Wednesday, May 8, 2024

"Virtual Home Invasions: We’re Not Safe from Government Peeping Toms"

"Virtual Home Invasions: 
We’re Not Safe from Government Peeping Toms"
by John & Nisha Whitehead

“The privacy and dignity of our citizens is being whittled away by sometimes imperceptible steps. Taken individually, each step may be of little consequence. But when viewed as a whole, there begins to emerge a society quite unlike any we have seen - a society in which government may intrude into the secret regions of man’s life at will.”
- Justice William O. Douglas

"The spirit of the Constitution, drafted by men who chafed against the heavy-handed tyranny of an imperial ruler, would suggest that one’s home is a fortress, safe from almost every kind of intrusion. Unfortunately, a collective assault by the government’s cabal of legislators, litigators, judges and militarized police has all but succeeded in reducing that fortress - and the Fourth Amendment alongside it - to a crumbling pile of rubble.

We are no longer safe in our homes, not from the menace of a government and its army of Peeping Toms who are waging war on the last stronghold of privacy left to us as a free people.
The weapons of this particular war on the privacy and sanctity of our homes are being wielded by the government and its army of bureaucratized, corporatized, militarized mercenaries.

Government agents—with or without a warrant, with or without probable cause that criminal activity is afoot, and with or without the consent of the homeowner - are now justified in mounting virtual home invasions using surveillance technology - with or without the blessing of the courts - to invade one’s home with wiretaps, thermal imaging, surveillance cameras, aerial drones, and other monitoring devices. Just recently, in fact, the Michigan Supreme Court gave the government the green light to use warrantless aerial drone surveillance to snoop on citizens at home and spy on their private property.

While the courts have given police significant leeway at times when it comes to physical intrusions into the privacy of one’s home (the toehold entry, the battering ram, the SWAT raid, the knock-and-talk conversation, etc.), the menace of such virtual intrusions on our Fourth Amendment rights has barely begun to be litigated, legislated and debated.

Consequently, we now find ourselves in the unenviable position of being monitored, managed, corralled and controlled by technologies that answer to government and corporate rulers. Indeed, almost anything goes when it comes to all the ways in which the government can now invade your home and lay siege to your property.

Consider that on any given day, the average American going about his daily business will be monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways, by both government and corporate eyes and ears. A byproduct of this surveillance age in which we live, whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking your behavior. This doesn’t even begin to touch on the corporate trackers that monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere.

Stingray devices mounted on police cars to warrantlessly track cell phones, Doppler radar devices that can detect human breathing and movement within in a home, license plate readers that can record up to 1800 license plates per minute, sidewalk and “public space” cameras coupled with facial recognition and behavior-sensing technology that lay the groundwork for police “pre-crime” programs, police body cameras that turn police officers into roving surveillance cameras, the internet of things: all of these technologies (and more) add up to a society in which there’s little room for indiscretions, imperfections, or acts of independence - especially not when the government can listen in on your phone calls, read your emails, monitor your driving habits, track your movements, scrutinize your purchases and peer through the walls of your home.

Without our realizing it, the American Police State passed the baton off to a fully-fledged Surveillance State that gives the illusion of freedom while functioning all the while like an electronic prison: controlled, watchful, inflexible, punitive, deadly and inescapable.

Nowhere to run and nowhere to hide: this is the mantra of the architects of the Surveillance State and their corporate collaborators. Government eyes see your every move: what you read, how much you spend, where you go, with whom you interact, when you wake up in the morning, what you’re watching on television and reading on the internet.

Every move you make is being monitored, mined for data, crunched, and tabulated in order to amass a profile of who you are, what makes you tick, and how best to control you when and if it becomes necessary to bring you in line.

Cue the dawning of the Age of the Internet of Things (IoT), in which internet-connected “things” monitor your home, your health and your habits in order to keep your pantry stocked, your utilities regulated and your life under control and relatively worry-free. The key word here, however, is control.

In the not-too-distant future, “just about every device you have—and even products like chairs, that you don’t normally expect to see technology in—will be connected and talking to each other.” By the end of 2018, “there were an estimated 22 billion internet of things connected devices in use around the world… Forecasts suggest that by 2030 around 50 billion of these IoT devices will be in use around the world, creating a massive web of interconnected devices spanning everything from smartphones to kitchen appliances.”

As the technologies powering these devices have become increasingly sophisticated, they have also become increasingly widespread, encompassing everything from toothbrushes and lightbulbs to cars, smart meters and medical equipment. It is estimated that 127 new IoT devices are connected to the web every second.

These Internet-connected techno gadgets include smart light bulbs that discourage burglars by making your house look occupied, smart thermostats that regulate the temperature of your home based on your activities, and smart doorbells that let you see who is at your front door without leaving the comfort of your couch.

Nest, Google’s suite of smart home products, has been at the forefront of the “connected” industry, with such technologically savvy conveniences as a smart lock that tells your thermostat who is home, what temperatures they like, and when your home is unoccupied; a home phone service system that interacts with your connected devices to “learn when you come and go” and alert you if your kids don’t come home; and a sleep system that will monitor when you fall asleep, when you wake up, and keep the house noises and temperature in a sleep-conducive state.

The aim of these internet-connected devices, as Nest proclaims, is to make “your house a more thoughtful and conscious home.” For example, your car can signal ahead that you’re on your way home, while Hue lights can flash on and off to get your attention if Nest Protect senses something’s wrong. Your coffeemaker, relying on data from fitness and sleep sensors, will brew a stronger pot of coffee for you if you’ve had a restless night.

