“Believe me, I know all about it. I know the stress. I know the frustration. I know the temptations of time and space. We worked this out ahead of time. They're part of the plan. We knew this stuff might happen. Actually, you insisted they be triggered whenever you were ready to begin thinking thoughts you've never thought before. New thinking is always the answer.”
"I’m not a fortune teller. In fact, the only things anybody knows about predicting – even if you gussy the concept up by calling it "forecasting" – are 1.) Predict often and 2.) Never give both the time and the event.
The worst offenders are those who pretend they know where the economy’s headed. Statistics – so often the basis of conjecture with regard to the economy – are so subject to interpretation, and so easy to take out of context, that most of the time they’re best used as fodder for cocktail party conversations. Still, as potentially wrong-headed and tendentious as the subject is, "the economy" is occasionally worth talking about simply to establish a clear point of view. In fact, I place the phrase "the economy" in quotes because I don’t even accept the validity of the concept, nor that of "the GDP"; they’re both chimeras.
The idea of GDP gives the impression that it is not individuals that produce goods and services, but rather a machine called "the economy." This leaves the door open to all manner of nonsense, like the assertion that what may be good for individuals may not be good for the economy, and vice-versa.
For instance, an advance in the GDP doesn’t necessarily mean increased prosperity: What if the government embarked on a massive pyramid building program, an archetypical example of public works? GDP might rise, but it would add absolutely nothing to the well-being of individuals. To the contrary, the building of the pyramid would only divert capital from wealth-generating activities.
On the other hand, if a scientific breakthrough was made which cut energy consumption by 80% for the same net output, or magically eliminated all disease, the GDP would collapse because it would bankrupt the energy and health industries. But people would be vastly better off.
Entirely apart from that, the whole idea of GDP gives the impression that there actually is such a thing as the national output. In the real world, however, wealth is produced by someone and belongs to somebody. We’re not ants or bees working for the hive. The whole idea of a GDP just allows the "authorities" to bamboozle people into believing they can actually control "the economy," as if it were some giant machine.
The officials pretend to be the Wizard of Oz, and Boobus americanus is trained to think they’re omniscient. Thus whenever the rate of growth slips "too low," officials are expected to give "the economy" a suitable push. Conversely, whenever "the economy" is growing too fast, the officials are supposed to step in to "cool" it. It’s all an embarrassing and destructive charade.
Nonetheless…I remain of the opinion that we’re headed into the biggest economic smashup in history. That’s an outrageous statement, and it’s always dangerous to say something like that. After all, the longest trend in motion is the Ascent of Man, and that trend is unlikely to change; indeed, it’s likely to accelerate. And it’s usually a mistake to bet against an established trend. Furthermore, science and technology will continue advancing, people will continue working and saving, entrepreneurs will continue to create.
Even most of those who talk of a recession tend to write it off as either a simple reversal of recent "irrational exuberance," or a passing change in people’s psychology, or a temporary shock. Unfortunately, it goes much deeper than that. Those things have very little to do with what recessions are all about.
A recession, according to the conventional parlance, is a period when economic activity declines for two or more quarters. That’s a description of what happens, but it’s really not very helpful, much like saying a fever is a period during which your temperature is above 98.6 F. A better definition of a fever might be a period when the body’s temperature is elevated as a consequence of fighting an infection, in that it gives you some insight into the cause as well as the effect. That’s why I prefer to say a recession is "a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital caused by the business cycle are liquidated."
What causes the business cycle? Excess creation of credit by a central bank (e.g., the Fed). The injection of artificially created money and credit into a country’s economy gives both producers and consumers false signals, causing them to do things which they otherwise would not do. The longer the upswing of a business cycle continues, the longer and more severe the down cycle will be. A depression is just a really bad recession.
One thing that – contrary to popular opinion – can help get an economy out of a recession is a large pool of savings; savings give people the money to invest in new production, as well as the money to buy that production. That’s why it’s the height of idiocy for pundits to talk about how patriotic it is to go out and shop. It can only deplete the capital that will be needed in the future, and deepen the bottom with more bankruptcies, stealing consumption from the future.
That’s why the Fed’s artificially low interest rates was such a bad idea; it encouraged people to save less and borrow more. This engineered decline may well, after a certain lag time, cause a cyclical upturn – but it will only aggravate the underlying problem, guaranteeing yet a bigger bust.
This isn’t just an American problem, because the U.S. is truly the engine of the world’s economy. But a lot of the drive behind the engine is the gigantic trade deficit. The hundreds of billions the U.S. sent abroad in the last year alone, after over a decade of increasing deficits, has caused a lot of capital investment that will become uneconomic, and created a lot of economic activity that will come to a screeching halt when that deficit inevitably reverses. The whole world is levered on what happens in the U.S.
