Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Bill Bonner, "Has America Lost Its Groove?"

"Has America Lost Its Groove?"
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "The wind came in such gusts, it nearly knocked the young woman from Pennsylvania off her feet. And the rain…driving at us like an attack of drones…forced us to take cover behind stone walls. We’re touring a fascinating corner of Ireland called the Burren. “No one comes here for the beautiful weather,” said a shopkeeper. More tomorrow…
Hotter than Expected: Meanwhile, between theory and practice is, alas, real life. And in real life, in America circa 2024, things are not at all as bright as Joe Biden might believe. First, the latest inflation data shows price increases are not disappearing. Here’s yesterday’s Wall Street Journal: "The latest reading of US inflation was hotter than economists expected…prices rose 3.2% in February from a year earlier, the latest installment in a string of recent data suggesting that inflation remains stubbornly high."

Higher prices mean lower real income. Breitbart: "Record Number Plunder Their 401(k)s in Biden’s America." “A record share of 401(k) account holders took early withdrawals from their accounts last year for financial emergencies,” reports the Wall Street Journal. “Overall, 3.6% of its plan participants did so last year, up from 2.8% in 2022 and a pre-pandemic average of about 2%.”

The whole point of a 401(k) is to keep that money out of reach until you reach age 59 ½ or above. Removing that money earlier is about the worst financial move anyone can make. The beauty of these retirement accounts is that 1) you defer your income tax on your contribution, and 2) you invest long-term and watch your money grow and grow over the decades.

Yes, dear reader, things are far from groovy in America today.

The Price of Redemption: Yesterday, we allowed ourselves a little daydream. It was about what Mr. Biden might have said, if he were a decent man, with a reasonable intelligence, who wanted to make a lasting, important difference for The People he is meant to represent.

It is still ‘theoretically’ possible to reverse America’s slide into debt and chaos. But it’s not easy. Drug addicts ‘hit bottom’ before they reform. Alcoholics too. Sinners repent. Even former Defense Secretaries may shed tears and regret the misery they caused (Robert MacNamara is the only one we’ve ever heard of who did so). Redemption comes at a price.

In theory, a man might be ‘reborn’ at 90…but in practice, he dies. So too, like a grand old tree, cut into pieces to make common chipboard, an empire must be crushed and humiliated. It must hit some kind of bottom before it can be reconstituted as a law-abiding Republic.

But where does the ‘bottom’ lie? We keep an eye on Argentina, looking for a clue. If the gaucho republic has not actually found its bottom, it must be close. Sixty percent of the people in the country live in poverty. Compared to the rest of the world, it has been going downhill for 75 years. Doing business is such a challenge – with constantly-shifting financial lanes – that most people either crack up…or give up. GDP slumps. Ambitious people leave the country. And those who remain – including our own kith and kin – develop extraordinary financial survival skills.

Less Groovy: And now, from Argentina, comes a bit of hope. Milei says what Joe Biden doesn’t. He’s identified the real problem – the ‘political caste,’ with all its cons, tricks, and grifts. And he has a plan to correct things. He failed to win the support he needed in the Argentine parliament, so he’s gone to state governors and The People with something he calls the "25th of May pact". It’s a plan, with several key elements, inter alia – 1) the inviolability of private property. 2) a non-negotiable balanced budget. 3) government spending must be kept under 25% of GDP and 4) free trade.

In the US today, federal budgets haven’t been balanced in 50 years. The US balance of trade has been negative, too, for half a century. And the cost of government – including taxes, regulation and inflation – must be running over 30% of GDP. Things are becoming less groovy all the time.

But let us not despair. So far, no pompous, gold-braided military numbskull has seized power. No gangs of brownshirts or blackshirts ‘disappear’ their opponents at night. Shops are still full. The stock market is still near a top, not a bottom. And somewhere ahead, perhaps far ahead, lies the bottom. Sooner or later, we will find it."

