Tuesday, January 16, 2024

"An End to Progress"

"An End to Progress"
by Jeff Thomas

"'Progress may have been all right once, but it has gone on too long.' I’ve always been fond of that quote. Back when Ogden Nash wrote it, it was quite clever. Today, the quote is a bit less entertaining, as we are living in a period when, more and more, world leaders seem to be headed in the wrong direction – away from progress. As the Great Unravelling plays out, people are coming to the conclusion that the directions taken by their leaders are, in Doug Casey’s well-chosen words, not only the wrong thing to do, but the exact opposite of the right thing to do.

The first category in which this seems to be true is economics. Most world leaders are quite committed to the idea that Keynesian economics will provide all the answers to solve any economic problem. However, the further each country goes down the Keynesian road, the clearer it becomes that Keynesian theory simply does not work. In fact, many countries that have followed it are on the brink of economic collapse, yet they are charging forward all the more determinedly with solutions that are based upon the very theories that caused the problems.

The second category is economic legislation. In most First World countries, particularly the US, legislators are making it ever-more difficult for businesspeople to function, as a result of the passage of ever-more complex and stricter regulations. The free market is, at this point, far from free, and there is a substantial flow of business away from First World countries as a result. Contrary to the claims of many politicians, most businesspeople are not following this exodus out of greed, but out of a need for survival.

The third category is social legislation. First World countries, at one time, took pride in referring to themselves as "the Free World," in contrast to the communist and socialist Second World. Not so, today. Whilst many former Second World countries are beginning to open up, First World countries, generally speaking, are passing increasingly draconian legislation, converting once-free countries into virtual police states.

When the above trend began, few people took much notice, but, in recent years, the changes that have taken place are becoming, increasingly, both more numerous and more frequent. At present, the frequency and severity of governmental developments have begun to resemble a runaway train. As mentioned in the introductory paragraph, more and more people are becoming convinced as to the reality of all of the above – that we are reaching an "End of Progress." There does, however, seem to be a division in who they feel is responsible. Three theories follow.

The Evil Party
• The party I support makes mistakes, but they mean well.
• The alternate party is inherently evil and must be removed from power.
• The future depends upon whether our party takes control as a result of the next election.

People who see the control of their country in this light tend to live from election to election, each time hoping that their chosen party will take control of all branches of their government. On occasions when their party does succeed in doing so, they rarely seem to lose faith in this belief, even when their party fails to "right all the wrongs" as they promised they would if they gained complete control.

The Inept Legislators
• Both our primary political parties have become thoroughly corrupt.
• It no longer matters which party we vote for. They both act in opposition to our best interests.
• Legislators appear to be so inept that they truly don’t understand that they are bringing about the ruination of the country.
• All (or most) legislators have sold out to corporate interests, which have become their puppeteers.

The followers of this theory tend to believe that the situation will not improve substantially, no matter who is elected.

The Elite:
• A group exists, made up primarily of bankers, whose goal it is to one day rule the world.
• The Elites control the central banks of the First World, and, therefore, control the governments, as legislators need loans from the banks to pay for the ever-increasing cost of government. (Tax dollars, at this point, could not come close to covering that debt.)
• The Elites are not buffoons. They know exactly what they are doing, and they have a very clear long-term plan.
• The Elite plan is for a neo-serfdom; the elimination of the middle class, with the Elite as a very small, very wealthy class who will dominate nearly every facet of the lives of the proletariat.

A dominant perception of the identity of the Elite begins in 19th century Europe, with Mayer Rothschild, whose five sons are credited with developing a concerted plan for economic and political domination of the world. Their descendants are believed to have conquered America in the early 20th century, when they and others created the US Federal Reserve. Since that time, the power of the Elite has slowly increased both politically and economically, whilst the Elite themselves remain well in the background.

From the beginning, a Rothschild tenet was to avoid the limelight, whilst pulling the strings behind the screen. With each generation, this concept has been more apparent, and, today, the family names that have been associated with the seizure of control tend not to appear in the media. The names of Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan and the rest have either become less visible or more closely associated with philanthropy in the public awareness.

Theories differ as to whether the Elite plan a communist, socialist, fascist or other type of state, but they agree that the goal is a statist system, with a minimum of personal freedom for the proletariat.

There appears to be a bit of a divide between those who support each of the above theories. Each group appears to give a nod to the others, whilst firmly focusing on their own theory as being correct. This is interesting, as the three theories are by no means mutually exclusive. Certainly, the idea that the Elite are the puppeteers of the Inept Legislators is a good fit.

If the first theory is the accurate one, it would seem that the present pattern of decline would be due to a battle between good and evil, in which the socioeconomic structure is an unfortunate casualty of the battle itself. If the battle would only end (with the good guys as the winners), substantial progress would hopefully begin again.

If the second theory is the accurate one, a similar battle exists, but it is between two more-or-less equally-incompetent parties, neither of which seems to be able to sort things out. And again, the socioeconomic structure is an unfortunate casualty. (This theory promises less hope than the first.)

If the third theory is correct (whether or not it is coupled with the second theory), we have a very different reality. In the Elite theory, whilst there may be a battle between the political parties, it would matter little to the puppeteers as to which party is victorious. In fact, it would serve their interest if the battle were never-ending.

