"The Graveyard of Empires" (Excerpt)

"The Graveyard of Empires: 

The Top Investments as the World Order Collapses"

by Nick Giambruno

Excerpt: “You have the watches, but we have the time.” The Taliban often referred to this old Afghan saying when discussing their fight against the Americans. Ultimately, they were proven correct. After almost two decades of conflict, an insurgent army from one of the world’s poorest nations inflicted a decisive military defeat on the US, the global superpower that upholds the unipolar world order. The US government’s total failure in Afghanistan - the longest war in American history - signifies a crucial moment and turning point in world history.

The Soviet Union collapsed about two years after the Red Army was defeated and withdrew from Afghanistan. As we approach the second anniversary of the American retreat, could a similar fate be in store for the US? While nobody knows the future, there is an excellent chance that the colossal failure in Afghanistan could accelerate the unraveling of the geopolitical power of the US and the shift to a multipolar world order.

Afghanistan’s strategic position has always made it a coveted prize in the Eurasian landscape. As shown in the image below, Afghanistan is situated in the center of Eurasia, at the crossroads of China, Iran, and Russia - the three primary challengers to the US-led world order.

This central location is why Afghanistan has enormous geopolitical importance and why the US desired a strategic military presence there.

The US military’s presence in Afghanistan was a strategic roadblock to Russia, China, and Iran’s goal of creating a powerful geopolitical group in Eurasia that could challenge the US-led world order. However, with the Taliban forcing the US military out of Afghanistan, the door to a more coherent geopolitical alliance in Eurasia is now wide open. In short, failure in Afghanistan is a geopolitical disaster for the US.

For at least the past decade, China, Russia, and Iran have been working on an impressive plan to connect Eurasia - even while the US military was in Afghanistan. This trend will likely speed up now that the US military is no longer physically in their way. Here’s what they have been working on…

China, Russia, and Iran are constructing a vast network of land-based transportation infrastructure, making the US Navy’s control of the oceans less significant.

China’s New Silk Road project is central to this new system. It aims to bypass the US financial system and the US Navy’s control of sea routes. The project, planned to be operational by 2025, includes high-speed railways, highways, fiber optic cables, energy pipelines, seaports, and airports.

These Eurasian powers are also establishing alternative international organizations for financial, political, and security cooperation, separate from those central to the US-led world order, institutions like NATO, the World Bank, SWIFT, and the IMF. Some notable examples include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), launched by China in 2014 and is an alternative to the IMF and World Bank.

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian-led trading bloc created in 2015, allows for the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people among its member countries. Lastly, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) focuses on military and security collaboration between its members.

If current trends continue, it will result in greater economic, political, and security collaboration among the three main Eurasian nations—China, Russia, and Iran—at the expense of US geopolitical interests. This scenario is exactly what Zbigniew Brzezinski worried would make the US “geopolitically peripheral.” It spells the end of the unipolar world order. In short, we are on the path to the emergence of an alliance of powerful Eurasian countries and a multipolar world order.

As the world order changes, I think there are two prominent outcomes we can bet on.

The US Dollar Will Lose Its Privileged Position. The decline of America’s geopolitical influence is another enormous headwind for the US dollar. Suppose the world thinks the US military is the ultimate backstop of the US dollar. What does it mean for the US dollar’s credibility when a ragtag group of insurgents from one of the poorest countries can defeat the military which backs it? If the mighty US military couldn’t secure its partners in Afghanistan, how can it protect its other allies?

Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Western European countries, and the Gulf Arab states are likely pondering this. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them make security arrangements with US adversaries - such as China, Russia, and Iran - that exclude the Americans. In fact, this has already happened with Saudi Arabia, a crucial player in the US-led world order. Saudi Arabia is the linchpin of the petrodollar system, which has underpinned the US dollar since Nixon removed its last links to gold in 1971.

In a matter of weeks, Saudi Arabia has:

Restored relations with Iran.

Restored relations with Syria and welcomed it back to Arab League.

Supported multiple OPEC+ oil production cuts against American wishes.

Announced an end to the war in Yemen.

Agreed to sell oil in other currencies.

Decided to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The US recently sent its CIA director to Riyadh to tell the Saudis the Americans feel “blindsided” amid these seismic shifts in Saudi foreign policy. In short, a paradigm shift in Saudi policies signifies a paradigm shift in the US dollar because of the petrodollar system.

However, Saudi Arabia is not the only US ally hedging its geopolitical bets recently. France, India, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, and others are making moves to cozy up to the Eurasian geopolitical block. The big question is, how long will the world continue to hold the paper liabilities of a bankrupt and declining government?

While the US dollar is the leading global currency, it was already on a path of inevitable debasement and eventual collapse - even before considering the compounding effects of a multipolar world order.

The only reason the US government has managed to avoid severe consequences from its monetary policies is the US dollar’s status as the world’s premiere reserve currency, thanks to Washington’s military and economic dominance that has prevailed since the end of World War II. However, as this dominance wanes, so will the dollar’s purchasing power. The US government’s ability to hide the effects of its rampant money printing by offloading trillions of dollars to foreigners is nearing its end. That’s terrible news for the US dollar.

Now, that doesn’t mean I’m excited about the Chinese fiat currency - or whatever new monetary concoction the Eurasian block comes up with. Ultimately it will be nothing more than the liability of a new grouping of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats."

Full article here:

- https://internationalman.com/

"Does A 1904 Geopolitical Theory Explain The War In Ukraine?"

"Does A 1904 Geopolitical Theory

 Explain The War In Ukraine?"

by John Wilder

"When I look at the war in Ukraine and other world events, I see evidence of Sir Halford John Mackinder. It would have been cool if he was the frontman for a 1910s version of Judas Priest, but no. Mackinder was a guy who thought long and hard about mountains, deserts, oceans, steppes, and wars. You could tell Mackinder was going to be good at geography, what with that latitude. The result of all this pondering was what he called the Heartland Theory, which was the founding moment for geopolitics.

What’s geopolitics? It’s the idea that one of the biggest influencers in human history (besides being human) was the geography we inhabit. Mackinder’s first version wasn’t very helpful, since he just ended up with “Indonesia” and the rest of the world, which he called “Outdonesia”.

Mackinder focused mainly on the Eurasian continent. Flat land with no obstacles meant, in Mackinder’s mind, that the land would be eventually ruled by a single power. Jungles and swamps could be a barrier, but eventually he thought that technology would solve that. Mountains? Mountains were obstacles that stopped invasions, and allowed cultures to develop independently. Even better than a mountain? An island.

There’s even a theory (not Mackinder’s) that the independent focus on freedom flourished in England because the local farmers weren’t (after the Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Mormons, and Vikings were done pillaging) subject to invasion and were able to develop a culture based on a government with limited powers, along with rights invested in every man.

Mackinder went further, though. He saw the combination of Eurasia and Africa as something he called the World Island. If the World Island came under the domination of a single power, he thought, it would eventually rule the rest of the world – it would have overwhelming resources and population, and it would have the ability to outproduce (both economically and militarily) everything else. “Pivot Area” is what Mackinder first called the Heartland.

Mackinder, being English, had seen the Great Game in the 1900s, which in many cases was a fight to keep Russia landlocked. The rest of Europe feared a Russia that had access to the sea. Conversely, Russia itself was the Heartland of the Mackinder’s World Island. Russia was separated and protected on most of its borders by mountains and deserts. On the north, Russia was protected by the Arctic Ocean, which is generally more inaccessible than most of Joe Biden’s recent memories.

Russia is still essentially landlocked. The Soviet Navy had some nice submarines, but outside of that, the Russians have never been a naval power, and the times Russia attempted to make a navy have been so tragically inept that well, let me give an example: The sea Battle of Tsushima between the Japanese and Russians in 1905 was a Japanese victory. The Japanese lost 117 dead, 583 wounded, and lost 3 torpedo boats. The Russians? They lost 5,045 dead, 803 injured, 6,016 captured, 6 battleships sunk, 2 battleships captured. The Russians sank 450 ton of the Japanese Navy. The Japanese sunk 126,792 tons of the Russian fleet. Yup. This was more lopsided than a fight between a poodle and a porkchop.

Mackinder noted that the Heartland (Russia) was built on land power. The Rimlands (or, on the map “Inner Crescent”) were built on sea power. In the end, almost all of the twentieth century was built on keeping Russia away from the ocean, and fighting over Eastern Europe. Why? In Mackinder’s mind, “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland (Russia); Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; Who rules the World Island commands the World.” In one sense, it’s true.

Mackinder finally in 1943 came up with another idea, his first idea being lonely. I think he could see the way World War II was going to end, so he came up with the idea that if the United States were to team up with Western Europe, they could still command the Rimlands and contain the Soviet Union to the Heartland.

There are several reasons that the United States has responded with such an amazing amount of aid to Ukraine. $120 billion dollars? Some people don’t work a whole year and get that much money. No, the idea is to bleed Putin as deeply and completely as they can. Why? If they’re following Mackinder, this keeps Russia vulnerable. It keeps Eastern Europe from being under Russia’s control – if you count the number of “Battles of Kiev” or “Battles of Kharkov” you can see that it’s statistically more likely to rain artillery in Kiev than rain water.

This might be the major driver for Russia, too. A Russian-aligned (or at least neutral) Ukraine nicely plugs the Russian southern flank. And this is nearly the last year that Russia can make this attempt – the younger generation isn’t very big, and the older generation that built and can run all of the cool Soviet tech? They’re dying off. Soon all their engineers with relevant weapons manufacturing experience will be...dead. If Russia is going to attempt to secure the south, this is their only shot. Depending on how vulnerable the Russians think they are, the harder they’ll fight. NATO nations tossing in weapons isn’t helping the famous Russian paranoia.

I think that the United States, in getting cozy with China in the 1970s, was following along with Mackinder’s theory – I believe Mackinder himself said that a Chinese-Russian alliance could effectively control the Heartland and split the Rimland, given China’s access to the oceans. And that’s what China is doing now, with the Belt and Road Initiative. Remember Mackinder’s World Island? Here’s a map of the countries participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative:

Spoiler alert: It’s the world island."

- https://wilderwealthywise.com/

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Full screen recommended.

"Halford Mackinder, Heartland Theory and Geographical Pivot 1"

by Geopoliticus

"In this presentation we discuss the theory for Geographic Causation in Universal History proposed by Sir Halford Mackinder in his paper - "The Geographic Pivot of History" delivered as a lecture in 1904. The theoretical propositions in the paper regarding how natural geography controls the flow of history of civilizations - with nature acting as a stage for man to act upon - was the most relevant contribution of Halford Mackinder towards developing a philosophic synthesis between geography, history and statesmanship, leading to the development of modern geopolitics.

In this part we see how he proposes the beginning of a new era in the international system from the 1900s, predicts (in a way) the break out of the First World War, and builds a unified model based on Geo-history for understanding the emergence and evolution of European civilization."

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Full screen recommended.

"Halford Mackinder, Heartland Theory and Geographical Pivot 2"

by Geopoliticus

"In this presentation we view Mackinder’s historical analysts by looking at the interactions between different Geographic zones, seeing how the Mongols used land power to unify the core of the World Island and how Europeans circumvented nomadic heartland power by investing in sea power. The core idea of Halford Mackinder’s Thesis was that in the beginning of the 20th century, geographers needed to develop a philosophical synthesis of geographical conditions and historical trajectories of nations over long ranges of time.

He attempted to do this for the history of Eurasia, which he called, the World Island. According to his theoretical model, there was a link between geographical conditions and the nature of geopolitical order, for one, but for further depth in understanding historical trajectories we need to do a wider scale analysis of interactions between different geographically influenced political orders by building a model of Heartland-Rimland interactions across history."