Musical Interlude: Afshin, "Prayer of Change"

Full screen recommended.
Afshin, "Prayer of Change"

"A Look to the Heavens With Chet Raymo"

“Reaching For The Stars”
by Chet Raymo
“Here is a spectacular detail of the Eagle Nebula, a gassy star-forming region of the Milky Way Galaxy, about 7,000 light-years away. This particular spire of gas and dust was recently featured on APOD (Astronomy Picture of the Day). The Eagle lies in the equatorial constellation Serpens. If you went out tonight and looked at this part of the sky - more or less midway between Arcturus and Antares - you might see nothing at all. The brightest star in Serpens is of the third magnitude, perhaps invisible in an urban environment. No part of the Eagle Nebula is available to unaided human vision. How big is the nebula in the sky? Hold a pinhead at arm's length and it would just about cover the spire. I like to think about things not mentioned in the APOD descriptions.

If the Sun were at the bottom of the spire, Alpha centauri, our nearest stellar neighbor, would be about halfway up the column. Sirius, the brightest star in Earth's sky, would be near the top. Let's say you sent out a spacecraft from the bottom of the spire that travelled at the speed of the two Voyager craft that are now traversing the outer reaches of the Solar System. It would take more than 200,000 years to reach the top of the spire.

The Hubble Space Telescope cost a lot of money to build, deploy, and operate. It has done a lot of good science. But perhaps the biggest return on the investment is to turn on ordinary folks like you and me to the scale and complexity of the universe. The human brain evolved, biologically and culturally, in a universe conceived on the human scale. We resided at its center. The stars were just up there on the dome of night. The Sun and Moon attended our desires. "All the world's a stage," wrote Shakespeare, and he meant it literally; the cosmos was designed by a benevolent creator as a stage for the human drama. All of that has gone by the board. Now we can travel in our imagination for 200,000 years along a spire of glowing, star-birthing gas that is only the tiniest fragment of a nebula that is only the tiniest fragment of a galaxy that is but one of hundreds of billions of galaxies we can potentially see with our telescopes.

Most of us still live psychologically in the universe of Dante and Shakespeare. The biggest intellectual challenge of our times is how to bring our brains up to speed. How to shake our imaginations out of the slumber of centuries. How to learn to live purposefully in a universe that is apparently indifferent to the human drama. How to stretch the human story to match the light-years.”

The Times..."

"The times might be unpleasant, repulsive. The ghastly chaos, the abhorrent incivility might be intolerable, might force us into argument or leave us panic-stricken. On such occasions people build within themselves a conviction that the world outside is diabolical. The whimsical insults test our level of endurance, causing us to plead for mercy, wanting us to be pitied than exploited and victimized. Often this grief and shame form a delusion within us that there no longer exists good in this world, that good people are fictitious, and that goodness has lost its definition altogether. But such is not true because there are still people who are virtuous, unselfish, willing to help and possessing the ability of restoring our faith in humanity. To disregard them, their presence, would be as heinous as the deeds of the people who are unlike them. The times might be unpleasant, repulsive, but we'll come out it, unharmed and liberated."
- Chirag Tulsiani
o
Sam: "It's like in the great stories Mr. Frodo, the ones that really mattered. Full of darkness and danger they were, and sometimes you didn't want to know the end because how could the end be happy? How could the world go back to the way it was when so much bad had happened? But in the end it's only a passing thing, this shadow, even darkness must pass. A new day will come, and when the sun shines it'll shine out the clearer. Those were the stories that stayed with you, that meant something even if you were too small to understand why. But I think Mr. Frodo, I do understand, I know now folk in those stories had lots of chances of turning back, only they didn't. They kept going because they were holding on to something.
Frodo: What are we holding onto, Sam?
Sam: That there's some good in the world, Mr. Frodo, and it's worth fighting for."
- Samwise Gamgee, "Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers"

Jeremiah Babe, "The Dollar Store Apocalypse Has Left Thousands Without A Job; Home Sales Keep Plunging"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/13/24
"The Dollar Store Apocalypse Has Left 
Thousands Without A Job; Home Sales Keep Plunging"
Comments here:

Epic Economist, "The Banking Crisis Of 2024 Has Already Started"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist 3/13/24
"The Banking Crisis Of 2024 Has Already Started"
"Since the beginning of the year, investors have been nervous as the bank system faces collapse. After March, the U.S. banking system will take a dark turn, and rates will go up. If rates go high, small banks that are holding all of these commercial real estate loans are on the brink of collapse. However, the failure has started with the New York Community Bancorp; it has crashed 45% to fresh 30-year lows."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Arlington, Washington, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"What Are The Facts?"

"What are the facts? Again and again and againwhat are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what the stars foretell, avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the un-guessable verdict of history - what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!" - Robert A. Heinlein

And always remember...
"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains,
however improbable, must be the truth."
- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "Sherlock Holmes"

Dan, I Allegedly, "Your Car is Spying on You"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 3/13/24
"Your Car is Spying on You"
"This is absolutely crazy. Your car company is giving your driving data to your insurance company. This is one reason why your insurance rates are going through the roof."
Comments here:

"Hang In There..."

“Using time, pressure and patience, the universe gradually changes caterpillars into butterflies, sand into pearls, and coal into diamonds. You’re being worked on too, so hang in there. Just because something isn’t apparent right now, doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. It’s not until the end do you realize, sometimes your biggest blessings were disguised by pain and suffering. They were not placed there to break you, but to make you.”
- “The Angel Affect”

“What the caterpillar calls the end of the world the master calls a butterfly.”
- Richard Bach

“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”

“Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane”
by Simon Black

“In the early summer of 1914, Albert Einstein was about to start a prestigious new job as Director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics. The position was a big deal for the 35-year old Einstein – confirmation that he was one of the leading scientific minds in the world. And he was excited about what he would be able to achieve there. But within weeks of Einstein’s arrival, the German government canceled plans for the Institute; World War I had broken out, and all of Europe was gearing up for one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history.

The impact of the Great War was immeasurable. It cost the lives of 20 million people. It bankrupted entire nations. The war ripped two major European powers off the map – the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire – and deposited them in the garbage can of history. Austria-Hungary in particular boasted the second largest land mass in Europe, the third highest population, and one of the biggest economies. Plus it was a leading manufacturer of high-tech machinery. Yet by the end of the war it would no longer exist.

World War I also played a major role in the emergence of communism in Russia through the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Plus it was also a critical factor in the astonishing rise of the Nazi party in Germany. Without the Great War, Adolf Hitler would have been an obscure Austrian vagabond, and our world would be an entirely different place.

One of the most bizarre things about World War I was how predictable it was. Tensions had been building in Europe for years, and the threat of war was deemed so likely that most major governments invested heavily in detailed war plans. The most famous was Germany’s “Schlieffen Plan”, a military offensive strategy named after its architect, Count Alfred von Schlieffen. To describe the Schlieffen Plan as “comprehensive” is a massive understatement.

As AJP describes in his book "War by Timetable", the Schlieffen Plan called for rapidly moving hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front lines, plus food, equipment, horses, munitions, and other critical supplies, all in a matter of DAYS. Tens of thousands of trains were criss-crossing Europe during the mobilization, and as you can imagine, all the trains had to run precisely on time. A train that was even a minute early or a minute late would cause a chain reaction to the rest of the plan, affecting the time tables of other trains and other troop movements. In short, there was no room for error.

In many respects the Schlieffen Plan is still with us to this day – not with regards to war, but for monetary policy. Like the German General Staff more than a century ago, modern central bankers concoct the most complicated, elaborate plans to engineer economic victory. Their success depends on being able to precisely control the [sometimes irrational] behavior of hundreds of millions of consumers, millions of businesses, dozens of foreign nations, and trillions of dollars of capital. And just like the obtusely complex war plans from 1914, central bank policy requires that all the trains run on time. There is no room for error.

This is nuts. Economies are comprised of billions of moving pieces that are beyond anyone’s control and often have competing interests. A government that’s $34 trillion in debt requires cheap money (i.e. low interest rates) to stay afloat. Yet low interest rates are severely punishing for savers, retirees, and pension funds (including Social Security) because they’re unable to generate a sufficient rate of return to meet their needs.

Low interest rates are great for capital intensive businesses that need to borrow money. But they also create dangerous asset bubbles and can eventually cause a painful rise in inflation. Raise interest rates too high, however, and it could bankrupt debtors and throw the economy into a tailspin. Like I said, there’s no room for error – they have to find the perfect balance between growth and inflation.

Several years ago hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio summed it up perfectly when he said, “It becomes more and more difficult to balance those things as time goes on. It may not be a problem in the next year or two, but the risk of not getting it right increases with time. The risk of them getting it wrong is clearly growing. I truly hope they don’t get it wrong. But if they ever do, people may finally look back and wonder how we could have been so foolish to hand total control of our economy over to an unelected committee of bureaucrats with a mediocre track record… and then expect them to get it right forever. It’s pretty insane when you think about it."

As Einstein quipped at the height of World War I in 1917, “What a pity we don’t live on Mars so that we could observe the futile activities of human beings only through a telescope…”
Freely download "Ideas And Opinions", by Albert Einstein, here:

"How It Really Is"

 

Gregory Mannarino, "It's Over! The FED Is Winning On All Fronts, It's Totally Unstoppable!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/13/24
"It's Over! The FED Is Winning On All Fronts,
 It's Totally Unstoppable!"
Comments here:
o

"Middle East Geopolitics 3/13/24"

Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 3/13/24
"U.S. Intelligence Report Suggests Netanyahu's 
Far-Right Government Will Collapse"
Comments here:
o
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 3/13/24
"Phil Giraldi: How Dangerous Is Israel to the US?"
Comments here:
o
Scott Ritter, 3/13/24
"Israel Will LOSE The War And The IDF
 Is Not Ready For What Comes Next"
"Former US Marine Corps Officer and UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter gives his assessment of Israel's ongoing war and how rising tensions in the region could be its doom."

"Alarming News: Orbital EMP Weapon Confirmed, Massive U.S. Troop Deployment Signals Impending Conflict"

"Alarming News: Orbital EMP Weapon Confirmed,
Massive U.S. Troop Deployment Signals Impending Conflict"
by Mike Adams

"We have disturbing new intel today that confirms the existence of an orbital EMP weapon that appears to be capable of taking out the entire U.S. power grid without warning. In addition, we have unconfirmed (but very concerning) intel that says up to 100,000 U.S. troops are being readied for deployment to the Middle East (not Ukraine). The U.S. is abandoning Ukraine and shifting to the Middle East. Additional rumors point to a CIA-led attempted political coup against Netanyahu, followed by U.S. troops in Gaza, Israel and the West Bank to enforce a cease fire."
Video here:

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

"Credit Crisis Worsens As 75 Million People Stop Paying!"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 3/12/24
"Credit Crisis Worsens As 
75 Million People Stop Paying!"
"The U.S. economy is facing a severe credit crisis, as 75 million people have stopped paying their debts, according to a recent report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The report reveals that millions of Americans are struggling to repay their loans, mortgages, credit cards, student loans, and other debts due to the combined effects of the pandemic, the recession, the inflation, and the reserve ratio. This widespread non-payment of loans, credit card balances, and other financial obligations has sent shockwaves through the banking sector, raising concerns about the solvency of lending institutions and the potential for a cascading effect on the global economy."
Comments here:

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal, Top Trends 2024"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 3/12/24
"Trends Journal, Top Trends 2024"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times.
Comments here:

"Inflation Report (More Bad News); Americans Are Going To Lose Everything; Ponzi Scheme Is Crashing"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/12/24
"Inflation Report (More Bad News); Americans Are 
Going To Lose Everything; Ponzi Scheme Is Crashing"
Comments here:

"100% PROOF That The Fast Food Crisis Is About To Hit - $50 Per Meal!"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 3/12/24
"100% PROOF That The Fast Food Crisis 
Is About To Hit - $50 Per Meal!"
"Once hailed for its affordability and convenience, the fast-food industry is now facing an undeniable crisis that threatens to reshape the way we eat on the go. The days of grabbing a quick bite for a few dollars seem increasingly distant, with reports of fast-food meals costing as much as 50 dollars. As inflation rates soar, dining out has become a luxury that many cannot afford."
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Spirit Tribe Awakening, "Raise Positive Vibrations"

Full screen recommended.
Spirit Tribe Awakening, "Raise Positive Vibrations"
"528Hz Positive Energy, Self Healing with 417Hz Solfeggio frequency. Peaceful, empowering and soothing music and nature to nurture your mind, body, and soul. Supporting and empowering you on your life journey." I can't praise this visually beautiful, and very effective, video enough. In these incredibly highly stressful times, please be kind to yourself and take the time to savor this exquisite work in full screen mode. Headphones suggested but not necessary. It works, as simple as that...
- CP

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Sculpted by stellar winds and radiation, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud by chance has assumed this recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is some 1,500 light-years distant, embedded in the vast Orion cloud complex.
About five light-years "tall", the dark cloud is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is visible only because its obscuring dust is silhouetted against the glowing red emission nebula IC 434. Stars are forming within the dark cloud. Contrasting blue reflection nebula NGC 2023, surrounding a hot, young star, is at the lower left. The gorgeous color image combines both narrowband and broadband images recorded using three different telescopes.”

"The World Rests In The Night..."

“The world rests in the night. Trees, mountains, fields, and faces are released from the prison of shape and the burden of exposure. Each thing creeps back into its own nature within the shelter of the dark. Darkness is the ancient womb. Nighttime is womb-time. Our souls come out to play. The darkness absolves everything; the struggle for identity and impression falls away. We rest in the night.”
- John O'Donohue,
o
"Anam Cara: A Book of Celtic Wisdom"
“On the day when
the weight deadens
on your shoulders
and you stumble,
may the clay dance
to balance you.
And when your eyes
freeze behind
the grey window
and the ghost of loss
gets in to you,
may a flock of colors,
indigo, red, green,
and azure blue
come to awaken in you
a meadow of delight.
When the canvas frays
in the currach of thought
and a stain of ocean
blackens beneath you,
may there come across the waters
a path of yellow moonlight
to bring you safely home.
May the nourishment of the earth be yours,
may the clarity of light be yours,
may the fluency of the ocean be yours,
may the protection of the ancestors be yours.
And so may a slow
wind work these words
of love around you,
an invisible cloak
to mind your life.”
o
John O'Donohue was an Irish author, poet, philosopher and former Catholic priest. He was born in County Clare on January 1, 1956. He died suddenly on January 4, 2008. He is best known for popularizing Celtic spirituality and is the author of a number of best-selling books on the subject.
Directly download "Anam Cara", by John O'Donohue, here:

"Decide..."

“We're all going to die. We don't get much say over how or when, but we do get to decide how we're gonna live. So, do it. Decide. Is this the life you want to live? Is this the person you want to love? Is this the best you can be? Can you be stronger? Kinder? More compassionate? Decide. Breathe in. Breathe out and decide.”
- “Richard”, “Grey’s Anatomy”

Dan, I Allegedly, "No One Has a Job"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 3/12/24
"No One Has a Job"
"It is unbelievable that nearly 107,000,000 people do not have a job right now. Combine that with the fact that you have the largest percentage of men between the ages of 18 and 29 that still live at home with their parents. What are we going to do?"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Durand, Michigan, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Bill Bonner, "Unfair Prices"

"Unfair Prices"
Team Biden attempts to reverse engineer 
prices discovery, from the top down...
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - Finally, Joe Biden is going to tackle inflation in the time-honored way of despots and crackpots everywhere. CNBC: "President Joe Biden will launch a new strike force jointly led by the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice, to tackle “unfair and illegal” corporate pricing, which he blames for consumers’ continued high costs of living." The FTC and DOJ have been among the central enforcers of Biden’s regulatory agenda over the past three years. In other words, price hikes don’t come from the Fed’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) nor from their stimmies, deficits and money-printing. High prices are the fault of evil, greedy corporations. And now, Team Biden is going to do something about it.

‘Uh…like what?’ you might want to know. Easy. It is going to pretend that it knows what a ‘fair’ price should be. And the saintly and all-knowing feds are going to impose their will on those SOBs in the private sector.

Wasting Our Time: Of course, the SOBs will always want to charge as much as they can get away with. What stops them is not the price posses of the federal government, but competition. You either compete on price or on quality, usually both. So corporate deciders are always looking for ways to cut prices…not raise them. That is how they hope to keep their customers. But no need to waste our time explaining these things to the Biden Bunch. If there is a lamb left unsheared in the Republic, they go after it…eager to get more wool to pull over voters’ eyes.

We asked yesterday, why does a good system degenerate into a bad one…why does government grow, becoming less democratic, more incompetent and more tyrannical? You might as well ask why doesn’t tomorrow turn into yesterday? Or wine turn back into grape juice? Why doesn’t the president just ‘walk across the street’ …and tell Congress: ‘Enough is enough. No more deficits. That’s it.’?

Outta Shape: You see an old man, bent, shuffling…you might say to him: ‘Just straighten up and walk normally.’ But he can’t do it. His muscles …his bones…his brain – all have taken a new shape. They can never again be what they were. And the US has aged…and matured, too, along with its deciders. Bent by time, now the voters elect Biden or Trump, not Jefferson or even Eisenhower. And Joe Biden is so practiced as skirting the truth, he can’t do anything else. Yes, greedy corporations cause price increases…of course they do. Yes, the firepower industry needs more money to protect our democracy, of course it does. And don’t even think about trimming Social Security, Medicare or other ‘entitlements.’ “Not on my watch,” said the president on X yesterday.

It’s a shame Biden doesn’t have an older, wiser brother. Before his State of the Union Speech last week, he might have talked some sense into him: “Joe. This is your last chance. Your career is almost over. You can go out as a washed-up hack. Or you can go out there and tell the voters something important. Stop carrying water for the special interests who want war and deficits. Stop this mumbly-fumbly double talk. The US can’t afford to keep spending money this way. If it doesn’t make a major course correction, it will soon be as washed up as you are. Tell the truth. Americans will be so shocked and delighted, you might win another 4 years. And even if you lose, you will be remembered, and honored – like Eisenhower – for saying what needed to be said. Go ahead. Give truth a chance.”

Nothing at All: And so, perhaps when the fateful hour arrived, his mind clear…his aim sure…Joe Biden might have given it to the public, straight. Unadorned by mendacity. Undiluted by wishful thinking. And unabridged by lies:

“My fellow Americans, I don’t have time for a lot of BS. So, here’s the story. If we keep spending money the way we’ve been spending it, we will go broke. Of course, there are a lot of people who don’t care about that. The money is headed their way. They’re building their mansions and stocking their bank accounts, at your expense. And the only way to stop it is just to draw a line. I can’t haggle over every line item. Besides, my job is not to protect the special interests…it’s to protect the general interest...the national interest. My job is to make sure we don’t spend too much. So, if I am elected to serve you for 4 more years – and yes, I know I don’t really deserve it – balanced budgets will be non-negotiable. No more deficits. No more money printing. You gentlemen and ladies in Congress…you decide what to spend money on…and send me a balanced budget. I’ll sign it. Otherwise, don’t bother to send me anything at all.”
Yeah... good luck!



"There Are Simply No Answers..."

“How is one to live a moral and compassionate existence when one is fully aware of the blood, the horror inherent in life, when one finds darkness not only in one’s culture but within oneself? If there is a stage at which an individual life becomes truly adult, it must be when one grasps the irony in its unfolding and accepts responsibility for a life lived in the midst of such paradox. One must live in the middle of contradiction, because if all contradiction were eliminated at once life would collapse. There are simply no answers to some of the great pressing questions. You continue to live them out, making your life a worthy expression of leaning into the light.”
- Barry Lopez

”The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse”

”The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse” 
by Dmitry Orlov

“Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth. Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence.

