Monday, October 30, 2023

Bill Bonner, "What Goes Around"

"What Goes Around"
Dissension, dissatisfaction, and 
disenchantment among our dear readers...
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "Today is a holiday in Ireland. We celebrate the dead saints. Thank God for our Dear Readers. We learn from them. Especially the critics. We’ve been writing daily since 1998. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong…always in doubt. Generally, reader and writer are of one mind. But once in a while, we are at odds – especially when ‘politics’ are involved.

There have been three major waves of dissension, dissatisfaction, and disenchantment among our readers. Each time, the incoming mail was so emphatic…so riled up and outraged…it made us wonder. Had we let the saints down?

The first came just as we were getting the hang of it. In the late ‘90s, there was a bubble in ‘dot.com’ stocks. Information, it was said, greatly reduced the need for real capital investment. Now available for free on the internet, information was supposed to usher in a period of faster GDP growth and widespread prosperity. Dot.com stocks themselves, concentrated in the Nasdaq, couldn’t be over-priced, said the True Believers, because they were ‘infinitely valuable.’

The River of No Returns: There was a lot of loose talk at the time, and a mood of such optimism that it made us suspicious. The Nasdaq shot up 85% in a single year – 1999 – more than any US index ever had. And the Dow, in terms of gold, rose to an all-time high. In 1999, you could trade the 30 Dow stocks for 40 ounces of gold (for reference, in 1980, the ratio was nearly 1 to 1).

This looked like a bubble to us. And we said so, warning readers to avoid the dot.com stocks, including Amazon.com. Which just shows how you can be right and wrong at the same time. We were right; the dot.com bubble was about to burst. And we were right to label AMZN the “river of no returns;’ its core retail business never made a decent return on capital. But that didn’t mean it wasn’t a success. The stock soared and made millionaires out of thousands of people!

The surprising thing was that many readers didn’t merely think we were wrong…they acted as though we, by calling into question the dot.com bubble, were committing some kind of sin. They cursed us…telling us what idiots we were…and canceling their subscriptions. And it was a free service back then!

We might be wrong; we often are…but why be so upset about it? Nobody knows the future. We just try to connect the dots and guess about what comes next. But, for many people, the dot.com bubble had become very personal…and very emotional… We still don’t know exactly why, but we have a hypothesis. By 1999, America was at the top of its game. Wall Street boomed. The federal budget was balanced. We were not at war; after the demise of the Soviet Union, we faced no serious enemy.

And yet, the typical American had not had a significant raise for a quarter of a century. The rich, on both coasts, were getting richer and richer. But throughout the ‘heartland,’ men lost good-paying jobs in manufacturing and were now locked in a cycle of despair, drugs, unemployment or low-pay service sector jobs. Something was going wrong.

And so, when the Information Revolution came…it seemed like a prison door had suddenly been kicked open. What followed was the great escape. Investors gave each other high fives…and bought Webvan…Global Crossing…or pets.com. This was the big breakout they were waiting for!

Avoiding the Big Loss: Alas, the inmates didn’t appreciate it when we told them they would soon have to return to their cells. They reacted bitterly. What did it mean? Why get so worked up about a financial forecast? Whatever else it signaled, it told us that there might be an even bigger sell-off than we anticipated. In the event, after rising 800% from 1995 to March, 2000, the Nasdaq turned down. Two years later, it was almost back to where it started. By 2004, more than half the dot.coms had disappeared. Fred Wilson, whose venture capital firm funded many of the start-ups, lost 90% of his fortune.

We had urged readers to buy gold and sit out the bear market. The idea was not to make money…but simply not to lose it. Most people make their money from incremental savings and investments built up over the course of their careers. Then, the worst thing that can happen to them financially is to take the Big Loss. After a certain age, it is very hard to recover. Then, as now, our main goal was to avoid the Big Loss.

The next big source of discontent among readers came only a couple years later. The US invaded Iraq. We thought it was a mistake, and said so. In the book of life, the future is always the chapter we haven’t read yet. But life follows patterns. Great nations have their days in the sun. What usually brings the darkness is a combination of over-stretching (war) and overspending (expressed as inflation or default). Americans would do better, we said bluntly, to mind our own business and balance our own budget.

For many readers, this was tantamount to treason. Readers left us by the thousands. Here, the ground beneath our feet was less solid. This was not finance or economics we were commenting on. What qualified us to have an opinion? But we were connecting the dots. And they were beginning to show how money and power can come together in a disastrous way. It was beginning to look like America had peaked out after 1999…that its elite had been corrupted by unearned wealth and unbridled power…and its common people had been addled by its propaganda media, fake money and (later) stimmie checks.

The Real Cost: The feds said the war against Iraq would cost $75 billion. Here’s the news item from 2003:

WASHINGTON (CNN) - "President Bush gave key lawmakers Monday the administration's first estimate of the cost of war with Iraq - about $75 billion, according to members of Congress who attended a White House briefing."

This estimate turned out to be about as close to the truth as the ‘weapons of mass destruction’ allegation. We estimated $1 trillion…and people said we were crazy. But guess what. In 2020, Boston University researchers put the total cost at nearly $2 trillion. And after the 20-year debacle in Afghanistan, Brown University put the final tab for the War on Terror at $8 trillion…with nearly a million people dead.

This was no longer a ‘political’ matter. This was no longer just foreign policy. With the dead saints hanging their heads in pity, the US was headed down that long, lonely road towards inflation and war – and the biggest loss in history. Spending was needed because it was how the elite got rich. War was needed to justify spending. Money was ‘printed’ to cover the spending.

America did not have $8 trillion lying around. So, grosso modo, it ‘printed’ the extra money. The Treasury issued bonds; the Fed bought them with printed-up money. Not entirely coincidentally, the Fed’s balance sheet (its holding of US bonds) increased from 1999 to 2021 by…about $8 trillion.

As early as 2006, in our book “Empire of Debt,” written with Addison Wiggin, we looked ahead: "At some point, America’s debts will probably be incinerated by inflation. When the howls from consumers and voters grow loud enough, the Fed will panic." That is what happened 3 years later. More to come…"

Dan, I Allegedly, "AM/PM 10/30/23"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 10/30/23
"The Bank Of Elon"
"Elon Musk wants to turn X into a bank. Not just any bank, but he wants all of your financial services under one roof. This includes your checking and savings account, buying stocks and your credit cards. Elon Musk's X is formerly Twitter."
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly PM 10/30/23
"Ransom Attacks and Mortgage Meltdown"
"We just heard that Boeing got a ransom ware attack. These ransom ware attack start growing exponentially every month. Now the mortgage industry is completely melting down and demanding bonuses from executives be given back."
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"Grocery Prices Going Up Everywhere And More Food Shortages!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 10/30/23
"Grocery Prices Going Up Everywhere
 And More Food Shortages!"
"We are going over many food items that are going up in price right now before the holidays. We also discuss the latest food shortage reports from around the world!"
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"An Unprecedented Credit Crisis Is About to Undercut America's Quality of Life"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 10/30/23
"An Unprecedented Credit Crisis Is About 
to Undercut America's Quality of Life"
"Americans are gradually sinking into a deep financial hole and it keeps getting worse by the day. Hardships facing low-income earners, students, and even the middle class have never been this bad. The numbers give us an insight into how dire the situation is, yet they don’t paint the full picture. A $1 Trillion credit card debt sounds alarming but not alarming enough except you look beyond the figure to millions of Americans in debt and hundreds of thousands using credit cards to pay for groceries and basic amenities like light and water. Inflation is taking its toll on everyday essentials, from food to energy, making it difficult for families to make ends meet."
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Gregory Mannarino, "Know Your Real Enemy, Because They Know You! And What They Want Is Frightening"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/30/23
"Know Your Real Enemy, Because They Know You! 
And What They Want Is Frightening"
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Jim Kunstler, "Jihad, by God!"

"Jihad, by God!"
by Jim Kunstler

“The post-mortem on the disastrous Biden years will be one of incredulity at how Joe Biden, of all people, was ever placed in charge.” - James White

The fog of war has never been so dense, what with the years-long sustained psy-ops of the US Intel “Community” against the American people, the lawfare operations of the Democratic Party against innocent patriots, the homicidal depredations of the pharma-government complex, the Cultural Marxists’ weaponization of language against common sense and common decency, the Neocon warhawks’ serial failed crusades to control faraway lands of dubious national interest, and the relentless mendacity of the sell-out Big Media. 

It’s a wonder that anybody might venture a coherent thought, or that such a thought might survive transmission from person to person intact, without a sadistic beat-down or a dishonest, tactical inversion of meaning along the way. A thought such as: the Jews have a right to exist in a place called Israel. This is now up for debate around the world, whereas it had been accepted as self-evident by many civilized states a few weeks ago.

The military pundit Scott Ritter acted out a spectacular mental melt-down on video the other day. Among the statements he made were: “We need the Israeli army to be destroyed, to suffer defeat”, “Israel is the greatest threat to peace in the world”, “Political Zionism is a rabid dog and must be killed”, “I’m glad Hamas is winning”.

It’s far from clear what Scott’s definition of Zionism is, but Dictionary.com says: “a worldwide Jewish movement that resulted in the establishment and development of the state of Israel and that now supports the state of Israel as a Jewish homeland.” That’s pretty standard across many dictionaries. So, is Scott Ritter calling for the cancellation of Israel? Sounds like it, a little bit. He’s not alone. That has been the dream of most of Islam in the region for seventy-five years. Now, a great multi-nation jihad rises to expel what the Iranians like to call “the Zionist Entity,” as if it were some scaley thing that slithered out of a UFO. Even the American Ivy League is rooting to drive Israel into the sea.

Among the reasons Scott Ritter reviles the Israelis is that they are too weak and incompetent to defend themselves. Their stand-by army of reservists, he says, are too soft and flabby to hump a standard-issue soldier’s kit into a war-zone - and Gaza is the worst sort of urban war-zone. They’ll fall down and have heart attacks the first time they try to run a hundred yards (which could be true, considering Israel’s 90 percent Covid vaxx uptake and the likely resulting non-symptomatic myocarditis present in young men there). Israeli intel sucks, he says. Israel’s sense of superiority, their notion of being the Chosen people, must be smashed. Israeli soldiers should go into Gaza and be shot to pieces, he advises. Scott’s intemperance is… something to behold.

Three weeks ago, the Middle East was on the verge of putting through the Abraham Accords that would have “normalized” relations between Israel and several states of the Arabian Peninsula, exchanges of ambassadors, openings to trade and such. Other Islamic nations in North Africa were expected to join anon. And just before the October 7 Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia was about to hold normalization talks with Israel. That’s all out the window.

Scott Ritter’s proposed initiative goes like this: Call a cease-fire and halt the bombing of Gaza. Israel must commence direct face-to-face negotiations with Hamas - no intermediaries! - for the exchange of hostages and prisoners and to begin groundwork toward a two-state solution, that is, the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. For decades, that two state solution has been hung up on two sharp thorns.

One is the practical question of where that Palestinian State would be. The common idea is that it would be the disputed zone called the West Bank (of the Jordan River) plus Gaza. The West Bank was occupied by Israel in the aftermath of the 1967 Six Day War, as was the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights on Israel’s northern border with Syria. Israel eventually returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in 1982, and Israel ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip in 2005. Gaza has been self-governing since, with internal conflict between its Hamas and Fatah factions. Gaza has been used as a launching site for rocket attacks in Israel ever since, regularly upending attempts to negotiate a lasting peace. Israel, on the other hand, has installed over 600,000 settlers in the West Bank, said to be in violation of international agreements.

The second thorn that hangs up any plausible peace is the Palestinians’ overt declarations in the Hamas charter, for instance, that Israel has no right to exist and must be destroyed. Iran, too, has for years notoriously declared its intention to “wipe Israel off the map.” That is hardly a viable pre-condition for settling this long quarrel. “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” goes the chant. Notice that the Islamic nations surrounding Israel refuse to admit any Palestinian settlers. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, will not take them. Why is that? I’ll tell you: because they understand that the bellicose, fractious Palestinians will bring them trouble.

Western Civ, weakened, broke, and mind-f**ked, now faces a fast-unifying multi-nation Jihad that looks more and more like World War Three. The pressure is on for Israel to re-think its furious response to the savage attacks of October 7. Yet, the threat to its survival has never been so stark. There is little appetite for the US to get involved, though reports out of the war fog indicate that there might be as many as 5,000 US soldiers already inserted into the Gaza campaign alongside IDF soldiers. We have plenty of reason to worry that US towns and cities could be the next target, since no one really knows how many Jihadis have crossed into our country from Mexico under “Joe Biden’s” wide-open border policy. What a moment to be leaderless!"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/30/23"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/30/23"
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Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
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the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
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Canadian Prepper, "Alert: Largest Naval Force Since WW2; Attack On Two Nuclear Plants; Hezbollah Declare War In 5 Days"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/29/23
"Alert: Largest Naval Force Since WW2; 
Attack On Two Nuclear Plants; Hezbollah Declare War In 5 Days"
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 10/29/23
"Israel Attacks Huge Military Facility In Syria; 
Hezbollah Bombs Israeli Drone Near Lebanon Border"
"Israeli Air Forces launched "revenge strikes" on Syria after Sunday's attacks. An Israeli aircraft struck military infrastructure in Syrian territory. The strike was part of attacks in Syria's southern province of Daraa. This was in response to alleged launches from Syria towards Israel on Sunday. This report has more details."
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Sunday, October 29, 2023

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Sound of Invisible Waters"

Deuter, "Sound of Invisible Waters"

Chet Raymo, "Lessons"

"Lessons"
by Chet Raymo

"There is a four-line poem by Yeats, called "Gratitude to the Unknown Instructors":

"What they undertook to do
They brought to pass;
All things hang like a drop of dew
Upon a blade of grass."

Like so many of the short poems of Yeats, it is hard to know what the poet had in mind, who exactly were the unknown instructors, and if unknown how could they instruct. But as I opened my volume of "The Poems" this morning, at random, as in the old days people opened the Bible and pointed a finger at a random passage seeking advice or instruction, this is the poem that presented itself. Unsuperstitious person that I am, it seemed somehow apropos, since outside the window, in a thick Irish mist, every blade of grass has its hanging drop.

Those pendant drops, the bejeweled porches of the spider webs, the rose petals cupping their glistening dew - all of that seems terribly important here, now, in the silent mist. There is not much good to say about getting old, but certainly one advantage of the gathering years is the falling away of ego and ambition, the felt need to be always busy, the exhausting practice of accumulation. Who were the instructors who tried to teach me the practice of simplicity when I was young - the poets and the saints, the buddhas who were content to sit beneath the bo tree while the rest of us scurried here and there? I scurried, and I'm not sorry I did, but I must have tucked their lessons into the back of my mind, a cache of wisdom to be opened at my leisure.

Whatever it was they sought to teach has come to pass. All things hang like a drop of dew upon a blade of grass."

Canadian Prepper, "Stock Up Now, Things Could Get Real Ugly Soon"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/29/23
"Stock Up Now, Things Could Get Real Ugly Soon"
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Jeremiah Babe, "America Will Reap A Financial Whirlwind, The Reckoning Is Coming"

Jeremiah Babe, 10/29/23
"America Will Reap A Financial Whirlwind, 
The Reckoning Is Coming"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Ashburn, Virginia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"What You Know..."

"Reputation is what other people know about you.
Honor is what you know about yourself."
- Lois McMaster

A Timely Repost: “Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”

Full screen recommended.
“Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song
Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”
By Melanie Curtin

“Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here’s a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one’s health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.

Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.

According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- “Weightless”- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants’ overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.

Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created “Weightless”, Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener’s heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.

When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer’s, or influenza.

In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you’ve got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.

Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, “‘Weightless’ was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous.” So don’t drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:

10. “We Can Fly,” by Rue du Soleil (Café Del Mar)
7. “Pure Shores, by All Saints
6. “Please Don’t Go, by Barcelona
4. “Watermark,” by Enya
2. “Electra,” by Airstream
1. “Weightless, by Marconi Union

I made a public playlist of all of them on Spotify that runs about 50 minutes (it’s also downloadable).”

"The Science of Stress and How Our Emotions Affect Our Susceptibility to Burnout and Disease"

"The Science of Stress and How Our Emotions
Affect Our Susceptibility to Burnout and Disease"
by Maria Popova

"I had lived thirty good years before enduring my first food poisoning - odds quite fortunate in the grand scheme of things, but miserably unfortunate in the immediate experience of it. I found myself completely incapacitated to erect the pillars of my daily life - too cognitively foggy to read and write, too physically weak to work out or even meditate. The temporary disability soon elevated the assault on my mind and body to a new height of anguish: an intense experience of stress. Even as I consoled myself with Nabokov’s exceptionally florid account of food poisoning, I couldn’t shake the overwhelming malaise that had engulfed me - somehow, a physical illness had completely colored my psychoemotional reality.

This experience, of course, is far from uncommon. Long before scientists began shedding light on how our minds and bodies actually affect one another, an intuitive understanding of this dialogue between the body and the emotions, or feelings, emerged and permeated our very language: We use “feeling sick” as a grab-bag term for both the sensory symptoms - fever, fatigue, nausea - and the psychological malaise, woven of emotions like sadness and apathy.

Pre-modern medicine, in fact, has recognized this link between disease and emotion for millennia. Ancient Greek, Roman, and Indian Ayurvedic physicians all enlisted the theory of the four humors - blood, yellow bile, black bile, and phlegm - in their healing practices, believing that imbalances in these four visible secretions of the body caused disease and were themselves often caused by the emotions. These beliefs are fossilized in our present language - melancholy comes from the Latin words for “black” (melan) and “bitter bile” (choler), and we think of a melancholic person as gloomy or embittered; a phlegmatic person is languid and impassive, for phlegm makes one lethargic.

And then French philosopher and mathematician René Descartes came along in the seventeenth century, taking it upon himself to eradicate the superstitions that fueled the religious wars of the era by planting the seed of rationalism. But the very tenets that laid the foundation of modern science - the idea that truth comes only from what can be visibly ascertained and proven beyond doubt - severed this link between the physical body and the emotions; those mysterious and fleeting forces, the biological basis of which the tools of modern neuroscience are only just beginning to understand, seemed to exist entirely outside the realm of what could be examined with the tools of rationalism.

For nearly three centuries, the idea that our emotions could impact our physical health remained scientific taboo - setting out to fight one type of dogma, Descartes had inadvertently created another, which we’re only just beginning to shake off. It was only in the 1950s that Austrian-Canadian physician and physiologist Hans Selye pioneered the notion of stress as we now know it today, drawing the scientific community’s attention to the effects of stress on physical health and popularizing the concept around the world. (In addition to his scientific dedication, Selye also understood the branding component of any successful movement and worked tirelessly to include the word itself in dictionaries around the world; today, “stress” is perhaps the word pronounced most similarly in the greatest number of major languages.)

But no researcher has done more to illuminate the invisible threads that weave mind and body together than Dr. Esther Sternberg. Her groundbreaking work on the link between the central nervous system and the immune system, exploring how immune molecules made in the blood can trigger brain function that profoundly affects our emotions, has revolutionized our understanding of the integrated being we call a human self. In the immeasurably revelatory "The Balance Within: The Science Connecting Health and Emotions" (public library), Sternberg examines the interplay of our emotions and our physical health, mediated by that seemingly nebulous yet, it turns out, remarkably concrete experience called stress.

With an eye to modern medicine’s advances in cellular and molecular biology, which have made it possible to measure how our nervous system and our hormones affect our susceptibility to diseases as varied as depression, arthritis, AIDS, and chronic fatigue syndrome, Sternberg writes: "By parsing these chemical intermediaries, we can begin to understand the biological underpinnings of how emotions affect diseases…

The same parts of the brain that control the stress response… play an important role in susceptibility and resistance to inflammatory diseases such as arthritis. And since it is these parts of the brain that also play a role in depression, we can begin to understand why it is that many patients with inflammatory diseases may also experience depression at different times in their lives… Rather than seeing the psyche as the source of such illnesses, we are discovering that while feelings don’t directly cause or cure disease, the biological mechanisms underlying them may cause or contribute to disease. Thus, many of the nerve pathways and molecules underlying both psychological responses and inflammatory disease are the same, making predisposition to one set of illnesses likely to go along with predisposition to the other. 

The questions need to be rephrased, therefore, to ask which of the many components that work together to create emotions also affect that other constellation of biological events, immune responses, which come together to fight or to cause disease. Rather than asking if depressing thoughts can cause an illness of the body, we need to ask what the molecules and nerve pathways are that cause depressing thoughts. And then we need to ask whether these affect the cells and molecules that cause disease.
[…]
We are even beginning to sort out how emotional memories reach the parts of the brain that control the hormonal stress response, and how such emotions can ultimately affect the workings of the immune system and thus affect illnesses as disparate as arthritis and cancer. We are also beginning to piece together how signals from the immune system can affect the brain and the emotional and physical responses it controls: the molecular basis of feeling sick. In all this, the boundaries between mind and body are beginning to blur."

Indeed, the relationship between memory, emotion, and stress is perhaps the most fascinating aspect of Sternberg’s work. She considers how we deal with the constant swirl of inputs and outputs as we move through the world, barraged by a stream of stimuli and sensations:

"Every minute of the day and night we feel thousands of sensations that might trigger a positive emotion such as happiness, or a negative emotion such as sadness, or no emotion at all: a trace of perfume, a light touch, a fleeting shadow, a strain of music. And there are thousands of physiological responses, such as palpitations or sweating, that can equally accompany positive emotions such as love, or negative emotions such as fear, or can happen without any emotional tinge at all. What makes these sensory inputs and physiological outputs emotions is the charge that gets added to them somehow, somewhere in our brains. Emotions in their fullest sense comprise all of these components. Each can lead into the black box and produce an emotional experience, or something in the black box can lead out to an emotional response that seems to come from nowhere."

Memory, it turns out, is one of the major factors mediating the dialogue between sensation and emotional experience. Our memories of past experience become encoded into triggers that act as switchers on the rail of psychoemotional response, directing the incoming train of present experience in the direction of one emotional destination or another.

Sternberg writes: "Mood is not homogeneous like cream soup. It is more like Swiss cheese, filled with holes. The triggers are highly specific, tripped by sudden trails of memory: a faint fragrance, a few bars of a tune, a vague silhouette that tapped into a sad memory buried deep, but not completely erased. These sensory inputs from the moment float through layers of time in the parts of the brain that control memory, and they pull out with them not only reminders of sense but also trails of the emotions that were first connected to the memory. These memories become connected to emotions, which are processed in other parts of the brain: the amygdala for fear, the nucleus accumbens for pleasure - those same parts that the anatomists had named for their shapes. And these emotional brain centers are linked by nerve pathways to the sensory parts of the brain and to the frontal lobe and hippocampus - the coordinating centers of thought and memory. The same sensory input can trigger a negative emotion or a positive one, depending on the memories associated with it."

This is where stress comes in - much like memory mediates how we interpret and respond to various experiences, a complex set of biological and psychological factors determine how we respond to stress. Some types of stress can be stimulating and invigorating, mobilizing us into action and creative potency; others can be draining and incapacitating, leaving us frustrated and hopeless. This dichotomy of good vs. bad stress, Sternberg notes, is determined by the biology undergirding our feelings - by the dose and duration of the stress hormones secreted by the body in response to the stressful stimulus. She explains the neurobiological machinery behind this response:

" As soon as the stressful event occurs, it triggers the release of the cascade of hypothalamic, pituitary, and adrenal hormones - the brain’s stress response. It also triggers the adrenal glands to release epinephrine, or adrenaline, and the sympathetic nerves to squirt out the adrenaline-like chemical norepinephrine all over the body: nerves that wire the heart, and gut, and skin. So, the heart is driven to beat faster, the fine hairs of your skin stand up, you sweat, you may feel nausea or the urge to defecate. But your attention is focused, your vision becomes crystal clear, a surge of power helps you run - these same chemicals released from nerves make blood flow to your muscles, preparing you to sprint.

All this occurs quickly. If you were to measure the stress hormones in your blood or saliva, they would already be increased within three minutes of the event. In experimental psychology tests, playing a fast-paced video game will make salivary cortisol increase and norepinephrine spill over into venous blood almost as soon as the virtual battle begins. But if you prolong the stress, by being unable to control it or by making it too potent or long-lived, and these hormones and chemicals still continue to pump out from nerves and glands, then the same molecules that mobilized you for the short haul now debilitate you."

These effects of stress exist on a bell curve - that is, some is good, but too much becomes bad: As the nervous system secretes more and more stress hormones, performance increases, but up to a point; after that tipping point, performance begins to suffer as the hormones continue to flow. What makes stress “bad” - that is, what makes it render us more pervious to disease - is the disparity between the nervous system and immune system’s respective pace. Sternberg explains:

"The nervous system and the hormonal stress response react to a stimulus in milliseconds, seconds, or minutes. The immune system takes parts of hours or days. It takes much longer than two minutes for immune cells to mobilize and respond to an invader, so it is unlikely that a single, even powerful, short-lived stress on the order of moments could have much of an effect on immune responses. However, when the stress turns chronic, immune defenses begin to be impaired. As the stressful stimulus hammers on, stress hormones and chemicals continue to pump out. Immune cells floating in this milieu in blood, or passing through the spleen, or growing up in thymic nurseries never have a chance to recover from the unabated rush of cortisol. Since cortisol shuts down immune cells’ responses, shifting them to a muted form, less able to react to foreign triggers, in the context of continued stress we are less able to defend and fight when faced with new invaders. And so, if you are exposed to, say, a flu or common cold virus when you are chronically stressed out, your immune system is less able to react and you become more susceptible to that infection."

Extended exposure to stress, especially to a variety of stressors at the same time - any combination from the vast existential menu of life-events like moving, divorce, a demanding job, the loss of a loved one, and even ongoing childcare - adds up a state of extreme exhaustion that leads to what we call burnout.

Sternberg writes: "Members of certain professions are more prone to burnout than others - nurses and teachers, for example, are among those at highest risk. These professionals are faced daily with caregiving situations in their work lives, often with inadequate pay, inadequate help in their jobs, and with too many patients or students in their charge. Some studies are beginning to show that burnt-out patients may have not only psychological burnout, but also physiological burnout: a flattened cortisol response and inability to respond to any stress with even a slight burst of cortisol. In other words, chronic unrelenting stress can change the stress response itself. And it can change other hormone systems in the body as well.

One of the most profound such changes affects the reproductive system - extended periods of stress can shut down the secretion of reproductive hormones in both men and women, resulting in lower fertility. But the effects are especially perilous for women - recurring and extended episodes of depression result in permanent changes in bone structure, increasing the risk of osteoporosis. In other words, we register stress literally in our bones."

But stress isn’t a direct causal function of the circumstances we’re in - what either amplifies or ameliorates our experience of stress is, once again, memory. Sternberg writes: "Our perception of stress, and therefore our response to it, is an ever-changing thing that depends a great deal on the circumstances and settings in which we find ourselves. It depends on previous experience and knowledge, as well as on the actual event that has occurred. And it depends on memory, too."

The most acute manifestation of how memory modulates stress is post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD. For striking evidence of how memory encodes past experience into triggers, which then catalyze present experience, Sternberg points to research by psychologist Rachel Yehuda, who found both Holocaust survivors and their first-degree relatives - that is, children and siblings - exhibited a similar hormonal stress response.

This, Sternberg points out, could be a combination of nature and nurture - the survivors, as young parents for whom the trauma was still fresh, may well have subconsciously taught their children a common style of stress-responsiveness; but it’s also possible that these automatic hormonal stress responses permanently changed the parents’ biology and were transmitted via DNA to their children. Once again, memory encodes stress into our very bodies. Sternberg considers the broader implications:

"Stress need not be on the order of war, rape, or the Holocaust to trigger at least some elements of PTSD. Common stresses that we all experience can trigger the emotional memory of a stressful circumstance - and all its accompanying physiological responses. Prolonged stress - such as divorce, a hostile workplace, the end of a relationship, or the death of a loved one - can all trigger elements of PTSD."

Among the major stressors - which include life-events expected to be on the list, such as divorce and the death of a loved one - is also one somewhat unexpected situation, at least to those who haven’t undergone it: moving. Sternberg considers the commonalities between something as devastating as death and something as mundane as moving:

"One is certainly loss - the loss of someone or something familiar. Another is novelty - finding oneself in a new and unfamiliar place because of the loss. Together these amount to change: moving away from something one knows and toward something one doesn’t. An unfamiliar environment is a universal stressor to nearly all species, no matter how developed or undeveloped."

In the remainder of the thoroughly illuminating "The Balance Within," Sternberg goes on to explore the role of interpersonal relationships in both contributing to stress and shielding us from it, how the immune system changes our moods, and what we can do to harness these neurobiological insights in alleviating our experience of the stressors with which every human life is strewn."

"Disney Is Seriously Struggling Right Now As Business Faces Massive Failures"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 10/29/23
"Disney Is Seriously Struggling Right 
Now As Business Faces Massive Failures"

"Disney is on track to be the first studio to collapse amid unprecedented financial problems, a new report reveals. The mammoth entertainment company just turned 100, and investors are worried it’s starting to show its age. Nearly all segments of the business are underperforming right now, with box-office results going from bad to worse, while its unprofitable streaming platform continues to weigh on balance sheets, and its park division is seeing increasingly fewer customers this year. That’s why the Walt Disney Company is being forced to take some extreme measures to put the brand back on its feet. However, analysts argue that some operational damages are just too profound. They say Disney is falling behind its major competitors, and that bankruptcy is not out of the question.

Third-quarter results showed that the turnaround plan didn’t stop the bleeding – at least, not yet. Over the past three months, Disney’s adjusted earnings declined by 9% year over year, pressured by lower enterprise ad spending and losses in its streaming business. Right now, Disney+ is being called a “money pit” by shareholders. The costs to produce and compete against rivals like Netflix and HBO are extremely high. And even after raising subscription prices, the business doesn’t generate enough revenue to cover production costs, meaning that Disney is currently operating its streaming service at a loss.

The company’s latest report exposes that Disney’s direct-to-consumer segment (which includes Disney+) incurred an operating loss of $512 million. Over the past 12 months, the segment suffered a staggering $1.1 billion loss.

Cooling demand is also impacting Disney’s most successful business. Attendance at Disney parks is falling rapidly. “The parks have become much more expensive with complexities,” stressed Len Testa, who runs the website Touring Plans, which harvested ride data to estimate that attendance is down by 15% this year. “The average guest is spending more, and cutting back the length of stay.”

According to journalist and writer at Medium.com Christopher Cornish, the downfall of Disney’s park business is a sign of a much more serious problem. “We are witnessing what appears to be the collapse of a titan of the entertainment industry into something much less dominant,” Cornish wrote. The second largest segment of the Wall Street Company is studio productions, but both superfans and shareholders are noticing a decline in product quality, as dozens of recent releases registered disappointing box-office results. In fact, Disney is on track to be the first studio to collapse amid box-office bombs.

Big names in Hollywood, including Steven Spielberg, have been raising alarm about the inevitable collapse of the film industry as budgets soar even higher. Dozens of films slated for a 2024 release have already been delayed due to the ongoing actors' and writers' strikes. Variety estimates that the delays on those productions cost Disney studios as much as $2 million a month. As the strikes continue, the entertainment corporation is set to lose even more money.

A recession will further dampen the outlook for 2024, and exacerbate the risks the corporation is facing. There are too many things that need to be fixed, and too little time before something breaks. Unfortunately, this might be the beginning of the end for Disney. The worst is likely ahead, so we should pay very close attention to what happens next."
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"How It Really Is"

 

Dan, I Allegedly, "The Office Is Dead"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 10/29/23
"The Office Is Dead"
"With corporate America changing and people not wanting to return to the office, we discuss how even a company like Expensify, offering free food, drinks, and entertainment, couldn't keep their employees coming back. Join me as I explore the implications of remote work on commercial real estate and the economy, as well as the rise in retail crime and how businesses are struggling to cope."
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Adventures With Danno, "Outrageous Price Increases At Walmart!

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 10/29/23
"Outrageous Price Increases At Walmart! 
This Is Ridiculous! What's Coming!?"
"In today's vlog, we are at Walmart and are noticing massive price increases on groceries! It's getting rough out here as food continues to go up in price due to inflation and many other factors"
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"World War III Update 10/28/23"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/28/23
"Alert! Netanyahu Stays Near Nuclear Bunker; 
Diplomats Flee; 5,000 US Troops, 71 Warships Amassing"
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o
Full screen recommended.
"Turkey-Hamas Alliance Shocked Israel! 
Erdogan's Decision: 'Turkey Is Ready For War'"
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