Just as in the latter days of the Roman Empire, the public, if they are to continue to be controlled, need a distraction – something to focus on rather than to focus on the real game. To an Elite, the political struggle is not so different from either the gladiators of the first century or the football matches of the twenty-first century. Both politics and sports are tried-and-true distractions from the otherwise central issue of the maximization of social and political rule.

Under the Elite theory, the almost-consistently negative developments that are occurring in First World countries would by no means be an unfortunate casualty; in fact, they would be occurring by design. For a New World Order to exist, based upon statist principles, with the vast majority of humanity as a class of serfs, an End of Progress is not only an acceptable by-product, it is a principle objective.

So, is this, then, merely an academic discussion, a curiosity for the brain to muse over? Not at all. Regardless of our own personal perception of what is causing the present condition, the objective for us all should be to be as open as possible to all interpretations, as the closer we understand the situation, the more likely we are to create an ability to step away from the fray and avoid becoming a casualty of it."

"Javier Milei: The Anti-Dictator"

"Javier Milei: The Anti-Dictator"
The pen is mightier than the chainsaw: 
a look at how Milei is dismantling Argentina's administrative state
by Joel Bowman

Note From the End of the World - “The omnipotence of the State is the denial of individual freedom.” ~ Juan Batista Alberdi, Argentine political philosopher

It is a rainy ol’ day down here at the End of the World. Yellow and black taxis splash through the puddles as they bound down the streets. Café-goers huddle around their espressos, fogging up the windows. The purple jacaranda trees drink deeply under the emptying skies.

Let’s review our position...Almost two months have passed since the beginning of what we’ve been calling the “Greatest Political Experiment of our Time.” That is, the election of a self-described “anarcho-capitalist” to the highest office in the land. It is the first time we know of where “the people” voluntarily decided to shrink the size of their own state... and to employ a man with a chainsaw to get the job done, no less.

The irony of an anarchist occupying the Casa Rosada (i.e. Pink House, Argentina’s equivalent of the White House), is lost neither on your editor nor on the current occupant. The term anarchist derives from the Greek αναρχία, romanized: anarkhia; where "αν" ("an") means "without" and "αρχία" ("arkhia") means "ruler". Without ruler, in other words... but not without rules. (Yes, real anarchists still use a net when playing tennis... they just don’t force people to participate.)

Cradles to Graves-  El Presidente, Javier Milei, calls himself a “philosophical anarchist”... but a pragmatic libertarian. That is to say, he seems to recognize the subtle truth in Henry David Thoreau’s statement at the outset of his must-read essay, "On the Duty of Civil Disobedience":

"I heartily accept the motto, - “That government is best which governs least;” and I should like to see it acted up to more rapidly and systematically. Carried out, it finally amounts to this, which also I believe, - “That government is best which governs not at all;” and when men are prepared for it, that will be the kind of government which they will have."

After 75 years of socialistic parasitism, the Argentine people are plenty aware how their public officials can fail... now, they must prepare for how private enterprise, entrepreneurship and voluntary cooperation might succeed. To that end, El Señor has introduced two key pieces of legislation designed to dismantle the vast administrative state, rotten limb by rotten limb. It’s worth spending a little time on these in order to understand the means by which this great political experiment is being undertaken.

One is a massive Omnibus Law, the so-called “Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines.” We’ll take a look at that in the next installment. The other comes in the form of a “mega deregulation decree” (known as the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia (DNU) or Decree of Necessity and Urgency). This Milei signed into law December 20. It came into effect 8 days thereafter, though there has been some subsequent squabbling in the courts.

(Interestingly enough, it was the Perónist leader, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner who, in 2006, changed the way executive decrees work in this country, handing more power to the executive branch and bypassing the requirement that decrees need to go through Congress before being implemented. That Milei is now leveraging Kirchner’s Law – 26.122 – to derogate power from the state is a sweet, sweet irony indeed.)

Limb by Rotten Limb: The mega decree essentially strips the administrative state of immense and overreaching powers to meddle in the country’s labor markets, leaving free people to determine with whom and under what conditions they choose to enter commercial relationships. The “30 points of deregulation of the economy” include (translated from original; not exhaustive):

• Repeal of the Supply Law so that the State never again attacks the property rights of individuals.
• Repeal of the Gondola Law so that the State stops interfering in the decisions of Argentine merchants.
• Repeal of the Rental Law: so that the real estate market works smoothly again and so that renting is not an odyssey.
• Repeal of the National Purchase Law that only benefits certain power players.
• Repeal of the Price Observatory of the Ministry of Economy to avoid the persecution of companies.
• Repeal of the regulations that prevent the privatization of public companies.
• Transformation of all state companies into public limited companies for subsequent privatization.
• Modernization of the labor regime to facilitate the process of generating genuine employment.
• Reform of the Customs Code to facilitate international trade.
• Repeal of the Land Law to promote investments
• Authorization for the transfer of the total or partial share package of Aerolíneas Argentinas.
• Deregulation of satellite internet services.
• Deregulation of the tourism sector by eliminating the monopoly of tourism agencies.

The Anti-Dictator: Also included were deregulation laws pertaining to the optional privatization of football clubs, ending price controls in the medical sector and (¡saludos!) liberating the domestic wine industry from government interference, among other derogations to state power.

Of course, sniveling insiders, special interests and those Milei refers to as the “political caste” are none-too-happy about having their rice bowls broken. The president is a “dictator,” they claim, ruling by decree. Aside from the fact that Sr. Milei is playing by the very rules the Perónists wrote for him, and aside from the fact that it is the Perónists who top the table of “most decrees issued” (which they used to accrue power unto themselves, not divest it), there remains another inconvenient fact for those who so freely conscript the “dictator” epithet...

Of all the myriad laws repealed under Sr. Milei’s deregulation decree, by far the most numerous belong to two presidencies – those of Juan Carlos Onganía (1966-1970) and Jorge R. Videla (1976-1981). (In total, 138 laws were repealed from those two presidencies, 82 and 56 respectively).
For his part, Juan Carlos Onganía rose to power as a military dictator after toppling the president Arturo Illia in a coup d'état. It was Onagía’s stated intention to install in Argentina a paternalistic dictatorship modeled on that of Spain’s Francisco Franco. Responsible for implementing strict censorship laws, his brand of government came to be known as the “authoritarian-bureaucratic state.”

Jorge R. Videla, meanwhile, was a military officer and dictator whose de facto presidency was one of the most infamous in Latin America, known for its human rights abuses and severe economic mismanagement.

That Sr. Milei would repeal laws and dictates enacted by such men says a lot about his own enmity towards state power and oppressive government...but it says even more about his detractors, who apparently yearn for the preservation of a militarily enforced authoritarian-bureaucratic state.

In Thursday’s Note, we’ll take a look at Milei’s comprehensive Omnibus Law (the “Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines”)... and the “Argentine Jefferson” behind its inspiration...Until then..."
o
Freely download "On the Duty of Civil Disobedience",
by Henry David Thoreau, here:

Adventures With Danno, "Grocery Prices Increase At Target! Save Money Where You Can!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 1/16/24
"Grocery Prices Increase At Target! 
Save Money Where You Can!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Target and are noticing some major price increases on groceries! We continue to see food prices skyrocket in grocery stores around the country, so we are seeking out the best options possible."
Comments here:

"Someday..."

"Someday stars will wind down or blow up. Someday death will cover us all like the water of a lake and perhaps nothing will ever come to the surface to show that we were ever there. But we WERE there, and during the time we lived, we were alive. That's the truth - what is, what was, what will be - not what could be, what should have been, what never can be."
- Orson Scott Card

"How It Really Is

Oh, it's not just the young. Look around,
everyone has their face jammed into a phone...
Several generations of idiots actually...

"The Long Dark"

"The Long Dark"
by Chris Floyd

"We are in the Long Dark now. Both hope and despair are the enemies of our survival. We must live in the awareness that we might not see the light come back, without ceasing to work - with empathy, anger and knowledge - for its return.

We must be here, in the moment, experiencing its fullness (whatever its horrors or joys), yet be elsewhere, removed from the madness pouring in from every side, the avalanche of degradation. We must be here, now, but also in a future we can’t see or even imagine.

We must see that we are lost, with no clear way forward, no sureties or verities to cling to, no roots to anchor us, no structures within or without that will always keep their coalescence in the chaotic, surging flow.

We must live in discrete moments of illumination and connection, pearls hung on an almost invisible string winding through the darkness. Striving, always striving, but not expecting; striving without hope, without despair, without any certainty at all as to the outcome, good or bad.

These are the conditions of the Long Dark, this is what we have to work with, this is where we find ourselves in the brief time we have in this vast, indifferent, astounding universe. As I once wrote long ago, quoting the old hymn: “Work, for the night is coming.”

So do we counsel fatalism, a dark, defeated surrender, a retreat into bitter, curdled quietude? Not a whit. We advocate action, positive action, unstinting action, doing the only thing that human beings can do, ever: Try this, try that, try something else again; discard those approaches that don't work, that wreak havoc, that breed death and cruelty; fight against everything that would draw us down again into our own mud; expect no quarter, no lasting comfort, no true security; offer no last word, no eternal truth, but just keep stumbling, falling, careening, backsliding, crawling toward the broken light.

And what is this "broken light"? Nothing more than a metaphor for the patches of understanding – awareness, attention, knowledge, connection – that break through our darkness and stupidity for a moment now and then. A light always fractured, under threat, shifting, found then lost again, always lost. For we are creatures steeped in imperfection, in breakage and mutation, tossed up – very briefly – from the boiling, chaotic crucible of Being, itself a ragged work in progress toward unknown ends, or rather, toward no particular end at all. Why should there be an "answer" in such a reality?

What matters is what works – what pulls us from our own darkness as far as possible, for as long as possible. Yet the truth remains that "what works" is always and forever only provisional – what works now, here, might not work there, then. What saves our soul today might make us sick tomorrow.

Thus all we can do is to keep looking, working, trying to clear a little more space for the light, to let it shine on our passions and our confusions, our anger and our hopes, informing and refining them, so that we can see each other better, for a moment – until death shutters all seeing forever."
ͦ
Full screen recommended.
Leonard Cohen, "Anthem"

"Life Has No Victims..."

“Life has no victims. There are no victims in this life. No one has the right to point fingers at his/her past and blame it for what he/she is today. We do not have the right to point our finger at someone else and blame that person for how we treat others, today. Don’t hide in the corner, pointing fingers at your past. Don’t sit under the table, talking about someone who has hurt you. Instead, stand up and face your past! Face your fears! Face your pain! And stomach it all! You may have to do so kicking and screaming and throwing fits and crying – but by all means – face it! This life makes no room for cowards.”
- C. Joybell C.

