"Complexity Theory: the Avalanche and the Snowflake"

"Complexity Theory: the Avalanche and the Snowflake"

by James Rickards

"One of my favorites is what I call ‘the avalanche and the snowflake’. It’s a metaphor for the way the science actually works, but I should be clear: it’s not just a metaphor. The science, the mathematics and the dynamics are actually the same as those that exist in financial markets.

Imagine you’re on a mountainside. You can see a snowpack building up on the ridgeline while it continues snowing. You can tell just by looking at the scene that there’s danger of an avalanche. It’s windswept… it’s unstable… and if you’re an expert, you know it’s going to collapse and kill skiers and wipe out the village below. You see a snowflake fall from the sky onto the snowpack. It disturbs a few other snowflakes that lie there. Then, the snow starts to spread… then it starts to slide… then it gains momentum until, finally, it comes loose and the whole mountain comes down and buries the village.

Question: What do you blame? Do you blame the snowflake, or do you blame the unstable pack of snow? I say the snowflake’s irrelevant. If it wasn’t the one snowflake that caused the avalanche, it could have been the one before, or the one after, or the one tomorrow. The instability of the system as a whole was the problem. So when I think about the risks in the financial system, I don’t focus on the ‘snowflake’ that will cause problems. The trigger doesn’t matter.

A snowflake that falls harmlessly – the vast majority of all snowflakes - technically fails to start a chain reaction. Once a chain reaction begins, it expands exponentially, can ‘go critical’ (as in an atomic bomb) and release enough energy to destroy a city. However, most neutrons do not start nuclear chain reactions, just as most snowflakes do not start avalanches.

In the end, it’s not about the snowflakes or neutrons. It’s about the initial critical state conditions that allow the possibiity of a chain reaction or an avalanche. These can be hypothesized and observed at large scale, but the exact moment the chain reaction begins cannot be observed. That’s because it happens on a minute scale relative to the system. This is why some people refer to these snowflakes as ‘black swans’, because they are unexpected and come by surprise. But they’re actually not a surprise if you understand the system’s dynamics and can estimate the system scale.

It’s a metaphor, but really the mathematics behind it are the same. Financial markets today are huge, unstable mountains of snow waiting to collapse. You see it in the gross notional value of derivatives. There is $700 trillion worth of swaps. ($2.5 Quadrillion by other reputable estimates. - CP) These are derivatives off balance sheet, hidden liabilities in the banking system of the world. These numbers are not made up. Just go to the IS annual report and it’s right there in the footnote.

Well, how do you put $700 trillion into perspective? It’s ten times global GDP. Take all the goods and services in the entire world for an entire year. That’s about $70 trillion when you add it all up. Well, take ten times that, and that’s how big the snow pile is. And that’s the avalanche that’s waiting to come down."

- https://caperebel.com/blogs/

"This Is What The Final Stages Of A Bubble Economy Look Like Just Before A Collapse Happens"

"This Is What The Final Stages Of A Bubble Economy 

Look Like Just Before A Collapse Happens"

by Michael Snyder

"How does it feel to be living on the edge of a bubble just before it bursts? Ever since the days of the Great Recession, our leaders have been going to extremes that we have never seen before as they attempt to keep our failing economy propped up. The Federal Reserve has created trillions upon trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumped it into the financial system. Our politicians in Washington have been on the greatest debt binge in the history of the world, and as a result our national debt has soared to truly horrifying levels. On Monday, our national debt reached 35 trillion dollars, and even the New York Times is admitting that it is growing “more quickly than many economists had predicted…

"America’s gross national debt topped $35 trillion for the first time on Monday, a reminder of the nation’s grim fiscal predicament as legislative fights over taxes and spending initiatives loom in Washington. The Treasury Department noted the milestone in its daily report detailing the nation’s balance sheet. The red ink is mounting in the United States more quickly than many economists had predicted as the costs of federal programs enacted in recent years have exceeded initial projections.

To mark this milestone, the House Budget Committee released some numbers about how rapidly our debt has been growing over the last 12 months…$196 billion in new debt per month:

$6.4 billion in new debt per day.

$268 million in new debt per hour.

$4.5 million in new debt per minute.

$74,401 in new debt per second."

The third number in that list really stands out to me. $268 million dollars is being stolen from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day, and hardly anyone seems to care. We are literally committing national suicide. When a government borrows money which must be paid back later, prosperity in the future is being sacrificed for more prosperity in the present.

We were 10 trillion dollars in debt when Barack Obama entered the White House, and now we are 35 trillion dollars in debt. We have literally destroyed the bright future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have, but all of this borrowing has allowed us to enjoy a standard of living that is far higher than what we actually deserve. Unfortunately, we have reached a point where economic conditions are steadily getting worse even though our government continues to pile up mountains of new debt.

