Monday, September 28, 2020

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “I Worried”

 “I Worried”

“ I worried a lot. Will the garden grow, 
will the rivers flow in the right direction, 
will the earth turn as it was taught,
 and if not how shall I correct it?

Was I right, was I wrong, will I be forgiven,
can I do better?
Will I ever be able to sing, even the sparrows
can do it and I am, well, hopeless.
Is my eyesight fading or am I just imagining it,
am I going to get rheumatism, lockjaw, dementia?

Finally I saw that worrying had come to nothing.
And gave it up. And took my old body
and went out into the morning, and sang.”

- Mary Oliver

"Fast Time and the Aging Mind"

"Fast Time and the Aging Mind"
By Richard A. Friedman

"Ah, the languorous days of endless summer! Who among us doesn’t remember those days and wonder wistfully where they’ve gone? Why does time seem to speed up as we age? Even the summer solstice — the longest, sunniest day of the year — seems to have passed in a flash. No less than the great William James opined on the matter, thinking that the apparent speed of time’s passage was a result of adults’ experiencing fewer memorable events: “Each passing year converts some of this experience into automatic routine which we hardly note at all, the days and the weeks smooth themselves out in recollection to contentless units, and the years grow hollow and collapse.”

Don’t despair. I am happy to tell you that the apparent velocity of time is a big fat cognitive illusion and happy to say there may be a way to slow the velocity of our later lives.

Although the sense that we perceive time as accelerating as we age is very common, it is hard to prove experimentally. In one of the largest studies to date, Dr. Marc Wittmann of the Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health, in Germany, interviewed 499 German and Austrian subjects ranging in age from 14 to 94 years; he asked each subject how quickly time seemed to pass during the previous week, month, year and decade. Surprisingly, there were few differences related to age. With one exception: when researchers asked the subjects about the 10-year interval, older subjects were far more likely than the younger subjects to report that the last decade had passed quickly.

Other, non-age-related factors influence our perception of time. Recent research shows that emotions affect our perception of time. For example, Dr. Sylvie Droit-Volet, a psychology professor at Blaise Pascal University, in France, manipulated subjects’ emotional state by showing them movies that excited fear or sadness and then asked them to estimate the duration of the visual stimulus. She found that time appears to pass more slowly when we are afraid.

Attention and memory play a part in our perception of time. To accurately gauge the passage of time required to accomplish a given task, you have to be able to focus and remember a sequence of information. That’s partly why someone with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder has trouble judging time intervals and grows impatient with what seems like the slow passage of time. The neurotransmitter dopamine is critically important to our ability to process time. Stimulants like Ritalin and Adderall, which increase dopamine function in the brain, have the effect of speeding up time perception; antipsychotic drugs, which block dopamine receptors, have the opposite effect.

On the whole, most of us perceive short intervals of time similarly, regardless of age. Why, then, do older people look back at long stretches of their lives and feel it’s a race to the finish? Here’s a possible answer: think about what it’s like when you learn something for the first time — for example how, when you are young, you learn to ride a bike or navigate your way home from school. It takes time to learn new tasks and to encode them in your memory. And when you are learning about the world for the first time, you are forming a fairly steady stream of new memories of events, places and people.

When, as an adult, you look back at your childhood experiences, they appear to unfold in slow motion probably because the sheer number of them gives you the impression that they must have taken forever to acquire. So when you recall the summer vacation when you first learned to swim or row a boat, it feels endless. But this is merely an illusion, the way adults understand the past when they look through the telescope of lost time. This, though, is not an illusion: almost all of us faced far steeper learning curves when we were young. Most adults do not explore and learn about the world the way they did when they were young; adult life lacks the constant discovery and endless novelty of childhood.

Studies have shown that the greater the cognitive demands of a task, the longer its duration is perceived to be. Dr. David Eagleman at Baylor College of Medicine found that repeated stimuli appear briefer in duration than novel stimuli of equal duration. Is it possible that learning new things might slow down our internal sense of time?

The question and the possibility it presents put me in mind of my father, who died a few years ago at age 86. An engineer by training, he read constantly after he retired. His range was enormous; he read about everything from astronomy to natural history, travel and gardening. I remember once discovering dozens of magazines and journals in the house and was convinced that my parents had become the victims of a mail-order scam. Thinking I’d help with the clutter, I began to bundle up the magazines for recycling when my father angrily confronted me, demanding to know what the hell I was doing. “I read all of these,” he said.

And then it dawned on me. I cannot recall his ever having remarked on how fast or slow his life seemed to be going. He was constantly learning, always alive to new ideas and experience. Maybe that’s why he never seemed to notice that time was passing.

So what, you might say, if we have an illusion about time speeding up? But it matters, I think, because the distortion signals that we might squeeze more out of life.

It’s simple: if you want time to slow down, become a student again. Learn something that requires sustained effort; do something novel. Put down the thriller when you’re sitting on the beach and break out a book on evolutionary theory or Spanish for beginners or a how-to book on something you’ve always wanted to do. Take a new route to work; vacation at an unknown spot. And take your sweet time about it."
Richard A. Friedman is a professor of clinical psychiatry and the director of the psycho-pharmacology clinic at the Weill Cornell Medical College.

“One Last Smile For My Old Friend”

Full screen mode suggested.
“One Last Smile For My Old Friend”
by Iain Burns

“This is the magical moment a dying chimpanzee recognizes her old friend and gives him an emotional farewell. Mama, the 59-year-old former matriarch at Royal Burgers Zoo in the Netherlands, was curled up in a ball and refusing food until the arrival of Professor Jan van Hooff, who she had known since 1972. At first she did not realize that her old friend had come to see her and remained on the floor as he stroked her. But her bond with Professor van Hooff – who co-founded her chimp colony at the Arnhem zoo – was deep enough to shake her from her gloom. The terminally ill chimp, who was fast approaching the end of her life, can be seen reacting with pure joy when she realizes who has come to see her. Mama screeched with delight and beamed with a smile while greeting the professor. Screeching with pleasure and smiling in delight, Mama can be seen stretching out her hand and stroking Professor van Hooff’s head in greeting. The video was filmed in April 2016. Mama died just a week after giving her old friend a heartfelt farewell.”

