ) it lost its anchor.
Gold is limited. And precious. People are careful with it. And when the wind picks up, it holds fast. Typically, in a correction or a crisis, prices fall and money becomes more valuable. People discover that they’ve made mistakes. Those who’ve put their faith in promises and speculations lose money. Asset prices fall. And those who have real money can buy up the distressed assets and get back to work.
In a fake money system, however, the money reserves at the heart of the system – ‘invested’ in US bonds – don’t become more valuable; they disappear. As Dan pointed out on Saturday, US banks have some $685 billion in unrecognized losses. These reserves were not really a solid asset, but a dubious credit, in which the world’s largest debtor promised to pay its debts with its own fake money. Now, in a pinch, they discover that they aren’t worth what they paid for them.
What can banks do? For now, it’s ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ They’re hoping the Fed will lower rates this year; then, things will go back to ‘normal;’ the value of their bonds will go back up. In other words, the only way a fake money system can hold together is for the Fed to create more of its fake money…and lend it out at fake rates. Inflate…and make the next crisis worse.
That is not just a problem for the US. It’s also a big problem for its fellow delusional, China. Americans thought they could buy things they couldn’t afford, using their new fake money. China thought they could sell products to people by lending them the money to buy them.
When Boom Turns to Bust: And now, the whole fandango has reached a new phase. Chinese factories turned out finished products at low prices; consumer prices, worldwide, fell. This left Chinese exporters with a lot of money – and an almost insatiable optimism about the future. They spent, they borrowed…they invested in more productive capacity, counting on the boom to continue.
Economies adjust to whatever conditions they’ve recently experienced. And after 40 years of the fastest economic expansion ever recorded on planet earth, many of China’s capital investments now depend on impossibly high rates of growth. Alas…the boom has come to an end, leaving the Chinese with unsold apartments, silent factories, empty trains…and billions of dollars’ worth of debt.
Here’s Charles Hugh Smith: "In broad brush, central banks got away with the illusion of permanently low inflation even as they pumped trillions in new currency into the global economy for one reason: China. In the course of a single generation, millions of Chinese peasants began punching a timeclock. This cheap labor filled the world with low-priced exports. But now… The pool of cheap, abundant Chinese labor has been completely drained. Wages in China have soared, along with inflation, and demographics is shrinking the labor pool even as the high expectations generated by 30 years of rapid expansion have diminished the labor force's willingness to perform low-paid factory work far from home and family.
And then…"…once the most productive uses of credit are satiated, the new money flows into unproductive speculation and financial skimming operations. At that point, all the new money flooding into the system drives inflation... And now, China – with billions (trillions?) of dollars’ worth of the ‘unproductive speculations,’ faces a credit meltdown. Its ‘money’ is disappearing along with its customers and its asset prices. What can it do, but replace the fake money with more fake money…just like the US?
This is probably not the end of China’s drive for full spectrum dominance of the world economy, but it looks like the end of the 1979-2021 boom. What will it mean for the US? Stay tuned…"
Dan, I Allegedly, "The Next Red Flag Is Here"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 1/23/24
"The Next Red Flag Is Here"
"We have massive banking problems right now. I just had a relative not only get his credit card compromised, but he went to use his debit card from Wells Fargo, and they had said that the entire system was down. People need to get ready for the banking system collapse. This is the next red flag for our economy. Massive bank branches are closing and this is just the beginning."
Comments here:
Bill Bonner, "Face Value"
"Face Value"
Fraud, scams, lies and other election year modi operandi...
by Bill Bonner
Youghal, Ireland - "In private life, misinformation is a mischievous delight. We bluff at cards. We wear lifts in our shoes. We embellish our resumes and exaggerate our affections. But, in public life, lies are a damned nuisance. Hold on…
This morning, it is gray and rainy. Just as it was yesterday morning. And the day before. We escaped the winter of Maryland for the winter of Ireland. Here it is not as cold. It rarely snows. “If ye want snow, go back to America,” explained a taxi driver. “If it snows here, the whole country comes to a halt. We have no snow plows. Not even any salt trucks. We just wait for it to melt.”
There were traces of snow in the mountains when we arrived. But it rained all weekend, a terrific storm, with high winds coming off the Atlantic and falling tree limbs. The West Coast – in County Clare and Galway – got hit hard, with power outages, trees down and flooding. For us…we just keep a cozy fire in the kitchen; and a pot of tea ‘on the hob.’ Meanwhile…
Fraud and Farce: In the news today, the Chinese are taking a page out of America’s "Handbook for Fooling the Public". It’s the Greenspan Put! By law, the government is going to make stocks more valuable. Bloomberg: "China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion." "Chinese authorities are considering a package of measures to stabilize the slumping stock market, according to people familiar with the matter, after earlier attempts to restore investor confidence fell short and prompted Premier Li Qiang to call for “forceful” steps.
In China, they are proposing to manipulate asset prices by taking money from a number of sources, including state-owned businesses, and buying stocks. In America, the authorities did a kind of trifecta of deception: printing fake money, lending it at fake rates, to produce fake prices on Wall Street.
"
Fraud is the key element of almost all public policy. It is not the icing on the cake; it is the sugar and the flour. We have a ‘defense’ department that is expected to protect us from foreign attacks. But since foreigners rarely attack us, we attack them. And now, fresh from its victories in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US firepower industry begins a new war against its most pathetic enemy yet – a desert tribe that doesn’t even control its own sh*thole country. Maybe this one will be a winner.
All for the Worse: At home, we spend trillions on various programs that are nothing more than boondoggles and giveaways. The Inflation Reduction Act, for instance, had nothing to do with reducing inflation; instead, it gave a big dollop of tooth-rotting subsidies to ‘green energy’ lobbyists while helping to raise consumer prices at the fastest rate in 40 years.
Fraudulent, scammy, counterfeit – public policies almost invariably make things worse. And we can’t afford them anyway. We are supposed to have a marvelous economy, but that too is a scam; we cannot afford to pay for current programs, let alone pay off those from the past. At the apex of so much tomfoolery is the money that enables it. No longer an asset, since 1971, the US dollar is a liability. It is a promise by the largest debtor on the planet to pay up. With what? More fake money. As much as needed.
And now…investors, in keeping with the spirit of mendacity, are ready for it. They believe the Fed will cut its key lending rate. Yesterday, the Dow hit a new all-time high. USA Today: "Wall Street hits record high following a 2-year round trip scarred by inflation." "Wall Street returned to record heights and capped a punishing, two-year round trip dogged by high inflation and worries about a possible recession that seemed inevitable but hasn’t arrived."
A Fake Calm - Meanwhile, inflation is going down everywhere – imports, producer prices, retail prices, wholesale prices, energy, food, consumer expectations, business expectations – you name it. (WHAT?!!! - CP) And according to the real-time Truflation index, it has dropped from over 6% in 2022 to just 1.85% today. (Absolutely total lies! - CP) That’s under the Fed’s 2% target. What’s going on? We’ll know more later, but for now we seem to be in a saccharin spot…a fake calm somewhere between real disasters. The big question is whether the Primary Trend really did change in July 2020…or whether that too was just another fake-out. After all, it’s an election year; you can’t take anything at face value. More to come…"
"Relax..."
"Relax. They're not going to kill us. They're going to
TRY and kill us. And that is a very different thing. "
- Steve Voake, "The Dreamwalker's Child"
“Parasitic Derivatives: $1.5 – 2.4 Quadrillion Dollars, Too Big to Understand”
“Parasitic Derivatives: $1.5 – 2.4 Quadrillion Dollars,
Too Big to Understand”
By David Hague
“I recently returned from two weeks of ‘high level’ meetings with a group of Bankers [this is code for two weeks of subsidized debauchery with bankers] in Rome. As I sat at my desk, I was hoping to motivate myself to pursue a more chaste and pure existence. Unfortunately the Polar Vortex experienced by North America drained me of my good intentions. The bone chilling cold once again had me reaching for my trusty bottle of Jack Daniels for warmth and inspiration. My time in Rome had not been completely ‘wasted’, so to speak. I had secured a contract from the European Central Bank [ECB] to research the topic of Derivatives. I was to present my findings at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos later that month.
One Quadrillion Dollars: Too Big to Understand: Dear Reader, please resist your natural instinct to click away from this commentary at the mere mention of the word ‘Derivatives’. I am acutely aware of the boredom and befuddlement that this word instills in you. At this point I would simply remind you that the derivatives market is estimated to exceed one quadrillion dollars. [This incredibly large number is actually an accurate estimate of the size of the derivatives marketplace]. (In addition, unfunded liabilities, like medical care and pensions, are at least $300 trillion globally. If we add gross derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion, which are likely to turn into real debt as counterparties fail, the total debt and liabilities are above $2 quadrillion. Source - CP) Despite the fact the derivatives market eclipses the market capitalization of the NYSE by an exponential factor, it is not discussed, reported or tracked because it is simply too complicated and opaque. Warren Buffet’s, comment about ‘weapons of mass financial destruction’ seem to be the beginning and end of any discussion on the topic.
Derivatives are a parasitic financial instrument: For those of you who are unschooled on the topic of derivatives, allow me to explain. Derivatives are abstract financial instruments, which, like parasites, can attach themselves to all manner of stocks, bonds, mortgages, commodity, debt obligations, currency exchange, interest rate fluctuations… in short, anything. Derivatives exist in the ‘twilight zone’ of the banking industry. Like black holes, their presence and massive influence are acknowledged yet the true influence on the global economy of this quadrillion dollar ‘event horizon’ is only theoretical. The near catastrophic disasters at Barings, JP Morgan and AIG are small examples of their destructive powers. However I will offer you Investorpedia’s more clinical definition. “A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties.”
You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, {Kenny Rogers}: One might think of derivatives as a random game of online poker: you don’t know who your opponents are [your counterparty], you do not know if you will be paid [counterparty risk], you do not know if the game is legitimate, [lack of regulation], and your opponents are probably able to see what cards you are holding, [market domination by large banks]. As well, you are making bets that in many instances neither you nor your opponents fully grasp [complexity of the market]. With each wager you are potentially risking not only your current assets, but your future assets as well. [Leverage]. In some cases you do not know how much you are betting. Imagine as well, that you play this game every day with trillions of dollars that you do not have. This is the global derivatives market.
It is all Greek to me: Alternately, as derivatives are often created as a form of insurance, think of them as an insurance policy in which you:
• Do not know the name, address or any contact information relating to your insurer.
• Do not know if your insurer has the resources to pay a claim.
• Do not understand the insurance contract as it is written in Greek.
• Must rely on a shadowy third party [ISDA] to decide what constitutes a claim. [Credit event]
• Do not know whether your insurer is itself vulnerable to the particular risk you have contracted with it to insure.
His moral lassitude allowed him to excel: Dear Reader, I digress, let me return to my narrative. The aforementioned lucrative contract was secured by two key factors. The first factor was my friendship with Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre, the European Central Bank’s [ECB] Global Director of Statistical Creation. My relationship with such an esteemed member of the ECB traced its roots back to Gustavo’s days as a bookie for Wall Street’s elite. I referred so much business to him we became very good friends. His station in life took a remarkable turn when a senior member of the ECB, while in New York on a ‘fact finding mission’ [this is code for visiting his favorite escort] made an outrageously large and incorrect wager on the outcome of the 2010 World Cup. (Perhaps unsurprisingly, the term ‘derivative’ is commonly used in sports betting!) The only way the debt could be settled was for the banker to offer Gustavo a highly paid sinecure at the ECB. Gustavo became the Global Director of Statistical Creation with the responsibility of making up statistics to support whatever fantastical and deranged policies Central Banks around the world were initiating. Remarkably Gustavo’s aptitude for numbers, coupled with his moral lassitude allowed him to excel at his job. It was Gustavo who invented the term ‘Quantitative Easing’ as a benign euphemism for runaway money printing.
Where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to be wise’: The second factor that secured the contract for me was a chance remark I made as Gustavo and I enjoyed a ‘working lunch’, with several senior executives who represented many of the world’s largest banks. The working lunch was held at Rome’s exclusive Blue Moon Gentleman’s Club. As the featured dancer left the stage I happened to mention to the assorted luminaries that I had read an article on the subject of derivatives. The bankers looked at me with something akin to awe and reverence. Gustavo whispered to me that the topic of derivatives had been discussed in a recent conference call by the world’s bankers. The conclusion reached at that time was that derivatives were too boring and too complicated for bankers to grasp. Despite JP Morgan’s very public, expensive and monumentally stupid 5 billon dollar derivatives trading loss bankers still choose to remain cocooned in a ‘Cloak of Ignorance’ as it relates to derivatives. Thomas Gray’s lament that ‘where ignorance is bliss, ’tis folly to be wise’ could easily be the mission statement of the global banking industry.
I had read a complete article, I was a ‘de facto expert’: Dear reader, I am not being rude and offensive in my remarks about JP Morgan. Surely you would agree with me that any large bank that loses $5 billion in derivatives trading is ignorant of the properties and risks of derivatives? The fact that I had actually read a complete article on the subject made me a de facto expert on the topic. Gustavo, in an act of kindness, seized the opportunity on my behalf and pressed his colleagues to retain me to research the topic and make a presentation at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos. Thus I found myself preparing to dazzle the world’s financial elite with my insights into the risks and opportunities presented by the global derivatives market. In a rush to complete the deal before the next dancer took the stage it was agreed that I would receive the standard banker’s honorarium of $5,000/hour up to a maximum of ‘whatever it takes’.
At $5,000/hr., you would surely not expect me to be brief: I sat at my desk, sipping ‘Gentleman Jack‘ while I looked out at the bleak weather that made Brooklyn so depressing in the winter. My TV was tuned to CNBC, as I waited for Wall Street to open. I put my crack pipe in its case. Dear reader like many of you [especially those of you who work in the banking industry], I have learned all too well, the dangers of mixing crack cocaine with whiskey on an empty stomach. [Have we not all indulged, to our regret, that particular venial sin at least once?] I collected my thoughts and began to write my lengthy tome on the derivatives market. Dear reader at $5,000/hr., you would surely not expect me to be brief.
Lions and Tigers and Bears [and derivatives] Oh My!: I do not want to frighten you. However I will share with you some facts about derivatives that will have you reacting as nervously as Dorothy did in the Wizard of OZ when confronted with the thought of Lions and Tigers and Bears. ‘Derivatives, Oh My’, will I suspect be the words that escape your lips.
• Size of the derivatives market: 1.5 – 2.4 QUADRILLION dollars
• Size of Global Stock and bond markets: 175 trillion dollars
• Who regulates the Derivatives market? LOL, Regulation is a ‘work in progress’ dominated by the big banks.
How dangerous are derivatives? They almost destroyed the world’s largest insurance company, AIG, as well as the global economy. Seriously, you don’t remember? Just Google the words AIG and collapse. Alternately you might call Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan and ask him if Derivatives are dangerous. Have recent regulatory changes made the world economy less likely to implode from a derivative fuelled explosion? Actually as one might expect, thanks to regulatory enhancements that had to run the gauntlet of bank lobbyists prior to their approval, the world’s economy is in more danger than ever from a derivatives inspired meltdown.
‘Duck Dynasty’ and ‘Real Housewives’ to the rescue: How much attention does the Main Street pay to the world’s largest and riskiest casino? [AKA: the Derivatives market]. If one were to Google the word derivatives, one will get 34 million ‘hits’. Alternately, if one does a similar search for the words stocks bonds and markets one will get 400 million ‘hits’. The 34 million ‘hits’ generated by a Google search of the word derivatives compares unfavorably with the 37 million ‘hits’ generated by a search of the term ‘Real Housewives of Atlanta’, the 209 million ‘hits’ generated by a search of the term ‘Duck Dynasty’ or the 713 million ‘hits’ generated by searching the word ‘Sex’. One must conclude that only when derivatives are discussed by one of the ‘Real Housewives of Atlanta’ posing nude in bed with one of the cast members of ‘Duck Dynasty’ will derivatives receive the attention they deserve.
Reality bites: Derivatives can only be discussed as ‘Fake News’: Where can one find insights and coverage of the Derivatives Market in the mainstream media? Is Fox News or CNN my best choice? Sadly Dear reader your best choice would have been The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Despite the calamitous risk and obvious importance of this topic only Mr. Stewart and his team dared to share information with the general public. Given the outlandish and frightening risks derivatives constitute to the Global Economy, perhaps Mr. Stewart was correct that it can only be discussed in the ‘Fake News’ format.
Derivatives: better suited for Ripley’s Believe it or not than the Wall Street Journal: How bizarre is the derivatives market? How is the concept of money for nothing propagated by the derivatives market? What is the difference between a chump and a champion in the derivatives market? I will leave it to Shah Gilani in his excellent post in “Wall Street: Insights and Indictments“ to explain. Suffice to say that one is able to buy insurance in the derivatives market. One can then cause the insured event to occur by collaborating with a third party. All that remains is to collect the insurance proceeds. [To be clear the proceeds are usually in the tens of millions of dollars.] The derivatives market makes the Ponzi-like money printing of the Central banks look like ‘Amateur Hour’.
Who needs ‘Crack’? Dear reader, usually I needed a little help from my friend Mr. Crack to feel as paranoid and euphoric as I did at this moment. Paranoid, because it was clear to me that the derivatives market was truly a weapon of mass financial destruction. Euphoric because I knew that my research would make my ‘Derivatives’ presentation at the World Economic Forum a groundbreaking ‘tour de force’ that would vault me to the forefront of ‘talking heads’ that pass for experts on mainstream media. Fame, fortune, a book deal and perhaps that elusive Nobel Prize would surely follow. My twenty minutes of painstaking research, had made me one of the world’s foremost experts on this complex subject. [BTW Dear Reader by reaching this point in my commentary, you surely now know more about derivatives than most bankers and traders on Wall Street. You should be quite pleased.]
David, you are an imbecile: I decided to reach out to my pal Gustavo and share some of my findings. I knew that it was 3:30 in the afternoon in Paris so I would be able to catch Gustavo just as he arrived for another day of work. “Gustavo”, I intoned, breathless with excitement. “I have uncovered some startling, controversial, and frightening information about derivatives. The luminaries and leading lights who attend my presentation in Davos will be utterly gobsmacked by my revelations. The media will undoubtedly ensure that my findings go viral. The topic of derivatives will no longer exist only in the dark shadows of the banking industry. The danger that derivatives pose to the global economy will permeate the consciousness of Main Street.” Gustavo sighed, “David, I do not know if you are stupid or naïve. Every September when you bet $1,000 that the perennially atrocious Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup, I assumed you were simply ingenuous. Your comments today have convinced me that you are an imbecile. Let me assure you that those will not be the findings that you present at the World Economic Forum. Rather you will inform the world that derivatives are a financial instrument that is being used by brilliant and prudent financial professionals to mitigate risk and make the world a safer place.”
The ‘Truth Will Out’: “Gustavo”, I groaned, “that would be a lie. I cannot in good conscience, sacrifice my integrity, my honor, my core beliefs and my good name simply to placate Wall Street and the Central Banks. I have a responsibility to my readers on Main Street to inform them, to warn them, to prepare them for the likely financial chaos that derivatives will cause”. “Gustavo”, I said with iron willed determination, “the Truth Will Out”. “David”, Gustavo snarled, “If you change the tenor of your presentation and indicate that derivatives are the most benign form of financial instrument, somewhat akin to Treasury bills, we will double your fee”.
Move along nothing to see here: Dear Reader, in summary let me say that derivatives are the most benign form of financial instrument, somewhat akin to treasury bills. Gustavo’s immutable logic and persuasive argument was instrumental in helping me reach the correct conclusion regarding the risks to the Global economy posed by derivatives. So Dear Reader, move along, there is nothing to see here.”
"$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen"
"$2.5 Quadrillion Disaster Waiting to Happen –
Egon von Greyerz"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"There is sufficiency in the world
for Man's need but not for his greed."
- Mahatma Gandhi
"Egon von Greyerz (EvG) stores gold for clients at the biggest private gold vault in the world buried deep in the Swiss Alps. EvG is a financial and precious metals expert. EvG is a former Swiss banker and an expert in risk. He says the risk in the global markets has never been this high.
EvG explains, “Credit has increased dramatically through derivatives. All instruments being issued now by banks, pension funds, stock funds, it’s all synthetic. There is no real underlying payments in anything almost. Therefore, my estimate for derivatives would be at least $2 quadrillion, and I think that is probably conservative. Then, we have debt on top of that of $300 trillion, and we also have a couple hundred trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities. So, we are talking about $2.5 quadrillion, and that’s with a global GDP of $80 trillion. So, there is a disaster waiting to happen, and especially because all this created money has created no value whatsoever. I always knew this would collapse, and it’s taken longer than I expected, but I think we are at the end of a major era.
These derivatives, at some point in the coming few years, will actually turn into debt. Central banks will have to cover all the outstanding liabilities of the commercial banks as we are seeing now with Credit Suisse, Bank of England and etc. This is going to happen across the board. Whether it’s called derivatives or called debt, as far as I am concerned, it’s the same thing. It will have the same effect on the world financial system, which will be disastrous, of course.”
EvG says the derivative markets were simply a way for financial institutions to carry debt and not show it on their balance sheets. In the end, everything will balance out. EvG goes on to say, “Nobody can repay the debt, and they can’t even pay interest. So, therefore, when the debt implodes, so will the assets that were financed by this debt. So, both sides of the balance sheet have to come down. Whether it comes down by 50%, 75% or 90%, I don’t know. All I think about is risk, and the financial system will not survive in its present form. Central banks only use one kind of medicine, and that is more printed money. Now, you are getting negative returns on printed money. So, that is not going to save anything.
Sadly we are looking at a situation when this system will start to implode. The rich are still rich, but the poor are really poor. Overall in the UK, Germany and most European countries, people don’t have enough money to live. This is a human disaster already. With food costs going up 25% and energy going up the same and gasoline, interest rates and rents, people don’t have enough money, and that is happening now. It’s a human disaster of mega proportions. It’s so sad, and governments will have no chance of doing anything about it. The risk is increasing exponentially, and it is going to get worse.” There is much more in the 43-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management, which can be found on GoldSwitzerland.com.
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