Tuesday, October 31, 2023

"The End of 'Luxurious Languor'”

"The End of 'Luxurious Languor'”
by Brian Maher

“'Luxurious languor'…We hazard the epoch of luxurious languor - 18th-century philosopher David Hume’s delicious expression - is closing. It acquired its existence through the post-2008 imposition of artificially reduced interest rates. Rates at or near zero reigned for an entire decade and longer. Credit was essentially… costless.

The United States economy got accustomed to it - even dependent on it. Projects that would prove juiceless at higher rates of interest may yield juice at zero rates of interest. And so they were undertaken at zero rates of interest. This unnatural epoch fattened a particular group of the languorously luxuriant…

Nothing Changes but the Date: In 1752 the abovesaid Hume authored an essay, “Of Public Credit” by title. From which: "In this unnatural state of society, the only persons, who possess any revenue beyond the immediate effects of their industry, are the stock-holders, who draw almost all the rent of the land and houses, besides the produce of all the customs and excises.

These are men, who have no connexions with the state, who can enjoy their revenue in any part of the globe in which they chuse to reside, who will naturally bury themselves in the capital or in great cities, and who will sink into the lethargy of a stupid and pampered luxury… Adieu to all ideas of nobility, gentry and family."

Switch 1752 for 2012 or 2022. Are they not the same? Yet the reign of zero rates is ended. The reign of luxurious languor will likely end with it. Not today perhaps. Perhaps not even tomorrow or the tomorrow after that. Yet end it will.

This week yields on the bellwether 10-year Treasury note scaled 5%. They have since receded some… as the daily and tides recede routinely from their heights. Yet in the natural cycle the tide reacquires its height. As with nature, so with markets. We believe yields will once again attain the 5% tidal mark. They will likely exceed it. And the sand structures erected in low tide - under luxurious languor - will go washing away under high tide. We shall label this phase “non-luxurious rigor.”

Time and Tide Claim All Ultimately: These structures remain largely intact. Yet the tides run to lagging cycles. And expiring debt - acquired at the low tide of zero rates - must be refinanced under higher tide. At this point sandy foundations begin to give way… and luxury is not nearly so langourous. It is perilous. It is non-luxurious rigor.

Mr. Dan Amoss is Jim Rickards’ senior market analyst. He is an authentic market crackerjack with a skull ear to ear and chin to crown with knowledge. From whom: "Corporate debt is about $40 trillion. The longer yields stay at 5% or higher, the more corporations will have to refinance at that rate. It’s going to have a depressing effect on the economy. There’s a huge difference between an economy that has a zero cost of capital, and one that has a 5% cost of capital. It changes everything."

It puts a period to the languorously luxurious epoch. That is what it does. The business reduces ultimately to fundamental mathematics - and its iron laws.

There’s a Limit: Take a 200-pound man. Place 100 pounds upon his back. If he is a somewhat stout and hearty fellow, this burden he can withstand. It is merely half his weight. Now place 200 pounds upon his back - his own bodyweight. He may quake some. He may perspire some. Yet if he is a man of normal construction, if his muscles have not atrophied under languorously luxuriant living, he can absorb the load. He can even stagger ahead some. Not much perhaps - yet some.

Now load an additional 50 pounds upon his back. You have exceeded his capacity. The additional 25% of his weight proves too much. He can retain the vertical, the burden will not buckle him or bring him heaping down. Yet he is unable to advance. He can merely stand where he is.

Now you understand the economy of the United States. Ample evidence indicates that an economy can withstand a 90% debt-to GDP ratio. Once that ratio exceeds 90% the economy proceeds to strain and stagger. The United States debt-to-GDP ratio runs presently to 125%, roughly. It is the normal 200-pound man with 250 pounds upon its back. It can stand, it is true. Yet it cannot walk. It is overloaded.

“More Is Not More”: Mr. Matthew Piepenburg is a money man at Matterhorn Asset Management. Here he cites the abovesaid Hume: "The folks at the big banks… who never bothered to study economics (or frankly basic history) forgot to tell voters and investors that beneath the last [14-plus] years of “luxury” and “recovery” lies a market secret (and economic virus) of which Hume warned in 1752…

Specifically, Hume said this of debt: “More is not more.” That is, more debt does not create long-term growth; in fact, it mathematically destroys it. To confirm this market secret, one only needs to look at the history of what happens when government debt exceeds 50% of its income, or GDP. Once that ratio hits 50% of GDP, this is bad. And when that ratio hits 90%, the economy loses one-third of its growth rate.
"
No exceptions exist, says this Piepenburg fellow. That is because the dilemma reduces to mathematical equation. It is science: "This is not just true some of the time. It’s true all of the time, because economics, when understood, is not an art; it’s a science. Debt, when overextended, always kills growth. As of today, U.S. government debt to GDP, at [124%], is well past the point of no return."

We fear he is correct. Again, the mathematics is the mathematics and the science is the science. We refer not to “the science” of Dr. Fauci - but to the demonstrable science - to the authentic science. And the science says a 124% debt-to-GDP ratio is economically lethal.

Nixon Started It: When did the United States begin to flout the mathematical laws? When did its debt addiction and ultimate descent into languorous luxury commence? In 1971 says Mr. Piepenburg: "[It all] went downhill when Nixon famously declared, “I guess we’re all Keynesians now,” meaning we all ignored the market secret and became enamored by (addicted to) debt."

Why? Because debt is fun. It buys a lot of shopping sprees and “luxurious languor,” from Wall Street to Main Street to Pennsylvania Avenue.  But Hume’s market secret reminds us that any nation that doesn’t produce and earn as much as it spends is heading mathematically for a real moment of “uh-oh.”

Let us then conclude with Mr. Hume himself: "Either the nation must destroy public credit, or public credit will destroy the nation. It is impossible that they can both subsist… The entire economic and financial apparatus is constructed upon public credit. The nation will not destroy it - not voluntarily that is. Thus option one goes emptying into the hellbox. Only one option remains. And that is option two…"

"How It Really Is"

 

"We're so freakin' doomed!" - The Mogambo Guru

"March 9, 2022... Will Live In Infamy"

"March 9, 2022... Will Live In Infamy"
By Jim Rickards

"Where were you on March 9, 2022, when President Biden signed the death warrant on American freedom? On that day, in a hushed ceremony at the White House without the approval of Congress, the states or the American people, Biden signed into law Executive Order 14067. Buried in his order are a few paragraphs, titled Section 4. The language in Section 4 makes Order 14067 the most treacherous act by a sitting president in the history of our republic. That’s because Section 4 sets the stage for legal government surveillance of all U.S. citizens, total control over your bank accounts and purchases and the ability to silence all dissenting voices for good.

In this new war on freedom, they aren’t coming for your guns. No, they’re thinking much bigger than that. They’re coming for your money. And it’s already started. These efforts are stepping up and taking on a nefarious tone that also involves surveillance and loss of our freedoms under the guise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), or Biden Bucks as I call them.

If you had asked me about this two years ago, I would have said the U.S. is taking a rather studious approach to it. It was too important to not be involved in, but the U.S. did not seem to be in any hurry to actually implement it.

There were studies, and I would have said my estimate at the time would have been, “OK, China has it. Europe, maybe another year. The U.S. might be three or four years down the road because the dollar’s too important. They don’t want to race into it. They want to get it right. There are a lot of ways to mess it up.”

But that’s changed under Joe Biden. Biden has now fast-tracked this thing. We’ve moved pretty quickly from what I would call a research phase to an implementation phase. So I give it the name Biden Bucks, because Joe Biden will prove to have been responsible for actually implementing this at a very quick tempo in the United States.

NOT Cryptocurrencies: CBDCs are digital money, not cryptocurrencies. The differences between CBDCs and crypto are important. Cryptocurrencies are recorded on a blockchain, which is a particular type of ledger that shows every transaction ever made in each currency. Cryptos also claim to offer anonymity and decentralization, which are said to be virtues but are actually fatal flaws because the “anonymity” is a greater cover for crime and fraud. I worked with the U.S. Strategic Command to unravel crypto ownership when Isis was using digital tokens to finance its caliphate in 2015–2016. It’s not easy to pierce the veil, but it can be done.

By contrast, CBDCs do not use blockchain; they have a digital ledger accounting system, but it’s not a blockchain. They’re the opposite of decentralized; they are highly centralized under the control of a single issuer, usually a central bank. There’s no anonymity. The issuer knows every account holder and every transaction - that’s the whole idea.

CBDCs are promoted on the idea that transactions are faster, cheaper and more secure when all money is digital and controlled by a government. Compared with credit cards, debit cards, wire transfers, Venmo and PayPal, that may be true. Those systems have multiple intermediaries and layers of fees, so CBDCs may actually be able to streamline payments and make the payment system more efficient.

But while the government positions CBDCs as a benefit to consumers in performing transactions, including faster settlements, better security, ease of use and transaction costs that are lower than with cash, it’s also crucial to think through the implications of the technology and how it could negatively affect the economy and our individual rights.

The Death of Privacy: The first part of the hidden agenda is to eliminate cash. If you’re the government and you want the central bank digital currency to succeed, you have to eliminate cash because it’s your competition. Cash is anonymous. If you pay for something with cash, the purchase can’t be directly tied to you. That’s not true of Biden Bucks. The government knows exactly what you’re buying, to whom you’re making donations and (by extension) what you’re reading based on which books you buy, etc.

That means we’ve come very far down the road toward thought control, censorship and selective law enforcement against political enemies. It’s a government that looks like the state ruled by Big Brother in George Orwell’s "Nineteen Eighty-Four."

The government might want to freeze your account, they might want to seize your assets, they might want to put an expiration date on your money. Imagine you get paid and the government says, “OK, you got the money. Nice job, but that money is going to evaporate or disappear if you don’t spend it in the next six months.” How’s that for a stimulus program?

None of these things is possible if there’s cash around. But if you get rid of cash and force everyone into a digital system, then you can do these kinds of things. That means fiscal policy can actually be dictated by Biden Bucks. With total control of your money, the government can conduct fiscal policy at will.

What if the government wanted to stimulate the economy and increase the amount of consumer spending? They could simply send you a letter that states, for example, “You must spend $200 in the next 30 days or we will take $100 out of your account as a penalty.” As most citizens will not want to risk losing $100, they will spend the amount requested and create stimulus in the economy as the government had wanted.

This could also work in the opposite direction. Say the government wanted to cool down the economy and not have as much money in circulation. They could encourage savings by requesting a certain balance in your account be kept and not spent. If you went under that set balance, a penalty would be triggered.

Private Banks Are Pushing CBDCs: All that being said, the digital takeover of the financial system is not an all-or-nothing event, and it will happen in stages and not all at once. When the CBDCs are finally rolled out, it may be a bit of an anticlimax if private companies have already eliminated cash and invaded privacy on their own.

For example, the Italian bank Intesa SanPaolo has begun forcing customers to use an all-digital mobile phone service with no ability for customers to visit a branch or interact with a human bank official. This is exactly what the world of CBDCs will be like except that a private bank will be doing the dirty work and not waiting for a government mandate. The CBDC effort in Europe will inevitably involve the European Central Bank (ECB) since they are the issuer of the euro and will be in charge of the digital ledger of transactions.

Still, private banks are not waiting for the ECB and are laying the groundwork today for a world without cash or human bankers. All that’s left is a digital ledger and total surveillance of everything you do.

Again, the endgame for CBDCs would closely resemble George Orwell’s dystopian "Nineteen Eighty-Four." It would be a world of negative interest rates, forced tax collection, government confiscation, account freezes and constant surveillance. You might not be able to fight back easily in the world of Biden Bucks, but it can be done. There is one nondigital, nonhackable, nontraceable form of money you can still use. It’s called gold (and silver). I urge you to get your hands on some while you still can."

Bill Bonner, "Curses and Calumnies"

Thomas Cole, "The Course of Empire, Destruction"
"Curses and Calumnies"
Yes, there are patterns to life. Cycles. Stories with beginnings, climaxes, and 
endings. We all play our roles. Even​ the ‘greatest story ever told’ had its extras.
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland​​​ - "From a**hole to anti-semite, the 21st century explained in curses and calumnies. And those are just the ‘A’s​!​ Over the years, the name calling comes in waves. We try to connect the dots. We describe what we see. Some people don’t like it.

The dot.com fantasy began to evaporate in March, 2000. The internet was a great success, of course. But it did not lead to greater prosperity for most people. Today, the average person is said to spend seven hours a day looking at an electronic screen. Most of it, we believe, is time wasted.

Then came 9/11. It showed that the great empire – the US at the height of its glory – was remarkably vulnerable. A small group of (mostly) Saudis, on a limited budget, launched a spectacular attack on the heart of American capitalism. The US had no way to retaliate against the terrorists. Its blood was up…with nowhere to go. The attackers were dead. The US had no Gaza. So, it attacked Iraq, which had nothing to do with 9/11.

One of the most visible supporters of the Iraq invasion was ​New York Times​ columnist Tom Friedman. Ten years after the Iraq invasion, Charlie Rose on NPR asked Friedman, in effect, what was the point? Here is his reply: "What they [Islamic extremists] needed to see was American boys and girls going house to house- from Basra to Baghdad - and basically saying: 'Which part of this sentence don't you understand?: You don't think we care about our open society? You think this [terrorism] fantasy [you have] - we're just gonna let it grow?"

Well, suck. on. this. That, Charlie, was what this war was about. We coulda hit Saudi Arabia...​We coulda hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could. In 2003, the empire was losing its mojo. Like a middle-aged man who has an affair, it had to show that it could still rattle windows and bury children in rubble. But it was expensive. The total cost of the ‘War on Terror’ was $8 trillion. Coincidentally, that was the amount that the Fed ‘printed’ since 1999. And thus was the next crisis set in motion.

Yes, there are patterns to life. Cycles. Stories with beginnings, climaxes, and endings. We all play our roles. Even​ the ‘greatest story ever told’ had its extras. What would Christianity be without the ​crucifixion​​ and the glorious resurrection? ​And for that you needed a mob. Pontius Pilate stood as judge over Jesus. “I find no guilt in this man,” he reported. But the mob wanted blood. “Crucify him, crucify him,” they demanded.

People always come to think what they need to think when they need to think it. They need to play their parts. They need to follow the script. By the early 2000s, the fever of war and inflation was upon the land. Under cover of a ‘national emergency’ all resistance gave way…and the dollars rolled off the printing press.

Following 9/11, the Fed cut 500 basis points off its key lending rate. Americans were urged to ‘spend, spend, spend’ to support the economy. The feds even funded a “cash for clunkers’ program to boost auto sales.

But what Americans bought most eagerly were houses. Some bought them to live in. Some bought them to ‘flip.’ And by 2007, the Fed’s ultra-low rates had created another bubble, this one in housing. Buyers paid too much; mortgages couldn’t be paid. That was an easy call: the real estate bubble was going to pop. Many people said confidently that ‘real estate never goes down,’ and dismissed us as cranks or wet-blankets. But some were angry. Here’s Dan:

I was working on 'The Housing Report' in 2005…. That turned into an alert we published that was titled (with understatement) "The Total Destruction of the US Housing Market." This was BEFORE the huge increase in adjustable rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages, and all the subprime fraud that followed. But even then we could see the writing on the wall.

I got a few calls to do radio interviews on it. Most hosts confused or disinterested. But I got ambushed on one interview. The host said I ought to be ashamed for alarming and panicking the public without any proof and that housing was a safe investment and it was disgraceful etc.  Soon, families were walking away from their overpriced houses, dropping the keys through the letter slot (and sometimes leaving the water running). Mortgage finance companies were going broke. Four million people lost their homes.

Then, after the failure of Lehman Bros…and a big drop in the stock market, the Fed went to work…proving once again that there is no calamity that it can’t make worse. Another great emergency! Too much credit had caused too much debt. So, what was the Fed’s response? More credit - ​ a zero rate policy that was the law of the land for the next twelve years.

The picture was becoming clearer and clearer. The US was acting like a banana republic in-the-making, a sh*thole country with too much debt and an incompetent, parasitic elite. But it was also a great empire, financing its far-flung operations on credit…which​ was bound to end in inflation.

By 2016 the whole War on Terror had flopped. Heartland citizens had now spent 36 years trying to keep their heads above water. More and more people saw the nation in decline. It was then that an out-of-left-field presidential candidate admitted that the nation was slipping and pledged to ‘make America great again.’ People wanted to believe that Mr. Trump would do it. He was the messiah they had been waiting for. But the picture we were looking at was very different from what many people wanted to see. The difference was jarring and upsetting. It led to the biggest wave of Dear Reader disaffection that we had ever seen. And they weren’t especially nice about it. “You old fossil…you don’t know what the f** you’re talking about,” they pointed out.

During Mr. Trump’s four years in office, federal debt grew faster than any time in history, with the biggest financial deficits ever…while GDP growth slowed to its lowest since the Great Depression. Yet Mr. Trump vetoed no spending bills. He demanded no balanced budget from Congress. He closed no foreign bases nor ended any of America’s woebegone military adventures. He pushed through a major tax cut, but made no budget cuts to offset the lost revenue. He presided over the Covid Panic lockdowns…and the Great Stimmie Giveaways…and urged the Fed to lower rates even further.

And his trade war was a flop, as everyone knew it would be. On Mr. Trump’s watch, the swamp grew deeper. The nation grew weaker. And the working millions – the people Mr. Trump had ​pledged​​ to help - went deeper in debt than ever before.

But wait…there’s more. The late, degenerate empire was now declining faster than ever.. Joe Biden picked up where Donald Trump left off. Inflation was on the rise. More stimmies. More giveaways. More sanctions. And two new wars! Stay tuned​..​."

Dan, I Allegedly, "We Are Drowning In Debt"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 10/31/23
"We Are Drowning In Debt"
"Globally, the world is in massive debt. It’s just getting worse. 
Plus, we hear about another cyber attack from the one and only Ace Hardware."
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! The U.S. Treasury Is Officially Bankrupt! Will Borrow One Trillion $ From The FED"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/31/23
"Alert! The U.S. Treasury Is Officially Bankrupt! 
Will Borrow One Trillion $ From The FED"
Comments here:

"Target Is Crashing To The Ground, More Stores Are Now Getting Wiped Out"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, AM 10/31/30
"Target Is Crashing To The Ground, 
More Stores Are Now Getting Wiped Out"
"Target is experiencing a severe crisis that is threatening to wipe out its existence. Sadly, it doesn't seem like there’s so much that can be done to avert the situation. As this mega-retailer goes down in a heavy fall, several other stores are losing the battle against the prevailing stormy winds as well. The end is looming."
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "Frustrating Trip To Meijer! Grocery Prices Are Getting Worse!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 10/31/23
"Frustrating Trip To Meijer! 
Grocery Prices Are Getting Worse!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Meijer and are noticing some very frustrating prices on groceries. Sales of regular priced items are even getting overwhelming. We have to buy the sales as we see them to even have a chance to save money on food these days!"
Comments here:

Canadian Prepper, "Civic Defense Alert- 'Be Ready By December 1st', Mobilization"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/30/23
"Civic Defense Alert- 
'Be Ready By December 1st', Mobilization"
Comments here:

Monday, October 30, 2023

Canadian Prepper, "A Wise Man's Warning About What's About To Happen"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/30/23
"A Wise Man's Warning About What's About To Happen"
Comments here:
o
Check out our first interview here 

Check out Joels website, and get the book "Strategic Relocation" 

"McDonald's Mac Prices Go Insane; It's Time For War, Stock Market Loves It; Stores Go On Lockdown"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/30/233
"McDonald's Mac Prices Go Insane; 
It's Time For War, Stock Market Loves It; Stores Go On Lockdown"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Michael Jackson, "Earth Song"

Full screen recommended.
Michael Jackson, "Earth Song"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Close to the Great Bear (Ursa Major) and surrounded by the stars of the Hunting Dogs (Canes Venatici), this celestial wonder was discovered in 1781 by the metric French astronomer Pierre Mechain. Later, it was added to the catalog of his friend and colleague Charles Messier as M106. Modern deep telescopic views reveal it to be an island universe - a spiral galaxy around 30 thousand light-years across located only about 21 million light-years beyond the stars of the Milky Way. 
Along with a bright central core, this stunning galaxy portrait, a composite of image data from amateur and professional telescopes, highlights youthful blue star clusters and reddish stellar nurseries tracing the galaxy's spiral arms. It also shows off remarkable reddish jets of glowing hydrogen gas. In addition to small companion galaxy NGC 4248 at bottom right, background galaxies can be found scattered throughout the frame. M106, also known as NGC 4258, is a nearby example of the Seyfert class of active galaxies, seen across the spectrum from radio to X-rays. Active galaxies are powered by matter falling into a massive central black hole.”

"The Motive..."

"All men seek happiness. This is without exception. Whatever different means they employ, they all tend to this end. The cause of some going to war, and of others avoiding it, is the same desire in both, attended with different views. The will never takes the least step but to this object. This is the motive of every action of every man, even of those who hang themselves."
- Blaise Pascal

Chet Raymo, “The Sea Grows Old In It”

“The Sea Grows Old In It”
by Chet Raymo

“The poet, like the electric [lightning] rod, must reach from a point nearer to the sky than all surrounding objects down to the earth, and down to the dark wet soil, or neither is of use. The poet must not only converse with pure thought, but he must demonstrate it almost to the senses. His words must be pictures, his verses must be spheres and cubes, to be seen, and smelled and handled.” 
– Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Ah, Mr. Emerson. This seems about as good a description of poetry as one is likely to find. I love the image. Not a hand reaching up to grasp the hand of Zeus, the hurler of bolts, but merely a pointed rod that reaches higher than any surrounding objects. A pen-point, scratching the firmament. Not a conductor reaching down to the earth, but deeper, into the wet inkpot of the soul.

Not lofty thoughts, airy philosophies, gnostic arcana. Rather, ideas that come wrapped in the stuff of the senses. Ideas that must be unwrapped the way you’d peel an orange, or pry open an oyster, or stir up from the bottom of a bowl of soup. The electric fire of the heavens captured and stored in the Leyden jar of physical self.

Take, for example, Marianne Moore’s “The Fish”, a poem that has been endlessly analyzed without ever giving up its secrets. Anyone who stands on that rocky shore with the poet, looking into the wave-washed chasm - the sea as fluid as breath, as hard as a chisel- takes away a lesson as profound as any one might learn in school, perhaps without being able to articulate exactly what the lesson is. The experience is simply there, to be seen, smelled, handled, in the weave and wave of animal bodies, in the intricate rhyme and syllabication of the poem. Truth- crow-blue, ink-bespattered, hatcheted, defiant.

I’d go further. I’d say that Emerson’s description of poetry can be equally applied to science, or to any human attempt to attract the spark of Zeus. One must lift one’s rod beyond the scratch and tumble of the everyday, while keeping its foot buried in the dark wet soil of lived experience.”
“The Fish”

“Wade through black jade.
Of the crow-blue mussel-shells, one keeps
adjusting the ash-heaps;
opening and shutting itself like an injured fan.
The barnacles which encrust the side of the wave,
cannot hide there for the submerged shafts of the sun,
split like spun glass,
move themselves with spotlight swiftness into the crevices -
in and out, illuminating
The turquoise sea of bodies.

The water drives a wedge of iron through the iron edge of the cliff;
whereupon the stars, pink rice-grains, ink-
bespattered jelly fish, crabs like green lilies,
and submarine toadstools, slide each on the other.

All external marks of abuse are present on this defiant edifice -
all the physical features of accident -
lack of cornice, dynamite grooves, burns, and hatchet strokes,
these things stand out on it;
the chasm-side is dead.
Repeated evidence has proved that it can live
on what can not revive its youth.
The sea grows old in it."

- Marianne Moore

The Daily "Near You?"

Rogers, Arkansas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Col. Douglas Macgregor, "Bombshell Intel on Ukraine and Israel!"

Col. Douglas Macgregor, 10/30/23
"Bombshell Intel on Ukraine and Israel!"
Considerations regarding Israel's diplomatic
 capabilities amid heightened emotions in the region.

"With Stephen Gardner. Colonel Douglas Macgregor gives a news update on the Ukraine Russia war and the Isreal Palestine conflict with Stephen Gardner. Incidents in Russia involving Israeli travelers met by a group allegedly hostile to Jews, sparking worries about potential sleeper cells formed by displaced Arabs in various countries. This story ended up being a lie. Belarus President Lukashenko's call to cease fighting in Ukraine, raising questions about his stance regarding Putin's interests and whether it's a betrayal or wise observation. Speculation on Putin's health and its impact on the war in Ukraine, with conflicting reports on his well-being. Questions about U.S. intelligence support for Israel, concerns about funding multiple wars, and whether the Treasury Secretary's statement reflects confidence in financial support or is merely bluffing. The Israeli Defense Forces' decision for a slower ground attack on Hamas in Gaza, prompting discussions about the strategy's appropriateness.

Analysis of potential interventions by Turkey and Jordan in the Israel-Gaza conflict and Ukraine's challenges in maintaining alliances amid multiple fronts. Assessment of potential threats to Israel, including the perceived danger posed by the Turkish military. The recent altercation between a U.S. B-52 bomber and a Chinese fighter jet and the motivations behind such encounters, raising questions of intimidation and provocation between the two nations. Reports of Chinese warships in the Persian Gulf, prompting speculation about whether their presence is related to safeguarding interests or aimed at intimidating Israel."
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Redacted, "Warning! Middle East Set To Explode As Gaza Invasion Unfolds"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 10/30/23
"Warning! Middle East Set To Explode 
As Gaza Invasion Unfolds; US Airstrikes"
"Israel says it's bombed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, the US is launching renewed airstrikes in Syria. And Turkey threatens to declare war on Israel. Are we heading for regional war? Or are we already there? Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter is here to talk about the latest developments."
Comments here:

How It Tragically Really Is For Far Too Many"

 

Bill Bonner, "What Goes Around"

"What Goes Around"
Dissension, dissatisfaction, and 
disenchantment among our dear readers...
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "Today is a holiday in Ireland. We celebrate the dead saints. Thank God for our Dear Readers. We learn from them. Especially the critics. We’ve been writing daily since 1998. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong…always in doubt. Generally, reader and writer are of one mind. But once in a while, we are at odds – especially when ‘politics’ are involved.

There have been three major waves of dissension, dissatisfaction, and disenchantment among our readers. Each time, the incoming mail was so emphatic…so riled up and outraged…it made us wonder. Had we let the saints down?

The first came just as we were getting the hang of it. In the late ‘90s, there was a bubble in ‘dot.com’ stocks. Information, it was said, greatly reduced the need for real capital investment. Now available for free on the internet, information was supposed to usher in a period of faster GDP growth and widespread prosperity. Dot.com stocks themselves, concentrated in the Nasdaq, couldn’t be over-priced, said the True Believers, because they were ‘infinitely valuable.’

The River of No Returns: There was a lot of loose talk at the time, and a mood of such optimism that it made us suspicious. The Nasdaq shot up 85% in a single year – 1999 – more than any US index ever had. And the Dow, in terms of gold, rose to an all-time high. In 1999, you could trade the 30 Dow stocks for 40 ounces of gold (for reference, in 1980, the ratio was nearly 1 to 1).

This looked like a bubble to us. And we said so, warning readers to avoid the dot.com stocks, including Amazon.com. Which just shows how you can be right and wrong at the same time. We were right; the dot.com bubble was about to burst. And we were right to label AMZN the “river of no returns;’ its core retail business never made a decent return on capital. But that didn’t mean it wasn’t a success. The stock soared and made millionaires out of thousands of people!

The surprising thing was that many readers didn’t merely think we were wrong…they acted as though we, by calling into question the dot.com bubble, were committing some kind of sin. They cursed us…telling us what idiots we were…and canceling their subscriptions. And it was a free service back then!

We might be wrong; we often are…but why be so upset about it? Nobody knows the future. We just try to connect the dots and guess about what comes next. But, for many people, the dot.com bubble had become very personal…and very emotional… We still don’t know exactly why, but we have a hypothesis. By 1999, America was at the top of its game. Wall Street boomed. The federal budget was balanced. We were not at war; after the demise of the Soviet Union, we faced no serious enemy.

And yet, the typical American had not had a significant raise for a quarter of a century. The rich, on both coasts, were getting richer and richer. But throughout the ‘heartland,’ men lost good-paying jobs in manufacturing and were now locked in a cycle of despair, drugs, unemployment or low-pay service sector jobs. Something was going wrong.

And so, when the Information Revolution came…it seemed like a prison door had suddenly been kicked open. What followed was the great escape. Investors gave each other high fives…and bought Webvan…Global Crossing…or pets.com. This was the big breakout they were waiting for!

Avoiding the Big Loss: Alas, the inmates didn’t appreciate it when we told them they would soon have to return to their cells. They reacted bitterly. What did it mean? Why get so worked up about a financial forecast? Whatever else it signaled, it told us that there might be an even bigger sell-off than we anticipated. In the event, after rising 800% from 1995 to March, 2000, the Nasdaq turned down. Two years later, it was almost back to where it started. By 2004, more than half the dot.coms had disappeared. Fred Wilson, whose venture capital firm funded many of the start-ups, lost 90% of his fortune.

We had urged readers to buy gold and sit out the bear market. The idea was not to make money…but simply not to lose it. Most people make their money from incremental savings and investments built up over the course of their careers. Then, the worst thing that can happen to them financially is to take the Big Loss. After a certain age, it is very hard to recover. Then, as now, our main goal was to avoid the Big Loss.

The next big source of discontent among readers came only a couple years later. The US invaded Iraq. We thought it was a mistake, and said so. In the book of life, the future is always the chapter we haven’t read yet. But life follows patterns. Great nations have their days in the sun. What usually brings the darkness is a combination of over-stretching (war) and overspending (expressed as inflation or default). Americans would do better, we said bluntly, to mind our own business and balance our own budget.

For many readers, this was tantamount to treason. Readers left us by the thousands. Here, the ground beneath our feet was less solid. This was not finance or economics we were commenting on. What qualified us to have an opinion? But we were connecting the dots. And they were beginning to show how money and power can come together in a disastrous way. It was beginning to look like America had peaked out after 1999…that its elite had been corrupted by unearned wealth and unbridled power…and its common people had been addled by its propaganda media, fake money and (later) stimmie checks.

The Real Cost: The feds said the war against Iraq would cost $75 billion. Here’s the news item from 2003:

WASHINGTON (CNN) - "President Bush gave key lawmakers Monday the administration's first estimate of the cost of war with Iraq - about $75 billion, according to members of Congress who attended a White House briefing."

This estimate turned out to be about as close to the truth as the ‘weapons of mass destruction’ allegation. We estimated $1 trillion…and people said we were crazy. But guess what. In 2020, Boston University researchers put the total cost at nearly $2 trillion. And after the 20-year debacle in Afghanistan, Brown University put the final tab for the War on Terror at $8 trillion…with nearly a million people dead.

This was no longer a ‘political’ matter. This was no longer just foreign policy. With the dead saints hanging their heads in pity, the US was headed down that long, lonely road towards inflation and war – and the biggest loss in history. Spending was needed because it was how the elite got rich. War was needed to justify spending. Money was ‘printed’ to cover the spending.

America did not have $8 trillion lying around. So, grosso modo, it ‘printed’ the extra money. The Treasury issued bonds; the Fed bought them with printed-up money. Not entirely coincidentally, the Fed’s balance sheet (its holding of US bonds) increased from 1999 to 2021 by…about $8 trillion.

As early as 2006, in our book “Empire of Debt,” written with Addison Wiggin, we looked ahead: "At some point, America’s debts will probably be incinerated by inflation. When the howls from consumers and voters grow loud enough, the Fed will panic." That is what happened 3 years later. More to come…"

Dan, I Allegedly, "AM/PM 10/30/23"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 10/30/23
"The Bank Of Elon"
"Elon Musk wants to turn X into a bank. Not just any bank, but he wants all of your financial services under one roof. This includes your checking and savings account, buying stocks and your credit cards. Elon Musk's X is formerly Twitter."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly PM 10/30/23
"Ransom Attacks and Mortgage Meltdown"
"We just heard that Boeing got a ransom ware attack. These ransom ware attack start growing exponentially every month. Now the mortgage industry is completely melting down and demanding bonuses from executives be given back."
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"Grocery Prices Going Up Everywhere And More Food Shortages!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 10/30/23
"Grocery Prices Going Up Everywhere
 And More Food Shortages!"
"We are going over many food items that are going up in price right now before the holidays. We also discuss the latest food shortage reports from around the world!"
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"An Unprecedented Credit Crisis Is About to Undercut America's Quality of Life"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 10/30/23
"An Unprecedented Credit Crisis Is About 
to Undercut America's Quality of Life"
"Americans are gradually sinking into a deep financial hole and it keeps getting worse by the day. Hardships facing low-income earners, students, and even the middle class have never been this bad. The numbers give us an insight into how dire the situation is, yet they don’t paint the full picture. A $1 Trillion credit card debt sounds alarming but not alarming enough except you look beyond the figure to millions of Americans in debt and hundreds of thousands using credit cards to pay for groceries and basic amenities like light and water. Inflation is taking its toll on everyday essentials, from food to energy, making it difficult for families to make ends meet."
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Gregory Mannarino, "Know Your Real Enemy, Because They Know You! And What They Want Is Frightening"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/30/23
"Know Your Real Enemy, Because They Know You! 
And What They Want Is Frightening"
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Jim Kunstler, "Jihad, by God!"

"Jihad, by God!"
by Jim Kunstler

“The post-mortem on the disastrous Biden years will be one of incredulity at how Joe Biden, of all people, was ever placed in charge.” - James White

The fog of war has never been so dense, what with the years-long sustained psy-ops of the US Intel “Community” against the American people, the lawfare operations of the Democratic Party against innocent patriots, the homicidal depredations of the pharma-government complex, the Cultural Marxists’ weaponization of language against common sense and common decency, the Neocon warhawks’ serial failed crusades to control faraway lands of dubious national interest, and the relentless mendacity of the sell-out Big Media. 

It’s a wonder that anybody might venture a coherent thought, or that such a thought might survive transmission from person to person intact, without a sadistic beat-down or a dishonest, tactical inversion of meaning along the way. A thought such as: the Jews have a right to exist in a place called Israel. This is now up for debate around the world, whereas it had been accepted as self-evident by many civilized states a few weeks ago.

The military pundit Scott Ritter acted out a spectacular mental melt-down on video the other day. Among the statements he made were: “We need the Israeli army to be destroyed, to suffer defeat”, “Israel is the greatest threat to peace in the world”, “Political Zionism is a rabid dog and must be killed”, “I’m glad Hamas is winning”.

It’s far from clear what Scott’s definition of Zionism is, but Dictionary.com says: “a worldwide Jewish movement that resulted in the establishment and development of the state of Israel and that now supports the state of Israel as a Jewish homeland.” That’s pretty standard across many dictionaries. So, is Scott Ritter calling for the cancellation of Israel? Sounds like it, a little bit. He’s not alone. That has been the dream of most of Islam in the region for seventy-five years. Now, a great multi-nation jihad rises to expel what the Iranians like to call “the Zionist Entity,” as if it were some scaley thing that slithered out of a UFO. Even the American Ivy League is rooting to drive Israel into the sea.

Among the reasons Scott Ritter reviles the Israelis is that they are too weak and incompetent to defend themselves. Their stand-by army of reservists, he says, are too soft and flabby to hump a standard-issue soldier’s kit into a war-zone - and Gaza is the worst sort of urban war-zone. They’ll fall down and have heart attacks the first time they try to run a hundred yards (which could be true, considering Israel’s 90 percent Covid vaxx uptake and the likely resulting non-symptomatic myocarditis present in young men there). Israeli intel sucks, he says. Israel’s sense of superiority, their notion of being the Chosen people, must be smashed. Israeli soldiers should go into Gaza and be shot to pieces, he advises. Scott’s intemperance is… something to behold.

Three weeks ago, the Middle East was on the verge of putting through the Abraham Accords that would have “normalized” relations between Israel and several states of the Arabian Peninsula, exchanges of ambassadors, openings to trade and such. Other Islamic nations in North Africa were expected to join anon. And just before the October 7 Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia was about to hold normalization talks with Israel. That’s all out the window.

Scott Ritter’s proposed initiative goes like this: Call a cease-fire and halt the bombing of Gaza. Israel must commence direct face-to-face negotiations with Hamas - no intermediaries! - for the exchange of hostages and prisoners and to begin groundwork toward a two-state solution, that is, the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. For decades, that two state solution has been hung up on two sharp thorns.

One is the practical question of where that Palestinian State would be. The common idea is that it would be the disputed zone called the West Bank (of the Jordan River) plus Gaza. The West Bank was occupied by Israel in the aftermath of the 1967 Six Day War, as was the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights on Israel’s northern border with Syria. Israel eventually returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in 1982, and Israel ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip in 2005. Gaza has been self-governing since, with internal conflict between its Hamas and Fatah factions. Gaza has been used as a launching site for rocket attacks in Israel ever since, regularly upending attempts to negotiate a lasting peace. Israel, on the other hand, has installed over 600,000 settlers in the West Bank, said to be in violation of international agreements.

The second thorn that hangs up any plausible peace is the Palestinians’ overt declarations in the Hamas charter, for instance, that Israel has no right to exist and must be destroyed. Iran, too, has for years notoriously declared its intention to “wipe Israel off the map.” That is hardly a viable pre-condition for settling this long quarrel. “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” goes the chant. Notice that the Islamic nations surrounding Israel refuse to admit any Palestinian settlers. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, will not take them. Why is that? I’ll tell you: because they understand that the bellicose, fractious Palestinians will bring them trouble.

Western Civ, weakened, broke, and mind-f**ked, now faces a fast-unifying multi-nation Jihad that looks more and more like World War Three. The pressure is on for Israel to re-think its furious response to the savage attacks of October 7. Yet, the threat to its survival has never been so stark. There is little appetite for the US to get involved, though reports out of the war fog indicate that there might be as many as 5,000 US soldiers already inserted into the Gaza campaign alongside IDF soldiers. We have plenty of reason to worry that US towns and cities could be the next target, since no one really knows how many Jihadis have crossed into our country from Mexico under “Joe Biden’s” wide-open border policy. What a moment to be leaderless!"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/30/23"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/30/23"
o
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
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the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
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Canadian Prepper, "Alert: Largest Naval Force Since WW2; Attack On Two Nuclear Plants; Hezbollah Declare War In 5 Days"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/29/23
"Alert: Largest Naval Force Since WW2; 
Attack On Two Nuclear Plants; Hezbollah Declare War In 5 Days"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 10/29/23
"Israel Attacks Huge Military Facility In Syria; 
Hezbollah Bombs Israeli Drone Near Lebanon Border"
"Israeli Air Forces launched "revenge strikes" on Syria after Sunday's attacks. An Israeli aircraft struck military infrastructure in Syrian territory. The strike was part of attacks in Syria's southern province of Daraa. This was in response to alleged launches from Syria towards Israel on Sunday. This report has more details."
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Sunday, October 29, 2023

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Sound of Invisible Waters"

Deuter, "Sound of Invisible Waters"

Chet Raymo, "Lessons"

"Lessons"
by Chet Raymo

"There is a four-line poem by Yeats, called "Gratitude to the Unknown Instructors":

"What they undertook to do
They brought to pass;
All things hang like a drop of dew
Upon a blade of grass."

Like so many of the short poems of Yeats, it is hard to know what the poet had in mind, who exactly were the unknown instructors, and if unknown how could they instruct. But as I opened my volume of "The Poems" this morning, at random, as in the old days people opened the Bible and pointed a finger at a random passage seeking advice or instruction, this is the poem that presented itself. Unsuperstitious person that I am, it seemed somehow apropos, since outside the window, in a thick Irish mist, every blade of grass has its hanging drop.

Those pendant drops, the bejeweled porches of the spider webs, the rose petals cupping their glistening dew - all of that seems terribly important here, now, in the silent mist. There is not much good to say about getting old, but certainly one advantage of the gathering years is the falling away of ego and ambition, the felt need to be always busy, the exhausting practice of accumulation. Who were the instructors who tried to teach me the practice of simplicity when I was young - the poets and the saints, the buddhas who were content to sit beneath the bo tree while the rest of us scurried here and there? I scurried, and I'm not sorry I did, but I must have tucked their lessons into the back of my mind, a cache of wisdom to be opened at my leisure.

Whatever it was they sought to teach has come to pass. All things hang like a drop of dew upon a blade of grass."

Canadian Prepper, "Stock Up Now, Things Could Get Real Ugly Soon"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/29/23
"Stock Up Now, Things Could Get Real Ugly Soon"
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Jeremiah Babe, "America Will Reap A Financial Whirlwind, The Reckoning Is Coming"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/29/23
"America Will Reap A Financial Whirlwind, 
The Reckoning Is Coming"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Ashburn, Virginia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"What You Know..."

"Reputation is what other people know about you.
Honor is what you know about yourself."
- Lois McMaster