According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, homelessness in the U.S. has been growing by an average of about 10 percent a year since the pandemic ended…"According to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), since the end of the pandemic, we have experienced an average of 10% a year growth in homelessness. By the end of 2023, the U.S. hit its highest reported level in history since they began tracking it in 2007."

That same report says that the four states that have the largest problems with homelessness are California, New York, Florida and Washington…"The largest populations of homeless people are mainly in four states: California, New York, Florida and Washington. New Hampshire and New Mexico saw the largest increases in homeless people, with 52% and 50% respectively. New York came in third, moving up by 39% since the last survey."

In addition to growing homelessness, we are also seeing poverty and hunger rise all over the nation…"Combined data released last month from federal agencies found the U.S. is facing growing rates of poverty and food insecurity. In 2023, more than 12% of the nation was living below the poverty line and nearly 13% said they didn’t have enough to eat. Ann Oliva, CEO of the National Alliance to End Homelessness, said, “More people are becoming homeless for the first time.” This increase is due to people becoming un-housed faster. “They have no place to go so they end up on the streets.”

Our national debt has gone from 10 trillion dollars to 35 trillion dollars since Barack Obama first entered the White House, and our economy is still crumbling. This represents an epic failure of historic proportions. We have accumulated the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and most of the population is still struggling.

But all of this money has created an immensely painful cost of living crisis. Today, there are six major U.S. cities where you will only be able to live a middle class lifestyle even though you are making $200,000 a year…"Earning $200,000 a year might seem like enough to live a life of luxury. But in six of the 25 biggest US metros, rampant inflation in the past two years means this six-figure salary is only enough to be middle class."

Of course the vast majority of Americans will never make $200,000 a year. In fact, most Americans are just barely scraping by. As I discussed last week, one recent survey discovered that 71 percent of U.S. adults are stressed out about their “ability to afford everyday expenses”…"71% of Americans say they’re stressed by their ability to afford everyday expenses. Americans most regularly spend money on groceries, phone bills, utilities, gasoline and rent/mortgage payments. Grocery bills frustrate Americans more than any other regular expense. Utilities, rent/mortgage payments, gasoline and insurance payments round out the top five most annoying expenses."

Are you constantly stressed out about your finances? If so, you certainly aren’t alone. Unfortunately, things are only going to get worse from here. Decades of incredibly foolish decisions have set the stage for a colossal collapse. The bubble we have been riding will inevitably burst, and once that occurs the consequences will be absolutely excruciating.

Here in 2024, red flags are popping up on an almost daily basis. For example, shares of Ford Motor Company recently plummeted by 18 percent on a single day due to very disappointing results…"The last time shares of Ford Motor dropped by more than 18% in a day, as they did last week, the U.S. automotive industry was on the brink of bankruptcy during the Great Recession. Ford, which avoided bankruptcy in 2008-2009, is far from any sort of such disaster, but the freefall in shares after the company missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations is the leading example of the uphill battle automakers face for the remainder of the year."

As conditions get even worse during the second half of this year and beyond, our leaders will attempt to stabilize things by doing even more of what they have already been doing. But that will just make the cost of living crisis even worse, and it will just make our long-term problems even worse. Of course our long-term problems are rapidly becoming our short-term problems. The entire system is convulsing with tremors, and our bubble economy is slowly but surely heading toward a date with oblivion."

- https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Dan, I Allegedly, "Prepare for the Hard Landing NOW"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly, AM 8/5/24

"Prepare for the Hard Landing NOW"

"Recession ALERT: Prepare for the Hard Landing NOW. I'm diving deep into the economic turmoil that's unfolding before our eyes. Just 45 days ago, the economy was the topic of optimism, but now, the word "recession" is on everyone's lips. With job numbers fluctuating, inflation soaring, and even Warren Buffett making significant stock moves, it’s clear—we're heading for a hard landing."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pBbpXj-Fno

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Market Data Center, Live Updates:

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data

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Snyder Reports, 8/5/24

"Markets CRASHING As Millions Panic"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "World Stock Markets Crater! PAN-Sell-Off"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/5/24

"World Stock Markets Crater! PAN-Sell-Off"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

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Market Data Center, Live Updates:

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data

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"Nikkei Has Biggest Drop in History: 

Here’s What’s Causing the Global Market Selloff"

"Economic Market Snapshot 8/5/24"

"Economic Market Snapshot 8/5/24"

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Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...

Only the consequences are real - to you!

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"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 

You and I are not in the Big Club."

- George Carlin

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Market Data Center, Live Updates:

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data 

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- https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/

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Comprehensive, essential truth.

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

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Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."

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- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

Job cuts and much more.

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- https://www.zerohedge.com/

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- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

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- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

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- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

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- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

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"The more I see of the monied classes,

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

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Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...

