Monday, September 2, 2024

"The Twilight Zone"

"The Twilight Zone"
by Jeff Thomas

"Imagine if you will, a situation in which the economy of a nation is overdue to experience an economic collapse of epic proportions, but remains endlessly at the brink. Every day, a collapse is more likely, yet the economic house of cards remains in a state of suspended animation. Some people become increasingly edgy, while others become more complacent. Only a few choose to actually prepare for what’s coming. An impossible situation? Yes. But we’d be well-advised to recognize that it couldn’t only occur… in the Twilight Zone."

For those old enough to remember "The Twilight Zone," the quirky "what if" American television program, this episode introduction by host Rod Serling would seem to fit right into the show’s format. The program ran from 1959 to 1964, presenting somewhat unreal twists on the normal world we live in. Each episode would examine how people would deal with the episode’s situation and generally end with a moral lesson from Mister Serling as to the nature of mankind. Strangely, the above episode, as unlikely as it might have seemed a mere decade ago, is playing out in real life.

Stocks are climbing in price, whilst dividends are in decline or, for some of the fastest-growing companies, non-existent. Bonds are a worse bet, yet a bond bubble of epic proportion exists. The world’s governments are dumping US debt, yet the Fed is buying billions of dollars of debt each month. Indeed, debt is now growing at least twice as fast as the economy that must pay for it.

Quantitative Easing was invented to bail out banks in 2008, but continues to this day, long after the problem was claimed to have ended.

Benefits from Welfare and Social Security programs are at an all-time high, yet they’re underfunded to the point of certain collapse in the near future, independent of the other impending economic calamities.

Meanwhile, multiple unnecessary wars are being waged at a staggering cost to a nation that’s already insolvent, yet additional countries are being threatened with possible warfare if they don’t "behave."

We’re in the extraordinary situation of being in the longest boom period in history, yet there’s no real boom, only the illusion of one. At such a time, it would be predictable that those who have become worried would flood toward precious metals, as they have done for thousands of years, whenever the economic situation became untenable. Yet only a tiny portion of the world’s population are doing so.

Never in history have the major economies of the world been in an economic bubble that includes virtually everything. And yet, incredibly, this situation has existed for over a decade. Technically, we’ve been in a depression since 2007 and yet the bubble that should have burst back then simply keeps growing.

So, does this mean that the age of crashes is over, that the bubble can expand forever without bursting? Well, no. The bubble will most certainly burst, and the more inflates, the worse the eventual debacle will be. We’re therefore in a state of suspended animation, waiting for the shoe to drop.

Some of the best economic minds began to warn about the coming crash as its causes began to take shape decades ago. And almost to a man, they predicted that it would have taken place already, at least five years ago. But how might they have estimated a possible date for such an event? Economic crashes are notoriously difficult to pin down as to timing.

Well, all of them (and here I must include myself) made the assumption that conditions would have become so economically unsupportable by now that surely a collapse would have been a virtual certainty. And in this we were conceptually correct. Where we were mistaken was that all logic supported the assumption that, once conditions had reached that point, money would begin to exit the system, ensuring a crash.

Historically, this is always what happens. When a crash is near, the smart money makes an exit. Yet, this time around, whenever money has left the system, it has been replaced by dramatically increased debt, obscuring the fact that the smart money has begun its exit. Therefore, we’ve continued to appear as though we remain in a boom – the longest boom in history. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people are unable to recognize the plethora of signs that are indicating that the economy has been hollowed out. In addition, stats like inflation and unemployment have been fudged ever since the Clinton administration, to mislead the population into believing that they’ve not risen to depression levels.

The icing on the cake has been that the media – 80% of which are owned by the same six Deep State corporations – deliver a daily message that the economy is on the rise and the public should "buy, buy, buy!" Not surprisingly, those who provided an early warning to the coming economic crisis are regularly told, "You’ve been crying, ‘Wolf!’ for years. The crash hasn’t happened. You were wrong." And this criticism is not unearned. There’s no question that the timing has been prolonged beyond all expectations. However, the fundamentals remain the same and, today, are far more pronounced than they were in 2007.

Back then, we expected a small crash, which did occur, followed by the "eye of the hurricane," a quiet period of three to five years when a false recovery would take place. That "eye" proved to be artificially expanded by the Deep State’s diverse players, to the ultimate detriment of virtually all people. The second, major crash – predicted prior to 2007 to occur several years after the 2007 minor crash – is not only still looming; it’s more certain than ever before. The fundamentals remain the same and will reach their logical conclusion. To be sure, this has led those economists who have been tracking the pending economic debacle for decades, to have the sensation of suspended animation for several years.

Not surprising then, that the present state of affairs seems like an episode of The Twilight Zone, with the unfortunate twist that this is not a television show; it’s an artificially delayed reality. Whether it’s groceries, medical care, tuition, or rent, it seems the cost of everything is rising. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. At the same time, the world is facing a severe crisis on multiple fronts."

Dan, I Allegedly, "They Need to be Shut Down - The Recall That's Killing People"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly,  AM 9/2/24
"They Need to be Shut Down -
 The Recall That's Killing People"
"Boar's Head Recall: The Shocking Truth Uncovered! We've got a serious situation. Boar's Head, known for its high-end meats, faces a massive recall due to a listeria outbreak linked to multiple deaths and illnesses. This isn't just about bad meat - it's about trust, safety, and accountability."
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

 

Gregory Mannarino, "Markets, A Look Ahead: Expect A Rapid And Devastating Systemic Meltdown"

Gregory Mannarino, 9/2/24
"Markets, A Look Ahead: 
Expect A Rapid And Devastating Systemic Meltdown"
Comments here:
o
"Worst Financial Reset (Over-Priced Everything)
 with Adam Taggart"
Over-priced, unaffordable, everything (housing included)!
 Great Depression 2.0. moves closer to reality.

"What’s Coming is Worse Than 1929 Depression, It Will Last For Decades"

Full screen recommended.
Proactive Thinker, 8/24/24
"What’s Coming is Worse Than 1929 Depression,
 It Will Last For Decades"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
"Peter Schiff’s Last Warning:
 'The Crash Will Be Worse Than 2008'"
"Peter D. Schiff is an economist, stock broker, financial specialist, host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, and author. He is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Mr. Schiff has also written a number of books on investing over the years. He educates people all over the world about free market economics and the principles and benefits of individual liberty, limited government and sound money."
Comments here:

“'Law' As A Mind Trick"

“'Law' As A Mind Trick"
by Paul Rosenberg

"About half the time it is used, the word “law” is fairly close to a mind trick, and there is nothing noble, righteous, or even ‘conservative’ in that. More or less all of us were pushed into the trick, which complicates things because people don’t like to admit anything that smells like a mistake.

Having been taught, repeatedly, to “respect the law,” nearly all of us have decided certain things must be right, simply because they were “the law.” We decided this, not because we understood the benefits that would follow certain actions, but because of repetitive prodding. And so it’s important to be clear on this: To uncritically, reflexively obey is not respect. Respect requires understanding.

Our habitual obedience, as it happens, came largely from intimidation: Obey, or else teacher will shame you; the other kids will laugh at you; important people will criticize you in public. Please note all of these are primitive, degrading reasons, but they were thrust upon us as children and they very often stuck.

The really damaging part, however, comes after you obey out of fear: when you justify your past actions. Again, not many of us enjoy admitting our errors, but if we want to become honest, conscious adults, that is precisely what we need to do.

There’s Law, and Then There’s Law: In the modern West, particularly in the US, there are two different kinds of law (common law and statute law). Unfortunately they are usually rolled up together and placed under a single tag. That’s a major part of this problem.

If the early days of Western civilization, law was simply the process of determining what was just. Law was considered good if it were reasonable, fair, and had stood the test of time. And that’s all. Law, in the old days, was developed locally, and judges were simply trusted men who reasoned well. The form we in the English-speaking world know best was the common law of England, and it was precisely this type of law. In fact, the historical record shows early English kings having to adopt customary law.

To understand how law based on reason and experience turned into what we have now, this needs to be grasped: Until recent times, law was not legislation. I know this is contrary to what you’ve understood, but it’s true all the same. Legislation is primarily a modern invention. Law in the old days was not made by politicians or even by princes (those were edicts). Law was, as we said above, the process of determining what was just. The common law was created and updated by judges, not by legislators.

To buttress this point, consider that when English philosopher Jeremy Bentham died in 1832, he was revered as “the founder of modern legislation.” I won’t belabor this point, but consider these two statements, please:

Legislation displaces law that is based upon reason and experience.
Legislation is the edict of politicians.

Under legislation, reason and experience are not required. Politicians create this type of law and can change it on a whim.

So…Is it sensible to worship the words of people we also condemn? And if we hold those words above critical thought, are we not holding them above reality? Is that not a kind of idolatry? We idolized law because we were trained to, of course, but we’re adults now; we should correct the errors of our youth. The law of reason and experience always stands, simply because it is reasonable and useful. An uncritical respect for legislation, on the other hand, requires us to bypass our minds and sacrifice our will."

Bill Bonner, "National Security And National Survival"

"National Security And National Survival"
"The feds, desperate to hold onto power, clamp down. Free speech is banned. Critics are silenced. Political candidates are selected - not in the rough and tumble of real democracy - but by party insiders."
by Bill Bonner

Poitou, France - "By popular demand! We’re going to take today off. It’s Labor Day, after all. But if our ‘Primary Trend’ picture is clear... Western consensual democracies are becoming less and less consensual. The model - take from young, growing, prosperous generations... give to old voters - is becoming less attractive. Because younger generations are smaller than they used to be. And less prosperous.

And the Empire is so larded with the burdens of the past - programs that never worked... wars that couldn’t be won... transfer payments to parasites and shysters - there is little energy or money left for the future. Already, the US public debt is more than America’s entire annual output…and combined with private debt, it is nearly four times GDP.

The voters are fed up. They turn away from the center... towards the extremes. Bloomberg: "Populists Surge in Germany’s Regional Votes, Humbling Scholz." "Far-right AfD on course to win regional ballot for first time. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition was punished in two regional elections in eastern Germany on Sunday, with populist parties on the extreme right and left taking more than 60% of the vote in Thuringia and almost half in Saxony."

The Alternative for Germany is on course for a clear victory in Thuringia on 32.8%, according to projections for public broadcaster ARD. It represents the first triumph for a far-right party in a German state ballot since World War II, even if it’s highly unlikely to be able to form a government as it’s shunned by the other parties represented in parliament.

The feds, desperate to hold onto power, clamp down. Free speech is banned. Critics are silenced. Political candidates are selected - not in the rough and tumble of real democracy - but by party insiders.

The only way to keep the money flowing to key elites and the voters is to inflate the currency. And the only thing that will keep the public on board with the program is war. Nothing aligns the antediluvian passions of The People and the venal self-interests of the elite better than war. It marshals together the resources of the nation... and the emotions of the masses... for a great cause - national security... even national survival.

Anyone who resists can be branded a traitor. In the old days, he might have had his nose cut off. Today, they may cut off his credit card. But it’s Labor Day. No need to worry about the future now. So we will wait ‘til tomorrow to do our heavy fretting. As always... more to come."

Research Note, by Dan Denning: "On Friday, Bill mentioned that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested by French authorities for the lack of content moderation on the messaging service used by nearly one billion people. The authorities claim Telegram is used to facilitate drug trafficking and the distribution of illegal materials.

The assault on free speech and the promotion of censorship intensified over the long weekend. Former Clinton Secretary of Labor Robert Reich said Elon Musk should be arrested by ‘global regulators’ for ‘disseminating lies and hate’ on X (formerly known as Twitter). Meanwhile, a judge in Brazil banned Twitter in the country, joining a list of authoritarian countries blocking public access to the platform.

Here in the United States, Constitution Day is September 17th (Utah even has an entire Constitution Month that began yesterday!). Constitution Day commemorates the 237th anniversary of the signing of the Constitution in 1787. It was ratified by all 13 Colonies over a year later, with Rhode Island being the last to sign on (Rhode Island even proposed a comprehensive list additional rights and amendments that were not in the Constitution as ratified but would later appear in the Bill of Rights).

But an article published in the New York Times over the weekend makes the case that the Constitution is not only out-dated, it’s dangerous! The article rehashes the key points in a new book by Erwin Chermerinsky called "No Democracy Lasts Forever: How the Constitution Threatens the United States."

In this interview on MSNBC, the Dean of Berkeley’s law school says the most outdated and dangerous parts of the Constitution are lifetime appointments for Supreme Court justices, the Electoral College, and Article 1, Section Three, Clause 1, which gives each State two Senators. Reform of these outdated provisions, through statute or a Constitutional convention, may be necessary to prevent a new wave of secession in the coming years, or the end of the Republic altogether.

Unsurprisingly, all these ‘reforms’ would concentrate even more power - including the power to restrict and censor speech - with the Federal government and especially Congress. For example, if Senate seats were apportioned based on the size of a State’s population instead of the principle of Federalism (in which each State has two Senators regardless of size), California would have twelve Senators, Texas would have nine, and Florida and New York would each have six. I’m not sure Wyoming would have one!

In theory, these ‘reforms’ would be far easier to amend the Constitutions - and make ‘common sense’ and ‘reasonable’ restrictions on the 1st and 2nd amendments - if the size of the Senate were based on each State’s population and the Supreme Court was either expanded or Justices ‘term limited’ (no term limits for Congress, of course!)

What do you think? Which is the bigger threat to ‘democracy,’ the Constitution or the Congress? Exercise your free speech (while it lasts) by leaving a comment below. And from all of us at Bonner Private Research, enjoy your Labor Day!"

John Wilder, "The Drive To Kill The Constitution"

"The Drive To Kill The Constitution"
by John Wilder

“Hold your ground, hold your ground! Sons of Gondor, of Rohan, my brothers! I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of wolves and shattered shields, when the age of men comes crashing down! But it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!” – "Return of the King"

One of the places that people on the TradRight have made progress over my lifetime in actually increasing freedom is in the area of gun rights. This is good, and has been aided by Federalist Society™ acting as an institution to bring justices to the Supreme Court whose goals aren’t to modernize the Constitution or to use it to end up being the opposite document that it was intended to be.

Of particular importance to the Constitution is the Bill of Rights. The Bill of Rights wasn’t quite an afterthought, but a creation of the complaints from the Anti-Federalists that the new government had no prohibitions against what it couldn’t do. The Federalists said, “Hey, don’t worry, dudes. The Constitution is fine because there’s a very limited role for the federal government in the document. Even if it wanted to, the federal government couldn’t take away your right to own guns. Hell, you guys have private warships with cannons on them – how badass is that?”
The Federalists were worried that with a list of prohibitions against the federal government, then the only thing that would be considered as rights were the ones that they listed, and not the much broader list they took as self-evident. The Federalists thought that there were just too many places the government shouldn’t be able to go to list them all. The Anti-Federalists said, “No, man, here are our minimums. And we’ll add one at the end, the 10th one, that says the states or the people get to keep that long list.”

The Anti-Federalists won the day. They created a dozen amendments, of which ten were finally adopted as the Bill of Rights. Obviously, keeping men away from power is harder than keeping Kamala Harris away from the Night Train®, and government grew into a colossus, much larger and with more powers than the framers ever intended. And like the fat girl at the middle school dance, the 10th Amendment is the most ignored of all of them.

This was obvious even by the time of the Civil War. I think, rightly, that the U.S. Civil War could be renamed the “War Against the States” because the central role of the States in the governance of the country was essentially dead at the end of the war. It only required the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1912, removing the election of senators from the state legislatures and giving it to popular vote for a final gutting of the rights of the State.

Now the GloboLeft has assumed the reins, and with the states out of the way, the final push has come against the people. Here’s the way that Aldous Huxley described it: “By means of ever more effective methods of mind manipulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms: elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of totalitarianism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.”

That’s where we are now. Whereas the Constitution has been powerless to stop the creeping totalitarianism, the Federalist Society judges have been enough, equipped with just two parts of the Bill of Rights have kept totalitarianism from final victory.

If the GloboLeftElite see an obstacle, what do they do? Get rid of it. Thus, the idea is now being floated by the GloboLeftElite to ditch the Constitution. The writer of the latest hit piece against what remains of the Constitution is Jennifer Szalai, who wrote, “The Constitution is Sacred. Is It Also Dangerous?” in the New York Times®.

Ms. Szalai was born in another country (Canada) educated in Europe, and now, for whatever reason, seems to desire to talk about a country to which she clearly has little allegiance to. The most laughable passage tries to skew the attempt to interpret the Constitution as it to what it plainly meant and was intended as “ideology” and noting that this prevents judges from “doing nice things”.
Szalai also notes that judges reading the Constitution and doing what it says frustrates what “the majority of people want”. Apparently Szalai doesn’t know that’s exactly what it was designed to do: to stop a majority of people, hot with passion, from trampling the rights of the individual. Yeah, that was the plan.

Look at Australia, banning most weapons and putting ludicrous rules on the ones that remained legal. Why? Because they didn’t have the 2nd Amendment stopping a knee-jerk reaction to a mass shooting that seems really like it was a set up. The only path to get all the guns removed from the hands of the people in the United States is to pass a Constitutional amendment, and even that probably won’t work for decades.

A case in point of bad law versus the Constitution: after 9/11 the Patriot Act was passed to target “terrorists” even though it gives a government of colossal size powers that would have made King George envious and would have made George Washington reach for an AR-15.

Unless the GloboLeftElite could take over every method that people have to communicate with each other. Outside of websites here and there and places like Gab®, there were very few places that people on the TradRight could get together to talk to each other. Places like Gab™ were literally cut off from things like payment processors (Coinbase©, PayPal™ and many, many, many others).

The pesky 1st Amendment keeps the government from (overtly) clamping down on speech. Unless they ask Mark Zuckerberg to do it for them and he agrees because having people think for themselves about COVID was too dangerous. The press literally used those words – “thinking for yourself is too dangerous.” Look at the constant drumbeat to give away our freedom:
It’s the communications they want, first. As long as they can make us feel isolated and alone, the only person with dangerous opinions. Then, finally, they can win. Their goal is the removal of the freedoms we’ve cherished and slowly seen erode either through the cowardice of weak men or the avarice of greedy men or the schemes of bad men. The only thing that stands in their way? Us."

Adventures With Danno, "Grocery Shopping At Meijer, Best Deals And Money Savers"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 9/2/24
"Grocery Shopping At Meijer, 
Best Deals And Money Savers"
Comments here:

"Economic Market Snapshot 9/2/24"

"Economic Market Snapshot 9/2/24"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
o
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Comprehensive, essential truth.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
o

Sunday, September 1, 2024

"Walmart Rewards The Criminal, Fires Their Employee; Bank Runs And Pension Collapses Are Coming"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/1/24
"Walmart Rewards The Criminal, Fires Their Employee; 
Bank Runs And Pension Collapses Are Coming"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "Enough is Enough - Wild Crime Stories!"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 9/1/24
"Enough is Enough - Wild Crime Stories!"
"Enough is enough! Filmed live from the bustling streets of Huntington Beach, California, where rallies and chaos ensue, this episode exposes the rampant lawlessness plaguing cities like Aurora, Colorado, and San Francisco. Discover how vigilante justice might be the only answer to the authorities' inaction. From Venezuelan gangs to the shocking crime in Union Square, this is a no-holds-barred look at what happens when communities take matters into their own hands."
Comments here:

"Attitude..."

"The longer I live, the more I realize the impact of attitude on life. Attitude to me is more important than facts. It is more important than the past, than education, than money, than circumstances, than failures, than success, than what other people think or say or do. It is more important than appearance, gift, or skill. It will make or break a company... a church... a home. The remarkable thing is we have a choice every day regarding the attitude we will embrace for that day. We cannot change our past... we cannot change the fact that people will act in a certain way. We cannot change the inevitable. The only thing we can do is play on the string we have, and that is our attitude. I am convinced that life is 10 percent what happens to me and 90 percent how I react to it. And so it is with you... we are in charge of our attitudes. "
- Charles Swindoll

"The trick is in what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable,
 or we make ourselves happy. The amount of work is the same."
- Carlos Castaneda

Musical Interlude: Yanni & Samvel Yervinyan, "Until The Last Moment"

Yanni & Samvel Yervinyan, "Until The Last Moment"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Like delicate cosmic petals, these clouds of interstellar dust and gas have blossomed 1,300 light-years away in the fertile star fields of the constellation Cepheus. Sometimes called the Iris Nebula and dutifully cataloged as NGC 7023 this is not the only nebula in the sky to evoke the imagery of flowers. Still, this remarkable image shows off the Iris Nebula's range of colors and symmetries in impressive detail. Within the Iris, dusty nebular material surrounds a hot, young star.
The dominant color of the brighter reflection nebula is blue, characteristic of dust grains reflecting starlight. Central filaments of the dusty clouds glow with a faint reddish photoluminesence as some dust grains effectively convert the star's invisible ultraviolet radiation to visible red light. Infrared observations indicate that this nebula may contain complex carbon molecules known as PAHs. The bright blue portion of the Iris Nebula is about six light-years across.”

Chet Raymo, “The Sound And Fury”

“The Sound And Fury”
by Chet Raymo

“Not so long ago, I mentioned here Himmler and Heydrich, two of Hitler's most terrible henchmen. A friend said to me: "If there's no afterlife, no heaven or hell, then those two diabolical creatures got away with it. Their fate was no different than that of any one of their victims, an innocent child perhaps." And, yes, if there is no God who dispenses final justice, then we are left with an aching feeling of irresolution, of virtue unrewarded, of vice unpunished. Heydrich was gunned down by partisan assassins, and Himmler committed suicide a few hours before his inevitable capture, both fates arguably less tragic than that of their victims. How much more satisfying to think that the two mass murderers will spend an eternity in hell, while their victims find bliss.

This may not be a logically consistent argument for the existence of God, but it is certainly compelling. My friend says: "If there's no afterlife, then it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing. Of course, this emotive argument for the existence of God is balanced by another argument against his existence– the problem of evil: How can a just and loving God allow the existence of a Himmler or Heydrich in the first place. Here the argument is not just emotional, but consists of a thorny contradiction.

It comes down, essentially, to head vs. heart- what we would like to be true with all of our heart, vs. what our head tells us is an unresolvable conundrum. So each of us decides: To follow our hearts and make the blind leap of faith, or to follow our heads and learn to live with the sound and the fury. For those of us who choose the second alternative, the relevant words are that distressing coda, "signifying nothing." Our task is one of signification, of finding a satisfying meaning this side of the grave.

For many of us, that means finding our place in the great cosmic unfolding, and of recognizing that our lives are not inconsequential, that by being here we jigger the trajectory of the universe in some way, no matter how small, and preferably for the good and just. Yes, we make a leap of faith too, I suppose- that love, justice, and creativity are virtues worth living for- but at least it is a leap of faith that is not into the unknown, does not embody logical contradiction, and is consistent with what we know to be true, or at least as true as we can make it.”

“How Does It All End?”

“How Does It All End?”
by Bill Bonner

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards."
 - Soren Kierkegaard

“‘How does this all end?’ It’s a regular subject for guesswork here at the Diary. Of course, to see what’s coming, you have to look back on what’s come before.

Fantastic vision: In 1900, a survey was done. ‘What do you see coming?’ asked the pollsters. All of those people questioned forecast better times ahead. Machines were just making their debut, but already people saw their potential.

You can see some of that optimism on display today in the Paris Metro. In the Montparnasse station is an illustration from the late 1800s of what the artist imagined for the next century. It is a fantastic vision- of flying vehicles…elevated sidewalks…incredible mechanical devices, all elaborated from the Machine Age technology as it was understood at the time. There is no sign of hydraulics, jet engines, or electrical devices, for example, just gears and pulleys…and flying machines that flapped their wings like a bird.

But when asked what lay ahead, the most remarkable opinion, at least from our point of view, was that the government would decline in size and power. Almost everyone thought so. We wouldn’t need so much government, they said. People will all be rich. Wealthy people may engage in fraud and finagling. But they don’t wait in dark alleys to bop people over the head and steal their wallets. They don’t need government pensions or government health care either. Nor do they attack their neighbors.

The great illusion: In 1909, British politician Norman Angell published a bestselling book, "The Great Illusion," in which he explained why. Wealth is no longer based on land, Angell argued. Instead, it depended on factories, finance, and delicate relationships between suppliers, manufacturers, and consumers. And as this capitalism made people better off, he said, they wouldn’t want to do anything to interfere with it. It would only make them poorer.

One of his most important readers was Viscount Esher of Britain’s Committee of Imperial Defence. Set up in 1904, its task was to research and coordinate military strategy for the empire. Esher told listeners that ‘new economic factors clearly prove the inanity of aggressive wars.’ One of the most important components of the wealth of the late 19th century was international commerce. Capitalism flourishes in times of peace, sound money, respect for property rights and free trade. It was clear that everyone benefitted. Who would want to upset that apple cart?

‘War must soon be a thing of the past,’ Escher concluded. He was wrong. In August 1914, the cart fell over anyway. The Great War began five years after Angell’s book hit the bestseller lists. On the first day of the Battle of the Somme- 100 years ago- there were more than 70,000 casualties.

By the time Americans arrived in 1917, the average soldier at the front lines had a life expectancy of only 21 days. And by the time of Armistice Day- on the 11th day of the 11th month at 11:00am of 1918- the war had killed 17 million people, wounded another 20 million and knocked off the major ruling families of continental Europe- the Hohenzollerns, the Hapsburgs, and the Romanoffs (the Bourbons and Bonapartes were already gone from France).

The age of ‘isms’: After the Great War came a 30-year spell of trouble. In keeping with the metaphor of the Machine Age, the disintegration of pre-war institutions broke the tie rods that connected civilized economies to their governments. Reparations imposed on the Weimar Republic after the war sparked hyperinflation in Germany. The US, meanwhile, enjoyed a ‘Roaring 20s’, as Europeans paid their debts- in gold- to US lenders.

But that joyride came to an end in 1929. Then the feds flooded the carburetor, in their disastrously maladroit efforts to get the motor started again- including the Smoot-Hawley Act, which restricted cross-border trade. The ‘isms’- fascism, communism, syndicalism, socialism, anarchism- issued forth, like carbon monoxide. They offered solutions!

Finally, the brittle rubber of communism (aided by modern democratic capitalism) met the mean streets of fascism in another six-year bout of government-led violence: the Second World War. By the end of this period, the West decided enough was enough. Europe settled down with bourgeois governments of various social-democrat forms. The US went back to business, with order books filled and its factories still intact.

The end of history? The ‘isms’ held firm in the Soviet Union and moved to the Orient- with further wear and tear on the machinery of warfare in Korea…and later Vietnam. Finally, in 1979, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping announced that, although the ruling Communist Party would stay in control, the country would abandon its Marxist-Leninist-Maoist creed. China joined the world economy with its own version of state-guided capitalism. Then, 10 years later, the Soviet Union gave up even more completely…rejecting both the Communist Party and communism itself.

This was the event hailed in a silly essay by American political scientist Francis Fukuyama, ‘The End of History?’ Finally, the long battle was won. It was, wrote Fukuyama, the ‘endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.’"

Graphic: Salvador Dali, “The Persistence of Memory”

"Everybody's Pretending..."

"We are what we pretend to be, 
so we must be careful what we pretend to be."
- Kurt Vonnegut, "Mother Night"

"People are sad. People are broke. People are worried about money, people are worried that they're not enough and not amounting to anything and they don't feel good about themselves. People have rough times, and everybody's pretending it's not true, and we need to break that veneer." - Eve Ensler

“You go up to a man, and you say, “How are things going, Joe?” and he says, “Oh fine, fine... couldn’t be better.” And you look into his eyes, and you see things really couldn’t be much worse. When you get right down to it, everybody’s having a perfectly lousy time of it, and I mean everybody. And the hell of it is, nothing seems to help much.”
- Kurt Vonnegut

The Daily "Near You?"

Gilmer, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Tom Disch, "What to Accept"

"What to Accept"

"The fact of mountains. 
The actuality
Of any stone - by kicking, if necessary.
The need to ignore stupid people,
While restraining one's natural impulse
To murder them. 

The change from your dollar,
Be it no more than a penny,
For without a pretense of universal penury
There can be no honor between rich and poor.
Love, unconditionally, or until proven false.
The inevitability of cancer and/or
Heart disease. 

The dialogue as written,
Once you've taken the role. 

Failure,
Gracefully. 

Any hospitality
You're willing to return. 

The air each city offers you to breathe.
The latest hit. Assistance.
All accidents. The end."

- Tom Disch

"Accomplished Fugitives..."

“Human beings have always employed an enormous variety of clever devices for running away from themselves, and the modern world is particularly rich in such stratagems. We can keep ourselves so busy, fill our lives with so many diversions, stuff our heads with so much knowledge, involve ourselves with so many people and cover so much ground that we never have time to probe the fearful and wonderful world within. More often than not we don’t want to know ourselves, don’t want to depend on ourselves, don’t want to live with ourselves. By middle life most of us are accomplished fugitives from ourselves.”
- John Gardner