THU FEB 18, AT 4:57 AM:
So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, February 18, 2021
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
"A Catastrophic Stock Market Crash Is One Trigger Event Away From Happening"
Full screen recommended.
"A Catastrophic Stock Market Crash Is
One Trigger Event Away From Happening"
by Epic Economist
"You may believe it or not, but it is an undisputed truth amongst experts and supported by real data that the stock market is about to experience a dramatic crash. At the current stage, even Wall Street pros are fearing that the stock market has shot too high. U.S. stocks have been on a nonstop bullish run for almost a year, however, the record-high valuations have entirely lost touch with our economic reality. Despite being fueled by the constant massive liquidity injections provided by the Federal Reserve, the latest GameStop frenzy has outlined how the stock price bubble is completely unsustainable, and today, we're going to present several indicators that show the market has entered a dangerous bubble territory, and the only thing missing to set off a crash is one trigger event.
Since March 2020, U.S. stock markets have been on a crazy run that sent the market up by nearly 70 percent, while some stocks soared in triple digits. The frenzy has mainly been backed up by central banks' and Congress' stimulus packages, but the unprecedented amount of money being pumped into stocks has created such a sharp unbalance that no amount of stimulus will ever be able to fix it.
In the meantime, authorities will keep enacting more and more packages while our economy rebounds from the several shockwaves triggered by the health crisis. This is why investors continue to take bullish positions since they anticipate that more free money will soon arrive and keep the markets nice and heated. The latest market mania was seen during the GameStop run, and all the fervor that was sparked amongst a new army of retail investors has left Wall Street openly debating whether the market entered a dangerous bubble territory, which might have gotten too incredibly inflated and would likely end up in a major burst.
In essence, a bubble is formed when prices for something run a lot higher than they should rationally be, and we can say this is happening for numerous leading stocks right now. Yale professor and Nobel-winning economist, Robert Shiller, pointed out that "a bubble occurs when people think that the market is going to go up but worry that it may drop. That is where we are"..
The Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is signaling that we're at nosebleed territory. The average Shiller P/E ratio over the past 150 years was 16.78, but as of February 11, it closed at 35.66. The ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, and now it is at its highest level since the dot-com bubble almost two decades ago. According to several analysts, the stock market was already on the path for a secular correction way before the health crisis started, and ever since then, as the recent wild GameStop run has largely inflated several stock bubbles, that process might have been significantly accelerated.
When stock bubbles expand too much, the markets become highly vulnerable to investors' sentiment, but emotions are a kettle that could explode at any time. In the long run, what effectively drives equity valuations higher is the growth of operating earnings, but in the short-term, investors' behavior tends to point to where the markets will go. That's exactly what we have all been watching during the past few weeks, as Reddit retail investors have been sending garbage stocks to sky-highs. With that in mind, it wouldn't take much for emotion-driven momentum traders to send the stock market into a downward spiral.
No stock market crash discussion would be complete without mentioning the role the health crisis could still play. Keeping in mind that less than 30 percent of the population affirmed to be confident about the effectiveness of the vaccine, it seems that the health crisis may linger for longer than what was previously forecasted, and that also means that our economy will continue to struggle for much longer.
Lastly, another evidence can be seen in the remarkable decline in buybacks, which have played a notable role in recent years in helping to drive earnings growth. But without this buyback bump, earnings growth could be dramatically slower than expected in 2021 and end up fatally pressuring equities. No matter where we look, we can find several points of exposure inside the markets. At this stage, if only one of these determinants is pushed in the wrong direction that could trigger an epic explosion of the stock price bubble, and crash the markets up to 89 percent, so investors better beware."
"A Look to the Heavens"
“The constellation of Orion holds much more than three stars in a row. A deep exposure shows everything from dark nebula to star clusters, all embedded in an extended patch of gaseous wisps in the greater Orion Molecular Cloud Complex. The brightest three stars on the far left are indeed the famous three stars that make up the belt of Orion. Just below Alnitak, the lowest of the three belt stars, is the Flame Nebula, glowing with excited hydrogen gas and immersed in filaments of dark brown dust.
Below the frame center and just to the right of Alnitak lies the Horsehead Nebula, a dark indentation of dense dust that has perhaps the most recognized nebular shapes on the sky. On the upper right lies M42, the Orion Nebula, an energetic caldron of tumultuous gas, visible to the unaided eye, that is giving birth to a new open cluster of stars. Immediately to the left of M42 is a prominent bluish reflection nebula sometimes called the Running Man that houses many bright blue stars. The above image, a digitally stitched composite taken over several nights, covers an area with objects that are roughly 1,500 light years away and spans about 75 light years.”
"You Take This Thing..."
"That life. This life. It looks as if you can have both. I mean, they're both right there, one on top of the other, and it looks as if they'll blend. But they never will. So, you take this thing. You take this thing you want, and you put it in a box and you close the lid. You can let your fingers trace the cracks, the places where the light gets in, the dark gets out, but the lid stays on. You don't look inside. You don't look at this thing you want so much, because you Can. Not. Have. It. So there's this box, you know, with the thing inside, and you could throw it away or shoot it into space; you could set it on fire and watch it burn to ashes, but really, none of that would make a difference, because you cannot destroy what you want. It only makes you want it more. So. You take this thing you want and you put it in a box and you close the lid. And you hold the box close to your heart, which is where it wants to go, and you pretend it doesn't kill you every time you feel yourself breathe."
- Megan Hart
Chet Raymo, “Living In The Little World”
“Living In The Little World”
by Chet Raymo
"My wisdom is simple," begins Gustav Adolph Ekdahl, at the final celebratory family gathering of Ingmar Bergman's crowning epic “Fanny and Alexander.” I saw the movie in the early 1980s when it had its U.S. theater release. Now I have just watched the five-hour-long original version made for Swedish television. Whew!
But back to that speech by the gaily philandering Gustav, now the patriarch of the Ekdahl clan and uncle to Fanny and Alexander. The family has gathered for the double christening of Fanny and Alexander's new half-sister and Gustav's child by his mistress Maj. A dark chapter of family history has come to an end, involving a clash between two world views, one - the Ekdahl's - focussed on the pleasures of the here and now, and the other - that of Lutheran Bishop Edvard Vergerus, Fanny and Alexander's stepfather - a stern and joyless anticipation of the hereafter. It is not the habit of Ekdahls to concern themselves with matters of grand consequence, Gustav tells the assembled guests. "We must live in the little world. We will be content with that and cultivate it and make the best of it."
The little world. I love that phrase. This world, here, now. This world of family and friends and newborn infants and trees and flowers and rainstorms and- oh yes, cognac and stolen kisses and tumbles in the hay. The Ekdahl's are a theatrical family; we will leave it to the actors and actresses to give us our supernatural shivers, says Gustav. "So it shall be," he says. "Let us be kind, and generous, affectionate and good. It is necessary and not at all shameful to take pleasure in the little world."
The Poet: Rainer Maria Rilke, "I Want A Lot"
"I Want A Lot"
"You see, I want a lot.
Perhaps I want everything:
the darkness that comes with every infinite fall
and the shivering blaze of every step up.
So many live on and want nothing
and are raised to the rank of prince
by the slippery ease of their light judgments.
But what you love to see are faces
that so work and feel thirst...
You have not grown old, and it is not too late
to dive into your increasing depths
where life calmly gives out its own secret."
- Rainer Maria Rilke
Paulo Coelho, "Killing Our Dreams"
"Killing Our Dreams"
by Paulo Coelho
"The first symptom of the process of our killing our dreams is the lack of time. The busiest people I have known in my life always have time enough to do everything. Those who do nothing are always tired and pay no attention to the little amount of work they are required to do. They complain constantly that the day is too short. The truth is, they are afraid to fight the Good Fight.
The second symptom of the death of our dreams lies in our certainties. Because we don’t want to see life as a grand adventure, we begin to think of ourselves as wise and fair and correct in asking so little of life. We look beyond the walls of our day-to-day existence, and we hear the sound of lances breaking, we smell the dust and the sweat, and we see the great defeats and the fire in the eyes of the warriors. But we never see the delight, the immense delight in the hearts of those who are engaged in the battle. For them, neither victory nor defeat is important; what’s important is only that they are fighting the Good Fight.
And, finally, the third symptom of the passing of our dreams is peace. Life becomes a Sunday afternoon; we ask for nothing grand, and we cease to demand anything more than we are willing to give. In that state, we think of ourselves as being mature; we put aside the fantasies of our youth, and we seek personal and professional achievement. We are surprised when people our age say that they still want this or that out of life. But really, deep in our hearts, we know that what has happened is that we have renounced the battle for our dreams – we have refused to fight the Good Fight.
When we renounce our dreams and find peace, we go through a short period of tranquility. But the dead dreams begin to rot within us and to infect our entire being. We become cruel to those around us, and then we begin to direct this cruelty against ourselves. That’s when illnesses and psychoses arise. What we sought to avoid in combat – disappointment and defeat – come upon us because of our cowardice. And one day, the dead, spoiled dreams make it difficult to breathe, and we actually seek death. It’s death that frees us from our certainties, from our work, and from that terrible peace of our Sunday afternoons."
"I Would Rather Have..."
"When a bull is being lead to the slaughter, it still hopes to break loose and trample its butchers. Other bulls have not been able to pass on the knowledge that this never happens and that from the slaughterhouse there is no way back to the herd. But in human society there is a continuous exchange of experience. I have never heard of a man who broke away and fled while being led to his execution. It is even thought to be a special form of courage if a man about to be executed refuses to be blindfolded and dies with his eyes open. But I would rather have the bull with his blind rage, the stubborn beast who doesn't weigh his chances of survival with the prudent dull-wittedness of man, and doesn't know the despicable feeling of despair."
- Nadezhda Mandelstam
The Universe
“Believe me, I know all about it. I know the stress. I know the frustration. I know the temptations of time and space. We worked this out ahead of time. They're part of the plan. We knew this stuff might happen. Actually, you insisted they be triggered whenever you were ready to begin thinking thoughts you've never though before. New thinking is always the answer.”
“Good on you,”
The Universe
“Thoughts become things... choose the good ones!”
Gregory Mannarino, "WHAT THE ACTUAL FU*K! Get Paid To Be Infected. What You Are Seeing Is REAL"
Gregory Mannarino,
"WHAT THE ACTUAL FU*K! Get Paid To Be Infected.
What You Are Seeing Is REAL"
"The Big Girl Wakes Up"
"The Big Girl Wakes Up"
by Bill Bonner
RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Napoleon called her a “sleeping giant.” But now, the big girl is wide awake. She’s had Covid… and shook it off. Now, she’s back at work… with big plans. Here’s the latest from Politico: "China was the EU’s main trade partner in 2020, taking the top spot occupied until last year by the United States.
In 2020, exports of EU goods to China increased by 2.2 percent and imports went up 5.6 percent, while EU trade with the rest of the world dramatically dropped (down 9.4 percent in terms of exports, and down 11.6 percent in terms of imports compared with 2019). The pandemic severely hit transatlantic trade, with exports of European goods to the U.S. falling by 8.2 percent year-on-year. Imports fell 13.2 percent.
As a result, the U.S. is no longer the bloc’s top commercial partner and has been replaced by China. EU exports to China in 2020 amounted to €202.5 billion while imports reached €383.5 billion."
And here’s more from the Business Times. For perspective, Donald Trump’s trade wars were supposed to reduce America’s trade deficit – especially with China. Here’s what happened: "US annual trade gap grows to biggest since financial crisis." "The US last year posted its biggest annual trade deficit since 2008 as the global health crisis depressed export markets for American companies. The gap in trade of goods and services widened to US$678.7 billion in 2020 from US$576.9 billion in 2019, according to Commerce Department data. […] China regained the top spot among US trade partners for goods after finishing behind Mexico and Canada in 2019."
Us Versus Them: China is finding favor with investors, too. Here’s the lowdown from CNN: "Foreign companies are turning their backs on the United States, taking advantage of China’s booming economy and superior management of the Covid-19 pandemic. Direct investment in the US by foreign companies plummeted 49% to $134 billion last year, according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. By contrast, foreign direct investment in China grew by 4% to $163 billion in 2020. 2020 marked the first year in history that foreign direct investment in China overtook that of the US, according to the UN. China is now the world’s largest recipient of foreign companies’ investments."
Some people will view these facts with alarm. They think we’re in an “Us versus Them” competition with the Chinese. If they win, that must mean we lose, right? But does it really work that way? If Chinese engineers invent a better light bulb... won’t our days be brighter, too? If they get richer and buy more of our Netflix features… won’t we be better off, too?
If China’s growth brings dangers, it brings opportunities, too. Chinese billionaires may buy our houses… our malls… and our stocks. They may hire our children as chauffeurs and houseboys… and our ex-military to help them suppress dissenters. And who knows, maybe smooth-talking Americans will be able to hook up with rich Chinese lovers… like a down-at-heel English aristocrat hoping for an American heiress to save his pile.
Useful Theme: The “Yellow Peril” is a useful theme. The politicians, warmongers, fixers, media, lobbyists, think tanks – all love it. It’s another big threat they can protect us from. And it is a good distraction (along with many others) because it leaves the Elite Establishment large, in charge… and in the money. But as far as we can tell, the Chinese are not about to invade San Francisco. Or if they do… it will probably be as part of a UN “peacekeeping” mission, trying to keep Americans from killing each other.
Age-Old Story: So what will happen in China? Is the country becoming richer and more powerful? Or will central planning and debt soon cause it to blow itself up? We don’t know. The Chinese book is a mystery to us… ancient and unfathomable… largely off limits to western eyes.
The U.S. book, on the other hand, is tattered and worn. It’s an old story with an old plot. Oft-repeated, for amusement… and moral instruction… it is a perennial favorite. Boy meets girl. Boy spends too much money trying to impress girl. Boy counterfeits money to try to cover his debts. Girl goes off with someone who hasn’t made a fool of himself by trying to tell everyone else what to do… someone who is still solvent. A Chinese guy? Maybe.
Over the last four years, the U.S. has added $3 trillion in new money (central bank holdings). The Peoples’ Bank of China, by contrast, has added almost nothing.
Eastward Drift: Here’s how CNN summarized it: "China wants to lead the global recovery from the pandemic and become more influential on the world stage than ever before. It might just have the momentum – and the confidence – to pull that plan off. “China emerged from the Covid-19 shock earlier than the rest of the world and authorities are already planning for the long term,” wrote Françoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Euler Hermes, in a report titled, “The world is moving East, fast.”
The world can’t really move east. It is a ball. Half moves east. The other half moves west. But the China story is one for the history books. It has risen from one of the most backward nations on the planet to one of the most powerful and modern – in a single generation. And what next? How does the story end? Oh, Dear Reader, you can’t be serious. You’re asking us? Again, we will have to turn the pages, one at a time, along with everyone else. But the U.S. story? We think we can skip ahead. Tune in tomorrow..."
"A Lot Of People..."
"When science discovers the center of the universe
a lot of people will be disappointed to find they are not."
- Bernard Baily
"Economic Market Snapshot AM 2/17/21"
"Economic Market Snapshot AM 2/17/21"
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"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
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"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates
CNN Market Data:
CNN Fear And Greed Index:
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A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Feb 15th to 17th, Updated Daily
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Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
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Daily Job Cuts
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And now, the End Game...
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Oh yeah...
“Are You Sane?”
“Are You Sane?”
by Charles Hugh Smith
“A sane person to an insane society must appear insane.”
– Kurt Vonnegut, “Welcome to the Monkey House”
“Madness has engulfed the entire world, with a concentration of power in the hands of a few psychopathic financial elite wielding an inordinate and dangerous expanse of power over the lives of the common man. They are a modern day version of Al Capone, except their weapons of choice aren’t machine guns, but a printing press, peddling debt, creating derivatives of mass destruction, and peddling heaping doses of disinformation. The contemporary criminal class wears Hermes suits, Rolex watches and diamond studded pinky rings, drops $500 to dine at Masa in NYC, travels by chauffeured limo, lives in $10 million NYC penthouse suites, occupies luxurious corner offices in hundred story glass towers, and spends weekends hobnobbing with the other financial elite at their villas in the Hamptons. They have nothing but utter contempt for the lowly peasants who depend upon a weekly paycheck to make ends meet. Why work when you can steal $1 or $2 billion from farmers with no consequences?
The willfully ignorant masses are kept at bay by the selling them a false dichotomy of Republicans versus Democrats, conservatives versus liberals, and capitalism versus socialism. The ruling class distracts the public with fake wars on poverty, drugs and terror, while using these storylines to further enrich themselves and keep the public alarmed and frightened. We’ve been “fighting” the wars on poverty and drugs for over four decades and poverty is at record levels, while drugs are easier to obtain than candy in a candy store. The war on terror is nothing more than a corporate arms dealer welfare plan. The end of the Cold War put a real crimp in the bottom lines of Lockheed Martin and the rest of the peddlers of death. 9/11 and the subsequent undeclared wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria, with Iran on the horizon, have been a godsend to the bottom lines of the corporations Eisenhower warned about in 1961.
In reality, the politicians are interchangeable and bought off by corporate and special interests. The people are sold a fable, and controlled opposition is the fairy tale. They perpetuate the welfare/warfare state that enriches Wall Street, the military industrial complex, the healthcare service complex, politically connected mega-corporations and the corporate media propaganda complex. The American people are given the illusion of choice by their keepers. The system is rigged. The real decisions are made by unelected secretive men who operate in the shadows and use their wealth to direct the decision making of the politicians, government bureaucrats, and corporate entities that benefit from those decisions. Edward Bernays described a society that existed in the 19th Century, 20th Century, and has now grown to immense proportions in the 21st Century:
“Political campaigns today are all sideshows. A presidential candidate may be ‘drafted’ in response to ‘overwhelming popular demand,’ but it is well known that his name may be decided upon by half a dozen men sitting around a table in a hotel room. The conscious manipulation of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.” – Edward Bernays
The manipulation of the masses has been perfected by the ruling class through decades of corporate mass media messaging the purposeful dumbing down of the populace through government public school education that teaches children how to feel rather than how to think. The conscious manipulation of the masses has been designed to produce obedient non-thinking consumers of corporate products, educated to believe the accumulation of material goods with debt constitutes wealth, to fear whatever the government tells them to fear, and never look up from their iGadgets long enough to actually think for themselves. We are bombarded with Orwellian memes designed to keep us sedated and pliant, as the ruling class pillages the national wealth and expands their power and control over our lives.
Conform; Stay Asleep; Do Not Question Authority; Obey; Consume; Reproduce; Submit; Watch TV; Buy; Follow; Doubt Humanity; No New Ideas; Feel, Don’t Think; Fear; Accumulate; Honor Apathy; Believe Experts; Surrender; Spend; No Independent Thought; Win; Want More; Hate; Succumb To Desire; Yield To Power; Choose Safety Over Liberty; Choose Security Over Freedom
This insane world was created through decades of bad decisions, believing in false prophets, choosing current consumption over sustainable long-term savings based growth, electing corruptible men who promised voters entitlements that were mathematically impossible to deliver, the disintegration of a sense of civic and community obligation and a gradual degradation of the national intelligence and character.
Vonnegut and Huxley’s social commentary reveals a basic truth that societies and human beings have been prone to bouts of madness over the course of decades and centuries. Humans are a weak species, susceptible to the vagaries of greed, lust, gluttony, wrath, sloth, envy and pride. The seven deadly sins are in full bloom today, as the American empire descends through Dante’s inferno of reality TV, celebrity worship, religious zealotry, adulation of wealthy titans, military conquest and worship of false idols.
This is where the interests of those in power and those being ruled have coincided, as a fiat based monetary system allowed unlimited spending to keep the welfare/warfare state growing, enriching the crony capitalists, deepening the power of the state, and providing the masses with foreign made trinkets, baubles, corporate logoed clothing, techno-gadgets, and pimped out financed wheels. The concepts of self-restraint, discipline, saving for a rainy day, prudence, discretion, and deferred gratification are rarely displayed in modern day America. In a case of mass delusion, Americans have convinced themselves to live for today, recklessly ignore their futures, irresponsibly spend money they don’t have on things they don’t need, neglect their civic duty towards future generations, choose ignorance over knowledge, and vote for spineless politicians who promise them entitlements that are mathematically impossible to honor. The public’s foolish attitude towards debt accumulation matches the arrogance of our gutless intellectually dishonest leaders.”
"We All Do What We Can..."
“All sins, of course, deserve to be treated with mercy: we all do what we can, and life is too hard and too cruel for us to condemn anyone for failing in this area. Does anyone know what he himself would do if faced with the worst and how much truth could he bear under such circumstances?”
- Andre Comte-Sponville
Joe South, “Walk A Mile In My Shoes”
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"Slightly Woozier Thoughts on the Impossibility of Justice"
"Slightly Woozier Thoughts on the Impossibility of Justice"
by Fred Reed
"The other day a friend and I were partaking of the mortal remains of quite a number of defenseless grapes, and the subject of law enforce arose. Having spent a number of years as a police reporter, I began thinking of curious and often erroneous ideas that people have of what we regard as a system of justice. Without meaning to bore the reader, I offer the following thoughts and observations.
First, any system will make mistakes. The only way to convict all of the guilty is to convict everybody. The only way to avoid convicting the innocent is not to convict anyone. The more the system leans in one direction, the more it will err in the other.
Second, it is absurd to accept the Enlightenment idea that a criminal, having “paid his debt to society” by a stint in prison, will come out and make a new start as a normal human. The fact is that most crime is committed by career criminals. An armed robber aged twenty-nine invariably will have a rap sheet dating from puberty of thirteen arrests and a couple of convictions for assault, drug offenses, gun offenses, drugs, and so on. He is not going to make a fresh start.
Third, the complacent adage that “it is better to let ten guilty men go free than to convict one innocent man” may apply in cases of shoplifting. It may not be better to let ten Ted Bundys go free than to convict an innocent. Your choice may depend on whether you have a daughter in college.
Fourth, people charged with crimes by urban police departments are almost always guilty. There are two reasons for this. One is that they are usually caught in the act, driving the stolen car, carrying the illegal gun, or having drugs in their possession. The other is that DA’s won’t paper a case unless they are pretty sure of winning either in court or by plea bargain.
Fifth, the US does not have trial by jury but, in over ninety percent of cases, trial by plea bargain. Crime is so rampant in American cities that many times more courts and prosecutors would be needed for jury trials. Plea bargaining is convenient for prosecutors but a very bad system. It makes it easy for overzealous or crooked prosecutors to take advantage of suspects with little or no legal representation. It can, and sometime does, work against what we regard as normal people.
Suppose you are a suburban white man walking through a shaky part of the city without knowing it to be a red-light district, and you get unfairly arrested for solicitation of a prostitute. Your choice is to plead down to public lewdness or some such with a fine of five hundred dollars, or go to trial, lose your marriage, and maybe get three years. Which?
Yes, this can happen. Ages ago in my police-reporter days I walked one evening on Fourteenth Street, then a hooker venue. One of the girls said, “You sportin,’ honey?” Another lady of the evening stepped closer, as if to listen to my answer. I strongly suspected the first to be Cookie Marino, a police plant in the anti-sex trade force. Solicitation was then defined as offering a specific price for a specific act. A guy with no interest could easily kid around (“I want five girls. I’ll give you a thousand dollars each.”) and get arrested. Then what?
Sixth, almost all of the celebrated shootings and brutality by police result from disobeying a cop’s orders. If a minion of the law tells you to stop and put your hands up, do it. You can sue later.
Seventh, drug rehab is a scam. The judge doesn’t want to send the addict to prison, since prisons are overflowing, but doesn’t want to let him go, and look soft on crime, so he sentences him to rehab, which he knows doesn’t work, but it becomes somebody else’s problem.
Eighth, jury trials are largely fraudulent. You are supposed to be tried by a jury of your peers. This was a good idea since it made it difficult for the government to railroad people it didn’t like. In today’s climate of racial hatred, “one’s peers” has to mean of one’s own race. A white jury is not unlikely to acquit a white charged with beating a black (Rodney King) and a black jury is very likely to acquit a black charged with killing a white (OJ Simpson).
Further, in theory the jury is supposed to consider the facts dispassionately and come to a reasoned verdict. Good luck with that. A jury of theoretical physicists might approach this ideal. In jury selection both prosecutors and defense attorney will try to impanel jurors emotionally biased in their favor.
For example, in a rape case the prosecutor will want a jury consisting of man-hating feminists and he will coach the victim to look sweet and defenseless. The defense will want a jury of primitive rural Christians who will think that if she was in that bar, in that neighborhood, with THAT Dress up to her armpits, she damned well deserved what she got. Yes, this is exaggerated, but it is how they think.
Ninth, it is not always clear what the country believes to be the purpose of prison. Is the purpose to punish? Then prison should be harsh. If it isn’t disagreeable, it isn’t punishment. It the purpose to deter? Then it should be godawful as otherwise it will not deter.
Should vengeance be an acceptable purpose? In the case of someone selling marijuana, no—but the psychopath who tortured three girls to death? Your answer to this may depend on whether it was your daughter.
Is the purpose to rehabilitate? Then prison should be pleasant, with libraries, online courses, and training in auto mechanics, carpentry, and bricklaying.
Is the purpose to protect the public? Then the answer is long sentences whether in pleasant circumstance or not. Since the only thing that more or less reliably decreases criminality is age, sentences might read “until middle age.”
Tenth, the current system virtually guarantees recidivism. A black guy with a fourth-grade education goes to jail for fifteen years at age twenty-five. He comes out at age forty with no money, no acquaintances on the outside, and zero employability. What precisely do we expect him to do? Realistically there is no practical answer to this question. He understands armed robbery and dope sales. These are all he understands.
My only answer to all of this is what a friend, a public defender, told me: “Don’t ever - ever - get into the hands of the criminal justice system.”
Finally, it is worth remembering that few actually care about guilt or innocence. Trial attorneys are combative and want to win. An assistant DA does not rise in rank by losing cases. The defense guy, or gal, gains fame and clients by acquitting clients and do so even if they know the perp is guilty."
Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal: 21st Century: China's Century"
Gerald Celente,
"Trends Journal: 21st Century: China's Century"
The inimitable Gerald.. lol
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