"We Were Wrong About Everything"

"We Were Wrong About Everything"
by Mark Manson

"Each week, I send you three potentially life-changing ideas to help you be a slightly less awful human being. This week, we’re talking about: 1) logical fallacies and how they’re the reason we can’t have nice things, 2) The Backfire Effect, or why more information makes us more polarized, and 3) things I’ve changed my mind about. Let’s get into it.

1. Logical fallacies - Readers often ask me where I get the ideas to write what I write. I think sometimes they expect some elaborate system with trunks full of notecards and some indexing software with an algorithm that cross-references everything I’ve ever read with a collection of cocktail napkins I’ve scribbled on.

It’s actually far simpler than that. I get hundreds of emails from readers per day. At some point, I start noticing patterns in those emails - people with similar problems, or people who make similar mistakes. These emails pile up and eventually I get sick of writing the same response over and over and say, "F**k it, let’s do an article."

One article I’ve wanted to do for months now is about logical fallacies - errors in reasoning and assumptions we make when we’re arguing about something. Given it’s 2020 and sh*t is hitting the fan and more people are emailing me crazy arguments than ever before, I figured an article on logic was long overdue. Check it out: "8 Logical Fallacies that Mess Us All Up" (or read it in the iOS app)

Logic doesn't usually cause people to need to change their underwear, but I hope you brought a spare pair anyway. It's an incredibly important but hugely under-read topic, so I sprinkled on some Manson flavoring for you. After all, tightening our reasoning skills prevents us from believing stupid things that are then pushed onto other people. Similarly, understanding logic helps defend us from other people’s bad ideas which, if you’ve ever used the internet, you might have noticed there are a few of them floating around out there.

2. When More Information Makes Things Worse - Last week, I wrote about how I believe social media gets blamed for what is actually just the sh*ttier aspects of human nature scaled across fast information networks known as the "internet." Actually, that’s what I tried to argue but I don’t think it came out that well. Some readers pushed back saying that even though social media may not be responsible for the litany of mental health and social problems that it gets blamed for, it’s still responsible for public discourse devolving into a cesspool of trolls, flame wars, and Twitter mobs.

In fact, Tristan Harris, the main focal point of the new Netflix documentary "The Social Dilemma," came out this week and said: "The only source of information for most people now is a machine that is designed to partially inform people, misinform people, spread conspiracy theories, and lies faster than facts."

And this is where I want to try my argument again because I think what Harris says is inaccurate. Social media algorithms do not manipulate and push users into believing awful things. People already believe the awful things and social media simply spreads them more easily. Critics like Harris imply that tech companies are sitting in Silicon Valley scheming for ways to extract more ad dollars from people’s anxiety and misinformation.

That’s a caricature of what really happens. Social media does not make us worse people. We already were terrible people. Rather, social media is the mirror that made that terribleness more widespread and apparent for everyone to see.

This is what I tried to say last week: we are not victims of some evil algorithms that cause us to think and feel in flawed ways. We think and feel in flawed ways already, the algorithms simply amplify those flaws like never before. This is why I wrote in "Everything is F*cked: A Book About Hope" that eventually, we will need algorithms that can compensate for our inherent psychological flaws, rather than simply reflect them back at us.

There are flaws in the idea that if Twitter and Facebook just showed better information, everything would be fine. How do I know this? Researchers have already tested it. A couple of years ago, researchers at the University of North Carolina ran an experiment. They took people with left-wing beliefs and right-wing beliefs and exposed them to opposing viewpoints on Twitter for a month. In all, they were exposed to over 700 messages and articles of viewpoints that differed from their own. At the end of the month, the researchers went back and surveyed the people again to see if their political views had become more moderate. They had not. In fact, they had become even more polarized than they were before.

This phenomenon has become known as "the backfire effect" - when people are exposed to information that challenges their current beliefs, they do not surrender their current beliefs. Instead, people become more convinced that they are right and others are wrong. In this way, it is possible that giving people more information and access to a wider diversity of ideas does not moderate beliefs or bring people together, but rather it fragments them and drives them apart further.

That’s not social media’s fault. That’s just human nature. Sure, Big Tech has profited off of it. But they also recognize the problem and have been quietly working towards addressing it. After all, destabilizing modern society and generating political crises is not good for any business.

3. What I’ve changed my mind about - In the spirit of challenging the natural tendency to double-down on false beliefs and remove the social stigma from changing one’s mind, I mentioned a few weeks ago that I wanted to periodically admit things that I have been wrong about and/or changed my mind about. I want to do this because I believe developing a culture where this is admired or at least respected is incredibly important if we’re going to survive in this day and age. So I encourage you to do it yourself periodically, as well.

Here’s what I’ve been wrong about:

• In crises, leadership matters. For a number of years, I’ve written that people focus too much on leaders they don’t like and instead ignore the larger social trends that are often dictating leaders’ unsavory behavior. I wrote this originally about Trump but it could have been written about many leaders around the world. I argued that leaders have less influence than people perceive. Well, what I didn’t realize when I wrote that was that this is probably only true in good times. When a crisis hits, leadership matters far more. Basic decisions of prioritization have widespread consequences. People look to someone to guide them morally and emotionally. And if your leader sucks, then shit is going to get bad. This is doubly painful because it’s often in crises that the biggest leaps in progress are made. Yet if you have incompetent leadership, that progress never comes, and you inevitably fall behind.

• Lockdowns are probably not effective. The data is in and a country’s ability to cope with the pandemic seems to have very little to do with how strict their quarantine was and far more to do with social norms (mask-wearing, distancing, etc.), population density, geography, and other, far more important policies around testing and tracing. In fact, widespread cheap testing and contact tracing seem to be the most effective policies and yet, in many countries, they are emphasized the least.

• I have not changed my mind about vaccines, but after enough emails from vaccine-skeptical readers, I have learned about various risks and policy errors associated with vaccines that I was not aware of before. I now understand some of the criticisms that are made and why some people are skeptical of using them for their families. That said, full-blown anti-vaxxers are still morons. It’s like refusing to ever wear a seatbelt because occasionally they’re installed incorrectly by car manufacturers and hurt people. The understanding of risk/reward is nonsensical. I still believe that vaccines have saved hundreds of millions of lives. And barring exceptional circumstances, you and your loved ones should still get them.

Also, some previous beliefs of mine that have been strengthened this year, in no particular order:
• Science and data should lead to policy decisions as much as possible. 

• Culture is quietly one of the most influential variables in determining the outcomes for populations, even though it is more taboo than ever to talk about it.

• A healthy and conscious attention diet is more important than ever before.

• The institutions in the US are more intractable and inefficient than even I had previously thought and it appears that things will likely have to get much worse here before they get better.

There are others, but let’s stop there before I start depressing everybody. This hasn't been a mind-changer per se, but the more time that goes on, the more convinced I become that many of the social ills that we associate with technology today are actually borne out of a deep, fundamental loneliness that has been generations in the making. I know that's not a very concrete observation, but it's where my intellectual nose is at. Until next week..."

The Daily "Near You?"

 

Tofino, British Columbia, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"We Were Made For These Times "

"We Were Made For These Times "
by Clarissa Pinkola Estes

"My friends, do not lose heart. We were made for these times. I have heard from so many recently who are deeply and properly bewildered. They are concerned about the state of affairs in our world now. Ours is a time of almost daily astonishment and often righteous rage over the latest degradations of what matters most to civilized, visionary people. 

You are right in your assessments. The lustre and hubris some have aspired to while endorsing acts so heinous against children, elders, everyday people, the poor, the unguarded, the helpless, is breathtaking. Yet, I urge you, ask you, gentle you, to please not spend your spirit dry by bewailing these difficult times. Especially do not lose hope. Most particularly because, the fact is that we were made for these times. Yes. For years, we have been learning, practicing, been in training for and just waiting to meet on this exact plain of engagement. 

I grew up on the Great Lakes and recognize a seaworthy vessel when I see one. Regarding awakened souls, there have never been more able vessels in the waters than there are right now across the world. And they are fully provisioned and able to signal one another as never before in the history of humankind. 

Look out over the prow; there are millions of boats of righteous souls on the waters with you. Even though your veneers may shiver from every wave in this stormy roil, I assure you that the long timbers composing your prow and rudder come from a greater forest. That long-grained lumber is known to withstand storms, to hold together, to hold its own, and to advance, regardless. 

In any dark time, there is a tendency to veer toward fainting over how much is wrong or unmended in the world. Do not focus on that. There is a tendency, too, to fall into being weakened by dwelling on what is outside your reach, by what cannot yet be. Do not focus there. That is spending the wind without raising the sails. 

We are needed, that is all we can know. And though we meet resistance, we more so will meet great souls who will hail us, love us and guide us, and we will know them when they appear. Ours is not the task of fixing the entire world all at once, but of stretching out to mend the part of the world that is within our reach. Any small, calm thing that one soul can do to help another soul, to assist some portion of this poor suffering world, will help immensely. It is not given to us to know which acts or by whom, will cause the critical mass to tip toward an enduring good. 

What is needed for dramatic change is an accumulation of acts, adding, adding to, adding more, continuing. We know that it does not take everyone on Earth to bring justice and peace, but only a small, determined group who will not give up during the first, second, or hundredth gale. 

One of the most calming and powerful actions you can do to intervene in a stormy world is to stand up and show your soul. Soul on deck shines like gold in dark times. The light of the soul throws sparks, can send up flares, builds signal fires, causes proper matters to catch fire. To display the lantern of soul in shadowy times like these, to be fierce and to show mercy toward others; both are acts of immense bravery and greatest necessity. 

Struggling souls catch light from other souls who are fully lit and willing to show it. If you would help to calm the tumult, this is one of the strongest things you can do. 

There will always be times when you feel discouraged. I too have felt despair many times in my life, but I do not keep a chair for it. I will not entertain it. It is not allowed to eat from my plate.  The reason is this: In my uttermost bones I know something, as do you. It is that there can be no despair when you remember why you came to Earth, who you serve, and who sent you here. The good words we say and the good deeds we do are not ours. They are the words and deeds of the One who brought us here. In that spirit, I hope you will write this on your wall: When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for." 

Dr Clarissa Pinkola Estes is an American poet, post-trauma specialist and Jungian psychoanalyst, and the author of "Women Who Run With the Wolves." 

"Galloping Ghosts"

"Galloping Ghosts"
by Ken Grant

"Yup, Gotta say a few words about Gale. Galloping Gale. Who galloped off and left us this past week. But first a point of clarification. Gale Sayers was not the Galloping Ghost. That moniker belongs to a Chicago Bear of an even earlier vintage (back when they wore leather helmets, embraced, rather than avoided, concussions, and when the term “going both ways” referred exclusively to a footballer who played both offense and defense): Red Grange. Running Back and Defensive Back. The Original Galloping Ghost. Maybe the only one. That is, until Galloping Gale shed his mortal coil. Perhaps now there are two Galloping Ghosts; maybe not. I don’t decide these things you know.

Never saw Red play but was a huge fan of Gale’s. The way I would describe him would be as follows: he was the Jimi Hendrix of the NFL – running with riffs that nobody could imagine, much less replicate – before or since. For me (and in retrospect), when he blew out his knee in ’69, it marked the beginning of the end of the Sixties. The Beatles announced their breakup that month. Sayers returned, a shell of himself, in 1970, which of course was the year Hendrix died.

Now he’s galloped away (this time for good), and America, Chicago in particular, shed many tears. It’s been a tough month in Chicago, kicked off by the shuttering of the iconic Palmer House Hotel, which had been hosting the hoity toity, dating back to a time when the hoity toity’s main residences were caves.

Didn’t think it could be toe-tagged, but, these days, the unthinkable is exactly what goes down. And it’s been a tough month all around. As is widely known, September is, historically, the worst lunar cycle for equity valuations. And this year (even if with respect to nothing else) has followed script. The Gallant 500 is down a decidedly ungallant 5.7% at the point of this correspondence, and this after Friday’s 160 basis point rally. Captain Naz, up >2% on Friday, was knocking on the door of a double digit, month-to-date drop the night before.

Still and all, Friday’s rally was heartening to observe – particularly as it transpired during the penultimate trading session to Yom Kippur – 5781 – which should feature a respectable amount of fasting, (hopefully) a passel of repentance, and (presumably) not much trading activity. It should also be noted that the sands of Q3/2020 (Julian Calendar) are running low, and, as such, ‘tis the season for some enthusiastic tape painting. If so, protocol suggests a bid through at least Tuesday 9/29 (decorum demands that one refrain from this unholy exercise on the final day of the period).

But because we’re talking football here, I’d say Friday surge, perhaps set to bleed into early next week, was an exercise of running up the score. And, on the whole, I think, absent a further ignominious retreat over the remaining three sessions, the quarterly performance is one that should please us. The G500 gained ~6.4% of third quarter yardage, through some occasionally fierce pressure from the other side. The tape may feel heavy at the moment, but perhaps we should bear in mind the conditions that prevailed coming into the sequence on July 1.

Covid was breaking out aggressively in geographic regions, where, based on climate alone, the defense was thought to have been the strongest. The country was, in near-full-scale lockdown, including in such improbable jurisdictions as Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and all of the Great State of Maine.

Social unrest was in full crescendo, barely five weeks after that cockroach cop cut off George Floyd’s coratid artery. The smart money was proclaiming – heaven help us -- that the NFL season itself would never transpire. So, from that perspective, and looking forward from July 1st, would any investor not have rushed in to lock down a 6.4% index gain? I think not.

So why, in heaven’s name, does everything feel worse right now? Like our offensive line is failing to create even the miniscule amount of daylight required for Grange or Sayers to bust off a big one? It requires little imagination or cognitive effort to understand the fear and gloom. All of our most dreaded risk factors are fully in play. No clarity on the trajectory of the Public Health crisis. Domestic politics are a complete sh!t show and likely to get worse. But let’s throw the Big Dog a bone here (Big Dog’s gotta eat, right?), and focus, for an instant, on credit.

The recent statistics are beyond terrifying – give off a feeling that must be akin to what the Citadel Bulldogs must have felt like coming out of the tunnel to face #1 Clemson. The final was 49-0 – a whupping that can only be characterized as merciful, considering that the latter pulled most of its starters in the beginning of the second quarter.

And, in terms of credit markets, the following two graphs tell the tale. First, last week, the Bank for International Settlements released its Q1 Debt to GDP estimates:

Click image for larger size.

So, the world, as measured in GDP terms, is 30% more into The Man than it was heading into the ’08 crash. And here, it’s important to bear in mind that the series ends on March 31, 2020; we won’t know the tallies for Q2 for many weeks. Anyone want to take The Under on another surge? Didn’t think so.

Now we move to issues of solvency, and here, though it shames me to do so, I am forced to revert to a graphic I lifted from – of all places – this week’s Barron’s (via Bloomberg):

Click image for larger size.

I know this ratio is a bit obtuse, even to me. To the best of my understanding, an interest rate coverage level of < 1 implies that the enterprise’s entire year’s earnings is less than its annual vig. Let us hope that the lenders are more understanding here than, say, what is thought to be the attitude of the hard guys in Jersey City. And again, bear in mind that these statistics only take us through 3/31 – when lockdowns were said to be a fortnight’s operation; before we reached the definitive conclusion that the American economy was formed and continues to operate, principally, as a means to perpetuate race- based economic inequality. Neither metric, at any rate, is likely to improve over the near term.

But don’t you despair, my lovelies. Daddy’s indeed gonna buy you that diamond ring. The credit situation is so dire that the Central Banks will be forced to put their magic printing machines into overdrive. They’ve bailed us out thus far in 2020 (I don’t even want to think about where we’d be if they hadn’t) and must continue on, This here debt monetization thus ain’t over; in fact, it’s just beginning.

But we’re gonna have to be patient before these goodies come our way, and some of us may take a pounding in the interim. Hopefully, we won’t blow out a knee like Sayers, because we’re gonna need that knee to lean on during The National Anthem. Don’t ask me why; don’t know. But kneel we will. Kneeling won’t save us – not in this world or the next – but when did that ever stop us?

And now I fear it’s time for me to gallop away myself. Not like my hero Sayers, or even like the Old Gangster Sayre. But in my own way. At my own pace. You may not recognize it as a gallop, but it’s the closest I can come. And I think we should be generous with one another as to what, in the first instance, constitutes a gallop, which I believe differs for each and every one of us. For some, it is more of a lumber; for others, it generates six touchdowns on twelve touches, playing for a team that finished the season 1-13.

So, gallop with me, won’t you? Even if you have to stifle your gait to do so. And whatever else you do, please, please, please, don’t give up the ghost."

"Hope..."

 

“Hope is always about the future. And it isn’t always good news. Sometimes, hope can imprison us with belief or expectation that something will happen in the future to change our lives. Similarly hopelessness isn’t always about despair. Hopelessness can bring us right into this very moment and answer all of life’s most difficult questions. Who am I? Where am I? What does this mean? And what now?”
- Daniel Gottlieb

"Dumb Enough to Be President"

"Dumb Enough to Be President"
By Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "One of the most galling features of capitalism, generally… and America’s degenerate version, especially… is that there is often little connection between brains, work, and wealth. Luck plays a huge role. Mark Cuban, for example, must be one of the luckiest people on the planet. He started a dot-com-ish business in the 1990s. By 1999, it had revenues edging towards $100 million. That should have entitled him to a modest payday. Instead, at the height of the dot-com bubble, he sold out to Yahoo! for $5.7 billion. Then, with the Big Score under his belt… Cuban became a famous person. And now, he’s aiming for another Big Score, this time in politics.

Something Stupid: Hardly a day goes by that someone famous doesn’t say something remarkably stupid – and the media reports it with a straight face. Last week, it was Mr. Cuban’s turn. Of course, he makes the news almost every week. He’s a serial newsmaker – an entrepreneur… an inventor… a rich guy… a big mouth… a TV personality… a celebrity… and a sometimes-even-mentioned-as-a-presidential-candidate. But we’re suspicious of anyone who is that accomplished. In our experience, it takes a lifetime to learn any trade. And even then, you come to the end, and you realize that you don’t know the half of it.

