Wednesday, February 9, 2022

"The Some of Us"

"The Some of Us"
by Bill Bonner

"Yeah yeah, oh hey now little water boy,
Get your butt up offa the ground.
Pick up that bucket of water son.
Bring that bucket around.
Lord if you don't like your job
Then lay that bucket down..."
~ "Blue Yodel #8" by Jimmie Rogers

Youghal, Ireland - "Thanks for staying tuned…Our subject is real work… and why people aren’t so keen on it anymore. And finally, the dots are coming together. Of course people are quitting their jobs… the average Main Street worker has gotten a raise of only 32 cents per hour over the last half century. And now, adjusted for inflation, his earnings are going down.

Of course they want to join the elite – that’s where the money and status are. And of course, the Elite Establishment has become a parasitic burden – its ranks are padded with semi-competent managers, malingerers and hangers-on… over-proud, over-powerful and over-paid.

Of course prices are rising – the Fed is printing money. And of course Wall Street and its clients – the elite – have gotten rich; that’s where the bulk of the new money went.

Of course growth is slowing and the US empire is in decline… its upper classes have been corrupted by power and wealth. And its working classes – despised and ripped off by their ‘betters’ – are putting down their trowels and climbing down from the truck cabs.

The Some of Us: Let’s look at this more closely. It was the ‘culture of work’ that made America such a powerhouse. During WWII German prisoners of war, in America, were often given the opportunity to work on farms. After the war was over, some elected to stay. One explained it: “Here, I can work as much as I want.” But now… it seems fewer people like to work.

You’ll recall our explanation for the decline of the US. Every society has its elites. The government is never “all of us.” It’s some of us. There are those who govern and those who are misgoverned. Naturally, ambitious people aim for the cushy, front-row seats. “If you keep getting grades like that,” mothers warn their children, “you’ll end up like your father, laying bricks.”

Masonry is an honorable profession. It adds to the real wealth of the world. Anyone can do it. But doing it well requires real skill, something you typically learn on the job. You begin as a helper or “mud (mortar) boy” or “hod (a wooden device used to carry bricks on a job site) carrier.” Then, you fill in here and there. And when the boss stops slapping your hand, you can call yourself a mason.

But the young man of today has other opportunities. And thanks to the federal government, he has an astonishing amount of rope to hang himself. Instead of getting paid to learn carpentry, masonry, hospitality, baking or any one of dozens of useful trades, a young man takes out student loans and gets a degree in ‘management’ or ‘communications’ or ‘administration.’ Then, he can take his place among the people who work without getting their clothes dirty – schlepping in an air conditioned office to keep up with student debt, credit card debt, mortgage debt, auto debt… and the US national debt. He may never be among the real elite… or ever join the real ‘deciders,’ but he can still hold his head up… and feel good about himself. His mother will be proud of him.

More Butts: Besides, as a society becomes more regulated and controlled, more and more wannabe elites are needed to ‘manage’ it. While the number of students and teachers may remain more or less steady, for example, the number of ‘educators’ or ‘administrators’ goes up. It’s not enough to teach readin’, writin’ and ‘rithmetic; children also need to be indoctrinated with the elite catechism – that is, that they, the elite, should control the economy, the political structure, and the social and cultural rules of civil society. Anti-racism trainers are required… and experts to explain the need to switch to electric cars… and ‘economists’ who can keep a straight face.

So, too, are more butts needed in the seats of the medical industry. Again, while the quantity of doctors and nurses may be relatively stable, (many imported from Pakistan or India) somebody has to tell them how to treat their patients. And far more middle-muddlers are needed to master the intricate paperwork and arcane rules of Medicaid, Medicare and Obama Care, into which nearly half the population is currently enrolled.

The CDC has to keep track of who is vaccinated and who is not. The Small Business Administration must know who got PPP loans (a good bet – a high percentage went to the elite.) The SEC must charge someone with insider trading. The FBI must arrest criminals… and frame its political targets. The CIA must provide ‘intelligence’ to justify more ‘defense’ spending.

And so the wheels turn, but more and more slowly. Middle-management gums them up. Even superfluous parts must be greased, tended, connected to crankshafts and flywheels. Some cold and stationary, like a rusty DeSoto… others hot, young and in motion, but for no apparent reason; in the crankcase… in the transmission… more gears to turn… more parts to be oiled…

But none of them provide any motive force. No forward motion. No propulsion. They are ‘free riders’ in the economy who must be paid… whose medical needs must be met… whose retirements must be financed…and who vote for candidates who swear to God that they will never let interest rates go up.

More to come…Tomorrow, we will look at the non-elite… the common man. If he doesn’t work, how does he support himself? Has he been corrupted too? And in his idleness, does he get depressed?"

"The Free Lunch Economy is Over - We Are All On Our Own"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 2/9/22:
"The Free Lunch Economy is Over - We Are All On Our Own"
"There are no more Stimulus or free handouts coming your way. You and your business are on your own. We are told one day that the economy is doing great and then the next we are told that we need to prepare for the worst. Regardless of what they tell us you have to get yourself ready for a downturn."

"Retail Apocalypse & Inflation As The US National Debt Surpasses $30 Trillion For The First Time"

Full screen recommended.
"Retail Apocalypse & Inflation As The US National
Debt Surpasses $30 Trillion For The First Time"
by The Atlantis Report


"For the first time on the 1st February 2022, America’s gross national debt passed over $30 trillion, an apocalyptic fiscal milestone that highlights the fragile nature of the country’s long-term economic health as it grapples with ascending prices and the prospect of higher interest rates.

Wow, $30 trillion! Who could’ve seen this coming? And who is going to pay it back in taxes, debt, and inflation? Hint: they aren’t rich and they aren’t poor. It is the middle class.

If every person in the United States paid an equal part of the national debt it would cost each person about $86,000. How would that go over?

$30 trillion in debt with manufacturing now controlled almost entirely by our greatest 21st century rival, and a level of political corruption that makes this almost impossible to slow, let alone stop. Meanwhile 500 families own a majority of the country’s assets, which are held offshore. The future is bright indeed.

If we don't have the supply side working IE taxes we will indeed have a deficit. Think of the billions that were made during this pandemic .

Maybe we need to raise taxes on the U.S. billionaires whose wealth went up 70% during the pandemic. It does feel like high time our tax policy stops doing the exact opposite of what common sense, economic data, and compassion would dictate.

But how can we raise taxes on U.S. billionaires when they bought Congress a long time ago?

$30 Trillion is a million dollars a day for over 82,000 years. Such a figure could never be repaid. And Biden now wants to increase the deficit by giving Democrats trillions of dollars in additional welfare benefits through Build Back Better. No problem. Biden will inflate us out of anything.

If we use federal funding to put money in the pockets of the working class, it is spent on essentials; and that fuels economic growth and growth in tax revenue. If we spend federal money by giving tax cuts to the rich - as the GOP did in 2017 - it barely moves the needle. The rich simply hoard the money, or spend it on bubbles that do next to nothing to promote a healthy economy or grow tax revenues.

Both sides of the aisle are culpable for seeding this $30Trillion debt… Republicans and Democrats for massive corporate tax relief. A needless and wasteful Middle East war, only enriching the defense contractors. Failure of corporations and government to stem the migration of middle class jobs to the Far East. Corporations eyeing higher profits with minimal investment in offshoring manufacturing and not willing to invest in modernizing their manufacturing plants in the USA. All these have contributed to a higher national debt.

How is this not a central concern for the younger generations who will inevitably foot this bill? Are we so utterly distracted and financially illiterate that we can't see the brick wall we're barreling toward?

The top 10 Americans own nearly one trillion dollars in wealth and the rest of us owe 30 trillion!

It would be interesting to know how much each person in the United States would have to pay to pay off the national debt. This would include every man, woman and child. This would tell us what we are doing to our children and their future.

If you look up the National Debt Clock, you’ll see that we’re currently at $90,000 per citizen, or $239,000 per taxpayer. And the clock keeps on rolling… $136 Trillion is the net household private wealth of the USA to put a number on it. That is more than $30 Trillion. That wealth number increased about $20 Trillion in the past 12 months of the report period to 30 September. The top 1% holds about $43 Trillion, the top 10% holds about $95 Trillion. Most of us, 90% and up, pay ‘wealth’ tax on our principal asset, our house, in our mortgage payment or our rent. Most of us pay *most* of that tax on *somebody else’s* asset - the bank’s or the landlord’s.

How much of this increased debt is due to tax breaks for the very wealthy 1% that will not go away when breaks for ordinary Americans do? And they were telling us not to worry about debt because: "Interest rates are much lower than they were in the past, and all indications are that they’ll stay low for years to come" (thereby keeping the cost of servicing the debt low)."

Musical Interlude: Celine Dion & Josh Groban, "Live, "The Prayer"

Full screen!
Celine Dion & Josh Groban, "Live, "The Prayer"

The Daily "Near You?"

Marysville, Ohio, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Get Your Stuff Together...:

“We all got problems. But there’s a great book out called “Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart.” Did you see that? That book says the statute of limitations has expired on all childhood traumas. Get your stuff together and get on with your life, man. Stop whinin’ about what’s wrong, because everybody’s had a rough time, in one way or another.”
- Quincy Jones

"Too Soon, Too Soon..."

"I remember my youth and the feeling that will never come back any more – the feeling that I could last for ever, outlast the sea, the earth, and all men; the deceitful feeling that lures us on to joys, to perils, to love, to vain effort – to death; the triumphant conviction of strength, the heat of life in the handful of dust, the glow in the heart that with every year grows dim, grows cold, grows small, and expires – and expires, too soon, too soon – before life itself."
- Joseph Conrad, 1857-1924, English writer, "Youth"

"In Memory of Those Who Have “Died Suddenly” From February 1st to 7th, 2022"

"In Memory of Those Who Have “Died Suddenly”
 From February 1st to 7th, 2022"
by Mark Crispin Miller

"We now know, from the statistics, that all-cause mortality has been skyrocketing in countries with the highest COVID “vaccination” rates. Such numbers also tell us that more people all around the world have “died of COVID” than did (reportedly) in all of 2020. (396,837 Americans reportedly “died of COVID” under Trump, while 528,379 have so far “died of COVID” under Biden, whose term started with the US “vaccination” drive.) We also know, from the statistics, that children have been dying in greater numbers since they started getting “vaccinated” - as have professional (and non-professional) athletes the world over, and US military personnel.

Meanwhile, honest witnesses in medicine and the mortuary business, and also first responders, have been telling us they’ve seen a huge increase in sudden and untimely deaths, especially from heart attack, blood clot(s), stroke and cardiac arrest. British undertaker John O’Looney notes an increase of “500 to 600%” in deaths due to thrombosis. Such testimony adds dramatically to our general awareness that this “vaccination” drive is killing people in unprecedented numbers - and clearly by design, or else they would have halted it a year ago, when such grim numbers were already worryingly high.

Such statistics are invaluable; and yet, of course, they’re also too abstract to make us properly aware of the true toll that those “vaccines” are taking on humanity, and in the name of “saving lives.” This is why we need, as much as possible, to demonstrate that countless individuals are dying suddenly and, all too often, prematurely, every day. Only when enough of us have fully recognized this toll will it be possible for us to stop this second, incremental, scattered global Holocaust.

Here are those who have “died suddenly” or “unexpectedly” just this past week, either with no cause given (which is most unusual, even for the elderly), or from a heart attack, blood clot(s), stroke or cardiac arrest, or a very sudden and aggressive cancer (an “adverse event” whose increase has been noted by practitioners like Dr. Ryan Cole). Bear in mind that most of these are deaths that made the news in one way or another, whereas the vast majority of such surprising deaths go unreported."
Please view this complete article, with linked headlines, here:
Hat tip to the Burning Platform for this article.
Related:

"What We Choose..."

"Take risks! That is really what life is about. We must pursue our own happiness. Nobody has ever lived our lives; there are no guidelines. Trust your instincts. Accept nothing but the best. But then also look for it carefully. Don't allow it to slip between your fingers. Sometimes, good things come to us in a such a quiet fashion. And nothing comes complete. It is what we make of whatever we encounter that determines the outcome. What we choose to see, what we choose to save. And what we choose to remember. Never forget that all the love in your life is there, inside you, always."
- Linda Olsson

"Empty Shelves Everywhere At Meijer, And Grocery Prices Are Rising!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 2/9/22:
"Empty Shelves Everywhere At Meijer, And Grocery Prices Are Rising!"
"In today's vlog we visit Meijer, and witness a lot of soaring prices. With stores struggling to get in products we are also dealing with another issue of skyrocketing prices. We will also check out the shelves as stores all across the country are having trouble."

Gregory Mannarino, "Fake Out: The FED Is Buying The Market - New Record Highs Coming"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 2/9/22:
"Fake Out: The FED Is Buying The Market - 
New Record Highs Coming"

"Rampant Drug Shortages! Right Now There Are Shortages Of 116 Different Pharmaceutical Drugs In The United States"

"Rampant Drug Shortages! Right Now There Are Shortages
 Of 116 Different Pharmaceutical Drugs In The United States"
by Michael Snyder

"Global supplies of pharmaceutical drugs are getting tighter and tighter, and this has very serious implications for 2022 and beyond. If you depend upon a certain pharmaceutical drug in order to stay alive, I would recommend doing whatever you can to make sure that you have as much of that drug stockpiled as possible, because a day may come when you are unable to get any more for an extended period of time. Much of our drug production has been outsourced to China, and our relations with China are not going so well right now. In fact, the moment that China invades Taiwan we are going to have a major league national crisis on our hands.

Let me try to explain this one step at a time. The FDA regularly keeps a list of pharmaceutical drug shortages. According to that list, there were 112 drug shortages in the U.S. in November, and there were 114 drug shortages in the U.S. as of January 11th… "Nationwide, more than 100 drugs are in short supply, including antibiotics, diuretics, opioids and heart failure medications, FDA data shows. As of Jan. 11, 114 drugs were in shortage, according to the FDA’s database of current and resolved drug shortages, which is updated daily. The current tally is a continuation of shortage levels seen last year. In November 2021, the FDA reported 112 drug shortages."

I wanted information that was more up to date than that, so I went over and checked out the latest FDA drug shortage list for myself. There are 165 entries on the list right now, but 49 of them have been resolved. Subtracting 49 from 165 gives us a total of 116 pharmaceutical drug shortages in the United States at this moment. That is shocking. What are people supposed to do if they can’t get the drugs that they need?

Unfortunately, this is another area where we have outsourced a tremendous amount of production to China. Today, a whopping 97 percent of all antibiotics purchased in the United States come from China. Just think about that. If our supplies of antibiotics were suddenly cut off, a whole lot of Americans would die.

And it isn’t just antibiotics that we are talking about. According to one expert, if China suddenly cut off the flow of pharmaceutical drugs many of our hospitals “would cease to function within months, if not days”

As the U.S. defense establishment grows increasingly concerned about China’s potentially hostile ambitions, the pharmaceutical supply chain is receiving new scrutiny. “If China shut the door on exports of medicines and their key ingredients and raw material, U.S. hospitals and military hospitals and clinics would cease to function within months, if not days,” said Rosemary Gibson, author of a book on the subject, “China Rx.”

Wow.

This is another example that shows why it was so foolish to become so dependent on manufacturing in China. For years, I railed against all of the outsourcing that was going on. But our politicians in Washington didn’t want to listen to voices such as mine.

And so now we are in a very precarious position. If China invades Taiwan, either we have to stand aside and let it happen or we give up most of our medicine. At this point, things are so bad that we don’t even have a single penicillin plant in the United States anymore… "Other generic drugs whose key ingredients are manufactured in China include medicines for blood pressure medicine, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, epilepsy and depression, Gibson says. “We can’t make penicillin anymore,” said Gibson. “The last penicillin plant in the United States closed in 2004.”

Isn’t that crazy? The Chinese have the ability to bring us to our knees without firing a single shot. For a very long time I have been warning my readers that the U.S. has been playing checkers while China has been playing chess. They have outmaneuvered our clueless leaders every step of the way, and most Americans didn’t even realize what was happening.

Of course it isn’t just pharmaceutical drugs that are the problem. Western nations have outsourced the production of nearly everything, and now we are facing widespread global shortages that are unlike anything we have ever seen before. I included the following quote in an article that I posted yesterday, but I think that it is so important that I am going to share it again… 

"In a time when social networks have been swamped with photos of empty shelves from across the nation, Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now. “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

I don’t know if I have sufficient words to express the seriousness of what we are now facing. A horrifying global meltdown has already begun, and it is only going to get worse.

Earlier today, I came across a video clip in which former BlackRock executive Edward Dowd warned that “we are at the end days here”. “We are at end days here” Former Executive of BlackRock Edward Dowd:
Sound ON
- Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) February 6, 2022

Needless to say, he was specifically addressing the state of the financial markets, but his statement could definitely be applied on a much broader basis. We have entered a period of great crisis, but many people still don’t understand this.

A lot of times, people don’t grasp what is taking place until it affects them personally. In recent weeks, I have gotten emails from numerous readers about the issues that they are encountering at their local pharmacies. In the old days, getting drugs that were prescribed was a snap, but now there are times when people have had to wait weeks or even months to get their drugs.

If you still believe that this is “temporary”, you haven’t been paying attention. Our entire system is melting down, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning."

"How It Really Is"

“We are in the process of creating what deserves to be called the idiot culture. Not an idiot sub-culture, which every society has bubbling beneath the surface and which can provide harmless fun; but the culture itself. For the first time, the weird and the stupid and the coarse are becoming our cultural norm, even our cultural ideal.”
- Carl Bernstein

“Tough Times Are Here, Economy In Shambles; System Has Failed”

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, PM 2/8/22:
“Tough Times Are Here, Economy In Shambles; 
System Has Failed”

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Gerald Celente, "Covid-19 Made In China"

 
Gerald Celente,"Trends Journal":
"Covid-19 Made In China"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

"I've Never Seen A Market Like This: Goldman Sees Shortage Of Everything! You Name It We're Out Of It"

Full screen recommended.
"I've Never Seen A Market Like This: 
Goldman Sees Shortage Of Everything! You Name It We're Out Of It"
by Epic Economist

"In a time when social media is flooded with pictures and videos of empty shelves from all across the nation, Goldman’s head commodity strategist, who’s one of the most respected analysts on Wall Street, is saying that the extensive shortages faced by global commodity markets are simply unprecedented. We have a lot to discuss, so don’t forget to leave a thumbs up, subscribe, and turn on the notifications so you don’t miss future videos.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg TV, Jeffrey Currie revealed that global markets are "incredibly tight from a physical perspective," and warned on shortages of many commodities. “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie said on Monday. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

At this point, the shortage of virtually everything has translated into record price increases all across the board, according to Bloomberg’s Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks the costs of 23 different energy supplies, metals, and crops. This extraordinary surge is being driven by soaring oil prices, which have hit the highest level since 2014, with the benchmark Brent crude oil rising as high as $94 today, assuring even more pain at the pump. All of this chaos on global markets is affecting an overwhelming majority of U.S. businesses, which are already under extreme stress due to the new vírus outbreak, labor shortages, and other supply chain bottlenecks.

In addition to paying more expensive prices for commodities and raw materials, a report released this week by the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Business Voices group found that 97% of U.S.-based businesses are reporting operational difficulties given the “perfect storm” plaguing their production. The survey exposed that 89% of business owners say that labor constraints are impacting their bottom line. Nearly 84% have been struggling with inflation and widespread price increases, with 76% of those respondents noting that higher prices are having negative impacts on their financial health. Meanwhile, shortages of materials and parts have led 37% of U.S. businesses to temporarily close or scale back operations.

Altogether, more than 90% of study participants - which included board members and leaders in the supply chain and procurement departments - report that raw material prices have risen significantly compared to a year ago. At least, 45% of these companies have recently been unable to operate at full capacity due to the lower supply of raw materials. In a note about the latest disruptions, Lecat, a Managing Director at Inverto, said: “In the short term, companies cannot escape rising prices, you can't beat the world market, and this crisis affects everyone – both internationally and the direct competitors. The most important thing businesses can do right now is to secure supplies in order to maintain delivery capacity.”

However, it’s safe to say that not all of them will be able to restock their inventories and afford premium prices. Almost 76% of all respondents expect strong growth in raw material costs throughout the whole year. So far, prices for aluminum rose 48% compared to a year ago, the same as iron, steel, and plastics. Paper rose 40%, copper 36%, chemicals 27%, electricity jumped 27% and oil prices increase 23%.

The consequences of shortages and price hikes for small businesses are threatening their survival. Within six months, hundreds of thousands of U.S. small businesses may be bankrupt. But conditions have gone so out of control that some big names are suffering as well. For instance, due to the scarcity of metals, parts, and semiconductors, major automakers have been severely impacted. According to one estimate by the US-based consulting firm AlixPartners, the global chip shortage will cost the auto industry $210 billion this year.

Last week, Ford announced that the worsening shortage is hitting the company’s production numbers, which is forcing it to halt operations in several plants across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Ford joins many other automakers and tech companies facing the same issues, including, Tesla, Apple, and Sony. But the scarcity of chips has hit a wide cross-section of industries, causing backlogs of orders for products that go way beyond vehicles, but also consumer electronics and household appliances.

On the other hand, we have many signs that consumer demand is already cooling off. As inflation roars and people’s purchasing power shrinks, recessionary forces are gaining steam, and the coming hike in interest rates will accelerate this downward trend even further. That’s to say, business owners should start preparing for the worst while consumers should brace for a very turbulent year."

"Winter Storm Warning"

"Winter Storm Warning"
by Brian Maher

“To everything there is a season,” Ecclesiastes informs us - winter, spring, summer, autumn. We must assume economies, stock markets - perhaps civilization itself - offer no exceptions. They too must roll in rhythm with the cycling seasons. A season may run for months. Or Years. Decades. Centuries. Today we turn our focus from the passing weather. It is the long view, the overall view - the seasonal view - that commands our attention. Economies and stock markets sprout, blossom, fade - and die. Sometimes summer extends far into autumn before letting go. And sometimes winter holds its iron grip deep into calendar spring.

Stock Market Seasons: The stock market winter of 1929 - for example - was so fierce the ice held 25 years. Only in 1954 did stocks thaw to pre-freeze levels. The years 1982–2000 - conversely - were extended summer for the stock market. Between August 1982 and December 1999, compounded real returns on the Dow Jones ran to 15% per annum. Chill northern gusts occasionally blew on in - as in 1987. But they blew out as rapidly. Investors believed they had discovered something approaching perpetual summer.

Yet summer yields inevitably to winter. Indian summer may delay winter’s onset, it is true. But soon or late, Mr. Jack Frost pays his visit. An arctic gale came barreling in, 2001–2002. Another - even icier - swept through in 2008–2009. The fiercest blast of all tore through in 2020, out of China. But the Federal Reserve dialed the furnaces to blistering levels…

Record Heat: Its record heat soon broke the ice. And today - despite recent chills - the stock market posts record warmth. Is it summer once again for the stock market? Or is it heading into a 20-year winter… similar to the 25-year winter of 1929–54?

Consider: By spring 1930, the stock market had made good many of its October ’29 losses. Thawings extended through 1931. As Jim Rickards notes: "Stocks rose 28.6% from Nov. 17, 1929 – April 20, 1930. They rose 13.2% from June 22 – Sept. 7, 1930. Stocks rallied again by 17.5% from Jan. 18 – Feb. 22, 1931. Finally, stocks rallied 22.2% between May 31 – June 28, 1931. Yet these proved fleeting thaws between deep, deep freezing-overs. Overall, the Dow Jones plunged 89.2% from 1929 – 32. Perhaps this post-pandemic recovery is merely a transient, artificial thaw.

Prepare for a Freeze: Mr. Raul Elizalde of Path Financial, writing in Forbes: "The stock market has been very generous in the past 13 years. The S&P 500 is six times higher than the financial crisis low of 2009 and every decline since proved to be an opportunity to buy. But the market generosity may have reached its limits. Historically speaking, U.S. stocks as an asset class are as expensive as they have ever been…

Adjusted for inflation, the price of the S&P 500 index is in fact higher than during the “irrational exuberance” days of the late 1990s’ dot-com boom, which was followed by a two-year dragged-out 50% slump from its peak."

Are you prepared for a 50% stock market freeze? If you are retired - or nearing retirement, you likely are not. Here is a warning of ice: And if one were to look for a reason why the next likely direction is not upward, it would be that the regime that supported increasingly expensive stocks is no longer in place. That is, the Federal Reserve is preparing to work the furnace settings back. Rate hikes and quantitative tightening are in immediate prospect. Can the market warm itself, spark its own flame? We are not confident it can.

A 20-Year Winter? Given present stock market valuations… how long might winter last? Mr. Michael Carr instructs technical analysis at New York Institute of Finance. Says he: “Starting from this level, stocks are likely to disappoint over the next 20 years.” Twenty years? That is correct:

When the P/E ratio is near all-time highs, as it is now, the S&P 500 delivers annual returns averaging about 5% over the next 20 years. When the P/E ratio is near all-time lows, returns are about three times higher, averaging 15.4% a year over the next 20 years.

Yet as we have stated before: Climate is what you can expect. Weather is what you actually get. Perhaps the Federal Reserve will back off, perhaps it will extend the summer season, perhaps it will hold the sun up in the sky a bit longer. Yet all indications run the other way…

Entering the Winter Phase: The Daily Reckoning’s Charles Hugh Smith argues winter may be closing in. Charles believes the world is now marked by “souring social mood, loss of purchasing power, stagnating wages, rising inequality, devaluing currencies, rising debt, political polarization and elite disunity.” “These are all characteristics,” Charles laments, “of the long-wave social-economic cycle that is entering the disintegrative (winter) phase.”

Charles leans on the work of historian Peter Turchin. This fellow explores historical cycles of social disintegration and integration over 50-, 150- and 200-year cycles in his civilization almanac, Ages of Discord. Turchin identifies three primary forces pushing these cycles: an oversupply of labor that suppresses real wages; an overproduction of parasitic elites; a deterioration in state finances. These cycles are as natural as the seasons - and perhaps as inevitable.

Real American wages have held essentially flat for decades. Evidence suggests the bottom half of American adults earn no more than they did in the 1970s.

An overproduction of parasitic elites? We append no comment.

A deterioration in state finances? The Treasury groans under a $30 trillion national debt that is growing - daily.

We could continue… but mercy forbids it. The Horae - the Greek goddesses of the seasons - are fickle and capricious beings. We have our winter apparel ready. Do you? More tomorrow."

Gregory Mannarino, "'The New Economy': Bank Of America Warns Again! Borrowing Costs Surge"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 2/9/22:
"'The New Economy': 
Bank Of America Warns Again! Borrowing Costs Surge"

Musical Interlude: Vangelis, "Hymn"

Full screen recommended.
Vangelis, "Hymn"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"What's happening at the center of the Trifid Nebula? Three prominent dust lanes that give the Trifid its name all come together. Mountains of opaque dust appear near the bottom, while other dark filaments of dust are visible threaded throughout the nebula. A single massive star visible near the center causes much of the Trifid's glow. The Trifid, cataloged as M20, is only about 300,000 years old, making it among the youngest emission nebulas known.
The star forming nebula lies about 9,000 light years away toward the constellation of the Archer (Sagittarius). The region pictured here spans about 10 light years. The featured image is a composite with luminance taken from an image by the 8.2-m ground-based Subaru Telescope, detail provided by the 2.4-m orbiting Hubble Space Telescope, color data provided by Martin Pugh and image assembly and processing provided by Robert Gendler."

"Calling it Quits"

"Calling it Quits"
by Bill Bonner

Dublin, Ireland - “Love and work are the cornerstones of human happiness.” ~ Sigmund Freud

“If you worked for me, I’d slap your hand with my trowel,” Mick told us with a smile on Friday. We were working with him on the stone wall on the west side of our garden. The wall is designed to keep out deer… and break the cold winds coming off the Atlantic. And while we have worked off-and-on at DIY masonry projects for many, many years, we never had any proper training.

“Never put the pins in like that,” Mick explained. For what it is worth, the little stones – known as ‘pins’ – used to fill in the gaps between the big stones, should not be set upright, but on their sides. Every day, the wall comes closer to completion. And every day, we look out at 8 am with growing satisfaction; Mick and his helper, Connie, are on the job. They are getting something done. Something of value.

And every day we wonder: what have Silicon Valley and Wall Street done for us lately? We see the value of what Mick and Connie are doing; but as to America’s leading industries… we’re not so sure. Do our hamburgers taste better, thanks to the money-masters at Goldman Sachs? Does our roof shed water thanks to the whiz kids who work for Google? Is the view from our dining room more fetching… is our back still stiff? Is our hair still disappearing?

Yes, now we can stream movies at home. But is that really so much better than going to the theater? And we can ‘chat’ on-line… for hours and hours. But is that an improvement on getting together for a drink? Or actually, hanging up and getting some work done? Is the electronic media just souped-up TV? Wasting our time, and leaving us poorer?

Anti-Social Media: Young people, 16-24, spend an average of 21 hours per week – equal to half of a full-time job – on social media. Unlike our money, time can’t be faked. Wouldn’t it be better to use it learning something useful?

But people vote with the money. (Who are we to tell them how to spend it?) And they’ve voted heavily in favor of Netflix, Google, Amazon… and a whole ticket of internet-based candidates. But they can change their minds. The S&P 500 went down 10% in January. The Nasdaq, where the techs tend to reside, fell 15%. Facebook dropped 25% in a single day last week, marking the largest one day loss for an American company in the history of the US stock exchange. Mr. Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, saw his personal net worth plummet by $31 billion... roughly the GDP of Estonia. How does one man “lose” an entire country’s annual output in a single day? Where did it go?

And what about Peloton? The company sells an exercise bike, with a computer screen mounted on the handlebars, for $2,000. It took a loss of almost half a billion dollars last year. And its stock – once the darling of the tech investors – dropped 85% since December 2020.

What happened? And what made them so valuable in the first place? The business plan for almost the whole Silicon sector – including Google, Facebook and Peloton – was the same: capture someone’s ‘eyeballs’ and you’ll be able to sell him more stuff. At first, it worked beautifully. Unlike its rivals in the print media, the new companies didn’t have the expense of printing or delivering paper. Neither did they have to pay for ‘content;’ users provided the cat videos and mindless commentaries themselves. And finally, they could target their advertising much more precisely, allowing customers to choose only what they wanted to see and allowing them to tailor ads to the reader’s individual interests. That’s why ads seem to ‘follow you around’ as you cruise the worldwide web.

A TikTok to the Face: But the model had built-in limits. The industrial revolution increased incomes, giving consumers more money to buy the new output. But the Internet revolution has done no such thing. Consumer incomes have been mostly flat… and are now, after inflation, declining. Time remains constant. So, the new companies were never actually creating new wealth; they were just taking eyeballs and ad revenue from traditional media. Then, when the low-hanging fruit had been picked, they scrapped with each other for market share. That’s why TikTok is such a threat to Facebook… and why its price fell so sharply when word got out that it was losing the battle.

Drawing back, we see more dots to connect, and a more ghastly picture: While investment in the tech sector soared…capital was drawn away from ‘old industries.’ Now, there is more and more ‘click bait’ on the internet, but we’re running out of real stuff.

Yesterday came this news item from Bloomberg: "Jeff Currie, the closely-followed head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., says he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now. “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

Real things need to be coaxed out of the ground… heated and hammered… distilled and distributed… by real people. But what’s this? People are so busy on their cellphones, they don’t have time for real work. Here’s a report from 60 Minutes… "The government's jobs report released [in early January] tells us what has happened: well over 20 million people quit their jobs in the second half of 2021. Some are calling it the "big quit," others the "great resignation."

Huh? Commodities vanishing. People leaving their jobs. Another report shows the “labor participation rate” back to where it was in the ‘70s… before women went to work, en masse. And today, one out of every eight working-age men is unemployed.

Alive… but not kicking (in): Last week’s employment report also showed that those still working aren’t working as much as they used to. The “aggregate hours worked” figure is still below 2019’s level. Then there’s this chart, from the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco, which shows the percentage of retired individuals as a share of labor force nonparticipants.

(Source: Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco)

What to make of it? Dots all over the place. At first, they seem unconnected, like marbles loosed onto a concrete floor. But wait…. The closer we look… the more the pattern becomes clear… Prices rising… workers idle… a parasitic elite… transfer payments increasing… An ugly scene. Stay tuned...

"The Supply Chain Ate My Homework - No Solutlon Till 2023"

Full screen recommend.
Dan, iAllegedly, AM 2/8/22:
"The Supply Chain Ate My Homework - No Solutlon Till 2023"
"The supply chain problem is affecting everyone. This is only getting worse. This will be destructive towards businesses throughout the rest of 2022. There will be no solution at all until the new year."

The Poet: Robinson Jeffers, "We Are Those People"

"We Are Those People"

"I have abhorred the wars and despised the liars,
laughed at the frightened
And forecast victory; never one moment's doubt.
But now not far, over the backs of some crawling years, the next
Great war's column of dust and fire writhes
Up the sides of the sky: it becomes clear that we too may suffer
What others have, the brutal horror of defeat -
Or if not in the next, then in the next - therefore watch Germany
And read the future. We wish, of course, that our women
Would die like biting rats in the cellars,
our men like wolves on the mountain:
It will not be so. Our men will curse, cringe, obey;
Our women uncover themselves to the grinning victors
for bits of chocolate."

- Robinson Jeffers

"It Strikes Me...

“It goes against the American storytelling grain to have someone in a situation he can’t get out of, but I think this is very usual in life. There are people, particularly dumb people, who are in terrible trouble and never get out of it, because they’re not intelligent enough. It strikes me as gruesome and comical that in our culture we have an expectation that man can always solve his problems. This is so untrue that it makes me want to cry - or laugh.”
- Kurt Vonnegut

"Once Upon a Time, The End"

"Once Upon a Time, The End"
by Martin Zamyatin

"Those that can make you believe absurdities
can make you commit atrocities."
- Voltaire

"The small group of devoted followers gathered around Chicago housewife Dorothy Martin sat in stunned silence as the clock on her suburban living room wall struck midnight on the twentieth of December, 1954…and nothing happened. Many had left jobs and spouses and given away all their money and possessions in order to await the arrival of alien beings from the planet Clarion, who Martin had assured them would descend at that appointed hour, carrying the faithful few off in their flying saucers just before huge floods engulfed the planet Earth. Finally, four hours after their scheduled departure time, Martin broke her silence.

As the group readjusted their bras, belts, and zippers - having been instructed to discard any metal objects which might interfere with the aliens’ telepathic radio transmissions - their tearful host revealed the reason why their intergalactic rescuers had failed to appear: Apparently it had all been only an elaborate test of faith, and the group’s advanced state of enlightenment had saved the entire planet from a watery destruction!

Surprisingly, only one or two of Martin’s followers were unconvinced by this perfectly rational explanation. Among them, however, was social psychologist Leon Festinger, who had secretly infiltrated the group. Festinger would later write about Martin - using the pseudonym of Marian Keech - in his groundbreaking 1958 book, "When Prophecy Fails." (Not surprisingly, Festinger is credited with coining the psychological term ‘cognitive dissonance.’)

Following publication of Festinger’s book, the group predictably collapsed under the weight of public ridicule. Martin fled to Peru to warn the clueless natives about the imminent re-emergence of Atlantis, before later resurfacing in Arizona, where she joined crackpot L. Ron Hubbard’s nascent pseudoscientific movement, Scientology.

It seems that for as long as people have inhabited the world, they have anticipated its imminent demise. (In fact, the oldest known apocalyptic prediction is depicted on Assyrian tablets from 2800 BC.) In what may be the earliest example in European folklore, a Frankish villager wandered off into the forest in 591, only to be accosted by a swarm of ravenous flies. Overwhelmed, the poor fellow completely lost his mind and returned to his village clothed in animal pelts, claiming he was Jesus Christ, sent to gather his flock before the coming Rapture. (Perhaps resenting the competition, a local bishop hired a gang of thugs to capture the Lord of the Flies, who they rapturously hacked into little bits.)

The failure of one apocalyptic prophecy not only failed to deter its devoted followers but in fact spawned several entirely new religions. When the world failed to end as predicted in the ‘Great Disappointment’ of 1843-44, Massachusetts preacher William Miller’s tens of thousands of followers splintered off to found the Seventh Day Adventists, as well as the obnoxious doorknockers known as Jehovah’s Witnesses. When the next fateful year of 1874 passed without the desired fireworks, the latter’s charismatic founder, Charles Taze Russell, explained that Jesus had indeed returned, but was invisible to all except the truly devout. (Predictably, few dared admit to being lacking in the requisite level of faith.)

The founder of Mormonism, Joseph Smith, had declared way back in 1832 that 1890 would be the year of Jesus’s long awaited return engagement. (Later jailed for fraud, Smith somehow failed to predict his own deliverance by an angry mob at age 39.) Russell revised the fateful year to 1881…then 1914…and finally, 1918. (The latter dates spanned World War I and the Spanish Flu epidemic, events that while apocalyptic for many, fell short of being world ending.)

Our own time has seen the horrors of the Peoples Temple - in which 914 adults and children committed suicide in the jungles of Guyana in 1978; the Branch Davidians, an offshoot of the Seventh Day Adventists - 75 of whom died in the FBI standoff at Waco in 1993; Aum Shinri Kyo -whose poison gas attacks on the Tokyo subway in 1994-95 left 19 innocent people dead; and -neither least nor unfortunately, last - Heaven’s Gate, 39 of whose members committed suicide in 1996, fully expecting (like Dorothy Martin) their spirits to be carried away by aliens hiding in the wake of an approaching comet.

It was probably no coincidence that all of these cults were acting in anticipation of an impending Bible-inspired Day ofJudgement. One is tempted to blame these kinds of incidents on the delusions of a small minority of misguided religious fanatics, except that millions of people alive today are expecting an imminent Biblical apocalypse. In a 2012 global poll, fully one out of 7 people said they thought the world would end during their lifetime - and rather ominously, Americans topped the list of doomsayers at 22%. Since their government has the means to fulfil their death wish many times over, one can only hope their gloomy prediction won’t one day become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Just call it a bedtime story for humanity."

The Daily "Near You?"

Gilbert, Arizona, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"A Deep Attentiveness..."

“When the pain of leaving behind what we know outweighs the pain of embracing it, or when the power we face is overwhelming and neither flight nor fight will save us, there may be salvation in sitting still. And if salvation is impossible, then at least before perishing we may gain a clearer vision of where we are. By sitting still I do not mean the paralysis of dread, like that of a rabbit frozen beneath the dive of a hawk. I mean something like reverence, a respectful waiting, a deep attentiveness to forces much greater than our own.”
- Scott Russell Sanders

"We Have Never Been More Vulnerable, And The Stage Has Now Been Set For A Complete And Total Economic Collapse"

"We Have Never Been More Vulnerable, And The Stage 
Has Now Been Set For A Complete And Total Economic Collapse"
by Michael Snyder

"Teetering on a precipice can seem exciting until something comes along that knocks you over the edge. Unfortunately, the events of the past couple of years have perfectly set the stage for a global economic collapse of unprecedented size and scope. Inflation is out of control all over the planet, the worst global supply chain crisis since World War II continues to get worse with each passing day, and the vast majority of the global population is just barely scraping by from month to month. In other words, we have never been more vulnerable than we are right now.

Even in the United States, a shockingly high percentage of the population literally lives on the brink of financial disaster. According to a brand new survey that was just released, seven out of every ten Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck… "In these tough financial times, a new study finds it’s getting harder and harder for people to save any of their money. In fact, seven in 10 Americans say they’re living paycheck to paycheck. A recent survey of 2,007 adults found that 63 percent don’t see themselves reaching a level of financial security that will allow them to live the lifestyle they want."

Most people do not have a sizable financial cushion to fall back on. And even though our leaders in Washington have absolutely flooded the system with new money over the past two years, more than two-thirds of the country is living paycheck to paycheck. As bad as things have been, it is only a matter of time before another major crisis of some sort comes along. So what is going to happen when the other shoe finally drops?

During this pandemic we have also seen global supplies of just about everything get tighter and tighter and tighter. In fact, the head commodity strategist for Goldman Sachs just publicly admitted that the world is now facing shortages of virtually all major commodities

In a time when social networks have been swamped with photos of empty shelves from across the nation, Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now. “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

Read that last paragraph again.

This is a really big deal.

You may not realize it yet, but this isn’t just a temporary global supply chain crisis. This is the beginning of a global supply chain collapse. So what is going to happen when the other shoe finally drops?

All over the planet, way too much money is chasing way too few goods and services. This is driving up prices at a staggering pace, and we continue to get more troubling news with each passing day. For example, even though meat prices have already gone up very aggressively, Tyson Foods just announced that it will be raising prices yet again… "Stock of Tyson Foods, the world’s second largest processor and marketer of chicken, beef, and pork after Brazil’s JBS S.A., is soaring 9%, hitting an all time high and is one of the S&P’s best companies this morning after the company reported blowout earnings (thanks to passing on surging food prices) and announced that it is raising prices even more as it grapples with a tight labor market and smaller livestock herds. According to the report, beef prices jumped by 32% in the quarter, with chicken up ~20% and pork 13%."

Of course similar things are happening in other industrialized nations all over the globe. One British news sources is telling us that the economy in Germany “is in freefall” and that “devastating” price hikes are causing a tremendous amount of pain for consumers over there.

So what is going to happen when the other shoe finally drops? Needless to say, a lot of people can see what is coming and they are taking steps to get prepared. Earlier today, I came across a Wall Street Journal article that lamented the fact that so many Americans are engaged in “hoarding”… "Alexis Abell recently walked out of a BJ’s Wholesale Club outside Buffalo, N.Y., with 24 boxes of Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, a box of 50 frozen mozzarella sticks, a 40-pound bag of basmati rice and a 12-can pack of garbanzo beans. “I don’t want to be in a position again where I can’t get something,” says Ms. Abell, a 41-year-old mother of five, who was laid off from her retail job at a quilt shop in 2020 and decided not to return to work."

I don’t call this “hoarding” at all. I call it being smart. The stupid people are those that expect the government to bail them out when everything starts hitting the fan. As I have discussed previously, the federal government has a very limited amount of food, water and generators at eight widely scattered FEMA distribution centers around the country. Other than that, the federal government purchases a very small amount of food that it distributes through foreign aid programs. In the event of a major national emergency, the government’s meager supplies will be totally gone almost immediately. Then you will be on your own.

The elite realize that global food supplies are only going to get tighter, and so they have been preparing for a time when bug protein will make up a significant chunk of our diets.
Full screen recommended.

Doesn’t that sound yummy?

We are rapidly moving into a time when normal people won’t be able to afford to eat meat on a regular basis. Once that day arrives, where will you get your protein?

Our world is changing at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking, but most people still want to believe that everything will go back to “normal” eventually."

Gregory Mannarino, "Markets: Critical Updates"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 2/8/22:
"Markets: Critical Updates"

"I Hate War..."

 
"I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, 
only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity."
- Dwight D. Eisenhower