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And now... The End Game...

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"A Time Capsule From The 1930s: What's Different Now"

"A Time Capsule From The 1930s: 

What's Different Now"

"If we compare health and endurance, well-being, security, general attitudes, family 

and community ties and values, we would conclude that it is we who are impoverished."

by Charles Hugh Smith

"We're taking care of my 92-year old mother-in-law here at home. She has the usual aches and pains and infirmities of advanced age but her mind and memory are still sharp. Her memories of her childhood are like a time capsule from the 1930s.

My mom-in-law has always lived in the same general community here in Hawaii. She's never lived more than about 10 miles from the house where she was born (long since torn down) in 1931. Listening to her memories (and asking for more details) is to be transported back to the 1930s, an era of widespread poverty unrelated to the Great Depression. Many people were poor before the Depression. They were working hard but their incomes were low.

Prior to the tourist boom initiated by statehood and affordable airfare, Hawaii's economy was classically colonial: large plantations owned by a handful of wealthy families and/or corporations (known as The Big Five) employed thousands of laborers to raise and harvest sugar cane and pineapple. Pearl Harbor, Hickam air base and Schofield Barracks were large military bases on Oahu. Travel between islands was expensive (ferries) and each island was largely self-sufficient. Even taking a bus for the 12-mile ride to the island's sole city was a rare luxury, an excursion that occurred a few times a year.

Plantation workers were not yet unionized in the 1930s, and wages were around $20 a month for backbreaking field labor - work performed by both men and women. Typical of first and second-generation immigrant communities of the time, families were generally large. Six or seven children was common and nine or ten children per family was not uncommon. Many families lived in modest plantation-provided camps of two bedroom houses.

Gardens were not a hobby, they were an essential source of food to feed a table of hungry kids and adults. Candy, snacks, sodas, etc. were treats rserved for special occasions and holidays. Kids usually went barefoot because shoes were outside the household's limited budget.

Staples were bought at the company store (or one of the few privately owned groceries) on credit and paid off when the plantation paid wages.

Credit issued by banks was unknown. Neighborhoods (kumiai) might pool a few dollars from each family every year and offer the sum to the highest secret bidder or by lottery. Those households that scraped up enough to open a small business often worked 12 hours a day, 7 days a week (or equivalent: 14 hours 6 days a week).

Neighbors helped with births and deaths.

Since no one could even dream of owning a car, transport was limited. Children and adults walked or biked miles to school or work. Many sole proprietors made a living delivering vegetables, meat and fish around the neighborhoods. (This distribution system is still present in rural France where my brother and sister-in-law lived for many years). Each vendor would arrive on a set day / time and housewives could gather to buy from the proprietor's jitney or truck. Children could eye the few candies longingly, and if they were lucky, a few pennies would be given to them to buy a candy.

Locally baked bread was delivered by boys. Milk was delivered by small local dairies.

Nostalgia is a powerful force, but I don't think we can dismiss the general happiness of my Mom-in-law's childhood as airbrushed impoverishment. The poverty seems obvious to us now, but at the time it was normal life. Everyone was in the same general socio-economic class. The plantation manager lived in a mansion with servants, but those with wealth were few and far between. In other words, wealth and income inequality was extreme but the class structure was flat: the 99% had very similar incomes and opportunities - both were limited.

Employment was stable, community ties and values were strong without anyone even noticing, and everyone had enough to eat (though not as much as they might have wanted, of course).

This secure plantation structure of work and community was still firmly in place in 1969-1970 when I lived on the pineapple plantation of Lanai (and picked pineapple with my high school classmates in the summer), and so I was fortunate to experience it first-hand. My Lanai classmates speak fondly and with a sense of loss when they recall their youth. Life was secure and protected, and with unionization of the workforce, the wages sufficient enough for frugal households to save enough to send their children to college off-island. I can personally attest that fond memories of 1970s plantation life are not distorted by nostalgia. These memories are accurate recollections of a far more secure, safe and nourishing place and time.

Compared to today, the typical 1930s diet was locally grown/raised and therefore rich in micro-nutrients. Grains such as rice and flour came from afar, but other than canned fish and similar goods, food was local and fresh. Little if any was wasted. People typically worked physically demanding jobs that burned a lot of calories.

There are many people 90+ years of age in our neighborhood. My Mom-in-law's brother - like many of the men in this age bracket, he was a World War II veteran of the famed 442nd unit -died last year at 96, despite smoking a half-pack of cigarettes daily until the end. A neighbor/friend just passed away at 99 (he was also a 442nd veteran). Our neighbor (cared for by her daughter and son-in-law, just like us) just turned 100. These people are generally healthy and active until the end of their lives.

If we look for causal factors in their advanced age and generally good health, we cannot ignore the high-quality, near-zero-processed foods diets of their youth and their strong foundations in community ties and values.

If we compare the financial and material wealth most enjoy today with the limited income and assets of the pre-war era, we would conclude they lived in extreme poverty and their lives must have been wretched as a consequence. But if we compare health and endurance, well-being, security, general attitudes, family and community ties and values, we would conclude that it is we who are impoverished and it was their lives that were rich in these essentials of human life.

The world has changed since the 1930s, of course. Materially, our wealth and options of what to do with our lives are off the charts compared to the 1930s. But if we look at health, security, well-being, community ties, social cohesion and civic virtue, our era seems insecure, disordered and deranging.

The irony is that those who have grown weary of our divisive, rage-inducing socio-economic system yearn for all that's been lost in the rise to material wealth and opportunities to spend that wealth. Those who grasp the emptiness of spectacle and material wealth and who have the means to do so are seeking the few enclaves that still have a few shreds of community and social cohesion left. These enclaves then get listed on "best small towns in America" or "best places in the world to retire" and the resulting influx of wealthy outsiders destroys the last remaining shreds of what everyone came for.

I recently harvested some of our homegrown green tomatoes, and my Mom-in-law gave me a handwritten recipe for Fried Green Tomatoes from her collection. The first ingredient was "two tablespoons of bacon drippings." Um, okay, if we were all working 10-hour days hauling 80-pound loads of sugar cane on our backs, no problem, but we're a household of three seniors, 69, 70 and 92. I think we'll substitute two teaspoons of olive oil for the bacon drippings..."

- http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/

- https://www.zerohedge.com

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Full screen recommended.

"1930s USA - Fascinating Street Scenes of Vintage America"

"Step back in time with us as we unveil a mesmerizing journey through 1930s America like you've never seen before! While the Dustbowl was heating up in the southwest, the country as a whole was fighting through the Great Depression. All the while, Americans were living their day-to-day lives, and getting on as best as they could. 

In this captivating video, we've meticulously colorized a collection of stunning photographs that capture the essence of a tumultuous yet resilient period in American history. From bustling cityscapes to serene countryside vistas, witness the contrast between hardship and hope that defined an entire generation. Discover the intricate details of everyday life as we explore the highways and byways of the past, complete with corner gas stations, storefronts, and bustling city streets. Journey through snapshots of the stunning architecture that emerged during this era, from Art Deco skyscrapers to quaint suburban homes. Each frame is a window into a world where innovation and creativity thrived despite adversity. 

Join us on this mesmerizing visual journey, as we honor the legacy of the past and celebrate the indomitable spirit of the American people. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to experience the 1930s in an entirely new light. Whether you are a history enthusiast, a lover of vintage aesthetics, or simply curious about the past, this video offers an immersive visual experience that will evoke a sense of nostalgia and leave you with a renewed appreciation for the beauty of the human experience."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Travelling with Russell, "I Went to a Russian Premier League Football Match"

Full screen recommended.

Travelling with Russell, 8/4/24

"I Went to a Russian Premier League Football Match"

"What is it like to attend a Russian Premier League Football match in Moscow, Russia. Join me at the game between Dynamo and Lokomotiv Moscow. Come behind the scenes with me as I get a chance to finally attend a game in Russia."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Jeremiah Babe, "Something Big Is About To Happen To America"

Jeremiah Babe, 8/4/24

"Something Big Is About To Happen To America"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

Full screen recommended.

2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

“Pamela and Randy Copus are the duo known as 2002. Randy Copus plays piano, electric cello, guitar, bass and keyboards. Pamela Copus plays flutes, harp, keyboards and a wind instrument called a WX5. Both musicians also provide all of the vocals on their albums, recording their voices many, many times and layering them to create a "virtual choir" with a celestial, angelic quality.”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Some spiral galaxies are seen nearly sideways. Most bright stars in spiral galaxies swirl around the center in a disk, and seen from the side, this disk can appear quite thin. Some spiral galaxies appear even thinner than NGC 3717, which is actually seen tilted just a bit. Spiral galaxies form disks because the original gas collided with itself and cooled as it fell inward. Planets may orbit in disks for similar reasons.

The featured image by the Hubble Space Telescope shows a light-colored central bulge composed of older stars beyond filaments of orbiting dark brown dust. NGC 3717 spans about 100,000 light years and lies about 60 million light years away toward the constellation of the Water Snake (Hydra)."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap191112.html

"Our Alaric Moment"

"Our Alaric Moment"

by The ZMan

"If you were living in the Western Roman Empire in the fourth century you probably knew that things were not going well. This assumes that you were prosperous enough to have time to think about these things. You could see that the infrastructure was failing and that the empire was struggling to maintain order. On the other hand, the decline had been happening for a long time so things may have seemed normal. Without some way to compare the present to the past, you only have instinct.

Today we have mountains of facts and figures to tell us how things are doing in the Global American Empire. There was a time not so long ago when these facts and figures made up the bulk of news coverage. Economists became court wizards, explaining the latest unemployment figures or trade numbers. They were also called upon to bless whatever polices were being debated in Congress. In the Obama years, economic data was the way we measured the glories of the empire.

That has all changed now. One reason is no one in their right mind takes anything the government says at face value. People had grown used to the way the media biased the numbers depending upon who was in office, but the mortgage crisis cratered the public’s confidence in the numbers themselves. If all of the court wizards explaining the numbers could not see the mortgage fiasco coming, then why should anyone believe them about unemployment or inflation?

Then you have the general lying that has become a feature of government. The lying about Covid not only disgraced the medical profession, but it finished off whatever trust people had in the official numbers. If the government lies about how many people are dying from Covid just to move more product for the drug makers, the government will lie about how many people are working or the inflation numbers. No one trusts the numbers because no one trusts the people issuing the numbers.

The point here is we cannot trust the numbers if the numbers have no relationship to anything we have experienced. When the end of the world has the same numbers as what most consider to be a golden era for the empire, those numbers cease to have any meaning to us. Throw in the fact that most people do not feel like they are richer than their ancestors and those inflated stock figures carry even less weight. We are left to rely on our instincts to judge things.

Of course, our sense of things, that gut feeling, is the result of a many small things that we experience every day. Three-quarters of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction because they go to the grocery store every week. They see that despite the crowing about inflation coming down, food remains expensive. Granted, no one is starving in America due to a lack of affordable food, but it is that thing they see every day that gives people a sense of things.

Think about something simple like a pint of premium ice cream. A few years ago, a pint was sixteen ounces. “A pint is a pint the world around” was true from peak of the British empire until just a few years ago. Now a pint is fourteen ounces. The price for the new pint is not the same as the old pint. The price is more than the old pint. A few years ago, the old pint of ice cream was five dollars. That is about 31¢ per ounce. Today the new pint is over seven dollars or 51¢ per ounce.

That is a seventy percent change in the price. This is one example and probably not a representative one, given that butterfat prices drive dairy prices. Even so, this is something people see all over the marketplace. Shrinkflation is a word because it is a thing that exists. People notice that the containers are getting smaller, or they are getting less full in the case of things like snacks. Meanwhile, prices go up. This subtly tells people that something is going wrong.

This brings us back to where we started. There were those in the Roman Empire who sensed the true state of affairs. No doubt some of them lived and died expecting things to fall apart, only to stagger on long past their time. Then there were others who internalized this reality and just accepted that no matter how grim things might appear, the empire was a permanent feature of life. The people probably just tried to make the best of things, even as they noticed the decline.

All of that changed on August 24, 410 AD when Alaric led the Visigoths into the eternal city, sacking Rome and setting off the collapse of the Western empire. The empire staggered on for a bit longer, but it was over at that point. All of those bad signs people had sensed probably seemed obvious in retrospect. Even so, the sack of Rome by the Visigoths was a shock to the world. The signs seemed obvious, but people still thought that the imperial order was permanent.

This is most likely the fate of the American empire. There are lots of signs that things are going poorly for the empire. Getting whipped by a collection of bronze age goatherds in the graveyard of empires should have been a wakeup call, but the empire is now picking fights with Russia and China. Meanwhile things deteriorate domestically, both economically and culturally. Yet, we stagger on, but somewhere out there is an Alaric moment just waiting to happen."

- https://thezman.com/

o

"The Decline and Fall of the American Empire"

"The Most Precious Gift..."

"Bad things do happen; how I respond to them defines my character and the quality of my life. I can choose to sit in perpetual sadness, immobilized by the gravity of my loss, or I can choose to rise from the pain and treasure the most precious gift I have - life itself."

- Walter Anderson

The Daily "Near You?"

Lower Hutt, Wellington, New Zealand. Thanks for stopping by!

"Living In A Potemkin World" (Excerpt)

"Living In A Potemkin World" (Excerpt)

by Jim Quinn

Excerpt: “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” - George Orwell, "1984"

“Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it.” - George Orwell, 1984

"I never thought I would experience the dystopian “fictional” nightmare Orwell laid out in his 1949 novel. Seventy-two years later and his warning about a totalitarian society, where mass surveillance, repressive measures against dissenters, mind control through government indoctrination and propaganda designed to convince the masses lies are truth, fake is real and the narrative can be manipulated to achieve the desired outcome of those in power, have come to fruition.

Everything is fake. I don’t believe anything I’m told by the government, the media, medical “experts”, politicians, military leadership, bankers, corporate executives, religious leaders, financial professionals, and anyone selling themselves as an authority on any subject matter. We are truly living in times of mass deception, mass delusion, and mass willful ignorance.

The term Potemkin Village comes from stories of a phony movable village built by Grigory Potemkin in the late 1700’s to impress his former lover, Catherine II, during her journey to Crimea in 1787. He supposedly erected fake villages along the banks of the Dnieper River, as her vessel sailed by, to impress her with the progress he was making on her behalf. After she passed, he would have the village disassembled and then reassembled further along downstream.

I guess this was an early version of fake news, though I am sure there were also plenty of falsities and propaganda in the newspapers of the time. But, in our current day, oppressors have taken lies, falsities, miss-truths, and propaganda to heights never conceived by Edward Bernays, George Orwell or Joseph Stalin."

Please view this outstanding, 

and most highly recommended complete article here:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

"The Constant Lying..."

 

"We Reap The Harvest Of Lies"

"We Reap The Harvest Of Lies"

By David Bell

"We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just a moral category, but the pillar industry of this country." 

- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

"Public life has become disorienting. Most people, by and large, previously expected to hear the truth, or some semblance of it, in daily life. We would generally expect this from each other, but also from public media and authorities such as governments or international agencies set up ostensibly for our benefit. Society cannot function in a coherent and stable way without it, as so much in our lives requires us to place trust in others.

To navigate the complexity of existence, we generally look for guidance to certain trusted sources, freeing up time to sift through the more questionable ones. Some claim they always knew everything was fake, but they are wrong, as it wasn’t (and still isn’t). There were always liars, campaigns to mislead, and propaganda to drive us to love or to hate, but there was a core within society that had certain accepted norms and standards that should theoretically be followed. A sort of anchor. Truth is indestructible but the anchor cable connecting us to it, ensuring its influence, has been cut. Society is being set adrift.

This really broke in the past four or five years. We were already in trouble, but now public discourse is broken. Perhaps it broke when governments elected to represent the people openly employed behavioral psychology to lie to their constituencies on a scale we had not previously seen. They combined to make their peoples do things they rationally would not; accept bans of family funerals, cover faces in public, or accept police brutality and the isolation and abandonment of the elderly. The media, health professionals, politicians, and celebrities all participated in this lie and its intent. Virtually all our major institutions. And these lies are continuing, and expanding, and have become the norm.

We are now reaping the harvest of untruth. The media can openly deny what they said or printed just months earlier about a new candidate for presidency or the efficacy of a mandated vaccine. A whole political party can change its narrative almost overnight about the fundamental characteristics of its leader. People paid as “fact-checkers” twist reality to invent new facts and hide the truth, unflustered by the transparency of their deceit. Giant software companies curate information, filtering out truths that run contrary to the pronouncements of conflicted international organizations. Power has displaced integrity.

Internationally, we are pummeled by agencies such as the UN, World Bank, G20, and World Health Organization to give up our basic rights and hand their new masters our wealth on claims of threats that can unequivocally be shown to be false. Paid-off former leaders, grasping legitimacy through the legacy of greater minds, reinforce mass falsehoods for the benefit of their friends. Once aberrations that a free media might highlight, fallacies have become norms in which the same media is openly complicit.

The frightening part is not the lies, which are a normal aspect of humanity, but the broad disinterest in truth. Lies can stand for a time in the presence of a people and institutions that value truth, but they will eventually fail as they are exposed. When truth loses its value, when it is no longer even a vague guide for politics or journalism, then recovery may not occur. We are in an incredibly dangerous time, because lies are not just tolerated but are now the default approach, at the national and international level, and the fourth estate that was to shed light on them has embraced the darkness.

History has witnessed this before, but on a lesser scale. In Germany, a way of running society built entirely on acceptance of lies led to the wholesale massacre of millions, from individuals whose disabilities were considered a burden on the majority, to people of specific sexual orientation, to entire ethnic groups. It was ordinary people like us who served to facilitate, and implement, this slaughter. A barrage of lies disoriented them, allowing them to be separated from their conscience or appreciation of goodness. As Hannah Arendt noted; "The sad truth is that most evil is done by people who never make up their minds to be good or evil."

And further: "The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction (i.e., the reality of experience) and the distinction between true and false (i.e., the standards of thought) no longer exist."

But this passivity of the ‘people’ is not necessarily inevitable, or applicable to society as a whole. We are all capable of implementing tyranny, but this does not remove our capacity to insist on equality (or, to use its analogy in this context, freedom).

The regime of lies from which Arendt fled was halted through an invasion of foreign armies. In the Soviet Union, Stalin’s regime faltered with his death. But we are now in a place where the all-devouring dictator is a coalition of fascist interests broad enough to be resilient to the death of any of its members. It has no physical borders to be invaded.

