Tuesday, January 5, 2021

“The Psychological Mistakes People Make That Lead to Misery”

“The Psychological Mistakes People Make That Lead to Misery”
By Jonathan Rottenberg

“The puzzling reality is that human depression is increasing in an era when environmental conditions are relatively benign. The average citizen in Western society now lives longer, is less likely to starve, and enjoys considerably greater wealth than his sixteenth-century counterpart. Presumably these objective conditions for survival and reproduction would cause depression rates to fall, not rise to nearly one in five citizens. This environment-depression disconnect seems less strange when we appreciate that there are additional human-specific routes into depression. Homo sapiens has the dubious distinction of being a species that can become depressed without a major environmental insult.

There is no scientific consensus about why human depression rates are rising in the industrialized world, but several compelling possibilities exist. Their common thread is our species’ unusual relationship with mood and the doors it opens for unique routes into depression. A chimpanzee is capable of feeling bad, but only a human being can feel bad about feeling bad. Former tennis great Cliff Richey, in his memoir “Acing Depression,” described how he became engulfed by low mood: “One of the horrible things about depression - in addition to the foul, odorous, sick, deathly mood you’re in - is that you’re now spending so much of your time, almost all of it, just trying to fix yourself. You’re consumed by, ‘How can I fix this horrible thing?’”

Humans have a host of unique thoughts and reactions to low mood, many of which are highly cognitive. Only a human can keep a mood diary or write a book about depression. We often think of what’s uniquely human as uniquely better. Surely pride may be a reasonable emotion for the species that harnessed fire and put a man on the moon. It’s easy to see traits such as advanced language, the ability to be self-aware, and participation in a rich shared culture as unalloyed virtues. Yet when it comes to “fixing” mood, all of these special human assets can turn into liabilities, with the unintended consequence of making depression worse.

Sinking Through Thinking: A hallmark human response to low mood is to try to explain it - as we do with moods generally. We use language to construct theories about where painful feelings come from. The basic idea is, “If I understand why I feel bad, I will know how to fix it.” This impulse makes sense. It fits with a main function of low mood, which is to help draw attention to threats and obstacles in unfavorable environments. In a low mood, behavior pauses and the environment is analyzed more carefully.

However, exactly what “analyze more carefully” means depends on which species is doing the analyzing. The schnauzer, Ollie, just separated from his sister, may sit at the window for hours looking for signs of her return. Visual search is the sum total of his environmental analysis. When a human pines for a loved one, say a mother missing her son away at summer camp, the analytical field is far wider. Our outsized language capability draws in thoughts linked to the situation: “That head counselor seemed awfully young.”; “Did I remember to pack sunscreen?”; “I wonder why we haven’t gotten a postcard?” These thoughts may then trigger further mental images - a flash of Tommy drowning, the funeral - as well as feelings - a pang of guilt for ever letting him go to Camp Meadowlark in the first place.

Such reflections on mood have a purpose beyond self-flagellation. The mood system is practical and most interested in what to do next, in finding the action that will enhance fitness. What people brood about is not random but tracks key evolutionary themes (finding a mate, staying alive, achieving status, defending kith and kin, etc.). Mothers and fathers worry about their children at summer camp because mistakes in child rearing are evolutionarily costly. A mother who figures out that she’s dwelling on a failure to pack sunscreen can send a remedial Coppertone care package, and, the next time Tommy is sent away, he’s more likely to be fully provisioned. Even the most backward-looking counterfactual thinking (coulda, shoulda, woulda) has a forward-looking element: understanding why bad things happened helps us prevent their recurrence.

Reacting to low mood with thinking has evolutionary logic; it enhances survival and reproduction (fitness). Sadly, what’s good for fitness is not necessarily good for happiness. Only sometimes does thinking about mood enhance happiness. We see this fairly reliably in certain brands of psychotherapy, in which the process of thinking about mood and discovering its meanings is specially structured and guided by an expert. For a novice to think his or her way out of low mood and depression to get to a happier place - that’s a dicier proposition. Humans are understandably confident when trying to think our way out of a low mood. We solve so many other problems by thinking, such as how to get a stalled car to start or how to make a healthy meal out of scraps in the fridge.

Becky, a college professor in Maryland, organizes a team to analyze old production data from a distillery to figure out the determinants of good whiskey quality and use this information to ascertain why the distillery’s product loss between brewing and bottling is nearly twice the industry standard. She is now in an episode of depression. Every morning Becky wakes up and says to herself, “What can I do today to solve this problem?” But even with a PhD degree, considerable insight, and bookshelves filled with self-help books, her depression hasn’t budged for thirteen months. If you speak with her, even in her depressed state, it is immediately obvious that she is intelligent. On paper, she has every reason to believe that she can solve her depression.

Yet most humans, including Becky, are not nearly as good at this as they think they are. And our confidence in thought makes it more difficult to recognize when thinking is not working. The pitfalls of such an approach are under-appreciated. In fact, “thinking your way out” might actually provide new ways in, new ways for low mood to deepen into serious depression.

Our advanced language and ability to hold ideas in mind, called working memory, combine to create a formidable meaning-making machine. Yet this machine can be too productive for our own good. It can easily churn out new interpretations of a troubling situation well after the situation has passed. On Friday, a worker can still be mulling over her boss’s hostile comment from Monday and wonder, “Maybe it was that e-mail I sent three weeks ago that set him off.” Once the meaning-making machine is in overdrive, a bad mood can prompt a potentially unlimited number of implications. We can generate dozens of seemingly plausible environmental reasons for the question: “Why I am so blue?” (My job is boring. I need to lose weight. We can’t stop global warming.) Even if you are feeling only a tiny bit sad right now, take sixty seconds to try this yourself. I doubt you will draw a blank on possible reasons. You’ll have leads. Yet many of the leads will be false, that is, irrelevant to the real source of the mood. When the real source of low mood is a thyroid deficiency or a low-grade infection, an analysis of the environment is moot. Or worse than moot, because with all the attention we pay to the false leads (all the reasons I hate my job), we may find fresh reasons to feel low. The generation of false leads may be good for fitness (the value of an exhaustive search), but it’s not always so good for happiness.

Given our natural reliance on and our confidence in thought, the urge to repetitively think about the causes and consequences of low mood can harden into a habit. Researchers label this habit of thought rumination. Some people enter a ruminative mode even when facing minor troubles, or even when their environment is benevolent. A consistent body of data - much of it collected by the late psychologist Susan Nolen-Hoeksema - shows that this is a dangerous habit. People who report a greater tendency to ruminate on a short questionnaire have longer periods of depressed mood in everyday life, are more pessimistic about the future, and have a harder time recovering from the effects of stressors such as a natural disaster or a recent bereavement.

The human meaning-making machine is so good at what it does that it can generate interminable interpretations. When persistent thinking gets stuck, it does not arrive at a stable theory of the problem, does not solve it, and cannot come to terms with it. Far from engaging in active problem solving, a person may simply perseverate on the fact of the problem (or problems) for months on end.

When the meaning-making machine gets caught in this way, its analysis turns inward, shifting its focus from a problematic environment to a problematic self. Analyses of various kinds of thoughts have found that those that repeatedly focus on the failings of the self are the kind most closely linked to depression. Insistent problem solving by itself is not necessarily harmful. In fact, therapeutic techniques that bolster active problem solving (say by breaking a problem down into structured subparts) can be helpful for depressed persons. It’s the deconstruction of the self that really causes trouble.

As Homo sapiens sapiens, we know, and we know that we know. An elaborate conceptual self - another thing that’s usually a point of pride - becomes a vulnerability. We’re committed to our autobiographical self, our story. It’s as if we have films of our own lives playing in our heads, with us cast as the heroes. Depressed people, however, recast their movies with themselves as villains and play them in an endless loop. A depressed chimp, lacking a deep autobiographical self, is spared this screening and will never have the experience of lying awake at night thinking, “I am a terrible mother.” Our capacity to dwell on our own failings makes us more vulnerable to depression than our fellow mammals.

