Sunday, September 3, 2023

"The Three Wisest Words on Earth"

"The Three Wisest Words on Earth"
by Brian Maher

“I don’t know.” These are the three wisest words in the English tongue - or any other tongue. These are the words of an honest man. A man may think. A man may believe. Yet a man does not know. This ignorance - that a man does not know - is this publication’s central assumption. Nor do we believe that anyone else knows.

Imagine if politicians bowed before these three words. Imagine if market experts bowed before these three words. Imagine if the media bowed before these three words. We hazard this world would run to far saner settings.

Who Wants to Hear That? Yet the world’s three wisest words - “I don’t know” - are likewise its three most unpopular words. That is because the human being hunts for certainty. Uncertainty disturbs and unsettles him. He does not like it. Who will heed the man who concedes that he does not know? Who will follow him?

“Will we win this war, Mr. President?” “I don’t know.” ”Does God exist, Pastor?” “I don’t know.” “Does God exist, Mr. Atheist?” “I don’t know.”

Often - not always but often - a man’s certitude precisely equals his ignorance. Does the pastor know that God has existence? Does the atheist know that God has no existence? Each fellow is perfectly ignorant. Yet each is certain as steel. The concession of “I don’t know” renders them instant agnostics. And the vast majority of men do not wish to be agnostics. They wish to believe. They must believe in something - even anything.

The late G.K. Chesterton hooked onto something when he wrote: When men choose not to believe in God, they do not thereafter believe in nothing, they then become capable of believing in anything.

“Is Human-Induced Climate Emergency Real, Mr. Activist?” Above we referenced certain questions. We now raise our own: “Is human-induced climate emergency real, Mr. Activist?” Will “I don’t know” come issuing from his lips? It is extremely unlikely. That is because such a concession would disarm him instantly. All zeal, all fire would extinguish in his belly. He would cease to be a believer. Doubt would breach his perimeter… and soon overrun his position. This he will not permit.

What unseen bugaboo explains the Hawaiian wildfires? Climate emergency, shrieks the believer. What unseen bugaboo explains the tempest recently besieging Florida? Climate emergency, howls the believer. What unseen bugaboo will explain the next earthly disaster - and the one after that one? His answer is once again climate emergency. May we introduce you to one such creature?

Rage Against “Climate Deniers”: A certain Glenn C. Altschuler professes American Studies at Cornell University. He has authored an article under this title: “Climate Deniers Are Entitled to Their Own Opinions, but Not Their Own Facts.” From which: "2023 is likely to be the hottest year on record, and possibly the hottest in 100,000 years. Virtually all climate scientists agree that human activities (i.e. the release of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere) have warmed the surface of the Earth and ocean basins, and affected extreme weather events."

We are subsequently instructed in the manifold calamities of climate emergency. These include savage wildfires… droughts… hurricanes… floods. Concludes this fact-follower: "Some climate deniers, it seems clear, are willfully or invincibly ignorant. These people must not be allowed to prevent the rest of us from addressing a clear, present, extraordinarily well-documented and existential threat to the United States - and to planet Earth."

Just so. Yet is a doctoral degree in American Studies - so-called - a doctoral degree in the atmospheric sciences? By every reasonable measure it is not. Where then are his facts? Is he not merchanting an opinion himself? Does the pot not label the kettle black? Even if he held a doctorate in the atmospheric sciences… would he truly know?

True Science: Science - contrary to the claims of the Dr. Faucis of this world - is never “settled.” Scientific theory may be validated by experimentation. Yet scientific theory can never be proven. Against every scientific theory flaws relentlessly conspire. They merely await their chance. One of these flaws can render invalid an entire theory.

The scientist never truly knows. Thus science - authentic science - is the avowed enemy of belief. Politicized science… political science… is the bedfellow of belief. This Altschuler fellow claims the present year may prove the hottest in 100,000 years. Assume for the moment that the claim proves valid. Yet we must inquire: Why was Earth this hot 100,000 years ago? Where was the internal-combustion engine? And if warming yields additional warming… which yields additional warming… which yields additional warming… until Earth cooks… as the catastrophists believe… how did Earth ever cool? We request a square answer.

“Virtually All Climate Scientists Agree”: This Altschuler claims, in reminder: "Virtually all climate scientists agree that human activities (i.e. the release of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere) have warmed the surface of the Earth and ocean basins, and affected extreme weather events."

Virtually all climate scientists agree? We are informed - reliably - that “virtually all climate scientists” do not agree. Five hundred climate scientists authored a thing called the "European Climate Declaration." They addressed it to the United Nations Secretary-General. And it read: "A global network of more than 500 knowledgeable and experienced scientists and professionals in climate and related fields have… [determined that] the general-circulation models of climate on which international policy is at present founded are unfit for their purpose.

Therefore, it is cruel as well as imprudent to advocate the squandering of trillions of dollars on the basis of results from such immature models… We urge you to follow a climate policy based on sound science, realistic economics and genuine concern for those harmed by costly but unnecessary attempts at mitigation."

More: "The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming. Only very few peer-reviewed papers even go so far as to say that recent warming is chiefly anthropogenic… The world has warmed at less than half the originally predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing…"

Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover, they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2…There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent… There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm.

Yet, again, Mr. Altschuler informs us that “virtually all climate scientists agree.” Five hundred climate scientists manifestly do not agree. Are these 500 renegades correct? Are they incorrect? We lack the scientific credentialism to judge one way or the other.

We Know Only That We Don’t Know: What do we know? We know… beyond all question… only that we do not know. Yet this we do know: 500 climate scientists harpoon the “climate emergency” theory. We know that “virtually all climate scientists” do not agree. We hazard these 500 are elaborately more informed about the atmospheric sciences than a professor of American Studies at Cornell University. They have proked, prodded and probed the climate emergency theory. And they have found it riddled through with boo-boos.

Their findings are available publicly. Mr. Altschuler is free to consult them. We hazard he has not… and will not. For this fellow is a believer. Thus this fellow is a menace. That is because the world’s greatest atrocities are perpetrated by believers — believers in God, disbelievers in God, believers in the equality of man, believers in this, believers in that… Believers in “settled science.”

May the Lord deliver us from the believers among us. May He cram their mouths with three wise words: “I don’t know.”

"How It Really Is"

And here it comes...
Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 9/3/23
"Fears Of New Lockdowns Across 
America As New Variant Emerges"
The groundwork is being laid for Lockdowns 2.0 and a renewed push for vaccine mandates and mask mandates. If we shine enough light on it we can hopefully we can keep it from happening. We be too late though as many schools are already rolling out mask mandates forcing kids to wear masks during class.
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Dan, I Allegedly, "People Are Stuck Right Now"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 9/3/23
"People Are Stuck Right Now"
People are having a very difficult time right now. From business problems to personal problems, it’s only getting worse. People can’t afford houses. People can’t sell houses. People are not living to their full potential and letting themselves be in misery right now. No matter how it is in your life someone has it worse. You need to make the best of everything.
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"10 Items At Walmart That Are Great Quality And Value!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 9/3/23
"10 Items At Walmart That Are Great Quality And Value!"
In today's vlog, we are at Walmart and are showing the top 10 items that have gotten thousands of good reviews of being a Great Value, and great quality!
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Full screen recommended.
The Economic Ninja, 9/3/23
"These Foods About To Be 
In Short Supply, Prepare Now"
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Full screen recommended.
Finance Daily,  9/3/23
"20 Canned Foods You Should Buy Right Now 
For The Coming Fall Shortages!"
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Saturday, September 2, 2023

Canadian Prepper, "I Almost Died. Now I'm Getting Ready"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 9/2/23
"I Almost Died. Now I'm Getting Ready"
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"I Dream Things..."

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Cycle of Time"; "Challenge From Heaven"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Cycle of Time"
o
Full screen recommended.
2002, "Challenge From Heaven"

Beautiful...

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In the lower left corner, surrounded by blue spiral arms, is spiral galaxy M81. In the upper right corner, marked by red gas and dust clouds, is irregular galaxy M82. This stunning vista shows these two mammoth galaxies locked in gravitational combat, as they have been for the past billion years. The gravity from each galaxy dramatically affects the other during each hundred million-year pass.
Last go-round, M82's gravity likely raised density waves rippling around M81, resulting in the richness of M81's spiral arms. But M81 left M82 with violent star forming regions and colliding gas clouds so energetic the galaxy glows in X-rays. This big battle is seen from Earth through the faint glow of an Integrated Flux Nebula, a little studied complex of diffuse gas and dust clouds in our Milky Way Galaxy. In a few billion years only one galaxy will remain."
o
"When observing the stars, you should see them in another perspective. Take into account what they really are: the mothers of the atoms from which we are constituted, the atoms that constitute the mortal and thinking species that admire the sun as a god, a father or a nuclear power station. The particles that were composed at the beginning of the Universe, the atoms that were forged in the stars, the molecules that were constituted on Earth or in another place… all that is also inside us."
- Michel Cassé, French astro-physicist, "Desafio do Século XXI"

The Poet: J.R.R. Tolkien, "I Sit And Think"

"I Sit And Think"

“I sit beside the fire and think
Of all that I have seen,
Of meadow flowers and butterflies
In summers that have been.
Of yellow leaves and gossamer
In autumns that there were,
With morning mist and silver sun
And wind upon my hair.

I sit beside the fire and think
Of how the world will be
When winter comes without a spring
That I shall ever see.
For still there are so many things
That I have never seen,
In every wood, in every spring,
There is a different green.

I sit beside the fire and think
Of people long ago,
And people that will see a world
That I shall never know.
But all the while I sit and think
Of times there were before,
I listen for returning feet
And voices at the door.”

- J.R.R. Tolkien

"The Long Dark"

"The Long Dark"
by Chris Floyd

"We are in the Long Dark now. Both hope and despair are the enemies of our survival. We must live in the awareness that we might not see the light come back, without ceasing to work - with empathy, anger and knowledge - for its return.

We must be here, in the moment, experiencing its fullness (whatever its horrors or joys), yet be elsewhere, removed from the madness pouring in from every side, the avalanche of degradation. We must be here, now, but also in a future we can’t see or even imagine.

We must see that we are lost, with no clear way forward, no sureties or verities to cling to, no roots to anchor us, no structures within or without that will always keep their coalescence in the chaotic, surging flow.

We must live in discrete moments of illumination and connection, pearls hung on an almost invisible string winding through the darkness. Striving, always striving, but not expecting; striving without hope, without despair, without any certainty at all as to the outcome, good or bad.

These are the conditions of the Long Dark, this is what we have to work with, this is where we find ourselves in the brief time we have in this vast, indifferent, astounding universe. As I once wrote long ago, quoting the old hymn: “Work, for the night is coming.”

So do we counsel fatalism, a dark, defeated surrender, a retreat into bitter, curdled quietude? Not a whit. We advocate action, positive action, unstinting action, doing the only thing that human beings can do, ever: Try this, try that, try something else again; discard those approaches that don't work, that wreak havoc, that breed death and cruelty; fight against everything that would draw us down again into our own mud; expect no quarter, no lasting comfort, no true security; offer no last word, no eternal truth, but just keep stumbling, falling, careening, backsliding, crawling toward the broken light.

And what is this "broken light"? Nothing more than a metaphor for the patches of understanding – awareness, attention, knowledge, connection – that break through our darkness and stupidity for a moment now and then. A light always fractured, under threat, shifting, found then lost again, always lost. For we are creatures steeped in imperfection, in breakage and mutation, tossed up – very briefly – from the boiling, chaotic crucible of Being, itself a ragged work in progress toward unknown ends, or rather, toward no particular end at all. Why should there be an "answer" in such a reality?

What matters is what works – what pulls us from our own darkness as far as possible, for as long as possible. Yet the truth remains that "what works" is always and forever only provisional – what works now, here, might not work there, then. What saves our soul today might make us sick tomorrow.

Thus all we can do is to keep looking, working, trying to clear a little more space for the light, to let it shine on our passions and our confusions, our anger and our hopes, informing and refining them, so that we can see each other better, for a moment – until death shutters all seeing forever."

'In Ordinary Times..."

"In ordinary times we get along surprisingly well, on the whole, without ever discovering what our faith really is. If, now and again, this remote and academic problem is so unmannerly as to thrust its way into our minds, there are plenty of things we can do to drive the intruder away. We can get the car out or go to a party or to the cinema or read a detective story or have a row with a district council or write a letter to the papers about the habits of the nightjar or Shakespeare's use of nautical metaphor. Thus we build up a defense mechanism against self-questioning because, to tell the truth, we are very much afraid of ourselves."
- Dorothy L. Sayers

"US Real Estate Market"

"US Real Estate Market"
by Martin Armstrong

"The traditional forecast on real estate is always one-dimensional. Homeownership has historically been in the top 5 of surveys about what Americans most want in life. Property values have been rising despite rising high prices combined with higher mortgage rates. There is little sign on the horizon before the ECM peaks in May 2024. Analysts have been confused and caught up in this economic conundrum of the continued economic growth that has defied all their recession predictions.

Normally, housing has been one of the sectors that has been the most sensitive to interest rates. Over the past two years, mortgage rates have risen from less than 3% to more than 7%. That means that the median family today faces mortgage payments that have doubled from roughly 14% of monthly household income in 2020 to nearly 29% by mid-2023. This is the strongest rise since the economic turn on our ECM when it bottomed in 1985.65.

Nevertheless, the conundrum that has baffled traditional analysts has not led to a decline in house prices as they expected. They paused during the COVID-19 lockdowns and fell in the Blue States, which had the most draconian COVID-19 measures. Currently, housing prices during the second quarter of this year rose at an annualized pace of 15% according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.

There is a tight supply in the South, where much of the migration has taken place. I get, on average three calls a week asking if I want to sell my house here in Florida. The annual sales of property nationally have been around $2 trillion. Smart institutional investors have been shifting from public unsecured debt to private mortgages. The average person does not look at CPI numbers or GDP numbers. They look at the cost of this rising, and the confidence in the Biden Administration has been collapsing. When people no longer trust the government, they shift to the private sector. So add to that the great migration from Democratic states to the southern red states, and you will see collapsing real estate values in places like San Francisco and Chicago in comparison to even Wall Street, have been quietly moving to the Miami region. There are still buyers in the market and a shortage of supply in the Red States like Florida. Thus, sales have declined, but this appears to be more the result of the decline in supply.

Additionally, the rising inflation in materials means that the replacement cost of homes is often higher than the prices being paid, not to mention the waiting time for construction. The sheer replacement costs of housing have skyrocketed. Even pain was in short supply thanks to the COVID-19 lockdowns. This has impacted the market, and traditional analysis simply never considered that the replacement costs on preexisting houses, in many cases, are 40% to 100% higher. Add to that the shortage in labor. It was very hard to find a contractor in Florida who even was available. Most contractors I talked to were booked beyond 2024.

Newly built homes account for about one-third of active listings in 2023. This was up from an average of 13% over the two decades before pre-COVID-19. Add to all of this is the influx of foreign money looking at US property as a hedge against future wars and destabilization of the monetary system. Then we have had funds like Blackrock buying property and renting them out."
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.

The Daily "Near You?"

Padua, Italy. Thanks for stopping by!

"There Comes A Time..."

"I make no bones about being partisan for my country. I also feel no shame whatever because of it. I absolutely disagree that "great thinkers don't let that affect the thoughts". I would say exactly the opposite: someone who refuses to let love-of-country affect their thoughts is a moral cripple irrespective of their intellectual prowess. I can look dispassionately at the situation, and I have done so repeatedly. But I will never forget which nation I love and support.

We Americans have a saying: “It’s more important what you stand for than who you stand with.” I do not rely upon peer opinion to decide what is right and what is wrong. I make those decisions for myself, and even if I discover that every other human alive chose differently, that doesn’t mean I was wrong.

There comes a time in every man’s life when he has to choose sides. I have chosen my side. I am comfortable with my decision. I do not think everyone on my side is a saint, but I know that those on the other side are much, much worse.

Sometimes a man with too broad a perspective reveals himself as having no real perspective at all. A man who tries too hard to see every side may be a man who is trying to avoid choosing any side. A man who tries too hard to seek a deeper truth may be trying to hide from the truth he already knows. That is not a sign of intellectual sophistication and “great thinking”. It is a demonstration of moral degeneracy and cowardice.”
- Steven Den Beste
“Each man must for himself alone decide what is right and what is wrong, which course is patriotic and which isn't. You cannot shirk this and be a man. To decide against your conviction is to be an unqualified and unexcusable traitor, both to yourself and to your country, let men label you as they may.”
- Mark Twain

"Adventures With Danno, 9/2/23"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 9/2/23
"Stock Up On These Holiday Sales At Kroger! 
Prices Will Rise Again Soon!"
In today's vlog, we are at Kroger and are encouraging everyone to stock up on these holiday sales before the next wave of price increases on groceries!
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o
"8 Food Shortages That Will Make
 People Panic In The Coming Months"
Full screen recommended.
by Finance Daily, 9/2/23

"In today's world, the foundation of our sustenance faces increasing challenges. Golden fields and lush pastures that once represented abundance now hint at potential scarcities due to political upheavals, climatic changes, and deteriorating infrastructures. As we navigate this uncertain landscape, it's essential to be informed and vigilant about potential shortages of certain essential foods. Without delving into the specifics, there are eight significant foods that might become scarce in the near future, impacting our daily lives and broader socio-economic landscapes. These aren't just about flavors and culinary experiences but have deep-rooted cultural, historical, and economic significance. To understand the details of these endangered essentials and the reasons behind their potential scarcity, we encourage you to watch the full video."
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"There Is No Escape..."

"The precept: "Judge not, that ye be not judged" is an abdication of moral responsibility: it is a moral blank check one gives to others in exchange for a moral blank check one expects for oneself. There is no escape from the fact that men have to make choices; so long as men have to make choices, there is no escape from moral values; so long as moral values are at stake, no moral neutrality is possible. To abstain from condemning a torturer is to become an accessory to the torture and murder of his victims.The moral principle to adopt in this issue, is: "Judge, and be prepared to be judged."
- Ayn Rand

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up"

 "Weekly News Wrap-Up"
Election Rigging 2024, Lahaina Cover-Up, Deflation Destroys
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

"All the trouble Donald Trump is facing comes down to one simple thing that scares the heck out of the “Deep State” globalists. Trump could win, and win big in 2024 - period, the end. A second Trump presidency could destroy everything the so-called “Uni-party” holds dear. They are trying to stop him anyway they can. He has 91 pending felony charges spanning four separate legal cases. The “Deep State” must feel that is not a sure thing as they are bringing back masks, CV19 injections, lockdowns and mail-in ballots because they worked so well last time. Donald Trump comes out this week and calls the new Covid variants “fear mongering” and a “lunatic” ploy to rig the 2024 election. I am counting on big resistance to more Covid lies that destroyed life and liberty the last time.

What happened with the deadly Lahaina wildfires in Hawaii? That is a good question, and nobody seems to know or will allow anyone to find out. We know there are thousands unaccounted for, and many of those are children. We know police are shutting down drone traffic attempting to take video or pictures. The police are not allowing anyone to enter the burned-out town of Lahaina. We know that there is a black fabric wall 10-feet high around the perimeter of the town so nobody can see what is going on. We know the Lying Legacy Media (LLM) is silent about this, which is a lie by omission. We know we don’t know much, and we also know information is being kept from the public. The question is why?

Oil inventories are crashing, and oil prices are rising. Are we going to have a new round of inflation in the form of higher gasoline prices? Many say yes, but are we also going to have a new round of deflation at the same time? The answer is also yes, as office buildings are now selling for a fraction of the original price. Yes, prices, for what used to be top office space in destination cities like San Francisco, are imploding. What does this mean? Big trouble is already here, and there is no stopping it this time. Deflation is a financial destructive force like no other. There is much more in the 43-minute newscast."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these 
stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9/1/23.

"How It Really Is"

But not for YOU, Good Citizen...

"Russia Puts Its Longest Range Nuke-Capable Missile On Combat Duty, Nicknamed 'Satan II'"

"Russia Puts Its Longest Range Nuke-Capable Missile 
On Combat Duty, Nicknamed 'Satan II'"
By Tyler Durden

"Russia has on Friday announced its Sarmat ICBMs are on "combat duty". RIA has quoted the head of the country's space agency Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, to confirm: "the Sarmat strategic complex has been put on combat duty." The nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile system was previously touted by President Putin as being capable hitting "any target on Earth" - and is widely believed to be by far the longest-range missile in Russia's arsenal (or in the world for that matter). It's been nicknamed by NATO the "Satan II".

The Sarmat, which is in a "superheavy" class of missiles, has a short initial boost phase which gives it better ability to elude all conventional anti-missile defense systems, given this results in a much smaller window of time to track it. By design, its super long-range gives it the ability to reach targets thousands of missiles away in the United States or Europe.

According to its specifications, it's by far the heaviest missile Russia possesses - at over 200 tons - and heavier than all foreign competitors: This allows it to carry around 15 warheads, up to 750kt. (The bomb US dropped on Hiroshima was 15kt.) This would be enough to wipe out a country the size of France. It can also carry hypersonic missiles, rendering most missile defense systems ineffective.

It has reportedly been in development since 2009, and has been in testing phase for several years, some test flights of which may have failed. The Sarmat has been touted as being able to reach speeds of nearly 16,000 mph. Last year, after a successful test, Putin described: "The new complex has the highest tactical and technical characteristics and is capable of overcoming all modern means of anti-missile defense. It has no analogues in the world and won’t have for a long time to come."

"This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia’s security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country," Putin added at the time. Without doubt, the timing of Friday's announcement is also meant to spook Western leaders, as nuclear rhetoric related to the Ukraine war continues to rise, particularly in the context of Moscow having recently positioned tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory."
o
"Meanwhile, the Russians have developed a new intercontinental ballistic missile that is the most advanced in the world by a wide margin. It is called “the Sarmat”, and it is absolutely frightening"The Sarmat is a three-stage, silo-based, liquid-fuel, heavy ICBM with a reported range of 18,000 kilometers. Dubbed “Satan II” by NATO, the missile is a Russian-built replacement of the Soviet-era SS-18 “Satan” ICBM, which is reaching the end of its life cycle. The Sarmat reportedly can carry a 10-ton payload consisting of 10-plus multiple independent reentry vehicles along with penetration aids used to evade missile defenses. Moscow says the new missile can also carry several Avangard hypersonic glide vehiclesA single Sarmat can carry enough firepower to destroy an area the size of Texas."
o
RS-28 Sarmat
o
Full screen recommended.
"In the chilling broadcast the presenter also showed how the Kremlin's latest world-ending Satan 2 nuclear missile could also annihilate Britain. The warning comes as the Kremlin raised the prospect of devastating military strikes on Britain. Pro-Putin TV pundits previously threatend the use of the world ending RS-28 Sarmat missile – spouting its ability to wipe England from the map. And now raising further plans for all-out war, host Dmitry Kiselyov heralded Russia’s second option to “plunge Britain into the depths of the sea" with its “underwater robotic drone Poseidon”. In a chilling graphic he warned the missile would raise a giant tsunami wave up to 1,640ft high."

The 1,640 foot high tidal wave from a single Poseidon would destroy the entire East Coast of the United States from Maine to Florida inland as far as West Virginia. There is no possible defense against this or the missile. Do we really want to do this?

Dan, I Allegedly, "This Is A Full Blown Crisis"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 9/2/23
"This Is A Full Blown Crisis"
We just got the latest job numbers. We lost 670,000 jobs in two months. People are not getting full-time work. We just hired 1 million part-time workers. The economy is in deep trouble.
Comments below:

Friday, September 1, 2023

Canadian Prepper, "Nuclear Forces Put On High Alert, Poland Enters Belarus"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 9/1/23
"Nuclear Forces Put On High Alert,
 Poland Enters Belarus"
Comments here:
o
maxwell insight, 9/2/23
"Douglas Macgregor: 
A Massive Offensive Destroys The Lines Of Defense"
Comments here:
o
"Make Peace, You Fools!"
America’s proxy war with Russia has 
transformed Ukraine into a graveyard.
by Douglas Macgregor

"Incrementalism—the tendency to inch forward rather than to take bold steps—is usually preferred by political and military leaders in warfare, because the introduction of a few forces into action puts fewer personnel at risk, and, in theory, promises a series of improvements over time, often through attrition.

In 1950, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, led by the then-chairman General J. Lawton Collins, recommended short envelopments along the Korean coastline that were designed to gradually increase the size of the U.S. and Allied enclave known as the Pusan Perimeter. The idea was to buy time to assemble enough forces to launch a breakout on the Normandy model. But General of the Army Douglas MacArthur disagreed. He argued for a daring, deep envelopment that promised to cut off the North Korean Forces south of the 38th Parallel that were encircling Pusan.

As it turned out, MacArthur was right. Today, we know that the short envelopments were exactly what the North Korean command was prepared to defeat. In retrospect, it is certain that along with their Chinese allies, the North Koreans were familiar with the operational employment of U.S. and Allied forces during WWII. Eisenhower’s insistence on a broad front strategy that moved millions of troops in multiple armies in parallel across France and Germany to Central Europe conformed to the low-risk formula.

In light of this history, it was reasonable for the North Koreans to believe that MacArthur would never split his forces and launch an amphibious assault far behind North Korean lines. It was simply too risky. And the operational concept for Inchon was also inconsistent with the way U.S. forces were employed during the Civil War and World War I—wars won through attrition, not maneuver.

In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin opted for incrementalism in his approach to the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine. Putin committed fewer than 100,000 Russian troops to a shallow penetration attack on a broad front into a country the size of Texas. Having failed over a period of nearly 15 years to persuade Washington and the collective West of Moscow’s opposition to NATO’s advance to the east, Putin seems to have concluded that Washington and its NATO allies would prefer immediate negotiations to a destructive regional war with unknowable potential for escalation to the nuclear level.

Putin was wrong. He made a false assumption based on rational choice theory. Rational choice theory attempts to predict human behavior based on the assumption that individuals habitually make choices in economics, politics, and daily life that align with their personal best interest.

The problem with the theory is that human beings are not rational. In fact, the human mind is like a black box. It is possible to observe what goes into the black box and the decisions that come out of it, but the actual decision-making process that unfolds inside the black box is opaque.

In international relations and war, the defining features of human identity—history, geography, culture, religion, language, race, or ethnicity—must also figure prominently in any strategic assessment. For reasons of culture, experience, and innate character, MacArthur was a risk-taker. As Peter Drucker reminds his readers, culture is the foundation for human capital. These realities routinely defeat the unrealistic expectations that rational choice theory creates.

Instead of approaching the negotiating table, Washington discarded the caution, given Russia’s nuclear arsenal, that had guided previous American dealings with Moscow. Washington’s political class, with no real understanding of Russia or Eastern Europe, subscribed to the late Senator John McCain’s notion that Russia was a “gas station with nuclear weapons.”

Putin is not a risk-taker. But he abandoned incrementalism, and rapidly reoriented Russian forces to the strategic defense, an economy of force measure designed to minimize Russian losses while maximizing Ukrainian losses until Russian Forces could return to offensive operations. The Russian change in strategy has worked. Despite the unprecedented infusion of modern weaponry, cash, foreign fighters, and critical intelligence to Ukrainian forces, Washington’s proxy is shattered. Ukraine’s hospitals are brimming with broken human beings and Ukrainian dead litter the battlefield. Kiev is a heart patient on life support.

Russia’s attrition strategy has achieved remarkable success, but the success is making the conflict currently more dangerous than at any point since it began in February 2022. Why? Defensive operations do not win wars, and Washington continues to believe Ukraine can win.

Washington discounts Ukrainian losses and exaggerates Russian losses. Officers present at meetings in the Pentagon tell me that minor Ukrainian battlefield successes (that are almost instantly reversed) loom large in the discussions held in four-star headquarters, the White House, and Foggy Bottom. These reports are treated as incontrovertible evidence of inevitable Ukrainian victory. In this climate, staff officers are reluctant to highlight effective Russian military performance or the impact of Russia’s expanding military power.

The Western media reinforce these attitudes, arguing that the Russian generals and their forces are dysfunctional, mired in corruption and sloth, and that Ukraine can win if it gets more support. As a result, it is a good bet that Washington and its allies will continue to provide equipment and ammunition, though probably not in the quantities and of the quality they did in the recent past.

Warsaw, whose leadership of NATO’s anti-Russian crusade is prized in Washington, finds comfort in the Beltway’s belief in Russian military weakness. So much so, that Warsaw seems willing to risk direct confrontation with Moscow. According to French sources in Warsaw, if Ukrainian forces are driven back, “the Poles may introduce the first division this year, which will include the Poles, the Balts, and a certain number of Ukrainians.”

"20 Grocery Products To Stock Up On Before Supplies Run Out At Stores"

Full screen recommended.
"20 Grocery Products To Stock Up On
 Before Supplies Run Out At Stores"
by Epic Economist

"We are heading to the busiest shopping season of the year, and gifts will not be the only thing in high demand. Many Americans are already starting to stock up on groceries to prepare for the months ahead. As temperatures fall, getting out of our homes and taking a trip to the store may not be something we will be able to do as often. That's why replenishing our pantries during the fall will not only protect us against seasonal shortages but also help us save a lot of money down the line. Even though shoppers are likely to spend more, production levels are down for many popular items. That means you may have trouble finding Halloween pumpkins, candies like KitKat and Toblerone, Lunchables, and even breakfast staples, such as bacon.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a sugar shortage, import restrictions, and international competition all have "confectioners and food markers questioning whether they have enough supply for Halloween 2023 and the upcoming holiday season overall". Candy producers and cane sugar farmers are warning about sizable price increases. The tighter supply can be partially attributed to El Niño, a climatological phenomenon that periodically affects weather patterns. This shortage couldn’t come at a worse time, of course, since we are the most sugar-packed holidays of the year are right ahead. The USDA reported in June that U.S. raw cane sugar prices increased to 42.56 cents a pound, the highest price since January 2011. Meanwhile, Midwestern refined beet sugar, another type of sugar crop often used in confectionery, was up to 62 cents a pound. Major candy makers like Hershey and Mondelez, which produce sweets like Reese’s, Kit Kat, Toblerone, and Sour Patch Kids, acknowledged that the rising price of sugar will lead to price hikes in the next few months, while stocks will be reduced.

Since January, domestic chocolate prices rose by 14%. Major producers will continue to raise prices in the final months of 2023 due to a particularly weak year for cocoa production. "Compared to the 2021/22 cocoa year, the 2022/23 cocoa season is heading towards a supply deficit due to a reduction in production," according to the International Cocoa Organization. The price of wholesale cocoa beans hit its highest level in 13 years last month as farmers in Ghana, Nigeria, and the Ivory Coast reported troubling signs of black pod disease, an infection that causes cocoa pods to turn black and rot. Just in the Ivory Coast alone, known as the world's biggest cocoa producer, cocoa output shrunk by close to a full fifth this year. Similarly, below-average cocoa yields are predicted out of Ghana. "For most players, the impact of the very steep cocoa future price increases will only kick in from the second half of 2023," Lindt's Chief Financial Officer Martin Hug told analysts during an earnings call in June. Many big brands already hiked prices, a trend that is going to intensify right ahead of Halloween.

Today, we decided to compile a list of items that will be in short supply over the next few months so you can add them to your shopping cart the next time you go to the store. Our domestic supply chains are still under stress, and several disruptions in food production will contribute to a rise in the number of out-of-stock products at your local supermarket this fall. We hope this list serves as a guide for you to plan your autumn and winter purchases in the coming weeks and months. Many other essential items can also disappear from store shelves this year, and we will keep track of the coming shortages for you, so stay tuned with our channel!"
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"Economic Hell Slams Americans; Financial End Game As People Can't Pay Their Bills; Prices Soaring"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/1/23
"Economic Hell Slams Americans; Financial End Game
 As People Can't Pay Their Bills; Prices Soaring"
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Musical Interlude: 2002, " A Gift of Life"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "A Gift of Life"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"A star cluster around 2 million years young surrounded by natal clouds of dust and glowing gas, M16 is also known as The Eagle Nebula. This beautifully detailed image of the region adopts the colorful Hubble palette and includes cosmic sculptures made famous in Hubble Space Telescope close-ups of the starforming complex.
Described as elephant trunks or Pillars of Creation, dense, dusty columns rising near the center are light-years in length but are gravitationally contracting to form stars. Energetic radiation from the cluster stars erodes material near the tips, eventually exposing the embedded new stars. Extending from the ridge of bright emission left of center is another dusty starforming column known as the Fairy of Eagle Nebula. M16 lies about 7,000 light-years away, an easy target for binoculars or small telescopes in a nebula rich part of the sky toward the split constellation Serpens Cauda (the tail of the snake)."

"Whatever Your Fate Is..."

“Whatever your fate is, whatever the hell happens, you say, “This is what I need.” It may look like a wreck, but go at it as though it were an opportunity, a challenge. If you bring love to that moment - not discouragement - you will find the strength there. Any disaster you can survive is an improvement in your character, your stature, and your life. What a privilege! This is when the spontaneity of your own nature will have a chance to flow. Then, when looking back at your life, you will see that the moments which seemed to be great failures, followed by wreckage, were the incidents that shaped the life you have now. You’ll see this is really true. Nothing can happen to you that is not positive. Even though it looks and feels at the moment like a negative crisis, it is not. The crisis throws you back, and when you are required to exhibit strength, it comes.”
~ Joseph Campbell

"The 'Titanic' Analogy You Haven't Heard: Passively Accepting Oblivion"

"The 'Titanic' Analogy You Haven't Heard: 
Passively Accepting Oblivion"
by Charles Hugh Smith

You've undoubtedly heard rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as an analogy for the futility of approving policy tweaks to address systemic crises. I've used the Titanic as an anology to explain the fragility of our financial system and the "glancing blow" of the pandemic:


But there's a powerful analogy you haven't heard before. To understand the analogy, we first need to recap the tragedy's basic set-up.

On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly calm night. In the early hours of April 15, the great ship broke in half and sank, ending the lives of the majority of its passengers and crew. Of the 2,208 passengers and crew onboard, 1,503 perished and 705 survived. The lifeboats had a maximum capacity of 1,178, so some 475 people died unnecessarily. Passengers of the Titanic (Wikipedia)

The initial complacency of the passengers and crew after the collision is another source of analogies relating to humanity's near-infinite capacity for denial. The class structure of the era was enforced by the authorities - the ship's officers. As the situation grew visibly threatening, the First Class passengers were herded into the remaining lifeboats while the steerage/Third Class passengers - many of them immigrants - were mostly kept below decks. Officers were instructed to enforce this class hierarchy with their revolvers.

Two-thirds of all passengers died, but the losses were not evenly distributed: 39% of First Class passengers perished, 58% of Second Class passengers lost their lives and 76% of Third Class passengers did not survive.

Rudimentary calculations by the ship's designer, who was on board to oversee the maiden voyage, revealed the truth to the officers: the ship would sink and there was no way to stop it. The ship was designed to survive four watertight compartments being compromised, and could likely stay afloat if five were opened to the sea, but not if six compartments were flooded. Water would inevitably spill over into adjacent compartments in a domino-like fashion until the ship sank.

What did the authorities do with this knowledge? Stripped of niceties, they passively accepted oblivion as the outcome and devoted their resources to enforcing the class hierarchy and the era's gender chivalry: 80% of male passengers perished, 25% of female passengers lost their lives. The loading of passengers into lifeboats was so poorly managed that only 60% of the lifeboat capacity was filled.

What if the officers had boldly accepted the inevitability of the ship sinking early on and devised a plan to minimize the loss of life? It would not have takes any extraordinary leap of creativity to organize the crew and passenger volunteers to strip the ship of everything that floated - wooden deck chairs, etc. - and lash them together into rafts. Given the calm seas that night and the freezing water, just keeping people above water would have been enough.

Rather than promote the absurd charade that the ship was fine, just fine, when time was of the essence, the authorities could have rounded up the women and children and filled every seat on lifeboats. Of the 1,030 people who could not be placed in a lifeboat, 890 were crew members, including about 25 women. The crew members were almost all in the prime of life. If anyone could survive several hours on a partially-submerged raft, it would have been the crew. (The first rescue ship arrived about two hours after the Titanic sank.)

Would this hurried effort to save everyone on board have succeeded? At a minimum, it would have saved an additional 475 souls via a careful loading of the lifeboats to capacity, and if the makeshift rafts had offered any meaningful flotation at all, many more lives would have been saved. Rather than devote resources to maintaining the pretense of safety and order, what if the ship's leaders had focused their response around answering a simple question: what was needed for people to survive a freezing night once the lifeboats were filled and the ship sank?

I think you see the analogy to the present. Our leadership, such as it is, is devoting resources to maintaining the absurd pretense that everything will magically re-set to September 2019 if we just print enough money and bail out the financial Aristocracy.

Whether we realize it or not, we're responding with passive acceptance of oblivion. The economy and social order were precariously fragile before the pandemic, and now the fragilities are unraveling. We need to start thinking beyond pretense and PR."
Full screen recommended.

The Daily "Near You?"

Alexander City, Alabama, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Inflation Is Coming Back, So Are Food Shortages, Here's What Comes Next"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 9/1/23
"Inflation Is Coming Back, So Are Food Shortages,
 Here's What Comes Next"
The economy last year was severe for food shortages, with products like eggs and infant formula particularly heavily impacted. Unfortunately, 2023 could see some food shortages of its own. Here we are commemorating the failure of the inflation reduction Act one year ago"
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Must View! "Dr. David Martin: Don't Fear the Coming New Covid Lockdowns"

London Real, 9/1/23
"Dr. David Martin: Don't Fear 
the Coming New Covid Lockdowns"
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"1930s USA - Fascinating Street Scenes of Vintage America [Colorized]"

Full screen recommended.
"1930s USA - 
Fascinating Street Scenes of Vintage America [Colorized]"

"Step back in time with us as we unveil a mesmerizing journey through 1930s America like you've never seen before! While the Dustbowl was heating up in the southwest, the country as a whole was fighting through the Great Depression. All the while, Americans were living their day-to-day lives, and getting on as best as they could.

In this captivating video, we've meticulously colorized a collection of stunning photographs that capture the essence of a tumultuous yet resilient period in American history. From bustling cityscapes to serene countryside vistas, witness the contrast between hardship and hope that defined an entire generation.

Discover the intricate details of everyday life as we explore the highways and byways of the past, complete with corner gas stations, storefronts, and bustling city streets. Journey through snapshots of the stunning architecture that emerged during this era, from Art Deco skyscrapers to quaint suburban homes. Each frame is a window into a world where innovation and creativity thrived despite adversity.

Join us on this mesmerizing visual journey, as we honor the legacy of the past and celebrate the indomitable spirit of the American people. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity to experience the 1930s in an entirely new light. Whether you are a history enthusiast, a lover of vintage aesthetics, or simply curious about the past, this video offers an immersive visual experience that will evoke a sense of nostalgia and leave you with a renewed appreciation for the beauty of the human experience."
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