Maybe we’re just slow. Or maybe Mr. Cuban spreads his talents a little too thin. Here’s CNN’s report on Mark Cuban’s latest brainstorm: "Mark Cuban is once again pushing the idea that every American household should receive $1,000 bi-weekly stimulus checks for the next two months.[…] Cuban suggests a “use or lose it” approach, where Americans would have to spend the funds within 10 days or they would lose the money. The approach is rooted in promoting spending to help stimulate the economy.

“The whole goal is to get that money every two weeks into the economy,” Cuban said. “Once businesses start having demand, even if they’re closed and working online, then there is a reason for them to be able to bring back employees and retain those employees if demand is sustained.”

Forced Spending: Fifty years ago, would anyone – other than an unhinged fantasist – have dared to suggest such a thing? Would the newspapers have bothered to report it? Probably not. But today, we have more billionaires and lower standards. In the boom years, people spent money they didn’t have buying things they didn’t need. And now, Cuban proposes to make it a matter of government policy.

You can’t argue with his logic – as far as it goes. If it makes sense to give people fake money in order to stimulate the economy, why not give them more of it? And then, if people really get richer by buying things they don’t need with money they don’t have… why not force them to do it? But what will happen when the feds stop giving people money? What will happen to the “demand” that Cuban thinks he is stimulating? It will come to a stop, of course… resulting in an even worse calamity.

It is as if Cuban – and millions of others – doesn’t bother to think further ahead than the 24-hour news cycle. Give people $1,000 every two weeks? Require that they spend it? $2,000 a month? Free money? Many people probably heard the proposal and wished Mr. Cuban were president already. But he’ll get his chance.

Most likely, the next four years are going to be full of political chaos, social discord, and economic calamity. Whoever wins the next election will have a rough row to hoe. And come the following election, voters will be looking for a change. Snowflakes, world-improvers, and Mark Cuban will come forward.

Here at the Diary, we do not get involved in politics. But we hope Cuban gets lucky again. He is an idiot, of course. But the U.S. is headed through a dark passage, like an alcoholic’s final binge. Going “Full Cuban” – that is to say, drinking straight from the bottle – might help us hit bottom sooner."

"How It Really Is Getting To Be"

"Market Fantasy Updates 9/28/20"

"Market Fantasy Updates 9/28/20" 
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"The more I see of the monied classes, 
the better I understand the guillotine."
George Bernard Shaw
Gregory Mannarino,
AM 9/28/20: "Critical Market Updates"

"Harken, The Covidean Creed..."

"Harken, The Covidean Creed..."
by Ian Jenkins 

"Harken, The Covidean Creed... as agreed at The Unholy Conclave at Davos...

We believe in one Virus, the SARS-COV-2, the Almighty, destroyer of heaven and earth, that is all there is, seen and unseen.

We believe in one Malady, Covid-19, the only son of SARS-COV-2, eternally begotten of the Virus, God from God, Darkness from Darkness, true God from true God, begotten, not made (probably) of one Being with the Virus.

For diseases are they none but the One True Virus and Death comes not without Its presence. Thou shalt have no diseases before the One True Virus. They that die outside the Virus shall not have their passing told unto the people on a quotidian basis in hushed tones, but shall be quietly recorded in obscure tables when the time comes.

Through the Virus all things were unmade.

For us men (and women and all points in between) and for our damnation
It came down from heaven (or maybe from China or Maryland):
By the power of the Holy WHO
It became incarnate from the swirling microbes (or maybe bat soup through immaculate Zoonosis), and was made Pandemic.

For Its sake we were crucified under ongoing Lockdown;
It suffered not death, like unto most it afflicteth, and is never buried in the news.
Though by the evidence that appeareth on those who do pass away or wax sick, it hath waned to almost nought.

On the second wave It rose again,
And though few did perish many were tested and lo! Many were deemed infected (probably) and ‘cases’ were they named, though sickness showed they none,
in accordance with the Great Plan;
It ascended into the collective consciousness
and is seated on the right and left hand of all (lest with sanitizer they do anoint themselves five score times hourly)

It will come again in glory, as many times as necessary to convince the living and the dead, and his mask’d kingdom will have no end, it seemeth.

We believe in the Unholy pathogen, the Lord Rona, the taker of life (for they that are vulnerable), though he passeth the children by,
who proceeds from the laboratory and the test.
With the quest for a Vaccine, the donning of the Holy Mask and with sequestration of the faithful he is worshipped and glorified and Its name kept alive in the minds of all.

It hath spoken through ‘The Science’ and thereafter through the Media, through Potentates and Rulers and through the scriptures of the WEF and of the foundations and think-tanks that do proclaim Its Gospel.

Woe to they who do speak out against the words of the Powers of Covid or their servants, for they shall be anathema and their names removed from the Book of Face and platform shall they have none. One shall they be made with they that aver the Earth to be flat and Conspiracy Theorists shall they be named.

We believe in one unholy Catastrophic and Technocratic Global Church.
We acknowledge one Great Reset for the salvation of all.

We look in vain for the resurrection of Reason, Proportionality and Democracy,
and towards the life of the New World to come.

Amen."

"Covid-19 Pandemic Update 9/28/20"

 


SEP 28, 2020 1:04 AM ET:
 Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak 
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 33,097,000 
people, according to official counts, including 7,139,301 Americans.

      SEP 28, 2020 1:04 AM ET: 
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
Updated 9/28/20, 2:23 AM ET
Click image for larger size.

"Goodbye To All That: Are Our Rituals of "Prosperity" Increasingly Meaningless?"

"Goodbye To All That: 
Are Our Rituals of 'Prosperity' Increasingly Meaningless?"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"Of all the economic heresies imaginable, perhaps the most heretical is to recognize what we label "prosperity" as increasingly meaningless rituals more akin with Soviet-era staged parades than actual well-being. This is the most dangerous heresy because it breaks the link between consumption - the core activity of our economy - and human happiness. If conspicuous/surplus consumption is ritualistic rather than fulfilling (i.e. it adds to our well-being), then it becomes meaningless or even corrosive. The focus them shifts to the negative consequences of consumption, i.e. how the rituals of consumption are eroding / disrupting our well-being.

Rituals are satisfying because the performance of the ritual is itself the source of our satisfaction. Belief or enjoyment isn't necessary; completion of the ritual is its own reward. But once we pull away from the rituals, the emptiness of the performance becomes clear and we start asking, what am I getting out of this for the expense and effort? These questions arise because many conventional consumption rituals have become prohibitively expensive and troublesome and others demand major amounts of time with very little payoff.

Consider the ritual of passively consuming sports. The ratings of televised games were falling before the pandemic, and by some measures appear to be in free-fall. It's not hard to discern potential reasons: Millennials never formed the habit/ritual of spending hours watching a game, or attending games; despite the protests from die-hard fans, most of the games are interchangeable, as are the players, as pro and college sports have become homogenized in many ways.

As with many other consumption rituals, those performing the rituals rarely stopped to ask themselves if the ritual was actually improving their well-being, or if it had slowly morphed into a colossal waste of time and money.

Many activities of discretionary consumption are in large part rituals: going on vacations, taking cruises, shopping, dining out, and so on. While many will miss the performance of these rituals, others will realize they don't really miss them. Some will feel immense relief that they no longer have to put up a facade of enjoying the tiresome, meaningless rituals.

The enormous expense of once-affordable rituals such as dining out means many will give up these consumption rituals because they can no longer afford it. Two sandwiches and two drinks, sales tax and a tip is now routinely $50 or more. (Note to wealthy readers: in the real world, it's pretty difficult to earn $50 net of taxes and the cost of doing business.)

Other consumption rituals were embedded in modes of work that are dissolving because they're no longer financially viable. The rituals of business travel and attending conferences paid by employers are dying because the luxury of these consumption rituals is no longer affordable to employers whose revenues and profits are in terminal decline.

Every manager pounding the table for a return of all employees to the central office has yet to discover what happens when the corporation reports a staggering loss and refuses to provide forward guidance. If the manager is fortunate enough to retain their job, their task will be to eliminate all offices and digitize and/or automate every function to cut costs.

The many rituals of a central office - the endless meetings, the petty arguments, the smoking breaks, going out for lunch - goodbye to all that. A couple of quarters of steep losses in revenues will push every company and agency to strip away all the rituals of consumption that are no longer affordable.

Did all that enormous expense of time and money really make us happy, or were we just going through the motions? Even those who were so anxious to resume the performance of these consumption rituals may find that the performance leaves them with a nagging sense of ennui and hollowness, as if something is missing, despite the perfect repetition of the ritual.

Some will blame the pandemic, but this is not the real source of their dissatisfaction. The heretical truth is that many of the consumption rituals that signified "prosperity" for decades are either meaningless, unaffordable or require way more effort than the meager payoff is worth.

So the game is playing on the TV but nobody's watching. The news is playing on another TV, but nobody's watching that, either. A disembodied stock market pundit declares a new Bull market but nobody's listening. The social media feed is scrolling by in a mad fury on a smartphone but nobody's clicking on any of it. It's all pointless, hollow, tiresome, for the completion of the ritual is no longer enough.

The meaningless of the engagement rituals and the consumption rituals is now so obvious that the desperation of the purveyors to get everyone back on board adds an exclamation point to the emptiness of their offerings. Here's why addressing this is heresy: what props up the economy once all the consumption rituals fall out of favor or are no longer affordable? The answer is of course nothing."

https://www.oftwominds.com/

Sunday, September 27, 2020

"God Grant Me The Courage..."

“God grant me the courage not to give up what I think is right, 
even though I think it is hopeless.”
- Fleet Admiral Chester W. Nimitz

God grant us all the courage... we're gonna need it
to face what's coming. And we're all in this together...
Stay strong, folks...

"Food Shortage And Starvation Are Here As Supply Chain Is Broken! Very Difficult Times Approaching"

Full screen mode suggested.
"Food Shortage And Starvation Are Here As Supply 
Chain Is Broken! Very Difficult Times Approaching"
by Epic Economist

"In this video we're about to review how the American supply chain got broken and why food shortages and starvation will likely expand throughout the country.  If you're a subscriber to our channel, you probably watched us making the case about how prepping can keep you safe when all hell breaks loose. And we've outlined the importance of being prepared in advance for a reason. Living through a crisis with so many unpredictable entanglements, without real assistance from our leaders may put us in a vulnerable position, making our households severely affected by both the political and the economic meltdown. Which results can be translated into food insecurity and rental debt or quickly escalate into starvation and homelessness. 

Several months ago, the immediate effects of the sanitary crisis acted as the kickstart of the first noticeable supply chain disruption. Factories, distribution centers, and even farms were shut down under the new restrictions that envisioned flattening the curve. The underlying indication that a restock in stores would not happen, prompted Americans to rush into the stores and panic-buy cleaning items and non-perishable goods, leaving shelves empty. For weeks, finding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, Clorox, canned meals, meat, and rice was just impossible. 

For the first time in years or even in decades, Americans found some of their basic necessities were missing on store shelves, triggering a fearful reaction that led some of them and the media to put the blame on preppers, who have been gradually stockpiling goods over the course of months or years aiming to be covered in situations like this one. It's essential to highlight the differences between stockpiling and hoarding and making gradual purchases and panic-buying.

We discovered that many business owners were imposing farmers to dump their produce, destroy their crops, and slaughter their animals to create the idea of scarcity so that later the products could be sold for higher prices, and that was shown in their profits, which skyrocketed since inflation took over the markets.

In the meantime, while food prices soar, unemployment numbers keep increasing and the $600 unemployment benefit has expired leaving millions of Americans completely unassisted, a basic right is being denied to these people because they're now unable to meet their basic nutritional needs. 

Five months ago, a report by the Urban Institute revealed that one in six Americans was food insecure. Now, this number is even worse due to the disappearance of the $600 in extra benefits. That is to say, for the benefit of a handful of billionaires, American families are being dragged to the poverty line again. The famine is becoming a terrible reality and things may get even more disturbing from now on. 