"Embracing Realism with an Attitude of Pessimism and a Foreboding Sense of Fatalism" (Excerpt)

"Embracing Realism with an Attitude of Pessimism 
and a Foreboding Sense of Fatalism"
by Doug “Uncola” Lynn

"We perceive our civic challenge as some vast, insoluble Rubik’s Cube. Behind each problem lies another problem that must be solved first, and behind that lies yet another, and another, ad infinitum. To fix crime we have to fix the family, but before we do that we have to fix welfare, and that means fixing our budget, and that means fixing our civic spirit, but we can’t do that without fixing moral standards, and that means fixing schools and churches, and that means fixing the inner cities, and that’s impossible unless we fix crime. There’s no fulcrum on which to rest a policy lever. People of all ages sense that something huge will have to sweep across America before the gloom can be lifted – but that’s an awareness we suppress. As a nation, we’re in deep denial."
– Straus and Howe (1997): “The Fourth Turning”, FIRST EDITION page 2

Excerpt: "The books “Generations” (1992) and “The Fourth Turning“ (1997) by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe identified and categorized recorded cycles of history across multiple cultures and eras. Both books analyzed the timelines of historical events and correlated them to specific life cycles identified as generational “types”. Strauss and Howe addressed the concept of time in the context of both circular and linear perspectives. In so doing, they described the “saeculum” as a “long human life” measuring approximately 80 to 90 years and comprised of four turnings, each lasting around 20 to 22 years.

Just as there are four seasons consisting of spring, summer, fall and winter, there are also four phases of a human life experienced in childhood, young adulthood, middle age and elderhood. Each generation experiences the historical turnings according to their life stage; and the Seasons (i.e. order of societal “turnings”) are identified by each generation as they reach middle-age. Amazingly, history shows a consistent pattern in how the generations similarly cause and affect historical events.

In America, since the end of the late sixteenth-century, there have been four full “cycles”, or saeculums, as follows:
1.) Colonial Cycle
2.) Revolutionary Cycle
3.) Civil War Cycle
4.) World War Cycle

In every Fourth Turning “winter”, or crisis period, within all of the above cycles, American society experienced great upheavals and war.

Accordingly, in 2024, as one who Strauss and Howe identified as a (Generation X) “Nomad”, I find myself middle-aged and in the center of a literal (seasonal) winter, at the beginning of a Fourth Turning (generational) winter, and at the advent of World War III occurring approximately 80 years after World War II. Lucky me.

History repeating and the daily repetitiveness of life calls to mind the Sisyphean task of continually rolling the same giant allegorical boulder up the same steep proverbial hill; over and over and over again.

But Sisyphus had it much easier in Hades. At least it was warm there. Had he lived in the northern climes as I do, Sisyphus would have had to remove the snow from the hill before he attempted to reach the summit with the rock. Then, once the snow was removed all the way to the top, he would have turned around only to see that high winds had drifted in the very path he had just shoveled; except the drifted snow would then be densely packed and made harder than concrete via double-digit wind-chills below zero degrees. Even so, the snowpack would need to be moved repeatedly before the rock received even one little push; then Sisyphus would do it again tomorrow and the next day too.

What’s the point? It is this: The cold winds of both seasonal and generational winters add dangerous risks and difficulty to daily Sisyphean tasks."
Full, highly recommended article here:
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.

"US Consumers Are Engaging In A Historic Debt Binge, And Delinquencies Are Ominously Rising..."

"US Consumers Are Engaging In A Historic Debt Binge,
And Delinquencies Are Ominously Rising..."
by Michael Snyder

"Americans are going into debt as if tomorrow will never come, but of course tomorrow always arrives eventually. What we are witnessing right now is truly a historic debt binge, and to many of the experts it seems like there is no end in sight to the unrestrained spending that is going on. But are U.S. consumers going into record levels of debt because they are feeling good about things or because they are trying to survive in an increasingly harsh economic environment? In America today, the cost of living has become exceedingly oppressive, employers are laying off large numbers of workers, and poverty and homelessness have been absolutely exploding all over the country. Millions of U.S. households are just barely hanging on by their fingernails, and many desperate consumers have been piling up debt in a frantic attempt to stave off the inevitable.

According to new data that was just released by the Federal Reserve, consumer borrowing increased much faster than expected during the month of December…"US consumers did not rein in their spending this past holiday season, and now have near-record-breaking debt balances to show for it, according to new Federal Reserve data released Monday.

Consumer borrowing spiked by $23.75 billion in November, more than doubling economists’ expectations for a $9 billion increase and sending outstanding credit balances north of the $5 trillion mark for the first time on record, the Fed’s latest Consumer Credit report showed. The monthly increase during the critical holiday shopping month was driven by higher rates of revolving credit (which includes mostly credit cards), which soared by nearly $19.5 billion - the third-highest monthly increase on records that go back to 1943."

For quite a while, U.S. consumers were able to handle rapidly rising debt levels, but now it appears that we are reaching a breaking point. In fact, we are being told that “delinquencies are at their highest level since 2012”…"However, the sharp increase in credit balances is starting to be a cause for concern, Ted Rossman, Bankrate senior industry analyst, told CNN via email. “Credit card usage and Buy Now, Pay Later usage seemingly surged during the holidays, on top of already hefty debt loads,” Rossman said. Now, delinquencies are at their highest level since 2012."