The effect in economies around the world will be devastating. The Smoot Hawley tariff of 1930, which acted to collapse world trade, greatly exacerbated the last depression. It could be that economic conditions in the U.S. alone could do it this time, without the overt "assistance" of the government. I don’t believe we’re looking at just another cyclical downturn this time. We could be – but I don’t think so.
Of course, since the dollar is by far the biggest market in the world, constituting the reserves of almost every government on the planet, the de facto currency of probably 50 countries, and the savings of hundreds of millions of people around the world, when it collapses, it will cause a financial earthquake, Magnitude 10."
“A craven can be as brave as any man, when there is nothing to fear. And we all do our duty, when there is no cost to it. How easy it seems then, to walk the path of honor. Yet soon or late in every man’s life comes a day when it is not easy, a day when he must choose.”
Everybody and his dog is writing about the Trump conviction, so I guess I’ll add my few grains to the sand pile. Otherwise I’d kill something, preferably a New York judge. Or several of them.
On the observable principle that each succeeding President is worse than his predecessor, Biden has, barely, taken the title for godawful worthlessness and foreign-policy bafflement. But the question is not whether Trump has the morals of a politician, or whether he and some porn queen made the beast with two backs. How many readers would have done the same, given a shot at Stormy? The point is that the uniparty, the bicephalous brigandage that is the real government, has turned the entire political apparatus of Washington against Trump, while ignoring the behavior of its own miscreants.
The media make constant reference to the “insurrection” supposedly martialed by Trump against the Capitol. What “insurrection” for God’s sake?
During the Floyd riots, mobs surrounded the White House and threatened to assault it, resisting police who ordered them to disperse. In Portland they took over land in the city and declared it independent of the government, attacked police with Molotov cocktails and bricks, both being deadly weapons. In Minneapolis they burned a police station. This was insurrection on a massive scale. Martial law should have been declared, with the announcement , “Looters will be shot.”
Who was prosecuted for insurrection? Why not? Because Floyd was black. The looters were black. The white rioters were heavily middle class and Democrats. They were against Trump.
Yet savage sentences have been handed out to the mob of overexcited dingalings and damned fools who invaded the Capitol. Yes, their behavior was illegal and yes, they deserved punishment – but not the wildly disproportionate time they got. The idea that it was an attempted coup can only be sold to yokels with no faint idea of what a coup is or how coups are done.
All of this is utterly political. Who is prosecuted for what depends on almost anything but law. Trump is tried for a mildly sordid affair with a porn star but Biden is not prosecuted for being neck-deep in corruption in Ukraine along with his dirtball son. Curious, isn’t it, that a President known for this corruption frantically sends more and more money to Kiev. What do the Ukrainians know that we don’t? Diddling a porn star is without meaning. Being corruptly involved with the government of a country militarily entangled with America in a shooting war leaves open a real question of who is getting paid for what, and who has what dirt on whom.
There is a saying in sports reporting that you can bullshit the fans, but you can’t bullshit the players. When Violeta and I go to Washington we stay with journalist friends, and they are friends, on Capitol Hill, across the street from Lincoln Park. One is a high-end executive with a major network. The Hill crawls with media rabble and opinion mechanics. All of these people are wildly partisan against Trump. What they do cannot remotely be call journalism. One has in her kitchen, always on, a television, tuned to MSNBC. I’ll guess that seventy percent of its non-commercial time consists of raving, raving, raving against Trump. There is no trace of reportorial self-respect, the principle of always seeking the other side, of fact-checking. In newspapering a saying used to be, “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.” Not now. Pure political advocacy.
At higher levels of the media anthill, people are not stupid Yet many seem to know little of the world beyond the ring road. Nor do they care. They do not even try to practice real journalism. Another dictum in the reporter’s trade was, “A burro is an ass. A burrow is a hole in the ground. A reporter should know the difference.” They usually don’t, at least as regards the mysterious and inexplicable reaches of Flyover Land.
For all the brainsthat many of them deploy, they are not savvy pols. In Trump’s first victory, Washington had no idea why he won, why people voted for him, no idea of the anger in the country and why it was there.
On Capitol Hill, you sit around the kitchen drinking good wine and wondering whether to order out for Thai or maybe from this chic Mongolian kitchen, or perhaps go to this really great Turkish restaurant. Even in the kitchen it can be at least a hundred bucks for two people, delivered by motorcycle including wine and tip. I’m not sure, because no one bothers to check.