The aftereffects of recent natural disasters will culminate in further supply chain disruptions. This year, we witnessed devastating straight-line wind blows that destroyed extensive amounts of crops and farming infrastructure in states like Iowa, and catastrophic wildfires along all the West Coast from Washington to California and as far east as Colorado, South Dakota, and Texas. Now, fires seem to be heading east, burning up prairies and farmlands, ultimately boosting the hunger crisis.

Who would've thought that in 2020 Americans would be facing starvation? It's disconcerting to realize how little we're cared for by those who profit from our labor and our political support. Both sides of the political game are ignoring the terrible impacts of these disasters.

To make things worse, such natural disasters are happening. Droughts, floods, fires, pests, winds all happened this year and many other countries are also facing supply chain disruptions. This is an indicator that if we need to import goods, the other countries may not want to sell us to keep their stocks for themselves, or let's say they do sell it, but highly overpriced, so that very little people would be able to afford it. In any case, prospects don't look good.

As winter is fast approaching and the food supply has been decimated, we're about to experience harsher food shortages. In short, the US is going to be hit with another wave of challenging incidents in face of the economic collapse and natural disasters. What role will hunger play in this scenario? We're not sure yet, but something we do know is that when people are hungry they're able to do unimaginable things to feed their families. Will that spark more social agitation? Possibly, although we do hope that things don't go down this path. It's hard to admit that this is America now. But we have to be aware of the reality not to be swallowed up by it, don't you think? What do you see happening next? Have you experienced food insecurity so far? feel free to share your thoughts on our comment section down below.  Please share this video with your friends and family members."

Must Watch! “Living Standards To Crash; Financial System Meltdown; Economic Survival; Housing Sales-Assets”

Jeremiah Babe,
“Living Standards To Crash; Financial System Meltdown; 
Economic Survival; Housing Sales-Assets”

Musical Interlude: David Lanz, "Variations on a Theme From Pachelbel's Canon in D Major"

 

David Lanz, 
"Variations on a Theme From Pachelbel's Canon in D Major"

Full screen mode suggested.

"Perhaps They Are Not Stars..."

 

“Perhaps they are not stars, but rather openings in heaven 
where the love of our lost ones pours through and shines
 down upon us to let us know they are happy.”
~ An Eskimo saying.

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Large galaxies grow by eating small ones. Even our own galaxy practices galactic cannibalism, absorbing small galaxies that get too close and are captured by the Milky Way's gravity. In fact, the practice is common in the universe and illustrated by this striking pair of interacting galaxies from the banks of the southern constellation Eridanus, The River. 
Click image for larger size.
Located over 50 million light years away, the large, distorted spiral NGC 1532 is seen locked in a gravitational struggle with dwarf galaxy NGC 1531 (right of center), a struggle the smaller galaxy will eventually lose. Seen edge-on, spiral NGC 1532 spans about 100,000 light-years. Nicely detailed in this sharp image, the NGC 1532/1531 pair is thought to be similar to the well-studied system of face-on spiral and small companion known as M51.”

Free Download: Mark Twain, “On The Damned Human Race”

“‘What Is Man’ And Other Essays,
'On The Damned Human Race'”
by Mark Twain
“I have been studying the traits and dispositions of the lower animals (so-called), and contrasting them with the traits and dispositions of man. I find the result humiliating to me. For it obliges me to renounce my allegiance to the Darwinian theory of the Ascent of Man from the Lower Animals; since it now seems plain to me that the theory ought to be vacated in favor of a new and truer one, this new and truer one to be named the Descent of Man from the Higher Animals.

In proceeding toward this unpleasant conclusion I have not guessed or speculated or conjectured, but have used what is commonly called the scientific method. That is to say, I have subjected every postulate that presented itself to the crucial test of actual experiment, and have adopted it or rejected it according to the result. Thus I verified and established each step of my course in its turn before advancing to the next. These experiments were made in the London Zoological Gardens, and covered many months of painstaking and fatiguing work.

Before particularizing any of the experiments, I wish to state one or two things which seem to more properly belong in this place than further along. This, in the interest of clearness. The massed experiments established to my satisfaction certain generalizations, to wit:

1. That the human race is of one distinct species. It exhibits slight variations (in color, stature, mental caliber, and so on) due to climate, environment, and so forth; but it is a species by itself, and not to be confounded with any other. 

2. That the quadrupeds are a distinct family, also. This family exhibits variations (in color, size, food preferences, and so on; but it is a family by itself). 

3. That the other families (the birds, the fishes, the insects, the reptiles, etc.) are more or less distinct, also. They are in the procession. They are links in the chain which stretches down from the higher animals to man at the bottom.

Some of my experiments were quite curious. In the course of my reading I had come across a case where, many years ago, some hunters on our Great Plains organized a buffalo hunt for the entertainment of an English earl. They had charming sport. They killed seventy-two of those great animals; and ate part of one of them and left the seventy-one to rot. In order to determine the difference between an anaconda and an earl (if any) I caused seven young calves to be turned into the anaconda’s cage. The grateful reptile immediately crushed one of them and swallowed it, then lay back satisfied. It showed no further interest in the calves, and no disposition to harm them. I tried this experiment with other anacondas; always with the same result. The fact stood proven that the difference between an earl and an anaconda is that the earl is cruel and the anaconda isn’t; and that the earl wantonly destroys what he has no use for, but the anaconda doesn’t. This seemed to suggest that the anaconda was not descended from the earl. It also seemed to suggest that the earl was descended from the anaconda, and had lost a good deal in the transition.

I was aware that many men who have accumulated more millions of money than they can ever use have shown a rabid hunger for more, and have not scrupled to cheat the ignorant and the helpless out of their poor servings in order to partially appease that appetite. I furnished a hundred different kinds of wild and tame animals the opportunity to accumulate vast stores of food, but none of them would do it. The squirrels and bees and certain birds made accumulations, but stopped when they had gathered a winter’s supply, and could not be persuaded to add to it either honestly or by chicane. In order to bolster up a tottering reputation the ant pretended to store up supplies, but I was not deceived. I know the ant. These experiments convinced me that there is this difference between man and the higher animals: he is avaricious and miserly; they are not. In the course of my experiments I convinced myself that among the animals man is the only one that harbors insults and injuries, broods over them, waits till a chance offers, then takes revenge. The passion of revenge is unknown to the higher animals.