In 2012, we were just coming out of the Great Recession. Those were very painful days. And actually the average credit card interest rate is even higher than anything that we witnessed back then…The average credit card rate is now more than 20%, on average - an all-time high - after rising at the steepest annual pace ever, in step with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle. “Most cardholders’ rates have risen five-and-a-quarter percentage points during that span as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes meant to combat inflation,” Rossman said. “It’s no wonder, then, that we’re seeing more people carrying more debt for longer periods of time.”

Piling up credit card debt can be fun, but high interest rates will absolutely suffocate you financially for many years to come. Unfortunately, one recent survey discovered that 56 million cardholders in the United States have been carrying balances “for at least a year”…"Nearly half, or 49%, of credit card holders carry debt from month to month on at least one card, up from 46% last year, the report found, and 56 million cardholders have been in debt for at least a year."

Avoid credit card debt if you can, because it is literally financial poison. Of course many Americans have no choice. More than 60 percent of the nation is living paycheck to paycheck, and just trying to pay the bills from month to month is really a struggle for millions upon millions of Americans. Our leaders insist that they have inflation under control, but we can all see that is not the case.

This week, a restaurant owner that charges 16 dollars for a BLT sandwich made headlines all over the nation, but because of rapidly rising costs he only makes 2 dollars on each sandwich…"A restaurant owner has explained how raging inflation means he has to charge $16 for a BLT sandwich – yet makes under $2 on each. Brian Will, boss and founder of Central City Tavern sports bar chain, decided to speak out after a pal confronted him over his sandwich prices. The ingredients – bacon, lettuce, tomato, mayo and bread – cost $5, up more than a dollar since three years ago."

I still remember the days when a trip to the grocery store would cost me about 20 bucks. Now 20 bucks will buy one sandwich. Ouch.

Sadly, the economic outlook for the year ahead is not promising at all. According to Business Insider, economist Cam Harvey is very confident that a recession is coming in 2024…"Cam Harvey, the economist who discovered the Treasury yield curve’s ability to forecast recessions, is reiterating his call that a downturn is likely ahead in 2024. Harvey’s model says that when yields on 3-month Treasury bills stay higher than those on 10-year notes for at least three months - triggering an official inversion - a recession will follow. The indicator has preceded each of the last eight recessions and has not produced any false positives. Yields on the two government bond durations have been officially inverted for 12 months now."

I can’t argue with his analysis. But what we are facing in the long-term is not just another economic downturn. Ultimately, what we are facing in the long-term is a “perfect storm” that will result in a complete meltdown of our entire system. The tremendous economic turmoil that we have been experiencing during the Biden administration is just the beginning. All of the long-term trends are pointing in one direction, and the consequences of decades of very foolish decisions are starting to catch up with us very rapidly."

Monday, January 15, 2024

"World War III Update, 1/14/24"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper,1/14/24
"Alert! Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles, US Ship Hit! 
NATO Plans Nuclear Decapitation Strike?!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 1/14/24
"US Cargo Ship Was Hit By A Houthis Missile; 
Iran Launched Airstrike On US Ally In Iraq"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
by USMC 1/14/24
"Instant Reaction From Iran! Houthis Cruise 
Missile Sinks US Aircraft Carrier Near Yemen"
NOT Real footages, just Arma 3 gameplay, but very accurately descriptive.
Comments here:

Jeremiah Babe, "People Are Giving Up On The American Dream, The Middle Class Nightmare"

Jeremiah Babe, 1/14/24
"People Are Giving Up On The American Dream, 
The Middle Class Nightmare"
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "This Keeps Getting Worse!"

Adventures With Danno, PM 1/14/24
"This Keeps Getting Worse!"
"This keeps getting worse as we are seeing another massive surge in prices on groceries all around the country and around the world! This is not good as we continue to see many families struggling to put food on the table. "
Comments here:

"Israel - Palestine War Update, 1/14/24"

Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 1/14/24
"Israel Is Fighting A Stupidly Large Scale 
Ground Combat With Modern Warfare Master Hamas"
Comments here:
o
Col. Douglas Macgregor, 1/14/24
"Will Happen Next For Israel!"
Comments here:
o
Must View!
Full screen recommended.
Double Down News, 1/14/24
"Israel Is GUILTY of Genocide: 
Jewish Former South Africa MP Destroys Israel At ICJ"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: "Beautiful Relaxing Music - Calming Piano & Guitar Music"

Full screen recommended.
Soothing Relaxation,
"Beautiful Relaxing Music - Calming Piano & Guitar Music"
"Beautiful relaxing music by Soothing Relaxation. Enjoy calming piano and
 guitar music composed by Peder B. Helland, set to stunning nature videos."

"A Look to the Heavens"

“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the below gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope. 
The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”

Chet Raymo, “Take My Arm”

“Take My Arm”
by Chet Raymo

“I’m sure I have referenced here before the poems of Grace Schulman, she who inhabits that sweet melancholy place between “the necessity and impossibility of belief.” Between, too, the necessity and impossibility of love.

