Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Bill Bonner, "Different Kind of Dumb, Part IV"

"Different Kind of Dumb, Part IV"

"Like a sheep he was led to the slaughter
And like a lamb dumb before its shearer..."
Acts 8: 26-40

Dublin, Ireland - "One of the key dates for understanding how we got where we are is 1992. That was the year when Francis Fukuyama wrote his famous essay and wondered if it was the ‘end of history.’ The West was triumphant. No need for further ‘history.’ No further experiments. No need to learn... to evolve... or to question. Wars? Revolutions? New systems of government or economics? All of that was in the past. We had found the winning formula.

Looking in the mirror, back then, it seemed obvious what would happen next. Everybody wanted to be like us. They’d all become ‘Westerners.’ China was already learning fast. Following the model set for it by Japan, it was building an export-led economy... selling cheap products, gaining expertise and capital... and building out its manufacturing sectors.

All those exports helped to keep US consumer prices low... and gave China the money to buy US bonds. And why wouldn’t they? Everybody knew they were the world’s largest, most liquid, and safest asset.

Putin as Capitalist: Russia, back then, had just become Russia again. The Soviet Union, with its central planning and stifling economic controls, just couldn’t compete. Its insiders looked across the border at West Germany and wanted what they saw. They realized that owning the means of production - as capitalists - would be better than continuing to control them as bureaucrats. They gave up being apparatchiks in the Soviet system and became oligarchs in the new ‘Western’ system. Vladimir Putin even thought Russia might join NATO.

The trouble for the oligarchs was that the Soviet Union produced very few goods or services that Westerners would buy. All they really had was raw materials and energy. But with the profit carrot in front of them, rather than the communist whip on their backs... the oligarchs cranked up the mines and wells... and were soon driving down prices for basic resources.

Talk about sweet spots! With the Soviet menace out of the way, the US could enjoy a ‘peace dividend;’ it could cut military spending by hundreds of billions. And with the oligarchs now flooding the world with cheap commodities... and the Chinese pumping out cheap finished products - ‘The West’ never had it so good. Its consumer costs were going down as its asset prices were going up. Let the others sweat, it could think…and print dollars.

A colossus of plenty... a titan of justice and goodness... a Goliath of military might - the US, and its whole client kingdom - basked in glory for a charmed decade. The Primary Trend was up for financial assets... and policymakers in China, Russia and the US helped keep the boom going.

But they also laid the groundwork for the next Primary Trend. The US might have used this Goldilocks period to increase its savings, update its institutions and improve its infrastructure. Instead, after 1999 its deciders - perhaps guided by an ‘invisible hand’ to take the empire down a notch - made some of the most pigheaded, disastrous policy mistakes in US history.

No Peace Dividend: Military spending actually increased. There was no ‘peace dividend.’ Instead there were capital calls to pay for an outrageous invasion of Iraq and a farcical War on Terror. Then, in 2009, the feds (including the Fed itself) bailed out Wall Street... and took interest rates down below zero (adjusted for inflation) and left them there for more than 10 years.

If this weren’t enough, trade barriers were set up to slow Chinese imports. Sanctions were imposed wantonly, weakening the dollar-based international payments system. And trillions of dollars were squandered funding wars abroad and stimmie checks at home.

In 1992, the US had a remarkable opportunity. It already stood on top of the world. And thanks to new policies in China and Russia, it could have shored up its position - debt free, entanglement free... at peace, and more prosperous than ever.

Instead, it went on a spree of war and deficit spending... adding $30 trillion to its debt. And now... its domestic politics are a laughingstock; its foreign policies are a disgrace... and as it is shackled to a $34 trillion ball and chain, America struggles with a new and pitiless Primary Trend. Its asset prices are going down as its consumer prices are going up; its economy is slowing as its financial obligations speed up.
And much of the rest of the world, watching the catastrophe in ‘real time,’ vows not to follow. Instead, it is eager to ‘de-Westernize.’ Stay tuned."

"Bad News: There's No "Plan", No Police, No Military, No Government, You're On Your Own When It Starts"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 4/29/24
"Bad News: There's No "Plan", No Police, No Military,
 No Government, You're On Your Own When It Starts"
Comments here:

Monday, April 29, 2024

Musical Interlude: Simon & Garfunkel, "The Boxer"

Simon & Garfunkel, "The Boxer"

Adventures with Danno, "Time To Start Prepping!"

Adventures with Danno, PM 4/29/24
"Time To Start Prepping!"
It is time for everyone to start prepping for the future and add these foods to your stockpile. Many grocery stores are having some super sales right now, and we need to take advantage of this opportunity!
Comments here:

"Chipotle Goes Insane; You Are One Emergency From Poverty; People Have Reached A Breaking Point"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/29/24
"Chipotle Goes Insane; You Are One Emergency From Poverty; 
People Have Reached A Breaking Point"
Comments here:

"15 Restaurant Chains Closing Multiple Stores Right Now"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 4/29/24
"15 Restaurant Chains Closing Multiple Stores Right Now"

"Over the past four years, many of us have had the unpleasant surprise of learning that our go-to restaurant, coffee shop, or fast food joint was closing doors for good. Thousands of well-established companies have gone out of business since the pandemic accelerated the descent of the U.S. economy, and conditions have been particularly tough in the restaurant industry. Even during the best of times, managing a restaurant comes with plenty of uncertainty. Though a brand can be incredibly popular amongst consumers, there’s a variety of factors that can result in mass closings, and in some cases, bankruptcy.

We tend to think that the biggest restaurant chains in America are better prepared to handle these challenges, but the truth is that many of them are, in fact, more exposed to financial problems due to their enormous expenses and extensive brick-and-mortar footprint.

Both inflation and deflation can cause drastic changes in consumer behavior, leading to lost sales and rendering some locations regrettably unprofitable. On top of that, something most people do not know is that, despite being backed by huge corporate entities, lots of restaurants have been struggling to stay afloat for quite a long time, and recent developments have just been the last straw for them.

That's why a considerable number of chains is closing multiple locations right now. While for some this is goodbye forever, for others, the closings are necessary to restore the health of their business. Executives are citing issues like underperformance and slowing foot traffic, as well as broader concerns about the strength of the American buying power over the long run, as some of the reasons behind the latest closures. Meanwhile, other companies are simply shuttering locations suddenly and without warning, leaving customers and even employees wondering what went wrong."

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Challenge From Heaven”

Full screen recommended.
2002, “Challenge From Heaven”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Stars are forming in Lynds Dark Nebula (LDN) 1251. About 1,000 light-years away and drifting above the plane of our Milky Way galaxy, the dusty molecular cloud is part of a complex of dark nebulae mapped toward the Cepheus flare region. Across the spectrum, astronomical explorations of the obscuring interstellar clouds reveal energetic shocks and outflows associated with newborn stars, including the telltale reddish glow from scattered Herbig-Haro objects hiding in the image. 
Distant background galaxies also lurk on the scene, almost buried behind the dusty expanse. This alluring view spans over two full moons on the sky, or 17 light-years at the estimated distance of LDN 1251."

"Why Dogs Live Less Than Humans"

"Why Dogs Live Less Than Humans"
by Bill Overton

"Here's the surprising response from a 6-year-old. Being a veterinarian, I had been called to examine a ten-year-old Irish Wolfhound named Belker. The dog's owners, Ron, his wife Lisa, and their little Shane, were very attached to Belker, and were expecting a miracle. I examined Belker and found that he was dying of cancer. I told the family that we couldn't do anything for Belker, and I offered to perform the euthanasia procedure for the old dog at his house.

While we were making arrangements, Ron and Lisa told me they thought it would be good for six-year-old Shane to observe the procedure. They felt as if Shane could learn something from the experience. The next day, I felt the familiar capture in my throat as Belker's family surrounded him. Shane seemed so calm, petting the old dog for the last time, that I wondered if he understood what was going on. Within minutes, Belker escaped peacefully.

The boy seemed to accept Belker's transition without any difficulty or confusion. We sat together for a while after Belker's death, wondering aloud about the sad fact that dog lives are shorter than human lives. Shane, who had been listening silently, said, "I know why." Startled, we all turned to him. What came out of his mouth afterwards surprised me. I had never heard a more comforting explanation. It has changed the way I try to live.

He said, "People are born so they can learn to live a good life, like loving everyone all the time and being kind, right?" The six-year-old boy continued, "Well, dogs already know how to do it, so they don't have to stay as long as we do."

Live simply.
Love generously.
Care deeply.
Speak kindly.

Remember, if a dog were the teacher you would learn things like:

• When your loved ones return home, always run to greet them.
• Never miss the opportunity to go for a walk.
• Allow the experience of fresh air and wind on the face to be pure ecstasy.
• Take naps.
• Stretch before getting up.
• Running, playing and playing daily.
• Thrive on attention and let people touch you.
• Avoid biting when a simple growl will do.
• On warm days, stop to lie on your back on the lawn.
• On hot days, drink plenty of water and lie down under a shaded tree.
• When you are happy, dance and move your whole body.
• Delight in the simple joy of a long walk.
• Be faithful.
• Never pretend to be something you are not.
• If what you want is buried, dig until you find it.
• When someone is having a bad day, be quiet, sit nearby, and nuzzle gently.

That's the secret of happiness we can learn from a good dog.”
Love my boy!

"Gut Check"

"Gut Check"
By Tim “xrugger” Stebbins

"What does it mean to be a free man anymore? Am I truly free when the money I pay in taxes goes to support the excesses of a profligate, overreaching, and immoral government? Am I truly free when the scum that make the rules do not abide by them? Am I not free then to ignore the rules?  Am I truly free when some cowardly dimwit at the grocery store looks askance at me for not wearing a filthy rag over my face? I know he is having an internal debate about whether he should confront me.

My hope is always that he decides in the negative, as I have had just about enough of this crap. Now, the highest court in the land has turned a blind eye to the egregious theft of the Presidency itself. Marxists across the nation are celebrating the final nail in the coffin of the American Republic. Democrats held it. “Conservatives” have hammered it home. The outward forms of ordered liberty are dead and there is no recourse for the redress of grievances. It is time for every patriot to face the situation, without illusion or reservation.

If we would recover our liberty, then we must look inward and assess our own desires, motives, and abilities. A time of choosing is upon each and every one of us. What do we owe and to whom do we owe it. What follows is an attempt to answer those questions for myself and myself alone. Others of a similar spirit may take what they wish from it and leave the rest.

The Indefensible Nation: What do I owe to my country? Its central government is thoroughly and irredeemably corrupt. It is bankrupt both fiscally and morally. As of this writing, its judiciary has shown itself incapable of defending the Republic against the depredations of leftist rabble. The tentacles of its bureaucracy reach into the lives and wallets of the productive class “eating out the substance of the people” exactly as Jefferson warned. Yet still, with the stench of corruption and theft pervading the country, this government  assumes my loyalty.

What, pray tell, has it done to deserve it? Mobs of the indoctrinated expect that we should all just “get over it” and “come together to heal” as if the gangrenous clot of necrotic tissue that is the political culture of this nation will ever heal. Our rulers, our media, and half our “countrymen” piss down our backs and still insist it’s raining. The fealty of helots is what the Lords of Washington expect. They will not get it from me.

The loyalty of free men is reserved for a government of equals, not an aristocracy of reptiles. The latter is what we suffer now. The former we once possessed, but it lies now in the dust of history. The outward form and function remain, but the spirit of liberty, which animated it, has gone. The ties by which free men bind themselves voluntarily to any form of government have long since been sundered by the actions of those who have chosen to rule rather than govern. I will not suffer those ties to become shackles.

Since my forbears bequeathed to me a form of government that no longer exists, I am released from further obligation to the abomination that has replaced it. My loyalty, like my liberty, belongs to me and me alone. It is mine to give or to withdraw as I see fit. I owe the rulers of this land nothing: not life, not liberty, not the pursuit of my own happiness. These things are mine from my first breath to my last gasp. They cannot be abrogated, regulated, or terminated by the denizens of a distant city who presume to know what is best for me. These…people (I do not have the words for the contempt I feel for them) have polluted our forms of government, destroying what they can, dismantling what they cannot.

Everywhere is grift and graft. They have taken nearly everything, yet they still want more. They want my body shackled, my spirit humbled, and my mind enslaved. They try to steal the very breath from my body with their filthy rags. They have trampled upon my God-given rights, indoctrinated my children, accused me, threatened me, and silenced me. Now they have stolen even my choice from me. This government and its leftist appendages have betrayed my trust and half my fellow citizens treat me and mine with undisguised contempt. My loyalty to them and to their government is at an end.

The Shenandoah Syndrome: What then, am I to do personally in the face of this betrayal?  My mind often comes back to the old Jimmy Stewart movie “Shenandoah.” In it, Stewart plays the patriarch of a family trying to stay out of Lincoln’s War. He hopes to keep his family intact and neutral in the conflict. He wants no part of it and sees no reason why he, or his sons, should choose sides in a war that is, in his view, peripheral to the concerns of his family and the life they have built. It is only when rape, murder, plunder and the other accouterments of war destroy the precarious balance he has maintained, that Stewart realizes that the choice has been made for him.

I know that, in the end, what is happening in this nation will come to blood. I know too, that I and mine cannot hope to be left untouched while the nation tears itself apart. My one hope is that, by virtue of where we call home, we will see the tenor and scope of the destruction before it touches our lives directly. Perhaps that small grace will allow us additional time to prepare, though I believe I have done all that common sense demands and limited resources allow in that regard.

What remains to be done is the taking an intensely personal inventory. Will I fight, run, or hide? Will I be able to lead and defend my family when the crunch comes? Would I be willing to leave them behind to engage in some broader defense of my own and other’s liberty? Do I wait for the storm or go to meet it? At 60 years of age, am I even mentally or physically capable of such an effort? My fervent wish is to be left alone to live a peaceful life. I know many like me wish the same, but Jimmy Stewart was just an actor, and my “Shenandoah” a bucolic dream. The fight will be forced upon us all. The choices we make will define us. In Lincoln’s words, “No personal significance, or insignificance, can spare one or another of us. The fiery trial through which we pass, will light us down, in honor or dishonor, to the latest generation.”

The Refining Fire: I am a peacetime veteran. I served a three-year hitch in the eighties, half that time with the 2nd Ranger Bn. in Ft. Lewis, Washington and half with a line infantry company. I do not count myself among the many chest-thumpers who are overly certain of their own intestinal fortitude and are not afraid to expound upon their warrior attributes in any number of internet outlets. In my limited experience, those who talk the most usually run the fastest. I do not include in that company those who have seen war and its desolation first hand and who now seek to educate and guide those of us who have not. I’m talking about the posers who crow about “taking back the country,” and explain in detail their future exploits in the battle for freedom.

Personally, I am certain of only a few things:  I know what it is like to exit an aircraft more door bundle than man and land in a heap in the Alaskan snow. I know how dark it gets in an equatorial jungle and what it’s like to sit in the rain for days on end. I know what trench foot looks and feels like. To my everlasting embarrassment, I know the feeling of waking up with my own .45 (in the hands of a very angry platoon sergeant) staring me in the face because I fell asleep guarding a pallet of live ammo.

I know what it is like to catch multiple fragments of a 7.62 mm ricochet in the face due to the negligence of a range safety officer and the stupidity of a member of my M60 crew. I know that face and scalp wounds bleed a lot. These are some of the things I know, but they are the experiences of long ago and comparing them to the trials of actual combat would be like comparing regular roulette to the Russian variety.

I do not think I lack personal courage, but the simple fact is that I know what I do not know, and anyone who has not been in a fight like the one coming can say no different. Any man who claims a virtue not yet tested by the fight we face is a liar and a fool. As a young man, I would have welcomed the test. Now, decades on, I ponder the depth of my commitment, the strength of my arm, and the clearness of my mind. Is the man I am now fit for the fight? Only the fight itself will reveal the truth of it. I simply do not know how I will behave when the shooting starts and to claim otherwise is the height of hubris. At the least, I hope that this old man will give good account for blessings received while on this good earth.

Hope: No good thing ever achieved by man remains unsullied by the grasping hands of those who seek to exploit it. So it is with these United States. Time, trials, the certainties of fallen human nature, and the machinations of the unprincipled have accomplished what they always accomplish. This nation will crumble and the ensuing chaos will engulf us all to one degree or another. Something good, either a restoration of the old or the institution of the new, will rise from the blood and ashes. I pray that I do not love this life so much that I would live it as a slave or be unwilling to expend it for the sake of those to come. That, at least, is my hope."
 "A man who does not have something for 
which he is willing to die is not fit to live."
- Martin Luther King Jr.

“7 Things Fear Has Stolen From You”

“7 Things Fear Has Stolen From You”
by Marc Chernoff

“There is no greater hell than to be a prisoner of fear.”
- Ben Johnson

“Courage doesn’t mean you don’t get afraid; courage means you don’t let fear stop you. Everything you want is on the other side of fear. Don’t ever hesitate to give yourself a chance to be everything you are capable of being. Although fear can feel overwhelming, and defeats more people than any other force in the world, it’s not as powerful as it seems. Fear is only as deep as your mind allows. You are still in control. The key is to acknowledge your fear and directly address it. You must step right up and confront it face to face. This tactic robs fear of its power, instead of fear robbing YOU of…

1. Your true path and purpose. Fear of being different: Don’t be fooled by what others say, especially when they try to tell you what is right for you. Listen and then draw your own conclusions.  What is your intuition telling you? There is not a clear path that everyone should follow. Your greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding in life at all the wrong things. Choose a path that fits YOU. Those who follow the crowd usually get lost in it. Challenge yourself to ask with each and every step, and each focus point that consumes your energy: “Does this thing I’m doing right now truly serve me and those I care about in the next few minutes, few months, and few years?” Whatever you settle on, just make sure you don’t gain the whole world by losing your soul and purpose in the process. 

2. Self-respect. Fear of not being good enough: Don’t be too hard on yourself. There are plenty of people willing to do that for you. Do your best and surrender the rest. Tell yourself, “I am doing the best I can with what I have in this moment. That is all I can ever expect of anyone, including me.” Love yourself and be proud of everything you do, even your mistakes, because your mistakes mean you’re trying. If you feel like others are not treating you with love and respect, check your price tag. Perhaps you subconsciously marked yourself down. Because it’s YOU who tells others what you’re worth by showing them what you are willing to accept for your time and attention. So get off the clearance rack. If you don’t value and respect yourself, wholeheartedly, no one else will either.

3. Your ability to make concrete decisions. Fear of commitment: You cannot live your life at the mercy of chance. You cannot stumble along with a map marked only with the places you fear, or the places you know you don’t want to revisit. You cannot remain trapped, endlessly, in a state where you are unable to ask for directions, even though you’re terribly lost, because you don’t know your destination. You have to commit to goals that speak to you. You have to stand up, look at yourself in the mirror, and say, “It isn’t good enough for me to know only what I DON’T want in life. I need to decide what I DO want.” 

4. Priceless opportunities and life experiences. Fear of change and discomfort: As Thich Nhat Hanh so perfectly said, “People have a hard time letting go of their suffering. Out of a fear of the unknown, they prefer suffering that is familiar.” In many cases you stay stuck in your old routines for no other reason than that they are familiar to you. In other words, you’re afraid of change and the unknown. You continually put your dreams and goals off until tomorrow, and you pass on great opportunities simply because they have the potential to lead you out of your comfort zone.

You start using excuses to justify your lack of backbone: “Someday when I have more money,” or “when I’m older,” or the over-abused “I’ll get to it as soon as I have more time.” This is a vicious cycle that leads to a deeply unsatisfying life – a way of thinking that eventually sends you to your grave with immense regret. Regret that you didn’t follow your heart. Regret that you always put everyone else’s needs before your own. Regret that you didn’t do what you could have done when you had the chance.

5. General happiness and peace of mind. Fear of facing inner truths: If you keep looking for happiness outside yourself, you will never find it. Happiness is found from within. What you seek is not somewhere else at some other time; what you seek is here and now, within you. The more you look for it outside yourself, the more it hides from you. Relax, remember the source of your deepest desires, and allow yourself to know their fulfillment. A choice, not circumstances, determines happiness. Each morning when you open your eyes, say to yourself:  “I, not external people or events, have the power to make me happy or unhappy today. It’s up to me. Yesterday is gone and tomorrow hasn’t come yet. I only have today and I’m going to be happy in it.” 

6. Your willingness to love, truly and purely. Fear of not being loved in return: Although it is nice when gestures of love are returned, true love is one-way traffic. It’s a pure flow of giving and expecting nothing in return. Anything else is a contract. Notice how whenever you allow love to flow you are always clear, calm and strong. It is only when the thought arises, “What have they given me in return?” that there is confusion and resentment. Ego transacts, love transforms. Life is too short for all these meticulous contracts and transactions.

Look out for yourself by focusing your love in a direction that feels right to you, but once you decide to love, remain clear, remain bright, and remain strong. Love without expectation. Don’t let fear get in your way. When the love you give is true, the people worthy of your love will gradually reveal themselves over time.

7. The right company. Fear of being alone: Sadly, no matter how much love you give, some relationships simply aren’t meant to be. You can try your hardest, you can do everything and say everything, but sometimes people just aren’t worth stressing over anymore, and they aren’t worth worrying about. It’s important to know when to distance yourself from someone who only hurts you and brings you down. When you give your love to someone, truly and purely without expectation, and it’s never good enough for them, there’s a good chance you’re giving your love to the wrong person.

The bottom line is that long-term relationships should help you, not hurt you. Spend time with nice people who are smart, driven and like-minded. And remember, good relationships are a sacred bond – a circle of trust. Both parties must be 100% on board. If and when the time comes to let a relationship go, don’t be hostile. Simply thank the relationships that don’t work out for you, because they just made room for the ones that will.

Next steps: Your biggest fears are completely dependent on you for their survival. Every new day is another chance to change your life, and it’s way too short to let fear interfere. Today, focus your conscious mind on things you desire, not things you fear. Doing so can bring your dreams to life.

Your turn… What has fear stolen from you?  What has it stopped you from doing, being, or achieving?  Leave a comment below and share your thoughts with the community.”

"A Brave New War: The Tribal War Over Israel"

Black Lives Matter and Free Palestine
 movements collude in the global netwar.
"A Brave New War:
The Tribal War Over Israel"
by John Robb

"What curious form of war and protest do we have before us? “War in the 21st Century will be very different from what we have come to expect,”  John Robb forecasted in the preface to his 2007 book, "Brave New War." In a nutshell: "We live in an extremely complex global system – too complex for a single state or group of states to keep under control. Certain people – guerillas – are now intentionally introducing instability into these global systems by attacking both social and economic systems. The manufactured instabilities are almost impossible to control. Additionally, many of the things we have tried in order to stop these negative actors have only made matters worse."

"In a last ditch effort, Hamas constructed the perfect trap for Israel. Why was Israel so willing to walk in? The Israeli government says it’s at war to destroy Hamas. It isn’t. It’s in an online war with a global, networked tribe for its very existence. A war it is losing.

You can see it in this recent poll (one of many that say the same thing) just after the terrorist attack. Question: Israel’s response to the Hamas attack is fully justified (US citizens by age)?

65+ 81%.
50-64 56%.
35-49 44%.
18-34 27%.

This result tells us that Israel is on track to lose US support in a generation or less. However, given the networked tribalism underway, this result tells us that the US won’t just be unsupportive of Israel; it will be antagonistic to it.

Tribalized Moral Warfare: The reason for this sudden shift is the rise of tribalized and networked moral warfare. Until recently, Israel was largely unopposed in its ability to wage moral warfare, both on and offline. It was able, with the support of its diaspora, to control the flow of information and the moral framing of its wars, and any attempt to wage moral warfare in opposition to Israel was shut down by labeling it anti-semitism. This control provided them with support from Western governments and their institutional media. Support (from $ to weapons to military intervention to diplomatic cover) they need to survive. That’s over.

Networked tribalism, similar to what we have seen with anti-racism/fascism/etc., has rapidly emerged to wage moral warfare in opposition to Israel. This tribal moral warfare routes around the traditional media, and in some cases, it coerces media companies into alignment. Moreover, networked tribalism connects people to this conflict through empathy triggers that forge fictive kinship, turning billions of people unrelated to the participants in real life into partisans.

No Peace: Tribal moral warfare isn’t a political contest. Solutions and compromise aren’t possible. Peaceful outcomes are an anathema. In networked tribal warfare, the sides are framed as absolute good vs. absolute evil. Opressor/oppressed. Peaceful citizens/terrorists. As a result, tribal moral warfare dehumanizes the opposition.

Debate immediately devolves. Since networked tribes only come together to oppose an enemy and not about position goals, they won’t acknowledge or even ‘see’ the evil acts of their side. They fall outside of the oppositional pattern they are using to make sense of the conflict. For example: The charges “You are defending terrorists who behead babies” or “You are defending a country that blows up and starves babies” aren’t even heard by the people they are used against. Networked tribes don’t deal in nuance. They are maximalists. The problem for Israel, and those who support it, is that this isn’t a fair fight.

The Tactics of Mistake: On January 11, 2024, South Africa started to make its case that Israel has breached the 1948 Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice (of which Israel is a signatory). The vote on provisional measures to provide protection and aid to Palestinians in Gaza (and potentially the West Bank) took as little as a week. Regardless of the outcome, this is a disaster for Israel. This isn’t all; this war’s length, brutality, and complexity have led to an ever-increasing amount of damage to Israel. Here are a few examples:

The tunnel network and the bombing campaign (rubble) have combined to turn Gaza into an unforgiving battlefield that is a cross between two of the most deadly battlefields of WW2: Iwo Jima (tunnels) and Stalingrad. As a result, hundreds of IDF soldiers have been killed and thousands critically wounded (long-term care), damaging IDF morale and discipline.

Extensive tunneling has made it impossible for Israel to effectively ID Hamas targets, which has led to a very messy bombing campaign, resulting in tens of thousands of civilian deaths. These deaths have fueled the growth of anti-Israel networked tribalism across the world (a generational time bomb for Israel within the US) and prepared the ground for South Africa’s action.

The complexities of this prolonged war have led to an increasing number of self-inflicted incidents that have damaged Israel both internally and externally. For example, in a complete breakdown in discipline, the IDF killed three shirtless Israeli hostages waving a white flag.

The reason things have gone so badly for Israel is that this war was a trap. A trap laid in a last-ditch move (just before the normalization of relations between Israel and much of the Arab world) by a weak adversary with few other options. A perfect trap that Israel was compelled to walk into.

Why Terrorism Works: Terrorism succeeds - in the rare times it does work - when the target state overreacts to the provocation and damages itself by doing so. The trick to knowing when it will work (and when it will be devastating) relies on one insight from Sun Tzu. "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."

What does knowing your enemy mean? It means that you understand how your enemy makes decisions. - John Robb. So it goes..."

The Daily "Near You?"

Madisonville, Kentucky, USA. Thanks or stopping by!

"My Own View..."

And sometimes, all you can think is...

“My own view is that this planet is used as a penal colony, lunatic asylum and
dumping ground by a superior civilization, to get rid of the undesirable and unfit.
I can’t prove it, but you can’t disprove it either.”
- Christopher Hitchens
And you'd better believe they're never letting us off this rock...

"The Universal And Inevitable Excuse..."

And, of course, the universal and inevitable excuse…
“A person who is going to commit an inhuman act invariably
excuses himself to himself by saying, “I’m only human, after all.”
- Sydney J. Harris
o
I've always wondered...
Everyone says “Only human…” compared to what?

Free Download: Mark Twain, "Letters From the Earth"

"Mark Twain's 'Letters From the Earth'"
by Wikipedia

“Letters from the Earth” is one of Mark Twain's posthumously published works. The essays were written during a difficult time in Twain's life; he was deep in debt and had lost his wife and one of his daughters. Initially, his daughter, Clara Clemens, objected to its publication in March 1939, probably because of its controversial and iconoclastic views on religion, claiming it presented a "distorted" view of her father. Henry Nash Smith helped change her position in 1960. Clara explained her change of heart in 1962 saying that "Mark Twain belonged to the world" and that public opinion had become more tolerant. She was also influenced to release the papers due to her annoyance with Soviet propaganda charges that her father's ideas were being suppressed in the United States. The papers were edited in 1939 by Bernard DeVoto. The book consists of a series of short stories, many of which deal with God and Christianity. The title story consists of eleven letters written by the archangel Satan to archangels, Gabriel and Michael, about his observations on the curious proceedings of earthly life and the nature of man's religions. Other short stories in the book include a bedtime story about a family of cats Twain wrote for his daughters, and an essay explaining why an anaconda is morally superior to Man.

Textual references make clear that sections, at least, of “Letters from the Earth” were written shortly before his death in April 1910. (For instance, Letter VII, in discussing the ravages of hookworm, refers to the $1,000,000 gift of John D. Rockefeller Jr. to help eradicate the disease – a gift that was announced on October 28, 1909, less than six months before Twain's death.)"
Excerpt: "Letters From the Earth"
by Mark Twain

"This is a strange place, an extraordinary place, and interesting. There is nothing resembling it at home. The people are all insane, the other animals are all insane, the earth is insane, Nature itself is insane. Man is a marvelous curiosity. When he is at his very very best he is a sort of low grade nickel-plated angel; at is worst he is unspeakable, unimaginable; and first and last and all the time he is a sarcasm. Yet he blandly and in all sincerity calls himself the "noblest work of God." This is the truth I am telling you. And this is not a new idea with him, he has talked it through all the ages, and believed it. Believed it, and found nobody among all his race to laugh at it.

Moreover - if I may put another strain upon you - he thinks he is the Creator's pet. He believes the Creator is proud of him; he even believes the Creator loves him; has a passion for him; sits up nights to admire him; yes, and watch over him and keep him out of trouble. He prays to Him, and thinks He listens. Isn't it a quaint idea? Fills his prayers with crude and bald and florid flatteries of Him, and thinks He sits and purrs over these extravagancies and enjoys them. He prays for help, and favor, and protection, every day; and does it with hopefulness and confidence, too, although no prayer of his has ever been answered. The daily affront, the daily defeat, do not discourage him, he goes on praying just the same. There is something almost fine about this perseverance. I must put one more strain upon you: he thinks he is going to heaven!"
Freely download "Letters From the Earth", by Mark Twain, here: 

"The Only Time We've Got..."

o
"If you were going to die soon and had only one phone call
 you could make, who would you call and what would you say? 
And why are you waiting?"
- Stephen Levine
o
“This is your life, and it's ending one minute at a time.
Every breath is a choice.
Every minute is a choice.
To be or not to be.
Every time you don't throw yourself down the stairs, that's a choice.
Every time you don't crash your car, you re-enlist.
If death meant just leaving the stage long enough to change costume
and come back as a new character...Would you slow down? Or speed up?"
- Chuck Palahniuk

"Falling From Grace"

"Falling From Grace"
by Jeff Thomas

"Years ago, Doug Casey mentioned in a correspondence to me, "Empires fall from grace with alarming speed." Every now and then, you receive a comment that, although it may have been stated casually, has a lasting effect, as it offers uncommon insight. For me, this was one of those and it’s one that I’ve kept handy at my desk since that time, as a reminder.