Roosters keep harems, but it is by consent of their concubines; therefore no wrong is done. Men keep harems but it is by brute force, privileged by atrocious laws which the other sex were allowed no hand in making. In this matter man occupies a far lower place than the rooster. Cats are loose in their morals, but not consciously so. Man, in his descent from the cat, has brought the cats looseness with him but has left the unconsciousness behind (the saving grace which excuses the cat). The cat is innocent, man is not.

Indecency, vulgarity, obscenity (these are strictly confined to man); he invented them. Among the higher animals there is no trace of them. They hide nothing; they are not ashamed. Man, with his soiled mind, covers himself. He will not even enter a drawing room with his breast and back naked, so alive are he and his mates to indecent suggestion. Man is The Animal that Laughs. But so does the monkey, as Mr. Darwin pointed out; and so does the Australian bird that is called the laughing jackass. No! Man is the Animal that Blushes. He is the only one that does it or has occasion to.

Of all the animals, man is the only one that is cruel. He is the only one that inflicts pain for the pleasure of doing it. It is a trait that is not known to the higher animals. The cat plays with the frightened mouse; but she has this excuse, that she does not know that the mouse is suffering. The cat is moderate (unhumanly moderate: she only scares the mouse, she does not hurt it; she doesn’t dig out its eyes, or tear off its skin, or drive splinters under its nails) man-fashion; when she is done playing with it she makes a sudden meal of it and puts it out of its trouble. Man is the Cruel Animal. He is alone in that distinction.

The higher animals engage in individual fights, but never in organized masses. Man is the only animal that deals in that atrocity of atrocities, War. He is the only one that gathers his brethren about him and goes forth in cold blood and with calm pulse to exterminate his kind. He is the only animal that for sordid wages will march out, as the Hessians did in our Revolution, and as the boyish Prince Napoleon did in the Zulu war, and help to slaughter strangers of his own species who have done him no harm and with whom he has no quarrel.

Man is the only animal that robs his helpless fellow of his country, takes possession of it and drives him out of it or destroys him. Man has done this in all the ages. There is not an acre of ground on the globe that is in possession of its rightful owner, or that has not been taken away from owner after owner, cycle after cycle, by force and bloodshed.

Man is the only Slave. And he is the only animal who enslaves. He has always been a slave in one form or another, and has always held other slaves in bondage under him in one way or another. In our day he is always some man’s slave for wages and does that man’s work; and this slave has other slaves under him for minor wages, and they do his work. The higher animals are the only ones who exclusively do their own work and provide their own living.

Man is the only Patriot. He sets himself apart in his own country, under his own flag, and sneers at the other nations, and keeps multitudinous uniformed assassins on hand at heavy expense to grab slices of other people’s countries, and keep them from grabbing slices of his. And in the intervals between campaigns, he washes the blood off his hands and works for the universal brotherhood of man, with his mouth.

Man is the Religious Animal. He is the only Religious Animal. He is the only animal that has the True Religion, several of them. He is the only animal that loves his neighbor as himself, and cuts his throat if his theology isn’t straight. He has made a graveyard of the globe in trying his honest best to smooth his brother’s path to happiness and heaven. He was at it in the time of the Caesars, he was at it in Mahomet’s time, he was at it in the time of the Inquisition, he was at it in France a couple of centuries, he was at it in England in Mary’s day, he has been at it ever since he first saw the light, he is at it today in Crete (as per the telegrams quoted above) he will be at it somewhere else tomorrow. The higher animals have no religion. And we are told that they are going to be left out, in the Hereafter. I wonder why? It seems questionable taste.

Man is the Reasoning Animal. Such is the claim. I think it is open to dispute. Indeed, my experiments have proven to me that he is the Unreasoning Animal. Note his history, as sketched above. It seems plain to me that whatever he is he is not a reasoning animal. His record is the fantastic record of a maniac. I consider that the strongest count against his intelligence is the fact that with that record back of him he blandly sets himself up as the head animal of the lot: whereas by his own standards he is the bottom one. In truth, man is incurably foolish.

One is obliged to concede that in true loftiness of character, Man cannot claim to approach even the meanest of the Higher Animals. It is plain that he is constitutionally incapable of approaching that altitude; that he is constitutionally afflicted with a Defect which must make such approach forever impossible, for it is manifest that this defect is permanent in him, indestructible, ineradicable. I find this Defect to be the Moral Sense. He is the only animal that has it. It is the secret of his degradation. It is the quality which enables him to do wrong. It has no other office. It is incapable of performing any other function. It could never have been intended to perform any other. Without it, man could do no wrong. He would rise at once to the level of the Higher Animals.

Since the Moral Sense has but the one office, the one capacity (to enable man to do wrong) it is plainly without value to him. It is as valueless to him as is disease. In fact, it manifestly is a disease. Rabies is bad, but it is not so bad as this disease. Rabies enables a man to do a thing, which he could not do when in a healthy state: kill his neighbor with a poisonous bite) one is the better man for having rabies: The Moral Sense enables a man to do wrong. It enables him to do wrong in a thousand ways. Rabies is an innocent disease, compared to the Moral Sense. No one, then, can be the better man for having the Moral Sense. What now, do we find the Primal Curse to have been? Plainly what it was in the beginning: the infliction upon man of the Moral Sense; the ability to distinguish good from evil; and with it, necessarily, the ability to do evil; for there can be no evil act without the presence of consciousness of it in the doer of it.

And so I find that we have descended and degenerated, from some far ancestor (some microscopic atom wandering at its pleasure between the mighty horizons of a drop of water perchance) insect by insect, animal by animal, reptile by reptile, down the long highway of smirch-less innocence, till we have reached the bottom stage of development (namable as the Human Being). Below us, nothing.”

Freely download: “‘What Is Man’ And Other Essays”, 
by Mark Twain, here: