So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Bill Bonner, "Tend Your Garden"
"Tend Your Garden"
Prudence pays off. It gives compounding, long-term capital growth, dividends and luck a chance to grow your wealth. Likewise, avoid the Big Loss with your health and you can live a good, full life.
by Bill Bonner
Baltimore, Maryland - "Our doctor, Mark, draws an interesting parallel. “You know, it’s the same thing with your health and longevity. The secret is to avoid the Big Loss.” There are many things we don’t know... and many ways to die. And finally, in life, we all will take the Big Loss, no matter what we do.
We were reminded this week when we attended a funeral for a friend; like it or not, we’re all headed in the same direction. But some of us get where we are going sooner than others. Our friend succumbed to MSA. It’s a wasting disease that attacks the nervous system. The brain still works. But tracking the disintegration of your own body must be grim. Walking, talking, breathing, swallowing, digesting — gradually, all the normal body functions fail. The spectacle is alarming and depressing... and there is nothing that can be done about it. There is no treatment and no cure; the only relief comes in the grave. ‘He died much too soon,’ said the officiating rabbi, ‘but he lived a full, good life.’
Medical science doesn’t know what causes MSA or what to do about it. But there are many ailments and problems that can be dodged or at least postponed. Mark emphasizes the need to think positive, optimistic thoughts. “You have to think of your ‘future self,’” he says. “You need to think of the you that you want to be ten years from now... and plan for it. You invest now to get a reward later.”
How can you avoid the Big Loss from accident, disease or infirmity? Much of this is obvious. Don’t drive while drunk. Don’t slip on the bathroom floor. Don’t drink too much. Don’t smoke too much. Don’t do ‘too much’ of anything. Don’t eat too much, for example... and you will not become obese. In the 19th century, really fat people were so rare that they were put on display in freak shows. Now, obesity is so common that any candidate who gets the fat vote is a guaranteed winner. One hundred million US adults are ‘obese.’ Around 22 million are ‘severely obese.’
New drugs such as Ozempic may offer relief from obesity, but we don’t know yet what the long-term side effects may be. A simpler and more dependable approach: if you don’t want to be obese in ten years, don’t eat so much today. Being overweight is not a death sentence. But it can increase the odds of taking the Big Loss - causing so much damage, in one way or another, that it makes your life shorter and less agreeable.
Another eating-related disorder that can cause the Big Loss is Type 2 diabetes. A hundred years ago doctors rarely saw it. Today, there are thirty million diabetics in the US. Please don’t take this for actual health advice. You probably know more than we do about these things. But from what we read, Type 2 diabetes is largely avoidable. You can prevent it by getting plenty of exercise and not eating so much sugar... and ‘highly processed’ food.
It’s really very easy to sidestep these Big Losses. Just tell your gardener to plant a ‘kitchen garden’ and grow fresh vegetables and wholesome fruits. Tell him not to apply pesticides or herbicides... but instead to use a little elbow grease.
Get him first to ‘double dig’ the soil, by hand, of course, mixing in plenty of manure and organic matter. Ask him to set up a greenhouse... and to start the plants early. He can begin with kale, spinach and onions in the cool weather... and then rotate into corn and tomatoes later. Remember that root crops should be planted by the light of a waning moon.
As the seasons advance, he can eliminate the weeds by hand or hoe. Carefully watering, hoeing, fertilizing... you can just imagine the delicious garden-fresh vegetables he brings to your table. And, if he really puts his back into it…if he really works at it… we can practically guarantee results - your gardener won’t be obese!"
"Scott Ritter: Israel Took Up The Sword, Now I'll Perish By The Sword"
Redacted, 10/3/24
"Scott Ritter: Israel Took Up The Sword,
Now I'll Perish By The Sword"
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o
Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 10/3/24
"Israeli Air Force Attacks Russian Military Base
In Middle East, Explosions Rock Syria"
"Israeli air strike targets Russian airbase and Russian weapons depot in Syria. As per Syrian state media reports, Israeli bombardment started at 3.55am and ended at 4.41am. Syrian air defense claimed to have intercepted 50 projectiles with the help of Russian military. The hostile projectiles reportedly targeted Syria’s Latakia, Jableh, and Tartous."
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Dialogue Works, AM 10/3/24
"Ray McGovern: Iran Hits Israel! Israel's Response
Incoming as the Middle East Spirals into Chaos!"
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Travelling with Russell, "I Went To A Brand New Russian Shopping Mall in 2024"
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 10/3/24
"I Went To A Brand New Russian Shopping Mall in 2024"
"What does a Russian shopping mall look like in 2024? Come along on a tour of Meeting Place Baku Shopping Centre in Moscow, Russia. Opened in October 2024, this is a brand-new shopping mall in Russia."
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Gregory Mannarino, "The Largest Transfer Of Wealth In History, And There Is No Way To Stop It"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/3/24
"The Largest Transfer Of Wealth In History,
And There Is No Way To Stop It"
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Adventures With Danno, "Awesome Deals At Kroger, Stock Up Now!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 10/3/24
"Awesome Deals At Kroger, Stock Up Now!"
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Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Canadian Prepper, "Alert! I Have An Extremely Bad Feeling! Get Cash And Supplies ASAP"
Canadian Prepper, 10/2/24
"Alert! I Have An Extremely Bad Feeling!
