So, we rise from the rubble...
Friday, May 24, 2024
"The Continual Rise in the Cost of Living… And Why the Fed has No Shame"
"The Continual Rise in the Cost of Living…
And Why the Fed has No Shame"
by David Stockman
"Jay Powell did it again assuring the 1% that he has their back. Markets recovered their poise over the last 24 hours, as investors were relieved after Fed Chair Powell stuck to his recent views on the economic outlook. In his remarks yesterday, he said that recent data didn’t "materially change the overall picture" and that on inflation "it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump." In addition, he reiterated that if "the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year." So that all helped to validate market pricing, which still expects 71 bps of rate cuts from the Fed by the December meeting.
Needless to say, the man has no shame. And that’s to say nothing of intellectual firepower. There is not even a smidgen of a case that rate cuts in the present context will help main street, and the Fed heads and their Wall Street megaphones don’t actually even try to make that argument.
Instead, they argue for rates cuts by default. If by some tortured version of the CPI (i.e. the "supercore" index, which eliminates 61% of the CPI items by weight) they can espy the in-coming inflation trend settling into a liberally defined vicinity of 2.00%, that’s purportedly good enough to end the money-printing pause that has been in place since March 2022. Thereafter, it’s back to business as usual, flooding the canyons of Wall Street with cheap credit and a new burst of financial asset inflation.
Never mind that in this particular inflation-cycle, the general price level is up by 28% since January 2017 and that tens of millions of households and businesses have been badly damaged, even as others harvested windfall gains. When it comes to inflation and all the other so-called macroeconomic metrics on their dashboards, past history–even the recent past—is dead to the Fed heads.
Instead, it’s all about the current and especially the prospective rate of change as embodied in the silly "dot-plots" they gurgle around in their brains and update four times per year And we do mean silly. After all, if the consensus of the 19 geniuses who participate in the dot-plot guessing game espies say a 2.27% gain in the supercore index over the next year, so what?!
The fact is, the US economy needs a lot more relief from its recent inflationary pounding than the Fed’s guesstimated rate of slowdown in the forward year rise of the price level. After all, here is the increase in the core cost of living items since January 2017.
Change in Core Cost-of-Living Components Since January 2017:
Food: +32%.
Shelter: +34%.
Energy: +35%.
Transportation Services: +36%.
In the case of savers, retirees, wage-earners in globally impacted industries where wages haven’t kept up with the CPI, isn’t the above enough punishment? Doesn’t it actually amount to state-directed expropriation of their living standards and modest accumulated wealth? In any event, what the hell is so almighty urgent about rate cuts when the economy is still growing apace and the cumulative inflation of the last seven years has not been relieved in the slightest?
Increase In Major Cost-of-Living Components of the CPI Since January 2017
The dog-eared claim that rate cuts will enhance the growth rate of output, jobs, investment and spending on main street just doesn’t wash. Artificially low interest rates overwhelmingly fuel borrowing for speculation and financial engineering (e.g. stock buybacks) on Wall Street, not borrowing for productive investment on main street or even for enhanced "consumption" by the household sector, which is now buried in debt up to the gills after decades of easy money.
In fact, the only way that easy money causes households to spend more than the growth rate of their incomes is if they steadily increase their debt-to-income or leverage ratio. That generates incremental borrowings, which in turn can supplement spending derived from current period income.
As to the supply-side growth canard, it cannot be gainsaid that the amount of monetary stimulus has been off the charts relative to all prior history. In fact, the Fed’s balance sheet at @ $7.5 trillion is still more than 8X its pre-crisis level in Q4 2007.
Yet when it comes to real growth of value-added production during the six year period from Q1 2018 to Q4 2023, the chart below tells you all you need to know. To wit, real value added output in the health care, education and social services sector grew at a 2.71% per annum rate, which was 3X the 0.90% real growth rate of the nondurable goods production sector.
Self-evidently, the former sector does not need easy money or ultra-low interest rates to grow. Demand in the health, education and social services sector is overwhelmingly financed by government fiscal transfers, including the massive subsidies implicit in the medical care deductions and preferences of the IRS code.
Indeed, the red line in the chart below represented the fastest growing sector of the US economy by far during that six year period, but we’d dare say none of those gains depended upon low interest rates. The sector’s munificent funding actually flows from statutory entitlements and long-standing tax code provisions, which generate essentially the same level of demand and sector output whether the Federal funds rate is 1% or 7%.
Real Value Added: Education, Health Care and Social
Assistance Sector Versus Durable Goods, 2018 to 2023
At the same time, it is highly unlikely that a return to low rates will do much for the moribund growth rates in the industrial economy, as represented here by real-value added in the nondurable goods industries. Long ago, much of US production of shoes, shirts, sheets, household supplies and the like was off-shored to lower cost venues abroad. And locking in the current inflated domestic costs levels plus another 2-3% per year going forward will not bring them back. In sum, the Fed’s fiddling with interest rates is largely irrelevant to the supply-side path of the two industries shown below, and countless more just like them.
Finally, it is tantamount to laughable to claim that the Fed needs to revert to the rate cutting modality in order to stabilize the financial markets and main street economy and to compensate for the purported inherent volatility of the free market. Oh, puleese!
Every one of the main street recessions and financial market crises of the past six decades has been caused by the state and the machinations of its central banking branch. The very idea that there is an implicit third mandate called "financial stability" (after inflation control and full employment) is risible. It puts you in mind of the young man who killed both parents and then threw himself upon the mercy of the court on the grounds that he was an orphan!