Yet given the speed and trajectory at which these technologies are developing, it won’t be long before these devices become government informants, reporting independently on anything you might do that runs afoul of the Nanny State. Moreover, it’s not just our homes and personal devices that are being reordered and reimagined in this connected age: it’s our workplaces, our health systems, our government, our bodies and our innermost thoughts that are being plugged into a matrix over which we have no real control.

It is expected that by 2030, we will all experience The Internet of Senses (IoS), enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, and automation. The Internet of Senses relies on connected technology interacting with our senses of sight, sound, taste, smell, and touch by way of the brain as the user interface. As journalist Susan Fourtane explains:

"Many predict that by 2030, the lines between thinking and doing will blur. Fifty-nine percent of consumers believe that we will be able to see map routes on VR glasses by simply thinking of a destination… By 2030, technology is set to respond to our thoughts, and even share them with others… Using the brain as an interface could mean the end of keyboards, mice, game controllers, and ultimately user interfaces for any digital device. The user needs to only think about the commands, and they will just happen. Smartphones could even function without touch screens."

Once technology is able to access and act on your thoughts, not even your innermost thoughts will be safe from the Thought Police. Thus far, the public response to concerns about government surveillance has amounted to a collective shrug. Yet when the government sees all and knows all and has an abundance of laws to render even the most seemingly upstanding citizen a criminal and lawbreaker, then the old adage that you’ve got nothing to worry about if you’ve got nothing to hide no longer applies.

To our detriment, we are fast approaching a world without the Fourth Amendment, where the lines between private and public property are so blurred that private property is reduced to little more than something the government can use to control, manipulate and harass you to suit its own purposes, and you the homeowner and citizen have been reduced to little more than a tenant or serf in bondage to an inflexible landlord.

When people talk about privacy, they mistakenly assume it protects only that which is hidden behind a wall or under one’s clothing. The courts have fostered this misunderstanding with their constantly shifting delineation of what constitutes an “expectation of privacy.” And technology has furthered muddied the waters.

However, privacy is so much more than what you do or say behind locked doors. It is a way of living one’s life firm in the belief that you are the master of your life, and barring any immediate danger to another person (which is far different from the carefully crafted threats to national security the government uses to justify its actions), it’s no one’s business what you read, what you say, where you go, whom you spend your time with, and how you spend your money.

As Glenn Greenwald notes: “The way things are supposed to work is that we’re supposed to know virtually everything about what [government officials] do: that’s why they’re called public servants. They’re supposed to know virtually nothing about what we do: that’s why we’re called private individuals. This dynamic - the hallmark of a healthy and free society - has been radically reversed. Now, they know everything about what we do, and are constantly building systems to know more. Meanwhile, we know less and less about what they do, as they build walls of secrecy behind which they function. That’s the imbalance that needs to come to an end. No democracy can be healthy and functional if the most consequential acts of those who wield political power are completely unknown to those to whom they are supposed to be accountable.”

As I make clear in my book "Battlefield America: The War on the American People" and in its fictional counterpart "The Erik Blair Diaries," none of this will change, no matter which party controls Congress or the White House, because despite all of the work being done to help us buy into the fantasy that things will change if we just elect the right candidate, we’ll still be prisoners of the electronic concentration camp."

Canadian Prepper, "$#!%&: They're Not Going To Stop This, What The Public Doesn't Know"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/8/24
"$#!%&: They're Not Going To Stop This, 
What The Public Doesn't Know"
Comments here:

"RV Industry Apocalypse A Painful Economic Reality, It's Game Over For The RV Industry"

Jeremiah Babe, 5/8/24
"RV Industry Apocalypse A Painful Economic Reality,
 It's Game Over For The RV Industry"
Comments here:

"We’re All 'Flagellants' Now"

"We’re All 'Flagellants' Now"
by Jeffrey Tucker

"The old FedEx envelope was clever, a work of art even, optimistic and colorful, signifying speed and progress. What a beautiful contrast to the plainness of the U.S. Postal Service. For years, I can recall dropping off these treasures and paying maybe $10 to assure their delivery across the country, even the world. For me, it was a fabulous symbol of an improved life, living proof that progress was baked into the historical trajectory.

But a few days ago, the clerk at the FedEx office confirmed a different ethos. There was no doing business without a scan of my government-issued ID. I asked for confirmation: So if I did not have this, there is simply no way that I could send a package? Confirmed. Then came the envelope. It was the color of the brown bag I took to school when I was a kid. Serviceable, drab, dull. Also the new one is stamped with a big green marker: recyclable. There is no design, no art, certainly no beauty. It’s all gone.

Its main message is suffering. What happened to the old envelopes? They’ve been replaced, the clerk explained firmly, with no more detail. A recycle exhortation suggests shortage. We have to reuse everything because there just isn’t enough to go around. We must sacrifice. The color suggests privation. It’s an aesthetic of sadness and penance. Then of course the price tag came: $26 for delivery not tomorrow but in two days. So compared with some years ago, we pay 2½ times as much for service half as good as it was.

Don’t complain. It’s just the new way. It’s the new way of life. What happened to progress? It’s been replaced. The new path is flagellantism: in politics, culture, economics and everywhere.