Get Cash And Supplies ASAP"
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Jeremiah Babe, "No Mercy For America; Bank of America Lost Your Money"
Jeremiah Babe, 10/2/24
"No Mercy For America;
Bank of America Lost Your Money"
"A Look to the Heavens"
“What makes this spiral galaxy so long? Measuring over 700,000 light years across from top to bottom, NGC 6872, also known as the Condor galaxy, is one of the most elongated barred spiral galaxies known.
The galaxy's protracted shape likely results from its continuing collision with the smaller galaxy IC 4970, visible just above center. Of particular interest is NGC 6872's spiral arm on the upper left, as pictured here, which exhibits an unusually high amount of blue star forming regions. The light we see today left these colliding giants before the days of the dinosaurs, about 300 million years ago. NGC 6872 is visible with a small telescope toward the constellation of the Peacock (Pavo).”
"Doug Casey on the End of Western Civilization"
"Doug Casey on the End of Western Civilization"
by International Man
"International Man: The decline of Western Civilization is on a lot of people’s minds. Let’s talk about this trend.
Doug Casey: Western Civilization has its origins in ancient Greece. It’s unique among the world’s civilizations in putting the individual - as opposed to the collective - in a central position. It enshrined logic and rational thought - as opposed to mysticism and superstition - as the way to deal with the world. It’s because of this that we have science, technology, great literature and art, capitalism, personal freedom, the concept of progress, and much, much more. In fact, almost everything worth having in the material world is due to Western Civilization.
Ayn Rand once said "East minus West equals zero." I think she went a bit too far, as a rhetorical device, but she was essentially right. When you look at what the world’s other civilizations have brought to the party, at least over the last 2,500 years, it’s trivial. I lived in the Orient for years. There are many things I love about it - martial arts, yoga, and the cuisine among them. But all the progress they’ve made is due to adopting the fruits of the West.
International Man: There are so many things degrading Western Civilization. Where do we begin?
Doug Casey: It’s been said, correctly, that a civilization always collapses from within. World War 1, in 1914, signaled the start of the long collapse of Western Civilization. Of course, termites were already eating away at the foundations, with the writings of people like Jean-Jacques Rousseau and Karl Marx. It’s been on an accelerating downward path ever since, even though technology and science have been improving at a quantum pace. They are, however, like delayed action flywheels, operating on stored energy and accumulated capital. Without capital, intellectual freedom, and entrepreneurialism, science and technology will slow down. I’m optimistic we’ll make it to Kurzweil’s Singularity, but there are no guarantees.
Things also changed with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Before that, the US used gold coinage for money. "The dollar" was just a name for 1/20th of an ounce of gold. That is what the dollar was. Paper dollars were just receipts for gold on deposit in the Treasury. The income tax, enacted the same year, threw more sand in the gears of civilization. The world was much freer before the events of 1913 and 1914, which acted to put the State at the center of everything.
The Fed and the income tax are both disastrous and unnecessary things, enemies of the common man in every way. Unfortunately, people have come to believe they’re fixtures in the cosmic firmament. They’re the main reasons - there are many other reasons, though, unfortunately - why the average American’s standard of living has been dropping since the early 1970s. In fact, were it not for these things, and the immense amount of capital destroyed during the numerous wars of the last 100 years, I expect we’d have already colonized the moon and Mars. Among many other things.
But I want to re-emphasize that the science, the technology, and all the wonderful toys we have are not the essence of Western Civilization. They’re consequences of individualism, capitalism, rational thought, and personal freedom. It’s critical not to confuse cause and effect.
International Man: You mentioned that the average American’s standard of living has dropped since the early 1970s. This is directly related to the US government abandoning the dollar’s last link to gold in 1971. Since then, the Federal Reserve has been able to debase the US dollar without limit. I think the dollar’s transformation into a purely fiat currency has eroded the rule of law and morality in the US. It’s similar to what happened in the Roman Empire after it started debasing its currency. What do you think, Doug?
Doug Casey: All the world’s governments and central banks share a common philosophy, which drives these policies. They believe that you create economic activity by stimulating demand, and you stimulate demand by printing money. And, of course, it’s true, in a way. Roughly the same way a counterfeiter can stimulate a local economy.
Unfortunately, they ignore that, and completely ignore that the way a person or a society becomes wealthy is by producing more than they consume and saving the difference. That difference, savings, is how you create capital. Without capital you’re reduced to subsistence, scratching at the earth with a stick. These people think that by inflating - which is to say destroying - the currency, they can create prosperity. But what they’re really doing, is destroying capital: When you destroy the value of the currency, that discourages people from saving it. And when people don’t save, they can’t build capital, and the vicious cycle goes on.
This is destructive for civilization itself, in both the long term and the short term. The more paper money, the more credit, they create, the more society focuses on finance, as opposed to production. It’s why there are many times more people studying finance than science. The focus is increasingly on speculation, not production. Financial engineering, not mechanical, electrical, or chemical engineering. And lots of laws and regulations to keep the unstable structure from collapsing.
What keeps a truly civil society together isn’t laws, regulations, and police. It’s peer pressure, social opprobrium, moral approbation, and your reputation. These are the four elements that keep things together. Western Civilization is built on voluntarism. But, as the State grows, that’s being replaced by coercion in every aspect of society. There are regulations on the most obscure areas of life. As Harvey Silverglate pointed out in his book, the average American commits three felonies a day. Whether he’s caught and prosecuted is a subject of luck and the arbitrary will of some functionary. That’s antithetical to the core values of Western Civilization.
International Man: Speaking of ancient civilizations like Rome, interest rates are just coming off the the lowest levels they’ve been in 5,000 years of recorded history. Trillions of dollars’ worth of government bonds trade at negative yields. Of course, this couldn’t happen in a free market. It’s only possible because of central bank manipulation. How will artificially low interest rates affect the collapse of Western Civilization?
Doug Casey: It’s really, really serious. I previously thought it was metaphysically impossible to have negative interest rates but, in the Bizarro World central banks have created, it’s happened.
Negative interest rates discourage saving. Once again, saving is what builds capital. Without capital you wind up as an empty shell - Rome in 450 A.D., or Detroit today - lots of wonderful but empty buildings and no economic activity. Worse, it forces people to desperately put their money in all manner of idiotic speculations in an effort to stay ahead of inflation. They wind up chasing the bubbles the funny money creates.
Let me re-emphasize something: in order for science and technology to advance you need capital. Where does capital come from? It comes from people producing more than they consume and saving the difference. Debt, on the other hand, means you’re living above your means. You’re either consuming the capital others have saved, or you’re mortgaging your future.
Zero and negative interest rate policies, and the creation of money out of nowhere, are actually destructive of civilization itself. It makes the average guy feel that he’s not in control of his own destiny. He starts believing that the State, or luck, or Allah will provide for him. That attitude is typical of people from backward parts of the world - not Western Civilization.
International Man: What does it say about the economy and society that people work so hard to interpret what officials from the Federal Reserve and other central banks say?
Doug Casey: It’s a shameful waste of time. They remind me of primitives seeking the counsel of witch doctors. One hundred years ago, the richest people in the country - the Rockefellers, the Carnegies, and such - made their money creating industries that actually made stuff. Now, the richest people in the country just shuffle money around. They get rich because they’re close to the government and the hydrant of currency materialized by the Federal Reserve. I’d say it’s a sign that society in the US has become quite degraded.
The world revolves much less around actual production, but around guessing the direction of financial markets. Negative interest rates are creating bubbles, and will eventually result in an economic collapse.
International Man: Negative interest rates are essentially a tax on savings. A lot of people would rather pull their money out of the bank and stuff it under a mattress than suffer that sting. The economic central planners know this. It’s why they’re using negative interest rates to ramp up the War on Cash - the push to eliminate paper currency and create a cashless society.
The banking system is very fragile. Banks don’t hold much paper cash. It’s mostly digital bytes on a computer. If people start withdrawing paper money en masse, it won’t take much to bring the whole system down. Their solution is to make accessing cash harder, and in some cases, illegal. That’s why the economic witch doctors at Harvard are pounding the table to get rid of the $100 bill. Take France, for example. It’s now illegal to make cash transactions over €1,000 without documenting them properly.
Negative interest rates have turbocharged the War on Cash. If the central planners win this war, it would be the final deathblow to financial privacy. How does this all relate to the collapse of Western Civilization?
Doug Casey: I believe the next step in their idiotic plan is to abolish cash. Decades ago they got rid of gold coinage, which used to circulate day to day in people’s pockets. Then they got rid of silver coinage. Now, they’re planning to get rid of cash altogether. So you won’t even have euros or dollars or pounds in your wallet anymore, or if you do, it will only be very small denominations. Everything else is going to have to be done through electronic payment processing.
This is a huge disaster for the average person: absolutely everything that you buy or sell, other than perhaps a candy bar or a hamburger, is going to have to go through the banking system. Thus, the government will be able to monitor every transaction and payment. Financial privacy, even what’s left of it today, will literally cease to exist.
Privacy is one of the big differences between a civilized society and a primitive society. In a primitive society, in your little dirt hut village, anybody can look through your window or pull back the flap on your tent. You have no privacy. Everybody can hear everything; see anything. This was one of the marvelous things about Western Civilization - privacy was valued, and respected. But that concept, like so many others, is on its way out…
International Man: You’ve mentioned before that language and words provide important clues to the collapse of Western Civilization. How so?
Doug Casey: Many of the words you hear, especially on television and other media, are confused, conflated, or completely misused. Many recent changes in the way words are used are corrupting the language. As George Orwell liked to point out, to control language is to control thought. The corruption of language is adding to the corruption of civilization itself. This is not a trivial factor in the degradation of Western Civilization.
Words - their exact meanings, and how they’re used are critically important. If you don’t mean what you say and say what you mean, then it’s impossible to communicate accurately. Forget about transmitting philosophical concepts.
Take for example shareholders and stakeholders. We all know that a shareholder actually owns a share in a company, but have you noticed that over the last generation shareholders have become less important than stakeholders? Even though stakeholders are just hangers-on, employees, or people who are looking to get in on a shakedown. But everybody slavishly acknowledges, "Yes, we’ve got to look out for the stakeholders." Where did that concept come from? It’s a recent creation, but Boobus americanus seems to think it was carved in stone at the country’s founding.
We’re told to protect them, as if they were a valuable and endangered species. I say, "A pox upon stakeholders." If they want a vote in what a company does, then they ought to become shareholders. Stakeholders are a class of being created out of nothing by Cultural Marxists for the purpose of shaking down shareholders."
Editor’s Note: This is going to be the most turbulent decade in US history…The 2020s will be more dangerous than the 1930s, the 1940s, and even the 1860s. That's because severe crises are brewing on multiple fronts and converging. The whole system will have a complete reset, and soon. It could be the BIGGEST thing since the founding of the USA."