Although feudalism has long been the greed-driven default of society, we are now in uncharted territory, facing a devouring confluence of interests on a global scale with no obvious counter. They anoint national leaders from New Zealand to North America to the States of Africa and the EU and control what we then hear and read of them. No white knight or armed coalition is going to ride to our rescue as we cower in a bunker or simply keep our heads down, keep our thoughts to ourselves, eat what we are fed, and fit in.

It is only we who can actually make a stand. Otherwise, we – humanity – simply lose. But taking a stand is in the capability of all of us. We could first recognize where we are. We could then make hard decisions and risk being outcasts by supporting people we ourselves assess as telling the truth, and absolutely refuse support to those who are not. We will make ourselves really unpopular by doing so, as unpopular as those who protected neighbors rather than report them, or refused to raise the arm or the little red book. They were vilified, derided, and assigned to those the media termed vermin.

We could make a stand in workplaces, in conversations with friends and family, and it may be the last conversations they will accept. And we can do it through the way we vote, which may mean breaking with all we had once claimed to be indisputable. All that we thought we stood for, and that our chosen media had confirmed for us. And we will have no personal reward at the end – this does not collect likes and followers. As Arendt also said, "Forgiveness is the only way to reverse the irreversible flow of history." But forgiveness will also make us unpopular, even hated, by many who thought we were allies.

Or, we can buy into the fallacies, blank our minds, accept that the past never happened, and lie into the pillow of deceit the media are providing us. We can accept the assessment of liars and follow their lead over that of our own eyes and ears. ‘Truth’ can become subject to convenience and to what our friends and colleagues would prefer. We can all participate in the farce, embrace the comfort of blank self-deceit, and pretend to live life as we always have. One day, we will find how deep the hole is we have dug for ourselves and our children.

In politics, in public health, in international relations, and in history, the best times were always when truth was valued above all, however imperfectly applied. What the media, governments, and the empty husks that now direct them are offering is something quite different. Let us hope enough are repulsed by it to take the risks that are necessary. Don’t stay safe. Get to a place that is quite the opposite. Light overcomes darkness but it also makes it very hard to hide. A very dark future can be avoided, but not by keeping it hidden."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

"How It Really Is"

 

"The Middle East: War And Geopolitics"

Dialogue Works, 8/4/24

"Israel Has Crossed Red Line & Unthinkable Defeat 

Looms Against Iran and Hezbollah!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Full screen recommended.

Douglas Macgregor, 8/4/24

"Israel Faces Doom! 

Hezbollah-Iran Launches Devastating Revenge"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Full screen recommended.

Larry Johnson, 8/4/24

"Iran-Hezbollah Smash IDF, Push Israel Into Destruction"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Dan, I Allegedly, "Black Swan Event Imminent? Prepare Now!"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly, AM 8/4/24

"Black Swan Event Imminent? Prepare Now!"

"I'm diving into the possibility of a looming Black Swan event that could shake our broken economy to its core. From skyrocketing unemployment rates to surging inflation, we're seeing warning signs everywhere. People are saving money like never before, and even in places like Las Vegas, folks are opting for bus passes over cabs. The cracks are showing, and it's time we face the reality."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "Markets, A Look Ahead: It's Getting Closer And Can't Be Stopped"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/4/24

"Markets, A Look Ahead: 

It's Getting Closer And Can't Be Stopped"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-el2QUt4PZg

"Hanging by a Thread"

"Hanging by a Thread"

by Todd Hayen

"It is quite amazing how close people are to serious mental illness. What is serious mental illness? Suicidal depression, psychosis, anxiety that requires hospitalization, and frankly anything that keeps a person from living a functional life, a life with its share of sadness, trauma and suffering, but also with moments of happiness, fulfillment, love and laughter.

That’s serious mental illness. What about “not so serious” mental illness? Well, we’ve got a lot more of that than one could even imagine. And then twice that many hanging by the thread, just about ready to drop into depression, anxiety, personality disorders of a dizzying variety, sadness, emotional dysfunction, relational wackiness, on and on. It is a pandemic, and yes, a real one that isn’t a hoax.

In my opinion, nearly every human alive suffers from some sort of emotional/mental anomaly. Maybe not everyone but a lot (and if you find one who doesn’t - maybe some young couple dressed in loincloths riding horses on the beach of some idyllic island somewhere in the South Pacific - let me know about them, I would love to meet them).

I see a lot of people in my practice, and I can unequivocally say that they all have issues. Well, that stands to reason, of course. That’s like a dentist saying everyone who comes into his or her office has some issue with his or her teeth. But I also hear about my client’s friends and family, I also interface with people in the grocery store, on the streets, and in my own friend circle, and all of these people have emotional issues, or are hanging by a thread - me included, of course (although my thread broke long ago and I have been swimming in psychological muck for most, if not all, of my life).

Isn’t this the normal “human condition?” Well, I used to think so, but not anymore. There is, of course, a “normal” human condition concerning mental and emotional regulation. Everyone gets depressed and sad once in a while, everyone gets anxious and has emotional flare-ups. We can describe a “normal” mental state which includes a lot of ups and downs. What I am describing is more than that, it is what comes across as abnormal, intense, devoid of much reason, out of regulation, and bordering on crazy. We are all, for the most part, whacked.

Ok, ok, not all of us are whacked. I know I am; you might not be. You may fall into this narrow band of a “normally wiggy” person psychologically, and if you do, congratulations. I am not convinced, however, that there are very many of you who can completely escape the screwed-up environment we all live in (yes, some may be more adept at processing this shite show than others). I would venture to say that you more than likely have been bitten, in some way, by the agenda if you live on this particular planet. Even if only through being around people who are truly crazy - that’s enough to make you fit into this category.

But I am not really commenting on fringe stuff here. I am commenting on those of us who are very close to being certifiably “off” - close to an actual diagnosis. Whether it be run-of-the-mill depression or anxiety, or more exotic personality disorders such as Borderline, Narcissistic, Histrionic, or even any one of the array of psychotic maladies such as Schizophrenia, Bipolar with Psychosis, or Paranoia.

Let’s look at some numbers. Almost 3 million people have been diagnosed with depression in 2020 in the USA, 66 million with anxiety over the past year. In the same year almost 5 million were diagnosed Borderline Personality Disorder, about 5 million with Narcissist Personality Disorder, and almost 2 million with Schizophrenia.

About 10 million will suffer from some form of psychosis in their lifetime, almost 10 million have been diagnosed with BiPolar disorder over the past year, 15 million adults suffer from ADHD, and nearly 35 million children were diagnosed with this particular malady over the same year.

And these statistics only apply to people who have complained enough about their mental condition to their doctor, psychiatrist, or certified psychologist, to be actually diagnosed and put on the docket as having these mental disorders. No telling how many are suffering from mental illness and have not shared their condition with someone who is qualified to render an official diagnosis (psychotherapists, in Canada, are not allowed to diagnose).

Yep, it’s a big problem. And then there is the medication. It is estimated that approximately 76 million people in the US, of all ages, have been prescribed, and are consuming, some form of psychiatric drug (I would venture to say it is more than this). That’s a lot of folks, folks.

Do I put a lot of weight on official diagnoses and labelling? Not really. But regardless of what you think of diagnosis standards and criteria, people are suffering from something - even if you refrain from putting a name to it. This is easy to see without doing much digging. People seem to have lost a lot of their mental capacity to think, to think critically, and to function within the expected “norms” of society (whatever that is). People, in general, seem to have a very difficult time making any sort of rational decisions about everyday challenges in everyday life.

That’s a big statement, I know. And maybe this has always been true, but my gut tells me this is all due to the social pathology the agenda has brought upon us. And no, it isn’t all due to an intentional agenda to pulverize us into flesh-eating zombies, but by golly most of it is.

If you think about how far away humans are from living a natural life, it isn’t much of a stretch to believe we are all suffering from some sort of mental and emotional dysfunction. Although this has been slowly going on since humans stopped living in caves, we have been relatively skilled at staving off the pandemic of mental illness we now seem to be suffering.

Sure, humans have always been a bit kooky. But wouldn’t you say today it appears to be much worse than it was 100 years ago? 200 hundred years ago? The disintegration of moral values, character development, a misunderstanding of “right and wrong,” the dissolution of family, community, spirituality, gender, and even the sanctity of the human body has all had its toll on healthy emotional and mental processing. When we no longer can process properly, we lose psychic homeostasis, and disease sets in."

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

o

"Don't wonder why people go crazy. Wonder why they don't.

In the face of what we can lose in a day, in an instant,

wonder what the hell it is that makes us hold it together."

- "Grey's Anatomy"

o

"The worst part is wondering how you'll find the strength tomorrow to go on doing what you did today and have been doing for much too long, where you'll find the strength for all that stupid running around, those projects that come to nothing, those attempts to escape from crushing necessity, which always founder and serve only to convince you one more time that destiny is implacable, that every night will find you down and out, crushed by the dread of more and more sordid and insecure tomorrows. And maybe it's treacherous old age coming on, threatening the worst. Not much music left inside us for life to dance to. Our youth has gone to the ends of the earth to die in the silence of the truth. And where, I ask you, can a man escape to, when he hasn't enough madness left inside him? The truth is an endless death agony. The truth is death. You have to choose: death or lies. I've never been able to kill myself."

- Louis-Ferdinand Celineo

o

"Life is an end in itself, and the only question as to whether

 it is worth living is whether you have had enough of it." 

- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.