Belief and love. They have so much in common, yet are as distinct as self and other. How strange that two people can hitch their lives together, on a whim, say, or wild intuition, knowing little if nothing about the other’s hiddenness, about things that even the other does not fully understand and couldn’t articulate even if he did. Blind, deaf, dumb, they leap into the future, hoping to fly, and, for a moment, soaring, like Icarus, sunward. The necessity of wax. The impossibility of wax. We “fall” in love, they say. Schulman: “We slog. We tramp the road of possibility. Give me your arm.”

Free Download: "The Essential Rumi"

"All day I think about it, then at night I say it. Where did I come from, and what am I supposed to be doing? I have no idea. My soul is from elsewhere, I'm sure of that, and I intend to end up there. Who looks out with my eyes? What is the soul? I cannot stop asking. If I could taste one sip of an answer, I could break out of this prison for drunks. I didn't come here of my own accord, and I can't leave that way. Whoever brought me here, will have to take me home."
- Rumi, "The Tavern," Ch. 1:, p. 2, from "The Essential Rumi"

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"15 Common Dynamics Of SHTF Collapses"

"15 Common Dynamics Of SHTF Collapses"
by Fabian Ommar

"When it comes to how we see and prepare for SHTF, thinking in terms of real and probable rather than fictional and possible can make a big difference. Even though SHTF has many forms and levels and is in essence complex, random, diverse and unsystematic, some patterns and principles are common to the way things unfold when it hits the fan. With Toby and Selco’s "Seven Pillars of Urban Preparedness" as inspiration, I came up with a different list of the 15 dynamics and realities of collapses.

#1 SHTF is nuanced and happens in stages: Thinking about SHTF as an ON/OFF, all-or-nothing endgame is a common mistake that can lead to severe misjudgments and failures in critical areas of preparedness. Part (or parts) of the system crash, freeze, fail, or become impaired. This is how SHTF happens in the real world. And when it does, people run for safety first, i.e., resort to more familiar behaviors, expecting things to “go back to normal soon.”

By “normal behaviors,” I mean everything from hoarding stuff (toilet paper?) to rioting, looting, and crime, and yes, using cash – as these happen all the time, even when things are normal. But no one becomes a barterer, a peddler, a precious metals specialist in a week. Society adapts as time passes (and the situation requires). That’s why preppers who are also SHTF survivors (and thus talk from personal experience) insist that abandoning fantasies and caring for basics first is crucial. This is not a coincidence. It is how things happen in the real world.

Recently I wrote about black markets and the role of cash in SHTFs, emphasizing these things take precedence except in a full-blown apocalypse – which no one can say if, when, or how will happen (because it never has?). Now, I don’t pretend to be the owner of the truth, but those insisting changes in society happen radically or abruptly should check this article about the fallout in Myanmar.

#2 Everything crawls until everything runs: Number two is a corollary to #1. SHTF happens in stair-steps, but most people failing to prepare and getting caught off-guard is evidence of the difficulty of the human brain to fully grasp the concept of exponential growth. It bears telling the analogy of the stadium being filled with water drops to illustrate this.

Let’s say we add one drop into a watertight baseball stadium. The deposited volume doubles every minute (i.e., one minute later, we add two more drops, then four in the next minute, eight in the next, then sixteen, and so on). How long would it take to fill the entire stadium? Sitting at the top row, we’d watch for 45 minutes as the water covered the field. Then at the 48-minute mark, 50% of the stadium would be filled. Yes, that’s only 3 minutes from practically empty to half full. At this point, we have just 60 seconds to get out: the water will be spilling before the clock hits 49 minutes.

This is an important dynamic to understand and keep in mind because it applies to most things. Another example: it took over 2 million years of human prehistory and history for the world’s population to reach 1 billion, and less than 250 years more to grow to almost 8 billion.

#3 The system doesn’t vanish or change suddenly: Based on history, the Mad Max-like scenario some so feverishly advocate is not in our near future. The Roman Empire unraveled over 500 years. We may not be at the tipping point of our collapse or the last minute of the flooding stadium, as illustrated in #2 above. But time is relative, and those 60 seconds can last five, ten, fifteen years. Things are accelerating, but there’s no way to tell at which point in the curve we are.

That doesn’t mean things will be normal in that period. A lot has happened to people and places all over the Roman empire during those five-plus centuries: wars, plagues, invasions, droughts, shortages, all hell broke loose. Our civilization has already hit the iceberg, and the current order is crumbling. There will be shocks along the way, some small and some big. But SHTF is a process, not an event.

#4 History repeats, but always with a twist: That’s because nature works in cycles, and humans react to scarcity and abundance predictably and in the same ways. Also, we’re helpless in the face of the most significant and recurring events. But things are never the same. Technology improves, social rules change, humankind advances, the population grows. This (and lots more) adds a variability factor to the magnitude, gravity, and reach of outcomes.

What better proof than the COVID-19 pandemic just surpassing the 1918 Spanish Flu death toll in the US? It’ll probably do so everywhere else, too. Even if we don’t believe the official data (then or now), we’re not yet out of this new coronavirus situation.

#5 SHTF is about scarcity: A shrink in resources invariably leads to changes in the individual’s standard of living or entire society (depending on the circumstances, depth, and reach of the disaster or collapse). Then it starts affecting life itself (i.e., people dying). Essentially, when things really hit the fan, abundance vanishes, and pretty much everything reverts to the mean: food becomes replenishment, drinking becomes hydration, sleeping becomes rest, home becomes shelter, and so on. Surviving is accepting and adapting to that.