Greg Hunter, "From a Bunker in Israel, American Empire is Over"
"From a Bunker in Israel,
American Empire is Over"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning of a huge war cycle. The Iran missile attack in Israel that rained down 180 missiles on the Holy land, “is just the beginning,” according to Nenner.
Of course, America and everybody else will be involved in this war, and Nenner says don’t expect America to come out on top. Nenner says, “I don’t know how big this war is going to be because everybody is going to be involved. Israel is not going to sit on its hands like last time because this cannot continue. I guess Israel will go for the enrichment of the uranium places and attack Iran whenever they are ready. I don’t vote in the United States because I am Dutch, but if Trump were in, this would be over in an hour.”
When it comes to the 2024 November election, Nenner says, “I think the media is doing a great job. So, I am not sure that Trump is going to win. I really have no mercy for America anymore if they vote for Kamala. It’s just the end of an empire already. Even if Trump wins, I don’t think he can fix what needs to be fixed because the Biden government put all kinds of people in positions that are going to be there for a while. I watch Congress and see who the Biden Administration brings forward for new judges, and I have no words for it. It’s ridiculous. I don’t even know how to fix the United States anymore. According to the cycles the United States is finished. This war now will probably turn into a world war, and the problem is they (US) will have to fight Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, and they have no chance to win. .Nobody will have to invade the United States. They will just finish them off with rockets from the air. It is a hopeless situation.”
Nenner famously said several months ago, “If you know winter is coming, you can buy a winter coat. Trump is the winter coat.” So, can Trump still be the winter coat America needs to survive? Nenner says, “I don’t think he can. It’s too late.”
On the markets, Nenner thinks there is going to be a stock market crash that will be equal to or greater than the Great Depression market crash in 1929. Nenner says, “We are telling our clients to get out of stocks. We have zero stocks.” Nenner also thinks gold is the place to be for the next three years. Nenner thinks gold is going much higher. On interest rates, Nenner says they are going higher too, and real estate and bonds are going lower. This is the longer term trend in Nenner’s cycle.
When will this market crash come? Nenner says, “It’s still going to take half a year or a year until everybody realizes how bad the situation is compared to the BRIC countries. The dollar is not going to be the major currency. Nixon stopped backing it by gold, and Saudia Arabia stopped backing it by oil. It is not backed by anything. So, why would you trust the dollar?" There is much more in the 30-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One
with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner:
Gerald Celente, "USSA... Killing People For Political Purposes"
Gerald Celente, 10/2/24
"USSA... Killing People For Political Purposes"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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Dan, I Allegedly, "You Won't Believe What They Are Selling"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, PM 102024
"You Won't Believe What They Are Selling"
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"The U.S. Dollar And The US Economy Is In An Irrecoverable Tailspin, No Way To Escape It"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/2/24
"The U.S. Dollar And The US Economy Is
In An Irrecoverable Tailspin, No Way To Escape It"
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Adventures with Danno, "Food Shortage Report & Massive Price Increases Coming!"
Adventures with Danno, AM 10/2/24
"Food Shortage Report &
Massive Price Increases Coming!"
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"The Cry Of Their Mothers..."
"Humanity is the spirit of the Supreme Being on earth, and that humanity is standing amidst ruins, hiding its nakedness behind tattered rags, shedding tears upon hollow cheeks, and calling for its children with pitiful voice. But the children are busy singing their clan's anthem; they are busy sharpening the swords and cannot hear the cry of their mothers."
- Kahlil Gibran
U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsman HM1 Richard Barnett, assigned to the 1st Marine Division, holds an Iraqi child in central Iraq in this March 29, 2003 file photo. Confused front line crossfire ripped apart an Iraqi family after local soldiers appeared to force civilians towards positions held by U.S. Marines.
“My heart broke on its shame and sorrow. I suddenly knew how much crying there was in me, and how little love. I knew, at last, how lonely I was. But I couldn’t respond. My culture had taught me all the wrong things well. So I lay completely still, and gave no reaction at all. But the soul has no culture. The soul has no nations. The soul has no color or accent or way of life. The soul is forever. The soul is one. And when the heart has its moment of truth and sorrow, the soul can’t be stilled. I clenched my teeth against the stars. I closed my eyes. I surrendered to sleep. One of the reasons why we crave love, and seek it so desperately, is that love is the only cure for loneliness, and shame, and sorrow. But some feelings sink so deep into the heart that only loneliness can help you find them again. Some truths about yourself are so painful that only shame can help you live with them. And some things are just so sad that only your soul can do the crying for you.”
- Gregory David Roberts, "Shantaram"
Bill Bonner, "Inflation Forever"
A 50 Million Mark note from Germany, July 1923
"Inflation Forever"
Debt goes up and up. And there is not much anyone can do about it.
In the heat of battle, currencies are devalued. Consumer goods
give way to military goods. And debt drags the whole economy down.
by Bill Bonner
Baltimore, Maryland - "War. Inflation. Bubbles and boondoggles. All require a little madness... suspending good taste and sound judgement... delaying the reckoning... going along with the flow - to Hell.
The Mirror: "Iran's missile attack on Israel is 'first step toward WW3' as just one factor is preventing all-out war Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles toward targets in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem late Tuesday evening, with some striking buildings. Most failed to launch or were intercepted by the country's Iron Dome defense system and by U.S. Navy destroyers stationed nearby."
NBC follows up: "Live updates: Israel sends more troops into Lebanon and vows Iran will pay for missile attack Israel's military said Wednesday it was sending new ground forces into southern Lebanon, as Iran warned the U.S. and its ally against retaliation for its ballistic missile attack."
What do you do? Buy Nvidia? ‘Defense’ stocks? Gold? Find a cave somewhere? So far this year, thanks to the Fed, the S&P is up 18%. But gold is up even more - almost 20%. Since 2021, the S&P has gained about 20%... while gold is up more than 30%. The feds can juice up the stock market, but they can’t control the value of the dollar. As stock prices go up, the economy slumps... and the dollar falls against gold. That trend is likely to stay with us for many years... as the war drums beat louder, central banks cut rates, and debt needs to be inflated away.
Around the campfire today dance the familiar figures, Republican and Democrat... painted up and ready for (someone else) to die in battle. Their blood is up. And amid the whooping and hollering there is no time to study the ledgers or consider the long-term implications. This is a time for action... a time to fight. A time to die. And a time to print! In love, war, drugs, gambling, inflation and desserts - you count the costs later.
This week marks the anniversary of the Munich Conference. There will be ‘peace in our time,’ said Neville Chamberlain, when he returned to London. The newspapers repeated it. Most people believed it. But peace didn’t happen. Because both Germany and Italy had been taken over by people who didn’t want peace. They wanted war. Today, 76 years later, the world has changed. Who wants war now?
America’s leading politicians believe they are heirs to Churchill, not Chamberlain. They think they have learned their lessons. No appeasement! No isolationism! Bombs away! The BBC: "'The country is lost': Fear and uncertainty in Lebanon as Israel invades. Now that this has been confirmed, with what the Israeli military describes as a “limited, localised and targeted” operation, the fear is that this could be the start of something wider. History shows that it is easy for Israeli troops to enter Lebanon, but difficult for them to leave.
Just another killing spree? A limited regional war? Another step towards a more permanent West-vs.-East WWIII? And the costs? We won’t know for years. But war is unpredictable; and hard to control. So are the costs. And money (and lives) is what the costs get counted in. The US military budget is already about two times larger (inflation adjusted) than it was under Jimmy Carter. And now, more money will be needed.
Debt goes up and up. And there is not much anyone can do about it. In the heat of battle, currencies are devalued. Consumer goods give way to military goods. And debt drags the whole economy down. Since 2008, US debt has grown at the rate of $1 trillion per year, while GDP growth averaged only 1.8% per year - piddling, in other words. Even during the Great Depression, growth came in at 1.9% per year.
The ‘30s Depression led to the ‘40s WWII. In depressions, people become desperate. They aim for solutions…but they hit residential apartment buildings. Could today’s depression be leading to WWIII... or war and inflation forever? We don’t know. But do you own gold, dear reader? We hope so."
The Poet: W.H. Auden, "September 1, 1939"
"September 1, 1939"
"Defenseless
under the night
Our world in stupor lies;
Yet, dotted everywhere,
Ironic points of light
Flash out
wherever the Just
Exchange their messages:
May I, composed like them
Of Eros and of dust,
Beleaguered by the same
Negation and despair,
Show an affirming flame."
- W.H. Auden
○
"On September 1, 1939, the German army under Adolf Hitler launched an invasion of Poland that triggered the start of World War II (though by 1939 Japan and China were already at war). The battle for Poland only lasted about a month before a Nazi victory. But the invasion plunged the world into a war that would continue for almost six years and claim the lives of tens of millions of people."
○
And here we are, on the brink of a nuclear World War III with Russia,
having learned... nothing...
John Wilder, "Economics Of War, 2024 Edition"
"Economics Of War, 2024 Edition"
by John Wilder
"War is one of the natural states of humanity. Although we don’t have records back before when Grug was living in Switzerland before hot cocoa was invented, we do have Ötzi, a guy who died about 5,300 years ago.
What we can tell about Ötzi is that, first, he’s dead. Secondly, we can tell that he was almost certainly murdered. By who? Don’t know, but it’s a pretty good bet that the guy who inflicted the wound died, too. Unless he was killed by Keith Richards, who we should probably put on a space ship because only he could live long enough to travel to another star.
Why would I say that the murderer was dead (unless it was Keith Richards)? The Yanomami people of the jungles of South America are as close as we have to “pre-civilization” people, and they killed themselves in at an astonishing rate. About half of their men died in combat until fairly recently. The economics of the Yanomami violence are pretty simple – a bow, an arrow, a stone knife, and an enemy. Heck, they don’t even have money, so I have no idea how they can get a rental car.
In one sense, we are the opposite of the Yanomami and Ötzi. We have been fortunate enough to live in the Good Times, when the horror of nuclear weapons has thus far lowered the percentage of combat deaths since 1945 to what I think could be a historic low. Why?
War is like football. Everyone comes out of the huddle, and then lines up. What the team on the offense is going to do? Who knows. It’s the job of the defense to respond and stop them, though using snipers is considered to be unsportsmanlike. Creating surprise is now pretty difficult, especially surprise on a large scale. Let’s look at the Ukraine Conflict.
It started out as a grand, strategic move like a great World War II battle with tanks and bombs and planes. That did surprise the West (me included) because it seemed so out of place given the safe world we live in – as /pol/ would say: “nothing ever happens”. The initial gains of the Russians were large, but by the time the Ukrainians got their feet under them, the Russians had a logistical snarl and found out that rubber tires rot if you just leave them in the garage for thirty or forty years. Oops.
The war went from swooping strategy to what exists now: a series of mainly small-scale actions where when an infantry squad breaks through, it sometimes makes the news even though a gain of 500 yards is a big deal. Why? Because large troop concentrations are visible from space. And anything visible from space is a target. Neither side can effectively generate the schwerpunkt or focal point of forces required to break through and create a war of movement.
Nope. The latest development is that small squads of Russians are now using small, cheap ($2500 or less) dirt bikes to get to the opposing trenches fast, disposing of them as they storm the trenches. This helps them avoid the ever-present drone swarms. It’s like "The Road Warrior", but with fewer shoulder pads.
And tank warfare? For now, at least, it’s gone. Just like bat is the “chicken of the cave” so is the tank now the “aircraft carrier of the land”. They’re mainly just expensive targets, and a variety of cope cages, turtle shells, and electronic jamming have been field-innovated to try to protect them. But when you lose a tank, you lose a pretty big investment. Russia can only make (depending on your definition of tanks) about 1,500 a year, along with 3,000 other sorts of armored vehicles. A big chunk of those tanks are modernized and rebuilt Soviet-era tanks.
A Russian T-90 tank costs about $4.5 million. A drone with bomb costs less than a thousand dollars. One economist estimated that the Russian tank losses alone was about an $11 billion dollar hit. You do the math.
Likewise, aircraft have had to stay well back because of surface to air missiles, of which the Russians produce a pretty good variety. The Russians claim (heavy emphasis on the word claim) their radars can easily see the F-35 and F-22. Claim. An F-35 costs about $109,000,000 per aircraft. An F-22 cannot be replaced – we lost the tooling. Fun fact: $109,000,000 in quarters would weigh five and a half million pounds, or the equivalent of the weight of pre-printed Biden ballots the Democrats had to dispose of discreetly after Joe dropped out.
As of January, 2024, we have 234 operational F-35s. We have 187 F-22s. And, yes, those babies can unleash a lot of havoc in short order, but missiles are cheap, and if it takes dozens to knock one of our fighters down, it’s dollars ahead. And, let’s be clear: they’re not always flying. The US response to the Me-262 wasn’t to try to dogfight a German jet with a Yankee prop, nope, our aces hung around the German air bases and shot them as they had to land.
Every weapon has a weakness, and rarely can those weaknesses be overcome by papering them over with hundred-dollar bills. But just as the object of making weapons has gotten bigger and bigger, our ability to fight a World War II style war has gone to zero. One anecdote is that a captured German fighter pilot was bragging about shooting up a large quantity of American planes on the ground at an airbase. Being at the airbase, the US officer took him outside and noted, “They’ve already been replaced.” The German reportedly said, after a heavy sigh, “And that is why we are losing.” That, and my great-grandfather, Johan von Wilder, who was responsible for downing five German fighters by himself. Worst mechanic in the Luftwaffe.
The trend, though, is less $100 million fighters, but now seems to be looking towards large numbers of inexpensive, nearly disposable weapons that are cheap, lots of missiles that cost a few million bucks, and fewer “so expensive it’s silly” systems, except for those that give the really important part of the battle: information – satellites and radar and the like.
But for all of that, the goal in war seems to have changed. Rather than breaking stuff and killing people, the goal is more based on long-term fights whose goal is to cause the enemy to become unstable to topple their own leadership for someone more favorable. I’m betting this is really a legacy of the Cold War.
I don’t think that we’re in any shape to fight an actual war against a determined opponent in a conventional sense for longer than a month or two, and wholly incapable of fighting in an area where we don’t have uncontested air dominance. From an industrial standpoint, our ability to make more stuff isn’t serious: outside of small arms and helmet and clothing, I’m not sure that there’s a weapons system that we could make without the help of overseas firms for critical items.
We just don’t make it here anymore, and building the basic industries to allow us to do so will take decades and trillions of dollars in capital invested. I think we’ve reached the point where our primary weapon is financial. There’s a precedent that situation can last a long time – the Byzantine Empire lasted in one form or another for over 1,000 years.
The Byzantine Empire had a gold stash that would make Scrooge McDuck® do whatever it is that ducks do when they’re happy, however. We don’t. Our wealth is based on paper and mathematics, and can move across borders in milliseconds (megafarads if you want an SI unit). What would Ötzi’s people think about that? I don’t really know. I guess we’ll have to ask Keith Richards."
o
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
"Holy S#+%! Israel Preparing Apocalyptic Attack On Iran, The Countdown Begins"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/1/24
"Holy S#+%! Israel Preparing Apocalyptic
Attack On Iran, The Countdown Begins"
Comments here:
Gerald Celente, "Billionaire's Billions For Bombs, Not A Penny For Occupy Peace"
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 10/1/24
"Billionaire's Billions For Bombs,
Not A Penny For Occupy Peace"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:
Musical Interlude: Metareflection, "Sunset Sonata"
Full screen recommended.
Metareflection, "Sunset Sonata"
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Big, beautiful spiral galaxy NGC 1055 is a dominant member of a small galaxy group a mere 60 million light-years away toward the aquatically intimidating constellation Cetus. Seen edge-on, the island universe spans over 100,000 light-years, a little larger than our own Milky Way galaxy. The colorful, spiky stars decorating this cosmic portrait of NGC 1055 are in the foreground, well within the Milky Way. But the telltale pinkish star forming regions are scattered through winding dust lanes along the distant galaxy's thin disk.
Click image for larger size.
With a smattering of even more distant background galaxies, the deep image also reveals a boxy halo that extends far above and below the central bulge and disk of NGC 1055. The halo itself is laced with faint, narrow structures, and could represent the mixed and spread out debris from a satellite galaxy disrupted by the larger spiral some 10 billion years ago."
"October Begins With A Bang; Port Closures A Catastrophic Blow To Economy; Looting In The South"
Jeremiah Babe, 10/1/24
"October Begins With A Bang; Port Closures A
Catastrophic Blow To Economy; Looting In The South"
Comments here:
"Maybe..."
"Maybe we're not supposed to be happy. Maybe gratitude has nothing to do with joy. Maybe being grateful means recognizing what you have for what it is. Appreciating small victories. Admiring the struggle it takes to simply be a human. Maybe, we're thankful for the familiar things we know. And maybe, we're thankful for the things we'll never know. At the end of the day, the fact that we have the courage to still be standing is reason enough to celebrate. "
- "Grey's Anatomy "
Free Download: George Orwell, "Animal Farm"
"Animal Farm"
by George Orwell
Biographical note: "George Orwell, 1903-1950, was the pen name used by British author and journalist Eric Arthur Blair. During most of his professional life time Orwell was best known for his journalism, both in the British press and in books such as "Homage to Catalonia," describing his activities during the Spanish Civil War, and "Down and Out in Paris and London," describing a period of poverty in these cities. Orwell is best remembered today for two of his novels, "Animal Farm" and "Nineteen Eighty-Four."
Description: Power corrupts, but absolute power corrupts absolutely- and this is vividly and eloquently proved in Orwell's short novel. "Animal Farm" is a simple fable of great symbolic value, and as Orwell himself explained: "it is the history of a revolution that went wrong." The novel can be seen as the historical analysis of the causes of the failure of communism, or as a mere fairy-tale; in any case it tells a good story that aims to prove that human nature and diversity prevent people from being equal and happy, or at least equally happy.
"Animal Farm" tells the simple and tragic story of what happens when the oppressed farm animals rebel, drive out Mr. Jones, the farmer, and attempt to rule the farm themselves, on an equal basis. What the animals seem to have aimed at was a utopian sort of communism, where each would work according to his capacity, respecting the needs of others. The venture failed, and "Animal Farm" ended up being a dictatorship of pigs, who were the brightest, and most idle of the animals.
Orwell's mastery lies in his presentation of the horrors of totalitarian regimes, and his analysis of communism put to practice, through satire and simple story-telling. The structure of the novel is skillfully organized, and the careful reader may, for example, detect the causes of the unworkability of communism even from the first chapter. This is deduced from Orwell's description of the various animals as they enter the barn and take their seats to listen to the revolutionary preaching of Old Major, father of communism in Animal Farm. Each animal has different features and attitude; the pigs, for example, "settled down in the straw immediately in front of the platform", which is a hint on their future role, whereas Clover, the affectionate horse" made a sort of wall" with her foreleg to protect some ducklings.
So, it appears that the revolution was doomed from the beginning, even though it began in idealistic optimism as expressed by the motto "no animal must ever tyrannize over his own kind. Weak or strong, clever or simple, we are all brothers." "When the animals drive out Mr. Jones, they create their "Seven Commandments" which ensure equality and prosperity for all the animals. The pigs, however, being the natural leaders, managed to reverse the commandments, and through terror and propaganda establish the rule of an elite of pigs, under the leadership of Napoleon, the most revered and sinister pig.
"Animal Farm" successfully presents how the mechanism of propaganda and brainwashing works in totalitarian regimes, by showing how the pigs could make the other animals believe practically anything. Responsible for the propaganda was Squealer, a pig that "could turn black into white." Squealer managed to change the rule from "all animals are equal" to "all animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others." He managed to convince the other animals that it was for their sake that the pigs ate most of the apples and drank most of the milk, that leadership was "heavy responsibility" and therefore the animals should be thankful to Napoleon, that what they saw may have been something they "dreamed", and when everything else failed he would use the threat of "Jones returning" to silence the animals. In this simple but effective way, Orwell presents the tragedy and confusion of thought control to the extent that one seems better off simply believing that "Napoleon is always right".
Orwell's criticism of the role of the Church is also very effective. In Animal Farm, the Church is represented by Moses, a tame raven, who talks of "Sugarcandy Mountain", a happy country in the sky "where we poor animals shall rest forever from our labors". It is interesting to observe that when Old Major was first preaching revolutionary communism, Moses was sleeping in the barn, which satirizes the Church being caught asleep by communism. It is also important to note that the pig-dictators allowed and indirectly encouraged Moses; it seems that it suited the pigs to have the animals dreaming of a better life after death so that they wouldn't attempt to have a better life while still alive...
In "Animal Farm," Orwell describes how power turned the pigs from simple "comrades" to ruthless dictators who managed to walk on two legs, and carry whips. The story may be seen as an analysis of the Soviet regime, or as a warning against political power games of an absolute nature and totalitarianism in general. For this reason, the story ends with a hair-raising warning to all humankind: "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again: but already it was impossible to say which was which."
Description: Power corrupts, but absolute power corrupts absolutely- and this is vividly and eloquently proved in Orwell's short novel. "Animal Farm" is a simple fable of great symbolic value, and as Orwell himself explained: "it is the history of a revolution that went wrong." The novel can be seen as the historical analysis of the causes of the failure of communism, or as a mere fairy-tale; in any case it tells a good story that aims to prove that human nature and diversity prevent people from being equal and happy, or at least equally happy.
"Animal Farm" tells the simple and tragic story of what happens when the oppressed farm animals rebel, drive out Mr. Jones, the farmer, and attempt to rule the farm themselves, on an equal basis. What the animals seem to have aimed at was a utopian sort of communism, where each would work according to his capacity, respecting the needs of others. The venture failed, and "Animal Farm" ended up being a dictatorship of pigs, who were the brightest, and most idle of the animals.
Orwell's mastery lies in his presentation of the horrors of totalitarian regimes, and his analysis of communism put to practice, through satire and simple story-telling. The structure of the novel is skillfully organized, and the careful reader may, for example, detect the causes of the unworkability of communism even from the first chapter. This is deduced from Orwell's description of the various animals as they enter the barn and take their seats to listen to the revolutionary preaching of Old Major, father of communism in Animal Farm. Each animal has different features and attitude; the pigs, for example, "settled down in the straw immediately in front of the platform", which is a hint on their future role, whereas Clover, the affectionate horse" made a sort of wall" with her foreleg to protect some ducklings.
So, it appears that the revolution was doomed from the beginning, even though it began in idealistic optimism as expressed by the motto "no animal must ever tyrannize over his own kind. Weak or strong, clever or simple, we are all brothers." "When the animals drive out Mr. Jones, they create their "Seven Commandments" which ensure equality and prosperity for all the animals. The pigs, however, being the natural leaders, managed to reverse the commandments, and through terror and propaganda establish the rule of an elite of pigs, under the leadership of Napoleon, the most revered and sinister pig.
"Animal Farm" successfully presents how the mechanism of propaganda and brainwashing works in totalitarian regimes, by showing how the pigs could make the other animals believe practically anything. Responsible for the propaganda was Squealer, a pig that "could turn black into white." Squealer managed to change the rule from "all animals are equal" to "all animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others." He managed to convince the other animals that it was for their sake that the pigs ate most of the apples and drank most of the milk, that leadership was "heavy responsibility" and therefore the animals should be thankful to Napoleon, that what they saw may have been something they "dreamed", and when everything else failed he would use the threat of "Jones returning" to silence the animals. In this simple but effective way, Orwell presents the tragedy and confusion of thought control to the extent that one seems better off simply believing that "Napoleon is always right".
Orwell's criticism of the role of the Church is also very effective. In Animal Farm, the Church is represented by Moses, a tame raven, who talks of "Sugarcandy Mountain", a happy country in the sky "where we poor animals shall rest forever from our labors". It is interesting to observe that when Old Major was first preaching revolutionary communism, Moses was sleeping in the barn, which satirizes the Church being caught asleep by communism. It is also important to note that the pig-dictators allowed and indirectly encouraged Moses; it seems that it suited the pigs to have the animals dreaming of a better life after death so that they wouldn't attempt to have a better life while still alive...
In "Animal Farm," Orwell describes how power turned the pigs from simple "comrades" to ruthless dictators who managed to walk on two legs, and carry whips. The story may be seen as an analysis of the Soviet regime, or as a warning against political power games of an absolute nature and totalitarianism in general. For this reason, the story ends with a hair-raising warning to all humankind: "The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again: but already it was impossible to say which was which."
Free download George Orwell’s “Animal Farm" here:
The Poet: J.R.R. Tolkien, "I Sit And Think"
“I sit beside the fire and think
Of all that I have seen,
Of meadow flowers and butterflies
In summers that have been.
Of yellow leaves and gossamer
In autumns that there were,
With morning mist and silver sun
And wind upon my hair.
I sit beside the fire and think
Of how the world will be
When winter comes without a spring
That I shall ever see.
For still there are so many things
That I have never seen,
In every wood, in every spring,
There is a different green.
I sit beside the fire and think
Of people long ago,
And people that will see a world
That I shall never know.
But all the while I sit and think
Of times there were before,
I listen for returning feet
And voices at the door.”
- J.R.R. Tolkien
"There Comes A Time..."
"I make no bones about being partisan for my country. I also feel no shame whatever because of it. I absolutely disagree that "great thinkers don't let that affect the thoughts". I would say exactly the opposite: someone who refuses to let love-of-country affect their thoughts is a moral cripple irrespective of their intellectual prowess. I can look dispassionately at the situation, and I have done so repeatedly. But I will never forget which nation I love and support.
We Americans have a saying: “It’s more important what you stand for than who you stand with.” I do not rely upon peer opinion to decide what is right and what is wrong. I make those decisions for myself, and even if I discover that every other human alive chose differently, that doesn’t mean I was wrong.
There comes a time in every man’s life when he has to choose sides. I have chosen my side. I am comfortable with my decision. I do not think everyone on my side is a saint, but I know that those on the other side are much, much worse.
Sometimes a man with too broad a perspective reveals himself as having no real perspective at all. A man who tries too hard to see every side may be a man who is trying to avoid choosing any side. A man who tries too hard to seek a deeper truth may be trying to hide from the truth he already knows. That is not a sign of intellectual sophistication and “great thinking”. It is a demonstration of moral degeneracy and cowardice.”
- Steven Den Beste
○
“Each man must for himself alone decide what is right and what is wrong, which course is patriotic and which isn't. You cannot shirk this and be a man. To decide against your conviction is to be an unqualified and unexcusable traitor, both to yourself and to your country, let men label you as they may.”
- Mark Twain
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