The flagellants were a medieval movement of public penitents that roamed from town to town in garbs of woe, flogging themselves and begging as penance for pestilence and war. They were infused with a fiery, apocalyptic and millenarian passion that they could see terrible moral realities to which others were blinded. The theory was that plagues were being visited upon the Earth by God as punishment for sin. The answer was contrition, sorrow and acts of penance as a means of appeasement, in order to make the bad times go away.

It’s true that there were people who did so in private but that was not the main point. The central focus and purpose of the flagellant movement was to make one’s suffering public and conspicuous, an early version of the virtue signal. In the guise of personal sorrow, they were really about spreading guilt to others. They would show up at any public celebration with a message: Your happiness is causing our suffering. The more you party, the more we are forced to bear the burden of the need to be in pain for your sins. Your joy is prolonging the suffering of the world.

Flagellantry is most recognizable in the aesthetic. The first signs I recall seeing of this occurred immediately during the panic of March 2020 when it was proclaimed from on high that a terrible virus was visiting the U.S. Read on for the ugly details…

"Flagellantism: The New Political Ritual"
by Jeffrey Tucker

"No, you couldn’t see the virus, but it was highly dangerous, everywhere present, and should be avoided at all costs. You must wash constantly, douse yourself with sanitizer, cover your face, dress in drab color and be sad as much as possible. Fun things were banned: public gatherings, singing, house parties, weddings and all celebrations. This whole scene took on a political patina, as people were invited to think of the invisible virus as a symbol of a more tangible virus in the White House, an evil man who had invaded a holy space whose malice had leaked out in the culture and now threatened to poison everything.

The more you complied with mandatory misery, the more your work made a contribution to making the pestilence go away while we wait for the inoculation. That could take two forms: driving him from the White House or releasing the vaccine which everyone would accept.

Joseph Campbell was correct about the role of religious impulses in the human mind. They never go away. They just take on different forms according to the style of the times. Every single feature of traditional religion found a new expression in the COVID religion.

We had masking rituals that were rather complicated but learned and practiced quickly by multitudes: mask on while standing and mask off when sitting. We had sacramentals like social distancing and communion with vaccination. Our holy water became sanitizer and our prophets on Earth were government bureaucrats like Fauci.

Flagellantism did not disappear once the old president left and the new one came. Even after the pandemic ended, there were new signs that God was angry. There was the ever-present climate change which was a sign of Earth’s anger for being drilled and carved up for energy sources. And the bad country said to be responsible for the unwelcome invader of the White House - Russia - was now rampaging through the holy land of its neighbors.

In addition, the broader problem was capitalism itself, which gave us things like meat, gasoline, fur and other signs of evil. And what gave rise to capitalism? The answer should be obvious: imperialism, colonialism, racism and the existence of whiteness - each of which called for mass penance.

The pandemic unleashed it all. It was during this period that corporations decided that profitability alone required signs of suffering and hence the rise of ESG and DEI as new ways to assess economic value of corporate culture. And new practices were added to the list of the highly suspect: monogamy, heterosexuality and religious traditions such as Christianity and Orthodox Judaism that should now be regarded as deprecated, even as part of the underlying problem.

It was during this period when I found myself on an apartment hunt and observed a newly remodeled offering. I asked why the owner had not replaced the flooring. I was corrected: These are new floors. Impossible, I thought. They are gray and ghastly. That’s the new fashion, I was told. Looking it up, it was true. Gray flooring was being installed everywhere.

How does wood become gray? It dies. It starts to decay. It is swept away by rivers and floats around for years, alternatively soaked, baked by the sun and soaked again, until every bit of color is drained away. It becomes driftwood, a survivor of the elements and a symbol of the brutality of the cycle of life. Gray flooring is therefore the ideal symbol of the age of suffering, the proper material on which to move back and forth pondering the evils of the world.

In a world governed by flagellantism, ugly formlessness rises to replace aspirational art and imaginative creativity. This is why public art is so depressing and why even the clothing we can afford at the store all looks dreary and uniform. In this world, too, gender differences disappear as luxurious signs of decadence we can no longer afford.

Two other anecdotes. The overhead bins on the flight just now were largely empty, simply because most passengers chose the cheaper basic economy fare. This also requires they have no carry-on luggage and hence be forced to pay for checked luggage or travel with all their belongings in a backpack. We’ve gone from gigantic Louis Vuitton steamer trunks to stuffing things in pockets and hiding them from authorities.

Another case in point. I asked the man in the high-end shoe shop why none of the shoes had leather soles. Instead all shoes have these cushy rubber soles that seem weak and pathetic, and make no noise when one steps. “Everything has changed since COVID,” he said. “All shoes are house shoes now.”

I had no words and walked away, my entire thesis confirmed. Sure enough, all the data we have suggests the mighty triumph of flagellantism. Fertility is down dramatically. Life spans are shortening. People are sicker. Excess deaths are rising. We learn less, read less, write less, create less, love less.

Personal trauma is everywhere. The groceries are more expensive so we eat whatever we can, when we can, while hoping for breezes and whatever sunlight there is to provide just the essential energy we need to slog through another day.

Degrowth is the economic model of flagellantism, reducing consumption, embracing privation, acquiescing to austerity. We no longer declare recessions to be on their way because recession is the new way we live, the realization of the plan. The word “recession” implies a future of recovery, and that is not in the cards.

“Decolonization” is another watchword. It means feeling so guilty about the space you inhabit that your only moral action is to stay put and reflect on the sufferings of those you have displaced. You can of course say a prayer of supplication to them, so long as you never appropriate any aspect of their culture, since doing so would seem to affirm your rights as a human being.

You want joy, beauty, color, drama, adventure and love? It’s not gone entirely. Park yourself on a yoga mat on your gray floor and open your computer. Stream something on one of many streaming services you have been provided. Or become a gamer. There you will find what you seek. The experiences you seek you can only observe as an outsider looking in. It is not participatory. Social distancing never went away; it is how we live in a new age of unending penance.

So, you see, it’s not just about eating bugs. It’s about a whole theory and practice of life and salvation itself, a new religion to replace all the old ones. Cough up your government-issued ID, send your package if you must, think twice before complaining about anything on social media and figure out a way to channel your depression and despair into quiet humble gratitude and acquiescence. Don’t forget to recycle. The flagellants have taken over the world."
o
"In a scene from the 1975 film "Monty Python and the Holy Grail," a group of monks are depicted singing plainchant while on a procession through the streets of a medieval village. After chanting the first few lines of text, the monks abruptly hit themselves in the face and repeatedly do so during their procession. Although this scene was undoubtedly filmed for comedic purposes, and the movie, in general, propagates a number of historically questionable stereotypes of the Middle Ages, the act of monks singing while engaging in self-harm is historically sound. In fact, this scene reflects the practices of a group of traveling medieval flagellants who would whip themselves while singing songs of penance for the purpose of placating God."

Gregory Mannarino, "Why Inflation Will Skyrocket From Here"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/8/24
"Why Inflation Will Skyrocket From Here"
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Musical Interlude: Walter Murphy, "A Fifth of Beethoven"

Walter Murphy, "A Fifth of Beethoven"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"This fantastic skyscape lies near the edge of NGC 2174 a star forming region about 6,400 light-years away in the nebula-rich constellation of Orion. It follows mountainous clouds of gas and dust carved by winds and radiation from the region's newborn stars, now found scattered in open star clusters embedded around the center of NGC 2174, off the top of the frame.
Though star formation continues within these dusty cosmic clouds they will likely be dispersed by the energetic newborn stars within a few million years. Recorded at infrared wavelengths by the Hubble Space Telescope in 2014, the interstellar scene spans about 6 light-years. Scheduled for launch in 2021, the James Webb Space Telescope is optimized for exploring the Universe at infrared wavelengths."

Chet Raymo, “When The Morning Stars Sing Together”

“When The Morning Stars Sing Together”
by Chet Raymo

“A Chinese proverb: A bird does not sing because it has an answer. It sings because it has a song. Which might be an acceptable epigraph for this blog. I can’t imagine anyone coming here looking for answers. Certainly, providing answers is the last thing on my mind. I would like to think you come for song.

We are, I think, by and large, a community who distrusts answers, at least answers that are vehemently held. We are made uncomfortable by stridency. By dogma. By the desire to proselytize. We wear our truths lightly, gaily, as a song bird wears its feathers. We are grateful to those who push back the clouds of ignorance and hold the reins of passion. With Blake, we sing their praises, a song we have spent a lifetime learning. We sing to celebrate. We sing because we have a song.”

"Fate. Luck. Chance."

“That is life, isn’t it? Fate. Luck. Chance. A long series of what-if’s that lead from one moment to the next, time never pausing for you to catch your breath, to make sense of the cards that have been handed to you. And all you can do is play your cards and hope for the best, because in the end, it all comes back to those three basics. Fate. Luck. Chance.”
- Kelseyleigh Reber

“Unless, of course, there’s no such thing as chance… in which case, we should either - optimistically - get up and cheer, because if everything is planned in advance, then we all have a meaning and are spared the terror of knowing ourselves to be random, without a why; or else, of course, we might - as pessimists - give up right here and now, understanding the futility of thought-decision-action, since nothing we think makes any difference anyway, things will be as they will. Where, then, is optimism? In fate or in chaos?”
- Salman Rushdie

"15 Facts That Prove The US Housing Market Is Falling Apart"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 5/8/24
"15 Facts That Prove The 
US Housing Market Is Falling Apart"

"The impressive run that created the biggest housing bubble in all America's history is officially over, and now something really disturbing is happening in the U.S real estate market. After an impressive boom during the pandemic, which led average home prices to jump by more than 40% over a span of less than four years, the U.S. property market seems to be stuck in a limbo. With inflated home prices and soaring mortgage rates, many aspiring homeowners are completely giving up on their dream of buying a home. Sales are falling precipitously in 2024, and as a result, sellers are facing some of the most painful profit losses they've seen in years. In some regions, where prices are being slashed to meet the demand, some owners are already expericing significant home equity losses, while others are becoming underwater on their mortgages, – meaning that the value of their debt is now bigger than the value of their homes.

If this all seems too familiar, it's because it is. The last time the U.S. real estate market has witnessed such extreme distortions, a disaster followed suit. Though no one knows exactly when a sweeping nationwide correction will occur, we can certainly pay attention to the indicators that point to trouble ahead. For that reason, today we compiled the most important facts and stats you need to know about the housing crisis that is right before us. So without further ado, let's check out this list!"
Comments here:

"Don't Imagine..."

"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. Do remember that dishonesty and cowardice always have to be paid for. Don't imagine that for years on end you can make yourself the boot-licking propagandist of any régime, and then suddenly return to mental decency."
- George Orwell

"Breathe Deep…The Gathering Gloom"

"Breathe Deep…The Gathering Gloom"
by Karl Denninger

"Plenty of people - including obviously the stock market and its commentators - believe everything will be ok. Deficits don’t matter. The government cannot go broke. There will never be a loss of confidence.

I travel quite a bit. Like most people I have my habits - places I like, things I go to do and if I enjoy them I’ll go back and do them again. This means I see patterns and, unlike many, I tend to notice them immediately. Perhaps its a blessing - or perhaps a curse.

I just got back after one such trip; one I’ve made before and Sarah and her boyfriend both came as well (her boyfriend has not been on this trip before, but she certainly has.) They traveled separately but we met up and had a good time.

If you’re in the market you ought to be making up a big fat list of things to be short - or at least be out of the things you’ve had and are long of, particularly when you can get a 5%+ risk free return in the short end (the 13 week bill, for example) of the Treasury market. I was stunned at the deterioration I saw in consumer behavior from just a month or so ago on my prior trip, and gob-smacked at the change over three months or so back when Sarah and I were out at Wolf Creek, also a place I like to go on a repetitive basis (for skiing, of course.)

There was evidence of it then on our travels which were over a large part of the same path we took back in September for our trip out to the Grand Canyon. That which was jammed full was not, and yet there wasn’t a serious price delta between those two trips; that is, while there had been lots of inflation over the previous couple of years (and it was obvious) there wasn’t anything that was a sort-of “trigger moment” associated with the change, and being winter .vs. late summer, ok, maybe it was seasonal and frankly, the delta was small.

This time it wasn’t small and in addition there were serious price hikes that were attempted - and appear to have had an instant impact. I’m talking about sit-down fast-casual places I like when traveling and lots of others do too in that they’re always slammed to the point that if you want to eat there during the dinner hours I hope you like their “get a sort of reservation on their app” thing or sit at the bar if its just one of you - because if not you might be waiting an hour.

Well, that was gone. And not a little gone either. The place had plenty of tables with no wait and the parking lot had lots of spaces too. But it wasn’t one place - on the way home I stopped at another I’ve been in a dozen times over the last five or so years, again, at dinner time, and a third of the tables were empty. But what else was shocking? A roughly 40% total price increase over a couple of years ago and of that 10+% that just got tacked on with all the menus having just been reprinted in the last couple of weeks. It appears that last grab for cash finally hit people’s pain points and they stopped showing up.


I also saw “fast food” style places co-located with fueling stations on the highway shuttered and boarded up - and that’s entirely new, and of other chains I pay some attention to during the same times in the afternoon and evening their parking lots are half-full or less.

Yes, this is “shoulder season” - or is it? Not really. Its graduation season and a lot of people are in fact traveling for precisely that reason; in another few weeks it will be the start of “traditional summer” with Memorial Day.

Folks, there are no rate cuts coming because there can’t be into this government spending level without an explosion in inflation. Without taking on the place in the federal spending game where all the money is going (that’s health care) there is no fix. Attempting to work around it with more offshoring, more robots, more data centers (and “ai” in them) and similar won’t work either because you can’t print money - you can only print credit and to obtain money someone has to do something of value for someone else in excess of its costs.

When costs ramp that excess closes and eventually goes negative - and at the point it does that activity becomes uneconomic. If you continue to do it through various machinations such as the government playing handout games you run the risk of an exponential runaway and collapse.

But what you should keep in mind is that never in reasonably-modern history do markets let you get to that endpoint. They didn’t in 2000 or in 2008 either. All the hollering about “subprime being contained” proved to be nonsense; the underlying bubble that “supported” the charade was seen through before the endpoint and the market imposed its own view of things whether policy makers liked it or not. Mature fast casual dining and chip companies selling for 70x earnings are fantasy-land nonsense and yet both are the case right here, right now.

I get it that nobody likes the implications of prices having to collapse by a third to come roughly into line with incomes, but its fact. Further its at least double that in the capital markets because common stock always has an element of leverage in it (otherwise why would it sell at a “multiple” of earnings at all - and yet it always does, does it not?)

The belief that The Fed “must” or “will” step in and prevent such a reversion to the mean is absurdly common - after all, they have stepped in through the last two decades (or even more) but in doing so each time they’ve made the imbalance worse and now the exponential nature of such deficit spending and debt load are here rather than a future problem. For those who believe that it will “never fail” or worse, that you’ll get plenty of warning before something serious breaks I have three words for you: SOLD TO YOU."
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.
o
Moody Blues, "Late Lament"

"Breathe deep the gathering gloom,
Watch lights fade from every room.
Bedsitter people look back and lament,
Another day's useless energy is spent.
Impassioned lovers wrestle as one,
Lonely man cries for love and has none,
New mother picks up and suckles her son,
Senior citizens wish they were young.

Cold-hearted orb that rules the night,
Removes the colors from our sight,
Red is grey and yellow-white,
But we decide which is right,
And which is an illusion."

The Daily "Near You?"

Metamora, Michigan, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Dan, I Allegedly, "This Will Kill Real Estate"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/8/24
"This Will Kill Real Estate"
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have just released a guideline for insurance companies. They must replace to the current market value anything that’s damaged on a home. This will be impossible and it will destroy real estate."
Comments here:

"A Race of Morons"

 
"A Race of Morons"
Oblivious to the rising tide of debt, deficits and defaults,
mankind stumbles toward disaster..
by Bill Bonner

"A man who takes what is’n his’n.
Gives it back or goes to pris’n."
~ Daniel Drew

"We have an old friend. One of the smartest men we’ve ever met. But he’s very down on his luck. His businesses failed. His marriages failed. His investments failed. And now, his health is failing too. “How did it come to this,” he wonders. “How could I be such a moron?” Today, we wonder for the whole nation.

This in from Business Insider: "US households are on the brink with excess savings likely to be depleted by month-end, San Francisco Fed says Savings built up by American households during the pandemic are all but gone, the San Francisco Fed says. US household savings have fallen from a record $2.1 trillion in 2021 to around $190 billion as of June, per their data. It may indicate a wider squeeze for Americans – who must contend with the highest interest rates in 22 years."

Dot… to Dot… to Dot… And then, this little item came in from Fortune: "Nearly two-thirds of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, study finds. Research from LendingClub finds that 61% of adults were living paycheck to paycheck as of July 2023, a two-point increase from the previous year. That comes even as inflation rates have dropped from 9.1% last July to 3.2% this year. The breakdown of people living paycheck to paycheck was fairly evenly spread. Low-income consumers - those earning less than $50,000 annually - saw the biggest increases, rising from 74% in July 2022 to 78% in July 2023.

What happened? How did it come to this? Is this just the nature of things…that the middle classes are always “on the brink” of ruin? Or is it a feature of public policies? Here’s another dot to connect: "The Fed's balance sheet reductions have hit $1 trillion… Where once the Fed's portfolio held around $8.4 trillion in assets, the institution's System Open Market Account now shows that this has fallen to just under $7.4 trillion. These balance sheet reduction efforts are more commonly known as quantitative tightening, and are a strategy deployed by the central bank to drain excess liquidity from markets."

Giveth…and Taketh: The Fed giveth and the people are happy. The Fed taketh away and the people hurteth. But what is it that it gives and takes? The Fed does not print ‘money.’ And when it ‘reduces its balance sheet,’ it does not take back the money it didn’t give out in the first place. Money is a stand-in, like a claim ticket from a parking garage. It represents real wealth. The Fed has no pink Cadillac…no black Mariah…no silver Ford F-150. It comes onto the lot with nothing. And then, it prints up a claim ticket, giving the holder the right to take any car on the lot.

How could anyone ever think that was going to work out? The Fed offers credit, not money. Money is a claim on real wealth, already in existence. Credit is all “on the come.” It claims wealth that may or may not come into being…and draws on it in the present. The poor borrower drives off in a newish Mercedes. But it is not his car. And sooner or later, he’ll have to return it.

This is not just a theoretical matter. A man who spends all his savings is broke. Busted. He has nothing. Too bad. So sad. But the man who borrows…spends…and can’t pay back is not only a disappointment to himself, but like a soldier who loses his nerve on the battlefield, he’s a danger to the whole army.

Debtors have creditors. The creditors have creditors of their own…and bills to be paid…and holidays planned months in advance…and, if they are banks, federal regulators who will shut them down if their accounts are out of order. Apparently, US households are down to their last dime. And here comes the Repo Man. The Washington Post: "More Americans are falling behind on their car loan and credit card payments than at any time in more than a decade, a troubling signal of consumer stress as higher prices and rising borrowing costs are squeezing household budgets.

Self-Inflicted Wounds: How could that be? As we've seen, the typical working man (and woman) is actually making less per hour than he did in 1966. Basic commodities are cheaper (in terms of hours of work needed to buy them). But finished products – those that he actually buys…those that should benefit from more technology – are much more expensive. And GDP growth rates have come down…decade after decade…from the ‘60s. We used to expect growth rates of 3% to 5%. In 1966, US GDP rose more than 6%. In 1984, it went up by more than 7%. Now, we’re lucky if we get 2%. For the last 10 years, GDP growth has averaged only about 1.5%.

The numbers are always a little slimy and slippery. But for the purpose of today’s cogitation, let us imagine that we are right: 90% of the population has gotten poorer, not richer, over the last half a century. They owe $12 trillion on their houses. Another trillion on their credit cards. And now, it’s time to return the Mercedes. And let us wonder: what kind of morons would do such a thing?"

"Do You Believe..."

“Do you believe,’ said Candide, ‘that men have always massacred each other as they do today, that they have always been liars, cheats, traitors, ingrates, brigands, idiots, thieves, scoundrels, gluttons, drunkards, misers, envious, ambitious, bloody-minded, calumniators, debauchees, fanatics, hypocrites, and fools?”
“Do you believe,” said Martin, “that hawks have always eaten pigeons when they have found them?” 
- Voltaire

"Mankind's Favorite Pastime..."

Full screen recommended.
Steve Cutts, "A Brief Disagreement"
"A visual journey into mankind's
favorite pastime throughout the ages."
o
"War"
"War is an intense armed conflict between statesgovernmentssocieties, or paramilitary groups such as mercenariesinsurgents, and militias. It is generally characterized by extreme violence, destruction, and mortality, using regular or irregular military forces. Warfare refers to the common activities and characteristics of types of war, or of wars in general. Total war is warfare that is not restricted to purely legitimate military targets, and can result in massive civilian or other non-combatant suffering and casualties. While some war studies scholars consider war a universal and ancestral aspect of human nature, others argue it is a result of specific socio-cultural, economic, or ecological circumstances.

The earliest evidence of prehistoric warfare is a Mesolithic cemetery in Jebel Sahaba, which has been determined to be about 13,400 years old. About forty-five percent of the skeletons there displayed signs of violent death, specifically traumatic bone lesions.

Since the rise of the state some 5,000 years ago, military activity has occurred over much of the globe. Estimates for total deaths due to war vary wildly. For the period 3000 BCE until 1991, estimates range from 145 million to 2 billion. In one estimate, primitive warfare prior to 3000 BCE has been thought to have claimed 400 million victims based on the assumption that it accounted for the 15.1% of all deaths. For comparison, an estimated 1,680,000,000 people died from infectious diseases in the 20th century."

"How It Really Is"

"Revenge of the NEET"

"Revenge of the NEET"
by John Wilder

"NEET is Internet slang for “Not in Employment, Education, or Training” – in other words, “stays at home and smokes weed and plays video games.” Mike Rowe, the Dirty Jobs guy, spent time noting last year that even with unemployment below 4%, 7 million men between the ages of 25 and 54 aren’t in the work force at all. Now, I would hate to bring up the points that if our nation:

• sends all the factory jobs overseas,
• imports millions of foreigners with H1B visas (95,000 a year, minimum, since 2006, and more going back before that), or
• just like Google®, cut hundreds of highly-skilled technical jobs in the United States and offshore them to Mexico and India,

then maybe, just maybe, the job market actually sucks because the wages are depressed to the point where living conditions at those wage levels are literally third world.

Why would people put up with that? The market. An example I read recently was of a person from India claiming that the only way they could find a place to live (this was in Canada) was in a bed in a kitchen in a two-bedroom apartment where six other Indian families were living. Admittedly, this is probably an upgrade from living in a slum in Mumbai, but these six families each pay a sixth of the rent. If a typical Canadian family wanted to rent that apartment and each Indian family was making $300 payments, the Canadians would have to cough up $1800. That’s why people are tenting it – tents are better (marginally) to the American psyche than living with six other families in a condition where “squalor” would be an upgrade.

Another example? When I was a kid, delivery work was for kids. Sixteen-year-olds were the ones frying Big Macs® and driving pizza from the Pizza Den to people’s houses. Now? Doordash® is now an adult job and everyone I see running the windows of the fast-food places has been voting for a big chunk of this century.

The United States is slipping quickly (and then, I fear, all at once) into a third world economy. To be clear, I’m not blaming those attempting to get to a better place, but it would be magical thinking to believe that once they got here and were a majority that they’d not immediately turn the United States into just another version of their homeland. You know, the one they fled.

But some of them aren’t working at all. And of those men that aren’t working, a huge number of them are white guys. It turns out that all, and I mean all, of the job growth since Corona™ became something other than a beer, went to dudes that weren’t white. In fact, the number of white people in the workforce dropped while Joe Biden “created” all of these jobs.

They were replaced. On any job where there is a remotely credible alternative with some sort of “diversity” score based on: a sexual fetish, being “female”, missing one of their six spleens, race, ethnicity, or religion. Of course, white, Christian and male is the opposite of diverse even though that category is only 6% or less of all of the humans we know of in the Solar System, excluding Phobos.

With things like Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) actively putting up barriers to hiring (or keeping) white guys, I’m not surprised that many have just given up. They are pretending right now that that DEI is going away, but in reality, they’re keeping it but just naming it other things. “People and the Planet,” anyone? (Yes, it’s real.) Their goals really haven’t changed.

The big problem is that Identity is now more important than Competency. Think: Chernobyl 2.0, brought to you by DEI. Why no DEI in the NFL®? People actually care about meritocracy in football players, I guess. Also, Automation is real. Factories of almost any type, when compared by their counterparts of 1960, are much more highly automated. A guy named Fred walking around to check temperatures on thermometers to make sure the boiler doesn’t suddenly wipe Peoria off the map has been replaced with sensors that feed pressure, temperature, and flowrates back to computers that automate the process. Fred’s out of a job, and, if those boiler automation systems weren’t programmed in India (looking at you, Boeing®) then Peoria is still safe. Except for Fred, who doesn’t have that job anymore. A.I. is coming for lots and lots of other jobs. Starting now. According to Indeed®:

• Software development jobs are down 51.3%,
• Information Design down 44.3%
• IT Operations and Helpdesk down 33.5%
• Industrial Engineering down 30.3%

Are all of these jobs replaceable by A.I.? Of course not. But 35.3% of HR jobs (same study) apparently are.

I’m not a NEET, but I’m sure it’s easier being a NEET without a family. No particular requirement to have shelter other than couch surfing, and some NEETs work for a couple of months during the year and then goof off, smoke weed, and play video games during the rest of the time.

Families have always been the nucleus that keeps men showered and shaved, but without them, men give up. It’s not like they can afford a family, either. Housing prices and interest rates are now high enough in most metro locations that most young families are effectively locked out of homeownership. The price to income ratio has doubled since 1985 nationally – homes are now twice as expensive as 1985 compared to median family incomes. Add in 7%+ interest rates, and you’ll see why the middle class has caused Red Lobster to go bankrupt.

In reality, there’s not a labor shortage – there’s only a labor shortage at the wages companies are willing to pay, and a ludicrous inflation of the value of women so that what they bring to the table (for kids) doesn’t equal what they have to put. NEETs don’t really care about either. They’ve got their weed, couches, and video games."

