Thursday, October 29, 2020

"Write Your Worries On The Sand..."

“I walked slowly out on the beach.
A few yards below high-water mark I stopped and read the words again: 
WRITE YOUR WORRIES ON THE SAND.
I let the paper blow away, reached down and picked up a fragment of shell. 
Kneeling there under the vault of the sky,
 I wrote several words, one above the other.
Then I walked away, and I did not look back. 
I had written my troubles on the sand. 
The tide was coming in.”
- Arthur Gordon

The Daily "Near You?"

 

Derby, Kansas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"To Really Ask..."

“Very few beings really seek knowledge in this world – few really ask. On the contrary, they try to wring from the unknown the answers they have already shaped in their own minds – justifications, confirmations, forms of consolation without which they can’t go on. To really ask is to open the door to a whirlwind. The answer may annihilate the question and the questioner.”
- Anne Rice, “The Vampire Lestat”

"On the Trail of the Disappearing Water"

"On the Trail of the Disappearing Water"
By Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "Yesterday, the Dow fell another 943 points. Investors paced nervously… worrying …that the coronavirus is not going away…that no vaccine will prove effective (at least not soon)…that sales and profits will be down for a long time…and that the results of next week’s election won’t help.

Decision Time: Yes, we are getting closer and closer to decision day. A fork in the road. One tine leads to more spending, more bombast, more debt, more money-printing, more drama, and more BS… Heck, in the second quarter of this year, government spending was more than half of GDP! The other tine leads to more bailouts and giveaways… with more new programs – A Green New Deal… universal free medical care… free college… a universal basic income… and, of course, more money-printing…

Both roads end up in the same place – inflation… depression… social upheaval… political corruption… imperial decline… and national disaster. On November 3, voters – those who haven’t already wasted their time – will get a chance to express themselves on which road they prefer. Since both roads, high and low, lead to the same place, the choice is largely aesthetic.

Mr. Donald Trump is like a huge, colorful eyesore of a couch in a small living room. It is the object that catches everyone’s eye. Some want to get rid of it – it is simply too imposing, they say, with neither charm nor style. But many are happy with the sofa… 100% made-in-America… red, white, and blue! It may be ugly, they say, but it is comfortable. They don’t want any of that fashionable, Scandinavian, modern, or minimalist contemporary stuff. Our guess is that most voters are ready to redecorate. If so, they may end up with an even more hideous piece of furniture in the White House. But we will see.

Hell and Paradise: Meanwhile, we’ll follow up with our report on life here in the CalchaquĆ­. To remind readers… our adversaries are entrenched in two high valleys. In the Quebrada Grande are four farms… occupied by local families with deep roots in the area. That is where the local activist, Maria La Gorda (Fat Mary) lives. We went to see her a week ago and reported on our visit yesterday.

On Sunday, we went up to the bigger, farther-away, higher valley – Compuel. It is a huge valley – perhaps of some 10,000 acres… maybe more. But there are no trees… and no possibility of farming. More like Mongolia than Missouri, it is for herdsmen, not farmers. Both paradise and Hell, Compuel is surrounded by majestic mountains. In the summer, there are shallow lakes, marshes, ducks, and lush grass. In the winter, the flowers shrivel, the cattle die, the water disappears, and a cold, bitter wind blows a gale through the whole valley.

Disappearing Water: At the bottom of the valley floor, a stream runs from north to south… finally coming to a narrow defile between the mountains, where it tumbles down about 10 miles to the small valley where our grapes are grown. That stream has practically disappeared completely, leading some of our farmhands to conclude that the originarios up in Compuel had dammed the river.

We had thought of damming the river ourselves. The pass is so narrow, it would be easy to block it. Then, the resulting lake could serve as a huge reservoir, from which we could release water as needed. It was a good idea, but beyond our engineering abilities… as well as beyond the range of our logistical support… So we forgot about it.

Compuel Cattle: In the meantime, the whole valley slipped out of our control. A severe drought five years ago forced us to remove our cattle. They were taken down to a lower valley. Many died, unable to adjust to different food and a different climate. And the survivors went soft, gradually adapting to an easier life. They got used to electric lights and mild winters. Then, it was impossible to take them back up to Compuel. Few would survive. “Compuel cattle need to be raised in Compuel and stay in Compuel,” explained our former farm foreman, Jorge. “You almost have to create a special breed, a mixture of the mountain creole cattle and Brafords.”

On the Warpath: In theory, the valley floor is ours to use as we see fit. The pastajeros (shepherds) who live at Compuel are supposed to keep their animals up in the mountains. But now, the originarios are on the warpath. They have seized the whole place… filling it with sheep, goats, cattle, llamas, and burros. They don’t worry about the quality of the animals or about selling them… or even about keeping them alive. Instead, the animals are allowed to reproduce. Then, in the dry season, they have nothing to eat.

