Bill Bonner, "A Call To ARMs"

"A Call To ARMs"

National debt surpasses $33 trillion, Treasury yields take

 off and a nation turns its lonely eyes to the Fed, boo-hoo-hoo...

by Bill Bonner

"Now I’ve got plenty of arms.

Big arms. Pretty arms.

I got arms up the wazoo."

~ General Rancor, "Spy Hard"

Poitou, France - "Today is the big day. The Fed is supposed to begin its “pause”…a prelude, it is widely believed, to cutting rates next year. Nearly 20 years ago, we wrote a book, with Addison Wiggin, in which we saw this coming. On some dark day in the future, we predicted, “the Fed will panic. In desperation, [the Fed chairman] will point south, toward Argentina. ‘There…that is our only way out,’ he will say.” That was what is known in meteorology as a ‘long range weather forecast.’ But the range is shortening all the time. And investors are beginning to look for their umbrellas.

Climbing Mt. Debtmore: Here is an item from yesterday’s news, Scripps: "US national debt surpasses $33 trillion for first time. The U.S. national debt exceeded $33 trillion for the first time ever this week, according to the Treasury Department, surpassing a critical milestone at a time when government spending is in the national spotlight."

Now, let’s widen the focus. Reuters: "Global debt hits record $307 trillion, debt ratios climb - IIF. Global debt hit a record $307 trillion in the second quarter of the year despite rising interest rates curbing bank credit, with markets such as the United States and Japan driving the rise, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said on Tuesday.

The financial services trade group said in a report that global debt in dollar terms had risen by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. The latest increase has lifted the global debt-to-GDP ratio for a second straight quarter to 336%. A slowdown in growth, alongside a deceleration in price increases, have caused nominal GDP to expand less slowly than debt levels and were behind the debt ratio rise, the report said."

And here is another report, which gives us a hint of the Fed’s coming panic, the Washington Examiner: "Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 as markets fret Fed action. Treasury yields have risen in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision this week, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level in more than a decade. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were sitting at 4.34% on Tuesday, the highest they have been since 2007. Meanwhile, the benchmark two-year Treasury yield was at 5.08%, the highest it has been since 2006, although it was briefly a bit higher in March."

Let’s see. The world’s debt pile is getting higher and higher…as interest rates go up. Somewhere up ahead, the drunk driver meets his brick wall.

No Way, José: In July of 2020, the yield on a 2-year Treasury bill was 0.11%. Now, over 5%, it is 45 times as high. And if the world’s debt had to be financed at today’s 2-year rate, it would mean annual interest payments of more than $15 trillion – or 17% of world GDP. Not going to happen. Can’t happen.

The problem is the ARMs. Last week, the financial world was enchanted by the biggest IPO in 2 years. The Financial Times: "Shares in the chip designer, Arm, jumped as much as 20% as it began trading on the Nasdaq yesterday, valuing the Softbank-backed company at more than $63 billion. The company was worth only $32 billion in 2016. Seven years later it added $31 billion in value. How was that possible, given that sales growth and net income actually declined last year? “We’re more diversified now,” explained the CEO."

This is, of course, no explanation. Diversity may make a company more resilient; it is not likely to make it more profitable. Last year the company had net income around $500 million. At $63 billion, the market is capitalizing the business at 120 times earnings. Or, to put it another way, if you bought the whole business…and things stayed the same…you’d have to wait until year 2,143 to get your money back. Which is a long time to expect things to stay the same in the tech world.

Yes, some people may still have rotary phones and wear bell bottoms. Long Playing vinyl records are coming back in style. But nobody is getting rich by selling floppy disks or cassette tapes. For every new technology, there is newer technology. And for everyone who makes money betting on it, there are at least 10 old geezers living on Social Security who wished they’d sold earlier.

Things never stay the same. You have to adjust to them. Which is why it is not the short Arm that gets our attention this morning…it’s the long ARMs.

Printing Press Prosperity: We all know that homeowners would have been better off if, when the gettin’ was good, they had gotten long-term fixed-rate mortgages. They could make their small payments…and wait for the mortgage company to beg them to pay off their loans early. An adjustable rate mortgage, on the other hand, in a period of rising interest rates, is murder. Imagine you have a mortgage of $300,000. You got it at 3% – or less than $1,000 per month. Now, it’s 7% – more than twice as much.

Shorter-term loans are generally cheaper, so much of the world’s debt is short term, and – in effect – adjustable rate. We’ve seen (above) that the official US national debt is over $33 trillion. We’ve also seen that $7.6 trillion of it will need to be adjusted over the next 12 months. Instead of paying 0.11% – as the Treasury did for a 2-year loan in 2020 – it may pay over 5%. A big adjustment. But that’s not all. Not included in the official debt total are obligations for Social Security, veterans’ benefits, disability (NOT including reparations or student loan forgiveness) and other unfunded liabilities that tote to nearly $200 trillion, according to our usually reliable source, MN Gordon at Economic Prism. These liabilities adjust daily. That is, the funds for them must be raised on the open market, as they come due.

All this adjustable rate debt is like a dental appointment that has been put off for too long. It won’t be much fun, when you finally get in the reclining chair. We stand by our forecast. As the rates move upward…and businesses, households and the government try to adjust, central banks around the world will panic…and go back to the printing presses."

- https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/

"It's Happening Right Before Your Eyes (Housing Crash)"

The Economic Ninja, 9/20/23

"It's Happening Right Before Your Eyes (Housing Crash)"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Dan, I Allegedly, "It’s Time to Sell It All"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly 9/20/23

"It’s Time to Sell It All"

"The market is about to collapse. Today I bring on Bob Kudla, who tells

us to “sell it all.” He feels that the market is going to be shorted extensively."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Food And Employee Shortage Reports! This Is Getting Worse!"

Adventures With Danno, AM 9/20/23

"Food And Employee Shortage Reports! 

This Is Getting Worse!"

"We are discussing the recent surge in grocery prices and new reports coming in on more food shortages! We are also going over all of the recent employee shortages all around the country! It is getting crazy out here as more families are struggling to put food on the table!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Jeremiah Babe, 9/19/23

Jeremiah Babe, 9/19/23

"Your New Career Will Be In Fast Food; 

Stop Believing In Economic Fantasies"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Canadian Prepper, "Cancelled! This Is Going To Get Very Ugly"

Canadian Prepper, 9/19/23

"Cancelled! This Is Going To Get Very Ugly"

"Proof that this ship is sinking. Justin Trudeau just held an emergency meeting about food prices, food price hikes are coming! Rising energy, transport, fertilizer prices as well as climate issues are causing prices to explode.

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Greater Than The Sum"

Full screen recommended.

2002, "Greater Than The Sum"

In Ancient Greece, philosopher Aristotle (384–322 B.C.)

wrote “The whole is greater than the sum of the parts”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"From our vantage point in the Milky Way Galaxy, we see NGC 6946 face-on. The big, beautiful spiral galaxy is located just 20 million light-years away, behind a veil of foreground dust and stars in the high and far-off constellation of Cepheus. From the core outward, the galaxy's colors change from the yellowish light of old stars in the center to young blue star clusters and reddish star forming regions along the loose, fragmented spiral arms.

NGC 6946 is also bright in infrared light and rich in gas and dust, exhibiting a high star birth and death rate. In fact, since the early 20th century at least nine supernovae, the death explosions of massive stars, were discovered in NGC 6946. Nearly 40,000 light-years across, NGC 6946 is also known as the Fireworks Galaxy. This remarkable portrait of NGC 6946 is a composite that includes image data from the 8.2 meter Subaru Telescope on Mauna Kea.”

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap180224.html

Carl Sagan, “Humility”

Full screen recommended.

Carl Sagan, “Humility”

"Vive la Difference, Indeed!"

Full screen recommended.

"Five Stupid Questions Women Ask Men:

Vive la Différence, Indeed!"

"Why is it that men are better at getting their needs met than women? Maybe because they know how to keep it simple. Connie Podesta explains in this humorous yet poignant clip the five stupid questions women ask men and why. This is a very funny clip, enjoy!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Hat tip to Kamosa from Second Life for this material!

Comments? He asks from a safe distance, of course lol...

"Poof!"

"Some people center the universe around themselves; while making other people nothing but decorations to their existence. "I will do this and then I will do that and then people will think this about me and then people will think that about me, and then I will add that person to my life when the convenient time arrives, and this person over here would make a very convenient addition as well..." They build their own thrones for themselves, and add decorations all around their thrones. The problem with that is: it does not bring happiness. A throne must be built for you; it must not be you who builds your own throne. If so, everything that you think you are is only an illusion! And illusions dissolve one day. Poof!"

- C. JoyBell C.

"Too Often..."

"The majority of us lead quiet, unheralded lives as we pass through this world. There will most likely be no ticker-tape parades for us, no monuments created in our honor. But that does not lessen our possible impact, for there are scores of people waiting for someone just like us to come along; people who will appreciate our compassion, our unique talents. Someone who will live a happier life merely because we took the time to share what we had to give. Too often we underestimate the power of a touch, a smile, a kind word, a listening ear, an honest compliment, or the smallest act of caring, all of which have a potential to turn a life around. It’s overwhelming to consider the continuous opportunities there are to make our love felt."

- Leo Buscaglia

Gerald Celente, "Interest Rate Freakout: Here's What's Next"

Strong language alert!

Gerald Celente, Trends Journal 9/19/23

"Interest Rate Freakout: Here's What's Next"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Taylors Falls, Minnesota, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"15 Big Restaurant Chains That Are In Deep, Deep Trouble"

Full screen recommended.

Epic Economist, 9/19/23

"15 Big Restaurant Chains That Are In Deep, Deep Trouble"

"Restaurants are facing an exceedingly difficult period right now. With American consumers being overwhelmed by the cost of basic staples, people have considerably less money to visit their favorite food joints this year, and this is severely hurting the bottom line of famous chains like Olive Garden, Waffle House, and even the NFL's official pizza place, Little Caesars.

Despite being one of the most well-known restaurants in America, Olive Graden is facing its fair share of struggles this year. Parent company Darden Restaurants informed investors and analysts that they will have to lower their expectations as inflation continues to pressure its main customer base. CNBC reported that the company's profits fell nearly $100 million below expectations, and that same-store sales dropped 8% below target. Raj Vennam, the Chief Financial Officer of Darden, explained that because Olive Garden was both an eat-in location and had an that was more at risk due to the rising cost of everyday necessities, sales numbers weren't as strong as the company predicted they would be. Catering to middle and upper-middle-class Americans, the brand has been particularly susceptible to disruptions as these groups coped with higher inflation and slow wage growth in recent years. As it turns out, consumers today are far less willing to spend $20 for an entree when fast-casual brands like Chipotle are cheaper, and that's a major issue for Olive Garden. In response, the casual dining chain trimmed its menu, pivoted to takeout, and is trying to cut costs. But industry experts are questioning whether those measures will be enough to save the company from the overall decline in traffic and the reduction of its main clientele.

Meanwhile, management is struggling to bring Waffle House back on its feet. CEO Walter Ehmer revealed that sales volumes dropped dramatically, and an acute labor shortage is still causing disruptions in its operations. The company's servers only earn $2.92 an hour and rely mainly on tips to have a livable wage, which led thousands of workers to quit in the past couple of years, and left recruiters scrambling to find new personnel to fill in vacant positions. Still, the chain is now charging a 20% fee on all 'To-Go orders' claiming that 10% is paid to servers and 10% is a service fee. However, customers don't seem convinced that's the real reason why prices are going up at Waffle House. On social media, many say the company is 'price gouging' its customers while failing to provide financial support to its workers. Under public scrutiny, Waffle House is losing popularity at a time when it desperately needs to boost sales and profits to survive the ongoing downturn.

With lower sales volumes, and more expensive costs, these and many other major brands are losing millions of dollars in profits and getting closer to bankruptcy court. These are just a few businesses being affected by the current economic downturn. Many people in the media deny that we're in a recession, but the fact that even some of the most-established restaurant chains in the market are fighting to stay afloat tells us otherwise. A flood of bankruptcies is coming, and many beloved chains will go down next.

Conditions will only become tougher as we enter another rocky period for the U.S. economy. So before your go-to restaurant disappears, we decided to list several chains that are struggling to survive right now."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The Peculiar Power Of Denial"

"The Peculiar Power Of Denial"

We'd rather risk societal collapse than face the sacrifices and challenges of 

revolutionizing our unsustainably neofeudal economy and broken gears of governance.

by Charles Hugh Smith

"Denial is scale-invariant and universal - we've all experienced it in some way or another. By scale-invariant, we mean the individual, household, enterprise, city, state and empire all experience denial. Denial has several signature characteristics:

1. The more profound and consequential the issue, the more stubborn our denial. When a minor cut reddens, we don't go into denial that it's infected, we simply treat it with greater care. But when the unmistakable signs of heart disease appear, we find ways to deny the reality because it's too upsetting and frightening. We want very desperately to think it will go away on its own and we'll be fine, and nothing in our life will change.

2. The strength of our denial flows from the tacit understanding that if we let even a tiny bit of doubt break through our dam of denial, the whole foundation will give way. The power of denial originates in the impermeability of the barrier blocking warning signs that all is not well. If the enterprise, relationship, policy, investment, etc. is no longer sustainable or viable, we must shut out all doubt and evidence because even a rivulet of doubt and evidence will quickly erode the dam of our denial and collapse our sense of security, control and predictability.

And so we hold fast to the idea that these chest pains are merely indigestion, and inflation is already receding. We fiddle with data ("ex-food, fuel, used cars, shelter, healthcare, childcare, hospitality and dining out, inflation is trending down!") to conjure up an alternative reality in which everything is fine, under control, progress and growth are still positive and unstoppable, and so on.

When challenged, we become defensive and angry, as if our security and identity are under attack. Since we've tied our identity and security to fixed, rigid standards, should those standards erode and decay, we deny the erosion because we feel our own security, identity and sense of control are giving way and might collapse. To avert this disaster, we shore up our dam of denial, making sure no shred of doubt or evidence gets through to threaten us.

This strategy is terribly misguided, of course, because denying reality doesn't make the threat go away, it magnifies the risk of collapse. Denial can be summarized as the stubborn inability to tell the truth because our fear of losing control as the foundations of our life crumble beneath us is so great that we're compelled to cling to denial and fantasy: debt doesn't matter, the government can print as much money as it needs, we'll just renovate all those empty office towers into housing, and so on.

Reality is only a threat if we've forsaken flexibility, adaptability, problem-solving, and the willingness to make sacrifices and accept failure - what I call Self-Reliance. The appeal of denial is uniquely powerful because it offers us a means to cling to our security, identity and sense of control without having to actually do anything.

Just as we'd rather risk expiring from a heart attack than face the sacrifices and challenges of revolutionizing our diet and fitness, we'd rather risk societal collapse than face the sacrifices and challenges of revolutionizing our unsustainably neofeudal economy and broken gears of governance.

And so all those who've benefited from the Bubble Economy look down on the decaying city center from their comfortable, smartly-appreciating homes and cling to the absurd fantasy that the rot won't reach them - indeed, the rot can't possibly reach us, it will stay safely far away and we'll be safe here in our enclave.

This is remarkably reminiscent of the wealthy Romans just before the collapse, complaining to each other in correspondence about the annoyances of decay seeping into their comfortable estates. They too reassured themselves that Rome was eternal, everything would right itself without any sacrifice on their part.

Their correspondence ended abruptly when the Imperial courier service ceased to function. The "Barbarians" (i.e. non-Italian residents of the Empire) who assumed power did not have the wherewithal to gather the taxes needed to support the immense Imperial infrastructure that made life comfortable for the landed wealthy, and so it went away.

So no worries, our neofeudal system, broken governance and all, is eternal and will fix itself without any sacrifices on our part. Maybe those chest pains are just indigestion. Let's just ignore them, they'll probably go away on their own.

Alternatively, we can relinquish fantasies and fear and accept that it's adapt or expire and we'll have to handle the adapting ourselves. This is the path of Self-Reliance, and if we're willing to take it, the path is wide open."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

- https://www.oftwominds.com/

Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "The Origin of Charles Darwin"

"The Origin of Charles Darwin"

Standing on the shoulders of giants...and dwarves.

By Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

"A mistake I strongly urge you to avoid for all you’re worth,

An error in this matter you should give the widest berth,

Namely don’t imagine that the bright lights of your eyes

Were purpose made so we could look ahead or that our thighs’

And calves were hinged together at the joints and set on feet

So we could walk with lengthy stride, or that forearms fit neat

To brawny upper arms, and are equipped on right and left

With helping hands, solely that we be dexterous and deft

At undertaking all the things we need to do to live.

This rationale and all the others like it people give

Jumbles effect and cause, and puts the cart before the horse."

~  Lucretius, "De Rerum Natura"

Paris, France - "Darwin read Adam Smith. When he came back from his long voyage on the Beagle, he read Dugald Stewart’s biography of Adam Smith. He read Malthus. He read his own grandfather, Erasmus, an admirer and imitator of Lucretius. He was not alone. He was evolving.

Ideas fight for survival. Some succeed. Most don’t. Dozens of Christian heresies succumbed. Dozens of well-developed theories, too – about the movement of planets…the influence of the gods…the vapors…the air itself and the flux of nature. All of them lived, some briefly, and all died out; like dinosaurs and floppy disks, they were poorly adapted to the new world.

A Greater Revolution -  But Smith’s new idea was an alpha idea…a Genghis Khan of an idea, one that would produce thousands of offspring. It wasn’t completely new. But it was new enough…and it was ready for a renaissance…a renewal – it was born again in the 19th century and continues to shape our thinking after 150 years.

What Darwin wrought, wrote Alfred Russel Wallace, “was a greater revolution in human thought within a quarter of a century than any of our time – or perhaps any time…a new conception of the world of life…”

The idea had been in the shadows for many centuries. And disappeared entirely for long stretches. While widely acknowledged today as useful and descriptive, its implications are still not fully appreciated. It explains why so many of our public policies are destined to fail…and why so many of the views and opinions you read in the New York Times and Washington Post are nonsense.

At first, the idea of ‘evolution’ was confined to biology. We saw the fossils… the skeletons…the footprints of ancient species; we noticed the legs taking shape…the arms…and the monkeys, swinging from the trees…and then, walking upright, almost human. And then, the fossil collections grew. Hip bones were fitted together with leg bones…and whole new baubles – including hitherto unknown species of “humans” – were hanging from the family tree. The resemblances were unmistakable. There was Uncle Harvey’s jaw – on the face of a baboon! There was Aunt Lucy’s nasty growl…coming from a hyena.

“The Evolution of Everything”: And it was all laid out for us, 2000 years ago, after the Greek gods had been dismissed…and before Christ climbed Calvary, by Lucretius:

"For certainly the elements of things do not collect

And order their formations by their cunning intellect.

Nor are their motions something they agree upon or propose

But being myriad and man-mingled, plagued by blows

And buffeted through the universe for all time past,

By trying every motion and combination they at last

Fell into the present form in which the universe appears."

People do things. They build their own houses. They choose their own music. They invent. They innovate. They find their own mates, often with no conscious awareness of what they are doing…or why they are doing it. And by combination and recombination things come together, not by any design…but by happenstance. Some things survive. Some don’t. In either case, they don’t need no stinkin’ Fed to guide them.

Even Darwin himself was reluctant to take the idea much further than biology. And yet, doesn’t it apply to just about everything? Lord Ridley wrote a book about it, “The Evolution of Everything.” The principle…that things evolve, by human action but not human design…seems to describe government, money, technology, culture, genes, even morality. They are all “man mingled;” but no human mind controls them or comprehends them.

You’ve seen us make the point many times before, mischievously….that if slavery were still profitable, it would still be with us. It was the Industrial Revolution that undid it…not Lincoln…not Harriet Beecher Stowe…and not William T. Sherman burning down Atlanta.

Gradually…then Suddenly: Imagine that you want to take a trip across the USA. And imagine that slavery were still in style. You could harness a team of slaves to a wagon. Actually, you would need several wagons….many of them just to provide food, water, clothing for the slaves. With such an arrangement, aided by a strong lash, you could lumber across mountain, plain and valley…the slaves carrying you in your sedan chair, hoisted on their shoulders. Then, after setting out from New York…and many months of travel, great sacrifice, much suffering and adventure… perhaps you would reach California. Or maybe not.

Or, taking advantage of the industrial revolution, you could get in your F150 and be there in a couple days of comfortable travel. Who do you have to thank for this marvelous improvement? Who designed the Industrial Revolution? Henry Ford? Andrew Carnegie? Eugenio Barsanti? Or the Baptist lay-preacher, Thomas Newcomen?

Newcomen is credited with being the first to convert heat to useful kinetic energy. He was tinkering…devising a way to power a pump to keep the water out of mines. He heated water. The steam pushed up a piston, and then, switching a valve, the piston reversed, forcing the cooled steam out. Then, the valve switched again and the process repeated itself. Up, down…up, down…add more fuel to the fire and the ‘machine’ will keep pumping.

But who invented the iron he used? The wheel? Who discovered fire? Evolution gives us our world. But it is not a world that anyone designed or created. Instead, we all add to it (or subtract from it)…little by little, and then by sudden, occasional bursts – such as Darwin’s “Origin of the Species.”

Entrepreneurs find a profitable model…or go broke looking for it. Investors carefully place their money, hoping to earn a decent return, and keep investing their money…until it is all gone. Politicians stumble through lies and errors…forcing or enticing people to do things they oughtn’t do…distorting the present…delaying progress… and the Fed (tomorrow!) will use its ‘cunning intellect’ to pretend to know what it can never know and do what it can never do; it will tell us exactly what interest rate the world needs right now. It will not let the credit market ‘fall’ into its natural form; it will give it a shove…Stay tuned."

o

Joel’s Note: “If I have seen further than others,” observed Sir Isaac Newton, “it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” It was an insight the Founding Fathers of the United States well appreciated. When it came to the establishment of the American republic, those who oversaw its “origins documents” were acutely aware of the lessons of history. Indeed, the ancient world continued to guide and temper their impulses long after those documents were inked and filed.

Wrote Jefferson himself, in a letter to Henry Lee, a half century after the founding… “Men have differed in opinion, and been divided into parties by these opinions, from the first origin of societies; and in all governments where they have been permitted freely to think and to speak. The same political parties which now agitate the US. have existed thro’ all time. Whether the power of the people, or that of the ἄριςτοι [ancient greek for “aristocracy” or “nobility”] should prevail, were questions which kept the states of Greece and Rome in eternal convulsions; as they now schismatize every people whose minds and mouths are not shut up by the gag of a despot…”

From the ancient aristocracy to today’s “rich men north of Richmond,” man’s basic nature remains largely unchanged. As such, history provides a useful roadmap not only for whence we’ve come… but where we’re headed, too.

We alluded to BPR’s shameless affinity for the classics in yesterday’s missive. Indeed, it was a decade or so ago, over an unhurried lunch at our favorite parrilla in Buenos Aires, that Bill conceived the idea of an online community that would rescue the classical texts from dusty libraries and bring them into the refulgent light of the digital age. The resulting project – Classical Wisdom – is still going strong today. Dear readers are kindly invited to check it out, right here on Substack.

As for the evolution of ideas, Dan reminded us this morning that progress is not always linear… and that often, bad ideas trump good ones. Once again, we’re hearing about Peak Oil… only this time, it’s not on the supply side. Demand for fossil fuels is likely to peak this decade, say the “experts,” as the world transitions to something cleaner, cheaper, and abundant. Just what that magical replacement might be, exactly, is not at all clear…But it’s likely to be one giant step backwards for a species highly dependent on reliable, high-density energy.

“It's a big con,” writes Dan. “Reverse engineering the industrial revolution and the use of fossil fuels means a lower quality of life for everyone on the planet.” Ah… just when we think we’ve seen over the distant horizon, we discover our would-be leaders, standing squarely on the shoulders of dwarves. More on the “great energy devolution” to come…"

- https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/

o

Freely download "De Rerum Natura", by Lucretius, here:

- https://www.poetryintranslation.com/

"How It Really Is"

That'll be the day!

"Nationwide, on average, 79% of U.S. adults are literate in 2023.

21% of adults in the US are illiterate in 2023.

54% of adults have a literacy below 6th grade level."

- https://www.thinkimpact.com/literacy-statistics/

"The problem isn't that Johnny can't read. The problem isn't 

even that Johnny can't think. The problem is that Johnny 

doesn't know what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling."

- Thomas Sowell

"Five percent of the people think; 

ten percent of the people think they think; 

and the other eighty-five percent would rather die than think."

- Thomas Edison

Dan, I Allegedly, "Let the Crime Begin"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, I Allegedly 9/19/23

"Let the Crime Begin"

"Crime is rampant across the country. But this takes the cake. Illinois is the first state to have no cash bail of any kind. This is insane."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Outrageous Prices At Winn-Dixie! This Is Ridiculous! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, AM 9/19/23

"Outrageous Prices At Winn-Dixie! 

This Is Ridiculous! What's Next?"

"In today's vlog, we are at Winn-Dixie and are noticing some outrageous price increases on groceries! This is not good as grocery prices have already reached an all-time high! It's getting rough out here as more and more families struggle to put food on the table!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "This Entire Thing Is Going To Abruptly Stop"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/19/23

"This Entire Thing Is Going To Abruptly Stop

 And You Must Be Prepared For It"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

"US Debt Rises Above $33 Trillion For The First Time,

 Soars By $1 Trillion In 3 Months"

o

"Debt to the Penny"

"The Debt to the Penny dataset provides information about the total outstanding public debt and is reported each day. Debt to the Penny is made up of intragovernmental holdings and debt held by the public, including securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. Total public debt outstanding is composed of Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Floating Rate Notes (FRNs), and Federal Financing Bank (FFB) securities, as well as Domestic Series, Foreign Series, State and Local Government Series (SLGS), U.S. Savings Securities, and Government Account Series (GAS) securities. Debt to the Penny is updated at the end of each business day with data from the previous business day."

- https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/

"Alert: Elites Leave Washington; Nuke Event In Ukraine; Emergency Meeting On Food Prices/Shortages"

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 9/18/23

"Alert: Elites Leave Washington; Nuke Event In Ukraine; 

Emergency Meeting On Food Prices/Shortages"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"People Aren't Laughing Now; Things Are About To Get Very Painful"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/18/23

"People Aren't Laughing Now; 

Things Are About To Get Very Painful"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Runrig, "Running to the Light"

Full screen recommended.

Runrig, "Running to the Light"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In silhouette against a crowded star field along the tail of the arachnalogical constellation Scorpius, this dusty cosmic cloud evokes for some the image of an ominous dark tower.

In fact, clumps of dust and molecular gas collapsing to form stars may well lurk within the dark nebula, a structure that spans almost 40 light-years across this gorgeous telescopic portrait. Known as a cometary globule, the swept-back cloud, is shaped by intense ultraviolet radiation from the OB association of very hot stars in NGC 6231, off the upper edge of the scene. That energetic ultraviolet light also powers the globule's bordering reddish glow of hydrogen gas. Hot stars embedded in the dust can be seen as bluish reflection nebulae. This dark tower, NGC 6231, and associated nebulae are about 5,000 light-years away."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210715.html

"We Know..."

"We have not overcome our condition, and yet we know it better. We know that we live in contradiction, but we also know that we must refuse this contradiction and do what is needed to reduce it. Our task as humans is to find the few principles that will calm the infinite anguish of free souls. We must mend what has been torn apart, make justice imaginable again in a world so obviously unjust, give happiness a meaning once more to peoples poisoned by the misery of the century. Naturally, it is a superhuman task. But superhuman is the term for tasks we take a long time to accomplish, that's all.

Let us know our aims then, holding fast to the mind, even if force puts on a thoughtful or a comfortable face in order to seduce us. The first thing is not to despair. Let us not listen too much to those who proclaim that the world is at an end. Civilizations do not die so easily, and even if our world were to collapse, it would not have been the first. It is indeed true that we live in tragic times. But too many people confuse tragedy with despair. Tragedy, D.H. Lawrence said, ought to be a great kick at misery. This is a healthy and immediately applicable thought. There are many things today deserving such a kick."

- Albert Camus

"You Think..."

"You think you will never forget any of this, you will remember it always just the way it was. But you can t remember it the way it was. To know it, you have to be living in the presence of it right as it is happening. It can return only by surprise. Speaking of these things tells you that there are no words for them that are equal to them or that can restore them to your mind. And so you have a life that you are living only now, now and now and now, gone before you can speak of it, and you must be thankful for living day by day, moment by moment, in this presence. But you have a life too that you remember. It stays with you. You have lived a life in the breath and pulse and living light of the present, and your memories of it, remember now, are of a different life in a different world and time. When you remember the past, you are not remembering it as it was. You are remembering it as it is. It is a vision or a dream, present with you in the present, alive with you in the only time you are alive."

~ Wendell Berry

The Poet: Robinson Jeffers, "We Are Those People"

"We Are Those People" (1941)

"I have abhorred the wars and despised the liars,

laughed at the frightened

And forecast victory; never one moment's doubt.

But now not far, over the backs of some crawling years, the next

Great war's column of dust and fire writhes

Up the sides of the sky: it becomes clear that we too may suffer

What others have, the brutal horror of defeat -

Or if not in the next, then in the next - therefore watch Germany

And read the future. We wish, of course, that our women

Would die like biting rats in the cellars,

our men like wolves on the mountain:

It will not be so. Our men will curse, cringe, obey;

Our women uncover themselves to the grinning victors

for bits of chocolate."

- Robinson Jeffers

"It May Be Necessary..."

"You may encounter many defeats, but you must

not be defeated. In fact, it may be necessary to

encounter the defeats, so you can know who you are,

what you can rise from, how you can still come out of it."

- Maya Angelou

The Daily "Near You?"

Alexander City, Alabama, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Life, eh?"

"We said together, wistfully, 'Life, eh?' It says everything without having to say anything: that we all experience moments of joyful or painful reflection, sometimes alone, sometimes sharing laughs and tears with others; that we all know and appreciate that however wonderful and precious life is, it can equally be a terribly confusing and mysterious beast. 'Life, eh?"

- Miranda Hart

Brian Maher, "Rickards Raises Hurricane Flag"

"Rickards Raises Hurricane Flag"

by Brian Maher

"Moans reader Michael R.: “What’s the point of reading these lengthy remarks about the demise of our economy? All I’m seeking is specific stock tips.” A fish prowls the depths in pursuit of lunch. It seeks its own “stock tips” to guide the hunt. It lacks all curiosity of the greater ocean through which it slithers.

Yet we hazard our readers are not simply fish hunting lunch. We hazard they harbor a greater appetite. An appetite - that is - for a greater understanding of the oceanic realm they inhabit. They seek to understand the deeper currents that push them here and pull them there. They seek to understand the formation of tempests that frenzy them. They seek to understand “the big picture.” To which compass point are interest rates drifting? Is the economy sailing into biting recessionary gales? Are financial typhoons taking form? We seek answers to these questions - and we believe you do too.

Neptune Is a Capricious and Inscrutable God: Thus we take our barometric readings. Thus we float our weather balloons. Thus we consult our weather stations. What comes of it all? We often botch the forecast. We are an oceanographer who is - if you’ll forgive the expression - “at sea.” Yet Neptune is a capricious and inscrutable god. His will is not easily divined.

Should we abandon the quest altogether? We do not believe we should. We may place you on hurricane watch. By our own admission, the storm may never blow ashore. Yet what if it does? What if it battens you… rubbles your house… even murders you? Is it not better to prepare - just in case - even if the tempest tacks to sea? Is not the preventive ounce worth its curative pound? The ounce is light. The pound is heavy.

Jim Rickards Issues a Hurricane Watch: Jim Rickards issued his own hurricane watch. Jim telegraphed a warning that the barometric pressure is plunging… the sea is churning… and that within weeks perhaps… another Lehman-like hurricane may barrel ashore: "We are just days from another “Lehman moment.” The same thing happened 15 years ago to the date – when the historic collapse of Lehman Bros. triggered a wave of bank runs all over the country. I had warned a senior member of Congress that something like this might happen just three weeks before it did."

This senior member of Congress failed to heed Jim’s advisory. Few, in fact, did. Yet three weeks later the storm blew in and blew Lehman down. Thus commenced the “Great Financial Crisis.”

And now? While Joe Biden has tried to assure us the banking system is “safe and sound,” all my indicators are pointing to a massive aftershock unlike anything we’ve seen since 2008.

The three largest credit ratings firms in the U.S. are sounding the alarm as well. Moody’s just downgraded 10 large regional banks and has threatened to cut another six banking giants – including Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial.

Fitch, another agency, recently cut America’s credit rating for the first time since 2011… And is now warning DOZENS of banks may soon suffer the same fate…

And Standard & Poor’s has now followed their lead – downgrading five more banks that are doomed to fail.

When precisely does Jim expect landfall? "This crisis isn’t coming next month, next week or tomorrow…It’s already here. And it’s about to get a lot worse. In fact, The fuse has already been lit on a massive, $3 trillion time bomb that could blow up at any moment. And while our federal overlords have tried to assure us the crisis is contained, dozens, if not HUNDREDS, of banks are about to get wiped out." You may only have days left to prepare.

The Ounce of Prevention and the Pound of Cure: Will Jim’s grim forecast prove accurate? Or is he raising a false storm flag? Or is landfall perhaps months distant - not days or weeks distant - as Jim projects? We do not know. Each outcome is possible.

Yet we return to the advantages of preparation, to the ounce of prevention and its pound of cure. You plywood your windows. You stow emergency provisions. You purchase a power generator. And if the hurricane skirts you altogether? If the winds and rains never besiege you? Your ounce of prevention has cost you comparatively little — some plywood, some foodstuffs, a generator.

The Prepared vs. the Unprepared: Yet what if the tempest actually comes in and waylays you? Your ounce of prevention works its pound of cure. You are equipped. Your windows can withstand the gales, you have abundant rations on hand, your lights are on. You are the envy of your neighbors - your neighbors who failed to prepare. They are wrecked, famished and powerless - literally and figuratively.

You are not. What would they give for a second chance, a chance to step back in time… and purchase their ounce of prevention? Very much we hazard. Yet it is too late. The precious ounce is unavailable at any price. Yet against the banking hurricane Jim forecasts… it is available… at an attractive price.

Will they prove necessary? Again, we do not know. We do not know if landfall is next week, next month or never. Yet they constitute prevention. And they may prove priceless.

“Sometimes Right, Sometimes Wrong… and Always in Doubt” We can only issue our forecasts, secure in the knowledge we may make heavy weather of them. Explains our co-founder, Mr. Bill Bonner:

"We’re often wrong… which leaves us exposed to ridicule as well as regulatory threats.

“You said that stock would go up…” say the critics.

“You said Congress would never go along…”

“You said the economy would be in recession by now…”

When you’re looking into the future, there are an infinite number of things you can be wrong about. Since we’ve been writing for so long, we’ve probably already been wrong about most of them. And we’ll get the rest of them wrong in due course.

But our Dear Readers know we are mortal, just like they are. They don’t expect us to be right all the time. They only expect us to be honest… about what we see and hear and think and know… and to work hard to try to discover tomorrow’s truth before it is mainstream news.

We are out to connect the dots so we can see when to buy stocks… what the Fed will do… what will happen to our economy… or where the country is going… We mock the conceits of the great and the good. We laugh at absurd trends and foolish fads… and at ourselves… And we squint so hard our eyes hurt, desperately trying to catch a tiny glimpse of real truth. And we never forget our humble motto: Sometimes right, sometimes wrong… and always in doubt."

And so here we sit: Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong…Always in doubt."

- https://dailyreckoning.com/

"Peter Schiff: This Story Will Have A Tragic Ending"

"Peter Schiff: 

This Story Will Have A Tragic Ending"

by Schiffgold

"After the August CPI report showed price inflation heating up again thanks to rising gasoline prices, Peter Schiff appeared with Jesse Kelly on First TV to answer the question: where are we heading? Peter said this story is going to have a tragic ending.

Peter opened the interview by pointing out that the current spate of price inflation had its origins in the 2008 financial crisis. What the government did in response to that crisis – QE1, QE2, QE3 – all of that, plus what we did during COVID, that is the source of all this inflation. And it’s going to continue to get worse as long as we continue to run these massive deficits.”

Peter noted that the US government is currently running budget deficits averaging $2 trillion every year. "This is going to lead to much higher inflation in the future than what we’ve experienced in the past.” Peter also said he thinks the decline in the CPI is over. "I think inflation is going to be a much bigger problem in 2024 than it was in 2023.”

Jesse said it seems like we’re in a death spiral. Peter agreed and said the spiral is even worse than you might think because increasing interest rates contribute to the rise in CPI. Interest rates are a price. And it’s an important price for a lot of companies, just like labor, and rent, and raw materials, companies borrow money to conduct their business, to make capital investments, to expand. A lot of these companies have taken up debt over the years and now the cost of servicing that debt has risen sharply.” Businesses will pass on these rising prices to consumers.

Meanwhile, consumers are making less money. Real incomes fell by 0.5% month-on-month in August. This continues a trend we saw last year when household incomes fell by 2.3%.

So, how does this story end? The story is going to have a tragic ending, unfortunately. We’re going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. The Fed is going to print money until the dollar collapses. I think that day of reckoning is at hand. I don’t know that it’s tomorrow, but it’s coming sometime soon.”

Peter noted the global move toward de-dollarization. Countries are looking for alternatives to the US dollar. That’s bad news for a US economy that depends on its ability to export its inflation to its trading partners. "As our trading partners move away from the dollar, the dollar is going to fall very fast. Prices are going to rise much faster than they have been. And at some point, it is going to spiral out of control - especially the debt. We have so much debt, and as the interest on the debt really rises, then it puts even more pressure on the Fed to print even more money to buy more bonds to put some kind of cap on how high interest rates go. It just accelerates the cycle. Because what’s driving everybody out of dollars and out of bonds is inflation. And if the Fed has to create even more inflation to stop interest rates from rising, it just creates an even more powerful incentive for everybody who owns Treasuries, or any dollar-denominated debt, to sell it. Then it pushes down the price, rates go up, the Fed has to print even more money, and it ends in a currency crisis. That’s where we’re headed.”

Peter said gold is the biggest threat to the dollar. "That’s what’s going to replace the dollar as the primary monetary reserve asset. The dollar replaced gold. So, gold is just going to take back that mantel.

At one time, the world accepted dollars because they were backed by gold. They were just as good as gold. But that’s not the case anymore. The dollar is just a piece of paper. So, I think the world is going to go back to real money as the basis for the monetary system and all of these fiat currencies will be legitimate currencies again because they will be backed by real money, which will be gold.”

A move back toward a gold standard would level the playing field globally, but it would be difficult for the US. It has become accustomed to issuing the world reserve currency. That’s what enabled us to live beyond our means for all these decades. It’s what enabled these huge trade deficits. It allowed our economy to evolve in the way that it did so that we have this consumer-based spending economy that can’t really survive without the rest of the world propping it up. And that’s what’s going to stop. The world is not going to prop it up anymore because it’s going to move beyond the dollar.” Peter said when that happens, the US will have to rebuild its economy from the bottom up. Americans will have to go back to saving and producing."

- https://schiffgold.com/

"The Coming Collapse Of The Global Ponzi Scheme"

"The Coming Collapse Of The Global Ponzi Scheme"

by George Ford Smith

"It won’t be long before governments around the world, including the one in Washington, self-destruct. Strong words, but anything less would be naïve. As economist Herbert Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it has a tendency to stop.” Case in point: fiat money political regimes. Interventionist economies of the West are in a fatal downward spiral, comparable to that of the Roman Empire in the second century, burdened with unsustainable debt and the antiprosperity policies of governments, especially the Green New Deal.

In the global Ponzi scheme, thin air and deceit substitute for sound money. As hedge-fund manager Mitch Feierstein wrote in Planet Ponzi, “You don’t solve a Ponzi scheme; you end it.” Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff "...made some of their investors a whole lot poorer, but the world didn’t come crashing down as a result."

For that‌ - for a Ponzi scheme that would threaten to bankrupt capitalism across the entire Western world‌ - you need people much smarter than Ponzi or Madoff. You need time, you need energy, you need motivation. In a word, you need Wall Street.

But Wall Street alone doesn’t have the strength to deliver a truly cataclysmic outcome. If your ambition is to create havoc on the largest possible scale, you need access to a balance sheet running into the tens of trillions. You need power. You need prestige. You need a remarkable willingness to deceive. In a word, you need Washington.

As Gary North wrote in a brief review of Feierstein’s book, “The central banks have colluded with the national governments in order to fund huge increases of national debt, beyond what can ever be paid off. In other words, [Feierstein] has described government promises as part of a gigantic international Ponzi scheme.”

In a recent interview, Peter Schiff, who was laughed at when he predicted the economic meltdown of 2007–9, said interest on the federal debt alone “will be about a trillion by the end of this year. By the end of next year [it will reach] two trillion dollars - and that’s if interest rates don’t go up. This is a huge debt bomb that’s going to explode.”

Ultra-high corporate and credit card debt, along with bank insolvency sustains his argument for a coming collapse, the polar opposite of Biden’s economic dream. Along with this, Reuters notes that the spread between two- and ten-year Treasuries is at the deepest inversion since 1981. Rarely has an inverted yield curve not signaled a recession.

Can Jerome Powell and his advisors steer the economy into a soft landing? Not this time. “The only landing possible is a crash, where everyone on board dies,” Schiff recently tweeted. "Ponzi and Madoff went to jail for their schemes, but how do you prosecute governments for theirs? Prosecution implies being a part of government. And with rare exceptions such as Ron Paul, those who go into government believe gold is a barbarous relic and the Fed is a good thing that just needs a little government tinkering. So, the guilty will go unpunished, unless public outrage misguidedly turns to nonjudicial violence. The rest will be too busy trying to survive and protect those they care about."

The War on Being Human: A study of history, including US monetary history, makes clear that the state is not in the business of securing our liberty. As the previous nine hundred plus days have made clear, any defense of “liberty” would likely be regarded as hate speech. Instead, we are inundated with the feel-good words of diversity, equity, and inclusion along with the fear-driven campaigns of climate change and killer covid. Challenge any of it and you’re demonized—or worse.

But the state can’t do anything significant without monopolizing money, and the Orwellian central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be the latest installment to control the monetary system. The new FedNow payment system with its emphasis on user convenience is providing the framework and psychological grooming for CBDCs.

The Shadow Superpower: We can stop this from happening. Two states, Florida and Indiana, have effectively banned CBDCs as money in those states. Other states will likely follow. The government will outlaw cash at some point, but those who use it now are casting a vote against CBDCs.

Many people will turn to barter, some using barter metals, and to the shadow economy. If this sounds desperate, consider how the global black market in 2011 was the world’s fastest-growing economy. Sometimes referred to as System D, it features both the usual, small transactions of flea market trades or workers looking for employment in the parking lots of home improvement stores and also larger, international trades. David Obi, a Nigerian, relying on his cell phone and his own initiative, contacted a Chinese firm to have small diesel-powered generators shipped to his home country, where electric power is often scarce: “Like almost all the transactions between Nigerian traders and Chinese manufacturers, it was also sub rosa: under the radar, outside of the view or control of government, part of the unheralded alternative economic universe of System D.”

Friedrich Schneider, research fellow at Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria, whose expertise is in off-government economies and who coauthored "The Shadow Economy," found that System D is growing faster in many countries than the officially recognized gross domestic product. If System D were an independent nation, it would be the second-largest economy in the world.

Conclusion

The future is undecided, but we can help determine the outcome if we take responsibility for it. Wikipedia defines System D as “a manner of responding to challenges that require one to have the ability to think quickly, to adapt, and to improvise when getting a job done.” In this sense success has always depended on System D, with or without government.

The American term for it is life hack, “any trick, shortcut, skill, or novelty method that increases productivity and efficiency, in all walks of life.” Whatever you call it, it describes a spirit all of humanity needs to adopt if we are to survive the coming collapse of government Ponzi schemes."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

- https://mises.org/

o

Related, highly recommended:

"The Last Exit"

"How It Really Is"

 

"We Are..."