Bill Bonner, "How the Fed Came to Love Inflation"

"How the Fed Came to Love Inflation"
The US economy doesn’t need cheaper credit. Just the opposite; 
it could use higher interest rates to lower inflation. 
As it is, consumer prices are still going up at about two times the Fed’s target.
by Bill Bonner

"The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under 
the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
- Thomas Jefferson

Dublin, Ireland - "We left off yesterday with the provocative idea that the Fed doesn’t really want to stifle inflation. It wants more inflation... enough to lower the real value of US debt. Today, we examine the swindle behind it.

At 5% inflation, other things remaining the same, the US would cut the real value of its government debt by $1.7 trillion in a single year. Trouble is, other things don’t remain equal. At current levels of deficits, the US adds $1.7 trillion in new debt per year. Tough situation. The feds need either more inflation... or less spending. Our longstanding prediction: they will choose inflation.

On the surface, the Fed is four-square, dead-set against inflation. It will swear upon a Trump Bible that it intends to get the CPI down to 2%, and that it will look neither to the right nor to the left until the job is done.

More to the Story: But there’s always more to the story. Who wins? Who loses? Who decides? There’s the superficial, political analysis... and there are the deeper currents of history, the Megapolitical analysis. In public, the Fed fights inflation; in private, it encourages it.

The media report that two things are pulling the Fed in different directions. Some recent inflation news, for example, is ‘negative.’ That is, it tells us that the economy is weakening and could use a dose of EZ money. The job market is weakening. New jobs posted in April were fewer than expected. Total employment rose... but at the lowest rate in three years. Unemployment went up. Job openings went down.

A better measure of the job market is the actual number of hours worked; the last reading of that measure was negative, indicating a weaker economy. And manufacturing (according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index) signaled recession. But what ho! Among the surface chop there was some ‘positive’ (inflationary) news, too.

The Case-Shiller measure of house prices went up to another all-time high in February. Labor costs (including wages and benefits) rose more than expected. Prices at the wholesale level rose to their highest level in 2 years. (A sign of higher inflation to come?) And the decline in the US money supply seems to be bottoming out.

False Conclusion - All of these things suggest that the US economy doesn’t need cheaper credit. Just the opposite; it could use higher interest rates to lower inflation. As it is, consumer prices are still going up at about two times the Fed’s target. Economists argue about which of these data points is most important... and whether the balance of opinion leans towards rate cuts... or a rate hike.

The typical observer might draw a completely false conclusion: that the Fed has the power to tip the scales in whatever direction it wants. He might think that the Fed can always control interest rates... and with wisdom that surpasseth understanding can guide the economy along the path to prosperity and growth forever, neatly inflating with cheap money when needed and cutting off the stimulus when growth and inflation threaten to get out of hand. But that’s not the way it works. Beneath this newsy blather is a much different story - one with a beginning and an end... and a moral.

The genesis came in 1971, with the introduction of a new dollar that the deciders could diddle. Over time, the Fed’s easy money - especially during the 2009-2021 ‘zero interest rate’ phase - led people to borrow far more than they otherwise would. Today, total US debt - household, business and government - approaches $100 trillion, nearly 4 times US GDP.

You can see the problem. The higher the debt, the more of your current earnings you must use to pay the interest. At a uniform 5% interest, for example, America would need to use almost 20% of its GDP just to pay interest... while swindling the next generation by leaving the principal amount unpaid. The lead borrower was, of course, the US government itself.

On the flip side of borrowing is repaying. Mathematically, the US could pay down its debt. It would require abandoning its global empire, however. And trimming domestic social welfare programs too. Politically, it is impossible to make those changes; like an alcoholic, the country will have to ‘hit bottom’ first.

That leaves inflation as the only real option. The feds know that. They need to get the inflation rate up, not down, so that the real value of the government’s debt goes down to a more manageable level. That’s why, even with inflation at twice the Fed’s target, Powell is still insisting that the next move will be to lower rates, not raise them. The public may not want higher prices. But the people who matter do – Big Money, Big Business, and Big Government. Stay tuned."

Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! Expect Mass Currency Devaluation"

Your guide...
Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/8/24
"Alert! Expect Mass Currency Devaluation"
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "Massive Price Increases At Sam's Club!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 5/8/24
"Massive Price Increases At Sam's Club!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Sam's Club and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Musical Interlude: Marmalade, "Reflections of My Life"

Marmalade, "Reflections of My Life"

"The world is a bad place,
A bad place,
A terrible place to live,
Oh, but I don't want to die..."

"Israel is Finished with Netanyahu, Tens of Thousands Demand He Resign Now"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 5/6/24
"Israel is Finished with Netanyahu, 
Tens of Thousands Demand He Resign Now"
"Why are western media companies ignoring the tens of thousands of Israelis protesting Netanyahu and demanding his resignation? This comes as Israel bombards Rafah killing scores of civilians."
Comments here:

Jeremiah Babe, "Tesla Worker Laid Off Living Out Of His Car; Everything Is Out Of Control; People Are Trapped"

Jeremiah Babe, 5/6/24
"Tesla Worker Laid Off Living Out Of His Car; 
Everything Is Out Of Control; People Are Trapped"
Things are completely out of control debt, social unrest, war, crime
 and job losses. Prepare for more chaos  as America loses more control.
Comments here:

Canadian Prepper, "Emergency Code Red: Belarus Loads Nukes On Planes!"

Canadian Prepper, 5/6/24
"Emergency Code Red: Belarus Loads Nukes On Planes! 
US Ambassador Leaves Russia; Pentagon Lies!"
Comments here: