Tuesday, August 29, 2023

John Wilder, "Rigging The Game"

"Rigging The Game"
By John Wilder

"It’s a strange, new world. During my childhood, there was an active focus on one concept: we’re all humans, regardless of race. We should all be treated the same, and have the same rules. Sure, there were programs like affirmative action, but the primary impact of those was (for the most part) in making sure that minority candidates were considered for jobs. The rule (generally) remained that the most qualified person got the job. Meritocracy reigned.

I won’t pick the date this changed, because it’s been a continuum, a bit here, a bit there. But if you had seen the following headline in 1980 or 1990, I think the first thought of people would have been, “How can that even be legal?”
The idea wasn’t just at Bank of America®, it’s was also at Wells Fargo™, too, you can look it up. The concept is that companies attempting to get their ESG (link to my previous post on this monstrosity here) score up are setting up programs like that. To be clear, any loan by any bank that’s not rooted in the ability of the borrower to repay is awful, and immoral. It’s also shenanigans like this that led directly to the 2008 housing bubble and Great Recession. In a related story, I wonder if Pelosi shorted them yet?

If a country is searching for a solid economy, this isn’t it. If a country is looking to make actual equality the measure, this also isn’t it. If it were just this, it would just be (outside of being illegal) just a limited number of bad business decisions, but it’s not limited to just this. How about electric cars? I mean, I’m as much into having children dig for toxic cobalt in the Congo so rich people in California can have electric cars and feel smug about it as the next person, but to create a tax incentive? Seems a bit like we’re rubbing it in.

Not to mention reparations. It’s odd that the people who want to abolish debt for people that borrowed money are also the ones that want to pay people for things that never happened to them. I guarantee that, no matter how much is offered it won’t be accepted. Why? It will never be enough. Ever. Another symptom of the Kleptocracy.

What about the Biden family themselves? Is their economy wrecked like they’ve wrecked the nation? No. Joe went from $0 net worth in 2015 to $9,000,000 (latest info I could find) today. How’d he do that? I’m sure he cut back on Starbucks®. According to reports, Hunter asked a donor to set up a job for his “pled guilty to a felony for $100,000 credit card fraud for makeup” niece.
Click image for larger size and vomit bag.
They agreed to hire this felon for $85,000 a year. She refused. She wanted no less than $180,000. To be fair, from the pictures it does look like she needs that much makeup.

Again, that’s small potatoes, when looking at the billions that have already been looted from the open checkbook that is the Ukraine.

And yet, there’s more! I’ll skip over the massive payments for illegal aliens to play computer games and stay in hotels at taxpayer expense while actual Americans are homeless and face bankruptcy to medical bills inflated by donor companies like Pfizer®. I’m sure that doesn’t make anyone mad.

In point of fact, what we are seeing is the looting of an economy. Our economy. I think it’s been going on for years, but the looting wasn’t so visible because it was papered over, literally. After the 2008 Great Recession, there wasn’t really any attempt to make the economy better, rather, the idea was to just keep printing money – Qualitative Easing is what they called, it, which was a fancy way to say that the money would be printed and buy up the weakest assets of the companies that the Fed® had desired to support. Bank of America™ and Wells Fargo© were among them.

COVID-19 was the lynchpin, though. As the tide receded and undulated, we could finally see who didn’t have a swimsuit on. It turned out, it was most of the economy. Now, inflation. Oddly, it gets even worse. Since 1988, the United States has paid $13 trillion in interest to...use its own currency – the government needs currency, the Treasury prints bonds, the Fed® creates cash, the United States owes interest and pays fees to the Fed™ member banks. That’s weird, because the United States used to just issue its own cash. Without debt. Sure, if you print too much, that causes inflation.

Oh. I see we’re soaking in inflation. And the Fed® actively plans for inflation as a part of the business plan. The looting can’t continue forever. And that’s a good thing. This made-up economy filled with economic nonsense that, at times, makes Lenin look like an economic genius, has a time limit. Merit will return, just as the "Gods of the Copybook Headings" have always predicted. There can be no other outcome."

Monday, August 28, 2023

"Heads Up: The Next 365 Days Of Systems Collapse"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 8/28/23
"Heads Up: 
The Next 365 Days Of Systems Collapse"
"Talking about what to do when the SHTF with Mike Shelby, a former intelligence NCO and contractor with nearly a decade of defense and intelligence service."
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Jeremiah Babe, "This Is About To Get Really Bad"

Jeremiah Babe, 8/28/23
"This Is About To Get Really Bad"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Gov't Mule, "Forevermore"

Gov't Mule, "Forevermore"
Singer Warren Haynes

Some songs you just feel in your soul...

Musical Interlude: Neil H, "Moonpath"

Neil H, "Moonpath"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Like delicate cosmic petals, these clouds of interstellar dust and gas have blossomed 1,300 light-years away in the fertile star fields of the constellation Cepheus. Sometimes called the Iris Nebula and dutifully cataloged as NGC 7023 this is not the only nebula in the sky to evoke the imagery of flowers. Still, this remarkable image shows off the Iris Nebula's range of colors and symmetries in impressive detail. Within the Iris, dusty nebular material surrounds a hot, young star.
The dominant color of the brighter reflection nebula is blue, characteristic of dust grains reflecting starlight. Central filaments of the dusty clouds glow with a faint reddish photoluminesence as some dust grains effectively convert the star's invisible ultraviolet radiation to visible red light. Infrared observations indicate that this nebula may contain complex carbon molecules known as PAHs. The bright blue portion of the Iris Nebula is about six light-years across.”

"I Would Rather Have..."

"When a bull is being lead to the slaughter, it still hopes to break loose and trample its butchers. Other bulls have not been able to pass on the knowledge that this never happens and that from the slaughterhouse there is no way back to the herd. But in human society there is a continuous exchange of experience. I have never heard of a man who broke away and fled while being led to his execution. It is even thought to be a special form of courage if a man about to be executed refuses to be blindfolded and dies with his eyes open. But I would rather have the bull with his blind rage, the stubborn beast who doesn't weigh his chances of survival with the prudent dull-wittedness of man, and doesn't know the despicable feeling of despair."
- Nadezhda Mandelstam

The Poet: David Wagoner, "Getting There"

"Getting There"

"You take a final step and, look, suddenly
You're there. You've arrived
At the one place all your drudgery was aimed for:
This common ground
Where you stretch out, pressing your cheek to sandstone.

What did you want to be? 
You'll remember soon.
You feel like tinder under a burning glass,
A luminous point of change.
The sky is pulsing against the cracked horizon,
Holding it firm till the arrival of stars
In time with your heartbeats.
Like wind etching rock, you've made a lasting impression
On the self you were,
By having come all this way through all this welter
Under your own power,
Though your traces on a map would make an unpromising
Meandering lifeline.

What have you learned so far? You'll find out later,
Telling it haltingly like a dream,
That lost traveler's dream under the last hill
Where through the night you'll take your time out of mind
To unburden yourself
Of elements along elementary paths
By the break of morning.

You've earned this worn-down, hard, incredible sight
Called Here and Now.
Now, what you make of it means everything,
Means starting over:
The life in your hands is neither here nor there
But getting there,
So you're standing again and breathing, beginning another
Journey without regret
Forever, being your own unpeaceable kingdom,
The end of endings."

~ David Wagoner

"Why Dogs Live Less Than Humans"

"Why Dogs Live Less Than Humans"
by Bill Overton

"Here's the surprising response from a 6-year-old. Being a veterinarian, I had been called to examine a ten-year-old Irish Wolfhound named Belker. The dog's owners, Ron, his wife Lisa, and their little Shane, were very attached to Belker, and were expecting a miracle. I examined Belker and found that he was dying of cancer. I told the family that we couldn't do anything for Belker, and I offered to perform the euthanasia procedure for the old dog at his house.

While we were making arrangements, Ron and Lisa told me they thought it would be good for six-year-old Shane to observe the procedure. They felt as if Shane could learn something from the experience. The next day, I felt the familiar capture in my throat as Belker's family surrounded him. Shane seemed so calm, petting the old dog for the last time, that I wondered if he understood what was going on. Within minutes, Belker escaped peacefully.

The boy seemed to accept Belker's transition without any difficulty or confusion. We sat together for a while after Belker's death, wondering aloud about the sad fact that dog lives are shorter than human lives. Shane, who had been listening silently, said, "I know why." Startled, we all turned to him. What came out of his mouth afterwards surprised me. I had never heard a more comforting explanation. It has changed the way I try to live.

He said, "People are born so they can learn to live a good life, like loving everyone all the time and being kind, right?" The six-year-old boy continued, "Well, dogs already know how to do it, so they don't have to stay as long as we do."
Live simply.
Love generously.
Care deeply.
Speak kindly.

Remember, if a dog were the teacher you would learn things like:

• When your loved ones return home, always run to greet them.
• Never miss the opportunity to go for a walk.
• Allow the experience of fresh air and wind on the face to be pure ecstasy.
• Take naps.
• Stretch before getting up.
• Running, playing and playing daily.
• Thrive on attention and let people touch you.
• Avoid biting when a simple growl will do.
• On warm days, stop to lie on your back on the lawn.
• On hot days, drink plenty of water and lie down under a shaded tree.
• When you are happy, dance and move your whole body.
• Delight in the simple joy of a long walk.
• Be faithful.
• Never pretend to be something you are not.
• If what you want is buried, dig until you find it.
• When someone is having a bad day, be quiet, sit nearby, and nuzzle gently.

That's the secret of happiness we can learn from a good dog.”

The Daily "Near You?"

Medell­in, Colombia. Thanks for stopping by!

"What You Know..."

"Reputation is what other people know about you.
Honor is what you know about yourself."
- Lois McMaster

"U.S. Admits Forever War Is The Goal In Ukraine"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 8/28/23
"U.S. Admits Forever War Is The Goal In Ukraine"
"U.S. officials now admit Ukraine can't possibly win the war but that's never been the plan. The plan all along is to use every last Ukrainian as a proxy to degrade Russia's military while enriching America's defense contractors. Only one part of the plan has worked."
Comments here:

"The Outcome of War with Russia"

"The Outcome of War with Russia"
by Jeff Thomas

"Much has been said and is being said regarding the proxy war between the US and Russia. Those of us in the West rely primarily on news reports. Virtually all news that we see in the media was created by one of three agencies – Associated Press, Reuters, and, to a lesser degree, AFP. All three companies are owned by the same parent companies, who, in turn, own most of the Western corporatist structure, and, not surprisingly, the reports that they distribute to the media are boilerplate.

As such, the TV news tends to be uniform, and whenever a new catch-phrase pops up, such as "extreme right activists" or "January sixth insurrection," it tends to appear in all major media on the very same day and is then used ubiquitously. We, therefore, receive only one "truth," and we’re left to either accept it or comb the internet for alternate possibilities. In no case is this truer than the present proxy war between the US and Russia in Ukraine. The news we receive is consistent and yet quite false. And so, the average person can be forgiven if he’s struggling to figure out how this will all play out. Who would actually win such a war?

For eighteen months, the viewer has been assured that Mister Putin is incompetent and is hated by his people, that the Russian military is disorganized and about to quit, and, on any given day, Ukraine is making progress in beating back Russia and will soon win. If this is all true, victory would seem to be a slam-dunk. All that’s necessary is yet another tranche of, say, twenty billion dollars.

Yet, if we do our homework, we find that Russia is not only not failing, it’s expanding its might rapidly. Its troops are better armed, better equipped, better trained, better supplied, better commanded, and their munitions are more advanced than their Western counterparts.

But how is this possible? How can so little have been achieved when American money is being thrown at the problem at a level that exceeds that of a World War? Well, the answer to that question may also be the answer to the question of the war’s outcome. But first, let’s step back and run through a brief history of the US Military Industrial Complex (MIC).

After World War II, the MIC complained to the US government that it was dramatically downsizing production (and therefore revenue) due to a troubling lack of warfare. It argued that as the world’s new military leader, the US must maintain warfare in order to maintain its new hegemony. The administration agreed, especially as MIC lobbyists were quite prepared to kick back a generous portion of profits to both political parties if they played ball.

The Korean War created the template for the new relationship. After it was over, the MIC and the US government were already looking for the next conflict in order to keep production ongoing. In doing so, the concept of a perma-war became more important than any actual political need for war. Eventually, the US got the hang of it with the Middle East wars – always open a new theatre before closing an existing one.

Along the way, the MIC expanded to supply not only bombs, rifles, helmets, etc., but toothbrushes, socks, and rations. Once they’d taken on any and all products related to an army, they began to supply the army itself – soldiers on contract. Falling recruitment was no longer a problem, as the numbers could be made up by taking on more contract soldiers. (As a side issue, the reader may wish to recall what happened to ancient Rome when they went the route of an army of mercenaries.)

To further revenue, the MIC also created a policy to take on retiring senior military staff as "advisors." These advisors can be seen on the evening news with regularity. Whenever a retired general is being asked what his opinion of a given US military adventure is, he can be counted on to assure that what’s needed is greater military expenditure.

Along the way, in 1993, the Pentagon urged the existing 51 defense contractors to consolidate into just five, essentially eliminating competition. Although MIC prices were already exorbitant, that one move sent prices off the charts, as the five companies then had a monopoly. As an example, Raytheon, the sole supplier of Stinger missiles, was charging the US government $25,000 per missile – a whopping price – but today, the price for one such missile is $400,000.


Not surprising, then, that with such markups on all goods provided by the MIC, the US spends more on "defense" than the next ten countries combined. Therefore, the cost of fighting the same war costs the US many times what it would cost the enemy.

This leads us to a principle that I have regarding war: "In warfare, the loser is likely to be the country that goes broke first." And here we come to the critical point of variance with regard to war with Russia.

For decades, the US has been fighting "sport wars" – mini wars against small countries that the US has been certain to win, and the game has gone well. The wars don’t achieve much; in fact, they have no end object – no actual conquest – only the continuation of warfare itself and the flow of revenue to the MIC.

But what happens when the US goes up against another world power – one that has military providers that compete for business, providing more up-to-date armaments and supplying them for a fraction of the cost; one that’s set up to manufacture them at a far more quickly than the US MIC?

US war promoters such as Victoria Nuland or John Bolton have never experienced a world war; they’ve only experienced sport wars in which the US controlled the entire show. In their own words, they clearly assume that a war with a major power is simply bigger – more exciting.

What they fail to understand is that the major power is not limited to funding, as a small country would be. Further, the opponent is paying far less for material than the US. Throughout history, empires have failed due to the fact that nothing costs more than warfare.

In addition, the US is, for all practical purposes, broke. It’s now the most deeply indebted country in the world and is only able to continue trade until the rest of the world ceases to accept further US debt. The petrodollar has reached its end, and the reserve currency status is soon to follow.

Considering all of the above, what’s the outcome of a war with Russia likely to be? Well, for any Westerner who’s diligent about planning his personal future, a factor for his consideration might be what his world will look like if Russia emerges victorious.

Editor’s Note: The most dangerous economic experiment since communism has some of America’s wealthiest people sounding the alarm bells. First, America’s biggest creditors drastically reduced their purchases of the US Treasury bonds that fund the US government’s massive deficit spending habit. Now, some of the brightest financial minds in America say they wouldn’t touch the US dollar either. Our investigation into the matter reveals billionaires are quickly buying up a special type of asset that tends to explode in value during times like these.

Adventures With Danno, And Elsewhere 8/28/23

 

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 8/28/23
"Sam's Club Adventure! 
Shopping For Meat And Medicine!"
In today's vlog, we are at Sam's Club, and we are taking you along with us as we shop for different meats and over the counter medicines. We will check out all the different prices and see which ways we can save money and seek out the best deals!
Comments here:
o
Meanwhile, elsewhere...
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 8/28/23
"Russian Typical (24 Hour) Supermarket Tour: Tvoy Dom"
What does a Russian typical supermarket look like? Let's walk together in a 24 hour per day Russian typical supermarket. Tvoy Dom is a supermarket on a whole different level, with over 112,000 sq meters of space. 1 ruble = 0.011 US dollars.
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Comments?

Bill Bonner, "Old Growth Government"

"Old Growth Government"
What happens to the state when the cycle turns...and the rot sets in...
by Bill Bonner

Poitou, France - "It is that time of year. We have just spent the summer with children and grandchildren. Young children are cute. Teenagers are more challenging. And thus are parents prepared…for this time of the year. A faint tear forms in mother’s eye as she helps the freshman unpack in his new dorm room, knowing that an important chapter in her life has come to a close. But there’s a feeling of relief too…and satisfaction. She has done her best. Now, life itself…the outer world…must take over. Her child will be bent by it, just as we all are, but maybe into a better shape.

The heat dome over the south of France cracked last Friday. It was 100 degrees here on Thursday. So, we waited in Normandy. Since then, the temperatures have fallen to seasonally normal levels. There was a high of 72 yesterday. Today’s high will be only 68.

Summer’s over. The children have gone home. The grandchildren are packing their books and heading back to school. A misty rain comes down. And the leaves hang sadly on the trees; they’ve all been given the death sentence.

Love Thy Fate" We do not regret these things. ‘Amor Fati’ is our motto. We accept that there are booms and busts…births and deaths…ups and downs. Were there no downs, there would be no ups. It is only the relative motion that gives it meaning; it is the looming grave that makes life above ground so jolly. There seem to be cycles to just about everything.

Last week, we looked at MMT, Modern Monetary Theory. The idea of it is looney, that ‘money’ comes from the government, which can ‘print’ as much as it wants. This money can be used to stall, delay and prevent the downswings – in markets…in economies…and even in our lives. Two eminences of the MMT genre, Tymoigne and Wray, tell us that a government that can borrow in its own currency:"…has an unlimited capacity to pay for the things it wishes to purchase and to fulfill promised future payments, and has an unlimited ability to provide funds to the other sectors. … monetarily sovereign governments are always solvent, and can afford to buy anything for sale in their domestic unit of account even though they may face inflationary and political constraints."

Yes. That’s right. They can ‘print’ all the damned money they want. Until they can’t.

Spend, Spend, Spend…That is, they can spend, spend, spend…until they “face inflationary constraints” and have to stop. Which is to say, the whole scam comes to an end, just like all flim-flams and bezzles. Yes, bamboozles have life cycles too. They emerge like lion cubs, cute and cuddly. But as they age they grow fangs and claws – don’t try to keep one as a pet.

There is a well-known cycle in business. A company begins by looking outward…towards the customer. It develops a product. It sells the product. It looks to the customer to make sure the product is well received. It checks the sales figures, the profit margins, the customer feedback. It cuts costs – aiming to deliver the product at the lowest possible price. It checks out the competition, too, trying to stay ahead.

As it ages, however, its eyes turn inward. The chief engineer has photos of his grandchildren on the cubicle wall. He wonders if his daughter-in-law is giving them the attention they need. The manager of the sales team, meanwhile, has hired a data specialist…who has turned to a computer whiz to develop new algorithms for studying the figures. They’re scheduling a meeting now, once a week – via zoom – to track the development of this new software.

The legal and recruiting offices, meanwhile, have their hands full. The company implemented a policy of mandatory diversity training for all its managers, but there has been some pushback. Some employees feel the company is becoming too ‘woke.’ It was bad enough, they believe, to hand the rainbow flag out in front of the headquarters on “Pride Day.” But now, a group of lesbians with orange hair has taken over in the ‘human resource’ office and “the new people have ‘diversity hire’ stamped all over them.”

Old Growth Government: The CEO has his eyes stuck on the stock price. Some wonder what will happen when he retires. Others think he should have retired years ago; ‘he doesn’t understand how times have changed,’ they say.

In the way of the world, huge old trees get worn down by age, worms, bugs, bores, drought, and storms. They fall. And the new trees flourish. So too, like a holy man preceded by a street sweeper, the death of a business is foretold by disability. The old company’s employees – so concerned with their own hurts and status – forget to notice the customer; a rival steals a march on them. But what happens to an old government? Does it not look inward? Do its deciders and managers not suffer the decrepitude of age? What about the rich men north of Richmond? Do they not forget all about the common people…the taxpayers…the citizens? What is the life-cycle of a government? Into what shape is it bent? More to come…"

"How It Really Is"

 

Jim Kunstler, "All Aboard the Impeachment Express"

Click image for larger size.
"All Aboard the Impeachment Express"
by Jim Kunstler

“While [AG Merrick] Garland seems incapable of imagining any crime involving the president, he has made a conclusive - if unintended - case for an impeachment inquiry.” - Jonathan Turley

"Beach boy “Joe Biden” will be well-rested when the plan for his impeachment rolls out after Labor Day. Just because you’re not hearing any news about it now, with the county fairs on all over the USA, and the pols busy scarfing corn-dogs and kissing heifers, doesn’t mean that the key players aren’t confabbing among themselves. Hey, have you noticed, you’re hardly hearing about anything else these dwindling days of summer, either? Got any idea what’s up with that war in Ukraine? Of course you don’t.

A preview for you then: Rep James Comer’s House Oversight Committee has already assembled a bundle of evidence tracking the exact ways and means of how the Biden family’s global bribery operation worked. That includes the bank records, the emails and deal memos, the chronology of meetings, the FBI documents, the phone recordings, the photos of “JB” schmoozing with Hunter’s “clients,” and the famous video of “Joe Biden” bragging onstage at the Council on Foreign Relations about how he strong-armed Ukraine President Poroshenko into firing General Prosecutor Viktor Shokin.

Next, Speaker McCarthy has to form an actual impeachment inquiry committee. (If he tries to demur, there could be a new Speaker of the House in short order.) That committee will entertain witnesses, including figures in Justice Department who have been reluctant to discuss these matters previously. This might entail a Part B of the inquiry: the blatant obstructions of justice by DOJ officials in the long-running case on various charges against Hunter Biden, as supervised by federal attorney in Delaware, now Special Counsel, David Weiss. Mr. Weiss dawdled so strenuously for five years that he let the statute of limitations run out on the major tax evasion charges, while he ignored all the allegations of Hunter’s FARA violations in seeking money from officials of many foreign governments.

There’s reason to believe that botching that case was well-coordinated with help from the Biden family DOJ “mole,” one Alexander S. Mackler, who had served as Senator Joe Biden’s press secretary in 2007-08, was campaign manager in 2010 for the Senator’s son, Beau Biden (deceased 2015), when he ran for Delaware Attorney General, and from 2014-16 was Deputy Counsel to Veep Joe Biden. Mr. Mackler was later inserted into the Delaware US attorney’s office as a prosecutor under David Weiss, from August 2016 to May 2019, while Hunter B’s case was under investigation. Did he function as the Bidens’ consigliere? Mr. Mackler was logged-in as a White House visitor five times after “Joe Biden” came to occupy it in 2021. Mr. Mackler is alleged to be currently serving as Chief Deputy Attorney General of Delaware (since 2019), but his name has been scrubbed by the agency’s website. See for yourself: https://attorneygeneral.delaware.gov

Perhaps all this will be reserved for the separate impeachments of Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Wray. Bribery, racketeering, and treason may be enough for a presidential impeachment. Would the gravity of an impeachment proceeding override witnesses’ refusal to testify on the grounds of “an ongoing investigation?” How could it not, if those investigations are themselves a subject of the inquiry? Would the mainstream news media ignore the spectacle to suppress it? They can try, and then maybe we’ll get a test of how irrelevant they’ve become. The House will surely televise the proceedings. There are too many other alt.channels that will broadcast impeachment hearings, probably led by X (formerly Twitter).

All of which raises the question: will “Joe Biden” really endure this ordeal? Or will the next thirty days be his window for exiting the scene? He is, after all, a mere prop in a show directed by others. Those others would include Barack Obama, who could easily be dragged into an inquiry about the Biden family’s criminal adventures in global money-grubbbing when Joe was Veep. How is it possible that President Obama didn’t know what the Bidens were up to? (The Intel Community can’t be that incompetent.) You see how ugly this thing could get?

So far, the cabal running the “Joe Biden” show has avoided nuclear war as a distraction from what is hands-down the worst scandal in American history, way worse than Watergate. The four absurd Trump prosecutions are all ginned-up now, but may have peaked for distraction power — months of dull procedural wrangling lie ahead. An awful lot of rumors are pinging around lately about a new Covid-19 operation to be sprung on the public any day, with the usual kit of masks, lockdowns, and mandatory vaccinations. Do you really think Americans will comply with another round of this malicious nonsense? Fuggeddabowdit."

Dan, I Allegedly, "This Will Pop the Bubble"

Fill screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 8/28/23
"This Will Pop the Bubble"
"There is a dramatic shift in the real estate industry. We are seeing more and more Airbnb’s hit the market. These homes will be sold at a reduced price. There are more layoffs than people expected, and the economy is awaiting the fed's decision on if we’re going to go with her interest rate increase."
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"The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble"
By Charles Hugh Smith

"This is how bubbles collapse: the "vital few" 4% sell at whatever the market will bear, pushing prices down, and the 64% awaken to the rapidly narrowing window for locking in bubble capital gains. Here's how we can tell if a speculative bubble is a bubble: everyone says it isn't a bubble - the market has reached a "permanently high plateau" because valuations are now fairly priced, etc.

Housing globally is in a bubble (See chart below) which we're constantly assured isn't a bubble. As I discussed yesterday ( The Problem Isn't a Housing Shortage, It's the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy), this bubble is fundamentally an artifact of central bank and government policies that enrich the already-rich, who were incentivized to outbid each other with low-cost credit to snap up "investment properties" with their "surplus capital" that generate more income and capital gains that cash, which until recently was "trash" due to near-zero savings yields.
Many wealthy families collect multiple properties via inheritance, as second (vacation) homes or as long-term rentals. This hoarding is (as I explained) the only possible result of policies that asymmetrically distribute credit, and thus income and capital gains, to the already-wealthy rather than to the not-yet-wealthy. This policy-driven hoarding / concentration of housing in the top 10% is one factor driving rents higher due to artificial scarcity--a scarcity created by central bank and government policies, not the "market."

(Regulations and bureaucratic friction that push the cost of new constriction to the moon are another factor, but that's a topic for another post. I also want to stipulate that I am not talking about people of modest means who acquired rental properties by scrimping and saving their earned income and making sacrifices for decades--a strategy that is part of Self-Reliance; I'm talking about the already-wealthy who are seeking to "maximize returns" on their unearned "surplus capital.")

A systemic driver of this bidding war for rental properties is the "AirBnB" model of monetizing individual properties to compete with hotels and resorts for lodging. This model is called short-term vacation rentals (STVR), and the already-rich have been pouring their wealth into STVRs for the past 15 years.
This has led to an artificial scarcity of housing in popular tourist destinations. It's not uncommon to visit tourist-magnet cities and see entire buildings with only a few lights on, as many units are owned by the wealthy and left empty, as rents are not as important as having a safe place to "park surplus capital." Thousands of other units have been pulled from the long-term rental market to reap the higher returns of STVRs.

Many cities and locales are finally pushing back against the housing hoarding of the global wealthy, taxing empty units and limiting and/or licensing STVRs.

As I explained yesterday, the flood of post-pandemic price-insensitive "revenge spending" pushed tourist lodging rates to the moon as resorts and STVRs competed on exploiting price-insensitive tourists.

What's often forgotten about real estate is prices are set on the margin. The Pareto Distribution is a handy tool for understanding how an entire neighborhood's home prices are re-set by a mere handful of sales.

The Pareto Distribution is often summarized as the 80/20 Rule. The 80/20 rule can be distilled down to 80% of 80% and 20% of 20% to the 64/4 Rule: the "vital few" 4% exert outsized influence over the 64% mass. So 4% of sales can re-set the valuation of 64% of all neighboring houses.

So 40 houses selling for around $450,000 will re-set the valuation of 1,000 nearby homes from $800,000 to $450,000. This is why an apparently modest number of fire sales of money-losing STVRs will dissolve the floor under bubble valuations.

The STVR bubble was entirely an artifact of 1) historically absurdly low mortgage rates and 2) post-pandemic price-insensitive "revenge spending". Both are over. There is no way the bottom 90% can afford homes at today's bubble valuations, so the pool of buyers is limited to the top 10% already-wealthy, whose appetite for owning "surplus capital" rentals vanishes once the lofty weekly rates and low vacancies reverse into high vacancies and collapsing rental rates.
The bottom 90% have tapped out their pandemic windfalls and their lines of credit. The erosion of the global economy will deflate bonuses, capital gains and all the other sources of the top 10% "wealth effect," and credit will tighten as risk aversion and higher rates turn the spigot of easy credit off for the already-wealthy.
The collapse of the STVR bubble will topple a line of dominoes as corporate owners will awaken from their fantasies and realize they better sell now to lock in their gains before they vanish. Wealthy households who "land-banked" properties for capital gains and places to park "surplus capital" will also awaken to the the need to lock in gains by selling.
This is how bubbles collapse: the "vital few" 4% sell at whatever the market will bear, pushing prices down, and the 64% awaken to the rapidly narrowing window for locking in bubble capital gains. This rush for the exits triggers a strike in buyers, who realize there is no way to know how low valuations will fall, and so waiting for a bottom makes much more sense that playing "catch the knife," i.e. buying as a bubble deflates, hoping you don't get burned by prices falling after overpaying."

Gregory Mannarino, "Economy In Collapse; Personal Bankruptcies Skyrocket!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 8/28/23
"Economy In Collapse; Personal Bankruptcies Skyrocket!"
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o
Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/28/23
"Get Un-Banked! A 'Quiet Revolution' Has Begun"
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Greg Hunter, "Civilization & Dollar Are Going To End"

"Civilization & Dollar Are Going To End"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Financial writer John Rubino warned two weeks ago that whatever came out of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) meeting this past week would be bad for the dollar. The dollar did not crash, but the prospects for it remaining the reserve currency of the world took a beating. The BRICS added a half dozen countries into its group. Two of the most troubling for the dollar are Saudia Arabia (SA) (where the petrodollar started) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) where the U.S. has huge Navy and Airforce assets. SA and UAB officially joining the BRICS was nothing short of a stunning rebuke of U.S. financial and military power in the Persian Gulf. Rubino says, “So, now we’ve got the world’s biggest oil exporter and the site of a very big U.S. military presence in an anti-dollar coalition. This is a very big deal because the BRICS are sort of a trade organization dedicated to bypassing the dollar and not living under U.S. rule any longer. These countries don’t want to be controlled by what they see as a predatory empire. They are looking at what is happening financially in the developed world, and the U.S., Europe and Japan are taking on debt at an accelerating rate in a way that is going to lead to a gigantic financial crisis. There is no way around that at this point. If you are in the dollar centric trade system, you are vulnerable to a global crisis that is led by the dollar. So, you don’t want to be involved with that. There are a lot of reasons to set up a trade and monetary system that is not dollar based. One of the big ones is the dollar is going away because there is no way you can take on that kind of debt without a gigantic financial crisis and a currency reset at the end of it.”

Rubino goes on to say, “If we have a huge inflation led crisis that ends up with a currency reset, you don’t want to own Treasury bonds. Dollars are no longer risk-free assets. The BRICS countries have a lot of different motivations for forming their own coalition that is not vulnerable to the U.S. It makes a lot of sense for them to do what they are doing.”

The term “Mad Max” and the scenarios it conjures are becoming more and more possible with the deterioration of the financial system. Weather warfare is being waged in places all around the world with the help of geoengineering. Woke culture is making many cities unlivable and unsafe. Then add a global monetary crisis, and you have a perfect storm of destruction everything civilized. Rubino says, “There is a category of real estate called ‘cabin on land.’ It’s where you can buy 50 acres and a 400 square foot cabin with maybe solar panels and a well. Suddenly, that is hot property. Everybody wants one of those. That’s a sign of societal breakdown. Something where you are all alone in the woods is your preferred lifestyle, that means the world has gotten pretty stressful. That is the case for a lot of people in the U.S. We are creating a generation of ‘end of the roaders and survivalists.’ They are looking at this world and saying I need an AR-15, a cabin with solar panels and I will be okay.”

Find out why Rubino says all financial roads lead to gold and silver and why Rubino says the prepper lifestyle is becoming more and more popular. There is much more in the 50-minute interview."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with financial 
writer John Rubino and his new enterprise called Rubino.Substack.com.

"Economic Market Snapshot 8/28/23"

"Economic Market Snapshot 8/28/23"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
o

Sunday, August 27, 2023

"Nationwide Emergency Alert For USA; Apocalyptic Fires For Next 72 Hours In Canada!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 8/27/23
"Nationwide Emergency Alert For USA; 
Apocalyptic Fires For Next 72 Hours In Canada!"
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Jeremiah Babe, "Economic And Social Hell On Earth Is Reality"

Jeremiah Babe, 8/27/23
"Economic And Social Hell On Earth Is Reality"
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"Disney Faces Worst Crisis In Our Lifetime As Prices Shoot Up This Fall"

Fulll screen recommended.
"Disney Faces Worst Crisis In
 Our Lifetime As Prices Shoot Up This Fall"
by Epic Economist

"4,000% is the approximate increase in Disney ticket prices since the theme park was founded in the 1970s. No wonder today’s middle-class families are being priced out of the Magic Kingdom experience that has become part of every kid’s dreams in the past five decades. Entrance costs, food, beverage, and service prices are shooting up right now as the company silently conducts hundreds of price increases across the system. Lower park attendance and declining sales numbers aren’t stopping CEO Bob Iger from adding extra charges on almost everything Disney sells, and avid fans are definitely hurting. Some of the changes will be devastating for consumers who are planning to visit Disney World in the coming months and in the next year, a new report shows. So if you want to find out how much more it’s going to cost to visit and purchase your favorite Disney items, keep tuned until the end of this video!

This fall might be your last chance to buy Disney tickets for less, according to a new CNN report. The entertainment giant is readjusting prices for the fifth time in three years. Amid a cost-cutting effort and attempts to boost the company’s falling profits, CEO Bob Iger has just approved a series of price hikes that will affect parks, general merchandise, and streaming services costs in just a few short months.

Many restaurants have already been quietly introducing menu price changes in the past few months, especially during the summer. On the company’s official website, the exact increases are not being disclosed to the public. However, data compiled by Disney Food Blog exposed price jumps of up to 40% in the past couple of months.

Even though customers already seem alarmed by spiking prices at Disney theme parks, CEO Bob Iger says it will help “boost revenue and limit overcrowding.” In fact, amid falling sales and subscriber losses, the company’s streaming service Disney+ will get almost 30% more expensive starting on October 12. Commercial-free Disney+ will cost $13.99 per month, a 27% increase, while Hulu without ads will cost $17.99 per month, a 20% price hike.

There’s one alarming trend for executives to watch out for -- demand for parks is going down. In Florida, park attendance this summer was 12 percentage points lower than during the summer of 2022. The tab for admission tickets to the Disney World and Disneyland theme parks has jumped more than 3,871% in the past 50 years — dwarfing increases in visitors’ wages, as well as the cost of rent and gas, figures compiled by data-tracking firm SJ Data Visualizations showed. By comparison, wages as well as the cost of rent and gasoline have all risen by percentages well below 500% during the same timeframe,

“If Walt [Disney] were alive today, he would probably be uncomfortable with the prices they’re charging right now,” Scott Smith, an assistant professor of hospitality at the University of South Carolina, who worked as a cast member in Disney’s Haunted Mansion, told the Washington Post. “They’ve priced middle-class families out.”Sadly, the Happiest Place on Earth is now becoming the priciest place on Earth, and only a very selected group of guests will be able to afford it."
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Musical Interlude: Josh Groban, "Remember When It Rained"

Full screen recommended.
Josh Groban, "Remember When It Rained"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Who knows what evil lurks in the eyes of galaxies? The Hubble knows -- or in the case of spiral galaxy M64 - is helping to find out. Messier 64, also known as the Evil Eye or Sleeping Beauty Galaxy, may seem to have evil in its eye because all of its stars rotate in the same direction as the interstellar gas in the galaxy's central region, but in the opposite direction in the outer regions. Captured here in great detail by the Earth-orbiting Hubble Space Telescope, enormous dust clouds obscure the near-side of M64's central region, which are laced with the telltale reddish glow of hydrogen associated with star formation. 
M64 lies about 17 million light years away, meaning that the light we see from it today left when the last common ancestor between humans and chimpanzees roamed the Earth. The dusty eye and bizarre rotation are likely the result of a billion-year-old merger of two different galaxies."

"Do You Want..."

"Do you want to live life, 
or do you want to escape life?"
- Macklemore