It is a long, hard ride to Compuel… up over three passes, the highest at 14,000 feet… and then out onto the broad valley floor to where the river comes down from the high mountains to the north.
Valley floor.
(Credit: Elizabeth Bonner)

We left before first light, taking the long way around… to avoid the harder trail up over the mountain behind the house, and to spare the horses. Then, it was a long, slow ride… the three of us – Elizabeth, our foreman Gustavo, and I – along with two dogs cheerfully trailing behind.
Heading for Compuel
(Credit: Elizabeth Bonner)

Inca Ruins: The old road follows an Inca trail. There were Indian terraces on the hillsides and remnants of old irrigation ditches. Stone walls – from terraces, fences, and abandoned houses – are all over the place. Indians were in the area for, maybe, 10,000 years… and the Spanish for another 300 years. It’s hard to know which ruins belong to whom. When we finally crested the highest of the passes, we looked down on the vast valley. Then, riding down to the valley floor, we rounded a huge, rocky hill and came upon one of the most important of the Inca ruins.

Large squares or rectangles, outlined with stone walls, they are too large to have been roofed. Archeologists guess that they were a vast series of corrals. But it is hard to see why so many would have been needed. Bits of broken pottery lie all over the ground. Last year, when visiting these ruins, we looked down and found a tiny puma head made of clay.
(Credit: Elizabeth Bonner)

It was next to these old ruins – centrally located near the entrance to the valley, and near a fulsome supply of stones – that previous owners had recycled the Inca walls into a grand corral… along with two small houses, where the cowboys could stay out of the wind when they were up taking care of the cattle. These two houses are now blackened shells, having been partly dismantled and then burned.

Disastrous Decision: We pushed on to a stone formation deeper into the valley. It is called the “Tower,” because it looks a bit like a medieval castle with a castle keep sticking up. Looking more carefully, we see that it is capped by a huge stone that teeters on edge and looks like it might fall down at any time. There, we stopped for lunch… circumnavigating the Tower, looking for shade. But in the midday sun, there was no shade to be had. So we huddled against a large rock to get out of the wind.

“We used to keep 250 cows here,” Gustavo explained. “And when we saw any animals that belonged to the local people, we told them to get them off… or we’d shoot them. They don’t have the right to this grass. We should never have taken the cows out of the valley.” “But they were starving…” we replied. “Most of them would probably have survived. And now, we’ve lost the valley. We’ll put a few cows here in the summer. But it’s so full of useless animals, none of them will have much to eat. Look at it… It’s a disaster.”

Attack of the Curious Llamas: This was a comment from an experienced cattleman. What we saw were groups of cows – 10 here, 20 there… hundreds of them in total – grazing on what little grass was left. Sheep were abundant, too – with dozens and dozens of lambs bouncing as if carefree over the clumps of eaten-down grass.

One of the peculiarities of the place is that when the water dries up, the land that appears is lumpy… as if it were bubbling up. The horses find walking on it difficult. They have to make their way over and around the clumps of dirt and grass. In addition to the skinny cows… and both white and black sheep, with scraggly wool and spindly legs… there were dozens of burros and llamas. The burros ran off when we approached them. But the llamas are curious. They approached us.

Elizabeth’s horse was startled by them… it panicked and started to run. Her horse had recently been brought up from the farm below; it had never seen these strange-looking beasts. Gustavo dismounted and tried to shoo the llamas away…“Go ahead,” he yelled to Elizabeth. We put our horse – who had no fear of the llamas – between the animals and Elizabeth… like running interference in a football game… allowing her to get away from them.

Not Strictly Legal: The most useless animals – llamas and burros – seemed to be in the best shape. They appeared healthy, at least. The burros looked sturdy and well-fed. The llamas had thick, almost luxurious fleeces – dark brown or tan – that would have been good additions to any living room. The locals make no attempt to control breeding. And they can’t sell their animals in any quantity. Instead, they let nature take her course. But nature is cruel up here. On our short ride, we saw five or six dead cows. They get thin and weak… and then die. And the worst is still ahead. It won’t rain until December or January.

“You know, in the old days…” Gustavo began. We cut him off. “I know… I know… The owner would have come up here, shot all the animals, and burned down the locals’ houses. But we can’t do that. This is 2020… and we’re foreigners. We’d be crucified in the press… and in the courts. We’d end up in jail for the rest of our lives.”

“Yes, of course… But we don’t have to do it. Some of the guys around here – including the governor… I mean, the ex-governor… your friend – they call in the Bolivians.” “I only met him once or twice… The Bolivians?”

"Yes, they are some really nasty guys. But they get the job done. And everybody knows they mean business. So they don’t have to use violence. They would just go to visit these originarios and let them know that bad things will happen to them if they don’t straighten up. Otherwise, we’re going to have to fix the corral… and they’re going to destroy it again. But after a visit from the Bolivians, they won’t want to do anything.

You know, this is not North America. This is Argentina. A lot of things happen here that aren’t strictly legal. I mean, who changes his money at the official rate? Nobody. And what businessman declares his income honestly? He’d have to be crazy.”

Gustavo laughed. “And if you tried to respect all the laws, you’d soon be broke… and crazy.” “Sounds tempting… I mean, calling in the Bolivians… But once you start down that path – unless you’re the governor – bad things can happen to you, too. It’s like paying a hit man. Then, he can control you. Sounds like it would make a good movie plot. But what makes you think you can trust them? The ex-governor, he’s got power… friends… connections. He might be able to use those Bolivian guys. But us? No thanks.”

Nothing Illegal: After an hour or so, we had finished our lunch… We remounted and continued on to the middle of the valley. We stopped by a small stream still running with water. “They haven’t blocked it,” noted Gustavo. “At least not down here. But this time of year, it won’t reach the end of the valley. It will sink into the ground and come up again further on down the mountain.” This was what we wanted to see. So we headed south to the end of the valley, vaguely shadowing the meandering stream.

After about a half an hour more, the tiny river came to a pool… and didn’t go any further, about a mile short of where the valley ends and the water splashes down between the rocks. “That’s all there is. They didn’t block it. It just doesn’t go any further. The water goes into the sand.” Having satisfied ourselves that there was no reason to call the police – or the Bolivians… we turned our horses around and headed home."

"On The Meridian Of Time..."

“On the meridian of time there is no injustice: there is only the poetry of motion creating the illusion of truth and drama. If at any moment anywhere one comes face to face with the absolute, that great sympathy which makes men like Gautama and Jesus seem divine freezes away; the monstrous thing is not that men have created roses out of this dung heap, but that, for some reason or other, they should want roses. For some reason or other man looks for the miracle, and to accomplish it he will wade through blood. He will debauch himself with ideas, he will reduce himself to a shadow if for only one second of his life he can close his eyes to the hideousness of reality. Everything is endured – disgrace, humiliation, poverty, war, crime, ennui – in the belief that overnight something will occur, a miracle, which will render life tolerable.”
- Henry Miller

Gregory Mannarino, “Important Updates, 100% Fake Propaganda Government Data”

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/29/20:
“Important Updates, 100% Fake Propaganda Government Data”

"How It Really Is"

 

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 10/29/20"

by David Leonhardt

Oct 29, 2020: "With coronavirus cases surging across most of Europe and the Americas, it can be easy to give into nihilism and wonder whether there is any good way for a country to fight the virus. But the scale of the recent outbreaks really is different, depending on the country. Two countries are worth some attention: Canada and Germany.
Neither Germany nor Canada has escaped the fall wave of the virus, as you can see. But they are also both doing a lot less bad than their neighbors. How? For one thing, both countries have done a better job of avoiding wishful thinking than either the Trump administration or some European governments.

Germany announced yesterday that it would close restaurants, bars, gyms, theaters and more for several weeks. “We must act, and act now, to prevent a national health crisis,” Chancellor Angela Merkel said. Compare that with the U.S., where the rate of confirmed new cases has been higher than Germany’s current rate for almost all of the past five months - yet almost nobody is talking about closing restaurants. Yesterday’s move isn’t the first aggressive one from Germany. It was also far ahead of the U.S. in developing widely available tests this spring and offers them to residents free.

But Canada may be an even better example, given that its current rate of new cases is well below Germany’s. Consider this map:
Some of Canada’s success is probably cultural and would have been hard to replicate in the U.S., as Ian Austen, a Canadian who has covered the country for The Times for more than a decade, told me. “There is generally a lot of deference to authority in Canada,” Ian said.

But specific actions have also mattered. Unlike in the U.S., conservative politicians in Canada are not doubting the wisdom of mask-wearing, Ian said. This spring, Doug Ford, the conservative premier of Ontario, described people protesting social-distancing measures as “a bunch of yahoos.”

And some top public-health officials in Canadian provinces have become semi-celebrities, as they have repeatedly urged social distancing, mask-wearing and other forms of caution. Imagine versions of Anthony Fauci, but ones who are praised across the political spectrum, rather than being called “a disaster,” as President Trump did with Fauci.

Among the most successful Canadian regions have been the four small provinces along the Atlantic Ocean, all of which have almost extinguished the virus. They have done so by largely closing their borders - a strategy that has also worked in several other countries, including Australia, Ghana, Taiwan and Vietnam, despite skepticism from some political liberals around the world.

The four Canadian provinces - Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and the combined Newfoundland and Labrador - were successful enough this spring that they were able to form a joint “bubble” this summer. Residents can travel among the four, even as they remain closed to the outside. “We don’t have any cases here,” Sharon Stewart, a restaurant owner in Pictou, Nova Scotia, recently told The Globe and Mail, “and we want to keep it that way.”

Oct 29, 2020 12:15 AM ET: 
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 44,498,000 
people, according to official counts, including 8,932,709 Americans.

      Oct 29, 2020 12:15 AM ET: 
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

Updated 10/29/20, 4:24 AM ET
Click image for larger size.

"Can Your Vote Prevent a Civil War?"

"Can Your Vote Prevent a Civil War?"
by Doug Casey

"Democracy is vastly overrated. It’s not like the consensus of a bunch of friends agreeing to see the same movie. Most often, it boils down to a kinder and gentler variety of mob rule, dressed in a coat and tie. The essence of positive values like personal liberty, wealth, opportunity, fraternity, and equality lies not in democracy, but in free minds and free markets where government becomes trivial. Democracy focuses people’s thoughts on politics, not production; on the collective, not on their own lives.

Although democracy is just one way to structure a state, the concept has reached cult status; unassailable as political dogma. It is, as economist Joseph Schumpeter observed, "a surrogate faith for intellectuals deprived of religion." Most of the founders of America were more concerned with liberty than democracy. Tocqueville saw democracy and liberty as almost polar opposites.

Democracy can work when everyone concerned knows one another, shares the same values and goals, and abhors any form of coercion. It is the natural way of accomplishing things among small groups. But once belief in democracy becomes a political ideology, it’s necessarily transformed into majority rule. And, at that point, the majority (or even a plurality, a minority, or an individual) can enforce their will on everyone else by claiming to represent the will of the people.

The only form of democracy that suits a free society is economic democracy in the laissez-faire form, where each person votes with his money for what he wants in the marketplace. Only then can every individual obtain what he wants without compromising the interests of any other person. That’s the polar opposite of the "economic democracy" of socialist pundits who have twisted the term to mean the political allocation of wealth. But many terms in politics wind up with inverted meanings. "Liberal" is certainly one of them.

The Spectrum of Politics: The terms liberal (left) and conservative (right) define the conventional political spectrum; the terms are floating abstractions with meanings that change with every politician.

In the 19th century, a liberal was someone who believed in free speech, social mobility, limited government, and strict property rights. The term has since been appropriated by those who, although sometimes still believing in limited free speech, always support strong government and weak property rights, and who see everyone as a member of a class or group.

Conservatives have always tended to believe in strong government and nation­alism. Bismarck and Metternich were archetypes. Today’s conservatives are some­times seen as defenders of economic liberty and free markets, although that is mostly true only when those concepts are perceived to coincide with the interests of big business and economic nationalism.

Bracketing political beliefs on an illogical scale, running only from left to right, results in constrained thinking. It is as if science were still attempting to define the elements with air, earth, water, and fire.

Politics is the theory and practice of government. It concerns itself with how force should be applied in controlling people, which is to say, in restricting their freedom. It should be analyzed on that basis. Since freedom is indivisible, it makes little sense to compartmentalize it; but there are two basic types of freedom: social and economic.

According to the current usage, liberals tend to allow social freedom, but restrict economic freedom, while conservatives tend to restrict social freedom and allow economic freedom. An authoritarian (they now sometimes class them­selves as "middle-of-the-roaders") is one who believes both types of freedom should be restricted.

But what do you call someone who believes in both types of freedom? Unfortunately, something without a name may get overlooked or, if the name is only known to a few, it may be ignored as unimportant. That may explain why so few people know they are libertarians.

A useful chart of the political spectrum would look like this:

A libertarian believes that individuals have a right to do anything that doesn’t impinge on the common-law rights of others, namely force or fraud. Libertarians are the human equivalent of the Gamma rat, which bears a little explanation.

Some years ago, scientists experimenting with rats categorized the vast major­ity of their subjects as Beta rats. These are basically followers who get the Alpha rats’ leftovers. The Alpha rats establish territories, claim the choicest mates, and generally lord it over the Betas. This pretty well-corresponded with the way the researchers thought the world worked. But they were surprised to find a third type of rat as well: the Gamma. This creature staked out a territory and chose the pick of the litter for a mate, like the Alpha, but didn’t attempt to dominate the Betas. A go-along-get-along rat. A libertarian rat, if you will.

My guess, mixed with a dollop of hope, is that as society becomes more repressive, more Gamma people will tune in to the problem and drop out as a solution. No, they won’t turn into middle-aged hippies practicing basket weaving and bead stringing in remote communes. Rather, they will structure their lives so that the government—which is to say taxes, regulations, and inflation—is a non-factor. Suppose they gave a war and nobody came? Suppose they gave an election and nobody voted, gave a tax and nobody paid, or imposed a regulation and nobody obeyed it?

Libertarian beliefs have a strong following among Americans, but the Liber­tarian Party has never gained much prominence, possibly because the type of people who might support it have better things to do with their time than vote. And if they believe in voting, they tend to feel they are "wasting" their vote on someone who can’t win. But voting is itself another part of the problem.

None of the Above; At least 95% of incumbents in Congress typically retain office. That is a higher proportion than in the Su­preme Soviet of the defunct USSR, and a lower turnover rate than in Britain’s hereditary House of Lords where people lose their seats only by dying. The political system in the United States has, like all systems which grow old and large, become moribund and corrupt. The conventional wisdom holds a decline in voter turnout is a sign of apathy. But it may also be a sign of a renaissance in personal responsibility. It could be people saying, "I won’t be fooled again, and I won’t lend power to them."

Politics has always been a way of redistributing wealth from those who produce to those who are politically favored. As H.L. Mencken observed, every election amounts to no more than an advance auction on stolen goods, a process few would support if they saw its true nature. Protesters in the 1960s had their flaws, but they were quite correct when they said, "If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem." If politics is the problem, what is the solution? I have an answer that may appeal to you.

The first step in solving the problem is to stop actively encouraging it. Many Americans have intuitively recognized that government is the problem and have stopped voting. There are at least five reasons many people do not vote:

1. Voting in a political election is unethical. The political process is one of institutionalized coercion and force. If you disapprove of those things, then you shouldn’t participate in them, even indirectly.

2. Voting compromises your privacy. It gets your name in another government computer database.

3. Voting, as well as registering, entails hanging around government offices and dealing with petty bureaucrats. Most people can find something more enjoyable or productive to do with their time.

4. Voting encourages politicians. A vote against one candidate - a major, and quite understandable, reason why many people vote - is always interpreted as a vote for his opponent. And even though you may be voting for the lesser of two evils, the lesser of two evils is still evil. It amounts to giving the candidate a tacit mandate to impose his will on society.

5. Your vote doesn’t count. Politicians like to say it counts because it is to their advantage to get everyone into a busybody mode. But, statistically, one vote in scores of millions makes no more difference than a single grain of sand on a beach. That’s entirely apart from the fact that officials manifestly do what they want, not what you want, once they are in office.

Some of these thoughts may impress you as vaguely "unpatriotic"; that is certainly not my intention. But, unfortunately, America isn’t the place it once was, either. The United States has evolved from the land of the free and the home of the brave to something more closely resembling the land of entitlements and the home of whining lawsuit filers.

The founding ideas of the country, which were highly libertarian, have been thoroughly distorted. What passes for tradition today is something against which the Founding Fathers would have led a second revolution. This sorry, scary state of affairs is one reason some people emphasize the importance of joining the process, "working within the system" and "making your voice heard," to ensure that "the bad guys" don’t get in. They seem to think that increasing the number of voters will improve the quality of their choices.

This argument compels many sincere people, who otherwise wouldn’t dream of coercing their neighbors, to take part in the political process. But it only feeds power to people in politics and government, validating their existence and making them more powerful in the process. Of course, everybody involved gets something out of it, psychologically if not monetarily. Politics gives people a sense of belonging to something bigger than themselves and so has special appeal for those who cannot find satisfaction within themselves.

We cluck in amazement at the enthusiasm shown at Hitler’s giant rallies but figure what goes on here, today, is different. Well, it’s never quite the same. But the mindless sloganeering, the cult of the personality, and a certainty of the masses that "their" candidate will kiss their personal lives and make them better are identical. And even if the favored candidate doesn’t help them, then at least he’ll keep others from getting too much. Politics is the institutionalization of envy, a vice which proclaims "You’ve got something I want, and if I can’t get one, I’ll take yours. And if I can’t have yours, I’ll destroy it so you can’t have it either." Participating in politics is an act of ethical bankruptcy.

The key to getting "rubes" (i.e., voters) to vote and "marks" (i.e., contribu­tors) to give is to talk in generalities while sounding specific and looking sincere and thoughtful, yet decisive. Vapid, venal party hacks can be shaped, like Silly Putty, into salable candidates. People like to kid themselves that they are voting for either "the man" or "the ideas." But few "ideas" are more than slogans artfully packaged to push the right buttons. Voting for "the man" doesn’t help much either since these guys are more diligently programmed, posed, and rehearsed than any actor.

This is probably more true today than it’s ever been since elections are now won on television, and television is not a forum for expressing complex ideas and philosophies. It lends itself to slogans and glib people who look and talk like game show hosts. People with really "new ideas" wouldn’t dream of introducing them to politics because they know ideas can’t be explained in 60 seconds.

I’m not intimating, incidentally, that people disinvolve themselves from their communities, social groups, or other voluntary organizations; just the opposite since those relationships are the lifeblood of society. But the political process, or government, is not synonymous with society or even complementary to it. Government is a dead hand on society.

So where does that leave us for the election coming up in a few days? It’s likely to be the most important one in the country’s history, including that of 1860. Unfortunately, no matter how you vote, it’s unlikely to head off what history likely has in store for us. Something wicked this way comes."

"Flying Blind: Clueless About Risk, We're Speeding Toward Systemic Failure"; A Comment

"Flying Blind: Clueless About Risk, 
We're Speeding Toward Systemic Failure"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"There's an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it. But alas, we don't, especially when the risk is invisible and systemic. We even misjudge extremely visible risk. People routinely die rushing to save someone who foolishly waded into fast-moving water a few yards above a waterfall. The rescue is clearly suicidal and doomed but they try anyway, doubling the tragedy by losing their own life.

We're prone to ignore risks that we've taken and gotten away with before: boat's overloaded and seas are rising? Hey, we've done this a hundred times and nothing bad ever happened. We overestimate our level of control. Don't worry, I got this... crash. And we overestimate our risk management skills, confident that the situation won't get away from us.

Systemic risk is difficult to isolate and analyze, so we're literally blind to it. It's not that we're blithely ignoring risk - we simply do not see it. We're flying blind through jagged mountain tops we can't see through the thick fog of false confidence.

There are several reasons for our innate difficulty in discerning risk. One I covered last year in "Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B" (December 4, 2019) is recency bias: the natural assumption that the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. This leads us to underestimate the risk of non-linear financial-economic dynamics.

Linear means increasing or decreasing inputs to the system generate equivalent outputs: doubling the input doubles the output, and so on. Non-linear means modest changes in inputs generate outsized changes in outputs. It's not easy to discern the potential for non-linear dynamics until they emerge, typically with surprising speed. This is why stock market crashes catch the vast majority of punters off-guard.

Central banks and governments have gone to extreme lengths to maintain the illusion of linearity, but these extreme measures have generated emergent properties beyond their control. This illusion of linearity implies a control of dynamics so perfect that no linear situation can ever become non-linear. This is the illusion of godlike control. In other words, we assume the authorities (The Federal Reserve, etc.) have godlike control which limits the risk of things spiraling out of control (i.e. non-linearity)

Another reason we're blind to risk is we naively assume risks add up like a grocery bill. Take a 5% of something bad happening, add another 5% risk and a third 5% risk, and the total risk we face is only 15% - hey, that's not much.

The problem is independent-variable risks don't add up, they compound. As correspondent A.P. explained to me recently: risks are independent variables with cumulative effects that are compounded, not additive. So the three variables, each with a 5% risk factor, pose a compounded risk far higher than 15%. In other words, we may view each risk factor as low and feel a false sense of safety because we failed to compound all the individually "low-risk" factors into a composite of risk, which could compound into a very high probability of something unexpectedly bad happening.

Then there's feedback, a dynamic I've discussed many times, most recently in "How Extremes Become More Extreme, Triggering Collapse" (August 28, 2020) Somewhat counter-intuitively, when feedback arises to moderate the intensity of a trend, that's negative feedback. When feedback intensifies the trend, it's positive feedback.

Why is this counter-intuitive? If a bad trend is moderated by negative feedback, that's good (positive). If a bad trend gathers momentum due to positive feedback, that's bad (negative). When an insect population explodes higher due to ideal conditions, birds and other predators feast on the over-supply, reducing the infestation. This negative feedback moderates the damage inflicted by the infestation.

If a rapidly expanding insect horde has few predators and its range and mobility increase with every generation, allowing it to find new food sources, this positive feedback enables a vast expansion in each generation - exactly what's we're witnessing with locusts.

Positive feedback leads to runaway systems, i.e. run to failure where the trend accelerates until the system collapses. If the system is isolated, then the damage might be contained. But if the system is interconnected with others, then its failure could trigger the collapse of other systems, either as a direct (first-order) effect or as an indirect (second-order) effect. In other words, in highly inter-connected systems, one failure can trigger a domino effect that can become non-linear once second-order effects manifest.

All of these dynamics are in play in America's healthcare system, which I discussed recently in "How Systems Collapse: Reaping What We've Sown" and "Everything We Assume Is Permanent Is Actually Fragile" (October 23, 2020).

Here's an example: the CDC reported that 1 in 16 health care personnel (HCP) contract Covid and require hospitalization. If the healthcare worker is older than 60 and/or has an underlying condition, the risks are much higher. At some point, these compounding risks will influence decisions.

Hospital administrators fearing wrongful-death lawsuits from over-60 staffers who contract the virus and die from complications may fire older staffers to limit their legal liability. Individual healthcare workers who are responsible for caring for elderly parents or children at home may conclude the risk of contracting Covid at work and suffering Long Covid debilitation outweighs the income from their job, and seek alternative employment with lower exposure to Covid patients.

The greater one's responsibility for physical care of dependents at home, the more devastating the impact of Covid hospitalization or long-term debilitation, and so at some point the risks of continuous exposure to Covid-infected patients are simply not worth it.

Given the prevalence of organ damage (heart, liver, etc.) even in asymptomatic carriers of Covid, older healthcare workers may conclude it's not worth the risks of permanent organ damage to continue exposure to Covid-infected patients, and so they may choose to retire early. Compound these decisions, add in feedback of rising hospitalizations and there's a rising risk of the illusion of linearity giving way to explosive non-linear run-to-failure. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it can't happen.

Lastly, the risks of drawing grandiose conclusions from limited data are largely invisible, too. This is one of the risks in the rushed vaccine trials currently underway. Please read "Covid-19 Vaccine Protocols Reveal That Trials Are Designed To Succeed" (Forbes.com) by William A. Haseltine before assuming the vaccine trials are accurate estimations of risks.

"One of the more immediate questions a trial needs to answer is whether a vaccine prevents infection. If someone takes this vaccine, are they far less likely to become infected with the virus? These trials all clearly focus on eliminating symptoms of Covid-19, and not infections themselves. Asymptomatic infection is listed as a secondary objective in these trials when they should be of critical importance.

It appears that all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection. Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms between an infected control group and an infected vaccine group. They do not measure the difference between infection and noninfection as a primary motivation.

A greater concern for the millions of older people and those with preexisting conditions is whether these trials test the vaccine's ability to prevent severe illness and death. Again we find that severe illness and death are only secondary objectives in these trials. None list the prevention of death and hospitalization as a critically important barrier."

For all the reasons listed in this post, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. Recency bias, belief in the illusion of linearity and the godlike powers of authorities, failure to properly compound risk variables and feedback, uncritical acceptance of limited data - any one of these is the equivalent of flying blind, without radar, through thick fog. Compounding all these factors is the equivalent of flying through thick fog at 5,000 feet straight toward the Rocky Mountains."
A Comment: We don't play games or use melodrama here, I don't care what you believe, but this video is in fact a very accurate metaphor for our present situation and the future consequences awaiting us all. It's going to get just that bad, folks, and nothing can stop it. Psychopathic human greed by the 1% and Wall St. has caused it, but the truth is we collectively didn't care or want to know, like stupid sheep contentedly and endlessly entertained with our faces in iPhones and other amusements, eager to believe the endless lies and propaganda from the government and Deep State military-industrial-complex who are our true rulers. US $27 trillion national debt and climbing rapidly, $212 trillion unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare etc, and the most absolutely horrifying of all - $2.4 QUADRILLION of global derivatives, which will crush the life out of the entire global economic/financial system when they fall. Why do you think they're so desperately pumping up the stock market? If they don't, if "value" falls too much it will trigger a tsunami of margin calls on all the trillions of dollars of stocks bought with 0%-interest borrowed money which will bring the whole derivatives mountain crashing down, so it's pump it up or die when the giant wave hits, and they know it. This can't and won't last forever. But nobody wants to hear any of that, do they? Do you? I don't either, but here's reality, folks, and there's no escaping these consequences, no matter what you or I choose to believe...  
- CP

Full screen mode recommended.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Musical Interlude: Two Steps From Hell, "Evergreen"

Two Steps From Hell, "Evergreen"

Must Watch! “Dow Jones -943; Wall St. Crashing?; Cash Crisis; Bank Closures; FED End Game”

Jeremiah Babe,
“Dow Jones -943; Wall St. Crashing?; Cash Crisis; 
Bank Closures; FED End Game”

And so it's begun. Prepare yourselves, and God help us all...

"Huge Storm Is Here: Tech Bubble Will Trigger A Catastrophic Stock Market Crash"

"Huge Storm Is Here:
 Tech Bubble Will Trigger A Catastrophic Stock Market Crash"
by Epic Economist

"The looming stock market crash is making investors worry like never before. Strategists believe the effects of the widespread lockdowns already unleashed several catalysts that have been quietly causing the stock market crash, and now, a change in mass psychology will likely depress the markets even further. 

In addition, experts warn the huge tech bubble has already popped, and its effects will potentially act as the Black Swan event needed to boost an unprecedented crash. In this video, we analyze the coming crash on the basis of the assessment of prominent authorities in the field. 

Stock markets continue to register record-highs, even though the real economy is still suffering. Given that the sanitary outbreak reminded the world how unexpected events can crush expectations very rapidly, investors have been arguing that a black swan event is about to reveal itself.

Despite the fact that the outbreak repercussions aren’t considered the biggest threat for the markets anymore, they have sparked a number of other triggers that are already silently causing the next stock market crash.

At the stage we're in right now, it's crystal clear that our economy is lagging behind the stock markets. The crash experienced in February and March and the second quarter of 2020 has created a massive deterioration in the economy that need to be assessed before even considering a retake to previous levels.

The most optimistic prospects point that it will take at the very least until 2022 for the US economy to see a significant recovery. In spite of such projections, stock markets keep rising and having more edge over the real economy. Why do they manage to stay that way? It's what a recent article answered and we analyze in this video. 

In short, the core problem is that markets have grown not because of a better economic landscape but due to the expectation that the federal government will continue to shoot liquidity injections all over the markets. But these packages don’t do more than keeping the patient alive for the time being. 

An additional source of cash is the money market funds, which envisions to maintain a highly stable asset base through liquid investments. The inflows into money market funds have steadily escalated and after the health crisis prompted widespread lockdowns, another shift of capital happened into money market funds. That is to say, the money overflow inside the stock markets created the substantial distortions seen by the end of February. 

Furthermore, private investors demand for shares has been spiraling upwards, which makes the perfect scenario for a self-fulfilling prophecy. This parabolic investor ascent towards the top is a warning sign pointing that the stock market indeed inside of a bubble. 

A Nobel-winning economist has outlined that amid another spike in infection cases and a chaotic political scenery could "shake people up", and any resemblance between the market now and the market before previous crashes could "create a psychological sense of the risk."

According to his index, an overwhelming majority of investors said there was a greater than 10 percent probability of an imminent crash - really, a remarkable indicator that people are quite worried.  Since the market is now similarly valued as during the stages that preceded the Great Depression and the dot-com bubble, some commentators are comparing this bubble to the prior one, but bubbles will never be exactly the same.

Bubbles tend to topple under their own weight, that’s why chief strategist David Einhorn points out that the enormous tech bubble already popped on September 2, the day the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both hit an all-time high. 

When a downfall starts, the psychology shifts from greed to complacency to worry to panic. Now, investor sentiment is in the process of shifting from greed to complacency. Considering that 5 major tech companies are the ones supporting the entire market right now, the silent pop of the tech bubble might be the black swan event that will trigger a catastrophic stock market crash."

Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/28/20: "Alert! CARNAGE On Wall Street, And The Time For Unity Is NOW"

 

Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/28/20:
"Alert! CARNAGE On Wall Street, And The Time For Unity Is NOW"

Musical Interlude: 2002, "The End Is a Beginning"

2002, "The End Is a Beginning"

Full screen mode highly recommended.

"A Look to the Heavens"

"No, hamburgers are not this big. What is pictured is a sharp telescopic view of a magnificent edge-on spiral galaxy NGC 3628, a puffy galactic disk divided by dark dust lanes. Of course, this deep galactic portrait puts some astronomers in mind of its popular moniker, The Hamburger Galaxy.

The tantalizing island universe is about 100,000 light-years across and 35 million light-years away in the northern springtime constellation Leo. NGC 3628 shares its neighborhood in the local Universe with two other large spirals M65 and M66 in a grouping otherwise known as the Leo Triplet. Gravitational interactions with its cosmic neighbors are likely responsible for the extended flare and warp of this spiral's disk.”

“Taking A Break From What You Are Doing”

“Taking A Break From What You Are Doing”
by Madisyn Taylor, The DailyOM

“Sometimes finding the answer is as easy as taking a break and stepping back from the situation. Sometimes we can get so wrapped up in our thoughts that we wind up going round in round in circles, finding it difficult to concentrate on things and, because we are so distracted, not really accomplishing much. There may be signals - mental, emotional, and physical - that tell us we need to slow down and relax. Since we are so involved in things that are external to us, however, we may easily overlook what is really going on inside of us. It is during these times that we need to step back from the things that occupy our minds and take time out to connect with our inner self, giving our minds, bodies, and spirits the time they need to reenergize and heal.

At first it may seem that by taking a break we may not be as productive as we would initially like. In reality, a healthy period of rest is something that gives us a real sense of the unlimited nature of our true potential. Spending a couple of minutes walking outside, doing a few yoga poses, meditating, or simply becoming attuned to the rising and falling of our breath enables us to let go of our worries. This act brings our focus back to the things that are truly essential for us, such as our sense of oneness with the universe and our inner peace and well-being. As we begin to get in touch with this part of ourselves, we will find that our usual everyday troubles and worries become less critical and that we not only have much more room in our lives to really reflect on the issues that mean the most to us, but we are also able bring to all the situations we encounter a much more positive and healthy outlook.

Giving ourselves respite from our daily concerns is like giving a gift to ourselves. By stepping away from the problems that seem to saturate our thoughts, we lessen the weight of our troubles and instead become more receptive to the wisdom and answers the universe has to offer us.”

"Sometimes, in a summer morning, having taken my accustomed bath, I sat in my sunny doorway from sunrise till noon, rapt in a revery, amidst the pines and hickories and sumachs, in undisturbed solitude and stillness, while the birds sing around or flitted noiseless through the house, until by the sun falling in at my west window, or the noise of some traveller's wagon on the distant highway, I was reminded of the lapse of time. I grew in those seasons like corn in the night, and they were far better than any work of the hands would have been. They were not time subtracted from my life, but so much over and above my usual allowance. I realized what the Orientals mean by contemplation and the forsaking of works. For the most part, I minded not how the hours went. The day advanced as if to light some work of mine; it was morning, and lo, now it is evening, and nothing memorable is accomplished."
- Henry David Thoreau  

The Poet: Derek Mahon, "Everything Is Going to Be All Right"

"Everything Is Going to Be All Right"

"How should I not be glad to contemplate
the clouds clearing beyond the dormer window
and a high tide reflected on the ceiling?
There will be dying, there will be dying,
but there is no need to go into that.
The poems flow from the hand unbidden
and the hidden source is the watchful heart.
The sun rises in spite of everything
and the far cities are beautiful and bright.
I lie here in a riot of sunlight
watching the day break and the clouds flying.
Everything is going to be all right."

~ Derek Mahon,
"Collected Poems"

"So We All Ran Around..."

“So we all ran around in mad, mindless, meaningless circles, as if we were in a cotton-candy eating contest where the grand prize was getting kicked in the face. We were oblivious to everything around us that no truly sane person would ever tolerate. And we needed someone else to tell us to stop it.”
- Edward M. Wolfe

"The Holstee Manifesto"


"The Holstee Manifesto: Lifecycle Video"
Full screen mode recommended.