I’m from a British family, one that left the UK just as the British Empire was about to begin its decline. They expatriated to the "New World" to seek promise for the future. As I’ve spent most of my life centred in a British colony – the Cayman Islands – I’ve had the opportunity to observe many British contract professionals who left the UK seeking advancement, which they almost invariably find in Cayman. Curiously, though, most returned to the UK after a contract or two, in the belief that the UK would bounce back from its decline, and they wanted to be on board when Britain "came back."

This, of course, never happened. The US replaced the UK as the world’s foremost empire, and although the UK has had its ups and downs over the ensuing decades, it hasn’t returned to its former glory. And it never will.

If we observe the empires of the world that have existed over the millennia, we see a consistent history of collapse without renewal. Whether we’re looking at the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, or any other that’s existed at one time, history is remarkably consistent: The decline and fall of any empire never reverses itself; nor does the empire return, once it’s fallen.

But of what importance is this to us today? Well, today, the US is the world’s undisputed leading empire and most Americans would agree that, whilst it’s going through a bad patch, it will bounce back and might even be better than ever.

Not so, I’m afraid. All empires follow the same cycle. They begin with a population that has a strong work ethic and is self-reliant. Those people organize to form a nation of great strength, based upon high productivity. This leads to expansion, generally based upon world trade. At some point, this gives rise to leaders who seek, not to work in partnership with other nations, but to dominate them, and of course, this is when a great nation becomes an empire. The US began this stage under the flamboyant and aggressive Teddy Roosevelt.

The twentieth century was the American century and the US went from victory to victory, expanding its power. But the decline began in the 1960s, when the US started to pursue unwinnable wars, began the destruction of its currency and began to expand its government into an all-powerful body. Still, this process tends to be protracted and the overall decline often takes decades.

So, how does that square with the quote, "Empires fall from grace with alarming speed"? Well, the preparation for the fall can often be seen for a generation or more, but the actual fall tends to occur quite rapidly.

What happens is very similar to what happens with a schoolyard bully. The bully has a slow rise, based upon his strength and aggressive tendency. After a number of successful fights, he becomes first revered, then feared. He then takes on several toadies who lack his abilities but want some of the spoils, so they do his bidding, acting in a threatening manner to other schoolboys. The bully then becomes hated. No one tells him so, but the other kids secretly dream of his defeat, hopefully in a shameful manner.

Then, at some point, some boy who has a measure of strength and the requisite determination has had enough and takes on the bully. If he defeats him, a curious thing happens. The toadies suddenly realise that the jig is up and they head for the hills, knowing that their source of power is gone. Also, once the defeated bully is down, all the anger, fear and hatred that his schoolmates felt for him come out, and they take great pleasure in his defeat. And this, in a nutshell, is what happens with empires.

A nation that comes to the rescue in times of genuine need (such as the two World Wars) is revered. But once that nation morphs into a bully that uses any excuse to invade countries such as Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria, its allies may continue to bow to it but secretly fear it and wish that it could be taken down a peg. When the empire then starts looking around for other nations to bully, such as Iran and Venezuela, its allies again say nothing but react with fear when they see the John Boltons and Mike Pompeos beating the war drums and making reckless comments.

At present, the US is focusing primarily on economic warfare, but if this fails to get the world to bend to its dominance, the US has repeatedly warned, regarding possible military aggression, that "no option is off the table." The US has reached the classic stage when it has become a reckless bully, and its support structure of allies has begun to de-couple as a result. At the same time that allies begin to pull back and make other plans for their future, those citizens within the empire who tend to be the creators of prosperity also begin to seek greener pastures.

History has seen this happen countless times. The "brain drain" occurs, in which the best and most productive begin to look elsewhere for their future. Just as the most productive Europeans crossed the Pond to colonize the US when it was a new, promising country, their present-day counterparts have begun moving offshore.

The US is presently in a state of suspended animation. It still appears to be a major force, but its buttresses are quietly disappearing. At some point in the near future, it’s likely that the US government will overplay its hand and aggress against a foe that either is stronger or has alliances that, collectively, make it stronger.

The US will be entering into warfare at a time when it’s broke, and this will become apparent suddenly and dramatically. The final decline will occur with alarming speed. When this happens, the majority of Americans will hope in vain for a reverse of events. They’ll be inclined to hope that, if they collectively say, "Whoops, we goofed," the world will be forgiving, returning them to their former glory. But historically, this never occurs. Empires fall with alarming speed, because the support systems that made them possible have decamped and have become reinvigorated elsewhere.

Rather than mourn the loss of empire that’s on the horizon, we’d be better served if we focus instead on those parts of the world that are likely to benefit from this inevitability."

"How It Really Is"

 

Adventures with Danno, "Strange Prices At Big Lots!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, AM 4/29/24
"Strange Prices At Big Lots!
This Is Crazy! Good & Bad Deals!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Big Lots and are noticing some very strange price increases on different grocery items. We also are checking out some of the .99 cents deals they have going on that are a little confusing!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! Bank Bail-Ins Being Set Up; Expect A Major Wall St. Bank To Fail!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/29/24
"Alert! Bank Bail-Ins Being Set Up; 
Expect A Major Wall St. Bank To Fail!"
Comments here:
o

Dan, I Allegedly, "People Have No Money - Bills Are Not Getting Paid"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 4/29/24
"People Have No Money - 
Bills Are Not Getting Paid"
"Avoid the Credit Card Debt Trap! In today's financial climate, falling into debt is easier than ever We explore alarming trends in consumer spending and the dire state of economic affairs. With banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America writing off billions in bad debt, it's crucial to understand the pitfalls of credit dependency. We are now learning that banks are having massive charge offs from their customers. The average person is not paying their bills right now at a record pace."
Comments here:

Bill Bonner, "Different Kind of Dumb, Part III"

"Different Kind of Dumb, Part III"
Federal policies - ultra low interest rates - exaggerated the tops. 
Now, as if guided by an “invisible hand,” they will exaggerate the bottoms.
by Bill Bonner

Dublin, Ireland - "One of the problems with being the world’s hegemon is that you become like a TikTok idol; you can’t stop looking at the screen and admiring yourself. Your beliefs, you think, are the beliefs every successful society should have. Your institutions are those everyone should mimic. Your rules and regulations should apply to everyone. And if anyone else wants to be successful, they’ll have to do what you did.

But let’s back up. Here’s what we know so far: Bonds topped out in July 2020. Stocks topped out December 2021. These twin peaks marked the beginning of a new Primary Trend. If we are right, we will not see a repeat of these highs, probably not in our lifetimes, and probably not before major new lows are registered. The Primary Trend now is headed down for asset prices, and up for interest rates.

Exaggeration Nation: Federal policies —- ultra low interest rates - exaggerated the tops. Now, as if guided by an “invisible hand,” they will exaggerate the bottoms. That is, the feds will spend too much money, get involved in too many wars, limit trade, reward their cronies... punish their opponents... and enact regulations and policies that will curtail output, thus raising real consumer prices and increasing poverty.

We have no authority for this, the tail end part of our outlook. It is a guess. But it’s what a late, degenerate empire tends to do. And so far, the feds are doing it - what they ought to do, if their real goal were to take the US down a peg and make things worse for most people.

This backasswards view seems to be the best way to understand the recently passed $95 billion “foreign aid” act, which can only be justified in the most abstract terms - security, nobility and so forth, which, we suspect, is nothing more than claptrap to disguise what is primarily a boondoggle for the firepower industry.

But today, let’s look deeper... into the megapolitical mush. We, almost all of us reading this commentary, live in The West. Our views are those of westerners. Our news and opinions come from the western press.

If we listened to Tucker Carlson’s interview with Vladimir Putin, we quickly realized that he had an entirely different perspective. Did he live on another planet? Was he just dumb? Maybe... but it was a different kind of dumb. In the Ukraine-Russia war, for example, we westerners are told that the Russians are the ‘bad guys.’ Almost all of us believe it. But Putin doesn’t believe it. What’s wrong with him? In Gaza, we are expected to believe that the Israelis are the good guys, even if they have ‘gone too far.’ Only a fringe of intellectuals, students, and leftists think otherwise. What’s wrong with them?

Foreign Entanglements: And what about the generations who came before us and now sleep in the earth? They were clear about it…we would be better off avoiding ‘foreign entanglements’; now we’ve got them all over the place. And for 180 years they did their best to control deficits. Even as late as the Reagan administration total accumulated US debt was less than $1 trillion. Were they dumb too, for trying to live within their means?

We also know that our thoughts - shaped as they are by our contacts and circumstances, our influencers and bigmouths - are the correct ones. After all, our models for government, markets, courts, fast food, movies, news media, and ‘defense’ dominate the world. They are successful. They must be ‘right.’ We are the chosen people. We invaded North and South America, Australia, too…and practically exterminated the indigenous peoples. It wasn’t the other way around.

Our western world must be freer, fairer, richer and smarter than any rival. And if anyone wants to be our partner... an ally...or a friend, he’ll do things our way. And it almost goes without saying that a “dictator” in charge of a quirky, marginal economy such as Russia’s, would do things differently... and make a mess out of it. So, too, how could a communist central planner, such as Chairman Xi, possibly ‘run’ a successful economy... especially one with 1.4 billion people in it? And yet, the Chinese and Russian economies are both growing 3-4 times faster than the US. What’s going on? Didn’t we sanction them enough?

And what’s this? Oilprice.com: "China Is Winning The Race for Affordable EVs." "In China alone, EV sales are set to jump to about 10 million this year, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country."

Asia Times: "What haunts policymakers is the realization that the US no longer has... [a WWII-style]... industrial edge. Today China is the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. The US isn’t as far behind China as Japan was behind the US in the 1940s, but it’s no longer the arsenal of democracy.

Today the US has the world’s second largest manufacturing economy and its $2.5 trillion in annual manufacturing output exceeds the entire economies of all but seven countries. But it’s a distant second and its capacity to build enough of the most important tools of war is open to question. Old-fashioned metal bending is among America’s hollowed-out sectors. Measured by output dollar value, the three largest US manufacturing industries are chemicals; computer and electronic products; and food, beverage and tobacco products.

Meanwhile, China is said to be acquiring weapons five to six times faster than the US. In a conflict over Taiwan, would its vast manufacturing infrastructure enable it to outproduce the US the way the US outproduced Japan and Germany in World War II? Bending metal is what you have to do if you’re going to make tanks, planes or bombs. But maybe we can buy them from the Chinese? Tomorrow... tune in for more on a different kind of dumb."