"Even The Liberal Media Is Warning Of A 'System Collapse' Due To The Failure Of Global Supply Chains"

"Even The Liberal Media Is Warning Of A 'System Collapse' 

Due To The Failure Of Global Supply Chains"

by Michael Snyder

"If CNN starts sounding like The Economic Collapse Blog, what does that mean? Unfortunately, the truth about what is in our immediate future is becoming apparent to everyone. Global supply chains are in a state of complete and utter chaos, and this is driving up prices and causing widespread shortages all over the country. Over the past couple of weeks, I have written five articles with either “shortage” or “shortages” in the title, and some have accused me of being a little alarmist. If that is the case, then CNN is being alarmist too, because one of their top stories today openly warned of a “global transport system collapse”…

In an open letter Wednesday to heads of state attending the United Nations General Assembly, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and other industry groups warned of a “global transport system collapse” if governments do not restore freedom of movement to transport workers and give them priority to receive vaccines recognized by the World Health Organization.

For decades, we have all been able to take our extremely complex supply chains for granted. Things have always been where they need to be when they needed to be there, and many of us just assumed that it would always be that way.

But now organizations that represent 65 million transport workers around the globe are openly warning that “global supply chains are beginning to buckle”… “Global supply chains are beginning to buckle as two years’ worth of strain on transport workers take their toll,” the groups wrote. The letter has also been signed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Road Transport Union (IRU) and the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF). Together they represent 65 million transport workers globally. “All transport sectors are also seeing a shortage of workers, and expect more to leave as a result of the poor treatment millions have faced during the pandemic, putting the supply chain under greater threat,” it added."

Things are particularly bad at our ports. Right now, there is a backlog of approximately 500,000 shipping containers waiting on ships off the west coast waiting to be unloaded… As an estimated 500,000 containers are sitting on cargo ships off the Southern California coast, many are wondering how to handle the backlog.

Needless to say, we have never seen anything like this before. But what most Americans don’t realize is that the backlog off the coast of China is even worse…"There are over 60 container ships full of import cargo stuck offshore of Los Angeles and Long Beach, but there are more than double that - 154 as of Friday - waiting to load export cargo off Shanghai and Ningbo in China, according to eeSea, a company that analyzes carrier schedules.

The number of container ships anchored off Shanghai and Ningbo has surged over recent weeks. There are now 242 container ships waiting for berths countrywide. Whether it’s due to heavy export volumes, Typhoon Chanthu or COVID, rising congestion in China is yet another wild card for the trans-Pacific trade."

If you are waiting for something to come in from overseas, you may be waiting for a very long time. Because of all the chaos, we are being warned that this could be a holiday season like no other…"Retailers are sounding the alarm on the upcoming holiday shopping season due to serious supply chain issues that are slowing shipments of manufactured goods around the world."

Chaos theory in it’s simplest form says if a butterfly flaps its wings in China, it means rain in Central Park. Well, that applies not just to weather, but supply chains as well, and in the Bay Area, it will impact everything from computer parts for your car to the gifts and toys on your holiday shopping list. If there is something that you really want to get your hands on, you might want to order it now, because it may not be available later.

In addition to shortages, supply chain issues are also pushing prices significantly higher. For example, we just learned that the price of bacon has risen almost 28 percent over the past year… "The average price for that slab of bacon to accompany the Sunday morning spread has jumped nearly 28% during the past 12 months, inflation-adjusted Consumer Price Index data show."

The supply chain issues and inflationary pressures that have become all-too common in these pandemic times certainly have played theirs roles in the pork price hikes, alongside a slew of industry-specific influence. A lot of people may be forced to stop eating bacon as a result of soaring prices, and from a health perspective that is not a bad thing.

And the price of bacon is going to continue to go higher, because U.S. hog herds are shrinking at a brisk pace… "US hog herds experienced the most significant monthly drop in two decades, according to new data from the USDA. The reason behind the drop is because farmers decreased hog-herd development over the last year due to labor disruptions at slaughterhouses plus high animal feed.

USDA data showed the US hog herd was 3.9% lower in August than a year ago. It was the largest monthly drop since 1999 after analysts only expected a decline of about 1.7%, according to Bloomberg."

Many of you already don’t eat bacon, and so what I just shared may not affect you, but what about a shortage of potatoes?Incredibly, it is being reported that some fast food outlets are now running out of French Fries. The following comes from Matt Stoller… "My favorite story is quintessentially American, and un-American, at the same time. It’s from a Florida realtor who was in a hurry and stopped at a Burger King for lunch. He saw a sign, “Sorry. No French Fries with any order. We have no potatoes.” At first he thought he was imagining things. What kind of fast food place runs out of fries? Is this, he wondered, a sign of things to come?"

It’s a good question. Fast food exists in a land of plenty, of surplus, of mass produced food with a reliable infrastructure of trucks, trains, farms, and distributors. Shortages of everyday goods conflicts not only with most of our lived experiences, but also with our very conception of who we are. There’s a name for this framework, and it’s called affluence. I really like how Stoller made that last point.

So many of us think that since we are the most prosperous nation on the entire planet that long-term shortages could never happen to us. But they are happening. And if you think that what we are experiencing now is bad, just wait until we get a few more years down the road.

From the very top to the very bottom, our entire economic system is being shaken. If you are expecting our national leaders to come in with some sort of a quick fix to this crisis, you are going to be waiting a really, really long time. The blind are leading the blind, and the months ahead are going to be very challenging."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

“You Are a Cretin”

“You Are a Cretin”

by Brian Maher

"Your editor - we regret to inform you - is a cretin. This we have on the authority of reader Matt P. Matt’s note lists credentials indicating he is a man of high finance. He is evidently a grandee at a New York financial concern. From whom: "Brian Maher is a cretin. I just visited the website and saw his “The Most Dangerous Man” piece. Invoking bad statistics and the typical slew of denialist blather, he is clearly deficient in most intellectual respects. Thank you for sharing. Yep…" And we do thank Matt for sharing. We adore his ferocity, his heat, his righteous zeal to denounce our evils and to put us to rights. We have no doubt that he is with the angels... and that they are with him.

Bad Statistics: Matt refers of course to Sept. 23’s Reckoning, bearing the title he cites above. We do not know the statistics to which he refers - he did not specify our particular botchwork. Here were the only statistics we cited. The first: All evidence - we are told - indicates transmission is an indoor hazard.

Yet the state of Oregon requires facial coverings in most outdoor spaces where asocial distancing is not possible… including the vaccinated. Our men inform us the same state of Oregon has endured a 73% increase in cases since the edict entered effect - incidentally. That 73% is a figure plenty handsome. Would Oregon have endured an even greater increase absent the outside mask mandate? We do not know how the figures would differ to any plausible degree.

Yet we are willing to take correction if facts warrant. Recall, we are clearly deficient in most intellectual respects. Hopefully… by God’s grace... not all intellectual respects. Yet doubt haunts our sleepless and fitful nights. But to proceed…

Great Britain: Here is our second mangled statistic: In Great Britain, 75% of the deceased are vaccinated. We received recent correspondence from an overseas colleague. He cited reasons why the statistics lean toward Matt. That is, evidence why elevated vaccinated sicknesses and deaths do not equal vaccine failure:

"Of course the percentage of vaccinated in hospitals goes up. The more people you vaccinated, the higher the ratio of cases that you see will be those that “break through” the medical barrier. Simply because the ratio of unvaccinated to infected has gone down, as has the overall pool of infected/hospitalized. The vaccinated cases are simply a larger ratio of a smaller pool."

Just so. Perhaps there is justice here. But the 75% statistic we cited represents far more than an increase - if accurate. Of course… as we have argued previously, statistics are lovely liars. They often tell gorgeous tales. In improper hands they are devils. Thus we empty our hands of them… and place them into holier hands.

Higher Death Rate Among the Vaccinated: Here are two men alert to statistical wizardry, alert to statistical feints and ploys, alert to statistical fabulism… Here Messieurs Norman Fenton and Martin Neil - both masters of the statistical arts and sciences - penetrate the British numbers: It turns out that, even [accounting for this] age-adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated… In contrast to the unvaccinated, the mortality rates for the vaccinated have initially increased from very low initial values, but then have increased, whilst that for the unvaccinated has decreased…

We can conclude that the Office for National Statistics' own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety. Other professional statisticians may disagree. Yet we are fond of bad statistics. Thus these are the cherries we pluck from the branches. Here is another fine cherry, another bad statistic…"95% of Hospitalisations Are Vaccinated." Victoria, Australia, reported 867 fresh COVID cases Tuesday. And 375 require hospitalization. Of these, 81 require intensive treatment and 61 require ventilation. Were the majority vaccination-free? They were not emphatically not.

Victoria’s health minister claims: “Of the people who were in hospital yesterday, 78% were vaccinated and 17% were partially vaccinated”… That is, 95% of these miserables languishing in Victorian sick houses are vaccinated - and 78% vaccinated to the brim. The virus nonetheless has them by the throat. Now come home…

Some 70% of fully vaccinated inmates in one Texas prison suffered infection, says the Centers for Disease Control. It is also true that 93% of unvaccinated inmates likewise suffered affliction. The potions skewed the odds in a favorable direction. Yet is a 70% infection rate among the vaccinated a triumph?

A Hypothetical: If 70% of women taking birth control medicines soon began swelling in the abdomen… would the medicines be a success? And what if it sickened them - or murdered them? According to bad statistics disseminator and “cancelled” Dr. Joseph Mercola, the vacciness just may sicken and murder:

As of Sept. 3, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) had received 675,591 reports of adverse events following vaccination. Of these, there were 14,506 deaths, 6,422 heart attacks and 5,371 cases of pericarditis or myocarditis. It is important to note that the VAERS has tracked adverse events since 1990. In 2019, there were 605 reports of deaths from all vaccines given. In 2021, there were 14,594 deaths reported in nine months. What if the numbers are far, far greater?

Although these numbers are significant, a 2010 Harvard study commissioned by the Department of Health and Human Services revealed data demonstrating the VAERS likely only represents approximately 1% of those who are injured.

Next we come to our third statistical example, the Israeli example. From the Sept. 23 Reckoning: In Israel, perhaps the most vaccinated nation of Earth, the vaccinated are likewise being savaged. The medical director at Jerusalem’s Herzog Hospital claims 95% of severe cases therein are vaccinated - fully vaccinated. Yet perhaps Jerusalem’s Herzog Hospital fails to represent the Israeli scene in its totality.

"Most of the Hospitalized Patients Are Actually Vaccinated": Science magazine nonetheless reported that… through Aug. 15… 59% of hospitalized Israelis had been fully vaccinated. A certain Uri Shalit - bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology - claims "most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated." Meantime, The Times of Israel reports “the current wave of coronavirus infections is surpassing anything seen in previous outbreaks.” Yet 84% of Israelis aged 12 and over are inoculated. Still the nation “boasts” being among the world’s highest number of cases per capita.

We expect to land in Matt’s canine house for peddling additional bad statistics. Then let Dr. Leana Wen join us. Dr. Wen is a CNN medical analyst. She is a vaccination enthusiast. Yet she concedes the vaccinated are presently more vulnerable to the Delta variant. They haul around a larger cargo of virus than the unvaccinated. And so she maintains the vaccinated hold the unvaccinated at gunpoint.

Vaccinated People Are Dangerous to Others: Perhaps it is the unvaccinated who should shun the vaccinated… rather than the reverse. Here is Dr. Christian Perronne - fellow of France’s renowned Institut Pasteur - and former vice president of the WHO’s European Advisory Group: "Vaccinated people are at risk of the new variants and transmission. It’s been proven in different countries… Unvaccinated people are not dangerous; vaccinated people are dangerous to others. It’s proven in Israel now, where I’m in contact with many physicians in Israel. They’re having big problems now; severe cases in hospitals are among vaccinated people. And in the U.K. also, you had a larger vaccination program and also there are problems."

Perhaps this fellow stretches the facts. We do not know. Yet of this we are presently confident: A “pandemic of the unvaccinated”… is a fabulous fiction.

Denialist Blather: What of Matt’s claim that we spew “denialist blather”? What are we in fact denying? We have never denied the virus is a potential murderer. We never denied it is a menace to many. The aged, the existing sick, the obese… all of these suffer elevated risk… as we have acknowledged.

We have never counseled against vaccination - only that readers should arm themselves with a full magazine of facts - to arrive at an informed decision. Yet what about the robust? What about the young? The odds favor them to astonishing degrees. Very few end up in the hospital or over the rainbow. Why should they require vaccination… especially with vaccines that may not be formidable? And why should the naturally immune require vaccination when studies indicate their armor is perhaps 27 times thicker than the vaccinateds’?

We nonetheless acknowledge Matt for his high service to the human species… by exposing our villainies and declaring us infamous. In token of his high service... We are dispatching Matt, by way of United States mail, a preliminary draft of a book we are currently preparing.We trust the high quality of the statistics therein will astound Matt and gobsmack him. They will knock him over. And they will persuade him. He will take our conclusions aboard.

The book bears this tentative title: "Trump Was Right: Drink Bleach, Cure COVID."

Cretinously yours,"

Brian Maher

- dailyreckoning.com

“Tiny Chicken Wings; Banks To Expose Your Financial Privacy; Dollar Stores Boom”

Jeremiah Babe, PM 9/29/21:

“Tiny Chicken Wings;

 Banks To Expose Your Financial Privacy; Dollar Stores Boom”

"Home Prices Soared By 259 Percent In The Greatest Real Estate Bubble: Housing Crash Coming!"

Full screen recommended.

"Home Prices Soared By 259 Percent In The 

Greatest Real Estate Bubble: Housing Crash Coming!"

by Epic Economist

"The most splendid housing bubble in US history is ready to burst. Home prices are rising faster today than during the mortgage bubble of 2008. Policymakers are so alarmed about the record pace of home price appreciation that they announced tapering plans for the Federal Reserve's bond purchasing program, which would originally start in 2023, and now are set to begin at the end of this year. They're trying to avert a major financial catastrophe - much greater than what was seen during the previous housing crash. However, as inflation runs rampant, the looming housing bubble burst is likely to arrive sooner than they are bracing for. Several indicators show that the current housing market is nearing a peak similar to its late-2000s boom.

According to the latest reading of the National Case-Shiller Home Price Index, this month, the US real estate market has once again broken another record. Home prices surged 20% from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year increase in the data going back to 1987. But the index presents a nationwide average. When we look at the raging mania happening in metropolitan areas, we will find housing markets where prices soared up to 32% compared to last year's numbers. Needless to say, the Fed is getting seriously worried about this splendid home price inflation that is being added on top of the regular consumer price inflation that has hit 30-year highs. The mind-blowing price spikes recorded by the Case-Shiller Index across metropolitan areas show that home price inflation is at all-time highs.

According to the latest reading of the index, in the Los Angeles metro area, prices of single-family houses surged 1.4% last month and spiked by 19.1% year-over-year. However, in January 2000, all Case-Shiller Indices were set at 100. And today, the index value for Los Angeles is at 359, which means that house prices have skyrocketed by 259% since January 2000, despite the 2008 housing bubble burst. Moreover, the Consumer Price Index went up by 62% over the same period, which puts the LA metro area on the pedestal of being the most splendid housing bubble in the country, as explained by Wolf Richter in a recent analysis.

In the San Diego metro area, home prices increased by 1.6% this month and by 27.8% year-over-year. But since 2000, prices have skyrocketed by 255%. Similarly, in Seattle, where home prices went up by 25.5% year over year, since the latest boom, prices have soared a staggering 244%. The list goes on and on. But by now, you probably already got the point. The raging real estate boom is leaving millions of potential buyers out of the market. The truth is that the problem is even more acute in that corner of the market that once supported the American dream: the small entry-level home.

According to the real estate website Redfin, the median days on the market were just 12 in August, compared to nearly 36 days at the same time in 2020 and about 38 days in the same period of 2019. Some analysts, like Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, say that the Fed's move to artificially suppress interest rates has allowed the formation and inflation of the Everything Bubble, which includes homes, stocks, crypto, and collectibles.

“If you buy now, you’d be buying at the top,” Lachman says. “It’s not just the housing market but it’s all these other markets that are in danger of tanking.” Lachman fears the Fed will keep inflating the bubble. “It’s fun while they’re printing the money and everything is going up. But the question is what happens when interest rates go up. By keeping interest rates this low for this long, what they’ve done is they’ve created an everything bubble. It’s not just the housing market,” he added.

Bonds, housing, stocks and pretty much every asset will keep going up as long as the tens of trillions of printed dollars find some bubble to ride. We have entered a cycle in which everything will continue to hit unsustainable and giddy heights. These unreal valuations based on artificial money will keep causing so-called "unpredictable" crashes. All signs are there for those who want to see. But no one wants to worry about consequences these days. Just remember that bubbles don't always need a specific trigger event to burst. Eventually, they simply stop going up and that's when things start to fall apart. Even though it seems like there are no limits to this irrationality, in the real world, there are still limits to what central bank liquidity can do. And those policies are not just disturbing the imaginary world in which wealthy investors live, but also the reality of a slumping economy plagued by rising inflation."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

Musical Interlude: Ludovico Einaudi, "I Giorni"

Full screen recommended.

Ludovico Einaudi, "I Giorni"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"To the eye, this cosmic composition nicely balances the Bubble Nebula at the right with open star cluster M52. The pair would be lopsided on other scales, though. Embedded in a complex of interstellar dust and gas and blown by the winds from a single, massive O-type star, the Bubble Nebula, also known as NGC 7635, is a mere 10 light-years wide. On the other hand, M52 is a rich open cluster of around a thousand stars. The cluster is about 25 light-years across. 

Seen toward the northern boundary of Cassiopeia, distance estimates for the Bubble Nebula and associated cloud complex are around 11,000 light-years, while star cluster M52 lies nearly 5,000 light-years away. The wide telescopic field of view spans about 1.5 degrees on the sky or three times the apparent size of a full Moon."

-https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210925.html

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/29/21: "MMRI Rising; FED Chair Admits 'Inflation Will Persist"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/29/21:

"MMRI Rising; FED Chair Admits 'Inflation Will Persist"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"The Fourth Turning: 'Dark Years Are Here'"

"The Fourth Turning: 'Dark Years Are Here'"

by Egon von Greyerz

 

"In an ephemeral world, few things survive. I am not talking about species or human beings whose existence on earth is also transitory. Instead I am referring to social and financial systems which are now coming to an end. In July 2009 I wrote an article called "The Dark Years Are Here." It was reprinted again in September 2018. Here is an extract from my original article:

“The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different types of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle. According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval.

This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.

All of this is not good news and we hope that we and Howe are wrong regarding the severity and length of this crisis. But we fear that we are both right. We must stress again that never previously has the whole world entered a downturn simultaneously in such a fragile state both financially and economically which is why the Dark Years are likely to be so devastating and long lasting.”

The Inevitable Fall Of Society: Neil Howe’s book 'The Fourth Turning' had just been published when I wrote the article and it has since attained great fame. We are now in the final 8 years of his 20 year cycle and the most dramatic part of the cycle has just started which is the Fourth Turning.

In my 2009 article, I thought that the downturn was more imminent. But although I was slightly out on the timing, it doesn’t change the inevitable fall of the whole fabric of society in the next few years, be it commercial, financial or social.

Since 2009, global debt has doubled to $280 trillion and risk has increased exponentially. The final stage of the collapse started in August of 2019 with the central banks panicking and embarking on a massive money printing spree due to major problems in the financial system.

Coronavirus – A Catalyst: As I have stated previously, Coronavirus which started in early 2020, is not the reason for the current downturn in the world economy. It was just a catalyst. For some reason, when cycles are about to accelerate hard down, the trigger seems to be the worst possible. Although I have often talked about disease as one potential catalyst, I did not expect it to come now and cause a total lockdown of parts of the economy and society in so many countries.

When you are approaching the end of a financial era or cycle, it is very difficult to predict exactly how it will all end. Very few people understand that we are now living on borrowed time. But there is absolutely no doubt that we are now at the end of the end and of a major cycle, whether that takes 8 years as Howe predicts or it all happens much faster, is totally irrelevant.

The Unprepared Could Lose Everything: The risk is here now and if you don’t prepare for this, you are not just likely to lose whatever wealth you have but also your job, pension or social security depending on your circumstances. And if you live in a city, you are also likely to be affected by social unrest and crime plus a breakdown of services like medical care, schooling, law and order etc.

Many people are today trying to get out of the cities as a result of Coronavirus and the shut down of offices and shops as well as increased crime rates. For the wealthy minority, this is not a big problem but for normal people, it is not self-evident to just move out. But it is very clear that home working will become much more prevalent and many cities will become ghost towns. Tax revenue will decline dramatically and the authorities will not be able to keep up even simple services such as water, sanitation or cleaning. Also, many retail outlets and restaurants as well as offices in cities will close due to lack of customers, crime and out of town or online shopping. This trend has of course already started in many cities. In the City in London (Financial District), there are now very few people working. Only some shops or restaurants are open and the ones that are, are hemorrhaging financially.

The Deluge Could Come Sooner: Coming back to Howe’s 8 remaining years of the Fourth Turning, it is of course an approximate number and not absolute. The way I see it is that it will take up to 8 years and maybe less for the artificial edifice that the world has created to collapse. But it could also happen a lot quicker.

What I mean by artificial edifice is firstly all the fake assets that have been created due to central banks deliberate profligacy. Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, the bankers have taken total control of the money system. From 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, it became a total free for all for the (central) bankers. They could create unlimited amounts of money for their own benefit. Standing nearest the printing press is a major advantage when you print money. President Mugabe in Zimbabwe discovered this. By using the money from the printing press first, he could spend it quickly or buy dollars before the value of the printed money collapsed.

Printed Money Doesn't Reach Ordinary People: In the US, the Fed has since the latest crisis started in August 2019, printed $3.3 trillion, and most of it since March 2020. Very little of this money has reached ordinary people. If it had, it would have meant a contribution of $25,000 to every one of the 130 million households in the US. Although the printed is basically worthless, it might have had some short term beneficial effect on the broad economy.

But no, money printing is not for ordinary people. It is for the bankers and the wealthy and add more fuel or liquidity to already massively overvalued asset markets rather than reaching the people who really need it. This has caused the Nasdaq to go up by 62% since late March and the Dow by 52%.

DOW 50,000 – GOLD $50,000? In a recent article I discussed that we could see a liquidity fuelled meltup in stocks making the Dow double to say 50,000. Since I expect the Dow/Gold ratio to reach 1 to 1 or below (like in 1980 Dow 850 Gold $850), gold could at the same time reach $50,000 as inflation rises. As I consider stocks overbought and overvalued today, there is no fundamental or even technical reason for this to happen. Since markets today have nothing to do with fundamentals or sound valuation principles but are only liquidity driven, this kind of move is not impossible.

But investors must understand that I think it would be very high risk to stay fully invested in stocks currently. This is like buying the Nasdaq in 1999 to take part in the final rise but then to ride it all the way down to an 80% loss.

Much better instead to own gold, which fundamentally and technically is still early in a long term uptrend, kindly fuelled daily by central bank money printing. If the 50,000 forecast for the Dow and Gold would materialize, the Dow would double and Gold would go up 25x which is clearly a much better risk.

The US Is Bankrupt: Let’s face it, the US is bankrupt. No country, company or individual could lose money every year for 90 years and still be standing. (see my article). Normally the currency of such a country should have faded into oblivion. Well the dollar almost has since it is down 98% in real terms or gold since 1971 and down 85% since 2000. The only reason the dollar hasn’t disappeared totally yet is due to the Petrodollar. A major part of dollar assets are kept outside of the US due to the dollar liquidity created by the petrodollar.

The Petrodollar was created in the early 1970s by Nixon and the then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. They feared after the closing of the gold window that the dollar’s reserve currency role would diminish significantly. To save the dollar, Saudi Arabia was offered total military protection by the US on the condition that all oil trading would only be in dollars. Saudi Arabia would also buy substantial military equipment from the US.

The Imminent Demise Of The Dollar: This was a very clever arrangement and is the sole reason why the dollar is still standing. But the combination of a rapidly deteriorating US financial position and countries like China, Russia and Iran gradually trading in their own currencies, will soon precipitate the dollar’s demise.

Comparing currencies to each other is really a futile exercise since they are all going to ZERO. There is no prize for getting to the bottom first. Still in this exercise of relativity, it looks like the dollar will reach the bottom before the others. Having already lost 98% of its value in the last 50 years, the final 2% will not take that long. But remember that this 2% fall means a 100% loss of the dollar’s value from here.

Many people are very negative about the Euro due to the major problems in the EU. It is totally correct that the Euro is also a very weak and artificial currency. The Euro is virtually worth the same in dollars as on its launch on January 1st 1999. But right now, the Euro, in spite of its problems, technically looks stronger than the dollar.

So a crashing dollar over the next few years is virtually guaranteed and will act as a detonator which will blow up the US economy.

Also in the next 2-3 years we will see collapsing debt markets in the US and globally. Most debt in the world consists of printed money with no underlying real assets backing. Massively overvalued assets is backed by debt which will become totally worthless since it is only based on manufactured money issued by a printing press or a computer. When $10s of trillions are created with no labour, goods or service having been produced, that money clearly has ZERO value.

Interest Rates To Rise Strongly: We will not have permanent zero rates as the FED and Ray Dalio say. There are two virtual certainties coming before the imminent mega crisis is over. The first will be the collapse of the currency system as I discussed above. The second certainty is the collapse of credit markets including bonds. The manipulation of rates will totally fail. Central banks will try to keep short rates low but will lose control of the long rates. As insolvent governments and corporates start to default, investors, including sovereign, will dump bonds.

Bond prices will collapse and rates go to at least the levels in the 1970s to early 1980s of 15-20%. The combination of hyperinflation and defaulting borrowers will see many bonds going to zero and rates to infinity. As long rates rise, they will pull the short rates up regardless of central banks attempts to hold them down. This will lead to the demise of the bond market. Obviously, central banks will frenetically print trillions or even quadrillions as derivatives disappear into a black hole. But to no avail except for panic and hyperinflation.

Not The Time For Omphaloskepsis: So now is not the time for omphaloskepsis (navel gazing) or for investors to gloat about their stock market gains. Because the world is now entering a phase not seen for hundreds or maybe 2,000 years. Yes, stocks could meltup one final time before the total collapse but if they do, that will most likely be accompanied by a very weak dollar.

Don't Measure Your Wealth In Worthless Fiat Currencies: To measure your assets in a fiat currency, be it dollars, euros or pounds, is absolute madness. Why do you measure your wealth in something that in real terms has declined by 98% since 1971 and 85% since 2000. It might feel good for a moment but when you realise that these gains are just paper profits that are not only meaningless but will evaporate totally in the next few years as stocks and paper money implode together.

And don’t for a second believe that the assets you own whether they are stocks, bonds or property are really worth the thousands or millions that they are valued at in fake money. The imminent wealth destruction will soon reveal to investors that their assets are only worth a fraction of the imaginary value they have today.

Central banks will not save the world, they can’t. Because how can you solve a debt problem with more worthless debt or how can you create wealth by issuing more debt. That Ponzi scheme is now finished for a very long time. Physical gold (and silver) will in the next few years reveal the total delusion that the financial system has rested on. People who are not protected should take heed."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

"You Cannot Kill Me Here..."

"You cannot kill me here. Bring your soldiers, your death, your disease, your collapsed economy because it doesn't matter, I have nothing left to lose and you cannot kill me here. Bring the tears of orphans and the wails of a mother's loss, bring your Jesus on a cross, bring your hate and bitterness and long working hours, bring your empty wallets and love long since gone but you cannot kill me here. Bring your sneers, your snide remarks and friendships never felt, your letters never sent, your kisses never kissed, cigarettes smoked to the bone and cancer killing fears but you cannot kill me here. For I may fall and I may fail but I will stand again each time and you will find no satisfaction. Because you cannot kill me here."

- Iain S. Thomas

The Poet: Margaret Atwood, “The Moment”

“The Moment”

“The moment when, after many years

of hard work and a long voyage

you stand in the centre of your room,

house, half-acre, square mile, island, country,

knowing at last how you got there,

and say, I own this,

is the same moment when the trees unloose

their soft arms from around you,

the birds take back their language,

the cliffs fissure and collapse,

the air moves back from you like a wave

and you can’t breathe.

No, they whisper. You own nothing.

You were a visitor, time after time

climbing the hill, planting the flag, proclaiming.

We never belonged to you.

You never found us.

It was always the other way round.”

- Margaret Atwood,

“Morning in the Burned House”

The Daily "Near You?"

Gisborne, New Zealand. Thanks for stopping by!

"Never, Ever Forget..."

"Never, ever forget that nothing in this life is free. Life demands payment in some form for your "right" to express yourself, to condemn and abuse the evil surrounding us. Expect to pay... it will come for you, they will come for you, regardless. Knowing that, give them Hell itself every chance you can. Expect no mercy, and give none. That's how life works. Be ready to pay for what you do, or be a coward, pretend you don't see, don't know, and cry bitter tears over how terrible things are, over how you let them become."

- Ernest Hemingway, "For Whom the Bell Tolls "

"If the Debt Ceiling Isn't Raised It Will Cause a Catastrophe - The Sky is Falling"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, PM 9/29/21:

"If the Debt Ceiling Isn't Raised It Will 

Cause a Catastrophe - The Sky is Falling"

"The President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and the Secretary of the Treasury spoke to Congress today. If we do not raise the debt ceiling they say it will be absolutely catastrophic to our economy and our entire country on the world stage. Today I am at the beautiful Waldorf Astoria in Laguna Niguel California."

"Heading for a Cliff – Whee!"

"Heading for a Cliff – Whee!"

by Bill Bonner

"Politics is war by other means."

– Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "Here’s the latest scary headline from CNN on the debt ceiling: “The United States is heading for a cliff – and taking the world with it.” OMG! Why don’t they do something? Who’s standing in the way? If only things could be reduced to childish simplicity – good vs. bad… vaxx vs. anti-vaxx… The Ravens vs. the Steelers… and all we had to do was fight the good fight – and win.

But the good fight is merely idle entertainment for the masses… a diversionary tactic… while the elite pick their pockets. At least, that is our hypothesis here at the Diary. Remember the “Cold War”? We were good; the Soviet Union was bad. We had to spend billions of dollars… and risk nuclear war… to defeat the bad guys. And in the end… the bad guys just walked off the field; no help from us was needed.

And then, there was the War on Terror. We were good; the terrorists were bad. And here we are, $8 trillion later… What do we have to show for it? Or the War on Poverty. We were good; poverty was bad. $25 trillion later… What’s changed? Will the anti-racism/diversity battle turn out any better? How about the “pivot” to face China? The Green Agenda? The War on COVID-19?

This Is Politics: We only bring it up to highlight the perverse and fruitless world of politics. It was Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz who remarked that war is just “an extension of politics by other means.” Here at the Diary, we see politics, like war, as just a way to force others to do what you want.

Yesterday, we saw that there are many who insist that others take the jab – and they’re ready to fire them from their jobs if they don’t. Why? Because it’s an emergency! The Washington Post has the latest: "New York governor declares emergency amid staffing shortage crisis prompted by vaccine resisters. Tens of thousands of health-care workers in New York are likely to have refused a coronavirus vaccine before a state requirement went into effect on Monday, serving as a preview of resistance that the Biden administration’s vaccine requirements will face on a bigger scale in coming weeks."

Surely healthcare workers are capable of making their own healthcare decisions. But this is not about health. This is politics. And today, we look at another tawdry, pointless, political “emergency”: the Debt Ceiling.

More Foolishness: Democrats claim Republicans should be helping to raise the ceiling… since they are responsible for so much of the debt. They’re right about that last part. The Trump Team added more to the debt than any previous administration – an extra $8 trillion.

But the Republicans say that if they go along with the debt increase, the door will be open for even more foolishness on the part of the Dems – including $3.5 trillion in “human infrastructure,” whatever that is… and $1 trillion for the old-fashioned cement and steel boondoggles. They are probably right about that, too. One report suggested the $3.5 trillion tab was a kind of bait-and-switch. In the fine print are provisions that will balloon the bill to $5.5 trillion over the next decade.

Autopilot Government: Meanwhile, the press warns that a failure to raise the ceiling would be a terrible thing. Here’s “political historian” Heather Cox Richardson on why the Republicans are the bad guys: "The Republicans are taking the country hostage to undercut the Democrats. If Congress does not fund the government by Thursday, the government will shut down. And if the country goes into default sometime in mid-October, the results will be catastrophic."

Really? How so? What would actually change? Reuters is on the case: Much of government would continue on autopilot, including mailing Social Security pension checks and paying hospital bills for the elderly. Soldiers can still fight wars, but many civilians in the Department of Defense will be furloughed.

Remember, this is the federal government we are talking about. State and local governments are responsible for police, schools, and other useful activities. But the feds? Suppose the U.S. Army stopped droning? Suppose the Navy left its vessels in port? Suppose the legislators stopped legislating… regulators stopped regulating… and the Bureau of Labor Statistics suddenly stopped fudging the figures? Suppose they only spent what they could raise by honest taxation… so they didn’t have to increase the debt ceiling?

The feds will collect $3.8 trillion in tax receipts this fiscal year, about the same amount as they spent in 2014. Would that be so horrible? Was 2014 so bad? But that’s not going to happen, is it? Tune in tomorrow…"

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"How It Really Is"

 

"The Market Crash Nobody Thinks Is Possible Is Coming"

"The Market Crash Nobody Thinks Is Possible Is Coming"

by Charles Hugh Smith

"The ideal setup for a crash is a consensus that a crash is impossible - in other words, just like the present: sure, there are carefully measured murmurings about a "correction" but nobody with anything to lose in the way of public credibility is calling for an honest-to-goodness crash, a real crash, not a wimpy, limp-wristed dip that will immediately be bought.

What I'm calling for is a rip your face off, weeping bitter tears over the grave of the speculative wealth that you thought was forever crash. All those buying the dip because the Fed will never let the market go down will be crushed like scurrying cockroaches and all those trying to rotate into the next hot sector or asset class will also be crushed like scurrying cockroaches because when the Everything Bubble pops, well, everything pops. There is no shelter in a risk-off cascade.

The crash is coming as a result of multiple mutually reinforcing dynamics, the first being that no "serious person" believes a crash is possible, much less imminent. In no particular order, here are a raft of other causally consequential triggers of a cascading market crash:

1. As I noted in my call for the top, "Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble?" (September 6, 2021), there is no history to support the widespread confidence that the extremes of over-valuation, leverage, euphoria and speculation last forever, or even much longer than the lifespan of a cockroach. We're well past that benchmark into unprecedented insanity. So what happens next: squish.

Just for the record, the Dow topped out on August 13, the S&P 500 topped out on September 2 and the Nasdaq topped out the day after my call, September 7. (Close enough for gummit work...)

2. The credibility of the Federal Reserve is in the dumpster, which just caught fire. As I explained in "The Fed Is Fatally Corrupt - And So Is the Rest of America's Status Quo" (September 10, 2021), the Fed is corrupt on multiple levels - thoroughly, completely corrupt, and so are all its minions, proxies, apparatchiks, toadies, apologists and lackeys.

This is finally leaking through the Fed corruption containment vessel as even the lackeys in the billionaire-owned corporate media are now fearful of losing whatever tattered shreds of credibility they still possess by refusing to acknowledge Fed corruption, over-reach and hubris. And so at long last, the Fed no longer walks on water. The Fed's fraudulent travesty of a mockery of a sham scam has finally breached the three-foor thick containment walls and the putrid stench of Fed corruption can no longer be bottled up.

Like any good kleptocratic Politburo, the Fed cashiered the two most indefensible scapegoats to divert attention from the equally corrupt incumbents presiding over the collapse of Fed credibility. Don't be surprised if the scapegoats are airbrushed out of official photos, per officially approved propaganda.

3. As I detailed in "The U.S. Economy In a Nutshell: When Critical Parts Are On "Indefinite Back Order," the Machine Grinds to a Halt" and "Sorry, Fed, Inflation is Already Embedded", the fuel of the inflation rocket has just ignited and the clueless, corrupt Fed is watching the boost phase in abject, humiliating confusion, as the Fed is now completely powerless, having blown the opportunity to get ahead of the curve by reducing their making billionaires richer "stimulus" a year ago.

Inflation is not just embedded, it's global. Natural gas prices could triple in entire regions without even breathing hard, and the costs of other essentials could just as easily triple without breaking a sweat. Inflation crushes risk-on speculative markets like, well, scurrying cockroaches. Squish.

4. The Fed has lost control of yields. We all know that liars reveal their dishonesty via micro-signals, and with this is mind, slow down the video of Fed Politburo speakers, starting with Chairperson Powell. Wealth inequality soaring? It's not our doing! etc. Oops, the cat is out of the bag: the Fed has lost control of yields. Trust in the Fed's god-like powers is wavering, as punters and players realize the Fed's shuck-and-jive has finally lost its power to wow the greedy and the credulous. Rising yields crush risk-on speculative markets like, well, scurrying cockroaches. Squish.

5. China is not "saving the world" this time. As I explained in "What's Really Going On in China" (September 23, 2021), China has other fish to fry and it isn't bailing out global markets as it did in previous bubble pops. Squish.

6. The rising US dollar is Kryptonite to speculative markets, emerging market debt and risk-on euphoria. Sorry about that, but you know what happens next: Squish.

7. The retail bagholders are now all-in. As I noted in "Please Don't Pop Our Precious Bubble!" (September 8, 2021), the retail punters have finally gone all-in on the "this bubble will never pop" Everything Bubble. As I observed in August, "The Smart Money Has Already Sold" (August 18, 2021) as the retail bagholders have poured more cash into the Everything Bubble than they did in the past decade or two. This is of course the most reliable signal that a bubble is about to pop. Sorry about that: squish.

8. The buy the dip crowd has been so well-trained that they will provide the necessary buying to keep the cascade from gathering too much momentum. A stairstep down that sucks in buy the dip buyers is ideal for those profiting from the decline. First up: a rally to close the quarter positively to make it appear that every money manager beat the index funds. And so on. But the net result is still: squish. Consequences can be put off for quite some time, but the rot beneath the machinations only amplifies the eventual collapse.

The banquet of consequences is being served, and risk-off crashes are, like revenge, best served cold."

- https://www.oftwominds.com/

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/29/21: "JP Morgan CEO Warns Of Potentially 'Catastrophic' Event"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/29/21:

"JP Morgan CEO Warns Of Potentially 'Catastrophic' Event"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Musical Interlude: Peter Gabriel (Feat. Kate Bush), "Don't Give Up"

Peter Gabriel (Feat. Kate Bush), "Don't Give Up"

Must Watch! “Stock Market Bubble Bigger Than 1929; No Money, No Consumer Confidence; Cost Of Everything Soars”

Jeremiah Babe, PM 9/28/21:

“Stock Market Bubble Bigger Than 1929; 

No Money, No Consumer Confidence; Cost Of Everything Soars”

Absolute catastrophe is so close, folks...

Brace yourselves.

"Panic And Chaos Sweep Across In China As Power Shortage Leaves Millions In The Dark"

Full screen recommended.

"Panic And Chaos Sweep Across In China As

 Power Shortage Leaves Millions In The Dark"

by Epic Economist

"Widespread panic is sweeping across China due to a sudden power crisis that is leaving millions of homes in the dark and forcing several industries to completely halt production as strict rationing mandates have started to be put in place. China's energy crisis is threatening to trigger an economic and financial meltdown like no other. The risk of generalized supply chain disruptions is making economists extremely alarmed with the prospects of yet another global economic slowdown. Even worse, the crisis is likely to incite social instability all across the nation as residents grow increasingly more frustrated with the rigid mandates and prolonged blackouts.

Over the past month, at least 16 out of 31 provincial jurisdictions have enacted out electricity-rationing measures, alarming ​the population and plunging the nation’s industrial sector into chaos. “The situation worsened over the past weekend,” Lu Ting, chief economist at Nomura, wrote in a recent note, highlighting that large-scale outages are not limited to factories.

Residents in both northern and southern provinces have been facing extensive blackouts for weeks, but since the beginning of this week, the situation has escalated to a whole new level. Traffic lights are being turned off and causing unprecedented chaos on roads and cities. Local authorities are urging residents to only use natural light in their homes and limit the usage of all electronics. And many angry and confused residents are reporting their complaints on social media, exposing that major electricity cuts have come during peak hours without any warning.

The country is currently facing power issues on two fronts. The main reasons for electricity shortages in the south of China are different from what's causing them in the north. While the south is running low on hydropower, the north is struggling with a massive spike in coal and gas prices.

According to the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese government, the power cuts are forcing companies to raise prices of goods for Chinese consumers and resulting in rampant inflation. "This will likely bring unnecessary disorder to the economy and society," it said.In Guangdong, the provincial energy administration warned that "all walks of society" must conserve energy to prevent further widespread outages. Broad cuts to factories have already been implemented, but now office workers are required to use the stairs, and shopping malls are closing hours earlier than usual.

Chinese consumers, for their part, aren't happy with the steep rise in energy prices and dwindling energy supplies. Local reports describe that the population is getting angrier and angrier as local authorities force them to ration electricity usage. Even though official data released by the government does not mention explicit numbers, it is estimated that thousands of blackouts caused a lot of trouble across several provinces last week. In the northeastern city of Liaoyang, "twenty-three people were hospitalized with carbon monoxide poisoning after ventilation in a metal-casting factory was cut after a power outage," according to the state media. Millions of homes have been left in the dark for 5 to 10 hours in northern China over the past weekend, and millions more are likely to face a similar fate in the coming days.

The government is stressing that people should ration power at all costs to “avoid the collapse of the entire grid”. One water company said in a statement released on social media on Sunday that “irregular, unplanned and unannounced power cuts or limits will last until March 2022, and power and water outages will become the norm to meet the requirements of the national grid and the mandates set by local authorities". The energy crisis will likely cut China’s growth rate by 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points in the third and fourth quarters, CICC economists revealed in a report. “The power-supply shock in the world’s second-biggest economy and the biggest manufacturer will ripple through and impact global markets,” Nomura's Li Ting added.

Given that companies all across the board are being forced to shut down or reduce activity, this could result in a catastrophic supply chain crisis in the coming weeks and months. While the world is watching the unfolding of the Evergrande crisis, the effects of China's energy crisis on the manufacturing sector may be overlooked, but the end result could be the worsening of the shortage of everything - from textiles to electronics components. And that could cause a financial and economic meltdown that would push the world's economy to the edge of a cliff very rapidly.

Global events are accelerating at record speed. And we all should pay very close attention to what happens next. In the meantime, try to get ready while you can, because when the flow of goods between Asia and the U.S. is finally cut, we will see the rapid collapse of our nation."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal: Show Us Your Vax Papers"

Full screen recommended.

Gerald Celente, PM 9/28/21: 

VERY Strong Language Alert!

"Trends Journal: Show Us Your Vax Papers"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com/

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy, "Shadows In The Wood"

Gnomusy, "Shadows In The Wood"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Stars are sometimes born in the midst of chaos. About 3 million years ago in the nearby galaxy M33, a large cloud of gas spawned dense internal knots which gravitationally collapsed to form stars. NGC 604 was so large, however, it could form enough stars to make a globular cluster.

Many young stars from this cloud are visible in the above image from the Hubble Space Telescope, along with what is left of the initial gas cloud. Some stars were so massive they have already evolved and exploded in a supernova. The brightest stars that are left emit light so energetic that they create one of the largest clouds of ionized hydrogen gas known, comparable to the Tarantula Nebula in our Milky Way's close neighbor, the Large Magellanic Cloud.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap121211.html

Chet Raymo, “Tyger, Tyger Burning Bright…”

“Tyger, Tyger Burning Bright…”

by Chet Raymo

“Divinity is not playful. The universe was not made in jest but in solemn incomprehensible earnest. By a power that is unfathomably secret, and holy, and fleet.” You may recall these words from Annie Dillard’s “Pilgrim at Tinker Creek.” There is nothing intrinsically cheerful about the world, she says. To live is to die; it’s all part of the bargain. Stars destroy themselves to make the atoms of our bodies. Every creature lives to eat and be eaten. And into this incomprehensible, unfathomable, apparently stochastic melee stumbles… You and I.

With qualities that we have - so far - seen nowhere else. Hope. Humor. A sense of justice. A sense of beauty. Gratitude. But also: Anger. Hurt. Despair. Strangers in a strange land.

Galaxies by the billions turn like St. Catherine Wheels, throwing off sparks of exploding stars. Atoms eddy and flow, blowing hot and cold, groping and promiscuous. A wind of neutrinos gusts through our bodies, Energy billows and swells. A myriad of microorganisms nibble at our flesh.

We have a sense that something purposeful is going on, something that involves us. Something secret, holy and fleet. But we haven’t a clue what it is. We make up stories. Stories in which we are the point of it all. We tell the stories over and over. To our children. To ourselves. And the stories fill up the space of our ignorance.

Until they don’t. And then the great yawning spaces open again. And time clangs down on our heads like a pummeling rain, like the collapsing ceiling of the sky. Dazed, stunned, we stagger like giddy topers towards our own swift dissolution. Inexplicably praising. Admiring. Wondering. Giving thanks.”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

○

“The Tyger”

“Tyger! Tyger! burning bright

In the forests of the night,

What immortal hand or eye

Could frame thy fearful symmetry?

In what distant deeps or skies

Burnt the fire of thine eyes?

On what wings dare he aspire?

What the hand dare sieze the fire?

And what shoulder, and what art.

Could twist the sinews of thy heart?

And when thy heart began to beat,

What dread hand? and what dread feet?

What the hammer? what the chain?

In what furnace was thy brain?

What the anvil? what dread grasp

Dare its deadly terrors clasp?

When the stars threw down their spears,

And watered heaven with their tears,

Did he smile his work to see?

Did he who made the Lamb make thee?

Tyger! Tyger! burning bright

In the forests of the night,

What immortal hand or eye

Dare frame thy fearful symmetry?”

- William Blake

"Happily Men Don't Realize..."

"Happily men don't realize how stupid they are, or half the world would commit suicide. Knowledge is a will-of-the-wisp, fluttering ever out of the traveller's reach; and a weary journey must be endured before it is even seen. It is only when a man knows a good deal that he discovers how unfathomable is his ignorance. The man who knows nothing is satisfied that there is nothing to know, consequently that he knows everything; and you may more easily persuade him that the moon is made of green cheese than that he is not omniscient."

- W. Somerset Maugham

○

“It takes considerable knowledge just to

realize the extent of your own ignorance.”

- Thomas Sowell

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/28/21: "Former FED. Chairwoman J. Yellen Warns Of Calamity, Financial Crisis, Meltdown"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/28/21:

"Former FED. Chairwoman J. Yellen Warns 

Of Calamity, Financial Crisis, Meltdown"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"Our Gloomy Economy Will Never be the Same Again"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, PM 9/28/21:

"Our Gloomy Economy Will Never be the Same Again"

"The Economist have spoken. They are predicting that our economy is slowing down. This is going to be a horrible third-quarter for our country. It’s only going to get worse as we get into the end of the year."