#6 The consequences matter more than the type of event: I’ll admit to being guilty of debating probable causes of SHTF more often than I should, mainly when it comes to the economy and finance going bust. That’s from living in a third-world country, with all the crap that comes with it. It’s what I have to talk, warn, and give advice about. I still find it essential to be aware and thoughtful of the causes. But it’s for the consequences that we must prepare for: instability, corruption, bureaucracy, criminality, inflation, social unrest, divisiveness, wars, and all sorts of conflicts and disruptions that affect us directly.

#7 Life goes on: Humankind advances through hardship but thrives in routine. We crave normalcy and peace, and over the long term, pursue them. Contrary to what many think, life goes on even during SHTF. And things tend to return to normal after the immediate threats cease or get contained. At least some level of normal, considering the circumstances. For example, in occupied France, the bistros and cafés continued serving and entertaining the population and even the invaders (the Nazi army). It was hard, as is always the case anywhere there’s war, poverty, tyranny – but that doesn’t mean the world has ended.

#8 SHTF pileup: Disasters and collapses add instability, volatility, and fragility to the system, which can compound and cause further disruptions. Sometimes, unfavorable cycles on various fronts (nature and civilization) can also converge and generate a perfect storm. It’s crucial to consider that and try to prepare as best we can for multiple disasters happening at once or in sequence, on various levels, collective and individual – even if psychologically and mentally. And if the signs are any indication, we’re entering such a period of simultaneous challenges.

#9 Snowball effect: Daisy based her excellent article on the 10 most likely ways to die when SHTF on the principle of large-scale die-off caused by a major disaster, like an EMP or other. This theory is controversial and the object of endless discussions. Some say it’s an exaggeration. But in my opinion, that’s leaving a critical factor out of the equation.

Consider the following: according to WPR and the CDC, before COVID-19, the mortality rate in the US was well below 1% (2.850.000 per year, or about 8.100 per day). If the mortality rate increases to just 5%, this alone would spark other SHTFs, potentially more serious and harmful than the first. That five-fold jump in mortality would result in more than 16 million dead per year or 44.000 per day. That’s 5% we’re talking about, not 20 or 30. If there’s even a protocol to deal with something like that, I’m not aware. It would be catastrophic on many levels over a shorter period (say, a few months).

Early in the CV19 pandemic, some cities had trouble burying the dead, and the death rate was still below 1%. Sure, other factors were playing. But the point is, things can snowball: consequences and implications are too complex and potentially far-reaching. Think about the effects on the system.

#10 SHTF is a situation, but it’s also a place: Things are hitting the fan somewhere right now. Not in the overblowing media but the physical world: the Texas border, third-world prisons, gang-ruled Haiti, in Taliban-raided Afghanistan, in the crackhouse just a few blocks from an affluent neighborhood, under the bridges of many big cities worldwide, in volcano-hit islands. There are thousands of places where people are bugging out, suffering, or dying of all causes at this very moment. If you’re not in any SHTF, consider yourself lucky. Be grateful, too: being able to prepare is a luxury.

#11 Choosing one way or another has a price: Being unprepared and wrong has a price. However, so does being prepared and wrong. Though some benefits exist regardless of what happens, the investment in terms of time, finance, and emotion to be prepared could be applied elsewhere or used for other finalities (career, a business, relationships, etc.) rather than some far-out collapse.

Since so much in SHTF is unknown and open, and resources are limited even when things are normal, survival and preparedness are essentially trade-offs. We must read the signals, weigh the options, consider the probabilities, make an option, and face the consequences. That’s why striving for balance is so important.

#12 SHTF is dirty, smelly, ugly: This is undoubtedly one of the most striking characteristics of SHTF: how bad some places and situations can be. Most people have no idea, and they don’t want to know about this. Those who fantasize about being in SHTF should think twice. Abject misery and despair have a distinct smell of excrement, sewage, death, rotting material, pollution, trash, burned stuff, and all kinds of dirt imaginable. And insects. The movies don’t show these things. But bad smells and insects infest everything and everywhere, and it can be maddening.

During my street survival training, I get to visit some really awful places and witness horrible things. The folks eventually going out with me invariably get shocked, sometimes even sickened, when they see decadence up and close for the first time. Even ones used to dealing with the nasties – it’s hard not to get affected.

For instance, drug consumption hotspots are so smelly and nasty that someone really must have to be on crack just to stand being there. It’s hell on earth, and I can’t think of another way to describe these and other places like third-world prisons, trash deposits, and many others. Early on, being in these places would make me question why I do this. It never becomes “normal.” We just adapt. But seeing these realities changes our life and the way we see things.

#13 The Grid is fragile: It’s baffling how this escapes so many. Most people I know are in constant marvel with modern civilization. They look around, pointing and saying, “Are you crazy? Too big to fail! There’s no way this can go away! Nothing has ever happened!“.

We have someone to take our trash, slaughter, process our food, treat our sick, purify our water, treat our sewage, protect us from wrongdoers and evil people (and keep them locked), control the traffic, and defend our rights. Peeking behind the curtains is a red pill moment. What keeps The Grid up and running is not something small, but it’s fragile. The natural state of things is not an insipid, artificially controlled environment. On the positive side, it makes us feel more grateful, humble, and also more responsible.

#14 The frog in the boiling water: That’s you and me and everyone around us. There’s no other way around it. We’re the suckers who get squeezed and pay the bill whenever something happens, anywhere and everywhere. It’s always our freedom, rights, money, and privacy that gets attacked, threatened, stolen.

Not only because the 1% screws us at the top, but because we’re the big numbers, the masses. And only those who work and produce something can bear the brunt of whatever bad happens to society and civilization. Make no mistake: whenever the brown stuff hits the fan, it will fall on us. It’s no reason to revolt but to acknowledge that, ultimately, we’re responsible for ourselves.


Conclusion: Sometimes, the mechanics, brutality, and harshness of SHTF end up in the background of personal narratives and emotional accounts. Being more knowledgeable and cognizant of some general aspects of collapses may allow flexibility, creativity, improvisation, adaptation, resiliency, and other broad and effective strategies. Or, simply provide material for reflection and debate, really.

Either way, even those who haven’t been through collapse can still learn from history, from others’ experiences, from human behavior, from the facts. Just be sure to see the world for what it is and not from what you think. Because it will go its own way, and reality will assert itself all the same. 

What are your thoughts about the dynamics of an SHTF scenario? Are there any you want to add? Does this match up with your personal expectations? Let’s discuss it in the comments."

"Teach Them..."

"Teach them a spider does not spin a web. Spiders spin meaning. 
Cut one strand and the web holds. Cut many, the web falls. 
With the web's fall, so too falls the spider. 
Break the web. Break the spider. So breaks the circle of life."
- Frederic M. Perrin

"Are There Any Questions?"

"Are There Any Questions?"
by Robert Fulghum

"Are there any questions?" An offer that comes at the end of college lectures and long meetings. Said when an audience is not only overdosed with information, but when there is no time left anyhow. At times like that you sure do have questions. Like, "Can we leave now?" and "What the hell was this meeting for?" and "Where can I get a drink?"

The gesture is supposed to indicate openness on the part of the speaker, I suppose, but if in fact you do ask a question, both the speaker and the audience will give you drop-dead looks. And some fool - some earnest idiot - always asks. And the speaker always answers. By repeating most of what he has already said. But if there is a little time left and there is a little silence left in response to the invitation, I usually ask the most important question of all: "What is the Meaning of Life?" You never know, somebody may have the answer, and I'd really hate to miss it because I was too socially inhibited to ask. But when I ask, it is usually taken as a kind of absurdist move - people laugh and nod and gather up their stuff and the meeting is dismissed on that ridiculous note. Once, and only once, I asked that question and got a serious answer…

Papaderos rose from his chair at the back of the room and walked to the front, where he stood in the bright Greek sunlight of an open window and looked out… he turned. And made the ritual gesture: "Are there any questions?" Quiet quilted the room. These two weeks had generated enough questions for a lifetime, but for now there was only silence.

"No questions?" Papaderos swept the room with his eyes.
So. I asked.
"Dr. Papaderos, what is the meaning of life?"

The usual laughter followed, and people stirred to go. Papaderos held up his hand and stilled the room and looked at me for a long time, asking with his eyes if I was serious and seeing from my eyes that I was.

"I will answer your question."

Taking his wallet out of his hip pocket, he fished into a leather billfold and brought out a very small round mirror, about the size of a quarter. And what he said went like this: "When I was a small child, during the war, we were very poor and we lived in a remote village. One day, on the road, I found the broken pieces of a mirror. A German motorcycle had been wrecked in that place. I tried to find all the pieces and put them together, but it was not possible, so I kept only the largest piece. This one. And by scratching it on a stone I made it round. I began to play with it as a toy and became fascinated by the fact that I could reflect light into dark places where the sun would never shine - in deep holes and crevices and dark closets. It became a game for me to get light into the most inaccessible places I could find.

I kept the little mirror, and as I went about my growing up, I would take it out in idle moments and continue the challenge of the game. As I became a man, I grew to understand that this was not just a child's game but a metaphor for what I might do with my life. I came to understand that I am not the light or the source of light. But light - truth, understanding, knowledge - is there, and it will only shine in many dark places if I reflect it. I am a fragment of a mirror whose design and shape I do not know. Nevertheless, with what I have I can reflect light into the dark places of this world - into the black places in the hearts of men - and change some things in some people. Perhaps others may see and do likewise. This is what I am about. This is the meaning of my life."

And then he took his small mirror and, holding it carefully, caught the bright rays of daylight streaming through the window and reflected them onto my face and onto my hands folded on the desk."
- Robert Fulghum, 
"It Was On Fire When I Lay Down On It"

The Daily "Near You?"

Irwin, Pennsylvania, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Stephen Levine, "Half Life"

"Half Life"

 "We walk through half our life
as if it were a fever dream,
barely touching the ground,
our eyes half open,
our heart half closed.
Not half knowing who we are,
we watch the ghost of us drift
from room to room,
through friends and lovers
never quite as real as advertised.
Not saying half we mean
or meaning half we say,
we dream ourselves
from birth to birth
seeking some true self.
Until the fever breaks
and the heart can not abide
a moment longer
as the rest of us awakens,
summoned from the dream,
not half caring for anything but love."

~ Stephen Levine