So, we rise from the rubble...
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
Bill Bonner, "Fighting the Fed"
"Fighting the Fed"
A worldwide bond slide, stocks roll over and...
hey, what's that cracking sound?
by Bill Bonner
"Don't bother calling to say you're leaving alone,
'Cause there's a fool on every corner when you're trying to get home."
~ Rosanne Cash
Poitou, France - "There was no joy on Wall Street yesterday. Little by little, day by day, it is becoming clearer: getting home won’t be easy: ‘Buying the dip’ is not a good idea. Fighting the Fed is a losing proposition. And the Fed is no longer supporting asset prices.
Remember, this is a transition period. It’s hard to get a sense of what is really going on. But nearly three years ago, it looked to us as if the Primary Trend had reversed. We thought we were at the beginning of a major bear market. Stocks and bonds were headed lower. The bond market peaked out in the summer of 2020. Since then US bonds are down more than 15%. But consumer prices are down nearly 20%. So, if you get your principal back now, you’re taking a loss of about 35%.
Worldwide Bond Slide: Here’s Bloomberg on the worldwide bond slide: "Treasuries Selloff Goes Global as Benchmark US Yields Near 5%." "Traders are bracing for 10-year US yields to top 5% for the first time since 2007 after they jumped to 4.85% this week. The correlation between Bloomberg’s gauge of global securities and an index of Treasuries has reached the highest since March 2020. A relentless selloff in US government bonds is sparking tumult across major bond markets, as traders come to grips with the realization that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer."
As for stocks…it took another 18 months (after bond yields bottomed out), but they finally turned down in the beginning of 2022. At yesterday’s close, Dow investors were about 10% down, in nominal terms. Add the 20% loss of purchasing power and they’re off 30%. These are serious setbacks. "Your first loss is your best loss,” say the old timers. By that they mean that when you see the trend going against you, you should go home as soon as possible.
Higher for Longer: And even CNBC is catching on: "That cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. Instead, this is more a break in a narrative, one that has widespread repercussions. The narrative in question is the one where the Federal Reserve holds interest rates low and everyone on Wall Street gets to enjoy the fruits. That's changing. In its place comes a story in which rates are going to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb."
‘Higher for longer’ is causing cracks in many different mirrors. Home buyers, for example, are looking at 30-year fixed-rate mortgages that are butting up against 8%. That’s a big change from the low of 2020, when you could get a 30-year rate of just 2.65%. There must be many people kicking themselves for not locking in that low rate when they had the chance.
Our baseline assumption is that higher interest rates will trigger a financial crisis. But they’ll cause an economic crisis too. Many homeowners with low-rate mortgages can’t afford to sell their houses. They’ve got a sweet deal; they need to hold onto it. Other people – looking at much higher interest payments – can’t afford to buy.
Low Rate Fantasy: Looking at housing as a percentage of earnings, we see it reaching the highest level ever recorded, at 43% of median income. The result? One of the nation’s key industries – housing – goes into hibernation. Pending house sales are the lowest they’ve been since April 2020 – when the country was locked down. And housing starts are running at barely half the level they hit in 1973 – half a century ago, when the country had 120 million fewer people.
But the cracks and crumbling aren't limited to the housing sector. The basic building brick for the whole world’s financial edifice is the US 10-year T-bond. Yesterday, the real yield (adjusted for inflation) on the 10-year rose to 2.27%. That was what it was in January 2009, just after Ben Bernanke began his disastrous ultra-low rate fantasy (as if you could actually make people better off by falsifying the cost of capital!)…the proximate cause of today’s financial distress.
Until Bernanke went off the rails, the US financial system retained at least the appearance of sanity. It could walk and talk, more or less like a normal economy. People remembered where they lived; they could still get home. It cost money (positive interest rates) to borrow back then…which limited debt to what people could afford. But then, after the Fed dragged interest rates below zero, in real terms, the sky was the limit. That is what made the US financial world what it became – 2009-2020 – cloud cuckoo land, where fake capitalists borrowed fake money at fake interest rates in order to make fake profits. Those profits disappear when the whole fake hullabaloo comes to an end. Then, we suddenly sober up, look for our car keys….and try to remember how to get home. Stay tuned..."
Dan, I Allegedly, "The IRS is Coming for You"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 10/4/23
"The IRS is Coming for You"
"The IRS has decided to redefine wealth. Many people in the country that were just considered above average are now considered wealthy and the target for the IRS. We are seeing so many people have problems with their businesses and with getting by."
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John Wilder, "The Big Short – The Next Step Down"
"The Big Short – The Next Step Down"
by John Wilder
“Our investment-strategy was simple. People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood.” – "The Big Short"
"I watched "The Big Short" the other night. It’s about the financial system and the shenanigans that led to the near collapse of the Western financial world, but presented with elements of light-hearted comedy, so, of course I enjoyed it. And having Margot Robbie sitting in a bubble bath describing mortgage-backed securities, subprime loans, and credit default swaps while drinking champagne was genius.
The premise of the movie is that several groups of people figured out that the housing market was fraudulent, and that any human with a heartbeat (and, as described in the movie, at least one dog) could borrow enough money to buy a house. Why not? House prices only go up. There have been many people who have done excellent pieces describing the sheer insanity of the housing market and the incestuous relationships between the lenders and rating agencies that kept the party going with cheap money far too long. You can read them, but they don’t feature a picture of Margot Robbie in a bathtub.
In my personal experience, a bank that rhymes with Hells Rarmo offered me a loan for over six times my annual income with only my stated salary as the basis. My response, “You know, I could never afford to pay that back. Why would you offer a loan that big to me?” “I know, but I’m required to tell you about it,” was the answer from the uncomfortable voice on the other end. Even I could see the con from there, especially since they offered to lend me my downpayment.
The next home loan I got (after the collapse, in 2009) required enough personal information from me that I had to hire a proctologist to help me fill out the paperwork. The result of the Great Recession that followed was a retooling of the industry, bankers and people from the ratings agencies went to prison for fraud, and the government decided to create a system of sound money so these sorts of manias were tamed. Okay, you can laugh now, because none of that really happened. The government just shoved so much money down the throats of the banks that they got even richer for manipulating the system in ways that would make Al Capone’s scar twitch.
What I saw during the run up to the disaster is that the economic taint (heh heh, I said taint) from the housing bubble spilled everywhere. The place I noticed it first was that waitresses became worse. Why? During the bubble, everyone upgraded their job, and good, smart waitresses became, (spins wheel) mortgage brokers and realtors. The mark of a really good economy is crappy customer service.
I wrote a couple of weeks back about how I can see this happening in restaurants locally here:
"The Invisible Recession." "People are hurting, and the first thing to cut are the luxuries. Some people take eating out at McDonald’s© as a luxury versus heating up leftover lasagna, and now they’re bringing the lasagna. Garfield® would be proud, but McDonald’s® rarely makes money from cartoon cats.
Add in gasoline prices that are so high they make prescription drugs look cheap, and the squeeze is here. CarMax© just recently announced that they’ve taken a 10% hit last quarter in number of cars sold. People don’t buy cars when they’re worried about choosing between day-old lasagna and a McChicken™ sandwich."
The biggest tension in The Big Short came from the fact that the guys who saw the fraud went all-in. In one case, Micheal Burry put $1.3 billion into “insurance policies” that would pay multiples of the invested amount if the mortgages bonds started collapsing the way that Burry was sure that they would.
Burry made a $1.3 billion bet, and on top of that, he had to pay monthly premiums in the millions to keep the policy in force. Yet, even as the housing market started to fail, the housing bonds weren’t failing. If those bonds didn’t start falling Burry and his fund would be buried. John Maynard Keynes famously said that “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” proving that he was at least occasionally right. They did fail, and Burry made his investors rich, just in the nick of time before his fund became insolvent. Burry (according to rumors) ended up making over $800 million during the financial crisis.
All this brings us to where we are today. I might be wrong, but what I’m seeing everywhere I look are people that are at the end of their rope. The reason? Because we never took the pain and we didn’t clean up the financial system and make it a servant rather than a master. But I have a plan. Maybe Margot Robbie could explain our way out of this one?"
"Urgent: Do This Today Before 2:20 PM Eastern Time!"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, AM 10/4/23
"Urgent: Do This Today Before 2:20 PM Eastern Time!"
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"Emergency Alert Test Sounds Off Today! What You Need To Know!"
Adventures With Danno, AM 10//4/23
"Emergency Alert Test Sounds Off Today!
What You Need To Know!"
"We are discussing the E.A.T., or Emergency Alarm Test that is occurring all across the United States this afternoon. We discuss what it is and how we need to prepare for the future."
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Tuesday, October 3, 2023
"Markets Crushed Today, More Trouble Coming; People Will Cry When They Lose It All"
Jeremiah Babe, 10/3/23
"Markets Crushed Today, More Trouble Coming;
People Will Cry When They Lose It All"
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Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal" 10/3/23
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal 10/3/23
"Markets Crashing; Gold Down; Oil Up: What's Next"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times.
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"A Look to the Heavens"
"Is this one galaxy or two? The jumble of stars, gas, and dust that is NGC 520 is now thought to incorporate the remains of two separate disk galaxies. A defining component of NGC 520 - as seen in great detail in the featured image from the Hubble Space Telescope - is its band of intricately interlaced dust running vertically down the spine of the colliding galaxies. A similar looking collision might be expected in a few billion years when our disk Milky Way Galaxy to collides with our large-disk galactic neighbor Andromeda (M31).
The collision that defines NGC 520 started about 300 million years ago. Also known as Arp 157, NGC 520 lies about 100 million light years distant, spans about 100 thousand light years, and can be seen with a small telescope toward the constellation of the Fish (Pisces). Although the speeds of stars in NGC 520 are fast, the distances are so vast that the battling pair will surely not change its shape noticeably during our lifetimes."
The Poet: Fernando Pessoa, “I Don’t Know If The Stars Rule The World”
“I Don’t Know If The Stars Rule The World”
“I don’t know if the stars rule the world,
Or if Tarot or playing cards
Can reveal anything.
I don’t know if the rolling of dice
Can lead to any conclusion.
But I also don’t know
If anything is attained
By living the way most people do.
Yes, I don’t know
If I should believe in this daily rising sun
Whose authenticity no one can guarantee me,
Or if it would be better (because better or more convenient)
To believe in some other sun,
One that shines even at night,
Some profound incandescence of things,
Surpassing my understanding.
For now...
(Let’s take it slow)
For now
I have an absolutely secure grip on the stair-rail,
I secure it with my hand –
This rail that doesn’t belong to me
And that I lean on as I ascend...
Yes... I ascend...
I ascend to this:
I don’t know if the stars rule the world.”
- Fernando Pessoa
"15 Shortages That Will Hit Stores This Winter"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 10/3/23
"15 Shortages That Will Hit Stores This Winter"
"As we approach the busiest season of the year for supply chains, new product shortages seem to be popping up every week. From cleaning products to breakfast staples to auto equipment, the list of out-of-stock items continues to grow, and conditions are likely to get very chaotic at U.S. stores as shoppers prepare for end-of-the-year festivities.
For instance, another fall veggie is in short supply this year. As we previously reported, droughts and flooding resulted in a significant drop in pumpkin production in 2023. And the same has happened to squash crops. Not only in the U.S. but all around the world, squash producers have been witnessing some of the worst weather conditions in history. During the planting season, the soil is too moist, which can lead to early spoilage and fungus. Meanwhile, during the growing season, drought has led to some of the hottest temperatures on record, which can alter the veggie’s flavor and development. Now that harvest season has begun, many farmers are having to discard a big share of their produce instead of sending it to the stores. In the coming weeks, we will start seeing the effects of this at our local grocery stores. If you spot the veggie on shelves, don’t miss the chance to buy it early in the season, because later on prices will go through the roof, and that’s if you’re lucky to find it.
Moreover, a hazelnut shortage is about to trigger huge price hikes for Nutella in the coming months, and make the delicious chocolate spread harder to find at U.S. stores. The product is made with Turkish hazelnuts, but this year, the country, - which produces 70% of the world’s hazelnuts, - reported a sharp decline in hazelnut supply after a hail storm destroyed hazel flowers at a critical moment in the growing season. Hazelnut production is influenced by various factors, including weather conditions, agricultural practices, and global market demand. In California, the U.S. biggest grower of the nut, abnormally dry weather damaged crops and impacted this year’s harvest, causing hazelnut production to fall 2.9% compared to 2022 levels, and failing to provide a supply boost to food makers. Right now, hazelnut prices are already soaring, up by 60% since January, a 10-year-high. The Ferrero Group, who make Nutella, consumes nearly 25% of the entire world's supply of hazelnuts, and they are likely to pass on those increased costs to consumers in the form of higher prices over the next couple of months, meaning that now is the time to purchase this sweet chocolate paste if you don’t want to spend the holiday season without it.
Many things can happen to our supply chains before 2023 ends, and by the look of things right now, more shortages are likely to emerge over the next couple of months. It seems like this is just the beginning of a major crisis that will rock the country through the fall and winter. Even people's favorite restaurant dishes, including guac and seafood, are getting far more expensive and harder to find given that production levels are failing to meet consumer demand. The months ahead will be marked by empty shelves and price hikes as the U.S. industry faces a myriad of challenges that we're about to expose in today's video. We tracked the latest supply shortages gripping the system and which products you should start stocking up in October. So let's check this list!"
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Gregory Mannarino, "Expect A Major Bank To Fail"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/3/23
"Expect A Major Bank To Fail"
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And so it begins...
John Wilder, "Leftists: They Hate You"
"Leftists: They Hate You"
by John Wilder
"My feeling is they should open it-the border, let everybody pour in, and then the answer which is, well then there will be all these problems. Yes, there should be. It shouldn’t be so great here, is what I’m saying, in America." That’s a quote from Louis, C.K., the “comedian”.
After having read a bit about him, I’m pretty sure that Louis hates himself deeply. But he also hates you. A quick Internet search shows him with a net worth of $35 million, which shows you don’t have to have a billionaire to be as big a tool as Bill Gates.
The bigger idea is that this is the way that most Leftists think, on those rare occasions a thought occurs to them. As I’ve addressed before, Leftists think more highly of people the farther away they are from themselves up to and including rocks: Leftism Is A Death Cult That May Kill Us All.
This graph shows something pretty amazing. Most groups prefer their own company. Most black people like to hang around black people. Most Asians like to hang around Asians. But white Leftists? The reflection of their self-hatred is so great that they actively dislike being around other white people. Now, I could understand that if you were Chelsea Clinton, but, as shown by every other racial group since the dawn of history, it’s abnormal and dysfunctional.
Those are the people who are in charge of the border right now.
Wonder why we’re taking on illegals like Johnny Depp attracts women with low self-esteem? It’s because the Left hates the United States because they either despise it, or feel guilty. So, their solution is to take it over, loot it, remove the things that created wealth in the first place, and still pretend it’s the United States.
The situation, however, appears to have finally reached the breaking point as illegals are swamping the southern border in numbers greater than at any time in history. To be clear, these aren’t refugees, they’re economic migrants that are coming here because their country sucks. They’re being enticed to take this journey indirectly by the United States government through the money they give to NGOs that feed the illegals, give them money for and during the trip ($800 a month, I hear), and set up showers and beds and transport. That’s our government – the only things it does really well are the things that harm its actual citizens.
When the illegals get here, they aren’t a net economic benefit. They actually increase housing costs, depress wages, and are causing government welfare costs to skyrocket because the jobs they get don’t pay for the public costs that they create. Expanding the economy by bringing in more immigrants is like improving your financial situation by taking on more debt.
Oh. I just remembered how the Feds deal with budgets. Never mind.
Even Leftists like Louis C.K. are sometimes inadvertently honest in their utter lack of care for the United States. I’m sort of sad that the U.S. government shutdown didn’t happen. If it had, the U.S. Border Patrol could have stayed home and let illegals in, rather than just hang out by the border and cut razor wire to let illegals in. We’ve reached the point where we’d have fewer illegals if the Border Patrol stayed home.
Since the illegals have started leaving Texas, though, Biden went from Trump’s “Remain in Mexico plan” to, “Put the illegals in Red States where we could swap the vote” to “Remain in Texas” as the illegals converged on Blue Cities and are costing billions and even Leftists there are starting to come to their senses.
As the economy falters (it is, more on that on Wednesday, probably), and as the unending streams of illegals continue to surge into the United States, my bet is that the tolerance for illegals will soon drop as jobs disappear and the charmed life they live with subsidized food and housing makes a mockery of the conditions of the average American citizen.
In many places, the result will be the expulsion of (at least) illegals as people cease to want them to be around. I would predict that this will not end well. And I predict that many of the illegals will wish that they had never come to the United States as it will become increasingly hostile to them in many regions. The failure to stop these mass migrations will end the way it has every single time in history – with fire and pain, all because we didn’t have the courage to send them back in the beginning.
Me? I think that Louis C.K. shouldn’t have it so great. He should have to take about 750 illegals into his house, feed and care for them. Louis hasn’t invited illegals into his house. He hasn’t given his money away. Like any good Leftist, his generosity is overwhelming. At least until it comes to spending his own money or inconveniencing himself in any way. And he still hates you, and doesn’t see why it should be so great here, in America."
Dan, I Allegedly, "Get Ready for a 3 1/2 Day Work Week and Living to 100"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 10/3/23
"Get Ready for a 3 1/2 Day
Work Week and Living to 100"
"Artificial intelligence is going to change everything in our lives. The CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon has gone to the extreme with where he thinks this is headed. He said that we will have a 3 1/2 day work week. He also said that cancer will be cured because of artificial intelligence. He finished it by saying that people will live to be 100 years old."
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Bill Bonner, "The Final War"
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"The Final War"
As America Marches Toward The Inflationary
Depression of '26-'28, The Last Battle Looms Large...
by Bill Bonner
Poitou, France - “The brain is unable to distinguish whether information is right or wrong; is led to believe statements or messages it has already heard as true, even though these may be false; accepts statements as true, if backed by evidence, with no regards to the authenticity of that evidence.”
“At the political and strategic level, it would be wrong to underestimate the impact of emotions… Emotions - hope, fear, humiliation - shape the world and international relations with the echo-chamber effect of social media.”
~ "Cognitive Warfare," - NATO
"News Flash: America’s sanctions don’t seem to be working. ZeroHedge: "When western nations rolled out a grand plan to throttle Russian oil imports and impose sanctions on Kremlin energy exports, we - and many others - laughed: after all, we have repeatedly seen how toothless western sanctions are when seeking to contain "rogue regime" oil profits, from Iran (which is pretty much selling oil to China at max capacity) to Venezuela and onward. One year later, our laughter has been well justified, because as the FT reports, "Russia has succeeded in avoiding G7 sanctions on most of its oil exports", a shift in trade flows that will boost the Kremlin’s revenues as crude rises towards $100 a barrel, and as Russian Urals prices hit $80, the highest level in over a year."
Sanctions against China aren’t doing so well either. AP: "Chinese tech giant Huawei reports sales, profit up despite US sanctions."
Years from now, economists and historians will be aghast and amazed. So many failed policies. So many flop wars. So many lies. So much BS.
Last Chance Alley: Maybe even TIME magazine will try to understand what has happened, with a cover story: “America: What Went Wrong.” Talk shows will include experts with explanations. Some will say that Americans were always hellbent. They’ll recall everything from the massacre at Wounded Knee to Nagasaki, arguing that a ‘Final War’ was inevitable. Others will claim the Democrats got a bee in their bonnets; all they could think about was sexual perversions and racism…(didn’t they appoint a White House press secretary…and then a Senator from California…simply because they were Black lesbians?). Still others will say that it was the Republicans, with their election denials and ‘wannabe dictator,’ who were to blame…or neo-liberalism…or immigration…AI….climate change…whatever.
Even as late as 2023, the USA still had a chance. It still could have renounced its empire and its sanctions, balanced its budget, trimmed its transfer payments…recalled its troops…and extended a hand of friendship to all who would take it.
Yes, it would have been rough for a year or two…disposing of trillions of dollars’ worth of unpayable debt. But it would have avoided a total breakdown of the US economy and its government. Americans would never have had to watch their country lose another major war and turn into a banana republic, sh*thole country.
Pistols and Knives: Maybe one of the talk show guests…or more likely, a complete outsider, with a long, gray beard, sending his opinions from a website based in Laramie, Wyoming…will explain: “If Congress had balanced the budget, it would have had to back away from its lavish military adventures…and it wouldn’t have been able to afford a pointless battle with China and Russia, both. And if Congress hadn’t run deficits, the Treasury wouldn’t have had to print so much money. We could have avoided the Inflationary Depression of 2026-28. And the ‘Final War’ would never have taken place.
Today, two-thirds of America’s ‘defense budget’ goes to support its war industry, not to defend the nation. Cutting it back…along with relatively small adjustments to “entitlement” programs… could bring spending in line with tax receipts."
But as of October of 2023, Congress shows no inclination whatsoever to avoid the catastrophe headed its way. Instead, Democrats and Republicans go after each other with pistols and knives. Each side sees the other as an ‘enemy.’ But they are on the same page on the two things that will cause the shameful end of the American Empire.
Immodest Foreign Policy: That is, they agree that no real limit should be put on their spending. And that the US should do ‘whatever it takes’ to remain the world’s alpha nation.
Why choose a course of action that inevitably results in national bankruptcy…inflation…and probably in military humiliation too? Why does an aging CEO…a senator…an old president…stay at his post long after he has ceased to be effective? Why did Charles XII, Napoleon and Hitler all decide to invade Russia? Why can’t Congress stop spending money it doesn’t have…and take up what George W. Bush promised the nation, a “more modest foreign policy?”
Yesterday, one member of Congress had had enough. Medialite reports: "Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) has had just about enough of Congress and its unwillingness to handle the increasing amount of debt, and now she’s threatening to throw herself on the sword and resign. Ms. Spartz: “If Congress does not pass a debt commission this year…I will not continue sacrificing my children for this circus …”
Bye, bye…Ms. Spartz."
"US Debt Clock, Real Time"
"US Debt Clock, Real Time"
Full screen recommended.
"We're so freakin' doomed!"
- The Mogambo Guru
"Situation Critical! The Enemy From Within Is Destroying America And The World!"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/3/23
"Situation Critical! The Enemy From Within
Is Destroying America And The World!"
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"Items At Meijer Everyone Should Be Buying Now! Stock Up Before Prices Increase!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 10/3/23
"Items At Meijer Everyone Should Be Buying Now!
Stock Up Before Prices Increase!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Meijer and are finding many items we all need to be stocking up on now before the next wave of price increases. Grocery prices are higher than ever, and we need to take advantage of all the great deals as we find them!"
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"What Could Possibly Go Wrong?"
"What Could Possibly Go Wrong?"
by Addison Wiggin
“When there is a lack of honor in government,
the morals of the whole people are poisoned.”
- Herbert Hoover
“The budget should be balanced,” a wise man stood and encouraged his fellow statesmen. Then continued, “the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest [we] become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”
You might think one of the members of the House had given such a speech on Saturday prior to the stopgap measure being passed. Matt Gaetz, maybe? If you did think so, you’d be off by about 2,067 years. Or maybe not.
The quote is often attributed to Cicero, a Roman statesman who as Consul of the Roman Republic tried - and failed - to head off the coming of Julius Caesar and the Roman Empire. Apparently, there is no real record of him having spake these words in public. Nor does it appear in any of his known writings. A more modern search on Google’s A.I. “Bard” tells me “the quote first appeared in the early 1900s, and it has been used by politicians and commentators ever since to promote conservative fiscal policies.”
Then, the Bard offers this unsolicited opinion: "While Cicero did speak out against government corruption and excessive spending, he also supported social programs that helped the poor and needy. It is unlikely that he would have endorsed the harsh and punitive policies advocated by the modern-day proponents of this quote."
Ah, Bard. Faithful to the core. “The misattribution of this quote to Cicero,” Bard admonishes, “is a reminder of the importance of critical thinking and source evaluation. It is important to be aware of the potential for misinformation and to be skeptical of quotes that seem too good to be true.” Too good to be true. Well, at least he got that part right.
Let’s think this through for a minute. Even if Cicero did not say it, why has the quote been hanging around for a 100 or so years? Like all works of fiction there must be some truth that resonates. What, after all, would be wrong with: a balanced budget…a treasury refilled..the arrogance of officialdom tempered...and assistance to foreign lands be curtailed?
Oh well, Cicero fought against the rise of the Empire and lost. We found the quote in the lead of one of our favorite monthly reads, Dr. Marc Faber’s "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report." Dr. Faber - or “Dr. Doom” as he’s known by Barron’s - is a Swiss born, iconoclastic economist. He earned his PhD in economics in Zurich at the age of 24 and spent most of his professional career trading stocks and bonds and managing money in Hong Kong for Credit Suisse Lyonnais, among other firms. He’s lived in Chiang Mai, Thailand for a number of years.
We bring him up for a couple of reasons. First of all, his book "Tomorrow’s Gold: Asia’s Age of Discovery" was a formative read for me when I was still wet behind the ears in this business. Second, he’s a super nice guy. He often attended and spoke at our Vancouver conference while we were playing host back in the day. I recall one day seeing him sitting at the bar in the lobby by himself. I sat down and we chatted for several hours… about the business, about investing… about travel, women and life. The conversation has resonated with me since.
In case there has to be a third reason, here it is: While reading his letter last night, rather… this morning, at about 3am, Marc reminded me why we do this work at all. The headline to October’s issue of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" is a question: “Is the Current ‘Strength’ in the US Economy Based on a ‘Statistical Mirage’?” It’s a good question.
Faber then goes on to answer the question in 47 pages of fairly dense economic analysis replete with charts and quotes from a host of other writers and thinkers I respect. We’ll give you the short version: “Yes.” “The current rebound in the economy,” Faber cites David Rosenberg, “is a ‘statistical mirage’. It is orchestrated by record amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus that are simply unsustainable and actually risk precipitating a very unstable financial and economic backdrop in the coming years.”
That much we know already, right? The question we habitually ask when reading Faber or anyone else is “what could go wrong?” It sounds hypothetical in nature, but, really… I’d like to know… “what could go wrong?” It’s the only plausible question to ask given the “statistical mirage” we’re consistently wooed by. How do you manage your finances in the face of uncertainty of such epic proportions? If, as Rosenberg suggests, the “record amounts” of monetary and fiscal stimulus are unsustainable… by definition they must end. What happens next? These are big questions and it’s later in the work day for me, so we’ll pick this line of thinking up again tomorrow…So it goes."
Canadian Prepper, "Alert: No Signal, WW3 Emergency Preparations"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper 10/2/23
"Alert: No Signal, WW3 Emergency Preparations"
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Monday, October 2, 2023
"A Look to the Heavens"
"NGC 1333 is seen in visible light as a reflection nebula, dominated by bluish hues characteristic of starlight reflected by interstellar dust. A mere 1,000 light-years distant toward the heroic constellation Perseus, it lies at the edge of a large, star-forming molecular cloud.
This telescopic close-up spans about two full moons on the sky or just over 15 light-years at the estimated distance of NGC 1333. It shows details of the dusty region along with telltale hints of contrasty red emission from Herbig-Haro objects, jets and shocked glowing gas emanating from recently formed stars. In fact, NGC 1333 contains hundreds of stars less than a million years old, most still hidden from optical telescopes by the pervasive stardust. The chaotic environment may be similar to one in which our own Sun formed over 4.5 billion years ago."
Paulo Coelho, "Killing Our Dreams"
"Killing Our Dreams"
by Paulo Coelho
"The first symptom of the process of our killing our dreams is the lack of time. The busiest people I have known in my life always have time enough to do everything. Those who do nothing are always tired and pay no attention to the little amount of work they are required to do. They complain constantly that the day is too short. The truth is, they are afraid to fight the Good Fight.
The second symptom of the death of our dreams lies in our certainties. Because we don’t want to see life as a grand adventure, we begin to think of ourselves as wise and fair and correct in asking so little of life. We look beyond the walls of our day-to-day existence, and we hear the sound of lances breaking, we smell the dust and the sweat, and we see the great defeats and the fire in the eyes of the warriors. But we never see the delight, the immense delight in the hearts of those who are engaged in the battle. For them, neither victory nor defeat is important; what’s important is only that they are fighting the Good Fight.
And, finally, the third symptom of the passing of our dreams is peace. Life becomes a Sunday afternoon; we ask for nothing grand, and we cease to demand anything more than we are willing to give. In that state, we think of ourselves as being mature; we put aside the fantasies of our youth, and we seek personal and professional achievement. We are surprised when people our age say that they still want this or that out of life. But really, deep in our hearts, we know that what has happened is that we have renounced the battle for our dreams – we have refused to fight the Good Fight.
When we renounce our dreams and find peace, we go through a short period of tranquility. But the dead dreams begin to rot within us and to infect our entire being. We become cruel to those around us, and then we begin to direct this cruelty against ourselves. That’s when illnesses and psychoses arise. What we sought to avoid in combat – disappointment and defeat – come upon us because of our cowardice. And one day, the dead, spoiled dreams make it difficult to breathe, and we actually seek death. It’s death that frees us from our certainties, from our work, and from that terrible peace of our Sunday afternoons."
The second symptom of the death of our dreams lies in our certainties. Because we don’t want to see life as a grand adventure, we begin to think of ourselves as wise and fair and correct in asking so little of life. We look beyond the walls of our day-to-day existence, and we hear the sound of lances breaking, we smell the dust and the sweat, and we see the great defeats and the fire in the eyes of the warriors. But we never see the delight, the immense delight in the hearts of those who are engaged in the battle. For them, neither victory nor defeat is important; what’s important is only that they are fighting the Good Fight.
And, finally, the third symptom of the passing of our dreams is peace. Life becomes a Sunday afternoon; we ask for nothing grand, and we cease to demand anything more than we are willing to give. In that state, we think of ourselves as being mature; we put aside the fantasies of our youth, and we seek personal and professional achievement. We are surprised when people our age say that they still want this or that out of life. But really, deep in our hearts, we know that what has happened is that we have renounced the battle for our dreams – we have refused to fight the Good Fight.
When we renounce our dreams and find peace, we go through a short period of tranquility. But the dead dreams begin to rot within us and to infect our entire being. We become cruel to those around us, and then we begin to direct this cruelty against ourselves. That’s when illnesses and psychoses arise. What we sought to avoid in combat – disappointment and defeat – come upon us because of our cowardice. And one day, the dead, spoiled dreams make it difficult to breathe, and we actually seek death. It’s death that frees us from our certainties, from our work, and from that terrible peace of our Sunday afternoons."
"The Point..."
“You do not really understand something
unless you can explain it to your grandmother.”
- Albert Einstein
○
Full screen recommended.
Moody Blues, "Don't You Feel Small"
"See the world, ask what it's for.
Understanding, nothing more..."
"Which New World Order Are We Talking About?"
"Which New World Order Are We Talking About?"
by Jeff Thomas
"Those of us who are libertarians have a tendency to speak frequently of "the New World Order." When doing so, we tend to be a bit unclear as to what the New World Order is. Is it a cabal of the heads of the world’s governments, or just the heads of Western governments? Certainly bankers are included somewhere in the mix, but is it just the heads of the Federal Reserve and the IMF, or does it also include the heads of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, etc.? And how about the Rothschilds? And the Bundesbank - surely, they’re in there, too? And the list goes on, without apparent end.
Certainly, all of the above entities have objectives to increase their own power and profit in the world, but to what degree do they act in concert? Although many prominent individuals, world leaders included, have proclaimed that a New World Order is their ultimate objective, the details of who’s in and who’s out are fuzzy. Just as fuzzy is a list of details as to the collective objectives of these disparate individuals and groups.
So, whilst most libertarians acknowledge "the New World Order," it’s rare that any two libertarians can agree on exactly what it is or who it’s comprised of. We allow ourselves the luxury of referring to it without being certain of its details, because, "It’s a secret society," as evidenced by the Bilderberg Group, which meets annually but has no formal agenda and publishes no minutes. We excuse ourselves for having only a vague perception of it, although we readily accept that it’s the most powerful group in the world.
This is particularly true of Americans, as Americans often imagine that the New World Order is an American construct, created by a fascist elite of US bankers and political leaders. The New World Order may be better understood by Europeans, as, actually, it’s very much a European concept - one that’s been around for quite a long time.
It may be said to have had its beginnings in ancient Rome. As Rome became an empire, its various emperors found that conquered lands did not automatically remain conquered. They needed to be managed - a costly and tedious undertaking. Management was far from uniform, as the Gauls could not be managed in the same manner as the Egyptians, who in turn, could not be managed like the Mesopotamians.
After the fall of Rome, Europe was in many ways a shambles for centuries, but the idea of "managing" Europe was revived with the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. The peace brought an end to the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) in the Holy Roman Empire and the Eighty Years’ War (1568-1648) between Spain and the Dutch Republic. It brought together the Holy Roman Empire, The House of Habsburg, the Kingdoms of Spain and France, the Dutch Republic, and the Swedish Empire.
Boundaries were set, treaties were signed, and a general set of assumptions as to the autonomy within one’s borders were agreed, to the partial satisfaction of all and to the complete satisfaction of no one… Sound familiar?
Later, Mayer Rothschild made his name (and his fortune) by becoming the financier to the military adventures of the German Government. He then sent his sons out to England, Austria, France, and Italy to do the same - to create a New World Order of sorts, under the control of his family through national debt to his banks. (Deep Throat was right when he said, "Follow the Money.")
So, the concept of a New World Order has long existed in Europe in various guises, but what does this tell us about the present and, more important, the future? In our own time, we have seen presidents and prime ministers come and go, whilst their most prominent advisors, such as Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, continue from one administration to the next, remaining advisors for decades. Such men are often seen as the voices of reason that may be the guiding force that brings about a New World Order once and for all.
Mister Brzezinski has written in his books that order in Europe depends upon a balance with Russia, which must be created through the control of Ukraine by the West. He has stated repeatedly that it’s critical for this to be done through diplomacy, that warfare would be a disaster. Yet, he has also supported the US in creating a coup in Ukraine. When Russia became angered at the takeover, he openly supported American aggression in Ukraine, whilst warning that Russian retaliation must not be tolerated.
Henry Kissinger, who has literally written volumes on his "pursuit of world peace" has, when down in the trenches, also displayed a far more aggressive personality, such as his angry recommendation to US President Gerald Ford to "smash Cuba" when Fidel Castro’s military aid to Angola threatened to ruin Mr. Kissinger’s plans to control Africa.
Whilst the most "enlightened" New World Order advisors may believe that they are working on the "Big Picture," when it comes down to brass tacks, they clearly demonstrate the same tendency as the more aggressive world leaders, and reveal that, ultimately, they seek to dominate. They may initially recommend diplomacy but resort to force if the other side does not cave to "reason" quickly.
If we stand back and observe this drama from a distance, what we see is a theory of balance between the nations of Europe (and, by extension, the whole world) - a balance based upon intergovernmental agreements, allowing for centralized power and control.
This theory might actually be possible if all the countries of the world were identical in every way, and the goals of all concerned were also identical. But this never has been and can never be the case. Every world leader and every country will differ in its needs and objectives. Therefore, each may tentatively agree to common conditions, as they have going back to the Peace of Westphalia, yet, even before the ink has dried, each state will already be planning to gain an edge on the others.
In 1914, Europe had (once again) become a tangle of aspirations of the various powers - a time bomb, awaiting only a minor incident to set it off. That minor incident occurred when a Serbian national assassinated an Austrian crown prince. Within a month, Europe exploded into World War. As Kissinger himself has observed in his writings, "They all contributed to it, oblivious to the fact that they were dismantling an international order."
Since 1648, for every Richelieu that has sought to create a New World Order through diplomacy, there has been a Napoleon who has taken a militaristic approach, assuring that the New World Order applecart will repeatedly be upset by those who are prone to aggression. Further, even those who seek to operate through diplomacy ultimately will seek aggressive means when diplomatic means are not succeeding.
A true world order is unlikely. What may occur in its stead would be repeated attempts by sovereign states to form alliances for their mutual benefit, followed by treachery, one- upmanship, and ultimately, aggression. And very possibly a new World War.
But of one thing we can be certain: Tension at present is as great as it was in 1914. We are awaiting only a minor incident to set off dramatically increased international aggression. With all the talk that’s presently about as to a New World Order, what I believe will occur instead will be a repeat of history.
If this belief is correct, much of the world will decline into not only external warfare, but internal control. Those nations that are now ramping up into police states are most at risk, as the intent is already clearly present. All that’s needed is a greater excuse to increase internal controls. Each of us, unless we favor being engulfed by such controls, might be advised to internationalize ourselves - to diversify ourselves so that, if push comes to shove, we’re able to get ourselves and our families out of harm’s way."
"It Is Inevitable..."
"We do not rest satisfied with the present. We anticipate the future as too slow in coming, as if in order to hasten its course; or we recall the past, to stop its too rapid flight. So imprudent are we that we wander in the times which are not ours, and do not think of the only one which belongs to us; and so idle are we that we dream of those times which are no more, and thoughtlessly overlook that which alone exists. For the present is generally painful to us. We conceal it from our sight, because it troubles us; and if it be delightful to us, we regret to see it pass away. We try to sustain it by the future, and think of arranging matters which are not in our power, for a time which we have no certainty of reaching. Let each one examine his thoughts, and he will find them all occupied with the past and the future. We scarcely ever think of the present; and if we think of it, it is only to take light from it to arrange the future. The present is never our end. The past and the present are our means; the future alone is our end. So we never live, but we hope to live; and, as we are always preparing to be happy, it is inevitable we should never be so."
- Blaise Pascal
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