At the end of the day, sharply cutting rates any time this year or for some time to come thereafter would amount to a financial crime. After just a short stay of approximately eight months barely in positive territory (purple area) since July 2023, inflation-adjusted or real rates would be back below the zero bound, where they have destructively dwelled for much of the last several decades, as the chart makes crystal clear. Of course, that development would be heartily welcomed by Wall Street speculators and the Washington war-mongers and spenders alike. And that’s exactly the reason it should not be done."
Inflation-Adjusted Federal Funds Rate, 2001 to 2024
"Geography Is Destiny"
"Geography Is Destiny"
by Brian Maher
"If you seek understanding of a nation’s foreign policy - and its political orientation - please consult a map. That is because the map - nine times of 10 - will yield you your answer. The map makes a mockery of theory. See the map and the scales will then go falling from your eyes. The map clarifies.
Why did Germany pick two mighty fights last century? Why is neighboring Switzerland so docile? Why is Russia so given to paranoia? Why did liberty sink root in the fertile political soil of Great Britain and its New World castoffs? Again, the map supplies the answers. Let us first consider the aforesaid Germany…
Naked Upon the North European Plain: Germany inhabits the North European Plain. This plain is a defenseless and nearly infinite expanse stretching from the English Channel in the West clear through to Russia’s Ural Mountains in the East. The geography is a massively extended pancake. Its flatness affords Germany little natural defense. Thus Germany stands exposed, naked upon the North European Plain.
To her southwest lies formidable France. To her east snarls the menacing Russian bear. Hence she is squeezed between the French and Russian vise, squeezed between two rivals. A conundrum!
Germany’s 1871 unification - with its vast military and industrial potential - alarmed both France and Russia. Sandwiched between them both, this French and Russian alarm in turn alarmed Germany. What if they leagued together… and besieged her from two sides? It is no exaggeration to argue that The Great War and its 1939 sequel represented German efforts to solve the riddle - to escape the vise grip. Historians decry the Kaiser and the moustached Austrian corporal for initiating both conflagrations. They might first blame the German geography.
Geography and Liberty: What about neighboring Switzerland? Why does she lack the bloodlusting aggression of her Teutonic neighbor? Again, geography holds the answer. Switzerland is heavily alpine, and famously so. And mountains are murder on marauders. These Alps form very high walls, behind which the Swiss can shelter. Switzerland has been trespassed by foreign armies, it is true. Yet the geographical explanation for her listless nonaggression remains valid. Is it any wonder then that liberty flourished so beautifully in Switzerland?
Unlike exposed-on-two sides Germany… vulnerable upon the North European Plain… Switzerland’s alpine defenses largely relieve it of invasion fears. In that geography liberty can plant itself. A people situated therein enjoys the luxury of peaceful pursuits under liberty’s reign. Liberty is unlikely to plant itself in a land perpetually subject to invasion. This land’s residents cannot afford the luxury of liberty. They must be forever on watch. They must adopt a more collective orientation. Again, geography forms a heavy influence. Shall we consider the Russian example?
The Mongols, the French, the Germans, Oh My: Like Germany, Russia sits on the open North European Plain. This of course exposes her to western invasion. Messieurs Bonaparte and Hitler exploited fully this vulnerability - the former in 1812 - the latter in 1941.
And to the east? Russia’s nearly infinite steppes stretch clear through to Mongolia. For what is Mongolia best known? Genghis Khan and the Golden Horde of marauding horsemen who terrorized Eurasia. Crossing these grassy seas, Mongol invaders besieged and conquered Russia. Thus Russia stands vulnerable to invasion from both east and west alike. History has demonstrated this fact to high effect.
Is it any wonder then why Russia appears so paranoid of territorial transgression? Is it any wonder why Russia is so jealous of its influence over Ukraine - and why the prospect of Ukrainian absorption into a western military alliance freezes Russia’s blood? We hazard it is no wonder whatsoever. This paranoia springs from Russian history. And Russian history has been written largely by geography. Let us now take up a geographical consideration of the United States…
God Smiles Upon the United States: God filled two oceans - Atlantic to the right, Pacific to the left - to moat it off from marauders. Russia may have its “General Winter,” it is true. The abovesaid Bonaparte and Hitler can attest to his superior generalship. Yet Russia’s General Winter is nothing against Admirals Atlantic and Pacific of the United States Navy. They keep any invader at length.
Meantime, God emplaced two geopolitical blanks against American land borders, two punchless bantams. One squats to the north, Canada. One sits to the south, Mexico. Imagine a cat bordered north and south by mice. That is the American position - a cat bordered by two mice.
God furthermore blessed the United States with vast tracts of fertile, bountiful land… an extended capillary system of internal waterways… natural harbors from which to send things out… and to take things in. What other nation has enjoyed such natural, God-granted riches? None can approach it. “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America,” concluded Germany’s Otto von Bismarck.
All available evidence indicates it is true. And of these God-blessed categories, we conclude God has most blessed the United States of America. She has absorbed more divine favor than the most foolish fool or the drunkest drunkard.
God’s Sense of Humor: Has God given the United States a Baltimore… a Detroit… a Cleveland? Has He populated its capital with rogues, rascals, cadges, chiselers, grifters and swindlers, with fools and drunkards? Well, friends, maybe He has. We must conclude that He has a mischievous, even puckish sense of humor, this God. He delights in pulling noses. Yet the central fact remains: He has nonetheless showered America with such immense natural extravagance.
In quiet moments, often in the small hours of night, we often marvel…Why are we so fortunate as to reside in this Eden, this El Dorado, this Elysium? Countless others in the world’s various hells are infinitely more deserving. But to proceed…
Much like Switzerland, the American geography sprouts people free to focus on freedom. Of course these people are free to make jackasses of themselves. They often do. But let it go for now. America’s liberty-leaning she shares with her mother, Great Britain. And again, here geography offers us insight.