But so far, little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s evocative but unscientific-sounding “clusterf**k,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases. Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point.

Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

For instance, the collapse of the Soviet Union – our most recent and my personal favorite example of an imperial collapse – did not reach the point of political disintegration of the republics that made it up, although some of them (Georgia, Moldova) did lose some territory to separatist movements. And although most of the economy shut down for a time, many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout. And although there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse, because most of the population did not lose access to food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. The command-and-control structure of the Soviet economy largely decoupled the necessities of daily life from any element of market psychology, associating them instead with physical flows of energy and physical access to resources. Thus situation, as I argue in my forthcoming book, Reinventing Collapse, allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States.

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers – the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this – I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it.

Rather than tying each phase to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift. It is something of a cultural universal that nobody (but a real fool) wants to be the last fool to believe in a lie.

Stages of Collapse:

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, "The Mountain People"). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, "The Gulag Archipelago"). There may even be some cannibalism.

Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy – a conscious but inexorable march to perdition – rather than a farce (“Oops! Ah, here we are, Stage 5.” – “So, whom do we eat first?” – “Me! I am delicious!”) Let us sketch out this process.

Financial collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts. One is that a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development. The second part consists of men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, “f**ked up,” and so this is also just as it should be.

The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about “the wages of sin” and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: “You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, ‘f****d up,’ and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don’t do dishes.” This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse – the Second Great Depression.

However, this is unlikely, because in the US the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

About the only thing the government currently seems it fit to do is extend further credit to those in trouble, by setting interest rates at far below inflation, by accepting worthless bits of paper as collateral and by pumping money into insolvent financial institutions. This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example, repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population. It could promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defense forces to maintain law and order. The Army Corps of Engineers could be ordered to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced. In the interim, it could reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent. With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children’s futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. Thus, a much more likely scenario is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests. It will impose austerity conditions, maintain law and order through draconian means, and aid in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations. As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

If Stage 1 collapse can be observed by watching television, observing Stage 2 might require a hike or a bicycle ride to the nearest population center, while Stage 3 collapse is more than likely to be visible directly through one’s own living-room window, which may or may not still have glass in it. After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States – because “nobody goes there any more.” So as not to lose out on the entertainment value, the foreign press still prints sporadic fables about Americans who eat their young, much as they did about Russia following the Soviet collapse. A few brave American expatriates who still come back to visit bring back amazing stories of a different kind, but everyone considers them eccentric and perhaps a little bit crazy.

Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse the dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct federal, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Macchiavelian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity’s existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book “The Mountain People.” If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

While attempting to arrest collapse at Stage 1 and Stage 2 would probably be a dangerous waste of energy, it is probably worth everyone’s while to dig in their heels at Stage 3, definitely at Stage 4, and it is quite simply a matter of physical survival to avoid Stage 5. In certain localities – those with high population densities, as well as those that contain dangerous nuclear and industrial installations – avoiding Stage 3 collapse is rather important, to the point of inviting foreign troops and governments in to maintain order and avoid disasters. Other localities may be able to prosper indefinitely at Stage 3, and even the most impoverished environments may be able to support a sparse population subsisting indefinitely at Stage 4.

Although it is possible to prepare directly for surviving Stage 5, this seems like an altogether demoralizing thing to attempt. Preparing to survive Stages 3 and 4 may seem somewhat more reasonable, while explicitly aiming for Stage 3 may be reasonable if you plan to become one of the Big Men. Be that as it may, I must leave such preparations as an exercise for the reader. My hope is that these definitions of specific stages of collapse will enable a more specific and fruitful discussion than the one currently dominated by such vague and ultimately nonsensical terms as “the collapse of Western civilization.”
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by Joseph A. Tainter, here: