"Biggest Banks Warn About The Unprecedented Financial Chaos Ahead"

Full screen recommended.

Epic Economist 9/26/23

"Biggest Banks Warn About The 

Unprecedented Financial Chaos Ahead"

"You wouldn’t believe the amount of risk U.S. banks are facing right now. Some of the biggest banks in America are warning about unprecedented financial chaos in the final months of 2023. A new note released by Morgan Stanley points to trouble in equity markets as economic growth disappoints and consumer spending hits a wall. Morgan Stanley’s, Michael Wilson revealed a long list of reasons why he thinks the S&P 500 will face a double-digit crash this year.

The strategist notes that stocks’ valuations will be caught by declining consumer spending, resuming student loan payments, rising delinquencies in certain household cohorts, higher gas prices, and weakening data in the housing sector. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett shares the same view. He warned earlier this month that the possibility of an economic contraction remains high as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten credit conditions. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected corporate earnings will deteriorate economic activity even further this fall, JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted this week, with analysts seeing a major “profit recession” in the fourth quarter.

Morgan Stanley raised red flags on consumer stocks, one of the brightest corners of the market this year. The banks’ economists argue that the rally is already faltering, and stress that elevated levels of household spending can not be sustained in an environment of stalling wage growth, surging consumer debt levels, and rising unemployment. "The market is not trading well under the surface," Wilson said. "There are a lot of car crashes out there," he continued.

He predicts that any shock to the system can send the S&P 500 plummeting from nearly 4,500 points today to the low 3,000s - a drop of more than 25%. Wilson is not alone in sounding the alarm about stocks. A new Goldman analysis forecasts that the S&P500 will underperform in October, and generate dismal returns for the next 12 months.

Moreover, the implications of a commercial real estate crash this year can be seismic, for banks, real estate, and the economy as a whole. "The cracks are forming," Wilson said. "They're all over the place.” With lower occupancy rates and higher interest rates, commercial real estate seems to be falling apart. That’s why tbanks are now preparing for mass bank runs later this year. Banks have started paying up to protect their cash holdings from sinking further and to safeguard against future runs on deposits, according to Bank of America.

The risks are getting so high that last Tuesday, U.S. regulators unveiled plans to force regional banks to issue debt and bolster their so-called living wills, steps meant to protect the public in the event of more failures. “A bank run on one of these vulnerable institutions could cause a ripple effect, causing depositors to withdraw funds from other banks as well. This could lead to a broader panic and a loss of confidence in the banking system as a whole, potentially leading to a recession or even a financial crisis,” the regulator wrote. Everyone knows that something major is about to break. Now it’s time to run for the exits while we still can."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"12 Major Restaurant Chains Are In Big Trouble"

Full screen recommended.

The Atlantis Report, 9/26/23

"12 Major Restaurant Chains Are In Big Trouble"

"It's no surprise that the restaurant industry remains unsafe from the economic turmoil in the US. Rising costs of living have left consumers with less money to dine out, significantly impacting the profitability of the franchises like Olive Garden, Panda Express, and even the NFL’s official pizza provider Little Caesars. These major brands are now witnessing drastically declining sales and increased expenses, causing them to incur massive losses worth millions of dollars, rapidly getting closer to the brink of bankruptcy. Today, we talk about the 12 major restaurant chains that will absolutely fall apart in 2023."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"You Know..."

"You know, we never see the world exactly as it is. We see it as we hope it will be or we fear it might be. And we spend our lives going through a sort of modified stages of grief about that realization. And we deny it, and then we argue with it, and we despair over it. But eventually, and this is my belief, we come to see it, not as despairing, but as vitalizing. We never see the world exactly as it is because we are how the world is."

- Maria Popova

Bill Bonner, "The Dying Kitten"

"The Dying Kitten"

A brief report from the thin line between the living and the dying...

by Bill Bonner

Poitou, France - "We’ll hit the pause button today. We’ll catch up with the economy tomorrow. Herewith, for no particular reason and of no particular importance, is what happened over the weekend. “Is it still alive,” Elizabeth wanted to know? The poor kitten, one of four she had rescued, had been brought into the office. There, she tried to nurse it…with extra rations and a warm blanket. But it wasn’t looking good.

The four kittens were just part of a litter at a neighbor’s house. Born in a barn to a stray cat, they weren’t likely to survive for very long. Elizabeth had grabbed those she could reach and brought them home. “I’ll try to find homes for them.” After a couple of days of feeding and cleaning up, three seemed to be doing well – playing in the yard…jumping…happily amusing themselves by getting into everything. The other one barely moved.

Death in the Fall: It was a beautiful fall weekend in this part of France. The sky was clear. The days were warm. And the nights were crisp, with a bright moon leaving long dark shadows across the lawn. A few of the trees have begun to shed their leaves…one or two of them danced on the breeze before disappearing into a ditch. But the bulk of the autumnal dying is still ahead.

On Sunday, we went to a special mass, a memorial to a local girl who died in an accident many years ago. “She was so pretty and so smart,” explained a friend. “Her father and mother adored her, of course. They expected her to take over the family business. “But when she died the whole family fell apart. They just couldn’t get over it. [The mother] started drinking. She was okay for a while, then she’d go on a binge. Finally, she got lung cancer from smoking so much. She was thin as a rail. They spent years fighting the cancer…alcoholism…and depression. She died last year.

“And the poor father. He used to be so outgoing. So sociable. He had a career in politics. Everyone liked him. And then, he just closed in on himself.” We saw him in church. Stooped. Gray. He looked much older than we remembered him. Along with many others, we had come to pay our respects to him. But as soon as the service was over, he slipped out of the side door.

Elizabeth coached us as we were making our way out of the church. “There’s Jean-Jacques. He lost his wife last year.” “What was her name?” “Francoise…be sure to say something to him. And there’s Marie-Juliette, don’t forget to ask how Rene is doing.” “Who’s Rene?” “Her husband…he had an operation; I can’t remember what kind of operation.” “Oh, you know…” Marie-Juliette replied. “He has good days and bad days… He had a heart operation; the surgeon was very pleased with it. But it didn’t seem to do Rene much good.”

Middle Ages: Friends gathered in front of the ancient church, built in the middle ages. We exchanged greetings…and thoughts that the old stones must have heard 1,000 times.

“It’s hard getting old,” our friend continued. “So many things can go wrong. I think of all the people we know who are widows or widowers. And so many our age who can’t get around because they have some problem.” He listed a few. One neighbor spends his days in a wheelchair; he has a degenerative nerve disease. Another has such a serious case of arthritis, her hands and feet have twisted…making it difficult to walk. Still others – are dying of this or that. “I guess we are all going the same way, sooner or later. And I guess we should be grateful that we’re not there yet.”

Back at home, “how are the kittens doing,” we asked Elizabeth. “The vet said to keep the sick one warm…and bring them in tomorrow, if they’re still alive.”

From across the road, Claude and Christine came to visit. Claude limped. He is much younger than we are, but much heavier…and a farmer. He’s had to stop work. One knee was repaired. He shifted his weight onto the other one. “Now they say I have to have my left knee operated on too, because I’ve been using it too much. Then, it will be another 6 months off work. I’m going a little crazy sitting around the house.” Christine nodded her head in agreement.

Deep France: “But did you hear the good news? Well, maybe it’s not good news for you. Your renters are leaving you. [We rent out two tiny houses on our property.] “What a shock. I saw that they were getting along well…but I was surprised. They’re moving out so they can move into a bigger place – together.”

The shock of it comes from the fact that one of our tenants is 62 years old and already retired. Paul, a disabled electrician, has an earring, which seems uncharacteristically fashionable for this area. This is ‘la France profonde’ – deep France – where the fashions of Paris seem far away…and generally unwelcome. Paul has a bad hip. The other renter is a young woman in her 30s. Heavily tattooed and extremely shy, she might have some disability of her own. Improbably, they got together.

Later in the day, Paul came over to ask permission to break the lease. Then, explaining his new living arrangement: “I didn’t expect it. But you never know. These things happen. I just hope it lasts.” “Best of luck to you both,” we said, as we raised a coffee mug.

By Sunday evening, the kitten was still breathing. But barely. We studied it. It was alive. Prodded, it could move its paws. It murmured once or twice. We watched as it struggled for breath. There is such a thin line between the living and the dead…sometime during the night, the line was crossed. Breathing stopped. These things happen."

- https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/

"How It Really Is"

MORALS? This is 'Murica, fool! "Morals? We ain't got no morals. 

We don't need no morals. I don't have to show you any stinking morals!"

Concept gleefully stolen from here:

"The Life You Have Left..."

“The life you have left is a gift. Cherish it.

Enjoy it now, to the fullest. Do what matters, now.”

~ Leo Babauta

"The Politics of Obedience"

"The Politics of Obedience"

by Brian Maher

“The best slave is the one who thinks he is free.”

- Johann von Goethe

“A people enslaves itself, cuts its own throat, when, having a choice between being vassals and being free men, it deserts its liberties and takes on the yoke, gives consent to its own misery, or, rather, apparently welcomes it.” We believe the 16th-century French political theorist Étienne de La Boétie hooked onto a truth here. We plucked this passage from his masterly work "The Politics of Obedience by" title.

We believe it enjoys high relevance in this, the 21st century. More from which: "It is incredible how as soon as a people becomes subject, it promptly falls into such complete forgetfulness of its freedom that it can hardly be roused to the point of regaining it, obeying so easily and so willingly that one is led to say, on beholding such a situation, that this people has not so much lost its liberty as won its enslavement." Thus the frog goes into its pot of gradually heating water - and never jumps out.

Perfectly Imperfect: We've wondered why so many continue to accept the verdicts of Dr. Fauci... his understrappers within the field of public health… and the elected officials who boss us. In nearly every particular they have proven mistaken - intentionally or unintentionally... Mistaken on masks. Mistaken on lockups. Mistaken on medicines. Mistaken on vaccines. What they claim one day is proven false the following day. What they deny one day is proven true the following day. If not the following day, then the following week. If not the following week, then the following month.

It is not the erring that flusters us. Sincere men - men of good faith - can botch badly. We are merely confounded and discombobulated that so many continue heeding them… and submitting to their blemished authority. And why do so many have such blistering heat against those who point to holes in official theories, who announce that the emperor is well and truly nude? Would they prefer to be foxed, conned and tricked - to believe the emperor is garmented? These are the questions we tackle today...

No Judgment: We do not hector, we do not preach, we do not badger, we do not hold forth today. Nor do we judge. A man shoots an accusing finger outward and three shoot back at him… as is said. We are merely out to solve a puzzle, the way a detective is out to solve a crime, the way an autopsist is out to solve a death.

For light, we turn to Professor Mattias Desmet. This fellow professes psychology at Belgium’s Ghent University. A people acquire an acute anxiety, he explains. In the case before us, acute anxiety of the virus. Coney-catchers, sharpers and opportunists - that is, political leaders - emerge in response, holding out salvation. The people accept the outstretched hand. It soothes and comforts them. Anyone who slaps away this hand is a hellcat, a hobgoblin, a menace to the public happiness.

“Mass-Formation: Here the professor speaks of “Mass-Formation.” As summarized: "In Mass-Formations people become radically intolerant of dissident voices. This person threatens to wake the people up and they get angry when confronted by the initial anxiety and discontent they experience by challenges to the official doctrine. The crowd directs all their aggression at dissident voices.

At the same time they are radically tolerant of their leaders who pronounce the mainstream narrative. These people can lie and cheat and do everything they want and will always be forgiven by the crowd. All the lying, dishonesty and misbehavior is seen by the crowd as doing it for their own safety."

We suffer the acquaintance of certain individuals who fit this description to a fare-thee-well… as perfectly and precisely as the size 10 foot fits the size 10 shoe. They, like your editor, are reasonably sane. They are reasonably reasonable, they are reasonably tolerant. They are generally pleasant and agreeable.

Jekyll and Hyde: But tell them that Dr. Fauci has been less than fully truthful. Tell them that masks are minimally effective. Tell them that lockups fail to jail the virus. Above all… Tell them that these vaccines are not as safe or as formidable as the drummers claim. Now you have a demon on your hands. They will scourge you as a conspiracy theorist… a delusional… an imbecile… a witless dupe of the bedlamite fringe.

Here we speak with the invincible authority of personal experience. We know such gentlemen and ladies. We had best keep the names dark, lest our attorneys receive a sharp note claiming character defamation.

No matter what you hurl against them, it bounces off unbreachable armor… spitballs off a tank. They simply will not listen. They are sunk in a sort of intoxicating hypnosis. And woe to anyone out to shatter the spell…

Why Facts Don’t Work: More: Similar to hypnosis, people in this hyper-focused state are narrowly focused. In hypnosis, only the hypnotized are focused in this way… In Mass-Formation, leaders emerge which are even more narrowly focused than the followers. When people experience this mental intoxication it no longer matters if the narrative is wrong or even blatantly false. What matters is that it leads up to this mental intoxication. This is why they will continue to go along with the narrative.

The resistance to understanding the narrative is false or wrong is driven by the fear of returning to the state of Free-Floating Anxiety and wanting to continue to experience the mental intoxication. This explains why arguing based on facts will not work. Facts no longer matter to them. Given the facts, they are unable to come to sensible conclusions, even in their own best interests.

Here we believe the author lowers his hammer square upon the nailhead. We believe his thesis holds vast explanatory powers. It is immensely plausible. Again: We do not judge or condemn whom we consider the entranced. They consider us entranced. They are of course correct.

For example: This editor of yours believes he is the reincarnated soul of the Emperor Nero. He believes that he is a masterful lover. He believes that he is nice. He accepts them as fact… though in honest moments he concedes he lacks all confirming evidence. But let it go...

The Real Blame: Our grievance is not with the entranced, but rather with the spellbinders who entrance them. That is, with those who would wreck a society over a virus rate with a survival rate in excess of 99%...

With those who would decry the use of safe and effective drug treatments because they would harpoon the legal justification for experimental, emergency-use vaccines… With those who promised us we could discard our facial masks once we took aboard the vaccines… With those who would torture statistics to declare a false “pandemic of the unvaccinated”...

With those who deny that these vaccines have murdered many thousands of people and mangled hundreds of thousands more… With those who would inform mothers-to-be that these vaccines will not injure their child… With those who would vaccinate young children, young children who face infinitesimal risk of sickness or death and who are far more likely to perish from the vaccine itself… With those who believe they can and should dictate the medical choices of free men and women.

It is they who frost our nose. It is they who wring our gizzard. It is they who rile our customary serenity and our detached indifference to the world’s events.

Time for Inaction: We conclude today’s issue where we commenced - with Monsieur Étienne de La Boétie. Here is how to break the hypnotist’s spell… for those who care to break it. His counterspell requires not action - but inaction: "You can deliver yourselves if you try, not by taking action, but merely by willing to be free. Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break into pieces. The time for inaction is now…"

- dailyreckoning.com

○

Freely download "The Politics of Obedience" by Étienne de La Boétie here:

- https://mises.org/library/

"The Only Thing Necessary for Evil to Triumph Is…"

"The Only Thing Necessary for Evil to Triumph Is…"

by Paul Rosenberg

"I’m betting that most of my readers can complete this phrase. The problem is, it isn’t quite true. Edmund Burke, its supposed source, was a good man, but that doesn’t make the saying true. Here’s the complete passage, in the form most of us know: The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.

Yes, there is a time when good men and women must stand up for what’s right, even when it involves risk, but that moment comes only after evil has already been well established and is powerfully on the move.

Fighting evil may be an essential thing, but it isn’t the first problem - it matters only after thousands or millions of mistakes have already been made. And if those first mistakes had not been made, great fights against evil wouldn’t be necessary.

Where Evil Comes From: Let’s begin with a crucial point: Evil is inherently weak. Here’s why that’s true: Evil does not produce. It must take advantage of healthy and effective life (aka productive men and women) if it’s to succeed. Evil, by its nature, is wasteful and destructive: It requires the production of the good in order to do its deeds.

How much territory could Caesar have conquered on his own? How many people could Joe Stalin have killed with no one to take his orders? How many people could Mao have starved to death without obedient middlemen? With duteous followers, however, evil rulers killed some 260 million people in the 20th century.

The truth is that evil survives by tricking the good into doing its will. Without thousands of basically decent people confused enough to obey, evil would fail quickly. The great tragedy of our era is the extent to which evil has been successful in convincing people to service it. Good people having yielded their wills arm evil, accommodate evil, and acquiesce to its actions. 

Hannah Arendt summarized it this way: "The sad truth is that most evil is done by people who never make up their minds to be good or evil. People end up supporting evil because they don’t want to make up their minds at all. They want to avoid criticism and vulnerability, so they hold to the middle of the pack and avoid all risk. These people wouldn’t initiate murders by themselves, but in the name of duty, loyalty and/or the greater good, they cooperate with evil and give it their strength. Each plays a part, but not so large a part that they’ll have to contemplate its effects."

Sins of Obedience: People think of murder, lying, and robbery as sins, but none of those has nearly the death toll of obedience. Basically decent men and women obey agents of evil for very mundane reasons. The process often goes like this:

Confused and intimidated, they look for what’s being punished and what isn’t.

They try not to make waves.

They learn that they can avoid making waves best if they adopt the perspectives of their overlords.

So they run the overlords’ slogans through their minds as a default program.

In the end, these people don’t make up their minds. Rather, they take on the minds of their overlords and do their will. And so, the vast majority of evil done on Earth traces back to minds and wills that have been abandoned to fear.

So…This is what the famous quote should say: 'The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to obey.' We should be painting that saying on our walls."

- https://freemansperspective.com/

o

Full screen recommended.

"Why Are People So Obedient? 

Compliance and Tyranny"

"BIS Warns Of 'Treasury Trade Meltdown'; $150 Crude Oil 'Shockwave'"

"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 

You and I are not in the Big Club."

- George Carlin

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/26/23

"BIS Warns Of 'Treasury Trade Meltdown'; 

$150 Crude Oil 'Shockwave'"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffY7lPN-odQ

$150 crude oil? Hmm, that would translate to about $10 a gallon

 at the pump, maybe higher. How's that sound to you, Good Citizen?

Dan, I Allegedly, "Four Signs We Are In A Recession"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly, AM 9/26/23

"Four Signs We Are In A Recession"

"This is absolutely fascinating. There is a economist with Deutsche Bank, who is predicting that we are already in a recession because of this for main reasons. You can’t deny what he’s talking about has already happened. This is a strong sign as to why business is bad right now. "

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Massive Shortages At Meijer! Not Good! Stock Up On What You Can Afford!'

Full Screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, AM 9/26/23

"Massive Shortages At Meijer! Not Good! 

Stock Up On What You Can Afford!"

"In today's vlog, we are at Meijer and are noticing a massive amount of shortages on groceries and cleaning supplies. We are here to check out some deals, but we are mostly finding items that have skyrocketed in price!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Alert: Something is Very Wrong Here, They're About to Start A Major War!"

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 9/25/23

"Alert: Something is Very Wrong Here, 

They're About to Start A Major War!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Redacted, "Scott Ritter: 'All of them will die and it's Zelensky's fault.'"

Full screen recommended.

Redacted, 9/25/23

"Scott Ritter: 'All of them will die and it's Zelensky's fault.'"

"Neocons are saying that the war in Ukraine will be a "forever war" but analysts say that it is all but over. Seymour Hersh says that Ukrainians are ready for mutiny to stop being led to their death. Is that true? Former weapons inspector Scott Ritter joins us to discuss."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Disturbed "The Sound Of Silence"

Full screen recommended.

Official release.

Disturbed, "The Sound Of Silence"

Singer: David Draiman

936 million views.

○

Full screen recommended.

Conan O'Brian Show live performance.

Disturbed, "The Sound Of Silence"

140 million views.

Folks, there's "something" here, what it is I can't say, but if there are

words for it I don't know them, and can only stand in speechless awe...

"A Look to the Heavens"

"No, hamburgers are not this big. What is pictured is a sharp telescopic view of a magnificent edge-on spiral galaxy NGC 3628, a puffy galactic disk divided by dark dust lanes. Of course, this deep galactic portrait puts some astronomers in mind of its popular moniker, The Hamburger Galaxy.

The tantalizing island universe is about 100,000 light-years across and 35 million light-years away in the northern springtime constellation Leo. NGC 3628 shares its neighborhood in the local Universe with two other large spirals M65 and M66 in a grouping otherwise known as the Leo Triplet. Gravitational interactions with its cosmic neighbors are likely responsible for the extended flare and warp of this spiral's disk.”

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap170503.html

The Poet: Charles Bukowski, “Mind and Heart”

“Mind and Heart”

“Unaccountably we are alone,

forever alone,

and it was meant to be

that way,

it was never meant

to be any other way -

and when the death struggle begins

the last thing I wish to see is

a ring of human faces

hovering over me -

better just my old friends,

the walls of my self,

let only them be there.

I have been alone but seldom lonely.

I have satisfied my thirst

at the well of my self

and that wine was good,

the best I ever had,

and tonight, sitting,

staring into the dark

I now finally understand

the dark and the

light and everything

in between.

Peace of mind and heart arrives

when we accept what is:

having been born into this strange life

we must accept

the wasted gamble of our days,

and take some satisfaction in

the pleasure of leaving it all behind.

Cry not for me.

Grieve not for me.

Read

what I’ve written

then forget it all.

Drink from the well

of your self and begin again.”

- Charles Bukowski

"Is There An Answer..."

"Is there an answer to the question of why bad things happen to good people? The response would be to forgive the world for not being perfect, to forgive God for not making a better world, to reach out to the people around us, and to go on living despite it all, no longer asking why something happened, but asking how we will respond, what we intend to do now that it has happened."

- Harold S. Kushner

Jeremiah Babe, "Warning! Something Wicked Is Coming!"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/25/23

"Warning! Something Wicked Is Coming!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Nine Meals from Anarchy"

"Nine Meals from Anarchy"

by Jeff Thomas

"In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky. The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.

But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbor with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbor and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”

There’s no need to speculate on this concern yet. There’s nothing so alarming on the evening news yet to suggest that such a problem might be imminent. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.

The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.

If there were a month where significant inflation took place (The Feds lie say 9.1%; really now at least 17%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.

From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalized.

In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.

However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighborhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighborhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighborhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.

In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.

Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.

Then… unfortunately… the cavalry arrives. At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighborhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.

Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighborhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place. (If truckers could afford $4.54 a gallon diesel fuel.)

So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. (US debt as of September 2023 $33 trillion; World debt as of September 2023: $307 trillion.) In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop.

With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.

Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.

In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.

Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured."

- https://internationalman.com/

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We'll find out, very soon... God help us.

"8 Foods to Stock Up On Now Before Winter Shortages Hit!"

Full screen recommended.

Finance Daily, 9/25/23

"8 Foods to Stock Up On Now Before Winter Shortages Hit!"

'Folks, with winter approaching, there are concerning signs of potential shortages. If you've been to your local market lately, you might have spotted dwindling supplies and rising prices, partly due to drops in agricultural output. If you're wondering how to prepare, consider setting up a Preppers pantry. I've identified 8 essential foods that are affordable and durable, perfect for stockpiling. To find out exactly which foods these are and why they're crucial, make sure to watch our full video. Remember, in uncertain times, preparation is key."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Food Shortages Are Starting To Become Quite Serious All Over The Planet"

Full screen recommended.

Epic Economist, 9/25/23

"Food Shortages Are Starting To Become 

Quite Serious All Over The Planet"

"We’re witnessing the worst food crisis in modern history, and new data shows it is about to go to an entirely new level. Right now, Hundreds of millions of people are desperately hungry all over the world, and an alarming number of children are facing starvation. According to the official UN website, approximately 735 million people – or 9.2% of the world’s population – are in a state of chronic hunger. New data provided by the organization underscores the severity of the situation, revealing a growing crisis.

Researchers found that an estimated 2.4 billion people faced food insecurity last year. “This classification signifies their lack of access to sufficient nourishment. This number escalated by an alarming 391 million people compared to 2019,” they reported. “The persistent surge in hunger and food insecurity, fueled by a complex interplay of factors, demands immediate attention and coordinated global efforts to alleviate this critical humanitarian challenge,” experts stressed.

In fact, the world is back at hunger levels not seen since 2005, and food prices remain higher in more countries than in the period 2015–2019. “Along with conflict, climate shocks, and rising cost of living, civil insecurity and declining food production have all contributed to food scarcity and high food prices,” the researchers noted.

In America, the abrupt announcement of the export ban triggered panic buying, which drove the price of rice to soar to a near 12-year high, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Food supplies are getting tighter and tighter, and millions of children are experiencing severe malnutrition right now. We would like to say that things are different in the United States, but we’re also seeing more and more children face similar hunger conditions. Time reported that the number of children living in poverty in the United States more than doubled over the past year, according to new figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Sept. 12. This marked the biggest increase since it began using its current method to count them. While in 2021, 5.2% of children were living in poverty, in 2022 that figure was 12.4%, or about 9 million children.

This hike was part of a wider rise in poverty recorded by the Census, and that can be attributed to surging food costs. Advocates for children say the leap was particularly stark for American kids. The surge in poverty is "stunning," Sharon Parrott, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said in a statement. Parrott pointed to the end of the expanded federal Child Tax Credit in 2022 as a cause of the sharp increase in child poverty and called for lawmakers to reinstate the benefit.

The rise in poverty over the past year amounts to an increase of 15.3 million people around the U.S. living in poverty. American households also earned less last year, the Census revealed. The median household income in 2022 was 2.3% lower compared to 2021, and that was the third year in a row that incomes have dipped. "These are statistically significant declines," Rob Wilson, president of Employco USA and an employment trends expert, said in an email. "While many people rushed to defend the 2020 decline as the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fact that Americans' incomes are still declining even now is very concerning."

At this point, the lines at our food banks are getting longer. On top of all that, we are experiencing problems with our crops too. Unfortunately, these are only in the very early stages of this new global food crisis. A series of long-term trends will combine to make it impossible for us to feed everyone on the planet until the end of the decade."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Food Shortage Reports! Cleaning Supplies Are Disappearing!"

Adventures With Danno, PM 9/25/23

"Food Shortage Reports! 

Cleaning Supplies Are Disappearing!"

"We go over the many reports on food and cleaning supply shortages that are dissappearing across the country and around the world! We discuss what is going on and why we need to be prepared for what is about to come!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Ravena, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Jeff Thomas, "The Slavery Contract"

"The Slavery Contract"

by Jeff Thomas

"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations 

become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." 

 – Benjamin Franklin

"It’s no secret that governments tend to be fond of passing laws that obligate their citizenries to the government. In fact, most countries operate a system of direct taxation, which, in itself, allows a government to enact a host of laws obligating the individual to the government, complete with significant penalties for failure to comply.

And, of course, governments, when deciding what sort of general behaviour should be tolerated by its citizenry, tend to legislate less for recompense to those whom a citizen may have wronged and more for recompense to the government itself, even if it has not been wronged in the slightest. Generally speaking, the larger the country, and the older the country, the more extensive the laws.

Of course, in a country that claims to be a democracy, the idea is supposed to be that the will of the people is followed by its elected representatives, which suggests that the people actually have a say in how they are governed – that their government may only impose such laws as the majority agree on.

Well, there’s nothing unusual in that concept. In fact, all contract law is based on the principle that a contract is created that two or more parties agree to. And, with the passage of further laws, the contract would be updated.

However, if I were to ask you to show me a copy of your current contract with your government, I’m guessing that not only could you not produce one, but that it never occurred to you that you should expect one. That being the case, the only way that we could cobble together a contract would be to list a set of general principles under which you are presently governed. We can use US Law as an example, but much the same laws are common in many other countries. For the sake of convenience, we shall use the terms "Servant" and "Master" to describe you and your government.

The Servant may not leave the Master’s property without permission. In order to travel outside the US, you are required to present your government-issued, identifying document for approval for you to leave, even briefly. The decision as to whether you may leave is unilaterally for your government to decide.

The Servant may not receive income of any kind without disclosure to the Master. All income that you receive, whether it be through wages or the sale of goods or services, must be reported to your government.

The Servant shall pay a large percentage of all income to the Master. The amount taken from you will be determined unilaterally by your Master.

The Servant may not own anything that the Master disapproves of.

The Master shall have the authority to declare any commodity or good unlawful.

The Master shall have the authority to fine or imprison the Servant. If the Master determines that the Servant has violated any of rules #2-4, he shall be entitled to fine the Servant or lock him in a cage for a period of time to be determined by the Master.

The Master shall have the authority to monitor the Servant at all times. The Servant’s activities shall be monitored by the Master, through telephone, texts, emails, social media, and other forms of communication.

Of course, these are just the basics, but you get the idea. When looked at in these terms, it becomes difficult to maintain the self-deception that "I live in a democracy. My government exists to serve me, not the other way round."

Interestingly, in most countries, a contract such as the above does exist under the guise of "Law." And yet, this is not a contract that the Servant agreed to. It existed before he was born, and he was obligated to adhere to it merely by being born in a given jurisdiction.

Moreover, the Master has the right to change the contract, to the detriment of the Servant, at will and may do so unilaterally. The larger the country, the greater the degree to which the Servant is unable to take part in the discussion as to whether a proposed change in Law has his approval. Not surprising, then, that the larger the country, the more numerous the laws are likely to be and the more imposing they are likely to be on the Servant.

Still, the relationship of Master and Slave exists most everywhere on the planet, to one degree or another. And it’s understandable if the reader concludes, "Yeah, well, it’s the same no matter where you go. Whattaya gonna do about it?" And yet, that’s not exactly true. It’s not the same everywhere.

There are countries, for example, that have no direct taxation of any kind. The individual, therefore, is not required to disclose his income to his government. Similarly, in countries where there’s no tax on property, the government doesn’t have the power to confiscate property for failure to pay a tax. Also, there are borders between some countries that are "porous." Nationality documents are, in some cases, merely waved at border agents and, in some cases, dispensed with entirely.

Most governments declare some items to be illegal, but the First World appears to have a lock on regulating or outlawing virtually every commodity.

And, of course, the monitoring of the populace is quite unequal. The more sophisticated the technology in a country, the greater the surveillance. This does not mean that you have to live in a hut in the jungle to escape surveillance; it means that many countries simply cannot afford to fund or choose not to fund maximum surveillance.

The bad news is that, in any country, we’re enslaved by our government to one degree or another. The good news is that we can, at least at the present, vote with our feet and choose to reside in a location where we have greater autonomy – in some locations, far greater autonomy."

- https://internationalman.com/

Bill Bonner, "What We Expect"

"What We Expect"

Rates up, prices up, corruption and chaos to reign...

by Bill Bonner

Poitou, France - "U.S. bond yields hit 17-year high following Federal Reserve's interest rate stance…two-year U.S. Treasury note yield reached 5.2% …, marking a 1.4 percentage point increase since May and its highest level since 2006. The 10-year Treasury note yield is also nearing a 16-year high of 4.5%.

However, due to ongoing economic strength and a tight labor market fueling persistent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its tightening policy well into 2023. This could potentially lead to further decreases in bond prices as markets anticipate a higher peak in the federal-funds rate this year and fewer cuts in 2024."

Today, we will try to put this in perspective. Where are we in the Inflate or Die story? What chapter? What page?

Muddy Waters: We are still in a transition period. From the bull markets of 1980 – 2020, we are now entering into bear markets. Or so we believe. Bonds topped out with a yield of only .11% on the 2-year Treasury note in July 2020. Now, the rate is nearly 50 times higher. Stocks reached their peak in December 2021. Since then, they are cheaper, but less dramatically so.

Are they going down or up? In this transition period, it is impossible to know. Prices react to the facts…and to the fictions. The fact is, hard to know. Interest rates are higher…which means, capital values should be lower. But a whole generation grew up when interest rates were going down and stock and bond prices were going up. They learned to “buy the dip” and not much else. What are they to do now? The confusion deepens.

First, even though the turnaround in stocks began almost 2 years ago, stocks are still very expensive. There’s a relationship between income and capital prices. A shrewd landlord, for example, may spend 8-10 times rents to buy an apartment building. Likewise, the relationship between the stock market and GDP forms what has become known as the ‘Buffett Indicator.” Warren Buffett figures that stocks should be worth around 80% of GDP. He uses that measure to know when the stock market is over-, or under-,valued. Today, the ratio is at 167% – more than twice the historical norm.

Enough Rope: And here’s our friend, MN Gordon, with another way to look at it: "Another guide for determining the overall value of the stock market is Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This accounts for inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. Currently, the CAPE ratio is over 30, which is well above its historical median of 15.94.

The current CAPE ratio is about where it was when the stock market peaked in 1929, just prior to the onset of the Great Depression. The only time the CAPE ratio has been higher is at the peak of the dot com mania, in December 1999, and in late-2021.

Adding further confusion… while we have been in a tightening cycle for 18 months, actual monetary policy is still very ‘loose’. David Stockman: "Surprise! During the 186 months through August 2023 the Fed funds rate was negative in real terms fully 97% of the time (180 months). But apparently, all it took was just three months of barely positive readings for the Fed to throw in the towel on its rate normalization campaign.

That’s right. As recently as May, the inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate was still minus 0.48% and turned ever so slightly positive in June and July. Yet the Y/Y trimmed mean CPI still posted at +4.47% in August, meaning that yesterday’s freeze of the target funds rate at 5.33% yielded a real rate of just +0.48%.

Coffin Nails - Plus, you have to add the effect of the federal government’s inflationary spending. This year, the US deficit will be around $2 trillion. Aurora Research has this update:

"About $10T worth of debt has accumulated since the pandemic. The national debt is likely to exceed $50T by the end of the decade if nothing substantial is done.

Many federal programs passed by the Biden administration are costing more than expected. Here are two examples:

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was supposed to cost about $400B over 10 years. The reality is that it may cost more than $1T. The government simply underestimated the generosity of energy tax credits in the act.

The Employee Retention Credit was supposed to cost about $55B. It has already cost $230B. Recently, the IRS froze the program to stop fraud.

Estimates are that the Federal government will be paying over $10T in interest over the next decade.

For the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the federal deficit stands at $1.5T, a 61% increase over the same period last year.

The U.S. national debt equals over $254,000 per taxpayer.

In addition to the national debt, the government has unfunded liabilities. These liabilities now total over $193T. This equates to over $577,000 per U.S. citizen

What does it all mean? Hard to say. But as new Primary Trends assert themselves…and as more and more real resources are taken away from the real economy…we expect real interest rates to go up…consumer prices to rise…corruption and political chaos to increase…and asset prices to fall. That is not a forecast for next week or next month…but that is what we see coming in the years ahead. We’d be happy to be proven wrong."

- https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/

Dan, I Allegedly, "The IRS Is Going To Know"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly 9/25/23

"The IRS Is Going To Know"

"So many people thought that they had the perfect side hustle this summer by selling Taylor Swift tickets. There’s only one problem and that is that the IRS has been watching the sites and you need to report the sales for those tickets. The economy is getting hit by a four-way whammy as well."

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"How It Really Is, For Far, Far, Too Many"

Yeah, we remember...