In Middle America, where sometimes the water isn’t fit to drink, the Deplorables think that Saturday night out for the family at KFC is a treat. A meal at an Indian restaurant in classy Washington would be remembered for a lifetime. Vi and I were recently guests in DC at an all-you-can-eat Brazilian joint where doing the squat-and-gobble will set you back at least a cool C-note each. The place was packed. This is Washington. Those people hadn’t been in a KFC since college, if then.
The contempt of Washo-York elites for most of the country is intense, and the hostility is reciprocated. If Trump goes to jail, I will vote for him because of his incarceration and, if he doesn’t, from loathing of Washington. So there.
Probably none of this matters. America is so far gone in chicanery, bribery, price-fixing, and general immorality that repair is not possible. The country may go parboiled in an ego-fueled nuclear explosion. It may die gurgling as it drowns in moral slime. But I will vote for Trump , in jail or not, from sheer loathing of the whole fetid cloacal gush in Washington. He isn’t fit to be head of toilet maintenance in a Ugandan bus station, but neither is Joe, It will be a joy to see the faces on Cap Hill if Trump pulls it off."
"The state of California is completely upside down financially. We have such a large deficit that the governor is proposing to eliminate things like police officers and jails. Welcome to the lunacy of California."
Putin's Bold Move - Arming Global Enemies of NATO!"
"In this video, Douglas Macgregor reveals shocking details about Putin's asymmetric warfare strategy and its potential impacts on NATO. We will explore Medvedev's statements on supplying weapons to anti-US nations and how Russia is leveraging proxy warfare to pressure NATO. Macgregor also analyzes the defense agreements between Russia and Belarus and their strategic implications. Don't miss out on crucial updates and in-depth analysis from military expert Douglas Macgregor."
"Dire warning from economist Jim Rickards! Must-read article I hope everyone will share with their sleeping friends and family members; If our people knew how close we are to nuclear war they would be in the streets demanding peace talks now!"
by Leo Hohmann
"I’ve been warning for two years about NATO putting itself on an escalator toward World War III. Many people thought I was a little over the top in my analysis, but now suddenly I’m not feeling so alone in my assessment. Over the last several weeks and months, many other astute observers have finally taken off the blinders, opened their eyes and acknowledged just how close we are to the point of no return in the rush to war with the world’s largest nuclear-armed country, Russia.
I can’t tell you how many times in recent weeks I’ve read or heard comparisons to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The only difference is back then we had sane American leaders who realized the importance of diplomacy and talking directly with our adversaries in order to avoid a devastating nuclear exchange. Some Westerner commentators, even some very smart ones, still deny that nuclear war is a real possibility in today’s world, or if it is, it’s very remote. My sense is that it’s not remote at all, given the leadership we now have in Washington.
If what we’ve seen so far is any indication, the Third World War will start as a conventional war between the U.S./NATO and Russia and quickly escalate to nuclear warheads exploding on military and civilian targets.
Why to I believe this? It doesn’t matter if you like Putin, hate Putin or are indifferent towards Putin, there are some indisputable facts:
• Putin is a popular nationalist leader with the backing of 70 percent or more of the Russian people who believe NATO has become an offensive, existential threat to Russia’s existence.
• It is also a fact that NATO has expanded greatly over the past 20 years, against Putin’s clear warnings about how that could destabilize East-West relations. Just in the last year, NATO has added Finland and Sweden to its ranks, while treating Ukraine as if it is a de facto NATO partner and promising to make it an official member sooner rather than later. This completes the surrounding of Russia’s western flank by hostile countries, all of which will host Western military assets.
• Fact number three: Given Russia’s history of being invaded three times from the West, each time through the area of Ukraine, Putin will not let it happen a fourth time. He will blow up Europe and the U.S. before he lets his country be invaded and conquered by globalist puppet politicians in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin. So, if these puppet politicians persist in poking the bear, there will be no winners. We will all suffer and many of us will die, either instantly or slow and painfully via nuclear fallout.
Below is an excellent analysis by economist and attorney James Rickards explaining how we got to this point and why it’s not likely to end well."
"The steady path toward World War III continues. U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine in the war with Russia has been one long failure, but that hasn’t stopped them from escalating the war with new weapons and tactics. Russia has met the escalation with its own escalation every step of the way. At what point do rational leaders in the West (if there are any left) pause, consider that the war is lost in Ukraine, deescalate and seek a treaty to end the war? There’s no sign of that yet. In fact, all of the signs point to further escalation, which is a sure path to nuclear war. What good has escalation accomplished?
The West supplied Ukraine with HIMARS precision-guided artillery, but that largely failed because the Russians quickly learned how to jam the GPS guidance systems, so the missiles went off course. That doesn’t mean the Russians shoot down or jam every HIMARS rocket Ukraine launches. Some will always get through. But overall, their effectiveness has been limited compared with expectations.
The U.S. and NATO also supplied Ukraine with Abrams, Leopard and Challenger tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles that have been left burning on the battlefield. They also require intensive maintenance Ukraine can’t necessarily provide, and are often unsuited for the battlefield conditions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainian soldiers have actually expressed a preference for Russian-made equipment over NATO’s.
Not Wonder Weapons: Meanwhile, the Patriot anti-missiles systems cannot shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles and have been destroyed one-by-one at a cost of $1 billion each. F-16s are the next wonder weapon promised. But Russia fields the most sophisticated air defense system in the world. Many planes will be shot down by Russian S-400 anti-aircraft batteries and other systems.
These planes are also old, obsolete models from NATO inventories at the end of their service lives. And they can’t even be flown by Ukrainian pilots since they barely read English (the training manuals and maintenance manuals are all in English) and have not had enough time to train. It takes about two years to become a competent F-16 fighter pilot; the Ukrainians have barely had six months to learn. F-16s are also unsuited for the often rugged airfield conditions in Ukraine (they require pristine runways so debris doesn’t get sucked into their engines on takeoff). They can be operated from NATO bases but that opens another can of worms.
NATO’s Latest Harebrained Scheme: What’s the next harebrained scheme from NATO? Here’s the latest example. The U.S. and its allies have green-lighted missile attacks deep inside Russia using U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of up to 190 miles. These attacks have hit civilian targets such as the Russian city of Belgorod and critical military targets such as the Russian nuclear missile radar warning arrays. Both types of attacks are prompting a severe Russian response, including the final destruction of the entire Ukrainian power grid.
The attack on Russia’s early warning system is particularly provocative. Ukraine used U.K.-supplied drones to strike this radar system used by Russia to detect incoming nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. and Russia already adhere to what’s called the “launch on warning” doctrine. This means that if you detect incoming nuclear missiles, you don’t wait for them to hit their targets. Instead, you launch your counterattack as soon as you detect the missiles. When it comes to nuclear war, it’s use it or lose it. That puts the world on a hair trigger. Hitting a radar facility that’s part of a nuclear defense creates a blind spot in that defense and makes the hair trigger even more sensitive and launch prone.
And while Ukraine may have technically launched the missiles into Russia, it could not have done so without precise targeting data provided by the U.S. and its NATO allies. How do you think the U.S. would react if Mexico attacked U.S. targets using targeting data provided by Russia? It would directly implicate Russia and hold it responsible.
Here’s another question: Why would Ukraine attack this radar system at all? Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear missiles so it has no reason to compromise Russia’s nuclear defenses. The radar has no impact on the ground war in Ukraine. It wasn’t an airfield or ammo depot or any other militarily relevant target. This plan is just another example of dangerous escalation by the U.S. and NATO and moves the world one step closer to nuclear war. Ukraine is all too happy to comply.
“Don’t Worry!” Proponents of escalation dismiss these concerns, saying we’ve already crossed multiple “red lines” and Russia hasn’t directly retaliated against us. Maybe against Ukraine, but not us. We can therefore go ahead and cross another red line, the Russians won’t do anything.
First off, that just provides more evidence that Vladimir Putin isn’t some bloodthirsty maniac who can’t be deterred. He obviously can be, and clearly recognizes the dangers of escalation. He doesn’t want war with the U.S. and NATO. Why would he?
Secondly, and more importantly, NATO’s arming and equipping of Ukraine was never a red line for Russia. Western observers simply assumed that providing HIMARS, ATACMSs and tanks would be red lines for Russia. But Russia never specifically said they were. They warned about the overall threat of escalation, but these weren’t specific red lines.
But direct attacks on Russian soil are a different matter. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin himself have issued specific warnings about NATO facilitation of attacks within Russia itself. That’s the difference. Here’s what Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, had to say: "Russia regards all long-range weapons used by Ukraine as already being directly controlled by servicemen from NATO countries. This is no military assistance, this is participation in a war against us. And such actions could well become a casus belli. Nobody today can rule out the conflict’s transition to its final stage."
It doesn’t take a genius to understand what he means by the conflict’s “final stage.” Now, Medvedev often issues provocative statements. But listen to the comments of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. It’s about as strongly worded as a diplomatic statement can get: "I would like to warn American leaders against miscalculations that could have fatal consequences. For unknown reasons, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive. Except the reasons aren’t unknown. It’s because the West is led by incompetent and reckless people who don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t understand that they’re playing with fire."
How Nuclear War Starts: I began studying nuclear war fighting in 1969 and have continued my studies for decades, which includes all the leading thinkers about nuclear war. While the experts disagree in certain respects, they all agree on one thing: The most likely path to nuclear war is escalation. No one wakes up and says, “Nice day for a nuclear war. Let’s start one.”
Instead, war will be the result of a process of one side raising the stakes, the other side responding in kind and escalating further and so on in successive rounds until one party is backed into a corner and has no choice but to use nuclear weapons in an existential response.
Ironically, in that situation, the party that is less threatened may actually start the nuclear war in order to get the first-strike advantage. The result is annihilation: not just World War III, but possibly the end of most human life on Earth. Those that survive would probably wish they hadn’t.
This is incomprehensible. Ukraine is trying to drag the U.S. directly into the war with U.S. boots on the ground. Events may not get that far. We may be destroyed in a nuclear World War III if this reckless escalation continues. Will anyone stop it?
"Sadovod Market in Moscow, Russia is the largest open trading market in all of Russia. With more than 9,500 individual traders spread over a 40 acre territory, and more than 91 million shoppers per year."
"15 Grocery Chains Collapsing In Front Of Our Eyes"
"The current economic landscape is presenting unprecedented challenges for businesses across various sectors, and the grocery industry is no exception. The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic has left many companies grappling with out-of-stock products, labor shortages, and increased operational costs. These issues are exacerbated by higher competition within the industry, as well as inflationary pressures that keep the cost of groceries high for consumers.
Grocery chains, which serve as essential lifelines for communities, have been particularly vulnerable economic fluctuations in recent years. Problems down the supply chain have resulted in inconsistent product availability, causing frustration for both consumers and retailers. Labor disruptions, including shortages and increased wages, have further strained the financial health of grocery stores, leading to tighter profit margins. Additionally, the cost of supplies, transportation, and energy has risen significantly, squeezing company’s bottom lines even further.
Inflation, currently at a high level, has also played a significant role in the struggles faced by grocery chains. Rising prices for essential goods have forced consumers to watch their spending, which has caused sales to decline and resulted in lower foot traffic at stores. This, coupled with fierce competition from both traditional retailers and emerging online services, has created a perfect storm that threatens the viability of many established chains.
These issues have led to a series of negative outcomes for numerous companies in the food industry across the United States in 2024. From plummeting stock market performance and gloomy forecasts by executives to store closures and layoffs, the signs of trouble are evident. This list highlights some American grocers that have been showing signs of significant distress."
This song is from our album, "Time Traveler." This album was inspired by memories of the paths we chose to follow and of the friends that journeyed with us. Some friends now live only in our hearts, immortal. But somewhere, someday we will pick up again, right where we left off. The journey never ends.
"If not perfect then this spiral galaxy is at least one of the most photogenic. An island universe of about 100 billion stars, 32 million light-years away toward the constellation Pisces, M74 presents a gorgeous face-on view. Classified as an Sc galaxy, the grand design of M74's graceful spiral arms are traced by bright blue star clusters and dark cosmic dust lanes.
This sharp composite was constructed from image data recorded by the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera for Surveys. Spanning about 30,000 light-years across the face of M74, it includes exposures recording emission from hydrogen atoms, highlighting the reddish glow of the galaxy's large star-forming regions. With a lower surface brightness than most galaxies in the Messier catalog, M74 is sometimes known as the Phantom Galaxy."
"In Salley Vickers' novel, "Where Three Roads Meet," the shade of Tiresias, the blind seer of the Oedipus myth, visits Sigmund Freud in London during the psychoanalyst's final terrible illness. In a series of conversations, Tiresias retells the story of Oedipus- he who was fated to kill his father and sleep with his mother- a story at the heart of Freud's own theory of the human psyche. At one point in the conversations, as Tiresias and Freud discuss the extent to which our lives are fated, the question of immortality arises. Freud says of Oedipus that "he made his story into an immortal one, so far as any story is." And Tiresias replies, "But, Dr. Freud, stories are all we humans have to make us immortal."
Oedipus lives on, whether he lived or not in actuality. Sophocles lives in our consciousness as vigorously as ever he did in life. They live because their stories touch something resonant and unchanging in human nature. Vickers suggests that what makes the Oedipal story immortal is not any necessary tendency of humans to act out the Oedipal myth, a la Freud, but rather Oedipus's rage to know the truth- or become conscious of a truth he has known all along and suppressed - even though the truth will be his undoing.
The poet Muriel Rukesyser got it exactly right when she said: "The universe is made of stories, not atoms." Even atoms are stories we tell about the world, having first paid close attention to how the world works. The plays of Sophocles and the other Greek dramatists live on not because their authors were immortal, but because nature endures and their stories tell us something that rings true about enduring nature. And, like Oedipus, we have a rage to know, even if knowledge will unseat some of our more comfortable illusions.
"Someone once told me that time is a predator that stalked us all our lives. But I rather believe that time is a companion who goes with us on the journey, that reminds us to cherish every moment because they'll never come again. What we leave behind is not as important as how we live it. After all, Number One, we're only mortal."
"One of the problems with life in Modern Mayberry is that it often moves at a fairly slow pace. Especially in the time when an adult is focused on raising kids, the days tend to blur one into the next. If your life is good, this isn’t really a problem. When I was younger, my life was spent going to weddings. Now that I’m older, more time is spent going to funerals. It is important to not get mixed up as to which you’re at, although sometimes “My condolences,” is appropriate at a wedding and I’d almost be willing to bet $20 that at least one person will say “Congratulations!” after my funeral. However, in the event that I’m wrong, collecting on that bet might be a problem.
I can live with that. Being positive, being for things and knowing that, in the end it’s all going to work out keeps me positive. In most cases (most, not all!) the things I write about don’t make me angry, either. Again, stress on the “mostly”. And I try not to get worked up about events occurring half-a-world away that I can’t control or even much influence. Things are what they are. And, for most of us, things are generally pretty good on a day-to-day basis, even when things aren’t perfect. Even on a bad day, most parts of the day are good. The thing that gets us is built into the doomscrolling: spending time worrying about things that simply have not happened.
I write about the coming Civil War 2.0 not in hopes that it comes, rather to make people aware that it’s coming. Do I sit and worry about it daily? No! That would take away from the time I spend thinking about the Roman Empire.
In this moment, there are things that I could let bother me. However, I realize that letting them bother me gives them power over me when that’s the last thing I want. “Take not counsel of your fears,” is attributed to George S. Patton, Jr. I’m sure other people said the same thing in similar ways in the thousands of years that people have been saying things, but when Patton says it, well, it’s been said.
If I let my fears fill me up, I live a life of fear regardless of if it’s a perfect 63°F, and I have a wonderful cigar, and a great book beside me while sitting in a comfortable chair. I think fear comes to people as they age. I certainly saw Pa Wilder get more and more cautious as he aged. I could give a few examples, but it doesn’t much matter. I did notice. And when I saw the tendency to do it start to crop up in myself, at least I understood what was going on and I could choose to be cautious or choose to be bold.
I think, however, that as I get older it is precisely the time to be bolder. Life moves in a blur, and days stack up faster, so they should mean something. If I knew I had only a year? What would I do? Something to make that year worthwhile. If a month? A day?
The shorter the time left, the more that boldness matters and the less caution should. If I only had an hour of my life left, you can damn sure bet I’d do something with it, as much as I could.
But life is built on compound interest. The more I try to write, the better I get. The more I lift, the stronger I get. The time to start is now.
The actions should be bold. While my days may pass fast, the more I can do with them, the more I will do. When I pass, what will be left are the lives I’ve touched, the children that I’ve raised, the ways I’ve made the world better, and the words that I have written. Since the restraining order dictates who I can touch, and the lessons to the children are mainly done, that leaves making the world better and writing.
Even a full human lifetime isn’t enough, because they are so very short. But I’ll make do. With the remaining decades (hopefully) of my life, how big a dent can I kick in the Universe? I guess I’ll see. And I’ll smile some, every day. And enjoy that cigar, and book, and chair when I’m not being bold. “L’audace, l’audace, toujours l’audace.”
"Retail stores are being shut down at a staggering rate all over the country. If we stay on the pace that we are on, the total number of stores closed in 2024 will be nearly 40 percent higher than the total number of stores closed in 2023. That is what you call a crisis! Meanwhile, banks are shuttering hundreds of branches from coast to coast, and a “restaurant apocalypse” is sweeping across the nation. Everywhere around us, “space available” signs are going up on buildings that were once considered to be prime commercial real estate. If someone tries to convince you that the U.S. economy is in good shape, just show them this article and ask them why so many once prosperous businesses are closing. Needless to say, they will not be able to win the argument after that.
According to the Daily Mail, nearly 2,600 store closings were announced during the first four months of 2024…"US retailers have announced the closure of almost 2,600 stores in 2024 – just four months into the year. Big names including Macy’s, Walmart, Walgreens, Foot Locker and 7-Eleven have all said they are closing shops. But discount stores like Family Dollar and bankrupt 99 Cents Only have been worst hit, as have drugstores like CVS and Rite Aid."
If the U.S. economy is heading in the right direction, why are many of the largest retail chains in the U.S. shutting down stores? That wouldn’t make any sense at all. If this pace remains constant throughout the rest of this year, we would hit a grand total of approximately 7,800 store closing announcements by the end of 2024…"If the closures were to continue at the same rate for the rest of the year they would total 7,800 in 2024 – almost 40 percent more than the total in 2023."
When the number of retail stores shutting down goes up by 40 percent in a single year, that is a sign that your economy is really “booming”, eh? Sadly, we are losing more stores with each passing day. On Thursday, we learned that a major convenience store chain in Wisconsin has decided to close down all of their locations…"Wisconsin convenience store and gas station chain The Store is being forced to close all of its 25 locations. The Store, established in 1976, will shutter its businesses at the end of July. It also has locations in Michigan."
In some cases, stores are being closed down due to rapidly slowing economic conditions. But in other cases, stores are being permanently shuttered due to the unprecedented wave of retail theft that never seems to end. Earlier this week, I was intrigued by an article that was cleverly titled “Lego thefts across Southern California leave police trying to piece together clues”…"Believe it or not, the Lego sets and figurines collecting dust in your childhood bedroom could fetch a pretty penny. So pretty, in fact, that two suspects have allegedly stolen more than $100,000 in Lego merchandise from six Bricks & Minifigs stores across Southern California."
The Lego reseller, which stocks mini figures, accessories and bricks, has more than 100 outlets across the U.S. The Riverside store was the first one burglarized, with the suspects hitting it April 3, followed by Ontario on April 12, Whittier on May 3, Irvine on May 9 and the Costa Mesa and Fullerton locations on June 1, Whittier store owner Katie Leuschner said. “Shrink” is costing U.S. retailers more than 100 billion dollars a year at this point. In this sort of an environment, it is difficult for any retailers to be profitable, and that is especially true in our major cities.
Meanwhile, our banks are shutting down branches at a feverish rate. So far this year, more than 400 locations have been permanently closed…"US banks closed 79 branches in just six weeks – as the industry increasingly offers services online. The figures suggest the axing of costly bricks-and-mortar locations will continue, with total closures so far for 2024 above 400.
California is worst affected by the recent closures with 20 registered shutterings between April 20 and June 1." When banks get into trouble, they get really tight with their money, they fire workers, and they close branches. So expect to see a lot more branches get shuttered during the months ahead.
We are also in the midst of a “restaurant apocalypse”, and that is very bad news if you like to eat out a lot. For example, Red Lobster recently closed 93 locations earlier this year, and now we have learned that 135 more are on the brink of being canned if they continue to lose money…"Red Lobster is ready to close another batch of more than 100 restaurants if it is unable to renegotiate cheaper rent with its landlords.
The seafood chain abruptly closed 93 of its 700-odd restaurants on May 13 – and the next week filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the hope it can restructure its debts. New court documents reveal that there are another 135 restaurants that bosses say will keep losing money if leases stay as they are, Restaurant Business reported. The option is for the company to pay less rent or shut them." If I owned a restaurant chain, a bank, or a major retailer, I would be trimming locations too.
Economic conditions are horrible, theft is absolutely rampant, and the violence in our streets is rapidly approaching levels only seen in the most dangerous areas of the planet. Earlier this week, Collin Rugg posted an account of a particularly alarming incident that just happened in Chicago…"A woman identified as ‘Nina’ says she was walking down the street when she got surrounded by teens who assaulted her. Her crime? Walking down the wrong street.
“We own the street, we own the street. You can’t just walk around prancing in your little dress,” the gang of about 10 said. They then held her husband back as they beat her, ripped out her hair, pepper sprayed her face and kicked her in the stomach. “First someone approached him and hit his head, punched him in the head, and he looked back and he looked at me and told me ‘run’. Another lady came to me and dragged me with my hair on the ground.” I started screaming she started pepper-spraying me right in the face, in the eyes.” Another person starts stomping all over me, and my husband ran towards me to save me and over 10 people held him.” She lost her baby hours later.
Now it is here. And it is getting worse every single day. Unfortunately, most Americans still don’t understand the fundamental transformation that is happening to our society and they still believe that our leaders will be able to return things to “normal” eventually."
"10 U.S. States on The Brink Of Societal Collapse"
"Today, we're diving into a critical issue: the top 10 most dangerous states in the U.S. for 2024! Do you live in one of these perilous places? With crime rates skyrocketing, it's essential to know if your home state is a haven or a hazard. We've analyzed the latest FBI data to uncover the cold, hard facts about where the highest crime rates are lurking. From Oklahoma to Alaska, these states are grappling with alarming levels of violent and property crimes. Are you safe? Is your family at risk? The numbers are shocking, and the consequences are dire."
"We are hearing everything is having a problem. From big box retailers to the dollar stores. They are in trouble. Now a restaurant chain just filed bankruptcy. Today, we're diving deep into the alarming trend of stores closing everywhere amid the ongoing economic meltdown. From Best Buy to Rubios, major retailers and restaurants are shutting their doors, signaling a troubling shift."
US GDP in 1971 was barely over $1 trillion. Total debt was only
about $1.5 trillion. Today, GDP is near $28 trillion, but much
of the spending is ‘on credit' with total debt approaching $100 trillion.
by Bill Bonner
“Never allow the demands of tomorrow to
interfere with the pleasure and excitement of today.”
- "The Music Man"
Dublin, Ireland - "Suppose an entrepreneur (or counterfeiter!) sets up a bank in a small town in the Midwest. He lends everyone a lot of money on irresistible terms. Suddenly, the town comes alive... cars roll off the lots... barroom tips go up... furniture showrooms are cleaned out. And, of course, prices rise. Everyone feels richer. The local GDP rises. The town gets written up in Barron’s. The Wall Street Journal says it is a sign of a ‘middle-American revival.’ The mayor considers running for governor.
Trouble begins as fun. But then, the wave of prosperity soon washes over the town... and drains away. The cash is gone. Loans have to be repaid. Sales go down. Cars and furniture are repossessed. What happened to the boom? What became of that new wealth? It was fictitious. Unreal. Transitory. Ephemeral... a chimera... a mirage... a vain and foolish fantasy.
How could that be? The BMWs and sectionals were real, tangible things. The boom was genuine. But the spark was credit, not savings. Savings can be spent and enjoyed. End of story. But credit comes with ‘the demands of tomorrow’ attached. Successfully invested, it might have created new wealth. But merely consumed... there was no new income to pay off the debt. People just spent money they didn’t have…and got poorer.
In round numbers, US GDP in 1971 was barely over $1 trillion. Total debt back then was only about $1.5 trillion. Today, GDP is around $28 trillion, but much of the spending is ‘on credit’... with total debt approaching $100 trillion. Assuming the ratio of debt/GDP had stayed the same, we’d only have about $40 trillion of debt, not $100 trillion. That extra $60 trillion represents ‘the demands of tomorrow’ that aren’t likely to be met. It was credit flushed into the system... but with no corresponding increase in real wealth.
Much of the ‘wealth’ of the US economy is likewise only half of an incomplete transaction. It is the fun part of the credit cycle. Debt increases on one side of the ledger. “Wealth” on the other. And then, when the credit cycle completes its swing, both disappear. Debts are paid, written off, or inflated away. Assets are marked down.
Today, America’s publicly-traded businesses are said to be worth $50 trillion. How much of that is real? Take Nvidia. Business Reporter: "Nvidia’s stock rallied to record highs on Wednesday, with the artificial intelligence chipmaker’s valuation breaching the $3 trillion mark and overtaking Apple to become the world’s second most valuable company."
Nvidia is a real company. With real products. And real profits. But does it really represent $3 trillion of wealth? Unlikely. As we saw last week, at the present dividend payout rate, it will take more than 2,000 years for investors to get their money back. Of course, that doesn’t mean that investors won’t pay even more for the stock after it splits today. But are they really calculating the present value of Nvidia’s future earnings? Or just gambling on a higher price with cheap credit-money?
Last week, we reported that many US companies were ‘zombies,’ unable to pay even the interest on their debt. On the stock market they may be worth billions of dollars. But what is the real value of a company that can only stay in business by borrowing more and more money? Shouldn’t the ledger list them as liabilities rather than assets? And how about ‘meme’ stocks?
GameStop sells computer games from retail, brick-and-mortar stores. And like Blockbuster video rentals, its business largely disappeared when the games became available online. But GameStop didn’t go gently into that good night. In January 2021, as the pros sold it short, the gamers bought. This forced the shorts to cover and spiked the price from $1 to $100. A simple question: What kind of wealth was that... the $99 increase caused by meme stock traders?
Then, just a couple weeks ago, the image of a man leaning forward in his chair, posted by Roaring Kitty (aka Keith Gill) appeared on X. This was thought to be a signal to the cognoscenti, causing another big up-tick in trading. The press reported that Gill himself was buying. Matt Levine (at Bloomberg) was on the story: "He paid about $174.5 million for the position. This morning, GameStop’s stock got as high as $40.50, and those calls got as high as $21.10. At those prices, Gill had a paper gain of about $281 million." A ‘paper gain?’ What kind of wealth is that? We don’t know. But if we had it, we’d convert it to a non-paper gain, pronto. Stay tuned."
