"Economic Market Snapshot 4/18/22"

Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...

Only the consequences are real, to you!

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"Economic Market Snapshot 4/18/22"

Updated as available.

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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

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CNN Market Data:

- http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

- http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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Latest Market Analysis, Updated 4/18/22

- https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/

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A comprehensive, essential daily read.

April 15th to 18th 2022

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

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Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."

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Daily Job Cuts

- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

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- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

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- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

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- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

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- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

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"The more I see of the moneyed classes,

the more I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

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And now, the End Game...

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Oh yeah...

Gregory Mannarino, "Important Updates, Markets And More"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/18/22:

"Important Updates, Markets And More"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"Michael Pento: 30-50% Market Drop From Here, Ushering In The Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime"

Full screen recommended.

"Michael Pento: 30-50% Market Drop From Here,

 Ushering In The Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime"

by Wealthion

"Money manager Michael Pento returns to our program with a big warning - the prediction he made last year is coming true: He forecasted that, beginning in Q2 2022, we will start hurdling towards a recession as well as one heck of a bear market correction. And he believes that script is now set to play out before our eyes.

He foresees a progression from today's stagflation to disinflation and then to outright deflation over the coming year. The fast-rising cost of capital will pinch corporate and household incomes, spending will drop, financial & real estate prices will fall (some precipitously), and debt defaults will cascade through the system. In short: it's going to get ugly.

To hear one of the best summations yet of the "parade of horribles" we now face in the macro environment, as well as what their repercussions will be, watch this new excellent interview with Michael Pento."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

"40 Year Mortgage Rates Won't Save Housing Market; Price Cuts On The Way; Speculation Bubbles"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/17/22:

"40 Year Mortgage Rates Won't Save Housing Market;

 Price Cuts On The Way; Speculation Bubbles"

"3 Factors Which Are About To Make The Coming Food Shortages Even Worse"

"3 Factors Which Are About To Make 

The Coming Food Shortages Even Worse"

by Michael Snyder

"A confluence of circumstances has come together to create a “perfect storm” for global food production, and now that “perfect storm” is about to get even worse. For months I warned that this crisis was coming, and in recent weeks I have been documenting how dire conditions have already become all over the globe. The head of the UN World Food Program is warning that this is going to be the worst worldwide food crisis since World War II, and even Joe Biden is admitting that the approaching food shortages “are going to be real”. Unfortunately, there have been some new developments which threaten to significantly escalate things.

In recent days, the number of newly confirmed COVID cases in China has soared to record highs, and Chinese authorities have responded to this with unprecedented lockdowns. As a result, almost 400 million Chinese are now “under full or partial lockdown”… "Nearly 400 million people across 45 cities in China are under full or partial lockdown as part of China’s strict zero-Covid policy. Together they represent 40%, or $7.2 trillion, of annual gross domestic product for the world’s second-largest economy, according to data from Nomura Holdings."

Analysts are ringing warning bells, but say investors aren’t properly assessing how serious the global economic fallout might be from these prolonged isolation orders. Chinese lockdowns are a lot more brutal than lockdowns in the western world. By now, you have probably seen video footage of Shanghai residents literally screaming from their apartment windows.

I have never seen anything like that before, and these lockdowns will continue as long as COVID keeps spreading. To put this in perspective, the number of people that are currently locked down in China is greater than the total population of the United States.

Needless to say, these lockdowns are bringing the Chinese economy to a grinding halt, and that is going to affect the entire planet. At the Port of Shanghai, activity “is essentially at a standstill”… "The Port of Shanghai, which handled over 20% of Chinese freight traffic in 2021, is essentially at a standstill. Food supplies stuck in shipping containers without access to refrigeration are rotting."

This is an enormous problem for those of us in the western world, because our stores are normally filled with goods that have been made in China. And this even extends to our food supply. For example, we send giant mountains of apples to China where they are processed and sent back to us as apple juice. We need to hope that the lockdowns in China end soon, because if that does not happen it will likely create tremendous shortages all over the planet.

Meanwhile, the fertilizer crisis in the United States is about to get even worse. Previously, I have written about how the skyrocketing cost of fertilizer is going to cause massive problems for many U.S. farmers, and now many of those farmers may not be able to get the fertilizer that they need at all due to “railroad-mandated shipping reductions”. The following comes directly from a notice released by CF Industries… "CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today informed customers it serves by Union Pacific rail lines that railroad-mandated shipping reductions would result in nitrogen fertilizer shipment delays during the spring application season and that it would be unable to accept new rail sales involving Union Pacific for the foreseeable future. The Company understands that it is one of only 30 companies to face these restrictions.

CF Industries ships to customers via Union Pacific rail lines primarily from its Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana and its Port Neal Complex in Iowa. The rail lines serve key agricultural areas such as Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas and California. Products that will be affected include nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) as well as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), an emissions control product required for diesel trucks. CF Industries is the largest producer of urea, UAN and DEF in North America, and its Donaldsonville Complex is the largest single production facility for the products in North America."

I was astounded to hear that 30 different companies will be affected by these reductions. Someone at Union Pacific needs to give us some straight answers about what is really going on, because the CEO of CF Industries says that this change “could not come at a worse time for farmers”… “The timing of this action by Union Pacific could not come at a worse time for farmers,” said Tony Will, president and chief executive officer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. “Not only will fertilizer be delayed by these shipping restrictions, but additional fertilizer needed to complete spring applications may be unable to reach farmers at all. By placing this arbitrary restriction on just a handful of shippers, Union Pacific is jeopardizing farmers’ harvests and increasing the cost of food for consumers.”

Of course this comes in the aftermath of a disastrous winter wheat harvest in the United States, and the winter wheat harvest over in China is being called the worst in history. So we desperately need a really good growing season in the months ahead, and now that is being jeopardized by more supply chain issues.

At the same time, the new bird flu pandemic in the U.S. just continues to intensify. On Friday, we learned that Idaho has become the 27th U.S. state to have confirmed cases at a commercial facility… "On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced yet another outbreak, this one in two flocks in Idaho, making that the 27th state in which the virus has been found since February. According to the USDA, the price of a dozen eggs in November hovered around $1. Right now, that price is $2.95 and rising."

The cost of eggs has already gone completely nuts, and it is only going to go higher. If you don’t eat eggs or anything that contains eggs, then this will not affect you. Unfortunately, the vast majority of us will be affected by this, and we are being warned that this pandemic could get a lot worse in the months ahead.

Of course the cost of chicken meat and the cost of turkey meat will both continue to soar as well. In fact, one of my readers just wrote to let me know that the price of chicken breasts at his local store shot up 43 percent… "I thought I would give you a quick update on Inflation/Food Shortages. I just got back from The Dollar General Store in Holden, MO. I was going to buy some Tyson Chicken Breasts to stock up for the future. They went from $6.95 to $9.95. That’s a 43% jump in price! There was plenty of them (6 packages) but I just felt like I couldn’t afford them so I didn’t buy any.

Michael have you heard anything about shortages of Crackers? I had to wait 4 months for a certain type of Cracker to get restocked in The Dollar General Store. I also have been having a lot of trouble getting Saltine Crackers at our local Grocery Store. 2 weeks ago they finally had 1(!) box of the type I buy and I grabbed it up immediately. This week none again. Not sure what the problem is.

Gas here is $3.49. Diesel Fuel is $4.69. I feel sorry for the guys that have these big Diesel Pickups with 40 gallon fuel tanks. I have been combining shopping and errands in 1 trip plus letting my Pickup set in the driveway to conserve Gas."

A lot of the factors that are contributing to this growing global food crisis are outside of our control. But if we could at least bring a halt to the shooting in Ukraine, that would give us a ray of hope. Unfortunately, negotiations have totally broken down, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken just told CNN that the war could continue through the end of the year… "Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Washington’s European allies that the US believes the war in Ukraine could last through the end of 2022, CNN reported Friday, citing two European officials.

The report said that many Western officials have assessed there’s no short-term end in sight for the war, and public comments from US officials have reflected this. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has warned of a “protracted conflict” that he said could go on “for months or even longer.”

Ukraine and Russia usually account for approximately 30 percent of all global wheat exports, and so we desperately need that war to end. Sadly, that isn’t going to happen. These days, it seems as though almost everything that can go wrong for global food production is going wrong, and the stage is being set for the sort of horrific global famine that I have been relentlessly warning about.

Our leaders may be able to print money, but they can’t print food. If you are waiting for them to wave their magic wands and conjure up a perfect solution to this crisis then I am afraid that you are going to be bitterly, bitterly disappointed."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

"Stock Market Crash Coming Before September As Massive Bubble Bursts"

Full screen recommended.

"Stock Market Crash Coming Before 

September As Massive Bubble Bursts"

by Epic Economist

"Things are getting increasingly turbulent on Wall Street. A series of economic and financial indicators are pointing to the inevitable downfall of the stock market, a following recession, and an inflationary spike like no other. Even legendary investors, experts, and banks are sounding the alarm about the looming crash and the burst of several other asset bubbles formed over the past two years. All factors are coming together to create the perfect storm for stocks – and the meltdown isn’t just going to affect the near-term outlook but result in damages that are likely to stick with us for many years to come.

Since early last week, many notable market players came forward to alert about an imminent stock market crash. The long-awaited shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has finally hit US markets, sparking panic amongst investors while inflation continues to impact the economy and the finances of the average consumer. One of the most striking remarks came from the “Big Short” investor, Michael Burry. Amid a scenario of a slumping economy and extreme overvaluation in financial markets, stocks are poised to tumble, the investor said.

Over the past two years, the investor has repeatedly warned about excessive asset valuations - but now a breaking point seems closer than ever. To make things even more complicated, Burry also painted a grim picture of inflation. He said that the Federal Reserve isn’t hiking interest rates to fight rampant inflation and soaring prices, but to have room to prop up markets once this giant bubble explodes.

Financial expert and best-selling author, John Mauldin, agrees that things are getting too rocky on Wall Street. The famed economist doesn’t believe that the Fed will be able to tighten its policy in a way that doesn’t result in a major recession. "Powell and his crew hope to engineer the fabled 'soft landing,'" Mauldin said in a commentary published a couple of days ago. "I really doubt they can do it."

Recession forecasts have started to pop up in large numbers following the rise of the 2-year Treasury yield above the 10-year in March. On a similar note, the famous author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, sounded the alarm on Friday about a hyperinflationary crisis and depression in America. He noted that the biggest bubble burst in history is fast-approaching, and some cut-throat repercussions are going to hit investors and the average American really hard.

The market veteran warned that when the bubble finally bursts and the stock market crashes, the 401k will fail, and retirement plans and pensions will be unpayable. Baby boomers’ retirements will be stolen, and the $10 trillion in fake money spending is ending, he said, calling the U.S. government, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve thieves.

The prospects of a sudden downturn continue to grow. In the meantime, short-sellers are securing their positions to navigate through the coming stock market crash. Even Goldman Sachs is warning about the potential for a lost decade for passive investors, especially those who stick with historical allocations like the 60/40 portfolio, which is named for its allocation split of 60% stocks and 40% high-grade debt.

In essence, all of this means that when the market plunges, returns are likely to be dismal for the next ten years or so. In such an unprecedented environment for most investors, the stock market is behaving in unprecedented ways, too. But the bubble can only grow to a certain extent before it bursts - and it has already been stretched to its limit - so, right now, pouring more money into risky assets isn't an investment, but a gamble. At this point, the main question is: how many out there are willing to lose everything?"

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

Greg Hunter, "We Are at War Right Now"

"We Are at War Right Now"

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of "The Solari Report" and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says, “We are at war right now, and they are trying to kill us.”

Fitts is not talking about war with the Russians, but satanic Deep State globalists who are spraying us, injecting us and, at the very least, bankrupting us. CAF explains, “We are in a war. What this is about is the ‘Great Poisoning’ with spraying aluminum overhead, nano particles in the food, they are trying to feed us insects and synthetic food and inject us with secret ingredients. What about this is not obvious? Stop worrying about the collapse is going to come or the war is coming. It’s here, you are in it. This is what it feels like, and I am not saying it cannot get worse, but this is now.”

What about sky high inflation coming? CAF’s analysis considers increasing all-death mortality from the vax and other poisons “We the People” are being exposed to. This is going to have a big effect on inflation in the coming years, and it’s not what you think. Fitts explains, “I am going to be a really bad guy. We have serious inflation baked into the cake through the monetary policies, but you have to consider accelerated deaths from the ‘Great Poisoning.’ Those deaths are very deflationary. This will force a great deal of capital to the next generation. Depending on deflation from the deaths, that offsets inflation tremendously. It’s already offset it tremendously. I think what we are looking at is much bigger than just the injections. I think the ’Great Poisoning’ is a much more complex, long-lived process, and that’s what’s going to hit.”

CAF dives deep on how you can fight back and survive the evil being done to “We the People.” Think local everything. CAF identifies who is doing evil to us and how we can cut off the money financing this evil. She also tells who the most important elected official is in every county in America and why you need to care who gets elected into this position.”

CAF says you must be knowledgeable and up to date about what is happening. In closing, CAF says, “I used to have a pastor that said if we can face it, God can fix it. I think reality is the doorway we have to walk through to find the pathway. One of the reasons it has gotten as bad as it has gotten is many of us pretended it was not going on.”

https://usawatchdog.com/

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One 

with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts:

- https://rumble.com/

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "East of the Full Moon"

Deuter, "East of the Full Moon"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"A bright spiral galaxy of the northern sky, Messier 63 is nearby, about 30 million light-years distant toward the loyal constellation Canes Venatici. Also cataloged as NGC 5055, the majestic island universe is nearly 100,000 light-years across, about the size of our own Milky Way. Its bright core and majestic spiral arms lend the galaxy its popular name, The Sunflower Galaxy, while this exceptionally deep exposure also follows faint, arcing star streams far into the galaxy's halo.

Extending nearly 180,000 light-years from the galactic center the star streams are likely remnants of tidally disrupted satellites of M63. Other satellite galaxies of M63 can be spotted in this remarkable wide-field image, made with a small telescope, including five newly identified faint dwarf galaxies, which could contribute to M63's star streams in the next few billion years."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap201204.html

"It Must Be Borne In Mind..."

“It must be borne in mind that the tragedy of life doesn’t lie in not reaching your goal. The tragedy lies in having no goal to reach. It isn’t a calamity to die with dreams unfulfilled, but it is a calamity not to dream. It is not a disaster to be unable to capture your ideal, but it is a disaster to have no ideal to capture. It is not a disgrace not to reach the stars, but it is a disgrace to have no stars to reach for. Not failure, but low aim is a sin.”

- Benjamin E. Mayes

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- Oscar Wilde

“With Tears in Their Eyes, They Fired…”

“With Tears in Their Eyes, They Fired…”

by Bill Bonner

“In front of the restaurant, on the corner of the Boulevard du Montparnasse and the Boulevard Saint-Michel in Paris, stands the statue of the greatest soldier who ever lived, Michel Ney, standing near the spot where he was executed.

French Superhuman: It’s when things go bad that you open your eyes. What will the present crises reveal about our own character? We presume we will see. And Ney? Everything went bad. But his statue still shows the unblemished energy of a real soldier. When we read Ney’s exploits during the French Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars of the late 18th and early 19th centuries, battle after battle… mad cavalry charges… slashing sabers and booming cannon… wounded again and again in nearly constant fighting over a 20-year period… across the barren steppes of Eurasia… the mountains of Spain… the deserts, wastes, towns, and fastnesses of Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Poland… and France itself… we hold our breath, as if it were not possible that one man had done so much.

What sort of man was this? What meat did he eat? What wine did he drink? Ney was almost superhuman… perhaps a demigod of war created by Mars himself.

Life and Death: Back then, battles were matters of life and death, with the commanders often on the frontlines. Ney, on horseback, pulled out his sword and rode straight towards the enemy muskets. How today’s Deep State “warriors” – such as Generals David Petraeus and Keith Alexander – must hold their manhoods cheap in comparison! Never in real danger and never short of air-conditioning and Coke, their toughest battles were fought on the carpets of the Pentagon. And then, after long careers filled with “surges,” lights at the end of tunnels, and other claptrap, the grateful nation sent the two counterfeits to enjoy the rich rewards of Wall Street.

Not so for Ney. He enjoyed no comfort-controlled duty assignments. No attractive, fawning reporters – to whom he could reveal military secrets – accompanied him on campaign. And no grateful nation provided a sinecure. Instead, it shot him.

It was amazing that Ney survived so long. He was captured by the enemy at Neuwied in modern-day Germany… and slept out in the open in Russia in temperatures of -30 degrees Celsius. He was wounded many times – thrown from his horse… sliced by swords… and struck by cannon and bullets in the thigh, wrist, and neck (any one of which should have put him under the earth).

In the Battle of Waterloo alone, he had five horses shot from under him. He even managed to get out of Russia after Napoleon’s ill-fated invasion, commanding the rear guard in a catastrophic campaign where 90% of the troops died. Legend has it that he was the last French soldier to cross the bridge at the Berezina River, firing his musket as he beat a retreat, before the bridge was taken by the Cossacks, who proceeded to massacre as many as 10,000 French and Swiss troops left behind.

French Disaster: Napoleon had planned to retreat from Russia into Poland, crossing the Berezina. The river should have been frozen solid at that time of the year. The French had counted on it. But a thaw left it uncrossable. They were trapped, with three Russian armies converging on them. Immediately, bridge builders leapt into the water to construct a 100-meter bridge. A man could survive for only about 30 minutes in the freezing river. Most of the builders died quickly. But somehow, they managed to put together a bridge, allowing the Emperor and much of his army to cross. Still, the French lost as many as 40,000 troops and stragglers in the battle. Even today, “Berezina” is interchangeable with “disaster” in French.

Most of Napoleon’s marshals went on – shrewdly – to betray him. They opened their eyes and saw it was time to change camps. But not Ney. Napoleon had been shipped off to the Isle of Elba, leaving the French to rebuild the nation under another Louis. But the Corsican escaped from Elba and was soon back on French soil, with another army no less.

Blinded by loyalty or miscalculation, Ney – who had pledged obedience to the king in the meantime – rallied to the Emperor’s cause and joined the last campaign, of the “hundred days.” Then, it was Michel Ney, the Prince of the Moskva, of course, at the front of the magnificent cavalry charges at Waterloo, waving his sword and urging his men on against Wellington’s cannon, which he briefly managed to capture. Alas, with the Prussian Blücher arriving from the east, like a hammer coming down on the English anvil, Napoleon realized that the situation was hopeless and gave the order to retreat. And then, it was over. Soon, Napoleon was captured… Ney, too.

Found Guilty: The Emperor was sent to Saint Helena, an island so remote and so inaccessible, there was no hope of getting away. Ney was tried for treason. Found guilty in 1815, the only concession the new government granted France’s greatest hero was that it let him command his own firing squad. He did so as follows: “Soldiers, when I give the command to fire, fire straight at my heart. Wait for the order. It will be my last to you. I protest against my condemnation. I have fought a hundred battles for France, and not one against her… Soldiers, fire!” The soldiers, some in tears, pulled the trigger as they had been commanded.”

- https://bonnerandpartners.com/

“The History of the Middle Finger”

“The History of the Middle Finger”

by pappy

“Well, now… here’s something I never knew before, and now that I know it, I feel compelled to send it on to my more intelligent friends in the hope that they, too, will feel edified.

Before the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, the French, anticipating victory over the English, proposed to cut off the middle finger of all captured English soldiers. Without the middle finger it would be impossible to draw the renowned English longbow and therefore they would be incapable of fighting in the future. This famous English longbow was made of the native English Yew tree, and the act of drawing the longbow was known as ‘plucking the yew’ (or ‘pluck yew’).

Much to the bewilderment of the French, the English won a major upset and they began mocking the French by waving their middle fingers at the defeated French, saying, “See, we can still pluck yew!” Since ‘pluck yew’ is rather difficult to say, the difficult consonant cluster at the beginning has gradually changed to a labiodentalfricative ‘F’, and thus the words often used in conjunction with the one-finger-salute! It is also because of the pheasant feathers on the arrows used with the longbow that the symbolic gesture is known as ‘giving the bird.’”

- http://pappys-rants.blogspot.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Campton, New Hampshire, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Chet Raymo, “On Being Good”

“On Being Good”

by Chet Raymo

“Several years ago, I attended a seminar on the foundations of ethical systems. The participants quoted Plato, Jesus, Heidegger, and a host of other authorities; they trotted out every philosophical and theological reason why we can or should be good. Of course, prominent among the arguments was that old canard: Without the promise of eternal salvation or the threat of damnation, we would all be scoundrels.

No one mentioned that we are first of all biological creatures with an evolutionary history, and that altruism, aggression, fidelity, promiscuity, nurturing and violence might be part of our animal natures.

I looked around the auditorium and saw folks of every religious and philosophical persuasion, and of many cultural and ethnic backgrounds, and I thought, "Gee, I'd trust any one of these folks not to take my wallet in a dark alley." Sure, humans are capable of great evil, but most of us are pretty good most of the time, and I suspect that it has more to do with where we have been as a biological species than with where we hope to be going in some airy-fairy afterlife.

We are animals who have evolved the capacity to cherish our fellow humans and to resist for the common good our innate tendencies to aggression and selfishness, not because we have been plucked out of our animal selves by some sky hook from above, but because we have been nudged into reflective consciousness by evolution. When it comes to living in a civilized way on a crowded planet, I choose to put my faith in the long leash of the genes rather than fear of hellfire or the chance to walk on streets of gold.”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

"Dreams..."

"Dreams are true while they last, and do we not live in dreams?"

- Alfred, Lord Tennyson

"Look To This Day..."

"Look to this day

for it is life,

the very life of life.

In its brief course lie all

the realities and truths of existence,

the joy of growth ,

the splendor of action,

the glory of power.

For yesterday is but a memory,

And tomorrow is only a vision.

But today well lived

makes every yesterday a memory

of happiness,

and every tomorrow a vision of hope.

Look well, therefore, to this day..."

- Kalidasa

Free Download: Charles Mackay, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back."

- Carl Sagan

"'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" is an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. The book chronicles its subjects in three parts: "National Delusions", "Peculiar Follies", and "Philosophical Delusions". MacKay was an accomplished teller of stories, though he wrote in a journalistic and somewhat sensational style.

The subjects of Mackay's debunking include alchemy, crusades, duels, economic bubbles, fortune-telling, haunted houses, the Drummer of Tedworth, the influence of politics and religion on the shapes of beards and hair, magnetisers (influence of imagination in curing disease), murder through poisoning, prophecies, popular admiration of great thieves, popular follies of great cities, and relics. Present-day writers on economics, such as Michael Lewis and Andrew Tobias, laud the three chapters on economic bubbles. Scientist and astronomer Carl Sagan mentioned the book in his own discussion about pseudoscience, popular delusions, and hoaxes.

In later editions, Mackay added a footnote referencing the Railway Mania of the 1840s as another "popular delusion" which was at least as important as the South Sea Bubble. Mathematician Andrew Odlyzko has pointed out, in a published lecture, that Mackay himself played a role in this economic bubble; as leader writer in the Glasgow Argus, Mackay wrote on 2 October 1845: "There is no reason whatever to fear a crash."

- https://en.wikipedia.org/

Freely download "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

by Charles Mackay, here:
- http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/pdf/mackaych2451824518-8.pdf

"How It Really Is"

 

"Debt Saturation: Off The Cliff We Go"

"Debt Saturation: Off The Cliff We Go"

by Charles Hugh Smith

"I started writing about debt saturation back in 2011. The basic idea is we can continue to borrow and spend as long as one of two conditions hold: 1) real (inflation-adjusted) income is rising, so there's more income to service additional debt, or 2) the cost of borrowing declines so the same income can support more debt.

After 13 long years of declining interest rates and stagnant incomes for the bottom 90%, we've finally reached debt saturation: after dropping to near-zero, interest rates are now rising, pushing the cost of debt service higher, while wages are losing purchasing power (a.k.a. inflation), so there's less disposable income left to service debt.

The game plan for the past 13 years was to fund "growth" today by borrowing vast sums from future incomes: the $1.6 trillion in student loan debt, for example, was supposed to be paid by the soaring wages of all those student-loan-serfs, and all the sovereign debt was supposed to be paid by the soaring tax revenues from rapidly expanding economies.

These fantasies have now run aground on the unforgiving shoals of reality. There's no way to expand debt if income is losing ground and the cost of borrowing is soaring.

As I observed in 2012, "Spreading Insolvency Around Does Not Create Solvency" (August 23, 2012). In 2011, I used a different analogy: "The World Is Drowning in Debt, and Europe Laces On Concrete Boots" (November 14, 2011).

Saturation is an interesting phenomenon. You keep adding more and more to a system that seems to absorb "more" with no ill effects, and then suddenly the whole mountainside gives way and rumbles off the cliff.

There's a runaway feedback loop aspect to debt saturation. Think of a planetary atmosphere where you keep adding greenhouse gases. The atmosphere keeps absorbing more greenhouse gases with little effect until a saturation point is reached and then the atmosphere loses its negative feedback mechanisms that kept the system stable. At that point, the feedback is all positive, i.e. every additional unit of greenhouse gases doesn't just trap an additional unit of heat, it multiplies the effect. (The atmosphere of Venus is hot enough to melt lead - 900 F or 475 C.)

We see this same dynamic in debt saturation: the breakdown is accelerating rapidly. Since households burned through their stimulus bonanza, the savings rate has fallen and credit card balances are soaring. But this is not low-cost debt, it's high-cost debt, so those additional credit card balances will soon stripmine disposable income, leaving less for additional spending or debt service.

The "temporary debt forgiveness" ploy is staving off the day of reckoning in student loan serfdom. Rather than admit the student loan scam is unsustainable, the status quo plays an absurd game of pushing the date that student loan interest will have to be paid forward. This works until it doesn't.

Meanwhile, with mortgage rates over 5% for the first time in a decade, the housing bubble is popping. The runaway feedback of higher mortgages and slowing sales will accelerate price declines and mortgage delinquencies far faster than the mainstream anticipates.

Rising bond yields will push the cost of government borrowing higher, too. Borrowing money to pay the interest on borrowing money is another feedback loop of doom: it's downright inconvenient when most of the income tax revenues are devoted to servicing government debt, leaving little for the rest of the government's vast spending.

There's a lot of shuck and jive in income and wealth statistics to mask the doom-loop of debt saturation. Oh, the household is still doing just fine, we're told: look at all the luscious wealth and income available to service more debt.

What punctures the pretty fantasy is the reality that only the top 5% have plenty of income and wealth. The top 1% collect around 20% of all income and own 50% of all financial wealth, and the top 10% collect over 50% of all income and own roughly 90% of financial assets.

The bottom 50% of households own less than 1% of financial wealth and the bottom 90% will discover how much of their "wealth" is phantom when the stock and housing bubbles pop.

The point is wealth and income are highly concentrated in the U.S., so claiming households have plenty of wealth and income is a gross distortion. Yes, the top 5% (7 million households) could borrow more, but they have enough wealth and income that they don't need to borrow more.

Those who need to borrow more to survive can't borrow more: households, zombie corporations, and local and national governments.

"Top 1% of U.S. Earners Now Hold More Wealth Than All of the Middle Class"
"The U.S. Income Distribution: Trends and Issues"

There's no tricks left to keep expanding debt: rates are rising, not falling, and wages are losing ground to the soaring costs of rent, adjustable mortgages, healthcare, childcare, food, energy, junk fees, property taxes, etc. As for the phantom wealth of bubbles: as rates rise and the Federal Reserve trims its stimulus, all the bubbles will pop. When the system can't borrow more and distribute the insolvency, it implodes. And so off the cliff we go."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

"Massive Price Increases At Kroger! What's Coming? - What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 4/17/22:

"Massive Price Increases At Kroger! What's Coming? - What's Next?"