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Freely download "The Geographical Pivot of History", 

by HJ Mackinder, April 1904, here:

- https://www.iwp.edu/

○

Why is this important? Consider history, from which we learn nothing...

"The earliest evidence of prehistoric warfare is a Mesolithic cemetery in Jebel Sahaba, which has been determined to be approximately 14,000 years old. About forty-five percent of the skeletons there displayed signs of violent death. Since the rise of the state some 5,000 years ago, military activity has occurred over much of the globe. The advent of gunpowder and the acceleration of technological advances led to modern warfare. According to Conway W. Henderson, "One source claims that 14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace." An unfavorable review of this estimate  mentions the following regarding one of the proponents of this estimate: "In addition, perhaps feeling that the war casualties figure was improbably high, he changed 'approximately 3,640,000,000 human beings have been killed by war or the diseases produced by war' to 'approximately 1,240,000,000 human beings.'" 

The lower figure is more plausible, but could still be on the high side considering that the 100 deadliest acts of mass violence between 480 BC and 2002 AD (wars and other man-made disasters with at least 300,000 and up to 66 million victims) claimed about 455 million human lives in total. Primitive warfare is estimated to have accounted for 15.1% of deaths and claimed 400 million victims. Added to the aforementioned figure of 1,240 million between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, this would mean a total of 1,640,000,000 people killed by war (including deaths from famine and disease caused by war) throughout the history and pre-history of mankind. For comparison, an estimated 1,680,000,000 people died from infectious diseases in the 20th century."

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War

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"It would indeed be a tragedy if the history of the human 

race proved to be nothing more than the story of an 

ape playing with a box of matches on a petrol dump."

- David Ormsby-Gore

The Daily "Near You?"

Dagenham, Barking and Dagenham, United Kingdom

Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Rolf Jacobsen, "When They Sleep"

"When They Sleep"

"All people are children when they sleep.

There's no war in them then.

They open their hands and breathe

in that quiet rhythm heaven has given them.

They pucker their lips like small children

and open their hands halfway,

soldiers and statesmen, servants and masters.

The stars stand guard

and a haze veils the sky,

a few hours when no one will do anybody harm.

If only we could speak to one another then

when our hearts are half-open flowers.

Words like golden bees

would drift in.

God, teach me the language of sleep."

- Rolf Jacobsen,

"The Roads Have Come to an End Now"

"‘I Cry Quietly’: A Soldier Describes the Toll of Russia’s War"

Full screen recommended.

"‘I Cry Quietly’: 

A Soldier Describes the Toll of Russia’s War"

"For Valentyn, a Ukrainian soldier in the Donetsk region, the war’s death toll is more than a statistic. He is tasked with moving wounded troops - and dead bodies - away from the front lines, often under Russian fire."

"Under Russian Fire, 

A Ukrainian Soldier Evacuates the Wounded"

By Yousur Al-Hlou and Masha Froliak

Near Kremmina, Ukraine - "The sound of artillery launching and landing along the front line punctures the stillness of the forest just a few miles away, where combat medics are waiting to receive the wounded. On the horizon, a military vehicle moves along a dusty road and screeches to a halt when it reaches the trees. A soldier named Valentyn parks it there for natural camouflage from Russian drones scouting for Ukrainian military positions.

A group of soldiers, visibly shaken, quickly unloads three bodies that have just been recovered from the front line, placing each one into a plastic body bag and zipping it closed. Their position was shelled and then attacked by a drone, they say. “They’re shooting at you from all sides. You turn, you run, they hit you, and it’s impossible to get away,” said Maksym, who survived the attack. “This is a big tragedy for us.” “One more body is left behind with the Russian soldiers,” he added.

While much of the world’s attention was fixated on the bloody urban battle taking place in Bakhmut, Russia’s campaign in eastern Ukraine is also raging in forests and fields about 50 miles north of the city, near Kreminna. Here, soldiers take positions in trenches surrounded by tall, slim trees, crouching to avoid the direct line of sight of their Russian enemies. “People say it’s harsh in Bakhmut,” said Valentyn, who joined the army seven months ago. “But it’s harsh here, too.”

For the past month, Valentyn has been stationed at this evacuation point, traveling back and forth to the front line almost daily to rescue wounded soldiers and recover the dead. His job requires him to drive directly toward Russian forces, and he has come under fire at times. “There is nothing good about it,” Valentyn said. “What is this war for?”

Ukrainian and Russian military officials have been reluctant to release data on casualties within their ranks, though the U.S. government and military experts estimate that both sides have suffered significant losses in the tens or hundreds of thousands.

For Valentyn, the work of responding to the casualties has been both grim and relentless. “There is blood everywhere,” he said, while cleaning it from his vehicle. “It has a smell. Especially fresh blood.” Bright red liquid trickled through his fingers as he rinsed out a bloodied cloth. He drained the cloth and used it again to wipe off the back seat. “It’s difficult to see young boys die,” Valentyn said. “Sometimes I cry quietly.”

In calmer moments when there is no one to evacuate, Valentyn travels deep into the forest to transport soldiers to and from the contact line, where Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are sometimes positioned just hundreds of meters apart. He said at least one group of soldiers couldn’t make it to their position because Russian troops had already taken it over.

“Every day is scary here,” said Viktor, a soldier who returned with Valentyn. “I feel constant anxiety, for our country and our lives.” His stoic face reflected the fear and horror known only to those who had witnessed the fight in the forest. “Those who haven’t been there will never understand.”

- https://www.nytimes.com/

Don't you dare look away! You, and me and all of us have paid at least $120 billion for this nightmare! The blood he's cleaning up is on all our hands, too...

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 5/23/23

 

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 5/23/23

"Ukraine Fighting - What's Next, after Bakhmut?

 Larry Johnson fmr CIA"

Video and comments here:

https://www.youtube.com

Hindustan Times, 5/23/23

"Putin Ally's Chilling 'Nuclear Apocalypse' 

Threat After Ukraine Attacks Russian City"

"Russia is enraged after back-to-back drone attacks in its border city of Belgorod. Vladimir Putin's close aide and deputy chief of the Russian security council, Dmitry Medvedev, has issued a 'deadly' nuclear deterrent to Ukraine and its backers. Moscow threatens nuclear war after attacks in the Russian city of Belgorod. The Russian Defense Ministry has said that Ukraine is resorting to terrorism in the Belgorod region after its Bakhmut defeat."

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Douglas Macgregor, 5/23/23

"A Real Battle in Bakhmut"

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"How It Really Is"

  

"Global Debt Bubble Of $2.3 Quadrillion"

"Global Debt Bubble Of $2.3 Quadrillion"

by Egon Von Greyerz

"As I have outlined in many articles, these towers mentioned above have been instrumental in creating a global debt bubble of $300 trillion plus derivatives and unfunded liabilities of around $2 quadrillion, most of which will turn into debt in the next decade or less. So even if the world can avoid a major nuclear war, it is likely to suffer massive repercussions from the financial calamity coming next. As Gandhi said: “There is sufficiency in the world for Man's need but not for his greed.”

To create $2.3 quadrillion of global liabilities has nothing to do with man’s need but only with the greed of a few at the expense of mankind. When the nuclear financial bubble bursts we will see an implosion of asset prices in real terms by 75-90% as I have outlined in many articles like here.

In my article “In The End The $ Goes To Zero And The Us Defaults” , I also explain that “there is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion” as von Mises stated.

So even if the world survives the threat of a nuclear war, a collapse of the financial system is absolutely inevitable. The greed and the adoration of the golden calf that some parts of the world have practiced in the last 50 years, will not go unpunished. This major transformation coming will be like a financial nuclear event. After a difficult transition, the world will not only come out of it with a much sounder foundation but also based on much better human values than currently."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

o

“Parasitic Derivatives: $1.5 – 2.4 Quadrillion 

Dollars, Too Big to Understand”

o

Full screen recommended.

"US Debt of $30 Trillion Visualized in Stacks of Physical Cash"

For conceptualizing the amount of debt being discussed. This was 2 years ago when the debt was only $30 trillion. Now it's $34.1 trillion, and about to explode higher. Try to imagine $2.5 QUADRILLION of derivatives, an impossibility really, inconceivable. As the glorious Mogambo Guru said, "We're so freakin' doomed!" Oh, we are...

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

So, if it's truly hopeless, and it is, then why bother?

If you were facing a firing squad, and we all are...

wouldn't you at least want to know why? 

And who stood you against the wall? I would...

Bill Bonner, "Hard Choices Ahead"

"Hard Choices Ahead"

Having put off reality for long enough,

 the Feds finally face the flames...

by Bill Bonner

"Did you ever have to make up your mind?

Pick up on one and leave the other one behind,

It's not often easy, and not often kind,

Did you ever have to make up your mind?

Did you ever have to finally decide?

Say yes to one and let the other one ride.

There's so many changes, and tears you must hide,

Did you ever have to finally decide?"

~ The Lovin’ Spoonful

Youghal, Ireland -  "Uh oh. Hard choices ahead. Yahoo Finance: Time is running low to strike a deal…"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen maintains that a deal needs to be reached and "it's not an acceptable situation for us to be unable to pay our bills." Her first priorities if there is no deal by June 1 would include paying for interest on existing debt as well as making sure Social Security recipients and military employees get their checks on time, she said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press. “There will be hard choices to make about what bills go unpaid” if the talks fail or are too slow.

Paying the army was always the top priority in ancient Rome. If the soldiers weren’t paid (especially late in the empire when they were mostly mercenary armies of Germans and Slavs) they might turn on Rome itself.

The Fed’s Pickle: But that is the pickle that the feds have gotten themselves into. They are hostage to their own bamboozles. Like reckless, petty swindlers, they owe money all over town. If they don’t pay up, there are likely to be consequences.

What a horrible situation (from Joe Biden’s, Ms. Yellen’s and the feds’ point of view). They’ve devoted their whole careers to avoiding hard choices and unpleasant consequences. When Joe Biden came to Washington, the feds owed only $400 billion. Now it’s nearly $32 trillion; every penny of the difference represents another hard choice not made. And why make a hard choice when you don’t have to? Go with them both. Blonde and brunette. Guns and butter. Aces and eights. Russia and China.

But hard choices are what the feds should have been making all along. And if they had, our choices today wouldn’t be so hard. We wouldn’t have an estimated $20 trillion debt more coming over the next 10 years. Or a war in the Ukraine and 800 military bases all over the world. Or 5% inflation. We wouldn’t have a $2 trillion budget deficit this year…or interest rates that have to be held down in order to avoid going broke. And America’s hard-working families (AHWF) wouldn’t be getting poorer.

Hey, wait…here comes another Deus ex Machina…AI. Are we saved? Why not just let it make the hard choices for us? It’s not swayed by emotions or prejudices, right? AI has no knees to jerk or necks to stiffen. It could just examine the federal budget logically and point out those things that aren’t really necessary…no? No need to raise the debt ceiling? Oh, dear reader, we need to put on our thinking caps, don’t we?

Human, all too Human: The feds are humans, too. And like all of us, they want to feel good about themselves…that they are top guns…big spenders. Patrons of the arts. They want to give alms to the poor and payoffs to the rich…and win re-election. They want to make things better for everyone, especially large campaign donors. And as long as the price tags are removed…and there are no real debt ceilings…and they are spending other people’s money, no hard choices are necessary. In any case, when you’re over 80, whatever the price – war, inflation, bankruptcy – someone else is likely to pay it, not you.

We happened to watch a tech expert giving a TED talk. He was telling us about the “evolving relationship between humans and computers.” It was “deeply profound,” he said. Our message today: it is probably only superficially profound.

Even using old-fashioned, natural intelligence, our species has been able to make extraordinary progress in the outside world. We add. We subtract. We find the hypotenuse. We use science and technology to level the forests and raise up huge concrete and glass towers. We use our brains to accelerate particles and slow down traffic. We can now push a few buttons and obliterate entire cities…and cause the heavens to fill with huge clouds of radioactive dust. That’s progress!

Pure Fantasyland: But science and technology are always faced with hard choices – Boyle’s law, the boiling point of water, the conductivity of copper, gravity – we bend to the laws of the natural universe. They do not bend to us.

Our internal world, however, evolves more slowly. It is a trickster. And much more difficult to manipulate. We are, more or less, still the same knuckle-dragging, rough animal that first rose up onto two legs. We have feelings, emotions – far beyond anything our thinking minds can comprehend or control. We fall in love. We paw the ground. We howl at the moon.

In our families and our businesses, there too, we are always constrained by tough choices. Take a vacation or fix the roof? Hire another employee or give existing employees a raise? But in war, economics, and politics we let the beast off the leash. A Cultural Revolution… Free the Holy Lands…DEI…On to Moscow!

For many years, in the federal budgeting process, the feds ignored the right side of the menu. There was no need to look at prices when you could borrow all the money you wanted…at real rates below zero…and never have to pay it back. There are no hard choices in fantasyland.

So, “Cry havoc! and let slip the dogs of war”…open the gates of Hell…hand out the stimmies…give free rein to jealousy, hate, envy, pride – all the seven deadly sins are still there…along with others we’ve picked up along the way. A large government, with the world’s reserve currency, a printing press and a military machine far larger than any rival can push off the hard choices for decades. But not forever.

Ms. Yellen knows perfectly well that the US government doesn’t really need to borrow more money. What then, is really going on? And what can AI do about it? Stay tuned..."

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"Dan, I Allegedly 5/23/23"

Dan, I Allegedly 5/23/23

"They Are Doing It Now"

"The debt ceiling debacle is still not being resolved. Plus, we are seeing banks that want to know what you’re going to do with the cash you take out of the bank. This is a set up to make sure that they limit your spending power."

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/23/23"

"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 

You and I are not in the Big Club."

- George Carlin

o

Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/23/23

"OPEC Warns 'Much Higher Energy Prices';

 JPM Warns: More Bank Failures Coming"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Stock Up Now At Meijer! Massive Holiday Sale! Don't Miss This!"

Adventures With Danno, 5/23/23

"Stock Up Now At Meijer!

 Massive Holiday Sale! Don't Miss This!"

"In today's vlog, we are at Meijer, and are noticing that they are having a huge sale on holiday baking items this month! We are stocking up and showing the best deals as we take you shopping with us. It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Red Alert! US Government Issuing Satellite Phones; Russia Evacuates Nuclear Weapons; F16s Will Be WW3"

Canadian Prepper, 5/22/23

"Red Alert! US Government Issuing Satellite Phones;

Russia Evacuates Nuclear Weapons; F16s Will Be WW3"

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Redacted, 5/22/23

"OH SH*T, NATO Escalates War in Ukraine 

With Attack in Belgorod Using US Weapons"

"NATO and Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack inside of pre-war Russia using American armored vehicles and weapons. They attacked civilians and residential buildings in broad daylight in the Russian town of Belgorod."

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Government Default Catastrophic; Dave Ramsey Is Very Wrong, Debt Clock Sends Ominous Warning"

Jeremiah Babe, 5/22/23

"Government Default Catastrophic; Dave Ramsey Is 

Very Wrong, Debt Clock Sends Ominous Warning"

Video and comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: 2002, "The End Is a Beginning"

Full screen recommended.

2002, "The End Is a Beginning"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“The Cat's Eye Nebula (NGC 6543) is one of the best known planetary nebulae in the sky. Its more familiar outlines are seen in the brighter central region of the nebula in this impressive wide-angle view. But the composite image combines many short and long exposures to also reveal an extremely faint outer halo. At an estimated distance of 3,000 light-years, the faint outer halo is over 5 light-years across.

Planetary nebulae have long been appreciated as a final phase in the life of a sun-like star. More recently, some planetary nebulae are found to have halos like this one, likely formed of material shrugged off during earlier episodes in the star's evolution. While the planetary nebula phase is thought to last for around 10,000 years, astronomers estimate the age of the outer filamentary portions of this halo to be 50,000 to 90,000 years. Visible on the left, some 50 million light-years beyond the watchful planetary nebula, lies spiral galaxy NGC 6552.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

○

“Big Space”

"Our planet is a tiny porthole, looking over a cosmic sea.

Can we learn what lies beyond our own horizons of perception?"

"In The End..."

"Regret for the things we did can be tempered by time;

it is regret for the things we did not do that is inconsolable."

~ Sydney J. Harris

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “Evidence”

“Evidence”

“Where do I live?


If I had no address, as many people do not,


I could nevertheless say that I lived in the

same town as the lilies of the field,


and the still waters.


Spring, and all through the neighborhood

now there are
 strong men tending flowers.

Beauty without purpose is beauty without virtue.


But all beautiful things, inherently, have this function -


to excite the viewers toward sublime thought.


Glory to the world, that good teacher.

Among the swans there is none

called the least,
 or the greatest.

I believe in kindness. Also in mischief.


Also in singing,

especially when singing is not necessarily prescribed.

As for the body,

it is solid and strong and curious and full of detail;


it wants to polish itself; it wants to love another body;


it is the only vessel in the world that can hold,


in a mix of power and sweetness:


words, song, gesture, passion, ideas,
ingenuity,

devotion, merriment, vanity, and virtue.

Keep some room in your heart for the unimaginable.”

- Mary Oliver

•

“We don’t read and write poetry because it’s cute. We read and write poetry because we are members of the human race. And the human race is filled with passion. And medicine, law, business, engineering, these are noble pursuits and necessary to sustain life. But poetry, beauty, romance, love, these are what we stay alive for! To quote from Whitman, ‘O me! O life! of the questions of these recurring; of the endless trains of the faithless - of cities filled with the foolish; what good amid these, O me, O life?’ Answer: That you are here - that life exists, and that the powerful play goes on and you may contribute a verse. What will your verse be?”

- “Dead Poets Society”

"I Urge All Of You..."

“To me, there are three things we all should do every day. We should do this every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy. But think about it. If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that’s a full day. That’s a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you’re going to have something special. I just got one last thing... I urge all of you, all of you, to enjoy your life, the precious moments you have.”

- Jim Valvano

"The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Destroyed"

"The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Destroyed"

by Michael Snyder

"If you wanted to destroy the middle class, one way that you could accomplish that goal would be to flood the system with money. Of course that is precisely what we have witnessed over the past few years. Our leaders have pumped trillions of new dollars into the system, and the wealthy have gotten much, much wealthier. But meanwhile, the rest of us have seen the cost of living rise much faster than our paychecks have. As a result, we are getting poorer and the middle class is shrinking.

Over time, our capitalist economy has steadily evolved into a system where almost all of the wealth and almost all of the power are concentrated in the hands of giant institutions. Collectively, big government and big corporations run virtually everything, and this system of “corporate socialism” funnels tremendous amount of wealth into the pockets of a very small minority of the population. If you are in that club, life is good. But if you are not in that club, life can be a struggle.

The gap between the rich and the poor has steadily grown, and now it is larger than it has ever been before. Even U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders acknowledges that we have a massive problem on our hands…"Today, half of our people are living paycheck to paycheck, 500,000 of the very poorest among us are homeless, millions are worried about evictions, 92 million are uninsured or underinsured, and families all across the country are worried about how they are going to feed their kids. Today, an entire generation of young people carry an outrageous level of student debt and face the reality that their standard of living will be lower than their parents’. And, most obscenely, low-income Americans now have a life expectancy that is about 15 years lower than the wealthy. Poverty in America has become a death sentence."

Meanwhile, the people on top have never had it so good. The top 1% now own more wealth than the bottom 92%, and the 50 wealthiest Americans own more wealth than the bottom half of American society – 165 million people. Of course Sanders believes that even more socialism is the answer, but more socialism is never the answer.

Centralizing wealth and power leads to widespread poverty. We have seen this same pattern over and over again all over the globe. Decentralizing wealth and power leads to boundless prosperity like we saw in early America. Unfortunately, our current system is what it is, and the middle class is being absolutely crushed.

Earlier today, I came across a tweet from Mike Cernovich that really resonated with me…"I made $10 an hour as a part timer worker in Home Depot style store. $12.50 on weekends. This was 1990’s in small town. Would be $19 an hour today and $24 on weekends. I checked and same job TODAY is $12.50 an hour."

This is what inflation has done to the working class. This is what so many of the “working poor” are facing today. Wages for many jobs have not moved much at all over the years, but the cost of living has been absolutely soaring.

Cernovich also pointed out that a couple of decades ago hardly anything that we bought on a regular basis “felt expensive”…"Gas was often 99 cents/gallon. Gallon milk was 99 cents to $1.29. This was in 1997-2000 era. Nothing felt expensive other than “nice stuff,” luxuries. Daily living, groceries, sure you had to budget but it didn’t feel like it does now."

Isn’t that so true? I remember that time well. I could fill up an entire grocery cart for just 25 dollars, and that even included an entire cake. Yes, I really liked to eat cake in those days. But now if you fill up an entire cart with food, you will feel like you are making a house payment when you get to the register.

Needless to say, house payments are also much higher than they used to be. In fact, it is being reported that the average existing home actually costs approximately 93,000 dollars more than it did in 2020…You read that right—existing homes cost around $93,000 more than they did in 2020. No wonder so many people feel like they can’t afford a house!

And newly built homes are even more expensive. In fact, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates new homes will cost around $425,786 in 2023. Out of 132.5 million American households, 96.5 million of them won’t be able to afford that median price. So even if we see a ton of new houses being built, 7 out of 10 households will have a tough time paying for one.

$93,000 dollars! In the old days, you could get a really nice home for 93,000 dollars. But now the American Dream is out of reach for millions upon millions of families.

At this stage, many hard working families don’t even make enough money “to cover their most basic needs”…"More than a third of US families that work full-time do not earn enough money to cover their most basic needs, including housing, food and child care, a new study shows. Researchers at Brandeis University found 35% of American families do not meet the “basic family needs budget” — the amount needed to afford rent, food, transportation, medical care and minimal household expenses — despite working full-time year-round."

And thanks to inflation, it is getting worse with each passing month. According to one recent survey, approximately 70 percent of all Americans openly admit “to being stressed about their personal finances”…"Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about their personal finances these days and a majority — 52% — of U.S. adults said their financial stress has increased since before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to a new CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in partnership with Momentive."

A lot of you out there are in the same boat. You are working as hard as you can, but it seems like there is never enough money at the end of the month. That is because the game is rigged. Our system has been so corrupted that now almost all of the economic rewards are being funneled to those at the very top of the food chain. Meanwhile, the middle class is being absolutely eviscerated, and poverty is spreading like wildfire all over the nation."

-https://www.zerohedge.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Grand Prairie, Texas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Albanian Proverb..."

 

"15 Common Dynamics Of SHTF Collapses"

"15 Common Dynamics Of SHTF Collapses"

by Fabian Ommar

"When it comes to how we see and prepare for SHTF, thinking in terms of real and probable rather than fictional and possible can make a big difference. Even though SHTF has many forms and levels and is in essence complex, random, diverse and unsystematic, some patterns and principles are common to the way things unfold when it hits the fan. With Toby and Selco’s "Seven Pillars of Urban Preparedness" as inspiration, I came up with a different list of the 15 dynamics and realities of collapses.

#1 SHTF is nuanced and happens in stages: Thinking about SHTF as an ON/OFF, all-or-nothing endgame is a common mistake that can lead to severe misjudgments and failures in critical areas of preparedness. Part (or parts) of the system crash, freeze, fail, or become impaired. This is how SHTF happens in the real world. And when it does, people run for safety first, i.e., resort to more familiar behaviors, expecting things to “go back to normal soon.”

By “normal behaviors,” I mean everything from hoarding stuff (toilet paper?) to rioting, looting, and crime, and yes, using cash – as these happen all the time, even when things are normal. But no one becomes a barterer, a peddler, a precious metals specialist in a week. Society adapts as time passes (and the situation requires). That’s why preppers who are also SHTF survivors (and thus talk from personal experience) insist that abandoning fantasies and caring for basics first is crucial. This is not a coincidence. It is how things happen in the real world.

Recently I wrote about black markets and the role of cash in SHTFs, emphasizing these things take precedence except in a full-blown apocalypse – which no one can say if, when, or how will happen (because it never has?). Now, I don’t pretend to be the owner of the truth, but those insisting changes in society happen radically or abruptly should check this article about the fallout in Myanmar.

#2 Everything crawls until everything runs: Number two is a corollary to #1. SHTF happens in stair-steps, but most people failing to prepare and getting caught off-guard is evidence of the difficulty of the human brain to fully grasp the concept of exponential growth. It bears telling the analogy of the stadium being filled with water drops to illustrate this.

Let’s say we add one drop into a watertight baseball stadium. The deposited volume doubles every minute (i.e., one minute later, we add two more drops, then four in the next minute, eight in the next, then sixteen, and so on). How long would it take to fill the entire stadium? Sitting at the top row, we’d watch for 45 minutes as the water covered the field. Then at the 48-minute mark, 50% of the stadium would be filled. Yes, that’s only 3 minutes from practically empty to half full. At this point, we have just 60 seconds to get out: the water will be spilling before the clock hits 49 minutes.

This is an important dynamic to understand and keep in mind because it applies to most things. Another example: it took over 2 million years of human prehistory and history for the world’s population to reach 1 billion, and less than 250 years more to grow to almost 8 billion.

#3 The system doesn’t vanish or change suddenly: Based on history, the Mad Max-like scenario some so feverishly advocate is not in our near future. The Roman Empire unraveled over 500 years. We may not be at the tipping point of our collapse or the last minute of the flooding stadium, as illustrated in #2 above. But time is relative, and those 60 seconds can last five, ten, fifteen years. Things are accelerating, but there’s no way to tell at which point in the curve we are.

That doesn’t mean things will be normal in that period. A lot has happened to people and places all over the Roman empire during those five-plus centuries: wars, plagues, invasions, droughts, shortages, all hell broke loose. Our civilization has already hit the iceberg, and the current order is crumbling. There will be shocks along the way, some small and some big. But SHTF is a process, not an event.

#4 History repeats, but always with a twist: That’s because nature works in cycles, and humans react to scarcity and abundance predictably and in the same ways. Also, we’re helpless in the face of the most significant and recurring events. But things are never the same. Technology improves, social rules change, humankind advances, the population grows. This (and lots more) adds a variability factor to the magnitude, gravity, and reach of outcomes.

#5 SHTF is about scarcity: A shrink in resources invariably leads to changes in the individual’s standard of living or entire society (depending on the circumstances, depth, and reach of the disaster or collapse). Then it starts affecting life itself (i.e., people dying). Essentially, when things really hit the fan, abundance vanishes, and pretty much everything reverts to the mean: food becomes replenishment, drinking becomes hydration, sleeping becomes rest, home becomes shelter, and so on. Surviving is accepting and adapting to that.

#6 The consequences matter more than the type of event: I’ll admit to being guilty of debating probable causes of SHTF more often than I should, mainly when it comes to the economy and finance going bust. That’s from living in a third-world country, with all the crap that comes with it. It’s what I have to talk, warn, and give advice about. I still find it essential to be aware and thoughtful of the causes. But it’s for the consequences that we must prepare for: instability, corruption, bureaucracy, criminality, inflation, social unrest, divisiveness, wars, and all sorts of conflicts and disruptions that affect us directly.

#7 Life goes on: Humankind advances through hardship but thrives in routine. We crave normalcy and peace, and over the long term, pursue them. Contrary to what many think, life goes on even during SHTF. And things tend to return to normal after the immediate threats cease or get contained. At least some level of normal, considering the circumstances. For example, in occupied France, the bistros and cafés continued serving and entertaining the population and even the invaders (the Nazi army). It was hard, as is always the case anywhere there’s war, poverty, tyranny – but that doesn’t mean the world has ended.

#8 SHTF pileup: Disasters and collapses add instability, volatility, and fragility to the system, which can compound and cause further disruptions. Sometimes, unfavorable cycles on various fronts (nature and civilization) can also converge and generate a perfect storm. It’s crucial to consider that and try to prepare as best we can for multiple disasters happening at once or in sequence, on various levels, collective and individual – even if psychologically and mentally. And if the signs are any indication, we’re entering such a period of simultaneous challenges.

#9 Snowball effect: Daisy based her excellent article on the 10 most likely ways to die when SHTF on the principle of large-scale die-off caused by a major disaster, like an EMP or other. This theory is controversial and the object of endless discussions. Some say it’s an exaggeration. But in my opinion, that’s leaving a critical factor out of the equation.

Consider the following: according to WPR and the CDC, before COVID-19 and Vaxxes, the mortality rate in the US was well below 1% (2.850.000 per year, or about 8.100 per day). If the mortality rate increases to just 5%, this alone would spark other SHTFs, potentially more serious and harmful than the first. That five-fold jump in mortality would result in more than 16 million dead per year or 44.000 per day. That’s 5% we’re talking about, not 20 or 30. If there’s even a protocol to deal with something like that, I’m not aware. It would be catastrophic on many levels over a shorter period (say, a few months).

Early in the CV19 pandemic, some cities had trouble burying the dead, and the death rate was still below 1%. Sure, other factors were playing. But the point is, things can snowball: consequences and implications are too complex and potentially far-reaching. Think about the effects on the system.

#10 SHTF is a situation, but it’s also a place: Things are hitting the fan somewhere right now. Not in the overblowing media but the physical world: the Texas border, third-world prisons, gang-ruled Haiti, in Taliban-raided Afghanistan, in the crackhouse just a few blocks from an affluent neighborhood, under the bridges of many big cities worldwide, in volcano-hit islands. There are thousands of places where people are bugging out, suffering, or dying of all causes at this very moment. If you’re not in any SHTF, consider yourself lucky. Be grateful, too: being able to prepare is a luxury.

#11 Choosing one way or another has a price: Being unprepared and wrong has a price. However, so does being prepared and wrong. Though some benefits exist regardless of what happens, the investment in terms of time, finance, and emotion to be prepared could be applied elsewhere or used for other finalities (career, a business, relationships, etc.) rather than some far-out collapse.

Since so much in SHTF is unknown and open, and resources are limited even when things are normal, survival and preparedness are essentially trade-offs. We must read the signals, weigh the options, consider the probabilities, make an option, and face the consequences. That’s why striving for balance is so important.

#12 SHTF is dirty, smelly, ugly: This is undoubtedly one of the most striking characteristics of SHTF: how bad some places and situations can be. Most people have no idea, and they don’t want to know about this. Those who fantasize about being in SHTF should think twice. Abject misery and despair have a distinct smell of excrement, sewage, death, rotting material, pollution, trash, burned stuff, and all kinds of dirt imaginable. And insects. The movies don’t show these things. But bad smells and insects infest everything and everywhere, and it can be maddening.

During my street survival training, I get to visit some really awful places and witness horrible things. The folks eventually going out with me invariably get shocked, sometimes even sickened, when they see decadence up and close for the first time. Even ones used to dealing with the nasties – it’s hard not to get affected.

For instance, drug consumption hotspots are so smelly and nasty that someone really must have to be on crack just to stand being there. It’s hell on earth, and I can’t think of another way to describe these and other places like third-world prisons, trash deposits, and many others. Early on, being in these places would make me question why I do this. It never becomes “normal.” We just adapt. But seeing these realities changes our life and the way we see things.

#13 The Grid is fragile: It’s baffling how this escapes so many. Most people I know are in constant marvel with modern civilization. They look around, pointing and saying, “Are you crazy? Too big to fail! There’s no way this can go away! Nothing has ever happened!“.

We have someone to take our trash, slaughter, process our food, treat our sick, purify our water, treat our sewage, protect us from wrongdoers and evil people (and keep them locked), control the traffic, and defend our rights. Peeking behind the curtains is a red pill moment. What keeps The Grid up and running is not something small, but it’s fragile. The natural state of things is not an insipid, artificially controlled environment. On the positive side, it makes us feel more grateful, humble, and also more responsible.

#14 The frog in the boiling water: That’s you and me and everyone around us. There’s no other way around it. We’re the suckers who get squeezed and pay the bill whenever something happens, anywhere and everywhere. It’s always our freedom, rights, money, and privacy that gets attacked, threatened, stolen.

Not only because the 1% screws us at the top, but because we’re the big numbers, the masses. And only those who work and produce something can bear the brunt of whatever bad happens to society and civilization. Make no mistake: whenever the brown stuff hits the fan, it will fall on us. It’s no reason to revolt but to acknowledge that, ultimately, we’re responsible for ourselves.

#15 People can make things worse: Just have a look around and see what’s happening. Selco himself will tell you that the most dangerous thing about the SHTF is other people.

Conclusion: Sometimes, the mechanics, brutality, and harshness of SHTF end up in the background of personal narratives and emotional accounts. Being more knowledgeable and cognizant of some general aspects of collapses may allow flexibility, creativity, improvisation, adaptation, resiliency, and other broad and effective strategies. Or, simply provide material for reflection and debate, really.

Either way, even those who haven’t been through collapse can still learn from history, from others’ experiences, from human behavior, from the facts. Just be sure to see the world for what it is and not from what you think. Because it will go its own way, and reality will assert itself all the same.

What are your thoughts about the dynamics of an SHTF scenario? Are there any you want to add? Does this match up with your personal expectations? Let’s discuss it in the comments."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

- https://www.theorganicprepper.com/

"Whatever Your Fate Is..."

“Whatever your fate is, whatever the hell happens, you say, “This is what I need.” It may look like a wreck, but go at it as though it were an opportunity, a challenge. If you bring love to that moment - not discouragement - you will find the strength there. Any disaster you can survive is an improvement in your character, your stature, and your life. What a privilege! This is when the spontaneity of your own nature will have a chance to flow. Then, when looking back at your life, you will see that the moments which seemed to be great failures, followed by wreckage, were the incidents that shaped the life you have now. You’ll see this is really true. Nothing can happen to you that is not positive. Even though it looks and feels at the moment like a negative crisis, it is not. The crisis throws you back, and when you are required to exhibit strength, it comes.”

~ Joseph Campbell

"Knowing..."

“Knowing can be a curse on a person’s life. I’d traded in a pack of lies for a pack of truth, and I didn’t know which one was heavier. Which one took the most strength to carry around? It was a ridiculous question, though, because once you know the truth, you can’t ever go back and pick up your suitcase of lies. Heavier or not, the truth is yours now.”

- Sue Monk Kidd