Bill Bonner, "Think Like An Argentine"

"Think Like An Argentine"

A local businessman explains how 

"gringo" thinking misses the nuance...

by Bill Bonner

"When dem cotton balls get rotten

You can’t pick very much cotton..."

~ Lead Belly

“You need to think like an Argentine. You see everything in black or white…legal or illegal; that doesn’t work down here. Everything here is a shade of gray.” To our recent complaints against the simpleminded nuttiness of ‘us vs. them,’ good vs. evil, we add the advice came from a local businessman. We had driven out to a large, flat valley in the eastern part of Salta province. Farmers there cultivate as many as 75,000 acres – huge, industrial-scale agriculture.

Farm products are the source of Argentina’s wealth, and more importantly of her foreign exchange. And farmers – or, at least these farmers – seem prosperous. How do they do it?Prices are doubling every year. Many parts and supplies are almost impossible to get. And to make it worse, the government hands out so much “welfare” money, many people no longer want to do the hard work farms require.

A Time to Reap: “The ‘planes’ [various welfare programs] don’t give you a lot of money,” explained our retired foreman on Monday. “Some of the payments are only about $100 US per month. But a guy works full time on a farm; what does he get? Maybe only $350 for a month. I guess he figures the difference is just not worth it. And then, he forgets how to work. So, even if they want to get back on the job, they don’t have the habits they need. They’re no longer used to hard work…and can’t take it.”

Part of the secret to these large farms in the East is that they don’t need many people. Up at the ranch, we have 8 full time employees tending our grapes and herding our cattle. And when it is time to round up the cattle…or pick the grapes…we hire extras, when we can find them.

“Out here,” our business informant continued, “we might have only one employee per 5,000 acres. Everything is mechanized. The tractors are huge. So, are the planters and the harvesters. A guy might pass through the field just three or four times per year. He sprays on a herbicide to kill the weeds. He then goes over it with a planter; we don’t plow or disc up the soil. If we did, it would blow away. And then, he harvests. The genetically modified plants don’t need as much attention as they used to.” He was showing us a field planted with cotton.

The Inflation Tax: “See these plants. We used to have to fumigate 4 or 5 times to kill the bugs. Now, these plants have been improved. They’re poison to most of the insects that used to eat them. The bugs just drop dead.”

But the technical advances, here in Argentina, have been offset by political set-backs. These crops are designed for the global market…and expected to sell at world market prices. So, the government – desperate for revenue – imposes “retentions” on them. It’s a tax the gaucho feds collect even before any profit is made. That is, it’s a tax on the export of the commodities, whether you made any money producing them or not.

“That’s nothing,” our expert continued. “Inflation is running about 100%...so the inflation tax is about 50%. A year from now, your money will only be worth half of what it is now. What can we do? The seeds, machines, pesticides and other things we need are quoted in dollars. And we’ve got pesos. Every day, our costs go up. And we might have gotten our income – from selling a crop – a year ago.

Sometimes you can’t get anyone to take your crop for cash. All you can get is post-dated checks. And then, you just have to pray that the peso doesn’t lose too much value before you can cash your check. That’s why you’ve got to think like an Argentine, not like a gringo.

Sometimes we can’t get a tractor part here in Argentina, so we go to Bolivia….and then smuggle it back across the border. Some guys even take the corn they’ve grown in Argentina, and sneak it across the border and sell it there. Of course, it’s illegal…but what are we supposed to do? The government cheats us. We cheat the government. What a crazy society, but that’s the way it works. In Bolivia, you can sell your corn for dollars. And you pay no tax. That’s illegal too…but so what?”

BGT - A New Dimension: The Argentine tax collectors use satellites to keep an eye on what farmers are growing. When harvest time comes, they expect to be paid. “Yes, of course they do that,” explained our inside source. “The trick is to keep a set of records for most of your crops that appears impeccable. They must look so tight that the tax agents don’t question them. And then, when asked what happened to the corn or beans or cotton. You simply explain that it was attacked by bugs, or even though the plants looked good from the air, they produced no fruit. Or they dried up and we got nothing from that field. There are so many things that can go wrong in farming, they can’t argue with it...if your other records are in order. The foreigners [he looked at us gravely] never seem to get it. You think it’s either/or. Either it’s okay…or it’s not. Legal or illegal. Good or bad.”

Our interlocutor was adding a new dimension to our complaint about bad guy theory. “You may think I’m a ‘bad guy,’ as you put it, because I break the law. But I say, they’re the bad guys; they made laws we have to break. You say it’s dishonest. Or illegal. And, of course it is. But if farmers tried to comply with all the government’s laws, they’d go out of business. Who’d produce the food then?”

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"Prices Continue To Rise At Kroger! Not Good! What Next?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, 3/9/23:

"Prices Continue To Rise At Kroger!

 Not Good! What Next?"

"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing more price increases on groceries! It's getting rough out here as grocery prices continue to go up. We go some shelf stable items that are a good idea to stock up on, and prepare for the future!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"So We Never Live..."

"We do not rest satisfied with the present. We anticipate the future as too slow in coming, as if in order to hasten its course; or we recall the past, to stop its too rapid flight. So imprudent are we that we wander in the times which are not ours, and do not think of the only one which belongs to us; and so idle are we that we dream of those times which are no more, and thoughtlessly overlook that which alone exists. For the present is generally painful to us. We conceal it from our sight, because it troubles us; and if it be delightful to us, we regret to see it pass away. We try to sustain it by the future, and think of arranging matters which are not in our power, for a time which we have no certainty of reaching. Let each one examine his thoughts, and he will find them all occupied with the past and the future. We scarcely ever think of the present; and if we think of it, it is only to take light from it to arrange the future. The present is never our end. The past and the present are our means; the future alone is our end. So we never live, but we hope to live; and, as we are always preparing to be happy, it is inevitable we should never be so."

- Blaise Pascal

"Ex Obscurum"

Full screen recommended.

"Ex Obscurum, Adagio for Strings, Op. 11"

"From emotional turmoil, hatred, and addiction the miracle of recovery begins in this Spadecaller Video entitled "Ex Obscurum" (From Darkness). Featuring original poetry narrated by the author and visual artist, Matthew Schwartz. Composer Samuel Barber's powerful musical score, adopted for the movie "Platoon", (Adagio for Strings) sets the background for this spiritual exodus "From Darkness."

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The Addiction To Easy Money Is Over; Stop Making Excuses; You're Too Scared To Prepare For Reality"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/8/23:

"The Addiction To Easy Money Is Over; 

Stop Making Excuses; You're Too Scared To Prepare For Reality"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Gorgeous spiral galaxy NGC 3521 is a mere 35 million light-years away, toward the constellation Leo. Relatively bright in planet Earth's sky, NGC 3521 is easily visible in small telescopes but often overlooked by amateur imagers in favor of other Leo spiral galaxies, like M66 and M65. It's hard to overlook in this colorful cosmic portrait, though. 

Spanning some 50,000 light-years the galaxy sports characteristic patchy, irregular spiral arms laced with dust, pink star forming regions, and clusters of young, blue stars. Remarkably, this deep image also finds NGC 3521 embedded in gigantic bubble-like shells. The shells are likely tidal debris, streams of stars torn from satellite galaxies that have undergone mergers with NGC 3521 in the distant past."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210402.html

Chet Raymo, “Caught In The Middle”

“Caught In The Middle”

by Chet Raymo

"It doesn't take a genius to recognize that human males have a propensity for intergroup violence, and that the killing is often accompanied by rape. One need only read the newspapers. The only question is to what extent these tendencies are innate or culturally inculcated. Nature or nurture? Or both? A book, "Sex and War: How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World," by population biologist Malcolm Potts and science writer Thomas Hayden, dishes up a bit of both. The violence is in our (male) genes, they maintain, but it is susceptible to cultural control.

What the authors calls "behavioral propensity to engage in male coalitional violence" evolved as far back as the common ancestor of humans and chimps, they claim, although our other close relations, bonobos and gorillas, seem to have found more peaceful ways of living. Genes predispose, say Potts and Hayden, but cultural forces can alleviate the worst of male nastiness. By empowering women to be leaders in cultural, social and political spheres, the violent propensities of men can be restrained. Further, empowerment will give women control of their reproductive destinies, and will therefore result in fewer offspring. Less population pressure will reduce other factors fueling violence and conflict, the authors claim.

Anthropologist Hillard Kaplan reviews the book in the October 9, 2009, issue of "Science." He agrees that the available evidence suggests that male intergroup violence has a long evolutionary history. He believes this tendency was exacerbated into large scale warfare with the development of agriculture and the associated larger population groups and competition for fertile land. Kaplan believes that male group violence is stoked by poor economic prospect for young males. To the empowerment of women he would add education and jobs as a way to reduce antisocial behavior.

There is nothing particularly new or revolutionary about any of this. Progress? Yes, I suppose so, but we clearly have a long way to go before women exercise equal power in society, or before young men in the developing world, especially, have an economic stake in social stability. Meanwhile, as the painting above by Jacques-Louis David, "The Sabine Women," suggests, women and children will continue to be caught in the middle.”

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

"Too Often..."

"Too often we underestimate the power of a touch, a smile, a kind word,

a listening ear, an honest compliment, or the smallest act of caring,

all of which have the potential to turn a life around."

- Leo Buscaglia

"Go To The Stores And Stock Up On Meat Now Because The US Cattle Herd Hit Lowest Level In 61 Years"

Full screen recommended.

"Go To The Stores And Stock Up On Meat Now

 Because The US Cattle Herd Hit Lowest Level In 61 Years"

By Epic Economist

"Get prepared to eat a lot less beef this year because the size of the national cattle herd has shrunk, and now livestock producers are warning that there won’t be enough meat supplies to meet demand in the months ahead. Prices are also expected to explode, and of course, all of this is happening in the context of a much larger crisis that is turning not only America’s but the world’s food supply chain upside down.

Our food supply is steadily shrinking, and now we’re clearly starting to see the effects of drought, crop failures, and the massive loss of cattle herds in our food systems. In fact, the latest biannual report from the USDA shows that the national beef cow herd has dropped to 89.3 million, marking the lowest level since 2015. Of that number, 38.3 million cows and heifers have just calved. Today, there are only 28.9 million beef cows in the U.S. food system, which are those explicitly bred for slaughter and meat sales. That figure is down nearly four percent from last year and the lowest the agency has recorded since 1962.

The problem is that in 1962, only 184 million people lived in the United States. And right now, roughly 331 million live in America. If back then, the fall in the number of beef cows caused shortages and pushed prices to soar, we have every reason to believe that the same is going to happen in 2023. At the moment, many everyday Americans may not be realizing the gravity of this supply crunch just yet because we are still buying and consuming cattle that were slaughtered some time ago.

But it won’t take too long before inventories start to run dry all over the country, says Beef Magazine editor Ryan McGeeney. With beef availability projected to decline sharply in 2023, and beef demand remaining on solid footing, the most recent USDA monthly estimates peg the domestic per-person beef supply to decline by 5.6% next year. If this occurs, it will be the largest annual decline in U.S. consumer beef availability since 1987.

So if you don’t want to eat less meat, securing your supply now is crucial. In 2003, when the supply dropped by 4%, prices jumped nearly 25%. The same happened in 2011, when a 3.9% decline in supplies led to a 20% price increase, and in 2014 when a 3.7% reduction contributed to a 23% price jump. According to Restaurant Dive, we could be looking at a similar price spike for beef in 2023, which already rose by 22% from 2020 to 2022. Beef prices are expected to go up by 21% this summer. No wonder why the corporate media is already calling beef “a luxury meat".

The cattle sell-off can also result in the closure of thousands more small, local meat producers, as they are unable to compete with larger, more established players in the industry. This will be a continuation of over 100,000 small farms closing down in America due to the odds being stacked against them and low-quality, imported goods flooding the market, Beef Magazine highlights.

It is safe to say that this is just the beginning of a much larger crisis that will shake the world to the core. Global food production is dropping precipitously due to climate change. Farmers are running out of topsoil, fertilizer supplies are getting insanely tight, and diseases are decimating livestock all around the U.S. Don’t be mistaken: the people in power know exactly what is about to happen, but they aren’t saying a thing because they don’t want to alarm the general public. But we need to keep our eyes open and start making preparations for ourselves because, at the end of the day, we will be on our own."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Orland Park, Illinois, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Cure..."

 

"The Stage Is Set for Hybrid World War III"

"The Stage Is Set for Hybrid World War III"

By Pepe Escobar

"A powerful feeling rhythms your skin and drums up your soul as you’re immersed in a long walk under persistent snow flurries, pinpointed by selected stops and enlightening conversations, crystallizing disparate vectors one year after the start of the accelerated phase of the proxy war between U.S./NATO and Russia. That’s how Moscow welcomes you: the undisputed capital of the 21st century multipolar world.

A long, walking meditation impregnates on us how President Putin’s address – rather, a civilizational speech – last week was a game-changer when it comes to the demarcation of the civilizational red lines we are all now facing. It acted like a powerful drill perforating the less than short, actually zero term memory of the Collective West. No wonder it exercised a somewhat sobering effect contrasting the non-stop Russophobia binge of the NATOstan space.

Alexey Dobrinin, Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Russia, has correctly described Putin’s address as “a methodological basis for understanding, describing and constructing multipolarity.”

For years some of us have been showing how the emerging multipolar world is defined – but goes way beyond – high speed interconnectivity, physical and geoeconomic. Now, as we reach the next stage, it’s as if Putin and Xi Jinping, each in their own way, are conceptualizing the two key civilizational vectors of multipolarity. That’s the deeper meaning of the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership, invisible to the naked eye.

Metaphorically, it also speaks volumes that Russia’s pivot to the East, towards the rising sun, now irreversible, was the only logical path to follow as, to quote Dylan, darkness dawns at the break of noon across the West.

As it stands, with the wobblin’, ragin’ Hegemon lost in its own pre-fabricated daze, the real runners of the show feeding burning flesh to irredeemably mediocre political “elites”, China may have a little more latitude than Russia, as the Middle Kingdom is not – yet – under the same existential pressure Russia has been put under.

Whatever happens next geopolitically, Russia is at heart a – giant – obstacle on the warmongering path of the Hegemon: the ultimate target is top “threat” China. Putin’s ability to size up our extremely delicate geopolitical moment – via a dose of highly concentrated, undiluted realism – is something to behold. And then Foreign Minister Lavrov provided the sweet cherry on top, calling the hapless U.S. ambassador for a hardcore dress down: oh yeah, this is war, hybrid and otherwise, and your NATO mercenaries as well as your junk hardware are legitimate targets.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, now more than ever relishing his “unplugged” status, made it all very clear: “Russia risks being torn apart if it stops a special military operation (SMO) before victory is achieved.” And the message is even more acute because it represents the – public – cue to the Chinese leadership at the Zhongnahhai to understand: whatever happens next, this is the Kremlin’s unmovable official position.

The Chinese restore the Mandate of Heaven: All these vectors are evolving as ramifications of the bombing of the Nord Streams, the only military attack – cum industrial terrorism – ever perpetrated against the EU, leave the Collective West paralyzed, dazed and confused.

Perfectly in tandem with Putin’s address, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs chose the geopolitical/existential moment to finally take the gloves off, with a flourish: enter the "U.S. Hegemony and its Perils" essay cum report, which became an instant massive hit across Chinese media, examined with relish all across East Asia.

This blistering enumeration of all the Hegemon’s lethal follies, for decades, constitutes a point of no return for trademark Chinese diplomacy, so far characterized by passivity, ambivalence, actual restraint and extreme politeness. So such turnaround is yet another proud “achievement” of the outright Sinophobia and mendacious hostility exhibited by American neocons and neoliberal-cons.

Scholar Quan Le notes that this document may be regarded as the traditional form – but now filled with contemporary wording – the Chinese Sovereigns used in their millenary past before going to war.

It is in fact an axio-epistemo-political proclamation justifying a serious war, which in the Chinese universe means a war ordained by a Higher Power capable of restoring Justice & Harmony in a troubled Universe. After the proclamation the warriors are equipped to strike mercilessly at the entity judged to be troubling the Harmony of the Universe: in our case, the psycho Straussian neo-cons and neoliberal-cons commanded as rabid dogs by the real American elites.

Of course in the Chinese universe there’s no place for “God” – much less a Christian version; “God” for the Chinese means the Beauty-Goodness-Truth trinity, Timeless Heavenly Universal Principles. The closest concept for a non-Chinese to understand is Dao: the Way. So the Way to the Beauty-Goodness-Truth trinity represents symbolically Beauty-Goodness-Truth.

So what Beijing did – and the Collective West is completely clueless about it – was to issue an axio-epistemo-political proclamation explaining the legitimacy of their quest to restore Timeless Heavenly Universal Principles. They will be fulfilling the Mandate of Heaven – nothing less. The West won’t know what it hit them until it’s too late.

It was predictable that sooner or later the heirs of Chinese civilization would have had enough – and formally identify, mirroring Putin’s analysis, the upstart Hegemon as the premier source of chaos, inequality and war across the planet. Empire of Chaos, Lies and Plunder, in a nutshell. To put it bluntly, in streetwise language, the hell with this Americana crap of hegemony being justified by “manifest destiny”. So here we are. You want Hybrid War? We will return the favor.

Back to the Wolfowitz Doctrine: A former CIA advisor has issued a quite sobering report on a pebble along the rocky way: a possible endgame in Ukraine, now that even some elite-run parrots are contemplating a “way out” with minimal loss of face.

It’s never idle to remember that way back in 2000, the year Vladimir Putin was first elected as President, in the pre-9/11 world, rabid neocon Paul Wolfowitz was side by side with Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski in a huge Ukraine-U.S. symposium in Washington, where he unabashedly raved about provoking Russia to go to war with Ukraine, and committed to finance the destruction of Russia. Everyone remembers the Wolfowitz doctrine – which was essentially a tawdry, pedestrian rehash of Brzezinski: to keep permanent U.S. hegemony it was primordial to pre-empt the emergence of any potential competitor. Now we have two nuclear-powered, tech savvy peer competitors united by a comprehensive strategic partnership.

As I finished my long walk paying due respect by the Kremlin to the heroes of 1941-1945, the feeling was inescapable that as much as Russia is a master of riddles and China is a master of paradox, their strategists are now working full time on how to return all strands of Hybrid War against the Hegemon. One thing is certain: unlike boastful Americans, they won’t outline any breakthroughs until they are already in effect."

- https://www.lewrockwell.com/

"The Coming Crisis"

"The Coming Crisis"

By The ZMan

"Every war is a part of a larger story of relations between the nations that fought in the war and the war in Ukraine is not an exception. This war started a year ago, but it is part of the story that started in 2014. of course, that chapter was preceded by the aftermath of the Cold War. In the case of the neocons driving American policy, their portion of this story begins during the Trial of the 193. Like all stories, the war will end and what will follow are more chapters to close out this story arc.

Within the war itself there are chapters. In the case of Ukraine, the first chapters could be called the pre-awakening. Both the Russians and Ukrainians assumed this would be a short affair ending in rounds of talks. The Europeans, in contrast, thought it would be a short affair as well, but instead ending in a Russian collapse. They had been assured by their American handlers that Russia was a hollow country. Once the sanctions hit them, the peasants would revolt.

Interestingly, all parties kept on believing their version of the plot even after it should have been clear they were wrong. The Russians kept pressing for negotiations, even after Ukraine told them Washington would not allow it. The Europeans kept pushing new sanctions packages, even after it was clear the Russian economy was not going to collapse and there would be no peasant revolt. For a few months last spring and summer, everyone stuck with the old script.

It appears that it was the Russians who were the first to realize that the script was wrong and that they needed to rethink things. The mobilization of reserves along with a reorganization of their military structure in Ukraine followed. The Russians figured out that this is a long war of attrition between Moscow and its allies versus the American Empire and its allies. What we have seen for the last six months is a slow, deliberate grind of the Ukrainians by the Russians.

We are about to see the final closing of one chapter of this war and the opening of a new chapter due to developments on the battlefield. The first and most important bit of news is the encirclement of a town called Bakhmut. If you look at this pro-Ukrainian deployment map, you see the line of contact in Ukraine. In this case, pro-Ukrainian does not mean pure propaganda. It simply relies primarily on Ukrainian sources to assemble the map and unit positions.

If you zoom into the area dead center of the line of contact, you will find the town called Bakhmut and see a large grouping of Ukrainian forces. They have been throwing everything they can into this town in order to hold it. The Russians now have the town surrounded, with tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops inside it. It appears that Zelensky has instructed the forces inside this cauldron to fight to the last man, much as he did last year with the Mariupol garrison.

There are two primary reason Zelensky and the general staff are sacrificing tens of thousands of men for this town. One reason is strategic. It is the keystone to this defense line in the Donbas. If it falls, the Ukrainians will have to fall back to their last line of defense east of the Dnieper River. That last defensive line is not as built up as the current defensive positions. The Ukrainians are buying as much time as they can in order to build up that new defense line.

The other reason for this massive sacrifice of men and machines is the general psychology of the war on the Ukrainian side. They have been told since the start that they just needed to hang on until the Russians crumbled. Then they were told to hang on until the West could provide wonder weapons. Now they are hanging on because they have no other option. For Zelensky, this war is about buying time while hoping for some change that will save him from his fate.

Another reason for the great turning of the page that is coming in this war relates to that waiting strategy of the Ukrainians. They are running out of supplies. Reports keep coming in from Ukrainian sources that they are out of ammunition. The reason they are out of ammunition is the West cannot get ammunition to them fast enough. The reason for that is the West is running out of ammunition as well. After a year of ground war, the Western warehouses are now empty.

The issue has become so critical that the people running foreign policy had Biden sign “a presidential waiver of some statutory requirements (Waiver) authorizing the use of the Defense Production Act (DPA) to allow the Department of Defense (DoD) to more aggressively build the resiliency of America’s defense industrial base and secure its supply chains.” This is the first step in transitioning the economy to wartime, which means prioritizing defense over civilian items.

Something similar is afoot in Europe. What the West has come to realize is they were all wrong about the Russian economy. It has performed better over the last year than the European economies. They were also wrong about Russia’s standing in the world, particularly with other major powers like China and India. They have not been willing to go along with Washington’s war on Moscow. Eighty percent of the world’s population now supports the Russian side in this conflict.

Another piece of this is a bit of reality Western leaders have ignored for so long they stopped thinking about it. That is, the industrial base of the West no longer exists as a practical matter. Generations of offshoring and global supply chain management have left Western countries with a tiny manufacturing base. China now has more manufacturing capacity than the U.S. and Europe combined. Throw in Russia, Brazil and India and you see the problem.

The shape of the next chapter in this new global war is still unclear, but one storyline will be the looming political crisis in the West. The sanctions regime is simply unsustainable for Europe so it must come to an end. It cannot come to end until the war in the Ukraine has come to an end. The trouble is European political leaders have ruled out any end other than Ukrainian tanks rolling through Moscow. Europe has created an unsolvable problem for itself.

Another part of the story could be a change in China. For a long time the Chinese have viewed their relationship with Washington as purely economic. If they did good business with Washington, everything else solved itself. Beijing now sees that things have changed and so they are changing. All of the war talk over Taiwan has finally convinced the Chinese to adjust their position. Sino-American relations will no longer be about business, but about great power conflict.

Of course, all of this will be happening against the backdrop of a political class in Washington that looks like the shuffleboard courts in Boca. Everyone who wants to be Pericles in this war is too old to say the name clearly. Of course, Washington is full of potential Cleons among the younger generations of politicians, but none of them are bright enough to understand it. As this war enters the crisis chapters, the West is desperately short of men who are good in a crisis."

- https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=29425

o

"Scott Ritter - 

Ukrainian Casualties in the Donbass, Bakhmut"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Higher than Anticipated"

"Higher than Anticipated"

The Fed's wet blanket, stocks turn south, 

nostalgia for the Old Republic and more...

by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

"Well…it’s one, two, three

What are we fightin’ for?

Don’t ask me ‘cause I don’t give a damn

The next stop is Vietnam.

And it’s five, six, seven, eight

Open up those pearly gates.

Ain’t got time to wonder why,

‘Cause we’re all gonna die."

~ Country Joe and the Fish

Salta, Argentina - "The news yesterday had everything “dropping fast:” Reuters: "Fed's Powell opens the door to higher and possibly faster rate hikes."

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates more than expected in response to recent strong data and is prepared to move in larger steps if the "totality" of incoming information suggests tougher measures are needed to control inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday.

"The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," the U.S. central bank chief said in opening remarks at a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee."

Greater Challenges: As we’ve been saying…the Fed has to raise rates and lower stock prices. It will keep at it until something goes very wrong. Then, when the going gets tough, the Fed is still likely to abandon its war on inflation. Soon, it will retreat, and conduct only rear-guard harassment operations. (Tomorrow, a businessman explains how the Argentine economy ‘works’ with 100% inflation.)

Money is our beat here. But America’s financial system…and your money…face much greater challenges than just a bear market on Wall Street. A friend sends this from the Argentine press: “Not sure what to make of this: "US Congresswoman warns Buenos Aires not to build Chinese fighter jets." What to make of it? What in the world is the politician thinking?

We are exploring the events and trends that are likely to cause the ‘cluster’ catastrophe headed our way. Readers may sense some indignation and disgust in our tone; but ours is a prejudiced view. We liked the Old Republic. Yes, of course, it slipped into sin more than once. Yes, it over-spent occasionally. Yes, it made terrible mistakes and by mid-20th century had already bitten into the imperial fruit.

Way Back When: But before 1971, no Congresswoman, no matter how dim, would have thought it was her job to tell the gauchos what to do. Before 1971, America’s money was still good. So was its reputation.

We remember when gasoline cost 25 cents a gallon, when we could get on a plane without a pat-down and when we could open a bank account and get a free toaster oven, rather than a 3rd-degree interrogation. There was no war on drugs, no ‘homeland’ and no ‘Homeland Security’…and no snoops reading our mail… or telling us what kind of kitchen stove we should use. And there were a substantial number of citizens, in and out of government, who still wanted to balance the budget at home and leave people alone overseas.

Yes, the US was, then as now, engaged in a pointless war…but at least there were people in the streets challenging it. Today, the real ‘conservatives’ are all gone…the Democrats are all pro-war, Republicans too…and the citizens go along with everything – Covid Hysteria, war fever, debt, diversity and dysfunction. The Fed says inflation should be at 2%? Sure, why not?

Permission-Based Living: Citizens of an honest republic can decide for themselves when to go out of doors. But the subjects of an empire ask permission. They get bread; they must join in the circuses too. But people come to believe what they must believe when they must believe it. If they were told to stand on one leg and recite the pledge of allegiance, they would do so.

Even fruitcakes eventually go stale. Empires reach their ‘sell-by’ dates too. Now in its corrupt and degenerate stage, at home and abroad the empire implements its Bad Guy Theory. “You’re either with us, or against us,” say Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden.

Here’s an example. Ms. Janet Yellen went to visit the Ukraine. In her statement she made it clear that good and evil were butting heads: “Russia’s barbaric attacks continue - but Kyiv stands strong and free.” Nor did she have any doubt about what side we are on: “America will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes”

So easy. So simple. Good guys vs. bad guys. But what a bunch of morons. More to come…"

Joel’s Note: “We maintain that the terminal rate of the Fed’s rate-hike campaign is closer to 6% than 5%.” That was Bonner Private Research’s macro analyst, Dan Denning, writing to members back in November. Dan was looking at the possibility/probability of another recession, based on the yield curve having inverted. As you can see, past recessions (as indicated by the gray areas) have followed inversions with a fair degree of reliability.

Click image for larger size.

Will past be prologue? Continued Dan, citing the work of his compeer over on BPR’s paid research side…“What Investment Director Tom Dyson has called The Fed’s Wrecking Ball (a combination of higher rates and a run-off of its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet) has only just begun to hit the real economy. It will result in tighter credit, higher unemployment, and lower corporate earnings. Stocks have not yet ‘priced in’ a 2023 recession.”

The Fed will continue hiking, in other words, “until something breaks.” But what if stuff is already breaking? According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total household debt reached $16.90 trillion in Q4 2022, largely driven by swelling credit card debt, which is rapidly approaching the $1 TRILLION mark.

From the NY Fed’s website: "Credit card balances jump to $986 billion, marking a new series high."

"NEW YORK - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2022, increasing by $394 billion (2.4%) to $16.90 trillion. Balances now stand $2.75 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession.

Mortgage balances rose by $254 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.92 trillion at the end of December, marking a nearly $1 trillion increase in mortgage balances in 2022.

Credit card balances increased $61 billion in the fourth quarter to $986 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of $927 billion. Auto loan balances increased by $28 billion in the fourth quarter, consistent with the upward trajectory seen since 2011. Student loan balances now stand at $1.60 trillion, up by $21 billion from the previous quarter. In total, non-housing balances grew by $126 billion."

With Mr. Powell’s “higher than anticipated” rates now very much in the near future, it’s getting harder and harder for working Americans to get out from under the growing debt pile."

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"Why the Recession Is Always Six Months Away"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 3/8/23:

"Why the Recession Is Always Six Months Away"

"No one wants to admit where we are at. It’s very simple. We are knee-deep in a recession right now, but everyone wants to kick the can down the road. They want to tell us that it’s six months away."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

"Six months?" No, now...

"Widespread Civil Unrest Is Suddenly 

Erupting All Over The Globe"

"Hidden In Plain Sight: The World Economy Is Collapsing, But You Are Not Supposed To Know"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/8/23:

"Hidden In Plain Sight: The World Economy Is Collapsing,

 But You Are Not Supposed To Know"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

"Walmart Is Closing 269 Stores Nationwide"

o

"$2 Quadrillion in Global Debt Looms Over the Markets, 

Paper Assets Could Implode"

"Stock Up At Aldi Before The Next Price Increase! What's Coming?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures With Danno, 3/8/23:

"Stock Up At Aldi Before The Next

 Price Increase! What's Coming?"

"In today's vlog we are at Aldi, and are noticing some price increases on groceries! With prices going up all over the world, we are seeking out some options to stock up on, and prepare for the worst."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Don't Be A Delusional Zombie, Get Ready For More Inflation, Rate Hikes And A Depression"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/7/23:

"Don't Be A Delusional Zombie, Get Ready For 

More Inflation, Rate Hikes And A Depression"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The Coming Wave of Evictions Is More Than a Housing Crisis"

Full screen recommended.

"The Coming Wave of Evictions Is 

More Than a Housing Crisis"

by Epic Economist

"A devastating wave of evictions is about to hit the United States, and this is more than a reflection of the dire housing crisis the country is facing – but proof that we are in a rigged system that doesn’t allow us to build equity through homeownership and continues to force us into renting properties that are getting increasingly more expensive and precarious at the same time. Right now, distortions are getting so extreme in the rental market that evictions in middle-class suburbs are rising faster than in lower and upper-income neighborhoods. Our middle class is being hollowed out, and poverty levels are on the rise again. Today, virtually everyone in the country is cost-burdened by rent. And experts are warning that housing insecurity will be the future of the vast majority of the U.S. population as affluent investors control 40% of single-family rental homes and hike rent prices to astronomical highs.

For the longest time, being able to afford decent quality, stable housing in a safe neighborhood was a critical component of financial and personal security for middle-income Americans. But the latest data shows that with each passing month, more and more middle-class households are getting priced out of middle-class neighborhoods. The number of middle-class families evicted from their homes in suburbs across the country has been on the rise for years, according to Princeton researchers.

And today, the rate of evictions in middle-class suburbs is at the highest level on record, growing at a faster pace than evictions in low-income neighborhoods, the researchers found. The Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio, metropolitan area experienced the largest increase in suburban evictions. With evictions of middle-income households rising by 55%.

With rent prices set to rise even further this summer, this could trigger a major eviction crisis and leave lots of middle-class and former-middle-class renters struggling to find a place to live. The tight housing market we have today is not giving any chances for millions of middle-income earners to start building wealth via homeownership. Prospective home buyers have been forced to grapple with not just high mortgage rates and home values, but also, competition from investors with deep pockets.

Estimates from MetLife Investment Management indicate that Wall Street investors are going to control as much as 40% of single-family rental homes by 2027. And that's a bad thing for the rental market as a whole. For the first time ever, 44 million American renters are spending 30% of their income on rent or more, something Moody’s Analytics calls a “rent burden.” Middle-income households renting a two-bedroom apartment in most of our metropolitan areas must direct 41% of their incomes towards rent every month. Meanwhile, 17 million low-income workers lose up to 55% of their pay just to cover rent. They are considered “severely housing cost-burdened,” and they are a single unexpected event away from losing their homes.

Unfortunately, it seems like this has been the plan all along. First, government officials fueled the growth of the largest housing bubble we have ever seen. Then, they allowed investors to snatch the supply of homes that would otherwise be bought by U.S. families, forcing people to be subject to absurd price increases, dismantling the middle class, killing the dream of homeownership, and making housing insecurity the new normal. It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Our leaders have broken our housing system, and by now, it is too late to find an easy fix, so we will all have to deal with this the hard way."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Vangelis, “Beautiful Planet Earth”

Full screen recommended.

Vangelis, “Beautiful Planet Earth”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"These two mighty galaxies are pulling each other apart. Known as the "Mice" because they have such long tails, each spiral galaxy has likely already passed through the other. The long tails are created by the relative difference between gravitational pulls on the near and far parts of each galaxy. Because the distances are so large, the cosmic interaction takes place in slow motion - over hundreds of millions of years. 

NGC 4676 lies about 300 million light-years away toward the constellation of Bernice's Hair (Coma Berenices) and are likely members of the Coma Cluster of Galaxies. The featured picture was taken with the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera for Surveys in 2002. These galactic mice will probably collide again and again over the next billion years so that, instead of continuing to pull each other apart, they coalesce to form a single galaxy."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap211004.html

Chief Tecumseh, "So Live Your Life"

Full screen recommended.

RedFrost Motivation, 

Chief Tecumseh, "So Live Your Life"

Read by Shane Morris

"It's Just... Life"

“Bad things don’t happen to people because they deserve for them to happen. It just doesn’t work that way. It’s just… life. And no matter who we are, we have to take the hand we’re dealt, crappy though it may be, and try our very best to move forward anyway, to love anyway, to have hope anyway… to have faith that there’s a purpose to the journey we’re on.”

- Mia Sheridan

The Daily "Near You?"

Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico. Thanks for stopping by!

"A 'Greatest Depression' Scenario Is Unfolding, Be Ready For It"

Gregory Mannarino, 3/7/23:

"A 'Greatest Depression' Scenario Is Unfolding,

 Be Ready For It"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"The Weight of Russian Manpower is Crushing Ukrainians"

Full screen recommended.

"In Focus", 3/7/23:

"Douglas Macgregor, Straight Calls, 3/7/23:

"The Weight of Russian Manpower is Crushing Ukrainians"

"Analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of 

current geopolitical events in the United States and the world."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

o

Scott Ritter, 3/7/23:

"Grinding Down the Ukrainian Armed Forces"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Bill Bonner, "Bad Guy Rising"

"Bad Guy Rising"

A new enemy on the horizon, 

plus updates from life up in the Andes...

By Bill Bonner

Salta, Argentina - "Here’s the latest from Bloomberg: "China Warns US Risks Catastrophe With Moves to ‘Contain’ Beijing." "China’s new foreign minister warned that soaring US-China tensions risk blowing past any guardrails in the relationship, showing that divisions between the world’s biggest economies are becoming more entrenched.

“The US claims that it seeks to outcompete China but does not seek conflict,” Foreign Minister Qin Gang said Tuesday at his first news briefing since taking office late last year. “Yet in reality, its so-called competition aims to contain and suppress China in all respects and get the two countries locked in a zero-sum game.”

Let’s continue scanning the horizon, searching for the dust of an approaching ‘cluster.’ Like Apaches on the warpath, trouble may be headed our way. Today, we look at the warpath itself.

Wokish Crime and Time on the Vine: First, a brief update on life in the far Andes. Here, in the 1990s, the government gave the “originarios” permission to go on the warpath against local landowners. The land itself has changed hands peacefully for the last 400 years – or ever since it was conquered by the Spanish conquistadors.

The ‘originarios’ say they do not recognize the titles issued by the Spaniards, going back to the 16th century. And thanks to recent attempts to protect indigenous culture, squatters can declare themselves “originarios,” and they can’t be put off your land. There being a lot more potential ‘originarios’ than landowners, the local politicians, the police, and the courts, tend to take their side…especially when they are in conflict with a foreign, absentee landowner. So, while the government recognizes our title to the land, it doesn’t stop someone from fencing off part of it and building a house for himself.

But all is quiet…at least in our part of the pre-cordillera. The main trouble-maker on our ranch went to the police and charged us with theft (we moved some roof beams, illegally stored on our land….thus making it harder for her to put up another illegal house)…and with “gender violence,” a new, wokish crime leveled at men, just because they are men, and widely regarded as a joke. We counter-charged her with trespassing, squatting and so forth. All a waste of time.

The woman is living, unauthorized, on our land (one of many illegal residents!)…in a house built illegally. As a single mother (her companion, Carlos, drowned in a suspicious accident 2 years ago) she gets money from the government. But now, it looks like the trouble-maker made trouble for herself. “She’s so annoying to everyone,” reports Gustavo, our foreman, “that she’s made enemies of the other originarios. Everybody is hoping she’ll just move away.” The bigger problem for us is that too many calves die. More about that anon.

The Fin del Mundo: But apart from the ‘originario war.’ And, of course, the periodic droughts…the dead calves (10% of the births)…and losing money every year…life in the valley goes on. It rained this year. The grass is high. The cattle are fat. The grapes are ripening.

Normally, the grapes are harvested at this time of year. But a late frost delayed the budding out. Now, we have to worry that an early frost will destroy the grapes before they are ready to pick.

So, let’s go back to something easier: Bad Guy Theory (BGT). It’s the lamebrain idea that some people are good and others are bad. Naturally, we Americans are among the good ones. And since we are good guys, we can do what we want. Then, ‘bad’ things (blowing up an important pipeline, for example) magically become good.

Arguably, since WWII, no nation has done as many bad things as the US. We have that on the authority of a report from China. Patrick Lawrence reports: “U.S. Hegemony and Its Perils” is a thorough, carefully organized inventory of Washington’s imperial conduct, evidently written by one or more ministry officials who has or have done considerable reading and homework. While it is focused on the decades since the 1945 victories in Europe and the Pacific, in its indictment of U.S. policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean it reaches back to the earliest decades of our republic. For a taste of the tone, this from the opening section:

In 1823, the United States announced the Monroe Doctrine. While touting an “America for the Americans,” what it truly wanted was an “America for the United States.” Since then, the policies of successive U.S. governments toward Latin America and the Caribbean Region have been riddled with political interference, military intervention and regime subversion.

Heaven and Hell: The US is the only country to ever use a nuclear bomb – against civilians, no less. Twice. It has invaded 32 different countries (since WWII). It has meddled in foreign elections, assassinations, murders, coups d’etat – you name it. When it comes to ‘bad guy’ goings on, the US is Number One. Of course, all this was done by the ‘good guys,’ so it was done for a good reason, even if it didn’t always turn out so good.

Even at home, America’s shining goodness is a little tarnished. The US puts more people in jail than any other major nation. At more than 600 people per 100,000 in the hoosegow, the US locks up twice as many of its own people as Russia, and five times as many as China. (Soon, we predict, BGT will be used at home to lock up even more people. That was the real significance of Biden’s strange ‘red light speech.’ His aim was to turn his rivals from worthy opponents into “bad guys.”)

As the world’s good guys, we don’t need to leave it to God to determine who goes to Heaven and who goes to Hell. We can decide for ourselves. And now, the press…the intellectuals…the feds…the whole Establishment – have designated a new bad guy du jour: China. Stay tuned…"

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/email

"We're All Mad Here..."

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.

"Oh, you can't help that," said the cat. 

"We're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."

"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.

"You must be," said the cat, "Or you wouldn't have come here."

- Lewis Carroll,

"Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"

Oh, I know, I know, some days...lol

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"We work in the dark. We do what we can to battle the evil that would otherwise destroy us. But if a man's character is his fate, this fight is not a choice but a calling. Yet sometimes the weight of this burden causes us to falter, breaching the frazzled fortress of our mind, allowing the monsters without to turn within. We are left alone staring into the abyss; into the laughing face of madness."

- "Fox Mulder", "The X-Files"

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Strange days indeed...

John Lennon, "Nobody Told Me"