English Liberty Because of the English Channel: The English Channel has proven an excellent moat. When was England last invaded? 1066? It is no surprise then that Great Britain gave us the Magna Carta. Its geography affords a freedom against invasion - and like Switzerland, an orientation toward political liberality.
Geography likewise blesses the Commonwealth it hatched. New Zealand is an island nation and Australia is a continent. Neither faces foreign harassment. And both like to talk about liberty (whether they mean it or not. Their COVID-era raids upon liberty were among the most extravagant on Earth). Would Great Britain or any of its offshoots soak themselves in liberty if their geographies were different? We hazard they would not. Imagine any of them sharing the German geography or the Russian geography. Their orientations would be more German or Russian than English, American, New Zealander or Australian.
We must conclude that a map will teach you far more about this world than a groaning bookcase of encyclopedias will teach you about this world. Is demographics destiny? Well then, geography is destiny. Close the book, we say - and open a map."
Bill Bonner, "New World Order"
Halford Mackinder’s World Island
"New World Order"
Driving the Chinese and the Russians into each other’s arms
might turn out to be the biggest strategic miscalculation of all time.
by Bill Bonner
Dublin, Ireland - "It’s coming... a new world order. Politics doesn’t interest us. But mega-politics does. Its deep currents - mostly unseen - carry history along with them. And they guide and drive the Primary Trends in markets, too.
And this week, something very important happened. We saw the future taking shape. Vladimir Putin went to Beijing. There, he surely received one of the warmest welcomes he has ever gotten. But this was more than just conviviality... it was the signal of a big shift in the power relationships - ‘les rapports de force’ - between the governments of planet earth.
Ray McGovern, a CIA analyst for 27 years, reports: "It amounts to a tectonic shift in the world balance of power. The Russia-China entente also sounds the death knell for attempts by U.S. foreign policy neophytes to drive a wedge between the two countries. The triangular relationship has become two-against-one, with serious implications, particularly for the war in Ukraine. If U.S. President Joe Biden’s foreign policy geniuses remain in denial, escalation is almost certain."
Since the end of WWII, US security experts and geopolitical strategists have taken comfort in what they thought was an eternal animosity between Russia and China. The two titans share a long border and a long history of mutual distrust. But now, something has changed. The two old adversaries have embraced. Now, “it’s two against one,” says McGovern.
Arnaud Bertrand: "Wow, China and Russia issued an extraordinary joint statement yesterday, with almost 8,000 words when translated into English, and in many ways more important than the famous "no limits" partnership statement in February 2022."
Bertrand identifies three important features in the joint Russian/Chinese announcement. First, they openly proclaim a New World Order in which the US is no longer the boss: “The status and strength of emerging major countries and regions in the ‘Global South’ are continuously increasing” which will lead to greater “multipolarity.”
The second point is that the statement clearly takes aim at the US, telling it to stop “interfering in the internal affairs of other countries”... and creating “small yards with high fences” among the world’s sovereign powers.
The third point must send chills of delight and foreboding, both up and down our warmongers’ spines. It calls for much broader, deeper cooperation militarily, as well as commercially: "Both sides] will further deepen military mutual trust and cooperation, expand the scale of joint training activities, regularly organize joint maritime and air patrols, strengthen coordination and cooperation within bilateral and multilateral frameworks, and continuously improve the ability and level of jointly responding to risks and challenges."
Is this just diplomatic blah, blah? It doesn’t sound like it. It sounds more like an alliance between the world’s largest country geographically - Russia - and the world’s most dynamic economy - China. Russia is experienced and capable militarily; it has shown itself able to resist the weapons and tactics of the advanced “West.” But the Russian economy is tiny. The US firepower lobby made full use of ‘bear baiting’ to get more money from Congress. But Russia lacks the commercial strength to pose much of a danger.
China was a convenient bugaboo, too. It has manufacturing and high-tech capacity up the wazoo. What it lacks is much experience in modern warfare. Since Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan in 1949, China has minded its own business, lately more eager to make money than to make war. And now, with the full cooperation of Russia, it will be able to shore up its defenses and bring its military up to world standards.
Alfred Thayer Mahan concocted a grand theory in which there were two types of geopolitical force - landpower versus seapower - described in his famous book, "The Influence of Seapower on History." The book became required reading, not only at the US Naval War College, but in Japan and Germany too. The Japanese built up their fleet in the 1920s and ‘30s expecting a ‘decisive battle’ with the US. In fact, they got their decisive battle - Midway - and they lost.
Napoleon Bonaparte seemed to anticipate Mahan by nearly a century. He believed he would beat the Duke of Wellington at Waterloo, because “the English don’t know how to fight on land.” He lost too.
But never before was there a landpower so great, potentially, as the China/Russia partnership. For various reasons - mostly venal, partly just stupid - US policymakers made enemies of both Russia and China. The firepower industry needed enemies to justify huge military budgets. Spurred by the neocons, the US rolled out sanctions, tariffs, massive support for the Ukraine, more military spending, threats and sophisticated new weapons.
In these pages, we’ve focused on how these policies add to US debt and make it impossible to forestall a debt crisis. But that may turn out to be the least of the problem. Driving the Chinese and the Russians into each other’s arms might turn out to be the biggest strategic miscalculation of all time.
Yes, the dreaded Huns, the Han, Tartars, Mongols, Cossacks - all the fierce warriors of the steppes and the Middle Kingdom - are coming together. Not since Genghis Khan has the Eurasian Heartland been so united. And so long, small fry - Vietnam, Grenada, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan. Now, the empire of ‘the West’ may have created a worthy opponent."
o
Jim Kunstler, "Of Men and Myths"
"Of Men and Myths"
by Jim Kunstler
“Donald Trump doesn’t trust women. I do.”
- “Joe Biden” on “X”
"There comes a time when the rigors and exertions of being insane just aren’t worth it anymore. You end up in a deadly Pareto distribution in which 80 percent of your energy gets wasted on hallucinating and the rest is barely enough to get yourself dressed, comb your purple hair, and choke down a granola bar.
Verging on a long, hot summer, the party behind “Joe Biden” looks like a 1950s horror movie, complete with lurching ghouls, evil scientists in white lab coats, and the sore beset denizens of Anytown USA screaming down the streets. Only it’s the actual life of our nation now, and it looks like an awful lot of the people who live here lawfully have had enough of it.
The mysterious cabal in power knows that they must ditch the old stumblebum pretending to run for president, and time is running out to get the dastardly deed done. They are staring down a month of dread days that lead to the proposed great debate between the major party candidates, which is doomed to play like a combo of the classic horror movie endings - the unmasking of the phantom with a wooden stake driven through his heart, with Donald Trump cast as Prof Van Helsing. Can our resourceful intel blob instead maybe find a way before that to make it look like the “president” passed away peacefully in his slumber? Or perhaps it would suffice to just leak the voice recording of his interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur and allow people to compare what’s in it with the already-released printed transcript.
Here’s just how crazy the party is: rumor has it that they might just rudely shove oId “JB” aside and try the Hail Mary pass of inviting RFKJr back on-board from exile to head the ticket. The Kennedy name alone used to be synonymous with the party’s brand, is their thinking, you see. Trouble is, the Democratic Party is, in reality, synonymous with the intel blob that infests it, and protects it in the service of protecting its own sorry ass. You might recall that RFKJr has publicly stated that his father and uncle were murdered by that selfsame intel blob, which he has promised to treat very harshly were he actually elected. So, scratch that gambit.
Beyond that, you’re back to the maddening rotation of Gavin Newsom, Michelle, and Rodan the Flying reptile, a.k.a. She-Whose-Turn-It-Is - all of them appallingly impossible. Gavin might have been Mr. Dreamboat incarnate - that hair! that height! those teeth! - prompting a pandemic of The Vapors among ladies who lately predominate in the Democrat rank-and-file. But, alas, under his charge California degenerated into a Woke bedlam of diseased homeless junkies shitting all over his cities, with non-stop flash-mob looting, carjacking, and drag queen promenading in the background, and there’s no way of hiding it. Gavin Newsom has a big “L” carved on his forehead the way that Charlie Manson used to sport a swastika.
The Michelle ploy might tempt them, but let’s face it: it’s really just Barack getting a fourth term in the White House - really his fourth-and-a-half, since the Obama intel blob cabal was behind all the RussiaGate roguery that beset, preoccupied, thwarted, and overthrew Mr. Trump’s turn in office. Behind the still-charming Obama façade lurks a penumbra of menace. It begins to look like maybe he really did want to destroy our country, to complete the Cloward-Piven downfall that dedicated Marxians deem the necessary step to creating their nirvana of equity and inclusion. And there are still those dark tales of his coke-fueled cruising nights in Chicago ...and the mysterious death of his paddle-boarding chef-pal on Martha’s Vineyard...and those persistent rumors that what you see in Michelle is not what you get. Can you really see Barack hosting kaffeeklatsches in the East Room while Michelle plans drone strikes in the Oval?
So, finally there is...Hillary. After all, she still stalks this earth. She still pops up on TV regularly pronouncing this and that, mostly in the name of...women...who just can’t get a fair shake in this land, despite running all the elite universities, the foundations, many corporations (especially MSNBC), and the new misinformation-squelching commissions. She’s still reminding all and sundry that the country owes her the Big Prize in this era of historic firsts. She also happens to own the DNC, the apparatus that actually runs the party’s affairs. Her last time around (2016) she simply shoved primary election leader Bernie Sanders off-the-plank when convention time rolled around and there was nothing else left to do. Personally, I’d love to see the rematch. It would be the end of the party, which apparently doesn’t grok just how much America loathes her.
Much more, I daresay, than even the Golden Golem of Greatness who is metamorphosing day by day into an archetypal hero that the ancient Greek myth-makers would be proud of as he survives one tribulation after another thrown at him by Nemesis. Now, as he awaits conviction in the shuck-and-jive court case under mad dog Judge Juan Merchan, he ventured onto Democratic Party sacred ground up in the South Bronx to a surprisingly warm welcome by exactly the hard-up people the Democrats pretend to care about (as long as they stay down on the plantation and don’t get too uppity).
Will Judge Merchan actually try to send the candidate to jail? Or maybe confine him to Trump Tower under some sort of house arrest? With maybe a big clunky ankle-bracelet for additional humiliation? That will be ripe. Let me proffer some advice to the Judge: the last thing you want to do with an archetypal hero is give him a prison to break out of so he can come roaring out for vengeance. In the end, Mr. Trump could accomplish something truly remarkable: bringing our country back together as a people united against being f*cked-around by their own government."
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Canadian Prepper, "Alert! US Preps Ukraine For Nuclear Strike! China Encircles Taiwan"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/23/24
"Alert! US Preps Ukraine For Nuclear Strike!
China Encircles Taiwan"
Comments here:
Jeremiah Babe, "Prepare For An Economic Crash Landing; Markets Plunge"
Jeremiah Babe, 5/23/24
"Prepare For An Economic Crash Landing;
Markets Plunge"
Comments here:
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Galaxies of the Virgo Cluster are scattered across this deep telescopic field of view. The cosmic scene spans about three Full Moons, captured in dark skies near Jalisco, Mexico, planet Earth. About 50 million light-years distant, the Virgo Cluster is the closest large galaxy cluster to our own local galaxy group. Prominent here are Virgo's bright elliptical galaxies from the Messier catalog, M87 at the top left, and M84 and M86 seen (bottom to top) below and right of center.
M84 and M86 are recognized as part of Markarian's Chain, a visually striking line-up of galaxies vertically on the right side of this frame. Near the middle of the chain lies an intriguing interacting pair of galaxies, NGC 4438 and NGC 4435, known to some as Markarian's Eyes. Of course giant elliptical galaxy M87 dominates the Virgo cluster. It's the home of a super massive black hole, the first black hole ever imaged by planet Earth's Event Horizon Telescope."
The Poet: Charles Bukowski, "The Laughing Heart"
Full screen recommended.
Charles Bukowski, "The Laughing Heart"
“7 Best Shakespeare Insults”
“7 Best Shakespeare Insults”
by The Huffington Post
"You should be women and yet your beards forbid me to interpret that you are so." Shakespeare employs this biting insult in "Macbeth" to establish the complete and utter repulsiveness of the three witches. Their "withered and wild" features cause Macbeth and Banquo to question if the sisters are even human beings.
"Methinks thou art a general offense, and every man should beat thee. I think thou wast created for men to breathe themselves upon you." In "All's Well That Ends Well," Lafeu hits infamous liar and coward Porolles with this blunt put-down after being finally fed up with his antics. Although, knowing Porolles and his mischievous ways, he probably deserved the jab.
"I must tell you friendly in your ear, sell when you can, you are not for all markets." Beggars can't be choosers is the modern way of getting this point across, but Shakespeare's version is far more biting. "As You Like It" showcases Shakespeare's gift of saying the meanest of things in the most eloquent ways in this insult Rosalind doles out to Phebe.
"Thou art a base, proud, shallow, beggarly, three-suited, hundred-pound, filthy worsted-stocking knave; a lily-liver'd, action-taking, whoreson, glass-gazing, superserviceable, finical rogue; one-trunk-inheriting slave; one that wouldst be a bawd in way." Possibly the most elaborate jab he has ever written, Shakespeare pulls out all the stops in "King Lear" when the Earl of Kent replies to Oswald's innocent question of, "What dost thou know me for?" with nearly every insult in the book. And if that verbal attack wasn't enough to put Oswald down, the Earl of Kent proceeds to physically beat him!
"I'll beat thee, but I should infect my hands." In Shakespeare's "Timon of Athens," protagonist Timon and his least favorite dinner companion, Apemantus, insult each other to no end in a verbal smack-down that lasts half of the scene. While Apemantus tries to rally with comebacks as cruel as, "A plague on thee! Thou are too bad to curse," it seems Timon reigns supreme with this precise one-liner.
"Away, you cut-purse rascal! You filthy bung, away! By this wine, I'll thrust my knife in your mouldy chaps, an you play the saucy cuttle with me. Away, you bottle-ale rascal! you basket-hilt stale juggler, you!" This put-down was said by prostitute Doll Tearsheet, who was notorious for having a sharp tongue, to Pistol in Act II of "Henry IV Part II."
"Thou art a boil, a plague sore, an embossed carbuncle in my corrupted blood." King Lear calls his daughter, Regan, these terrible names only to revoke his insult and promise not to punish her. Regardless of how fast he apologizes to her for his spiteful words, it's still a grade-A insult.”
"Methinks thou art a general offense, and every man should beat thee. I think thou wast created for men to breathe themselves upon you." In "All's Well That Ends Well," Lafeu hits infamous liar and coward Porolles with this blunt put-down after being finally fed up with his antics. Although, knowing Porolles and his mischievous ways, he probably deserved the jab.
"I must tell you friendly in your ear, sell when you can, you are not for all markets." Beggars can't be choosers is the modern way of getting this point across, but Shakespeare's version is far more biting. "As You Like It" showcases Shakespeare's gift of saying the meanest of things in the most eloquent ways in this insult Rosalind doles out to Phebe.
"Thou art a base, proud, shallow, beggarly, three-suited, hundred-pound, filthy worsted-stocking knave; a lily-liver'd, action-taking, whoreson, glass-gazing, superserviceable, finical rogue; one-trunk-inheriting slave; one that wouldst be a bawd in way." Possibly the most elaborate jab he has ever written, Shakespeare pulls out all the stops in "King Lear" when the Earl of Kent replies to Oswald's innocent question of, "What dost thou know me for?" with nearly every insult in the book. And if that verbal attack wasn't enough to put Oswald down, the Earl of Kent proceeds to physically beat him!
"I'll beat thee, but I should infect my hands." In Shakespeare's "Timon of Athens," protagonist Timon and his least favorite dinner companion, Apemantus, insult each other to no end in a verbal smack-down that lasts half of the scene. While Apemantus tries to rally with comebacks as cruel as, "A plague on thee! Thou are too bad to curse," it seems Timon reigns supreme with this precise one-liner.
"Away, you cut-purse rascal! You filthy bung, away! By this wine, I'll thrust my knife in your mouldy chaps, an you play the saucy cuttle with me. Away, you bottle-ale rascal! you basket-hilt stale juggler, you!" This put-down was said by prostitute Doll Tearsheet, who was notorious for having a sharp tongue, to Pistol in Act II of "Henry IV Part II."
"Thou art a boil, a plague sore, an embossed carbuncle in my corrupted blood." King Lear calls his daughter, Regan, these terrible names only to revoke his insult and promise not to punish her. Regardless of how fast he apologizes to her for his spiteful words, it's still a grade-A insult.”
- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
"The Worst Part..."
"People cry not because they are weak.
It's because they've been strong for too long."
- Johnny Depp
"How Empires End"
"How Empires End"
by Jeff Thomas
“Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted
with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.”
– Thomas Jefferson
"Histories are generally written by academics. They, quite naturally, tend to focus on the main events: the wars and the struggles between leaders and their opponents (both external and internal). Whilst these are interesting stories to read, academics, by their very nature, often overlook the underlying causes for an empire’s decline.
Today, as in any era, most people are primarily interested in the “news” - the daily information regarding the world’s political leaders and their struggles with one another to obtain, retain, and expand their power. When the history is written about the era we are passing through, it will reflect, in large measure, a rehash of the news. As the media of the day tend to overlook the fact that present events are merely symptoms of an overall decline, so historians tend to focus on major events, rather than the “slow operations” that have been the underlying causes.
The Persian Empire: When, as a boy, I was “educated” about the decline and fall of the Persian Empire, I learned of the final takeover by Alexander the Great but was never told that, in its decline, Persian taxes became heavier and more oppressive, leading to economic depression and revolts, which, in turn led to even heavier taxes and increased repression. Increasingly, kings hoarded gold and silver, keeping it out of circulation from the community. This hamstrung the market, as monetary circulation was insufficient to conduct business. By the time Alexander came along, Persia, weakened by warfare and internal economic strife, was a shell of an empire and was relatively easy to defeat.
The Tang Dynasty: Back then, I also learned that the Tang Dynasty ended as a result of the increased power amongst the eunuchs, battles with fanzhen separatists, and finally, peasants’ revolts. True enough, but I was not taught that the dynasty’s expansion-based warfare demanded increases in taxation, which led to the revolts. Continued warfare necessitated increasing monetary and land extortion by the eunuchs, resulting in an abrupt decrease in food output and further taxes. Finally, as economic deterioration and oppression of the citizenry worsened, citizens left the area entirely for more promise elsewhere.
Is there a pattern here? Let’s have a more detailed look - at another empire.
The Spanish Empire: In 1556, Philip II of Spain inherited what was regarded as Europe’s most wealthy nation, with no apparent economic problems. Yet, by 1598, Spain was bankrupt. How was this possible?
Spain was doing well but sought to become a major power. To achieve this, Philip needed more tax dollars. Beginning in 1561, the existing servicio tax was regularised, and the crusada tax, the excusado tax, and the millones tax were all added by 1590.
Over a period of 39 years (between 1559 and 1598) taxes increased by 430%. Although the elite of the day were exempt from taxation (the elite of today are not officially exempt), the average citizen was taxed to the point that both business expansion and public purchasing diminished dramatically. Wages did not keep pace with the resultant inflation. The price of goods rose 400%, causing a price revolution and a tax revolution.
Although Spain enjoyed a flood of gold and silver from the Americas at this time, the increased wealth went straight into Philip’s war efforts. However, the 100,000 troops were soon failing to return sufficient spoils to Philip to pay for their forays abroad.
In a final effort to float the doomed empire, Philip issued government bonds, which provided immediate cash but created tremendous debt that, presumably, would need to be repaid one day. (The debt grew to 8.8 times GDP.)
Spain declared bankruptcy. Trade slipped to other countries. The military, fighting on three fronts, went unpaid, and military aspirations collapsed. It is important to note that, even as the empire was collapsing, Philip did not suspend warfare. He did not back off on taxation. Like leaders before and since, he instead stubbornly increased his autocracy as the empire slid into collapse.
Present-Day Empires: Again, the events above are not taught to schoolchildren as being of key importance in the decline of empires, even though they are remarkably consistent with the decline of other empires and what we are seeing today. The very same events occur, falling like dominoes, more or less in order, in any empire, in any age:
1.The reach of government leaders habitually exceeds their grasp.
2.Dramatic expansion (generally through warfare) is undertaken without a clear plan as to how that expansion is to be financed.
3.The population is overtaxed as the bills for expansion become due, without consideration as to whether the population can afford increased taxation.
4. Heavy taxation causes investment by the private sector to diminish, and the economy begins to decline.
5. Costs of goods rise, without wages keeping pace.
6. Tax revenue declines as the economy declines (due to excessive taxation). Taxes are increased again, in order to top up government revenues.
7. In spite of all the above, government leaders personally hoard as much as they can, further limiting the circulation of wealth in the business community.
8. Governments issue bonds and otherwise borrow to continue expansion, with no plan as to repayment.
9. Dramatic authoritarian control is instituted to assure that the public continues to comply with demands, even if those demands cannot be met by the public.
10. Economic and social collapse occurs, often marked by unrest and riots, the collapse of the economy, and the exit of those who are productive.
11. In this final period, the empire turns on itself, treating its people as the enemy.
The above review suggests that if our schoolbooks stressed the underlying causes of empire collapse, rather than the names of famous generals and the dates of famous battles, we might be better educated and be less likely to repeat the same mistakes. Unfortunately, this is unlikely. Chances are, future leaders will be just as uninterested in learning from history as past leaders. They will create empires, then destroy them.
Even the most informative histories of empire decline, such as The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Edward Gibbon, will not be of interest to the leaders of empires. They will believe that they are above history and that they, uniquely, will succeed.
If there is any value in learning from the above, it is the understanding that leaders will not be dissuaded from their aspirations.They will continue to charge ahead, both literally and figuratively, regardless of objections and revolts from the citizenry.
Once an empire has reached such a late stage as 8 above it never reverses. It is a “dead empire walking” and only awaits the painful playing-out of the final stages. At that point, it is foolhardy in the extreme to remain and “wait it out” in the hope that the decline will somehow reverse. At that point, the wiser choice might be to follow the cue of the Chinese, the Romans, and others, who instead chose to quietly exit for greener pastures elsewhere."
"15 Things That Will Become Priceless For The Middle Class In The Years Ahead"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 5/23/24
"15 Things That Will Become Priceless
For The Middle Class In The Years Ahead"
"As inflation creeps up on us all, there are things average Americans won't be able to afford anymore, according to experts. People have lost a significant share of their buying power over the past few years, and now they're having to cut back on everything. From occasional luxuries to daily necessities, Americans are having curb spending to make ends meet, and that trend is here to stay. Economic imbalances will even make it harder for our incomes to keep up with the rising cost of housing, fuel, food, and energy in the coming years. That's why we should prepare to tighten our belts if we want to achieve our financial goals.
Looking ahead, economists seem worried about the future. With personal savings dwindling and debt levels skyrocketing, life can become tougher for middle class families over the next five years, said Alyssa Huff, real estate expert and owner of Sell House As Is. Even simple pleasures such as vacations or buying nice things could become more challenging. Today, we compiled a list of goods and services that may soon be out of the reach of millions of households, so you can brace for what's coming next."
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Dan, I Allegedly, "No More Free Lunch"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/23/24
"No More Free Lunch"
"We are supposed to believe that every restaurant is doing well right now. Now we hear that McDonald’s will be eliminating free drink refills. There is no more free lunch."
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Bill Bonner, "Capitalism Never Fails"
"Capitalism Never Fails"
If Ford wanted to make more money, he had to produce more cars... better cars... and make them more efficiently. That’s how an honest capitalist economy works. You get by giving, not taking.
by Bill Bonner
"Economic power, measured on the basis of GDP
calculated according to the current rules, is fictitious."
- Emmanuel Todd
Dublin, Ireland - "We began this cogitation by wondering what was wrong with ‘the West.’ Even with 30 times more GDP firepower it still can’t win a war against Russia. Then we noted that economies can look good on paper - the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany - but actually be destroying wealth, rather than creating it.
We’ve seen, too, that much of Wall Street’s activity - supposedly trading capital assets - is little more than reckless gambling in meme stocks, NFTs, cryptos, and even good companies where the price bears no relationship to the real value. That is, these are not real capital assets at all - but phantoms and frauds. And if you looked at the trading activity in numbers alone, you’d get a very false idea of how much America’s businesses are worth.
Looking more closely, we began to wonder more broadly. How come we have to pass our bills onto our children - $35 trillion in government debt alone? How come the average guy hasn’t had a real salary increase in half a century? And in today’s news, Fortune: "A new American Airlines flight attendant will have a projected annual salary of $27,315 before incentives and taxes are collected. The union has also been calling out the low starting pay, which for a single-income household, meets the qualification criteria for the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or food-stamp benefits, in several states including Massachusetts and New York. "
Is capitalism failing? If we had a nickel for every time an economist proposed that “capitalism has failed,” we’d have to reinforce the floor joists. Capitalism never fails. It just adapts to whatever restrictions and circumstances we foolishly impose on it.
In the economy of Henry Ford, the US was a freer, ‘more capitalist’ nation. It respected the three things that make capitalism’s win-win deals possible - property rights, enforceable contracts, and real money (backed by gold). Today’s economy still has property rights, and contracts are still enforceable in government courts, though capitalism today is subject to much more meddling and intervention today than it was a hundred years ago.
Credit Money: The big difference is that today’s economy functions on credit, not on real money (cash). The change occurred on a now-familiar day, August 15, 1971. Thenceforth, foreign governments could no longer ‘settle up’ with the US by trading dollars for gold. The change was scarcely noticed. Even today, more people remember who won the 1971 world series - the Pirates - than the switcheroo that distorted the whole world’s money system.
Henry Ford got rich by making something people wanted. No government subsidies were needed. No vast “industrial transition” was announced. No grants given. No tax breaks. No program to set up filling stations all across the nation. Ford sold his cars at a profit. And he increased his workers’ wages, in real money, backed by gold. If Ford wanted to make more money, he had to produce more cars... better cars... and make them more efficiently. That’s how an honest capitalist economy works. You get by giving, not taking.
And today, yes, there are still a few genuine capitalists around. Elon Musk, for example, who is said to ‘sleep on the factory floor’ from time to time. And our new neighbor in Ireland, James Dyson, personally oversees the development and manufacture of hair dryers, vacuum cleaners and so forth. Most would-be billionaires, however, head not for the real economy of things, but for the financialized fantasies of Wall Street. They set up hedge funds... or go into venture capital... or do mergers and acquisitions; their hearts may be sooty, but their hands are clean.
Why Wall Street? Because that’s where the new credit-based money is. In Henry Ford’s day, credit came from savings... and savings came from work. You had to earn it - by creating more real GDP - before you could save it. You couldn’t just create new money or new savings “out of thin air.” Because, ultimately, you had to square up with gold.
But all that changed in 1971. Today, the big banks just borrow credit money from the Fed - often below the level of consumer price inflation. Thus, did the US begin another Misguided Economic Experiment... and another one that was destined to fail.
The new money system was based on an illusion - that the ‘credit’ provided by the feds was every bit as good as old-fashioned savings. That led to another, even more dangerous illusion, that the Fed could increase the amount of credit available as much as it wanted... and that it, rather than willing buyers and sellers, should determine interest rates. Naturally, they tended towards lower rates, not higher ones.
Donald Trump is a “low-interest rate guy” for a reason; that’s the way you make money in a fake money system. You borrow cheap, gamble on ‘assets’ (such as New York property) and, then based on the inflated values of your collateral assets, you’re able to borrow even more.
After 1971, activity (GDP) continued. But the new credit money and artificially low interest rates made it possible to buy things that didn’t really contribute to the nation’s wealth. The feds’ debt, for example, memorializes $35 trillion worth of spending. Every penny of it was recorded in the GDP. But like the Nazi’s bombs... or the Soviet’s soap... .most of what it bought was fake, worthless or transitory.
So too, much of the public’s $65 trillion in debt - all registered as GDP - was misspent. That is, the EZ credit made it possible for consumers and businesses to buy things they didn’t really need with money they didn’t really have.
But wait. The hamburger, eaten in 1995, and now recalled in monthly credit card payments, was real. It was consumed. It was enjoyed. Was it ‘fictitious’? No. But the GDP boost it gave was only half the story. That which credit giveth, repayment, default or inflation must taketh away. When the bill is finally paid, GDP should be reduced by a like amount (as money is taken out of the consumer economy to repay the loan). So, as long as debt is growing (with unpaid bills)... it gives us a false sense of real GDP.
It is as if you bought your neighbor’s car. GDP would go up. But later, suppose you returned the car and got your money back. Economically, it was a roundtrip to nowhere. No real increase in output. GDP recorded the sale as a plus... but not the repayment as a minus. ChatGPT explains:
United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) does not include debt repayment. GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced within a country over a specific period, typically a year or a quarter. It includes consumer spending, business investments, government spending, and net exports (exports minus imports). In other words, GDP only reflects half the transaction! Now, imagine that you borrowed the money to buy the car... and kept it. But still not paid for. GDP shows a ‘fictitious’ gain. It is ‘fictitious’ because there is an equal and opposite reduction to output still unrecorded.
Total US debt - now reaching $100 trillion - represents increases to output that still haven’t been paid for. How much of that is bogus GDP? Impossible to say. Some of that will be repaid. But the traditional relationship of debt/GDP is 1.4 to 1. So, the US should only have about $40 trillion of debt. Much of the rest is probably unpayable... about $60 trillion of phantom GDP, waiting to make the final leg of the roundtrip to nowhere. Hang on to your hat. It could be a wild ride."
Gregory Mannarino, "Scamdemic 2.0: 'The Government' Is Preparing Deployment Of New Vaxx"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/23/24
"Scamdemic 2.0: 'The Government'
Is Preparing Deployment Of New Vaxx"
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o
Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/23/24
"Con-Job 2.0,
New Pandemic Fear Grips The Markets!"
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Canadian Prepper, "Warning: What A Dr. Just Told Me About Surviving 'The End Of Days'"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/22/24
"Warning: What A Dr. Just Told Me
About Surviving 'The End Of Days'"
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Wednesday, May 22, 2024
"Scott Ritter: Putin's Nuclear Warning To NATO; Ukraine In Retreat; Israel In Big Trouble"
Full screen recommended.
Danny Haiphong, 5/22/24
"Scott Ritter: Putin's Nuclear Warning To NATO;
Ukraine In Retreat; Israel In Big Trouble"
Comments here:
"Going Broke To Save Your Lifestyle; 56% Of Americans Don't Have $1,000"
Jeremiah Babe, 5/22/24
"Going Broke To Save Your Lifestyle;
56% Of Americans Don't Have $1,000"
Comments here:
Gerald Celente, "Desperation Leads To Escalation"
Gerald Celente, 5/22/24
"Desperation Leads To Escalation"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"
Full screen recommended.
Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Will the spider ever catch the fly? Not if both are large emission nebulas toward the constellation of the Charioteer (Auriga). The spider-shaped gas cloud on the left is actually an emission nebula labelled IC 417, while the smaller fly-shaped cloud on the right is dubbed NGC 1931 and is both an emission nebula and a reflection nebula.
About 10,000 light-years distant, both nebulas harbor young, open star clusters. For scale, the more compact NGC 1931 (Fly) is about 10 light-years across.”
"Still, Sometimes..."
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“The early bird catches the worm. A stitch in time saves nine. He who hesitates is lost. We can’t pretend we haven’t been told. We’ve all heard the proverbs, heard the philosophers, heard our grandparents warning us about wasted time, heard the damn poets urging us to seize the day. Still, sometimes, we have to see for ourselves. We have to make our own mistakes. We have to learn our own lessons. We have to sweep today’s possibility under tomorrow’s rug, until we can’t anymore, until we finally understand for ourselves what Benjamin Franklin meant: That knowing is better than wondering. That waking is better than sleeping. And that even the biggest failure, even the worst, most intractable mistake, beats the hell out of never trying.”
- “Meredith”, “Grey’s Anatomy”
The Poet: Mary Oliver, "What I Have Learned So Far"
"What I Have Learned So Far"
"Meditation is old and honorable, so why should I
not sit, every morning of my life, on the hillside,
looking into the shining world? Because, properly
attended to, delight, as well as havoc, is suggestion.
Can one be passionate about the just, the
ideal, the sublime, and the holy, and yet commit
to no labor in its cause? I don't think so.
All summations have a beginning, all effect has a
story, all kindness begins with the sown seed.
Thought buds toward radiance. The gospel of
light is the crossroads of - indolence, or action.
Be ignited, or be gone."
~ Mary Oliver
"Our True Friends..."
“Our true friends are those who are with us when the good things happen. They cheer us on and are pleased by our triumphs. False friends only appear at difficult times, with their sad, supportive faces, when, in fact, our suffering is serving to console them for their own miserable lives.”
- Paulo Coelho, "The Zahir"
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Bob Dylan, "Positively 4th Street"
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