"In today's vlog we are at Kroger and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Gregory Mannarino, "Markets, A Look Ahead: Keep Your Eyes On This One Thing In The Week Ahead"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/17/22:

"Markets, A Look Ahead: 

Keep Your Eyes On This One Thing In The Week Ahead"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Happy Easter

 
Happy Easter folks!

Must Watch! "Should I Buy A House Now? Shocked - Bank Account Robbed; No Food Means Big Problems"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/16/22:

"Should I Buy A House Now? Shocked - Bank Account Robbed; 

No Food Means Big Problems"

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

Full screen recommended.

2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

“Pamela and Randy Copus are the duo known as 2002. Randy Copus plays piano, electric cello, guitar, bass and keyboards. Pamela Copus plays flutes, harp, keyboards and a wind instrument called a WX5. Both musicians also provide all of the vocals on their albums, recording their voices many, many times and layering them to create a "virtual choir" with a celestial, angelic quality.”

Chet Raymo, “The Journey”

“The Journey”

by Chet Raymo

“Here’s a deep-deep sky map of the universe from the March 9, 2006 issue of Nature. The horizontal scale is a 360 view right around the sky; the vertical gaps at 6 hours and 24 hours are the parts of the universe that are blocked to our view by the disk of our own Milky Way Galaxy. The vertical scale – distance from Earth – is logarithmic (10, 100, 1000, etc.) measured in megaparsecs (a parsec equals 3.26 light-years). Across the top is the Big Bang, and the oldest and most distant thing we can see, the cosmic microwave background, the radiation of the Big Bang itself. A few relatively nearby galaxies are designated at the bottom. All that stuff in the middle that looks like smoke or dusty cobwebs are quasars and galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

A smoke of galaxies! (2 trillion galaxies according to latest estimates.- CP) A universe cobwebbed with Milky Ways! Each galaxy itself a smoke of stars, hundreds of billions of stars, many or all of them with planets. My book, “Walking Zero,” is about the human journey from the omphalos of our birth into the world of the galaxies, a journey many of us are disinclined to make. Here is how the Prologue to the book begins:

“Each of us is born at the center of the world. For nine months our physical selves are assembled molecule by molecule, cell by cell, in the dark covert of our mother’s womb. A single fertilized egg cell splits into two. Then four. Eight. Sixteen. Thirty-two. Ultimately, 50 trillion cells or so. At first, our future self is a mere blob of protoplasm. But slowly, ever so slowly, the blob begins to differentiate under the direction of genes. A symmetry axis develops. A head, a tail, a spine. At this point, the embryo might be that of a human, or a chicken, or a marmoset. Limbs form. Digits, with tiny translucent nails. Eyes, with papery lids. Ears pressed like flowers against the head. Clearly now a human. A nose, nostrils. Downy hair. Genitals.

As the physical self develops, so too a mental self takes shape, not yet conscious, not yet self-aware, knitted together as webs of neurons in the brain, encapsulating in some respects the evolutionary experience of our species. Instincts impressed by the genes. The instinct to suck, for example. Already, in the womb, the fetus presses its tiny fist against its mouth in anticipation of the moment when the mouth will be offered the mother’s breast. The child will not have to be taught to suck. Other inborn behaviors will express themselves later. Laughing. Crying. Striking out in anger. Loving.

What, if anything, goes on in the mind of the developing fetus we may never know. But this much seems certain: To the extent that the emerging self has any awareness of its surroundings, its world is coterminous with itself. We are not born with knowledge of the antipodes, the plains of Mars, or the far-flung realm of the galaxies. We are not born with knowledge of Precambrian seas, the supercontinent of Pangea, or the Age of Dinosaurs. We are born into a world scarcely older than ourselves and scarcely larger than ourselves. And we are at its center.

A human life is a journey into the grandeur of a universe that may contain more galaxies than there are cells in the human body, a universe in which the whole of a human lifetime is but a single tick of the cosmic clock. The journey can be disorienting; our first instincts are towards coziness, comfort, our mother’s enclosing arms, her breast. The journey, therefore, requires courage – for each individual, and for our species.

Uniquely of all animals, humans have the capacity to let our minds expand into the space and time of the galaxies. No other creatures can number the cells in their bodies, as we can, or count the stars. No other creatures can imagine the explosive birth of the observable universe 14 billion years ago from an infinitely hot, infinitely small seed of energy. That we choose to make this journey – from the all-sustaining womb into the vertiginous spaces and abyss of time – is the glory of our species, and perhaps our most frightening challenge.”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

"Regret And Dread – Two Problems You Don’t Really Have To Have"

"Regret And Dread –

Two Problems You Don’t Really Have To Have"

by John Wilder

"I tend to like writing my Friday posts the most. Why? Most generally, I get away from the reality of the present situations that we are living in. That’s nice. Why do I feel like I can do this? Because nothing is done yet, and nothing is settled yet. I’ve written posts about regret. I still feel that regret is a wasted emotion – the past is done. Of course, I try to learn from my mistakes. But I can’t spend my life being upset about them. The real question is how can I incorporate the mistakes so I have a better future? I even told The Mrs. that she should embrace her mistakes, too. She was so happy she hugged me.

Especially of note are those mistakes I made that weren’t mistakes I made based on a lack of virtue. If I did the right thing, for the right reason, the result is the result, and I will live with the consequences. Sometimes bad things happen when you do everything right. I mean, when the doctor told me I had a rare disease, I asked, “How rare?” “Well, you get to pick a name.” Those are the breaks.

A similar emotion is dread. I read a quote when I was a kid – Heinlein? Twain? A fever dream while on laudanum writing about Xanadu? – that stuck with me. “Worrying about what might happen is paying interest on money you haven’t borrowed yet.” It’s a good quote. Regret is looking at the past, dread (or its cousin, fear) is about looking at the future. But they’re the same. Neither of those two things are real. One once was real, and one might be real.

I’ll admit that when I look out at the future, I do see dark days ahead. But right now, I’m sitting in my basement, The Mrs. had gone upstairs for sleep, the basement is perfectly comfy, and all is right with the world. Something might happen next week. Next month. Next year. The price of tires is up. The price of gasoline is up. Heck, Hunter Biden can’t even find decent meth nowadays. It will get worse.

So? I think that often we are more upset by the thought of potential future discomfort than actual, present discomfort. It can be consuming, and all for something that hasn’t happened yet. And, it used to be me. I used to do the math – how many months could I make mortgage payments if I lost my job? How many days could I feed my family? And, it’s one thing planning for that, but I was also sometimes scared.

Until one day I just decided to not be scared – I’d go through life and do my best, and let the chips fall where they may. I decided that it was fine to plan, it was fine to economize to save money, but it wasn’t fine to worry. So I stopped.

It was weird – one night I was worried, and the next night I decided that I wasn’t going to worry anymore. I just made the conscious decision I wasn’t going to worry anymore about that. It was the last significant worry that I gave up. I also worried about my short attention span, but that problem seems to solve itself. And it’s not like I live in a world where bad things don’t happen. I know bad things happen – horrible things. But today, I can choose not to worry about them.

Heck, I can pick something that is real and we can be certain that is going to happen – death. The shadow of death looms above us all. But to be consumed by it so that it causes a life lived in fear? That’s like already being dead. It might surprise some people, but death is something that isn’t new. Seneca, the (very dead) Roman stoic philosopher, said: “No man can have a peaceful life who thinks too much about lengthening it. Most men ebb and flow in wretchedness between the fear of death and the hardships of life; they are unwilling to live, and yet they do not know how to die.”

Reflect on death – if you knew that you wouldn’t wake up ever again, what would you do with your remaining hours? This reflection on death has multiple values to you and your character:

• It reinforces that which is important to us, here today.

• It exposes the frivolous that consume too much of our time.

• It shows what’s really of value – the money you made will be less important than the lives you’ve changed.

• You don’t have to worry about returning that library book.

Today is pretty good. Enjoy it. Skip the regret, the worry, and the dread. While you’re breathing, live. What can you make happen today?"

- https://wilderwealthywise.com/author/jwilder/

"Streets of Philadelphia, What’s Going On Today"

Full screen recommended.

kimgary, 4/16/22:

"Streets of Philadelphia, What’s Going On Today"

"Violent crime and drug abuse in Philadelphia as a whole is a major problem. The city’s violent crime rate is higher than the national average and other similarly sized metropolitan areas. Also alarming is Philadelphia’s drug overdose rate. The number of drug overdose deaths in the city increased by 50% from 2013 to 2015, with more than twice as many deaths from drug overdoses as deaths from homicides in 2015. A big part of Philadelphia’s problems stem from the crime rate and drug abuse in Kensington.

Because of the high number of drugs in Kensington, the neighborhood has a drug crime rate of 3.57, the third-highest rate by neighborhood in Philadelphia. Like a lot of the country, a big part of this issue is a result of the opioid epidemic. Opioid abuse has skyrocketed over the last two decades in the United States and Philadelphia is no exception. Along with having a high rate of drug overdose deaths, 80% percent of Philadelphia’s overdose deaths involved opioids2 and Kensington is a big contributor to this number. This Philly neighborhood is purportedly the largest open-air narcotics market for heroin on the East Coast with many neighboring residents flocking to the area for heroin and other opioids. With such a high number of drugs in Kensington, many state and local officials have zoned in on this area to try and tackle Philadelphia’s problem."

"You Can Never Tell..."

"You can never tell what people have inside them

until you start taking it away, one hope at a time."

- Gregory David Roberts