Humans also have a special category of failings because of our heightened ability to self-monitor: our failures to change mood. This was true for Becky, who said of herself, “As a goal-oriented person, I keep looking for (and trying) things I can do to snap out of the depression. Medication, meditation, sleeping pills, trying to spend time doing ‘things that bring me joy’ (which just backfires, because I end up feeling hopeless while I’m doing them).” Every day that the depression goes on, failures to change mood turn into nagging thoughts: “Why can’t I just get over this?”; “Why am I so weak?” These self-monitoring statements become further fodder for rumination, which becomes further fodder for depression, and we are reminded once again that our powers of language are a decidedly mixed blessing.

All Cheered Out: Culture and the Pursuit of Happiness: We are the only species to look to culture to guide us on what feelings are desirable and how undesirable feelings should be managed. And as humans try to “fix” low mood, they are never alone. No creature ever living has had available so much advice - spiritual, medical, psychological, folk-inspired - about what to do when it’s feeling down. In the past fifteen years we have seen an ever-growing stream of psychological and popular science books examining happiness and how people can increase it. Ideally, these resources should serve as bulwarks against depression. Perversely, the opposite may be the case. Our predominant cultural imperatives about mood, though surely well-intentioned, are worsening the depression epidemic.

In the West there is a powerful drive to experience happiness. This tradition is particularly strong in the United States. Indeed, it’s difficult to think of anything more American than the pursuit of happiness. Along with life and liberty, it’s written into the Declaration of Independence as a fundamental right. Wanting happiness is as American as apple pie. But how happy should we expect to be? Happier than other people around the globe?

It would appear so. Analysis of thousands of survey responses found that when people in different countries were asked to rate how desirable and appropriate it is to experience varying psychological states, positive states like joy and affection were rated more desirable and appropriate in Australia and the United States than in Taiwan and China. Cross-cultural research by Jeanne Tsai of Stanford University has also found that European Americans place the highest value on specific forms of happiness, idealizing states like enthusiasm or excitement, termed high arousal positive states. By contrast, Chinese and other Asian test subjects place the highest value on other forms of happiness, idealizing states such as calm and serenity, termed low arousal positive states.

Consistent with the notion that culture inculcates ideals about feeling states, cultural differences show up early in life. When young children judge smiling photographs, American children prefer the expression that shows an excited smile to the expression that shows a calm smile. Taiwanese children do not show this same preference. American preferences for high arousal positive states probably have many roots, but they stem in part from a media environment that values peppy happiness. An image analysis of smile photos in American women’s magazines found that they contained more excited smiles and fewer calm smiles than smile photos in Chinese women’s magazines.

So what’s the problem? Everyone I know wants to be alive, free, and happy. What’s wrong with pursuing happiness to the fullest extent possible? The more you value your happiness, the happier you’ll be, right? Wrong, says compelling recent research.

Two studies led by psychologist Iris Mauss found evidence for an alternative hypothesis: people who value happiness more are less likely to achieve their goal of feeling happy. In the first study the researchers administered a questionnaire designed to measure the extent to which people valued the experience of happiness as a fundamental goal. Mauss and colleagues found that some people put an especially high value on happiness, endorsing items like, “If I don’t feel happy, maybe there is something wrong with me”; and “To have a meaningful life, I need to feel happy most of the time.” Surprisingly, women who said that they valued happiness more were actually less happy than women who valued it less. Specifically, women who valued happiness highly reported that they were less satisfied with the overall course of their lives and were more bothered by symptoms of depression. Strangely enough, valuing happiness seemed most problematic for women whose lives were low in stress—the people for whom happiness should have been within easiest reach.

The second study was a clever experiment in which the researchers tried to briefly increase how much the participants valued happiness. They did this by having one group of participants read a bogus newspaper article that extolled the importance of achieving happiness (the other group read an article that did not discuss happiness). Later in the experiment participants watched different short films. Those women who had read the happiness-extolling article reported feeling less happiness in response to a happy film. The authors again concluded that, paradoxically, valuing happiness more may lead people to be less happy, especially when happiness is within reach.

These experiments help us understand why predominant cultural imperatives about mood might be worsening the depression epidemic. Our current cultural ethos is that achieving happiness is like achieving other goals. If we simply work hard at it, we can master happiness, just as we can figure out how to use new computer software, play the piano, or learn Spanish. However, if the goal of becoming happier is different from these other goals, efforts devoted to augmenting happiness may backfire, disappointing - and potentially depressing - us because we can’t achieve our expected goal. Mauss and colleagues concluded that setting a goal to become happier is like putting yourself on a treadmill that goes faster the harder you run.

Rising happiness standards widen the gap between what we want to feel and what we actually feel. We know from Jeanne Tsai’s work that people in the West generally idealize excitement and other high arousal positive states. Although this is a general tendency, she has also shown that people vary in how strong their positive ideal is. Importantly, for people who have that strong positive ideal, there is potentially a large gap between what they would like to feel and what they actually feel. The size of this gap predicts depression. People who have a larger gap between their ideal and actual positive affect have more depressive symptoms.

This is not surprising: to someone with high happiness goals, low moods are as demoralizing as a foreclosure notice is to an aspiring billionaire. If you believe that a high positive mood should be easy to achieve, a prolonged low mood is an insult, which probably prompts the isolating and stigmatizing question: “What’s wrong with me?” Negative feelings about negative feelings make them a greater threat. People who set unrealistic goals for mood states may be less able to accept or tolerate negative emotional experiences like anxiety or sadness. Oddly enough, being able to accept negative feelings - rather than always striving to make them disappear - seems to be associated with feeling better, not worse, over the long run. There is evidence that when people accept negative feelings, those experiences draw less attention and less negative evaluation than they would otherwise. Some research shows that people who report an ability to accept negative feelings when they arise are less likely to experience depressive symptoms in the future.

Ultimately, the strong cultural imperative toward being happy bumps us up against a wall: our mood system is not configured to deliver an end state of durable euphoria. Happy euphoria is a reward the mood system metes out along the way, on the road to pursuing other evolutionarily important goals. For example, euphoria is a reward for having sex or for when your first-choice date to the prom says yes. By design, these rewards are meted out sparingly rather than liberally.

Yes, pleasure after eating the carrot rewards the bunny for finding the carrot, yet a well-designed bunny does not stay satiated. It’s the end of the pleasure and the promise of more that gets the bunny hopping off to find more carrots and ultimately to survive long enough to make more bunnies. So clearly does intense happiness fade after a goal is achieved that psychologists and economists have given the experience its own label: hedonic adaptation. It is powerful, and studies show it to be virtually omnipresent: whether after purchasing a zippy new sports car, getting a big promotion, or moving to a cool new apartment, with time (often surprisingly little) the euphoria fades.

Hedonic adaptation and our unattainable cultural imperatives make for a cruel combination. People will usually fall outside the zone of intense pleasure, and they will consider that failure. In this scenario, shortcuts are tempting. Forget having to realize an evolutionarily important goal and just give me the pleasure now, please. The high from smoking crack is almost immediate, but it does not last. In the long run, the shortcuts backfire. The mood system has the last word.”
Related:
“How To Be Unhappy: 10 Surefire Ways To Be Unhappy in Life”

“Mary Oliver On How to Live ‘Your One Wild and Precious Life’”

“Mary Oliver On How to Live ‘Your One Wild and Precious Life’”
by Sanjiv Chopra, M.D.

“Someone I loved once gave me a box full of darkness. 
It took me years to understand that this too, was a gift.”
 - Mary Oliver

“The quiet, plain-spoken poet Mary Oliver died on January 17, 2019. An outpouring of emotion and tributes spanned the globe. She was both mourned and wildly revered by those for whom her words were a totem. With stark simplicity, she offered us both spiritual guidance and common sense, all of which was garnered from lessons she learned while simply meandering in the woods.

Mary Oliver’s gift was her ability to marvel at the world with an unsentimental acceptance that it (and we) are temporary. She looked clear-eyed and with unflinching certainty at the impermanence of our existence. In it she found not despair but rather joy. She chose to live in the moment and to be dazzled by it.

Mary Oliver’s roots were thoroughly midwestern. She hailed from Maple Heights, Ohio, a leafy suburb of Cleveland. From all accounts, hers was a difficult childhood. She wrote in “Blue Pastures” (winner of the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award): “Adults can change their circumstances; children cannot. Children are powerless, and in difficult situations they are the victims of every sorrow and mischance and rage around them, for children feel all of these things but without any of the ability that adults have to change them.”

This darkness of her youth led her to escape into nature and into books. Words and woods offered her solace. She fiercely embraced them, noting that “the beauty and the mystery of the world, out in the fields or deep inside books – can re-dignify the worst stung heart.”

We know, and she acknowledged, that overcoming adversity isn’t easy: “There are stubborn stumps of shame, grief that remains unsolvable after all the years, a bag of stones that goes with one wherever one goes and however the hour may call for dancing and for light feet.” But she persisted. She said she read, “the way a person might swim, to save his or her life,” and that nature offered her “an antidote to confusion.”

She advised, “you must not, ever, give anyone else the responsibility for your life.” And in saving her life, she rekindled so many of ours, using words that were deceptively simple but that had the power to shine a bright light into the dark crevices of our pain and misfortune and to set us free from the past. She gave us clear instructions for living a life:
“Pay attention. 

Be astonished. 

Tell about it.”
And for her- and for so many of us who have long sat at the knee of her prose – it worked. Mary Oliver wrote, “Having chosen to claim my life, I have made for myself, out of work and love, a handsome life. And can do what I want to with it. Live it. Give it back, someday, without bitterness, to the wild and weedy dunes.” And when she died, she gave it back.

Mary Oliver’s religion was simple. It could best be described as “gratitude.” And so, as she departed this world leaving for us so many gifts, we offer this prayer for her – thank you. To honor her, we share here one of Mary Oliver’s most powerful poems, one that offers sage advice about accepting imperfection.”
“The Ponds”

“Every year

the lilies

are so perfect

I can hardly believe
their lapped light 
crowding
the black

mid-summer ponds.


Nobody could count all of them -
the muskrats swimming

among the pads and the grasses

can reach out

their muscular arms and touch
only so many, 
they are that 
rife and wild.


But what in this world 
is perfect?
I bend closer and see

how this one is clearly lopsided -

and that one wears an orange blight -

and this one is a glossy cheek 
half nibbled away -

and that one is a slumped purse

full of its own
 unstoppable decay.

Still, what I want in my life

is to be willing

to be dazzled - 

to cast aside the weight of facts
and maybe even

to float a little

above this difficult world.


want to believe I am looking
into the white fire 
of a great mystery.

I want to believe that the imperfections are nothing -
that the light is everything - 
that it is more than the sum 

of each flawed blossom rising and fading. 
And I do.”

- Mary Oliver

"It Is Easy..."

“It is easy to overlook this thought that life just is. As humans we are inclined to feel that life must have a point. We have plans and aspirations and desires. We want to take constant advantage of the intoxicating existence we’ve been endowed with. But what’s life to a lichen? Yet its impulse to exist, to be, is every bit as strong as ours - arguably even stronger. If I were told that I had to spend decades being a furry growth on a rock in the woods, I believe I would lose the will to go on. Lichens don’t. Like virtually all living things, they will suffer any hardship, endure any insult, for a moment’s additional existence. Life, in short, just wants to be.”
- Bill Bryson

Musical Interlude: Yanni, “Standing in Motion", "Live At The Acropolis"

Yanni, 
“Standing in Motion", "Live At The Acropolis"

Musical Interlude: Andre Rieu & BOND, "Victory"

Andre Rieu & BOND, "Victory"

"Background Music for Deep Focus, Studying and Work"

Greenred Productions, 
"Background Music for Deep Focus, Studying and Work"

"How It Really Is"

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 1/5/21"

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 1/5/21"


JAN 5, AT 4:49 AM: "Portuguese Nurse Dies Suddenly After Receiving COVID Vaccine" "Another suspicious death..."
 Jan. 5, 2021 8:11 AM ET: 
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 85,768,300 
people, according to official counts, including 20,864,927 Americans.
Globally at least 1,855,300 have died.

"The COVID Tracking Project"
Every day, our volunteers compile the latest numbers on tests, cases, 
hospitalizations, and patient outcomes from every US state and territory.
https://covidtracking.com/

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 1/5/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 1/5/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Gregory Mannarino, AM 1/5/21:
Important Market Updates Plus:
U.S.A. "Property Of" The Federal Reserve
"The more I see of the monied classes, 
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

"Statistician: Lockdowns Don't Work Because They Force People To Congregate In Fewer Places"

"Statistician: Lockdowns Don't Work Because They 
Force People To Congregate In Fewer Places"
by Paul Joseph Watson

"Author and statistician William M. Briggs argues that lockdowns don’t work because they force people to gather in fewer places like supermarkets and therefore spread viruses faster than if people were allowed to spread out. Writing on his blog, Briggs states, “A lockdown will spread this bug faster than allowing people to remain at liberty.”

The author notes that a lockdown is not the same as a quarantine. Under lockdown, people only have a limited selection of venues at which they are allowed to gather, meaning those locations are busier and therefore make a virus more transmissible. “Lockdowns are merely forced gatherings,” writes Briggs. “People in lockdown are allowed to venture forth from their dwellings to do “essential” activities, like spending money at oligarch-run stores. These stores are collection points, where people are concentrated. Some are allowed to go to jobs, such as supporting oligarch-run stores.”

Briggs notes that lockdown concentrates people into fewer areas outside before it “then it forces them back inside to mingle with a vengeance.” “It’s clear that our 100% transmissible bug will spread much faster when people are forced to spend more time indoors with each other. Once one person gets it, he will spread it to those at his home immediately. If people were at liberty, and therefore more separated, the bug would still spread to everybody, but more slowly (the speed here is relative),” he writes.

“Lockdowns force people together. The venues they are allowed to venture to are restricted, and therefore concentrate contact, and they force people inside their homes where it’s obvious contact time increases. Lockdowns concentrate contact spaces and times,” concludes Briggs.

Briggs writes further that before 2020 it was obvious that lockdowns (with then only weather forcing people to gather inside for long periods) not only did not stop the transmission of bugs, but helped spread them. A look (below) at the all-cause death numbers peaking every single winter without exception (this year, too) proved that. It was in no way controversial. It was so well known that forced contact spread bugs that mentioning it was like saying the sun rose in the east. Then came 2020 and the “expert” idea of lockdowns would do the opposite of what everybody had always known they would do. Suddenly, instead of spreading bugs, as they always did before, they would stop or at least slow the spread. Experts said so.

Why? Models. Specifically, the two-step Model Circular Jerk. It works like this. A modeler says “X is true.” He builds a model that assumes “X is true”. He runs the model, which output consists of “X is true” and its variants. He then announces, “X is true, confirmed by my sophisticated computer model.”

In our case, we have a Ferguson claiming some new variant of the coronavirus has a higher transmissibility, an assumption. He says to himself “Lockdowns slow and stop the spread of bugs”. He builds a model that assumes “Lockdowns slow and stop the spread of bugs”. He runs the models, which consists of “This lockdowns will slow and stop the spread of this new bug variant.” And he announced he has confirmed the efficacy of lockdowns via his sophisticated model. And he is believed.

This happens everywhere, not just with coronavirus. Briggs’ assertion is also backed up by how people spend their leisure time under lockdown. With most shops, cinemas and other entertainment venues closed, people in major cities pour en masse into parks or beaches where ‘social distancing’ is virtually impossible because there are so many people around. In London, rates of COVID-19 infection were higher after the November lockdown than before it started."

"The U.S. Has Lost More Than 110,000 Restaurants, Setting The Stage For A Commercial Real Estate Collapse Of Epic Proportions"

"The U.S. Has Lost More Than 110,000 Restaurants, Setting The
 Stage For A Commercial Real Estate Collapse Of Epic Proportions"
by Michael Snyder

"The restaurant industry is in the midst of a complete and total meltdown that is unlike anything that we have ever seen before. If you ask Google how many restaurants there are in the United States, it will tell you that there are 660,755, although that number is a few years old. But for the purposes of this article, that is a good enough estimate. Americans love to eat out, and restaurant workers are some of the hardest working people in the entire country. So it is incredibly sad to see more restaurants constantly going under. In some cases, restaurants that have served their communities for decades are deciding to permanently close their doors. For example, over the weekend Sammy’s Roumanian Steakhouse in New York City announced that it had finally reached the end of the road:

"Landmark New York City restaurant Sammy’s Roumanian Steakhouse has closed its iconic basement-level doors as the coronavirus pandemic continues to cripple the restaurant industry. The Lower East Side fixture was famous for its latkes spreads, chopped liver, and vodka bottles frozen in blocks of ice and was known as a boisterous party spot frequented by celebrities. Unfortunately, Sammy’s is far from alone.

In fact, in a recent article that he penned for Fox Business, Adam Piper lamented the fact that more than 100,000 U.S. restaurants have gone out of business during this pandemic: "State and local governments have wielded the coronavirus pandemic as license to steal freedom and opportunity in pursuit of unprecedented omnipotence. Unreasonable, unnecessary and hypocritical actions have forced over 100,000 restaurants to close and endanger countless others."

And according to Bloomberg, the true number of dead restaurants is now over 110,000: "More than 110,000 restaurants have closed permanently or long-term across the country as the industry grapples with the devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic."

Just think about that. More than one out of every six restaurants in the U.S. is already gone, and the National Restaurant Association is warning that there will be more carnage in the months ahead because the industry is in “an economic free fall”: “The restaurant industry simply cannot wait for relief any longer,” Sean Kennedy, executive vice president of public affairs at the association, said in a letter to Congress. “What these findings make clear is that more than 500,000 restaurants of every business type — franchise, chain and independent — are in an economic free fall.”

This is what an economic depression looks like. With tens of thousands of restaurants sitting empty, and with tens of thousands of others not paying rent, the stage has been set for a commercial real estate disaster of unprecedented scope and size.

Of course there are millions of square feet of office space and retail space that are not being productive right now as well. In a recent article, Lee Adler referred to this looming commercial real estate nightmare as “a monster in the room”: "I think that if there’s anything that illustrates the head in the sand problem of the banks, it’s this. Commercial real estate (CRE) finance. There’s a monster in the room. All that empty space. No longer income producing."

For now, big financial institutions are doing their best to hide their coming losses, but according to Adler for certain sectors the losses will simply be unavoidable: "Multifamily will take a haircut but will survive. My guess is that industrial, while overpriced and overvalued, will produce enough income to get by. Office and retail? Kiss it goodbye. It’s done. Over. Kaput."

Sadly, he is right on target. The coming commercial real estate crisis is going to make the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2008 and 2009 look like a Sunday picnic. And the longer this pandemic stretches on, the larger the losses will ultimately become.

For residential real estate, the big story is that hordes of Americans are fleeing both coasts and are moving to smaller communities in the middle of the country. So even as housing prices drop substantially in major cities on the east coast and the west coast, they are rising rapidly in cities such as Pittsburgh, Boise and Austin: "Smaller metropolitan markets like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Boise, Idaho, Austin, Texas, and Memphis, Tennessee are seeing some of the strongest price gains in the nation now, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Prices in those cities are now at least 10% higher than with a year earlier."

And as I discussed yesterday, we are actually starting to see hyperinflation for high end properties in desirable rural and suburban areas of the country. Just recently, a friend sold a home that is located not too far from us for a price that almost made my eyes bug out of my head. I literally had a difficult time believing the insanely high price that they were able to get, but this is what happens in a hyperinflationary environment.

2020 may have been a “personal financial disaster” for 55 percent of all Americans, but thanks to the hyperinflation in the stock market the wealthy have more money to throw at high end real estate than ever before.

Unfortunately, all of this wild money printing is not going to be able to prevent the coming crash in commercial real estate. No matter how much money they have, many Americans are simply too afraid of COVID to eat out right now, and that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. And we are going to continue to see more Americans migrate away from the large cities on both coasts, and more businesses in those core urban areas will continue to fail. As the commercial real estate crash unfolds, a lot of financial institutions simply won’t be able to make it without government help.

So will the federal government bail them out? You never know, but every dollar the federal government borrows and spends just makes our long-term problems even worse. All of the dominoes are starting to fall, and we are still in the very early chapters of this horrifying economic collapse. Unfortunately, most Americans still don’t understand what is happening, and most of them have no idea that economic conditions will soon get even worse."

Monday, January 4, 2021

Americans Are Burning Through Stimulus Checks And Savings; The Dollar Is In Big Trouble; Gold, Silver”

Jeremiah Babe,
Americans Are Burning Through Stimulus Checks And Savings;
The Dollar Is In Big Trouble; Gold, Silver”

"The United States Has Become A Banana Republic"

"The United States Has Become A Banana Republic"
by Epic Economist

"The U.S. dollar is being rapidly destroyed by the current money printing policy. Several experts have been warning the collapse may happen sooner than expected, which means we will be seeing the debasement of our purchasing power as prices continue to soar amid the astronomical surge of inflation in all fronts of our economy. 

If the central bank keeps enacting Quantitative Easing policies at the current pace, it won't be long until our fiat currency becomes worthless paper. Investors across the world are already realizing the dangers of keeping their assets in U.S. dollars, that's why economists are arguing that our currency's hegemony is declining. And with other currencies performing strongly, the U.S. is at risk of losing its position as the owner of the leading global reserve currency. That's what we are going to expose in this video

Once the health crisis hit America, our policymakers decided to go on "full Weimar" mode and never look back. The expansion of our monetary supply almost went vertical, and it continues to climb as more money printed out of thin air keeps being pumped into the economy. The Federal Reserve has set an official target rate of inflation to hit 2% per year. But as financial expert Marin Katusa has recently explained, by hitting its target the Fed is essentially leading the dollar to lose around one-third of its current value.

James Turk stated in a recent tweet that prices are already rising in soybeans, stock indices, crude oil, copper, BTC & many more items. “Money printing by the Federal Reserve means inflation in 2021 is baked into the cake," he warned. M1 increased by over 50 percent in 2020. The blow-up of the money supply is truly alarming. It practically makes all the inflation that has come before look quite insignificant as compared to what we're experiencing right now. 

Whenever new money enters the financial system, every dollar that people currently own becomes less valuable. As our paychecks won't rise at the same speed as the money supply, they will become less valuable as well. So we will buy increasingly less as products and services become considerably more expensive. 

As several economies and global trade completely stalled, governments around the world collectively started to move towards the introduction of negative rates and money printing policies. And once countries start to massively pump liquidity into the economy, there’s no going back. A clear demonstration of it can be seen in stocks. 

Consequently, in view of the incredible amount of printed money, the dollar has gotten weaker and its weakness has reverberated through the markets and pave the way for real assets to perform exceptionally well. Now, it currently faces its largest short position since 2014. That is to say, investors have been betting against U.S. dollars at levels not seen in years.

While it loses its credibility amongst investors, the dollar's position as the most dominant global reserve currency gets greatly shaken. The status of hegemony is what guarantees the support to the ballooning US government debt, the Fed’s money-printing frenzy, and Corporate America’s ambition to offshore production to cheap countries, which in turn, creates an enormous trade deficit. They all have become dependent on the willingness of other central banks to hold large amounts of dollar-denominated paper. However, apparently, those central banks are getting cold feet. 

The global share of US-dollar-denominated exchange reserves has dropped to 60.5% in 2020's third quarter, hitting the lowest level since 1995. With a stable Euro and a rise in the share of the Japanese yen as second and third reserve currencies that actually have large trade surpluses with the rest of the world, the dollar's trade deficit might become a liability. 

The only ones that have been actively benefiting from the inflated money supply are the ultra-wealthy. According to a report by economy writer Martha C. White, one of the main drives of billionaire wealth concentration was the "unprecedented" monetary policy response to stabilize financial markets during the burst of the sanitary outbreak, resulting in the "stock market’s gravity-defying rise". From then on, the United States gained 56 new billionaires.

Meanwhile, almost 60% of our population has experienced or is still experiencing financial setbacks and since our authorities are likely to keep responding to every crisis with more money, we're headed to a hyperinflationary path and to the total degradation of our fiat currency. In short, as the dollar collapses, the inequality gaps widen and economic deterioration gets a whole lot worse."